Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jul 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 20 01:00:59 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 200100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Valid 200100Z – 201200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST…
…SUMMARY…
Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late
tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into
parts of the Corn Belt.
…Central Plains into parts of IA/IL…
Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted
on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into
western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a
threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a
tornado or two through much of the evening.
A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in
storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA.
Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any
substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and
isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially
reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period.
…Northern High Plains…
Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening
across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized
by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as
depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized
severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale
growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in
association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across
southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across
this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and
increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening
trend.
…Mid Atlantic…
A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into
NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest
remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as
storms weaken with time and/or move offshore.
…WI/Lower MI vicinity…
Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across
parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest
buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm
or two capable of locally damaging wind.
..Dean.. 07/20/2025
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