Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: Mainfin Bank –
How will the mortgage lending market change in 2025?
Experts’ forecast for issuance mortgage loans in Russia is disappointing – experts expect the worst result since 2016. As expected, in 2025:
the number of executed mortgage agreements will decrease to 800 thousand, which will be 40% lower than last year’s level; the amount of issued loans will amount to 3.7 trillion rubles – a drop of almost 30%; the average bill will increase above 4 million rubles (a year earlier – 3.7 million rubles); an increase in the average payment is expected by 13% – up to 35 thousand rubles per month; the total volume of the banks’ mortgage portfolio, taking into account existing loans, will increase above the 20 trillion ruble mark.
However, the forecast only takes into account the current situation without significant upheavals in the industry – it is based on a key rate of 18-21%: in the presence of shock events, the changes may be even more significant.
Why are mortgage loans being issued in Russia decreasing?
Negative dynamics in the mortgage loan segment have been observed since mid-2024, amid the cancellation of the preferential mortgage program in new buildings. The decrease in demand for housing loans is due to the following factors:
high interest rates, often exceeding 30%; worsening conditions for government-supported programs; tightening regulation of the industry by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; popularity of installment programs from developers – such loans already account for up to 50% of all contracts; continuing growth in housing prices – apartments are becoming less and less affordable.
“It is not profitable for Russians to take out mortgage loans – now many families planning to buy housing prefer to open savings accounts and deposits, expecting a reduction in rates in the industry,” experts emphasize.
Current borrowers have also changed their payment behavior – early mortgage repayment is becoming less and less popular, and by the end of 2025, only 2% of contracts will be closed ahead of schedule. Russians have fewer and fewer incentives to repay loans early, especially against the backdrop of favorable conditions for savings products.
When will demand for mortgages among Russians recover?
It is definitely not worth expecting even a partial recovery of the industry in the coming months. As the survey results show, most Russians are ready to take out a mortgage if market rates fall to 15-18% per annum. Every fifth borrower in the Russian Federation is willing to consider getting a loan even at 20%, and every tenth citizen is waiting for a reduction to 10%.
However, there are no prerequisites for such a serious revision of the conditions on the part of banks no – the regulator has been keeping the key rate at the current level for several meetings in a row. The transition to easing monetary policy is expected in the second half of 2025, provided that inflation does not exceed the forecast values, but even in this case, one should not expect a sharp reduction in the rate.
14:35 04/29/2025
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