Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
Within the framework XXV Yasinsky (April) International Scientific Conference The former head of the Bank of Russia, professor of the Department of Finance and Credit of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, Sergei Dubinin, gave an honorary report. He spoke about the transformation of the global monetary and financial system and the Russian economy.
As Sergey Dubinin noted, one of the main trends that became noticeable after the pandemic and is observed now is the fragmentation of the global world economy. “This fragmentation today constitutes some stage, a phase of globalization. It was initially understood as deglobalization, complete collapse, but it quickly became clear that the situation is not quite like that,” the speaker noted. Fragmentation leads to a slowdown in international trade, and to an increase in barriers to the movement of goods, services, labor, and restrictions on the spread of technology. These trends are causing concern among many experts.
Fragmentation is very noticeable in the relations between countries. Blocks are being created that are oriented towards the US and China. There are also so-called neutral states, intermediary countries. For example, India or Mexico, they “want to be intermediaries in both trade and financial transactions,” says Sergey Dubinin. “Economic relations are developing more actively within the blocks. Both trade [transactions] and capital movement between the blocks are facing restrictions, in particular tariffs,” he says. At the same time, the latest news about the increase in tariffs by US President Donald Trump is strengthening these trends, the expert notes.
Against the backdrop of events in the global economy, confidence in American securities has declined. “It was a safe haven,” notes Sergei Dubinin. “And that was the advantage of the American financial market system, when even in the conditions of a crisis that began on the US market, US government securities were considered the best insurance asset. And very large amounts of money were directed there.” And in recent years, there has been a noticeable decline in investments in these securities.
“Right now there is an acute phase in the relationship between China and the United States. It can lead to various consequences, both for political and economic life,” the expert notes. And here it is important to understand what position Russia wants to take. “Recently, we have heard a lot of talk about Russian-American joint economic projects,” says Sergey Dubinin. One point of view is that it is better to take the position of an intermediary country than to unilaterally focus on one country.
The former head of the Central Bank also spoke about the state of the Russian financial sector. He noted that despite numerous sanctions, the position of banks remains stable. The volume of net profit of banks in 2024 reached more than 4 trillion rubles. According to him, there are currently just over 300 credit institutions left on the market, and only 35 banks were unprofitable. He recalled that “during the period from 2010 to 2020, 681 banks were closed.”
As a result, according to Sergei Dubinin, a “highly concentrated and fairly stable” system has now emerged. The top ten largest Russian banks, which include systemically important players, account for almost 80% of the banking system’s assets. At the same time, “quality indicators remain quite good.”
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