Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –
Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News
Chapter 2. Opportunities and Challenges in China-Central Asia Cooperation
At present, China is comprehensively promoting the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization. Regardless of the changes in the international situation, China will unswervingly adhere to the policy of opening up to the outside world.
— Chairman of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping
2.1 New Opportunities as a Result of China’s Opening Up
With global economic growth slowing, especially since the beginning of this year, the international situation is characterized by growing instability and mounting contradictions. The strengthening of unilateral actions and trade protectionism, as well as the destruction of international production and logistics chains, are seriously undermining the stability of world trade and calling into question the prospects for further global economic cooperation.
In the face of a complex and tense external environment, China is relentlessly focused on its own development and firmly promotes a high level of openness to the outside world. In this process, China has always regarded the Central Asian region as an important area of its good-neighborly diplomacy, striving to expand mutually beneficial cooperation with countries in the region. This not only brings stability to the Central Asian economy, but also serves as a model of peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation for the world.
China is a major developing country that has made a major contribution to global economic growth for many years. China’s gross domestic product exceeded RMB 130 trillion in 2024, and its contribution to global economic growth remained at around 30%, the highest among the world’s major economies. As the world’s second-largest economy and one of the largest sources of investment, China has enormous market potential. In steadily advancing the Chinese model of modernization, China not only shares the fruits of its development with countries in the region and around the world to boost the global economy, but also provides new theoretical guidelines and practical models for the modernization of developing and emerging economies.
China’s modernization model emphasizes high-quality growth based on innovation, green transition, and balanced development. China has steadily increased investment in scientific research and technological innovation, demonstrating impressive results that open up new opportunities for Central Asia. For example, the Chinese company Huawei has established a digital hub in Kazakhstan, introducing advanced ICT infrastructure. This has laid a solid foundation for the development of new forms of business such as e-commerce and mobile payments. China’s experience in renewable energy, combating desertification, reclaiming saline and degraded lands, and water-saving irrigation is no less valuable for the countries of the region. Following the principle of “teaching how to fish, not just giving it to”, China is ready to continue to facilitate the construction of large solar and wind power plants in Central Asia, thereby contributing to the optimization of the energy structure, ecological restoration, and sustainable green development of the region.
Against the backdrop of increasing global protectionism, China has firmly maintained its high-level opening-up policy, serving as a “stabilizing anchor” and “driving force” of the global economy. The negative list for foreign investment has been reduced from the original 190 items to 29 at the national level and 27 in pilot free trade zones. In the manufacturing sector, restrictions have been completely lifted, creating favorable conditions for multinational companies investing in China. Enterprises from Central Asian countries are actively taking advantage of these opportunities. They are opening production facilities in China or entering into trade cooperation, gaining access to the huge Chinese market and developing economies of scale. The China International Import Expo, China Export and Import Fair (Canton Fair), International Silk Road Expo and other major events provide companies from Central Asian countries with high-quality platforms to showcase their products and enter new markets. For example, through these platforms, Uzbek hand-woven carpets, nuts and dried fruits from Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian products can be offered directly to global buyers, which will help increase the recognition of these products and expand their share in international markets. In addition, this strengthens the integration of Central Asian countries into international production and logistics chains.
The Chinese economy maintains a solid foundation, has many competitive advantages, is highly resilient, and has significant domestic potential. The trend toward long-term sustainable growth remains unchanged. China has all the industries included in the United Nations classification, and its production system is complete, flexible, and developed. This allows it to meet a wide range of production and cooperation needs. In addition, the economic structures of China and Central Asian countries are largely complementary, which creates broad opportunities for coordination in industry, logistics, and the development of supply chains between the two sides.
In the energy sector, Central Asian countries are important suppliers of resources, and China has significant advantages in the exploration and development of deposits, the production of energy equipment and the processing of energy resources. The parties have all the necessary conditions for deepening cooperation at all stages of the energy cycle: from the exploration and production of oil and gas to the construction and operation of pipelines, the processing of raw materials and the production of petrochemical products. Such a comprehensive partnership will make it possible to form a complete and efficient energy chain.
2.2 Potential for cooperation in the field of green economy and digital technologies
Against the backdrop of the accelerating new scientific and technological revolution, industrial transformation and deepening regional interaction mechanisms, China and the Central Asian countries are actively developing cooperation in new promising areas.
Green cooperation as a key to sustainable development. China and the five Central Asian countries have similar approaches and share common goals in the field of green development. In recent years, stable political ties, active economic interaction and a strong partnership in the traditional energy sector have created a solid foundation for in-depth cooperation in the field of ecological transition. Central Asia is rich in water resources, which are mainly concentrated in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In Tajikistan alone, the technical hydropower potential is estimated at about 55 gigawatts, which is more than half of the total potential of all of Central Asia. Significant wind energy resources are concentrated in Kazakhstan, but their development is still at an early stage, with an installed capacity of only about 1.2 GW. This indicates enormous potential for further development of the sector. In addition, the region has extensive reserves of strategically important minerals: cobalt, lithium, silicon, tungsten and other elements necessary for the production of clean energy. These resources have significant potential and can form a solid foundation for the formation of new green value chains.
Against the background of the growing support of the green transition from the countries of Central Asia, the increasing demand for electricity and the growth of the need for the so -called “transitional minerals”, China is ready to provide the region with the necessary investments, technologies and infrastructure solutions. For many years, China has retained leading positions in the world in the established capacities in the field of renewable energy – in hydropower, solar and wind generation. At the same time, the country is actively promoting the modernization of the economy, based on high environmental standards. The China Energy International Group Corporation in 2024 commissioned a solar power plant with a capacity of 1 GW in Uzbekistan, the project was completely connected to energy networks. In Kazakhstan, China implements projects in the field of hydraulic and wind energy with a total installed capacity of more than 1000 MW. China has not only rich practical experience in the field of renewable energy, but also advanced technologies, competitive equipment, as well as a full -functional industry chain in the field of clean generation. This enables the Chinese side to provide the Central Asian countries with comprehensive technical and engineering solutions. Both sides can expand cooperation at all stages of the energy chain: from design and supply to the construction and operation of facilities. It is also important to develop new forms of partnership, combining investment and industrial interaction. This will contribute to the modernization and intellectualization of the “green” infrastructure of Central Asian countries, and will also bring Sino-Central Asian cooperation in the environmental sphere to a deeper, stable level.
In the area of humanitarian ties, the number of sister city pairs between China and the five Central Asian countries has exceeded 100. Thanks to the simplification of the visa regime and the increase in the number of direct flights between China and the Central Asian countries, new opportunities are opening up for deepening ties between peoples. China and the countries of the region have a rich historical heritage and unique cultural environment, and their tourism resources complement each other. This creates the preconditions for expanding the joint tourism market. With the deepening and practical development of cooperation in the field of education, students from Central Asia are getting more and more opportunities to study at Chinese universities. In accordance with the current development needs of the countries of the region and the areas of bilateral cooperation, new “Lu Ban Workshops” will be opened in Central Asia – sites specializing in the training of technical specialists. Such cooperation in the field of vocational education will help bring bilateral relations to a new level, deepen cultural exchanges and strengthen mutual understanding between peoples.
Digital cooperation as a driver of economic development in Central Asia. In recent years, the Central Asian countries have been consistently promoting digital development strategies, focusing on expanding the coverage of mobile payments, actively developing e-commerce and digital finance, as well as comprehensive economic diversification. Against the backdrop of steady growth in GDP per capita and a high proportion of youth (over 60%) in the Central Asian countries, consumer demand is growing rapidly. The regional market is confidently moving from satisfying basic needs to focusing on higher-quality consumption. The digital economy is demonstrating rapid growth. In particular, the Kazakhstani platform Kaspi has about 13.5 million active users per month, covering up to 70% of the country’s population. In Uzbekistan, the penetration of mobile payments has increased from 12% to 58% in three years. These dynamics confirm the accelerated digital transformation. It is estimated that over the next five years, the e-commerce market in Central Asia will exceed US$30 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 28%, which clearly demonstrates the high potential of the region’s digital sector.
Against the background of digital modernization of the China -Europe route, expanding foreign warehouse capacities and logistics networks, as well as as part of the joint initiative of the “digital silk road of the 21st century”, the “China -Central Asia” mechanism and the Shanghai organization of cooperation are actively developing the joint activities of China and Central Asia in the field of cross -border electronic commerce and digital economy. Today, almost 300 companies from Central Asia have already entered Chinese electronic trade platforms, and Chinese enterprises are actively entering regional platforms, including Kaspi in Kazakhstan. On the rise, a new form of business activity is the “Electronic commerce + cross-border Livestream” model, the volume of annual transactions of which has already exceeded 1 billion yuan. According to data for 2022, the volume of cross -border electronic trade between China and Central Asian countries increased by 95%. Both sides accelerated the exit of high -quality goods into each other’s markets. However, despite the rapidly growing demand for digital services, the regions of Central Asia are faced with a number of restrictions, including the uneven level of digitalization, insufficient development of digital infrastructure and logistics, and a lag in the regulation of digital technologies and finance. Under these conditions, China and Central Asia countries have broad prospects for cooperation in the following key areas: coordination of the standards of cross-border data exchange, improving the digital business environment, joint construction of regional calculation and payment networks, optimizing payment processes, accelerating the creation of digital infrastructure and international logistics components. The complex promotion of these initiatives will contribute to the rapid growth of cross -border electronic trade and the long -term development of the digital economy in the region.
Agricultural cooperation: a path to mutual benefit. Agriculture is a key industry for both China and the Central Asian countries. It also occupies an important place in the structure of the China-Central Asia partnership. At a video summit dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the five Central Asian countries, Chinese President Xi Jinping said: “China is ready to open its super-large market to Central Asian countries, increase the import of high-quality goods and agricultural products from the region, continue to hold the China-Central Asia Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum, and strive to ensure that bilateral trade turnover reaches 70 billion US dollars by 2030.” There is a high degree of complementarity between China and the countries of the region in the structure of agricultural production and broad prospects for market interaction. Thus, the volume of agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries grew from $69 million in 2001 to $2.875 billion in 2023, an increase of more than 40 times.
Against the backdrop of the change of economic drivers and the new wave of the scientific and technical revolution, China and Central Asian countries, based on a strong base of previous interaction, are actively exploring ways to build a new model of agrarian partnership and seek to reveal its new development potential. The development of green agricultural production on technology opens up broad prospects. China and the countries of the region have already created a number of key cooperation platforms, including the agricultural base of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Central Asian Center for Agrarian Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. These initiatives are the basis for deepening scientific and technological cooperation in the field of agriculture. China has a developed agrarian scientific base and obvious technological advantages in dry agriculture, modern methods of soil processing, sphere of water -saving irrigation systems, landfilling of salt marshes, protecting plants from diseases and pests. All these technologies can significantly increase the productivity and stability of the agricultural sector in Central Asia, as well as contribute to the energy transition in agriculture. In addition, with accelerating penetration of digital solutions in the region, new horizons are opened for “smart” agriculture. According to forecasts, by 2025, more than 2 million devices of the Internet of things will be used in the agricultural sector of Central Asia, and the digital agricultural market will reach 3 billion US dollars. The development of cross -border electronic trade in agricultural products, as well as the use of large data technologies, cloud computing and other digital tools for building digital agrarian trade and relevant applications, opens up new opportunities for regional agricultural food chains, creating added cost and agricultural trade. This will increase the stability of food supplies in the region and significantly increase income from the agricultural sector. In the future, further strengthening of agricultural cooperation between China and Central Asian countries will not only become an effective tool for increasing the level of agricultural technologies, transition from traditional to modern agriculture and ensure national food security, but also a key step towards activating transboundary exchange of scientific and technical resources and achieving sustainable development goals.
The potential of the cultural and tourist industry requires further implementation. Humanitarian exchanges have always been an integral part of cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia. They serve as a strong social basis for the development of bilateral relations. Currently, interaction in the field of tourism enters into a new stage, a set of favorable factors opens up additional opportunities for expanding partnerships in the cultural and tourist sphere. Political incentives are gradually bringing results, China and five countries of Central Asia in stages are in stages visa -free regime, which significantly reduces barriers for mutual trips. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other states of the region also activate efforts to simplify tourism procedures and increase investments in the tourism infrastructure, increasing the attractiveness of their directions. The mechanisms of cross -border cooperation are becoming more mature. At the first summit “China -Central Asia”, initiative to strengthen the institutional basis of tourist interaction, to jointly develop cross -border routes and create an “Alliance on tourist cooperation between Xinjiang and Central Asia” to integrate regional resources and combine efforts. In parallel, both “soft” and “tough” interconnectedness are strengthened. Chinese airlines are actively developing a route network in the direction of Central Asia, flights from Urumchi, Beijing, Sian and Cunde are already connecting large Chinese cities with the capitals of the countries of the region. The launch of humanitarian and tourist railway routes focused on traveling to Central Asia is also being promoted. Tourist cooperation between China and Central Asia is distinguished by pronounced specificity and a high degree of complementarity. The parties together contribute to the revival and prosperity of the silk path, relying on deep historical ties and cultural kinship. Rich nature and a unique cultural landscape are made by China and Central Asia countries with mutually attractive tourist destinations. The growth of market demand and innovation in cultural and tourist products also contribute to strengthening interaction. Electronic trading floors and social networks become key channels for promoting tourism services and cultural initiatives, more and more involving the young generation in participation in international music festivals, gastronomic forums and cross-border shopping and entertainment centers, thereby contributing to the expansion of humanitarian ties and folk diplomacy.
2.3 Regional cooperation as a factor of geo-economic expansion
Central Asia is located at the strategic center of the Eurasian continent and has historically served as a hub of the Silk Road, connecting trade and cultural flows between the East and West. In the new era, regional cooperation between China and Central Asian countries has continued to deepen through the China-Central Asia mechanism, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This has greatly enhanced the geo-economic advantages of Central Asian countries and, through improved connectivity, industrial coordination and multilateral cooperation, has impacted regions such as the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the Middle East, South Asia and the Balkans, forming a vast economic network connecting the Eurasian continent. This spatial extension effect is transforming the economic geography of the region and providing Central Asian countries with a strategic opportunity to integrate into the global economy, bringing a new driving force to the prosperity of Eurasia.
Expanding the Geography of Interconnectivity. Cooperation between China and Central Asian countries through infrastructure development and the modernization of logistics networks has significantly strengthened Central Asia’s position as a key transportation hub on the Eurasian continent, extending this advantage to the wider region. The launch of the direct multimodal China-Europe express route across the Caspian Sea marked the transition of China-Central Asian cooperation from a traditional bilateral trade corridor to a multi-format transportation network covering the Caspian and Black Seas, as well as the Balkans. This turns Central Asia into an important transit hub for Chinese goods to reach the markets of Europe and the Middle East. The start of construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, connecting Kashgar, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, helps reduce logistics costs for Central Asian countries and opens up the prospect of integration with the logistics networks of the Middle East and South Asia, forming a transportation corridor linking West Asia, South Asia and Central Asia.
Interregional coordination within the framework of industry networks. The cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia in the format of industry coordination is gradually building a large -scale economic network covering the entire Eurasian continent. This interaction brings to the states of the region significant geo -economic dividends, strengthening their positions in the global economy. In the energy sector, key projects were the construction of the China -Central Asia gas pipeline and the China -Kazakhstan oil pipeline. These infrastructure initiatives not only contribute to the diversification of export routes for the countries of Central Asia, but thanks to the transfer of technologies and expanding the production and logistics chains, they also bring benefits to the Caspian region and the Middle East. An indicative example is the modernization of the oil refinery in Shymkent, which made it possible to establish the production of high -octane fuel. This product not only covers internal needs, but is also exported through the Transkaspian transport corridor to the countries of the Black Sea region and to the Balkans. The expansion of the energy chain increases the export potential of Central Asia and allows it to strengthen her position in the global energy market. The increasing importance of the digital economy and cross -border electronic commerce also helps to expand the geography of industry interaction. Such formats open up new sales channels, including the release of high -quality agricultural products from Central Asia into the markets of South Asia and the Middle East using Chinese electronic trading platforms.
Global Significance of the Region’s Geoeconomic Transformation. China-Central Asia cooperation, which spans the entire Eurasian space, gives the Central Asian countries a new, more significant global geoeconomic significance. First of all, this partnership brings qualitative changes to the economic geography of central Eurasia. Thanks to deepening interaction, the countries of the region are gradually transforming from a traditional geopolitical “buffer zone” into a strategic hub of global production and logistics chains. Central Asia has the potential to become a key logistics hub connecting China, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, as well as gain broad opportunities for industrial modernization and the development of new industries oriented towards foreign markets.
Secondly, this cooperation will significantly strengthen the economic resilience and international influence of the Central Asian countries. Thanks to diversified development in the energy, agriculture and digital economy sectors, the countries of the region will be able to expand their presence in various sectors of foreign trade, reduce dependence on individual markets or raw material exports and thereby increase resilience to foreign economic risks.
Third, this cooperation opens up new opportunities for the broader involvement of the countries of the Global South in geo-economic processes. In particular, the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor creates favorable conditions for states such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, allowing them to integrate more closely into the Chinese-Central Asian economic space. At the same time, Pakistan and Afghanistan can take advantage of the expanding logistics network formed within the framework of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project to gain access to Central Asian markets. The geo-economic spread effect of such initiatives not only strengthens the positions of the Central Asian countries, but also gives new impetus to the development of interconnectedness and common prosperity of the entire Eurasian space. Thus, the global significance of the formation of a community of common destiny of China and Central Asia is realized.
2.4 Risks and challenges in the areas of development and security
Despite notable achievements in cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, this process faces a number of serious risks and challenges. In the development sphere, these are primarily external threats associated with the strengthening of unilateral actions and trade protectionism. In the security sphere, non-traditional threats are of particular concern.
2.4.1 Growing risks of unilateral actions and protectionism amid weak global economic recovery
The rise of unilateralism and trade protectionism poses serious challenges to the economic stability of Central Asian countries and the sustainability of the China-Central Asian partnership. The introduction of higher customs duties, the creation of trade barriers and the use of technological sanctions by individual states undermine the stability of the global economy and disrupt the normal functioning of international production and supply chains. Although the volume of direct trade between the five Central Asian countries and leading Western economies remains relatively low, the impact of global economic fluctuations on the region is difficult to overestimate. According to Thanos Arvanitis, Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, a further escalation of international trade tensions could lead to a slowdown in the GDP growth rates of the Central Asian countries.
Fluctuations in international markets have a direct impact on the export-oriented economies of Central Asian countries, especially in the energy, mining and agriculture sectors. In the context of the global economic downturn and declining demand for raw materials, the countries of the region may face a significant reduction in export revenues, especially from oil and cotton supplies. This, in turn, will limit the opportunities for reinvestment of export earnings in national production chains and limit the potential for domestic economic reproduction.
Trade wars and unilateral sanctions pose a serious threat to the investment climate of Central Asian countries. Some states resort to the practice of secondary sanctions, seeking to limit normal mechanisms of economic and trade interaction between countries and their partners. At the same time, the volatility of global financial markets puts pressure on the exchange rates of the countries in the region. The devaluation of national currencies leads to higher import prices, a decrease in solvency and, as a result, limits opportunities for foreign economic cooperation in such priority areas as infrastructure and energy.
The restructuring of global supply chains caused by unilateral actions has a negative impact on the logistics and trade network of Central Asian countries. Connectivity projects such as the China-Europe Railway Express and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor have contributed to the transformation of Central Asia into a key logistics hub in Eurasia. However, some countries, by introducing barriers in the form of technical standards and restrictions in logistics, seek to weaken this advantage, increasing the logistics costs of China-Central Asia cooperation. Such economic risks threaten the export potential and investment climate of Central Asian countries and pose challenges to the stable operation of joint projects between China and Central Asia.
2.4.2 Increase in non-traditional threats
Central Asia has long been vulnerable to a wide range of non-traditional security threats, including terrorism and extremism, drug trafficking and transnational crime, cyber risks, and environmental challenges related to climate change. In the context of growing interdependence and regional connectivity, China and Central Asian countries should step up joint efforts to develop coordinated responses to effectively address emerging threats and enhance security and stability in the region.
Combating the threats of terrorism and extremism. Central Asia borders Afghanistan, where the terrorist groups Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and the East Turkestan Movement are currently actively operating in close cooperation with each other. Individual terrorists have infiltrated or “returned” to Central Asian countries, posing a serious threat to regional peace and security. At the sixth China-Central Asian Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in April 2025, the two sides jointly reaffirmed their determination to strengthen regional and international security and jointly combat the “three evil forces”. China expressed support for the Central Asian countries’ aspiration to deepen cooperation with Afghanistan, jointly counter terrorist threats, and promote Afghanistan’s integration into the regional economic space in order to eliminate the conditions conducive to terrorism.
Combating drug trafficking, transnational crime and ensuring cybersecurity. Central Asia remains an important transit hub for transnational drug smuggling. In recent years, large consignments of illegally transported narcotics have been repeatedly detected in the region. Within the framework of the mechanisms of meetings of the ministers of foreign affairs, internal affairs and public security, China and the Central Asian countries have repeatedly confirmed their firm position and readiness to cooperate in the fight against drugs. The establishment of the Regional Center for Combating Drugs of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Dushanbe was an important step towards deepening joint efforts to counter this threat and significantly strengthened multilateral cooperation. In the field of cybersecurity, against the backdrop of the rapid development of the digital economy, the region has seen an increase in cybercrime. In Kazakhstan and other countries, there are cases of data leaks from electronic trading platforms and phishing attacks, which indicates the need to further strengthen the cybersecurity infrastructure and improve digital regulation mechanisms.
Combating climate change and environmental threats. The Central Asian countries face protracted and complex environmental challenges. The Aral Sea environmental crisis has led to large-scale land degradation, which has imposed a double constraint on agriculture in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the form of progressive desertification and soil salinization. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Mudflows and floods are increasingly common in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and recurrent droughts are observed in the transboundary Ili River basin. These circumstances require greater investment by the countries of the region in climate regulation, environmental protection, and the transfer and implementation of appropriate technologies. At the same time, active work is needed to create both physical and institutional infrastructure for the efficient allocation of transboundary water resources, which will increase the resilience of the region to climate and environmental risks. /follows/