Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Apr 18, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 18 07:03:04 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 180703
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Valid 201200Z – 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the
Middle Mississippi Valley.
…East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley…
An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will
lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early
Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK
to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the
Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface
low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the
Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate
deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector
ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe
thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe
hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of
supercells and linear segments.
However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast
details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact
which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing
southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite
of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared
to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday
may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better
resolved.
..Leitman.. 04/18/2025
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