Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 4, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 4 07:30:16 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 040730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025
Valid 061200Z – 071200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night.
…Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys…
Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will
overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern
Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be
initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance
generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast
across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should
enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths
downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15
percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern
AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS
outflow(s) will reach.
Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the
overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears
conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of
large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In
addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into
the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further
enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A
similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible.
The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the
potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and
southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance
are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for
that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For
now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for
upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period
MCS are likely better resolved.
..Grams.. 06/04/2025
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