Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jul 9, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 9 00:52:40 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 090052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025
Valid 090100Z – 091200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue this evening
across parts of the central/southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England.
…Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England…
Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to spread
eastward across the DelMarVa Peninsula and southeast VA/northeast NC
vicinity over the next couple of hours this evening. A sufficiently
moist and unstable airmass should support occasional severe/damaging
winds with this activity until it moves offshore or eventually
weakens with the loss of daytime heating.
…Central/Southern Plains…
Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms are present this
evening across the central/southern Plains, generally along/south of
a convectively reinforced boundary extending across KS into the
Ozarks. Large-scale forcing across these regions will tend to remain
weak on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge centered over the
Southwest. But, multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
should aid in thunderstorm maintenance for several more hours this
evening given the presence of moderate to strong instability and
marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.
Isolated severe winds and hail may occur with loosely organized
multicells and occasional supercells. But, the overall severe threat
still appears too unfocused/widely spaced to include greater severe
probabilities.
..Gleason.. 07/09/2025
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