Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jun 19, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 19 00:52:49 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 190052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Valid 190100Z – 191200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, will spread across
portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region this evening. Isolated
severe thunderstorms will also continue across portions of the Red
River region of southern Oklahoma and North Texas.
…01z Update…
Notable mid-level height falls will spread across the lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight in response to a short-wave trough that
will advance into MI-IL by the end of the period. Synoptically, LLJ
is strengthening across the OH Valley ahead of the main surface
front that extends from Lake MI-central IL-central MO. While the
primary squall line has surged well ahead of the front into central
OH/KY, scattered convection is gradually increasing along the front
across MO/western IL. This activity may continue to increase as the
boundary surges southeast later tonight. Otherwise, the lead squall
line is expected to propagate into the upper Ohio Valley with an
attendant threat of damaging winds.
Farther southwest into the southern Plains, 00z soundings from both
OUN and FWD exhibit minimal CINH with seasonally high PW values and
strong MLCAPE (>3000 J/kg). Both soundings have adequate deep-layer
shear for organized updrafts, but the Red River corridor should only
experience weak low-level warm advection through the overnight
period. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be the most likely
scenario given the weak forcing along this portion of the boundary.
..Darrow.. 06/19/2025
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