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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Germany is back’: 3 ways NZ can benefit from Europe’s renewed centre of power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mathew Doidge, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Research on Europe, University of Canterbury

    Getty Images

    It’s unlikely many New Zealanders paid close attention to Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ statement late last year that “New Zealand and Germany are committed to enhancing their partnership”.

    Peters had been visiting Berlin two weeks after Donald Trump’s US election victory, but well before the real contours of the second Trump administration came into focus.

    The foreign minister’s diplomatic tone may have suited the less heated atmosphere of the time, but 2025 is a very different place. With the pillars of the international system New Zealand depends on crumbling, strong ties with an active Germany at the heart of Europe begin to look more important.

    Germans, too, are grappling with the same uncertainties – not least Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union party leader who is all but certain to be the new chancellor when coalition negotiations conclude.

    Among the most pro-American of Europe’s leaders, Merz will enter the Chancellery at a time when US relations are fraught. Even before the February election results were finalised, he acknowledged this new reality, calling to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that […] we can really achieve independence from the USA”.

    With Trump’s reversal of US support for Ukraine, his “might is right” foreign policy and hostile trade tariffs, Germany and the European Union have begun to reassess their place in the new world order. New Zealand will be watching closely.

    Easing the ‘debt brake’

    Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine a Zeitenwende – a watershed moment from which “the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before”. Trump 2.0 has only reinforced this rupture.

    Responding to events even before assuming office, Merz (supported by the Social Democratic Party and the Greens) reformed Germany’s “debt brake”, or Schuldenbremse.

    Restricting government borrowing to 0.35% of GDP, the brake was introduced by former chancellor Angela Merkel in 2009 to limit indebtedness following the global financial crisis. It achieved its aim, but contributed significantly to the current parlous state of German infrastructure and defence.

    The reform allows greater borrowing for defence and establishes a €500 billion infrastructure fund (with €100 billion for climate and economic transformation as the price for Green support).

    This is the first step in Merz’s goal to transform Germany from “a sleeping middle power to a leading middle power again”, and exercise greater leadership in the European Union alongside France and Poland.

    With Emmanuel Macron’s French presidency ending in 2027, and France’s far-right gaining strength (Marine Le Pen’s recent embezzlement conviction notwithstanding), a strong Germany at the heart of Europe is essential to the maintenance of the EU and its approach to world affairs.

    As an important – perhaps vital – partner for New Zealand and the Pacific, three key considerations stand out.

    A leading middle power: Friedrich Merz addressing Christian Democratic Union supporters in Berlin on election night, February 23.
    Getty Images

    Pacific re-engagement

    Germany’s ties with Samoa and the Pacific may be a century old, but it has recently begun looking south again, including opening an embassy in Suva in August 2023.

    Now, the Trump administration’s axing of USAID has put foreign aid in the region under a cloud. Pacific states are not eligible for German bilateral development support, but are covered by more general climate change and disaster preparedness programmes.

    Since stepping up Pacific engagement in 2022, Germany has also joined the Partners in the Blue Pacific and been an advocate for Pacific projects within the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative (a framework for global infrastructure investment).

    Importantly, Germany does not intend to establish significant independent Pacific aid projects. Rather, it sees itself as a “force multiplier”, partnering with other donors to support their efforts. New Zealand therefore has an opportunity to both strengthen relations with Germany and add impact to its own Pacific projects.

    Climate resilience

    Climate change is the single greatest security threat to Pacific island states, and yet another area the US is pulling back from. But while Germany has been a strong player on climate policy, Merz has been a critic of the Greens and environmental policy in general.

    The balance of power in the new Bundestag may now force a change of mindset. Merz’s coalition will hold just 328 seats in the 630-seat chamber, meaning Green support cannot be discounted. A more serious commitment to climate policy will be the price.

    There is a base to work from, too. Germany co-founded the UN Group of Friends on Climate and Security with Nauru in 2018, and has identified climate issues as a driving force behind its Pacific engagement. Again, this is an area where New Zealand’s interests can be served by closer engagement with Germany.

    The rules-based order

    Ultimately, the international trade system and multilateral frameworks for cooperation and conflict resolution are crucial pillars of the Germany-New Zealand relationship.

    With the US no longer a reliable backstop, Germany and the EU are also the bulwark for a rules-based order grounded in international law. Merz’s debt brake reform, seen as strengthening Europe, was framed in these terms:

    Our friends in the EU are looking to us just as much as our adversaries and the enemies of our democratic and rules-based order.

    “Germany is back,” Merz said in March. We may well see New Zealand’s foreign minister back in Germany before long, too.

    Mathew Doidge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Germany is back’: 3 ways NZ can benefit from Europe’s renewed centre of power – https://theconversation.com/germany-is-back-3ways-nz-can-benefit-from-europes-renewed-centre-of-power-253926

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bringing manufacturing back from overseas isn’t an easy solution to Trump’s trade war

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Stone, Credit Union SA Chair of Economics, University of South Australia

    Shutterstock

    The past week has seen the United States single-handedly rewrite the underlying paradigm for global trade. And while it is fair to say that the methods are extreme, the underlying goal of the policy is not unique to the US.

    Indeed, the push to support, and expand, domestic manufacturing through policy intervention is experiencing a resurgence not seen since the 1970s.

    Many people believe the COVID pandemic exposed weaknesses in global supply chains. In reality, the pandemic simply accelerated an existing trend of slowing of integration.

    Growing concerns around trade wars and risks from climate shock existed prior to COVID with both policymakers and firms rethinking globalisation strategies.

    Countries were also becoming concerned about the manufacturing dominance of China and the potential weaponisation of economic activity.

    The risks of rising concentration

    The expansion of international trade has led to massive efficiencies in production.

    But it has also led to concentration of certain sectors in certain regions. Examples include software development in Silicon Valley, semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan and critical minerals processing in China.

    The Apple campus in Silicon Valley: no other country has been able to match the tech hub.
    Shutterstock

    This geographic concentration started to raise concerns for many countries. Reasons include climate events disrupting supply chains, pandemics and increasingly, geopolitical concerns.

    In response to the rise in economic concentration, countries as diverse as Japan, South Korea, the European Union, India, Brazil and the US introduced policy actions to promote or return certain critical sectors to domestic production.

    Australia’s Future Made In Australia plan is a prime example of this.

    Trade disruptions

    Even before the Trump tariffs, the US and other countries were alarmed by China’s control over key manufacturing sectors, and its associated ability to disrupt trade and commerce.

    Australia experienced this first-hand when China imposed significant tariffs on wine and barley in response to Australia’s call for a COVID inquiry.

    China’s willingness to use its economic position was demonstrated on Friday when it announced not just retaliatory tariffs, but export restrictions on seven categories of rare earth minerals. These are critical to strategic US sectors affecting companies like Apple and defence contractor Lockheed Martin.

    Government support on the rise

    This shift to increased economic resilience through self-reliance has led to a big surge in government intervention through industrial policies.

    The objective of industrial policy is to target certain sectors in order to change the structure of economic activity within a country. It uses government policy to promote investment in sectors deemed under-served by markets.

    While all countries have used some level of industrial policy, historically it was mainly confined to developing economies. It has been used sparingly since the 1970s. Between 2009 and 2017, the total number of industrial policies used by countries was less than 200.

    Between 2017 and 2023 the use of industrial policy increased nine-fold. In 2023, there were roughly 2,500 industrial policy interventions put in place with two-thirds introduced by advanced economies. Almost 48% were concentrated in three: China, the EU and the US.

    Intervening in markets

    Generally, industrial policy has been out of favour with mainstream economists. It is very hard to get right as it relies on an in-depth knowledge of industries as well as an ability to predict the future.

    Providing funding for one sector means less funding available for others. This could undermine new technologies or other as-yet unseen opportunities. It involves shifting resources from existing, efficient uses to less efficient uses.

    It rarely works. A prime example are the many countries that have spent billions of dollars trying to recreate a domestic Silicon Valley with no success.

    However, Trump is trying to do just that, on an economy-wide scale, mainly through tariffs. The tariffs announced also imply the US will go it alone. The approach takes fragmentation to a new level, where bilateral negotiations are the name of the game.

    Shifting global alliances

    Meanwhile the response from other nations such as Canada, Southeast Asian economies and even Europe, is to diversify and form new alliances without the US.

    Indeed, the Canadian Prime Minister’s first trip overseas was not, as tradition dictates, to the US, but to Europe and the UK, whom he dubbed “reliable” partners.

    Becoming more isolated and pushing other countries to China may not be what the US intends, but it is happening.

    Last week, Japan and South Korea announced a joint strategy with China to promote regional trade. The EU’s trade representative went to Beijing shortly after the tariff announcement where the two nations announced plans to “deepen trade and investment” ties.

    The risks of highly integrated supply chains in the face of security concerns, or changes in a trading partner’s domestic policy, have become glaringly clear.

    How countries choose to address these concerns, especially through the widespread use of industrial policy, will create further disruption to markets. While it is considered politically expedient for security concerns, this will raise prices and limit choice in domestic markets. As the old adage reminds us, there is no free lunch.

    Susan Stone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bringing manufacturing back from overseas isn’t an easy solution to Trump’s trade war – https://theconversation.com/bringing-manufacturing-back-from-overseas-isnt-an-easy-solution-to-trumps-trade-war-253744

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How to build a cinematic universe: the secret to Marvel’s enormous success among a history of failures

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Tran, Academic Tutor at Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of Technology

    Since Iron Man hit the big screen in 2008, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has made more than US$30 billion, from films to series, to merchandise and comics. As scholars and the press have noted, key to its success is the use of a highly gripping and elaborate “shared universe”.

    A number of shared universes have popped up since the MCU, including Legendary Pictures’ MonsterVerse (featuring Godzilla and King Kong), James Wan’s Conjuring universe, the Star Wars universe and the rebooted DC Universe.

    You might be surprised to hear they’ve actually been around for a very long time – but most of them fail to really get off the ground.

    The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s roaring success has set a high bar for other projects.
    IMDB

    What is a shared universe?

    The definition of a “shared universe” is a bit tricky to pin down, as it overlaps heavily with related concepts such as spin-offs, crossovers and franchises.

    At its simplest, you can think of a shared universe as a narrative world made up of at least two texts (such as film, television, video games or books) that are distinct, but with overlapping narrative elements.

    The texts may have different main characters, different stories, or even different settings – but there will be, at the minimum, some evidence they take place within the same broader world.

    Early shared universes

    Shared universes have been a staple in storytelling since the dawn of mass media – and not just in cinema.

    One of the first shared universes was The Human Comedy (La Comédie humaine) series (1829–48) by French novelist and playwright Honoré de Balzac.

    Honoré de Balzac’s (1799-1850) novel sequence La Comédie humaine presents a panorama of post-Napoleonic French life.
    Wiki

    Set against the French Restoration, following the fall of Napoleon Bonaparte, Balzac’s sprawling world spans more than 90 novels and charts the complexity of post-revolution life.

    Another early example from literature is L. Frank Baum’s Oz universe. After Baum grew tired of the Oz books, he wrote The Sea Faeries (1911) as the start of a new series. Its lack of critical reception forced him to return to Oz, but not before bringing some Sea Faerie characters along to the Oz universe with him.

    The shared universe trend continued in the early 1900s with writers such as Isaac Asimov, Robert E. Howard and H.P. Lovecraft, and would become a mainstay in sci-fi and fantasy.

    However, it was arguably television that made shared universes mainstream. This started as early as the 1960s with The Danny Thomas Show and its spin-off The Andy Griffith Show. Other notable examples include the Cheers spin-offs, the Law & Order franchise and the Vampire Diaries universe.

    Television’s episodic form – perpetually stuck in the second act – lends itself to spin-offs. Why risk time and money on something new when a fan-favourite character can get their own show, with the prestablished audience (hopefully) migrating over?

    Before Marvel came thundering along

    One of the earliest cinematic universes was Universal’s original Monsters franchise, beginning in 1931 with the films Dracula and Frankenstein.

    This universe was made up of horror characters including Dracula, Frankenstein’s monster and the Wolf Man. Crossover offerings included Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man (1943) and House of Frankenstein (1944).

    Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man stars Lon Chaney Jr. as The Wolf Man and Bela Lugosi as Frankenstein’s monster.
    IMDB

    But this attempt at a coherent world was haphazard. Continuity was often ignored or contradicted, with post-editing decisions cutting out crucial story connectivity.

    For example, in The Ghost of Frankenstein (1942), Ygor’s brain transplant is what allows the monster to speak, yet this element is omitted from later films.

    Difficult beginnings

    Only a handful of cinematic universes have been truly successful. Following the MCU’s triumph, Warner Bros. attempted a King Arthur universe with King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (2017), but it flopped.

    Sony then tried (and failed) to begin a franchise with Robin Hood (2018) that would spin off to his many merry men.

    And it would be remiss to not mention Univeral’s attempt at recapturing its original Monster universe with Tom Cruise’s The Mummy (2017). This film was supposed to be the beginning of the so-called “Dark Universe” which – you guessed it – never happened.

    The trifecta you need for success

    One cultural character with great success in cinematic universes is Godzilla. The radioactive reptile has been a hit in two separate shared universes: first in Toho Studios’ Japanese live action films, and more recently in Legendary Pictures’ MonsterVerse.

    The latter has grossed more than US$2 billion worldwide, and given us five major films including Godzilla (2014) and Kong: Skull Island (2017), as well as two spin-off shows that have begun production on their second seasons.

    An experienced screenwriter explained what makes a successful franchise to media scholar Henry Jenkins:

    When I first started, you would pitch a story because without a good story, you didn’t really have a film. Later, once sequels started to take off, you pitched a character because a good character could support multiple stories. And now, you pitch a world because a world can support multiple characters and multiple stories across multiple media.

    It is the trifecta of story, characters and world that gives rise to a successful shared universe. And the MCU and MonsterVerse both provide captivating worlds in which more characters and stories can always be added.

    Marvel films are by no means groundbreaking, as they follow the typical heroes journey of good versus evil. But they leverage comic book characters that had already captivated fans through a different medium.

    Also, the MCU was meticulously planned from the beginning: one universe populated with several heroes was always the endgame. As a result, Marvel has managed to transform C- and D-list superheroes into household names.

    Meanwhile, the MonsterVerse draws audiences in with the sheer spectacle of massive titans – who were also already well-known – engaging in action-packed battles.

    In both cases, there are always more heroes to appear, and more titans to fight.

    So, can we expect major studios to continue to try and capture lighting in a bottle, like Disney has with the MCU? Unequivocally, yes. But what might change is the approach.

    Failed cinematic universe attempts from the past had many reasons for failing – whether it was media constraints, or trying to capitalise on the hype instead of actually delivering a compelling fictional world. Creators of the future have a higher bar to meet.

    Vincent Tran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to build a cinematic universe: the secret to Marvel’s enormous success among a history of failures – https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-cinematic-universe-the-secret-to-marvels-enormous-success-among-a-history-of-failures-250510

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why some storms brew up to extreme dimensions in the middle of America – and why it’s happening more often

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

    Floodwaters rise in downtown Hopkinsville, Ky., on April 4, 2025. AP Photo/George Walker IV

    A powerful storm system that stalled over states from Texas to Ohio for several days in early April 2025 wreaked havoc across the region, with deadly tornadoes, mudslides and flooding as rivers rose. More than a foot of rain fell in several areas.

    As a climate scientist who studies the water cycle, I often get questions about how extreme storms like these form and what climate change has to do with it. There’s a recipe for extreme storms, with two key ingredients.

    Recipe for a storm

    The essential conditions for storms with heavy downpours to form are moisture and atmospheric instability.

    First, in order for a storm to develop, the air needs to contain enough moisture. That moisture comes from water evaporating off oceans, lakes and land, and from trees and other plants.

    The amount of moisture the air can hold depends on its temperature. The higher the temperature, the more moisture air can hold, and the greater potential for heavy downpours. This is because at higher temperatures water molecules have more kinetic energy and therefore are more likely to exist in the vapor phase. The maximum amount of moisture possible in the air increases at about 7% per degree Celsius.

    Search and rescue firefighters check on residents in a neighborhood in Frankfort, Ky., on April 6. Floodwater filled streets downtown and in several neighborhoods in the state capital.
    AP Photo/Jon Cherry

    Warm air also supplies storm systems with more energy. When that vapor starts to condense into water or ice as it cools, it releases large amount of energy, known as latent heat. This additional energy fuels the storm system, leading to stronger winds and greater atmospheric instability.

    That leads us to the second necessary condition for a storm: atmospheric instability.

    Atmospheric instability has two components: rising air and wind shear, which is created as wind speed changes with height. The rising air, or updraft, is essential because air cools as it moves up, and as a result, water vapor condenses to form precipitation.

    As the air cools at high altitudes, it starts to sink, forming a downdraft of cool and dry air on the edge of a storm system.

    When there is little wind shear, the downdraft can suppress the updraft, and the storm system quickly dissipates as it exhausts the local moisture in the air. However, strong wind shear can tilt the storm system, so that the downdraft occurs at a different location, and the updraft of warm moist air can continue, supplying the storm with moisture and energy. This often leads to strong storm systems that can spawn tornadoes.

    Extreme downpours hit the Midwest

    It is precisely a combination of these conditions that caused the prolonged, extensive precipitation that the Midwest and Southern states saw in early April.

    The Midwest is prone to extreme storms, particularly during spring. Spring is a transition time when the cold and dry air mass from the Arctic, which dominates the region in winter, is gradually being pushed away by warm and moist air from the Gulf that dominates the region in summer.

    This clash of air masses creates atmosphere instability at the boundary, where the warm and less dense air is pushed upward above the cold and denser air, creating precipitation.

    A cold front forms when a cold air mass pushes away a warm air mass. A warm front forms when the warm air mass pushes to replace the cold air mass. A cold front usually moves faster than a warm front, but the speed is related to the temperature difference between the two air masses.

    The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio.

    The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form.

    What global warming has to do with storms

    As global temperatures rise, the warming air creates conditions that are more conducive to extreme precipitation.

    The warmer air can mean more moisture, leading to wetter and stronger storms. And since most significant warming occurs near the surface, while the upper atmosphere is cooling, this can increase wind shear and the atmospheric instability that sets the stage for strong storms.

    Polar regions are also warming two to three times as fast as the global average, reducing the temperature gradient between the poles and equator. That can weaken the global winds. Most of the weather systems in the continental U.S. are modulated by the polar jet stream, so a weaker jet stream can slow the movement of storms, creating conditions for prolonged precipitation events.

    All of these create conditions that make extreme storms and flooding much more likely in the future.

    Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why some storms brew up to extreme dimensions in the middle of America – and why it’s happening more often – https://theconversation.com/why-some-storms-brew-up-to-extreme-dimensions-in-the-middle-of-america-and-why-its-happening-more-often-254123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: These complementary therapies may soon be eligible for private health insurance rebates

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Wardle, Professor of Public Health, Southern Cross University

    Rui Dias/Pexels

    Private health insurers may soon be able to offer rebates for seven complementary therapies previously prohibited.

    This includes some movement therapies – Pilates, yoga, tai chi and Alexander technique, which teaches body awareness and posture – as well as naturopathy, shiatsu (Japanese massage) and Western herbal medicine.

    These are the recommendations from a government-commissioned review chaired by former Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd. I was part of a committee supporting the review.

    The review assessed 16 natural therapies that are currently prohibited from private health insurance cover.

    It recommended nine therapies stay on the prohibited list because the evidence doesn’t support their use:

    • aromatherapy (which uses essential oils for treatment)
    • Bowen therapy (where pressure is applied in small movements on parts of the body)
    • the Buteyko method (breath training)
    • Feldenkrais (movement therapy)
    • homeopathy (where practitioners give patients diluted substances)
    • iridology (studying patterns in the eye)
    • kinesiology (studying body movement)
    • reflexology (where pressure is applied to the feet)
    • Rolfing (hands-on manipulation of the body).

    Therapies were recommended for re-inclusion where there was “moderate certainty evidence of their clinical effectiveness for at least one health outcome in one health condition”.

    In other words, therapies recommended for inclusion “probably” or “are likely to” work for at least one condition, compared to not using any treatment.

    But they weren’t included on the list for re-inclusion if they “might” work in some conditions.

    You won’t be able to claim for aromatherapy on your private health insurance.
    Pexels/Mark Production

    Why the reassessment?

    The 16 therapies were originally prohibited from private health insurance coverage in 2019. This followed a 2015 government review which found the therapies didn’t have significant evidence showing they were clinically effective.

    However, a number of commentators, including me, had identified a number of concerns that the methods used may not have accurately captured the relevant evidence. Much research on shiatsu, for example, is labelled as acupressure or massage. And there were many other inconsistencies across the reviews.



    Read more:
    Going to the naturopath or a yoga class? Your private health won’t cover it

    To ensure a robust and rigorous review, then-health minister Greg Hunt asked the National Health and Medical Research Council to convene a panel of research experts to help coordinate and compile review. An advisory panel was also set up, which included experts in natural therapies, consumer perspectives and research.

    To improve transparency and inform future decisions, all parts of the review process are available online.

    What happens next?

    This doesn’t necessarily mean your private health insurer will start covering previously excluded natural therapies.

    For one thing, the minister still needs to sign off on recommendations before they can be implemented in practice.

    Lifting of the prohibition will only allow your insurer to cover the therapy, not require it. The decision on whether your insurer will start to cover naturopathy, Pilates, yoga or the other therapies on the list will be up to individual insurers.

    When will the decision be reviewed?

    It’s unclear how, or if, ongoing evaluations will consider whether natural therapies are included in private health insurance. This will depend on how the government implements these recommendations.

    However, the panel chair recommended the review should form a foundation for better understanding the role of natural therapies.

    There may be a future role for some therapies but only in specific circumstances.

    The 2015 review, for example, spoke relatively positively about the potential for the Buteyko method in reducing reliance on medication use in asthmatics. But this alone did not meet the criteria for re-inclusion in either the previous or current review.

    Improving research and practice

    The review also identified several quality and reporting issues across natural therapies research that require further work to address.

    Work will be needed to continue to improve practice in the therapies added to the eligibility list.
    Robert Kneschke/Shutterstock

    Researchers conducting natural therapy trials aren’t always required to provide detailed descriptions of therapies. This can impact evaluation.

    It’s difficult to answer, for example, whether an Alexander technique trial used a trained or untrained practitioner. Or whether a myofascial release study was delivered in Rolfing or physiotherapy practice. Or whether a herbal medicine study was really a study of naturopathic practice.

    Making all the work and documents of the review publicly available (even the data considered out of scope) will help strengthen future research and practice. It can also help researchers and policymakers identify the role these therapies have outside private health insurance – or whether they should have any role at all.

    Even for those therapies that may be reintroduced, work will be needed to continue to improve practice, educational accreditation, registration for some therapists, and better accountability of standards.

    With more than half of Australians using some form of natural therapy, we need an evidence-based approach.

    Jon Wardle was part of the both the National Health and Medical Research Council Natural Therapies Working Committee and the Department of Health Natural Therapies Review Expert Advisory Panel which suppported Professor Kidd in conducting the review. However, this article represents his personal academic opinion and does not represent the opinions of either of these organisations.

    He is Foundation Director of the National Centre for Naturopathic Medicine and the Maurice Blackmore Chair of Naturopathic Medicine at Southern Cross University, which provides education to one of the therapies that was included in this review (naturopathy). He has received funding from multiple foundations and agencies to conduct research on several of the therapies included in this review.

    – ref. These complementary therapies may soon be eligible for private health insurance rebates – https://theconversation.com/these-complementary-therapies-may-soon-be-eligible-for-private-health-insurance-rebates-253841

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A grab bag of campaign housing policies. But will they fix the affordability crisis beyond the election?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

    Secure and affordable housing is a fundamental human right for all Australians.

    Therefore, it is unsurprising the election campaign is being played out against a backdrop of heightened voter anxiety about rental stress and housing affordability. A growing number of people are unable to access housing that meets their needs.

    And it’s not just low-income earners who are affected by housing pressures. It is also the millions of people who make up middle Australia; the very group that will help determine the election outcome.

    The solution to Australia’s housing problem is complex. We need to start thinking differently about what reform might look like.

    No cheap rents

    For most Australians, housing is their biggest and most unavoidable bill.

    The average national weekly rent for a unit is A$566 a week. It is even higher in capital cities. To afford this comfortably, renters need an annual income of $130,000.

    But for someone on the median income of $72,592 (or $58,575 after tax) half their pay packet is being swallowed by their weekly rent.

    This significantly exceeds the 30% benchmark that is a useful measure of housing affordability stress.

    Million-dollar homes

    The raw numbers are just as eye-watering for home ownership.

    The mean price of a residential dwelling in Australia is around $977,000. For house hunters in New South Wales, the figure is even higher at $1.2 million.

    Rapidly rising house prices over the past few years have contributed to larger home loans and more people with a mortgage.

    Only 13% of homes sold in 2022–23 were affordable for a median income household, with housing prices increasing more rapidly than wages.

    The cascading price pressures mean first home buyers are finding it harder to save for a deposit.

    Policy options

    There is an urgent need for housing reform to overcome the affordability and accessibility challenges. There is no shortage of options available to policymakers.

    For starters, planning rules and zoning regulations could be eased to facilitate more construction. Vacant commercial properties and office spaces could be repurposed as housing.

    Another option includes removing barriers to constructing prefabricated homes, which are more efficient and affordable to build.

    Time to be bold

    Housing reform often involves debate around negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions for property investors. There are mixed results regarding how they would impact housing affordability and accessibility. The unpopularity of such policies at the 2016 and 2019 elections have since hindered any changes.

    But more radical reforms could be considered. They include applying negative gearing to first home buyers, who would benefit by claiming the mortgage interest on their property against their income. The United States allows home-owner couples to claim mortgage interest on the first US$750,000 (A$1.19 million) of their loan to help them secure a home.



    Read more:
    The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage

    Overseas experience

    The US policy highlights how high housing costs are not exclusive to Australia.

    We could learn from other initiatives adopted overseas. For example, a bylaw passed in Montreal, Canada, requires new developments to include 20% social housing, 20% affordable housing and 20% family units.

    Further, Vienna is known for its progressive social housing policies, which include rental caps and housing security. The housing is high quality and often includes access to communal pools, child care, libraries and other facilities.

    Here in Australia, the major political parties are mindful that the high cost of housing is political kryptonite. They are fighting the May election armed with policies aimed at improving affordability and availability. But will these policies go far enough?



    Read more:
    The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage

    What the major parties are offering

    Labor plans to increase housing supply by 1.2 million homes over five years by changing zoning and planning rules. This includes 20,000 social housing homes and 10,000 affordable rentals for front-line workers such as police and nurses. It will also increase tax incentives for the build-to-rent program to increase rental supply.

    These policies are likely to improve affordability and accessibility for lower income earners. However, there will be a wait while homes are constructed. It is also expensive at around $10 billion.

    To increase supply, Labor will invest in prefabricated and modular homes, including a national certification system to streamline approvals.

    Labor will also expand the Help-to-Buy scheme so more Australians can purchase their first home, although this may push-up prices through increased demand.

    The Liberal Party’s policy centrepiece is $5 billion to fast track essential housing infrastructure such as water and sewage, to unlock up to 500,000 homes.

    The Coalition is also vowing to free up more housing by reducing immigration by 25% and capping the number of international students.

    For first home buyers, the Liberals want to allow early access to superannuation of up to $50,000, but studies suggest this could backfire by increasing house prices and hurting retirement savings.

    Dream turns to a nightmare

    Voters may find merit in one or more of the proposed policies, but bipartisanship will be essential if we are to solve the housing crisis, regardless of the election outcome.

    And genuine reform involves more than sugar-hit policies that might find favour during election campaigns. It requires bold, decisive action with investment in areas that benefit those most in need.

    Without genuine reform, even more Australians will struggle to put a roof over their heads. The ramifications will be devastating to Australia’s social and economic future.

    The Australian dream of owning a home will be at risk of becoming an even bigger nightmare.

    This is the third article in our special series, Australia’s Policy Challenges. You can read the other articles here and here

    Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia, the Financial Advice Association Australia and President Elect of the Academy of Financial Services in the United States. Michelle is an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee. Michelle Cull co-founded the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle has previously volunteered as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. A grab bag of campaign housing policies. But will they fix the affordability crisis beyond the election? – https://theconversation.com/a-grab-bag-of-campaign-housing-policies-but-will-they-fix-the-affordability-crisis-beyond-the-election-252185

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ChatGPT just passed the Turing test. But that doesn’t mean AI is now as smart as humans

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zena Assaad, Senior Lecturer, School of Engineering, Australian National University

    Hanna Barakat & Cambridge Diversity Fund/Better Images of AI, CC BY-SA

    There have been several headlines over the past week about an AI chatbot officially passing the Turing test.

    These news reports are based on a recent preprint study by two researchers at the University of California San Diego in which four large language models (LLMs) were put through the Turing test. One model – OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 – was deemed indistinguishable from a human more than 70% of the time.

    The Turing test has been popularised as the ultimate indicator of machine intelligence. However, there is disagreement about the validity of this test. In fact, it has a contentious history which calls into question how effective it really is at measuring machine intelligence.

    So what does this mean for the significance of this new study?

    What did the study find?

    The preprint study by cognitive scientists Cameron Jones and Benjamin Bergen was published in March, but has not yet been peer-reviewed. It tested 4 LLMs: ELIZA, GPT-4o, LLaMa-3.1-405B, and GPT-4.5.

    The tests consisted of participants completing eight rounds of conversations in which they acted as an interrogator exchanging text messages with two witnesses simultaneously. One witness was a human and the other an LLM. Some 284 participants were randomly assigned to be either the interrogator or the witness.

    Participants were required to interact with both witnesses simultaneously across a split screen for five minutes, with the test interface mimicking that of a conventional messaging interface. Following this interaction, they decided which witness was a human, and which was an AI chatbot.

    Participants judged GPT-4.5 to be the human 73% of the time, and LLaMa-3.1-405B to be the human 56% of the time. The other two models (ELIZA and GPT-4o) only fooled participants 23% and 21% of the time respectively.

    Participants in the study judged OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 to be human 73% of the time.
    Ascannio/Shutterstock

    What exactly is the Turing Test?

    The first iteration of the Turing test was presented by English mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing in a 1948 paper titled “Intelligent Machinery”. It was originally proposed as an experiment involving three people playing chess with a theoretical machine referred to as a paper machine, two being players and one being an operator.

    In the 1950 publication “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”, Turing reintroduced the experiment as the “imitation game” and claimed it was a means of determining a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to a human. It involved three participants: Participant A was a woman, participant B a man and participant C either gender.

    Through a series of questions, participant C is required to determine whether “X is A and Y is B” or “X is B and Y is A”, with X and Y representing the two genders.

    Alan Turing in 1951.
    Elliott & Fry/Wikipedia

    A proposition is then raised: “What will happen when a machine takes the part of A in this game? Will the interrogator decide wrongly as often when the game is played like this as he does when the game is played between a man and a woman?”

    These questions were intended to replace the ambiguous question, “Can machines think?”. Turing claimed this question was ambiguous because it required an understanding of the terms “machine” and “think”, of which “normal” uses of the words would render a response to the question inadequate.

    Over the years, this experiment was popularised as the Turing test. While the subject matter varied, the test remained a deliberation on whether “X is A and Y is B” or “X is B and Y is A”.

    Why is it contentious?

    While popularised as a means of testing machine intelligence, the Turing test is not unanimously accepted as an accurate means to do so. In fact, the test is frequently challenged.

    There are four main objections to the Turing test:

    1. Behaviour vs thinking. Some researchers argue the ability to “pass” the test is a matter of behaviour, not intelligence. Therefore it would not be contradictory to say a machine can pass the imitation game, but cannot think.
    2. Brains are not machines. Turing makes assertions the brain is a machine, claiming it can be explained in purely mechanical terms. Many academics refute this claim and question the validity of the test on this basis.
    3. Internal operations. As computers are not humans, their process for reaching a conclusion may not be comparable to a person’s, making the test inadequate because a direct comparison cannot work.
    4. Scope of the test. Some researchers believe only testing one behaviour is not enough to determine intelligence.
    Even though GPT-4.5 may have passed the Turing test, this doesn’t mean it’s as intelligent as humans.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    So is an LLM as smart as a human?

    While the preprint article claims GPT-4.5 passed the Turing test, it also states:

    the Turing test is a measure of substitutability: whether a system can stand-in for a real person without […] noticing the difference.

    This implies the researchers do not support the idea of the Turing test being a legitimate indication of human intelligence. Rather, it is an indication of the imitation of human intelligence – an ode to the origins of the test.

    It is also worth noting that the conditions of the study were not without issue. For example, a five minute testing window is relatively short.

    In addition, each of the LLMs was prompted to adopt a particular persona, but it’s unclear what the details and impact of the “personas” were on the test.

    For now it is safe to say GPT-4.5 is not as intelligent as humans – although it may do a reasonable job of convincing some people otherwise.

    Zena Assaad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ChatGPT just passed the Turing test. But that doesn’t mean AI is now as smart as humans – https://theconversation.com/chatgpt-just-passed-the-turing-test-but-that-doesnt-mean-ai-is-now-as-smart-as-humans-253946

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Winston Peters at 80: the populist’s populist clocks up 50 years of political comebacks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Teaching Fellow in Politics and International Relations, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Getty Images

    Winston Peters turns a venerable 80 on April 11, but he showed no sign of retiring as New Zealand’s archetypal populist during his recent state of the nation speech. He especially enjoyed the hecklers, gleefully telling them one by one to get out.

    As ever, his detractors became extras in the Winston Peters show – something of a trademark in his long political career. As well as a milestone birthday, 2025 will mark 50 years since Peters’ first election campaign in 1975.

    In that first attempt, he ran unsuccessfully as the National Party candidate for the Northern Māori seat. In 1978, he won in Hunua, but only after a judicial recount. Already we can see a pattern: a dogged determination to come back and a lawyer’s litigious streak.

    His political instincts were formed in that era between 1975 and 1984 under prime minister Robert Muldoon, National’s original, pugnacious populist. It implanted pride in his nation, economic protectionism, and a belief in old-fashioned “common sense” politics.

    Those characteristics could also be his undoing. In 1991, Peters was sacked from Jim Bolger’s National cabinet for publicly criticising cabinet colleagues. He was later kicked out of the National caucus entirely and then vacated his seat.

    As his party website explains in retrospect, he’d questioned “the neoliberal policy agenda” and paid the price. He formed NZ First in 1993 and won back the seat of Tauranga. Ever since, the party known mockingly as “Winston First” has been inextricably identified with its (thus far) one and only leader.

    Winston Peters thanks supporters after winning the Tauranga seat for NZ First in 1993.
    Getty Images

    Coalitions of the willing

    Any mention of Winston Peters’ name gets a reaction, be it love, loathing or wry admiration. For the political scientist, though, his career is remarkable for its many ups and downs, and for sheer longevity.

    In New Zealand’s first proportional representation election in 1996, NZ First, still only three years old, won all of the (then five) Māori electorates. With 13.4% of the party vote (its best result ever), NZ First gained 17 seats, handing Peters a kingmaker role in the government formation negotiations.

    The upshot was a National-NZ First coalition, which broke up acrimoniously in 1998 after a disagreement about a proposal to sell Wellington Airport brought existing tensions between the parties to a head.

    At the 1999 election, NZ First lost the five Māori seats and its party vote plummeted to 4.3%. It got back into parliament only thanks to Peters holding Tauranga by a fingernail: a mere 63 vote majority.

    Dumped by Māori voters, he turned his attention to New Zealand’s growing retirement generations and climbed on board the anti-immigration bandwagon. In 2003, Peters launched an attack on “Third World immigrants” that rattled the National Party’s cage so hard it felt compelled to launch its own populist campaign.

    Then National leader Don Brash’s infamous speech at Orewa in 2004 centred around an alleged “dangerous drift towards racial separatism”. The country became polarised around Māori aspirations and the Treaty of Waitangi, not dissimilar to the effect today of the Treaty Principles Bill.

    Being a populist, Peters is sometimes mischaracterised as far right. But the more significant aspect of his career has been his centrist aptitude for collaborating with either National or Labour, depending on the political wind.

    Between 2005 and 2008, Peters supported Helen Clark’s Labour-led government, enjoying the plum job of foreign minister. But in 2008, National’s John Key categorically refused to work with Peters in government, and NZ First fell to 4.1% at the election.

    With no local electorate win this time, Peters was banished to the political wilderness. Many thought (or hoped) this would spell the end of his career. But he was back in 2011, aiming to be in opposition against Key’s National government. He succeeded in this – and confounded his critics – with a party vote of 6.6%.

    Winston Peters and Labour’s Jacinda Ardern sign the coalition agreement in 2017.
    Getty Images

    COVID and comebacks

    The strategy of seeing out the Key (and successor Bill English) years on the cross benches worked well, with the 2014 election delivering a party-vote boost to 8.7%.

    Peters’ next big break came after the 2017 election when he once again played kingmaker. Although National won the most seats, Peters chose a coalition with Jacinda Ardern’s Labour, with support from the Greens.

    But NZ First’s voter-base had been evenly split over supporting a National-led or Labour-led government. Inevitably, the party would be punished for choosing to go with either major party. And indeed, its share dropped from 7.2% in 2017 to 2.6% in the 2020 election – its worst result ever.

    Once again, Peters was cast out into the wilderness, to the undoubted delight of his many detractors. It was over, surely? As the 2023 election approached, there was considerable doubt about Peters making yet another comeback.

    His party was polling better than in 2011, however, and in the end romped home with 6.1% of the vote. Peters used his bargaining power to become foreign minister and deputy prime minister in the current National-led coalition.

    Some may have wondered how the wily old fox found his way back into the coop. But we can trace at least some of the reason back to a stroll Peters took through the COVID protest camp in parliament grounds in February 2022.

    He said he was there to listen, whereas the Ardern government’s refusal to talk with protestors was “just going to make things much worse”. To make his day, parliament’s speaker Trevor Mallard had Peters trespassed from parliament, which only boosted his maverick reputation – and helped pave the way back to power.

    Not his first rodeo

    Peters courted an anti-vax, anti-globalist constituency, promising to “defend freedom” by ending vaccine mandates and holding “a credible fully independent inquiry into New Zealand’s COVID-19 response”.

    Both things were going to happen anyway. But Peters won votes that might otherwise have gone to fringe protest parties, none of which got more than 1.2%.

    Like a Pied Piper in a double-breasted pinstripe suit, he led the disgruntled all the way to the ballot box. One campaign video featured him in cow-cocky gear, mounting a horse and boasting “this is not our first rodeo”. Among the current generation of politicians, only he could have pulled that off.

    Peters possesses a canny political instinct that combines opportunism with attention-grabbing rhetoric. He can drum up enough enthusiasm from target audiences to get his party over (or back over) the 5% MMP threshold.

    His recent declaration of a “war on woke” shows he’s doing it again. He zeros in on a political pain-point to energise a support base and simultaneously enrage opponents. The latter – along with “the mainstream media” – are used as props as he campaigns from one provincial community hall to the next.

    At 80, Peters is as well adapted to posting on Elon Musk’s X as he is to old-school hustings politics. And he’s showing no sign of calling it a day as he prepares to hand over the office of deputy prime minister to ACT’s David Seymour later this year.

    As the 2026 election draws nearer, one thing will be certain – you can’t rule him out. Don’t be surprised if one day we see an AI-generated Winston Peters telling us this is neither his first nor his last rodeo.

    Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Winston Peters at 80: the populist’s populist clocks up 50 years of political comebacks – https://theconversation.com/winston-peters-at-80-the-populists-populist-clocks-up-50-years-of-political-comebacks-253322

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Return’ of the dire wolf is an impressive feat of genetic engineering, not a reversal of extinction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Timothy Hearn, Senior Lecturer in Bioinformatics, Anglia Ruskin University

    Colossal

    Dallas-based biotech company Colossal has announced the birth of three pups bearing the DNA signatures of dire wolves, an iconic predator last seen roaming North America over 10,000 years ago.

    With their names Romulus, Remus and Khaleesi, these pups are playing to the cultural imagination, blending ancient mythology with fantasy fiction. Romulus and Remus nod to the legendary founders of Rome, raised by a wolf, while Khaleesi evokes the dire wolves of Game of Thrones.

    It’s a resurrection story made for the headlines, but beneath the dramatic narrative lies a more nuanced – and more scientifically grounded – story. The birth of these pups is not the return of an extinct species. Instead, it’s a demonstration of how far we’ve come in the toolkit of synthetic biology (a field that involves redesigning systems found in nature), and a reminder of how far we still are from truly reversing extinction.

    Colossal’s work follows in the footsteps of its other high-profile project: the effort to “resurrect” the woolly mammoth. As discussed in a previous Conversation article, that project began with mice carrying mammoth gene traits – early evidence that gene editing could one day produce cold-resistant elephants with mammoth-like characteristics. The dire wolf project is a similar exercise in technological potential, not biological resurrection.

    So what exactly happened in the lab? Scientists at Colossal extracted ancient DNA from fossilised dire wolf remains, including a 13,000-year-old tooth and a 72,000-year-old ear bone. From these samples, they sequenced the genome (the full complement of DNA in cells) and compared it with that of the modern gray wolf.

    They identified approximately 20 genetic differences that were key to the extinct animal’s appearance. These differences represent tiny tweaks in the genetic code known as single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPs.

    ‘Dire wolf’ cubs Romulus and Remus soon after their birth.
    Copyright: Colossal

    These specific SNPs were then edited into the genome of a gray wolf using CRISPR-Cas9, a powerful gene-editing tool that allows for precision edits at the DNA level. The resulting modified cells were used to create embryos, which were implanted into surrogate domestic dogs. The pups that were born exhibit some traits thought to be characteristic of dire wolves: broader shoulders, larger bodies and pale coats.

    However, this raises a critical question: how different is this animal, really?

    To understand the limitations of this approach, consider our closest relatives in the animal kingdom: chimpanzees. Humans and chimpanzees share about 98.8% of their DNA, yet the behavioural, cognitive and physiological differences are clearly profound. While 98.8% sounds very similar, this translates to roughly 35–40 million differences in DNA base pairs.

    Now consider that the evolutionary split between dire wolves and gray wolves took place more than 300,000 years ago – and the two populations will have been diverging genetically for much longer before that. This means there are likely to be many more genetic differences between dire wolves and gray wolves. Editing 20 SNPs – out of billions of base pairs – is a minuscule change in evolutionary terms.

    The result? These animals may look a little like dire wolves, but they are not dire wolves. They are gray wolves with a few cosmetic tweaks. In this light, the project represents a remarkable demonstration of genetic engineering, rather than a literal revival of an extinct species.

    That said, this is still an extraordinary achievement. Extracting usable DNA from ancient remains, accurately sequencing it, identifying meaningful genetic variants and successfully editing them, then raising animals based on that information are all milestones worth celebrating.

    Positive applications – and risks

    The techniques honed in this project could find applications in conservation, especially for endangered species suffering from inbreeding and genetic bottlenecks.

    This work also expands the boundaries of what synthetic biology can do. The ability to dial specific traits in or out of a genome is valuable not just for scientific curiosity, but potentially for public health, agriculture and ecological restoration. But with these new tools come new responsibilities.

    US biotech company Colossal has previously gene-edited mice to have traits from woolly mammoths.
    Copyright: Colossal

    What role will these pseudo-dire wolves play in the wild? Would they behave like the long-extinct predators they mimic, or simply resemble them in form not function? Ecosystems are delicately balanced networks of interaction – adding a creature that is similar but not identical to a former apex predator could have unpredictable consequences.

    The young wolves are reportedly living in a 2,000-acre nature reserve at a secret location. So, while the reserve is surrounded by a 10ft fence, the wolves have plenty of room to roam and could encounter other wildlife.

    Some researchers argue that instead of chasing lost species, we should focus on protecting the biodiversity we still have. Resources poured into de-extinction could arguably be better spent preserving habitats, restoring degraded ecosystems, and preventing modern extinctions.

    Colossal’s dire wolf project is not a resurrection – it is an imitation. But that doesn’t mean it lacks value. It offers a glimpse into the possibilities of genetic science, and raises essential questions about what we mean when we say we are “bringing back” extinct species.

    But in the end, it’s not about whether we can bring back the dead. It’s about what we do with the power to remake the living.

    Timothy Hearn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Return’ of the dire wolf is an impressive feat of genetic engineering, not a reversal of extinction – https://theconversation.com/return-of-the-dire-wolf-is-an-impressive-feat-of-genetic-engineering-not-a-reversal-of-extinction-254098

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From popping painkillers to shortage of sleep, seven common habits that could be harming your kidneys

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    New Africa/Shutterstock

    In the UK, more than 10% of the population is estimated to have some stage of chronic kidney disease and more than 600,000 people develop some form of acute kidney injury – when the kidneys suddenly stop working properly but can recover – each year.

    The kidneys play a vital role in maintaining overall health by filtering waste, excess fluids and electrolytes, such as sodium and potassium, from the blood. They also help regulate blood pressure, red blood cell production and calcium balance in the body. When the kidneys are damaged, their ability to filter waste and maintain balance is compromised, leading to a buildup of toxins, fluid retention and an imbalance in electrolytes. This can cause a range of health problems, from high blood pressure to heart disease and weakened bones. Kidney damage can progress to chronic kidney disease and kidney failure over time.

    Kidney damage, then, can affect almost part of your body – but there are simple lifestyle changes you can make today to avoid harming your kidneys tomorrow.

    Here are seven potentially kidney-harming habits to avoid:

    Using painkillers

    Common over-the-counter anti-inflammatory painkillers like ibuprofen and aspirin can damage the kidney tubules – tiny tubes in the kidneys that return filtered nutrients and fluids back to the blood. The remaining fluid and waste in the renal tubules become urine – and inflammation and reduced blood flow through the kidneys. This is more likely to occur in older people or those with other medical conditions.

    People who already have chronic kidney disease should avoid these painkillers unless they’ve been prescribed by a doctor who can monitor kidney function. To lower the risk of side-effects, use painkillers for the shortest time needed at the recommended dose on the packaging.

    Not drinking enough water

    Water is needed for the kidneys to remove waste. People who don’t drink enough water may be risking kidney damage, especially in hot weather. Concentrated urine from dehydration has higher levels of minerals and other waste products – this increases the risk of kidney stones and urine infections, which may damage the kidneys.



    Read more:
    Don’t like drinking plain water? 10 healthy ideas for staying hydrated this summer

    Some people with health conditions such as liver disease or heart failure may be on restricted fluids. But for the general population, between 1.5 to 2 litres of water (about six to eight cups) daily is recommended.

    Drinking too much alcohol

    The kidneys regulate the water in the body. Alcohol can dehydrate the body, which therefore changes how the kidneys work. Too much alcohol can also raise blood pressure, which damages the kidneys. Most people know that alcohol can contribute to liver disease, but this in turn can harm the kidneys as it means they have to work harder.

    The NHS advises men and women to not drink more than 14 alcohol units per week (ideally spread throughout the week with some alcohol-free days). This equates to one standard glass of wine (two units) or a pint of low-strength beer (two units) per day.

    Smoking

    Most people know that smoking can contribute to cancers and heart disease. But smoking can directly harm the kidneys through multiple mechanisms. Cigarette smoke contains toxic chemicals such as cadmium which may harm the kidneys. Smoking promotes oxidative stress (when harmful molecules called free radicals damage cells in the body) and can narrow the blood vessels and damage the blood vessel lining which can lead to kidney injury.

    Smoking also increases the risk of other conditions that can damage the kidneys, including diabetes and high blood pressure. There is no safe level of smoking, so it’s best to quit with support from a healthcare professional.

    Being overweight

    A healthy body mass index (BMI) is between 18.5 and 24.9. Anything over this is classed as overweight or obese. However, this isn’t the only measure of being overweight – and is sometimes inaccurate. The waist circumference is a good measure of fat around the middle (central obesity) which is shown to increase the risk of heart disease and diabetes – two common causes of kidney disease. Obesity might harm kidneys directly by disrupting fat tissue chemicals.

    Having a healthier diet in conjunction with exercise can help shed the pounds, helping keep your kidneys healthy. Some research has found that physical activity lowers the risk of kidney disease – aim for 30 minutes of aerobic exercise five days a week but build it up slowly.

    Making less healthy food choices

    Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are manufactured foods that contain ingredients such as fats, sugars, salts, and additives including artificial colours, flavourings and preservatives to make them taste better and increase their shelf life.



    Read more:
    Ultra-processed foods: largest ever review shows many ill effects on health – how to understand the evidence

    Examples of UPFs include meats such as sausages, carbonated soft drinks and packaged breads. These foods are linked to various health issues, such as obesity, heart disease and type 2 diabetes. Recently it has also been linked to kidney disease. An American study tracked 14,000 adults for 24 years. Those who ate a lot of ultra-processed foods had a 24% higher risk of kidney disease. Nearly 5,000 of them developed chronic kidney disease.

    Diets high in salt (sodium) can also be problematic, especially in people who already have kidney disease. The kidneys filter excess water from the blood, needing a balance of sodium and potassium. A high salt diet disrupts this balance, reducing kidney function and causing higher blood pressure, which strains the kidneys and can lead to kidney disease.



    Read more:
    Salty foods are making people sick − in part by poisoning their microbiomes

    Stick to a maximum of six grams – or one teaspoon – of salt per day.

    Poor sleep

    There is some evidence that links sleep quality and duration with kidney disease. A study has shown that poor sleep increases the risk of chronic kidney disease. Research differs slightly but having less than six hours or more than ten hours of sleep daily may harm your kidneys. Optimal sleep tends to be between seven to nine hours per night for most people.

    Factors such as age and family history are beyond your control but many habits can be changed to help manage kidney health.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From popping painkillers to shortage of sleep, seven common habits that could be harming your kidneys – https://theconversation.com/from-popping-painkillers-to-shortage-of-sleep-seven-common-habits-that-could-be-harming-your-kidneys-253918

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Great Gatsby at 100: this great American novel is a universal meditation on time and change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By William Blazek, Professor Emeritus of American Literature and Modern Culture, Liverpool Hope University

    One hundred years after its publication, F. Scott Fitzgerald’s third novel, The Great Gatsby – the story of nouveau riche Jay Gatsby’s obsessive quest to win back his lost love, Daisy Buchanan – is best remembered for its depiction of America’s Jazz Age excess, especially through Gatsby’s wildly extravagant parties.

    Readers might also focus on moral questions raised about America’s class and racial divisions, the fundamental inequalities that hinder social progress, and the faulty-but-compelling promise of what a decade later was labelled “the American dream”. These are compelling themes within Fitzgerald’s tightly constructed and brilliantly expressed novel.

    Yet for all of its emphasis on national concerns, the book also contains subject matter of more universal value.

    A passage in the fifth chapter describes an incident during the reunion of Gatsby with the now-married Daisy at the cottage of Nick Carraway, the novel’s first-person narrator.

    Amid awkward uncertainty about achieving his goal of repeating the past by winning Daisy back after five years apart, Gatsby leans his head backward and topples over “a defunct mantelpiece clock”, which he then just manages to catch before it would have smashed on the floor. This incident emphasises an important theme of the novel – a meditation on time and change.

    _This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.

    On one level, the novel presents contrasts between an older, elite moneyed class and emerging groups that have embraced opportunities for success in the entertainment industries of film and theatre. A further social layer is those who have taken underground routes to riches through bootlegging alcohol or manipulating the bond market.

    The socioeconomic and cultural transformations in the US after the first world war are amplified through references to modern technology. In particular, the telephone most often serves to disrupt conversations rather than promote improved communication. There are also Gatsby’s new automobiles, hydroplane, dazzling electric lighting displays and “a machine in the kitchen which could extract the juice of 200 oranges in half an hour”.

    In contrast, Daisy’s husband, Tom, has turned a car garage on his Long Island estate into a stable for his riding horses. In turning the value of horses from work to leisure, he seems to reverse the flow of history.

    Nick, though, is attracted to the dynamic potential for cultural change. He crosses into New York City over the Queensboro Bridge, a recently completed steel cantilever construction – the longest in the US at the time:

    Anything can happen now that we’ve slid over this bridge, I thought; anything at all.

    The “defunct mantelpiece clock” and its near demise could also represent Fitzgerald’s rejection of a literary inheritance. The author avoids the relative certainty of 19th-century realism’s character development and linear narrative chronology. Instead, he emphasises modernism’s fragmentation and ambiguity.

    The trailer for the 2012 adaptation of The Great Gatsby.

    Time shifts and nature’s power

    In the novel, Gatsby’s backstory is slowly and uncertainly revealed. Vital information about his youth is delayed until the final chapter. Born James Gatz on a poor North Dakota farm, the mysterious Jay Gatsby emerges through Nick’s memory.

    Nick recounts conversations with Gatsby, hears rumours, speaks with others and reads newspaper reports about him. He also imagines a great deal, delivering scattered details and making conjectures in jumbled time. “He told me all this much later, but I’ve put it down here” is one example.

    F. Scott Fitzgerald in 1921.
    Wiki Commons

    Some simple dialogue between Gatsby and Nick hints at the seemingly random, but actually carefully designed, narrative sequencing. Gatsby invites Nick to come along for a morning flight in his newly purchased hydroplane. “What time?” Nick asks, and the reply is: “Anytime that suits you best.”

    The Great Gatsby’s fractured sense of time challenges literary convention. It also reflects a world in flux after the first world war, and the moral as well as economic adjustments of the roaring twenties. But another crucial and often undervalued aspect of the novel deserves further attention: the power of nature.

    Natural imagery infuses the text, as the Sun and Moon, rain and wind, the stars and seasons counterbalance disorderly human time. A sense of cosmic, eternal time contends with the vanities of daily life and inevitable mortality.

    Nick connects Gatsby’s inevitable death with nature’s cyclical movements:

    He must have looked up at an unfamiliar sky through frightening leaves and shivered as he found what a grotesque thing a rose is and how raw the sunlight was upon the scarcely created grass. A new world, material without being real.

    Besides being an example of Fitzgerald’s radiant prose, this passage is both a comment on the delusions of American ambition, and an assertion of nature’s timeless presence and enduring authority.

    Beyond the canon

    As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is William Blazek’s suggestion:

    Abraham Cahan (circa 1913).
    Wiki Commons

    The Rise of David Levinsky by Abraham Cahan (1917) chronicles the Jewish title character, starting with his early life in imperial Russia, where he devotes himself to religious study.

    After emigrating to the US he abandons his spiritual calling and becomes a success in the garment industry. Yet despite his wealth, he is essentially unhappy and lonely.

    Cahan, a Lithuanian-born Jewish American socialist, modelled his story on another rags-to-riches tale, The Rise of Silas Lapham by William Dean Howells (1885), which also contrasts American materialism with moral goodness.

    William Blazek is professor emeritus at Liverpool Hope University and vice president of the F. Scott Fitzgerald Society. In 2025 the F. Scott Fitzgerald Society will hold its 17th biannual international conference from 22-28 June in New York City: A Fitzgerald Centennial: The Great Gatsby, New York, and New Perspectives. Visit https://fscottfitzgeraldsociety.org/

    – ref. The Great Gatsby at 100: this great American novel is a universal meditation on time and change – https://theconversation.com/the-great-gatsby-at-100-this-great-american-novel-is-a-universal-meditation-on-time-and-change-242967

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: China plans to build the world’s largest dam – but what does this mean for India and Bangladesh downstream?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mehebub Sahana, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow, Geography, University of Manchester

    The proposed dam will span the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, the world’s deepest. Biao Liu / shutterstock

    China recently approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam, across the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. When fully up and running, it will be the world’s largest power plant – by some distance.

    Yet many are worried the dam will displace local people and cause huge environmental disruption. This is particularly the case in the downstream nations of India and Bangladesh, where that same river is known as the Brahmaputra.

    The proposed dam highlights some of the geopolitical issues raised by rivers that cross international borders. Who owns the river itself, and who has the right to use its water? Do countries have obligations not to pollute shared rivers, or to keep their shipping lanes open? And when a drop of rain falls on a mountain, do farmers in a different country thousands of miles downstream have a claim to use it? Ultimately, we still don’t know enough about these questions of river rights and ownership to settle disputes easily.

    The Yarlung Tsangpo begins on the Tibetan Plateau, in a region sometimes referred to as the world’s third pole as its glaciers contain the largest stores of ice outside of the Arctic and Antarctica. A series of huge rivers tumble down from the plateau and spread across south and south-east Asia. Well over a billion people depend on them, from Pakistan to Vietnam.

    Yet the region is already under immense stress as global warming melts glaciers and changes rainfall patterns. Reduced water flow in the dry season, coupled with sudden releases of water during monsoons, could intensify both water scarcity and flooding, endangering millions in India and Bangladesh.

    The construction of large dams in the Himalayas has historically disrupted river flows, displaced people, destroyed fragile ecosystems and increased risks of floods. The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Dam will likely be no exception.

    The dam will sit along the tectonic boundary where the Indian and Eurasian plates converge to form the Himalayas. This makes the region particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and sudden floods when natural dams burst.

    Downstream, the Brahmaputra is one of south Asia’s mightiest rivers and has been integral to human civilisation for thousands of years. It’s one of the world’s most sediment-rich rivers, which helps form a huge and fertile delta.

    Yet a dam of this scale would trap massive amounts of sediment upstream, disrupting its flow downstream. This could make farming less productive, threatening food security in one of the world’s most densely populated regions.

    The Sundarbans mangrove forest, a Unesco World Heritage Site that stretches across most of coastal Bangladesh and a portion of India, is particularly vulnerable. Any disruption to the balance of sediment could accelerate coastal erosion and make the already low lying area more vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    The Brahmaputra eventually flows into a region of fertile fields and mangrove forests.
    Sk Hasan Ali / shutterstock

    Unfortunately, despite the transboundary nature of the Brahmaputra, there is no comprehensive treaty governing it. This lack of formal agreements complicates efforts to ensure China, India and Bangladesh share the water equitably and work together to prepare for disasters.

    These sorts of agreements are perfectly possible: 14 countries plus the European Union are parties to a convention on protecting the Danube, for instance. But the Brahmaputra is not alone. Many transboundary rivers in the global south face similar neglect and inadequate research.

    Researching rivers

    In our recent study, colleagues and I analysed 4,713 case studies across 286 transboundary river basins. We wanted to assess how much academic research there was on each, what themes it focused on, and how that varied depending on the type of river. We found that, while large rivers in the global north receive considerable academic attention, many equally important rivers in the global south remain overlooked.

    What research there is in the global south is predominantly led by institutions from the global north. This dynamic influences research themes and locations, often sidelining the most pressing local issues. We found that research in the global north tends to focus on technical aspects of river management and governance, whereas studies in the global south primarily examine conflicts and resource competition.

    In Asia, research is concentrated on large, geopolitically significant basins like the Mekong and Indus. Smaller rivers where water crises are most acute are often neglected. Something similar is happening in Africa, where studies focus on climate change and water-sharing disputes, yet a lack of infrastructure limits broader research efforts.

    Small and medium-sized river basins, critical to millions of people in the global south, are among the most neglected in research. This oversight has serious real-world consequences. We still don’t know enough about water scarcity, pollution, and climate change impacts in these regions, which makes it harder to develop effective governance and threatens the livelihoods of everyone who depends on these rivers.

    A more inclusive approach to research will ensure the sustainable management of transboundary rivers, safeguarding these vital resources for future generations.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    This article is based on research funded by the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. China plans to build the world’s largest dam – but what does this mean for India and Bangladesh downstream? – https://theconversation.com/china-plans-to-build-the-worlds-largest-dam-but-what-does-this-mean-for-india-and-bangladesh-downstream-250109

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Far-right activist Laura Loomer cements her influence after White House firings

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Gawthorpe, Lecturer in History and International Studies, Leiden University

    The US president, Donald Trump, met with far-right activist Laura Loomer in the Oval Office last week. Loomer is a figure so extreme that she is shunned by many, even in Trump’s “make America great again” (Maga) movement.

    Hours after their meeting, Trump fired a string of national security officials, including General Timothy D. Haugh, the head of the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command, apparently at Loomer’s request. Trump has said Loomer was not involved in the firings, but also praised her judgment.

    Even for a president who has always listened to – and, indeed, echoed – fringe voices, the incident stood out. It served as a reminder that Trump is less constrained than ever before, and that his White House is responsive to his personal whims rather than any deliberative policy-making process.

    Gone are the days of Trump’s first administration, when aides would at least try to block the most extreme conspiracy theorists from having access to the president. Now, apparently, even a four-star general (the highest officer rank) like Haugh serves only at the pleasure of figures such as Loomer.

    So, who exactly is Loomer? She is, first and foremost, a media influencer – someone who made her name in far-right circles by spreading hate and conspiracy theories.

    She calls herself a “proud Islamophobe” and “pro-white nationalism”. She has endorsed claims that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an “inside job”, alleged that the “deep state” manipulates the weather to influence elections, and spread conspiracy theories implying that the FBI let school shootings happen in election years to help the Democrats push gun control.

    Loomer’s claims, and her open racism, have sometimes proven too much even for other prominent Maga figures, who prefer to be slightly more subtle in their messaging.

    When Loomer said in 2024 that if Kamala Harris won the election, the White House “will smell like curry” and speeches will be “facilitated via a call centre,” she drew push-back from the now vice-president, J.D. Vance, and far-right congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    But Trump seems to have appreciated Loomer’s commentary all the same. The president has repeatedly praised her in public and backed her unsuccessful run as a Republican candidate for a US House of Representatives seat in Florida in 2020.

    Like many other Maga media figures, Loomer has realised that her antics give her direct exposure to a television-obsessed president, and that this exposure can be transformed into access and, ultimately, political power.

    Loomer, who is only 31, is entirely a product of the Trump era. As an adult, practically the only conservatism she has known is the conservatism of Maga – openly prejudiced, vindictive, and more a stew of grievance and hatred than a coherent political platform.

    Insofar as Loomer advocates for particular policies, they are a crude channeling of these impulses. She has campaigned for a ten-year immigration moratorium and has called for the death penalty for Democrats who oppose Trump.

    On a podcast in June 2024 about whether Democrats should be prosecuted and jailed if Trump wins the election over alleged “unscrupulous behaviour,” Loomer said: “Not just jailed, they should get the death penalty. You know, we actually used to have the punishment for treason in this country.”

    But the chief way in which Loomer personifies modern American conservatism is her single-minded loyalty to the president. Loyalty to Trump, and fury at the disloyalty of others, is the central component of her identity.

    Deep loyalty

    This loyalty seems to be both a deeply felt emotion and also a shrewd way of recommending herself to the president. And, more than anything else, it was what landed her in the Oval Office last week.

    Loomer’s apparent recommendation that Trump fire a slew of national security officials had its roots in this obsession with loyalty. Many people serving in national security positions in the Trump administration are not card-carrying members of the Maga movement.

    This reflects the fact that such positions require deep expertise developed over long apolitical careers in the civil service or military. As the product of a movement that disdains expertise and rationality, few Maga die-hards have the requisite knowledge to do these jobs.

    For Loomer, such figures pose a threat. It ought to be emphasised that this is not because people like General Haugh have ever shown open disloyalty to Trump. It is merely that they are not, like Loomer, his fanatical adherents. In her worldview, anything less is unacceptable.

    Trump seems to agree, which opens the way to more firings in the future. Sensing her opening, Loomer has declared that she will establish an organisation dedicated to investigating executive branch officials for suspected disloyalty to the president.

    Government officials will have to live in fear of being targeted, creating a chilling atmosphere in which pushing back against Trump’s whims becomes impossible.

    Loomer’s growing influence also suggests that the Trump White House is becoming more chaotic and unpredictable.

    The president’s aides have long claimed that the White House would be run in a controlled fashion this time around, with clear chains of command and questionable outsiders kept away. Loomer’s presence in the Oval Office – at Trump’s personal request – blows that story away.

    For her part, Loomer seems to have what she has always wanted: the president’s attention. Where might she direct it next?

    Andrew Gawthorpe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Far-right activist Laura Loomer cements her influence after White House firings – https://theconversation.com/far-right-activist-laura-loomer-cements-her-influence-after-white-house-firings-253870

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘morning shed’: a brief history of the sometimes dangerous lengths women have gone to to look beautiful

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louise N Hanson, PhD in Social and Developmental psychology, Durham University

    An advert for the tape worm pills.

    In TikTok’s latest viral beauty trend “the morning shed,” beauty influencers “shed” hair and skin products that have been worn overnight. These include hair styling items, skin masks and creams, and physical products such as chin straps and mouth tape, which are intended to help with breathing through the night and keep away the drooping of the jaw that happens with age.

    While this trend has come under fire for alleged unsustainability and over-consumerism, it is only the latest beauty fad in a long line of time and money consuming “hacks” that women have been undertaking for centuries. From tapeworms to tuberculosis, women have taken part in a laundry list of beauty hacks in order to meet appearance ideals, many of which have been dangerous, painful and even deadly.

    As far back as the ancient Egyptians, women ground up toxic substances to make eyeliner and eye shadow. These were dangerous when inhaled as a powder (such as during the grinding process) and could cause irritation of the skin when applied. And yet somehow, heavy metal poisoning is among the least dangerous of these historic beauty trends.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions. Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    In China, foot binding is an example of a painful and life altering treatment first recorded around the 10th century. The feet were usually bound before the arch of the foot had developed (aged four to nine).

    The process involved forcefully curling the toes towards the sole of the foot until the arch broke then the foot would be tightly bandaged to keep it in this position. Small feel were coveted at the time. Thankfully, this practice was banned in the early 1900s after almost 200 years of opposition from both Chinese and western sources.

    A Chinese woman with bound feet.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    In Europe, the Renaissance period saw a new wave of beauty hacks, from arsenic baths (which bleach the skin to a near translucent white) to Belladonna drops (literal poison) used on the eyes to induce an aroused or watery-eyed look. Many women who used these tactics ended up poisoned or blind.

    During the reign of Elizabeth I, the “English rose” look was all the rage. Women would blood let for a perfectly pale pallor, or paint their faces with “Venetian ceruse” or “Venetian white” – otherwise known as lead paint. The use of Venetian ceruse is one of the suspected causes of death of Elizabeth I.

    In the Victorian era and early 1900s, women often engaged in dangerous practices to achieve the coveted pale skin, red lip and small waist that was the height of fashion. This aesthetic could be achieved by contracting tuberculosis (a lung infection that was often fatal), taking tapeworm pills, consuming mercury to look forever young, or chewing arsenic wafers to make skin pale.

    My own research has shown that sociocultural pressures to look a certain way are experienced differently across the world. I found that white western women experience some of the highest appearance pressures, followed by east Asian women. Although these decline a little with age for white western women, they persist in Asian women and never reach the lower levels seen elsewhere. I found the lowest levels of sociocultural pressure and the highest levels of body appreciation in Nigeria.

    As the “morning shed” proves, women still go to great lengths to meet culturally shaped standards, particularly under conditions of higher economic inequality – something that is getting worse in many countries. For example, in the United States, cities which have higher economic inequality see higher spend on beauty products and services, such as beauty salons or women’s clothing.

    With the advent of social media, especially short-form content like TikTok, Reels and YouTube Shorts, the speed at which beauty trends rise and fall has been expedited and globalised. These trends range from the painful lip suction women undertook to get big lips like the celebrity Kylie Jenner, to the normalisation of botox and fillers, to laser hair removal of every unwanted follicle.

    The “morning shed” is just the latest evolution in skin care trends, which started as health-focused, with an emphasis on sun protection and moisturisation. It has since morphed into a study in over-consumption and over-commitment of time and money in the pursuit of staying ever youthful.

    Louise N Hanson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘morning shed’: a brief history of the sometimes dangerous lengths women have gone to to look beautiful – https://theconversation.com/the-morning-shed-a-brief-history-of-the-sometimes-dangerous-lengths-women-have-gone-to-to-look-beautiful-253921

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Inaction from Brussels over the arrest of an opposition leader in Turkey may be a strategic mistake

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Seda Gurkan, Assistant Professor in European Studies and International Relations, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University

    The European Union faces a pressing problem as it decides how to handle another major slide towards autocracy in Turkey. So far, the signs are not good.

    Over the past decade, core democratic institutions have been systematically eroded in Turkey, under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power since 2003. Media freedom, independent judiciary and civil society have all been targeted. A major turning point came in 2016, when Turkey abandoned its parliamentary democracy in favour of a hyper-centralised presidential system. Since then, the national parliament has been marginalised and nearly all checks on executive power have been eroded.

    While elections in Turkey have not been fair for many years, they were at least free. According to the international observers, elections were not fair as President Erdoğan and the ruling parties enjoyed “unjustified advantage”. However, elections still could offer voters a “choice between genuine political alternatives” – providing citizens with a sliver of hope for democratic change.

    That era may have ended on March 19, with the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor. İmamoğlu was on the cusp of being made the opposition’s presidential candidate and was widely seen as Erdoğan’s main electoral rival. He now looks unlikely to be able to stand for president. This is not just a blow to the opposition but potentially indicates the end of free elections in Turkey according to some observers.

    All this has been happening in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood. Indeed, it has been happening in a country that remains, at least nominally, a candidate for EU membership. Yet Brussels has largely remained silent. This silence may prove a strategic mistake.

    Why is the EU silent?

    The EU’s reaction to İmamoğlu’s arrest has been, at best, cautious. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, issued a carefully worded expression of “deep concern”. The spokesperson for the EU echoed a familiar refrain, saying that as a candidate country, Turkey must “uphold democratic values”.

    In their joint statement Kaja Kallas, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, and Oliver Várhelyi, commissioner for enlargement, struck a similarly cautious tone. They said Turkey is “expected to apply the highest democratic standards and practices”.

    Only the European parliament, long considered the flagbearer of the EU’s values, adopted a more direct stance. Several political groups openly criticised Turkey during the plenary session on April 1. A delegation led by the European parliament first vice-president Katarina Barley visited İmamoğlu in a symbolic gesture of support.

    But these expressions of concern and acts of solidarity with İmamoğlu have not been matched by any credible action or condemnation potent enough to have a deterrent effect on the Turkish government. As many observers have noted, the EU’s strategic interests have increasingly overshadowed its commitment to democratic principles.

    It is no secret that the EU has never had a coherent strategic vision on Turkey. In a prime example of the transactional nature of the relationship, the EU outsourced refugee challenge to Turkey in 2016 in exchange for financial aid to Ankara. It was a deal driven not by long-term goals but short-term pragmatism.

    Today, in an era of growing geopolitical instability, Turkey has only become a more critical partner for the EU. Ankara commands the second-largest army in Nato, boasts a rapidly advancing defence industry, and has ample experience in peacekeeping and out-of-area operations. These are all increasingly valuable as the US, under Donald Trump, retreats from European security.

    Turkey has also become a key player in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. With strong political and economic ties to the new leadership in Damascus, Turkey started to play a central role in Syria’s reconstruction, as well as in its energy and defence sectors. Working toward the stabilisation and reconstruction of Syria is a shared interest for both Brussels and Ankara. For both sides, potential collapse of Syria involves major security concerns, including further refugee inflows to Turkey, and via Turkey to Europe, the proliferation of armed groups, jihadist terror and the spillover of regional instability.

    And while the containment of Kurdish groups in Syria is a priority for Ankara, the control of ISIS militants in detention in Northern Syria is a priority for the EU. Brussels has recognised Turkey’s “essential role to play in stabilising the region”, adding to the growing list of areas of common interest.

    Add in the fear of destabilisation in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood, and it becomes clearer why Brussels might prefer “stability” under Erdoğan over the uncertainty of post-Erdoğan period.

    The wrong strategy

    But failing to stand up to Turkey now is a mistake – and one with long-term consequences. The EU should care about what is happening in Turkey, not just for the sake of Turkish democracy, but for its own security. How it responds has implications for the credibility of the European project itself.

    Seeking closer security and defence cooperation with Turkey, in the absence of a shared understanding of fundamental values between Ankara and Brussels, is not realistic. As Hungary’s stance toward Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has shown, if there is no agreement on core values, aligning strategic interests becomes increasingly difficult. Turkey is a self-confident and assertive regional power, and it will not hesitate to follow a foreign policy that could ideologically diverge from that of the EU.

    Turkey’s recent foreign policy decisions illustrate this perfectly. Its actions in the eastern Mediterranean, northern Syria before Assad’s fall, Libya and the Caucasus demonstrate its readiness to pursue a more assertive path without consulting western partners. A prime example of this was Turkey’s decision to purchase S-400 missile defence systems from Russia, which created interoperability problems with Nato allies.

    Moreover, autocratic ideas tend to be contagious. When a country follows a more illiberal trajectory, it affects its wider neighbourhood. Turning a blind eye to Turkey’s authoritarian turn while cooperating on security and defence matters risks legitimising Erdoğan’s governance model. This could further strengthen the illiberal axis in the region.

    Finally, the EU risks alienating democrats and younger generations in Turkey. Despite the ups and downs in EU-Turkey relations, Turkish citizens have consistently shown strong support for the EU. Maintaining this momentum is not just an ethical responsibility or a matter of credibility for the EU – it is also a long-term investment in building a more democratic, trustworthy and stable neighbour.

    Seda Gurkan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Inaction from Brussels over the arrest of an opposition leader in Turkey may be a strategic mistake – https://theconversation.com/inaction-from-brussels-over-the-arrest-of-an-opposition-leader-in-turkey-may-be-a-strategic-mistake-253982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Canada is threatened, it’s urgent to revisit Indigenous sovereignty and nationhood

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Deer, Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

    Early in his second term as president of the United States, Donald Trump began making explicit threats about Canada becoming the 51st American state.

    In the midst of his absurd and at times disrespectful rhetoric that’s also included a proposal to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, some have argued Trump’s interest in annexing Canada is an imperialistic impulse.

    As a Kanienʼkehá꞉ka educator concerned with Indigenous language education, civic education and reconciliation, I believe it’s important to explore how Canadians should think about Indigenous nationhood with Canada’s sovereignty under threat. I also believe a U.S. annexation of Canada would be devastating for Indigenous Peoples.

    Re-asserting Canadian nationhood amid threats

    Trump has stated that Canada can be annexed through economic force while others have speculated a military invasion may be part of this conquest attempt.

    Although Trump’s threats against Canada seem ludicrous, many Canadians are taking them seriously and regard the ongoing imperialist rhetoric as a threat to Canadian sovereignty.



    Read more:
    Canada, Greenland, Panama, Gaza and now Ukraine: Wake up, world, Donald Trump is coming for you

    Canadian politicians, public intellectuals and members of the public have reacted strongly to this threat in ways that assert Canadian nationhood, sovereignty and identity. Some suggest a sense of national unity has been stoked in Canada for the first time in generations.

    However, that sense of unity that many may be feeling in Canada — and could affect how Canadians cast their votes in the forthcoming federal election — conceals the realities of nationhood in Canada. There are several aspects of nationhood in Canada that may merit conversation in terms of unity and the current American threats. But I’m particularly concerned that the nationhood that exists among First Nations, Inuit and Métis may be particularly threatened by an American annexation.

    Indigenous Peoples

    Canada is a nation state that occupies the traditional territories of many Indigenous nations, representing a broad diversity of cultural and language backgrounds. The Indigenous Peoples of these nations had served as stewards of the territories of North America far longer than the European colonizers who eventually seized control of the territories.

    Many of the Canadian government’s colonial and post-colonial activities, abetted by their partners (for example, churches of various denominations), were genocidal in nature.

    These colonial actions resulted in Indigenous communities becoming constituent parts one unified nation — Canada. Very little public discourse acknowledges that Indigenous Peoples had already established their own concepts of nation and nationhood. These were displaced by those who established control of the territories.



    Read more:
    Indigenous people invented the so-called ‘American Dream’

    Indigenous nationhood

    Indigenous nations have and continue to regard their communal connections and responsibilities through Indigenous nationhood.

    There are various key aspects of Indigenous nationhood: sociologist Stephen Cornell, who has worked with Indigenous nations and organizations in North America, Australia and New Zealand, observes five of them, including connections to the land, kinship and community, narratives and history associated with the land and culture, self-governance and collective well-being.

    For example, many Anishinaabe consider nationhood as being built on stories and traditions and shaped by relationships and communities. Views like these are enriched by the diversity among Indigenous Peoples.

    The Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) people share many stories, traditions and language that inform their concept of nationhood and their treaty arrangements (such as the Kaswentha). But the Haudenosaunee also consist of different Indigenous nations — including my own, the Kanienʼkehá꞉ka — with each having their own unique manifestations of Indigenous knowledge, heritage and consciousness.

    These different nations functioned in tandem with one another by forming allyships and sharing land.

    Canada not a single, homogenous nation

    Colonialist incursions by French, British and, later, Canadian authorities have disrupted how Indigenous notions of nationhood may be understood by Canadians.

    In ignoring aspects of Indigenous nationhood by exploiting land, dividing families and communities, reconstructing historical narratives, stymying self-governance and emphasizing individual well-being over the collective, the notion of Indigenous nationhood has been marginalized in mainstream public consciousness in Canada.

    Instead, the prevailing notion is that Canada is a single and somewhat homogenous nation. This might sound desirable to some and even idyllic, but it’s a myth.

    Legal implications, reconciliation journey

    Why does Indigenous nationhood have to do with an American president’s threats to Canadian sovereignty?

    Indigenous nationhood has not just been a part of Indigenous consciousness and ways of life for centuries, but is now closely tied to established and developing legal and constitutional principles in Canada.

    These principles are now, after generations of oversight and subjugation, finally allowing Indigenous nations to explore and enact approaches to self-determination and self-governance.

    Trump’s threats imply that existing Canadian legal and constitutional frames would be abolished. They also suggest that the cultural and linguistic mores of Indigenous nations would be endangered even more than they have already been. The reconciliation journey — one that has been informed by the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada — would almost certainly be abandoned.

    Treaty relations and 51st state?

    More specific concerns about nationhood emerging from Trump’s threats are connected to particular Indigenous nations. For instance, many First Nations have treaty relations with the Crown.

    These treaties codify the relationship that these First Nations have with the government of Canada. There is a lot of work being done to better understand treaties in modern times. Treaty arrangements and ongoing efforts to better understand them would be terminated should Canada become the 51st American state.



    Read more:
    Revisiting the Williams Treaties of 1923: Anishinaabeg perspectives after a century

    Much has been achieved by Indigenous Peoples — sometimes in partnership with non-Indigenous people — to enhance their well-being and their place in the world to determine their way forward.

    There is, of course, a lot of work still to be done. Poverty, for example, is still widespread among Indigenous Peoples, the languages and cultures of many are endangered and Indigenous women and girls continue to be treated horrifically. But the journey of Indigenous nations toward well-being and self-determination has led to achievements that can make Indigenous Peoples can be proud.

    Would this journey continue as a 51st state? I have my doubts.

    Frank Deer has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. As Canada is threatened, it’s urgent to revisit Indigenous sovereignty and nationhood – https://theconversation.com/as-canada-is-threatened-its-urgent-to-revisit-indigenous-sovereignty-and-nationhood-253199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI is making elections weird: Lessons from a simulated war-game exercise

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Marinov, PhD Candidate in Communication, Concordia University

    A simulated exercise reveals much about the proliferation and circulation of AI-generated content. (Shutterstock)

    On March 8, the Conservative campaign team released a video of Pierre Poilievre on social media that drew unusual questions from some viewers. To many, Poilievre’s French sounded a little too smooth, and his complexion looked a little too perfect. The video had what’s known as an “uncanny valley” effect, causing some to wonder if the Poilievre they were seeing was even real.

    Before long, the comments section filled with speculation: was this video AI-generated? Even a Liberal Party video mocking Poilievre’s comments led followers to ask why the Conservatives’ video sounded “so dubbed” and whether it was made with AI.

    The ability to discern real from fake is seriously in jeopardy.

    Poilievre’s smooth video offers an early answer to an open question: How might generative AI affect our election cycle? Our research team at Concordia University created a simulation to experiment with this question.

    From a deepfake Mark Carney to AI-assisted fact-checkers, our preliminary results suggest that generative AI is not quite going to break elections, but it is likely to make them weirder.

    A war game, but for elections?

    Our simulation continued our past work in developing games to explore the Canadian media system.

    Red teaming is a type of exercise that allows organizations to simulate attacks on their critical digital infrastructures and processes. It involves two teams — the attacking red team and the defending blue team. These exercises can help uncover vulnerability points within systems or defences and practice ways of correcting them.

    Red-teaming has become a major part of cybersecurity and AI development. Here, developers and organizations stress-test their software and digital systems to understand how hackers or other “bad actors” might try to manipulate or crash them.

    Fraudulent Futures

    Our simulation, called Fraudulent Futures, attempted to evaluate AI’s impact on Canada’s political information cycle.

    Four days into the ongoing federal election campaign, we ran the first test. A group of ex-journalists, cybersecurity experts and graduate students were pitted against each other to see who could leverage free AI tools best to push their agenda in a simulated social media environment based on our past research.

    Hosted on a private Mastodon server securely shielded from public eyes, our two-hour long simulation quickly descended into silence as players played out their different roles on our simulated servers. Some played far-right influencers, others monarchists to make noise or journalists to cover events online. Players and organizers alike learned about generative AI’s capacity to create disinformation, and the difficulties faced by stakeholders trying to combat it.

    Players connected to the server through their laptops and familiarized themselves with the dozens of free AI tools at their disposal. Shortly after, we shared an incriminating voice clone of Carney, created with an easily accessible online AI tool.

    The Red Team was instructed to amplify the disinformation, while the Blue Team was directed to verify its authenticity and, if they determined it to be fake, mitigate the harm.

    The Blue Team began testing the audio through AI detection tools and tried to publicize it was a fake. But for the Red Team, this hardly mattered. Fact-checking posts were quickly drowned out by a constant slew of new memes and fake images of angry Canadian voters denouncing Carney.

    Whether the Carney clip was a deepfake or not didn’t really matter. The fact that we couldn’t tell for sure was enough to fuel endless online attacks.

    Easily available and free AI tools can be used to generate and promote misinformation at an overwhelming rate.
    (Shutterstock)

    Learning from an exercise

    Our simulation purposefully exaggerated the information cycle. Yet the experience of trying to disrupt regular electoral processes was highly informative as a research method. Our research team found three major takeaways from the exercise:

    1. Generative AI is easy to use for disruption

    Many online AI tools claim to safeguard against generating content on elections and public figures. Despite those safeguards, players noted these tools would still generate political content.

    The overall quality of the content produced was easy to distinguish as AI-generated. Yet, one of our players noted how simple it was “to generate and spam as much content as possible in order to muddy the waters on the digital landscape.”

    2. AI detection tools won’t save us

    AI detection tools can only go so far. They are rarely conclusive, and they may even take precedence over common sense. Players noted that even when they knew content was fake, they still felt they “needed to find the tool that would give the answer [they] want” to lend credibility to their interventions.

    Most telling was how journalists on the Blue Team turned toward faulty detection tools over their own investigative work, a sign that users may be letting AI detection usurp journalistic skill.

    With higher-quality content available in real-world situations, there might be a role for specialized AI detection tools in journalistic and election security processes — despite complex challenges — but these tools should not replace other investigative methods.

    However, detection tools will likely only contribute to spreading uncertainty because of the lack of standards and confidence in their assessments.

    3. Quality deepfakes are difficult to make

    High-quality AI-generated content is achievable and has already caused many online and real-world harms and panics. However, our simulation helped confirm that quality deepfakes are difficult and time-consuming to make.

    It is unlikely that the mass availability of generative AI will cause an overwhelming influx of high-quality deceptive content. These types of deepfakes will likely come from more organized, funded and specialized groups engaged in election interference.

    Democracy in the age of AI

    A major takeaway from our simulation was that the proliferation of AI slop and the stoking of uncertainty and distrust are easy to accomplish at a spam-like scale with freely accessible online tools and little to no prior knowledge or preparation.

    Our red-teaming experiment was a first attempt to see how participants might use generative AI in elections. We’ll be working to improve and re-run the simulation to include the broader information cycle, with a particular eye towards better simulating Blue Team co-operation in the hopes of reflecting real-world efforts by journalists, election officials, political parties and others to uphold election integrity.

    We anticipate that the Poilievre debate is just the beginning of a long string of incidents to come, where AI distorts our ability to discern the real from the fake. While everyone can play a role in combatting disinformation, hands-on experience and game-based media literacy have proven to be valuable tools. Our simulation proposes a new and engaging way to explore the impacts of AI on our media ecosystem.

    Robert Marinov received funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    Colleen McCool received funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    Fenwick McKelvey receives funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship. Research has been supported Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute and the Technoculture, Art and Games (TAG) centre at the Milieux Institute.

    Roxanne Bisson receives funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    – ref. AI is making elections weird: Lessons from a simulated war-game exercise – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-making-elections-weird-lessons-from-a-simulated-war-game-exercise-253433

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why tax literacy should be a national priority in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Esteban Vallejo Toledo, PhD Student in Law and Society, University of Victoria

    The last time Canada’s political parties campaigned during a tax season was more than a decade ago. This year, taxes are a hot topic, and for good reason. Shortly after the federal election was called, the political parties began rolling out promises of tax cuts to win over voters.

    At the same time, although Canada’s consumer carbon tax was scapped last month, debates about the industrial carbon tax are likely to continue.

    As the election campaign continues and political parties make more tax-related promises, approximately 3,520 tax clinics and 18,090 volunteers are doing their best to help people file their taxes until April 30. Some of the volunteers are struggling to help as many people as possible.

    No candidate has talked about a tax issue that is essential for life in free and democratic societies: tax literacy. If Canada is to maintain an informed, financially responsible and democratic society, tax literacy must become part of the national conversation.

    A longstanding idea with modern relevance

    The notion of tax literacy has been gaining traction in recent years, but it’s far from a new idea.

    One of the earliest advocates for tax literacy and education was Charles Montesquieu, a French judge and political philosopher of the Enlightenment.

    Portrait of Charles Montesquieu by an anonymous artist.
    (Wikimedia Commons)

    In his 1748 book The Spirit of Laws, Montesquieu argued for tax literacy and education for two key reasons.

    First, he was convinced that knowledge about taxation was necessary to defend oneself against the corruption and abuse that characterized private tax collectors, known at the time as tax farmers.

    Second, he believed education in democratic societies could enhance people’s sense of responsibility for public affairs and help hold authorities accountable for their actions. In his view, tax literacy and education were instrumental in how societies organized themselves for the common good.

    More than 275 years later, Montesquieu’s argument remains just as relevant.

    Tax literacy is neglected in Canada

    In Canada, tax literacy continues to be neglected despite efforts by tax agencies like Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and Revenu Québec to promote it.

    There are important reasons to treat tax literacy as a national priority. It helps people understand and navigate federal, provincial and municipal taxes, recognize the social importance of taxation and responsibly exercise their rights. It also allows people to manage their financial affairs according to the law.

    Tax literacy is also instrumental in contesting economic populism, a political approach that claims to represent the interests of “ordinary people” against perceived elites, often by oversimplifying complex issues like taxation.

    It also helps counter the spread of of disinformation, misinformation and malinformation about taxes in the media, online and on social networks.



    Read more:
    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why

    In Canada, recent examples include misleading claims that Canada has the highest taxes in the world, mischaracterizations of climate tax policies, flawed analyses of the carbon rebate’s cost and other misconceptions about the carbon rebate.

    Tax literacy vs. financial literacy

    While Canada has done considerable work to further financial literacy since 2001, tax literacy has received far less attention from both authorities and scholars.

    In fact, only two peer-reviewed studies have examined tax literacy in Canada. Published in 2016 and 2020, these studies analyze tax literacy within the context of financial literacy and mostly in relation to the income tax.

    Similar to financial literacy, the authors of these studies define tax literacy as “having the knowledge, skills and confidence to make responsible tax decisions.”

    Canada’s federal and provincial governments, as well as non-profit organizations and tax preparers, tend to use a benefit-based narrative to promote tax literacy and encourage tax compliance.

    This narrative frames filing income taxes as positive because it allows people to receive direct payments from the government. In Canada, the income tax system is closely linked to the social support system that benefits everyone, particularly low-income people for whom filing taxes is the primary way to access benefits such as the Canada Child Benefit, the GST/HST Credit and the Canada Workers Benefit.

    The missing fiscal dimension

    While the benefit-based approach aligns with international standards and has clear advantages, it also has drawbacks.

    Most notably, it overlooks the fiscal dimension of tax literacy. This dimension highlights the role taxes play in raising revenue to support government programs, promoting collective well-being, regulating economic activity, addressing social inequalities, strengthening democratic institutions and advancing social goals like environmental protection.

    Taxes are far more than mandatory payments to government. Recognizing this enables citizens to actively participate in decision-making processes and hold governments accountable.



    Read more:
    10 things everyone should know about taxation

    The fiscal dimension also broadens public understanding beyond the income tax. On one hand, it helps people interact with tax authorities beyond the CRA, including those administered by provinces, municipalities and First Nations.

    On the other hand, it helps citizens better understand public budgets and recognize that while income tax is an important source of revenue, it is not the only one.

    The fiscal dimension also challenges harmful narratives that attempt to create social divisions by using the terms “taxpayer” and “taxpayer money.” It also counters the spread of wrongful stereotypes of Indigenous people. These narratives are often used in populist rhetoric to undermine democracy by excluding marginalized groups.

    What needs to happen now

    Tax literacy must become a national priority in Canada, and public institutions must lead this process. To move in this direction, Canada’s public institutions should:

    1) Adopt a holistic approach to tax literacy that includes both the fiscal and financial dimensions.

    2) Address misinformation and discrimination experienced by Indigenous people regarding tax exemptions. This is essential to honouring the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s Calls to Action.

    3) Offer long-term partnerships and support to teachers and educational institutions to integrate tax literacy into schools.

    4) Lead the production of education resources to ensure a holistic approach. Education resources produced or sponsored by the private sector tend to focus on individual responsibility and frame financial choices in moral terms without considering broader social contexts.

    5) Ensure tax literacy initiatives serve not only children and youth but adults as well, in line with UNESCO’s vision of education as a lifelong right.

    6) Ensure adult tax literacy resources follow the recommendations of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). They should be thorough but easy to understand, offered in multiple formats, concise and supplemented by additional resources. Public authorites should expand podcasts, learning platforms and tax initiatives.

    The history of taxes in Canada has been one of important developments but also of social and economic conflicts, wrongful discrimination and colonial racism. It must not also become a history of populism and missed opportunities.

    Now is the time for Canada to write a different chapter. By advancing tax literacy, both authorities and society as a whole can strengthen democracy and build a more informed public.

    Esteban Vallejo Toledo receives funding from the Law Commission of Canada Emerging Scholars Program. He has previously received funding from SSHRC, LFBC, and UVic.

    – ref. Why tax literacy should be a national priority in Canada – https://theconversation.com/why-tax-literacy-should-be-a-national-priority-in-canada-252722

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadians need to use the language of freedom in fighting American annexation

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eric Van Rythoven, Instructor in Political Science, Carleton University

    Canadians looking for relief from the trade war launched by United States President Donald Trump are bound to be disappointed. The Trump administration has just announced it’s more than doubling Canadian softwood lumber duties, adding to an already punishing flurry of tariff actions.

    These tariffs are designed to squeeze Canada, pressuring us into giving up our sovereignty. And while Trump may have cooled his annexation talk lately — likely because of how it was resurrecting the Liberal Party’s fortunes in the ongoing federal election campaign — we cannot simply pretend this threat has gone away.



    Read more:
    Amid U.S. threats, Canada’s national security plans must include training in non-violent resistance

    In response, Canada must use every tool at its disposal. It should leverage retaliatory tariffs and target trade action at vulnerable Republican districts if Trump targets Canada with more tariffs.

    Canadian consumers need to continue boycotting American goods and Canada should ban American firms from bidding on public contracts. It also needs to revitalize trade and diplomatic relationships with reliable allies.

    But alone, even these measures will be insufficient.

    Public diplomacy like no other

    To succeed, Canada needs the most ambitious and energetic campaign of public diplomacy in its history. The target of this campaign should not be the Trump administration, but the ultimate voice of authority in U.S. politics — the American public. Canadian diplomacy should aim to convince
    American citizens that the idea of annexing Canada, already unpopular, is a toxic betrayal of U.S. values.

    Doing so, however, requires using the right language. Public diplomacy fails when it ignores the values of its audience, and especially when the audience has a strong emotional attachment to those values.

    This means that just because something sounds righteous to Canadian ears doesn’t mean it resonates with Americans. Protecting Canadian sovereignty certainly sounds good to Canadians, but this concept is too abstract and distant from Americans’ everyday lives.

    Likewise, Canadians are fiercely proud of our identity as “good neighbours,” but most Americans live far from us and do not know us. Nor can we invoke a shared history that the majority of Americans do not remember or have never learned.

    The value of freedom

    Instead, if Canadians are going to speak to Americans, then they must speak to their culture — and in U.S. culture, no value speaks more loudly than the value of freedom. As American historian Eric Foner writes: “No idea is more fundamental to Americans’ sense of themselves as individuals and as a nation than freedom.”

    For American cognitive psychologist George Lakoff, most of contemporary U.S. politics can be read as a struggle over different conceptions of freedom. From the Declaration of Independence launching a newborn United States into a war for its freedom to the bravery of the Freedom Riders during the Civil Rights Movement, there is no other American value that has the broad resonance and emotion appeal of freedom.

    If America has a civil religion, in fact, it is almost certainly a faith in freedom.

    Canadians need to embrace this language and speak it relentlessly at every opportunity. Americans need to know that Canadians want the freedom to choose their leaders and their laws. They want the freedom to trade without the interference of tariffs. They want the freedom to choose who enters our country.

    They want the freedom to speak different languages. The want the freedom to choose what is taught in Canadian schools, for women to choose, to criticize our government, to choose who we are and who we love. And if Canadians don’t have the freedom to say “no thank you” to becoming the 51st state, then they don’t really have any freedom at all.



    Read more:
    Canada a 51st state? Here’s how American annexation could actually favour Canada

    Putting Americans on the defensive

    Embracing this language does more than simply signal shared values, it puts advocates of annexation on the defensive. By claiming the mantle of freedom, Canadians can put pro-annexation voices on the back foot by forcing them into defending an unpopular position.

    Why should Canadians lose their freedom to elect their own leaders or make their own laws, lose their independence or bend the knee to an American president? Americans would never accept a similar choice.

    Advocates of annexation, including members of the Trump administration, need to be relentlessly challenged over why they think Canadians should be deprived of their freedoms and forced to become American subjects.

    The Trump administration has spent weeks suggesting Canadians have a stark choice: endure economic pain or submit to annexation. Fortunately, the American public knows that the choice between pain and submission is never a free choice, and that the denial of freedom is profoundly un-American.

    Canada needs to tell American citizens that is exactly what their government is doing.

    Eric Van Rythoven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadians need to use the language of freedom in fighting American annexation – https://theconversation.com/canadians-need-to-use-the-language-of-freedom-in-fighting-american-annexation-252366

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US v them: Trump’s tariffs and his economic vision of dominance

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Spécialiste de la politique américaine, Sciences Po

    US President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs against numerous countries isn’t just driven by (already questionable) economic reasoning. It reflects the deeply adversarial worldview embraced by the current occupant of the White House.

    Since returning to the presidency, Trump has unleashed a new wave of tariffs unprecedented in scope. Traditional allies and strategic rivals are now under the same banner, marking a radical shift in Washington’s trade policy that hardens positions taken in Trump’s first term, amplifying them with an unbridled display of power.

    Just as in 2017, when he spoke of “American carnage”, Trump paints an apocalyptic picture of the US, a country he claims has been “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike”. This dramatic narrative is met with a double promise of “liberation” and the restoration of a new “golden age”.


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    Tariffs thus become the weapons of a nationalist crusade, where every import is an attack on sovereignty, and every export a symbolic act of reconquest.

    An authoritarian vision of international trade

    Trump’s trade doctrine is part of a broader strategy defined by confrontation, centralised executive power and a neo-imperial view of the global economy. His tariff measures go far beyond protecting domestic industry: they aim to reshape the global order according to his own interpretation of national interest. This second act of the Trumpist revolution is not a rerun, but an escalation – one based on authoritarian ambitions, the rejection of multilateralism (as seen in the administration’s utter disdain for the World Trade Organization, and the glorification of raw sovereignty.

    The supposed economic logic behind these policies is as flimsy as it is revealing. The chosen calculation method – dividing the bilateral trade deficit by import volumes – is little more than a blunt instrument to go after countries the US runs a deficit with. Officially, it’s about cutting trade deficits, bringing jobs back and raising revenue. But the real agenda runs deeper: consolidating presidential power and replacing global cooperation with a doctrine of economic domination.

    Tariffs as tools of power and messaging

    Trump’s first term has shown the limits of this strategy. The trade war with China, in particular, triggered price hikes for consumers, disrupted supply chains and severely hurt US agricultural exporters. One study found that US consumers bore the brunt of these costs, with an average 1% increase in the prices of manufactured goods.

    Trump doesn’t behave like a traditional head of state operating within a multilateral framework. He acts more like a lone ruler, dispensing rewards and punishments to serve his political – or even personal – agenda. Tariffs, in this context, function as much as media stunts as they do economic instruments. Branded as “reciprocal tariffs”, they construct a simplified and powerful narrative: that of a crusader who corrects the wrongs inflicted on citizens betrayed by free trade.

    This message hits home with workers in industries like auto manufacturing. It offers up convenient villains – China, Europe, and the domestic elite who support free trade. Trade policy is no longer about negotiation; it’s about retribution. In this worldview, the spike in tariffs isn’t just an economic manoeuvre – it’s a statement of sovereignty, even of symbolic power.

    From personal obsession to state doctrine

    Trump’s protectionism is not an overnight development, but part of a long-standing obsession. As early as 1987, he railed against Japan’s trade surpluses with the US and called for steep tariffs on Tokyo. He spoke of the US being “ripped off” and showed a near-paranoid fear of national humiliation or betrayal. At its core, this reflects a deep-seated drive to reassert dominance – to “win” in a world he views as inherently hostile and conflictual. It’s one of the few constants in Trump’s worldview, given his lack of ideological consistency and frequent U-turns on other issues.

    Today, everything is reframed as a question of sovereignty: rare earths, strategic minerals, data flows, shipping lanes. This worldview echoes the imperialist pivot of the late 19th century, especially under US president William McKinley (1897–1901) – a figure Trump pointedly invoked in his second inaugural address.

    This logic also helps explain some of his most provocative gestures: stating he wants to buy Greenland, putting pressure on Canada in hopes of access to its natural resources, and eyeing Ukraine’s mining potential. The underlying idea is blunt and unmistakeable: resources are finite, and you’d better grab your share before someone else does. In this zero-sum game, where one country’s gain is another’s loss, cooperation gives way to conquest.

    The rise of techno-nationalist mercantilism?

    In this worldview, competition isn’t seen as a source of innovation – it’s a threat to be eliminated. The aim isn’t to make America more competitive, but to sabotage the competitiveness of others. The US no longer presents itself – even rhetorically – as a democratic nation playing by the rules of global markets. Instead, it acts like a corporation determined to secure monopoly power.

    This authoritarian shift resonates with key Trumpist thinkers. Peter Thiel, a mentor to US Vice President JD Vance, famously declared that “capitalism and competition are opposites”, championing monopoly as the ultimate goal. Cuts to the federal government and sweeping deregulation aren’t about unleashing free markets – they’re about consolidating control and asserting dominance.



    À lire aussi :
    Trump protectionism and tariffs: a threat to globalisation, or to democracy itself?

    The aim now is to sidestep global systems, not to integrate them – to build an imperial-style autarky where the US controls a closed sphere of influence, shielded from outside competition. This is mercantilism reimagined for the digital age: instead of gold and silver, the currency is data, infrastructure, dollars and crypto currency. Cooperation gives way to coercion.

    Toward an authoritarian international order – or a political disaster?

    The April 2 announcement is far more than an economic decision. It’s a bold political statement – a deliberate move toward a new world order rooted in strength and loyalty, rather than law and cooperation.

    There’s undeniable continuity with Trump’s first term. But this time, the scale, radicalism and concentration of power represent a decisive escalation. Trump increasingly treats the state as his personal property – or a private business – what some have aptly called “patrimonialism”. He is shaping an authoritarian model in which trade becomes a weapon in a new kind of global cold war, driven by fear of decline and an obsession with control. In this logic, prosperity is no longer a shared national goal – it’s a privilege reserved for those in power.

    This trajectory could become politically explosive, especially as Trump faces falling markets and looming inflation – both threatening a weakening of his presidency. If he doubles down despite sinking approval ratings, Republican lawmakers may be forced – under pressure from their voters and donors – to finally push back and reassert their constitutional role. Early signs of dissent within the Republican Party are already surfacing, alongside public anger that remains scattered – but is growing harder to ignore.

    Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. US v them: Trump’s tariffs and his economic vision of dominance – https://theconversation.com/us-v-them-trumps-tariffs-and-his-economic-vision-of-dominance-254096

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s aging population: The unspoken ballot box issue

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sunil Johal, Professor in Public Policy and Society, University of Toronto

    Canadians are voting in a federal election on April 28, and questions about how to deal with the United States and make Canada’s economy more resilient are dominating public discourse.

    The housing crisis, immigration policy and health-care system deficiencies are other top-of-mind concerns. But one issue we likely won’t hear much about from politicians is a trend that’s quietly shaping all of these issues: an aging population.

    Canada’s overall population is older than ever. Between 2016 and 2021, the portion of the population aged 65 and older grew to seven million people. By 2040, it’s projected that close to one-quarter of Canadians will be over the age of 65.

    That means policymakers need to think more proactively about how they can transform Canada’s existing policies to address the needs of an aging population.

    A new report we’ve published at the CSA Public Policy Centre outlines policy pathways for federal and provincial governments to consider as 2040 approaches.

    It’s time for Canadians to reimagine where we live as we grow older, transform our understanding of health and health-care services and take a whole-of-society approach to advance cultural change around the experience of aging.

    Precarious retirement

    As more baby boomers retire in the years ahead, labour productivity is expected to decline and the income tax base that supports core public services will shrink.

    At the same time, significant investments will be needed for our already strained health-care system to meet the needs of older adults living with more chronic conditions. The average cost of delivering health care is about $12,000 per person per year for those over 65, compared to only $2,700 for those under 65.

    Similarly, in the face of a years-long decline in the quality of Canada’s long-term care system and the preference of Canadians to age at home, a policy shift towards aging-in-place has become a priority.

    However, this raises important questions about social isolation, accessibility of Canada’s built environment, suitability of housing options on the market as well as the availability and affordability of necessary services.

    Recent polling shows that 95 per cent of Canadians over 45 believe that aging-in-place would maintain their independence, comfort and dignity. Yet only 12 per cent report having the funds available to receive adequate home care.

    In the absence of thoughtful policy reform, there is potential for significant disparities in health outcomes, financial security and social inclusion among older adults in the years to come.



    Read more:
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    Ensuring intergenerational equity

    There is a perception that baby boomers are heading into a comfortable retirement with robust pensions and opportunities for leisure. While this may be the case for those who have accumulated or inherited wealth, others are facing the risk of poverty and homelessness.

    Data indicates that around 30 per cent of people using shelters across Canada are aged 50 or older, with many others unsheltered, living outdoors or experiencing hidden homelessness.

    With limited resources, governments will be challenged to meet the needs of older Canadians while ensuring younger Canadians can also thrive. Young Canadians are facing a housing market that feels out of reach and many are delaying the decision to start a family due to high costs of living.

    Fifty-five per cent of Canadians aged 25-44 report that rising prices are greatly affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses. Balancing the needs of different generations will require new ways of thinking, strategic investments and systemic cultural change.

    A path forward

    This means that, in the face of difficult decisions, resources should be allocated to those who need them most. For example, there have been calls to improve the equity of Old Age Security (OAS) — which is expected to cost $96 billion annually by 2027 — and lower income thresholds for eligibility.

    Unlike the Guaranteed Income Supplement, which is targeted to low-income Canadians over the age of 65, households with an annual income more than $300,000 may still be eligible for OAS payments.

    Similarly, vouchers could be made available to help Canadians pay for costs such as long-term care or home care services. Eligibility for programs like this should be tested against both income and wealth — access to home equity can be a significant factor in one’s ability to maintain their standard of living in retirement.

    To ensure equitable outcomes, these decisions should also be guided by meaningful engagement with diverse voices around the table, including those from older and younger generations and different lived experiences. Intergenerational dialogue can help different age groups understand each other’s challenges, collaborate on solutions and ultimately work towards solidarity and a much-needed reimagination of what it means to grow older.

    As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, we should all consider the future we want to see for ourselves and our communities as we age. Making strategic investments to improve the quality of life for older Canadians today will also lay the foundation for future generations.

    Sunil Johal is the Vice-President, Public Policy with the CSA Group and leads the CSA Public Policy Centre.

    – ref. Canada’s aging population: The unspoken ballot box issue – https://theconversation.com/canadas-aging-population-the-unspoken-ballot-box-issue-253300

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been key part of complex afterlife rituals

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Tutankhamun’s gold burial mask and one of the plain clay trays. Roland Unger/Canva, CC BY

    More than 100 years after the discovery of the tomb of Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings, new interpretations of the burial are still emerging. A recent article published in the Journal of Egyptian Archaeology proposes that a set of seemingly plain, functional objects are in fact a key part of the complex rituals which would ensure the transformation and regeneration of the young king in the afterlife.

    Tutankhamun inherited a throne tainted by the shifts in religious and political practices implemented by his father, Akhenaten. His reign had been hallmarked by the move from the capital city of Thebes to a new city, Akhetaten (“the horizon of the Aten”).

    Under Akhenaten, the solar deity Aten was elevated above all others, including the principal state god Amun. This resulted in the king being the sole high priest and beneficiary (along with his family) of the Aten. The resulting disconnection between state and religion severely reduced the power and influence of priests and members of the royal court. But on Akhenaten’s death, these were restored by his son.

    Tutankhamun was named Tutankh-aten (“the living image of Aten”) at birth, but took the name of Amun back when Thebes was restored as the capital city of Egypt after his accession. This time (known as the Amarna period after the modern name of Akhenaten’s city) and its changes mean that it is more challenging to understand matters such as burial practices, religious rites and so on because it was not necessarily a “typical” time.

    Therefore, while we have learned much about funerary practices from Tutankhamun’s tomb, there are objects which are still being reinterpreted.

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    The artefacts in focus are a set of four clay trays, approximately 7.5 x 4.0 x 1.2cm, plain in design and apparently quite utilitarian.

    This type of artefact is known from other funerary contexts including elsewhere in the Valley of the Kings. They have been described in various ways as mud trays, earthen dishes or troughs. The lack of consistency in terminology and suggestions on function illustrate the difficulty in understanding their precise role in the tomb.

    Along with the clay trays are a set of wooden staves, just over a metre long, with a slight angle, and covered with gesso (a white pigment and binder mixture) and gold. In spite of the difference in materials, they were assumed by the man who uncovered the tomb, Howard Carter, to be directly associated with the trays. He believed they were probably intended as bases for the staffs to stand upright.

    One of the clay trays.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    However, it is clear that they have an even greater function to fulfil as, contextually, everything in the tomb has symbolism and meaning, even down to the wooden boxes for preserved meats, which were intended to sustain Tutankhamun in the afterlife.

    The care with which the trays and staff were laid out on matting indicates that they were important for the king’s burial. We might expect a royal burial to be filled with only the finest objects, made of the most valuable materials by elite craftsmen, with the association of materials such as gold with royalty and divinity. The richness of the rest of Tutankhamun’s burial for the most part fulfils this expectation. But, nevertheless, the ordinariness of the clay trays in the light of such riches confirms rather than refutes their significance.

    The restoration of order

    Following the royal court’s move back to Thebes in the wake of Akhenaten’s death, the restoration of Amun and the other gods was set in motion. The cult centre of Amun at the Temple of Karnak regained its status. The name of Akhenaten and his imagery, along with that of the sun disk, were subjected to a campaign of removal.

    Tutankhamun erected the so-called Restoration Stela with titles and epithets invoking the traditional gods, and statements on “having repaired what was ruined … having repelled disorder”. The upheaval of the Amarna Period was reversed.

    Discussions in academia on the dismantling of Akhenaten’s regime have tended to focus on issues such as name changes and the destruction of his upstart city. But ancient Egyptian religion had countless centuries of recorded tradition and observance, so profound demonstrations of loyalty to the traditional gods were needed.

    Two more clay trays from Tutankhamun’s tomb.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    The mud trays are now thought to be part of a wider funerary ritual, which both invoked the god Osiris and permitted the transfiguration of Tutankhamun. As king, he was thought to be the embodiment of the god Horus in life, and to become Osiris in death – rejuvenated and resurrected.

    Osiris is usually shown as a mummified king, with green or black skin to represent the fertility of the land and the new life which comes from it. It is not a coincidence that the trays are made of mud.

    Other aspects of the placement of the trays within the tomb such as specific placement and orientation (including particular symbols in the decoration of the tomb) indicate that the trays had a specific role to play. This may have been as an offering tray for Nile water, once more underlining the role of the river in creating life.

    Tutankhamun and his treasures are so familiar today that it is possible to overlook, or even forget, the fact that once the doors were sealed after his funeral they were meant to never be seen again. Some of his grave goods – particularly those made from gold – have outshone others. However, the ordinariness of the trays among all the riches suggests that they are crucial components of his burial. They confirm Tutankhamun as both renewed in death through Osiris, and the king who restored order to Egypt.

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been key part of complex afterlife rituals – https://theconversation.com/tutankhamun-plain-looking-mud-trays-in-pharaohs-tomb-have-been-key-part-of-complex-afterlife-rituals-253479

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How storytelling, creativity and collaborations can inspire climate action

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Cecilia Manosa Nyblon, Director – We Are the Possible Programme, University of Exeter

    Imagine heading into space, landing on the moon and walking in the dust. As you adjust to the weightlessness, you see something unexpected on the horizon. You’re looking back at the Earth, experiencing the “overview effect”. How would you feel? What would you see, hear, touch, taste and smell?

    We asked these questions when we launched a creative writing workshop to harness the beauty and power of storytelling, education, theatre, and music to inspire a greener, healthier and fairer world for future generations.

    One of us, Cecilia Mañosa Nyblon, brought together a team from the University of Exeter, the Met Office and international experts including marine scientists, poets, soundscape artists, musicians, playwrights and children’s authors who recognise the power of the arts to bridge the gap between science and society.

    In 2021, our team launched We Are the Possible. This international award-winning programme brings together artists, scientists, educators and health professionals to connect hearts and minds. Together, we develop creative content and performances that are presented to policymakers and the public at annual UN climate summits and other public events.

    As Kathleen Jamie, Scotland’s makar (national poet), said during the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow: “We can’t have that massive event around nature and environment without a poetry presence there.”

    Since 2021, this programme has engaged more than 16,000 people in the UK, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan. Our projects have reached more than 33 million people worldwide through mainstream media, social media and online platforms. By inspiring global and local audiences, we hope to mobilise communities to care for and protect our planet.

    “We Are the Possible” collaborated with artists, scientists, educators, musicians and schoolchildren to perform at Cop28, the UN climate summit, in Dubai in 2023.

    The project’s creative lead, Sally Flint, weaves the words of climate scientists, health professionals, storytellers, artists, youth, educators and translators into an anthology of 12 poems or stories for the 12 days of each UN climate summit, showing what people value most and what’s at stake in our changing planet.

    In our anthology for Cop28 (the 2023 climate summit in Dubai), Christiana Figueres, the Costa Rican diplomat who spent years negotiating for climate action at the UN summits, shared that “while this remains vital, I have also realised that connecting with people from the heart and with love is the most powerful place to start.”

    Scientists have the data. We have the technological solutions. But governments and leaders are failing to act with urgency. The climate crisis is our biggest communication failure.

    Culture has the power to help people imagine and inspire action through dialogue, images, storytelling and shared experiences. But for far too long, the arts, cultural heritage and creative industries have been absent in climate policy frameworks. In 2024, ministers of culture and education gathered in Abu Dhabi to establish a framework which recognises the transformative power and impact of culture and arts education [for sustainable development]https://www.unesco.org/sites/default/files/medias/fichiers/2024/02/WCCAE_UNESCO%20Framework_EN_0.pdf).

    Since Cop28, our team has been working with our partner, a not-for-profit called the Emirates Literature Foundation, to involve Indigenous poets through visual artforms. This involvement shines a light on the importance of Indigenous knowledge in our climate conversations to heal and restore our planet.

    We have also collaborated with a sustainable theatre company called The Theatre of Others to deliver The Earth Turns and Bright Light Burning. These immersive theatre performances (inspired by We Are the Possible anthologies) and panel discussions involve both policymakers and the public. After one of the performances, Jonathan Dewsbury, director of capital operations and net zero at the UK government’s Department for Education, told us: “If we don’t grab the arts, the poems, the music and embed them into our top policy thinkers, our top decision-makers, we are not going to make the right choices, the right solutions.”

    Carpet weaving is an important part of Azerbaijan’s cultural identity. At Cop29 (the 2024 UN climate summit in Azerbaijan), one group of academics and students at Khazar University in Baku wove a traditional “Chelebi” carpet. This conveyed a message of unity and environmental stewardship through symbolic patterns inspired by We Are the Possible’s anthology.

    Ocean-literate cultures

    Around 50% of countries have no mention of climate change in their school curriculum, according to Unesco. Most teachers (95%) feel that teaching about climate climate change is important but less than 30% say are ready to teach it. Meanwhile, 75% young people around the world say they are frightened about their future.

    Schools Across the Ocean, the education strand of We Are the Possible, is addressing this climate education gap. Led by our colleague, senior lecturer in education Anita Wood, this initiative has already connected more than 2,000 schoolchildren (aged 8-13) and more than 100 teachers in the UK, United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and other countries.

    Inspiring children to put their words and artwork of hope about the ocean.

    This six-week programme involves providing a toolkit for teachers plus activities and online workshops that engage children in science, art, storytelling and action for the ocean. The goal is for more children to understand why we all need a healthy ocean, develop their sense of agency and inspire others in their local communities to take action too.

    Wendy Wilson, headteacher St Anne’s School in Alderney on the Channel Islands, found that Schools Across the Ocean meant that her students were not just learning about climate change. She said they were also “becoming active, global citizens who are climate literate, empowered and full of hope.”

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    We Are the Possible programme has been funded by the University of Exeter, Met Office, British Council, British Embassy Gulf Strategy Fund, British Embassy Azerbaijan, UKRI, AHRC, Knowledge E Foundation,Arts Council England and supported by Emirates Literature Foundation, American University in Cairo, Khorfakkan University, Khazar University, BIMM University, Extreme Hangout, Banlastic, Ocean Generation, Tahrir Cultural Centre, Royal Albert Memorial Museum, Exeter UNESCO City of Literature, Cygnet Theatre, among others.

    We Are the Possible programme has been funded by the University of Exeter, Met Office, British Council, British Embassy Gulf Strategy Fund, British Embassy Azerbaijan, UKRI, AHRC, Knowledge E Foundation, Arts Council England and supported by Emirates Literature Foundation, American University in Cairo, Khorfakkan University, Khazar University, BIMM University, Extreme Hangout, Banlastic, Ocean Generation, Tahrir Cultural Centre, Royal Albert Memorial Museum, Exeter UNESCO City of Literature, Cygnet Theatre, among others.

    – ref. How storytelling, creativity and collaborations can inspire climate action – https://theconversation.com/how-storytelling-creativity-and-collaborations-can-inspire-climate-action-252256

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Peru’s ancient irrigation systems succeeded in turning deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ari Caramanica, Assistant Professor of Archaeology, Vanderbilt University

    A pre-Hispanic canal funnels water from mountains to farm fields. Ari Caramanica

    Seeing the north coast of Peru for the first time, you would be hard-pressed to believe it’s one of the driest deserts in the world.

    Parts of the region receive less than an inch of rain in an entire year. Yet, water and greenery are everywhere. This is the nation’s agro-industrial heartland, and, thanks to irrigation canals, almost every inch of the floodplain is blanketed in lucrative export crops, such as sugarcane, asparagus and blueberries.

    However, the apparent success of this system masks an underlying fragility.

    Water shortages have plagued the region for centuries, and now modern climate change combined with agro-industrial practices have further intensified droughts. In response, the Peruvian government has invested billions of dollars in irrigation infrastructure in recent years designed to deliver more water from a resource more than 100 miles away: glaciers in the Andes.

    But the Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru has lost over half its glacier surface area since 1962. At the same time, floods often connected to wet El Niño years are increasing in both frequency and intensity. These floods often destroy or obstruct critical irrigation infrastructure.

    Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru lost over half its glacier surface area in the past half-century.
    mmphoto/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    As an archaeologist investigating societal responses to environmental and climate disaster in Peru, I’m interested in unraveling the histories of complex systems to understand how to improve similar systems today. To understand the Peruvian heartland’s vulnerabilities, it helps to look to the deep past.

    Most of the modern canal network originally dates to pre-Hispanic times, more than 1400 years ago. However, evidence suggests that while the canal systems of the past may have looked similar to those of the present, they functioned in more efficient, flexible ways. The key to adapting to our present and future climate may lie in comprehending the knowledge systems of the past – not just the equipment, technology or infrastructure, but how people used it.

    An environment of extremes

    The north coast of Peru is an environment of extremes.

    In this desert, thousands of years ago, societies encountered many of the same challenges posed by the modern climate crisis: expanding drylands, water scarcity, vulnerable food production systems, and frequent, intense natural disasters.

    Yet, people not only occupied this area for millennia, they thrived in it. Moche and Chimu societies created sophisticated, complex political and religious institutions, art and technology, and one of the largest pyramidal structures in the Americas.

    Relief of fish adorn an adobe wall in the historic Tschudi Complex archaeological site at Chan Chan, the former capital of the Chimu empire in Peru.
    FabulousFabs/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    When the Spanish arrived on the desert north coast of Peru shortly after 1532 C.E., early chroniclers remarked on the verdant, green valleys across the region.

    The Spanish immediately recognized the importance of the canal network. They had used similar canal technology in Spain for centuries. So, they set about conscripting Indigenous labor and adapting the irrigation system to their goals.

    Just a few decades later, however, historic records describe sand dunes and scrublands invading the green valleys, water shortages, and in 1578 a massive El Niño flood that nearly ended the young colony.

    So how did the Indigenous operation of this landscape succeed, where the Spanish and the modern-day agro-industrial complex have repeatedly failed?

    Culture was crucial for ancient canal systems

    Ancient beliefs, behaviors and norms – what archaeologists call culture – were fundamentally integrated into technological solutions in this part of Peru in ancient times. Isolating and removing the tools from that knowledge made them less effective.

    Scientists, policymakers and stakeholders searching for models of sustainable agriculture and climate adaptations can look to the archaeological record. Successfully applying past practices to today’s challenges requires learning about the cultures that put those tools to work effectively for so long, so long ago.

    The pre-Hispanic societies of Peru developed agricultural principles around the realities of the desert, which included both dry seasons and flash floods.

    Large-scale irrigation infrastructure was combined with low-cost, easily modified canals. Aqueducts doubled as sediment traps to capture nutrients. Canal branches channeled both river water and floodwater. Even check-dams – small dams used to control high-energy floods – worked in multiple ways. Usually made of mounded cobble and gravel, they reduced the energy of flash floods, captured rich sediments and recharged the water table.

    A drone’s view of sugarcane fields shows a pre-Hispanic adobe aqueduct on the right and small feeder canals in the modern fields.
    Ari Caramanica

    The initial failures of the Spanish on the north coast exemplify the problem of trying to adopt technology without understanding the cultural insights behind it: While they may be identical in form, a Spanish canal isn’t a Moche canal.

    Spanish canals operated in a temperate climate and were managed by individual farmers who could maintain or increase their water flow. The Moche and Chimu canal was tied to a complex labor system that synchronized cleaning and maintenance and prioritized the efficient use of water. What’s more, Moche canals functioned in tandem with floodwater diversion canals, which activated during El Niño events to create niches of agricultural productivity amid disasters.

    A handmade gate on a modern canal in northern Peru doesn’t seem that different from ancient canals, but the pre-Hispanic canal systems were generally more conceptually complex and interconnected.
    Ari Caramanica

    Desert farming required flexibility and multifunctionality from its infrastructure. Achieving that often meant forgoing impermeable materials and permanent designs, which stands in stark contrast to the way modern-day water management works are constructed.

    Copying ancient practices without the culture

    Today, the Peruvian government is pushing forward with a decades-old, multibillion-dollar project to deliver water to the north coast from a glacier-fed river.

    The Chavimochic project promises a grand transformation, turning desert into productive farmland. But it may be sacrificing long-term resilience for short-term prosperity.

    The project feeds on the temporary abundance of glacial meltwater. This is creating a water boom as the ice melts, but it will inevitably be followed by a devastating water bust as the glaciers all but disappear, which scientists estimate could happen by the end of the 21st century.

    Farmers sell locally grown corn and other crops at a street market in Piura, Peru.
    Christian Ender/Getty Images

    Meanwhile, sustainable land management practices of past Indigenous inhabitants continue to support ecosystems hundreds and even thousands of years later. Studies show higher levels of biodiversity, crucial to ecosystem health, near archaeological sites.

    On the Peruvian north coast, pre-Hispanic infrastructure continues to capture floodwater during El Niño events. When their modern-day fields are flooded or destroyed by these events, farmers will sometimes move their crops to areas surrounding archaeological remains where their corn, squash and bean plants can tap into the trapped water and sediments and safely grow without the need for further irrigation.

    Critics might point out the difficulty of scaling up ancient technologies for global applications, find them rudimentary, or would prefer to appropriate the design without bothering with understanding “the cultural stuff.”

    But this framing misses the bigger point: What made these technologies effective was the cultural stuff. Not just the tools but how they were used by the societies operating them. As long as modern engineering solutions try to update ancient technologies without considering the cultures that made them function, these projects will struggle.

    Understanding the past matters

    Archaeologists have an important role to play in building a climate-resilient future, but any meaningful progress would benefit from a historical approach that considers multiple ways of understanding the environment, of operating an irrigation canal and of organizing an agriculture-based economy.

    That approach, in my view, begins with saving indigenous languages, where cultural logic is deeply embedded, as well as preserving archaeological and sacred sites, and creating partnerships built on trust with the people who have worked with the land and whose cultures have adapted their practices to the changing climate for thousands of years.

    Ari Caramanica receives funding from The National Endowment for the Humanities.

    – ref. Peru’s ancient irrigation systems succeeded in turning deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed – https://theconversation.com/perus-ancient-irrigation-systems-succeeded-in-turning-deserts-into-farms-because-of-the-culture-without-it-the-systems-failed-251199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been been key part of complex afterlife rituals

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Tutankhamun’s gold burial mask and one of the plain clay trays. Roland Unger/Canva, CC BY

    More than 100 years after the discovery of the tomb of Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings, new interpretations of the burial are still emerging. A recent article published in the Journal of Egyptian Archaeology proposes that a set of seemingly plain, functional objects are in fact a key part of the complex rituals which would ensure the transformation and regeneration of the young king in the afterlife.

    Tutankhamun inherited a throne tainted by the shifts in religious and political practices implemented by his father, Akhenaten. His reign had been hallmarked by the move from the capital city of Thebes to a new city, Akhetaten (“the horizon of the Aten”).

    Under Akhenaten, the solar deity Aten was elevated above all others, including the principal state god Amun. This resulted in the king being the sole high priest and beneficiary (along with his family) of the Aten. The resulting disconnection between state and religion severely reduced the power and influence of priests and members of the royal court. But on Akhenaten’s death, these were restored by his son.

    Tutankhamun was named Tutankh-aten (“the living image of Aten”) at birth, but took the name of Amun back when Thebes was restored as the capital city of Egypt after his accession. This time (known as the Amarna period after the modern name of Akhenaten’s city) and its changes mean that it is more challenging to understand matters such as burial practices, religious rites and so on because it was not necessarily a “typical” time.

    Therefore, while we have learned much about funerary practices from Tutankhamun’s tomb, there are objects which are still being reinterpreted.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The artefacts in focus are a set of four clay trays, approximately 7.5 x 4.0 x 1.2cm, plain in design and apparently quite utilitarian.

    This type of artefact is known from other funerary contexts including elsewhere in the Valley of the Kings. They have been described in various ways as mud trays, earthen dishes or troughs. The lack of consistency in terminology and suggestions on function illustrate the difficulty in understanding their precise role in the tomb.

    Along with the clay trays are a set of wooden staves, just over a metre long, with a slight angle, and covered with gesso (a white pigment and binder mixture) and gold. In spite of the difference in materials, they were assumed by the man who uncovered the tomb, Howard Carter, to be directly associated with the trays. He believed they were probably intended as bases for the staffs to stand upright.

    One of the clay trays.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    However, it is clear that they have an even greater function to fulfil as, contextually, everything in the tomb has symbolism and meaning, even down to the wooden boxes for preserved meats, which were intended to sustain Tutankhamun in the afterlife.

    The care with which the trays and staff were laid out on matting indicates that they were important for the king’s burial. We might expect a royal burial to be filled with only the finest objects, made of the most valuable materials by elite craftsmen, with the association of materials such as gold with royalty and divinity. The richness of the rest of Tutankhamun’s burial for the most part fulfils this expectation. But, nevertheless, the ordinariness of the clay trays in the light of such riches confirms rather than refutes their significance.

    The restoration of order

    Following the royal court’s move back to Thebes in the wake of Akhenaten’s death, the restoration of Amun and the other gods was set in motion. The cult centre of Amun at the Temple of Karnak regained its status. The name of Akhenaten and his imagery, along with that of the sun disk, were subjected to a campaign of removal.

    Tutankhamun erected the so-called Restoration Stela with titles and epithets invoking the traditional gods, and statements on “having repaired what was ruined … having repelled disorder”. The upheaval of the Amarna Period was reversed.

    Discussions in academia on the dismantling of Akhenaten’s regime have tended to focus on issues such as name changes and the destruction of his upstart city. But ancient Egyptian religion had countless centuries of recorded tradition and observance, so profound demonstrations of loyalty to the traditional gods were needed.

    Two more clay trays from Tutankhamun’s tomb.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    The mud trays are now thought to be part of a wider funerary ritual, which both invoked the god Osiris and permitted the transfiguration of Tutankhamun. As king, he was thought to be the embodiment of the god Horus in life, and to become Osiris in death – rejuvenated and resurrected.

    Osiris is usually shown as a mummified king, with green or black skin to represent the fertility of the land and the new life which comes from it. It is not a coincidence that the trays are made of mud.

    Other aspects of the placement of the trays within the tomb such as specific placement and orientation (including particular symbols in the decoration of the tomb) indicate that the trays had a specific role to play. This may have been as an offering tray for Nile water, once more underlining the role of the river in creating life.

    Tutankhamun and his treasures are so familiar today that it is possible to overlook, or even forget, the fact that once the doors were sealed after his funeral they were meant to never be seen again. Some of his grave goods – particularly those made from gold – have outshone others. However, the ordinariness of the trays among all the riches suggests that they are crucial components of his burial. They confirm Tutankhamun as both renewed in death through Osiris, and the king who restored order to Egypt.

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been been key part of complex afterlife rituals – https://theconversation.com/tutankhamun-plain-looking-mud-trays-in-pharaohs-tomb-have-been-been-key-part-of-complex-afterlife-rituals-253479

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How dentists could help tackle obesity in children

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jessica Large, Doctoral Researcher, Centre for Lifestyle Medicine and Behaviour (CLiMB), Loughborough University

    © World Obesity , CC BY-NC-SA

    As a specialty registrar in paediatric dentistry, I’ve seen first-hand the pain children experience because of poor oral health. Tooth decay happens when teeth are damaged by acids produced by oral bacteria breaking down sugar from foods and drinks – and although it’s largely preventable – it’s the most common reason for hospital admission in children aged between five and nine in England.

    Tooth decay in children is also linked to obesity. Childhood obesity increases the risk of developing other diseases throughout childhood and into adulthood, including diabetes, high blood pressure and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    My research, conducted with colleagues at Loughborough University, explores how acceptable and feasible it is for dental teams to offer weight checks and support, such as referral to weight loss programmes, to patients during routine appointments. In my job as a paediatric dentist, I discuss weight and health with families and offer referral to local healthy lifestyle services.

    The World Health Organization estimates that 43% of children have decay worldwide and 20% of children aged 5-19 years are overweight or living with obesity.

    In England, 29.3% of five-year-olds have tooth decay and 21.3% of four and five year olds are overweight or living with obesity. A diet high in sugary foods and drinks increases the risk of developing both conditions. and evidence suggests that children who are overweight or living with obesity are more likely to have tooth decay.

    Mouth disease is also linked with disease in other parts of the body. Gum disease, for example, is an infection of the tissues that support teeth, which has links with type 2 diabetes. When one disease is poorly controlled, it can make the other worse. The number of children with type 2 diabetes is increasing, with excess weight increasing the risk of developing this condition.

    Given the links between diet, tooth decay, obesity, type 2 diabetes, as well as other diseases that can develop when living with obesity, dental teams may be ideal professionals to tackle both tooth decay and obesity. It can be difficult to see an NHS dentist in the UK but NHS dental teams do see millions of children every year and already advise families on reducing sugary foods and drinks in the diet to reduce the risk of tooth decay.

    Dental teams taking body measurements is not new. Height and weight measurements to calculate body mass index (BMI), a measure of body fat, are already collected by some dental teams. These measurements are helpful when prescribing medication and for planning dental treatment for children who need a general anaesthetic or sedation.

    Some hospital dental teams, such as in Edinburgh and Dundee in Scotland, also offer weight and height checks for children and young people as part of routine appointments. The child’s weight is discussed with the child’s parent or carer in a sensitive way and families are offered referral to a local service to support healthy lifestyle changes.

    This opportunity to support a child with their oral health as well as weight aligns with the NHS initiative, Making Every Contact Count. Making Every Contact Count calls on all health care professionals to take every opportunity within their appointments with patients to help improve patient health.

    Children living in more deprived areas of the UK are at least twice as likely to be living with overweight and obesity. They’re also three times as likely to have tooth decay. The NHS aims to reduce these inequalities among children and has chosen oral health and diabetes as two key areas to improve care for children and young people.

    The public have shown support for dental teams to talk about weight at dental visits and offer guidance to lose weight and improve health when done in a supportive way. Research published in 2024, found that over 80% of the public supported weight measurements being taken by dental teams and a discussion of weight at dental appointments. Most of the studies in this review came from the USA.

    A UK based survey asked parents and carers if they would feel comfortable with their child(ren)’s weight and height being taken at a dental appointment in a dental practice. The survey found 58% of parents and carers would feel comfortable and a further 12% might feel comfortable with this approach.

    This was very similar to how adults completing the survey felt about having their own height and weight measured at a dental appointment with 60% reporting they would feel comfortable and a further 10% saying they may feel comfortable.

    Discussing weight can feel uneasy and dental teams say they worry they will upset patients if they talk about weight. Some studies have found dental teams are also concerned they do not have enough time to talk about weight and that they have not had training on how to do this.

    However, studies have found when weight checks and support are offered to families by trained dental teams, help is well received and lack of time rarely a problem.

    Dental decay and obesity are preventable in many cases. Both conditions can continue into adulthood with the risk of developing other health problems.

    Research shows that dental teams are willing to provide support and that children and their families are open to receiving help for obesity. Dental teams do have an important role to play, as well as GPs and allied healthcare professionals, in tackling obesity in children as well as tooth decay.

    Jessica Large does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How dentists could help tackle obesity in children – https://theconversation.com/how-dentists-could-help-tackle-obesity-in-children-252258

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Nato is struggling to rebuild itself in an increasingly threatening world

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amelia Hadfield, Head of Department of Politics, University of Surrey

    In the years after Nato was formed in 1949, its US and European members had a collective approach to defence with clear goals in common, largely built around the protection of western Europe against the Soviet Union. Throughout this era, the US and Europe both relied on the stability of the international system by creating international cooperation on shared dilemmas.

    Fast forward more than 70 years, and there is now a ticking clock on reinventing the transatlantic alliance.

    European security and US-led Nato security are no longer one and the same. Certainly, recent statements from US leaders that the US will prioritise empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security has made for tough listening in Europe.

    For some, this may be an overdue opportunity to fundamentally rework the transatlantic security relationship. For others, such statements are worryingly set against the backdrop of Trump’s pro-Russia stance, with Trump’s demands sounding sinister at best.

    Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte recently outlined a need to “build a stronger, a fairer and more lethal NATO”. Global threats were creating a more dangerous world, he argued.

    Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, speaks at a 2025 meeting in Brussels,

    From its establishment by 12 states on April 4, 1949, until the end of the cold war era, Nato was focused on one big thing: deterring Soviet aggression. Ultimately, Nato had one job, one enemy, one threat, one theatre and one instrument of power.

    It was a partnership that enabled the US to build and maintain a more permanent role in European security. This collective security plan prevented the US from falling back into isolationist foreign policies that it had held before the second world war

    Arguably, US attitudes fluctuated throughout this era. Initially the country sought a temporary role in Nato, with limited military commitment. It also encouraged western European Nato members to take early and primary responsibility for defence.

    However, the huge Soviet nuclear threat hardened US attitudes. And Nato came to be seen as key to the US’s overall ability to prevent a Soviet invasion of western Europe. Equally important was the role of the Marshall Plan, a massive post-war reconstruction plan for Europe, which (in conjunction with Nato) represented the US’s desire to work with European partners to both stabilise the region, and ensure democracy.

    Through the decades that followed, the US saw Nato as a cornerstone of its foreign policy. It is important to remember that transactionality has always been an integral part of the transatlantic relationship, but it was never at the expense of the values that underpinned it, and indeed reinforced both US national and European regional interests in doing so.

    Throughout the 1990s, and well into the 2000s, Nato clearly represented the US’s preferred method of maintaining its military presence in Europe (including US bases, weapons and troops stationed in member countries). The US drove the redefinition of post-cold war Nato, to include former Warsaw Pact countries including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.



    Read more:
    US and Russia squabble over Arctic security as melting ice opens up shipping routes

    The question now is whether US leadership in Nato was focused so extensively on security of Europe and pushing back against the Soviets that for a long time the dilemma of who paid for what was essentially set aside.

    Long overdue problems?

    But two wake-up calls were to come. The first was the increasingly clear indications from US administrations from Barack Obama’s presidency onwards that the US was ill at ease with Nato as a whole, and it was unhappy with the lower financial commitment, than the US, coming from European members.

    The second was in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. Unfortunately, the first warning sign by Obama was largely ignored; and when Russia invaded Crimea, Nato did not step up to push back against Putin’s expansionism.

    Now, Nato finds itself once again in the crosshairs of US anger about funding, and with Trump furious at European defence spending levels, and determined to massively revise the transatlantic bargain.

    Trump’s first administration put spending from European Nato members firmly on the table. His recent position is merely a continuation of that theme.

    From the European perspective, the US was, and is, a key part of the collective security structure that has empowered European defence and deterrence, but possibly with an out-of-date funding model.

    Trump, meanwhile, appears to see the US’s involvement as politically naïve. He seems to view Nato as strategically futile and defence spending imbalances as an indication that Nato is nothing more than a giant security racket.

    What is stark is the reversal between the US having helped found Nato and as the leading nation backing of a rule-bound global system under international law and Trump’s preference to reject any responsibilities for global leadership and stability.

    What has come as a shock to European members is not perhaps the demands regarding improving defence funding, but the abdication of US leadership and the threat to leave Nato completely, with no ongoing US responsibility to defend the world order.

    The onus is now on European Nato members to make both serious and swift changes. Indications of far more serious financial commitments, including from Germany, are emerging. European defence spending overall increased by 11.7% over the last year to roughly €423.3 billion (£371 billion), representing ten years of consecutive regional growth.

    Next steps include focusing on AI-led technologies, cheap drones, digital tech and improved commitments to joint projects.

    But the hardest task is also the most urgent. Namely, to avoid the chaos of a unilateral US withdrawal from Nato.

    There’s a need to move the financial and military burden to Europe in a way agreeable to the US before the Nato summit in June. Discussions on how to achieve this need to cover everything from nuclear deterrence to challenges arising from the conflict in Ukraine.

    Whether Rutte and European states can indeed preserve and maintain the collective security foundations on which Nato was first built remains to be seen. But, certainly, the current world situation is no less dangerous that the world in which Nato itself was first built.

    Amelia Hadfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Nato is struggling to rebuild itself in an increasingly threatening world – https://theconversation.com/why-nato-is-struggling-to-rebuild-itself-in-an-increasingly-threatening-world-253494

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What autistic people think should be prioritised in education for autistic learners

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Gormley, Assistant Professor in Education, Dublin City University

    wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

    The education of autistic children and young people in western societies has been heavily influenced by a medicalised understanding of autism. This means considering autism as a disorder, with a focus on correcting autistic people’s perceived lacks, rather than building on their strengths.

    Autistic learners’ strengths, interests, preferences, goals and values were typically sidelined. Making the learner appear less autistic was the main focus.

    This included increasing eye contact and building neurotypical social skills. It involved attempting to reduce stimming: self-stimulatory behaviour, which can include chewing on objects, fidgeting, watching moving objects, and making repetitive sounds.



    Read more:
    Autistic stimming explained – and why stopping it can lead to burnout

    However, the neurodiversity movement – a social advocacy movement that promotes the idea that neurological differences are an expected and normal part of human variation – has challenged these assumptions. Instead of the autistic learner being viewed as disabled, it suggests the educational environment can be disabling for the autistic learner.

    This contrasts with the past when school norms typically did not support the strengths and needs of autistic learners. These children were expected to fit in.

    What autistic people want

    The autistic voice has been largely missing from educational research and policymaking. My research study with colleagues, co-produced with autistic researchers, set out to change this. We wanted to identify the educational priorities of adult members of the autistic community, as well as teachers supporting autistic learners, in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

    We did this by carrying out a survey comprising 34 autistic adults with no role in education (non-educators), ten autistic educators, and 65 non-autistic educators who supported autistic learners. We asked them about priority goals to be included in individual education plans for autistic learners.

    The individual education plan is the foundation of inclusive and special education in many countries. It serves as an educational map that charts the learner’s current level of performance and their annual goals. It lays out the steps and resources needed to reach these goals.

    In countries such as Finland, the US and UK, an individual learning plan is legally mandated for all learners who make use of special education services. However, this is not the case in the Republic of Ireland. Provisions were made in the 2004 Education for Persons with Special Education Needs Act. Over 20 years later, though, individual education plans are still not compulsory, regulated or assessed in the Republic of Ireland.

    This lack of oversight has occurred against the backdrop of a 600% increase in special classes in the Republic of Ireland from 2013 to 2023. Autism classes accounted for 89% of these – 2,466 classes out of a total of 2,754.

    Before carrying out the survey, we expected very little overlap in the goal priorities of autistic respondents and non-autistic respondents. We were wrong. Our findings clearly showed significant overlap in the priorities across the groups.

    Our survey respondents prioritised goals that promote autonomy, social inclusion and communication. They saw these goals as contributing positively to autistic wellbeing.

    Learning goals that focused on social inclusion were a priority.
    wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

    On the other hand, academic goals did not feature as a priority for the vast majority of respondents. Academic goals include reading comprehension, writing skills, critical thinking, time management, problem solving and maths skills.

    It could be argued that this does a disservice to the educational potential of autistic learners. However, while academic goals are important, wellbeing must come first. Without a strong foundation of physical and mental health, meaningful academic success is difficult to achieve.

    Finally, all groups actively discouraged educational goals that focused on improving eye contact and reducing stimming. The overriding consensus was that a focus on changing these aspects of behaviour is detrimental to a learner’s ability to work towards meaningful and functional educational goals including independence, wellbeing and social inclusion.

    Prioritising wellbeing

    There is growing support for prioritising wellbeing, communication, socialisation and daily living skills over more academic goals. However, teachers may not be equipped to design, teach and monitor goals that align with these priorities of the autistic community.

    Teachers in a UK study cited several barriers to supporting autistic learners in their classrooms. Their greatest frustration came from having limited access to autism-specific knowledge and expertise during their initial teacher training.

    Similar frustrations were also reported among Irish teachers. Many teachers in the study thought a specialised qualification should be compulsory for those teaching in autism classes.

    However, autism prevalence rates are on the rise, and there is an international trend towards inclusive education – educating children with special educational needs in mainstream classrooms. This means there is a growing likelihood that teachers will find themselves supporting autistic learners.

    Research shows that teachers’ attitudes, knowledge and skills towards inclusion are improved if they can go on placements during their training to schools that emphasise a culture of inclusion.

    Partnerships between universities and schools could be an important way to make this happen. This could help empower student teachers to go on to design and support effective individual education plans for their autistic learners.

    However, without a legal mandate for individual education plans in the Republic of Ireland, initial teacher education and teacher professional development programmes will continue to struggle to effectively prepare teachers for this part of their role.

    Laura Gormley works as an assistant professor in Dublin City university and received seed funding from SCoTENS (The Standing Conference on Teacher Education, North and South) to carry out this study.

    – ref. What autistic people think should be prioritised in education for autistic learners – https://theconversation.com/what-autistic-people-think-should-be-prioritised-in-education-for-autistic-learners-250195

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump thinks tariffs can bring back the glory days of US manufacturing. Here’s why he’s wrong

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Scott, Reader in International Politics, King’s College London

    The “liberation day” tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump have one thing in common – they are being applied to goods only. Trade in services between the US and its partners is not affected. This is the perfect example of Trump’s peculiar focus on trade in goods and, by extension, his nostalgic but outdated obsession with manufacturing.

    The fallout from liberation day continues, with markets down around the world. The decision to apply tariffs on a country-by-country basis means that rules about where a product is deemed to come from are now of central importance.

    The stakes for getting it wrong could be high. Trump has threatened that anyone seeking to avoid tariffs by shifting the supposed origin of a product to a country with lower rates could face a ten-year jail term.

    The White House initially refused to specify how it came up with the tariff levels. But it appears that each country’s rate was arrived at by taking the US goods trade deficit with that country, dividing it by the value of that country’s goods exports to the US and then halving it, with 10% set as the minimum.

    It has been noted that this is effectively the approach suggested by AI platforms like ChatGPT, Claude and Grok when asked how to create “an even playing field”.

    Economically, Trump’s fixation on goods makes no sense. This view is not unique to the president (though he feels it unusually strongly). There is a broader fetishisation of manufacturing in many countries. One theory is that it is potentially ingrained in human thinking by pre-historic experiences of finding food, fuel and shelter dominating all other activities.

    But for Trump, the thinking is likely related to a combination of nostalgia for a bygone (somewhat imagined) age of manufacturing, and concern over the loss of quality jobs that provide a solid standard of living for blue collar workers – a core part of his political base.

    Nostalgia is not a sensible basis for forming economic policy. But the role emotions play in international affairs has been receiving more attention. It has been identified as an “emotional turn” (where the importance of emotion is recognised) in the discipline of international relations.

    Of course, that’s not to say that the concern over jobs and the unequal effects of globalisation is misplaced. It is clear that blue-collar workers have suffered in the US (and elsewhere) for the last 40 to 50 years, with governments paying little attention to the decline.

    Many blue-collar workers, like these GM car plant employees in Missouri, have paid a high price for globalisation.
    Jon Rehg/Shutterstock

    Data on weekly earnings in the US split by educational level show that wages for those without a degree have declined or stagnated since around 1973, particularly among men. This is the cohort that disproportionately voted for Trump. Globalisation has created many benefits, not least to the United States, but these tend to be concentrated among the better educated.

    All too often the service-sector jobs that have filled the gap left by declining manufacturing have been precarious. That means low wages, low security, lack of union representation and few opportunities for moving up the ladder. It is unsurprising that there has been a backlash.

    Can’t turn back the clock

    So will Trump’s tariffs plan address this? The great tragedy is that there is little reason to think that they will.

    The loss of manufacturing jobs is partly about globalisation, which Trump is seeking to reverse. But research shows that trade and globalisation are often more of a scapegoat than a driving force, responsible for only a small chunk of job losses (typically said to be about 10%).

    The main cause of manufacturing’s decline is rising productivity. Today it simply requires fewer people to make goods due to the relentless increase in automation and the associated rise in how much each worker produces.

    If the whole US trade deficit were rebalanced through expanding domestic industries, this would increase the share of manufacturing employment within the US by about one percentage point, from about 8% today to 9% according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. This is not going to be transformative.

    The effects of tariffs are also doubled-edged. They will probably shift some manufacturing back to the US – but this could be self-defeating. More US steel production is good for workers, but the higher cost of US steel feeds through to higher prices for the products manufactured with it.

    This includes the cars Trump obsesses about. Less competitive prices means lower exports and a loss of jobs. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

    The 1950s were a unique time. By the end of the second world war, the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, accounting for one third of the world’s exports while taking only around a tenth of its imports.

    There were few other industrialised countries at the time, and these had been flattened by the war. The US alone had avoided this, creating a world of massive demand for US exports since nowhere else had a significant manufacturing base. That was never going to last forever.

    The other point about that time in history is that the economic system had been shaped by colonialism. European powers had used their position of power to prevent the rest of the world from industrialising. As those empires were dismantled and the shackles came off, those newly independent countries began their own processes of industrialisation.

    As for the US today, President Trump is mistaken if he really believes that tariffs will bring a new golden age of manufacturing. The world has changed.

    James Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump thinks tariffs can bring back the glory days of US manufacturing. Here’s why he’s wrong – https://theconversation.com/trump-thinks-tariffs-can-bring-back-the-glory-days-of-us-manufacturing-heres-why-hes-wrong-253991

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaitlyn DeGhetto, Associate Professor of Management, University of Dayton

    To attract business investment, American cities and states offer companies billions of dollars in incentives, such as tax credits. As the theory goes, when governments create a business-friendly environment, it encourages investment, leading to job creation and economic growth.

    While this theory may seem logical on its face, it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Business investment follows employees, not just the other way around. In fact, our research suggests workers care less about whether a city has business-friendly policies and more about how safe they feel living in it. And interestingly, we found that politics influence people’s risk perceptions more than hard data such as crime statistics.

    Our findings have major implications for cities and businesses. If people choose where to live and work based on perceived safety rather than economic incentives, then entrepreneurs and city leaders may need to rethink how they approach growth and investment.

    The many faces of risk

    We are management professors who surveyed more than 500 employees and entrepreneurs from across the country to better understand how they rate 25 large U.S. cities on various dimensions of risk.

    We asked about three different types of risk: risk related to crime, government function and social issues. Risk related to government function includes corruption and instability, while risk related to social issues includes potential infringements on individual rights.

    We found that people’s views of risk weren’t driven primarily by objective statistics, such as FBI crime data. Instead, they were shaped by factors such as media representations, word of mouth and geographic stereotypes.

    For example, studies suggest that crime in Denver has been rising, and U.S. News and World Report recently ranked it as the 10th most dangerous city based on FBI crime reports. However, the employees and entrepreneurs we surveyed ranked Denver as the safest city in the country.

    It’s all politics

    We found that political perspectives were the main factor biasing the rankings. For example, conservative-leaning employees and entrepreneurs believed that Portland, Oregon, is dangerous, ranking it as America’s ninth-riskiest city. In contrast, those who are liberal-leaning ranked it as the second-safest city in the country.

    Both of these beliefs can’t be accurate. Instead, when basing the ranking on objective crime data from the FBI, U.S. News ranked Portland the 15th most dangerous city in the country.

    When assessing risk related to how the government functions, conservatives praised politicians in Nashville, Charlotte and Dallas, while the liberals praised those in Denver, Minneapolis and Portland. Similarly, when considering risk related to social issues, conservatives said New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco were “risky,” while the liberals said Tampa, Miami and Houston should be avoided.

    Our findings also suggest that political perspectives influence the types of risk that employers and employees care about. For example, conservatives tend to care more about crime-related risk than liberals, and liberals care more about risk related to social issues.

    Now what?

    We’re not advocating that city leaders drop financial incentives altogether, or that employers ignore them. Evidence suggests that financial incentives and other business-friendly policies may be effective at attracting businesses and strengthening local economies.

    However, our research suggests that when individuals are making important life decisions about where to live, work and invest, a city’s level of risk matters. Importantly, beliefs about risk are subjective and are biased by political perspectives.

    In our view, city leaders must recognize and address concerns about crime, governance and social issues while actively working to improve public perceptions of their cities. Likewise, businesses may want to consider investing in cities that are less politically polarized when making investment decisions.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe – https://theconversation.com/cities-that-want-to-attract-business-might-want-to-focus-less-on-financial-incentives-and-more-on-making-people-feel-safe-250247

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –