Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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May 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z – 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 27 05:42:56 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 270542
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025
Valid 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the
southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind
are the primary threats.
…Southern Plains…
Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1
period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream
extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model
guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will
approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery
depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this
feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow
will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing
convection across south central TX should also contribute to this
westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of
this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily
be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop
after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast
Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that
strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are
possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some
increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the
period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the
international border.
…Southeast…
Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX.
This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by
sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS
and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by
mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While
some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer
heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop
along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are
possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters
and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can
not be ruled out.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025
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