Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.
May 23, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z – 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 23 05:36:47 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 230536
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Valid 231200Z – 241200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…
…SUMMARY…
A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and
southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the
main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible
across southeast Florida.
…Central/Southern Plains…
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the
upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the
central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model
guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will
translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks
region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should
encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ
should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but
gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern
AR by 24/12z.
Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat
influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection
corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will
aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will
likely traverse this zone. It’s not entirely clear how each complex
will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially
across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large
hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are
possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue
well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably
sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest
buoyancy.
…South Florida…
Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse
rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today.
Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be
available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once
again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of
generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
.html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home