Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –
© Mikhail Varushchev / Roscongress Foundation
HSE Academic Director Yaroslav Kuzminov spoke at the SPIEF-2025 session “In Search of New Sources of Growth: Is a Different Model of Global Financial and Trade Architecture Possible?” The discussion was built around processes in the global economy related to the strengthening of multipolarity and the increasing role of new centers of global growth — states of the Global South and East. The participants discussed the potential and possibilities of a new model of international interaction.
The global economy is often viewed as a dual system consisting of two large blocs, currently led by the United States and China. However, the world is much more complex, noted Yaroslav Kuzminov.
“The collective West is trying to preserve itself as a single market system with single institutions, offering them to the rest of the world, but its foundation – free trade and unconditional protection of private property – is now being subjected to crushing blows from national and bloc protectionism. On the other hand, China, with all its economic and technological power, cannot act as the leader of the second world, it cannot gather around itself, as the United States did in its time or the Soviet Union did, other countries, because it is not free,” he said.
The HSE academic director explained that American and Soviet leadership was based on two pillars: basic defense spending and economic preferences for allies. Now, countries are creating their own economies that are resilient to external influences. This implies the development of domestic production and the diversification of export markets. But this is not enough for sustainable economic growth, especially in the context of the global technological revolutions that are currently taking place.
“The future is very uncertain, it is very difficult to make forecasts. If earlier the source of uncertainty was only future technologies, today it is geopolitical ruptures and geopolitical unions,” noted Yaroslav Kuzminov.
In his opinion, the key argument for future technological power and future economic power is R
“The problem of the center and the periphery arises, and this problem can only be solved by an extremely politically complex pooling of resources, pooling the efforts of different countries, which requires a degree of trust and a level of awareness of the common interest that, in my opinion, is simply impossible to achieve now. In these conditions, almost all technological innovations are developed within national frameworks, and this is where the problem of the “golden nail” arises. The “golden nail” is the problem of a deficit in the scale of the market. We can offer any breakthrough things, but if our market is limited to hundreds of millions of people and we compete with companies that have a market of billions of people, we will still have a “golden nail”. Therefore, it is necessary to single out those companies, those technological areas that correspond to the scale of the politically accessible market, and in other cases talk about localizing transnational companies in their sales markets, setting requirements for these companies to operate in national markets. I would call this the internal rooting of transnational companies ready to work with national jurisdictions,” says Yaroslav Kuzminov.
At the same time, he noted that completely new solutions are not in the sphere of technology, the market is growing not only due to them. First of all, this is logistics: logistics chains have changed, two political zones of rupture have formed between the EU and Russia and in the Middle East. In these conditions, opportunities arise for countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam and India, which act as trade hubs.
The most important elements of global changes are also related to the human capital of the golden billion countries, the HSE scientific director said. If in the countries of the collective West the share of the middle class is decreasing due to the share of families requiring state support, including migrants, then in the countries of Asia and the South it has grown to a third of the population, in Russia it is also about 35%.
The middle class is people who can and want to choose, and who have the income and education to do so. The growth of the middle class leads to the formation of political and cultural innovations that act as economic drivers to the same extent as technological solutions. Middle class consumption acts as an economic driver along with heavy technological innovations.
The second engine is the digital economy, which has received a new lease of life thanks to economically significant digital platforms. “Digital platforms have become a key form of ensuring economic and cultural sovereignty, and countries that underestimate their role will lose strategically,” Yaroslav Kuzminov summed up. The US, China, and Russia have their own platforms and digital ecosystems, he emphasized.
The Global South is more diverse than the Soviet and Western systems of the past, it includes many regions with different levels of development and has not yet formed structurally, believes Andrey Kostin, President and Chairman of the Management Board of VTB Bank. Despite the fact that today the BRICS countries produce no less than the G7 countries, the entire financial infrastructure is controlled by Western countries and has ceased to be effective due to the fact that the balance of power has changed.
“Due to the fact that the South is complex in itself, the internal relations are very difficult, we are still moving slowly. We need to create our own alternative center of the Global South and use settlements in national currencies. Sooner or later we will have to come to some denominator, we will have to create our own financial market infrastructure, because the current financial system meets exclusively the interests of the West. There are calculations that the BRICS countries lose about 30 billion a year on settlements through the dollar system. Perhaps the countries would survive this, but the political pressure that is exerted with the help of the dollar is, of course, unacceptable,” he said.
Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexey Overchuk noted the importance of developing integration in the post-Soviet space. “We strive first and foremost to try to create conditions for reducing the costs of our producers of goods and services here, at home, inside. We started with measures to protect our own market and create a single customs circuit in order to control the market inside, develop relevant technical regulations, standards and reduce barriers as much as possible. And we have largely achieved this: trade within the CIS is developing much faster than trade with countries of the outside world,” he emphasized.
At the same time, work is actively underway to develop international transport corridors to the markets of the Global South and to conclude agreements on free trade zones in order to provide the most comfortable environment for the promotion of Russian goods.
The founder of En Group, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the P.A. Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics Oleg Deripaska believes that the task of doubling the Russian economy over the next 12 years is quite realistic. To do this, it is necessary, among other things, to create competitive production in aviation and transport power engineering. He called on businesses not to wait for the end of geopolitical tensions, but to actively develop now, in the current conditions.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted that BRICS financiers are currently working in three main areas: the creation of cross-border payment, inter-depository, insurance and reinsurance infrastructure.
The issue of the need to create a BRICS depository infrastructure was raised by Russia during its presidency of the association. However, this issue is not easily resolved. “We see that many countries are wary of investments, of settlements with our country, but I want to say that the question of how profitable it is, how profitable it is, is always at issue here. The desire to earn money solves any problem,” he explained.
Anton Siluanov also spoke in favor of joint recognition of rating agencies within the BRICS framework. The head of the Ministry of Finance noted that partners from China are already very actively applying their rating assessments to business, including in Russia.
In addition, the session was attended by the Minister of Foreign Trade of Qatar Ahmad bin Mohammed Al Sayed, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export-Import Bank Benedict Okey Oramah and President of the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank Serhat Koksal.
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