Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 11, 2025
Updated: Fri Jul 11 08:42:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Mon, Jul 14, 2025 – Tue, Jul 15, 2025
D7
Thu, Jul 17, 2025 – Fri, Jul 18, 2025
D5
Tue, Jul 15, 2025 – Wed, Jul 16, 2025
D8
Fri, Jul 18, 2025 – Sat, Jul 19, 2025
D6
Wed, Jul 16, 2025 – Thu, Jul 17, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110840
SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z – 191200Z
…DISCUSSION…
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the
period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in
response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains.
This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt
short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow
across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably
strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the
wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are
likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow
boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack
of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the
northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced
south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an
organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the
better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North
Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to
the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains
during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000
J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of
relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where
any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear
might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance
begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation
may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
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