Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 30, 2025
Updated: Mon Jun 30 08:56:02 UTC 2025
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D4
Thu, Jul 03, 2025 – Fri, Jul 04, 2025
D7
Sun, Jul 06, 2025 – Mon, Jul 07, 2025
D5
Fri, Jul 04, 2025 – Sat, Jul 05, 2025
D8
Mon, Jul 07, 2025 – Tue, Jul 08, 2025
D6
Sat, Jul 05, 2025 – Sun, Jul 06, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300853
SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 031200Z – 081200Z
…DISCUSSION…
A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains
on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended
period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and
move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday.
This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the
only potential for any severe weather during the extended period.
However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well
displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather
probabilities are not necessary at this time.
Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period,
thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak
shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization.
..Bentley.. 06/30/2025
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