Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 16, 2025
Updated: Wed Jul 16 07:48:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Sat, Jul 19, 2025 – Sun, Jul 20, 2025
D7
Tue, Jul 22, 2025 – Wed, Jul 23, 2025
D5
Sun, Jul 20, 2025 – Mon, Jul 21, 2025
D8
Wed, Jul 23, 2025 – Thu, Jul 24, 2025
D6
Mon, Jul 21, 2025 – Tue, Jul 22, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160745
SPC AC 160745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Valid 191200Z – 241200Z
…DISCUSSION…
A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through
the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced
westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this
system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of
these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of
the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead
of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a
better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding
probabilities.
By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over
the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject
from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern
Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though
confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook
area at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/16/2025
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