Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 20, 2025
Updated: Fri Jun 20 08:45:02 UTC 2025
.
D4
Mon, Jun 23, 2025 – Tue, Jun 24, 2025
D7
Thu, Jun 26, 2025 – Fri, Jun 27, 2025
D5
Tue, Jun 24, 2025 – Wed, Jun 25, 2025
D8
Fri, Jun 27, 2025 – Sat, Jun 28, 2025
D6
Wed, Jun 25, 2025 – Thu, Jun 26, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200842
SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025
Valid 231200Z – 281200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…D4/Monday…
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern
Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday,
along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the
eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great
Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer
flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong
instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along
the front during the afternoon and evening.
Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop
across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to
the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal
for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday.
…D5/Tuesday…
Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold
front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New
England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong
instability could support severe-storm potential along the front
during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is
currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper
ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be
displaced well north of the front.
The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with
most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to
weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest.
However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible
near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central
Plains as a warm front through the day.
…D6/Wednesday – D8/Friday…
Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding
the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same
general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper
ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the
absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe
potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively
influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and
Great Lakes.
..Dean.. 06/20/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT