Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 11 05:57:09 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 110557
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Valid 121200Z – 131200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS…
…SUMMARY…
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas.
…Synopsis…
The stronger flow aloft will remain over northern portions of the
CONUS on Thursday, with a low-amplitude wave moving across the
northern Plains. South of there, a weak upper low will move from TX
toward the lower to middle MS Valley late.
At the surface, a boundary will stretch roughly from SD eastward to
the Mid Atlantic, with a large area of mid to upper 60s F across
much of the plains and Midwest. A weak is forecast over southwest
NE, with an inverted trough extending northeastward toward southern
MN.
…Northern Plains…
Early day rain/thunderstorms will shift north across eastern SD and
southern MN during the day in a zone of warm advection, with air
mass recovery to the southwest across NE and western KS/eastern CO.
Strong heating and southeast surface winds will yield storms moving
off the Front Range, with locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Robust convection will form within the surface trough over NE,
extending into southeast SD/western IA/southwest MN as well, with
more of a variety of storms expected. Both damaging winds and hail
are expected. Shear will be marginal but an MCS cannot be ruled out
overnight.
…Much of southern/central/eastern TX…
Substantial moisture and instability will again develop with 70s F
dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft. Clusters of storms are likely
to be ongoing roughly along or east of I-35 much of the day, and
areas of strong wind gusts may occur. West of there, stronger
heating will occur over southwest TX. Shear will be weak but
multicellular convection capable of marginal hail or localized
downbursts may occur.
..Jewell.. 06/11/2025
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