Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 1311
Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Areas affected…central MN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 161825Z – 162030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms should intensify ahead of an eastward-moving
surface cyclone, starting in west-central Minnesota. A few
supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes are possible. A watch will likely be needed with
uncertainty on southern extent of the threat.
DISCUSSION…Initial low-topped convection has increased near the
southeast ND/west-central MN border area in vicinity of a surface
cyclone. A corridor of greater insolation persists ahead of this low
into the Brainerd Lakes area, northwest of regenerative elevated
convection across east-central MN to northeast IA. This should yield
further low-level destabilization and increasing moderate buoyancy
into late afternoon. While 12Z CAMs largely underplayed the morning
elevated convection, the RRFS has consistently signaled the
surface-based convection may remain largely confined to near the
surface low/warm front across central MN. Low-level shear is modest,
but a belt of stronger 700-mb winds attendant to the shortwave
impulse should support a few supercells in an emerging cluster that
spreads east into early evening.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/16/2025
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DLH…MPX…FGF…
LAT…LON 46899636 47209562 47399446 47159349 46869297 46519268
46079291 45669405 45579426 45459485 45389538 45389596
45819613 46349643 46899636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY…85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…1.50-2.50 IN
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