Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 050551
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Valid 061200Z – 071200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.
…Southern Great/High Plains…
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.
The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.
…Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys…
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken
somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and
persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will
develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain
modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate.
Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present
and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated
severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the
large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV,
scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to
northern parts of MS/AL/GA.
..Grams.. 06/05/2025
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