Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 29, 2025
Updated: Sun Jun 29 08:21:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Wed, Jul 02, 2025 – Thu, Jul 03, 2025
D7
Sat, Jul 05, 2025 – Sun, Jul 06, 2025
D5
Thu, Jul 03, 2025 – Fri, Jul 04, 2025
D8
Sun, Jul 06, 2025 – Mon, Jul 07, 2025
D6
Fri, Jul 04, 2025 – Sat, Jul 05, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290819
SPC AC 290819
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Valid 021200Z – 071200Z
…DISCUSSION…
The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday
will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida.
A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across
the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the
region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS
will keep severe weather chances minimal.
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains,
beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to
break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a
mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF
shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear
will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold
front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend.
However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm
organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been
added at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/29/2025
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