Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z – 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 21 01:04:33 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 210104
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Valid 210100Z – 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS…PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY…
…SUMMARY…
Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the
northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are
possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley.
…Ohio Valley…
An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection
along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest,
strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized
clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this
evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur.
…Northern/central Plains…
Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into
southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear
will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and
severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells
have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central
Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main
concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening
and a tornado will remain possible.
…Kansas/Missouri…
As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is
expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps
northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger
storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this
evening.
..Wendt.. 07/21/2025
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