Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Peninsula Michigan
Central and North-Central Minnesota
Northern Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include…
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY…Scattered clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will
likely develop through the remainder of the afternoon and persist
into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a
risk for large hail and severe gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Alexandria MN to 115 miles east of Ironwood MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 513 SEVERE TSTM MI MN WI LS 151955Z – 160300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30SSW AXN/ALEXANDRIA MN/ – 115E IWD/IRONWOOD MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /64NNW RWF – 17NW SAW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT…LON 46129564 47168771 45858771 44829564
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 513 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low ( 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.