Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: In Yemen, Trump risks falling into an ‘airpower trap’ that has drawn past US presidents into costly wars

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Charles Walldorf, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University

    A Yemeni soldier inspects the damage reportedly caused by U.S. airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen, on April 27, 2025. AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman

    In the first 100 days of his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has shown a willingness to lean on airpower when his administration decides that military force is necessary abroad.

    So far, the second Trump administration has launched limited airstrikes in Somalia and carried out a weekslong air campaign against the Iranian-aligned Houthis who rule most of Yemen. The president has also threatened direct strikes against Iran itself should talks on a new nuclear deal collapse.

    This turn to airpower for Trump makes sense to me. Airpower is cheap when compared with ground wars, and it usually comes with fewer casualties for those conducting the strikes. This helps explain why U.S. leaders, including Trump as a self-proclaimed “anti-war president,” typically find it attractive.

    But if the Trump administration is not careful, it could fall into what military strategists informally call the “airpower trap.” This happens when the stated objectives of military force are too big for airpower alone to achieve, potentially leading to a face-saving escalation of conflict that could – if history is a guide – draw in ground forces from the U.S. or their local allies.

    U.S. presidents such as Lyndon Johnson, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama all fell into this trap. In Vietnam, the Balkans and Syria, respectively, all ended up with far bigger wars than they bargained for, with consequences for civilian casualties, international peace and damage to America’s reputation abroad.

    As an expert on U.S. national security policy and the Middle East region, I believe the Trump administration is in danger of falling into the airpower trap in Yemen and could potentially do the same in Iran should it elect to use direct force against Tehran. Recognizing this military and historical risk, and opting for some kind of off ramp from continued airstrikes, might be the best hope the U.S. government has to avoid a further escalation into full-scale war.

    The limits of air bombardment

    Research shows airpower is most effective when it’s used for limited objectives – things like taking out leaders of terrorist groups or degrading rival capabilities – or in support of ground operations for more ambitious ends, like bolstering or overturning governments.

    Given the sophistication of U.S. airpower, a common fallacy among American strategists in particular is to think big strategic gains can be achieved solely by dropping bombs from above.

    But when airpower alone fails, leaders can feel the pressure to expand the scope of conflict and end up with bigger military commitments than expected.

    Johnson’s initial airpower-only strategy for attempting to stop communism in South Vietnam failed miserably, leading to his decision to commit half a million U.S. troops into war. That expanded conflict presaged years of war, with massive humanitarian and political consequences for people in Southeast Asia and America, as well as lasting reputational damage to the U.S.

    Yemenis carry the coffins of civilians killed in U.S. airstrikes while participating in their funeral procession on May 1, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen.
    Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

    Worried about U.S. and NATO credibility, Clinton escalated airstrikes – nearly to the point of introducing ground troops – for the ambitious end of stopping genocide in the Balkans during the early 1990s. Likewise, Obama’s initial airpower-only strategy to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State group quickly faltered, leading Obama, under intense pressure at home and abroad, to introduce thousands of ground troops to combat the group’s territorial gains across Syria and Iraq.

    In each case, relying on airpower alone ultimately failed to meet their objectives.

    The airpower trap in Yemen

    There are reasons to believe that conditions in Yemen mean that Trump, too, could be falling into a similar trap.

    Trump has adopted an airpower-only strategy to “completely annihilate” the Houthis, a powerful rebel movement that all but won the recent Yemeni civil war. The proximate cause of the air campaign, a policy inaugurated by the Biden administration and expanded dramatically by Trump, is to restore the free flow of shipping in the Red Sea that the Houthis have disrupted by force to protest Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.

    The early signs are that this air campaign isn’t going well.

    Despite the U.S. burning through finite munitions supplies at a cost of US$1 billion to bomb at least 800 sites since March 15, the Houthis are undeterred and the volume of Red Sea shipping remains as depressed as ever. Houthi attacks on U.S. ships and Israel continue. A Houthi missile narrowly missed Israel’s Ben-Gurion airport on May 4.

    In fact, the direct attacks on the Houthis and the rapidly growing casualty count among Yemeni civilians from the Trump administration’s bombing campaign appear to be strengthening the Houthis’ political position in Yemen. In a particularly shocking case, U.S. bombs reportedly hit an African migrant camp, killing and injuring dozens of people.

    The humanitarian crisis from the brutal bombing campaign by the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in the late 2010s had a similar effect.

    Airpower played a big part then, too. The Saudi coalition, supported by the U.S., engaged in some 25,000 air raids against the Houthis, killing or maiming approximately 19,000 civilians. Yet despite such overwhelming force, the Houthis kept seizing territory and eventually won the civil war, according to experts.

    They have been the country’s de facto rulers ever since.

    Now, Trump is exploring options to further escalate to defeat the Houthis. Reports indicate his administration is considering arming, training and enabling anti-Houthi resistance fighters who are loosely affiliated with Yemen’s government in exile to launch ground operations.

    Between diplomacy and quagmire

    Proxies are a common tool U.S. leaders turn to when caught in the airpower trap. Sometimes those proxies fulfill American policy objectives, such as the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which helped the U.S. defeat the Islamic state caliphate in 2019.

    A U.S. Air Force F-5 Skoshi Tiger drops three general purpose bombs on Vietnam on Feb. 28, 1966.
    Photo by Underwood Archives/Getty Images

    Often, U.S. proxies fail on both strategic and humanitarian terms, leading to further escalation, strategic quagmires for the U.S., and loss of life and political sovereignty for the people under attack. South Vietnam was an instructive example.

    Riven by corruption, poor governance, weakness and political infighting, the South Vietnamese army and government proved so ineffective at fighting the North Vietnamese that Johnson decided to launch a ground war once U.S. airpower failed.

    Today, the anti-Houthi resistance in Yemen looks a lot more like the South Vietnamese government than the Kurdish YPG. According to a 2025 report from the Soufan Center, a security think tank, the anti-Houthi forces are poorly trained and considered incapable of pulling off victories over the Houthis without major U.S. support.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Houthi resistance consists of an estimated 85,000 fighters, compared with some 350,000 for the Houthis.

    Absent continuing the air war or escalating it into a more all-encompassing conflict, U.S. officials can still pursue diplomacy in order to try to find a political solution to the Yemen conflict.

    Despite the Trump’s administration public threats, the U.S. is already negotiating with the Houthis’ main sponsor, Iran.

    For their part, the Houthis continue to insist that they will stop attacking ships in the Red Sea if the U.S.-backed Israeli war in Gaza halts, something that happened during the recent Gaza ceasefire.

    The Trump administration might consider seeking alternatives, such as direct or indirect talks, if it wants to avoid getting stuck in a widening conflict in Yemen. History is full of examples of what happens when airpower takes on a logic of its own.

    Charles Walldorf is a Senior Fellow at the think tank Defense Priorities.

    ref. In Yemen, Trump risks falling into an ‘airpower trap’ that has drawn past US presidents into costly wars – https://theconversation.com/in-yemen-trump-risks-falling-into-an-airpower-trap-that-has-drawn-past-us-presidents-into-costly-wars-255651

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mark Carney heads to Washington: His visit with Trump kicks off high-wire politics in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, Canada

    Prime Minister Mark Carney is headed to Washington, D.C., for a high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump as the American president continues his trade war and annexation threats against Canada.

    “We are meeting as heads of our government,” Carney said at a news conference late last week. “I am not pretending those discussions will be easy.”

    The White House visit comes just a week after Carney led the Liberals to their fourth consecutive election victory.

    It was a result that, at first blush, allowed each party to claim that it won, or at least that it did not totally lose. That sets up a Parliamentary session that will feature several interesting dynamics.

    The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre won several more seats than in 2021 and their highest share of the national vote in decades, though Poilievre himself lost his seat.




    Read more:
    Canada’s Conservatives, with an assist from Donald Trump, are down — but they’re far from out


    The NDP under an outgoing Jagmeet Singh managed to hold onto the balance of power in the upcoming minority Parliament for a third consecutive time. Elizabeth May continues to represent the Green Party in the House of Commons. Yves-François Blanchet kept the Bloc Québécois relevant for voters in Québec.

    Even Justin Trudeau, no longer in politics, won — his legacy is not in the gutter due to a predicted Conservative majority win that never materialized once Carney replaced him.

    But in the coming weeks and months, the leaders and their parties face difficult circumstances that could turn them into losers — most importantly, how Carney manages the relationship with Trump.

    The role of Trump

    Carney and the Liberals capitalized on exceptional
    circumstances
    driven by Donald Trump’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state. Winning four consecutive elections is a rare feat for any political party in Canada.
    But Carney cannot count on fortune continuing to smile upon him. He must now manage a party within which he has little history and few favours to call in — a party that he has dragged from centre-left under Trudeau to centre-right.

    The new prime minister will have to rely on aides and advisers to a much greater extent than all former office-holders who had years or decades of experience in the political area, including the House of Commons. At the same time, he will have to demonstrate to Canadians that he is in charge and makes the final decisions.

    Invariably, there will be Liberal missteps in the weeks ahead: ethical lapses for some MPs, ministerial appointments that go awry and disappointment among those not appointed to cabinet. Because Carney has been prime minister for less than two months, the upcoming Speech from the Throne on May 27 — to be delivered by King Charles — that sets the government’s goals is shrouded in mystery.

    Beyond Ottawa, premiers from several different political parties — each with their own agenda — await Carney. South of the border, the unpredictable Trump, with his infuriating rhetoric and disruptive actions, is in office for another three-and-half-years.

    As a newcomer to politics elected on his first attempt to the country’s highest political office, Carney could have at least have one topic of conversation in common with Trump when they meet on Tuesday. Trump too was a political outsider who catapulted into office on his first attempt. The two may find some bond in their shared experience.

    The greatest danger for Carney is not from Trump’s rhetoric but from broader economic conditions. He ran for office on the promise of being able to manage economic turmoil. But politicians of any stripe have little control in a global economic slump or an all-out tariff war. If unemployment, inflation or the cost-of-living tick upward, Carney will quickly lose his lustre among many Canadians.

    The new Parliament

    For the Conservatives, Poilievre’s leadership will continue to weigh on the party in the weeks and months ahead. Losing his Ottawa seat weakens his claim to stay on as leader. He now needs to win a byelection in Alberta triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP Damien Kurek.

    The worst outcome for the party is years of infighting between those who support giving Poilievre one more chance and those who believe that 2025 is the best the party can do under his leadership.

    The best outcome is for Poilievre to become a bridge-builder within the party and to Conservatives across Canada, and to rebrand himself to be more palatable to Canadian voters. This will not be easy and he hasn’t shown much inclination to do so.

    The NDP’s Singh has already announced his resignation and accepted responsibility for the party electing only seven MPs. A period of soul-searching leading to a leadership contest has already started. The loss of seats, and returning to Ottawa with an interim leader, lessens the voice of the party in political discourse. If a new leader is elected who is not an MP, the party will be further hampered.

    The Greens remain in the House of Commons, but as a party of one. The jury continues is out on whether the party can exist without its leader, Elizabeth May, who has said she wouldn’t rule out joining Carney’s cabinet.

    Blanchet returns to Ottawa with fewer Bloc MPs and a murky mission. He had hoped that the Bloc would hold the balance of power once the votes were counted, but was foiled by the NDP. He has already faced criticism from his own supporters when he promised to collaborate with other parties in Ottawa to secure Canada’s economic future.

    Beginning with Carney’s handling of Trump this week, how skilfully each party, and leader, performs its distinct high-wire act in the next months will determine the ultimate winners and losers. The show is about to start.

    Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Mark Carney heads to Washington: His visit with Trump kicks off high-wire politics in Canada – https://theconversation.com/mark-carney-heads-to-washington-his-visit-with-trump-kicks-off-high-wire-politics-in-canada-255675

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: To the brink and back: How near-death experiences can change how people work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Akierah Binns, PhD Management Candidate, University of Guelph

    New research on near-death experiences challenges conventional ideas about success, motivation and workplace culture. (Shutterstock)

    What happens when someone comes close to death and then returns to everyday life, including work? For some, the experience can be transformative.

    Near-death experiences (NDEs) are deeply personal experiences that some people report after a close brush with death. These experiences can include sensations such as floating above one’s body, reviewing moments from one’s life, encountering spiritual beings and feeling a profound sense of unity and love.

    Although NDEs have been studied since the 1970s, we know relatively little about how they affect people after the event. Research suggests people who have near-death experiences may feel increased empathy, spiritual growth, a sense of purpose and even change how they approach their jobs.

    Our recent study explored how near-death experiences impact people’s return to work. We interviewed 14 working adults who had a near-death experience as a result of medical crises such as a heart attack or accidents such as a car crash. What we found challenges conventional ideas about success, motivation and workplace culture.

    Doing meaningful work

    One of the most common changes expressed by the participants in our study was a desire to do work that felt meaningful and aligned with their newfound purpose in life.

    After their near-death experiences, many wanted to spend time doing work that mattered to them and made a positive difference.

    “I was not interested in doing nonsense … I just was not gonna waste my time on nonsense,” one participant told us. Her perspective shifted dramatically after her heart began beating abnormally for 20 minutes and she lost consciousness.

    Others described similar shifts. Many participants changed their careers by focusing on different work priorities, switching jobs or even starting their own companies. One participant described quitting a high-earning job after being headhunted. She started her own business, which allowed her to use her own NDE to support individuals through the end-of-life process.

    As one participant put it:

    “I like to say that when I woke up in that hospital bed, I had a knowing that the character I was playing was no longer working for me and I had to change characters, and changing that character meant changing that job.”

    Rethinking motivation

    Another significant shift reported by participants was a reprioritization of their values, which, in turn, shifted their attitudes towards work and their careers.

    After experiencing a near-death experience, many lost interest in external measures of success such as salary, fancy titles and prestige. Across the study’s participants, all reported no longer being motivated by extrinsic factors, such as money or receiving recognition for work.

    Instead, they focused on internal alignment and authenticity. Rather than being driven by external rewards, participants were motivated by personal growth and making a positive difference.

    In some workplaces, employee motivation is driven by extrinsic incentives such as bonuses, promotions or external recognition. However, after their NDEs, participants reported being driven by their own internal benchmarks or purpose.

    As one of our interviewees said:

    “The motivation that was there came from this very strange, deep place that I wanted to all of a sudden make a huge impact, you know, in every part of my life … It’s hard to come out of this experience and not feel there’s a reason why you’re here, and you hate to say it, but you feel you have this special gift now. And it’s like why and how am I going to apply this? So, with work, I approach it that way as well.”

    Relational transformations

    We also found that near-death experiences transformed how people interacted with and related to others at work. This is consistent with previous research that shows distinct personality and attitude changes reported by survivors of NDES. Specifically, NDEs shift individual outlooks on life and can serve as catalysts for transformation, influencing how people relate to others.

    Before their near-death experience, many participants viewed workplace relationships as task-oriented and transactional. But afterward, those same relationships became more meaningful to them.

    Colleagues, clients and customers were no longer viewed as just business contacts. Instead, several participants spoke of their service and sales interactions as small acts of relationship-building rather than simply being economic exchanges.

    One participant said:

    “My relationships across the board are deeper, are more connected with people, a hundred per cent … I was a decent salesman before but this is, like, bringing spirituality into a quote-unquote sales position, which blows my mind.”

    One of the most common changes described by participants was a desire to do work that felt meaningful and aligned with a newfound sense of purpose.
    (Shutterstock)

    Lessons for the rest of us

    What does this mean for those of us who haven’t had a near-death experience?

    The participants in our study said their near-death experiences reoriented them to what really matters in life. The after-effects challenge traditional organizational values that celebrate hyper-productivity at the expense of meaning and high-quality relationships. As previous studies suggest, workers engaged in meaningful work eventually manifest greater productivity and accomplishment as opposed to burnout as a result of overwork.

    As interest in workplace well-being continues to rise — particularly in the wake of COVID-19 and the “great resignation” — NDE survivors may be ahead of the curve.

    The after-effects of a near-death experience align with what workers tend to want from their jobs. Workers generally want to satisfy three fundamental needs: economic security, meaningful work and high-quality relationships. Our results suggest that NDE after-effects result in reductions in the importance of satisfying the drive for economic security and elevate the significance of meaningful work and authentic relationships.

    The stories of near-death experience survivors offer a kind of blueprint for reimagining how we work. For employees, that might mean re-evaluating what success looks like or exploring roles that align more closely with personal values. For employers, it might involve fostering workplace cultures that prioritize connection, purpose and well-being.

    One participant offers a lasting reminder for all of us seeking more meaning in our life and jobs: “It’s about relationships, not achievements.”

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. To the brink and back: How near-death experiences can change how people work – https://theconversation.com/to-the-brink-and-back-how-near-death-experiences-can-change-how-people-work-254443

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How industrial diversity affects local employment growth in France

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Nadine Levratto, Directrice de Recherche au CNRS, Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris Lumières

    In an interconnected global economy, regions face recurring economic shocks and intense competition. For policymakers and researchers, understanding the drivers of local employment growth has become critical. Recent theoretical advances highlight the importance of different relational proximities that influence the benefits of the geographic clustering of economic activities.

    Our research focusing on France’s labour market areas – “geographical areas within which most of the labour force lives and works” – from 2004 to 2015 offers new insights into how industrial diversity affects local employment. The study finds that having a variety of industries – especially those related to one another – can be a significant driver of employment growth. This finding has crucial implications for regional development strategies.


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    Related vs. unrelated diversity

    Economic geography literature distinguishes between two types of diversity: related variety and unrelated variety. Here, variety refers to industrial diversity or, more precisely, the different kinds of industrial sectors or technologies. The prevailing argument is that knowledge spillovers within a region, which are known to boost employment, occur primarily among related industries and to a limited extent between unrelated industries.

    Related variety describes a situation in which industries share common elements, as do pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. Such elements allow for synergies, collaboration and innovation by the leveraging of similarities in knowledge bases, technologies and skills. By contrast, unrelated variety describes a situation in which industries have little in common, as do agriculture and software development. Unrelated industries operate in entirely different domains, leading to weaker direct synergies, but potentially fostering innovation through difference.

    Impacts on employment

    While unrelated variety offers protection against industry-specific downturns, it does not have the same direct impact on employment growth as related variety. Our research approach distinguishes between these two varieties at the local level (i.e. within a labour market area) and at the neighbourhood one (i.e. between adjacent labour market areas).

    Our analysis finds that regions with industries with high related variety experienced higher employment growth from 2004 to 2015, especially during periods of economic expansion. This effect was particularly pronounced in sectors like machinery, chemicals and IT, which demonstrated strong positive impacts on local employment. We found that when industries share similarities in knowledge bases, technologies or supply chains, they create conditions for interactive learning and innovation. This process fosters intersectoral knowledge flows, enhancing regions’ capacity to adapt and grow. It can help provide balance between regional specialization, which risks stagnation due to industries’ excessive cognitive proximity – a condition economists call “lock-in” – and regional diversity, which may face challenges from too much cognitive distance.

    Unrelated variety showed a more complex relationship with employment. While local unrelated variety cushioned regions from economic shocks (since sectors are less vulnerable to industry-specific downturns), it did not directly drive employment growth as related variety did. We also found that unrelated variety in neighbouring regions exerted a negative influence on local employment dynamics.

    Employment and the 2008 financial crisis

    During the 2008 global financial crisis, knowledge spillovers from neighbouring regions helped mitigate the impact of the economic shock. The neighbourhood effects of related industries acted as a buffer, stabilizing local employment and protecting regions from greater losses.

    Drivers of local employment growth in France from 2004 to 2015

    Source: INSEE, CLAP 2004-2015. Authors’ calculation. NS: not significant.
    Fourni par l’auteur

    Urban-rural dynamics

    The difference between rural and urban areas is another important dimension. Our research found that related variety of diversity had a more pronounced positive effect in urban areas, where high concentrations of industries enable faster innovation and employment growth. Rural areas benefitted less from these knowledge spillovers, likely due to a less dense industrial ecosystem. This urban-rural divide highlights the need for tailored economic policies to support diverse regional needs.

    Policy implications

    For policymakers, fostering sectoral diversity, particularly the related variety, should be a priority. They could encourage collaboration between related sectors within regions to enhance resilience and growth. This would consist of supporting the development of innovation clusters where businesses in related sectors are geographically concentrated, or platforms for cross-sector collaboration where businesses, universities, research institutions and government agencies can share knowledge and explore partnerships. Promoting interregional cooperation could also help spread the benefits of related variety across neighbouring regions, especially during periods of economic crisis.

    Policymakers should also consider the role of the unrelated variety of diversity. While unrelated sectors may not directly contribute to employment growth, they provide stability when economic uncertainty dominates by diversifying the regional economy. Encouraging a balance between related and unrelated sectors could offer the best of both worlds – innovation-driven growth and economic resilience.

    Sectoral diversity – especially when it comes to related industries – is a key driver of local employment growth in France. However, for regions to thrive, policymakers must not only support the growth of local industries but also foster cross-regional cooperation. The lessons from France’s labour market areas provide insights for regions worldwide seeking to navigate the complexities of economic development.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    ref. How industrial diversity affects local employment growth in France – https://theconversation.com/how-industrial-diversity-affects-local-employment-growth-in-france-251729

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investing in agriculture reduces poverty and inequality: economic model finds the best funding mix for 10 African countries

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria

    Africa faces challenges in reducing extreme poverty and inequality. In 2024, 8.5% of the global population was living in extreme poverty (that is, on less than US$2.15 a day). Nearly 67% of these people were living in sub-Saharan Africa.

    To tackle these significant issues of poverty and inequality, it is essential to identify the locations of the most impoverished individuals. This enables investments to focus on generating growth and productivity that are both inclusive of poor people and sustainable.

    About 70% of the poor in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas. Most (65% to 70%) are employed in agriculture. Agriculture also contributes 30%-40% to the gross domestic product (GDP).

    Despite its importance, agriculture is underfunded. African countries don’t have enough of their own resources to finance agriculture, and external funding is becoming more scarce.

    The region thus desperately needs an innovative plan to finance agriculture for economic development.

    In a recent study we analysed
    how different ways of funding agricultural investment would affect inclusive growth and the wider economy in 10 African countries. Raising taxes, cutting budgets and external support were the different funding options we explored.

    We created economic models that would help countries with tight budgets understand the trade-offs and choose the best options.

    Our study found that investing more in agriculture – especially with external financing – was best at raising incomes and reducing poverty, particularly in rural areas. External funding avoids the higher costs of domestic financing. But a mix of both is also effective.

    Regardless of the country, all financing options resulted in increased rural incomes, reducing poverty and hunger. This shows that investment in agriculture has a positive impact both nationally and in rural contexts.

    The model

    Our paper uses an economic simulation model which looks at the big picture and also at more detail. It works out how changes in agricultural spending affect people’s lives (in terms of their income and expenditure) as well as the overall economy.

    The countries studied were Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, Rwanda, Gabon, Malawi, eSwatini, Lesotho and Zimbabwe. We chose them based on the availability and accessibility of the data required.

    The model worked out the results of different financing strategies:

    • Increase in taxes (direct ones like household income and property tax or indirect ones like VAT or sales tax). The idea is that spending more on agriculture would be compensated for by higher tax revenues. These would come from households’ growing income and property taxes.

    • Reduction in non-agricultural investment spending. Here, the proportion of government investment dedicated to agriculture remains fixed. So there has to be less investment elsewhere.

    • Increase in government external borrowing or development assistance.

    Key findings

    We found that external financing boosted both national and rural incomes the most. But variations in the exchange rate may trigger an increase in domestic prices and a subsequent decline in export volumes. That could make a country less competitive economically.

    Despite this, the associated costs are generally lower than those of internal financing, aside from Mozambique’s rural income results.

    Between the two internal financing mechanisms tested, the option of reducing non-agricultural investment raised both national income and rural income in all countries except eSwatini.

    So that option should play a key role along with external financing.

    This finding is encouraging for fiscally constrained countries as the modelling showed that domestic financing improved the countries’ agency in sustainable growth.

    In a final modelling phase, the models explored how the policy interventions could transform poverty and inequality outcomes. They did this by following the intricate interplay of income and price dynamics. After a surge in agricultural investments following the policy scenarios, the findings showed a more pronounced reduction in poverty and inequality rates across all nations. There was one notable outlier — Angola. In Angola, investments channelled into the services sector have sparked the most substantial decreases in poverty and inequality, driven by the deep interconnectivity between services and its expansive oil industry.

    Even a small increase in public investment led to a clear drop in poverty, with agriculture investments having the biggest impact, followed by industry and services. Malawi showed the most substantial reduction in poverty. There were also noticeable effects in Rwanda, Botswana, eSwatini and Angola.

    Other countries showed mild impacts, maintaining low poverty levels.

    What can be done

    Scenario modelling can offer valuable insights for policy making because it is forward-looking. It also highlights the implications of strategic priorities.

    The study’s findings show that to achieve inclusive economic growth, countries should aggressively invest in agriculture, using a mix of external and domestic fiscal sources.

    On the back of the findings we made the following proposals.

    African governments are dependent on development aid because of limited domestic finances and weak growth prospects. This gets in the way of their ability to raise funds in the markets. However, if concessional financing is attainable and exchange rate impacts are controllable, external financing should remain a preferable option for financing agriculture investments.

    In the medium term, governments must focus on:

    • cutting unproductive non-agricultural spending

    • eliminating waste

    • ensuring cost-effectiveness.

    Savings should be redirected to agriculture.

    Over the medium term, there should be a focus on reforming tax policies. Direct and indirect taxes should be increased to fund agricultural investment. But maintaining transparency in using tax revenues is crucial. This encourages public support and local ownership of tax reforms by demonstrating their benefits.

    In the long term, governments should synchronise national development plans with ambitious agricultural growth initiatives.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Investing in agriculture reduces poverty and inequality: economic model finds the best funding mix for 10 African countries – https://theconversation.com/investing-in-agriculture-reduces-poverty-and-inequality-economic-model-finds-the-best-funding-mix-for-10-african-countries-252820

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: 30 years of free basic education in Ghana: a report card

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Pearl S. Kyei, Senior lecturer, University of Ghana

    Ghana, like many sub-Saharan Africa countries, began investing substantially in free education three decades ago. This led to an increase in the number of children that attend primary school. But what has the impact been on learning outcomes?

    The Conversation Africa spoke to demographer Pearl Kyei, who, with economists Fred Dzanku and Samuel Annim, has researched population literacy and numeracy in Ghana after three decades of free education.

    How long has Ghana offered free basic education?

    Ghana introduced what it calls the Free Compulsory Universal Basic Education (FCUBE) programme in 1994. This meant that families could send children to public schools without paying school fees. In 2005, it introduced the Capitation Grant Scheme to further reduce financial barriers to education and increase access. The grant was to discourage schools from charging unapproved fees and levies to make up for the lost tuition fees.

    Basic education in Ghana currently covers the pre-primary, primary and lower secondary levels. Pre-primary involves two years of kindergarten (for ages 4 and 5 years), primary is six years (for ages 6 to 11 years), and lower secondary is three years of junior high school (for ages 12 to 14 years). After junior high school, students have the option to continue to senior high, technical or vocational school (for ages 15 to 17 years).

    Several other countries on the continent, such as Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, have put in place free basic education policies too. This is due to the adoption of the Continental Education Strategy for Africa (2016 – 2025) which references the post-2015 commitment of African governments to provide a basic education of 10 to 12 years and to provide at least one year of free pre-primary education.

    How is the policy implemented?

    Ghana’s 1992 constitution states that “basic education shall be free, compulsory and available to all”. From 1994, primary and junior high schools had to provide fee-free tuition. Financial support from government was later introduced (capitation grants) to compensate public schools for the loss of fees.

    The Capitation Grant Scheme provides money to schools each term to help cover costs. The government gives a set amount of money per student to public schools every year. This money is distributed to public schools based on the number of enrolled students, and each student receives a specific amount of money under the grant. This amount is in addition to the main education budget. The 2024 Mid-Year Budget Review reported that the capitation grant was GH₵ 15 per child (approximately US$1) per term in 2024.

    Is it working?

    Since the introduction of the 1994 free schooling programme, Ghana has recorded substantial increases in enrolment rates at the basic education level.

    Research shows there are several problems, however. These include:

    All these are likely to affect the quality of education and learning outcomes of students.

    What has the impact been on outcomes?

    We conducted research to understand whether people’s basic reading and math skills in Ghana had improved over time after many years of expanding education. The study compared groups with similar levels of schooling using two national surveys taken 10 years apart to find out if there had been a meaningful change in basic reading and math skills.

    We used data from two nationwide Ghana Living Standards Surveys, conducted in 2006 and 2017. During the data collection, interviewers used flashcards to measure the basic reading and math skills of survey respondents. Persons aged 11 or older were shown flashcards. To answer “yes” to questions about whether they could read or solve written calculations, they had to read a sentence fully and answer a simple math problem correctly.

    In the study we defined “basically literate” as being able to read a short English sentence, and “basically numerate” meant being able to solve a simple written math problem. The sample for our study comprised 25,424 and 42,376 persons in 2006 and in 2017 respectively.

    We found that the percentage of persons 11 years and older in the sample who have never attended school declined from 28% in 2006 to 16% in 2017. But there was a decline in literacy and numeracy for persons with basic education.

    The observed decline was larger for math than for literacy. For instance, those with upper primary education (class 4 to 6) were 14% less likely to be able to correctly read a short sentence in 2017 compared to 2006. For math, the likelihood of persons with upper primary education correctly solving the math problem was 25% lower in 2017.

    The study additionally found that basic literacy and numeracy declined more in urban areas than in rural areas at the lower and upper primary levels. Trends for males and females were largely similar.

    How can it be improved?

    Our findings suggest that without focusing on investments that maintain quality as enrolment increases – like hiring well-trained teachers, providing enough funding, and supplying schools with adequate materials – free education programmes could lead to long-term declines in learning outcomes.

    Such declines in basic literacy and numeracy would likely have a negative effect on job productivity, the economy, and social inclusion in the long run.

    So there is a need to invest more in quality education to go along with increased access. These investments would help students acquire the foundational skills they need and ensure that free education leads to lasting improvements in skills that are crucial for national growth.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. 30 years of free basic education in Ghana: a report card – https://theconversation.com/30-years-of-free-basic-education-in-ghana-a-report-card-253993

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: City police in South Africa’s capital have a bad image – how to fix it

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Azwihangwisi Judith Mphidi, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Tshwane University of Technology

    Corruption in South Africa’s public institutions has been a pressing issue for the past two decades. From national government offices to local municipalities, stories of officials enriching themselves at the expense of the public have become all too familiar.

    The Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department – responsible for traffic policing, crime prevention, and by-law enforcement in South Africa’s capital city – has not escaped this crisis.

    With over four million residents spread across 6,298 square kilometres, Tshwane plays a vital role in the country’s political and economic landscape. Yet its municipal police department, one of the largest in South Africa, with an average of 4,000 operational staff, is increasingly associated with allegations of bribery, abuse of power and unethical behaviour.

    I am a postdoctoral researcher with a focus on criminal justice, and an active social justice advocate. In a recent research paper, I explored how corruption in the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department is damaging public trust and compromising law enforcement and crime prevention.

    I was able to observe the culture and environment of the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department as a motorist and as an employee under the city’s Community and Social Development Department.

    My research drew on texts and context rather than analysis of numbers, since the study was written after I left the City of Tshwane. I relied on my first hand experience, and already published and documented evidence. I did not need special permissions to do this but cited sources consulted.

    The study found that motorists view the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department as predators rather than protectors. Corruption in the traffic police is more than a betrayal of public trust. When officers take bribes instead of enforcing traffic laws, road safety suffers.

    Inside the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department

    In recent years, the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department has been accused of recruiting members with criminal records and cases of corruption.

    My key findings were about:

    Hiring practices: Individuals with criminal records have been recruited into the department. Vetting is conducted, but the reports come later when they are already employed, then they are expelled.

    Bribery: Motorists frequently report officers soliciting bribes during routine traffic stops or other bribery related incidences. Some of these reports are made to the mayoral committee member for community safety.

    Lack of accountability: Officers implicated in corruption are not always dismissed, or may face minimal consequences.

    Public complaints: Over 200 officers have been under investigation for various misconduct allegations in recent years.

    Political interference and leadership instability

    In the course of the research, I found that another key factor undermining the effectiveness of the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department is political interference in operational matters and leadership appointments as a result of the structure of the municipalities across the country. All mayoral committee executives and council members are politicians.

    Frequent reshuffling of senior leaders based on politics rather than merit weakens strategic direction and fosters corruption. Politically connected individuals often secure positions without proper vetting, either due to delays in completing reports or human resources not waiting for the report before proceeding with appointments.

    The combination of weak vetting processes, inadequate oversight, and political interference has created an environment where corruption is not only possible but, in some cases, normalised.

    Damage to the capital city’s global reputation and tourism

    The corruption within the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department not only affects local residents but also tarnishes Pretoria’s reputation as South Africa’s administrative capital, home to embassies from around the world.

    As the city hosts more than 130 foreign diplomatic missions — the second-largest concentration of embassies in the world after Washington DC — the behaviour of municipal police officers directly influences the capital city’s global image.

    When officers solicit bribes or abuse their power during routine traffic stops, they might not distinguish between local residents, foreign diplomats or tourists. This indiscriminate targeting is likely to create an unsafe environment for international visitors and damage the trust of foreign nations engaging with South Africa.

    What needs to be done

    Addressing corruption in the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department will require urgent reforms. Based on the research, I argue that the following actions are essential:

    Stricter recruitment processes: Background checks should be mandatory for all officers. Individuals found to have criminal records should be disqualified from serving.

    Body cameras and digital monitoring: Equipping officers with body cameras would provide an objective record of interactions with the public.

    Independent oversight: An external body should be established to investigate complaints and ensure accountability. Currently, municipal policing is governed by the South African Police Service Act 68 of 1995, and the Independent Police Investigative Directorate investigates some complaints. But it appears to have limited resources.

    Ethics training: All officers should get regular training to reinforce the importance of integrity and professionalism. They are currently trained at the Police Academy and get support from academic institutions, including the University of Pretoria.

    Community engagement: Building partnerships between the Tshwane Metropolitan Police Department and the communities it serves can help restore trust and improve transparency.

    Municipal policing law

    Restoring public confidence requires more than piecemeal reforms — it demands a new legal framework.

    A South African Municipal Policing Act could create a unified standard for municipal policing across the country, addressing many of the root causes of corruption. This legislation could introduce:

    National municipal police officers register: A centralised database that records applications, criminal background checks, disciplinary history, and performance assessments of all municipal officers.

    Uniform ethical standards: Clear ethical guidelines that apply to all municipal police officers, regardless of location.

    Independent oversight: An investigative body focused solely on municipal policing.

    Mandatory pre-vetting process: All applicants would undergo fingerprint-based criminal record checks.

    Cross-municipal blacklisting: Officers dismissed or suspended from one municipality would be automatically barred from working in another.

    Digital recording systems: All municipal police vehicles and personnel would be equipped with body cameras and GPS tracking systems to improve accountability.

    A framework like this would close loopholes that allow corrupt officers to move between municipalities undetected. It would also prevent the recycling of officers with criminal records.

    Azwihangwisi Judith Mphidi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. City police in South Africa’s capital have a bad image – how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/city-police-in-south-africas-capital-have-a-bad-image-how-to-fix-it-251505

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Marine fossil found in South Africa is one of a kind, thanks to unusual preservation

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sarah Gabbott, Professor of Palaeontology, University of Leicester

    A fossilised creature found in a South African roadside quarry 25 years ago has finally got an official name. The small, segmented, crustacean-like creature, dated to 444 million years ago, can now be introduced as Keurbos susanae. It belongs to the arthropod group of animals, which accounts for about 84% of all known species that exist today, including insects, spiders and crabs.

    Palaeontologist Sarah Gabbott explains what’s so unusual about her discovery, which she named as part of the process of describing it scientifically.

    What can you tell us about this creature and the environment it lived in?

    The fossil is about 50cm long and has 46 almost identical segments. Projecting from each is a delicate, gill-like structure. It would probably have looked like a bit like a horseshoe crab and the gills would have been for absorbing oxygen from the water it lived in. Its insides are exquisitely well-preserved, which is very unusual for fossils – normally only the hard, more decay-resistant external features would be preserved. You can see bundles of muscle fibres that would have powered the limbs, tendons and an internal scaffold structure that gave the animal rigidity.

    We think it would have spent most of its life living on, or more likely just above, the seafloor, probably walking and swimming in an undulatory (waving) motion.

    It lived in the immediate aftermath of the end Ordovician extinction event more than 440 million years ago, caused by glaciations (the spread of icy conditions) across vast swaths of the planet. This extinction wiped out about 85% of Earth’s species. The marine basin that Keurbos susanae inhabited was probably very cold and at times covered with sea ice.

    It was a relatively hostile environment in other ways too. Our analyses of the chemistry of the shales – the sediments on the sea bed where this animal and others lived, now turned to rock – shows that they were deposited under anoxic conditions (that is, there was no oxygen circulating freely in the water). And at times free hydrogen sulfide occurred in the sediment porewaters (the water in tiny spaces between grains of sediment) and even above the seafloor. Not much could live in these conditions and this was critical to this fossil’s amazing preservation.

    It meant the carcass was not scavenged by other animals after it died. Also, the chemistry was important in the process whereby the soft tissues, which should usually rot away rapidly, became mineralised quickly after death. This turned the animal’s anatomy to mineral which survived for hundreds of millions of years until it was discovered.

    It is preserved “inside out”.

    Keurbos susanae is a new genus and species which we are still trying to place among other early arthropods. The fact that its insides are better preserved than its outside makes it difficult to compare with other fossils that are preserved the “other way round”.

    How did you find the fossil and what else has been found in that area?

    The site is in the Cedarberg mountains, north of Cape Town. To collect fossils in this area you need a permit granted by the Council for Geoscience. Fossil-bearing rocks are protected by law because of their heritage and scientific value.

    Fossil hunting in these rocks takes a lot of hard work and patience, splitting open the shales with a hammer and chisel. These shale rocks are what’s left of layers of silt that were once on the sea floor. The fossils here are super rare: you can dig and split shale for days and not find a single fossil! But we know there are some in there because of discoveries made previously.

    I found two specimens. The first one is complete but the second one only has the middle part of the body preserved.

    In the same rocks we have found some of the earliest vertebrate fossils with mineralised teeth, called conodonts. They were eel shaped and predatory. Also eurypterids (sea scorpions), arthropods with powerful swimming appendages, which would have cruised through the frigid waters. There are also orthocones – a type of chambered cephalopod – like the mollusc fossils called ammonites, which have been found in large numbers, but with a straight shell instead of coiled.

    Why has it taken 25 years to describe Keurbos susanae scientifically?

    Two reasons really.

    First, because of the nature of preservation, where all the insides are perfectly preserved but the outside (the carapace or body covering) is absent, it is just difficult to interpret and compare to other fossils. And secondly because the specimen’s head and legs are missing and these are key characteristics that palaeontologists would use to help them to understand the evolutionary relationships of such fossils.

    If more specimens were to be found, with their heads and legs, we could be more certain about where this fossil fitted in the scheme of life. But the site where I found it has been covered in a lot of rock from quarrying activity. So we decided to describe what we had in the meantime, and not wait for more examples.

    The fossil’s name, Keurbos susanae, refers to the place where I found it and to my mother, Sue, who encouraged me to follow a career that made me happy, whatever that might be.

    Sarah Gabbott receives funding from Natural Environmental Research Council; National Geographic. She is affiliated with Green Circle Nature Regeneration CIC a not for profit Environmental Community Interest Company in the UK

    ref. Marine fossil found in South Africa is one of a kind, thanks to unusual preservation – https://theconversation.com/marine-fossil-found-in-south-africa-is-one-of-a-kind-thanks-to-unusual-preservation-255256

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Menopause symptoms may be critical to understanding Alzheimer’s disease risk in women

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jasper Crockford, Medical Science Master’s Student, University of Calgary

    Hot flashes, night sweats, vaginal dryness, urinary tract infections, irregular periods, low libido, trouble sleeping, brain fog, mood swings — and in rare cases, even a burning tongue sensation. What might all these symptoms have in common? They can all be signs of menopause.

    But could these symptoms hint at a greater story? New research suggests that menopause symptoms are not just immediate hurdles to overcome; they might also hold clues about a person’s future health, including their risk for conditions like dementia. However, to understand this connection, we must first understand what menopause is and how it affects the brain and body.

    Symptoms may emerge during the hormonal changes of menopause.
    (FreePik)

    What is menopause?

    Menopause marks the natural end of a woman’s menstrual periods, typically occurring in their late 40s or early 50s. Officially, menopause describes the specific day when someone has gone a full year without a period.

    However, menopause doesn’t happen overnight. It often starts years earlier with a phase called perimenopause. During this time, the body prepares for menopause, and hormone levels — especially estrogen — fluctuate. This transition can last several years, often bringing symptoms like irregular periods, hot flashes, mood swings and more.

    Once periods stop completely, a woman enters postmenopause. Unfortunately, symptoms don’t always end here; some may persist for years, and new symptoms may appear.

    These stages — perimenopause, menopause and postmenopause — are all part of the same journey, though each person’s experience is unique.

    An all too similar patient’s journey

    While menopause is a natural process, its symptoms can feel anything but. Some people may experience mild or no symptoms, while others struggle with numerous and severe symptoms that disrupt daily life.

    Symptoms like anxiety can make socializing difficult, sleep problems can lead to exhaustion and brain fog can make even simple tasks feel daunting. Together, these challenges can affect thoughts, feelings and social lives — key aspects to overall health.

    Symptoms like anxiety can make socializing difficult, sleep problems can lead to exhaustion and brain fog can make even simple tasks feel daunting.
    (FreePik)

    Why menopause matters beyond the present

    Understanding menopause and its symptoms is just the beginning. Beyond being a transitional phase, the challenges of menopause may offer a unique window into future brain health.

    Take Alzheimer’s disease, the most common cause of dementia, marked by progressive memory loss, emotional and personality changes, and eventually, a loss of independence. Women are twice as likely as men to develop Alzheimer’s disease. In the past, research thought this difference was because women live longer than men, but new research suggests that menopause-related hormone changes may also play a critical role.

    Estrogen helps protect memory, strengthen neural connections, regulate mood and remove harmful proteins from the brain. When estrogen levels fall, these health benefits may weaken.
    (FreePik)

    The role of hormones in brain health

    During menopause, the ovaries stop producing eggs, triggering significant hormonal changes. One major change is the drop in estrogen, a hormone not only essential for reproduction, but also brain health.

    Estrogen helps protect memory, strengthen neural connections, regulate mood and remove harmful proteins from the brain. When estrogen levels fall, these health benefits may weaken, possibly leaving the brain and body more vulnerable to harmful changes.

    During these hormonal changes, menopause symptoms may also emerge. While symptoms were once thought to be temporary, albeit uncomfortable, side-effects of menopause, these symptoms may also signal underlying brain changes linked to dementia risk.

    Future cognitive and behavioural health

    While past research has examined how individual menopausal symptoms may relate to dementia risk, our research team (led by Dr. Zahinoor Ismail, a physician-scientist) asked: could the number of symptoms experienced also indicate early warning signs of dementia?

    We explored this by analyzing changes in:

    1. Cognition (for example, memory, thinking, and problem-solving) and

    2. Behaviour (for example, emotions, personality, and social interactions).

    While cognitive changes are often top of mind when thinking about dementia, behavioural changes are equally important but frequently overlooked, and might also be early warning signs.

    We examined data from 896 postmenopausal participants in the CAN-PROTECT study, an online Canadian project on aging and brain health. Participants recalled the type and number of symptoms they experienced during perimenopause and completed tests assessing their current cognition and behaviour.

    Among the participants, 74.3 per cent experienced perimenopausal symptoms — an average four symptoms per person — with hot flashes (88 per cent) and night sweats (70 per cent) being most common.

    Menopause symptoms may signal underlying brain changes linked to dementia risk.
    (Shutterstock)

    Our findings revealed that experiencing more symptoms during perimenopause was associated with greater cognitive and behavioural changes later in life, suggesting the burden of perimenopausal symptoms not only affected immediate well-being, but could also signal long-term brain health risks.

    While the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, these findings highlight the importance of recognizing menopausal symptoms as potential early indicators of future brain health.

    Interestingly, participants who used estrogen-based hormone therapies for perimenopausal symptoms showed fewer behavioural changes than non-users, suggesting a possible role for estrogen in dementia risk reduction. However, further research is critical to clarify the timing and long-term effects of hormone therapy.

    It’s important to understand that these findings show a relationship between symptom burden and later brain health, but do not prove that one causes the other. We still need more research to understand why a connection exists and how it works.

    Menopause is more than a life transition; it may offer critical insights into long-term brain health.
    (FreePik)

    Why this research matters

    Our research highlights a crucial link: experiencing multiple perimenopausal symptoms may be related to cognitive and behavioural changes, which are early risk markers of dementia. Recognizing these symptoms as potential warning signs could help health care providers identify risks sooner and explore ways to protect brain health over time.

    Menopause is more than a life transition; it may offer critical insights into long-term brain health. Supporting research like CAN-PROTECT, which is still recruiting participants, can help us uncover how menopause experiences shape dementia risk, paving the way for earlier interventions and better outcomes.

    Zahinoor Ismail receives funding from Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    Jasper Crockford and Maryam Ghahremani do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Menopause symptoms may be critical to understanding Alzheimer’s disease risk in women – https://theconversation.com/menopause-symptoms-may-be-critical-to-understanding-alzheimers-disease-risk-in-women-253216

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lessons from the fashion industry: Why some DEI efforts fail to resonate with consumers

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jordan Foster, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Sociology, McMaster University

    United States President Donald Trump and his administration have set their sights on the “tyranny of so-called diversity, equity and inclusion policies,” firing federal staff and purging public institutions like the Smithsonian of their commitments to racial history.

    Although many of Trump’s executive orders have focused on the federal government, some firms and private businesses have followed suit, rolling back their own commitments to DEI. For example, META and Amazon cut back their DEI efforts while some major retailers have severed ties with Black-owned businesses.

    Figures located within the fashion and beauty industry have also floundered in their commitments to DEI, investing in brief and uneven surges in racial representation on the runway and the inclusion of older models, trans models and models with disabilities.

    Industry leaders like Teen Vogue positioned models with disabilities on its cover, while brands like Aerie and Victoria Secret invested in more varied representations of beauty in their advertisements. Others however, took steps forward, then back.

    In 2021, we wrote about Victoria’s Secret’s efforts, arguing that the brand had learned that diversity sells. At the time, we noted how brands were encouraging one another to join the “inclusion revolution” — a movement Victoria’s Secret abandoned soon after.

    Had we got it wrong? We weren’t the only ones with questions.

    Backtracking on DEI?

    In 2023, British columnist Barbara Ellen noted: “For some gloaters, this is confirmation of ‘go woke, go broke,’ but the truth could be more complicated.” She went on to ask: “Is it really wokery that has scuppered Victoria’s Secret’s empowerment reboot, or is this more a corporate cautionary tale about the perils of ‘faking it?’”

    That same year, Vogue reported on the myriad ways “fashion backtracked on diversity,” drawing attention to “growing fatigue” surrounding DEI initiatives and what many perceived as insincere and performative gestures made in the name of diversity and inclusion.

    Since then, some within the fashion and beauty landscape have held firm to their commitments, while others have reneged on their promise to reflect on and represent consumer diversity. Why?

    In our ongoing work examining the rise (and fall?) of DEI in fashion and beauty, we’ve collected survey data from those who work inside the industry as well as everyday consumers.

    In looking at our data, we’ve found that certainly, some consumers do not support DEI efforts. These tend to be people who generally express attitudes aligned with those of the current U.S government.

    But we also found many more individuals who broadly like the idea of increased diversity in fashion and beauty. Sure, they expressed their fair share of skepticism toward brands that are overly “performative” in their demonstrations, but most want to see diverse figures and faces who look like them.

    Some brands may abandon DEI efforts, but we venture to guess that more brands will either continue on and stay quiet about their efforts for now, or reimagine their campaigns in the months and years to come.

    What could these campaigns look like? And what can brands do to insulate their efforts from attack?

    Capturing diversity and inclusion

    In our recently published study, we discuss the challenges that accompany DEI within the beauty industry, particularly focusing on how DEI efforts are evolving amid longstanding barriers.

    We focused on the beauty brands Benefit Cosmetics, Sephora and Dove, which have all made strides by featuring models with disabilities, racialized models and fuller-figured models in their online campaigns.

    While these advertising campaigns had their merits, we also noticed a significant under-representation of some forms of diversity in advertisements and campaign images. For example, models above the age of 55 and models with a visible disability were almost completely absent from representations of beauty online.

    Additionally, images were often altered to remove visible differences around race and disability or they were featured in ways that minimized markers of difference. This editing tends to hide what makes these individuals unique — the aspects of their appearance that may challenge society’s standard views of beauty.




    Read more:
    Fake models for fast fashion? What AI clones mean for our jobs — and our identities


    Savvy consumers are well-attuned to and perceptive of what they view in both traditional and online media, often questioning whether a brand’s DEI efforts are meaningful or purely profit-driven. They ask, for example, whether brands are simply capitalizing on current societal trends and critique companies they feel do not go far enough in promoting real inclusivity.

    The brands that do invest in what appear to be sincere and authentic strives toward diversity and inclusivity see returns, outperforming their market competitors while courting new consumers. Those who divest from DEI efforts, or act uncritically, risk losing their market share.

    What next?

    What can fashion and beauty brands do in response? For one, they can invest in sustained and consistent efforts to showcase diversity and inclusion. They can recruit models who embody differences across a range of markers and characteristics, and they can spend less time editing and “perfecting” the figures and faces they select from.

    Yet, diversity and inclusion needs to move beyond representation and toward more varied product formulations, shade ranges and accessible beauty tools.

    While there may be folks who continue to be critical of DEI campaigns because they think brands bought into being “woke” (and now are paying a price for it), many more are eager for greater and better representation.

    Consumers remain critical of insincere or superficial efforts, asking for real engagement with matters of diversity and inclusion. This includes representations that break the mould and push the boundaries surrounding who is (and isn’t) considered beautiful.

    This also means that if we want to know about why diversity and inclusion “fails,” we can’t just focus on those who are “anti-woke” nor should we focus solely on Trump’s politics.

    To safeguard against retrenchment, we need to understand why diversity and inclusion campaigns cease to resonate with those consumers who support DEI. Without their support, inclusion and diversity efforts lose legitimacy making them more susceptible to reversal.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Lessons from the fashion industry: Why some DEI efforts fail to resonate with consumers – https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-fashion-industry-why-some-dei-efforts-fail-to-resonate-with-consumers-255091

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mark Carney wants to make Canada an energy superpower — but what will be sacrificed for that goal?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Leah Levac, Associate Professor of Community Engagement and Political Science, University of Guelph

    Canada’s recent federal election was regularly dubbed one of the most consequential of the last 50 years. Economic and sovereignty threats from United States President Donald Trump were key issues in the campaign. In response, pledges about energy infrastructure and resource development played an important role in party platforms.

    We have been studying impact assessments, the uneven consequences of resource development and sustainable energy transitions for over 15 years. We’re concerned about what and who may be overlooked as the government moves to become “an energy superpower,” in part by getting projects “done faster and better.”

    We’re also interested in how the newly elected Liberal government can support more just energy transitions — that is, moving toward low carbon energy and economies that prioritize equity for workers and communities.




    Read more:
    How to ensure Alberta’s oil and gas workers have jobs during the energy transition


    Challenges with Liberal promises

    The Liberal Party platform includes renewed attention to an east-west energy corridor. It also promises to speed up and streamline the review of major resource projects and “get big projects built quickly” by “shifting the focus of project review from ‘why’ to ‘how.’”

    The platform also promises more support for Indigenous participation in major projects and commits to using Gender-Based Analysis Plus — or GBA Plus — in policies and programs. GBA Plus is a method for assessing how diverse groups of people experience policies, programs and initiatives.

    Through our research, we have advocated strongly for applying GBA Plus in the resource sector, including by centring community knowledge in impact assessments and proposing strategies for improving how Indigenous women’s experiences and knowledge are considered in impact assessments.

    Over the last year, we also produced — along with our colleague Deborah Stienstra — two major research reports for the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada. Both were on the application of GBA Plus in regional assessments for offshore wind in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

    Regional assessments are a planning tool used before specific projects are proposed. They help identify important issues to consider if specific project assessments — for instance, for critical mineral mines, offshore wind projects or other resource developments — are conducted. If done well, regional assessments can help with more equitable and efficient project planning and development in the long run.

    What do the findings from our work in this area suggest in terms of how the Liberal government should proceed with its energy vision?

    Duty to consult

    The 2019 Impact Assessment Act requires meaningful execution of the duty to consult with Indigenous people affected by a major economic development.

    The Liberal Party made important promises to advance Indigenous participation in major projects and to double capacity support so more Indigenous communities can take an active role in project decisions at various stages.

    But what the Liberal platform overlooks is Indigenous Peoples’ right to resist and refuse developments in their territories, or how specifically to ensure that Indigenous women and gender-diverse people are meaningfully engaged.

    Moving forward, the Liberals must meet their constitutional duty to consult with Indigenous Peoples, while being guided by the United Nations’ principle of free, prior and informed consent per legislation that confirms Canada’s commitment to the UN’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

    GBA Plus

    During the campaign, the Liberal Party reiterated its support for GBA Plus by listing it as one of six key themes in its Make Canada Strong vision.

    The Liberals seemingly recognize that GBA Plus is an important tool for advancing equity for women, gender-diverse people, people with disabilities and racialized people by:

    “Identifying direct and indirect benefits of programs (e.g. job opportunities, access to programs and services) … and considering how these benefits will be distributed across diverse groups.”

    The Liberal platform does not explicitly raise GBA Plus in relation to becoming an “energy superpower.” But GBA Plus has been gaining attention in the resource sector — particularly in relation to the development of specific projects — since the requirement to consider “the intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors” was included in the 2019 Impact Assessment Act.

    GBA Plus needs to be applied in project-specific assessments (for specific developments, such as mines and hydroelectric dams) and in planning assessments (like regional assessments).

    In our work on the regional assessments for offshore wind in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, we demonstrate the value of applying GBA Plus throughout all impact assessment processes.

    Doing so helps strengthen community engagement efforts, identify potential effects early, determine the data sources required for monitoring those effects, fill data gaps and highlight barriers that prevent diverse groups of people from benefiting from energy projects.

    For example, without adequate child-care options, many women cannot access the high-paying jobs that sometimes accompany resource projects. The Liberal government’s support for GBA Plus must therefore be explicitly incorporated into its energy proposals.

    What and who is lost with fast tracking

    A just energy transition is one concerned not only with planetary survival, but also with the effects of the transition on people who will be most affected.

    The Liberal party’s vision for becoming an energy superpower includes “conventional energy resources” (like oil) as well as clean and renewable energy (like solar and hydro) and critical minerals needed to support decarbonization and energy transitions.

    We disagree with the Liberal Party’s commitment to “shifting the focus of project review from ‘why’ to ‘how.’”

    We need to ask how — and even whether — an energy project contributes to a just transition. Answering questions about whether projects will meet climate commitments and help advance equity for workers and communities is critical. These questions are best asked early, during planning phases and as part of regional assessments, before specific projects are proposed.

    The duty to consult, GBA Plus and just energy transitions are interconnected and necessary commitments for sustainable energy production.

    Together, they can contribute to a relationship with Indigenous Peoples that recognizes their sovereignty and to a more equitable and sustainable future. But these commitments cannot be meaningfully realized when fast-tracking development, because they require time and relationship-building.

    Prioritizing fast-tracking — thereby falling short on these priorities and legal commitments — will backfire. It will lead to delays rather than more efficient processes, and will worsen existing inequities.

    Leah Levac receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She does research on behalf of the Canadian Research Institute for the Advancement of Women, which receives funding from the the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada, other federal departments (e.g., WAGE) and non-government organizations for work related to advancing GBA Plus practice in impact assessments and elsewhere.

    Jane Stinson is affiliated with the Canadian Research Institute for the Advancement of Women, which receives funding from the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada, other federal departments (eg. WAGE) and non-government organizations for work related to advancing GBA Plus practice in impact assessments and elsewhere.

    Leah M. Fusco receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She does research on behalf of the Canadian Research Institute for the Advancement of Women, which receives funding from the the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada, other federal departments (e.g., WAGE), and non-government organizations for work related to advancing GBA Plus practice in impact assessments and elsewhere.

    ref. Mark Carney wants to make Canada an energy superpower — but what will be sacrificed for that goal? – https://theconversation.com/mark-carney-wants-to-make-canada-an-energy-superpower-but-what-will-be-sacrificed-for-that-goal-255079

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A pope of the Americas: What Francis meant to 2 continents

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Neomi De Anda, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Dayton

    A portrait of Pope Francis is projected onto a water fountain in Lima, Peru, on April 21, 2025. AP Photo/Martin Mejia

    Most stories about Pope Francis mention that he made history as the first pontiff from Latin America. In fact, Francis was the first pope in centuries to be born outside Europe. But what impact did that actually have on the Catholic Church? The Conversation U.S. asked Neomi De Anda, a theologian at the University of Dayton, to explain the significance of having a pope from the Southern Hemisphere.

    Where do you see the influence of Pope Francis’ Latin American background?

    In reality, Francis is not only the first Latin American pope; he’s the first American pope. Francis is Argentine, the child and grandchild of Italian immigrants, and the first to be born in “América.” Though geography divides it into two continents, North and South, it is one land – one many Indigenous communities call “Turtle Island” or “Abya Yala.”

    In the pope’s 2024 video message to the Academy of Catholic Hispanic Theologians of the United States, he called upon them “to be bridge-builders between the Americas” and to be a church that “welcomes, accompanies, and integrates” migrants. Speaking in Spanish, he invited the academy “to do theology with your head, your hearts, and your hands” and to integrate “the richness of both cultures, North and South, at the service of a dignified life.”

    Pope Francis arrives for a massive open-air Mass in a park just a few yards from the U.S. border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Feb. 17, 2016.
    AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills

    This message emphasizes Francis’ view of “synodality” – meaning a church that walks together – and his understanding of the connection among all people in the Americas and the Caribbean. It also shows a recurring theme of his papacy: the connections between pastoral care and theology.

    The greeting also highlights his desire for all to have a life of well-being, or “buen vivir,” through God’s love. As Jesus says in the Gospel of John, “I came so that they may have life and have it more abundantly.” This is also a key theme in a 2007 document produced after a meeting of Latin American bishops, known as Aparecida. Francis, then a cardinal, was a primary drafter.

    Aparecida points out Latin America’s abundance of aquifers and forest lands, which are “humanity’s lungs.” It laments economic factors leading to environmental destruction and climate change – themes that would prove important to Francis’ papacy. The document stresses God’s care for people whose lands are being pillaged and who are forced to migrate. It claims “nothing and no one” can take away the strength, joy and peace God gives to the world’s most vulnerable.

    Francis repeatedly acknowledged the Catholic Church’s role in crimes against Indigenous people, and he apologized. How did ideas about colonialism shape his papacy?

    Francis spent much time and attention learning more about the experiences of Native communities: from his visit to Chiapas, Mexico, in 2016; to the Amazon Synod, a meeting of Catholic bishops from the Pan-Amazon Region, Indigenous leaders from this region, theologians and other subject matter experts in 2019; to his tour across Canada in 2022.

    After the synod, Francis released a letter titled Querida Amazonia, which includes a call for Catholic leaders to learn more about the lives of Native peoples from across the nine countries of the Amazon.

    During the papal Mass Francis celebrated in Chiapas, Mexico, in 2016, you can see the deep intermixing of local cultures and customs with the liturgy. For example, women spread incense across the altar using clay vessels, alongside deacons using a thurible, the metal burner typically used in services. Animal images at the front of the platform represented the integration of all of creation.

    Pope Francis delivers his message during Mass in San Cristobal de las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico, on Feb. 15, 2016.
    AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia

    Throughout his trip to Canada in 2022 – whose purpose, in part, was to apologize for the Catholic Church’s role in the Indigenous boarding school system – Francis presented a disposition of listening and care. He spent more time meeting with people and hearing about their experiences than giving prepared speeches on the perspective of the church.

    For First Nations peoples, the pope’s visit was an opportunity for reconciliation – but for some, it also reopened old wounds. One of their requests was that the church reject the Doctrine of Discovery: ideas about conversion to Christianity that colonial powers used to justify abuses.

    Talking to reporters on the plane returning to Rome, Francis named what had been done to Indigenous children in boarding schools as “genocide.” The following year, the Vatican released a repudiation of the Doctrine of Discovery and documents associated with those ideas.

    Are there other ways that the pope did – or didn’t – make the church feel more inclusive?

    Francis’ papacy did less to change teachings on another topic shaped by colonialism: gender, sexuality and women. The Catholic Church maintains that there are two genders – male and female – which complement each other, a binary system that replaced more flexible ways of thinking about gender in some cultures.

    Members of a delegation of Indigenous peoples in Quebec await a meeting with Pope Francis on July 29, 2022.
    Ciro Fusco/Pool ANSA via AP

    The question of whether to ordain women as deacons arose from the Amazon Synod and continued at the church’s global Synod on Synodality, but without resolution.

    An emphasis on women’s role as child-bearers is embedded in the theological understanding of Mary as mother of Christ and the mother of the church. Whether intentionally or not, however, I would argue Francis laid groundwork for teaching about women and gender to expand.

    Appointments of women to high Vatican positions point to small shifts in practice. The presence of trans people among the last people who paid respects to Francis at his funeral marks a sign of possibilities that hopefully will continue.

    Although of “the church” might make us think of clergy, all who are baptized are the church. Around the world, Catholic communities have developed in many ways, with multiple forms of leadership – especially women lay leaders. The Vatican needs to continue to affirm that reality.

    The Catholic Church understands diversity as a gift of the Holy Spirit. My hope is for someone to continue in Francis’ vein of appreciating that pluralism.

    Neomi De Anda consults for the Louisville Institute, funded by Lily Endowment Inc. She receives funding from the Wabash Center for Teaching and Learning in Religion and Theology. She is a past president of the Academy of Catholic Hispanic Theologians of the United States and is affiliated with the Marianist Social Justice Collaborative.

    ref. A pope of the Americas: What Francis meant to 2 continents – https://theconversation.com/a-pope-of-the-americas-what-francis-meant-to-2-continents-255093

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pope Francis encouraged Christian-Muslim dialogue and helped break down stereotypes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Craig Considine, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Rice University

    Tributes being paid to Pope Francis at the Sacred Heart Cathedral Church in Lahore, Pakistan, on April 22, 2025. AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary

    Pope Francis’ pontificate marked a distinct shift in the Catholic Church’s engagement with the Muslim world. While his predecessors fostered dialogue and tolerance, Francis sought more active engagement with Muslims, particularly in the Middle East.

    Francis framed his efforts around the “culture of encounter,” which he explained in a 2016 morning meditation. Drawing inspiration from the Gospel of Luke, Chapter 7, he noted that this approach was about “active engagement” rather than passive observation. He urged individuals to embody Jesus by “not just seeing, but looking; not just hearing, but listening; not just passing people by, but stopping with them.”

    In my 2025 book “Beyond Dialogue – Building Bonds Between Christians and Muslims,” I stress the importance of moving beyond mere tolerance to collaboration as a way to engage with religious diversity − something that Francis demonstrated in his interfaith dialogue efforts with Muslim countries.

    Francis in Iraq after IS destruction

    In 2021, Francis visited regions in Iraq once held by the Islamic State, or IS. This was the first papal visit to the country. He held masses in Irbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and he addressed a gathering in the courtyard of the Al-Tahera church, the hub of the Syriac Catholic population in Mosul. The historic 18th-century church was partially destroyed by IS during its occupation of the city from 2014 to 2017. An estimated 5,000 Christians were killed and some 125,000 displaced in Iraq during that time.

    Iraqis put up a poster with Pope Francis and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leader of Iraqi Shiite Muslims, in Najaf, Iraq, on March 4, 2021.
    AP Photo/Anmar Khalil

    At Church Square in Mosul, where there are four churches, Francis prayed for the victims of the conflict and called for harmonious coexistence between Christians and Muslims. He also invited displaced Christians to return to their homes and praised the young Iraqi volunteers – both Christians and Muslims – working side by side to rebuild the churches and mosques destroyed by IS.

    In addition, he convened an interreligious gathering in Ur, the birthplace of Abraham, a prophet revered by Jews, Christians and Muslims.

    His actions not only brought together Christians and Muslims but also helped break down stereotypes.

    The year of tolerance

    In 2019 he visited the United Arab Emirates, marking the first papal visit to the Arabian Peninsula, the birthplace of Islam. The visit coincided with the Emirati government proclaiming 2019 the Year of Tolerance, promoting coexistence, diversity and respect.

    During his visit in Abu Dhabi in 2019, Francis celebrated a historic Catholic Mass in Zayed Sports City, drawing 180,000 attendees from over 100 countries, for which the UAE government declared a special holiday.

    This unprecedented event challenged negative Western stereotypes about the Arabian Peninsula’s religious intolerance. The UAE Constitution, for example, guarantees religious freedom to all people, albeit with restrictions on proselytization among non-Islamic communities. It also offered a counternarrative of unity between Christians and Muslims in a region often viewed through a lens of religious strife and war.

    Francis’ visit to the UAE also culminated in some crucial interfaith initiatives. In Abu Dhabi, Francis and the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University, Ahmed El-Tayeb, cosigned the document on Human Fraternity for World Peace and Living Together. The document stresses the need to work together to promote a “culture of reciprocal respect.” While the Emirati president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, did not directly sign the document, he supported the interfaith initiatives that followed Francis’ trip.

    This document led to the setting up of the Higher Committee of Human Fraternity, a collaborative project of a diverse groups of academic, cultural and religious leaders and entities from around the world. The committee created the Human Fraternity Education and Leadership for Peace program, a global youth movement. It also worked with the United Nations General Assembly to designate Feb. 4 as the International Day of Human Fraternity.

    The Higher Committee of Human Fraternity also guided the construction of the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, a shared space for a church, mosque and synagogue that opened in 2023.

    I had the opportunity to attend the opening ceremony of the Abrahamic Family House in 2023. It was a memorable experience. A Christian girl, a Muslim boy and Jewish boy each brought a cube representing each house of worship to the center platform of the forum and placed them side by side on the ground. The simple act mirrored the architectural design of the Abrahamic Family House by bringing the abstract concept of interfaith harmony to life in a concrete and relatable way. The Emirati youth provided a glimpse into what a tolerant future could look like.

    History of Catholic-Muslim relations

    The closest historical comparison to the Document on Human Fraternity is the Nostra Aetate, a declaration from the Second Vatican Council of 1965, when major reforms were initiated in the Catholic Church.

    Nostra Aetate marked a turning point in the Catholic Church’s relations with Islam and all non-Christian traditions. After a history of conflict, limited positive engagement and mutual suspicion, it emphasized harmony, dialogue and respect with Islam.

    However, the Document on Human Fraternity went further. For starters, it was a joint declaration with prominent Muslim leaders, signifying a deeper commitment to Christian-Muslim partnership, whereas Nostra Aetate was an internal Catholic document. The document called for grassroot activities, pointing to a more action-oriented approach to Christian and Muslim relations. Given that it was signed by the pope, it held influence within the Vatican leadership and among liberal cardinals. Its core principles are being integrated into pastoral initiatives and interreligious dialogue at the national and international levels.

    Francis’ approach to Christian-Muslim dialogue differed notably from his predecessors. While Pope John Paul II focused on intellectual exchange and theological dialogue, Francis emphasized that they were insufficient on their own. In turn, he prioritized direct action and personal engagement with others as a means to a deeper understanding of the other.

    Pope Benedict XVI, despite his commitment to dialogue, faced challenges due to remarks that outraged Muslims worldwide. During his Regensburg address in 2006, he mentioned a medieval dialogue attributed to Manuel II Palaiologus, the Byzantine emperor who reigned from 1391 to 1425, a period of growing power of the Ottoman Empire. Manuel II had criticized the concept of jihad in Islam and referred to Muhammad, the prophet of Islam, as “evil” and “inhuman.” While Benedict repeatedly emphasized that he was quoting Manuel II’s views on the relationship between faith and reason and not personally endorsing the emperor’s assessment of Islam, the pope’s comments were perceived as disrespectful toward the Islamic faith and its prophet.

    Upon Francis’ death, the president of the UAE – Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan – described him as “a symbol of human fraternity, cultural coexistence and interfaith dialogue,” adding that he inspired “future generations in upholding the values of tolerance and mutual understanding.”

    Francis’ gestures of solidarity, personal relationships and frequent visits to Muslim countries, I believe, laid a tangible foundation to move beyond dialogue and toward human fraternity.

    Craig Considine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Pope Francis encouraged Christian-Muslim dialogue and helped break down stereotypes – https://theconversation.com/pope-francis-encouraged-christian-muslim-dialogue-and-helped-break-down-stereotypes-255193

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: National security advisers manage decision-making as advocates or honest brokers

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory F. Treverton, Professor of Practice in International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    Mike Waltz speaks with reporters in the press room at the White House on Feb. 20, 2025. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

    The removal of Mike Waltz as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser – formally the assistant to the president for national security affairs – raises the question of just what that position entails and also what it means that Marco Rubio will now act as secretary of state and national security adviser.

    The National Security Act of 1947 created the National Security Council to advise the president on matters of national security. It’s also tasked with integrating domestic, foreign and military policies.

    But the national security adviser position is neither enshrined in law nor accountable to Congress.

    I’m an economist and international relations scholar who has worked with three national security advisers − Zbigniew Brzezinski, Samuel “Sandy” Berger and Susan Rice.

    I’ve seen the job up close. The core of the national security adviser’s role is managing the national security decision-making process, as decisions on issues from Ukraine to Gaza to nuclear proliferation are made. It’s a coordinating role.

    Honest broker

    National security advisers set the timing and flow of policy analysis and recommendations to the National Security Council committees − first, the principals committee, which brings together the Cabinet secretaries with national security responsibilities from the State Department, Department of Defense, the CIA and others.

    While the principals committee typically rarely meets and virtually never with the president in the chair, not so the deputies committee. That committee brings together the Nos. 2 and 3 in the same departments.

    In my most recent stint in Washington as chair of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, the deputies committee met almost every day, sometimes more than once. Its formal role is to tee up issues for decision by the principals and the president.

    National security advisers have the advantage of proximity to the president, with an office footsteps from the Oval, as it is known in Washington lingo. They also manage a relatively lean staff.

    In my time on the National Security Council staff in the Carter administration, it was perhaps 150 all told, including the watch officers in the White House Situation Room. In the Biden administration it was on the order of 350 staff.

    For us National Security Council staffers, if we disagreed with our counterparts at the State Department or the Defense Department, we could let the principals decide. We knew that we could get to Brzezinski faster, for example, than they could get to their Cabinet secretaries.

    National security adviser Susan Rice walks with Fang Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, in Beijing, in September 2014.
    AP Photo/Wang Zhao

    In Washington, proximity is opportunity. And, not surprisingly, national security advisers since McGeorge Bundy in the John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson administrations have become central figures in the foreign policy arena. The have had to manage the balance between seeking to influence the president and remaining an honest broker.

    As Berger put it, “You have to be perceived by your colleagues as an honest representative of their viewpoint, or the system breaks down.”

    Managing the tension

    National security advisers have managed the tension in their roles in different ways. And two models of those roles have emerged.

    Henry Kissinger, who served Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, was a powerful strategist driving presidential policy, often bypassing traditional channels. He, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio will do, served a dual role from 1973 to 1975 as national security adviser and secretary of state. Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser who served George W. Bush, also later became secretary of state.

    Brent Scowcroft, who served both Ford and President George H. W. Bush, is the exemplar of the other model − an “honest broker” ensuring a fair, collegial policy process. He was the consummate insider: low-key, meticulous about process and influencing through quiet proximity. The Bush administration he served was also, as described by a friend, as collegial as the men’s locker room of an upscale country club. Still, while I never had the chance to work with him, he is my standard for the role of national security adviser.

    Waltz served too briefly to evaluate his record. It’s ironic that what seems to have done him in was the Signalgate scandal, in which Waltz added a journalist to a Signal group chat in which government officials discussed details about a planned U.S. military strike in Yemen.

    That was an example of Waltz’s coordinating role, bringing most of the relevant policy officials together to discuss an important issue. The purpose was right, but the means was extremely unwise.

    Henry Kissinger shakes hands with Chinese Premier Chou En-lai in Peking, China, in July 1971.
    AP Photo/White House

    Learning from the past

    Historically, the worst crisis of the National Security Council system ensued when it sought to conduct operations, not just organize them. That was the case in the Iran-Contra affair of the Reagan administration.

    Robert McFarlane took over as national security adviser in October 1983. A former Marine officer and deputy national security adviser, he was conscientious to a fault: In one meeting while he was consulting during the transition from President George H. W. Bush to President Bill Clinton, we asked him about work hours. He replied: “They’re not bad. I’m out of here by eight most nights, earlier on Sunday.”

    He was done in by Iran-Contra, a clandestine effort run by the National Security Council to trade arms to Iran − then under a U.S. arms embargo − in hopes of freeing American hostages, with proceeds diverted to fund the Nicaraguan Contras, despite a congressional ban on funding them. He pleaded guilty in 1988 to withholding information from Congress.

    It’s a telling lesson for Rubio and other Waltz successors as the national security adviser of the dangers of moving from honest broker and quiet advocate to operator − especially if the operation is contrary to public U.S. policy and perhaps against the law.

    This story is part of a series of profiles of Cabinet and high-level administration positions.

    Gregory F. Treverton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. National security advisers manage decision-making as advocates or honest brokers – https://theconversation.com/national-security-advisers-manage-decision-making-as-advocates-or-honest-brokers-255760

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Worsening allergies aren’t your imagination − windy days create the perfect pollen storm

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christine Cairns Fortuin, Assistant Professor of Forestry, Mississippi State University

    Windy days can mean more pollen and more sneezing. mladenbalinovac/E+ via Getty Images

    Evolution has fostered many reproductive strategies across the spectrum of life. From dandelions to giraffes, nature finds a way.

    One of those ways creates quite a bit of suffering for humans: pollen, the infamous male gametophyte of the plant kingdom.

    In the Southeastern U.S., where I live, you know it’s spring when your car has turned yellow and pollen blankets your patio furniture and anything else left outside. Suddenly there are long lines at every car wash in town.

    On heavy pollen days, cars can end up covered in yellow grains.
    Scott Akerman/Flickr, CC BY

    Even people who aren’t allergic to pollen – clearly an advantage for a pollination ecologist like me – can experience sneezing and watery eyes during the release of tree pollen each spring. Enough particulate matter in the air will irritate just about anyone, even if your immune system does not launch an all-out attack.

    So, why is there so much pollen? And why does it seem to be getting worse?

    2 ways trees spread their pollen

    Trees don’t have an easy time in the reproductive game. As a tree, you have two options to disperse your pollen.

    Option 1: Employ an agent, such as a butterfly or bee, that can carry your pollen to another plant of the same species.

    The downside of this option is that you must invest in a showy flower display and a sweet scent to advertise yourself, and sugary nectar to pay your agent for its services.

    A bee enjoys pollen from a cherry blossom. Pollen is a primary source of protein for bees.
    Ivan Radic/Flickr, CC BY

    Option 2, the budget option, is much less precise: Get a free ride on the wind.

    Wind was the original pollinator, evolving long before animal-mediated pollination. Wind doesn’t require a showy flower nor a nectar reward. What it does require for pollination to succeed is ample amounts of lightweight, small-diameter pollen.

    Why wind-blown pollen makes allergies worse

    Wind is not an efficient pollinator, however. The probability of one pollen grain landing in the right location – the stigma or ovule of another plant of the same species – is infinitesimally small.

    Therefore, wind-pollinated trees must compensate for this inefficiency by producing copious amounts of pollen, and it must be light enough to be carried.

    For allergy sufferers, that can mean air filled with microscopic pollen grains that can get into your eyes, throat and lungs, sneak in through window screens and convince your immune system that you’ve inhaled a dangerous intruder.

    When wind blows the tiny pollen grains of live oaks, allergy sufferers feel it.
    Charles Willgren/Flickr, CC BY

    Plants relying on animal-mediated pollination, by contrast, can produce heavier and stickier pollen to adhere to the body of an insect. So don’t blame the bees for your allergies – it’s really the wind.

    Climate change has a role here, too

    Plants initiate pollen release based on a few factors, including temperature and light cues. Many of our temperate tree species respond to cues that signal the beginning of spring, including warmer temperatures.

    Studies have found that pollen seasons have intensified in the past three decades as the climate has warmed. One study that examined 60 location across North America found pollen seasons expanded by an average of 20 days from 1990 to 2018 and pollen concentrations increased by 21%.

    That’s not all. Increasing carbon dioxide levels may also be driving increases in the quantity of tree pollen produced.

    Why the Southeast gets socked

    What could make this pollen boost even worse?

    For the Southeastern U.S. in particular, strong windstorms are becoming more common and more intense − and not just hurricanes.

    Anyone who has lived in the Southeast for the past couple of decades has likely noticed this. The region has more tornado warnings, more severe thunderstorms, more power outages. This is especially true in the mid-South, from Mississippi to Alabama.

    Severity of wind and storm events mapped from NOAA data, 2012-2019, shows high activity over Mississippi and Alabama. Red areas have the most severe events.
    Christine Cairns Fortuin

    Since wind is the vector of airborne pollen, windier conditions can also make allergies worse. Pollen remains airborne for longer on windy days, and it travels farther.

    To make matters worse, increasing storm activity may be doing more than just transporting pollen. Storms can also break apart pollen grains, creating smaller particles that can penetrate deeper into the lungs.

    Many allergy sufferers may notice worsening allergies during storms.

    The peak of spring wind and storm season tends to correspond to the timing of the release of tree pollen that blankets our world in yellow. The effects of climate change, including longer pollen seasons and more pollen released, and corresponding shifts in windy days and storm severity are helping to create the perfect pollen storm.

    Christine Cairns Fortuin receives funding from U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station.

    ref. Worsening allergies aren’t your imagination − windy days create the perfect pollen storm – https://theconversation.com/worsening-allergies-arent-your-imagination-windy-days-create-the-perfect-pollen-storm-254645

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Philly’s forgotten history as a hub of anarchism with a thriving radical Yiddish press

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Geoffrey Baym, Professor of Media Studies and Production, Temple University

    The first edition of Bread and Freedom came out on Nov. 11, 1906. From the collection of the National Library of Israel, courtesy of Broyt un Frayheyt (Bread and Freedom)

    On a late summer day in 1906, a small group of newly arrived Jewish immigrants in Philadelphia took a streetcar across town to Fairmount Park. Several miles from the cramped row houses and oppressive sweatshops of the immigrant quarter of South Philly, the neighborhood now known as Queen Village, they enjoyed a sunny picnic.

    They weren’t there to make small talk, though.

    Instead, they wanted to write “revolutionary articles” that would spark the “struggle against all that degrades and oppresses humanity,” as one of the leaders of the group, Joseph Cohen, later wrote in his 1945 memoir.

    More specifically, the picnicgoers wanted to start a newspaper. It would be titled Broyt un Frayheyt – Yiddish for Bread and Freedom – the anarchist reminder that to live the good life, one needs both.

    I’m a professor of media and politics at Temple University in Philadelphia. For the past year I’ve been tracking the life and times of my great-grandfather Max, a radical Yiddish journalist in the early years of the 20th century.

    To my surprise, I found he had lived here in Philadelphia, and his story is part of a largely forgotten moment in U.S. history: when Philly was an epicenter of the national anarchist movement, heartily supported by the city’s burgeoning Jewish immigrant community.

    Beyond the Russian pale

    By 1906, thousands of people like Max had made their way to Philadelphia from the Russian “pale” – the only part of the Russian Empire where they could legally reside. They fled economic isolation and state-sanctioned persecution in search of a more stable life.

    South Philly was better than where they had come from, but immigrant life then, as now, was by no means easy. They had escaped a legal regime of oppression and the perpetual threat of antisemitic mob violence. But in turn they found a world of dark alleys and dead ends. Their labor was exploited, their living conditions meager.

    For some, the American promise of freedom and prosperity seemed to ring hollow.

    They did, however, find one freedom they had not experienced before. They were able to speak, write and publish their ideas no matter how outlandish or against the grain.

    And they could do so in Yiddish, the vernacular of daily life but a language of exile – one that in the old world had often been outlawed in print.

    The Yiddish press in the United States was experiencing extraordinary growth at the time. In New York, Philadelphia and other cities, newspapers quickly emerged – and often disappeared – month over month.

    Jewish anarchists in America

    Max moved to Philadelphia in 1906 to work with another immigrant named Joseph Cohen. Cohen had arrived in Philadelphia three years earlier. He earned a scant living making cigars, but his real work was advocating anarchism.

    At the dawn of the 20th century, anarchism was not the nihilistic chaos the term may bring to mind today. It was a heartfelt dream of a free and egalitarian society.

    The anarchists believed that man-made hierarchies – political, economic and religious – were illegitimate and limited the full expression of humanity. They rejected the authority of the state. That particularly appealed to many Jewish immigrants, for whom laws in the old country had long served as vehicles of oppression.

    Cohen had studied this philosophy of local autonomy and communal life with the Philadelphia activist Voltairine de Cleyre.

    History may remember Emma Goldman, a Lithuanian-born New Yorker and perhaps the leading voice of American anarchism from that era. But de Cleyre was the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s anarchist scene.

    Goldman once described de Cleyre as a “poet-rebel,” a “liberty-loving artist” and “the greatest woman anarchist of America.”

    Voltairine de Cleyre in Philadelphia circa 1901.
    Wikimedia Commons

    A tireless critic of the inequities of the industrial age, de Cleyre had taught herself Yiddish to better serve as “the apostle of anarchism” in the Jewish ghetto.

    While de Cleyre could often be found speaking in front of city hall, Max, Cohen and their colleagues were more likely to gather at the corner of Fifth and South streets, the hub of Philadelphia’s Yiddish press and its culture of rambunctious street debate.

    By 1906, Cohen had co-founded the anarchist Radical Library in the upstairs rooms at 229 Pine St. This provided the Philadelphia anarchists a meeting space and reading room.

    But “the Jewish newspaper men, the radicals and the tireless talkers,” as the Philadelphia historian Harry Boonin wrote, still congregated in the ramshackle cafes lining the 600 block of South Fifth, where they would argue over anarchism and atheism deep into the night.

    Competition with NYC comrades

    Cohen’s goal was to publish a nationally influential anarchist paper that would give voice to the “comrades from Philadelphia.”

    That meant direct competition with the New York Yiddish press and the influential weekly newspaper Freie Arbeiter Stimme, or The Free Voice of Labor. Edited by Saul Yanovksy on Manhattan’s Lower East Side, FAS was the center of the Jewish anarchist movement and of the Yiddish intelligentsia more broadly.

    “To be able to say ‘I have written for Yanovsky,’” wrote the sociologist Robert Park in 1922, “is a literary passport for a Yiddish writer.”

    Freie Arbeiter Stimme (The Free Voice of Labor) was the intellectual center of the Jewish anarchist movement at the turn of the 20th century.
    From the collection of the National Library of Israel, courtesy of Freie Arbeiter Stimme (The Free Voice of Labor)

    Although the FAS masthead said the paper was located in New York and Philadelphia, Yanovksy controlled the operation from New York, much to Cohen’s dismay.

    The Philadelphia anarchists were also routinely disappointed in Yanovsky’s politics. He was too moderate for their tastes. Yanovsky favored organizing labor and voting in elections, while the Bread and Freedom group, according to Cohen, wanted to cultivate “the militancy and fighting spirit which our young comrades brought with them from cold Russia.” They advocated for more aggressive measures to counter “the submissive indifference of the bourgeoisie and the slavish patience of the workers.”

    Cohen had partnered with Yanovsky earlier in 1906 to publish a daily anarchist newspaper. He maintained a small office in the back of Finkler’s cigar store at Fifth and Bainbridge streets. But the paper was printed in New York and delivered back to Philadelphia each morning by courier train.

    Cohen wrote in his memoir that he suspected Yanovsky intentionally sabotaged the effort by insisting that he personally write the daily editorial, but then turning in his copy too late for the paper to make the train. After two months the partnership, and the paper, fell apart.

    For Cohen, the lesson was that to be the genuine voice of the anarchist movement, he had to print the paper locally in Philadelphia.

    A digest of anarchist argument

    Editions of the Bread and Freedom anarchist weekly list the Radical Library at 229 Pine St. as its headquarters.
    From the collection of the National Library of Israel, courtesy of Bread and Freedom

    Bread and Freedom published its first issue on Nov. 11, 1906. The date was symbolic. It was the anniversary of the execution of the “Chicago martyrs” – the four men wrongly sentenced to death for the 1886 bombing at a labor rally at Chicago’s Haymarket Square. The Haymarket affair galvanized the anarchist movement among immigrants, even as it accelerated the wider fear of foreign-born radicalism.

    Over the next three months, the newspaper offered a weekly digest of anarchist arguments. It translated into Yiddish Voltairine de Cleyre’s critique of capitalism and what she called its “moral bankruptcy” – its hunger for wealth, power and material possessions. It attacked what de Cleyre called the “dominant idea” of the times – “the shameless, merciless” exploitation of the worker, “only to produce heaps and heaps of things – things ugly, things harmful, things useless, and at the best largely unnecessary.”

    In the strongest of terms – “bombastic,” in the words of one local historian – the paper echoed de Cleyre’s call for the “restless, active, rebel souls” of immigrant Philadelphia to rise up to oppose the “great and lamentable error” of industrial capitalism.

    Almost as soon as it began, however, Bread and Freedom ran out of money. Its rhetoric was exciting but ineffective. The paper offered no real solutions beyond an impossible demand to dismantle the capitalist state.

    Although two members of the group were briefly detained by the police in Baltimore for selling a radical newspaper, their fiery propaganda lit no revolutionary spark.

    Instead, it disappeared quietly, folding in January 1907.

    Shifting tactics

    Even then, a different kind of immigrant was arriving in the U.S. from Russia. Their radical politics were coupled with organizational acumen.

    Many of the older anarchists would join forces with these newcomers, and the effort morphed into something more pragmatic. They helped build the foundations of the 20th-century labor movement, which successfully fought for once-radical ideals such as the eight-hour workday and paid sick leave.

    Cohen moved to New York and took over as editor of FAS in 1923. That was a tense period for the Jewish left, following the Russian revolution of 1917 and the Communist rise to power. In response, the U.S. government suppressed domestic radicalism, arresting and at times deporting foreign-born leftists, and anarchism fell out of favor.

    A few years earlier, though, the streets of South Philly had been home to a vibrant space of free speech and boundless political imagination. It would not last long, but it is a moment I believe is worth remembering.

    Geoffrey Baym does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Philly’s forgotten history as a hub of anarchism with a thriving radical Yiddish press – https://theconversation.com/phillys-forgotten-history-as-a-hub-of-anarchism-with-a-thriving-radical-yiddish-press-252869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Teachers and librarians are among those least likely to die by suicide − public health researchers offer insights on what this means for other professions

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jordan Batchelor, Research Analyst at the Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety, Arizona State University

    One reason teachers have a low suicide rate may be that they find meaning in their jobs. Digital Vision/Getty Images

    Where you work affects your risk of dying by suicide. For example, loggers, musicians and workers in the oil and gas industries have much higher rates of suicide than the rest of the population.

    But on the flip side, some professions have very low rates of suicide. One of them is education. National and state data shows that educators in the U.S., including teachers, professors and librarians, are among the least likely to die by suicide.

    We’re a team of researchers at the Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety at Arizona State University. We manage Arizona’s Violent Death Reporting System, part of a surveillance system sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with counterparts in all 50 U.S. states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. We collect data on violent deaths, including suicide, thanks to agreements with local medical examiners and law enforcement.

    When public health researchers like us look at suicide data, we often focus on high-risk populations to learn where intervention and prevention are most needed. But we can learn from low-risk populations such as educators too.

    Why some professions have higher suicide rates

    Over the past 25 years, the suicide rate in the U.S. has increased significantly.

    The age-adjusted rate in 2022 was 14.2 suicides per 100,000 people, up from 10.9 a little over two decades earlier, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Epidemiologists often adjust data for age to allow for a fairer comparison of incidence rates across populations with different age distributions.

    But not all populations are affected equally. For example, military veterans die by suicide at higher rates than civilians, as do men, older adults and American Indian and Alaska Natives, to name a few demographics. In 2022 the suicide rate for men, for instance, was 23 suicides per 100,000, versus 5.9 for women.

    The rate of suicide among the working-age population is also growing. Over the past two decades it has increased by 33%, reaching a rate of 32 suicides per 100,000 for men and eight for women in 2021. And workers in certain occupations are at higher risk of dying by suicide than others.

    The reasons why are complex and diverse. Workers in construction, an industry with some of the highest suicide rates, may face greater stigma getting help for mental health issues, while people in other fields such as law enforcement may be more exposed to traumatic experiences, which can harm their mental health.

    In short, some explanations are directly tied to one’s work, such as having low job security, little autonomy or agency, and an imbalance of work efforts and rewards. Other factors are more indirect, such as an occupation’s demographic makeup or the type of personality that chooses a profession. Together, factors like these help explain the rate of suicide across occupations.

    Teachers, professors and librarians

    Educators, on the other hand, have relatively little suicide risk.

    By educators, we mean workers classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as “educational instruction and library,” which includes teachers, tutors, professors, librarians and similar occupations.

    Nationally, about 11 in 100,000 male educators died by suicide in 2021, with the figure for women being about half that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By contrast, the rate for male workers in arts, design, entertainment, sports and media was 44.5 suicides per 100,000, and the rate for male workers in construction and extraction was 65.6.

    Data from our state of Arizona follows the same pattern. From 2016 through 2023, a total of 117 educators died by suicide, mostly primary and secondary school teachers. This works out to be an incidence rate of 7.3 suicides per 100,000 educators − one-third the rate for all Arizona workers and the lowest among all occupations in the state.

    Why educators have a low suicide rate

    So why are educators at such a low risk of suicide? After all, educational professions certainly present their own challenges. For example, many teachers experience high amounts of burnout, which can cause physical and mental health problems such as headaches, fatigue, anxiety and depression.

    A good place to begin is the profession’s demographic composition. A disproportionately high share of educators are women or are marriedtraits associated with lower suicide rates. Educators also tend to have high educational attainment, which may indirectly protect against suicide by increasing socioeconomic status and employability.

    Another factor is workplace environment. Workplaces that offer increased access to lethal means such as firearms and medications are associated with higher suicide rates. This helps explain why workers in law enforcement, medical professions and the military tend to show high rates. The comparatively low availability of lethal means in schools may help keep educators’ rates low.

    In addition, educators’ workplaces, typically schools and campuses, offer rich opportunities to form strong social relationships, which improve one’s overall health and help workers cope with job stress. The unique, meaningful bonds many educators form with their students, administrators and fellow educators may offer support that enhances their mental health.

    Finally, based on more contextual information in our Arizona database, we found that a lower proportion of educators who died by suicide had an alcohol or drug abuse problem. Alcohol or substance abuse problems can increase suicidal ideation and other work-related risk factors such as job insecurity and work-related injury. In short, educators may live a healthier lifestyle compared with some other workers.

    Improving worker health

    So, what can workers and employers in other professions learn from this, and how can we improve worker health?

    One lesson is to develop skills to cope with job stress. All professions are capable of producing stress, which can negatively affect a person’s mental and physical health. Identifying the root cause of job stress and applying coping skills, such as positive thinking, meditation and goal-setting, can have beneficial effects.

    Developing a social network at the workplace is also key. High-quality social relationships can improve health to a degree on par with quitting smoking. Social relationships provide tangible and intangible support and help establish one’s sense of purpose and identity. This applies outside the workplace, too. So promoting work-life balance is one way organizations can help their employees.

    Organizations can also strive to foster a positive workplace culture. One aspect of such a culture is establishing a sense of meaning or purpose in the work. For educators, this feature may help offset some of the profession’s challenges. Other aspects include appreciating employees for their hard work, identifying and magnifying employee strengths, and not creating a toxic workplace.

    It is worth noting that continued research on occupational health is important. In the context of educators, more research is needed to understand how risk differs between and within specific groups. Despite their overall low risk, no person or demographic is immune to suicide, and every suicide is preventable.

    If you or someone you know is experiencing signs of crisis, the free and confidential 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline is available to call, text or chat.

    This research was made possible by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Division of Violence Prevention, who sponsor the Arizona Violent Death Reporting System data. The findings and conclusions of this research are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC.

    Charles Max Katz is affiliated with Arizona State University.This research was made possible by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Division of Violence Prevention, who sponsor the Arizona Violent Death Reporting System data. The findings and conclusions of this research are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC.

    ref. Teachers and librarians are among those least likely to die by suicide − public health researchers offer insights on what this means for other professions – https://theconversation.com/teachers-and-librarians-are-among-those-least-likely-to-die-by-suicide-public-health-researchers-offer-insights-on-what-this-means-for-other-professions-252795

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Vagasky, Meteorologist and Research Program Manager, University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Radar shows a NOAA Hurricane Hunter flying through the eye of Tropical Storm Idalia during a mission in 2023. Nick Underwood/NOAA

    The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts in 2024 were its most accurate on record, from its one-day forecasts, as tropical cyclones neared the coast, to its forecasts five days into the future, when storms were only beginning to come together.

    Thanks to federally funded research, forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks today are up to 75% more accurate than they were in 1990. A National Hurricane Center forecast three days out today is about as accurate as a one-day forecast in 2002, giving people in the storm’s path more time to prepare and reducing the size of evacuations.

    Accuracy will be crucial again in 2025, as meteorologists predict another active Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

    Yet, cuts in staffing and threats to funding at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – which includes the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service – are diminishing operations that forecasters rely on.

    I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones. Here are three of the essential components of weather forecasting that have been targeted for cuts to funding and staff at NOAA.

    Tracking the wind

    To understand how a hurricane is likely to behave, forecasters need to know what’s going on in the atmosphere far from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

    Hurricanes are steered by the winds around them. Wind patterns detected today over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains – places like Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota – give forecasters clues to the winds that will be likely along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the days ahead.

    Satellites can’t take direct measurements, so to measure these winds, scientists rely on weather balloons. That data is essential both for forecasts and to calibrate the complicated formulas forecasters use to make estimates from satellite data.

    A meteorologist prepares to launch a weather balloon at Mammoth Hot Springs, Wyo. Data collected by the balloon’s radiosonde will help predict local weather that can influence fire behavior.
    Neal Herbert/National Park Service

    However, in early 2025, the Trump administration terminated or suspended weather balloon launches at more than a dozen locations.

    That move and other cuts and threatened cuts at NOAA have raised red flags for forecasters across the country and around the world.

    Forecasters everywhere, from TV to private companies, rely on NOAA’s data to do their jobs. Much of that data would be extremely expensive if not impossible to replicate.

    Under normal circumstances, weather balloons are released from around 900 locations around the world at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern time every day. While the loss of just 12 of these profiles may not seem significant, small amounts of missing data can lead to big forecast errors. This is an example of chaos theory, more popularly known as the butterfly effect.

    The balloons carry a small instrument called a radiosonde, which records data as it rises from the surface of the Earth to around 120,000 feet above ground. The radiosonde acts like an all-in-one weather station, beaming back details of the temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and air pressure every 15 feet through its flight.

    Together, all these measurements help meteorologists interpret the atmosphere overhead and feed into computer models used to help forecast weather around the country, including hurricanes.

    Hurricane Hunters

    For more than 80 years, scientists have been flying planes into hurricanes to measure each storm’s strength and help forecast its path and potential for damage.

    Known as “Hurricane Hunters,” these crews from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA routinely conduct reconnaissance missions throughout hurricane season using a variety of instruments. Similar to weather balloons, these flights are making measurements that satellites can’t.

    Hurricane Hunters use Doppler radar to gauge how the wind is blowing and LiDAR to measure temperature and humidity changes. They drop probes to measure the ocean temperature down several hundred feet to tell how much warm water might be there to fuel the storm.

    They also release 20 to 30 dropsondes, measuring devices with parachutes. As the dropsondes fall through the storm, they transmit data about the temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction and air pressure every 15 feet or so from the plane to the ocean.

    Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunter flights are the only way to directly measure what is occurring inside the storm. Although satellites and radars can see inside hurricanes, these are indirect measurements that do not have the fine-scale resolution of dropsonde data.

    That data tells National Hurricane Center forecasters how intense the storm is and whether the atmosphere around the storm is favorable for strengthening. Dropsonde data also helps computer models forecast the track and intensity of storms days into the future.

    Two NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight directors were laid off in February 2025, leaving only six when 10 are preferred. Directors are the flight meteorologists aboard each flight who oversee operations and ensure the planes stay away from the most dangerous conditions.

    Having fewer directors limits the number of flights that can be sent out during busy times when Hurricane Hunters are monitoring multiple storms. And that would limit the accurate data the National Hurricane Center would have for forecasting storms.

    Eyes in the sky

    Weather satellites that monitor tropical storms from space provide continuous views of each storm’s track and intensity changes. The equipment on these satellites and software used to analyze it make increasingly accurate hurricane forecasts possible. Much of that equipment is developed by federally funded researchers.

    For example, the Cooperative Institutes in Wisconsin and Colorado have developed software and methods that help meteorologists better understand the current state of tropical cyclones and forecast future intensity when aircraft reconnaissance isn’t immediately available.

    Forecasting rapid intensification is one of the great challenges for hurricane scientists. It’s the dangerous shift when a tropical cyclone’s wind speeds jump by at least 35 mph (56 kilometers per hour) in 24 hours.

    For example, in 2018, Hurricane Michael’s rapid intensification caught the Florida Panhandle by surprise. The Category 5 storm caused billions of dollars in damage across the region, including at Tyndall Air Force Base, where several F-22 Stealth Fighters were still in hangars.

    NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite shows Hurricanes Irma, left, and Jose in the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 7, 2017.
    NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), CC BY

    Under the federal budget proposal details released so far, including a draft of agencies’ budget plans marked up by Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, known as the passback, there is no funding for Cooperative Institutes. There is also no funding for aircraft recapitalization. A 2022 NOAA plan sought to purchase up to six new aircraft that would be used by Hurricane Hunters.

    The passback budget also cut funding for some technology from future satellites, including lightning mappers that are used in hurricane intensity forecasting and to warn airplanes of risks.

    It only takes one

    Tropical storms and hurricanes can have devastating effects, as Hurricanes Helene and Milton reminded the country in 2024. These storms, while well forecast, resulted in billions of dollars of damage and hundreds of fatalities.

    The U.S. has been facing more intense storms, and the coastal population and value of property in harm’s way are growing. As five former directors of the National Weather Service wrote in an open letter, cutting funding and staff from NOAA’s work that is improving forecasting and warnings ultimately threatens to leave more lives at risk.

    Chris Vagasky is a member of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

    ref. Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-forecasts-are-more-accurate-than-ever-noaa-funding-cuts-could-change-that-with-a-busy-storm-season-coming-255369

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How was the Earth built?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexander E. Gates, Professor of Earth and Environmental Science, Rutgers University – Newark

    The Earth formed in a ring of debris around the Sun, like the one around Vega, a bright star, in this artist’s conception. NASA/JPL-Caltech

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


    How was the Earth built? – Noah, age 5, Florida


    It isn’t easy to figure out how the Earth was built, because it happened 4½ billion years ago, and no one was there to watch. So scientists have had to look at what the Earth looks like now and at all of the other planets, moons and debris in the solar system.

    They’ve concluded that the Earth was built in the same way that you would build a big snowball to make a snowman. The mass that would become our home rolled through planetary debris – rocks floating in space – for more than 100 million years, adding more and more material, until it grew into a full-size planet.

    How do scientists like me know this is what happened? First, studies of the size, composition and location of asteroids and comets, many of which are as old as the Earth, indicate that 4½ billion years ago the solar system looked the way Saturn looks today, with rings of space rocks orbiting around the Sun. There’s still one such ring around the Sun – it’s called the asteroid belt and lies between Mars and Jupiter, with the Sun’s gravity holding the rocks in orbit.

    The solar system that includes Earth formed from a spinning disk of dust and gases.

    All of the other bodies that we know as planets today began as similar rings of space debris. An eddy, or area of rolling, developed in each of these rings and caused the debris to clump up in a snowball effect. But these pieces of debris were asteroids that smashed violently into the growing planets.

    We can see those impacts on planets and moons whose surfaces haven’t weathered or reformed. If you look at the Moon or the planet Mercury, you can see that they are covered with craters from asteroid impacts.

    When asteroids or comets struck these building planets, they crashed into their surfaces at speeds as high as 40,000 to 50,000 miles per hour (65,000 to 80,000 kilometers per hour). The impacts caused huge explosions that emitted massive amounts of dust and broken or melted rock.

    In fact, scientists believe that the Moon was once part of the Earth, until a large asteroid crashed into the Earth so hard that the Moon broke away and shot into space. There, it began orbiting the Earth as it does now.

    Still under construction

    Most big asteroids and comets collided with the Earth when it was young, about 4½ billion years ago. The number of such collisions has steadily decreased ever since. However, at least 100 tons of dust-size space rock rains down on the Earth every day, increasing the size of our planet bit by bit.

    The Earth also collides with space rocks, called meteors, that show up as shooting stars in the night sky. Some of these meteors come from an impact that struck Mars at some point, breaking away rock from the planet surface and shooting it into outer space. These rocks have been falling to Earth ever since.

    What’s the difference between an asteroid and a comet? Asteroids are large space rocks, while comets are large, dirty ice balls. Meteors are smaller − typically the size of pebbles or even dust.

    About 65 million years ago, a huge asteroid struck the Earth in the Gulf of Mexico. The enormous Chicxulub explosion drove large tsunamis throughout the ocean and raised so much dust into the air that it made the dinosaurs go extinct.

    Another large asteroid impact, about 35 million years ago, made a huge crater in the area that is now the Chesapeake Bay, near Washington, D.C. More recently, in 1908, an asteroid likely exploded over Tunguska, Russia, flattening 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers) of trees. Fortunately, no one lived in the area, so there were no known casualties.

    Barringer Crater in Arizona was caused by a meteor strike about 50,000 years ago. It measures about 0.75 miles (1.2 kilometers) across.
    D. Roddy, USGS/Wikipedia

    Once a mass of space debris was assembled into the Earth, many processes continued to shape the planet’s surface. Wind, water, heat and cold cause rocks to weather and break down and soil to erode. Mountains are created as pieces of Earth’s crust collide and crack. Rivers and glaciers wear down the planet’s surface to make it smoother.

    The Earth is a dynamic planet that is constantly being built, and these processes will continue for billions of years into the future.


    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Alexander E. Gates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How was the Earth built? – https://theconversation.com/how-was-the-earth-built-254257

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A basic income support grant can address extreme poverty and inequality in South Africa – economic model shows how

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Carolyn Chisadza, Associate professor, University of Pretoria

    South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The country’s per-capita expenditure Gini coefficient, a measure of how spending from income is distributed, stands at 0.65. This puts it among countries with the most unequal distribution of spending globally.

    Nearly 55% of the population were living in poverty in 2023. The country also has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world: 33.5% in the second quarter of 2024. To compound these issues, economic growth has stagnated since 2008.

    Ending extreme poverty, unemployment and inequality requires economic growth that includes more people. To get that result, there must be a set of interventions that work together. One intervention being considered in South Africa is basic income support to relieve poverty among unemployed citizens.

    Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, basic income support had been on the policy agenda in South Africa for at least two decades, since the Taylor Committee in 2001. The pandemic made existing inequalities worse through job losses. A “social relief of distress” grant was introduced in 2020 to support the unemployed.

    The grant targeted those affected by sudden income loss, including unemployed working-age individuals who did not qualify for other grants. The introduction of the grant renewed interest in the concept of a universal basic income, or a more comprehensive form of income support. It highlighted the welfare potential for a more permanent basic income support system.

    Very few cases of universal basic income support pilots exist in developing countries. Where they do exist, studies point to the vital benefits a basic income grant system might provide. Examples include evidence from a pilot in Namibia, nine villages in India, and rural Kenya.

    In a recently published paper, a team of economists explored the possible effects of introducing permanent basic income support to:

    • all individuals aged between 18 and 59

    • only those who are unemployed

    • only unemployed individuals in extremely poor households, defined by the food poverty line.

    The economic modelling exercise demonstrates that a basic income grant targeting all individuals aged between 18 and 59 could significantly reduce poverty and inequality. These gains would, however, require carefully targeted and implemented interventions over a multi-year period.

    Our approach

    The study identifies which socio-economic groups would benefit the most from the grant, and sheds light on the impact of basic income support on the welfare and livelihoods of individuals and their households. We used market income or pre-transfer income as the starting point to see how public spending changed poverty or income inequality.

    We used data from the 2017 Quarterly Labour Force Survey, a measure of employment and unemployment based on the country’s working population. Using the three scenarios, we calculated the likely effects.

    The first scenario was based on the universal grant being paid to all those aged 18 to 59. In the second, only those aged 18-59 who were unemployed received it. Lastly, only those who lived in extremely poor households and were unemployed in 2017 were included.

    Some form of support exists for children under 18 (child grant) and for adults aged 60 and over (pension). That’s why we allocated the grant only for adults from 18 to 59.

    In all the scenarios, the income support transfer is assumed to be R595 (US$38) per individual per month in 2021, equivalent to what it cost to provide a basic basket of food (that is, the food poverty line). We use R595 as it closely aligns with the COVID social relief of distress grant extension and reflects the grant amount for the 2021/22 financial year.

    Main findings

    The main findings show that in general, a basic income support grant has the potential to reduce poverty and inequality in South Africa. However, the effect varies based on the targeting mechanism used to identify beneficiaries. Absolute poverty, its gap (the ratio by which the mean income of the poor falls below the poverty line) and income inequality fall the most when the transfer is universal or targets the unemployed and the extreme poor.

    In the first scenario (support for all individuals aged 18 to 59) and the third scenario (the unemployed and extremely poor), both poverty headcount (the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line) and the poverty gap (the ratio by which the mean income of the poor falls below the poverty line) decrease more than in the second scenario (targeting only the unemployed). The income inequality reduction is also larger in the first and third scenarios compared to the second scenario.

    Significance of findings

    The significance of these findings is that better targeting makes basic income support more pro-poor and progressive, and reduces the leakage of the benefit to the non-poor.

    In countries such as South Africa, where poverty and inequality are extensive and public resources are limited, the case for targeting is attractive. But it’s important to recognise that effective targeting entails higher administrative costs. Conversely, while a universal basic income grant may be more expensive in terms of total disbursement, it has the greatest potential to reduce poverty and overall inequality.

    The government can make the best use of its resources by focusing on vulnerable populations, such as those who are extremely poor and unemployed.

    Finding the right criteria to identify the poor, and running the grant properly, largely determines the programme’s success in improving welfare.

    Concluding remarks

    South Africa is currently saddled with high poverty and inequality. Our study brings the debate on the potential welfare benefits of expanding existing social grants back to the forefront of social policy.

    Eleni Abraham Yitbarek is affiliated with Partnership for Economic Policy (Research Fellow)

    Carolyn Chisadza, Kehinde Oluwaseun Omotoso, Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, Nicky Nicholls, and Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A basic income support grant can address extreme poverty and inequality in South Africa – economic model shows how – https://theconversation.com/a-basic-income-support-grant-can-address-extreme-poverty-and-inequality-in-south-africa-economic-model-shows-how-247954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 78% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 39 for the Coalition, zero for the Greens and 10 for all Others, with 16 still undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 94 seats, the Coalition in 41, the Greens in one and all Others in 14.

    Undecided seats can be sorted into several categories. In some seats, the Australian Electoral Commission selected the incorrect final two candidates, and is slowly redoing this count with the correct two candidates. From the small number of votes that have been realigned, the ABC has estimates of what the two candidate vote will be when all current votes in that seat are realigned.

    This category applies to Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne, and he’s currently estimated to be trailing Labor’s Sarah Witty by an estimated 2,896 votes. The ABC says the sample of votes counted so far may be skewed against Bandt.

    Other seats in this category are Labor-held Fremantle, where a teal is estimated to be ahead by just 196 votes, Labor-held Bendigo (Nationals lead Labor by an estimated 1,285 votes) and Labor-held Bean (an independent leads Labor by an estimated 206 votes).

    This election was a disaster for the Coalition, yet they are likely to gain Bendigo, which Labor won by 61.2–38.8 at the 2022 election.

    Bradfield, Goldstein and Kooyong are teal independent vs Liberal contests. The Liberals have surged on postals in all three, and Liberal Tim Wilson will regain Goldstein if the remaining postals behave like current postals. The teals look better in Bradfield and Kooyong.

    Bullwinkel, Menzies and Longman are standard two-party contests. Labor should win Menzies, and is more likely than not to win the other two, once left-leaning absent votes start being counted.

    Calwell is currently undecided because both major parties’ primary votes slumped. It’s possible that an independent could win from third or fourth by getting ahead of the Liberals then using their preferences to beat Labor.

    In Monash and Flinders, the Liberals are beating Labor, but a teal independent is close behind Labor and may move ahead of Labor after preferences from the Greens and other minor candidates. The Liberals will probably defeat the teal if these are the final two.

    Ryan and Wills are Labor vs Greens contests. In Ryan, the contest is to finish second, then beat the Liberal National Party on the other left party’s preferences. The Greens are just ahead of Labor in Ryan at the moment. Wills is a standard two-candidate contest that Labor is currently winning comfortably.

    We won’t have a national two-party result for some time

    Current national primary votes are 34.8% Labor (up 2.2% since 2022), 32.1% Coalition (down 3.6%), 11.8% Greens (down 0.4%), 6.2% One Nation (up 1.3%), 1.9% Trumpet of Patriots (down 2.3% on United Australia Pary’s 2022 vote), 7.6% independents (up 2.3%) and 5.6% others (up 0.5%).

    The Coalition does best and the Greens do worst on early postals, which have been added since election night. Absent votes need to be posted back to their home electorate before they can be counted. On these votes, the Greens do best and the Coalition does the worst.

    As the major parties’ primary votes are low, there are many seats where Labor and Coalition candidates will not be the final two. There are currently 28 “non-classic” seats, where one of the major parties did not make the final two.

    The electoral commission’s first priority is to determine which candidate has won every seat. Once this is finished, they will conduct a second count in all non-classic seats between the Labor and Coalition candidates. When all such counts are completed, we will have a final official two-party result, but this won’t happen for at least a few weeks.

    The ABC’s current estimate for the two-party vote is a Labor win by 55.0–45.0, while The Poll Bludger estimates a Labor win by 54.1–45.9. The electoral commission’s current figure of 54.7–45.3 to Labor excludes all non-classic seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call – https://theconversation.com/late-counting-continues-in-several-seats-with-goldstein-and-melbourne-among-those-too-close-to-call-255868

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    It took an election win, but Anthony Albanese on Monday finally received that much-awaited phone call from US President Donald Trump.

    The conversation was “warm and positive,” the prime minister told a news conference, thanking the president for “reaching out”.

    “I won’t go into all of the personal comments that he made, but he was very generous in his personal warmth and praise towards myself. He was fully aware of the [election] outcome and he expressed the desire to continue to work with me in the future.”

    While they talked about tariffs (as well as AUKUS), the detailed engagement on that sensitive matter was left for later.

    Trump, as they say, loves a winner.

    When asked earlier in Washington about the Australian election, Trump said he was “very friendly” with Albanese.

    “I don’t know anything about the election other than the man that won, he’s very good, he’s a friend of mine,” the president said. Albanese had been “very, very nice to me, very respectful to me.

    “I have no idea who the other person is that ran against him.” There’s more than a touch of irony in this, given all the effort by the government and his other opponents to paint Peter Dutton as “Trump-lite”.

    The prime minister is likely to meet Trump soon, perhaps in June. Albanese has been invited to the G7 meeting in Canada. Trump may or may not be there but a meeting could be arranged around this.

    On the tariff front, the government is readying to defend the local film industry, after Trump announced a 100% tariff on all movies going into the United States.

    Arts Minister Tony Burke said: “Nobody should be under any doubt that we will be standing up unequivocally for the rights of the Australian screen industry.”

    Indonesia to be Albanese’s first foreign visit of new term

    Albanese announced his first overseas visit would be to Indonesia. This will be a particularly important visit, given the significance of the bilateral relationship and the recent Russian request (which Indonesia rejected) to base planes in Papua.

    Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto congratulated Albanese on his win in a call on Sunday.

    In the call, Albanese asked the president to host his first overseas visit, and the president said it would be “a great honour” to do so.

    Meanwhile, in the next few days Labor’s factions will be jostling over the spoils of victory. The factions work out broadly the membership of the frontbench, but Albanese, given he has massive authority with the huge win, will be able to impose his will in this process where he wants to do so. The prime minister allocates the portfolios.

    Although there will be changes, Labor sources are expecting substantial continuity between the old and new ministries, especially at the higher level.

    Albanese has previously confirmed top cabinet members, notably Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Marles, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Trade Minister Don Farrell, will remain in their present ministries.

    Most interest is in whether Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is moved. Albanese would not say, when asked during the campaign, whether she would remain in environment although he confirmed she would stay in cabinet. Albanese and Plibersek have had a poor relationship over decades. She had expected to become education minister after the last election and was shocked to be given the environment portfolio/

    Albanese told his news conference “I want Labor to be the natural party of government”.

    Knife out for Angus Taylor

    What goes around comes around. Outgoing NSW Liberal senator Hollie Hughes, who blamed shadow treasurer
    Angus Taylor for her loss of preselection because he endorsed the candidate who beat her, has unleashed on Taylor’s leadership aspirations.

    Hughes told the ABC on Monday she would not support Taylor to be the next leader.

    She said the opposition’s economic narrative “was just completely non-existent. I’m not quite sure what [Taylor has] been doing for three years.

    “There was no tax plan, I think the economic team has significantly let down the parliamentary team, it’s let down our membership, it’s let down our supporters and it’s let down people in Australia broadly – the fact they had nothing to sell, nothing to say, and clearly had not done the work that was required.”

    She said deputy leader Sussan Ley had done “a fantastic job over the past three years and I’m hopeful that she will definitely still be part of our leadership.”

    Four names are in the mix for the successor to Peter Dutton, who lost his seat of Dickson in Saturday’s rout. They are Taylor, Ley, immigration spokesman Dan Tehan and defence spokesman Andrew Hastie. None has yet declared their candidature.

    Hastie told The West Australian at the weekend, “I certainly want to be able to drive change within the party itself and what that looks like will be up to my colleagues to determine”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-budding-trump-albanese-bromance-255619

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Associate Professor and Clinical Academic Gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University

    Lordn/Shutterstock

    Coeliac disease is not a food allergy or intolerance. It’s an autoimmune disease that makes the body attack the small intestine if gluten (a protein found in wheat, rye and barley) reaches the gut. Even a small amount – a tiny bread crumb – can cause damage and inflammation.

    The only treatment is a gluten-free diet. This means completely eliminating foods containing the protein, such as pasta, bread, noodles and many processed products, and preparing food carefully to avoid cross-contamination.

    But what about other forms of cross-contamination? One study surveyed 538 adults with coeliac disease about their dating habits and found 39% were hesitant to kiss their partners because of the disease.

    But can gluten really be transferred this way, with a kiss? Research is only just beginning to look at this question – here’s what we know.

    How harmful is gluten for people with coeliac disease?

    Coeliac disease is common: surveys representative of the population estimate it affects one in 70 Australians. However, it tends to be under-diagnosed. Research suggests only 20% of those with coeliac disease have a medical diagnosis.

    This means most sufferers are unaware they have coeliac disease, despite experiencing unpleasant symptoms.

    When untreated, coeliac disease can stop the small intestine absorbing nutrients and lead to gut symptoms such as diarrhoea, abdominal pain, bloating and flatulence. It can also result in non-gut symptoms such as fatigue, skin rashes and brain fog.

    However, touching gluten won’t have any effect. Gluten only causes damage to people with coeliac disease if it enters the gut. This is why it can be effectively treated with a strict gluten-free diet.

    How much gluten is harmful?

    Researchers have investigated how much gluten can result in harm to people with coeliac disease. One study found some people with coeliac disease experienced damage to their small intestine with as little as 10 milligrams of gluten per day.

    For context, one slice of bread contains 2.5 grams of gluten. A very small amount can cause damage if eaten, such a tiny crumb accidentally transferred from a chopping board or plate.

    Australian researchers have determined that a dose of gluten below 3mg does not cause an immune response on very sensitive blood tests.

    Even a bread crumb can be harmful to people with coeliac disease, if it’s eaten.
    Master1305/Shutterstock

    Food regulatory authorities look at how much gluten is concentrated in particular foods to decide what is “gluten free”. In most countries a diet containing gluten at less than 20 parts per million (or 20mg per kilogram) is considered to be safe for people with coeliac disease.

    But Australia and New Zealand have much stricter requirements for labelling a food as “gluten free”. Testing methods in Australia allow for detection as low as three parts per million – this is known as the “limit of detection”. Foods below this limit contain no detectable gluten and can be labelled gluten free.

    So, what about kissing?

    What does this mean for kissing? Can enough gluten be transmitted from one person to another via saliva to cause problems? To date, there is very limited data.

    New US research presented today looked at ten couples, each with one partner who had coeliac disease.

    In the study, the non-coeliac partner ate ten crackers containing gluten before the couple kissed for ten seconds.

    The researchers found gluten transfer was minimal in the saliva. When the non-coeliac partner had a glass of water after eating the crackers, the gluten in their saliva was less than 20 parts per million (the international limit for gluten-free products).

    While this data has not yet been peer-reviewed, their preliminary finding seems to support similar research from 2022 which looked at peanut allergy and saliva to estimate gluten levels in saliva.

    It estimated that saliva after eating gluten could contain around 250 micrograms of gluten – one-twelfth of the minimum amount (3mg) believed to cause an immune response.

    This means, for people with coeliac disease, kissing should not be an issue to worry about.

    Cross-contamination from foods containing gluten is the biggest risk for people with coeliac disease.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    Other risks

    The bigger risk for people with coeliac disease continues to be exposure to gluten from food – even food labelled “gluten free”.

    One study found seven out of 256 manufactured food products sold as gluten free had detectable levels of gluten, in some cases as much as 3mg in a single serving.

    In 2018 another study found almost 10% of food sold as gluten free at cafes and restaurants across Melbourne actually contained gluten. One food sample contained a gluten concentration of more than 80 parts per million.

    Still, given Australia has strictest regulations in the world, the risk of getting sick from eating gluten-free foods is quite low.

    The risk from kissing? Even lower.

    If you want to look out for your loved one with coeliac disease, how you prepare food is more important. This includes preventing cross-contamination by storing and preparing gluten-free foods well away from foods containing gluten, and thoroughly cleaning equipment and utensils after they’ve been in contact with food containing gluten.

    And next time you’re on a date at your favourite eatery – whether they advertise as gluten free, or just have gluten-free items on the menu – it’s a good idea to politely ask about their food handling practices.

    Vincent Ho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-dangerous-to-kiss-someone-whos-eaten-gluten-if-you-have-coeliac-disease-255721

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    barmalini/Shutterstock

    When the Coalition launched its nuclear plan last year, Labor was on the nose and early polls showed some support for the policy. But then the wheels fell off.

    Nuclear didn’t stack up on cost or timeframe. Early support fell away. By the time of the election, support for maintaining Australia’s ban on nuclear power had increased from 51% to 59%.

    When Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave his budget reply speech in late March, he barely mentioned the nuclear policy – instead promoting gas and attacking renewables.

    After Saturday’s Coalition rout, the prospect of nuclear power in Australia should be dead and buried. But that’s not guaranteed. The National Party strongly backs nuclear power.

    With metropolitan Liberals sceptical of nuclear reduced to a rump, the Nationals and regional Liberals will gain influence within the Coalition. If conservative Nationals prevail, we may well see the nuclear policy survive the election post-mortem and be resurrected for the next election.

    Why did the Coalition back nuclear?

    In the 1990s, the Coalition introduced laws banning nuclear power in Australia. But interest in the technology has never gone away. Australia has abundant uranium, and nuclear power appeals to some demographics.

    Politically, Dutton’s choice to back nuclear power was pragmatic. There were real tensions inside the Coalition on climate action. Nuclear power seemed to offer a way past these tensions, as a zero emissions energy source providing baseload power. It would also have meant slowing the renewable rollout and building more gas power plants to cover the gap left by retiring coal.

    It appears the nuclear policy wasn’t a Dutton priority. Nationals leader David Littleproud says he and the Nationals pushed the Coalition to adopt nuclear in exchange for continued support for the 2050 net zero target. After Saturday’s wipeout in Liberal-held metropolitan seats, the Nationals will have a stronger hand.

    On Sky News yesterday, Littleproud claimed nuclear was not the reason for the Coalition’s loss. National MPs are still backing nuclear.

    If the Nationals stick to their guns, we may see the Coalition bring nuclear to the next election.

    Three-year federal terms make it difficult for new governments to embark on long term plans. Nuclear energy would take at least 15 years to come online. The Coalition’s last realistic opportunity to go nuclear would have been back in 2007, when there was renewed interest in the technology.

    At that time, renewables were quite expensive. But solar, wind and batteries now cost much less, while nuclear was already expensive and has remained so.

    Government tenders for renewable and storage projects tend to be massively oversubscribed, with far more interest than opportunities. By contrast, nuclear doesn’t have business backing. The Australian Industry Group has argued the Coalition’s nuclear policy was 20 years too late. This business reticence explains the Coalition’s proposal to build the nuclear reactors with public money.

    This year, clean energy levels in Australia’s main grid will reach 44–46%, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. With a strong pipeline of new projects, that could reach 60% by the next election. It’s hard to see what role nuclear could have in any future grid.

    Nuclear isn’t quite dead

    In contrast to intermittent renewables, nuclear offers reliable zero emissions baseload power. If you talk to nuclear backers, you’ll likely hear a variant of this sentence.

    But there’s “no going back” to the old baseload model where large, inflexible coal plants churned out power, as the head of the Australian Energy Market Operator Daniel Westerman pointed out last week. That’s because renewables are the cheapest energy source. Powering Australia on 100% renewables is possible with enough battery storage or pumped hydro to compensate for the solar duck curve, in which solar power drops off in the evening.

    So why does nuclear have a hold on the Coalition’s imagination, even as it faces its largest crisis since Menzies founded the Liberal Party?

    One likely reason is cultural opposition to renewables. This is especially evident among prominent Nationals such as Littleproud, Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce. As the thinking presumably goes, if “latte-sipping greens” in inner city areas back renewables, genuine country Australians should naturally oppose them.

    It is, of course, not that simple. Renewables are often just as popular in the bush as in the cities. A Lowy Institute poll found almost two-thirds of regional respondents supported the government’s 82% renewable target for 2030. Farmers hosting solar panels or wind turbines energy generation on their properties see them as guaranteed income even if livestock or grains are having a bad year.

    The problem for the Nationals and for the Coalition more broadly is that nuclear just isn’t that popular. Early support for the policy was soft. It melted away as authoritative sources such as the CSIRO pointed to the exorbitant cost and long timeframe to build reactors from scratch.

    Labor, with a resounding majority, is likely to accelerate the shift to clean energy. While the urban-rural political divide will still play out in Coalition opposition to clean energy, Labor’s large electoral mandate and dominance in the populous cities will encourage it to press ahead.

    As the surviving members of the Coalition lick their wounds and begin to figure out how they did so badly, we can expect to see nuclear up for discussion. But given the new power of the Nationals and regional Liberals in the party room, we may not have seen the last of nuclear fantasies in Australia.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on – https://theconversation.com/pie-in-the-sky-after-the-coalitions-stinging-loss-nuclear-should-be-dead-heres-why-it-might-live-on-255866

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Skarbek, Climateworks CEO, Monash University

    Australians have returned an expanded Labor Party to government alongside a suite of climate-progressive independents. Meanwhile, the Coalition – which promoted nuclear energy and a slower renewables transition – suffered a historic defeat.

    Labor also looks set to have increased numbers in the Senate, where the Greens are likely to hold the balance of power.

    These numbers mean support for progressive climate and energy policy in Australia’s 48th parliament is shaping as stronger than the last. So what does this mean as Australia seeks to position itself as a leader in the global net zero economy?

    In its first term in government, Labor laid the groundwork for stronger climate action, including legislating an emissions-reduction target and putting crucial policies and organisations in place. The next parliament will be well-placed to build on these foundations. Here, we explain where key opportunities lie.

    1. National emissions target for 2035

    By September this year, all signatories to the global Paris Agreement must set emissions reduction targets out to 2035.

    Labor is waiting on advice from the Climate Change Authority before setting its target. The authority’s initial advice last year suggested a target between 65% and 75%, based on 2005 levels.

    Some countries have already set their targets. The United Kingdom, for example, will aim for a reduction of at least 81% by 2035, based on 1990 levels.

    2. A firm plan for net-zero

    Australia has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Getting there will require innovation and investment across the economy. In the last term of government, Labor began
    developing net-zero plans for each economic sector. They comprise energy, transport, industry, resources, the built environment, and agriculture and land.

    The plans are due to be finalised this year. They will act as a tangible map for Australia to meet both net zero and the 2035 emissions-reduction target, and are keenly awaited by state governments, industry and investors.

    This policy area presents the broadest opportunity for the crossbench to exert influence for greater ambition, scale and pace. Neither the 2035 target nor the sector plans need to go through parliament – however they could feature in broader parliamentary negotiations.

    Separately, the Safeguard Mechanism will be reviewed in 2027, during this parliament. The policy aims to reduce emissions reductions from Australia’s biggest greenhouse-gas polluters. It is key to reaching net zero in Australia’s industrial sector, and an important moment to ensure the policy reduces emissions at the rate needed.

    3. Bidding to host COP31

    Australia is bidding to host next year’s United Nations global climate talks, or COP, in partnership with Pacific Island nations. The bid was opposed by the Coalition.

    A decision on the COP host is expected in June. If Australia succeeds, the federal government will seek to use the high-profile global gathering to showcase its climate credentials – and there will be high expectations from Pacific co-hosts. So all policy between now and then really matters.

    4. An energy system to make Australia thrive

    Energy produces about 70% of Australia’s emissions. Tackling this means reducing emissions from electricity through renewable generation. Elsewhere in the economy, it means switching from gas, petrol and diesel to clean electricity.

    The government’s plan to reach 82% renewable energy by 2030 remains crucial. Australia’s electricity system is expected to reach around 50% renewable energy this year. But there is more work to do.

    A review of the National Electricity Market is due this year. It is expected to recommend ways to promote greater investment in renewable generation and storage. This includes what policy might follow the Capacity Investment Scheme, a measure to boost renewables investment which will be rolled out by 2027.

    Faster action on the renewable shift can also be achieved through the Australian Energy Market Operator’s next Integrated System Plan – the nation’s roadmap for guiding energy infrastructure and investment.

    Labor also has scope to improve energy efficiency, and better match energy demand and supply – especially at times of peak energy use. The government’s commitments to subsidise home batteries, and expand the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, will help achieve this. The crossbench, including the Greens, is likely to seek greater investments to reduce household energy use and costs.

    Beyond this, Australia’s electricity grid needs to be double the size of what’s currently planned, to power the entire economy with clean energy.

    5. Leverage clean energy export advantages

    Australia generates about a quarter of its GDP from exports – many of them emissions-intensive such as fossil fuels, minerals and agricultural products.

    In his election victory speech, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged Australia to seize the moment at a time of global economic disruption. Key to this will be building on the Future Made in Australia agenda and ensuring Australia makes the most of its competitive advantages as the world transitions to net-zero.

    This will include:

    • leveraging a strong reputation as a reliable trade partner
    • capitalising on our world-leading solar and wind energy resources to produce low-emissions goods for export
    • developing the industry around critical minerals and rare earths needed in low-emissions technologies
    • helping metals and minerals sectors achieve net-zero emissions pathways.

    This will be central to trade negotiations in the years to come. Realising Australia’s green exports aspiration requires action abroad as well as at home.

    A game-changing decade

    This decade is crucial to Australia’s future economy, and to the success of Australia’s long-term transition to net zero emissions. Our work has shown Australia can slash emissions while the economy grows.

    The question now is how quickly the re-elected government – indeed, the next parliament – can realise Australia’s ambition as a renewable energy superpower.

    The next three years will provide vital opportunities and they must be seized – for the sake of our energy bills, our economic prosperity and Australia’s reputation on the world stage.

    Anna Skarbek is on the board of the Net Zero Economy Authority, SEC Victoria, the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is CEO of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.

    Climateworks Centre is a part of Monash University. It receives funding from a range of external sources including philanthropy, governments and businesses. Businesses such as mining companies and industry associations have previously co-funded Climateworks’ research on industrial decarbonisation, and may benefit from policies mentioned in this article.

    ref. 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver – https://theconversation.com/5-huge-climate-opportunities-await-the-next-parliament-and-it-has-the-numbers-to-deliver-255772

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  • MIL-Evening Report: After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our crucial security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.




    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton


    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” approach when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    ref. After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US – https://theconversation.com/after-its-landslide-win-labor-should-have-courage-and-confidence-on-security-and-our-alliance-with-the-us-255598

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  • MIL-Evening Report: A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    More than 18 million Australians voted on Saturday, after walking past countless corflutes, reading campaign flyers and reviewing how-to-vote cards.

    The 2025 federal election was Australia’s biggest yet, with 710,000 more people on the electoral roll than in 2022. The Australian Election Commission amassed 250,000 pencils, 240,000 vests, 80,000 ballot boxes and 5,000 rolls of tamper-proof tape to stock some 7,000 polling places.

    So, what happens to these materials after polling day? Some are warehoused, ready for reuse next time around. Others are repurposed. But every election also generates a mountain of waste for landfill.

    It doesn’t have to be this way. Australia needs to mandate a cradle-to-grave approach to creating, using, recycling and disposing of election materials. Meanwhile, electronic machines and online voting can reduce the need for paper ballots, just as social media campaigns can reduce paper mail drops.

    Magill School in the Sturt electorate, like most polling centres, was wrapped in lightweight plastic posters.
    Clare Peddie

    Where do election materials go after the polls close?

    In response to inquiries from The Conversation, the Australian Election Commission said most AEC materials, such as tamper-proof tape, vests and pencils, are stored between elections at counting centres. Other materials, such as cardboard voting booths, are recycled or donated to schools or charities.

    Most councils require corflutes to be collected within seven days of an election. But no rules govern reuse or disposal. Corflutes are made from polypropylene, a lightweight plastic that is technically recyclable. But it’s not a straightforward process, so most recycling facilities reportedly cannot accept this waste.

    Some candidates donate corflutes to schools, childcare centres and charities, because the white reverse side can be used to mount artworks.

    Second-hand corflutes have also been used as shelters for homeless people, heat shields for bee hives, or to repair damaged skylights. But no doubt many end up in landfill.

    Are there alternatives?

    Many countries are “greening” their elections. In 2019, India’s election commission directed parties to eliminate single-use plastic including corflutes. In 2024, the United Kingdom’s Westminster Foundation for Democracy outlined strategies for reducing election “pollution”, addressing supply chains and packaging.

    Australia relies heavily on disposable election materials. While many of these can be recycled, it’s better to avoid single-use materials.

    Parties could also display how-to-vote instructions on posters at election sites, rather than handing out individual flyers that are recycled or thrown away.

    In 2022, the AEC introduced plain brown cardboard screens and ballot boxes, saying they are easier to recycle and reuse than previous versions “wrapped” in purple-and-white branded paper. However, Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers says elections will probably always be “highly manual and resource-intensive exercises”. We disagree.

    Could Australia use electronic or online voting to reduce waste?

    Other countries are introducing online voting to reduce waste. One study in Estonia found the carbon footprint of paper-based voting was 180 times greater than internet-based voting. More than 50% of the population voted online in 2023.

    India introduced electronic voting machines in 1982 and mandated them, nationwide, in 2004. In 1999 alone this saved 7,700 tonnes of waste.

    The United States introduced mechanical voting machines in the 1890s, punch cards and scanned ballots in the 1960s, and “direct-recording” electronic voting machines in the 1970s. Today, touch screens are used in many voting booths, with paper records for auditing. Now just 7% of districts rely on paper ballots and hand-counted ballots are rarely used.

    Yet electronic voting machines are not without controversy. Security concerns after the 2016 US election resulted in 94% of districts shifting to optical scanning, and use of “direct-recording” electronic voting machines almost halved.

    Ireland invested €50 million (A$88 million) into electronic voting machines in 2002, but they were never used due to concerns about potential tampering.

    Australia should explore secure options for electronic voting machines and online voting. In its response to The Conversation, the AEC said this would be a matter for parliament to consider, because the law currently demands that elections are in-person events.

    Can social media campaigning help?

    Social media enables candidates and voters to engage in new ways. For instance, Labor senators Katy Gallagher and Penny Wong took part in a Facebook “pop quiz” on April 29, which had 55,000 views. But social media can amplify misinformation, so consumers need to fact-check what they see and hear online.

    Combined, the parties and affiliated groups spent more than A$39 million on advertisements on YouTube, Facebook and Google during the 2025 campaign. The AEC had to update its authorisation guidelines to cover podcasters and other content creators.

    This mirrors global shifts towards social media campaigning. During Canada’s 2025 campaign, Liberal leader Mark Carney (who went on to be elected prime minister) created a video with celebrity Mike Myers, reaching 10 million views.

    While such creative approaches may engage voters, they still carry a carbon footprint. Carney and Myers’ video likely produced about six tonnes of CO₂ emissions due to the energy and electricity used in production, streaming and viewing.

    Mike Myers and Mark Carney used social media creatively in Canada’s 2025 election campaign.

    Text messages also connect candidates with voters. Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party sent 17 million texts the election campaign. This equates to 240kg of CO₂ emissions from energy-hungry data centres and personal devices.

    This is less than the emissions the average Australian produces in a week. However, the unsolicited texts riled many voters, many concerned about privacy and who wanted to opt out.

    What’s the solution?

    Australia should mandate a reduction in the disposal of election materials.

    Some print materials may always be needed, because not all voters can access digital content or vote online. But the current situation is unsustainable.

    Global experiences show innovation is possible. Australia can reduce its reliance on new, physical materials, while maintaining public trust.

    Australia’s newly elected officials have an opportunity to green future elections, adopting a more sophisticated approach to voting in a digital age. There’s no excuse for producing mountains of plastic and paper waste every three or four years. Our nation deserves better.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the Association for Information Science and Technology.

    Gary Rosengarten receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Renewable Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 CRC, and is a non-executive board member of the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity.

    Matt Duckham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way – https://theconversation.com/a-rubbish-election-voting-in-australia-produces-mountains-of-waste-but-theres-a-better-way-255780

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Slade, Associate Professor of Fashion, University of Technology Sydney

    Portrait of a Man, c. 1855 National Gallery of Art

    Fashion is one of the most powerful tools we have for understanding ourselves and the world around us. Nowhere is this clearer than in the story of Black American tailoring and the legacy of the Black dandy.

    Inspired by scholar Monica L. Miller’s groundbreaking book Slaves to Fashion: Black Dandyism and the Styling of Black Diasporic Identity, the theme of The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute spring 2025 show is Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.

    The exhibition charts the evolution of the Black dandy from the 18th century to today. The story it tells is about more than suits. It’s about power, pride, resistance and joy.

    Each year, the Met Gala takes its dress code from the institue’s spring exhibition. This year’s is “Tailored for You”. So who is the Black dandy, why are they so important to fashion today, and what can we expect to see on the red carpet?

    The birth of the Black Dandy

    “Black dandy” is a modern term. Figures like American abolitionist Frederick Douglass (1818–95) or Haitian revolutionary leader Toussaint Louverture (1743–1803) would not have called themselves dandies, but they used style with similar effect: as a tool of resistance, self-fashioning and cultural pride.

    Toussaint Louverture was a leader during the widespread uprisings of enslaved people in Saint-Domingue (now Haiti) in 1791. This image was drawn in 1802.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    French poet Charles Baudelaire (1821–67) first wrote about dandies in 1863, describing them as individuals who elevate style to a form of personal and aesthetic resistance.

    Baudelaire’s dandy was not just stylish but symbolic. He was an emblem of modernity itself: a time marked by fluid identities, liminal spaces and the collapse of clear boundaries between gender, authenticity and social order.

    Dandyism among Black men took root in the 18th and 19th centuries in both the United States and the Caribbean. Tailoring became a way to reclaim dignity under enslavement and colonialism.

    Dandies take the clothing of an oppressor – aristocratic, colonial, segregationist or otherwise – and turn it into a weapon of elegance. Through meticulous style and refinement, dandies make a silent yet striking claim to moral superiority.

    Frederick Douglass was born into slavery, and freed in 1838. This photograph shows him in 1855.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Douglass famously appeared in immaculate Victorian suits when campaigning for abolition, consciously dressing in the same style as those who denied his freedom.

    Louverture used perfectly tailored French military uniforms during the Haitian Revolution against French colonial rule.

    In the 1920s, Harlem dandies wore fine tailoring and flamboyant colours, rejecting the idea that poverty or discrimination should dictate presentation.

    In perfectly tied cravats, polished shoes and sharply tailored coats, Black dandies refashion power on their own terms.

    Presence through style

    Dandies also challenge the narrow rules of masculinity.

    Conventional menswear often demands restraint, toughness and invisibility. Dandies dare to embrace beauty, self-adornment and performance. This masculinity can be expressive, creative and even flamboyant.

    The luxurious silk suits and carefully groomed appearance of American Jazz pioneer Duke Ellington (1899–1974) projected glamour rather than austerity.

    The elegantly tailored overcoats and scarves of American poet Langston Hughes (1901–67) suggested a masculinity deeply entwined with creativity and softness.

    Figures in Harlem’s ballrooms and jazz clubs blurred gender boundaries decades before mainstream conversations about gender fluidity emerged.

    A street scene in Harlem, New York City, photographed in 1943.
    Library of Congress

    A tradition of Black tailoring

    In a world where Black self-presentation has long been scrutinised and politicised, tailored clothing asserted visibility, authority and artistry. Dandies transformed fashion into a political declaration of dignity, resistance and creative power.

    Black American tailoring practices blossomed most visibly in the zoot suits of the Harlem Renaissance, though they also had strong roots in New Orleans, Chicago and the Caribbean.

    As seen in the Sunday Best of the Civil Rights era, Black tailoring walked the line between resistance and celebration: beautiful but with clear political intent.

    In the 1970s, the Black dandy became more flamboyant, wearing tight, colourful clothes with bold accessories. He transformed traditional suits with exaggerated shapes, bright patterns and plaids inspired by African heritage.

    Artists popular with a white audience like Sammy Davis Jr (1925–90), Miles Davis (1926–91) and James Brown (1933–2006) embraced the aesthetic, contributing to its widespread acceptance.

    Sammy Davis Jr with his first European gold record, 1976.
    Nationaal Archief, CC BY

    Meanwhile, a super stylish contingent of Black men in the Congo, La Sapeur, refined their look so spectacularly they would become the benchmark of the Black dandy for generations to come.

    The 1990s saw a new era of Black dandyism emerge through luxury sportswear and hip-hop aesthetics.

    Designer Dapper Dan (1944–) revolutionised fashion by remixing luxury logos into bold, custom streetwear, creating a distinctive Black aesthetic that bridged hip-hop culture and high fashion.

    Musician Andre 3000 (1975–) redefined menswear by blending Southern Black style with bold colour, vintage tailoring and theatrical flair.

    Today, the tradition thrives in the style of influencer Wisdom Kaye, the elegance of LeBron James, and the risk-taking of Lewis Hamilton.

    Dressing for the red carpet

    Tailored for You invites guests to interpret the dandy’s legacy in personal, bold and boundary-pushing ways.

    Whether conforming to tradition, subverting expectations or creating something entirely new, this theme is a celebration of the freedom to dress – and be – on your own terms.

    The Black dandy is a figure of defiance and desire, of ambiguity and brilliance, of resistance and beauty. Dandyism blurs boundaries between masculinity and femininity, artifice and authenticity, conformity and rebellion. It unsettles fixed identities and reflects broader tensions within modern life.

    The poet and activist Countee Cullen, as depicted by Winold Reiss around 1925.
    National Portrait Gallery

    Black dandies have shocked, amused, offended, delighted and inspired society since their inception. In the sharp defiance of Douglass’ Victorian suits, the flamboyant spectacle of Harlem ballrooms, and the logo-laced rebellion of Dapper Dan’s streetwear, the Black dandy has continually forced the world to reckon with the politics of presence, pride and performance.

    Despite being overlooked by mainstream fashion history, they’ve shaped the way we see elegance, masculinity and self-expression. This Met Gala and the accompanying exhibition are not just a celebration – they are a long-overdue recognition.

    Dijanna Mulhearn receives funding from Australian Government Research Training Stipend.

    Toby Slade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala – https://theconversation.com/tailoring-and-the-black-dandy-how-250-years-of-black-fashion-history-inspired-the-2025-met-gala-250650

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our critical security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.




    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton


    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    ref. Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence – https://theconversation.com/australia-can-no-longer-take-a-business-as-usual-approach-to-the-us-on-security-its-time-for-courage-and-confidence-255598

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University

    This year’s election campaign marked a turning point in Australian politics. TikTok has emerged not just as another tool, but as a main battleground.

    Although it played a part in the 2022 election, this was the first time the two major parties and the Greens embraced short-form video as a serious campaign strategy.

    These videos may seem silly or nonsensical, but for many Gen Z voters, they may have been the only political messages they encountered in the entire five-week campaign. Given the dominance of Gen Z and Millennial voters, social media videos are increasingly important.

    A blend of trends, podcasts and thirst traps

    The Australian Labor Party’s campaign leaned heavily into TikTok culture, crafting a multi-pronged strategy to reach younger voters where they scroll. This included meme engagement like this absurdist #italianbrainrot trend.

    #brainrot refers to deliberately absurd, low-effort videos that thrive on chaos and nonsensical repetition.

    It’s an existing TikTok trend that started in early 2025 and is designed to capture attention in an oversaturated feed. In other words, don’t try to understand, just watch and enjoy.

    Another standout is a now-viral video of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese edited with the stylistic flair typical of TikTok “thirst trap” content. The editing style and music choice are both characteristic of this sub-genre of video designed to make the subject appear attractive.

    It walked a fine line between irony and sincerity: an intentional nod to the platform’s unique language and humour. While some lapped it up as clever, others question whether such tactics undermine the seriousness of politics.

    Labor also heavily invested in podcasting, with Albanese appearing on youth-oriented shows with the likes of Abbie Chatfield and Ozzy Man. These long-form interviews were mostly promoted by the podcasters themselves, which was a clever use of their existing audiences. It contributed to a strategy that prioritised personality as much as policy.

    Combined with a coordinated influencer outreach, including briefings with popular creators, Labor’s campaign showed a keen understanding of the algorithmic economy. Whether it was cringey or clever, it was undeniably calculated.

    Trendsetters with turbulence

    The Liberal Party started its TikTok campaigning back in December 2024. These early videos, many AI-generated, saw remarkable traction. The highest-viewed video, an AI voice-change take on a scene from “The Grinch”, has been viewed 2.8 million times.

    Then came “Tim Cheese”, a trending fictional character they used to blur the lines in political storytelling. A “bad guy”, Tim Cheese was used by the Liberals to highlight that the known bad guys aren’t always bad.

    One standout video was the introduction of “Cheesy Albanese”, which merged political satire with platform-native humour that resonated with the audience.

    The Liberals also tapped into trending sounds and aesthetics such as #brainrot and #italianbrainrot. In fairness, they were the first to use it before the official campaign started.

    But with any innovative campaign comes risk.

    A notable misstep was the repurposing of influencer content, including that of Holly MacAlpine.

    Topham Guerin, the strategy company behind the campaign, has a reputation for provocative approaches that can come close to, but don’t actually break, the law. However, this use of content did wear thin for some followers, sparking early signs of disengagement.

    The campaign’s second major stumble came on election day.

    US-based TikTok creator Ray William Johnson, who has more than 18.5 million followers, called out the Liberals for blocking his account when they clearly used his video and animation style.

    Johnson said he had no issue with the mimicry, but the party’s pre-emptive blocking of him fuelled backlash. His response video, now seen more than 12 million times, ends with a blunt directive: “I hope everyone goes out and votes for the other guy.”

    It was a viral moment that undid much of the earlier momentum, and demonstrates the high stakes of campaigning in the age of creator culture.

    Despite a clever response video from the Liberals, it was overshadowed by the sheer scale of the backlash.

    With these lows there was still highs, including a highly effective and trending video game that saw players “Escape Albo”.

    The Liberals were early trendsetters, creating boundary-pushing content for all users, even those without strong political views. They experimented with styles that went on to be mimicked, particularly with Labor’s #brainrot-inspired content.

    Greens go from giant toothbrushes to DJ sets

    In a bid to connect with the gaming community, Tasmanian Senator Nick McKim took to livestreaming sessions of the popular game Fortnite. Donning comfortable clothes and a headset, McKim engaged viewers with gaming lingo and humour, aiming to make politics more relatable to younger audiences.

    These videos were a huge success, with this one being viewed 1.4 million times.

    A central feature of the Greens social media campaign was the deployment of a giant toothbrush prop, symbolising the party’s commitment to integrating dental care into Medicare. It featured across various platforms and was a nice link to events in Brisbane and Melbourne.

    These events featured the support of big-name influencers and prompted spinoff videos launching Greens Leader Adam Bandt’s DJ career.

    But despite the flashy props, influencer cameos and party vibes, the Greens’ campaign often felt more like a collection of stunts than a cohesive digital strategy: memorable in moments, but ultimately lacking impact.

    Did it make any difference?

    While many labelled the 2025 election dull, the TikTok campaign told a different story. It was unpredictable, occasionally “cringe”, but deeply entertaining.

    It’s too soon to know if any of this shifted votes or even opinions. Party officials, campaign strategists and academics will all be watching closely to find out.

    While social media is ubiquitous in our lives, using it to campaign is still relatively new in our political history. There are no best-practice guidelines or proven approaches. Of all this content thrown at the wall, it will be fascinating to see what sticks.

    But to the millions of Australians on TikTok, politics has never looked or sounded quite like it did in 2025.

    Susan Grantham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok – https://theconversation.com/thought-the-election-campaign-was-boring-maybe-youre-just-not-on-tiktok-255847

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