Source: UNISDR Disaster Risk Reduction
One of the world’s largest islands, located in the tropical south-west Indian Ocean, Madagascar needs new roads, schools, electricity networks, and more to lift large portions of its 30 million population out of poverty. But even as it builds this new infrastructure, its progress remains fragile. Tropical cyclones and other extreme hazard events can wipe out these development gains, and climate change multiplies that threat.
Four cyclones
in 2022 affected or displaced half a million people and flooded over 200 000 hectares of agricultural lands.
Nation-wide impact:
50,000 homes destroyed
10,000 classrooms wrecked
40 roads blocked
The damage
was equal to almost 5% of Madagascar’s GDP, increasing the poverty rate of affected households by 27%.
The challenge is significant. Madagascar is the world’s fourth largest island, and its relatively small population is spread out, much of it in rural hard-to-access areas. Most villages are isolated and they lack access to decent roads, drinking water or electricity, preventing sustainable development and poverty reduction too. Rapid population growth increases the pressure to build new infrastructure fast, but Madagascar must also find new ways to protect its transport networks, energy supplies, water supplies, and more from the growing threat of climate change.
Building resilience into infrastructure will bring significant benefits. Madagascar’s infrastructure currently suffers damage worth roughly USD 100 million each year. Cyclones account for 85 percent of this damage and are expected to increase with climate change.
With that in mind, Madagascar has become one of four countries – together with Bhutan, Chile, and Tonga – to pioneer the Global Methodology for Infrastructure Resilience Review. Developed by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), the methodology helps countries to identify and prioritize strategies that will make their infrastructure more resilient through a five-step approach.
1
Stakeholder mapping
- Key ministries, regulators and operators in infrastructure development
- Cross-sector coordination mechanisms
Review of existing policies and regulations
- Policies and regulations shaping infrastructure resilience
- Integration of disaster risks in national plans and strategies
Identification of vulnerabilities (Stress Testing)
- Data collection on hazards and vulnerabilities
- Multi-hazard resilience testing of infrastructure systems
Principles for resilient infrastructure
- Infrastructure resilience assessment using the UNDRR Resilience Principles
- Identification of resilience-building interventions
Development of an Implementation plan
- Results validation and prioritization
- Implementation plan with assigned responsibilities
The roadmap for infrastructure resilience in Madagascar is a key strategic document, as it outlines a comprehensive action plan aimed at minimising disaster risks in the country,” he adds.
Advancing Infrastructure Resilience in Madagascar
- Developing the plan
-
Developing the plan
The methodology follows five steps: Map institutional governance and identify key stakeholders; Review existing policies and regulations; Detect vulnerabilities through a stress-testing analysis; Assess current resilience through the Principles of Resilient Infrastructure; then Develop an implementation plan and produce a final report.
As part of that process, Madagascar hosted multiple workshops, that were accompanied by an assessment of institutions and regulations, analysis of sector-specific risks, and an evaluation of current practices too.
Countries need access to forward-looking information and for infrastructure systems, this means assessing the risks of interconnected infrastructure systems. The final “Roadmap for Infrastructure Resilience in Madagascar” identified nearly 50 measures to enhance the country’s infrastructure resilience.
The process integrates and complements work by Madagascar’s Cellule de Prévention et d’appui à la Gestion des Urgences (CPGU) to improve construction standards against cyclones, floods, and other hazards. It also brought in a wider range of stakeholders from the disaster risk, climate change, construction and planning, and investment sectors.
“With this new way of looking by zooming out, we have more of an overall vision of everything that makes infrastructure vulnerable,” Randrianandrasana Lila Norolalaina, Head of Disaster Risk Reduction at the Ministry of Education, says.
Together, these stakeholders looked at six specific sectors – transport, energy, water, telecommunications, health and education – analyzing them against ten key hazards. Cyclones account for most of Madagascar’s recorded losses, but floods, rising sea levels, variations in rainfall patterns, and heatwaves also have an impact.
Cascading disasters were central to the analysis, since a failure in one infrastructure sector can spread to others. Electricity failure impacts communication, transportation, and water supply systems, for example. And pumping equipment loses power and is unable to keep floodwaters under control around the capital Antananarivo, then an electricity failure would lead to other disasters, for example. Understanding these interdependencies helps to prevent a chain of failures and thus much bigger crises.
The UNDRR stress testing tool simulated various scenarios and assessed the potential impact on different sectors. It helped decision-makers to understand their vulnerabilities and to analyse the possibilities for cascading disasters. Finally, it concluded that telecommunications and energy were the sectors most likely to trigger further failures, while wastewater management was the most vulnerable to disruptions from elsewhere.
Interdependencies of Functions and Cascading Effects
- Energy
-
Energy
Discussed within the context of resilient infrastructure, energy is also vital for Madagascar’s human development. It is, however, in short supply throughout the country and this shortage prevents the country from industrialising its key sectors, especially farming. Some 80 percent of the workforce is involved with subsistence farming, for example, while failure to industrialise prevents the creation of higher paying jobs. The lack of energy also slows the modernisation of Madagascar’s young mining sector, a major contributor to GDP, through exports of nickel, cobalt, chromium, titanium, and heavy metals.
Madagascar aims to connect 70 percent of its population to electricity by 2030, from just 15 percent at present. For those who are connected, however, power cuts and voltage fluctuations are frequent, causing serious disruptions to daily life and economic development alike. The issue is often acute in rural areas, where just 5 percent of the population is connected.
Stress-testing analysis, Energy
Inadequate maintenance is part of the problem, but cyclones, heavy rains, landslides, and strong winds all lead to widespread interruptions and power outages. Two of six power stations are vulnerable to rising water levels, while earthquakes and cyber-attacks can also damage production. Droughts and fires threaten serious impacts to water supplies. They can therefore limit the production of electricity from hydropower, which accounts for 31 percent of Madagascar’s energy.
Resilience is a vital priority. Part of Madagascar’s resilience plan is to move away from imported fossil fuels towards renewables. Oil and coal, for example, account for 49 and 19 percent respectively of the island’s energy production, but they depend heavily on Madagascar’s transport, which is also vulnerable to storms. Madagascar wants renewables to account for 80 percent of its energy production by 2030, up from 33 percent at present.
Even before the review of infrastructure resilience, Madagascar had already begun to improve its energy infrastructure, through its 2015-2030 New Energy Policy (NPE). One key element of NPE is to integrate disaster risk management into the energy sector. In case of emergency, Madagascar has also developed a contingency plan to ensure continuity of essential services. With support from the World Bank, Madagascar is enhancing its energy sector management and improving service quality.
Despite these initiatives, the infrastructure resilience review highlighted the continued need for Madagascar to strengthen the resilience of its energy infrastructure. While limited finances, insufficient institutional capacity, and lack of maintenance create significant barriers, which all compromise the energy sector’s ability to resist new shocks and crises, the Roadmap includes multiple opportunities to improve its resilience.
These opportunities mainly link to information and data. Stakeholders discussed the need to strengthen and update data for monitoring and evaluation, as well as to request information and disaster risk best practices from private operators in the sector. By mapping the state of energy infrastructure, including an assessment of vulnerability and resilience levels, Madagascar will be better placed to prioritise its interventions.
Following the Global Methodology for Infrastructure Resilience Review, therefore, Madagascar has already begun to work with other partners. The Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA), for example, is working with Madagascar to improve their data through better hazard modelling.
“When we know the state of all our assets, then we will be better able to ensure proper maintenance, keep track of the hotspots, and manage all the gaps.”
- Transport
-
Transport
Made up of four sub-sectors – air, sea, road, and rail – Madagascar’s transport illustrates the country’s challenges effectively too. Even without the natural hazards, Madagascar’s transport networks are limited. To the south, for example, one single trainline connects a region of roughly 100,000 people to the rest of the country. Also in the South, covering 500km by road can take three days.
With limited internal roads and railways, Madagascar uses its air network to connect different parts of the vast country, especially in the rainy season or when humanitarian aid is needed urgently. Its ports are also vital for the country’s economy, exporting vanilla and other agricultural products, together with minerals and seafood products.
Much of this infrastructure is, however, vulnerable to disasters, such as cyclones, cyber-attacks, fire hazards, and even pandemics. Cyclones, landslides, and flooding routinely damage roads and – in the wake of Cyclone Gamane in March 2024 – reconstruction of road infrastructure was set to cost USD 76 million.
International financial institutions, such as the World Bank and European Investment Bank, support Madagascar to recover from cyclone damage and to make their transport infrastructure more resilient. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is supporting the USD 640 million expansion of Toamasina port, the gateway for about 75 percent of Madagascar’s international freight, while the African Development Bank (AfDB) is also considering rehabilitation of the port at Manakara.
Policies on rigorous maintenance, disaster planning, and construction or rehabilitation of new infrastructure, such as Ivato International Airport, will also help Madagascar to strengthen its infrastructure resilience.
Stress-testing analysis, Transportation
However, the Infrastructure Resilience Review brought new insights, enabling Madagascar to prioritise its interventions. Data analysis identified:
5 airports
vulnerable to flooding of up to 3.5 metres
9 of 57
ports vulnerable
16,292 km
roads at risk of landslides
Stakeholders discussed the need to improve regulations and institutions alike, including by incorporating resilience principles. More work is needed on climate adaptation, while Madagascar would also benefit from better engagement with financial institutions and the insurance sector too. Better coordination would improve national adaptation plans and coastal area management.
Stakeholders also discussed the need for more data analysis, preventive maintenance, capacity building, and emergency planning, as well as the need to involve the private sector and facilitate more competition.
One key topic was the importance of resilience norms, especially in the transport sector. How does Madagascar develop these and then ensure compliance? These norms – and stakeholder compliance – are essential in reducing the amount of substandard construction, a major boost for resilience.
“Raising awareness about the importance of norms is an important moment,” Ventsolalaina Ramilison, Head of Disaster Risk Reduction Department at CPGU / Madagascar said. “Now there is just the question of creating and strengthening a monitoring authority.”
- Lessons for other countries
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Lessons for other countries
The Infrastructure Resilience Review represents an important step forward by Madagascar towards infrastructure resilience. Stakeholders hope it will also benefit donors and provide key lessons for other countries.
“Given that donors tend to pay the costs of reconstruction following a disaster in Madagascar, they also benefit when Madagascar reduces the extent and cost of those disasters,” Ventsolalaina Ramilison, Head of Disaster Risk Reduction Department at CPGU / Madagascar says.
“When we can prevent storms from destroying our water supply infrastructure every year, then we can begin to build more sustainably,” she said. “That gives us hope, because we want to escape these endless cycles of recovery.”
Resilient infrastructure is important because it enables and protects sustainable development. All too often, ferocious storms have destroyed donor-financed infrastructure, which means – in other words – that insufficient resilience puts development progress at risk.
Download the full report:
Roadmap for Infrastructure Resilience in Madagascar