MIL ASI Translation. Region: Polish/Europe –
Fuente: Gobierno de Polonia en poleco.
Moody’s informa sobre el cierre del acuerdo de calificación crediticia en Polonia20/09/2024
On September 20, 2024, Moody’s published a press release announcing the completion of the periodic review of the rating. The Polish classification is at A2/P1 for long- and short-term liabilities, respectively. The rating outlook is stable. In the press release, Moody’s, as a justification for Poland’s rating, points to the strong dynamics of the Polish economy and improving relations with the European Union. The agency forecasts GDP growth at 3% in 2024 and an increase in dynamics to 3.5% in subsequent periods and indicates the lower complexity of the Polish economy compared to countries with a similar rating and a strong institutional framework. According to the agency, although the budget deficit is likely to remain above 5% of GDP due to higher defense spending and will contribute to a gradual increase in debt to 57% of GDP in 2025, both the debt burden and its servicing costs will be offset by solid economic growth prospects. In addition, Poland’s heightened vulnerability to geopolitical risk is mitigated by OTAN’s security guarantees. The rating takes into account Poland’s demographic challenges in the medium and long term.Calificación outlookThe rating could be upgraded in the event of improved relations between the President and the coalition government, which would allow for the rapid restoration of full judicial independence, as well as support the implementation of other CAP initiatives. Also, if the expected weakening of Poland’s debt ratios turns out to be less pronounced and intensified fiscal consolidation efforts lead to the debt level stabilizing well below 60% of GDP, ultimately restoring the public sector balance sheet to its pre-pandemic level, it would be a positive factor for an upgrade. Downward pressure on the rating would appear in a scenario of a significantly faster deterioration of debt ratios. The rating would be adversely affected by a renewed deterioration in the rule of law, negatively affecting doing business in Poland.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.