Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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May 27, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue May 27 07:21:34 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 270721
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025
Valid 291200Z – 301200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST…
…SUMMARY…
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast.
…Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies…
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the
central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will
likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern
Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with
the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the
afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse
rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for
a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible.
…Southeast…
A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the
Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts
suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast
states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest
convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused
low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a
few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates
become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary
threat.
..Broyles.. 05/27/2025
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