Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 10, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 10 17:46:55 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 101746
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Valid 111200Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA…THE UPPER MIDWEST/CORN BELT…AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains, the Upper
Midwest/Corn Belt, as well as Texas to western Louisiana.
…Central to southern Texas…
Ahead of a weak mid-level trough, moderate instability should
develop over much of central into eastern/southern Texas with a
moist surface air mass beneath seasonably cool mid-level
temperatures. However, specifics are complicated by the potential of
lingering early-day convection and outflows. Some guidance would
suggest that convection/MCV-related enhancement to the flow field
may occur and linger much of the day, a scenario in which a Slight
Risk could be warranted into the Day 1 time frame pending corridors
of more certain destabilization across central/east Texas. This flow
enhancement could influence the potential for supercells and
possibly a tornado risk within a moist environment. Scattered
storms, including some clusters, can otherwise be expected with hail
and wind possible.
…Upper Midwest/Corn Belt…
A west/east-oriented stationary front will exist across this region,
with strong heating aiding moderate to locally strong
destabilization along and south of the boundary. The glancing
influence of a shortwave trough may contribute to storm development
as the boundary layer otherwise destabilizes Wednesday afternoon.
Effective shear of 30-35 kt should generally exist near the front,
potentially allowing for a few supercells and more prevalent
multicells. Scattered storms producing hail/damaging wind appear
most probable during the late afternoon and evening, progressing
eastward out of Iowa toward the Illinois/Wisconsin border vicinity.
A relatively narrow/confined Slight Risk could ultimately be
warranted in the Day 1 time frame.
…Northern Rockies to Northern High Plains…
Storms are expected to develop relatively early in the day from
eastern Oregon across Idaho as a shortwave trough moves over the
region. Scattered storms will develop and spread quickly eastward
into parts of Wyoming and Montana, with areas of strong outflow
expected. Scattered severe gusts may occur. Overall deep-layer shear
appears most favorable from southern Idaho into western Wyoming,
resulting in a few cells capable of hail as well as strong wind
gusts. Additional severe storm development is expected by Wednesday
late afternoon/early evening into the northern High Plains including
near/east of the Big Horns.
..Guyer.. 06/10/2025
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