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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Super antibodies’ for snake toxins: how a dangerous DIY experiment helped scientists make a new antivenom

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina N. Zdenek, Associate Researcher, The University of Queensland

    Scientists in the United States have created a new snake antivenom using the blood of a man who deliberately built up immunity to snakebites by injecting himself with many different kinds of venom more than 800 times over 18 years.

    The researchers showed “super antibodies” from the man’s blood prevented toxic damage from neurotoxins found in the venoms of 19 different snake species, including mambas and cobras.

    The new study may represent a welcome advance in antivenom production. Most current techniques are more than a century old and involve injecting venom into horses and other animals, then harvesting antibodies from their blood.

    Even so, new treatments are only part of the challenge of addressing the huge global problem of snakebites, which kill and maim hundreds of thousands of people around the world each year.

    How was this new antivenom made?

    Tim Friede describes himself as an “autodidact herpetologist and venom expert”. He deliberately immunised himself with increasing doses of a number of snake venoms over an 18-year period, in a risky practice known as “mithridatism” that we don’t recommend. Some issues include: Friede nearly died several times, and immunity can drop in weeks.

    Scientists took a small sample of Friede’s blood and isolated the antibodies his immune system had developed to counteract the venoms. Next, they determined which of the antibodies were broadly effective against two important types of neurotoxins found in the venoms of elapid snakes, a family of species including cobras, mambas, and taipans.

    The next step was to sequence the DNA from Friede’s b-cells (a type of immune cell) that produced those two antibodies, then insert the genes responsible into a kind of virus called a bacteriophage. Then, using the modified bacteriophage and human cells as mini factories, the researchers produced lots of the antibodies to use in their work.

    How is antivenom usually made?

    Antivenom is currently the only specific treatment available for snakebites. It is usually produced by first collecting venom (which is dangerous), then “hyper-immunising” a domesticated animal (such as a horse) by routinely injecting it with small but increasing doses of that venom.

    Christina Zdenek and Chris Hay extracting venom from a coastal taipan (Oxyuranus scutellatus).
    Russell Shakespeare

    The horse’s blood is extracted and its antibodies purified. The antibodies can then be injected into a snakebite victim, where they stick to toxins. This prevents the toxins from binding to targets in the body, and it also flags them for elimination by the immune system.

    Traditional antivenoms have their problems. They can cause a severe allergic response known as an anaphylactic reaction (up to 50% of the time, in some countries). They may also have limited effectiveness due to differences in venom composition in snakes from different regions, or at different stages of the snake’s life.

    Broad-spectrum or “polyvalent” antivenoms are made by injecting horses with mixtures of venom from different species or different populations of snakes. However, the elevated antibody content per dose can increase the risk of adverse reactions.

    Another challenge with mixed antivenoms is that some toxins that produce a strong immune response can suppress the production of antibodies against other equally dangerous toxins.

    Why has it taken so long to improve antivenom production?

    Antivenom production is not presently a very profitable business. The expenses are huge, there is limited economy of scale, the effectiveness of antivenoms can be geographically specific, and the products have a short shelf-life and may have strict refrigeration requirements.

    Snakebite is also a disease of poverty. The people most affected are those least able to afford treatment.

    In Australia, the government has been supporting onshore antivenom production since 2020.

    Christina Zdenek retrieves snake venoms from a freezer for antivenom tests in the lab.
    Russell Shakespeare

    How else can we treat snakebite?

    In the past decade, more precise, ethical, and potentially cost-effective methods of producing snakebite therapeutics have emerged. These include monoclonal antibodies produced in the lab, as well as more conventional drugs.

    For example, varespladib is one drug that has progressed to phase II clinical trials. It works extremely well against a major component found in many snake venoms worldwide.

    Hybrid products containing “designer antibodies” and inhibitors like varespladib may be the future of snakebite treatment.

    The new “universal elapid antivenom” is in many ways an improvement on traditional antivenoms. However, there are still several deadly toxins present in elapid snake venoms it does not address, such as the coagulotoxin (blood-attacking) prothrombinase found in the venom of eastern brown snakes and taipans.

    Why do we need antivenom?

    Many people around the world live with the daily threat of being bitten by a venomous snake. Farmers, graziers, children walking barefoot to school, and many rural and remote workers in tropical and subtropical region, are at risk.

    The World Health Organisation deems snakebite a neglected tropical disease. It kills one person roughly every four minutes. As many as 2.7 million people are bitten annually, resulting in up to 138,000 deaths and around 400,000 people permanently maimed.

    An eastern brown snake (Pseudonaja textilis) passes through a suburban backyard in eastern Australia.
    Chris Hay

    Will this new medicine reduce snakebite deaths?

    When it comes to reducing the number of people who die from snakebite, novel snakebite treatments are undoubtedly important. However, developing new drugs is the relatively easy part of the problem.

    A drug is only as good as your capacity to deliver it when and where it’s needed. For snakebites, time is short and locations may be remote.

    Several antivenoms available in Australia.
    Christina N. Zdenek

    Far more attention and resources need to be devoted to all aspects of health infrastructure in the tropics, including the availability and distribution of life-saving medicines.

    Prevention is also critical. Reducing the number of snakebites will reduce the burden on health infrastructure by saving lives and limbs.

    To achieve this, we need far more resources devoted to research on snake behaviour, snake ecology, human–snake interactions, and public education about snakes. Snakebite is the result of an ecological encounter between two organisms, and we know disappointingly little about the circumstances in which it occurs.

    Christina N. Zdenek co-owns and works for the Australian Reptile Academy, a Queensland-based company that provides venomous-snake identification and handling courses for industry and the public.

    Timothy N.W. Jackson is co-head of the Australian Venom Research Unit, which has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Department of Health, and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. ‘Super antibodies’ for snake toxins: how a dangerous DIY experiment helped scientists make a new antivenom – https://theconversation.com/super-antibodies-for-snake-toxins-how-a-dangerous-diy-experiment-helped-scientists-make-a-new-antivenom-255611

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is the stupidest thing a recent president has said? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Lamb, Professor of Journalism, Indiana University

    Lots of presidents have said things they regret. Or most of them have. Carol Yepes/Getty Images

    President Donald Trump was asked during a press conference on April 30, 2025, about the possible impact of his tariff policies and trade war with China.

    Trump answered that American children should prepare to make sacrifices at Christmas.

    “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” he said, “and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

    The New York Times reported that Trump appeared to be telling kids they would have to manage with fewer toys this year for the sake of his economic agenda.

    Jane Mayer, a reporter with The New Yorker, called it “Trump’s Marie Antoinette moment.”

    This was not the first − or last − time Trump said something that left many Americans with mouths open and heads shaking.

    Hours after his Marie Antoinette moment, Trump, whose first 100 days back in office have been characterized as chaotic and damaging to democracy, was asked during a phone interview at a town-hall broadcast on NewsNation what the biggest mistake he’d made thus far in his second presidency.

    “I don’t really believe I’ve made any mistakes,” Trump replied.

    The audience, representing a cross section of Americans, burst out laughing.

    Trump’s gaffes aren’t just part of his presidency; gaffes are part of the storied tradition of the American presidency. Some of those comments have clung to presidents and even affected history.

    Here are examples from each president over the past 50 years or so of statements that at least some of them were embarrassed by or came to regret. Each was made when the president was serving in the White House. The quotes are organized chronologically.

    Donald Trump auditions for Grinch-who-stole-Christmas role.

    Richard Nixon is a law-abiding guy

    On Nov. 17, 1973, President Richard M. Nixon, in the midst of the Watergate scandal that would end his presidency, defended himself against charges of corruption.

    “People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook,” Nixon said. “Well, I’m not a crook. I’ve earned everything I’ve got.”

    Instead of quelling the scandal, as Nixon hoped, his words produced the opposite reaction. He resigned from the presidency nine months later in August 1974.

    Gerald Ford forgets the Cold War

    Gerald Ford, Nixon’s vice president who became president after Nixon’s resignation, subsequently ran for election in 1976.

    During one of his televised debates against Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter, Ford inexplicably claimed the Soviet Union did not control Eastern Europe.

    “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,” Ford said, “and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

    To which the moderator, New York Times editor May Frankel, said, “I’m sorry, what?”

    Ford’s remark was so outrageously incorrect that it may have contributed to his defeat in the tight presidential election.

    Gerald Ford says it’s really a Warm, not Cold, War.

    Jimmy Carter gets advice from his teen

    Carter defeated Ford and was elected in 1976. He ran for reelection against Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in 1980. During one of their debates, Carter said he sought the advice of his 13-year-old daughter, Amy, on what was the most important issue facing America.

    “She said she thought it was nuclear weaponry,” Carter said, “and the control of nuclear arms.”

    Carter tried to show that arms control was a subject that had great resonance to even 13-year-olds. Instead, it left viewers puzzled why he had inserted his daughter into the debate. A wire service story at the time summarized the response by saying that reporters covering the debate winced and others groaned.

    Jimmy Carter has a smart 13-year-old daughter.

    Ronald Reagan attacks Russia

    Reagan, a former television and movie actor who defeated Carter in the 1980 presidential election, was known as “the Great Communicator” for his eloquence.

    A well-known anti-Communist, Reagan was not always careful about what he said.

    Before a speech on Aug. 11, 1984, Reagan joked during a sound check, “I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

    The joke on the open mic, which was not broadcast live but leaked later, resulted in a Soviet red alert − and temporarily moved the U.S. and Soviet Union toward war.

    George H.W. Bush eats word salad

    Reagan’s successor, his vice president, George H.W. Bush, by comparison was no great communicator. His words came out of his mouth and appeared to go in separate ways.

    “I have opinions of my own, strong opinions,” Bush said, “but I don’t always agree with them.”

    Bill Clinton is or isn’t, maybe

    Democrat Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential election.

    Clinton’s presidency was dogged with accusations of unethical behavior and extramarital affairs. Clinton, in testimony before a grand jury investigating his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, was asked whether he was lying when he told aides that “there’s nothing going on” between him and Lewinsky.

    “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is,” Clinton responded. “If the − if he − if ‘is’ means is and never has been, that is not − that is one thing.”

    Slate magazine said that this response may have been the “defining moment” of his presidency and, in doing so, captured his contribution to semantics. As Time magazine pointed out,
    “Until then, America hadn’t been sure there was more than one definition of ‘is.’”

    George W. Bush’s shame

    George W. Bush, the son of George H.W. Bush, succeeded Clinton in the White House. Americans learned that Bush had more in common with his father than just the same last name.

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee − I know it’s in Texas,” Bush said, “probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on − shame on you. Fool me − you can’t get fooled again.”

    Barack Obama strikes out

    Barack Obama, like Reagan, was known for his sense of humor. And like Reagan, Obama learned that not everything was a joking matter.

    While appearing on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno in 2009, Obama said he had improved his bowling by practicing at the White House bowling alley. He told Leno he had bowled a pedestrian score of 129, provoking a sarcastic response from Leno.

    Obama then made the following joke: “It’s like the Special Olympics or something.”

    Obama quickly apologized to the Special Olympics, the athletic competition for people with intellectual disabilities.

    Obama made a bad joke about the Special Olympics during an interview with Jay Leno; he quickly apologized for it.
    Mandel Ngan / AFP/Getty Images

    Joe Biden’s bad day

    Trump was first elected president in 2016 but was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Trump and Biden faced each other again in 2024.

    During a television debate on June 27, 2024, CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked Biden why voters should trust him to solve the immigration crisis. Biden said he changed a law that allowed Trump and his administration to separate immigrant families and put children in cages.

    Biden’s train of thought then jumped the tracks.

    “And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the − the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden said.

    “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said, “and I don’t think he did, either.”

    The same could be said for much of what Biden said during the debate.

    Biden withdrew from the presidential race three weeks after his poor debate performance.

    Chris Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is the stupidest thing a recent president has said? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-stupidest-thing-a-recent-president-has-said-it-may-depend-on-what-your-definition-of-is-is-255755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain’s nuclear future? What small reactors, fusion and ‘Big Carl’ mean for net zero

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tomas Martin, Associate Professor in Materials Physics, University of Bristol

    Former UK prime minister Tony Blair recently argued nuclear power is an “essential part of the answer” to net zero. Writing in the foreword of a report by his thinktank, the Tony Blair Institute, he claimed small modular nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion and other advanced technologies can help lower the emissions of the electricity sector.

    It’s worth looking at what these technologies involve, and how far off the UK is from integrating them into its electricity system. But we should first recognise great progress in the electricity sector in the past 15 years, and how dramatic reductions in the cost of wind and solar have led to huge increases in renewable capacity across the globe.

    The UK completely removed all coal-fired power in 2024, largely replaced by offshore wind and gas. However, relying on any one technology makes an electricity grid less resilient, and nuclear is zero-carbon and can help stabilise the grid when so much electricity comes from intermittent renewables.

    Historically, nuclear has contributed around 15% to 25% of the UK’s electricity supply, however most reactors have closed or are approaching the end of their life. The fleet of 26 Magnox reactors built in the 1960s finished operation by 2015 and are now being decommissioned.

    Over the past three years three other sites have also closed, with the remainder currently anticipated to run until 2028-2030. At this point, what was once 41 reactors will have shrunk to just Sizewell B, a power plant operational on the Suffolk coast since 1995.

    Replacing this drop in electricity production must be a big priority. The construction of two new reactors at Hinkley Point C in south-west England started in 2016 but won’t finish until at least 2029. Significant planning has taken place for an identical site at Sizewell C in Suffolk, and a final decision is expected shortly.

    The pressurised water reactor design at these two sites produces significantly more electricity than past UK designs, and these four reactors will together produce 6.4GW of electricity, replacing all 14 of the reactors that are retiring.

    Supporting the construction of new reactors at Hinkley Point and Sizewell is essential for maintaining the UK’s electricity supply, but basically returns the country to the status quo. Beyond, there are number of exciting new developments.

    SMRs

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced modular reactors (AMRs) have frustratingly similar names, but have become the main way to categorise the two options. The “small” in SMRs is because they produce between 30MW and 300MW of electricity, compared to 1,600MW for each reactor at Hinkley Point C.

    The “modular” is driven by a desire to produce multiple identical reactors at once in a factory, rather than constructing on site. This can dramatically reduce manufacturing and installation time, potentially making them much cheaper.

    A combination of new SMRs and one or two new Hinkley C-sized reactors would enable UK nuclear capacity to expand beyond the status quo in the 2030s, further reducing the carbon emissions of the electricity sector.

    The next generation

    Further into the future, exciting research is taking place on the next “generation IV” nuclear designs: advanced modular reactors (AMRs).

    Some AMRs can run at much higher temperatures, which could help decarbonise tricky industries like steelmaking or produce hydrogen for energy storage or low-carbon plane fuel. Some designs can even reuse nuclear waste, reducing how long it needs to be stored safely.

    Even further in the future, nuclear fusion – the same process that powers the sun – could offer clean electricity without producing long-lasting radioactive waste. The UK is supporting this by building a demonstration fusion plant called STEP which aims to start operating by 2040.

    One of the biggest criticisms of nuclear is the cost. Building a nuclear plant is a massive project that can take many years or even decades. Hinkley Point C, for example, has up to 10,000 workers and more than 100 cranes on site, including the world’s biggest crane “Big Carl”.

    Because plants take so long to build, the money is borrowed years before any electricity is generated, gathering significant interest in the meantime. These interest payments can ultimately make up as much as two-thirds of the total cost.

    A new funding model, similar to that used for big infrastructure projects like Crossrail, should lower costs.

    But once a nuclear plant is built and paid off, it’s one of the cheapest ways to generate electricity – especially as modern reactors can run for up to 80 years. That’s why government support to cover upfront construction costs can pay off in the long run.

    The previous UK government ambition was to build 24GW of new nuclear power by 2050 – about four times more than the country has today. However, the current government has not confirmed it will stick to this target.

    To get there, the UK would need to approve several new nuclear projects every few years starting in 2030, which will require major investment in skills, resources and collaborations.

    We urgently need to decarbonise our energy system, and future nuclear reactors can play an important role in that alongside renewables and other technologies.

    Tomas Martin receives funding from EDF and the Royal Academy of Engineering as part of the Royal Academy of Engineering Senior Research Fellowship scheme. His research work includes projects sponsored by EDF, UKAEA and UKNNL.

    – ref. Britain’s nuclear future? What small reactors, fusion and ‘Big Carl’ mean for net zero – https://theconversation.com/britains-nuclear-future-what-small-reactors-fusion-and-big-carl-mean-for-net-zero-255797

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Want to walk the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage? Leave your phone at home

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Una Cunningham, Professor emerita, Department of Teaching and Learning, Stockholm University

    The yellow shell symbol that marks the path of the Camino de Santiago. Armando Oliveira/Shutterstock

    Pilgrimage offers a chance to disengage from the everyday and think deeply about what is important. Leaving home and spending some time on the move with no concerns other than putting one foot in front of the other can be life-changing.

    Pilgrimage has been described as a liminal experience, which means you are neither at home nor at your destination, caught between two existential levels. Many people return home feeling transformed.

    Since the mid-1990s, the numbers of people walking the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage route to what the faithful believe to be the tomb of Saint James the Apostle in northwestern Spain have rocketed. And they continue to rise, probably approaching the numbers who made the pilgrimage in the middle ages, when up to 2 million people are believed to have walked each year.

    Medieval pilgrims prepared for pilgrimage by setting their financial and spiritual affairs in order: writing a will and going to confession. Pilgrimage was seen as a rite of passage, or an individual quest where social status and networks were traded for anonymity and poverty in constant mobility. Arrival conveyed salvation, or perhaps a cure or a mystical revelation.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Contemporary, postsecular pilgrimage on the Camino de Santiago is often undertaken at turning points in the pilgrim’s life, for psycho-existential motives. Pilgrimage allows you to take time out from your life. Authenticity and simplicity are valued and will show you that you actually need very little. Slow mobility facilitates introspection and may have transformative effects.

    At the same time, you can prepare for a pilgrimage as for any other activity, using the digital tools at your fingertips to gather information from official apps and online communities, possibly to learn some Spanish, and to make decisions in the planning of the route, accommodation, equipment and training. It is possible to arrange everything in advance, but you risk becoming hyper-informed, losing the opportunities for discovery, wonder and surprise that are part of pilgrimage.

    Technology during your pilgrimage

    I research online Camino forums. They are divided on the use of technology (such as smartphones) while actually on pilgrimage.

    Unbroken digital interaction with family and friends at home will thwart some of the goals of your journey. Instead of being fully in the moment you will remain socially present in a symbolic world somewhere else, with all the worries of that world close at hand.

    You’ll also miss opportunities to trust your intuition, and the community of pilgrims you meet on the Camino. You don’t need a map. The trail is blazed with yellow arrows and stylised scallop shells. Without a phone you can plan your next day’s walk using a guidebook and if you want to book a bed for the next day, the albergue (pilgrim hostel) staff can help.

    The Camino path is well signposted.
    Soloviova Liudmyla/Shutterstock

    Many see a Camino pilgrimage as an opportunity for a digital detox and attempt to at least regulate the amount of time spent with a smartphone. But even if you keep your phone in your backpack during the day and concentrate tech time to the evening, you will be interrupting the separation from your life at home that is necessary if your pilgrimage is to be a liminal experience. When you catch up on news, email and family, you step back into the everyday.

    Live blogging and vlogging from the Camino is encouraged by prospective pilgrims lurking in the Camino forums. Those who have already completed one or more Caminos comment to relate and vicariously relive their own Camino experiences. Live turn-by-turn reports are also appreciated by those undertaking virtual pilgrimage.

    After your return home you can join the ranks of veterans who retell their pilgrimage to the online community and contribute with advice to prospective pilgrims. But doing this while on the Camino focuses your attention to other people and places rather than the here and now.

    The liminal experience that was supposed to bring the pilgrim to insight does not always happen, due, at least partly, to digital distraction and incomplete extraction from the everyday environment. In the words of Camino anthropologist Nancy Frey, use the Camino as a chance for disconnection. If you must take a phone, keep it turned off in your backpack – strictly for emergencies.

    Una Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Want to walk the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage? Leave your phone at home – https://theconversation.com/want-to-walk-the-camino-de-santiago-pilgrimage-leave-your-phone-at-home-252676

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can drinking champagne reduce your risk of sudden cardiac arrest? Here’s why it’s only a small part of the story

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David C. Gaze, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Pathology, University of Westminster

    Lomb/Shutterstock

    “My only regret in life is that I didn’t drink enough champagne,” the English economist and philosopher John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) is reported to have said. As it turns out, there may be a surprising ounce of truth to that quote.

    Picture this: a glass of champagne – bubbly, crisp and, for many, reserved for toasts and celebrations. Now imagine it being mentioned in the same sentence as a way to help prevent sudden cardiac arrest: a condition where the heart abruptly stops beating, killing tens of thousands each year, often without warning. Sounds too good to be true, right?

    Yet, a Canadian study has uncovered a curious link. Using data from over half a million people in the health research database the UK Biobank, researchers found that those who consumed moderate amounts of white wine or champagne had a lower risk of experiencing sudden cardiac arrest. Surprising, especially given the widely held belief that red wine, not white, is what benefits the heart.

    To rule out coincidence, the researchers double-checked their findings using genetic data – and the connection seemed to hold firm. This suggests there might be more to the story than chance alone.

    The study didn’t stop at wine. It explored more than 100 lifestyle and environmental factors tied to sudden cardiac arrest, including diet, exercise, air pollution, emotional wellbeing, body composition and education levels – all of which have been independently associated with risk. The conclusion? Up to 63% of sudden cardiac arrest cases could potentially be prevented by addressing these risk factors.

    Among all the protective factors identified, a few stood out: fruit consumption, regular computer use (yes, really) and moderate drinking of white wine or champagne were all linked to a reduced risk of sudden cardiac arrest. Why? That remains uncertain.

    One theory is that white wine contains antioxidants that may support heart health. Another possibility is that people who drink these types of beverages may also be more affluent and more likely to engage in other healthy behaviour, such as eating well, exercising regularly – and have access to better healthcare.



    Read more:
    Wealth, wellness and wellbeing: why healthier ageing isn’t just about personal choices

    But before you pop a cork in celebration, a word of caution: alcohol remains a complex and often contradictory player in heart health. Other large-scale studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between alcohol and cardiovascular disease. Non-drinkers may have a certain level of risk, moderate drinkers of one glass of wine a day may see some benefit, but heavy drinking sharply increases the risk of high blood pressure, stroke and heart failure.

    One observational study involving over 400,000 participants even found that moderate drinking could raise the risk of arrhythmias, which in some cases can lead to sudden death.

    So while champagne may offer a hopeful glimmer, it’s no magic bullet. The study’s broader message was clear: it’s the overall lifestyle that matters most. Better sleep, regular physical activity and a balanced diet significantly reduced the risk of sudden cardiac arrest – and could prevent nearly one in five cases.

    On the flip side, obesity, high blood pressure and chronic stress were among the strongest risk factors, along with lower education levels and exposure to air pollution. These findings underscore that preventing sudden cardiac arrest isn’t just about personal habits: it’s also about the environments we live in and the policies that shape them. Cleaner air, better education and easier access to nutritious food could all play a role.

    Sudden cardiac arrest is not entirely random. Many of the contributing factors are within our control. Managing stress, staying active, maintaining a healthy weight, getting quality sleep – and yes, perhaps enjoying the occasional glass of white wine – can all help. But the real power lies in stacking small, healthy choices over time. Prevention is rarely about a single change; it’s about the cumulative effect of many.

    And in case you were wondering: Keynes suffered a series of heart attacks in 1946, beginning during negotiations for the Anglo-American loan in Savannah, Georgia. He described the process as “absolute hell”. A few weeks after returning to his farmhouse in Firle, East Sussex, he died of a heart attack at the age of 62.

    Maybe he was right about drinking more champagne after all.

    David C. Gaze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can drinking champagne reduce your risk of sudden cardiac arrest? Here’s why it’s only a small part of the story – https://theconversation.com/can-drinking-champagne-reduce-your-risk-of-sudden-cardiac-arrest-heres-why-its-only-a-small-part-of-the-story-255708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From vigorous brushing to clear aligners, here’s what might be causing your gums to recede

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Flavio Pisani, Senior Clinical Lecturer in Periodontology, School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Central Lancashire

    sruilk/Shutterstock

    One of the most common concerns patients bring to the dental chair is receding gums. Often, the immediate assumption is: “I must have gum disease.” While this can be true, gum recession isn’t always a clear-cut sign of disease. In fact, many people don’t notice any problem until they begin to experience tooth sensitivity to cold, hot, or sweet foods – or they notice their smile changing, with more visible tooth surfaces or small gaps appearing between the teeth.

    Dentists often respond to this concern with a quick fix: applying white composite fillings near the gum line. While this may help with sensitivity in the short term, it can make the problem worse over time by contributing to further gum recession.

    Gum disease – also known as periodontitis – is a serious condition. Symptoms such as bleeding when brushing, drifting teeth, persistent bad breath, or tooth mobility should always be investigated. However, gum recession can have other causes, too.

    Even ex-fiances of Jennifer Lopez can develop gum disease.

    Perhaps surprisingly, one of the biggest culprits behind receding gums is actually overzealous brushing. Using too much force or brushing with the wrong tools – like a hard-bristled toothbrush – can gradually wear away gum tissue. Electric toothbrushes can help by reducing pressure, especially newer models that light up when you brush too hard. But in reality, many people focus more on how long they brush than how they brush. Even the smart apps that pair with these toothbrushes usually highlight brushing time in each area, rather than pressure applied.

    That’s why teaching proper brushing technique is so important. The best method will vary depending on a patient’s individual tooth and gum structure – and it should always aim to remove plaque effectively while using gentle, consistent pressure. If someone is doing well with a manual toothbrush and has a solid technique, there’s no reason to switch to an electric one.

    Another growing cause of gum recession is cosmetic tooth straightening with clear aligners. While aligners are effective for aligning teeth quickly, they’re often paired with fixed retainers – wires bonded behind the teeth to hold them in place. Over time, this can cause the roots to drift outside the natural bone housing of the jaw, resulting in gum tissue shrinking away from the teeth.

    Solutions

    The good news is that there are solutions. Every case is unique, but with the right knowledge and techniques, dentists can help patients restore both gum health and appearance.

    For cases where the gum tissue has receded significantly, there are several surgical options depending on the patient’s needs and goals.

    For functional concerns, a technique called the free gingival graft is commonly used. This involves transplanting a thin layer of tissue – usually taken from the roof of the mouth (the palate) – to create a band of tough, pink gum around the base of the teeth. This helps patients brush comfortably without irritating the soft tissue of the gum. While this procedure can slightly reduce recession, the main goal is improving durability and comfort, not aesthetics. The graft is often visibly different in colour and texture.

    For cosmetic concerns, more advanced “plastic surgery” techniques are available. One popular method involves carefully lifting the local gum tissue, inserting a tissue graft beneath it (again, typically taken from the palate), and stitching it in place. This “sandwich” approach thickens the gums and gives them a healthier appearance. The graft acts as a scaffold for the existing gum tissue to grow back over, improving both form and function.

    These procedures are safe, effective and minimally invasive. They’re typically performed under local anaesthetic in a dental practice and require only a few days of recovery with over-the-counter pain relief. For anxious patients, conscious sedation can also be used – a technique where medications are used to relax a patient during a medical procedure, allowing them to remain awake and alert while feeling less nervous and potentially less aware of what’s happening.

    Long-term studies show these techniques to be reliable, with a success rate of up to 93% and minimal relapse even five years after surgery.

    The most important step in managing gum recession is a comprehensive patient assessment. While cosmetic concerns matter, the real priority is making sure gum disease isn’t being overlooked. Periodontitis is a silent and progressive condition, leading to chronic inflammation, bone loss and eventually tooth loss.

    More importantly, research links periodontal disease to systemic health conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and even dementia. Protecting our gums isn’t just about maintaining a nice smile – it’s about safeguarding our overall health.

    Flavio Pisani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From vigorous brushing to clear aligners, here’s what might be causing your gums to recede – https://theconversation.com/from-vigorous-brushing-to-clear-aligners-heres-what-might-be-causing-your-gums-to-recede-255123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who gets to be called an astronaut? Private space travel has reignited debate over use of prestigious title

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent University

    Copyright: Blue Origin

    The recent all-women spaceflight carried out on Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin vehicle has raised discussion of who gets to be called an astronaut. Sean Duffy, Donald Trump’s transportation secretary, disputed the astronaut title given to those on the flight, including singer Katy Perry and journalist Gayle King.

    The term astronaut was only rarely disputed until the first “celebrity” suborbital flight in 2021. In the 1960s, pilots flying the experimental, rocket-powered X-15 jet were awarded astronaut status by the US Air Force if they flew above 50 miles (80km).

    Sir Richard Branson’s 2021 flight aboard his Virgin Galactic vehicle reached 53 miles (85km) – an altitude recognised by some experts as being within outer space. Bezos followed a few days later, travelling on his Blue Origin New Shepard vehicle. This flight reached about 68 miles (106km) in altitude.

    Bezos has focused on reaching an altitude of about 62.1 miles (100km), one proposed boundary of space known as the Kármán line, named after the early 20th-century polymath Theodore von Kármán.

    A 2021 post on social media by Bezos’s Blue Origin capitalised on the fact that his New Shepard vehicle reached the higher boundary. The suggestion from the post was that those who travelled to the lower boundary on rival Virgin Galactic flights could have their “space traveller” status questioned, whereas those who travelled with Blue Origin could not.

    This particular post did not mention the question of who is an “astronaut”. However, this is how Blue Origin currently describes those who travel on New Shepard.

    Indeed, some definitions of “astronaut” simply state that it is a person who has been to space. Therefore, another implication of the post – intentional or not – might be that those who travel with Bezos’s company are more eligible for such a designation than those who have been to lower altitudes.

    While Blue Origin calls the Kármán line an “internationally recognised boundary” of space, it is far from universally accepted. Theodore von Kármán wanted to separate out aeronautics (the science of flying aircraft) and astronautics (the science of space travel).

    As a byproduct, he calculated the maximum altitude that an aircraft could go without reaching orbital velocity (where it would start orbiting the Earth) to be around 52 miles (84km).

    A researcher and associate of von Kármán called Andrew Haley was interested in space law. He established von Kármán’s calculation as the boundary of space. This was later raised to 62.1 miles (100km) by the world governing body for air sports, the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale.

    The Kármán line has very little scientific rationale, however. If you ask a geologist, an atmospheric scientist and a space physics expert where the definition of space is, you will get vastly different answers.

    For example, as somebody who specialises in magnetospheric physics and solar influence, I would say space properly starts at the plasmapause. This is a boundary around the Earth that’s based on differences in the charged particles that exist on either side of the division. The plasmapause sits at an altitude of around 35,000 miles (57,000km).

    Who is an astronaut?

    The recent Blue Origin flight understandably made a strong positive impression on the passengers. Gayle King compared the flight to the historic launch in 1961 that made Nasa astronaut Alan Shepard the first American in space.

    The effusive reactions from the passengers, along with King’s and Blue Origin’s use of the term “astronaut” to describe the team members prompted a backlash online. King noted that men on similar flights hadn’t been subjected to such criticism, and Katy Perry says she felt “battered and bruised” by the reaction.

    Among the critics was the US transport secretary, Sean Duffy, who stated that the participants could not be astronauts as they failed to meet the FAA astronaut criteria. The FAA requirements for an astronaut are for them to be a member of crew, to contribute to spaceflight safety and to demonstrate activities essential to public safety. Their minimum altitude for “space” is the 50 mile (80km) limit.

    As New Shepard is fully automated, none of the passengers could really be considered “crew members”. Similarly, if you buy a ticket on a plane, you are not crew unless employed by the airline to do a job.

    Would it be different if private space travellers were able to carry out scientific research during their journey? This might make them more than just passengers and potentially qualify them for the “crew” designation. Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are actually not suited for any sort of weightlessness research. Passengers experience around 3-4 minutes of weightlessness.

    By contrast, a flight on the Airbus A310 zero-G plane gives 25-30 seconds of weightlessness. When this is repeated 25-30 times, you get between 10 and 15 minutes of weightlessness in total. This avenue for carrying out research in microgravity is also open to anybody with a sensible scientific idea to test rather than just members of the rich elite.

    Why it matters

    Does it matter what space travellers actually call themselves? The FAA designation of “astronaut” is not the only one. Some dictionary definitions simply define an astronaut as a person trained to go into space or, as mentioned, a person who has flown in space. The passengers on Blue Origin’s New Shepard flights would probably qualify under both of these definitions.

    But let’s consider the legal dimension. Star Trek actor William Shatner flew with Blue Origin on a New Shepard vehicle in 2021. If Shatner had experienced a health-related incident during the flight, who would have been at fault?

    If Shatner was an “astronaut”, could it be argued that he held a greater level of responsibility for any adverse effects from the flight? If he was simply a passenger, might the company share more responsibility?

    Thankfully, such a situation has not yet occurred, which means that any associated legal arguments remain hypothetical. But as more paying passengers travel on flights to space, the chances of adverse incidents increase.

    Ultimately, everyone can have an opinion about whether just going into space – wherever the boundary may lie – makes you an astronaut. But there may be more to consider than a nice title.

    Ian Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who gets to be called an astronaut? Private space travel has reignited debate over use of prestigious title – https://theconversation.com/who-gets-to-be-called-an-astronaut-private-space-travel-has-reignited-debate-over-use-of-prestigious-title-255630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can vitamin D help prevent colorectal cancer? The science is promising – but not straightforward

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Yulia Furman/Shutterstock

    The potential role of vitamin D in preventing and treating colorectal cancer (CRC) has attracted growing research interest – especially as CRC rates are rising, particularly among younger adults. This isn’t a new area of study. Low vitamin D levels have long been linked to a higher risk of developing colorectal cancer.

    One large study involving over 12,000 participants found that people with low blood levels of vitamin D had a 31% greater risk of developing CRC compared to those with higher levels. Similarly, another study reported a 25% lower CRC risk among individuals with high dietary vitamin D intake.

    Data from the Nurses’ Health Study – a long-term investigation of American nurses – showed that women with the highest vitamin D intake had a 58% lower risk of developing colorectal cancer compared to those with the lowest intake.

    Now, a review highlights vitamin D’s promise in colorectal cancer prevention and treatment – but also underscores the complexity and contradictions in current research.

    While observational data, which follow people’s use of vitamin D, and mechanistic studies, to investigate how vitamin D works in the laboratory, suggest protective effects, this isn’t confirmed by larger trials.

    In fact, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), in which some people receive vitamin D and others don’t, the gold standard by which treatments are judged, reveal inconsistent outcomes. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to its integration into public health strategies.

    Vitamin D is synthesised in the skin in response to sunlight and exerts its biological effects through vitamin D receptors (VDRs) found throughout the body, including in colon tissue. When activated, these receptors help regulate gene activity related to inflammation, immune response and cell growth – processes central to cancer development and progression.

    Preclinical studies have shown that the active form of vitamin D (calcitriol) can suppress inflammation, boost immune surveillance (the immune system’s ability to detect abnormal cells), inhibit tumour blood vessel growth and regulate cell division – a key factor in cancer development, as demonstrated in my recent research.

    Epidemiological studies, which track health outcomes across large populations over time, consistently find that people with higher blood levels of vitamin D have a lower risk of developing CRC. This paints a hopeful picture, suggesting that something as simple as getting more vitamin D – via sun exposure, diet, or supplements – could lower cancer risk.

    But the story gets more complicated.

    Mixed results

    When it comes to medical decision-making, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard. These studies randomly assign participants to receive either a treatment (like vitamin D) or a placebo, helping eliminate bias and isolate cause-and-effect relationships.

    Unfortunately, RCTs on vitamin D and CRC have produced mixed results.

    For example, the VITAL trial – a major RCT involving over 25,000 participants – found no significant reduction in overall colorectal cancer incidence with 2,000 IU/day of vitamin D supplementation over several years.

    However, a meta-analysis of seven RCTs did show a 30% improvement in CRC survival rates with vitamin D supplements, suggesting potential benefits later in the disease course rather than for prevention.

    On the other hand, the Vitamin D/Calcium Polyp Prevention Trial found no reduction in the recurrence of adenomas (pre-cancerous growths) with supplementation, raising questions about who benefits most, and at what dosage.

    Adding to the uncertainty is the question of causation. Does low vitamin D contribute to cancer development? Or does the onset of cancer reduce vitamin D levels in the body? It’s also possible that the observed benefits are partly due to increased sunlight exposure, which itself may have independent protective effects.

    The big picture

    These discrepancies highlight the importance of considering the “totality of evidence” – treating each study as one piece of a larger puzzle.

    The biologic plausibility is there. Observational and mechanistic studies suggest a meaningful link between vitamin D and lower CRC risk. But the clinical evidence isn’t yet strong enough to recommend vitamin D as a standalone prevention or treatment strategy.

    That said, maintaining sufficient vitamin D levels – at least 30 ng/mL – is a low-risk, cost-effective health measure. And when combined with other strategies like regular screening, a healthy diet, physical activity, and personalised care, vitamin D could still play a valuable role in overall cancer prevention.

    Vitamin D is not a miracle cure – but it is part of a much broader picture. Its role in colorectal cancer is promising but still being defined. While it’s not time to rely on supplements alone, ensuring adequate vitamin D levels – through sun exposure, diet, or supplements – remains a smart choice for your health.

    Colorectal cancer is a complex disease, and tackling it requires an equally nuanced approach. For now, that means focusing on evidence-based lifestyle changes, regular screenings, and staying informed as new research unfolds.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can vitamin D help prevent colorectal cancer? The science is promising – but not straightforward – https://theconversation.com/can-vitamin-d-help-prevent-colorectal-cancer-the-science-is-promising-but-not-straightforward-255025

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Trump’s tariffs could hit developing economies – even those not involved in the trade war

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Selim Raihan, Professor of Economics, University of Dhaka

    The world has witnessed a resurgence of protectionism since Donald Trump returned to the White House. So-called “reciprocal” tariffs, imposed on all US trading partners at varying degrees based on the tax they charge on American goods, have been one of the hallmark features of Trump’s economic policy. They aim to correct what he perceives as “unfair” trade practices.

    In early April, Trump said many countries had “ripped us off left and right” and declared “now it’s our turn to do the ripping”. His administration swiftly imposed sweeping tariff increases, with some of the highest rates falling on poorer countries like Laos and Lesotho.

    A 90-day suspension was eventually made for most of these tariffs, and Trump has now softened duties on imported cars and car parts. But the danger remains high. No one can be certain that the initial reciprocal tariffs will not be reinstated.

    Developing countries, many of which rely heavily on the export of manufactured goods to the US, will be keeping a keen eye on what happens next.

    We employed the Global Trade Analysis Project model to analyse the possible effects of US tariffs on trade and economic growth. The model captures interactions and feedback among economic agents (households, firms and governments), markets, sectors and regions in the world economy.

    It can be used to forecast the effect of trade reforms on various indicators such as production, welfare, income, prices and trade flows. Based on certain assumptions, the changes are likely to be seen in between two and three years.

    We used simulations to compute the effects of Trump’s tariff regime under two alternative scenarios. In the first, which reflects the global trade situation at the time of writing, baseline tariffs are levied on all countries at 10%. The duties are 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 145% on China. Retaliatory duties by China on US goods are set at 125%.

    In the second, across-the-board reciprocal tariffs are imposed on countries at the levels Trump declared in his initial plan on April 2. This is in addition to the 145% tariff on Chinese goods, 25% on those from Canada and Mexico and a 125% duty by China on imports from the US.

    Winners and losers

    As shown by the graph below, our simulations suggest the US tariff regime will distort export patterns worldwide. The most painful effects will fall on China and the US itself.

    Chinese exports would shrink by 10.8% in the first scenario and 10.9% in the second. The US would suffer an even larger loss of 11.7% and 14.9%, respectively.

    The model suggests that other major US trading partners such as Canada and Mexico would also experience deep export declines of over 5% in both scenarios. Roughly 75% of Canada’s exports head south towards the US.

    Among the developing Asian economies, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines would experience substantial export declines. This is particularly the case in the second scenario, with losses ranging from 2% to 4.4%. These countries are particularly vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs because they rely heavily on exports and are deeply tied to global supply and production chains.

    Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam may benefit in the first scenario due to a possible diversion of trade. These countries, which are known for having some of the lowest labour costs in the world, offer cheap alternatives for goods that US importers would previously have sourced from China.

    But they are expected to lose the majority of these benefits in the second scenario under a full reciprocal tariff regime. The exceptions are Cambodia and Indonesia, which our simulations suggest will retain positive export growth – albeit reduced to 1.6% from 4% for Cambodia and unchanged at 0.7% for Indonesia.

    This may be because Cambodia and Indonesia have slightly more diversified export baskets than countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and trade with more partners. However, these gains are likely to be short lived if global uncertainties continue.

    Major advanced economies such as Japan, the UK and EU will lose exports by a moderate amount. And the Middle East, north Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (excluding Brazil) will see similar declines.

    The second graph presents a concerning picture of how trade disruption could affect GDP, which economists use to measure the size of a country’s economy. The US and China are again set to suffer the steepest GDP losses, of 0.3% in the US and 1.9% in China under the second scenario. This confirms the well-established economic consensus that trade wars are mutually destructive.

    Under the second scenario, most emerging and developing economies would suffer modest GDP declines between 0.3% and 1%. Thailand (1%), Malaysia (0.9%), Brazil (0.9%) and Vietnam (0.9%) are the worst hit countries in this category.

    Like most of the developing countries in Asia, which are not directly involved in the trade war, many countries in Latin America, the Middle East, north Africa and sub-Saharan Africa would still face hits to their GDP. This underscores the global interconnectedness of trade and investment flows.

    The simulations confirm what economists have been asserting for years: trade wars do not have winners. While some countries do benefit in the short term by way of trade diversion, the total losses are high and developing countries are not immune from the damage.

    However, there are strategies developing countries can employ to improve their resilience to global trade disruptions. This includes diversifying their export markets by, for example, establishing stronger trade ties in regional blocs.

    One example is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement between the Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Such ties can be strengthened further.

    Developing countries should also use this turbulent period to streamline customs, upgrade port infrastructure and improve logistics. This can reduce costs, enhance competitiveness and help developing economies engage more deeply in international trade.

    No country is exempt from disruptions to global trade. But those with diversified economies, strong regional linkages and resilient trade infrastructure will weather the turbulence more successfully.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Trump’s tariffs could hit developing economies – even those not involved in the trade war – https://theconversation.com/how-trumps-tariffs-could-hit-developing-economies-even-those-not-involved-in-the-trade-war-255435

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side – it can change the chemistry of our oceans

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juan Diego Rodriguez-Blanco, Ussher Associate Professor in Nanomineralogy, Trinity College Dublin

    Glitter is festive and fun – a favourite for decorations, makeup and art projects. But while it may look harmless, beautiful even, glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side. Those shimmering specks often end up far from party tables and greeting cards. You can even spot them glinting on beaches, washed in with the tide.

    In our recent research, we discovered that glitter – specifically, the kind made from a common plastic polymer called polyethylene terephthalate (PET) – is not merely polluting the ocean. It could actively interfere with marine life as it forms shells and skeletons, which is a much bigger deal than it might sound.

    Put simply: glitter helps the formation of crystals that nature did not plan for. And those crystals can break the glitter into even smaller pieces, making the pollution problem worse and more long-lasting.

    We tend to think of microplastics as tiny beads from face scrubs or fibres from clothes, but glitter is in its own special category. It is often made of layered plastic film with metal coatings – the same stuff found in craft supplies, cosmetics, party decorations and clothing. It is shiny, colourful and durable – and extremely tiny. That makes it hard to clean up and easy for marine animals to eat, because it looks tasty.

    New research reveals that PET-based glitter microplastics in the sea can actively influence a process known as biomineralisation.

    However, our research paper in the journal Environmental Sciences Europe suggests that what really sets glitter apart from other microplastics is the way it behaves once it enters the ocean. It actively interacts with its surroundings; it’s not drifting passively.

    In our lab, we recreated seawater conditions and added glitter to the mix to explore whether glitter would affect how minerals – like the ones marine animals use to make their shells – form. What we saw was surprisingly fast and incredibly consistent: the glitter was kickstarting the formation of minerals such as calcite, aragonite and other types of calcium carbonates in a process known as “biomineralisation”.

    These minerals are the building blocks that many marine creatures – including corals, sea urchins and molluscs – use to make their hard parts. If glitter is messing with that process, we could be looking at a serious threat to ocean life.

    A crystal-growing machine

    Under the microscope, we saw that glitter particles acted like little platforms for crystal growth. Minerals formed all over their surfaces, especially around cracks and edges. It was not a slow build-up – crystals appeared within minutes.

    This can complicate natural processes. Marine creatures use very precise conditions to make their shells the right shape and strength. When something like glitter comes along and changes the rules – speeding up crystal growth, changing the types of crystals that form – it could mess with those natural processes. Like baking a cake and suddenly having the oven heat up to 1,000ºC, you might still get a cake – but it will not be the one you intended to cook.

    Worse still, as the crystals grow, they push against the layers of glitter, causing it to crack, flake and break apart. That means the glitter ends up turning into even smaller pieces, known as nanoplastics, which are more easily absorbed by marine life and nearly impossible to remove from the environment.

    Microplastics are eaten by marine life, from fish and turtles to oysters and plankton. This affects how animals feed, grow and survive. When we eat seafood, these microplastics become part of our own diet.

    But our findings show that glitter does not just get eaten. It changes the chemistry of the ocean in tiny but important ways. By promoting the wrong kind of mineral growth, glitter might interfere with how ocean animals form their shells or skeletons in the first place.

    This problem does not stop with wildlife. The ocean plays a key role in regulating Earth’s climate, and mineral formation is part of that equation. If calcium carbonate formation in the ocean changes, it could also affect how carbon moves through the planet.

    So, the next time you see glitter on a birthday card or in a makeup palette, remember this: it might look like harmless sparkle, but in the ocean, it behaves more like a flashy chemical troublemaker. What seems small and shiny to us could be a big, silent disruptor for the marine world.

    And once it is out there, it is not going away.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side – it can change the chemistry of our oceans – https://theconversation.com/glitters-sparkle-hides-a-darker-side-it-can-change-the-chemistry-of-our-oceans-255155

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Historical films and TV shows are embracing diversity – but real historical voices are still overlooked

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Éadaoin Agnew, Senior lecturer in English literature, Kingston University

    In the Disney+ television series, A Thousand Blows, Malachi Kirby plays Hezekiah Moscow, a Jamaican immigrant in London who is part of an underground boxing ring in the 1880s.

    The character, like many in the show, is based on a real-life figure. However, as historian David Olusoga recently explained in a comment to the Radio Times, Moscow is typical of many people who have come from the Caribbean or Africa in that we only have a fractured biography in the British historical records. We get flashes of information before he disappears.

    In recent years, there have been increasing creative efforts to fill these historical gaps. This suggests there is a willingness, at least in some spheres, to acknowledge the long history of multiculturalism in Britain and to see people of colour in 19th-century histories (see also 2019’s David Copperfield starring Dev Patel and the multicultural cast of Bridgerton).

    These costume dramas build on decades of scholarly work. There are now many excellent historical studies that document the various ways in which the Atlantic slave trade and imperialism produced routes and reasons for travel to Britain.

    Most people who arrived here from the colonies in the 18th and 19th centuries did not have the means to write their own stories, so we glance their lives through incomplete historical records. But, there were also British subjects of colour who were educated in English with a degree of relative privilege and who produced compelling and popular accounts of their experiences in Britain or life in the colonies. They also wrote fascinating fiction and beautiful poetry.

    These narratives directly challenge the general perception that multiculturalism emerged in Britain after the Windrush (Caribbean immigrants who arrived in Britain after the second world war to rebuild the nation) and that 19th-century English literature emerged only from Britain. Yet, there remains an unwillingness to centre these stories and to allow diverse voices to speak for themselves.

    My own work on the AHRC-funded Victorian Diversities Research Network seeks to recuperate and promote these stories.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Historical writers of colour and writers from other marginalised communities are continually excluded from school curricula, literary anthologies and TV adaptations. This is a kind of cultural gate-keeping that reinforces imperialist ideas about literary value.

    One example of this literary exclusion is Mary Seacole (1805-1881). Born in Jamaica to a Creole mother and Scottish father, she is now remembered in Britain for her contributions to nursing during the Crimean War. She is commemorated for her work by a statue at St. Thomas’ Hospital in London and by John Aagard’s wonderful poem Checking Out Me History (2019).

    Even so, there is a notable neglect of her fantastic memoir. Published in 1857, Wonderful Adventures of Mrs. Seacole in Many Lands is a funny, insightful and interesting account of her fulsome life. It clearly shows an affinity for Britain, while also acknowledging the difficulties she experienced there.

    One of two known photographs of Mary Seacole, taken circa 1873.
    Wiki Commons

    Another example is Ham Mukasa (1870-1956), who penned an account of his travels to England as part of an official African delegation in 1902 titled Uganda’s Katikiro in England. Written in a light and lively manner, his travelogue offers a fascinating picture of London at the turn of the century, as seen from a unique perspective.

    When Mukasa visited the British Museum not long after arriving in the metropolis, he admired the displays of “wonderful things of long ago”. He explains to his readers that these items are stored behind glass so visitors cannot touch them. It’s a fact that becomes particularly pertinent when he comes across several Ugandan artefacts donated to the museum by British travellers:

    We saw different articles from our country; some had been brought by Sir H. H. Johnston, who had given a great many things, and others by other Englishmen … the Rev. R. P. Ashe had given a great many, and others too had given things from our country of Uganda.

    It is a powerful image: the Ugandan men standing in a British institution looking at their own indigenous culture through a glass. The encounter speaks directly to contemporary debates about museum collections and the need for inclusive cultural spaces.

    Both Mukasa and Seacole, as people of colour and colonial subjects, articulate feelings of belonging and unbelonging in the metropolitan centre. They find much to admire in British culture and society while also acknowledging the fact of racial marginalisation.

    As such, they give historical and literary expression to the affects of mobility, migration and multiculturalism. As professor of global literatures Ruvani Ranasinha argues, current debates on citizenship rights, migration policy, what constitutes “Englishness” and multiculturalism were prompted and anticipated by the presence of colonial subjects within Britain over a century ago.

    Ignatius Sancho by Thomas Gainsborough (1768).
    National Gallery of Canada

    In a 2019 paper, he explains that “Britain was always ‘multicultural’ even before multiculturalism was theorised: multicultural in terms of a sense of (un)belonging, a redrawing of culturally and racially defined borders and remapping of British identities”. And so, Ranashina notes, we must do more than simply acknowledge the historical presence of marginalised people and start engaging with diverse cultural contributions.

    This is vital because an inclusive canon more accurately represents the multiple stories that make up English literary history.

    It also makes important critical and cultural contributions to the creation of an inclusive society today. This is acknowledged by actor and writer Paterson Joseph who recently fictionalised the letters of Ignatius Sancho, a writer and composer, who was born on a slave ship crossing the Atlantic Ocean:

    “I was once timid about my place here in the UK, but researching Sancho’s story … has given me a deep sense of belonging, of a shared history with a nation that sometimes ignores, sometimes rejects, my people’s right to an equal role in its storytelling.”

    Éadaoin Agnew receives funding from AHRC for the Victorian Diversities Research Network https://victoriandiversities.co.uk

    – ref. Historical films and TV shows are embracing diversity – but real historical voices are still overlooked – https://theconversation.com/historical-films-and-tv-shows-are-embracing-diversity-but-real-historical-voices-are-still-overlooked-253191

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Three strategies to help European carmakers regain their edge

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesco Grillo, Academic Fellow, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University

    sylv1rob1/Shutterstock

    Even before US president Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, European automakers had been facing a multitude of challenges. Sales have slumped and manufacturers face rising costs, while Chinese rivals have rapidly been gaining market share.

    The day before the tariffs announcement, the combined market capitalisation of Europe’s five major automakers (Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Renault) stood at around US$212 billion (£159 billion). This total is less than a quarter of the value of Tesla alone.

    Yet the five European giants sell 25 million vehicles annually, accounting for a third of all cars purchased worldwide. Tesla, despite losing half of its market value since the beginning of the year, only just makes the top 15 automakers. It sells less than a third of what Stellantis alone delivers.

    This essentially means that financial markets no longer believe that European carmakers can make money out of a business they have been dominating for almost a century.

    The crisis does, in fact, stem from the obsolescence of the technology upon which the entire industrial model of the car was built.

    The invention of German engineer Karl Benz, later made widely accessible to millions of consumers by American entrepreneur Henry Ford, was far more than just a product.

    Cars enabled people to go anywhere whenever they wanted. This fuelled the last industrial revolution and one of the greatest leaps in human prosperity.

    However, more than 100 years after the first assembly lines appeared in Detroit, the dream has stalled. In a world where economic and environmental resources are increasingly scarce, an entire industrial model looks unsustainable.

    Why? Because it became inefficient.

    A privately owned car is used for only 5% of its potential lifetime. It remains idle and occupying valuable parking space for the other 95%. It carries an average of just 1.2 passengers, utilising only a quarter of its capacity.

    If an alien were to observe human civilisation, it might conclude that humans have lost that special ability that made them so different from all other species: to do more with less.

    Additionally, around 80% of cars are still powered by fossil fuels that cost significantly more than electricity per mile. This is despite economies of scale that are bringing down the price of purchasing a plug-in electric vehicle (EV).

    These issues have hit the European – and also the US – automotive industries hard. These regions were the birthplace of the industry itself. For CEOs and policymakers, who often belong to a generation (and a gender) steeped in traditional automotive culture, finding solutions has proven difficult. However, there could be a clear path forward.

    Here are three ideas to bring the European automotive industry in the 21st century.

    1. Become more competitive by attracting EV rivals

    China has already secured a technological advantage in this field – similar to the dominance once held by Volkswagen when it first established factories in Shanghai.

    In the same week when BYD announced that it has surpassed Tesla in terms of revenues of electric cars, the Chinese automaker also revealed that it had developed a system to charge an electric car with 400km (249 miles) of range in five minutes.

    BYD and other Chinese manufacturers export less than 10% of their products to the EU. They will survive any import duty that the EU imposes on them. Instead of fearing Chinese automakers, the EU should entice them to establish production facilities in the bloc, encouraging competition and innovation within its borders.

    2. Sell services and symbols

    New business models should focus on selling services as well as objects. This trend is prevailing in many industries, and carmakers should embrace it to develop partnerships with organisations that can make driving a less wasteful experience. Autonomous driving technology, for example, offers the chance to take vehicle-sharing to a much wider customer base.

    And European automakers should trade on their history as a symbol of expertise and longevity. This is not so different to what camera-maker Kodak has done to survive to the digital revolution. It is notable that Ferrari is now worth more than its bigger sister company Stellantis.

    3. Governments must get involved

    For the transformation to succeed, governments must play a role. It is not about propping up the European industry with subsidies or treating cars as the new steel industry. Rather, it is about designing and implementing the infrastructure that the future of mobility requires.

    The Fiat Topolino brought private transport to the masses.
    Dan74/Shutterstock

    A century ago, European cities were completely restructured to transition from horse-drawn carriages to the first Fiat Topolinos rolling out of the Mirafiori factory.

    Today, we need new charging networks and dedicated lanes for electric and autonomous vehicles. This is already happening in China clearly showing that without a significant modernisation of infrastructure innovation does not happen.

    The impact of tariffs

    Trump’s tariffs will hurt – badly. Volkswagen, which exports two thirds of its production outside western Europe, will suffer most after assuming that its “people’s cars” could be sold indiscriminately to different populations.

    However, the era of tariffs should serve as a wake-up call rather than a death sentence. The European automotive sector must use this challenge to reinvent itself, just as it did in the post-war era.

    In the 1960s, countries like Italy and France combined industrial strategy of the likes of Fiat and Renault with a vision of the future. This alignment of industrial ambition and pragmatic policymaking was a key part of post-war reconstruction.

    Now European leaders must embrace the same spirit of bold, forward-thinking innovation to build a transport system that is capable of setting global standards. The automotive crisis is not just an industry-specific issue. It demands a revival of both vision and pragmatism.

    Francesco Grillo is affiliated with Vision, an independent European Think Tank. Vision is the convenor of two global conferences: on “the Europe of the Future” (in Siena) and on “global governance of climate change” (in Trento).

    – ref. Three strategies to help European carmakers regain their edge – https://theconversation.com/three-strategies-to-help-european-carmakers-regain-their-edge-255259

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How dogs and cats are evolving to look alike and why it’s humans’ fault – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Grace Carroll, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    Africa Studio/Shutterstock

    Domestication has made cats and dogs more diverse, but also curiously alike – with serious implications for their health and welfare, new research shows.

    At first glance, Persian cats and pugs don’t seem like they’d have much in common. One’s a cat, the other’s a dog, separated by 50 million years of evolution. But when evolutionary biologist Abby Grace Drake and her colleagues scanned 1,810 skulls of cats, dogs and their wild relatives, they found something strange. Despite their distant histories, many breeds of cats and dogs show striking similarity in skull shape.

    In evolutionary biology, divergence is a common process. In simple terms, divergence is where two organisms that share a common ancestry become increasingly different over time, while convergence means becoming more similar. As populations of animals split and adapt to different environments, they gradually develop new traits, a process known as divergent evolution.

    This is one of the main ways new species form different traits, causing populations to evolve along separate paths. But sometimes, evolution can take a different direction. Convergence happens when unrelated species, shaped by similar pressures, independently evolve similar features.

    In the case of domestic cats, dogs and many other domesticated species, intentional and unintentional selection by humans seems to have created convergence, accidentally steering different species toward similar traits.

    Despite a long history of evolutionary separation, flat-faced breeds like the Persian cat and pugs share similar skull structures.

    Persian cats have a similar skull structure to pugs.
    Zanna Pesnina/Shutterstock

    To investigate how far domestication has reshaped skull structure, Drake and her colleagues analysed 3D scans of skulls from museum specimens, veterinary schools and digital archives. Their dataset included domestic cats such as Siamese, Maine coon and Persian breeds, as well as over 100 dog breeds from short-muzzled dogs like pugs, to long-muzzled breeds like collies.

    Their findings showed that domestication has not only increased skull shape diversity beyond that of wolves and wildcats, but also led some cat and dog breeds to resemble one another, with convergence towards either long or flat faces. Wild canids (the group of animals that includes dogs, wolves, foxes and jackals) tend to share a similar elongated skull, while wild felids (the group of animals that includes domestic cats, lions, tigers and jaguars) show more natural variation.

    Yet domestic breeds of both species now span a more extreme range at both ends of the scale. This trend can be seen in the emergence of cats bred to resemble XL bully dogs.

    Domestication has long shown that when humans intervene, even distantly related species can end up looking, and sometimes suffering, in similar ways.

    Selective breeding has exaggerated traits across species. Many other human-made changes can push animals beyond what their bodies can naturally support. For instance, some chickens bred for their meat carry 30% of their body weight in breast muscle, which often results in heart and lung problems.

    The human preference for flat-faced pets taps into some of our most fundamental instincts. Humans are hard-wired to respond to infant features like rounded heads, small noses and large, low set eyes. These traits, which are exaggerated in many flat-faced cat and dog breeds, mimic the appearance of human babies.

    Of all species, humans are among the most altricial, meaning that we are born helpless and dependent on caregivers for survival, a trait we share with puppies and kittens. In contrast, precocial animals are able to see, hear, stand and move shortly after birth. Because human infants rely so heavily upon adult care, evolution has shaped us to be sensitive to signals of vulnerability and need.

    These signals like the rounded cheeks and wide eyes of babies, are known as social releasers. They trigger caregiving behaviour in adults, from speaking in higher-pitched tones to offering parental care.

    Herring gulls (a type of seagull) are an example of this in non-human animals. Their chicks instinctively peck at a red spot on the parent’s beak, which triggers the adult to regurgitate food. This red spot acts as a social releaser, ensuring the chick’s needs are met at the right time. In a similar way, domesticated animals have effectively hijacked ancient caregiving mechanisms evolved for our own offspring.

    These traits may give pets an advantage in soliciting human care and attention, but they come at a cost.

    The UK government commissions its Animal Welfare Committee to provide independent expert advice on emerging animal welfare concerns. In reports they produced in 2024, the committee raised serious concerns about the effect of selective breeding in both cats and dogs.

    The reports highlighted that breeding for extreme physical traits, like flat faces and exaggerated skull shapes, has led to widespread health problems, including breathing difficulties, neurological conditions and birth complications.

    The committee argues that animals with severe hereditary health issues should no longer be used for breeding, and calls for tougher regulation of breeders. Without these reforms, many popular breeds will continue to suffer from preventable, life-limiting conditions.

    Selective breeding has shown how easily humans can bend nature to their preferences, and how quickly millions of years of evolutionary separation can be overridden by a few decades of artificial selection.

    In choosing pets that mimic the faces of our own infants, we have, often unwittingly, selected for traits that harm the animals. Understanding the forces that drive convergence between species is a reminder that we play a powerful and sometimes dangerous role in shaping it.

    Grace Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How dogs and cats are evolving to look alike and why it’s humans’ fault – new research – https://theconversation.com/how-dogs-and-cats-are-evolving-to-look-alike-and-why-its-humans-fault-new-research-255260

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform enters local government for the first time with UK mayoral election wins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Nurse, Reader in Urban Planning, University of Liverpool

    The UK now has two regional mayors representing the Reform party, following English local elections on May 1. This is the first time anyone from the party has held a government position at any level.

    Andrea Jenkyns, formerly a Conservative government minister, is now the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire following an election win on May 1. She becomes the first Reform and Luke Campbell is now mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Both are new mayoralities, created as part of the government’s developing devolution plans.

    The creation of more mayoralties meant that, perhaps inevitably, the near-monopoly that Labour held on mayors after the 2024 local elections has ended. But with an unproven track record, it’s reasonable to ask what we might expect from the new reform mayors as they take office.

    Since the first devolution deals were signed back in 2014, English devolution has always been about the ability of local governments to convince Westminster to let go of power. The result has been that devolution deals have varied in strength across the country.

    In broad terms, city regions have tended to get more powers, while others get slightly less. This means that not every new regional (also known as metro) mayor will be a budding Andy Burnham – though in practice most can expect to have core powers of housing, transport and education. Over time we have seen how the existing mayors have sought to inhabit those powers in their own way, and bring about their own priorities.

    So, we now wait to see what that means for the new mayors as they take power. We already know that Jenkyns’ election manifesto touched upon the key powers the mayor will hold (transport, education and the economy) but her agenda on these was painted only in the broadest of brush strokes.

    For example, there were promises to upgrade major roads, and to secure more funding for transport – although achieving both would require a willing Labour government to play nice. More realistic promises include more frequent buses which better serve parts of what is a large rural area, and creating skills bodies to work with local employers.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Elsewhere, however, the manifesto delved into the realm of memes and bogeymen. For example, Jenkyns has proposed creating “DOGE Lincolnshire”, mirroring Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in the US.

    This promises to cut government waste and “ensure efficiency”. Yet, given the combined authority she heads was only constituted in February, it’s not quite clear what inefficiencies Jenkyns is referring to.

    Another pledge is to push back against net zero – something that Reform seems to be using as their protest lodestar now that Brexit is no longer fertile feeding ground. Here, the policies seem to be to fight against national government policy on net-zero rather than anything really specific.

    Playing nicely with central government

    A regional mayor’s fate often hinges on their ability to interact effectively with central government – either by trying to secure concessions from it, or resisting it. Here, it will be very interesting to watch how Jenkyns, Campbell and the new Conservative mayor of Cambridge and Peterborough, Paul Bristow, assimilate.

    They are now members of the Council of the Regions – which for the last 12 months has been largely a cosy cabal of Labour mayors (and Tory Ben Houchen).

    How will Reform mayors – and Jenkyns in particular do business with the others? She is known as a disruptor so it could change the dynamic significantly.

    English local government is littered with examples of national government visiting retribution on local authorities for perceived transgressions. For example, most famously, Margaret Thatcher’s government abolished the Metropolitan Councils in 1986 for getting a bit too big for their boots. While there is no suggestion that will happen this time, current devolution deals are heavily premised on trust and ability to work with government.

    The other issue will be how what started as a protest party deals with the minutiae of governing. Mario Cuomo, a former governor of New York, once famously said that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Sometimes, however, local government can be about the grammar – dealing with those minor details.

    I remember interviewing a local councillor who once told me most of the time people want to talk about dog poo and bins. Equally, things like potholes are shown to be what residents want to see fixed.

    From now on, Jenkyns and other reform-led councils will have a record that they will have to defend. Ultimately, while a manifesto that is half-built on memes might grab attention on election day, it probably isn’t going to make the buses run on time.

    Alex Nurse receives funding from the ESRC.

    – ref. Reform enters local government for the first time with UK mayoral election wins – https://theconversation.com/reform-enters-local-government-for-the-first-time-with-uk-mayoral-election-wins-255731

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bingeable comedy, a Jim Crow-era vampire thriller and William Morris mania – what to watch, read and do this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Naomi Joseph, Arts + Culture Editor

    I recently bought a Now TV subscription because we are in prime prestige TV season and I needed it to watch The White Lotus and The Last of Us. Deep into those big, confronting shows (which are brilliant but, let’s be honest, a lot), I was looking for something that was comforting and easy. If this is what you are also craving right now, I could not recommend Hacks more.

    Hacks is a whip-smart and hilarious show with 30-minute episodes. It follows Ava Daniels (Hannah Einbinder), an edgy comedy writer who isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and spiky Las Vegas comedy veteran Deborah Vance (Jean Smart). This pair are shoved together by their shared manager when Ava is fired from a writing gig for making an off-colour joke on social media, and Deborah loses her headline slot on the Vegas strip as the city moves on without her.

    The trailer for season four of Hacks.

    Since its first season, Hacks has provided insightful commentary on the male-dominated world of comedy. The push and pull relationship between Ava and Deborah is hilarious as they clash over generational differences on everything from comedy to sexuality. The show has been rightly lauded for its brilliant writing, which manages to go all the way up to the line without being hateful – a skill many comedians who argue that it’s hard to make comedy in our politically correct age could learn from.

    Now in its fourth season, our reviewer, Jacqueline Ristola, an expert in the media industry and comedy, says Hacks has managed to maintain the quality (and hilarity) while finding new ground to explore women’s precarious place in the entertainment industry.



    Read more:
    Hacks season four tackles late-night TV – and is as funny and perceptive as ever

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    If you are in the mood for something a bit moodier and serious, then Sinners might be for you. The film follows twin brothers Smoke and Stack (both played by Michael B. Jordan) who have returned home to Mississippi in an attempt to leave their troubles behind. What they find waiting for them, however, is much worse.

    Sinners is set in Jim Crow-era Mississippi, a time of harsh segregation and racial injustice. While the horrors of this period are certainly enough to scare anyone, director Ryan Coogler has decided to tell a story grounded in supernatural evil. Vampires aside, there is a lot of history in Sinners too. Criminology expert Rachel Stuart found it interesting how the real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression informed the film.



    Read more:
    Sinners: how real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression inform the film

    The trailer for Sinners.

    If you’re looking for something to read, we recommend the memoir Red Pockets. In this piece, Alice Mah, a professor in urban and environmental studies, writes about why she was inspired to create this book after a personal detour to her ancestral village she took while on a research trip.

    In Red Pockets, Mah chronicles her journey from the rice villages of south China back to postindustrial England. Her research on pollution leads to growing eco-anxiety, and paired with this trip leaves her in spiritual crisis. Part memoir, part cultural history and environmental exploration, this book explores what we owe our ancestors and also future generations.



    Read more:
    Travelling to my ancestral home in China unearthed tragedy tinged by the climate crisis – it inspired me to write Red Pockets

    Inky worlds and popular patterns

    Also moody and brilliant is the Victor Hugo exhibition at the Royal Academy in London. I did not know that the French writer was an avid artist, and this exhibition is a wonderful and rare opportunity to gaze into the dark and surreal world of the mind behind Les Misérables and The Hunchback of Notre Dame.

    Hugo’s inky paintings and drawings of townscapes and watery underworlds invoke a sort of nightmarish and apocalyptic reality. The low lighting in which these extremely fragile works must be kept adds to the whole foreboding atmosphere. The exhibition’s title comes from Van Gogh’s opinion of Hugo’s work as “astonishing things”, and they really are. Our review, expert in fine art Martin Lang, found “the sense of uncertainty to feel oddly relevant to today”.



    Read more:
    Astonishing Things: The Drawings of Victor Hugo at the Royal Academy is dark and brilliant

    Another man whose art has had enduring appeal is designer William Morris. Most people probably have or know of someone who owns something adorned with one of his hypnotising patterns. His work has remained incredibly popular since he first started producing it in the 1860s. A new exhibition at the William Morris exhibition, Morris Mania: How Britain’s Greatest Designer Went Viral, explores how his work proliferated to such a degree.

    While you may be able to spot a Morris, you might not know much about the man. He was a fervent socialist who championed a principle of handmade production that didn’t chime with the Victorian era’s focus on industrial “progress”. These ideals sit in opposition to how his work has come to be used today.

    Our reviewer, an expert in applied art, found that the exhibition was sensitive to this, championing “ethical and bespoke production, while confronting the darker currents that move objects around our world”.



    Read more:
    William Morris: new exhibition reveals how Britain’s greatest designer went viral

    – ref. Bingeable comedy, a Jim Crow-era vampire thriller and William Morris mania – what to watch, read and do this week – https://theconversation.com/bingeable-comedy-a-jim-crow-era-vampire-thriller-and-william-morris-mania-what-to-watch-read-and-do-this-week-255742

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Perfect storm of tech bros, foreign interference and disinformation is an urgent threat to press freedom

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Felle, Associate Professor of Journalism, University of Galway

    Media freedom has long been essential to healthy democracy. It is the oxygen that fuels informed debate, exposes corruption and holds power to account. But around the world, that freedom is under sustained attack.

    The actions of populist political elites, tech billionaires and foreign disinformation campaigns are reinforcing one another. This is weakening independent journalism and reshaping the global public sphere.

    This convergence was on full display at US president Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration. The presence of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg signalled that the tech elite are no longer simply disruptors. They are increasingly aligned with populist politics, a project openly hostile to independent journalism and democratic accountability.

    Nowhere is this clearer than on X (formerly Twitter). Musk’s takeover has transformed the platform into a breeding ground for conspiracy theories and misinformation, while systematically undermining the credibility of established media outlets. Meta’s decision to abandon factchecking political content in the US also marks a dangerous retreat from even the minimal efforts once made to curb disinformation.

    At its core, journalism’s role is simple but essential: to inform the public and hold power to account. Independent media – outlets free from government, political, or corporate control – are essential to democracy. They play a critical role in exposing corruption, amplifying marginalised voices, scrutinising government decisions and challenging abuses of power.

    When media organisations are weakened, this essential accountability collapses – allowing governments, politicians and corporations to operate unchecked. Minorities and vulnerable groups suffer most when no one is left to shine a light on abuse or discrimination. Human rights violations go unreported. Misinformation and rumour fill the void.

    That is precisely what is happening, not just in fragile states but in established democracies. Populist leaders have attacked journalists as enemies of the people and smeared media outlets that challenge them.

    Donald Trump infamously branded critical coverage as “fake news”. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro vilified journalists who investigated corruption and environmental crimes. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has systematically dismantled media independence. Slovakia’s Robert Fico called journalists “bloodthirsty bastards” and “possessed by the devil”.

    These leaders know that controlling the narrative is key to holding power. Discrediting the media is the first step.

    One of the clearest recent examples is the Trump administration’s shuttering of Voice of America (VOA). This move to silence a broadcaster that had promoted press freedom for over 80 years has been celebrated by authoritarian regimes. China’s state media mocked VOA as “discarded like a dirty rag”.

    Foreign threats

    What makes this moment uniquely dangerous is that these political attacks are now supercharged by technology platforms retreating from accountability, and exploited by hostile foreign powers.

    The latest European External Action Service (EEAS) Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Threat Report paints a stark picture of how disinformation is used as a strategic weapon to weaken democracies from within.

    In 2024, the EEAS – the diplomatic service of the European Union – detected
    record levels of foreign manipulation, particularly from Russia and China. The EEAS recorded more than 500 coordinated manipulation campaigns targeting 90 countries.

    These included AI-generated deepfake videos impersonating European politicians, such as a fabricated video of Moldova’s president endorsing a pro-Russian party.

    Bot networks were deployed to amplify false narratives about migration and inflation, distorting online discourse and inflaming social divisions. Impersonation tactics cloning legitimate news websites like Le Monde and German media were used to disseminate pro-Kremlin disinformation. All these efforts were aimed at undermining trust in democratic institutions, inflaming social divisions and creating confusion.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Disinformation has become a standard geopolitical weapon, often used as a precursor to military or economic action. In the lead-up to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia conducted a sustained disinformation campaign. Fabricated videos and false flag operations portrayed Ukraine as the aggressor to justify military action.

    Similarly, during the 2020-21 border clashes with India, China spread disinformation downplaying its military build-up while casting India as the instigator.

    Russia has also used disinformation to pursue economic goals, notably by spreading falsehoods about European renewable energy and gas supply stability, to influence energy policy and sow public doubt about the EU’s energy independence strategy.

    While this happens, platforms like Meta and X are retreating from content moderation and fact-checking. The result is a perfect storm where domestic populism, platform failure and foreign manipulation reinforce one another. Platforms like X have become the key battleground, accounting for 88% of detected disinformation activity.

    What’s at stake – and what must change

    As these threats grow, the traditional media model is collapsing. Advertising revenue – once the lifeblood of newspapers, radio, and television – has shifted almost entirely to digital platforms. Local newsrooms are closing, while investigative journalism is increasingly rare, expensive and risky.

    In the UK, more than 320 local papers have closed since 2009. Titles like the Evening Standard ended daily print in 2024 due to plummeting ad revenues. Across Europe, rising news deserts and newsroom cuts are weakening media’s democratic role.

    In the US, things are even worse – 3,200 newspapers have closed since 2005. More than half of all counties now have little or no local news coverage.

    As social media platforms abandon even basic content moderation, they create vast, ungoverned digital spaces where bad actors dominate the conversation.

    Into this gap flood social media influencers, partisan outlets and state-backed propaganda. The result is a fractured, polarised information ecosystem. Facts struggle to compete with viral misinformation and coordinated disinformation campaigns.

    News consumers must navigate a sea of misinformation and propaganda.
    Olezzo/Shutterstock

    In the end, it is citizens who pay the price, bombarded by propaganda and adrift in a sea of misinformation. This is not just a media problem, it is a fundamental threat to democracy itself. Without independent journalism, there is no one left to ask difficult questions, expose wrongdoing or defend the public interest.

    Protecting media freedom must now be treated as a democratic priority, as essential as free and fair elections or an independent judiciary. Governments need to regulate tech platforms effectively, enforcing transparency over algorithms and bringing in meaningful protections against disinformation.

    Public investment in journalism is critical to ensure the press can survive and hold power to account. Democracies must coordinate efforts to counter foreign information manipulation, and protect journalists facing harassment and threats from authoritarian regimes.

    The future of democratic accountability now depends on whether governments, regulators and the media can reclaim this space before it is lost entirely. Above all, this means recognising that journalism is not a luxury or a relic. It is a vital public good.

    Tom Felle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Perfect storm of tech bros, foreign interference and disinformation is an urgent threat to press freedom – https://theconversation.com/perfect-storm-of-tech-bros-foreign-interference-and-disinformation-is-an-urgent-threat-to-press-freedom-252986

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform enters government for the first time with mayoral election wins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Nurse, Reader in Urban Planning, University of Liverpool

    The UK now has two regional mayors representing the Reform party, following English local elections on May 1. This is the first time anyone from the party has held a government position at any level.

    Andrea Jenkyns, formerly a Conservative government minister, is now the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire following an election win on May 1. She becomes the first Reform and Luke Campbell is now mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Both are new mayoralities, created as part of the government’s developing devolution plans.

    The creation of more mayoralties meant that, perhaps inevitably, the near-monopoly that Labour held on mayors after the 2024 local elections has ended. But with an unproven track record, it’s reasonable to ask what we might expect from the new reform mayors as they take office.

    Since the first devolution deals were signed back in 2014, English devolution has always been about the ability of local governments to convince Westminster to let go of power. The result has been that devolution deals have varied in strength across the country.

    In broad terms, city regions have tended to get more powers, while others get slightly less. This means that not every new regional (also known as metro) mayor will be a budding Andy Burnham – though in practice most can expect to have core powers of housing, transport and education. Over time we have seen how the existing mayors have sought to inhabit those powers in their own way, and bring about their own priorities.

    So, we now wait to see what that means for the new mayors as they take power. We already know that Jenkyns’ election manifesto touched upon the key powers the mayor will hold (transport, education and the economy) but her agenda on these was painted only in the broadest of brush strokes.

    For example, there were promises to upgrade major roads, and to secure more funding for transport – although achieving both would require a willing Labour government to play nice. More realistic promises include more frequent buses which better serve parts of what is a large rural area, and creating skills bodies to work with local employers.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Elsewhere, however, the manifesto delved into the realm of memes and bogeymen. For example, Jenkyns has proposed creating “DOGE Lincolnshire”, mirroring Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in the US.

    This promises to cut government waste and “ensure efficiency”. Yet, given the combined authority she heads was only constituted in February, it’s not quite clear what inefficiencies Jenkyns is referring to.

    Another pledge is to push back against net zero – something that Reform seems to be using as their protest lodestar now that Brexit is no longer fertile feeding ground. Here, the policies seem to be to fight against national government policy on net-zero rather than anything really specific.

    Playing nicely with central government

    A regional mayor’s fate often hinges on their ability to interact effectively with central government – either by trying to secure concessions from it, or resisting it. Here, it will be very interesting to watch how Jenkyns, Campbell and the new Conservative mayor of Cambridge and Peterborough, Paul Bristow, assimilate.

    They are now members of the Council of the Regions – which for the last 12 months has been largely a cosy cabal of Labour mayors (and Tory Ben Houchen).

    How will Reform mayors – and Jenkyns in particular do business with the others? She is known as a disruptor so it could change the dynamic significantly.

    English local government is littered with examples of national government visiting retribution on local authorities for perceived transgressions. For example, most famously, Margaret Thatcher’s government abolished the Metropolitan Councils in 1986 for getting a bit too big for their boots. While there is no suggestion that will happen this time, current devolution deals are heavily premised on trust and ability to work with government.

    The other issue will be how what started as a protest party deals with the minutiae of governing. Mario Cuomo, a former governor of New York, once famously said that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Sometimes, however, local government can be about the grammar – dealing with those minor details.

    I remember interviewing a local councillor who once told me most of the time people want to talk about dog poo and bins. Equally, things like potholes are shown to be what residents want to see fixed.

    From now on, Jenkyns and other reform-led councils will have a record that they will have to defend. Ultimately, while a manifesto that is half-built on memes might grab attention on election day, it probably isn’t going to make the buses run on time.

    Alex Nurse receives funding from the ESRC.

    – ref. Reform enters government for the first time with mayoral election wins – https://theconversation.com/reform-enters-government-for-the-first-time-with-mayoral-election-wins-255731

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and many GOP lawmakers want to end all funding for NPR and PBS − unraveling a US public media system that took a century to build

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Josh Shepperd, Associate Professor of Media Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

    Cast members of the children’s television show ‘Sesame Street’ pose with Big Bird, Cookie Monster, Grover, Ernie, Bert and Oscar the Grouch in 1969. Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    The Trump administration’s drive to slash government spending on everything from the arts to cancer research also includes efforts to carry through on the Republican Party’s long-standing goal of ending federal funding for NPR, the nation’s public radio network, and PBS, its television counterpart.

    Across the country, 1,500 independent stations affiliated with NPR and PBS air shows such as “Morning Edition,” “Marketplace,” “PBS NewsHour,” “Frontline” and “Nova.” Some 43 million people tune into public radio every week, and over 130 million watch PBS every year, according to the networks.

    Public media stations air local news and, when necessary, emergency information. Most also feature regional, national and global coverage of arts and culture. With commercial media divesting from local news reporting, audiences that have long relied on public media to inform their communities are even more dependent now on that service, as are audiences that got their local news from commercial sources.

    Investigating public media

    Public media is also under attack from the Republican majority in Congress and facing scrutiny from the Federal Communications Commission, the government agency that regulates media.

    Brendan Carr, whom President Donald Trump appointed to lead the FCC, helped draft Project 2025. That’s the conservative blueprint that Trump distanced himself from during the 2024 campaign but has since embraced.

    As proposed in Project 2025, the FCC is examining NPR’s approach to underwriting. Through underwriting, financial support from sponsors is acknowledged on air without asking audiences to form an opinion about a product or make a specific purchase.

    The FCC is investigating whether those messages on NPR and PBS “cross the line into prohibited commercial advertisements.”

    The top executives of NPR and PBS have denied that their underwriting practices violate any regulations or laws.

    At the same time, House Republicans are holding hearings regarding what they say is public media’s “liberal bias.” Their attention is primarily directed at the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the nonprofit corporation that stewards federal money that Congress appropriates for NPR and PBS.

    And in a separate move, Trump demanded that CPB “cancel existing direct funding to the maximum extent allowed by law” and “decline to provide future funding” in an executive order issued on May 1, 2025. Trump’s order accused NPR and PBS of bias in its “portrayal of current events to taxpaying citizens.”

    I’m a media historian who wrote a book about the origins of public media in the U.S. and how NPR and PBS contribute to democratic participation. Both networks are designed to provide equal access to information for every listener and viewer.

    In my view, as these efforts to investigate and end the funding of public media proceed, it’s worth revisiting why the Corporation for Public Broadcasting was founded in the first place and to understand how it contributes to equal access to information today.

    Beginning with education

    U.S. public media took root in the 1920s, when public universities built radio stations so that rural communities could receive better access to the kind of education available in cities.

    The first programs consisted of professors and radio hosts giving lectures about history, finance and other subjects such as cooking, quilting and music appreciation.

    Some of those professors believed so strongly in democratic access to media that they built radio stations with their own hands, including one at the University of Wisconsin. In other cases, professors experimented with performing live drama. Ohio State University broadcast the first educational radio Shakespeare performances in the late 1920s.

    Many people liked the programming enough to tune in, but the quality of early educational broadcast experiments was inconsistent. Some professors didn’t understand how to talk with audiences and were criticized for their monotone deliveries.

    Amid threats to its federal funding, PBS reports on the history of U.S. public media.

    Running the ‘bicycle network’

    Interest in improving the quality of educational radio grew once radio ownership became more widespread. Over 500 U.S. stations were on the air in 1940. By 1945, when World War II ended, over 95% of families owned radio receivers.

    Every listener could take correspondence classes. And educators started to research how to make learning through the radio more compelling and fun.

    By the late 1940s, colleges and universities started to pay better attention to making education on the radio both entertaining and informative. They traded their best programs all around the country, through a system they called the “bicycle network.”

    Once national distribution was in place, producers of educational radio and TV shows came to an agreement about their best programs through a group called the National Association of Educational Broadcasters. They landed on formulas now associated with NPR and PBS. Home economics instruction evolved into cooking shows. Interviews with professors became public affairs programs.

    Radio stations started to combine different kinds of programs that spanned an entire school day. A half-hour children’s comedy show now weaved math, storytelling, music and civics. This format laid some of the groundwork for “Sesame Street.”

    In the 1950s a philosophy of public media emerged.

    The National Association of Educational Broadcasters’ members believed that everyone should have equal access to education no matter where they lived. They argued that information they presented should be held to rigorous standards, such as fact-checking and even peer review, the academic practice of verifying research validity.

    Educational broadcasters aired programs for all kinds of audiences, including in communities not served by commercial media.

    To stay focused on their mission, educational broadcasters decided to bar taking money from corporate advertisers. This meant that most money came from state and local governments instead of businesses.

    State authorities were able to make public announcements, quickly report emergencies and provide free airtime for political candidates. State lawmakers also thought that these media outlets could help their constituents learn trades at their own pace.

    Phasing in government funding

    Using broadcasting to provide equal access to education required a lot of new infrastructure.

    By the late 1950s the federal government started to fund the construction of radio towers, transmitters and buildings so that every person could access educational programs via broadcasts. President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a law in 1958 that funded educational access because it could contribute to national defense.

    Nearly a decade later, in 1967, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Public Broadcasting Act. That law guaranteed a permanent stream of government funding for educational radio and television. Congress had pivoted from “education” to “public” broadcasting as the medium incorporated a wider array of programs, including BBC shows from the U.K.

    PBS first went live in 1970, and NPR’s first broadcast aired in 1971.

    To buffer NPR and PBS from the influence of political parties and commercial sponsors, the law called for the creation of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

    In addition to receiving and then disbursing to NPR and PBS the federal funds that Congress appropriates for public media, the CPB provides additional grants to stations across the country. Notably, federal funds help to pay for maintaining equipment and studios where public media programs are taped. That is, most government funding for public media is dedicated to maintaining the technology necessary to continue with its mission to provide equal access.

    The rest of the federal money supports the same program development and audience engagement research that started with the National Association of Educational Broadcasters’ “bicycle network.”

    NPR has gotten more sophisticated since it first went on the air in 1971, as CBS News reports.

    Establishing a strong track record

    The CPB model has succeeded by many measures. About 99% of Americans have access to public media through their television sets, car radios, computers and other devices.

    The CPB received $535 million in government funding in the 2025 fiscal year, equal to roughly $1.60 per American. About 70% of that money supports local radio and television stations. Public media costs taxpayers far more elsewhere. A 2022 study found that Germany spends around $142 per person, the U.K. spends $81, and Canada spends over $26 per year.

    The U.S. system is also unusual in that the local affiliates are nonprofits that have to pay for the NPR and PBS programs they run. Like the CPB, NPR and PBS are independent nonprofits, not government agencies.

    Rather than having the federal government foot the whole bill, in the U.S. public media also relies on $1.3 billion in annual charitable donations from viewers, listeners, corporations and foundations. Of that, public media receives $170 million in underwriting, according to a 2023 report.

    But should the federal government end all federal funding for the CPB, their NPR- and PBS-affiliated stations would have more trouble buying, repairing and replacing the transmitters, antennas and websites required to broadcast their programs.

    Losing access to local news

    The CPB has already sued the Trump administration over its attempt to oust three of its board members. The CPB asserts that because it is an independent organization and not a federal agency, the federal government can’t dictate who serves on its board. Trump’s executive order could also be challenged in court. And, as is the case with all executive orders, any future administration could rescind it.

    Most likely, the original target audience of educational radio − rural communities − would feel the biggest impact if the Trump administration does end federal funding of NPR and PBS. That’s because rural areas have few alternatives now that local journalism has been hit hard by corporate cuts to newsrooms.

    Public media’s first century inspired an alternative approach to media other than producing programs that tobacco companies, automakers and other businesses would want to sponsor. How Congress, the FCC and the courts proceed today will influence public media’s reach and practices for the next century.

    Josh Shepperd is under contract to co-author an update of the history of public broadcasting for Current, public media’s trade journal, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Josh is not a paid employee or vendor of either institution.

    – ref. Trump and many GOP lawmakers want to end all funding for NPR and PBS − unraveling a US public media system that took a century to build – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-many-gop-lawmakers-want-to-end-all-funding-for-npr-and-pbs-unraveling-a-us-public-media-system-that-took-a-century-to-build-253206

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Women’s Health Initiative has shaped women’s health for over 30 years, but its future is uncertain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jean Wactawski-Wende, Professor of Public Health and Health Professions, University at Buffalo

    Women make up more than 50% of the population, yet before the 1990s they were largely excluded from health and medical research studies.

    To try to help correct this imbalance, in 1991 the National Institutes of Health launched a massive, long-term study called the Women’s Health Initiative, which is still running today. It is the largest, longest and most comprehensive study on women’s health ever conducted in the U.S. It also is one of the most productive studies in history, with more than 2,400 published scientific papers in leading medical journals.

    On April 20, 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services told the study’s lead investigators it plans to terminate much of the program’s funding and discontinue its regional center contracts. On April 24, after pushback from the medical community, HHS officials said the funding had been reinstated. But the reversal was never officially confirmed, so the study’s lead investigators – including me – remain concerned about its future.

    I am a public health researcher who has studied chronic disease prevention in women for nearly 40 years. I have been centrally involved with the Women’s Health Initiative since its inception and currently co-direct one of its four regional centers at the University at Buffalo.

    The project’s findings have shaped clinical practice, prevention strategies and public health policies across the U.S. and the world, particularly for older women. In my view, its loss would be a devastating blow to women’s health.

    An imperative to invest in women’s health

    The Women’s Health Initiative was established in response to a growing realization that very little medical research existed to inform health care that was specifically relevant to women. In the U.S. in the 1970s, for example, almost 40% of postmenopausal women were taking estrogen, but no large clinical trials had studied the risks and benefits. In 1985 an NIH task force outlined the need for long-term research on women’s health.

    Launched by Bernadine Healy, the first woman to serve as director of the NIH, the Women’s Health Initiative aimed to study ways to prevent heart disease, cancer and osteoporosis.

    About 42,000 women ages 78 to 108 remain active participants in the Women’s Health Initiative.
    Frazao Studio Latino/E+ via Getty Images

    Between 1993 and 1998, the project enrolled 161,808 postmenopausal women ages 50 to 79 to participate in four randomized clinical trials. Two of them investigated how menopausal hormone therapy affects the risk of heart disease, breast cancer, hip fractures and cognition. Another examined the effects of a low-fat, high-fiber diet on breast and colorectal cancers as well as heart disease. The fourth looked at whether taking calcium plus vitamin D supplements helps prevent hip fractures and colorectal cancer.

    Women could participate in just one or in multiple trials. More than 90,000 also took part in a long-term observational study that used medical records and surveys to probe the link between risk factors and disease outcomes over time.

    Clarifying the effects of hormone therapy

    Some of the most important findings from the Women’s Health Initiative addressed the effects of menopausal hormone therapy.

    The hormone therapy trial testing a combination of estrogen and progesterone was set to run until 2005. However, it was terminated early, in 2002, when results showed an increased risk in heart disease, stroke, blood clotting disorders and breast cancer, as well as cognitive decline and dementia. The trial of estrogen alone also raised safety concerns, though both types of therapy reduced the risk of bone fractures.

    After these findings were reported, menopausal hormone therapy prescriptions dropped sharply in the U.S. and worldwide. One study estimated that the decreased use of estrogen and progesterone therapy between 2002 and 2012 prevented as many as 126,000 breast cancer cases and 76,000 cardiovascular disease cases – and saved the U.S. an estimated US$35 billion in direct medical costs.

    Reanalyses of data from these studies over the past decade have provided a more nuanced clinical picture for safely using menopausal hormone therapy. They showed that the timing of treatment matters, and that when taken before age 60 or within 10 years of menopause, hormones have more limited risk.

    Defining clinical practice

    Although the Women’s Health Initiative’s four original clinical trials ended by 2005, researchers have continued to follow participants, collect new data and launch spinoff studies that shape health recommendations for women over 65.

    Almost a decade ago, for example, research at my institution and others found in a study of 6,500 women ages 63 to 99 that just 30 minutes of low to moderate physical activity was enough to significantly boost their health. The study led to changes in national public health guidelines. Subsequent studies are continuing to explore how physical activity affects aging and whether being less sedentary can protect women against heart disease.

    Bone health and preventing fractures have also been a major focus of the Women’s Health Initiative, with research helping to establish guidelines for osteoporosis screening and investigating the link between dietary protein intake and bone health.

    One of the Women’s Health Initiative’s biggest yields is its vast repository of health data collected annually from tens of thousands of women over more than 30 years. The data consists of survey responses on topics such as diet, physical activity and family history; information on major health outcomes such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer and cause of death, verified using medical records; and a trove of biological samples, including 5 million blood vials and genetic information from 50,000 participants.

    The Women’s Health Initiative set out to prevent heart disease, cancer and osteoporosis in menopausal women.

    Any researcher can access this repository to explore associations between blood biomarkers, disease outcomes, genes, lifestyle factors and other health features. More than 300 such studies are investigating health outcomes related to stroke, cancer, diabetes, eye diseases, mental health, physical frailty and more. Thirty are currently running.

    What does the future hold?

    In addition to data amassed by the Women’s Health Initiative until now, about 42,000 participants from all 50 states, now ages 78 to 108, are still actively contributing to the study. This cohort is a rare treasure: Very few studies have collected such detailed, long-term information on a broad group of women of this age. Meanwhile, the demographic of older women is growing quickly.

    Continuing to shed light on aging, disease risk and prevention in this population is vital. The questions guiding the project’s ongoing and planned research directly address the chronic diseases that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced as national priorities.

    So I hope that the Women’s Health Initiative can continue to generate discoveries that support women’s health well into the future.

    Jean Wactawski-Wende receives funding from the NIH.

    – ref. The Women’s Health Initiative has shaped women’s health for over 30 years, but its future is uncertain – https://theconversation.com/the-womens-health-initiative-has-shaped-womens-health-for-over-30-years-but-its-future-is-uncertain-255311

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A law seeks to protect children from sex offenders − 20 years later, the jury is still out

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Boaz Dvir, Associate Professor of Journalism, Penn State

    Mark Lunsford appears at a July 2005 rally in support of the Children’s Safety Act on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Before his sentencing in March 2025, a convicted child rapist asked for a judgment that would have set him free in 2027. The Kansas resident received 25 years with no chance of parole.

    The reason? Jessica’s Law, which Kansas lawmakers passed in 2006.

    Kansas was one of the first states to follow Florida’s initial enactment of Jessica’s Law 20 years ago in response to the rape and murder of 9-year-old Jessica “Jessie” Lunsford in Homosassa, Florida. Forty-four other states have followed, altering how America polices, punishes and paroles pedophiles.

    Although the law differs in some details from state to state, it generally directs judges to sentence people convicted of sex crimes involving children to a minimum of 25 years. Jessica’s Law also monitors offenders’ movements after prison and strives to keep them away from places where children congregate, such as schools and parks.

    Many policymakers, prosecutors, defense attorneys and judges have protested key aspects of the law. They are particularly opposed to its strict minimum sentencing guidelines, which they’ve described as oversimplified and counterproductive.

    Proponents, however, point to the law’s origins: Jessica’s February 2005 abduction, rape and murder by a repeat, convicted sex offender. They maintain the crime, which riveted the country for months and sent the third grader’s father, Mark, on a national child protection crusade, exposed deep-seated flaws in law enforcement and the legal system that made children around the country vulnerable to sexual assault.

    Jessica’s Law remains mostly intact throughout the country. But it has come under scrutiny and has undergone changes. As a journalism professor who directed a documentary about Lunsford’s efforts to convince politicians to pass the law that bears his daughter’s name, I’ve kept up with its trials and tribulations.

    Twenty years after Florida introduced the law, the jury is still out on whether America’s children are safer as a result.

    ‘Jessie’s Dad’

    In making “Jessie’s Dad,” I filmed Lunsford visiting state capitals and Capitol Hill and interviewed many of his allies and detractors. I also reviewed interrogation footage and newsreels, attended the trial of John Couey – Jessica’s killer – and pored over proposed and passed bills, court transcripts and police records.

    The resulting 2011 documentary highlights the law’s major perceived pros and cons.

    The most glaring of the legal system’s shortcomings before Jessica’s Law, according to Lunsford and other activist groups, was lax treatment by the police and courts. That, they said, allowed many sex offenders who target children to roam free.

    As Lunsford hopscotched from state to state to push for the law’s passage, he often noted that prior to raping and killing Jessie, Couey was convicted twice of molesting children but served only fractions of his sentences.

    “One time they gave him (Couey) a 10-year sentence; he did two years,” Lunsford told me. “One time, he (Couey) broke into a house and assaulted a child, and he would’ve gotten more time had he stolen their silverware.”

    Most of the states that have enacted Jessica’s Law direct judges to sentence child rapists to a minimum of 25 years in prison.

    Besides mandatory minimum sentencing, most states that have passed Jessica’s Law require sex-offender parolees to wear a GPS monitor − something Couey never did.

    Lunsford repeatedly pointed out that an electronic ankle bracelet, which tells the police the location of the person wearing it, could have led the police to Couey’s room in his sister’s trailer across the street from the Lunsford’s mobile home. That’s where Couey kept Jessie for three days before burying her alive in a backyard grave.

    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appears at an October 2006 news conference urging Californians to support Proposition 83, also known as ‘Jessica’s Law.’ The governor was joined by Mark Lunsford, left, father of Jessica Lunsford.
    Al Seib/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    ‘Romeo and Juliet’ provisions

    In 2007, soon after Ohio passed its version of the law, Lunsford’s son Josh faced felony charges for fondling his 14-year-old girlfriend. The girl’s mother, who disapproved of their relationship, turned him in as soon as he turned 18 and became an adult in the eyes of the legal system. Josh ended up being charged with a misdemeanor, to which he pleaded guilty. He served 10 days in jail and 12 months under supervised release.

    Reeling from this incident, the elder Lunsford advocated amending Jessica’s Law with so-called Romeo and Juliet provisions. These stipulations typically exempt most young adults from harsh sentencing when the age difference between them and their romantic teen partners adds up to fewer than four or five years.

    Pennsylvania, the second state after Florida to pass Jessica’s Law in 2006, became the first to add a Romeo and Juliet provision in 2011.

    Today, 44 states have likewise adopted similar provisions.

    Legal challenges, too, have revamped parts of Jessica’s Law in some states. In 2015, for instance, California’s Supreme Court ruled the law violated the U.S. Constitution by infringing offenders’ liberty and privacy.

    The law did so, the court determined, by universally ordering registered sex offenders to stay at least 2,000 feet away from schools and other places where children congregate. That meant they could not live within 2,000 feet of a school or places where children gathered.

    Prior to the ruling, the Jessica’s Law residency restriction left many of California’s registered sex offenders with few viable housing options. It thus forced scores of them onto the streets and contributed to the Golden State’s homelessness crisis.

    Critics have also noted it is difficult to monitor homeless pedophiles.

    Although the California Supreme Court ruling technically applied only to San Diego County, it has spurred other parts of the state to restrict residency on a case-by-case basis.

    Electronic tracking

    Another divisive Jessica’s Law stipulation, however, may be too complex to simply modify.

    When included in the original Florida law, electronic tracking appeared to hold great promise.

    Today, 38 additional states electronically monitor sex offenders. Yet many accused and paroled sex offenders wearing ankle bracelets have nonetheless harmed children.

    For instance, David Renz broke free of his GPS monitor in 2013 while awaiting a child pornography trial in New York and raped a fourth grader. He also killed the 10-year-old girl’s protector and school librarian, Lori Bresnahan.

    While others harmed children after cutting off their ankle bracelets, some, like Arkansas resident Leontarius Reed, committed sex crimes while wearing GPS devices. Reed was wearing the device after a previous nonsexual offense.

    Critics claim electronic monitoring numbs society into a misleading state of comfort. Others argue it’s better than losing track of sex offenders. They also say it deters crime and has saved countless lives.

    Despite the widespread adoption of Jessica’s Law, comprehensive research is still needed to measure its impact. Such a project would examine whether America’s children are truly safer now than they were on May 1, 2005.

    Boaz Dvir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A law seeks to protect children from sex offenders − 20 years later, the jury is still out – https://theconversation.com/a-law-seeks-to-protect-children-from-sex-offenders-20-years-later-the-jury-is-still-out-251762

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When presidents try to make peace: What Trump could learn from Teddy Roosevelt, Carter, Clinton and his own first term

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrew E. Busch, Professor and Associate Director, Institute of American Civics, University of Tennessee

    U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, center, introduces Russian and Japanese delegates during negotiations at the Portsmouth Peace Conference in Kittery, Maine, in August 1905. Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    Throughout his 2024 campaign for the presidency, Donald Trump made diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine-Russia war a major priority, suggesting that he could bring peace within “24 hours.” Even before Trump resumed office in January 2025, as president-elect he named envoys and held preliminary discussions with a variety of leaders.

    Since Trump returned to the White House, he has talked with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, met twice with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and made frequent public comments on the war.

    How does Trump’s mediation effort stack up historically? I’m a scholar of the presidency, and while we don’t yet know the outcome of the Trump-led negotiations, we do know one thing: He’s not conducting them in the ways presidents – including Trump himself – have conducted them in the past.

    President Donald Trump erupted at Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting on Feb. 28, 2025, angrily sending the Ukrainian leader out of the White House because he was ‘not ready’ for peace with Russia.
    Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    Some worked, others didn’t

    There are several examples of presidents who attempted to play a mediating role in foreign conflicts.

    Theodore Roosevelt: Roosevelt won a Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to ending the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War, fought over control of Manchuria and Sakhalin Island. Roosevelt had been asked to mediate by Japan, and Russia agreed. In many ways, this episode marked the beginning of the role of the U.S. president as a world leader.

    Jimmy Carter: Carter’s greatest presidential success arguably came in the Camp David Accords, the framework for peace negotiated in 1978 between Israel and Egypt after decades of conflict. Carter did not win a Nobel Prize for his accomplishment, but Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin did.

    Bill Clinton: Clinton made two ambitious attempts to broker peace between old adversaries. One ended in success, the other in failure.

    Clinton’s envoy, former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, mediated an accord between the British government, the Republic of Ireland and the warring factions in Northern Ireland that was signed on Good Friday 1998.

    On the other hand, one of Clinton’s greatest frustrations was a failed attempt to arrange peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Clinton blamed the failure on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat walking away from a deal in 2000. Instead, peace efforts were supplanted by a Palestinian uprising that killed an estimated 1,053 Israeli civilians by early 2005.

    Dealing with a third situation – the wars set off by the disintegration of Yugoslavia– the Clinton administration also obtained an agreement over Bosnia in the 1995 Dayton Accords when the parties were sufficiently exhausted.

    Donald Trump: In his first presidency, Trump himself brokered the September 2000 Abraham Accords that established formal diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The accords, brought about largely through negotiations led by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, had strategic aims of putting greater pressure for peace on the Palestinians and strengthening a common front against Iran. (The Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas may have been an attempt to stop subsequent efforts to extend the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia.)

    Although all of these examples involved presidential leadership and involvement, they did not follow a single model.

    How they did it

    Former President Bill Clinton bows as he meets former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, who spearheaded peace negotiations on behalf of Clinton that led to the end of 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland.
    Liam McBurney/PA Images via Getty Images

    Roosevelt never attended the peace negotiations over the Russo-Japanese War in Portsmouth, but he actively offered proposals through intermediaries before and during the conference. The final stages of negotiation were held on his yacht, the Mayflower.

    Carter’s breakthrough came when he engaged in intense personal diplomacy at Camp David, where he, Sadat and Begin were sequestered for 13 days. To complete the deal, Carter had to shuffle back and forth between the principals and at one point had to make a frantic appeal to Sadat not to leave.

    Clinton’s unsuccessful efforts to broker an agreement between Arafat and a succession of Israeli prime ministers extended over the duration of his two-term presidency and frequently involved personal meetings and exchanges.

    On the other hand, Clinton’s involvement in the Northern Ireland resolution did not primarily come in the form of personal diplomacy at the end of the process. Rather, he set the conditions for a settlement earlier when he approved a visa for Irish Republican leader Gerry Adams to enter the U.S., against the wishes of Britain and Clinton’s own advisers.

    When Clinton went to Belfast for a Christmas tree lighting in 1995, he brought together Catholic leaders committed to the unification of Ireland and Protestant leaders loyal to Britain. First lady Hillary Clinton also contributed by meeting with Irish women’s organizations on both sides.

    In contrast, in the Dayton process Clinton was later portrayed by chief negotiator Richard Holbrooke as essentially disengaged.

    Not like the others

    Although each mediation effort was unique, there were some commonalities.

    First, where sensitive issues of land possession were involved, many of the negotiations benefited from privacy in the process.

    Second, successful mediations came most often when the U.S. was neutral, such as in the Portsmouth negotiations, or friendly toward both parties to some degree, such as with the Camp David, Good Friday and Abraham negotiations. Dayton was the exception in that the U.S. had become quite hostile toward the Serbs.

    In Ukraine, Trump is attempting to mediate a conflict in which, until now, the U.S. has been firmly and materially supportive of one side against the other. And he is attempting to do it by publicly making, so far, proposals that were destined to be toxic to the Ukrainian public.

    Trump appears to be violating the first rule above – no public negotiations over land – in order to chase compliance with the second, which is no mediation without neutrality. By, among other things, publicly offering proposals that the Ukrainians see as one-sided against them, Trump has largely erased the image of the U.S. as pro-Ukraine.

    This is a highly controversial and risky strategy that has damaged relations with U.S. allies and cost the U.S. moral capital in pursuit of an uncertain peace.

    Whatever success Trump ultimately achieves, it is little surprise that the effort, which has been pursued over a period of six months so far, has been more difficult than he anticipated.

    Andrew E. Busch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When presidents try to make peace: What Trump could learn from Teddy Roosevelt, Carter, Clinton and his own first term – https://theconversation.com/when-presidents-try-to-make-peace-what-trump-could-learn-from-teddy-roosevelt-carter-clinton-and-his-own-first-term-255550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How millions of people can watch the same video at the same time – a computer scientist explains the technology behind streaming

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chetan Jaiswal, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Quinnipiac University

    The men’s cricket World Cup final match between Australia and India on Nov. 19, 2023, had a peak of 59 million concurrent streaming viewers. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

    Live and on-demand video constituted an estimated 66% of global internet traffic by volume in 2022, and the top 10 days for internet traffic in 2024 coincided with live streaming events such as the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match and coverage of the NFL. Streaming enables seamless, on-demand access to video content, from online gaming to short videos like TikToks, and longer content such as movies, podcasts and NFL games.

    The defining aspect of streaming is its on-demand nature. Consider the global reach of a Joe Rogan podcast episode or the live coverage of the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft launch – both examples demonstrate how streaming connects millions of viewers to real-time and on-demand content worldwide.

    I’m a computer scientist whose research includes cloud computing, which is the distribution of computing resources such as video servers across the internet.

    Netflix claimed that it supported 65 million concurrent streams for the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match on Nov. 15, 2024, though many users reported technical issues.

    ‘Chunks’ of video

    When it comes to video content – whether it’s a live stream or a prerecorded video – there are two major challenges to address. First, video data is massive in size, making it time-consuming to transmit from the source to devices such as TVs, computers, tablets and smartphones.

    Second, streaming must be adaptive to accommodate differences in users’ devices and internet capabilities. For instance, viewers with lower-resolution screens or slower internet speeds should still be able to watch a given video, albeit in lower quality, while those with higher-resolution displays and faster connections enjoy the best possible quality.

    To tackle these challenges, video providers implement a series of optimizations. The first step involves fragmenting videos into smaller pieces, commonly referred to as “chunks.” These chunks then undergo a process called “encoding and compression,” which optimizes the video for different resolutions and bitrates to suit various devices and network conditions.

    When a user requests an on-demand video, the system dynamically selects the appropriate stream of chunks based on the capabilities of the user’s device, such as screen resolution and current internet speed. The video player on the user’s device assembles and plays these chunks in sequence to create a seamless viewing experience.

    For users with slower internet connections, the system delivers lower-quality chunks to ensure smooth playback. This is why you might notice a drop in video quality when your connection speed is reduced. Similarly, if the video pauses during playback, it’s usually because your player is waiting to buffer additional chunks from the provider.

    Video streams come to users at different quality levels based on the user’s device and internet connection.
    Chetan Jaiswal

    Dealing with distance and congestion

    Delivering video content on a large scale, whether prerecorded or live, poses a significant challenge when extrapolated to the immense number of videos consumed globally. Streaming services like YouTube, Hulu and Netflix host enormous libraries of on-demand content, while simultaneously managing countless live streams happening worldwide.

    A seemingly straightforward approach to delivering video content would involve building a massive data center to store all the videos and related content, then streaming them to users worldwide via the internet. However, this method isn’t favored because it comes with significant challenges.

    One major issue is geographic latency, where a user’s location relative to the data center affects the delay they experience. For instance, if a data center is located in Virginia, a user in Washington, D.C., would experience minimal delay, while a user in Australia would face much longer delays due to the increased distance and the need for the data to traverse multiple interconnected networks. This added travel time slows down content delivery.

    Another problem is network congestion. As more users worldwide connect to the central data center, the interconnecting networks become increasingly busy, resulting in frustrating delays and video buffering. Additionally, when the same video is sent simultaneously to multiple users, duplicate data traveling over the same internet links wastes bandwidth and further congests the network.

    A centralized data center also creates a single point of failure. If the data center experiences an outage, no users can access their content, leading to a complete service disruption.

    Content delivery networks

    To address these challenges, most content providers rely on content delivery networks. These networks distribute content through globally scattered points of presence, which are clusters of servers that store copies of high-demand content locally. This approach significantly reduces latency and improves reliability.

    Content delivery network providers, such as Akamai and Edgio, implement two main strategies for deploying points of presence.

    The first is the “Enter Deep” approach, where thousands of smaller point-of-presence nodes are placed closer to users, often within internet service provider networks. This ensures minimal latency by bringing the content as close as possible to the end user.

    This diagram, with the internet backbone at the top and users at the bottom, shows the ‘Enter Deep’ approach to placing content delivery servers ‘deep’ in the network, close to users.
    Chetan Jaiswal

    The second strategy is “Bring Home,” which involves deploying hundreds of larger point-of-presence clusters at strategic locations, typically where ISPs interconnect: internet exchange points. While these clusters are farther from users than in the Enter Deep approach, they are larger in capacity, allowing them to handle higher volumes of traffic efficiently.

    This diagram, with the internet backbone at the top and users at the bottom, shows the ‘Bring Home’ approach to placing content delivery servers between backbone and regional internet service providers.
    Chetan Jaiswal

    Infrastructure for a connected world

    Both strategies aim to optimize video streaming by reducing delays, minimizing bandwidth waste and ensuring a seamless viewing experience for users worldwide.

    The rapid expansion of the internet and the surge in video streaming – both live and on demand – have transformed how video content is delivered to users globally. However, the challenges of handling massive amounts of video data, reducing geographic latency and accommodating varying user devices and internet speeds require sophisticated solutions.

    Content delivery networks have emerged as a cornerstone of modern streaming, enabling efficient and reliable delivery of video. This infrastructure supports the growing demand for high-quality video and highlights the innovative approaches needed to meet the expectations of a connected world.

    Chetan Jaiswal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How millions of people can watch the same video at the same time – a computer scientist explains the technology behind streaming – https://theconversation.com/how-millions-of-people-can-watch-the-same-video-at-the-same-time-a-computer-scientist-explains-the-technology-behind-streaming-245131

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A Michigan research professor explains how NIH funding works − and what it means to suddenly lose a grant

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brady Thomas West, Research Professor of Survey and Data Science, University of Michigan

    Demonstrators protest funding cuts outside of the U.S. National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., on March 8, 2025. Michael Mathes/AFP via Getty Images

    In its first 100 days, the Trump administration has terminated more than US$2 billion in federal grants, according to a public source database compiled by the scientific community, and it is proposing additional cuts that would reduce the $47 billion budget of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, also known as the NIH, by nearly half.

    The effects of these cuts are being felt at top-tier public research institutions such as the University of Michigan. In fiscal year 2024, of the $2 billion in total research expenditures at the university, $1.2 billion came in through federal research grants, with $762 million from NIH alone.

    Brady West is a research professor at the University of Michigan who has been writing federal grant proposals for more than two decades. The Conversation U.S. spoke with him about what these cuts could mean for the university and scientific research in the U.S. going forward.

    This article is adapted from an interview Brady gave for the May 1 episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast.

    The University of Michigan’s research arm includes “soft money” institutes. What does that mean?

    Brady West: A soft money institute is one where the salaries are entirely funded by the research grants and contracts that they’re able to obtain. This is the case for most of the research arm of the University of Michigan, which includes the Institute for Social Research where I work. The university sets the salary amounts for these positions, and the people filling them − whether faculty, staff or graduate students − have to raise the money to fund their salary.

    Teaching faculty, on the other hand, usually are paid from general university funds, which might come in from sources such as tuition, rather than grant funding.

    What is involved in applying for a grant from a federal institution like NIH?

    West: In my experience, it’s an extremely competitive and stressful process.

    On average, I would estimate that it takes about a year to craft a research proposal from scratch. Applicants do background research, look at all the relevant work that has already been done in the field, summarize the articles that they’ve written, and sometimes do initial preliminary studies. They have to sell their research as connected to past work but still innovative, something that will move the science forward.

    Meanwhile, they’re working with a team of research administrators, whose jobs at the university are funded by soft money, on things like creating a budget and determining what sort of supplies, equipment and additional personnel will be required for the research project. These administrators also help the applicant format and submit the proposal.

    How does NIH determine what proposals receive funding?

    West: Every proposal submitted to NIH gets reviewed by a panel of experts in that particular field, so your peers are the ones reviewing your proposal and deciding whether it should be considered for funding.

    Each panel is tasked with reviewing and scoring multiple proposals. About half of the proposals receive scores that do not warrant additional discussion for funding. The rest are scrutinized line by line.

    Those with the best scores, based on their merits as well as agency budgets and priorities, are ultimately awarded grants. All applicants are sent the reviewers’ comments, and those not receiving funding may revise their proposal and resubmit. In my experience, few applications get funded the first time they are submitted, and most go through at least one round of revisions.

    I’ve found it generally takes about two years from the time you start writing a proposal to the time that you get funded.

    When did you learn that NIH and other federal grants were being rescinded at the University of Michigan?

    West: The first notice I received was in mid-February of 2025. I was wrapping up a federally funded study where we were looking at different ways of measuring sexual identity in surveys. That study was funded by a $160,000 grant from NIH.

    I received a notice from administrators for the National Center for Health Statistics – part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – that maintains the data I was working with. The email said my work was being reviewed for compliance with the president’s executive orders and would be paused.

    The email Brady received from the National Center for Health Statistics, terminating his access to the secure data he’d been using for his NIH-funded research study.
    courtesy of Brady Thomas West, CC BY

    I was lucky, because that particular grant was set to end at the end of February, so the project was nearly finished, and the paper was already written.

    And then over the following weeks, it was like a waterfall. I started hearing from colleagues who were working on grants related to climate change, vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, sexual identity, gender identity, DEI – all of the work related to that, I just heard story after story of these grants being ended on the spot.

    What does this mean for the researchers who lost their funding? What will they do now?

    West: These terminations put jobs at risk – not only the research faculty, but also the teams who were working on these projects and the administrators who helped format and submit the grants.

    One of my Ph.D. students received an email from NIH that simply said his grant has been terminated. So his source of support as a graduate student at the University of Michigan was gone in an instant.

    The University of Michigan has developed a new research funding program where you can apply for support if you’ve had your grant terminated, and your local department can help share the costs. My student is waiting to hear if he will receive some of that funding. This is a welcome development, but only a short-term solution to this problem.

    So right now, everybody’s pivoting. Your first thought is, how can I write a proposal that’s not going to have certain keywords in it? And that’s just not a good way to do science.

    The University of Michigan is committed to doing the best possible science, but it’s going to require some adaptation in terms of how to think about the proposal process. And, honestly, for the immediate future, part of being a scientist in the U.S. is getting a firm understanding of what the current administration wants to fund.

    Are you or your colleagues considering leaving the university?

    West: That’s the million-dollar question. Do you decide to pack up your family and move to a different country? Do you shift to private industry? Do you wait it out for the next administration and hope that things swing back in a direction that’s going to support the kind of work that you’re doing? Those are the kinds of career decisions that people have to think about.

    Is the U.S. going to lose a lot of top-tier faculty at top-tier universities like the University of Michigan because of what’s going on? That’s a significant concern.

    Read more of our stories about Michigan.

    Brady Thomas West has received funding from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, the American Heart Association, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and National Science Foundation.

    – ref. A Michigan research professor explains how NIH funding works − and what it means to suddenly lose a grant – https://theconversation.com/a-michigan-research-professor-explains-how-nih-funding-works-and-what-it-means-to-suddenly-lose-a-grant-255082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can Keir Starmer learn anything from Mark Carney’s near-miraculous election win in Canada?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Steve Hewitt, Associate Professor in North American History, University of Birmingham

    The greatest comeback since Lazarus. So went some of the sentiment around novice politician Mark Carney’s near-miraculous victory in the April 28 Canadian federal election.

    His Liberal party was on political life support in January. The highly unpopular Justin Trudeau had just resigned and, after nearly ten years in office, the governing centrist Liberals seemed destined for an historic defeat. The Conservative party led by over 20 points in opinion polls and looked certain to enter government.

    Then came a two-part salvation. First was the arrival of Carney as Liberal leader. Without a previous political record, Carney avoided the contamination attached to the Liberals’ time in office.

    The other part of the revival came courtesy of President Donald J. Trump, who repeatedly referred to the outgoing Trudeau as “governor” and mused continually, including on the day of the Canadian election, about his desire for Canada to become the “51st state” of the United States. Applying tariffs on Canadian goods made it clear that the threat was real and triggered a dramatic nationalistic reaction on the part of Canadians.

    They began avoiding travel to the United States and boycotting American products. Carney rode such sentiments to a near majority parliamentary victory and the highest Liberal share of the popular vote at the federal level since 1980.

    But are there lessons from the Carney triumph that might aid other struggling leaders, such as British prime minister Keir Starmer? Having achieved a large majority less than a year ago, Labour has lost a safe seat to Reform in a byelection and languishes in the polls.

    Whereas Carney and the Liberals have been vocal in their resistance to Trump, Starmer and Labour have followed a path of obsequiousness, even to the point of avoiding criticism of the US president over threats to Canada. Instead of speaking out, Starmer has managed Trump by flattering him through an invitation for a second state visit.

    Starmer and Labour seem determined to curry favour with Trump to gain a free trade agreement with the US. Setting aside the value of such an agreement, given how Trump has simply ignored the deal his first administration struck with Mexico and Canada in 2020, the toadying appears to have all been for naught.

    According to the Guardian, the Trump administration has made a free-trade agreement with the UK a second or third level priority. So much for the “special relationship”.

    This apparent disinterest would imply that Starmer and Labour have little to risk by taking a more aggressive stance. Playing a more overtly nationalistic card might play well with more centrist voters in the UK, as it did in Canada. There is clear evidence from opinion polls of growing unhappiness with the United States among Britons, along with increasing disdain for the idea of the “special relationship”.

    Such an approach might undermine some of the momentum that the Reform Party has enjoyed over the last few months. Tying Nigel Farage to the Trump administration might be especially effective given his close connections over several years to the president.

    Certainly, tarring your opponent as a mini-Trump represented an effective tool by the Liberal campaign against the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who not only lost the election but also was defeated in his own constituency after having won there seven previous times.

    A case could be made that the Canadian situation has a uniqueness that isn’t necessarily transferrable elsewhere. There is, for instance, a long history in the country of anti-Americanism as a potent political force, especially on the left of the political spectrum.

    Efforts to distance Canada from the US culturally and intellectually in the 1960s and 1970s were popular and led to a cultural flourishing. And elections in 1911 and 1988 were fought directly over the issue of free trade with the United States.

    Major public concerns over American domination of Canada were key in both contests, even though the latter election was a victory for the Progressive Conservative party that advocated free trade with the US. Additionally, a significant element of Canadian identity outside of Quebec has long been defined in oppositional terms to Canada’s southern neighbour.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Even though the Canadian example may be unique, other countries are certainly looking towards it. Taking an aggressive stance against Trump tariffs appears to be helping the Labor party in Australia. It may also have an impact in New Zealand. At this point, with Starmer and Labour struggling in troubled polling waters, Trump may be the best political lifeline available.

    Steve Hewitt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Keir Starmer learn anything from Mark Carney’s near-miraculous election win in Canada? – https://theconversation.com/can-keir-starmer-learn-anything-from-mark-carneys-near-miraculous-election-win-in-canada-255735

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform wins Runcorn byelection by just six votes – what the result means for Labour and the Tories

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool

    One story dominates the elections held on May 1 in England: the dramatic Reform surge. The Runcorn and Helsby byelection was a stunning win for Nigel Farage’s party.

    Labour’s 49th safest seat – supposedly safer than the prime minister’s – was hardly natural Farage territory. The town of Runcorn – Liverpool overspill mainly – makes up 60% of the constituency. Labour won more votes than all other parties combined in the general election of July 2024. Yet less than a year later, Reform has captured the seat, overturning a majority of 14,700 – albeit with the smallest ever byelection majority, beating Labour by just six votes.

    This has delivered Reform its first woman MP, former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin. Her arrival brings the party up to five MPs (a sixth having been suspended from the party earlier this year).

    Do early byelections matter, with the general election so distant? They can be a signal of what is to come. Since the second world war, Labour has only once retained office at the next general election after losing a seat at a byelection less than one year after forming a government. A narrow loss to the Conservatives in Leyton in 1965 was sandwiched between 1964 and 1966 general election triumphs, but that was the exception to the rule.

    The norm is for new governments to enjoy a honeymoon. No such joy for Keir Starmer’s Labour.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Farage has made what is being called an economic “left turn” in a bid to attract Labour voters. He continues to push for tougher immigration policies but is now also backing greater nationalisation, including for British steel.

    Starmer benefited from intra-right tussling between the Conservatives and Reform in July – the split vote on the right contributed to his loveless landslide. But things look different now Reform has shown it can take on Labour and win.

    And while the Conservatives were never in the running in this byelection, they’ve been damaged in their own way. Farage’s assessment was that “after tonight, there’s no question, in most of the country we are now the main opposition party to this government.”

    Given that the Conservatives have 20 times the number of MPs as Reform, that’s a bold claim from Farage. But Reform has more members and is well funded.

    Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has compared her position to that of William Hague when he took over a Conservative party battered by Labour’s landslide win in 1997. It’s a dismal vista. Hague was similarly crushed at the next general election. Yet for the Conservatives there remained the prospect of an eventual swing back of the pendulum. As the fragmentation of politics gathers pace under the Reform surge, there are now no such guarantees.

    Badenoch’s closest leadership rival, Robert Jenrick, has made clear that the right of British politics, the Conservatives and Reform, will be obliged to unite or both will fail. They believe Reform has yet to be properly scrutinised and could fade.

    Yet Reform may continue to upend the old certainties of the Conservative-Labour duopoly. British electoral politics have never been more fragmented and, in that context, Farage is the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next prime minister.

    Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Reform wins Runcorn byelection by just six votes – what the result means for Labour and the Tories – https://theconversation.com/reform-wins-runcorn-byelection-by-just-six-votes-what-the-result-means-for-labour-and-the-tories-255739

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Despite Supreme Court setback, children’s lawsuits against climate change continue

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexandra Klass, James G. Degnan Professor of Law, University of Michigan

    Young Montanans, including Rikki Held, center, sued their state government and won a key ruling forcing the state government to consider greenhouse gas emissions when reviewing proposed development projects. William Campbell/Getty Images

    An ancient legal principle has become a key strategy of American children seeking to reduce the effects of climate change in the 21st century. A defeat at the U.S. Supreme Court in March 2025 has not stopped the effort, which has several legal actions continuing in the courts.

    The legal basis for these cases is called the “public trust doctrine,” the principle that certain natural resources – historically, navigable waters such as lakes, rivers and streams and the lands under them – must be maintained in government ownership and held in trust for present and future generations of the public.

    Although the origins of the doctrine remain in some dispute, most scholars cite its first mention in ancient Roman law. Over the centuries the principle made its way to England and later to the United States.

    For the past decade, a nonprofit called Our Children’s Trust has argued for a 21st-century interpretation of the public trust doctrine to support lawsuits against state and federal agencies and officials, seeking to force them to take specific actions to fight climate change. Our Children’s Trust has focused on children, saying they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change because their futures, which the public trust doctrine protects, will be lived in an unsafe and unhealthy climate unless governments take action. Children around the world have filed similar lawsuits against their governments on alternate legal grounds, including claims of constitutional and human rights violations.

    Initial uses of the public trust doctrine in the US

    The U.S. Supreme Court first endorsed the public trust doctrine in 1892, when it ruled that the doctrine prevented the Illinois legislature from selling virtually the entire Chicago harbor in Lake Michigan to a private railroad company. In the 20th century, state courts have ruled that the doctrine bars states and local governments from selling off lakefront property or harbors to private owners and protects public access to beaches, lakes and oceans.

    The public trust doctrine had little to do with environmental protection until the 1970s, however, after law professor Joseph Sax wrote an influential article arguing that the doctrine could form the basis for lawsuits to protect water and other natural resources from pollution, destruction and other threats.

    Over the past five decades, some states’ courts have expanded the public trust doctrine’s application beyond access to water-based resources, ruling it can also require governments to protect parks and wildlife from development. And Montana, Minnesota and several other states followed Sax’s recommendation to pass laws or amend their state constitutions to impose broader obligations on states to protect natural resources.

    Young people have taken part in many protests seeking action to prevent or reduce the effects of climate change, including this 2017 rally in Colorado.
    Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    A new approach

    In 2011, Our Children’s Trust argued for the first time that governments had a legal obligation to protect the atmosphere as a public trust resource. The group filed lawsuits in all 50 states on behalf of children. Most state courts dismissed the lawsuits quickly, holding that there were no court decisions in their states that supported extending the public trust doctrine to claims involving the climate or the atmosphere.

    In 2015 the group filed a similar lawsuit in federal court in Oregon, this time against the federal government. That lawsuit, Juliana v. United States, alleged that the federal government’s inaction to address climate change violated the public trust doctrine as well as the 21 young plaintiffs’ rights to life, liberty and property under the U.S. Constitution.

    The plaintiffs asked the court to order the federal government to prepare an inventory of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions and to implement a national plan to phase out fossil fuels to “stabilize the climate system and protect the vital resources on which Plaintiffs now and in the future will depend.”

    The federal lawsuit survived an early effort from the government to dismiss the case but never reached a full trial. In 2016 an Oregon federal judge ruled that the U.S. government had an obligation to protect the climate under both the public trust doctrine and the U.S. Constitution. However, this ruling was reversed on appeal. After years of back-and-forth in the court system, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the case’s dismissal in March 2025.

    A talk with one of the plaintiffs in a lawsuit against the U.S. government seeking to force regulatory action to reduce the effects of climate change.

    An updated strategy

    Since the initial wave of litigation, Our Children’s Trust has continued to file lawsuits to force governments to address climate change. These newer ones are more narrowly tailored to state-specific constitutional and statutory provisions that protect environmental and public trust resources. And, so far, they have been more successful.

    In a 2020 Montana lawsuit, for example, the plaintiffs relied on a 1972 amendment to the state constitution declaring that the state and every person “shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations” and that the legislature shall “provide adequate remedies to prevent unreasonable depletion and degradation of natural resources.” Montana Supreme Court decisions prior to the 2020 lawsuit had held that the framers of the 1972 amendment had intended it to contain “the strongest environmental protection provision found in any state constitution.”

    Relying on these court decisions, the Montana plaintiffs argued that a state law preventing state agencies from considering the effects of greenhouse gases in issuing permit applications for projects such as power plants or mines violated the state constitution.

    The plaintiffs won at trial, and in a landmark opinion in 2024 the Montana Supreme Court upheld the trial court’s finding that greenhouse gases were harmful to the state’s “climate, rivers, lakes, groundwater, atmospheric waters, forests, glaciers, fish, wildlife, air quality, and ecosystem.” The court similarly found that “a stable climate system … is clearly within the object and true principles” of the state’s constitution.

    Children in Hawaii filed a similar lawsuit in 2022 against the state Department of Transportation, alleging that its failure to reduce transportation emissions in the state violated the state public trust doctrine and the state’s constitution. The lawsuit relied on Hawaii courts’ previous rulings that the state’s public trust doctrine and state constitution broadly protect natural resources for present and future generations. In 2024, days before trial was to begin, the parties reached a landmark settlement in which the state agreed to take concrete actions to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.

    In the Montana lawsuit, a U.S. court ruled that the government had failed to protect the rights of children by failing to take action to reduce or prevent climate change.

    The road ahead

    Looking back, it was perhaps not surprising that a one-size-fits-all nationwide legal strategy based on a doctrine that varies widely state by state would face long odds. But the public trust doctrine itself has been historically incremental, expanding and contracting as society and the needs of its citizens change over time. And Our Children’s Trust has several cases still pending, including in Alaska and Utah state courts, and in a federal court in California.

    The campaign’s successes broke new legal ground: Montana courts held the first trial in the United States that examined evidence of the effects of climate change and states’ obligations to address them. The Hawaii settlement set concrete benchmarks and included provisions for continued feedback on state policies by the youth plaintiffs.

    More broadly, Our Children’s Trust’s campaign demonstrates that a combination of legal advocacy and nationwide publicity over the plight of young people in a rapidly changing climate have the potential to result in real change, both in the law and in public perception of the importance of addressing climate change.

    Alexandra Klass does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Despite Supreme Court setback, children’s lawsuits against climate change continue – https://theconversation.com/despite-supreme-court-setback-childrens-lawsuits-against-climate-change-continue-255189

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Children in military families face unique psychological challenges, and the barriers to getting help add to the strain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ian H. Stanley, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine & Clinical Psychologist, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Military kids tend to drink more and have more depression than nonmilitary peers. kail9/E+ via Getty Images

    “When one person joins the military, the whole family serves.”

    The origin of this statement is unknown, but it captures the reality that military families confront in 2025. One member’s service shapes the lives of the entire family.

    Here’s a look at the numbers: More than 2 million Americans serve in the U.S. military. About 1.3 million are on active duty, nearly half of them are married, and just over one-third have children. Many of the rest are otherwise partnered, or they live with extended family members.

    These military families encounter unique psychological stressors. Frequent relocations disrupt a spouse’s job, a child’s schooling, and family routines. Deployments and the constant threat of war may strain relationships. For dual-military couples, these pressures are compounded. For them, prolonged separation and increased child care needs are even more common.

    We are a clinical psychologist and a clinical trauma epidemiologist. Both of us are at the University of Colorado Center for COMBAT Research, where one of our core missions is to improve the psychological health of these families through education, innovation and high-impact research.

    When a military parent is deployed, some kids react with irritability and aggression.

    Depression, alcohol and suicidal thoughts

    Most military families demonstrate remarkable resilience and lead happy, healthy, and productive lives. For so many of them, being part of a military family and serving their country is a source of great pride and honor.

    But numerous studies show that military children are also more likely to face a range of psychological issues than their nonmilitary peers. They experience more depression and drink more alcohol; they are more likely to attempt suicide; and when a military parent is wounded, they are more likely to express suicidal thoughts. What’s more, from 2011 to 2022, the suicide death rate for children and spouses in military families slightly increased.

    Military families can take a simple step to stop at least some of these tragedies – by securely storing personally owned firearms, particularly when a child is in the home. This is recommended by the Department of Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as firearm trade associations and firearm businesses.

    Word seems to be getting out: Research shows military-connected youth with mental health challenges are less likely than peers to carry guns.

    For many military families, financial stress is a top concern.

    Overcoming barriers

    All this is happening at a time of unprecedented challenges for military families. The U.S. military is enhancing warfighter readiness; increased training requirements may take service members away from home for weeks to months at a time, adding to family stress. What’s more, future military conflicts will likely mean longer deployments.

    One barrier to getting psychological help is the stigma surrounding mental health. The military promotes a culture of self-reliance and resiliency under pressure – and for good reasons. But for many military families, seeking help is seen as a sign of weakness. Admitting to having struggles is often perceived as vulnerability, and some military members think asking for help may harm their career. Some of these ethos appear to extend to family members as well.

    The Defense Department, along with several nonprofits, has made significant efforts not only to decrease stigma, but also increase services that foster psychological health. Research shows existing programs do help. This includes free services from Military OneSource, Military and Family Life Counseling, Families OverComing Under Stress and 4-H Military Partnership. But despite what appears to be an abundance of these programs, many military members and their families are still unaware they exist or have difficulty accessing them.

    Children from military families are more likely than peers to serve in the military. That means protecting their psychological well-being at an early age may ultimately translate to a stronger military in the next generation. Expanding youth- and family-focused programs is an investment, not only in these families, but in the future of the nation.

    Ian H. Stanley receives funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, USAA/Face the Fight Foundation, and the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute. He is affiliated with the Scientific Advisory Board for Face the Fight.

    Anne Ritter receives funding from the U.S. Department of Defense.

    – ref. Children in military families face unique psychological challenges, and the barriers to getting help add to the strain – https://theconversation.com/children-in-military-families-face-unique-psychological-challenges-and-the-barriers-to-getting-help-add-to-the-strain-251989

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

    The final Newspoll gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a Freshwater poll gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a DemosAU poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead and a Morgan poll gave Labor a 53–47 lead. Vote counting at the election is also covered.

    The final Newspoll, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1,270, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 21–24 Newspoll. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up two), 8% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (steady).

    Applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes would give Labor about a 53–47 lead. Newspoll is giving the Coalition a greater share of One Nation preferences than in 2022.

    Here is the final poll graph. Labor is clearly ahead and will win Saturday’s election unless polls are overstating them by as much as they did in the 2019 election.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll was down one point to -10, with 52% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped a further four points to a new record low of -28. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 51–35.

    Since the early March Newspoll (the last one before the election campaign began), Dutton has lost 14 points on net approval, while Albanese has gained two points.

    Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted.

    A simple average of the four polls this week that have asked for leaders’ ratings (Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and Resolve) has Albanese at net -3.8 approval and Dutton at net -20.

    By 57–43, voters thought they would be better off in the next three years under an Albanese Labor government than a Dutton Coalition government.

    Labor takes 51.5–48.5 lead in final Freshwater poll

    A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2,055 (double the normal sample size), gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.3-point gain for Labor since the April 14–16 Freshwater poll.

    Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 18% for all Others (up one). One Nation were broken out for the first time and had 8%. By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 51–49.

    Freshwater has been the most pro-Coalition of regular Australian pollsters, and its last poll had a near tie when other polls had Labor well ahead.

    Albanese’s net approval was up seven points to -3, with 44% unfavourable and 41% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was down five points to -16. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 49–39 (46–41 previously).

    Labor gained a point on cost of living and economic management to reduce the Coalition’s lead to one point and five points on these issues respectively.

    The Coalition led by 55–45 with the 42% who had already voted (25% early and 17% by postal ballot). Labor led by 52–41 with those yet to vote with 7% undecided.

    Two DemosAU final week polls

    The two national DemosAU polls listed here were taken over a concurrent fieldwork period. The previous DemosAU poll, conducted April 22–23, had given Labor a 52–48 lead from primary votes of 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others.

    A national DemosAU poll
    , conducted April 27–30 from a large sample of 4,100, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, from primary votes of 33% Coalition, 31% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots, 7% independents and 6% others. State and other breakdowns are provided in the report.

    Albanese led Dutton by 46–34 as preferred PM. Party breakdowns of this question had Albanese leading by 71–10 with Greens voters, 57–20 with independent voters and 36–27 with other voters. Dutton only led by 43–21 with One Nation voters and 37–30 with Trumpet of Patriots voters. These breakdowns don’t imply a Coalition surge on preference flows.

    A second national DemosAU poll for The Gazette, conducted April 27–29 from a sample of 1,974, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, Primary votes were 32% Coalition, 29% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 11% others.

    Labor retains 53–47 lead in final Morgan poll

    The final national Morgan poll, conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1,368, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, unchanged from the April 21–27 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (down one), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (up 0.5), 3% teal independents (up one) and 7.5% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 54–46.

    More from the Spectre poll

    I’ve received the full Spectre poll that I wrote about on Thursday. Labor’s net favourability was net zero, the Liberals were at net -2, Albanese was net -6, Dutton was net -13, Pauline Hanson was net -8 and Greens leader Adam Bandt was net -12.

    The most unpopular people in this poll were US President Donald Trump at net -47 and Elon Musk at net -45.

    Vote counting for the election

    Polls close at 6pm AEST Saturday in the eastern states, which have 122 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. Polls close at 6:30pm AEST in South Australia and the Northern Territory (12 combined seats), and in Western Australia at 8pm AEST (16 seats).

    By 8pm AEST, I expect the large majority of votes cast on election day to be counted in the eastern states. But pre-poll votes and returned postal votes already account for 40% of enrolled voters, and the biggest day of pre-polling (Friday) is still to be added.

    In many seats, we will need to wait until the pre-poll votes are counted before a result can be called. It’s unlikely the election will be called until a large proportion of the pre-poll votes have been counted. This is likely to take until late at night AEST.

    Not all seats will be called on election night. In some seats, the electoral commission will have selected the incorrect candidates for its final two candidate count, and will need to re-do this count with the correct candidates.

    Other seats will be close between the final two, and we will need to wait for late postals and absent votes to decide the winner. If postmarked by election day, postals have up to May 16 to arrive (13 days after the election).

    I wrote about the Senate election on April 16. It will usually be clear on election night who has won the top four or five seats out of six in a state. But to resolve the final seats, all votes need to be data entered into a computer system, then a button is pressed to electronically distribute preferences. This is likely to take about four weeks after the election.

    UK byelection and local elections

    I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom parliamentary byelection and local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The far-right Reform gained the safe Labour Runcorn and Helsby seat, winning by just six votes. They are making massive gains from both the Conservatives and Labour in the local elections.

    In final results from Monday’s Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, three short of the 172 needed for a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP and 1.3% Greens.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election – https://theconversation.com/final-polls-give-labor-a-clear-lead-before-the-election-255724

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australian election. Will it prove decisive?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    Donald Trump is everywhere, inescapable. His return to power in the United States was always going to have some impact on the Australian federal election. The question was how disruptive he would be.

    The answer is very – but not in the ways we might have thought.

    As soon as Trump was elected president, the political debate in Australia focused on whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton would be best suited to managing him – and keeping the US-Australia security alliance intact.

    Initially, at least, this conversation was predictable.

    The Coalition looked set to continue an ideological alignment with Trumpism that had flourished under the prime ministership of Scott Morrison. Dutton prosecuted the argument that given his party’s experience with the first Trump administration, it would be better placed than Labor to handle the second.

    Albanese, meanwhile, appeared caught off guard by Trump’s victory and timid in his response.

    But as has become all too clear, the second Trump administration is radically different from the first. That has rattled the right of Australian politics and worked to Labor’s advantage.

    A turning point at the White House

    In January, the Coalition announced that NT Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price had been appointed shadow minister for government efficiency – a direct importation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) being led by Elon Musk in the US.

    In a barely disguised imitation of the Trump administration’s attacks on “diversity, equity and inclusion” (DEI) measures, members of the Coalition, including Price, singled out Welcome to Country ceremonies as evidence of the kind of “wasteful” spending it would cut.

    When the Coalition seemed to be riding high in the polls, Dutton, too, nodded at “wokeism” and singled out young white men feeling “disenfranchised”.

    Soon after, however, this began to change. The first few weeks of Trump’s second term were marked by a cascade of executive actions targeting trans people, climate action and immigration. Trump and his new appointees began the process of radically reshaping the United States and its role in the world.

    In February, polling by the independent think tank The Australia Institute found Australians saw Trump as a bigger threat to world peace than Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

    And then Volodymyr Zelensky went to the White House.

    The Ukrainian president was humiliated in an Oval Office meeting with Trump and Vice President JD Vance, laying bare how the administration was willing to treat the leader of an ally devastated by a war it hadn’t started.

    Trump’s territorial threats towards Canada and Greenland, in addition to his dismissive statements about European allies, shattered the long-held assumptions about the US as a force for stability in the world.

    MAGA ideology isn’t ‘pick and choose’

    After this incident, Dutton was careful to distance himself from Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine. He even went so far as to say that leadership might require “standing up to your friends and to those traditional allies because our views have diverged”.

    Similarly, influential Coalition powerbroker Peta Credlin wrote in The Australian:

    it’s hard to see America made great again if the Trump administration’s message to the world is that the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.

    Therein lies the bind for the Coalition – an ideological alignment with “Make America Great Again” cannot be fully reconciled with a nationalism that puts Australian interests first.

    MAGA ideology is all-or-nothing, not pick-and-choose.

    During the election campaign, the Coalition attempted to walk the path of “pick-and-choose”. And Labor quite successfully used this against them. Assertions the opposition leader was nothing but a “Temu Trump”, or “DOGE-y Dutton”, stuck because they had at least a ring of truth to them.

    The opposition’s pledge to dramatically reduce the size of the public service, for example, was clearly linked to Musk’s efforts at DOGE to take a chainsaw to the public service in the US. This idea has been deeply unpopular with Australian voters, and the Coalition has faced innumerable questions about it.

    For all the talk of “shared values” and how essential the US alliance is to Australian security, this campaign shows that Australia is not like America.

    Most Australians concerned about Trump’s impact

    When Trump’s tariffs arrived on “Liberation Day” in early April, both leaders claimed they were best placed to negotiate.

    Albanese insisted Australia had got one of the best results in the world, while Dutton asserted, without evidence, that he would be able to negotiate a better one.

    More broadly, the Trump tariffs have contributed to a growing sense of unease in the electorate.

    A recent YouGov poll found that 66% of Australians no longer believe the US can be relied on for defence and security. According to Paul Smith, the director of YouGov, this is a “fundamental change of worldview”.

    In the same poll, 71% of Australians also said they were either concerned or very concerned Trump’s policies would make Australia worse off.

    While neither party has signalled it would make a fundamental shift in Australia’s alliance with the US if elected, that doesn’t mean changes aren’t possible.

    Independents and minor parties may well play a significant role in the formation of the next government. Some, like Zoe Daniel and Jacqui Lambie, are increasingly vocal about the risks the Trump administration poses to Australia.

    A limit to Trumpism’s appeal

    As election day approaches, many of the assumptions driving conventional Australian political thinking are under pressure.

    Labor’s recovery in the polls, and the Liberals’ election win in Canada, suggest assumptions about the dangers of incumbency might have been misplaced. The dissatisfaction with incumbent governments last year may have had more to do with unresponsive political parties and systems.

    There’s evidence emerging, instead, that in more responsive democracies with robust institutions like Australia and Canada, Trumpism does not have great appeal.

    The idea that “kindness is not a weakness” may yet prove to be a winning political strategy.

    Emma Shortis is Director of International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australian election. Will it prove decisive? – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-has-cast-a-long-shadow-over-the-australian-election-will-it-prove-decisive-255422

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Burkina Faso and Mali’s fabulous flora: new plant life record released

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Cyrille Chatelain, Scientist, Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de Genève (CJBG)

    The Illustrated Flora of Burkina Faso and Mali is the first comprehensive documentation of the remarkable plant diversity in these two west African countries.

    Written in French, the book is the outcome of decades of botanical research and scientific collaboration between institutions and botanists from Burkina Faso, Mali, France, Switzerland and Germany. For the first time, it provides a complete inventory of ferns and flowering plants in Burkina Faso and Mali. It catalogues 2,631 species – both native and introduced – with 2,115 identified in Burkina Faso, 1,952 in Mali, and 1,453 shared between both countries.

    Featuring over 800 photographs, 2,631 scientific illustrations, detailed descriptions, distribution maps, and identification keys, it serves as an essential tool for scientific research and biodiversity conservation. It’s also useful for sustainable development in the region.

    We are a team of botanists from Burkina Faso, Mali and Europe who worked on this guide. One of our team is the botanist Jean César, who has carried out botanical research in the region for over 30 years. We based the guide on his earlier work in researching the flora of West Africa, and training young botanists.

    The guide shows how diverse the climate of west Africa is. From the Sahara Desert to the Sahelian zone and the savannas and open forests of the Sudanian region.

    By identifying plant species – whether common, rare, overexploited, or invasive – this guide can play a crucial role in conservation efforts: one can only protect what one knows.

    The publication lays the groundwork for conservation of Sahelian ecosystems, which face increasing degradation with direct consequences for rural communities.

    How we came up with the guide

    As a team, we’ve conducted more than 40 years of research in Burkina Faso and Mali, documenting different plants. We also studied herbarium collections in Paris, Montpellier, Frankfurt and Geneva in Europe and Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso in Burkina Faso.

    We drew from online resources such as African Plants – A Photo Guide and the African Plant Database. These compile comprehensive data on African plant biology, distribution and taxonomy (the science of classifying and naming plants).

    The book is written in French and includes an index of local plant names in the local languages of Bambara, Dogon, Sonrai, Sénoufo and Peulh. This makes it a valuable resource for local communities and researchers alike. There is an open access digital version to make sure that everyone can use the new illustrated guide.

    Discovering new and rare species

    The book highlights species previously known from only a few observations. These are both widely distributed species and plants that are rare, only found in unprotected areas facing heavy urbanisation.

    About 330 of the plant species in the guide have only ever been seen once in Burkina Faso or Mali, although some are present in neighbouring countries.

    Another 40 near-endemic species (mainly only found in Burkina Faso and Mali) have only been seen once 40 years ago. Most of those are aquatic plants, growing along the Niger River, or in small wetland environments.

    Additionally, this research updates information on more than a hundred poorly understood species that require further study. Some of these are likely new to science and have not even been given formal names. For instance, we found a new type of Brachystegia tree in the Geneva Botanical Garden’s herbarium. It is new to science and will have to be described.

    Many plants documented here hold ethnobotanical value. They are part of the indigenous knowledge of Burkina Faso and Mali and play roles in traditional medicine, agriculture and crafts.

    We found more than 120 species that have medicinal uses. Identifying them with correct scientific names will be crucial for the study of how people can continue to use these plants, especially as medicine.

    Collaboration in difficult times

    The hospitality of Sahelian countries has fostered numerous collaborations over the years under different projects.

    Unfortunately, the current insecurity in the region has made field studies extremely dangerous, threatening conservation projects. For instance, forest rangers can no longer travel freely, and some regions have become inaccessible.

    Publishing this book at such a difficult time brings renewed momentum to scientists and serves as a positive sign of continued collaboration. It gives visibility to botanical studies in both countries and highlights the importance of collaborations among botanists from different continents.

    By recording this biodiversity, this work not only preserves valuable ecological knowledge but also ensures that the knowledge of these species is not lost to conflict-driven environmental degradation. It sheds light on the importance of preserving plants for future generations.

    Cyrille Chatelain receives funding from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC).

    Adjima Thiombiano, Blandine Marie Ivette Nacoulma, and Mamadou Lamine Diarra do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Burkina Faso and Mali’s fabulous flora: new plant life record released – https://theconversation.com/burkina-faso-and-malis-fabulous-flora-new-plant-life-record-released-253571

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –