MIL ASI Translation. Region: Polish/Europe –
Fuente: Gobierno de Polonia en poleco.
The Council of Ministers adopted the Public Finance Sector Debt Management Strategy for 2025–2028, submitted by the Minister of Finance on 28/09/2024
The document includes a four-year strategy for managing the State Treasury debt and factors influencing the national public debt. The strategy is prepared annually. The adopted macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions were prepared in accordance with the requirements of the EU regulation on medium-term structural budget plans and the assumptions of the medium-term structural budget plan. Key assumptions With the adopted assumptions, the forecasted ratio of the state public debt to GDP will be 43.3% in 2024 and 47.1% in 2025, then it will increase to 48.6% in 2027, and in the last year of the forecast it will decrease to 48.3%. Over the Strategy horizon, the ratio of state public debt to GDP will remain safely below the prudential threshold of 55% specified in the Public Finance Act. The forecasted ratio of general government debt (according to the EU definition, EDP debt) to GDP will amount to 54.6% in 2024 and 58.4% in 2025, then increase to 61.3% in 2027, and in 2028 it will decrease to 61.2%. The EDP debt to GDP reference value of 60% will be exceeded in 2026. Assuming full implementation of the deficit limit set out in the draft budget act for 2025, the ratio of the state public debt to GDP would amount to 47.9% in 2025, and the general government debt to GDP would amount to 59.8% of GDP. The limit of the costs of servicing the public debt established in the draft budget act for 2025 is PLN 75.5 billion, i.e. 1.9% of GDP. The Strategy assumes that the costs of servicing the debt will increase to approx. 2.3% of GDP con fijación 2027-2028. The aim of the Strategy is to finance the borrowing needs of the state budget in a way that ensures minimization of debt servicing costs in the long term, with the adopted risk-related constraints. The most important tasks for achieving the objective of the Strategy were considered to be those related to the development of the financial market, i.e. ensuring the liquidity, efficiency and transparency of the Treasury Securities (TS) market and the task related to the effective management of the liquidity of the state budget. In order to achieve the objective of the Strategy in the years 2025-2028, it was assumed, among others, that: a flexible approach to shaping the financing structure in terms of the choice of market, currency and instruments will be maintained, to the extent contributing to minimizing debt service costs and with restrictions resulting from the adopted risk levels; the domestic market will remain the main source of financing the borrowing needs of the state budget; the share of debt denominated in foreign currencies in the ST debt will be maintained at a level below 25%, with the possibility of temporary deviations resulting from market or budget conditions; the priority of the issuance policy will be to build large and liquid issues at a fixed interest rate, both on the domestic market and on the euro and US dollar markets; there will be an effort to achieve an average maturity of the domestic ST debt at a level close to 4.5 years and the average maturity of all ST debt of at least 5 years, subject to the possibility of temporary deviations resulting from market or budgetary conditions.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.