Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 16, 2025
Updated: Mon Jun 16 08:57:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Thu, Jun 19, 2025 – Fri, Jun 20, 2025
D7
Sun, Jun 22, 2025 – Mon, Jun 23, 2025
D5
Fri, Jun 20, 2025 – Sat, Jun 21, 2025
D8
Mon, Jun 23, 2025 – Tue, Jun 24, 2025
D6
Sat, Jun 21, 2025 – Sun, Jun 22, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160855
SPC AC 160855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Valid 191200Z – 241200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5…
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on
Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place.
Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front
across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take
place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and
steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during
the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be
in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within
this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be
possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon.
Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately
unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage
due to the presence of the ridge.
…Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8…
Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across
the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure
dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough
is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into
the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still
spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe
threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday.
On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there
is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario.
..Broyles.. 06/16/2025
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