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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: In what order did the planets in our solar system form?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christopher Palma, Teaching Professor of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Penn State

    An artistic rendition of our solar system, including the Sun and eight planets. vjanez/iStock via Getty Images

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.

    Are planets in the solar system that are closer to the Sun older than the ones further away? – Gavriel, age 10, Paducah, Kentucky

    A cloud of collapsing gas created our Sun, the first thing to form in our solar system. This happened about 4½ billion years ago.

    Then the planets began to emerge, as the billions of particles of gas and dust left over from the Sun’s formation became a flattened disk.

    Known as a protoplanetary disk, it was enormous and surrounded the Sun for billions of miles. Within the disk, the gas and dust particles started to collide, solidify and stick together, like snowflakes clumping together to form snowballs.

    As the particles clung together, the microscopic grains became pebble-size objects and then grew and grew. Some became rocks the size of baseballs, others the size of a house, and a few as big as a planet.

    This process, called accretion, is how everything in the solar system – planets, moons, comets and asteroids – came into being.

    Telescopes can see young solar systems being born. This image is a protoplanetary disk from a distant star in the Milky Way galaxy.
    NASA/ALMA/ESO/NAOJ/NRAO/A.Isella;/B.Saxton/NRAO/AUI/NSF

    The ice line

    By studying computer models and observing the creation of other star systems, astronomers like us have learned a lot about the early days of our solar system.

    When the Sun was still forming and the protoplanetary disk was making planets, there was a distance from the Sun where it was cold enough for ice to gather. That place, the ice line – sometimes called the snow line – was in what’s now the asteroid belt, which is between Mars and Jupiter.

    Today, of course, ice is found on almost every planet, even on Mercury. But back then, only the young protoplanets beyond the ice line were cold enough to have it. The ice, gas and dust, slamming into each other for millions of years, accumulated into enormous bodies that ultimately became giant planets – Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.

    While all this was happening, the smaller planets inside the ice line were forming too. But with less raw material to work with, Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars took much longer.

    Today, it’s believed that Jupiter and Saturn, the largest planets, were the first to fully form, both within a few million years. Uranus and Neptune were next, within 10 million years. The inner planets, including Earth, took at least 100 million years, maybe more.

    To put it another way, the four planets closest to the Sun are the youngest; the two planets farthest out, the next youngest; and the two in between, the oldest. The difference in age between the youngest and oldest planets is perhaps 90 million years.

    That sounds like an enormous age difference, but in space, 90 million years isn’t really that long – less than 1% of the total time the universe has been around. One way to consider it: Think of Earth as a little sister with a big brother, Jupiter, who’s 2 or 3 years older.

    Taken by the Hubble Space Telescope in 2019, this is a photo of Jupiter, the fifth planet out from the Sun.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Kevin M. Gill (CC-BY)

    Location, location, location

    Soon after formation the giant worlds began to migrate, moving inward toward the Sun or outward away from the Sun, before finally settling into their final orbits.

    For instance, Neptune migrated outward, switching places with Uranus, and pushed a lot of the small, icy bodies into the Kuiper Belt, a place in the outer solar system that’s home to dwarf planets Pluto, Eris and Makemake and millions of comets.

    Meanwhile, Jupiter moved inward, and its massive gravity forced some forming planets into the Sun, where they disintegrated. Along the way, Jupiter flung some smaller rocks out of the solar system altogether; the rest went to the asteroid belt.

    But most critically, as Jupiter settled into its own orbit, it moved all of the forming objects and likely finalized the location of the remaining inner planets, including Earth.

    All of Jupiter’s tugging helped put our planet in the so-called “Goldilocks zone,” a place just the right distance from the Sun, where Earth could have liquid water on its surface and the right temperature for life to evolve. If Jupiter hadn’t formed the way it did, it’s entirely possible life would not have ignited on Earth – and we would not be here today.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Lucas Brefka receives funding from a NASA Exoplanet Research Program grant.

    Christopher Palma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In what order did the planets in our solar system form? – https://theconversation.com/in-what-order-did-the-planets-in-our-solar-system-form-252262

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Space tourism’s growth blurs the line between scientific and symbolic achievement – a tourism scholar explains how

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Betsy Pudliner, Associate Professor of Hospitality and Technology Innovation, University of Wisconsin-Stout

    Blue Origin’s NS-31 flight lifted off on April 14, 2025. Justin Hamel/Getty Images

    On April 14, 2025, Blue Origin launched six women – Aisha Bowe, Amanda Nguyễn, Gayle King, Katy Perry, Kerianne Flynn and Lauren Sánchez – on a suborbital journey to the edge of space.

    The headlines called it a historic moment for women in space. But as a tourism educator, I paused – not because I questioned their experience, but because I questioned the language. Were they astronauts or space tourists? The distinction matters – not just for accuracy, but for understanding how experience, symbolism and motivation shape travel today.

    In tourism studies, my colleagues and I often ask what motivates travel and makes it a meaningful experience. These women crossed a boundary by leaving Earth’s surface. But they also stepped into a controversy about a symbolic one: the blurred line between astronaut and tourist, between scientific achievement and curated experience.

    This flight wasn’t just about the altitude they flew to – it was about what it meant. As commercial space travel becomes more accessible to civilians, more people are joining spaceflights not as scientists or mission specialists, but as invited guests or paying participants. The line between astronaut and space tourist is becoming increasingly blurred.

    Blue Origin’s NS-31 flight brought six women to the edge of space.

    In my own work, I explore how travelers find meaning in the way their journeys are framed. A tourism studies perspective can help unpack how experiences like the Blue Origin flight are designed, marketed and ultimately understood by travelers and the tourism industry.

    So, were these passengers astronauts? Not in the traditional sense. They weren’t selected through NASA’s rigorous training protocols, nor were they conducting research or exploration in orbit.

    Instead, they belong to a new category: space tourists. These are participants in a crafted, symbolic journey that reflects how commercial spaceflight is redefining what it means to go to space.

    Space tourism as a niche market

    Space tourism has its origins in 1986 with the launch of the Mir space station, which later became the first orbital platform to host nonprofessional astronauts. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Mir and its successor, the International Space Station, welcomed a handful of privately funded civilian guests – most notably U.S. businessman Dennis Tito in 2001, often cited as the first space tourist.

    Space tourism has since evolved into a niche market selling brief encounters to the edge of Earth’s atmosphere. While passengers on the NS-31 flight did not purchase their seats, the experience mirrors those sold by commercial space tourism providers such as Virgin Galactic.

    Like other forms of niche tourism – wellness retreats, heritage trails or extreme adventures – space travel appeals to those drawn to novelty, exclusivity and status, regardless of whether they purchased the ticket.

    These suborbital flights may last just minutes, but they offer something far more lasting: prestige, personal storytelling and the feeling of participating in something rare. Space tourism sells the experience of being somewhere few have visited, not the destination itself. For many, even a 10-minute flight can fulfill a deeply personal milestone.

    Tourist motivation and space tourism’s evolution

    The push-and-pull theory in tourism studies helps explain why people might want to pursue space travel. Push factors – internal desires such as curiosity, an urge to escape or an eagerness to gain fame – spark interest. Pull factors – external elements such as wishing to see the view of Earth from above or experience the sensation of weightlessness – enhance the appeal.

    Space tourism taps into both. It’s fueled by the internal drive to do something extraordinary and the external attraction of a highly choreographed, emotional experience.

    Participants in space tourism wear branded jumpsuits with the company’s logo, pose for photos and talk to the media about their experience.
    AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez

    These flights are often branded – not necessarily with flashy logos, but through storytelling and design choices that make the experience feel iconic. For example, while the New Shepard rocket the women traveled in doesn’t carry a separate emblem, it features the company’s name, Blue Origin, in bold letters along the side. Passengers wear personalized flight suits, pose for preflight photos and receive mission patches or certificates, all designed to echo the rituals of professional space missions.

    What’s being sold is an “astronaut-for-a-day” experience: emotionally powerful, visually compelling and rich with symbolism. But under tourism classifications, these travelers are space tourists – participants in a curated, short-duration excursion.

    Representation and marketing experience

    The image from the Blue Origin flight of six women boarding a rocket was framed as a symbolic victory – a girl-power moment designed for visibility and celebration – but it was also carefully curated.

    This wasn’t the first time women entered space. Since its inception, NASA has selected 61 women as astronaut candidates, many of them making groundbreaking contributions to space science and exploration. Sally Ride, Mae Jemison, Christina Koch and Jessica Meir not only entered space – they trained as astronauts and contributed significantly to science, engineering and long-duration missions. Their journeys marked historic achievements in space exploration rather than curated moments in tourism.

    Recognizing their legacy is important as commercial spaceflight creates new kinds of unique, tailored experiences, ones shaped more by media performance than by scientific milestones.

    The Blue Origin flight was not a scientific mission but rather was framed as a symbolic event. In tourism, companies, marketers and media outlets often create these performances to maximize their visibility. SpaceX has taken a similar approach with its Inspiration4 mission, turning a private orbital flight into a global media event complete with a Netflix documentary and emotional storytelling.

    The Blue Origin flight sold a feeling of progress while blending the roles between astronaut and guest. For Blue Origin, the symbolic value was significant. By launching the first all-female crew into suborbital space, the company was able to claim a historic milestone – one that aligned them with inclusion – without the cost, complexity or risk associated with a scientific mission. In doing so, they generated enormous media attention.

    Tourism education and media literacy

    In today’s world, space travel is all about the story that gets told about the flight. From curated visuals to social media posts and press coverage, much of the experience’s meaning is shaped by marketing and media.

    Understanding that process matters – not just for scholars or industry insiders, but for members of the public, who follow these trips through the narratives produced by the companies’ marketing teams and media outlets.

    Another theory in tourism studies describes how destinations evolve over time – from exploration, to development, to mass adoption. Many forms of tourism begin in an exploration phase, accessible only to the wealthy or well connected. For example, the Grand Tour of Europe was once a rite of passage for aristocrats. Its legacy helped shape and develop modern travel.

    As more people travel to a destination over time, it moves through the tourism area life cycle. During the early exploration phase, the destination has only a few tourists.
    Coba56/Wikimedia Commons

    Right now, space tourism is in the exploration stage. It’s expensive, exclusive and available only to a few. There’s limited infrastructure to support it, and companies are still experimenting with what the experience should look like. This isn’t mass tourism yet, it’s more like a high-profile playground for early adopters, drawing media attention and curiosity with every launch.

    Advances in technology, economic shifts and changing cultural norms can increase access to unique destinations that start as out of bounds to a majority of tourists. Space tourism could be the next to evolve this way in the tourism industry. How it’s framed now – who gets to go, how the participants are labeled and how their stories are told – will set the tone moving forward. Understanding these trips helps people see how society packages and sells an inspirational experience long before most people can afford to join the journey.

    Betsy Pudliner is affiliated with International Council of Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Educators.

    – ref. Space tourism’s growth blurs the line between scientific and symbolic achievement – a tourism scholar explains how – https://theconversation.com/space-tourisms-growth-blurs-the-line-between-scientific-and-symbolic-achievement-a-tourism-scholar-explains-how-255284

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Seven countries in Latin America where human rights are taking the biggest hit

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex

    Latin America is undergoing one of its most profound human rights crises in decades. The region’s civic space is shrinking rapidly, from mass surveillance and arbitrary arrests to political repression, enforced disappearances and impunity for state violence.

    The 2025 State of the World’s Human Rights report, released by Amnesty International, lays bare the magnitude of the challenge. Seven countries – Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, Cuba and El Salvador – are at the epicentre of this authoritarian surge.

    Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January has only deepened the problem. In a separate report published in the same week, Amnesty argues that Trump’s nationalist rhetoric and policy reversals have emboldened strongman leaders. These have undercut international accountability and accelerated rights violations across the hemisphere.

    Here are the countries where the assault on human rights is being felt most acutely.

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    1. Haiti

    Nowhere has the collapse in human rights been more visible than in Haiti. By the end of 2024, more than 700,000 people – half of them children – had been internally displaced due to spiralling gang violence and state failure.

    Criminal organisations routinely engaged in killings, sexual violence and attacks on hospitals and schools. A December 2024 massacre in Cité Soleil, a densely populated part of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince, saw at least 207 people executed by the Wharf Jérémie gang.

    The justice system has all but ceased to function. Meanwhile, deportations of Haitians from the US and neighbouring Dominican Republic has surged.

    According to Amnesty, nearly 200,000 people were returned without due process in 2024 alone. Trump’s crackdown on migration, framed as necessary for border security, has accelerated these mass removals.

    2. Nicaragua

    Nicaragua’s president, Daniel Ortega, has refined authoritarianism into an efficient machine of repression. More than 5,000 civil society groups, private universities and media outlets have been closed since 2018. This included 1,500 from January to September 2024 alone.

    Over 400 critics have been stripped of nationality since 2023 and dozens of journalists have been forcibly disappeared or jailed. The legal status of hundreds of evangelical groups has also been revoked.

    In 2024, the government criminalised dissent to the point where entire sectors of civil society have vanished. Indigenous communities, meanwhile, faced displacement and armed attacks from pro-government militias, with little international response.

    3. Venezuela

    Venezuela remains mired in repression. A presidential election in July 2024, which was stolen by Nicolás Maduro, was followed by the arbitrary detention and torture of protesters – including children. Independent journalists were arrested and NGOs threatened with closure.

    Many Venezuelans subsequently fled the country. Persecutions and despair at the election results saw 20,000 people migrate northwards through the jungle of the Darién Gap in September 2024 alone, a 70% increase on the previous month.



    Read more:
    Venezuela: Maduro’s declaration of victory isn’t fooling anyone

    In reality, the numbers are probably much higher. A poll following the election indicated that 43% of those remaining in the country were considering emigrating, but official data has not been made available. More than 7.8 million citizens have left Venezuela over the past ten years, with around 28 million people still residing there.

    In June 2023, the International Criminal Court resumed its investigation into the Maduro regime for alleged crimes against humanity. But Venezuela’s government continues to obstruct justice. With Trump’s administration disinterested in multilateral mechanisms, efforts to restore democracy face steeper odds.

    4. Mexico

    Mexico’s public security has become dangerously militarised. A constitutional amendment in September 2024, a few days before the end of the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration, placed the National Guard under military control. This has enabled widespread abuses including extrajudicial killings. Nine human rights defenders and four journalists were killed in 2024 alone.

    López Obrador’s administration undermined press freedom at home. It also failed to protect those seeking asylum. And with Trump back in office, deportations from the US to Mexico have increased. Returnees are often placed at risk of cartel violence and exploitation.

    5. Colombia

    Colombia suffered Latin America’s longest running insurgency, lasting over 50 years. Despite the country’s robust institutional frameworks, peace remains elusive. In 2024, over 195,000 people were forcibly confined by armed groups, and landmines continue to endanger more than 600,000 civilians.

    Child recruitment, sexual violence and targeted killings of former combatants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) rebel group have surged. Meanwhile, progress on implementing the 2016 peace accord remains slow.

    Investigations into military-perpetrated extrajudicial killings are ongoing, but face budgetary constraints and political pushback. Trump’s withdrawal of US support for transitional justice mechanisms has further weakened international backing for Colombia’s fragile reconciliation efforts.



    Read more:
    Colombia’s fragile peace process in danger as guerrilla violence rises

    6. Cuba

    The Cuban authorities are continuing to suppress dissent through arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances and censorship. Over 100 people were arrested for protesting in 2024, with many forced into self-incriminating video confessions. Independent media and activists were subject to constant surveillance and harassment.

    Amid economic collapse, more than 18% of the population has fled the island in two years. These mass migrations often result in perilous journeys and widespread family separations. The economic crisis has been exacerbated by US sanctions reimposed and intensified under Trump.

    7. El Salvador

    President Nayib Bukele’s model of mass incarceration continues to attract global attention. Nearly 84,000 people have been arrested since 2022 under a state of emergency that suspends basic rights and legal guarantees.

    Surveillance, arbitrary detentions and public humiliation of detainees have become routine. Trump’s vocal admiration of Bukele’s “tough on crime” stance has lent international legitimacy to this dangerous approach.



    Read more:
    Nayib Bukele: El Salvador’s strongman leader doing Donald Trump’s legwork abroad

    Trump’s return to the White House has intensified human rights setbacks across Latin America. His withdrawal from human rights and climate agreements has emboldened authoritarian regimes to suppress dissent and accelerate policies to exploit resources without fear of US pressure or accountability.

    Latin American migrants in the US have also faced a resurgence of mass deportations. Rhetoric portraying migrants as criminals has fuelled xenophobia and enabled sweeping immigration raids and policy rollbacks. Sanctuary cities like Chicago have been targeted and legal protections for undocumented residents eroded.

    Latin America’s current trajectory suggests a drift not just toward repression, but a normalisation of state violence. While local resistance remains strong, particularly among grassroots activists and civil society, international solidarity has been weakened by geopolitical shifts.

    The region risks cementing a new era of authoritarian resilience – one in which the defence of human rights is not just dangerous but futile.

    Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Seven countries in Latin America where human rights are taking the biggest hit – https://theconversation.com/seven-countries-in-latin-america-where-human-rights-are-taking-the-biggest-hit-255782

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tories get ghosted: new study shows dating app users are more likely to swipe right on Reform voters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte, Associate Professor in Quantitative Political Science, University of Southampton

    The Conservative party is in existential crisis over the electoral threat posed by Reform UK. But a recent experiment shows that not only is the new rightwing party usurping the old guard in the polls – it’s also eclipsing the Tories on the dating market.

    In recent local elections, Reform took control of ten councils in England, adding 677 councillors. The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost 674 councillors and control of 16 councils.

    Over on the love market, a recent study I co-authored shows people were more likely to swipe right (“like” or indicate interest) for a Reform voter than a Tory. While Reform voters had a 39% chance of a match, Conservatives had 35%.

    The parties of the left and centre had the highest match rates overall, with Labour supporters having a 52% chance of a match, Greens on 51% and Liberal Democrats on 49%.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    These results come from a behavioural experiment involving 2,000 people in Britain. We asked participants to evaluate online dating profiles to see how politics shapes a person’s chances of getting a match.

    Participants were shown AI-generated dating profiles — over 20,000 in total — and asked to swipe left (“dislike”) or right (“like”). The profiles varied randomly across characteristics like looks, ethnicity, job, hobbies and, most importantly, political affiliation.

    Some profiles expressed support for mainstream parties — Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Lib Dems as well as rightwing newcomer, Reform UK.

    What really stood out in the experiment was how much dating preferences followed political lines. People weren’t necessarily put off by more extreme views – but they were more likely to reject someone from the opposite side of the political spectrum.

    The politics of dating polarises. Conservative voters would rather date someone further to their right (Reform) and Labour voters would rather date someone further to their left (the Greens) than cross the Labour-Conservative divide in the centre.

    While people tend to prefer partners who vote for the same party as them, they also prefer partners who belong to the same left and right “camp”.

    You up? You Lib Dem?
    Shutterstock/r.classen

    Dating preferences were heavily split along the left-right divide, with leftwing voters 37% more likely to reject someone on the right than vice-versa. This explains, in part, why rightwing people are less popular on dating apps overall, compared with leftwing people.

    Given that the population of dating app users tends to be younger (and therefore less rightwing), the politics penalty is skewed against rightwing folks. In effect, the “number of fish in the sea” willing to date them is smaller than the number they themselves are willing to date.

    Men and women reacted largely in a similar way. There’s often talk of a gender divide in rightwing support – particularly among younger people. But we found no evidence that women were any more or less likely than men to swipe left on Reform UK supporters.

    So, the Conservatives are not only at risk of electoral annihilation thanks to the Reform threat. They’re also denying their supporters dates. In a dating world shaped more by political alignment than ideological distance, the chances of success depend less on what someone believes — and more on which side they’re on.

    Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte receives funding from the British Academy.

    – ref. Tories get ghosted: new study shows dating app users are more likely to swipe right on Reform voters – https://theconversation.com/tories-get-ghosted-new-study-shows-dating-app-users-are-more-likely-to-swipe-right-on-reform-voters-256824

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How aid cuts could make vulnerable communities even less resilient to climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kalle Hirvonen, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Insitute; Research Fellow, UNU-WIDER, United Nations University

    An irrigation project in Mozambique. Marcos Villalta / Save the Children, CC BY-NC-ND

    As global temperatures rise and climate-related disasters become more frequent, the need to adapt is rapidly increasing. That need for adaptation – from adjusting farming practices to diversifying livelihoods and strengthening infrastructure – is most acute in vulnerable low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti and Vietnam.

    Despite contributing a negligible share of historical global greenhouse gas emissions, these countries are facing the brunt of climate change. Yet as the demand for long-term resilience grows, international aid priorities are shifting in the opposite direction.

    Over the past three years, several major rich countries have substantially cut their development aid budgets. Remaining funds have been redirected towards emergency relief.

    This shift could undermine the climate finance commitments made by wealthy countries to mobilise US$300 billion (£228 billion) a year for climate action in the most vulnerable low- and middle-income countries by 2035.

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    Emergency aid, while vital for saving lives during crises such as droughts and floods, is reactive by nature. It arrives only after disaster has struck, often with a substantial delay.

    By contrast, climate adaptation is proactive. It focuses on anticipating future risks and helping communities prepare for changing environments.

    A key part of this is supporting transitions away from sectors like crop agriculture that are particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks. In some cases, adapting to a changing climate may also require helping families move safely — turning relocation into a choice rather than a last resort.

    In Ethiopia, one of the world’s most drought-prone countries, a US government-funded food security programme aimed to strengthen resilience by offering livelihood training, organising savings groups and providing a US$200 lump sum to poor rural households. Research shows that this programme improved food security and protected assets during periods of drought.

    Livestock farming in the Somali region of Ethiopia which was severely affected by droughts in 2011.
    Malini Morzaria/EUECHO, CC BY-NC-ND

    In Nicaragua, families who received cash transfers alongside vocational training or investment grants were better protected against drought shocks than those relying on cash alone. These households could supplement farming with other income sources. This made them less vulnerable to drought-related losses and helped stabilise their earnings throughout the year.

    These schemes are known as “cash-plus programmes”. They help create the conditions for households to adapt and thrive. But when climate and environmental shocks overwhelm the resilience of local communities, relocation may still become the only viable option.

    That’s why proactive adaptation efforts need to be scaled up and broadened — not only to meet immediate needs but to support longer-term transitions. This includes investing in sustainable livelihoods through diversified income sources, skills training and, when necessary, enabling safe and voluntary relocation.

    Some pilot interventions that supported seasonal rural-to-urban migration have shown what’s possible. In Bangladesh, a small migration subsidy of just US$8.50 helped the participating poor farm households affected by seasonal famine cover travel costs.

    Migration for temporary work increased by 22%, and families back home experienced improvements in food security. With even modest support, people were able to access job opportunities in cities and strengthen their resilience.

    Programmes that make it easier for people to choose to move from rural areas to cities could help families move with dignity rather than in desperation. However, scaling up such initiatives successfully remains a challenge, requiring strong political commitment and effective governance.

    Climate relocation

    Without proactive planning and support, migration often happens out of necessity rather than choice. This kind of displacement typically occurs within national borders rather than across continents — contrary to popular narratives.

    In fact, 59% of the world’s forcibly displaced population live within their own country. By the end of 2023, a record 75.9 million people across 116 countries were internally displaced — a 51% increase over the previous five years, driven in part by climate change.

    A family leave their home in Oklahoma, US, as a result of the 1930s dust bowl disaster.
    Dorothea Lange/Library of Congress, Farm Security Administration/Office of War Information.

    History provides sobering lessons about relocation triggered by environmental collapse. In the 1930s, a severe drought and dust storms struck the Great Plains in the US, creating the “dust bowl”. This devastated farmland and forced millions of people to leave their homes, as economic hardship became widespread and the land so degraded that crops wouldn’t grow.

    Today, similar patterns loom as droughts, floods and rising seas threaten livelihoods around the world. Small island states such as Tuvalu face existential threats from rising sea levels, with entire communities at risk of being displaced.

    These mounting threats underscore a hard truth: the window for effective climate adaptation is rapidly closing. As climate disruptions intensify, the case for long-term investment in resilience has never been clearer. Without proactive adaptation, the cycle of crisis and response will only deepen.

    Societies can adapt, but doing so takes foresight, investment and courage. In the face of escalating climate risks, bold, forward-looking policies are not a luxury — they are a necessity. By supporting longer-term strategies, rich-country governments and aid charities can enable vulnerable communities to withstand, adapt and, when necessary, move with dignity.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

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    Kalle Hirvonen’s recent and ongoing research has been funded by the CGIAR Trust Fund (https://www.cgiar.org/funders/), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland.

    Olli-Pekka Kuusela does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How aid cuts could make vulnerable communities even less resilient to climate change – https://theconversation.com/how-aid-cuts-could-make-vulnerable-communities-even-less-resilient-to-climate-change-255358

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Moomin merchandise and fashion: 80 years of ultra-savvy marketing that taps into childhood nostalgia

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kiera Vaclavik, Professor of Children’s Literature & Childhood Culture, Queen Mary University of London

    On a visit to the British Library in London to research this piece, I was preceded by a woman with a lilac-coloured tote featuring a mischievous-looking girl with a severe top knot and black dress. I instantly recognised the distinctive outline of Tove Jansson’s Little My, one of the many brilliant characters of the Moominverse.

    A committed researcher, I summoned up the courage to ask about the bag and the woman carrying it. Anna – visiting the library to work on her fairy tale novel – immediately told all about her hold-all. About how she felt a connection with “fiery and independent” Little My specifically and Moomins generally. About how they took her back to her Swedish childhood, when she would hand-knit the distinctive rotund creatures. I had clearly hit the jackpot with Anna – Moomin owner, wearer and maker, all in one.

    Anna had bought the bag in Sweden, but you don’t have to go to the Scandinavian birthplace of the Moomins to buy into their world. Anna could have gone to the Moomin emporium 30 minutes’ walk away in Covent Garden, or just shopped online.

    This is part of a series of articles celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Moomins. Want to celebrate their birthday with us? Join The Conversation and a group of experts on May 23 in Bradford for a screening of Moomins on the Riviera and a discussion of the refugee experience in Tove Jansson’s work. Click here for more information and tickets.

    Today’s Moomin empire is vast and varied. The Moomins is a brand worth multi-millions, with 800 licencees worldwide. This 80th anniversary year will see capsule collections galore from the likes of Comme des Garçons, Acne Studios and Polarn O. Pyret.

    The products span interior décor, clothing and accessories, ceramics and much, much more. Driven in part by the extension into media that includes video games and TV, Moomins can be found on everything from planes to pencils. It’s very possible to eat, sleep, wear, play Moomin – to immerse yourself entirely in the Moomin world.

    It’s all very typical of the 21st-century media and entertainment asset landscape. And yet, as Moomin aficionados know full well, none of it is new. There has been Moomin merch for as long as there have been Moomins.

    Their creator Tove Jansson took an active role in the development of the Moomin industry. Part of her training had been in illustrations for advertising and when the books and comic strips took off, she herself provided images for a drinks manufacturer selling themed whortleberry juice and other libations. Jansson also designed a board game and supported and oversaw the development of several products and lines, taking immense care over their quality and details.

    The scale of the operation soon became overwhelming and Jansson became increasingly frustrated and resentful of the demands on her creative time. One of her characters, Snufkin, is bemused by why people “liked to have things” (Finn Family Moomintroll, 1948) and the books have a certain anti-consumerist bent. From this perspective, the vast Moomin industry today goes against the spirit of the works.

    And yet. The same book in which Snufkin spoke this way is also a book (whose Finnish original title is The Hobgoblin’s Hat) full to the brim with … things. And those things are invested with immense fascination and power. As the Snork character points out “a top hat is always somewhat extraordinary, of course”.

    Jansson herself had a strong impulse to work with others to extend and flesh out her creations, releasing them from the confines of the books. She was actively involved in early stage adaptations, crafting sets and costumes, and later became absorbed in the long-term creation of a Moominhouse diorama (and series of associated tableaux) with partner Tuulikki Pietilä and physician friend Pentti Eistola.

    Making her creations tangible and tactile was clearly a huge draw for this sculptor’s daughter. One of the most striking features of the Moomins on paper is their smooth rotundity – they’re almost begging to be made into three dimensions.

    So much for the creator. But what of Moomin consumers? People around the world have clearly long wanted to feel closer to the Moomin world, and to buy into it. But why? The reasons are both aesthetic and affective. As for the Swedish-born writer I encountered at the British Library, the Moomins are often keyed into the nostalgia and innocence of childhood. And, as with Anna’s sense of kinship with Little My, people often feel an instinctive affiliation with one or more of the Moomin’s vast and varied cast.

    The books also encapsulate and convey a whole host of associations (or “values” in brand speak) which people identify with, want to share and display. Some of these are relatively banal (though fundamental) and apparent elsewhere – things like friendship, warmth, family and acceptance.

    But there are also features quite specific to Moomins and to Jansson herself: a relish of life and sensuous experience, gender fluidity, space for both light and dark, for wanderlust and the joy of cocooning at home. All of this is conveyed in words and images of exceptional quality and distinction.

    The whimsy is delivered with distinctive Scandinavian style and flair: a clean, pared-back aesthetic and sharp lines accompanied by a rich and bold colour palette. Who wouldn’t want to wear a hand-painted silk AALTO dress by Finnish designer Tuomas Merikoski that transposes the lush greens of one of the later Moomin books, The Dangerous Journey?

    Eight decades after their first publication, Moomins continue to be highly covetable and to catalyse creativity. As with Anna’s Little My tote, they are set to accompany and assist many more generations of writers and creatives in their imaginative endeavours.

    Kiera Vaclavik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Moomin merchandise and fashion: 80 years of ultra-savvy marketing that taps into childhood nostalgia – https://theconversation.com/moomin-merchandise-and-fashion-80-years-of-ultra-savvy-marketing-that-taps-into-childhood-nostalgia-256168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Introducing The Conversation and the BBC’s Secrets of the Sea – my journey to meet six marine scientists pioneering ocean solutions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Turns, Senior Environment Editor

    Senior environment editor Anna Turns with BBC radio producer Jo Loosemore CC BY-NC-ND

    After a long drive to Godrevy lighthouse near St Ives in Cornwall, the wind is blowing and the waves are crashing. I’m here with BBC radio producer Jo Loosemore, on a roadtrip to meet some of the marine scientists researching how ocean health is vital to our future.

    As we squeeze between crevices in the cliffs to shelter from the elements at Godrevy beach, I interview Ed Gasson, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter. His story is full of surprises.

    Jo Loosemore with Anna Turns on Godrevy beach.
    Ed Gasson, CC BY-NC-ND

    This corner of north Cornwall is one I have visited many times, usually on bright, sunny days during weekend getaways or family holidays. I’ve gazed at the lighthouse, enjoyed spotting seals on the rocks beneath, and sat with both icecream and binoculars in hand on the benches by the coast path.

    But I had never looked closely at these cliffs below, until now. And I could never have guessed that this coastline had any connections to the ice age, the Antarctic or sea-level rise.

    In a collaboration between The Conversation and BBC South West, Secrets of the Sea is a new series that showcases local stories with global significance. World experts based across Devon and Cornwall are at the forefront of marine research into seaweeds and seagrass, seabed restoration and offshore shellfish farming.

    Prepping to record inside the National Maritime Museum of Cornwall.
    Jo Loosemore, CC BY-NC-ND

    From the rocky foreshore in Torquay to the mussel-covered pontoons of Plymouth harbour, I’ve been speaking to scientists about their work, their passions and the potential for our oceans to hold the key to climate resilience. Healthier seas mean our planet will be much better able to weather the stormy seas of the climate crisis.

    Each of the six radio programmes and accompanying articles delves into a different aspect of our oceans. Through 19th-century archives, in tiny test tubes on a lab bench, or inside a walk-in fridge full of marine fungi, this series explores creative ways to study ocean health. So, join me on BBC Sounds and here at The Conversation to go beneath the waves with a sense of wonder – and optimism.

    Listen to a mini-series of four short episodes on BBC Radio Devon from May 20-23 here. The full six-part series will air weekly from May 23 at 8.30pm on BBC Radio Devon and BBC Radio Cornwall.


    Local science, global stories.

    In collaboration with the BBC, Anna Turns travels around the West Country coastline to meet ocean experts making exciting discoveries beneath the waves.

    This article is part of a series, Secrets of the Sea, exploring how marine scientists are developing climate solutions.

    – ref. Introducing The Conversation and the BBC’s Secrets of the Sea – my journey to meet six marine scientists pioneering ocean solutions – https://theconversation.com/introducing-the-conversation-and-the-bbcs-secrets-of-the-sea-my-journey-to-meet-six-marine-scientists-pioneering-ocean-solutions-249981

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain’s net zero construction workforce is already at risk of burn out

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Addyman, Associate Professor in Project Management, UCL

    Kittirat Roekburi/Shutterstock

    The pressure of decarbonising industrial sectors is weighing on workers.

    The UK’s Labour government seeks a low-carbon and homegrown energy supply by 2030. The scale and pace of this transformation is unprecedented in the country’s power sector, and will involve building twice as much transmission infrastructure (pylons, cables, substations) in the next five years as was built over the last decade.

    Much of the workforce will be drawn from the construction sector, which employs 2.3 million people. Construction forms the dominant supply chain to the 17 major infrastructure projects involved in an overhaul of the electricity grid that will connect new wind farms in the North Sea and northern Scotland to homes and businesses across Great Britain.

    The workers “on the tools” who will carry out much of this transformation are struggling. The latest analysis from the Office for National Statistics suggests that the suicide risk of construction workers is three times higher than the male national average. Scholars of construction project management have identified a toxic workplace culture in the industry, citing aggressive market competition and demanding performance metrics.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    This is a problem that is largely being ignored. When planners at the National Energy System Operator assessed the UK’s capacity to build a clean power sector by 2030, they considered the absolute number of workers needed, the skills required and how employment is changing in the sector.

    Their assessment failed to consider the broader implications for workforce mental health and wellbeing of such a quick and comprehensive upgrade – but it is people who are going through a rapid transition, not just infrastructure.

    Expect more of these in years to come.
    J R Patterson/Shutterstock

    Going green, feeling blue

    Construction workers already endure long hours and stress due to tight deadlines. A rapid transition to green power will substantially increase their workload, unless managed carefully.

    Our report, published July 2024, looked into wellbeing and suicide in the construction industry. We concluded that the UK government, major infrastructure owners such as National Grid and their supply chain partners who provide specialist design and construction services, must work together to solve this problem.

    Major infrastructure owners offer mental health services, such as confidential counselling, legal advice and financial guidance, to help their own employees manage personal or work-related issues. But most workers on the tools are not directly employed by these owners. Most are self-employed, or hired by construction firms, of which 99% are small- and medium-sized enterprises.

    More than 96% of construction firms have fewer than 15 employees. Smaller suppliers of specialist trade skills, like electrical and mechanical installation, have fewer employment protections and more compressed schedules, and are even less likely to have the capacity to provide these services.

    Some infrastructure owners and big construction companies extend their health and wellbeing services to these smaller suppliers. However, in an industry that is dominated by competitive tendering, which favours suppliers that keep costs low, it is no surprise that uptake has been low.

    Owners of infrastructure assets like electricity pylons and substations can drive workplace improvements by adopting procurement models that prioritise suppliers that are offering measures to improve worker wellbeing.

    Research from one of us (Jing Xu) and fellow project management expert Yanga Wu, has shown that the top-down prescriptive approach traditionally applied to health and safety in construction does not work for wellbeing. This requires a bottom-up approach, that makes it easy for workers to tell managers what they are struggling with and what they think would help.

    The construction sector also faces a shortage of workers and skills required for the green transition. The industry training board forecasts that the industry must attract the equivalent of 50,300 extra workers a year to meet expected levels of work over the next five years.

    The UK is not training enough workers to achieve net zero.
    Paya Mona/Shutterstock

    In the power sector, however, there is the additional complication of an ageing workforce, as well as differences in employment conditions between permanent and contract staff. Key expertise is at risk of being lost with retirements. Older workers often face additional pressure, not only to meet performance targets but also to compensate for gaps in expertise, and all within a fast-paced environment.

    To improve mental health and wellbeing among a diverse workforce requires engaging with workers directly and ensuring their voices are heard. This involves more than upgrading technical skills. Research to better understand how organisations can care for their workforce in the context of increasing pressures due to achieving net zero is also vital.

    Further research and collaboration with infrastructure owners and major construction contractors could help manage the risks and provide valuable insights for other sectors that will need to follow suit, such as heating, transport and agriculture.

    It is imperative to consider what a transition means: the technical transition of replacing outmoded technology, as well as the social transition, which prioritises not only skills but workplace mental health. Without a focus on both policy and people, clean power will not be delivered.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Simon Addyman receives funding from University College London.

    Jing Xu receives funding from University College London.

    – ref. Britain’s net zero construction workforce is already at risk of burn out – https://theconversation.com/britains-net-zero-construction-workforce-is-already-at-risk-of-burn-out-249328

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Joe Biden has advanced prostate cancer with a Gleason score of 9. What does this mean?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

    Former US President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that has already spread to his bones.

    A statement Biden’s office issued on Sunday revealed Biden was diagnosed after experiencing urinary issues.

    Biden’s office said his cancer has a Gleason score of nine out of ten. It also said his cancer “appears to be hormone-sensitive, which allows for effective management”.

    So what is a Gleason score? And what does it mean for a cancer to be hormone-sensitive?

    What is prostate cancer?

    Prostate cancer is any cancer that begins in the prostate, part of the male reproductive system. This small golf ball-sized gland is located below the bladder.

    The prostate is below the bladder.
    izunna/Shutterstock

    Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men worldwide. In Australia, one in six men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer by the age of 85.

    Some types of prostate cancer are low risk, grow very slowly, and may not require immediate treatment. Others are highly aggressive and can spread to other tissues and organs.

    What are the symptoms of prostate cancer?

    Early prostate cancers do not usually cause symptoms, and therefore can be difficult to detect.

    At later stages, prostate cancer symptoms can include frequent urination, pain and/or a weak stream while urinating, blood in urine/semen, back/pelvic pain, and weakness in the legs or feet.

    Advanced prostate cancer which has spread to bones can cause pain, fatigue and weight loss.



    Read more:
    How does cancer spread to other parts of the body?

    What is the Gleason score?

    The Gleason score is one way of measuring the aggressiveness of prostate cancers. It assists doctors in categorising prostate cancers into different groups and in selecting appropriate treatments for patients.

    To calculate the Gleason score, clinicians take multiple samples of the tumour, called biopsies. To obtain each sample, a small needle is inserted into the tumour and a sliver of tissue (usually around 12 millimetres long) is extracted for testing.

    Because the different regions of the tumour can have different cancer cells present, pathologists then pick two different sections of the tumour biopsy they think best represent the whole tumour.

    Then, they grade each of the two sections with a score from 1 to 5. Grade 1 means the cancer cells present look a lot like normal, healthy cells. Grade 5 means the cancer cells look very abnormal. To get a patient’s Gleason score, the two grades are added together.

    Patients with a Gleason score of 6 or less are considered low risk and may not require immediate treatment.

    A Gleason score of 8–10 indicates a highly aggressive prostate cancer that will likely grow quickly.

    In Australia, 67.9% of men at diagnosis have a Gleason score of 7 or less.

    It’s not the only tool

    The Gleason score is only one tool health-care professionals use to guide the diagnosis and treatment of patients.

    Other tools include blood tests for prostate-specific antigen (PSA, which is often elevated in prostate cancer patients), physical examinations (such as a digital rectal examination), and imaging of the tumour (such as via CT scans, MRI, or ultrasounds).

    While we don’t have all of the information about Biden’s diagnosis, a Gleason score of 9 indicates that his cancer is very aggressive.

    What is hormone-sensitive prostate cancer?

    Hormones are chemical signals made by various glands in our bodies. They are released into the bloodstream and can activate different processes in different cells and tissues.

    Hormones are very important for the normal functioning of our bodies, but some types of cancers also need hormones in order to grow.

    Prostate cancers that are “hormone-sensitive” need male sex hormones (also called androgens) to grow. Testosterone, which is primarily produced in the testicles, is an example of an androgen.

    How are hormone-sensitive cancers treated?

    Hormone therapies work either by reducing androgen levels, or by blocking the function of androgens. This can slow down or even kill hormone-sensitive prostate cancers, since they depend on androgens for their continued growth and survival.

    Androgen-deprivation therapy is usually the first hormone therapy those with prostate cancer will receive. It aims to reduce the levels of androgen produced by the testicles, either through surgical or chemical castration.

    Other types of hormone therapy, which can also be used in combination with androgen-deprivation therapy, include androgen-receptor blockers. These drugs bind to cell receptors, blocking the interaction between the androgens and the cancer cells. This means the cancer cells can’t access the androgens they need to grow.



    Read more:
    Every cancer is unique – why different cancers require different treatments, and how evolution drives drug resistance

    Of course, hormones are also necessary for normal bodily functions, meaning blocking them has side effects. Hormone therapies for prostate cancer commonly have side effects such as erectile dysfunction, weight gain, fatigue and osteoporosis, which causes bones to become weak and brittle.

    While hormone therapy may not be pleasant, it is an effective treatment option. Prostate cancers which become insensitive to hormone therapies are much more difficult to treat and generally considered incurable.

    Besides hormone therapy, prostate cancer may also be treated with surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy – it depends on the patient.

    In addition, many new treatments for prostate cancers are currently under investigation, including laser procedures to remove cancer cells and CAR T therapy, which involves transforming a patient’s own immune cells into cancer-fighting cells.

    For patients whose prostate cancer has spread to their bones, treatments are usually aimed at stopping the cancer from spreading further and reducing symptoms.

    Biden and his family are now said to be reviewing treatment options.

    Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

    John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

    – ref. Joe Biden has advanced prostate cancer with a Gleason score of 9. What does this mean? – https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-has-advanced-prostate-cancer-with-a-gleason-score-of-9-what-does-this-mean-256998

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate scientists are trusted globally, just not as much as other scientists – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Omid Ghasemi, Research Associate in Behavioural Science at the Institute for Climate Risk & Response, UNSW Sydney

    I. Noyan Yilmaz, Shutterstock

    Societies increasingly rely on scientists to guide decisions in times of uncertainty, from pandemic outbreaks to the rise of artificial intelligence.

    Addressing climate change is no different. For governments wanting to introduce ambitious climate policies, public trust in climate scientists is pivotal, because it can determine whether voters support or resist those efforts.

    So do people trust climate scientists, and what affects levels of trust? Our new study shows climate scientists are less trusted than other types of scientists globally. But there are profound variations in this trust gap between countries, and within them.

    Finding ways to increase trust in climate scientists is crucial if the world is to implement effective policies to avert dangerous global warming.

    Low trust in climate scientists may hinder effective climate science communication and reduce public engagement with climate solutions.
    Mozgova, Shutterstock.

    Examining trust in science

    We collaborated with an international team of researchers to analyse data from one of the largest cross-national surveys of public attitudes toward science. The dataset includes responses from nearly 70,000 people across 68 countries. It offers a rare global snapshot of how people perceive scientists in general, and climate scientists in particular.

    Each of these people rated their trust in climate scientists on a five-point scale, with a five indicating very high trust and a one being not trusted at all.

    Trust in scientists more generally was assessed using a 12-item questionnaire that measured perceptions of expertise, integrity, benevolence and openness. The responses were averaged to create a composite trust score. Higher scores reflected higher levels of trust.

    We found trust in scientists was moderately strong worldwide, as it was above the midpoint of the scale (averaging 3.6 out of 5). But trust in climate scientists was slightly lower (averaging 3.5). The difference between the two scores is what we call the “trust gap”.

    In 43 of the 68 countries, the trust gap was statistically significant, with people reporting lower trust in climate scientists than in scientists in general.

    The size of the trust gap varied between countries. In Europe, Oceania (including Australia and New Zealand) and North America the gap tended to be smaller. Larger gaps emerged in parts of Latin America and Africa.

    The Democratic Republic of the Congo had the widest gap, with climate scientists trusted less than in any other country. This may reflect local concerns that global climate agendas — often supported by international scientists — prioritise resource extraction for foreign renewable energy demands over local interests. Such feelings may be particularly acute in regions where mining has brought limited community benefit.

    Six countries bucked the trend. Climate scientists were more trusted than scientists overall in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Egypt, Israel and Germany.

    In China and Germany, this may reflect strong investment in green energy, high levels of public support for climate action, and the visible role climate scientists play in shaping policy.

    What’s going on here?

    Not surprisingly, people with more positive views of science tended to express higher trust in scientists and even more so, climate scientists. But people with dim views of scientists were less trusting of climate scientists.

    Age also played a role. Older people tended to trust scientists more than younger people. But younger people were more likely to trust climate scientists.

    Climate scientists were generally less trusted than scientists regardless of gender. While men reported slightly lower trust in scientists than women did, the difference was not statistically significant.

    Among all the variables we examined, political orientation emerged as one of the strongest factors associated with trust in climate scientists. People with right-leaning or conservative views reported lower trust in climate scientists compared with those with more left-leaning or liberal views.

    However, the meaning of terms such as “liberal” and “conservative” can vary considerably between countries. For example, in Australia, the Liberal Party is politically right-leaning. But in the United States, “liberal” typically refers to left-leaning or progressive views. This variation makes cross-national comparisons complex and requires careful interpretation of results.

    As a particular person’s political orientation shifted further to the right, the trust gap between climate scientists and scientists widened.

    In 28 countries across the Americas, Europe and Oceania, right-leaning orientation was associated not only with lower trust in climate scientists than people who leaned to the left, but also with a larger gap between trust for scientists generally and trust for climate scientists.

    In a smaller subset of countries, particularly in parts of Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe, the pattern reversed – right-leaning individuals expressed greater trust in climate scientists than their left-leaning counterparts.

    These findings suggest it is not political orientation alone that drives public trust, but how climate issues are framed in political discourse. In many Western countries, public messaging around climate change — particularly from conservative parties and media — has cast doubt on the credibility of climate science. This politicisation, often amplified by vested interests such as fossil fuel lobbies, may help explain the erosion of trust among some conservative groups.

    Closing the trust gap

    Trust alone will not solve the climate crisis, but it plays a crucial role in shaping how societies respond to scientific guidance.

    Ambitious, evidence-based policies require public support to succeed. A persistent trust gap — no matter how small — can undermine that support and help explain why many governments continue to fall short of their climate targets.

    Closing the trust gap through transparent communication, inclusive public engagement, and consistent political leadership is essential for turning awareness into action.

    Omid Ghasemi receives funding from the Australian Academy of Science.

    Ben Newell receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Climate scientists are trusted globally, just not as much as other scientists – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-are-trusted-globally-just-not-as-much-as-other-scientists-heres-why-256441

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Climate scientists are trusted globally, just not as much as other scientists – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Omid Ghasemi, Research Associate in Behavioural Science at the Institute for Climate Risk & Response, UNSW Sydney

    I. Noyan Yilmaz, Shutterstock

    Societies increasingly rely on scientists to guide decisions in times of uncertainty, from pandemic outbreaks to the rise of artificial intelligence.

    Addressing climate change is no different. For governments wanting to introduce ambitious climate policies, public trust in climate scientists is pivotal, because it can determine whether voters support or resist those efforts.

    So do people trust climate scientists, and what affects levels of trust? Our new study shows climate scientists are less trusted than other types of scientists globally. But there are profound variations in this trust gap between countries, and within them.

    Finding ways to increase trust in climate scientists is crucial if the world is to implement effective policies to avert dangerous global warming.

    Low trust in climate scientists may hinder effective climate science communication and reduce public engagement with climate solutions.
    Mozgova, Shutterstock.

    Examining trust in science

    We collaborated with an international team of researchers to analyse data from one of the largest cross-national surveys of public attitudes toward science. The dataset includes responses from nearly 70,000 people across 68 countries. It offers a rare global snapshot of how people perceive scientists in general, and climate scientists in particular.

    Each of these people rated their trust in climate scientists on a five-point scale, with a five indicating very high trust and a one being not trusted at all.

    Trust in scientists more generally was assessed using a 12-item questionnaire that measured perceptions of expertise, integrity, benevolence and openness. The responses were averaged to create a composite trust score. Higher scores reflected higher levels of trust.

    We found trust in scientists was moderately strong worldwide, as it was above the midpoint of the scale (averaging 3.6 out of 5). But trust in climate scientists was slightly lower (averaging 3.5). The difference between the two scores is what we call the “trust gap”.

    In 43 of the 68 countries, the trust gap was statistically significant, with people reporting lower trust in climate scientists than in scientists in general.

    The size of the trust gap varied between countries. In Europe, Oceania (including Australia and New Zealand) and North America the gap tended to be smaller. Larger gaps emerged in parts of Latin America and Africa.

    The Democratic Republic of the Congo had the widest gap, with climate scientists trusted less than in any other country. This may reflect local concerns that global climate agendas — often supported by international scientists — prioritise resource extraction for foreign renewable energy demands over local interests. Such feelings may be particularly acute in regions where mining has brought limited community benefit.

    Six countries bucked the trend. Climate scientists were more trusted than scientists overall in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Egypt, Israel and Germany.

    In China and Germany, this may reflect strong investment in green energy, high levels of public support for climate action, and the visible role climate scientists play in shaping policy.

    What’s going on here?

    Not surprisingly, people with more positive views of science tended to express higher trust in scientists and even more so, climate scientists. But people with dim views of scientists were less trusting of climate scientists.

    Age also played a role. Older people tended to trust scientists more than younger people. But younger people were more likely to trust climate scientists.

    Climate scientists were generally less trusted than scientists regardless of gender. While men reported slightly lower trust in scientists than women did, the difference was not statistically significant.

    Among all the variables we examined, political orientation emerged as one of the strongest factors associated with trust in climate scientists. People with right-leaning or conservative views reported lower trust in climate scientists compared with those with more left-leaning or liberal views.

    However, the meaning of terms such as “liberal” and “conservative” can vary considerably between countries. For example, in Australia, the Liberal Party is politically right-leaning. But in the United States, “liberal” typically refers to left-leaning or progressive views. This variation makes cross-national comparisons complex and requires careful interpretation of results.

    As a particular person’s political orientation shifted further to the right, the trust gap between climate scientists and scientists widened.

    In 28 countries across the Americas, Europe and Oceania, right-leaning orientation was associated not only with lower trust in climate scientists than people who leaned to the left, but also with a larger gap between trust for scientists generally and trust for climate scientists.

    In a smaller subset of countries, particularly in parts of Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe, the pattern reversed – right-leaning individuals expressed greater trust in climate scientists than their left-leaning counterparts.

    These findings suggest it is not political orientation alone that drives public trust, but how climate issues are framed in political discourse. In many Western countries, public messaging around climate change — particularly from conservative parties and media — has cast doubt on the credibility of climate science. This politicisation, often amplified by vested interests such as fossil fuel lobbies, may help explain the erosion of trust among some conservative groups.

    Closing the trust gap

    Trust alone will not solve the climate crisis, but it plays a crucial role in shaping how societies respond to scientific guidance.

    Ambitious, evidence-based policies require public support to succeed. A persistent trust gap — no matter how small — can undermine that support and help explain why many governments continue to fall short of their climate targets.

    Closing the trust gap through transparent communication, inclusive public engagement, and consistent political leadership is essential for turning awareness into action.

    Omid Ghasemi receives funding from the Australian Academy of Science.

    Ben Newell receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Climate scientists are trusted globally, just not as much as other scientists – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-are-trusted-globally-just-not-as-much-as-other-scientists-heres-why-256441

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Joe Biden has advanced prostate cancer with a Gleason score of 9. What does this mean?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

    Former US President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that has already spread to his bones.

    A statement Biden’s office issued on Sunday revealed Biden was diagnosed after experiencing urinary issues.

    Biden’s office said his cancer has a Gleason score of nine out of ten. It also said his cancer “appears to be hormone-sensitive, which allows for effective management”.

    So what is a Gleason score? And what does it mean for a cancer to be hormone-sensitive?

    What is prostate cancer?

    Prostate cancer is any cancer that begins in the prostate, part of the male reproductive system. This small golf ball-sized gland is located below the bladder.

    The prostate is below the bladder.
    izunna/Shutterstock

    Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men worldwide. In Australia, one in six men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer by the age of 85.

    Some types of prostate cancer are low risk, grow very slowly, and may not require immediate treatment. Others are highly aggressive and can spread to other tissues and organs.

    What are the symptoms of prostate cancer?

    Early prostate cancers do not usually cause symptoms, and therefore can be difficult to detect.

    At later stages, prostate cancer symptoms can include frequent urination, pain and/or a weak stream while urinating, blood in urine/semen, back/pelvic pain, and weakness in the legs or feet.

    Advanced prostate cancer which has spread to bones can cause pain, fatigue and weight loss.



    Read more:
    How does cancer spread to other parts of the body?

    What is the Gleason score?

    The Gleason score is one way of measuring the aggressiveness of prostate cancers. It assists doctors in categorising prostate cancers into different groups and in selecting appropriate treatments for patients.

    To calculate the Gleason score, clinicians take multiple samples of the tumour, called biopsies. To obtain each sample, a small needle is inserted into the tumour and a sliver of tissue (usually around 12 millimetres long) is extracted for testing.

    Because the different regions of the tumour can have different cancer cells present, pathologists then pick two different sections of the tumour biopsy they think best represent the whole tumour.

    Then, they grade each of the two sections with a score from 1 to 5. Grade 1 means the cancer cells present look a lot like normal, healthy cells. Grade 5 means the cancer cells look very abnormal. To get a patient’s Gleason score, the two grades are added together.

    Patients with a Gleason score of 6 or less are considered low risk and may not require immediate treatment.

    A Gleason score of 8–10 indicates a highly aggressive prostate cancer that will likely grow quickly.

    In Australia, 67.9% of men at diagnosis have a Gleason score of 7 or less.

    It’s not the only tool

    The Gleason score is only one tool health-care professionals use to guide the diagnosis and treatment of patients.

    Other tools include blood tests for prostate-specific antigen (PSA, which is often elevated in prostate cancer patients), physical examinations (such as a digital rectal examination), and imaging of the tumour (such as via CT scans, MRI, or ultrasounds).

    While we don’t have all of the information about Biden’s diagnosis, a Gleason score of 9 indicates that his cancer is very aggressive.

    What is hormone-sensitive prostate cancer?

    Hormones are chemical signals made by various glands in our bodies. They are released into the bloodstream and can activate different processes in different cells and tissues.

    Hormones are very important for the normal functioning of our bodies, but some types of cancers also need hormones in order to grow.

    Prostate cancers that are “hormone-sensitive” need male sex hormones (also called androgens) to grow. Testosterone, which is primarily produced in the testicles, is an example of an androgen.

    How are hormone-sensitive cancers treated?

    Hormone therapies work either by reducing androgen levels, or by blocking the function of androgens. This can slow down or even kill hormone-sensitive prostate cancers, since they depend on androgens for their continued growth and survival.

    Androgen-deprivation therapy is usually the first hormone therapy those with prostate cancer will receive. It aims to reduce the levels of androgen produced by the testicles, either through surgical or chemical castration.

    Other types of hormone therapy, which can also be used in combination with androgen-deprivation therapy, include androgen-receptor blockers. These drugs bind to cell receptors, blocking the interaction between the androgens and the cancer cells. This means the cancer cells can’t access the androgens they need to grow.



    Read more:
    Every cancer is unique – why different cancers require different treatments, and how evolution drives drug resistance

    Of course, hormones are also necessary for normal bodily functions, meaning blocking them has side effects. Hormone therapies for prostate cancer commonly have side effects such as erectile dysfunction, weight gain, fatigue and osteoporosis, which causes bones to become weak and brittle.

    While hormone therapy may not be pleasant, it is an effective treatment option. Prostate cancers which become insensitive to hormone therapies are much more difficult to treat and generally considered incurable.

    Besides hormone therapy, prostate cancer may also be treated with surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy – it depends on the patient.

    In addition, many new treatments for prostate cancers are currently under investigation, including laser procedures to remove cancer cells and CAR T therapy, which involves transforming a patient’s own immune cells into cancer-fighting cells.

    For patients whose prostate cancer has spread to their bones, treatments are usually aimed at stopping the cancer from spreading further and reducing symptoms.

    Biden and his family are now said to be reviewing treatment options.

    Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

    John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

    – ref. Joe Biden has advanced prostate cancer with a Gleason score of 9. What does this mean? – https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-has-advanced-prostate-cancer-with-a-gleason-score-of-9-what-does-this-mean-256998

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Russia is labelling Oscar Jenkins a ‘mercenary’, not a prisoner of war. What’s the difference – and why does this matter?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shannon Bosch, Associate Professor (Law), Edith Cowan University

    Oscar Jenkins, a 33-year-old former teacher from Melbourne, was one of many foreigners who responded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call in 2022 for volunteers to join Ukraine’s armed forces to help repel Russia’s invasion.

    In early 2024, Jenkins joined Ukraine’s International Legion of Territorial Defence, which has attracted some 20,000 fighters from 50 countries since the war began. He had no previous military experience, but this wasn’t a requirement to join.

    In December, Jenkins was captured by Russian forces in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine and accused of serving as a “mercenary” in Ukraine’s 66th Mechanised Brigade’s 402nd Rifle Battalion. He was tried in a Russian court and sentenced on May 16 to 13 years imprisonment in a maximum-security penal colony.

    When a foreigner volunteers to fight in a war, their legal status under international law can be complicated.

    Are they a soldier with the full authorisation of one of the warring parties to engage in hostilities? Or are they an illegal mercenary?

    And what happens if they are captured?

    Why legal status matters

    The answers to these questions have very real importance to the thousands of foreigners who have joined Ukraine’s International Legion since 2022.

    Russian authorities have classified all of Ukraine’s foreigner fighters as “mercenaries”. They’ve used this label to deny foreign fighters the status of “prisoner of war” (POW), with the requisite protections that come along with that under international humanitarian law.

    While foreigners are permitted under international law to enlist in the armed forces of a state for political or moral reasons, mercenaries have historically been outlawed due to their sole motivation being financial gain.

    International humanitarian law (the rules that govern war) define mercenaries as individuals who are not nationals or residents of a state engaged in war and are recruited to fight outside that state’s official armed forces.

    They are motivated solely by private gain (like money or promises of reward), often well in excess of what the traditional armed forces are paid. Mercenaries are essentially professional soldiers who sell their services to a state without any real ties to that country.

    Once a fighter is classified as a “mercenary”, they lose all the legal protections that are traditionally afforded lawful combatants.

    This includes prisoner of war status if they are captured and immunity from prosecution for fighting in a conflict. Prisoners of war are also entitled to humane treatment and access to food and medical care. And they cannot be subjected to sham trials or torture.

    According to my research, many of the foreign nationals who joined the International Legion were motivated by a desire to defend Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. They were sworn into Ukraine’s armed forces and paid the same as a Ukrainian soldier of equal rank.

    Once enlisted in the armed forces, they were immediately exempt from “mercenary” status, irrespective of their motivation for joining.

    As such, these foreign fighters should be entitled to the full range of protections guaranteed to members of Ukraine’s armed forces under the Geneva Conventions.

    Labelling lawful foreign members of the Ukrainian armed forces as “mercenaries”, and denying them their protections, is an abuse of international law.

    How can Australia protect its nationals?

    If an Australian enlists in Ukraine’s armed forces and is captured by Russian forces, there is a limited toolkit the Australian government can use to help him or her. However, it is not powerless.

    Through its embassy in Moscow, Australia can request access to detainees to assess their welfare while in prison. Russia can, however, decline this access. Details of a detainee’s capture may also be withheld.

    Australia can also apply diplomatic pressure to ensure humane treatment of prisoners and their full POW rights.

    This can be done by working with international bodies, such as the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention or organisations like the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC), which can request access to detainees.

    It appears the government is already doing some of these things. According to Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the government has been working with Ukraine and the ICRC to advocate for Jenkins’ welfare and release, and providing consular support to Jenkins’ family.

    Australia also has an obligation to warn its citizens they will likely face severe consequences if they travel to Ukraine to fight and are captured by Russian forces, given Russia’s misuse of the “mercenary” label.

    Through back-channel negotiations, Australia could also push Ukraine or its allies to include Australians being held by Russia in future prisoner swaps.

    In January of this year, Ukraine and Russia carried out such an exchange of 470 prisoners from both nations. And in talks last week in Turkey, both sides agreed to release another 1,000 prisoners on each side.

    Such exchanges have involved foreign fighters in the past. In 2022, 10 foreign citizens were included in a prisoner swap, including five Britons, two Americans, a Croatian, a Swede and a Moroccan. Several of them had been convicted of being mercenaries and sentenced to death after a Russian sham trial.

    There is no guarantee Jenkins would qualify for such an exchange, however, if Russia continues to classify him as a mercenary.

    Shannon Bosch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Russia is labelling Oscar Jenkins a ‘mercenary’, not a prisoner of war. What’s the difference – and why does this matter? – https://theconversation.com/russia-is-labelling-oscar-jenkins-a-mercenary-not-a-prisoner-of-war-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-this-matter-256996

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The re-emergence of polio in Papua New Guinea shows global eradication remains elusive

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Michael Toole, Associate Principal Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    Last week the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a polio outbreak in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

    The highly infectious virus was found in two healthy, polio-vaccinated children who were screened following detection of the virus during routine wastewater sampling in Lae, PNG’s second largest city. Wastewater samples are also positive in the capital Port Moresby, indicating the potential of spread around the country.

    The strain has been identified as circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2, similar genetically to a strain circulating in Indonesia.

    So what does this mean? And what will happen now in PNG?

    First, what is polio?

    Polio, or poliomyelitis, is a highly contagious disease caused by the poliovirus. It primarily affects children.

    Most infections don’t cause significant symptoms and go largely unnoticed. But less than 1% of infections result in paralysis.

    Poliovirus is spread by person-to-person contact or the ingestion of contaminated virus from faeces. The virus multiplies in the gut of people who are infected, and they shed the virus in their stool for several weeks. In this way it can spread through a community, especially in areas with poor sanitation.

    A recent review also suggested a greater role for transmission via respiratory particles than we previously thought.

    Wild poliovirus (as distinct from vaccine-derived poliovirus, which we’ll discuss shortly) was a major public health issue prior to the rollout of vaccination in 1950s. This campaign led to the virtual elimination of the disease in rich countries such as Australia.

    Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative was launched in 1988, cases have decreased by 99% globally. Wild poliovirus remains endemic only in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Polio is caused by the poliovirus.
    Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

    Polio vaccines

    There are two types of vaccines – the oral polio vaccine and the inactivated polio vaccine.

    Delivered as two drops in the mouth at least four times in early childhood, the oral vaccine contains a live-attenuated (weakened) form of the poliovirus. It triggers a strong immune reaction in the gut that slows the replication of wild poliovirus, and reduces shedding in the stool, limiting transmission.

    The oral vaccine does carry a small risk of the weakened vaccine strain causing paralysis. This occurs in
    roughly one in 2.7 million doses of the oral vaccine administered, usually at the first dose.

    The inactivated polio vaccine (part of the routine immunisation program in Australia) contains an inactivated or dead form of the poliovirus, which is unable to cause polio in the recipient.

    Given as an injection, this vaccine stimulates the immune system to produce protective antibodies in the blood against poliovirus. Three doses of the inactivated vaccine are highly protective against developing symptoms and paralysis from polio.

    However, this vaccine is thought not to be as effective as the oral vaccine at preventing infection and shedding in the gut. Therefore, it doesn’t prevent transmission.

    What is vaccine-derived poliovirus?

    As the weakened poliovirus in the oral vaccine is still shed in the stool, it can spread in communities with poor sanitation. The vaccine strain can mutate to a form that can cause paralysis, like wild poliovirus. The result, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, is a problem particularly when polio immunisation rates are low.

    The risk of international spread of vaccine-derived poliovirus has been assessed as high by the WHO and United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There were outbreaks in 39 countries in 2023–24.

    A novel oral polio vaccine, nOPV2, which is less likely to mutate, has been used in outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus since 2021.

    Routine vaccination with the inactivated polio vaccine is key to preventing vaccine-derived poliovirus, and is recommended by WHO. The polio endgame will involve this transition from the oral vaccine to the inactivated vaccine.

    In 2019, all countries had introduced the inactivated vaccine. However uptake remains low because of a lack of resources and inadequate access to health services in poor countries.

    What happens now in PNG?

    The PNG government has responded swiftly to activate its polio emergency response plan, supported by partners including WHO, UNICEF and the Australian government.

    Notably, PNG’s vaccination rate is among the lowest in the world, with only about 50% of children born each year receiving the recommended childhood vaccines, including the oral polio vaccine. To induce herd immunity and prevent outbreaks of disease, coverage should be at least 95%.

    PNG was declared polio free in 2000. But there was an outbreak in 2018 of vaccine-derived polio type 1 with 26 cases across nine provinces. The outbreak was brought under control through supplementary rounds of vaccination, enhanced surveillance, and expanded communication and community engagement.

    There are many lessons to be learned from the successful response to the 2018 polio outbreak. These three pillars of the response remain relevant:

    • mass vaccination (using nOPV2)
    • enhanced surveillance for cases and wastewater sampling
    • communication (through traditional and social media) and localised community engagement.

    Further research will be crucial to understand where transmission is occurring and target the response accordingly. This includes the question of potential for spread between Indonesia and PNG – a neglected health security issue.

    How about the risk in Australia?

    While the risk of spread of polio in Australia is low, the virus does not respect borders, and we cannot become complacent.

    Australia’s overall coverage with the inactivated vaccine is close to 95% but there has been a concerning decline in childhood immunisation since the COVID pandemic. Australia must address this and maintain its polio wastewater monitoring system.

    Supporting PNG and working with other countries towards global polio eradication is the best way Australia can protect itself.

    This outbreak is a timely reminder that the last mile in the global eradication of polio remains elusive. As we emerge from a pandemic, the need for international cooperation, strengthening health systems and responding swiftly to health emergencies such as polio couldn’t be stronger.

    Michael Toole has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Suman Majumdar, through the Burnet Institute receives grant funding from the Victorian Government and the Australian Government via the National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia, the Medical Research Future Fund and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Fredrick Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The re-emergence of polio in Papua New Guinea shows global eradication remains elusive – https://theconversation.com/the-re-emergence-of-polio-in-papua-new-guinea-shows-global-eradication-remains-elusive-256899

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics, protest and some seriously inappropriate songs: who gets censored at Eurovision, and who doesn’t?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University

    As always, Eurovision 2025 was full of glitter, costume reveals, divas, spectacle and, of course, controversy. From ongoing calls to ban Israel from participating, to one song that had to be edited since it was too inappropriate, here’s what you may have missed from this year’s contest.

    A milkshake meltdown

    For Australian viewers, the final may have been a bit of a letdown because, for the second year in a row, our contestant failed to get past the semis.

    Go-Jo’s Milkshake Man seemed like a strong offering, with its daft and suggestive lyrics, huge energy and oversized blender prop – but some weak vocals on the night left us in the cold.

    Other wacky entries of the uniquely Eurovision variety fared better, though. Sweden’s ode to saunas, Bara Bada Bastu, started the night as the favourite to win and ended high with a fourth placing, just behind Estonia’s rubbery-legged Tommy Cash, whose love song to coffee may have just been more relatable to voters.

    Serving what?

    More controversial was Miriana Conte’s song for Malta, originally titled Serving Kant, with kant being the Maltese word for singing. But this thinly disguised attempt to celebrate “serving cunt” was deemed inappropriate by the European Broadcasting Union, and reworked as simply Serving.

    This performance is part of a long Eurovision tradition of celebrating queer culture. Each year, multiple entries use LGBTQIA+ imagery, tropes and lyrics to celebrate the theme of being who you are.

    Last year’s event marked the first time two non-binary performers were featured in the contest. One of them, Switzerlans’s Nemo, won. As a side note, Nemo’s return performance this year may be one of the best things to ever grace the Eurovision stage.

    But it seems Malta’s cheeky play on the theme didn’t pay off, as it landed them in 17th place by the end of the voting.

    Other stand-out performances included Finland’s Erika Vikman, who outperformed a whole crop of big-voiced divas in sparkly body suits by riding a giant flaming microphone to the roof of the stadium during the, ahem, climax to Ich Komme (which translates to “I’m coming”).

    Less in your face, yet strangely compelling, were the women of Latvia’s folk band Tautumeitas. In their forest-nymph-axolotl (?) costumes, they delivered a flawless and gentle performance.

    A heated, close race to the top

    The winner was, as is often the case at Eurovision, a more serious song that showcased a high level of musicianship and vocal ability. Austria’s JJ performance of Wasted Love was stripped-back compared to most of the rivals.

    JJ took to the stage alone, using a completely black and white palette that stood out against the reds that dominated the rest of the night. The way he used his body onstage, and the dynamism of his soprano voice – moving from a conventional pop vocal style to a more operatic delivery – was compellingly dramatic, and was rewarded by the juries and public voters.

    It was a close race for the top spot however. I imagine the broadcasting union breathed a sigh of relief when Austria knocked Israel into second place at the last moment.

    Israel’s presence in the contest has been a source of division and conflict since the events of October 7. For two years there have been highly publicised calls to expel Israel from the competition, in light of the extreme atrocities and human rights abuses taking place on the ground in Gaza.



    Read more:
    1 in 5 Gazans face starvation. Can the law force Israel to act?

    Multiple pro-Palestinian rallies took to the streets in the host city, Basel, and protesters trying to disrupt the Israeli performance found their way into the arena during the rehearsals and final. While they did not make it into the broadcast, there were reports of audience members being removed, staff being hit with paint, and violent clashes with security and police.

    Beyond this, 70 ex-competitors and, separately, more than 4,000 Nordic music workers put their names on open letters protesting Israel’s inclusion in the contest. But these attempts failed, partly because the countries involved did not threaten to withdraw themselves if Israel participated (which was how Russia was expelled from the 2022 contest, in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine).

    What can we expect moving forward

    It’s worth considering what Israel’s inclusion in the contest does allow. In recently published work, my coauthors and I consider what it means to face up to some of the uglier aspects of music and music-making – and to sit with the discomfort, rather than ignore it.

    If Israel had been excluded, those calling for its exclusion may have achieved a sense that a certain wrong had been righted, and the Eurovision party could go on, free from worry.

    Yet the realities of events in Gaza would not have disappeared. Viewers at home would simply not have to think about them.

    Israel’s inclusion – and the opposition to it – forces us to ask what role, if any, cultural institutions can play in helping put a stop to what the International Court of Justice has said can plausibly be called a genocide.

    While the broadcasting union could perhaps put pressure on Israel with a ban, the fissures of Israel’s continued inclusion have shone a spotlight on other types of pressure and resistance – and the power music has in bringing people together for the explicit purpose of being political.

    Catherine Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics, protest and some seriously inappropriate songs: who gets censored at Eurovision, and who doesn’t? – https://theconversation.com/politics-protest-and-some-seriously-inappropriate-songs-who-gets-censored-at-eurovision-and-who-doesnt-256447

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The re-emergence of polio in Papua New Guinea shows global eradication remains elusive

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Toole, Associate Principal Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    Last week the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a polio outbreak in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

    The highly infectious virus was found in two healthy, polio-vaccinated children who were screened following detection of the virus during routine wastewater sampling in Lae, PNG’s second largest city. Wastewater samples are also positive in the capital Port Moresby, indicating the potential of spread around the country.

    The strain has been identified as circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2, similar genetically to a strain circulating in Indonesia.

    So what does this mean? And what will happen now in PNG?

    First, what is polio?

    Polio, or poliomyelitis, is a highly contagious disease caused by the poliovirus. It primarily affects children.

    Most infections don’t cause significant symptoms and go largely unnoticed. But less than 1% of infections result in paralysis.

    Poliovirus is spread by person-to-person contact or the ingestion of contaminated virus from faeces. The virus multiplies in the gut of people who are infected, and they shed the virus in their stool for several weeks. In this way it can spread through a community, especially in areas with poor sanitation.

    A recent review also suggested a greater role for transmission via respiratory particles than we previously thought.

    Wild poliovirus (as distinct from vaccine-derived poliovirus, which we’ll discuss shortly) was a major public health issue prior to the rollout of vaccination in 1950s. This campaign led to the virtual elimination of the disease in rich countries such as Australia.

    Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative was launched in 1988, cases have decreased by 99% globally. Wild poliovirus remains endemic only in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Polio is caused by the poliovirus.
    Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

    Polio vaccines

    There are two types of vaccines – the oral polio vaccine and the inactivated polio vaccine.

    Delivered as two drops in the mouth at least four times in early childhood, the oral vaccine contains a live-attenuated (weakened) form of the poliovirus. It triggers a strong immune reaction in the gut that slows the replication of wild poliovirus, and reduces shedding in the stool, limiting transmission.

    The oral vaccine does carry a small risk of the weakened vaccine strain causing paralysis. This occurs in
    roughly one in 2.7 million doses of the oral vaccine administered, usually at the first dose.

    The inactivated polio vaccine (part of the routine immunisation program in Australia) contains an inactivated or dead form of the poliovirus, which is unable to cause polio in the recipient.

    Given as an injection, this vaccine stimulates the immune system to produce protective antibodies in the blood against poliovirus. Three doses of the inactivated vaccine are highly protective against developing symptoms and paralysis from polio.

    However, this vaccine is thought not to be as effective as the oral vaccine at preventing infection and shedding in the gut. Therefore, it doesn’t prevent transmission.

    What is vaccine-derived poliovirus?

    As the weakened poliovirus in the oral vaccine is still shed in the stool, it can spread in communities with poor sanitation. The vaccine strain can mutate to a form that can cause paralysis, like wild poliovirus. The result, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, is a problem particularly when polio immunisation rates are low.

    The risk of international spread of vaccine-derived poliovirus has been assessed as high by the WHO and United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There were outbreaks in 39 countries in 2023–24.

    A novel oral polio vaccine, nOPV2, which is less likely to mutate, has been used in outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus since 2021.

    Routine vaccination with the inactivated polio vaccine is key to preventing vaccine-derived poliovirus, and is recommended by WHO. The polio endgame will involve this transition from the oral vaccine to the inactivated vaccine.

    In 2019, all countries had introduced the inactivated vaccine. However uptake remains low because of a lack of resources and inadequate access to health services in poor countries.

    What happens now in PNG?

    The PNG government has responded swiftly to activate its polio emergency response plan, supported by partners including WHO, UNICEF and the Australian government.

    Notably, PNG’s vaccination rate is among the lowest in the world, with only about 50% of children born each year receiving the recommended childhood vaccines, including the oral polio vaccine. To induce herd immunity and prevent outbreaks of disease, coverage should be at least 95%.

    PNG was declared polio free in 2000. But there was an outbreak in 2018 of vaccine-derived polio type 1 with 26 cases across nine provinces. The outbreak was brought under control through supplementary rounds of vaccination, enhanced surveillance, and expanded communication and community engagement.

    There are many lessons to be learned from the successful response to the 2018 polio outbreak. These three pillars of the response remain relevant:

    • mass vaccination (using nOPV2)
    • enhanced surveillance for cases and wastewater sampling
    • communication (through traditional and social media) and localised community engagement.

    Further research will be crucial to understand where transmission is occurring and target the response accordingly. This includes the question of potential for spread between Indonesia and PNG – a neglected health security issue.

    How about the risk in Australia?

    While the risk of spread of polio in Australia is low, the virus does not respect borders, and we cannot become complacent.

    Australia’s overall coverage with the inactivated vaccine is close to 95% but there has been a concerning decline in childhood immunisation since the COVID pandemic. Australia must address this and maintain its polio wastewater monitoring system.

    Supporting PNG and working with other countries towards global polio eradication is the best way Australia can protect itself.

    This outbreak is a timely reminder that the last mile in the global eradication of polio remains elusive. As we emerge from a pandemic, the need for international cooperation, strengthening health systems and responding swiftly to health emergencies such as polio couldn’t be stronger.

    Michael Toole has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Suman Majumdar, through the Burnet Institute receives grant funding from the Victorian Government and the Australian Government via the National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia, the Medical Research Future Fund and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Fredrick Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The re-emergence of polio in Papua New Guinea shows global eradication remains elusive – https://theconversation.com/the-re-emergence-of-polio-in-papua-new-guinea-shows-global-eradication-remains-elusive-256899

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: An online travel company just collapsed. Here’s how to avoid being left stranded by an online deal

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Madalyn Scerri, Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Hospitality, Torrens University Australia

    Viacheslav Lopatin/Shutterstock

    Traveldream.com.au sold discounted holidays – curated hiking tours, boutique cruises and cultural getaways through a slick website and polished social media ads. But news emerged last week that the Melbourne-based travel company has collapsed into administration, leaving customers out of pocket by thousands of dollars, and in some cases, stranded overseas.

    What many didn’t know was that Traveldream hadn’t been formally accredited with the leading industry body since 2020. Its status under the Australian Travel Accreditation Scheme, run by the Australian Travel Industry Association, had been cancelled.

    To make matters worse, most travel insurance policies don’t cover insolvency, meaning many customers have no way to recover their losses.

    Australians are expected to spend over A$2 billion booking holidays online in 2024–25.

    Big name platforms such as Booking.com and Expedia account for about 60% of this activity. But many travellers are also turning to smaller or lesser-known providers offering flashy deals and lower prices, often with fewer safeguards.

    So, how can you protect yourself? Start with these five checks.

    1. Don’t be swayed by slick websites or social media ads

    It’s a common tactic, and one that’s hard to resist. You’re scrolling, you see a dreamy image, the price is tempting, and suddenly you’re halfway through checkout.

    But a polished ad doesn’t guarantee legitimacy.

    Travel-related scams are on the rise, especially involving online-only sellers.

    Ads on social media for idyllic vacations can be tempting, but check the fine print.
    Song_about_summer/Shutterstock

    Check for a verifiable business address, phone number and customer support. If the deal feels vague, under-priced or overly urgent, that’s a red flag.

    Look for independent reviews (on Trustpilot, Tripadvisor or Google), and check Scamwatch for known issues.

    2. Look at how the company engages with customers

    A company’s reputation isn’t just about what it promises: it’s built on how it responds to questions and complaints. Before booking, take a moment to see how the business interacts with customers online.

    Do they reply constructively to complaints? Do they offer updates or explanations when issues arise?

    Also notice the tone. Does it feel human and responsive, or generic and hands-off? That can suggest how they’ll treat you after the sale.

    Small signs can speak volumes. A page with thousands of followers but no visible engagement may indicate a paid audience – and a company that vanishes when things get difficult.

    3. Check if the company is accredited

    Another way to assess a travel company’s credibility is to check if it holds formal accreditation. This signals the company has met standards in financial security, customer service and dispute resolution.

    Search the Australian Travel Accreditation Scheme register at https://www.atas.com.au, or look for Quality Tourism Accreditation. For overseas providers, check for recognised local schemes.

    Accreditation offers extra reassurance, but it’s not the whole picture. Some large, reputable companies, such as Expedia, operate without it. If a company isn’t accredited, proceed with caution and focus on how bookings and payments are handled.

    4. Scrutinise policies carefully

    Before booking, check what happens if the provider goes bust, whether you can cancel or reschedule, and how your booking will be confirmed. Where possible, follow up directly with the hotel, airline or tour operator to make sure reservations are secured.

    Booking directly with a hotel or tour provider can ensure you are getting up-to-date availability.
    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    It’s also important to understand what travel insurance does – and doesn’t – cover.

    Company insolvency is one of the most common exclusions. Unless a policy includes “end supplier failure” or a similar clause (most don’t), you may not be able to claim a refund. Always read the Product Disclosure Statement to check exactly where you stand.

    Another safeguard is to pay with protection in mind. Although conditions vary by provider, credit cards may offer chargebacks if the goods or services aren’t delivered.

    5. Book direct where feasible

    While accredited travel agencies can be helpful for complex itineraries, like overseas trips with multiple stops or bundled services, it’s often worth booking directly with the provider when making travel arrangements online, whether that’s a hotel, airline or tour company.

    Cutting out the intermediary can offer better value, including complimentary extras, flexible cancellation and full access to loyalty programs.

    Direct bookings usually reflect real-time availability and pricing, reducing the risk of outdated information. You’ll benefit from direct communication and confirmation, making it easier to customise or resolve issues.

    If something goes wrong, there’s also greater clarity about who’s responsible – offering stronger recourse under Australian Consumer Law.

    The bottom line?

    As more Australians book holidays online, it’s becoming harder to tell what’s trustworthy and what could leave you out of pocket.

    Traveldream’s collapse is a reminder. Even in the world of digital travel deals, it pays to ask: is this company built to last, not just until your trip departs, but until you return home?

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. An online travel company just collapsed. Here’s how to avoid being left stranded by an online deal – https://theconversation.com/an-online-travel-company-just-collapsed-heres-how-to-avoid-being-left-stranded-by-an-online-deal-256878

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ambition is not a dirty word: female politicians and the ‘Lady Macbeth bias’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Professor Rebekah Russell-Bennett, Associate Dean Research, Faculty of Business, Government and Law, University of Canberra

    When the new parliament convenes after the recent election, it will feature a rarity in Australian politics. Women will lead two significant political parties at the same time: the Liberal Party’s Sussan Ley and the Greens’ Larissa Waters.

    When female political leaders show ambition, they are often portrayed in the media as grasping, selfish and power-seeking. In other words, they are the embodiment of Shakespeare’s Lady Macbeth.

    The recent negative media coverage of Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s move to the Liberal Party was reminiscent of the depiction of Julia Gillard when she became Labor leader. Price’s ambition reportedly made her selfish, while Gillard’s ambition was framed as a “moral wrong”.

    The pervasive misrepresentation of female politicians who display ambition can be thought of as “the Lady Macbeth bias”. This negative framing of ambition associates female politicians with ruthlessness and power at any cost. The prejudice reflects the central character theme in Shakespeare’s tragic play, Macbeth, of a woman whose scheming was her undoing.

    Lady Macbeth’s ambition is depicted as morally suspect and unnatural. This ambition leads to her demise.

    Highly gendered ambition

    With two new women leaders rising to the top and a record number of new female politicians in the 48th parliament, how will they be portrayed as their ambition plays out?

    The media representation of women who aspire to leadership typically depicts female ambition as a negative. This is a distraction from any objective criticism of the person. This kind of gendered approach to female politicians could be a deterrent for women who have political aspirations.

    There is a significant evidence base in academic literature that demonstrates ambition is a social construct that is highly gendered. Women politicians who show ambition are seen as unrelatable and unfeminine, while ambitious male politicians are described as visionary or strong.

    Take, for example, this recent article on Paul Keating, whose ambition is lauded, making him a “rare leader”. Let us not forgot that Keating became prime minister by challenging Bob Hawke.

    Compare the praise of Keating to the demonising of Gillard, who also challenged a sitting prime minister (Kevin Rudd) and you will see the opposite commentary. Ambition featured strongly in analysis of Gillard’s rise to power. Instead of praise for her ambition, she was often vilified, with her morality called into question.

    Rudd’s comment to her in 2010 typifies this perspective: “Julia, you’re a good person, why are you doing this?”

    The double bind

    So what is the outcome of this negative media portrayal of women in politics?

    Female politicians with ambition are perceived as less likeable and take a hit in popularity and electoral success. This phenomena has been termed the double bind, which is a paradox experienced by women leaders. To be viewed as competent, they need to display traits typically associated with men, such as ambition, competitiveness and drive. However, when they do, this in turn makes them appear not feminine enough.

    The result of this violation of gender stereotypes ranges from negative perceptions to backlash. Women can be overlooked for roles, receive less money and in the case of politics, face electoral retaliation.

    So like Lady Macbeth, ambitious leaders are punished for defying the natural order of femininity. A lose-lose situation.

    Normalise female ambition

    So what should be done? First the media need to take responsibility for the language used in headlines and stories about female politicians. A more androgynous approach to reporting on political leaders would go a long way to addressing this problem.

    Second, we the public need to decry the use of overused stereotypes in media coverage, such as the Lady Macbeth tropes, when our female leaders are critiqued. While politicians should be held to high standards of accountability, transparency and ethics, a gendered approach undermines this scrutiny and weakens our democratic system.

    Finally, we can limit “the Lady Macbeth bias” by showcasing ambitious female politicians across the political spectrum. When we normalise ambition in women, we break the association between ambition and masculinity. It is time to decouple leadership qualities from gendered stereotypes, not just for current female politicians but for the girls who are our future politicians.

    Shifting perceptions

    The Lady Macbeth theme of ambitious women being unnatural, morally bankrupt, ruthless and manipulative is a serious misrepresentation of female politicians.

    This negative portrayal is a barrier to women entering politics. Or surviving in politics.

    Politicians such as Ley, Waters and Price should be held to account, but not on gendered terms. We must stop treating female politicians as Lady Macbeth. If we do not, gender inequality in politics will prevail.

    That would be a sad future for all Australians.

    Rebekah Russell-Bennett is affiliated with the Liberal party

    – ref. Ambition is not a dirty word: female politicians and the ‘Lady Macbeth bias’ – https://theconversation.com/ambition-is-not-a-dirty-word-female-politicians-and-the-lady-macbeth-bias-256681

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why it’s time to delay tackling in junior sports until the age of 12

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joel Garrett, Lecturer in Exercise Science and Physiology, Griffith University

    Paolo Bona/Shutterstock

    Many children across Australia have begun to play their favourite contact sports like rugby league, rugby union and Australian rules football.

    Many will be just starting out during their early years of primary school.

    Yet there are growing concerns these young athletes may be at heightened risk of sports-related concussions due to their more vulnerable developing brains.

    Our new opinion article, published in Sports Medicine, presents the case for delaying all full-contact tackling until the age of 12, based on the current body of evidence and ongoing debate in the field.

    Some see this as a necessary step to safeguard children’s brains. Others worry it might leave kids unprepared for more physical challenges as they grow.

    But children are not mini adults.

    Why age 12?

    Children have thinner cranial bones, proportionally larger heads and weaker neck muscles than adults, making them more vulnerable to rotational and linear forces during head impacts.



    Read more:
    A stronger neck can help young athletes reduce their risk of concussion

    Their neural pathways are still maturing, so repeated head knocks – referred to as “sub-concussive” impacts, which don’t produce obvious concussion symptoms – may pose greater risks for long-term brain development.

    Around the ages of eight to 12 is a sweet spot for children’s cognitive and motor development, as they make significant gains in physical fitness, motor coordination, body awareness and cognitive functions such as reaction time and decision-making.

    An eight-year-old, for instance, may struggle with the rapid judgements required to align their shoulder and brace their neck properly when tackling a moving player.

    However, by 12, many can execute these decisions with greater consistency.

    Aligning physical growth with cognitive readiness can allow young athletes to enter contact situations with a firmer grasp of safe techniques and the confidence to use them during games.

    Why this might be needed

    A common misconception is delaying full-body contact means not teaching it at all.

    Children should be gradually taught skills like body positioning, safe falling and correct shoulder placement before they are faced with high-intensity collisions.

    This means children get time to master core skills of the sport, such as catching, passing, kicking and tactics, free from the added demands of body-to-body contact.

    This dual focus on skill-based contact training and fundamental sport skills promotes a more holistic athlete development aligned with childhood development.

    Unsurprisingly, studies show non-contact versions of sports have fewer head impacts than those in full-contact leagues.

    Weight-based categories, such as those used in some junior rugby competitions, aim to lower injury risks by preventing physical mismatches. However, they don’t fully address poor technique or cognitive readiness.

    Many leagues across the world are modifying contact rules to reduce youth injuries, with ice hockey the best example.

    Some ice hockey competitions in North America raised the introduction of body checking (when players crash into each other with their hips or shoulders) to 13–14 years of age, resulting in significantly lower injury rates among younger players.

    Studies also found delaying body checking did not increase concussion risk in later years, supporting the idea that “later is safer”.

    The argument against

    Delaying full-body contact (such as tackling) in youth sport remains controversial.

    Some argue early contact fosters character and builds resilience and physical readiness despite the risk to a developing brain.

    But while early findings suggest delaying contact can reduce injuries, we still don’t have enough long-term studies to prove the full impact over time.

    Delaying tackling also poses a challenge, as modifying a sport’s contact rules is complex, and cultural resistance or limited coaching resources in community leagues can hinder change.

    Still, many believe that with appropriate formats, coach education and a phased introduction, it is possible to balance skill development with athlete safety.

    A way forward

    A potential way forward involves structured, progressive skill development, and gradually teaching young players how to give and receive contact, initially in controlled, low-intensity settings. The emphasis should be focused on safe falling, bracing, neck strengthening and correct head placement.

    Some experts also recommend a broader approach that makes safety part of everything in sport, including everything from how coaches teach to the rules of the game to the overall culture.

    By ensuring consistency across coaches, referees and administrators, this model helps reduce the risk of concussions.

    With a structured progression and strong safety culture, more children will be physically and cognitively prepared to participate in full-contact sports confidently, safely and with greater long-term enjoyment and retention.

    Growing evidence supports introducing contact in a developmentally appropriate way to improve safety.

    Earlier collisions may raise the risk of concussions without offering much benefit in the long run.

    A delayed approach, with progressive skill instruction, may be safer and allow children to develop core skills first.

    It’s a way to protect young brains and ensure every child can play confidently and safely once they transition to full-contact tackling, promoting long-term participation safely.

    Jonathon Headrick is affiliated with Exercise & Sports Science Australia (ESSA).

    Joel Garrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it’s time to delay tackling in junior sports until the age of 12 – https://theconversation.com/why-its-time-to-delay-tackling-in-junior-sports-until-the-age-of-12-256466

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ahmed Ibrahim, Senior Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University

    Shutterstock/The Conversation

    It’s nearly impossible to use the internet without being asked about cookies. A typical pop-up will offer to either “accept all” or “reject all”. Sometimes, there may be a third option, or a link to further tweak your preferences.

    These pop-ups and banners are distracting, and your first reaction is likely to get them out of the way as soon as possible – perhaps by hitting that “accept all” button.

    But what are cookies, exactly? Why are we constantly asked about them, and what happens when we accept or reject them? As you will see, each choice comes with implications for your online privacy.

    What are cookies?

    Cookies are small files that web pages save to your device. They contain info meant to enhance the user experience, especially for frequently visited websites.

    This can include remembering your login information and preferred news categories or text size. Or they can help shopping sites suggest items based on your browsing history. Advertisers can track your browsing behaviour through cookies to show targeted ads.

    There are many types, but one way to categorise cookies is based on how long they stick around.

    Session cookies are only created temporarily – to track items in your shopping cart, for example. Once a browser session is inactive for a period of time or closed, these cookies are automatically deleted.

    Persistent cookies are stored for longer periods and can identify you – saving your login details so you can quickly access your email, for example. They have an expiry date ranging from days to years.

    What do the various cookie options mean?

    Pop-ups will usually inform you the website uses “essential cookies” necessary for it to function. You can’t opt out of these – and you wouldn’t want to. Otherwise, things like online shopping carts simply wouldn’t work.

    However, somewhere in the settings you will be given the choice to opt out of “non-essential cookies”. There are three types of these:

    • functional cookies, related to personalising your browsing experience (such as language or region selection)

    • analytics cookies, which provide statistical information about how visitors use the website, and

    • advertising cookies, which track information to build a profile of you and help show targeted advertisements.

    Advertising cookies are usually from third parties, which can then use them to track your browsing activities. A third party means the cookie can be accessed and shared across platforms and domains that are not the website you visited.

    Google Ads, for example, can track your online behaviour not only across multiple websites, but also multiple devices. This is because you may use Google services such as Google Search or YouTube logged in with your Google account on these devices.

    An example of cookie preferences offered by a website.
    The Conversation

    Should I accept or reject cookies?

    Ultimately, the choice is up to you.

    When you choose “accept all,” you consent to the website using and storing all types of cookies and trackers.

    This provides a richer experience: all features of the website will be enabled, including ones awaiting your consent. For example, any ad slots on the website may be populated with personalised ads based on a profile the third-party cookies have been building of you.

    By contrast, choosing “reject all” or ignoring the banner will decline all cookies except those essential for website functionality. You won’t lose access to basic features, but personalised features and third-party content will be missing.

    The choice is recorded in a consent cookie, and you may be reminded in six to 12 months.

    Also, you can change your mind at any time, and update your preferences in “cookie settings”, usually located at the footer of the website. Some sites may refer to it as the cookie policy or embed these options in their privacy policy.

    How cookies relate to your privacy

    The reason cookie consent pop-ups are seemingly everywhere is thanks to a European Union privacy law that came into effect in 2018. Known as GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), it provides strict regulations for how people’s personal data is handled online.

    These guidelines say that when cookies are used to identify users, they qualify as personal data and are therefore subject to the regulations. In practice, this means:

    • users must consent to cookies except the essential ones
    • users must be provided clear info about what data the cookie tracks
    • the consent must be stored and documented
    • users should still be able to use the service even if they don’t want to consent to certain cookies, and
    • users should be able to withdraw their consent easily.

    Since a lot of website traffic is international, many sites even outside the EU choose to follow GDPR guidelines to avoid running afoul of this privacy law.

    Better privacy controls

    Cookie pop-ups are tiresome, leading to “consent fatigue” – you just accept everything without considering the implications.

    This defeats the purpose of informed consent.

    There is another way to address your online privacy more robustly – Global Privacy Control (GPC). It’s a tech specification developed by a broad alliance of stakeholders (from web developers to civil rights organisations) that allows the browser to signal privacy preferences to websites, rather than requiring explicit choices on every site.

    GPC is not universally available, and it’s not a legal requirement – a number of browsers and plugins support it, but broader adoption may still take time.

    Meanwhile, if you’re worried you may have accidentally consented to cookies you don’t want, you can find an option in your browser settings to delete cookies and get back to a clean slate (be warned, this will log you out of everywhere). If you want to learn even more, the non-profit Electronic Frontier Foundation has a project called Cover Your Tracks.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-it-mean-to-accept-or-reject-all-cookies-and-which-should-i-choose-256219

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What causes ADHD? What we know, don’t know and suspect

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Poulton, Senior Lecturer, Brain Mind Centre Nepean, University of Sydney

    Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock

    Neurodevelopmental disorders are a diverse group of conditions that affect the brain from early development. They include attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism and learning disabilities, such as dyslexia.

    These conditions usually become more evident over time. This is because delays in the skills a child is expected to have developed at each age become more apparent.

    ADHD is the most common neurodevelopmental disorder. It affects around 8-10% of children and 2-5% of adults.

    ADHD affects a person’s efficiency at completing tasks (for example, because they get distracted) and their behaviour (such as losing things or struggling to pay attention).

    ADHD can affect all aspects of functioning including problems learning and maintaining friendships. If undiagnosed, the challenges are likely to persist and may lead to anxiety, depression and low self-esteem.

    How is it diagnosed?

    There is no specific genetic or brain abnormality that causes ADHD and no single reliable test to diagnose it.

    A formal diagnosis depends on whether a child shows at least six of the diagnostic criteria for inattention (at least five for adults) and/or at least six of the criteria for hyperactivity-impulsivity (at least five for adults). These have to persist for at least six months.

    The diagnostic criteria include:

    • difficulty concentrating (for example, trouble listening, poor attention to detail, not getting tasks finished)

    • hyperactivity (including fidgeting, feeling restless and running around, constantly chatting)

    • impulsivity (for example, interrupting conversations and games, difficulty waiting their turn).

    Not everyone with ADHD is hyperactive. For people with inattentive-type ADHD, their main difficulty is inattention, for example, concentrating consistently on everyday tasks that are not particularly interesting.

    If someone meets the criteria for hyperactivity-impulsivity and for inattention, they have combined-type ADHD.

    How reliable is diagnosis?

    One problem with these criteria is they’re not specific to ADHD. For example, difficulties concentrating can also be a symptom of depression.

    This is why it’s not enough to simply tick a symptom checklist. The formal diagnostic criteria emphasise these symptoms must interfere with daily functioning.

    The key question is: are ADHD symptoms causing day-to-day problems or holding this person back?

    What this means will vary from person to person, depending on what their everyday activities involve.

    For example, someone may struggle to concentrate at school but excel later on in a creative career such as photography, or in a high-intensity job with hard deadlines, such as journalism.

    It also means a person may only meet the full diagnostic criteria at certain stages of their life. Subthreshold ADHD – when someone meets some criteria but not enough for a diagnosis – can still cause significant difficulties.

    Gender differences

    Boys aged between four and 11 are up to four times more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD than girls.

    This may partly be because the diagnostic criteria are especially good at identifying hyperactive young boys. But they are not as effective for girls, particularly those who are not hyperactive or disruptive, or who try to hide their difficulties concentrating.

    Girls and women are likely to be diagnosed later and show more “internalising symptoms”, such as depression. However the rate of underdiagnosis in girls has been improving over the last four decades.

    The gender disparity also evens out with age. The female proportion of young adults diagnosed with ADHD is closer to half (38%).

    Adults may first notice symptoms of ADHD when managing significant life changes.
    Maria Svetlychnaja/Shutterstock

    What about genetics?

    There is also a strong genetic component. Heritability for ADHD is around 70–80%. This describes how much of the person-to-person differences in ADHD are due to genetics, rather than environmental influences.

    The more closely someone is related to a person with ADHD – in other words, the more genes they have in common – the more likely they are to have ADHD.

    However the genetics are complex. It’s not as simple as finding a gene or selection of genes “responsible” for ADHD.

    For example, early research linked ADHD to six genes that target neurotransmission (how the brain sends chemical signals). But the effect of each gene was small.

    ADHD is now understood to be a polygenic disorder, with thousands of common genetic variants involved.

    Each of these genes is capable of making a discrete but minuscule contribution to the overall expression of ADHD. Because these genes are common, the traits of ADHD are distributed throughout the population, with no clearly defined cut-off between those who do and do not have the condition.

    Within a family, the interaction between shared genetics and a shared environment (their household) make it difficult to study these separately.

    Does environment play a role?

    A supportive family can help a child with ADHD cope better with everyday tasks, as parents often adapt their parenting style to their child’s behaviour. This may mask the ADHD and delay diagnosis.

    But if one or both parents also has ADHD, this may affect their parenting style. It can be difficult to determine how much of that child’s behaviour is due to their inherited ADHD, and how much to the family environment and parenting.

    Studies have also shown children who are relatively young for their year when they start school have higher rates of treatment for ADHD. This points to their environment playing a role in when their ADHD is diagnosed, but not necessarily its cause.

    For more information about ADHD, as well as information about support groups, visit the ADHD foundation or ADHD Australia websites.

    Alison Poulton is a member of the Australasian ADHD Professionals Association and ADHD Australia. She has received personal fees and non-financial support from Shire/Takeda; and book royalties from Disruptive Publishing (ADHD Made Simple).

    – ref. What causes ADHD? What we know, don’t know and suspect – https://theconversation.com/what-causes-adhd-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-241119

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ahmed Ibrahim, Senior Lecturer, Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University

    Shutterstock/The Conversation

    It’s nearly impossible to use the internet without being asked about cookies. A typical pop-up will offer to either “accept all” or “reject all”. Sometimes, there may be a third option, or a link to further tweak your preferences.

    These pop-ups and banners are distracting, and your first reaction is likely to get them out of the way as soon as possible – perhaps by hitting that “accept all” button.

    But what are cookies, exactly? Why are we constantly asked about them, and what happens when we accept or reject them? As you will see, each choice comes with implications for your online privacy.

    What are cookies?

    Cookies are small files that web pages save to your device. They contain info meant to enhance the user experience, especially for frequently visited websites.

    This can include remembering your login information and preferred news categories or text size. Or they can help shopping sites suggest items based on your browsing history. Advertisers can track your browsing behaviour through cookies to show targeted ads.

    There are many types, but one way to categorise cookies is based on how long they stick around.

    Session cookies are only created temporarily – to track items in your shopping cart, for example. Once a browser session is inactive for a period of time or closed, these cookies are automatically deleted.

    Persistent cookies are stored for longer periods and can identify you – saving your login details so you can quickly access your email, for example. They have an expiry date ranging from days to years.

    What do the various cookie options mean?

    Pop-ups will usually inform you the website uses “essential cookies” necessary for it to function. You can’t opt out of these – and you wouldn’t want to. Otherwise, things like online shopping carts simply wouldn’t work.

    However, somewhere in the settings you will be given the choice to opt out of “non-essential cookies”. There are three types of these:

    • functional cookies, related to personalising your browsing experience (such as language or region selection)

    • analytics cookies, which provide statistical information about how visitors use the website, and

    • advertising cookies, which track information to build a profile of you and help show targeted advertisements.

    Advertising cookies are usually from third parties, which can then use them to track your browsing activities. A third party means the cookie can be accessed and shared across platforms and domains that are not the website you visited.

    Google Ads, for example, can track your online behaviour not only across multiple websites, but also multiple devices. This is because you may use Google services such as Google Search or YouTube logged in with your Google account on these devices.

    An example of cookie preferences offered by a website.
    The Conversation

    Should I accept or reject cookies?

    Ultimately, the choice is up to you.

    When you choose “accept all,” you consent to the website using and storing all types of cookies and trackers.

    This provides a richer experience: all features of the website will be enabled, including ones awaiting your consent. For example, any ad slots on the website may be populated with personalised ads based on a profile the third-party cookies have been building of you.

    By contrast, choosing “reject all” or ignoring the banner will decline all cookies except those essential for website functionality. You won’t lose access to basic features, but personalised features and third-party content will be missing.

    The choice is recorded in a consent cookie, and you may be reminded in six to 12 months.

    Also, you can change your mind at any time, and update your preferences in “cookie settings”, usually located at the footer of the website. Some sites may refer to it as the cookie policy or embed these options in their privacy policy.

    How cookies relate to your privacy

    The reason cookie consent pop-ups are seemingly everywhere is thanks to a European Union privacy law that came into effect in 2018. Known as GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), it provides strict regulations for how people’s personal data is handled online.

    These guidelines say that when cookies are used to identify users, they qualify as personal data and are therefore subject to the regulations. In practice, this means:

    • users must consent to cookies except the essential ones
    • users must be provided clear info about what data the cookie tracks
    • the consent must be stored and documented
    • users should still be able to use the service even if they don’t want to consent to certain cookies, and
    • users should be able to withdraw their consent easily.

    Since a lot of website traffic is international, many sites even outside the EU choose to follow GDPR guidelines to avoid running afoul of this privacy law.

    Better privacy controls

    Cookie pop-ups are tiresome, leading to “consent fatigue” – you just accept everything without considering the implications.

    This defeats the purpose of informed consent.

    There is another way to address your online privacy more robustly – Global Privacy Control (GPC). It’s a tech specification developed by a broad alliance of stakeholders (from web developers to civil rights organisations) that allows the browser to signal privacy preferences to websites, rather than requiring explicit choices on every site.

    GPC is not universally available, and it’s not a legal requirement – a number of browsers and plugins support it, but broader adoption may still take time.

    Meanwhile, if you’re worried you may have accidentally consented to cookies you don’t want, you can find an option in your browser settings to delete cookies and get back to a clean slate (be warned, this will log you out of everywhere). If you want to learn even more, the non-profit Electronic Frontier Foundation has a project called Cover Your Tracks.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-it-mean-to-accept-or-reject-all-cookies-and-which-should-i-choose-256219

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What causes ADHD? What we know, don’t know and suspect

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Alison Poulton, Senior Lecturer, Brain Mind Centre Nepean, University of Sydney

    Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock

    Neurodevelopmental disorders are a diverse group of conditions that affect the brain from early development. They include attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism and learning disabilities, such as dyslexia.

    These conditions usually become more evident over time. This is because delays in the skills a child is expected to have developed at each age become more apparent.

    ADHD is the most common neurodevelopmental disorder. It affects around 8-10% of children and 2-5% of adults.

    ADHD affects a person’s efficiency at completing tasks (for example, because they get distracted) and their behaviour (such as losing things or struggling to pay attention).

    ADHD can affect all aspects of functioning including problems learning and maintaining friendships. If undiagnosed, the challenges are likely to persist and may lead to anxiety, depression and low self-esteem.

    How is it diagnosed?

    There is no specific genetic or brain abnormality that causes ADHD and no single reliable test to diagnose it.

    A formal diagnosis depends on whether a child shows at least six of the diagnostic criteria for inattention (at least five for adults) and/or at least six of the criteria for hyperactivity-impulsivity (at least five for adults). These have to persist for at least six months.

    The diagnostic criteria include:

    • difficulty concentrating (for example, trouble listening, poor attention to detail, not getting tasks finished)

    • hyperactivity (including fidgeting, feeling restless and running around, constantly chatting)

    • impulsivity (for example, interrupting conversations and games, difficulty waiting their turn).

    Not everyone with ADHD is hyperactive. For people with inattentive-type ADHD, their main difficulty is inattention, for example, concentrating consistently on everyday tasks that are not particularly interesting.

    If someone meets the criteria for hyperactivity-impulsivity and for inattention, they have combined-type ADHD.

    How reliable is diagnosis?

    One problem with these criteria is they’re not specific to ADHD. For example, difficulties concentrating can also be a symptom of depression.

    This is why it’s not enough to simply tick a symptom checklist. The formal diagnostic criteria emphasise these symptoms must interfere with daily functioning.

    The key question is: are ADHD symptoms causing day-to-day problems or holding this person back?

    What this means will vary from person to person, depending on what their everyday activities involve.

    For example, someone may struggle to concentrate at school but excel later on in a creative career such as photography, or in a high-intensity job with hard deadlines, such as journalism.

    It also means a person may only meet the full diagnostic criteria at certain stages of their life. Subthreshold ADHD – when someone meets some criteria but not enough for a diagnosis – can still cause significant difficulties.

    Gender differences

    Boys aged between four and 11 are up to four times more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD than girls.

    This may partly be because the diagnostic criteria are especially good at identifying hyperactive young boys. But they are not as effective for girls, particularly those who are not hyperactive or disruptive, or who try to hide their difficulties concentrating.

    Girls and women are likely to be diagnosed later and show more “internalising symptoms”, such as depression. However the rate of underdiagnosis in girls has been improving over the last four decades.

    The gender disparity also evens out with age. The female proportion of young adults diagnosed with ADHD is closer to half (38%).

    Adults may first notice symptoms of ADHD when managing significant life changes.
    Maria Svetlychnaja/Shutterstock

    What about genetics?

    There is also a strong genetic component. Heritability for ADHD is around 70–80%. This describes how much of the person-to-person differences in ADHD are due to genetics, rather than environmental influences.

    The more closely someone is related to a person with ADHD – in other words, the more genes they have in common – the more likely they are to have ADHD.

    However the genetics are complex. It’s not as simple as finding a gene or selection of genes “responsible” for ADHD.

    For example, early research linked ADHD to six genes that target neurotransmission (how the brain sends chemical signals). But the effect of each gene was small.

    ADHD is now understood to be a polygenic disorder, with thousands of common genetic variants involved.

    Each of these genes is capable of making a discrete but minuscule contribution to the overall expression of ADHD. Because these genes are common, the traits of ADHD are distributed throughout the population, with no clearly defined cut-off between those who do and do not have the condition.

    Within a family, the interaction between shared genetics and a shared environment (their household) make it difficult to study these separately.

    Does environment play a role?

    A supportive family can help a child with ADHD cope better with everyday tasks, as parents often adapt their parenting style to their child’s behaviour. This may mask the ADHD and delay diagnosis.

    But if one or both parents also has ADHD, this may affect their parenting style. It can be difficult to determine how much of that child’s behaviour is due to their inherited ADHD, and how much to the family environment and parenting.

    Studies have also shown children who are relatively young for their year when they start school have higher rates of treatment for ADHD. This points to their environment playing a role in when their ADHD is diagnosed, but not necessarily its cause.

    For more information about ADHD, as well as information about support groups, visit the ADHD foundation or ADHD Australia websites.

    Alison Poulton is a member of the Australasian ADHD Professionals Association and ADHD Australia. She has received personal fees and non-financial support from Shire/Takeda; and book royalties from Disruptive Publishing (ADHD Made Simple).

    – ref. What causes ADHD? What we know, don’t know and suspect – https://theconversation.com/what-causes-adhd-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-241119

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Something borrowed, something blue? Why the reign of the traditional wedding dress may be over

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jye Marshall, Lecturer, Fashion Design, School of Design and Architecture, Swinburne University of Technology

    Wedding Rebellion Workshop, London Ellie Cooper/unsplash

    The family and friends are all gathered, wedding bells are ringing, and the bride walks down the aisle in her beautiful bubblegum pink wedding dress.

    Twenty years ago, this would have raised some eyebrows. But not so much now, as a growing number of women opt to buck the traditional bridal gown for more unique and colourful finery.

    The origins of the white wedding dress

    The white wedding gown tradition wasn’t cemented in the West until the 19th century. Before then, brides across Europe wore all manner of hues on their wedding day, including reds, blues, yellows, and even black (often in cases where the bride was mourning a close family member).

    Diggers wedding in Melbourne, 1869.
    ST Gill 1852/State Library of Victoria, Melbourne, CC BY-NC

    During the Victorian era (1837–1901), fashion trends were heavily influenced by the wealthy, and especially by the royal families. So it was Queen Victoria’s 1840 wedding that truly kicked off the white wedding gown trend.

    In a bridal context, the colour white often came to be associated with “purity” – symbolism that can be traced back to ancient Rome, where white was worn by brides and by “vestal virgins” – the priestesses who served in the cult of Vesta, the goddess of the hearth.

    In the decades following Queen Victoria’s wedding, we continued to see British royal brides adorned in shades of white, and particularly ivory, cementing what a traditional wedding dress should look like.

    Breaking the mould

    That said, this tradition might now be on its way out, reflecting broader shifts in societal attitudes towards marriage.

    Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a steady long-term decline in the percentage of people getting married – as well as an increase in the median marriage age for both men and women.

    Australia has also become increasingly multicultural. And with more multicultural marriages comes a unique blend of marriage traditions and colour palettes. For instance, in many Asian cultures, including Chinese and Vietnamese, it is customary to wear red due to its positive associations with luck, joy and happiness.

    Religious adherence also has a role to play in the overall aesthetic of modern weddings. A growing number of young Australians are identifying as non-religious, which means they’re less likely to partake in a church wedding with a puffy white tulle dress.

    Without religious protocols to follow, young couples are expressing their own youthful values at their weddings – and this often includes a more laid-back approach to dressing.

    The legalisation of same-sex marriage in 2017 has also prompted bridal stores to cater to a wider market by offering a greater variety of non-traditional colours and silhouettes.

    Meanwhile, social media and the rise of celebrity culture adds pressure to think outside the box.

    For decades, celebrities have been innovators delivering shock value on their special day. Back in 1954, Marilyn Monroe wore a dark brown suit to her second wedding with Joe DiMaggio. Some 15 years later, Audrey Hepburn got married in a pink Givenchy minidress.

    Today’s stars are following suit. In 2018, singer Mandy Moore donned a pink dress on her wedding day, while model Emily Ratijowsky chose a bright yellow Zara pantsuit.

    In Australia, designers have spent decades distancing themselves from the typical European influence to forge their own fashion identity. One such person, Akira Isogawa, helped develop the bridal landscape throughout the 1990s, by pushing the boundaries of the “traditional bride”.

    The Japanese-born designer brings his own flavour to bridal dresses by infusing them with Eastern elements such as different coloured silks, hand-embroidered motifs, unique beading and even woven fabric. He has also showcased his designs internationally, helping expand Australia’s fashion identity on a world stage.

    Impacts on the industry

    Despite the move away from traditional wedding gowns, bridal stores are expected to grow their revenue over the next few years. And the industry as a whole will likely continue to contribute to overconsumption by capitalising on the shift away from tradition.

    Many stores have changed their business model to cater for more women picking off-the-rack gowns due to financial pressures. According to one industry report, about 17% of brides in 2024 had a custom wedding dress made, compared to 75% purchasing a dress off-the rack, and 7% purchasing a second-hand dress.

    At the same time, a number of new fashion technologies are supporting the next generation of onshore manufacturing by allowing the creation of hyper-personalised dresses. In the future, it may be common for brides to co-design their off-the-rack wedding dress.

    Recycled and upcycled bridal dresses
    have been slow to gain popularity, despite growing pressure on the industry to be more sustainable.

    A broader cultural shift

    This may just be the tip of the iceberg of the non-traditional bridal movement. Australian weddings are starting to take their own shape, becoming less about formality and more about celebrating what couples value the most.

    While we won’t see every bride walking down the aisle in colours like fuchsia pink, we can expect to see more brides opt for softer pastels over shades of white.

    Ideally, the bridal industry would slow down in adopting new trends and instead focus on “localism” practices, wherein consumers are looped into the process of how their clothes are made. This would emphasise sustainability through local production and consumption, while also contributing to local fashion cultures.

    Jye Marshall is a member of The Australian Fashion Council and Ethical Clothing Australia Accreditation.

    – ref. Something borrowed, something blue? Why the reign of the traditional wedding dress may be over – https://theconversation.com/something-borrowed-something-blue-why-the-reign-of-the-traditional-wedding-dress-may-be-over-254806

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Wine is still Australia’s most popular alcoholic drink – but many producers face an uncertain future

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Chad, Honorary Fellow, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Business, University of Wollongong

    kwest/Shutterstock

    Australia has become world-famous for its wine, but the industry faces an uncertain future. Too many grapes grown amid falling consumer demand, an oversupply of budget wine, and an undersupply of premium wine are just some of the problems besetting the industry.

    There are still many small and medium-sized wineries across Australia. But the industry is dominated by a few large players, as well as “vertical integration” with ownership linkages between wineries and retailers.

    Just this month, a merger between global drinks giant Pernod Ricard’s Australian, New Zealand and Spanish wine brands and Accolade Wines (one of Australia’s largest winemakers) was completed, creating a new giant – Vinarchy – to be based in Adelaide with A$1.5 billion in annual revenue.

    This move will involve an estimated cull of up to 50 wine brands, which speaks to a broader story of growing concentration. Numerous Australian wine companies have come up for sale in recent years, and the industry is undergoing rationalisation.

    The current pressures will require an overall reduction in wine production, and a focus on premium over ordinary wines. Grape-growers and some smaller wineries are likely to be most affected.

    Still the top drop

    According to Wine Australia, the Australian wine industry currently has about 6,000 grape growers and 2,156 wineries. It employs 163,790 people (full- and part-time) and contributes $45 billion to the Australian economy each year.

    This large size shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Wine is the most popular alcoholic drink in Australia. But troubles have been brewing for the industry for years.

    Domestic wine consumption has been in steady decline, down 9% since 2016–17.

    This trend isn’t confined to Australia; it is global. The decline reflects cost-of-living pressures, growing health concerns about alcohol, and Gen Z questioning traditional drinking norms.

    Shifting tastes

    However, the picture is nuanced. Wine isn’t a staple product; it is a discretionary purchase. Prices in Australia can range from less than $5 to well over $1,000 per bottle, and palates vary significantly among consumers.

    Price is generally regarded as an indicator of quality. Wine selling in Australia in the “ordinary” price range of less than $15 per bottle is declining, but wine selling in the “premium” ($15 per bottle and above) price range is increasing.

    In the face of decreased global wine consumption, Australia’s shrinking domestic market has also been faced with a steady decline in wine exports. This is problematic for producers looking to exports to offset declines in domestic sales.

    A warm country

    These woes are impacting the wine industry in different ways at different points along the supply chain. Let’s start with grape-growing.

    The current challenge is for growers of “ordinary-quality” grapes in the shrinking marketplace. The Riverina and Riverland areas are the main grape-producing areas of Australia and achieve a low price per tonne.

    There is still high demand for “premium-quality” grapes but these are generally grown in select regions of Australia, typically with a cooler climate.

    Unsurprisingly, grapes from warm inland regions of Australia account for 72% of wine grape production, at an average price of $345 per tonne, whereas grapes from cool temperate regions achieve an average price of $1,531 per tonne.

    The future impacts of climate change need to be assessed, and are already playing into growers’ decisions. Cooler regions are becoming more highly sought after for grape-growing.

    Coupled with increased demand for premium grapes, this will make warm inland regions increasingly problematic. Unlike seasonally planted crops such as vegetables and grain, new grape vines require three years after planting before bearing decent levels of fruit. Farmers must determine the most appropriate long-term use of their land.

    Concerns about climate change are driving interest in cool regions – such as Tasmania’s Tamar Valley.
    Marcin Madry/Shutterstock

    The challenge of standing out

    Many of Australia’s 2,156 wineries are small-scale (typically privately owned). Other wineries are much larger, with extensive resources. Most consumers are largely unaware of most of these wineries – how many wine brands can you list?

    Such diversity already presents a challenge for various wineries trying to market themselves. Adding to this, a large number of Australian wine brands are owned by just a few large industry players, some with links to retailers via vertical integration.

    Retailers such as Endeavour Group (formerly part of Woolworths) and Coles own hundreds of wine brands. Some of these brands are marketed to look like independent wineries. Some commentators have even suggested a wine duopoly exists at the retail level.

    Standing out in a crowded market is a big challenge for small producers.
    Sirbouman/Shutterstock

    How can wineries survive?

    With the trend towards less consumption overall, and towards premium-quality wines instead of ordinary-quality wines, some wineries may need to shift their focus.

    On the challenges facing the industry, acclaimed Victorian winemaker Rick Kinzbrunner told me:

    We need a better balance of supply and demand and especially more emphasis on top quality wines at reasonable prices.

    Why this matters to you

    If you’re a wine drinker, current wine industry issues may seem irrelevant. But the ongoing oversupply of ordinary-quality wine for the near future offers plenty of price discounts.

    For consumers of premium wines, given current high demand, be wary: does what you’re getting quality-wise match the price? Some wines marketed at high prices don’t have the quality to match.

    Consumers may wish to increase direct contact with wineries (via cellar doors, websites and mailing lists) and independent retailers to expand their options.

    Winners and losers will emerge as inevitable industry change occurs.

    Paul Chad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Wine is still Australia’s most popular alcoholic drink – but many producers face an uncertain future – https://theconversation.com/wine-is-still-australias-most-popular-alcoholic-drink-but-many-producers-face-an-uncertain-future-256320

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why is southern Australia in drought – and when will it end?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chiara Holgate, Senior Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century, Australian National University

    Artic_photo/Shutterstock

    Swathes of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia are in the grip of drought as they experience some of the lowest rainfall totals on record.

    Farmers are spending eye-watering amounts of money buying feed, or selling stock to stay afloat.

    Some towns are already on water restrictions. Those not connected to the mains water system are in a perilous situation. In the Adelaide Hills, water is being trucked in to fill empty rainwater tanks and dams.

    The story playing out across southern Australia could be a glimpse of what’s to come. Our recent research suggests southern Australia may experience longer and more intense droughts in the future, as the climate changes.

    Parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia are experiencing serious rainfall deficiencies.
    Australian Bureau of Meteorology

    How bad is this drought?

    Parts of southern Australia have been experiencing drier than normal conditions for well over a year.

    Conditions on the ground are worsening as the drought continues.

    In Adelaide, the desalination plant has ramped up to maintain water supply. Similarly, Victoria’s desal plant has fired up for the first time since 2022 as dam levels fall.

    Farmers are facing some of the driest conditions in decades, and financial pressures are mounting.

    Nature, too, is struggling. Waterways, wetlands and deep pools have dried up, leading to fears for endangered fish, insects and many other species.

    Where has the rain gone?

    In a drought-prone country such as Australia, there’s an age-old question: why do the rains sometimes disappear?

    Our recent research shows Australian scientists are getting closer to answering this question.

    We now know Australian droughts develop when weather systems that lift and carry moisture from the ocean – to fall as heavy rain on land – disappear. When these weather systems return, the droughts break.

    These kinds of weather systems have been notably absent from southern Australia in recent months. Instead, slow-moving high-pressure systems, which typically bring warm and dry conditions, have been the standout feature across southern Australia.

    For Australia, the driest inhabited continent, heavy rains are what keep drought at bay. Last spring and summer, drought conditions were building in parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales. But then Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought heavy rains, dumping up to four times as much rain as these areas usually get in February and March.

    Similarly, heavy rains at the end of last year helped parts of northern and central WA avoid drought conditions.

    Unfortunately, western Victoria and southern SA have had no such luck.

    Drought is more likely to break if weather systems and climate drivers are favorable, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in its negative phase, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in its wet phase, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in its La Niña phase, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in its negative phase and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) active. Background climate change can affect all of these drivers.
    Holgate et al 2025 Communications Earth & Environment, CC BY-NC-ND

    How long will the drought last?

    If farmers, water authorities and policymakers knew how much longer this drought would last, they could make clear plans. Keep or sell livestock? Impose water restrictions or wait?

    Unfortunately, drought timing is very hard to predict. As our research shows, the climate processes that bring weather systems laden with heavy rain are complex.

    But we do know heavy and persistent rain is needed to break the drought. And the current forecast shows there’s a decent chance of that as we head towards spring. Though forecasts can change, and those with skin in the game will have their eyes glued to next month’s update to the Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook.

    It also helps that we’re heading into what’s usually the rainier time of year. This means the odds of receiving decent rain are higher at this time of year than if we were heading into summer.

    Climate and water long-range forecast, issued 15 May 2025 (Bureau of Meteorology)

    Dry and drier

    Over the past few decades, southern Australia has become drier. Drying has been most pronounced during the cooler months, between April and October. Some parts of southern Australia have also become more drought-prone, with the number of months spent in drought increasing over this time.

    Maps of the current dry conditions across southern Australia closely follow the regions projected to experience longer and more frequent drought conditions in future.

    It’s too early to draw a clear line between climate change and this particular drought. But the weight of evidence shows southern droughts are likely to strike more often in the future. The Tinderbox Drought from 2017–19, for instance, was the first Australian drought to show a possible worsening from climate change.

    The good news? We now know more about how Australian droughts work. This means we can now be more confident in the direction of Australia’s water future than in past decades.

    We must urgently use this new knowledge to develop innovative solutions that will allow Australia to thrive in a climate of increasingly variable water availability. Solutions will involve setting sustainable limits on water use, introducing water recycling and improving efficiency, among other measures.

    Though solutions may look different in different parts of Australia, one thing rings true everywhere: we all need to make every drop count.

    Chiara Holgate receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century.

    Ailie Gallant receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    – ref. Why is southern Australia in drought – and when will it end? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-southern-australia-in-drought-and-when-will-it-end-256443

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More people are trying medicinal cannabis for chronic pain. But does it work?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Nielsen, Professor and Deputy Director, Monash Addiction Research Centre, Monash University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    More Australians than ever are being prescribed medicinal cannabis.

    Medicinal cannabis refers to legally prescribed cannabis products. These are either the plant itself, or naturally occurring ingredients extracted from the plant. These ingredients, such as THC (tetrahydrocannabinol) and CBD (cannabidiol), are called cannabinoids. Some cannabinoids are also made in labs to act like the ones in the plant.

    Medicinal cannabis comes in different forms, such as oils, capsules, dried flower (used in a vaporiser), sprays and edible forms such as gummies.

    Since regulatory changes in 2016 made medicinal cannabis more accessible, Australia’s regulator has issued more than 700,000 approvals. (But approvals for medicinal cannabis don’t reflect the actual number of patients treated. One patient may have multiple approvals, and not all approved products are necessarily prescribed or supplied.)

    Around half of the approvals have been for chronic pain that isn’t caused by cancer.

    In Australia, chronic pain affects around one in five Australians aged 45 and over, with an enormous impact on people’s lives.

    So what does the current evidence tell us about the effectiveness of medicinal cannabis for chronic pain?

    What the evidence shows

    A 2021 review of 32 randomised controlled trials involving nearly 5,200 people with chronic pain, examined the effects of medicinal cannabis or cannabinoids. The study found a small improvements in pain and physical functioning compared with a placebo.

    A previous review found that to achieve a 30% reduction in pain for one person, 24 people would need to be treated with medicinal cannabis.

    The 2021 review also found small improvements in sleep, and no consistent benefits for other quality of life measures, consistent with previous reviews.

    This doesn’t mean medicinal cannabis doesn’t help anyone. But it suggests that, on average, the benefits are limited to a smaller number of people.

    Many pain specialists have questioned if the evidence for medicinal cannabis is sufficient to support its use for pain.

    The Faculty of Pain Medicine, the professional body dedicated to the training and education of specialist pain physicians, recommends medical cannabis should be limited to clinical trials.



    Read more:
    Medicinal cannabis to manage chronic pain? We don’t have evidence it works

    What does the regulator say?

    Guidance from Australia’s regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), on medicinal cannabis for chronic non-cancer pain reflects these uncertainties.

    The TGA states there is limited evidence medicinal cannabis provides clinically significant pain relief for many pain conditions. Therefore, the potential benefits versus harms should be considered patient-by-patient.

    The TGA says medicinal cannabis should only be trialled when other standard therapies have been tried and did not provide enough pain relief.

    In terms of which type of medical cannabis product to use, due to concerns about the safety of inhaled cannabis, the TGA considers pharmaceutical-grade products (such as nabiximols or extracts containing THC and/or CBD) to be safer.

    Chronic pain affects around one in five Australians.
    Dusan Pektovic/Shutterstock

    What about people who say it helps?

    This evidence may feel at odds with the experiences of people who report relief from medicinal cannabis.

    In clinical practice, it’s common for individuals to respond differently based on their health conditions, beliefs and many other factors. What works well for one person may not work for another.

    Research helps us understand what outcomes are typical or expected for most people, but there is variation. Some people may find medicinal cannabis improves their pain, sleep or general well-being – especially if other treatments haven’t helped.

    What are the side effects and risks?

    Like any medicine, medicinal cannabis has potential side effects. These are usually mild to moderate, including drowsiness or sedation, dizziness, impaired concentration, a dry mouth, nausea and cognitive slowing.

    These side effects are often greater with higher-potency THC products. These are becoming more common on the Australian market. High-potency THC products represent more than half of approvals in 2025.

    In research studies, generally more people experience side effects than report benefits from medical cannabis.

    After using cannabis for a long time, some people need to take higher doses to get the same effect.
    Nuva Frames/Shutterstock

    Medical cannabis can also interact with other medications, especially those that cause drowsiness (such as opioids), medicines for mental illness, anti-epileptics, blood thinners and immunosuppressants.

    Even cannabidiol (CBD), which isn’t considered intoxicating like THC, has been linked to serious drug interactions.

    These risks are greater when cannabis is prescribed by a doctor who doesn’t regularly manage the patient’s chronic pain or isn’t in contact with their other health-care providers. Since medicinal cannabis is often prescribed through separate telehealth clinics, this fragmented care may increase the risk of harmful interactions.

    Another concern is developing cannabis use disorder (commonly understood as “addiction”). A 2024 study found one in four people using medical cannabis develop a cannabis use disorder. Withdrawal symptoms – such as irritability, sleep problems, or cravings – can occur with frequent and heavy use.

    For some people, tolerance can also develop with long-term use, meaning you need to take higher doses to get the same effect. This can increase the risk of developing a cannabis use disorder.

    How does it compare to other treatments?

    Like many medicines for chronic pain, the effectiveness of medicinal cannabis is modest, and is not recommended as a sole treatment.

    There’s good evidence that, for conditions like back pain, interventions such as exercise, cognitive behavioural therapy and pain self-management education can help and may have fewer risks than many medicines.

    But there are challenges with how accessible and affordable these treatments are for many Australians, especially outside major cities.

    So where does this leave patients?

    The growing use of medicinal cannabis for chronic pain reflects both a high burden of pain in the community and gaps in access to effective care. While some patients report benefits, the current evidence suggests these are likely to be small for most people, and must be weighed against the risks.

    If you are considering medicinal cannabis, it’s important to talk to your usual health-care provider, ideally one familiar with your full medical history, to help you decide the best approaches to help manage your pain.

    Suzanne Nielsen receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, alongside government and philanthropic organisations to conduct independent research.. She is the president-elect for the Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and Other Drugs. She serves as a consultant for the World Health Organization. She has contributed to independent reviews of the evidence on medical cannabis for government organisations include Worksafe and the TGA.

    Myfanwy Graham receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, alongside government and university institutes. Myfanwy has served as a consultant for the UNODC, WHO and NASEM. She is an appointed member of the Therapeutic Goods Administration’s Medicinal Cannabis Expert Working Group. This article does not represent the views of the TGA or the Expert Working Group.

    – ref. More people are trying medicinal cannabis for chronic pain. But does it work? – https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-trying-medicinal-cannabis-for-chronic-pain-but-does-it-work-256471

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 1 in 5 Gazans face starvation. Can the law force Israel to act?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

    As Israel continues to pound Gaza with airstrikes, killing scores of people a day, the two-month ceasefire that brought a halt to the violence earlier this year feels like a distant memory.

    Israel’s overall military and political objective in Gaza hasn’t changed after 19 months of war: it is still seeking the absolute defeat of Hamas and return of the remaining Israeli hostages.

    But it is unclear how Hamas will ever be militarily defeated unless there is a complete and unconditional surrender and the laying down of all arms. This appears unlikely, despite the success of Israel’s so-called “decapitation strategy” targeting the Hamas leadership.

    And Hamas continues to hold an estimated that 57 Israeli hostages in Gaza, of which up to 24 are believed to still be alive. The group is insisting on guarantees that Israel will end the war before releasing any more hostages.

    An ongoing blockade for 18 years

    With negotiations at a stalemate, Israel has not only maintained its blockade of Gaza, but strengthened it.

    Israel first imposed a land, sea and air blockade of Gaza in 2007 after Hamas came to power. These restrictions have severely limited the movement of people and vehicles across the border, as well as the amount of food, medicine and other goods that have been permitted to go into and out of Gaza.

    These controls increased significantly after Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. They’ve been maintained at heightened levels ever since.

    The January ceasefire temporarily increased the flow of food, medical aid and other support into Gaza. However, this came to an end in early March when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut off aid again to pressure Hamas to extend the ceasefire and release more hostages. Hostilities resumed soon after.

    The United Nations’ humanitarian efforts in Gaza have now come to a “near-standstill”. On May 13, Tom Fletcher, the UN emergency relief coordinator, addressed the UN Security Council, stating:

    For more than 10 weeks, nothing has entered Gaza – no food, medicine, water or tents. […] Every single one of the 2.1 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip face the risk of famine. One in five faces starvation.

    Israel denies there are food shortages in Gaza. It says it won’t permit any trucks to enter the strip until a new system is in place to prevent Hamas from siphoning supplies.

    International law is clear

    Both the 1949 Geneva Conventions and customary international law make clear:

    The use of starvation of the civilian population as a method of warfare is prohibited.

    In addition, the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) makes starvation of civilians a war crime.

    Under international humanitarian law, Fletcher noted, Israel has the responsibility to ensure aid reaches people in territory it occupies. However, Israel’s method of distributing aid, he said, “makes aid conditional on political and military aims” and “makes starvation a bargaining chip”.

    What have the courts found?

    International courts have not ignored Israel’s obligations on this front.

    In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif (one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack), in addition to Netanyahu and former Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

    In relation Netanyahu and Gallant, the ICC’s pre-trial chamber found:

    there are reasonable grounds to believe that both individuals intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies.

    As Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute, there is no obligation on the government to act on the arrest warrants. Both men remain free to travel as long as they do not enter the territory of a Rome Statute party. (Even then, their arrest is not guaranteed.)

    The ICC warrants will remain in effect unless withdrawn by the court. The arrest in March of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte highlighted that while ICC investigations may take time, those accused of crimes can eventually be brought before the court to face justice.

    This is especially so if there is a change in political leadership in a country that allows an arrest to go ahead.

    Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is hearing another case in which South Africa alleges Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian population in Gaza.

    The case began with high-profile hearings last year when the court issued provisional measures, or orders, requiring Israel to refrain from engaging in any genocidal acts.

    The most recent of those orders, issued last May, called on Israel to immediately halt its offensive in Rafah (in southern Gaza) and maintain the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt to allow “unhindered provision at scale of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance”.

    These orders remain in effect. Yet, Rafah today is a “no-go zone” that Gazans have been ordered to evacuate. And Israel’s ongoing blockade of the strip and restrictions on aid and food entering the territory are clearly in defiance of the court.

    Late last month, the ICJ began hearings to form an opinion on Israel’s duties to allow aid to enter Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, criticised the ICJ’s hearings as “another attempt to politicise and abuse the legal process in order to persecute Israel”.

    The court’s advisory opinion on this issue is not expected for several months. A final decision on South Africa’s broader case may take years.

    So, what can be done?

    Reflecting on the situation in Gaza, Fletcher observed at the UN:

    This degradation of international law is corrosive and infectious. It is undermining decades of progress on rules to protect civilians from inhumanity and the violent and lawless among us who act with impunity. Humanity, the law and reason must prevail.

    Yet, while the Security Council continues to have the situation in Gaza under review, it has proven incapable of acting decisively because of US support for Israel.

    The Biden Administration was prepared to use its veto power to block binding Security Council resolutions forcing Israel to respond to the humanitarian crisis. The Trump Administration would no doubt do the same.

    However, as Duterte’s arrest shows, international law sometimes does result in action. The finding by another UN body last week that Russia was responsible for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014 is another case in point.

    As the Dutch foreign minister pointed out in that case, the finding sends a message that “states cannot violate international law with impunity”.

    Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council

    – ref. 1 in 5 Gazans face starvation. Can the law force Israel to act? – https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-gazans-face-starvation-can-the-law-force-israel-to-act-256695

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI is moving fast. Climate policy provides valuable lessons for how to keep it in check

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milica Stilinovic, PhD Candidate, School of Media and Communications; Managing Editor, Policy & Internet journal, University of Sydney

    cybermagician/Shutterstock

    Artificial intelligence (AI) might not have been created to enable new forms of sexual violence such as deepfake pornography. But that has been an unfortunate byproduct of the rapidly advancing technology.

    This is just one example of AI’s many unintended uses.

    AI’s intended uses are not without their own problems, including serious copyright concerns. But beyond this, there is much experimentation happening with the rapidly advancing technology. Models and code are shared, repurposed and remixed in public online spaces.

    These collaborative, loosely networked communities — what we call “underspheres” in our recently published paper in New Media & Society — are where users experiment with AI rather than simply consume it. These spaces are where generative AI is pushed into unpredictable and experimental directions. And they show why a new approach to regulating AI and mitigating its risks is urgently needed. Climate policy offers some useful lessons.

    A limited approach

    As AI advances, so do concerns about risk. Policymakers have responded quickly. For example, the European Union AI Act which came into force in 2024 classifies systems by risk: banning “unacceptable” ones, regulating “high-risk” uses, and requiring transparency for lower-risk tools.

    Other governments — including those of the United Kingdom, United States and China — are taking similar directions. However, their regulatory approaches differ in scope, stage of development, and enforcement.

    But these efforts share a limitation: they’re built around intended use, not the messy, creative and often unintended ways AI is actually being used — especially in fringe spaces.

    So, what risks can emerge from creative deviance in AI? And can risk-based frameworks handle technologies that are fluid, remixable and fast-moving?

    Sub communities within the larger Reddit platform often experiment with unintential uses of AI.
    Tada Images/Shutterstock

    Experimentation outside of regulation

    There are several online spaces where members of the undersphere gather. They include GitHub (a web-based platform for collaborative software development), Hugging Face (a platform that offers ready-to-use machine learning models, datasets, and tools for developers to easily build and launch AI apps) and subreddits (individual communities or forums within the larger Reddit platform).

    These environments encourage creative experimentation with generative AI outside regulated frameworks. This experimentation can include instructing models to avoid intended behaviours – or do the opposite. It can also include creating mashups or more powerful variations of generative AI by remixing software code that is made publicly available for anyone to view, use, modify and distribute.

    The potential harms of this experimentation are highlighted by the proliferation of deepfake pornography. So too are the limits of the current approach to regulation rapidly advancing technology such as AI.

    Deepfake technology wasn’t originally developed to create non-consensual pornographic videos and images. But this is ultimately what happened within subreddit communities, beginning in 2017. Deepfake pornography then quickly spread from this undersphere into the mainstream; a recent analysis of more than 95,000 deepfake videos online found 98% of them were deep fake pornography videos.

    It was not until 2019 – years after deepfake pornography first emerged – that attempts to regulate it began to emerge globally. But these attempts were too rigid to capture the new ways deepfake technology was being used by then to cause harm. What’s more, the regulatory efforts were sporadic and inconsistent between states. This impeded efforts to protect people – and democracies – from the impacts of deepfakes globally.

    This is why we need regulation that can march in step with emerging technologies and act quickly when unintended use prevails.

    Embracing uncertainty, complexity and change

    A way to look at AI governance is through the prism of climate change. Climate change is also the result of many interconnected systems interacting in ways we can’t fully control — and its impacts can only be understood with a degree of uncertainty.

    Over the past three decades, climate governance frameworks have evolved to confront this challenge: to manage complex, emerging, and often unpredictable risks. And although this framework has yet to demonstrate its ability to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it has succeeded in sustaining global attention over the years on emerging climate risks and their complex impacts.

    At the same time it has provided a forum where responsibilities and potential solutions can be publicly debated.

    A similar governance framework should also be adopted to manage the spread of AI. This framework should consider the interconnected risks caused by generative AI tools linking with social media platforms. It should also consider cascading risks, as content and code are reused and adapted. And it should consider systemic risks, such as declining public trust or polarised debate.

    Importantly, this framework must also involve diverse voices. Like climate change, generative AI won’t affect just one part of society — it will ripple through many. And the challenge is how to adapt with it.

    Applied to AI, climate change governance approaches could help promote preemptive action in the wake of unforeseen use (such as in the case of deepfake porn) before the issue becomes widespread.

    Over the past three decades, climate governance frameworks have evolved to manage complex, emerging, and often unpredictable risks.
    Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock

    Avoiding the pitfalls of climate governance

    While climate governance offers a useful model for adaptive, flexible regulation, it also brings important warnings that must be avoided.

    Climate politics has been mired by loopholes, competing interests and sluggish policymaking. From Australia’s shortcomings in implementing its renewable strategy, to policy reversals in Scotland and political gridlock in the United States, climate policy implementation has often been the proverbial wrench in the gears of environmental law.

    But, when it comes to AI governance, this all-too-familiar climate stalemate brings with it important lessons for the realm of AI governance.

    First, we need to find ways to align public oversight with self-regulation and transparency on the part of AI developers and suppliers.

    Second, we need to think about generative AI risks at a global scale. International cooperation and coordination are essential.

    Finally, we need to accept that AI development and experimentation will persist, and craft regulations that respond to this in order to keep our societies safe.

    Francesco Bailo has received funding from Meta and from Australia’s Department of Defence.

    Jonathon Hutchinson and Milica Stilinovic do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI is moving fast. Climate policy provides valuable lessons for how to keep it in check – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-moving-fast-climate-policy-provides-valuable-lessons-for-how-to-keep-it-in-check-255624

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ Budget 2025: economic forecasting is notoriously difficult, but global uncertainty is making it harder

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ryan, Lecturer in Economics, University of Waikato

    Javier Ghersi/Getty Images

    This year’s budget will be one of the tightest in a decade, with the New Zealand government halving its operating allowance – the new money it has available to spend – from NZ$2.4 billion to $1.3 billion.

    The cut reflects weaker than expected growth owing to global economic turmoil. It also highlights just how difficult it is to predict what is going to happen when it comes to the economy.

    Economies are dynamic systems where relationships between variables shift. Even the current state of the economy is uncertain due to data revisions and lags in reporting.

    Despite this uncertainty, governments have to assume paths for revenue and expenditure to make meaningful plans.

    Based on the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023), the National Party announced plans to achieve an operating surplus in the year ending June 2027 during the 2023 election campaign.

    As forecasts changed, so did those plans. By the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU 2024), released in December 2024, the goal of an operating surplus had been pushed back to 2029.

    The table below shows the change in the 2027 forecasts for key economic indicators between the two fiscal updates.

    Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific period. It is a key determinant of tax revenue. Real GDP measures the volume of output of the New Zealand economy.

    Ultimately, the 2027 nominal GDP forecast at the half-year update was weaker than expected. This weakness was driven by lower than expected output, not by changes in prices.

    The 2027 forecast tax revenue fell even more sharply than the nominal GDP forecast. This was in part due to the government’s personal income tax cuts which have been costed at $3.7 billion a year.

    Finance Minister Nicola Willis has warned that the 2025 budget will be very tight, reflecting uncertainty in the global economy.
    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    More changes afoot

    We’re likely to see further downward revisions in economic growth. The Treasury has already lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, in part due to the expected impact of global tariffs.

    While the direct effects of the tariffs on New Zealand may be limited, the indirect effects – particularly through increased global economic uncertainty – are likely to be substantial.

    Research has shown that United States-based uncertainty spills over into the New Zealand economy by making firms more pessimistic about the future. This pessimism leads to firms delaying investment, ultimately reducing potential output in the future.

    Potential output is important as it represents the economy’s capacity to grow without generating inflation. Potential GDP is affected by productivity, which has also been weaker than expected and one of the reasons Treasury lowered its forecasts after the pre-election fiscal update.

    The lesson from all of this

    New Zealand is running a structural budget deficit. That means the government is spending more than it earns, even accounting for the fact that governments automatically spend more and tax less in economic downturns.

    These deficits add to government debt, which can limit future spending and taxation choices. High debt can also hamper the government’s ability to assist in counteracting the next downturn if the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate is already near zero.

    It can also limit the ability of the government to respond to external shocks such as disasters or extreme weather events. These concerns are possibly behind the government’s goal of returning to surplus by 2029.

    But there are counter-arguments. With pressing needs in many areas, some argue the government should be spending more now to boost productivity and growth. These contrasting views reflect a legitimate debate about values and priorities.

    Still, one point is clear: weaker than expected economic growth since the pre-election update has made the trade-offs between present and future fiscal choices more acute.

    The takeaway is that economic growth is essential for expanding the resources available to both households and governments. This is so they can spend money on things they deem important both now and in the future.

    A growing economy is not just about producing more for prestige – it’s about creating the economic and fiscal resources to improve lives both now and in the future.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ Budget 2025: economic forecasting is notoriously difficult, but global uncertainty is making it harder – https://theconversation.com/nz-budget-2025-economic-forecasting-is-notoriously-difficult-but-global-uncertainty-is-making-it-harder-256469

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –