Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Kansas
Western and Central Nebraska
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a
front this afternoon into the evening and grow upscale into a linear
cluster. Large hail will be the primary severe hazard this
afternoon before storms increase in coverage and congeal into one or
two linear clusters. Severe gusts will become the primary severe
hazard during the evening as this activity moves east-southeast
across the Watch area.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of Chamberlain SD to 20 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 513…
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 514 SEVERE TSTM KS NE SD 152050Z – 160400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35ENE 9V9/CHAMBERLAIN SD/ – 20SSE MCK/MCCOOK NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /70ESE PIR – 18SSE MCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT…LON 43959696 39919883 39910204 43950038
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 514 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low ( 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.