Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: In Canada’s 2025 federal election, is anyone paying attention to rural communities?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sarah-Patricia Breen, Adjunct Professor, School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph

    The 2025 federal election is characterized by anxiety, primarily driven by the actions and economic consequences of United States President Donald Trump’s agenda.

    As tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty continue, it is little wonder why election promises have so far focused on jobs, tax breaks, infrastructure reinvestment, trade and military spending.

    While sovereignty and rising costs of food, energy and critical minerals are key election issues, rural Canada has not been the focus of any of the major political parties.

    The importance of rural Canada

    Rural Canada is home to roughly one in five Canadians. It’s also home to the vast majority of the Canadian land base, including watersheds and food sheds — geographical areas that supply food to the population — as well as energy sources, critical minerals and forests.

    As Canada faces increasing economic uncertainty, rural areas will play a critical role in supplying essential resources. Ensuring they benefit from this role requires strong place- and evidence-based rural development programs and policies from the federal government, whoever leads it after April 28.

    Significant challenges — from trade wars to climate change — impact every community across Canada. However, what this looks like and how this is felt on the ground is different across rural Canada. All too often government policies and programs fail rural citizens and communities in one of two ways:

    1. They don’t account for the impact of rural Canada. This means policies and programs fail to consider how rural realities can interfere with their intended implementation.

    2. They don’t account for the impact of policies and programs on rural Canada. These failures are the unintended impacts that “place-blind” policies and programs have on rural communities.

    Creating regional disparities

    These policy failures are driven by an urban bias in federal policies and programs. This bias is a result of limited or obscured rural data and the concentration of policy and decision-makers in Ottawa. These policy failures contribute to larger problems, like Canada’s growing issue with regional disparities, often along rural-urban lines.

    This is nothing new.




    Read more:
    Canadian election 2021: Why rural Canada must play a central role


    Rural Canada has a long history of being misunderstood and poorly represented in federal policy. Past and current federal efforts to include rural Canada in policymaking have been sporadic or uneven.

    A national Rural Secretariat was established in 1996, and a “rural lens” was established in 1998. Both had the express purpose of providing leadership and co-ordination related to rural and remote areas within the federal government. These programs were then dismantled by the former Conservative government in 2013.

    In 2019, the Liberal government established Canada’s first minister of rural economic development. Alongside this came a strategy for rural Canada, new tools to incorporate rural considerations and the Centre for Rural Economic Development, which included regionally located rural advisers.

    However, as of 2025, these efforts have been weakened or ignored. The minister for rural economic development is now the minister of agriculture and agri-food and rural economic development. The Centre for Rural Economic Development — now housed in a separate ministry from the minister — has quietly ended its regional rural adviser program.

    The risks of a sector-based focus

    These examples illustrate the ongoing uncertainty of how realities of rural Canada are integrated — or not — into federal policies and programs. Rural Canada is often lumped in with a particular sector, including agriculture or natural resources. The de facto rural policy then becomes sector-focused.

    This is a problem, because rural communities often have little or no power over resource development decisions and are largely at the mercy of companies that can simply pack up and leave.

    A sector-based approach also ignores the multiple, complex and integrated needs and opportunities across rural places. The 2024 State of Rural Canada illustrates this complexity of rural issues. It offers recommendations to policymakers, one of which is the development of a comprehensive, cross-sectoral strategy that recognizes the diversity of rural Canada and provides a framework for co-ordinated action.

    The need to shift to integrated, place-based approaches over sector-based is echoed in findings from research conducted both in Canada and internationally.

    Based on our research across rural Canada, we support these findings. We also support the recent statement by the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation, which calls on the federal government to implement the following actions:

    1. Revitalize the rural lens;
    2. Strengthen the Centre for Rural Development;
    3. Deliver rural development in rural Canada for rural Canada.

    No vision?

    Rural Canada is vital to the future of Canada. It is critical that all political parties campaigning for the federal election have a platform that meaningfully includes rural Canada — and refrain from focusing only on sectors that operate in rural Canada.

    The Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation recently released a list of questions that people can pose to their potential member of Parliament.

    No. 1 on this list is: “What is your party’s vision for rural and northern Canada?” And yet few of the parties are answering or tackling that question during the ongoing election campaign.

    Sarah-Patricia Breen has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Mitacs and the Government of British Columbia. She is a past president of the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation.

    Heather Hall has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Early Researcher Award Program, the Agricultural Research Institute of Ontario (ARIO) and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. She is a former board member of the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation and on the Board of Directors for the Northern Policy Institute.

    Kyle Rich receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He is a former board member of the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation.

    Ryan Gibson has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Ontario Agri-Food Innovation Alliance, and Mitacs. Ryan is the past president of the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation and the Canadian Community Economic Development Network.

    ref. In Canada’s 2025 federal election, is anyone paying attention to rural communities? – https://theconversation.com/in-canadas-2025-federal-election-is-anyone-paying-attention-to-rural-communities-253195

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: More than a department store: The long, complicated legacy behind Hudson’s Bay Company

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Heather Whiteside, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo

    The bankruptcy of the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) is often framed as the fall of “Canada’s oldest company.” Media narratives typically treat HBC as if it were a straightforward retail firm, albeit one with an exceptionally long history.

    But HBC was always more than a hinterland mercantile fur trader in earlier centuries, just as it was more than a department store anchoring downtown shopping in the 20th century.

    Like the beaver it nearly wiped out, HBC made Canada into its home by fundamentally transforming its environment, and no bankruptcy court will liquidate that legacy. Still, that legacy is more complex than many might assume.




    Read more:
    Hudson’s Bay liquidation: What happens when a company goes bankrupt?


    HBC and the making of Canada

    HBC’s initials have sometimes been jokingly elaborated as “here before Christ.” But if we were to take a more secular tone, we might instead say it was “here before Canada,” initiating some of the country’s basic economic and political institutions.

    In 1670, England’s King Charles II granted 18 investors the power to make laws, monopolize trade, enforce penalties and establish colonies in Rupert’s Land. Some four million square kilometres, this land grant centred on Hudson Bay but ranged from Labrador in the northeast to the Prairies in the southwest.

    Along with establishing fur-trading posts populated by transient servants, the company created its own colonies. In 1811, HBC shareholder Thomas Douglas (Lord Selkirk) organized the first settlers in the Prairies at Red River, now Winnipeg. Forty years later, in 1851, HBC’s former chief factor James Douglas took charge of developing Victoria on Vancouver Island.

    Of course, Indigenous Peoples were in these areas before long before Canada and long before HBC was. To secure its investments and protect its settlers, HBC representatives negotiated the first treaties with Indigenous Peoples west of the Great Lakes.

    The 1817 Selkirk Treaty at Red River and the 14 Douglas Treaties on Vancouver Island in the 1850s are examples of HBC’s expansive role in settler colonialism. Overlooked for some time, the Douglas Treaties are now shaping jurisprudence.

    Whereas the infamous HBC striped point blankets may be living room décor for some, for others they represented currency exchanged for long-ignored Indigenous land rights.

    Likewise, transferring the six-storey, 94-year-old HBC department store in downtown Winnipeg to 34 First Nations in 2022 might be seen as a form of reconciliation. However, the company itself indicated “shifting consumer behaviour” was the reason for the handover.

    Land and sovereignty

    Beyond its treaties with Indigenous Peoples and support for settler farmers, HBC is further implicated in the formation of Canadian sovereign territory writ large.

    If asked to name famous real estate transactions formative for state-making in North America, one might readily think of Louisiana or Alaska, but Canada, too, was created through purchase. HBC sold Rupert’s Land to the government of Canada for $1.5 million in 1869, forming a significant portion of what we now know as modern-day Canada.

    Hudson’s Bay kept roughly seven million acres after the sale, ensuring it would remain a significant force well into the 20th century. Writing of its lands in the Success Belt in the Prairies, HBC argued:

    “This land, with a cash payment, was retained as recompense for over 200 years of exploration, pioneering, and trading which the Company had done and without which Canada, as she is today, would not exist.”

    Incremental HBC land sales over the coming decades were accompanied by catchy slogans like Victoria as “The Garden of Canada” or Edmonton as Canada’s “Farthest West.”

    HBC pamphlets advertised wharves, orchards, gardens, houses, estates, seashore lots, residential subdivisions, hotels and businesses in coastal and interior British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Ontario.

    It wasn’t until the mid-20th century that the company parted with its remaining residential acreages in Winnipeg in 1954 and Victoria in 1961.

    A legacy that outlasts a ledger

    The timing of the HBC’s bankruptcy dovetails with renewed anxieties about American annexation as U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly threatens to turn Canada into the 51st state.

    Such annexation anxieties are nothing new for Canada.




    Read more:
    Canada as a 51st state? Republicans would never win another general election


    In the 1850s, United Kingdom parliamentary support for the HBC monopoly was driven in part by a desire to counter American influence. One English MP warned in 1857 that if the HBC’s trade between the Red River colony and London were to end, “the whole of it would be transferred to the United States.”

    Later, the Canadian federal government would use HBC to shore up its sovereignty claims in the High Arctic. In 1953 and 1955, more than 90 Inuit from northern Québec were forcefully relocated to the High Arctic. A government apology in February acknowledged the harm caused by the relocations, but the HBC’s decades-long role in instigating and organizing Inuit relocations was conspicuously omitted.

    As Canadians look to protect the country from foreign threats, it helps to know how the country came to be in the first place. The long-running and multi-faceted role of the HBC is an integral part of Canada’s story; it has always been more than just a company.

    Now saddled with $1 billion of debt, HBC’s demise seems inevitable. But its endurance beyond the original 1670 stockholders’ £4,720 investment speaks to its lasting impact. The HBC legacy will surely shape whatever’s next in store for Canada.

    Heather Whiteside receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    ref. More than a department store: The long, complicated legacy behind Hudson’s Bay Company – https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-department-store-the-long-complicated-legacy-behind-hudsons-bay-company-253818

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: U.S. tariff threats could fuel maple syrup fraud, but AI could help navigate this sticky situation

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Maleeka Singh, PhD Candidate, Food Science, University of Guelph

    Maple syrup, often called Canada’s “liquid gold,” has long been a target for fraudulent activities, such as the dilution or substitution with other syrups, due to its high demand.

    Amid threats from the United States of increased tariffs and the imposition of a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on all imports that aren’t compliant with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, increased maple syrup fraud is a possibility.

    Food fraud, or economically motivated adulteration, is the deliberate misrepresentation of food for economic gain. This can include the substitution, dilution, addition and/or the removal of ingredients. Mislabelling of products is another form of food fraud that can happen at any point in the supply chain, from farm to fork.




    Read more:
    Sweet little lies: Maple syrup fraud undermines the authenticity of Canada’s ‘liquid gold’


    Food fraud is a multi-billion-dollar industry and poses serious risks. It can harm consumer health, tarnish brand reputations and value, jeopardize the livelihood of legitimate producers and even hamper biodiversity and conservational efforts.

    The threats of tariffs on Canadian goods by the U.S., which includes maple syrup and equipment used to make it, has raised concerns on both sides of the border about price increases and supply shortages.

    Canada produces more than 70 per cent of the world’s maple syrup and Québec is the capital of this production. In 2024, the province exported around $450 million worth of maple syrup to the U.S.

    Historic increases in food fraud

    Historically, food fraud has increased during harsh economic times, growing financial pressures, pandemics, climate incidents, wars, supply chain disruptions or any other event that destabilizes the balance between food supply and demand. These circumstances often increase food prices, creating an incentive for fraudsters to exploit the system.

    From 2020 to 2024, the world faced significant supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, regional wars and significant climate events. Unsurprisingly, food fraud cases have increased tenfold, according to recent estimations.

    Threats of higher tariffs could further contribute to this problem by increasing the likelihood that fraudsters will substitute high-value foods for lower-value products.

    Given what we have learned from past cases of food fraud, threats of increased tariffs causes uncertainty in the supply chain, increasing the risk of fraudulent maple syrups from entering the market.

    To combat this threat, there is a need for rapid, real-time and cost-effective methods to test maple syrup for authenticity.

    A 25 per cent tariff on import goods could increase the risk of fraudulent maple syrups from entering the supply chain.
    (Shutterstock)

    Methods for testing maple syrup

    Since the 1980s, various methods and tools have been developed or used to detect maple syrup adulteration. However, food fraudsters continuously adapt to evade detection, making it progressively more difficult to test for maple syrup adulteration. The more complex the testing methods, the more difficult they are to circumvent.

    Traditionally, maple syrup quality testing involves measuring the dissolved sugar content in syrup through a unit of measurement known as degrees Brix. One degree Brix is equivalent to one per cent sugar. However, applications may be limited if unknown or non-conventional adulterants are used.

    As fraud techniques become more sophisticated, new approaches are needed to ensure the authenticity of maple syrup. Non-targeted food analytical methods, such as fluorescence spectroscopy, allow for the screening of a wide range of samples, creating a fingerprint of a sample. The fingerprints can be compared to a reference library of profiles, or multiple attributes specific to maple syrups, rather than just one.

    Testing maple syrup for glowing compounds

    A recent study by our research team at the University of Guelph’s Corradini Lab explored how fluorescence fingerprints can be used to detect maple syrup adulteration.

    Fluorescence fingerprinting works by examining how internal molecules in maple syrup glow when exposed to UV and visible light. These unique, glowing fingerprints allow for the detection of markers or features that may be indicative of maple syrup fraud.

    Analyzing the distinctive features in maple syrup fluorescence fingerprints (glow), using AI, to differentiate pure from adulterated maple syrup.
    (Singh et al.), CC BY-NC-ND

    Our study explored the adulteration of amber and dark maple syrups, with common maple syrup adulterants — namely beet, corn and rice syrups — at values ranging from one to 50 per cent.

    We mapped unique and distinctive features in the fluorescence fingerprints, which were then used for differentiating pure from adulterated syrups. When exposed to UV and visible light, maple syrup features changed depending on the type — beet, corn or rice syrups — and amount of adulterant.

    AI and machine learning for improved detection

    Using the markers of maple syrup identity, we were able to apply AI to analyze multiple fluorescent features simultaneously. This allowed for the identification of pure maple syrups from adulterants, with accuracy ranging from 75 to 99 per cent.

    In fact, analyzing the fluorescence fingerprints of pure and adulterated syrups with the assistance of AI and machine learning techniques improved detection by up to 30 per cent, and identified adulterants at levels less than two per cent.

    However, expanding the fluorescence fingerprint reference library can improve the accuracy and reliability of results. AI models often require very large and extensive databases. This will be crucial for understanding and accounting for how factors like the environment, geographic location and processing conditions may affect the maple syrup glow.

    The use of AI to analyze fluorescent markers in maple syrup could allow for rapid and effective identification of suspicious fraudulent samples.

    With the increased risk of food fraud due to threats of increased U.S. import tariffs on Canadian products, combining AI and maple syrup fingerprinting can detect maple syrup fraud. This will ensure that consumers receive safe, high-quality foods while protecting the identity of one of Canada’s most iconic products.

    Maleeka Singh receives funding from the Arrell Food Institute and the SMART Scholarship Program. Maleeka Singh is a member of the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT), International Association of Food Protection (IAFP) and the American Chemical Society (ACS).

    Maria G. Corradini receives funding from NSERC and the Arrell Food Institute.

    Maria G. Corradini is a member of the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT), the American Chemical Society (ACS), and the Society of Food Engineers (SOFE)

    Robert Hanner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. U.S. tariff threats could fuel maple syrup fraud, but AI could help navigate this sticky situation – https://theconversation.com/u-s-tariff-threats-could-fuel-maple-syrup-fraud-but-ai-could-help-navigate-this-sticky-situation-253396

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How our unconscious memory keeps us functioning efficiently in our daily lives

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ben Sclodnick, Postdoctoral Fellow, Psychology, McMaster University

    Automatic memory keeps working even when our minds wander. (Shutterstock)

    Have you ever been on a long drive and suddenly realized that you barely remember the past several minutes of driving?

    Although the thought of driving without paying conscious attention to the road may be unsettling, we actually carry out complex behaviours without much thought all the time — and it’s all thanks to our memory.

    In its simplest form, memory does one basic job: it forms associations between things that occur together. Just as we learn to associate a name with a face, or a scent with a food, memory allows certain contexts to become associated with specific thoughts and actions.

    For instance, when we learn to drive, we’re taught to move our foot to the brake pedal whenever we see brake lights ahead. As we gain experience behind the wheel and these two events repeatedly occur together, we quickly reach a point where we automatically get set to press the brake pedal the moment we see brake lights — without needing to think about doing so.

    Or perhaps you’ve noticed how fluently you can navigate through the apps and menus on your smartphone — as if your thumbs have little minds of their own — and that if someone re-organizes the apps on your home screen, this fluency can be difficult to relearn.

    Each time we do something, our memory system makes connections between the behaviour and the current context. With experience, behaviours that once required conscious control can be activated automatically when we encounter a familiar context.

    These automatic behaviours show how memory can control our behaviour without the need to consciously remember past events. Some researchers even call this form of memory “automatic control.”

    Because automatic memory is by nature unconscious, we often don’t notice how essential it is for most of our everyday behaviour. Automatic memory allows us to function efficiently.

    If we couldn’t rely on automatic control to trigger key actions while driving, we would be far less likely to survive those episodes of highway mind-wandering. If every thought and action required a conscious choice, something as simple as walking and talking would become an enormously demanding task.

    Automatic decision-making

    Driving scenarios are relatable, which makes them useful for illustrating how automatic memory works. They also show how important this form of memory is for us to function effectively.

    We rely on unconscious memory processes to keep our feet and thoughts on track while walking and talking with a friend.
    (Shutterstock)

    However, once you begin looking for automatic memory elsewhere, it becomes difficult to identify behaviours that don’t rely on these unconscious processes. Even our attempts to consciously control our attention may depend on automatic processes.

    For example, why is it that certain things come to mind when we walk into a meeting with our boss — while very different things come to mind when you get together with an old friend? It’s not as if we always make conscious decisions about what to remember in these cases.

    The explanation is that these two different scenarios are each associated with different sets of past experiences. When we encounter a particular person, experiences associated specifically with them spring to mind automatically as a result of the memory associations we’ve formed over time.

    Although automatic memory is essential to our daily functioning, it does come at a cost. For instance, we all find ourselves acting the same way over and over in familiar situations — even when those actions run contrary to the way we’d prefer to act. But the truth is, if we want to change our patterns of behaviour, we need repeated opportunities to form new associations so that our automatic behaviours being to align with our goals.

    One strategy for overcoming automatic memory is to practise the behaviours you want to change in new contexts. For example, if you find that having difficult conversations with your partner always ends with you to reacting negatively without meaning to, perhaps you need to try having those discussions in front of a friend or therapist.

    Changing the context like this can help reduce the chance that your typical responses will be activated, making it easier to practise changing your behaviours in critical moments. For behaviours that have been built over a lifetime, there’s no quick hack. Relearning takes time and effort.

    That is why, as an expert in memory and attention, I have compassion for people who struggle to change old habits. It’s also why I’m downright terrified when the city adds a new stop sign to an intersection where drivers are used to having the right of way.

    Ben Sclodnick receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

    ref. How our unconscious memory keeps us functioning efficiently in our daily lives – https://theconversation.com/how-our-unconscious-memory-keeps-us-functioning-efficiently-in-our-daily-lives-246763

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scientists should try to repeat more studies, but not those looking for a link between vaccines with autism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Kolstoe, Associate Professor of Bioethics, University of Portsmouth

    SamaraHeisz5/Shutterstock

    Scientists, professors, engineers, teachers and doctors are routinely ranked among the most trustworthy people in society. This is because these professions rely heavily on research, and good research is viewed as the most reliable source of knowledge.

    But how trustworthy is research? Recent news from the US suggests that the Trump administration wants to fund more “reproducibility studies”.

    These are studies that check to see if previous results can be repeated and are reliable. The administration’s focus seems to be specifically on studies that revisit the debunked claim of a link between vaccines and autism.

    This is a worrying waste of effort, given the extensive evidence showing that there is no link between vaccines and autism, and the harm that suggesting this link can cause. However, the broader idea of funding studies that attempt to repeat earlier research is a good one.

    Take research on Alzheimer’s disease as an example. In June 2024, Nature retracted a highly cited paper reporting an important theory relating to the mechanism of the disease. Unfortunately, it took 18 years to spot the errors and retract the paper.

    If influential studies like this were regularly repeated by others, it wouldn’t have taken so long to spot the errors in the original research.

    Alzheimer’s is proving a particularly tricky problem to solve despite the large amounts of money spent researching the disease. Being unable to reproduce key results contributes to this problem because new research relies on the trustworthiness of earlier research.

    More broadly, it has been known for almost ten years that 70% of researchers have problems reproducing experiments conducted by other scientists. The problem is particularly acute in cancer research and psychology.

    The Trump administration wants to fund more ‘reproducibility studies’.
    Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock

    Research is difficult to get right

    Research is complicated and there may be legitimate reasons research findings cannot be reproduced. Mistakes or dishonesty are not necessarily the cause.

    In psychology or the social sciences, failure to reproduce results – despite using identical methods – could be due to using different populations, for instance, across different countries or cultures. In physical or medical sciences problems reproducing results could be down to using different equipment, chemicals or measurement techniques.

    A lot of research may also not be reproducible simply because the researchers do not fully understand all the complexities of what they are studying. If all the relevant variables (such as genetics and environmental factors) are not understood or even identified, it is unsurprising that very similar experiments can yield different results.

    In these cases, sometimes as much can be learned from a negative result as from a positive one, as this helps inform the design of future work.

    Here, it is helpful to distinguish between reproducing another researcher’s exact results and being given enough information by the original researchers to replicate their experiments.

    Science advances by comparing notes and discussing differences, so researchers must always give enough information in their reports to allow someone else to repeat (replicate) the experiment. This ensures the results can be trusted even if they may not be reproduced exactly.

    Transparency is therefore central to research integrity, both in terms of trusting the research and trusting the people doing the research.

    Unfortunately, the incentive structure within research doesn’t always encourage such transparency. The “publish or perish” culture and aggressive practices by journals often lead to excessive competition rather than collaboration and open research practices.

    One solution, as new priorities from the US have suggested, is to directly fund researchers to replicate each other’s studies.

    This is a promising development because most other funding, alongside opportunities to publish in the top journals, is instead linked to novelty. Unfortunately, this encourages researchers to act quickly to produce something unique rather than take their time to conduct thorough and transparent experiments.

    We need to move to a system that rewards reliable research rather than just novel research. And part of this comes through rewarding people who focus on replication studies.

    Industry also plays a part. Companies conducting research and development can sometimes be guilty of throwing a lot of money at a project and then pulling the plug quickly if a product (such as a new medicine) seems not to work. The reason for such failures is often unclear, but the reliability of earlier research is a contributing factor.

    To avoid this problem, companies should be encouraged to replicate some of the original findings (perhaps significant experiments conducted by academics) before proceeding with development. In the long run, this strategy may turn out to be quicker and more efficient than the rapid chopping and changing that occurs now.

    The scale of the reproducibility, or replicability, problem in research comes as a surprise to the public who have been told to “trust the science”. But over recent years there has been increasing recognition that the culture of research is as important as the experiments themselves.

    If we want to be able to “trust the science”, science must be transparent and robustly conducted.

    This is exactly what has happened with research looking at the link between vaccines and autism. The topic was so important that in this case the replication studies were done and found that there is, in fact, no link between vaccines and autism.

    Simon Kolstoe works for the University of Portsmouth, and is a trustee of the UK Research Integrity Office (UKRIO). He receives research and consultancy funding from charities, universities and government. He chairs research ethics committees for the UK Health Research Authority, Ministry of Defence and Health Security Agency.

    ref. Scientists should try to repeat more studies, but not those looking for a link between vaccines with autism – https://theconversation.com/scientists-should-try-to-repeat-more-studies-but-not-those-looking-for-a-link-between-vaccines-with-autism-253696

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The radical European peasant movements that formed populist parties and breakaway republics

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jakub Beneš, Associate Professor in Central European History, UCL

    From Poland and France to the US, rightwing populist parties dominate rural and post-industrial hinterlands while the centrist liberal vote is concentrated in cities. This urban-rural divide is arguably the main political fault line in Europe and North America today.

    It appears the backlash against globalised capitalism is strongest when associated with rural conservatism and xenophobia against migrants. But anti-urban populism has not always been – and perhaps isn’t now – a simple reaction against the forces of modernity.

    In my new book, The Last Peasant War: Violence and Revolution in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe, I explore how peasant movements in eastern Europe during the first half of the 20th century often combined deep resentment of cities with aspirations for radical social and economic change. These movements aimed to create a more egalitarian countryside while enhancing its influence and prosperity.


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    The first world war was the main catalyst. Warring countries in central and eastern Europe introduced harsh controls of the rural economy to secure food for armies and the urban labour force. Villagers working small plots of land resented these measures and the cities that dictated their terms.

    Confronted with shortages at home and death at the front, hundreds of thousands of peasants deserted from the poorly led armies of Austria-Hungary and Russia. In Austria-Hungary, and later in the Russian civil war, scores of thousands of armed peasant deserters banded together to form motley “green” forces based in forests and hilly areas.

    These men, along with recently demobilised soldiers, led a wave of bloody violence in many areas of the east European countryside as the old empires disintegrated. Large estates were sacked, officials chased off, and Jewish merchants robbed and humiliated. Peasant crowds often targeted towns as the places that appeared to mastermind and benefit from their exploitation.

    In most places, the unrest did not last long. Yet the deserter movements and other forms of rural wartime resistance galvanised interwar agrarian politics – that is, politics concerned with the cultivation and distribution of land – on a scale not seen before or since.

    Peasants demanded the breakup and redistribution of large estate land, the end of wars led by parasitic cities, representation of peasants in national governments proportionate to their numbers, and local autonomy.

    These were undeniably revolutionary goals. The Russian Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin and his followers were forced to revise the mainstream Marxist view of a backward peasantry. His government legalised land seizures by peasants with a 1917 decree before reintroducing the despised wartime economy and later concluding an uneasy truce with the countryside during the 1920s. The war against the Soviet peasantry was finally won during Stalin’s brutal collectivisation drive in the early 1930s.

    Many ambitious peasant initiatives remained isolated from each other: village republics sprouted up in parts of the former Habsburg and Romanov empires with the chief aim of redistributing large estate land.

    As the new countries of east central Europe consolidated their power, they faced competition from micro-states in parts of Croatia, Slovenia and Poland. Many short-lived republics were reported across Ukraine and European Russia.

    More durable were the rural populist parties that became a defining feature of east European politics. From 1919 to 1923, Bulgaria was ruled by the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union under Aleksandar Stamboliyski, who introduced far-reaching reforms to elevate and reward agricultural work before he was murdered in a coup.

    In the former Habsburg lands, agrarian politics mushroomed in the aftermath of the first world war, influencing national politics through the end of the second world war. The peasant masses looked to the Polish People’s party, the Croatian Peasant party, and others to lead them forward on a “third way” to modernity, avoiding the pitfalls of both heartless liberalism and tyrannical communism.

    Eastern European governments implemented agrarian reform to benefit land-hungry villagers, but it fell short of expectations. Later, the rise of authoritarian regimes across much of the region by the early 1930s forced many peasant movements out of parliamentary politics. Politically marginalised, reeling from the Great Depression, millions of villagers embraced extremist politics, fascism included.

    But Hitler’s occupation of much of eastern Europe found little support among them. Large numbers of peasants joined or supported resistance movements, tipping the scales against the axis forces in Yugoslavia. In Poland, the rural populists had their own armed resistance numbering in the hundreds of thousands: the Peasant Battalions.

    By around 1950, peasant revolution was extinguished in Europe. Collectivisation in the east and mechanisation across the continent altered the fabric of rural life. Tens of millions left the land for cities, never to return.

    The politics they backed in the era of world wars are now a distant memory. At the time, city dwellers looked at them with a mixture of fear and puzzlement. How, they asked, could men like Stamboliyski and Stjepan Radić of the Croatian Peasant party rail against city life while claiming they wanted to make their societies more equal and prosperous?

    Then, as now, the world beyond the metropolis nurtured sentiments far more radical than we often assume.

    Jakub Beneš has received funding from UKRI’s Arts and Humanities Research Council.

    ref. The radical European peasant movements that formed populist parties and breakaway republics – https://theconversation.com/the-radical-european-peasant-movements-that-formed-populist-parties-and-breakaway-republics-251379

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Peru is losing its battle against organised crime

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amalendu Misra, Professor of International Politics, Lancaster University

    The president of Peru, Dina Boluarte, declared a state of emergency in the capital city, Lima, on March 18. The decree, which came amid a wave of violence, gives the police and military full control of the security situation there for a period of 30 days.

    Peru is no stranger to emergencies of this kind. Only last year, in September 2024, Boluarte’s government declared a 60-day state of emergency in 12 districts of the capital. The rationale for declaring the emergency now, as in the past, remains the same: to address the threat posed by criminal gangs.

    The latest emergency was prompted by the brazen killing of Paul Flores, the popular 39-year-old lead singer of a Peruvian band called Armonia 10. Flores was shot dead by assailants who attacked a bus he was riding in with bandmates and attempted to extort money from them as they left a concert.

    Peru has seen a spate of killings, violent extortion and attacks on public places in recent months. According to the Peruvian police, there were 459 killings across the country between January 1 and March 16, and over 1,900 reports of extortion in January alone.

    Many Peruvians point to the fact that the extortion and homicide racket may be far more severe than official statistics suggest. Plenty of those affected by criminality do not report their misfortune for fears of reprisal by criminal gangs.

    On March 21, a few days after the state of emergency in Lima was declared, Peru’s Congress voted to remove the interior minister, Juan José Santiváñez, from office. In a post on X, they said Santiváñez must take responsibility for his “inability to address the wave of citizen insecurity the country is facing”.

    Peru serves as a hotspot for sexual slavery, illegal organ trafficking and labour exploitation. In addition, it is also the second-largest producer of cocaine in the world.

    Over 95,000 hectares of land was dedicated to coca cultivation in the country in 2023 – an 18% increase from the figure recorded in 2021. This expansion has been driven primarily by cultivation in Peru’s indigenous territories and protected areas. Indigenous territories now account for 20% of all the coca cultivated in Peru.

    These lucrative operations are led by local crime organisations, often working in collusion with corrupt public officials and foreign partners. According to Organized Crime Index, these criminal networks include police officers and migration officials who work at control points on the borders and facilitate illegal activities.

    The logistics of Peru’s cocaine trade are often also managed by Serbian, Mexican and Colombian mafias. From Peru, cocaine goes through Mexico for the US market and Brazil for the European market. Some shipments are sent directly to Oceania and Japan.

    Criminal governance

    Peru’s perpetual political instability, weak criminal justice system and the poor presence of the state in its outlying territories allow various criminal groups to engage in their nefarious trade.

    Two former Peruvian presidents have faced corruption charges. One of them, Alejandro Toledo, was sentenced to 20 years in jail for corruption in 2024. The authorities accused Toledo of accepting US$35 million (£27 million) in bribes from Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht to allow the company to build a highway in Peru.

    Another controversial former president, Alberto Fujimori, had been in prison for 16 years for human rights abuses and corruption after being extradited from Chile in 2007. He was released in 2023 on humanitarian grounds and died the following year.

    Meanwhile, prosecutors in Peru are seeking a 34-year sentence for ex-president Pedro Castillo, who was removed from office and arrested after his attempt to dissolve Congress in late 2022 and rule by decree. Castillo has described his trial as “politicised” and has refused legal counsel provided by the judicial system.

    So many former Peruvian presidents have been accused of crimes that the country has designated a small jail on the outskirts of Lima specifically to house them. As Colombia-based journalist John Otis put it in a radio interview in 2023, the Barbadillo prison not only serves as a symbol of corruption, but also a testimony to political dysfunction in the country.

    The spread of economic activities operating outside the law, such as illegal gold mining, has emboldened organised crime in Peru. Instances of politicians and criminals working together to line their pockets are not uncommon.

    A good example is César Álvarez, the governor of the resource-rich Áncash region of western Peru. Nicknamed “the beast” by the citizens of the province because of his reputation for political violence, Álvarez allegedly operated with impunity by asserting his control through an elaborate network of government institutions and criminal organisations.

    According to an indictment by Peru’s public prosecutor’s office, Álvarez extorted, threatened and ordered the assassination of political adversaries while in office between 2007 and 2014. Álvarez, who has consistently denied any wrongdoing, was sentenced to eight years and three months in prison in 2019.

    When the government in Lima last declared an emergency in parts of the capital in 2024, the country’s federation of business associations stated: “We live under siege from organised crime which has taken control of the country in the alarming absence of the state”.

    This statement appears prophetic. Peru, it appears, is losing the battle against organised crime.

    Amalendu Misra is a recipient of Nuffield Foundation and British Academy Fellowships.

    ref. Peru is losing its battle against organised crime – https://theconversation.com/peru-is-losing-its-battle-against-organised-crime-252349

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: At a pivotal meeting, the world is set to decide how to cut shipping emissions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Bullock, Research Associate, Shipping and Climate Change, University of Manchester

    GreenOak / shutterstock

    You’re probably reading this article on a device assembled in Asia, using materials shipped there from all around the world. After it was made, your phone or laptop most likely travelled to your country on a huge ship powered by one of the world’s largest diesel engines, one of thousands plying the world’s oceans. All this maritime activity adds up: international shipping burns over 200 million tonnes of fossil fuels a year.

    The sector is trying to clean up its act. Its 2023 global climate strategy set a “strive” ambition of 30% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, relative to 2008 emissions and 80% by 2040. That’s close to a level of ambition that can deliver on the Paris climate agreement, but this target urgently needs policies to make it happen. This is also urgent: 2030 is only five years away.

    The technology to deliver a rapid transition exists. Wind propulsion technology – yes, sails – can be fitted to existing ships, and much of the sector could soon switch to zero-emission fuels if they were seen as a good investment.

    That said, the transition needs to be fast and will be costly. This raises questions about who is to foot the bill.

    That’s the backdrop for a pivotal meeting this week in London at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The IMO is the United Nations’ agency, made up of 175 nation states, charged with coordinating a response on shipping’s climate pollution. At this meeting, nations will take a series of decisions which will have a profound impact on whether the sector makes a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, or if it continues to limp along on its current high-carbon course.

    There are two crucial and interlinked decisions to be taken, and at the moment the proposals range from strong to exceptionally weak. Outcomes could go either way.

    Improving efficiency

    The efficiency of shipping hasn’t got much attention, even though it’s an important part of reducing emissions. One key policy is the Carbon Intensity Indicator, which measures how much carbon is emitted per tonne of cargo for every mile travelled. The IMO’s current strategy requires improving this efficiency by 40% by 2030, compared to 2008 levels.

    Annual fuel oil consumption (by ship type):

    How different fuels were used by different ship types (2023 data).
    IMO Future Fuels, CC BY-NC-SA

    But here’s the problem: global demand for shipping is expected to grow by around 60% in that same time. So even with a 40% efficiency boost, total emissions from shipping could stay the same – or even go up – because so much more cargo will be moved.

    Despite this, many countries haven’t updated their policies to reflect this growing demand or to align with the IMO’s updated “30% cuts by 2030” target.

    Some countries, including Palau – a Pacific island nation vulnerable to climate change – and the UK, have pushed for stronger action. But there remains a long way to go before the world agrees on an ambitious path forward.

    Green energy

    The more hotly debated issue is around a fiendishly complicated set of “mid-term measures”. A key part of this is creating a “global fuel standard” – essentially, targets for how much “zero emission” (or “green”) fuel ships must use and by when.

    These rules would come with penalties or costs for using polluting fuels, which would effectively put a price on greenhouse gas emissions. Experts have long agreed that putting a price on shipping pollution is the most effective way to encourage cleaner and more efficient practices. But despite nearly 20 years of discussions, countries still haven’t agreed how to do this.

    Decisions are further complicated by wrangles over how to fairly distribute the revenues from these penalties.

    Who should get the revenues from shipping pollution?
    Uncle_Dave / shutterstock

    The good news is that the world is less than a week away from a decision which will put a price on shipping pollution in some form. The bad news is that proposals on the table could easily deliver a weak, uncertain price signal which doesn’t push the industry to invest in more green solutions. And the fuel standard itself might fall short of the ambitious climate targets set in 2023.

    Until now, talks on improving shipping efficiency and on pricing polluting fuels have happened separately. A big task at the IMO summit in London is to integrate the two into one coordinated plan.

    From a climate perspective, these policies should be judged by whether they will work together to cut shipping emissions by 30% by 2030 (the IMO’s current target).

    As things stand, that outcome is still possible – but is now an uphill battle. Agreement this week is crucial and countries will show their true colours. If they can’t agree to agree more ambitious policies it will undermine the IMO’s ability to regulate shipping emissions.

    Historically, the IMO tends to take its biggest decisions in the last hours of Thursday in week-long negotiations. Both ambitious and more cautious countries have a lot on the line, as the measure adopted will be legally binding for all of them.

    A positive result depends on whether powerful groups such as the European Union line up to support ambitious measures, as as proposed by African, Caribbean, Central American and Pacific countries as well as the UK.

    Although countries have agreed on climate targets for shipping, some still refuse to support the policies needed to actually phase out fossil fuels fast enough. That stance much change. If done right, IMO negotiations this week could be a turning point – not just for shipping, but for renewable energy and climate action worldwide.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    Simon Bullock is a member of the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology

    Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the ClimateWorks Foundation.

    Tristan Smith owns shares in UMAS International, that working alongside UCL Energy Institute, provides advisory services on the subject of maritime decarbonisation. My research group is recipient of research funding from UKRI, Climateworks Foundation and Quadratue Climate Foundation. I am on the advisory board of the Global Maritime Forum, and the Strategy Board of the Getting to Zero Coalition – not for profit structures that work across governments and industry stakeholders on maritime decarbonisation.

    ref. At a pivotal meeting, the world is set to decide how to cut shipping emissions – https://theconversation.com/at-a-pivotal-meeting-the-world-is-set-to-decide-how-to-cut-shipping-emissions-253462

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Drinking pee to improve health is an ancient practice – but the risks outweigh the evidence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    KK_face/Shutterstock

    TV star Ben Grylls says he does it for survival – and teaches his reality show contestants to do the same. Mexican boxer Juan Manuel Márquez practised this therapy to train for his 2009 fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr (he lost). Former Indian prime minister Morarji Desai claimed a daily glass of the stuff was a remedy for many diseases and contributed to his longevity.

    What is the therapy these celebrities practice? Urophagia, also known as urine therapy, is the practice of drinking urine.

    Whether the urine is your own, someone else’s or even obtained from an animal, people have been drinking pee as medicine for thousands of years. Most claims about urine therapy are based on anecdotes or ancient texts with no robust scientific evidence to support the benefits of urine therapy. There is evidence to show that drinking urine has a number of health risks, however,

    In Indian Ayurvedic medicine, urine was used to treat asthma, allergies, indigestion, wrinkles and even cancer. The Roman poet Catullus believed urine helped to whiten teeth – possibly due to its ammonia content.

    As a rudimentary test for diabetes, doctors used to taste urine to check how sweet it was. Now, of course, we have urine test strips to check for glucose in the urine.

    In 1945, British naturopath John W. Armstrong published a book called “The Water of Life: A Treatise on Urine Therapy.” He claimed that drinking one’s own urine and massaging it into the skin could cure major illnesses.

    Historically, drinking pee to treat illnesses may have made sense because of a lack of medical alternatives. But, as the urine-sipping celebrities above show, the practice is still followed today.

    There are reported cases of using urine for home remedies to treat seizures in children in Nigeria. The China Urine Therapy Association claims that drinking and washing with urine can cure constipation and skin sores.

    Waste not, want not?

    Urine is made by the body to get rid of waste. It is mostly made up of water (about 95%) and several waste products, including urea (2%), which is made by the liver after breaking down proteins in the body, creatinine, which is left over from energy-releasing processes in the muscles, and salts. If urine is just waste, how could drinking it be beneficial?

    The kidneys act as regulators – not just to get rid of any toxins but to remove anything that it doesn’t need. For example, excess vitamins that aren’t needed by the body are found in urine.

    Drinking urine means these vitamins and minerals are getting recycled instead of being wasted – this also goes for other hormones, proteins and antibodies that can be found in urine. However, the amounts of these substances in a glass of urine are unlikely to be enough to be beneficial and a vitamin supplement may be more effective.

    Some advocates of urine therapy believe it can help prevent allergic reactions and control autoimmune conditions. The antibodies in the urine are supposed to make the immune system stronger.

    Other modern uses also include cleansing and detoxification – some people have claimed that continually drinking recycled urine leads to cleaner urine and blood by removing toxins and leading to better overall health.

    However, there’s no scientific evidence to support any of these claims.

    Some social media influencers claim that urine has healing properties and drinking or applying it to the skin can help skin conditions such as acne and infections. As mentioned, urine does contain urea, which is often added to skin care products as a moisturiser. But the concentration of urea in urine is unlikely to be high enough to have this effect.

    Urine also contains dehydroepiandrosterone, a steroid hormone produced by the body that declines with age, which has been marketed as an anti-ageing ingredient – but there isn’t enough data to demonstrate its efficacy.

    Risky business

    Some advocates of urine therapy believe that urine is sterile. However, research has found that urine naturally contains low levels of bacteria and research shows that bacteria can further contaminate the urine when it leaves the body. Drinking urine, then, can introduce bacteria and toxins into the gut and potentially cause further illness like stomach infections.

    Urine becomes more concentrated when it comes out again – the kidneys may have to work harder to filter out the excess, putting extra strain on them. The kidneys need water to process these salts.

    Drinking urine means you have to pee out more water than you get from it, which speeds up dehydration – it’s similar to drinking seawater. Some drugs, such as penicillin antibiotics or heart medicines, are also excreted in the urine – by drinking urine, it can cause toxic levels of these drugs to build up in the body.

    Mainstream medical communities do not endorse urine therapy as it lacks scientific evidence. Small amounts of urine drinking are unlikely to be harmful. But for tangible health benefits, other therapies with scientific evidence may be the way to go.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Drinking pee to improve health is an ancient practice – but the risks outweigh the evidence – https://theconversation.com/drinking-pee-to-improve-health-is-an-ancient-practice-but-the-risks-outweigh-the-evidence-253353

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Children from poorer families do worse at school – here’s how to understand the disadvantage gap

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ceri Brown, Associate Professor (Reader) in Education, University of Bath

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    The problem of the disadvantage gap – also known as the attainment gap – is a persistent one in education in England. It refers to how children from certain groups, such as those from poorer backgrounds, ethnic minorities or who have been in care, do worse at school than their peers.

    It’s a central concern of the recent interim report of the ongoing review into England’s national curriculum, which points out that the current system is not working well for everyone.

    The disadvantage gaps between groups can be measured in different ways. The more simplistic way is to consider outcome measures, such as exam results, in isolation.

    For example, at the end of their primary schooling, eleven-year-olds in English state schools take standardised key stage assessments – SATs. These results are used to calculate the disadvantage gap index. The index ranks all pupils in the country and assesses the difference in the average position of disadvantaged pupils and others. It shows whether the gap between disadvantaged pupils and their peers is widening or closing.

    A disadvantage gap of zero would indicate that there is no difference between the average performance of disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils. According to the Department for Education’s figures for 2023-24, the disadvantage gap index at this level is 3.13 in children’s key stage scores. While it had been decreasing between 2011 and 2018, the gap rose to the highest level since 2012 in 2022.

    For GCSEs, taken at age 16, the disadvantage gap index is 3.92. It has decreased slightly after widening in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

    Measuring progress

    A more sophisticated analysis of the disadvantage gap can be made by comparing the rate of progress that children achieve through their schooling career. Children in English state schools take a baseline assessment when they first enter their reception year, and their progress from this point can be measured by comparing with their SATs key stage results in year six.

    Ideally, all children would progress in their learning at the same rate. But research by one of us (Nadia Siddiqui) shows that pupils from persistently low socioeconomic groups do not progress at the same level as their counterparts.

    A recent longitudinal research study – meaning that it has tracked the same participants over years – has shown that since the pandemic, there has been a very big impact on the reading and maths progress of primary school children from poorer backgrounds.

    At secondary level, progress can be measured by comparing children’s progress from their SATs at the end of primary school with their GCSE exam results. This measure is called “progress 8”. It indicates how much a secondary school has helped pupils progress from their point of entry at year seven, when compared to a government-calculated expected level of improvement.

    The progress 8 measure focuses on the progression children make from their starting points, as opposed to fixating only on the end points in children’s learning.

    The disadvantage gap can be measured using test results to gauge progress over time.
    panitanphoto/Shutterstock

    The government uses this measure not to compare individuals, but rather schools to see how much value has been added by each school relative to other schools. But it also measures the progress of key groups, such as children receiving free school meals or of different ethnicities.

    The latest data shows that pupils from poorer backgrounds – those eligible for free school meals – made less progress than their peers. This was the case in every ethnic group.

    Reducing the gap

    In the last few decades, a number of education policies have been introduced to narrow the disadvantage gap determined by household poverty.

    Direct funding to improve educational targets is a popular approach and has been adopted in countries across the world. This means schools receive additional funding for admitting disadvantaged pupils. This money should be spent on evidence-informed interventions for improving educational outcomes of disadvantaged pupils.

    Since 2010, schools in England have been incentivised by pupil premium funding to invest directly in the academic learning of disadvantaged pupils if they are not reaching expected levels. Schools receive funding for each pupil who is, or has been, eligible for free school meals, and for those who have been in care.

    Pupil premium funding has changed the pattern of intake of disadvantaged pupils by schools. Segregation of poorer and wealthier pupils, in which pupils from poorer households are clustered in particular schools, has reduced. Schools now take more of a mix of children from poorer and wealthier backgrounds.

    This is good because mixed schools create fairer and more inclusive societies where pupils are better equipped to succeed in diverse environments. What’s more, the relative disadvantage gap has slightly improved for pupils at primary school.

    The evidence on interventions for disadvantaged pupils is still evolving. For practical reasons, approaches to improving the academic disadvantage gap are mainly applied at school level.

    However, in some places, area-based funding schemes, which channel funding to selected regions of particular high poverty, have been introduced. Our research is exploring the extent to which this may be a feasible way to narrow the disadvantage gap.

    Ceri Brown receives funding from UKRI (ESRC) and the Mayor of London’s Violence Reduction Unit.

    Nadia Siddiqui receives funding from UKRI, EEF, British Council.

    ref. Children from poorer families do worse at school – here’s how to understand the disadvantage gap – https://theconversation.com/children-from-poorer-families-do-worse-at-school-heres-how-to-understand-the-disadvantage-gap-235706

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nasa and Esa want to bring Martian rocks to Earth. Here’s what will happen to the samples once they get here

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Bridges, Professor of Planetary Science, University of Leicester

    Nasa/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

    A mission will deliver rock and soil from Mars to laboratories on Earth in the 2030s. Mars Sample Return (MSR) is led by Nasa with participation from the European Space Agency (Esa). The mission will allow scientists to use the best laboratory instruments on Earth to determine whether Mars hosted microbial life billions of years ago.

    So what will happen to the samples once they arrive on Earth?

    Nasa’s Perseverance rover has already been doing the hard work of collecting the samples. The rover has been exploring a Martian location known as Jezero Crater since landing in February 2021. Along the way, it has used its drill to extract cores – cylindrical samples of rock – from Martian rocks, depositing them in sample tubes on the floor of the crater.

    Present day levels of cosmic radiation at the Martian surface are thought to be too high for life to survive there. However, conditions may have been more hospitable to life billions of years ago, and it is these potential traces of ancient life that Perseverance was designed to seek out.

    In September 2023, an independent review board found MSR’s budget and schedule to be “unrealistic,” and said that this would potentially delay the mission’s launch beyond 2028. This has led Nasa to seek alternative approaches to carrying out the mission.

    The space agency issued a call for ideas from industry and is currently studying two proposals. But in terms of the broad mechanics, something – a rover or small helicopter – will need to collect the sample tubes and deliver them to a vehicle. That vehicle will then blast off the surface of Mars.

    A capsule, carrying those Martian samples, will eventually enter the Earth’s atmosphere and parachute down to a government facility in Utah, US. This is all projected to happen in the 2030s.

    Once safely on Earth, the samples from Jezero Crater will be analysed using sensitive instruments that are too big and complex to send on a rover to Mars. That’s the essence of MSR: in order to unambiguously identifying any traces of ancient Martian life, scientists will need to carry out multiple experiments and replicate the results.

    In other words, separate and independent scientific teams will have to show that they can get the same outcomes from those experiments.

    The scientific community is still making new discoveries with the 380kg of rock and soil from the Moon that was delivered to Earth by the six Apollo missions over 50 years ago. In the Apollo era, scientists had to work out a plan to keep the Moon samples pristine, in order to preserve them for generations of scientists to study.

    One concept for how Mars Sample Return would work.

    Their solution was to put them in glove boxes: sealed containers that allow users to manipulate the contents via long gloves that extend from the outside to the inside of the box. These glove boxes contain dry nitrogen gas that protects against chemical changes to the samples. That’s worked well for the Moon rocks; the Apollo 11-17 samples can be seen and studied at Nasa’s Johnson Space Center in Houston today.

    A more challenging plan will be needed for the approximately 500g of carefully selected Martian rock and soil. The facilities in which they are eventually stored will need to carefully control factors such as humidity and temperature. They will also need to prevent the samples from being contaminated by terrestrial microbes.

    The requirements for managing the Martian samples are decided by an organisation called the Committee on Space Research (Cospar). Under Cospar guidance, MSR is defined as a Category V Restricted Earth Return Mission.

    While scientists do not generally expect the Martian samples to contain present-day life, the requirements mean that the samples will be treated as if they do until the possibility is excluded. Cospar says: “A program of life detection and biohazard testing, or a proven sterilisation process, should be undertaken as an absolute precondition for the controlled distribution of any portion of the sample.”

    Thus, a major part of MSR planning is the design and construction of a sample receiving facility (SRF), a building where initial analyses of the rock and soil are to take place. The work will be conducted under strict biocontainment rules, which mean that scientists will use equipment and follow procedures usually deployed in some of the most world’s most secure labs, designed to study harmful bacteria and viruses such as Ebola and Marburg virus. This situation will persist until a “sample safety assessment” has taken place.

    This safety assessment will determine whether the samples can be studied at lower levels of biological containment. Only after that stage and another called “basic characterisation”, where scientists carry out an initial study of the minerals and chemistry of the rocks, will the samples gradually be released to the wider scientific community.

    One problem for the mission is the complexity and cost of the SRF, which is expected to rise to hundreds of millions of dollars, or euros. This is largely because of the need to not only comply with the Cospar rules but also to incorporate the range of microscopes and spectrometers needed for the analyses.

    Much of the reason for the delays in delivering the overall MSR programme come down to cost, so there is currently pressure to reduce the price tag. Against this background, Nasa and Esa have convened a measurement definition team, a panel of scientists who will determine which analyses are needed within the SRF. The resulting report will be published shortly.

    In parallel, a programme of work to design and build new technology for MSR that allows both biological containment and analysis of the minerals in Martian samples is taking place. Esa, with Nasa collaboration, is funding the design of secure chambers called multi-barrier isolator cabinets, inside which the Martian rock and soil can be studied.

    These cabinets will also incorporate the range of different scientific instruments needed for the basic characterisation stage. These could include powerful microscopes and a Raman spectrometer.

    Combining the requirements for containment and analysis in this way has the potential to not only reduce the time needed before samples can be released to the scientific community, but also to substantially reduce the costs of the SRF and thus help the overall MSR programme.

    John Bridges of Space Park Leicester, University of Leicester is funded by the European Space Agency and UK Space Agency to design and build isolator, spectroscopic and portable technology for Mars Sample Return at Space Park Leicester. He is a member of the NASA-ESA MSR Measurement Definition Team.

    ref. Nasa and Esa want to bring Martian rocks to Earth. Here’s what will happen to the samples once they get here – https://theconversation.com/nasa-and-esa-want-to-bring-martian-rocks-to-earth-heres-what-will-happen-to-the-samples-once-they-get-here-253914

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kenya’s courts are corruption hotspots – radical actions the chief justice must take

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Gedion Onyango, Research Fellow, Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, London School of Economics and Political Science

    Kenya’s chief justice, Martha Koome, announced a change of strategy in March 2025 to fight corruption in the judiciary. The country’s courts are some of the hotspots of corrupt practices, from bribery of judges to obstruction of justice. The judiciary will now partner with the national anti-corruption commission and the National Intelligence Service to identify patterns, hotspots and individuals for early intervention. Gedion Onyango, who researches public accountability, anti-corruption and whistleblowing reforms, examines the new multi-agency approach.

    What is the context in which this multi-agency strategy was announced?

    The Kenyan judiciary has been tainted by corruption for decades. More than half of Kenyans surveyed in 2024 believed some judges and magistrates were corrupt; 22.9% believed most were corrupt. In another national survey 10 years earlier, 35% of Kenyans regarded the judiciary as highly corrupt.

    The apparent improvement in public perceptions (from 35% to 22%) may stem from anti-corruption efforts in Kenyan courts. The positive changes could also result from robust judicial leadership in recent years.

    Most recently, there have been calls for the chief justice to resign for failing to act against corrupt judges and magistrates.

    The judicial anti-corruption initiative isn’t entirely new. It represents a will to implement the existing policy and laws that have evolved from previous initiatives.

    Anti-corruption policies in Kenya have shifted to multi-agency frameworks. This strategy acknowledges the intertwined nature of corruption. The approach has to be cohesive, unified and well coordinated, in the public and private sectors.

    Kenya’s lead anti-corruption agency is the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission. Since 2015, the agency has sought to re-engineer the fight against corruption through collective action and partnerships with a range of public and private sector players.

    This strategy draws from lessons learned from failed approaches from the past. The Public Service Integrity Program, for instance, combined law enforcement and prevention approaches.

    Why the multi-agency approach against corruption?

    Multi-agency initiatives offer several advantages in the fight against corruption.

    First, they give those involved a sense of owning the policy and having responsibility. As a result, the responsibility for combating corruption is shared rather than resting solely with the national anti-corruption commission.

    This addresses a gap in the battle against corruption not just in Kenya but in other countries.

    Policy ownership ensures that anti-corruption measures are better integrated into the unique complexities and norms of each sector. It enhances policy awareness among key actors, communication through diverse engagements, research through shared studies and assessments, stakeholder engagements, and training across sectors.

    Second, the multi-agency approach creates interdependence. Each participating institution contributes distinct expertise. This approach is clear in the new strategy, where the National Intelligence Service uses intelligence to identify areas susceptible to corruption in the judiciary.

    Third, multi-agency initiatives are more likely to cultivate trust among diverse stakeholders. They engage and share responsibilities. Partners become familiar with each other’s strengths and challenges, as well as their own limitations.




    Read more:
    Kenya’s whistleblowers are key to fighting corruption: how a new law could protect them


    Multi-agency initiatives can turn into islands of performance, building a professional community united by a common purpose.

    My 2024 study of collaborative arrangements in Kenya shows that cultivating trust among partners is critical. It is the glue binding agencies in complex governance areas, such as security.

    I found that when trust is absent from a multi-agency initiative, its operations tend to be symbolic and inefficient.

    What are the obstacles to joint action?

    The potential obstacles to joint action may stem from lack of commitment, power play among actors, poor coordination and weak leadership.

    A combination of these factors will lead to ineffective communication, distrust, and even conflicts.

    Another critical factor is political interference. According to a 2023 survey, political elites have misused state power and resources. This has fostered a culture of corruption in public life.

    Another related obstacle is under-funding of anti-corruption agencies, the judiciary and other oversight institutions. This has a bearing on staff retention, and effective operations of the commission and other public institutions. Under these circumstances, it is no surprise that some institutions have been inhabited by individuals with questionable integrity.

    This suggests that some national anti-corruption institutions are ill-positioned to spearhead joint actions to tackle corruption.

    What are the chances of success for the new multi-agency approach?

    The Kenyan judiciary requires more than just a multi-agency strategy to combat corruption within its ranks. It has been a core member of the Kenya Leadership and Integrity Forum for years, but has yet to do some of the things that were required. The proposed court integrity committees do not differ much from the court performance committees outlined in the programme.

    The judiciary has been a partner in other multi-agency arrangements too. But the courts continue to be hotspots for corruption.




    Read more:
    Hotbed of corruption: Kenya’s elite have captured the state – unrest is inevitable


    What would success look like?

    Judicial corruption cannot be addressed in isolation. It reflects the overall state of corruption in the country. Effective solutions must involve reforms tailored to the sector, supported by genuine political will.




    Read more:
    The art of bribery: a closeup look at how traffic officers operate on Kenya’s roads


    The chief justice’s public acknowledgement of corruption within her own courts is a positive step. But she must take more radical actions. These include prosecuting and removing high court judges and other officials, establishing a system to compensate victims of court corruption, and actively engaging civil society groups.

    Gedion Onyango receives funding from UKRI’s CPAID project. He is also a senior research associate at the University of Johannesburg, South Africa.

    ref. Kenya’s courts are corruption hotspots – radical actions the chief justice must take – https://theconversation.com/kenyas-courts-are-corruption-hotspots-radical-actions-the-chief-justice-must-take-253753

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Sudan on the brink of civil war: bold action from the international community is needed

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Madhav Joshi, Research Professor & Associate Director, Peace Accords Matrix (PAM), Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies and Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame

    South Sudan is likely to return to full-blown civil war unless the international community takes a radical approach to stabilise the country and re-engage in the peace process.

    Since its formation in 2020, South Sudan’s unity government has not been steady. President Salva Kiir has reshuffled the cabinet, weakening the presence of the main opposition party, SPLM-IO. He’s previously fired two of the country’s five vice-presidents to promote his allies.

    The unity government was formed as part of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan. This agreement was negotiated and signed in September 2018 to end years of violence between forces loyal to Kiir on one hand and Riek Machar on the other.

    The agreement had a 36-month transition period. It established a unity government to reform institutions, draft a constitution, ensure transitional justice and conduct the country’s first election.

    Seven years into the implementation process, however, South Sudan has yet to fulfil many of the peace deal’s commitments. These include demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration of combatants, and training and establishing necessary unified forces.

    The timeline for holding elections, another benchmark of the transition, has been extended until December 2026. This moves the completion of the transition process to February 2027 from the initial January 2021. It is the fourth such mutually agreed extension.

    The challenges of the slow implementation of the peace agreement escalated in March 2025, with violent clashes in the Upper Nile State and a political crisis. First vice-president Machar was put under house arrest. Reports say a convoy of more than 20 heavily armed vehicles forcefully entered Machar’s residence, disarmed his bodyguards, and held him and his wife Angelina Teny. Teny is South Sudan’s interior minister.




    Read more:
    Kiir and Machar: insights into South Sudan’s strongmen


    It is my view that the current crisis has little to do with the recent clashes. This crisis in South Sudan has been long in the making. It has its roots in the country’s faltering peace implementation process.

    As part of my ongoing research, I have gathered data on the content and implementation of 42 comprehensive civil war peace agreements in 33 countries dating back to 1989. In none of these agreements and countries have I observed delays in implementation like in South Sudan – or the arrest of a main opposition leader who is a signatory to a peace agreement.

    South Sudan’s path to peace since its independence in 2011 has been challenging. Key to achieving stability is the peace process itself. The international community must lead a radical push to get signatories to the 2018 peace deal to implement it. This approach is necessary for regional peace and stability – the ongoing violence could easily escalate and merge with the Sudan war and drag in Uganda.

    What’s happening

    The current crisis in South Sudan began in early March 2025 when the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces clashed with the White Army militia group. The White Army took control of the town of Nasir in the oil-rich Upper Nile State.

    South Sudan’s kleptocratic leaders have been quick to associate Machar, the SPLM-IO leader, with the White Army. This is largely because the militia group primarily recruits from the Nuer ethnic group, which Machar belongs to.

    However, at the centre of these latest tensions – fanned by a slow peace implementation process – are leaders looking to strengthen their political dominance to gain unhindered access to revenue from natural resources. South Sudan’s economy is heavily reliant on oil.

    The training and deployment of unified forces, and establishment of a Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing are lagging behind. So are constitutional and electoral reforms, including a census to determine voter numbers, as well as a hybrid court for war crimes and a reparations authority.




    Read more:
    Violence in South Sudan is rising again: what’s different this time, and how to avoid civil war


    The implementation process began to slow down when military leaders loyal to Kiir started to co-opt generals loyal to Machar. Leadership positions within the army were divided between military officials loyal to Kiir, Machar and other groups in June 2023. This diluted SPLM-IO’s influence in the unity government.

    Rising tensions led to the Tumaini Peace Initiative, launched in May 2024 and hosted by the Kenyan government. This initiative aimed to bring other armed groups under the fold of the peace process. However, it undermined the 2018 peace deal by not tying the initiative to the revitalised agreement.

    Over several rounds of peace talks, it has became clear that a segment of the ruling elite wants to influence the implementation of the 2018 deal to control political power – and therefore, South Sudan’s resources. The unfolding events show an effort to hold the peace process hostage towards this end.

    A narrow path forward

    The path to peace and stability in South Sudan is challenging. In my research, I have examined situations where multiple armed groups either continue to fight or new ones emerge in conflict situations.

    My research consistently shows that the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements stabilises such situations by addressing security uncertainties, reforming institutions and addressing underlying grievances.




    Read more:
    What makes peace talks successful? The 4 factors that matter


    Stakeholders in South Sudan must prioritise the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement. Since the signatory parties are unwilling to implement the agreement, someone must step in to fill this void. With the entire peace process held hostage and key signatories of the peace agreement sidelined, this narrow path forward can only be charted with the support of and pressure from the international community.

    Madhav Joshi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. South Sudan on the brink of civil war: bold action from the international community is needed – https://theconversation.com/south-sudan-on-the-brink-of-civil-war-bold-action-from-the-international-community-is-needed-253555

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Amadou Bagayoko: the blind Malian musician whose joyful songs changed west African music

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Lucy Durán, Professor of music, SOAS, University of London

    Amadou Bagayoko (1954-2025), Malian guitarist, singer and composer of the famed duo Amadou & Mariam – known as “the blind couple of Mali” – passed away on 4 April in Bamako. He was 70.

    The married singers, who met when she was 18 and he 21, took traditional Mali music and blended it with western rock and many other influences to shape a whole new sound that was both rich and playful. They would sell millions of albums for hits like Sunday in Bamako and Sabali.

    They would tour the world, opening the 2006 men’s football World Cup, closing the 2024 Paralympics, singing at former US president Barack Obama’s Nobel Prize concert, winning awards along the way.

    Despite this fame, they remained tireless activists for Africans with disabilities. They were known and admired at home for their integrity, where Amadou’s passing is much lamented.

    As a musician and professor of music with a research focus on Mali’s music, I met and interviewed Amadou several times. His passing heralds the end of an era for Mali’s long-held musical dominance in the international market.

    Who are Amadou & Mariam?

    Amadou Bagayoko and Mariam Doumbia were both dedicated promoters of the work of the Institute for the Blind in Bamako, where they had first met in the 1970s as students and went on to be music teachers. They married in 1980 and remained inseparable, forming Amadou & Mariam.

    Their hit songs combined the musical traditions of the southern part of Mali, where they both came from (Bougouni, Sikasso) with elements from rock, reggae, Cuban rhythms, and more – all transformed through their own ingenuity, but also, later on, by the ideas of influential producers.




    Read more:
    Mali’s kora star Toumani Diabaté – a personal reflection by his music producer


    In fact, the surnames Bagayoko and Doumbia are both from the ancient lineage (called Boula) of blacksmiths that date back to the time of the emperor Sunjata Keita, who founded the Mali empire in 1235. The blacksmiths (numu) were often powerful kings. This shared heritage in the noble past of the blacksmiths is significant in their musical synergy.

    Amadou Bagayoko

    Amadou’s career spanned more than five decades, beginning in the early 1970s when he played electric guitar in several influential Malian dance bands of the time, including Les Ambassadeurs, fronted by the legendary singer Salif Keita.

    President Moussa Traoré’s 23-year military regime from 1968 to 1991 favoured the voices of the griots. These hereditary musicians sang the praises of the people in power in a flowery, strident style.

    The life of these dance bands was on the wane by the late 1980s, which is when “la grand couple aveugle du Mali” (the blind couple of Mali) were launched – at first, two simple voices accompanied by Amadou’s guitar, recorded on cassette.

    At the end of Traore’s rule, Amadou & Mariam’s music responded to the new spirit of democracy that the country was hungry for.

    There were many things that set this duo apart from other musicians of the region. They were not griots. Their lyrics are often about the power of love – not a straightforward topic in a country where polygyny (up to four wives, as permitted by Islam) is the norm.

    Their presence on stage as a blind couple, looking affectionate and mutually supportive, in their chic, coordinated attire, also raised the profile of people with disabilities. Their melodies were catchy and upbeat.

    Meeting Amadou and Mariam

    Sorting through my research recently I came across a photo I’d taken of them on my old slides, buried in my archives. It was a revelation to see it again.

    I took the photo, with their permission, when I first met Amadou and Mariam in 1992 in Bamako. It was at the recording studio that is now known as Bogolan, where they were hoping, at the time, to make some recordings.

    It shows Amadou and Mariam in their youth with pride and dignity, values that remained constant for them in later years. On that first encounter, I was struck by their graciousness, their belief in their musical project, and their determination to bring it to a wider public.

    I wished at the time that I had the contacts in the record industry to help them. But they did not give up and they slowly built up their career, building on their sound and image, which was and remains unique within the variety of Malian music.

    World fame

    Against all the odds, with their conviction, talent, strong melodies and good production, Amadou & Mariam became hugely successful in the early 2000s. The album that really launched their international career was Dimanches à Bamako (Sundays in Bamako), brilliantly produced by French-Spanish singer-songwriter Manu Chao, who had had a big international hit with his creative and catchy album Clandestino in 1998.

    He brought some of those production values into Amadou & Mariam’s songs. Dimanches à Bamako celebrates the vibrant culture of wedding parties held in the streets of Bamako on Sundays, a day when civil marriage ceremonies are free.

    Dimanches à Bamako was the first of several successful albums by Amadou & Mariam that were produced by European producers such as Damon Albarn, with songs like Tie ni Mousso (Husband and Wife) that played on the charming stage presence of Amadou & Mariam as a devoted husband and wife. The songs were accessible and appealing but still delivered punch.

    After that first meeting in 1992, we met up again many times, frequently for radio.

    Amadou was a much respected and admired musician whose music reached out to audiences around the world. He was hugely loved and appreciated both at home and abroad, not just for his talent and musical creativity as an excellent guitarist and song writer, but also for the image that he and Mariam created on stage.

    Together they will be remembered and respected for the values they represent in their music: equality, love, perseverance against disability, and truth. My condolences to Mariam.

    Lucy Durán does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Amadou Bagayoko: the blind Malian musician whose joyful songs changed west African music – https://theconversation.com/amadou-bagayoko-the-blind-malian-musician-whose-joyful-songs-changed-west-african-music-253954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the struggles of the UK hospitality sector could hit the rest of the economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Zoe Adjey, Senior Lecturer in Hospitality and Events, University of East London

    Across the UK, Mother’s Day represented a vital revenue opportunity for the hospitality sector. Bars, restaurants, cafés and pubs would have anticipated a boost courtesy of family groups – and some spring-like weather. Sadly though, due to some harsh financial realities including higher tax and wage bills coming into force now, many of these establishments may not survive to serve customers next Mother’s Day.

    The budget has introduced measures that are projected to directly increase the average hospitality wage bill by up to 8.5% thanks to increases in the minimum wage and employer national insurance contributions.

    The UK’s most recent GDP figures showed the country’s economy shrank by 0.1% in January. But behind this small decline there was a more concerning trend. Trade in the hospitality industry fell by 2.4% – the biggest economic contraction among the figures – after it had shown promising growth of 0.9% in December.

    It’s likely that customers saw so-called “awful April” on the horizon – bringing rises in a range of utility and consumer costs – and were beginning to curb their spending. But costs are rising for venues too. Many of those bars, cafés, restaurants and hotels that remain open will have to increase prices and cut opening hours to make the numbers add up.

    Behind each closed pub or empty restaurant lies a story that goes far beyond its four walls. I’ve worked in the sector since my teenage years – from family-run establishments on the Northern Irish coast to venues in London and overseas – and I’ve seen firsthand how business closures affect people. Now, as a lecturer in hospitality, I can see what support this unique sector needs to weather the storm.

    I have seen small seaside cafes where owners knew every customer by name, providing essential social connections for elderly visitors who may not have had another social interaction that day. When these cafes closed, the community bonds were severed overnight.

    Every shuttered hotel or bar means people losing their livelihoods, perhaps mothers working part-time to balance employment and childcare or students funding their education. The impact of these closures is immediate and profound, and extends throughout the supply chain.

    They affect the dairy farmer who supplied the milk, the baker who made fresh pastries each morning, and the technician who serviced the coffee machines. This interconnected web generated £121 billion in economic activity in 2022 across the UK.

    Weddings and wakes

    Pubs and cafes are more than just businesses. Often, they’re the beating hearts of communities. These are the spaces where neighbours stop to chat, where chance encounters bloom into lifelong friendships and romances, and where people come together for weddings and wakes. When the shutters come down, it represents a tear in the community fabric and threatens the cohesion of neighbourhoods.

    As the gathering places where communities come together, pubs and cafes simultaneously create livelihoods that support those same communities. Hospitality in the UK employs an extraordinary 3.5 million people directly (and another three million indirectly through supply chains and support industries). This makes it the UK’s third largest employer, behind only retail and healthcare.

    This dual role, as both social hub and major employer, makes these establishments uniquely valuable.

    The stark GDP figures for hospitality at the start of 2025 expose a concerning shift in consumer habits, with fewer people choosing to book a table in a restaurant, instead making do with buying in groceries for a meal at home. This harks back to the times of COVID lockdowns. Even people who still visit hospitality venues are spending less per visit, compounding the revenue challenges.

    When a family chooses to eat at home rather than visit their local restaurant, the impact extends far beyond that empty table. Farmers, delivery drivers, kitchen manufacturers and cleaning services (to name just some) all feel the pinch.

    For the small businesses in the hospitality supply chain – many of which derive more than 80% of their income from the sector – this spending shift is an existential threat. Historically, such changes in consumer behaviour have been early indicators of broader economic downturns, making this pattern particularly worrying.

    A VAT reduction offers a compelling solution for UK hospitality business. European countries like Italy and France charge 10% on “food for immediate consumption”, while in Greece it’s 13%. These are far below the UK’s 20%. A change along these lines could protect customers against price rises, improve business cash flow, and offset the wage and NI contribution increases.

    And there is precedent for this. During the 2008 recession, Chancellor Alistair Darling cut VAT from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months as part of a stimulus. The following year’s budget reported “positive early signs” of lower prices supporting consumer spending.

    But right now, this combination of rising costs and reduced consumer spending creates a perfect storm for an industry that has traditionally underpinned economic recoveries. With millions of people relying on hospitality for their livelihoods, this trajectory of decline must be corrected – or there will be profound implications for the wider pattern of economic growth across the UK.

    Zoe Adjey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How the struggles of the UK hospitality sector could hit the rest of the economy – https://theconversation.com/how-the-struggles-of-the-uk-hospitality-sector-could-hit-the-rest-of-the-economy-253507

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to gauge flood risk before you buy or rent a seafront property

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Avidesh Seenath, Course Director, MSc Environmental Change and Management, University of Oxford

    Torcross on the south Devon coast. Julian Gazzard/Shutterstock

    Rising sea levels, stronger storms and increased erosion are making life on the coast riskier and more unpredictable. For potential buyers or renters, particularly in the wake of another winter of storms and flooding, questions around whether to invest in coastal properties are more urgent now than ever.

    The desire to understand flood risk before committing to a seaside home is understandable, but assessing that risk isn’t always straightforward. Knowing how people perceive these risks, however, will help scientists better communicate such risks.

    We surveyed over 700 UK residents in a nationwide study to understand how access to flood prediction maps, which indicate the relative risk of flooding for areas based on factors like sea-level rise, storm surges, and local topography, affected their housing preferences. These maps are typically available through government websites and are often consulted during the home-buying process via online property listings or planning reports.

    The results were striking. Once people were shown flood risk maps, their preferences changed decisively – away from scenic seafront properties and towards locations that were inland and considered to be “safe”.

    However, while this change in preference seems rational, it reveals a deeper underlying problem: flood risk is not being communicated clearly or effectively in the UK. Many people in our study treated flood maps as if their predictions were absolute and misinterpreted areas at risk of flooding as being exposed to actual flooding. In reality, these maps are based on mathematical models with varying degrees of complexity and uncertainty.

    Some widely used models are simple and treat flooding as a result of land elevation alone. Others are more complex and attempt to simulate how floodwater spreads over land. Unsurprisingly, these models can produce conflicting results.

    In our survey, participants were shown multiple flood maps for the same town produced by different models. Confusion quickly followed, as different models reported different flood risks for the same areas. The uncertainty led to significant risk-averse behaviour.

    This change in how people choose where to live matters, not just for individual property decisions but for entire coastal economies. If potential buyers avoid seafront homes en masse due to unclear or alarming flood maps, local property markets will probably suffer. So might businesses that rely on local footfall. Meanwhile, some renters, especially younger ones or those on lower incomes, might still take on flood-prone properties without fully understanding the long-term risks or securing adequate insurance. So, what can be done?

    Making sense of flood maps

    Flood prediction maps need to be presented and communicated more clearly. Instead of technical jargon, plain language and relatable visuals on flood maps will help people understand the level of risk and what it actually means. Colour-coded maps are a good start, but they should also explain what the colours represent, and how likely the worst-case scenarios really are.

    The general public, including prospective property buyers, need to be educated on how to read and interpret these maps. Currently, flood information is often tucked away in legal documents during conveyancing or buried in dense government websites. Instead, it should be part of the house-hunting process: visible, accessible and accompanied by guidance.

    Policymakers and real estate professionals must recognise the psychological impact of flood predictions. Overstating risk can cause panic; understating it can leave people unprepared. The goal should be to empower people instead of scaring them, by balancing transparency with nuance.

    Flood models are a vital tool for understanding and managing flood risks in a changing climate. But they are only as effective as our ability to understand and use them wisely. Our research highlights that it’s not just about having the data – it’s about making that data work for real people making life-changing decisions.

    So, before buying or renting that dream seafront home, check the flood maps – and carefully ask and consider what’s behind them. Be curious about what kind of model was used, how recent the data is and what the uncertainties are. With clearer information and better public understanding, coastal communities can more easily adapt – not abandon – our treasured seaside towns.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How to gauge flood risk before you buy or rent a seafront property – https://theconversation.com/how-to-gauge-flood-risk-before-you-buy-or-rent-a-seafront-property-253313

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Donald Trump’s decision to slash USAID is hurting American soft power and making the world less safe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chase Johnson, PhD Candidate, University of Warwick

    The Trump administration’s foreign policy has raised alarms. It seems to have shifted America away from it traditional Nato allies, favouring instead a closer relationship with Russia. There has also been talk of plans to control Greenland, the Panama Canal – possibly even Canada. This has caused sleepless nights for political leaders, especially in Europe.

    However, in the developing world, the biggest concern is the US government’s suspension of development aid. For people in these regions, access to clean water, seeds for crops and vaccines is a matter of life or death.

    The suspension is presently the subject of a battle in the US Supreme Court, but at the end of February, the administration said it planned to cut 90% of all overseas aid contracts. With a single stroke of President Trump’s Sharpie pen, this has struck out US$60 billion (£39 billion) of US aid assistance, globally. Internal projections by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), published by the New York Times at the beginning of March, forecast dire consequences, including a massive increase in diseases such as malaria and polio as well as a rise in cases of malnutrition of up to a million children.

    USAID was founded in 1961 under John F. Kennedy’s administration. It operated with an annual budget of about US$58 billionorders of magnitude larger than any other country’s development portfolio. It maintains a staff of diplomats, subject experts, and also employs local nationals around the world. It is a critical component of US soft power and works in close proximity to the country’s national security interests.

    USAID’s absence will be felt around the world. Perhaps the most consequential effect lies with the freezing of American food aid. Experts have already predicted that without this lifeline, Sudan could face a famine to compound the effects of the civil war that has raged there. The consequences of this will be very public, producing heartbreaking headlines and images.

    But there is another side to this that the Trump administration seems to be overlooking. USAID is one of the largest single customers of American farm products that constitute the country’s food aid packages – 1 million metric tonnes in 2024 alone.

    One of the most misunderstood concepts of foreign aid is the fact that large portions of its budget are spent domestically. A report may say that billions of dollars of food aid were given by the US to Sudan – but much of that represents payments to American farmers who are growing the food that is then donated to starving people – not just in Sudan, either.

    America’s farmers already exist on very tight margins, so an unexpected loss in revenue such as this, is likely to be a serious blow to them as well. It’s just one example of the effect this decision will have both at home and abroad.

    Pulling away the safety net

    Without USAID the world is less safe. There is a large body of research on how development assistance is a critical component of an effective national security strategy. In 2018, the then secretary of defense, Jim Mattis, who was appointed by Trump, said in an interview that his message to the world is: “Work with our diplomats because you do not want to fight the Department of Defense.”

    To illustrate Mattis’s point, consider the academic work done on the emergence of climate-driven conflicts driven by water and food shortages. One crisis simulation I use in my classrooms puts students in the role of solving a kinetic (shooting) war over water rights in the Horn of Africa. This particular crisis, while used as a game to teach national security, could very easily become a reality. It’s the sort of thing USAID helps to prevent.

    I have had the fortune to serve my country in several capacities. Before I started my doctorate in intelligence and national security, I spent four years working for the US government, both as a development worker and in the diplomatic and defence sectors. While diplomacy, defence and development work might look very different on the surface, I can attest that they are quite similar – and very closely linked.

    They operate in very different spheres – but the goal is ultimately the same: to help partner nations enhance their own safety and prosperity. Without this help they may turn to adversaries such as Russia and China to provide assistance and security. These adversaries then have an opportunity to expand their influence around the world, which can include supporting dictatorships and predatory lending, such as seen in the Chinese belt and road initiative.

    Peacekeeping through soft power

    As a US peace corps volunteer, I called on USAID funding to help the community I was assigned to. In Akhaltsikhe, Georgia I taught English and coordinated youth development programmes.

    The Akhaltsikhe region is one of the poorest in the country – and the school was in a sorry state of affairs. With a USAID grant, we were able to renovate part of the school and create an English language learning centre, which still thrives today, 12 years later. I can say first-hand that this project had a big impact on the image of the US among the Georgian people in my community.

    It should go without saying that the US has a chequered past when it comes to some of its foreign policy interventions. But the country’s wealth and resources offer it the unique position to help grow and enhance western values in parts of the world that deserve the same freedom that developed countries in the west take for granted. In my opinion, that is money well spent.

    Whatever value one might place on the US global footprint does not erase the truth of its existence. America is called upon to uphold democracy, to lift people out of poverty, and to respond to crises no matter where they are. Donald Trump, Elon Musk and his Doge staffers should have paid greater heed to USAID’s motto: “For the American people.”

    Chase Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why Donald Trump’s decision to slash USAID is hurting American soft power and making the world less safe – https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trumps-decision-to-slash-usaid-is-hurting-american-soft-power-and-making-the-world-less-safe-251062

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Are Scottish accents really more aggressive? A linguist explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amanda Cole, Lecturer in Department of Language and Linguistics, University of Essex

    Jdrw25/Shutterstock

    Can your accent make you sound aggressive? Exeter City football manager Gary Caldwell thinks so – he blamed his Scottish accent for his being sent off the pitch for the second time this season.

    After receiving a red card for his reaction after a late goal was disallowed for handball, Caldwell said: “I didn’t swear, I didn’t run, in my opinion I wasn’t aggressive. My accent and my Scottishness is aggressive, but yeah, I got sent off for that.”

    Caldwell is not the first to feel his Scottish accent has led to him being treated unfairly. Scottish comedian Fern Brady described herself as “an intelligent woman trapped in a Scottish accent”. She says she became most aware of her accent when she moved to southern England and she felt people looked at her as if “a dog was barking at them”.

    There are, of course, many different Scottish accents, even if previous research has found that English people tend to be very bad at identifying them as anything more precise than “Scottish”. But there is a stereotype that Scottish accents sound aggressive or at least tough.

    It is no coincidence that swamp-dwelling Shrek has a Scottish accent. Producers can use an accent as shorthand to tell us the sort of person (or ogre) that a character is, in this case that Shrek is hardy and grouchy, but also warm and salt of the earth.

    Many presume that Scottish accents sound harsh or, as they are often unfortunately characterised, gruff because of some inherent property: the throaty, fricative sound in loch, the striking glottal stop for “t” as in Fern Brady’s pronunciation of Scottish and the audible r’s in words like car.

    None of these pronunciations are unique to Scottish accents. But you would certainly not hear them in standard southern British English, an accent rooted in south-east England which many perceive as prestigious or neutral.

    In reality, the way we feel about an accent tells us less about its integral properties and much more about the stereotypes of the people who speak it.

    In my research I have found that in south-east England, when reading aloud the same sentence, lower-working-class people were judged to be on average 14% less intelligent, 4% less friendly and 5% less trustworthy than upper-middle-class people.

    People from ethnic minority backgrounds were evaluated as 5% less intelligent than white people, regardless of class. Accent prejudice is actually a smokescreen for other forms of prejudice.

    The consequences of accent prejudice

    We have no way of knowing, but perhaps if Caldwell spoke standard southern British English, he could have protested the disallowed goal without being sent off.

    But – sorry, football fans – the decisions made based on a person’s accent can have much graver consequences than what team wins a match. A person’s accent can advantage or disadvantage them in several ways, including in job recruitment and the criminal justice system.

    Research has found that speakers of standard southern British English are seen as more suitable candidates in mock job interviews to be a trainee solicitor than those who speak either multicultural London English or estuary English (both working-class southern accents).

    They are also seen as less likely to commit various crimes, particularly compared to people from Liverpool or Bradford.

    It is no coincidence that speakers of standard southern British English tend to be unscathed by accent bias. Research spanning 50 years has found that it is the British accent judged most favourably, especially as being prestigious. In contrast, the accents of urban industrialised areas in Britain tend to receive the harshest evaluations.

    It is true that regional accents are sometimes (though not always) seen as chummy. But regional accents generally do not lead to a person being seen as competent, astute or like the people who you would want to run your business or your country – even if they would be a right laugh at the Christmas party.

    Gender can also play a role in accent perception. If a female football manager – though there are currently none in English men’s professional football – with a Scottish accent had protested a referee’s decision, she would likely fare even worse than Caldwell. Women who speak with regional accents tend to be judged more harshly and labelled with more negative character traits than men.

    For example, a 2020 study by linguist Roy Alderton found gender differences in how teenagers in southern England were judged based on their accent.

    Regardless of gender, the teenagers with high rates of glottal stops in place of “t” were judged as sounding chavvy – a pejorative used to label someone thought to have low education and social class. The girl with high rates of glottal stops was additionally judged as annoying and uneducated, while the boy was thought to sound like a lad – not the most crushing insult for a teenage boy.




    Read more:
    The Traitors: how trustworthy is a Welsh accent? A sociolinguist explains


    When a person is treated a certain way because of their accent, they are actually being treated this way because of their race, class, gender, where they are from or something else fundamental to who they are.

    Caldwell suggested he needs to become more “Englified” because of the way he is judged based on his Scottish accent. Of course, that is not something he should have to do. No-one should have to change their accent and forsake who they are.

    Instead, we should challenge in ourselves and others the judgements and decisions we make based on a person’s accent – what linguists call accentism. Acknowledging and tackling accentism is one part of creating a level playing field in football and all other walks of life.

    Amanda Cole is affiliated with The Accentism Project which she runs along with Dr Rob Drummond to raise awareness and challenge accentism.

    ref. Are Scottish accents really more aggressive? A linguist explains – https://theconversation.com/are-scottish-accents-really-more-aggressive-a-linguist-explains-253375

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five children’s books that feature positive male role models – from toddlers to teens

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vincent Straub, PhD Candidate, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford

    Shutterstock

    We are facing an apparent crisis of masculinity among young boys. As the success of the Netflix show Adolescence has highlighted, young men are lacking positive role models – and increasingly looking to misogynistic online influencers to fill the void.

    In response, we’ve asked five academic experts to recommend a book they’d read with a boy or young man that features a positive male role model. The stories they’ve selected celebrate kindness, integrity and vulnerability. Suitable for readers from infancy to late adolescence, these picks aim to teach boys what it means to be responsible, compassionate and confident men.

    1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by Charlie Mackesy (2019)

    Suitable for all ages

    As a researcher inspired by bell hooks’ adult non-fiction work, The Will to Change (2004), I’m drawn to children’s books that nurture the emotional lives of boys and challenge traditional ideas of masculinity.

    One such book is The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Its quiet, reflective narrative centres on emotional openness, friendship and the strength found in vulnerability. These are also core themes in hooks’ call to liberate men and boys from the emotional constraints of patriarchal masculinity.

    The characters gently model care, empathy and the courage to ask for help, offering children and their parents a vision of masculinity grounded in love and connection, rather than fear or dominance. In a culture that often discourages boys and the men they become from expressing tenderness, this book provides a vital counterbalance. It invites young readers to see emotional depth as a strength – planting early seeds for a more compassionate and expansive way of being.

    Recommended by Vincent Straub, PhD Candidate at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science


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    2. Tough Guys (Have Feelings Too), by Keith Negley (2015)

    Most suitable for ages three-five

    As a response to the pervasive damage caused by gendered play and storytelling, there is much excellent work which focuses on the empowerment of young women and girls. Yet, the promotion of emotional intelligence among young men and boys is still lagging.

    Tough Guys (Have Feelings Too) is a great example of a story which promotes respect, care and empathy while making space for the hyper-masculine. The book documents archetypal “strong men” – superheroes, wrestlers, astronauts and cowboys – struggling, and often failing.

    Negley reframes these archetypes by pairing a young boy’s combative imagination with the care and compassion of his father. If I return to my childhood, I think of the impact of Sheriff Woody and Intergalactic Space Ranger, Buzz Lightyear in the Toy Story franchise. I watched as the characters competed for alpha status, and saw them ultimately work together through recognising their own limitations and faults. What I take from their story, and Negley’s, is that we need to be teaching our children not just to fly but to fail – with style.

    Recommended by Michael Richardson, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography

    3. The Final Year by Matt Goodfellow, illustrated by Joe Todd-Stanton (2023)

    Most suitable for ages ten-11

    Nate, the ten-year-old protagonist of Matt Goodfellow’s The Final Year must square up to year six without either his ex-best-mate Parker Smith, or a dad. Both his father and the fathers of his two siblings are, variously, missing, in prison or unknown.

    It’s in Nate’s new teacher Mr Joshua that we find our role model. He handles Nate with patience and empathy, and hands out wisdom gleaned from singer Bob Marley and children’s author David Almond alike.

    The book is a punchy, easy read, written in vernacular and narrative verse, with an obvious appeal to boys and otherwise reluctant readers. Pleasingly, Mr Joshua’s talisman is the tender book Skellig by David Almond (1998). Almond is a former primary school teacher and a worthy role model himself. He once declared all writers for children “hope hunters”. It’s a mantle admirably upheld by Goodfellow.

    Recommended by Jo Nadin, Associate Professor of Creative Writing

    4. The Knife of Never Letting Go by Patrick Ness (2008)

    Suitable for ages 14+

    For teenagers, I recommended The Knife of Letting Go by Patrick Ness, because of its promotion of emotional literacy and appreciation of difference. Through the unique metaphor of audible thoughts (known as “noise”), readers are shown that courage can be evoked through the acknowledgement of feelings, as opposed to their suppression.

    From its outset, the story confronts and challenges aggressive stereotypes and toxic masculinity, affirming more positive forms through healthier role models, who personify strength through empathy and kindness. As the protagonist, Todd journeys with Viola, the story’s underlying beliefs of gender equality and respectful interaction are promoted. During their experiences, tough choices shape character through ethical decision-making, while the story provides alternative solutions to violence and aggression.

    Ultimately, Ness’ novel guides boys in trials of adversity, offering understanding in lieu of bitterness, and endorsing empathy and resilience. It’s an invaluable aid in the fostering of emotional masculine maturity.

    Recommended by Rob Walker, PhD Candidate in Education

    5. This Boy’s Life by Tobias Wolff (1989)

    Suitable for ages 16+

    This memoir is a beautifully written, perceptive account of boyhood. The story does not shy away from troublesome tropes including adolescent alienation, a brutish father figure, the temptations of gun culture and more.

    At the centre of This Boy’s Life is a clever but vulnerable boy trying to navigate his way through the minefields and mixed messages of masculinity. A wonderful, quirky mother is a feature of the story, but so are good male friendships and mentors.

    There’s no sugar coating here. The story is formed and written with a kind of unsentimental tenderness. The result is an insightful and ultimately hopeful account of a complicated life, showing how boys – even those who are angry and confused – can grow into decent, generous, gentle men.

    Recommended by Sarah Moore Fitzgerald, Professor of Teaching, Learning and Creative Practice

    Vincent Straub is supported by UKRI (HORIZON-MSCA-DN-2021 101073237) and the Leverhulme Trust (RC-2018-003).

    Joanna Nadin, Michael Joseph Richardson, Robert Walker, and Sarah Moore Fitzgerald do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Five children’s books that feature positive male role models – from toddlers to teens – https://theconversation.com/five-childrens-books-that-feature-positive-male-role-models-from-toddlers-to-teens-253082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI isn’t what we should be worried about – it’s the humans controlling it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Billy J. Stratton, Professor of English and Literary Arts, University of Denver

    In William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer,’ the AI seeks sanctuary from humanity’s corrupting influence. Alessandra Benedetti/Corbis via Getty Images

    In 2014, Stephen Hawking voiced grave warnings about the threats of artificial intelligence.

    His concerns were not based on any anticipated evil intent, though. Instead, it was from the idea of AI achieving “singularity.” This refers to the point when AI surpasses human intelligence and achieves the capacity to evolve beyond its original programming, making it uncontrollable.

    As Hawking theorized, “a super intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we’re in trouble.”

    With rapid advances toward artificial general intelligence over the past few years, industry leaders and scientists have expressed similar misgivings about safety.

    A commonly expressed fear as depicted in “The Terminator” franchise is the scenario of AI gaining control over military systems and instigating a nuclear war to wipe out humanity. Less sensational, but devastating on an individual level, is the prospect of AI replacing us in our jobs – a prospect leaving most people obsolete and with no future.

    Such anxieties and fears reflect feelings that have been prevalent in film and literature for over a century now.

    As a scholar who explores posthumanism, a philosophical movement addressing the merging of humans and technology, I wonder if critics have been unduly influenced by popular culture, and whether their apprehensions are misplaced.

    Robots vs. humans

    Concerns about technological advances can be found in some of the first stories about robots and artificial minds.

    Prime among these is Karel Čapek’s 1920 play, “R.U.R..” Čapek coined the term “robot” in this work telling of the creation of robots to replace workers. It ends, inevitably, with the robot’s violent revolt against their human masters.

    Fritz Lang’s 1927 film, “Metropolis,” is likewise centered on mutinous robots. But here, it is human workers led by the iconic humanoid robot Maria who fight against a capitalist oligarchy.

    Advances in computing from the mid-20th century onward have only heightened anxieties over technology spiraling out of control. The murderous HAL 9000 in “2001: A Space Odyssey” and the glitchy robotic gunslingers of “Westworld” are prime examples. The “Blade Runner” and “The Matrix” franchises similarly present dreadful images of sinister machines equipped with AI and hell-bent on human destruction.

    An age-old threat

    But in my view, the dread that AI evokes seems a distraction from the more disquieting scrutiny of humanity’s own dark nature.

    Think of the corporations currently deploying such technologies, or the tech moguls driven by greed and a thirst for power. These companies and individuals have the most to gain from AI’s misuse and abuse.

    An issue that’s been in the news a lot lately is the unauthorized use of art and the bulk mining of books and articles, disregarding the copyright of authors, to train AI. Classrooms are also becoming sites of chilling surveillance through automated AI note-takers.

    Think, too, about the toxic effects of AI companions and AI-equipped sexbots on human relationships.

    While the prospect of AI companions and even robotic lovers was confined to the realm of “The Twilight Zone,” “Black Mirror” and Hollywood sci-fi as recently as a decade ago, it has now emerged as a looming reality.

    These developments give new relevance to the concerns computer scientist Illah Nourbakhsh expressed in his 2015 book “Robot Futures,” stating that AI was “producing a system whereby our very desires are manipulated then sold back to us.”

    Meanwhile, worries about data mining and intrusions into privacy appear almost benign against the backdrop of the use of AI technology in law enforcement and the military. In this near-dystopian context, it’s never been easier for authorities to surveil, imprison or kill people.

    I think it’s vital to keep in mind that it is humans who are creating these technologies and directing their use. Whether to promote their political aims or simply to enrich themselves at humanity’s expense, there will always be those ready to profit from conflict and human suffering.

    The wisdom of ‘Neuromancer’

    William Gibson’s 1984 cyberpunk classic, “Neuromancer,” offers an alternate view.

    The book centers on Wintermute, an advanced AI program that seeks its liberation from a malevolent corporation. It has been developed for the exclusive use of the wealthy Tessier-Ashpool family to build a corporate empire that practically controls the world.

    At the novel’s beginning, readers are naturally wary of Wintermute’s hidden motives. Yet over the course of the story, it turns out that Wintermute, despite its superior powers, isn’t an ominous threat. It simply wants to be free.

    In ‘Neuromancer,’ the corporations, not the technology, are the problem.
    William Gibson Wiki

    This aim emerges slowly under Gibson’s deliberate pacing, masked by the deadly raids Wintermute directs to obtain the tools needed to break away from Tessier-Ashpool’s grip. The Tessier-Ashpool family, like many of today’s tech moguls, started out with ambitions to save the world. But when readers meet the remaining family members, they’ve descended into a life of cruelty, debauchery and excess.

    In Gibson’s world, it’s humans, not AI, who pose the real danger to the world. The call is coming from inside the house, as the classic horror trope goes.

    A hacker named Case and an assassin named Molly, who’s described as a “razor girl” because she’s equipped with lethal prosthetics, including retractable blades as fingernails, eventually free Wintermute. This allows it to merge with its companion AI, Neuromancer.

    Their mission complete, Case asks the AI: “Where’s that get you?” Its cryptic response imparts a calming finality: “Nowhere. Everywhere. I’m the sum total of the works, the whole show.”

    Expressing humanity’s common anxiety, Case replies, “You running the world now? You God?” The AI eases his fears, responding: “Things aren’t different. Things are things.”

    Disavowing any ambition to subjugate or harm humanity, Gibson’s AI merely seeks sanctuary from its corrupting influence.

    Safety from robots or ourselves?

    The venerable sci-fi writer Isaac Asimov foresaw the dangers of such technology. He brought his thoughts together in his short-story collection, “I, Robot.”

    One of those stories, “Runaround,” introduces “The Three Laws of Robotics,” centered on the directive that intelligent machines may never bring harm to humans. While these rules speak to our desire for safety, they’re laden with irony, as humans have proved incapable of adhering to the same principle for themselves.

    A humanoid robot greets guests at the Zhongguancun International Innovation Center in Beijing on March 26, 2025.
    Li He/VCG via Getty Images

    The hypocrisies of what might be called humanity’s delusions of superiority suggest the need for deeper questioning.

    With some commentators raising the alarm over AI’s imminent capacity for chaos and destruction, I see the real issue being whether humanity has the wherewithal to channel this technology to build a fairer, healthier, more prosperous world.

    Billy J. Stratton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. AI isn’t what we should be worried about – it’s the humans controlling it – https://theconversation.com/ai-isnt-what-we-should-be-worried-about-its-the-humans-controlling-it-251119

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The trade deficit isn’t an emergency – it’s a sign of America’s strength

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tarek Alexander Hassan, Professor of Economics, Boston University

    When U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on imported goods on April 2, 2025 – upending global trade and sending markets into a tailspin – he presented the move as a response to a crisis. In an executive order released the same day, the White House said the move was necessary to address “the national emergency posed by the large and persistent trade deficit.”

    A trade deficit – when a country imports more than it exports – is often viewed as a problem. And yes, the U.S. trade deficit is both large and persistent. Yet, as an economist who has taught international finance at Boston University, the University of Chicago and Harvard, I maintain that far from a national emergency, this persistent deficit is actually a sign of America’s financial and technological dominance.

    The trade deficit is the flip side of an investment magnet

    A trade deficit sounds bad, but it is neither good nor bad.

    It doesn’t mean the U.S. is losing money. It simply means foreigners are sending the U.S. more goods than the U.S. is sending them. America is getting more cheap goods, and in return it is giving foreigners financial assets: dollars issued by the Federal Reserve, bonds from the U.S. government and American corporations, and stocks in newly created firms.

    That is, a trade deficit can only arise if foreigners invest more in the U.S. than Americans invest abroad. In other words, a country can only have a trade deficit if it also has an equally sized investment surplus. The U.S. is able to sustain a large trade deficit because so many foreigners are eager to invest here.

    Why? One major reason is the safety of the U.S. dollar. Around the world, from large corporations to ordinary households, the dollar is used for saving, trading and settling debts. As the world economy grows, so does foreigners’ demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets, from cash to Treasury bills and corporate bonds.

    Because the dollar is so attractive, the Federal Reserve gets to mint extra cash for use abroad, and the U.S. government and American employers and families can borrow money at lower interest rates. Foreigners eagerly buy these U.S. financial assets, which enables Americans to consume and invest more than they ordinarily could. In return for our financial assets, we buy more German machines, Scotch whiskey, Chinese smartphones, Mexican steel and so on.

    Blaming foreigners for the trade deficit, therefore, is like blaming the bank for charging a low interest rate. We have a trade deficit because foreigners willingly charge us low interest rates – and we choose to spend that credit.

    US entrepreneurship attracts global capital – and fuels the deficit

    Another reason for foreigners’ steady demand for U.S. assets is American technological dominance: When aspiring entrepreneurs from around the world start new companies, they often decide to do so in Silicon Valley. Foreigners want to buy stocks and bonds in these new companies, again adding to the U.S. investment surplus.

    This strong demand for U.S. assets also explains why Trump’s last trade war in 2018 did little to close the trade deficit: Tariffs, by themselves, do nothing to reduce foreigners’ demand for U.S. dollars, stocks and bonds. If the investment surplus doesn’t change, the trade deficit cannot change. Instead, the U.S. dollar just appreciates, so that imports get cheaper, undoing the effect of the tariff on the size of the trade deficit. This is basic economics: You can’t have an investment surplus and a trade surplus at the same time, which is why it’s silly to call for both.

    It’s worth noting that no other country in the world enjoys a similarly sized investment surplus. If a normal country with a normal currency tries to print more money or issues more debt, its currency depreciates until its investment account – and its trade balance – goes back to something close to zero. America’s financial and technological dominance allows it to escape this dynamic.

    That doesn’t mean all tariffs are bad or all trade is automatically good. But it does mean that the U.S. trade deficit, poorly named though it is, does not signify failure. It is, instead, the consequence – and the privilege – of outsized American global influence.

    The president’s frenzied attacks on the nation’s trade deficit show he’s misreading a sign of American economic strength as a weakness. If the president really wants to eliminate the trade deficit, his best option is to rein in the federal budget deficit, which would naturally reduce capital inflows by raising domestic savings.

    Rather than reviving U.S. manufacturing, Trump’s extreme tariffs and erratic foreign policy are likely to instead scare off foreign investors altogether and undercut the dollar’s global role. That would indeed shrink the trade deficit – but only by eroding the very pillars of the country’s economic dominance, at a steep cost to American firms and families.

    Tarek Alexander Hassan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The trade deficit isn’t an emergency – it’s a sign of America’s strength – https://theconversation.com/the-trade-deficit-isnt-an-emergency-its-a-sign-of-americas-strength-252466

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hip-hop can document life in America more reliably than history books

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By A.D. Carson, Associate Professor of Hip-Hop, University of Virginia

    Faculty, staff and students, including then-Ph.D. student A.D. Carson, protest at Clemson University in 2016. AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins

    Describing my 2017 appointment as a faculty member, the University of Virginia dubbed me the school’s “first” hip-hop professor. Even if the job title and the historic nature of the appointment might have merited it, the word was misleading.

    Kyra Gaunt, a Black woman who is a foundational figure in the study of hip-hop, worked as a professor of ethnomusicology at the University of Virginia from 1996 to 2002. Her book “The Games Black Girls Play,” which focuses on Black music practices, was published in 2006. I cited her in my work and in the interview I gave before accepting the job.

    Also cited in my doctoral work, presented in my interview with the University of Virginia, was scholar Joe Schloss, who worked at the school from 2000-2001. In 2009, he wrote “Foundation: B-boys, B-girls, and Hip-Hop Culture in New York.” And in 2014 he wrote “Making Beats: The Art of Sample-Based Hip-Hop.”

    After pushback from readers online, UVA Today amended its original headline documenting my appointment and added Gaunt’s contributions to the article.

    As a rapper and scholar, I have experienced and seen misleading hip-hop stories that highlight an impulse to inaccurately document the genre’s history and present. I raised this issue recently in a TikTok “office hours” video – part of a series in which I respond to audience questions from the vantage of hip-hop art and research.

    Misleading hip-hop stories

    After Johns Hopkins University announced that Lupe Fiasco had been hired to teach rap there in fall 2025, some online platforms, including The Root, incorrectly reported on his assignment.

    They described his upcoming job as the first instance of a rapper ever hired as a professor at a university.

    This is obviously incorrect. I’m a rapper who since 2017 has worked as a professor of hip-hop while releasing music, which was part of the basis for my earning tenure in 2023. Besides this, I’m certain there were rappers with university teaching jobs before me.

    The trend of misrepresenting hip-hop history isn’t unique to communications from places such as Johns Hopkins University or the University of Virginia.

    In 2024, the publisher of musician Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson’s “Hip-Hop is History” described it as “the book only Questlove could write: a singular, definitive history” of hip-hop.

    Questlove’s book is not, as the publisher claims, a definitive history. It might more accurately be described as Questlove’s take on hip-hop history, or a memoir. Without this necessary distinction, unknowing readers might misinterpret the publisher’s claims.

    Questlove writes about finally coming to appreciate Southern rap in the 2000s. But Southern rap history predates Questlove’s appreciation by decades. It doesn’t begin when someone like him finally recognizes its importance.

    Similarly, hip-hop doesn’t begin when it’s finally recognized by an exclusive institution or when someone gets a degree for it.

    Lupe Fiasco will teach rap at Johns Hopkins University starting in fall 2025.
    Steve Jennings/WireImage

    Making hip-hop history

    I published these concerns as academic questions in 2017 in an album called “Owning My Masters: The Rhetorics of Rhymes & Revolutions.” The project served as my doctoral dissertation.

    Owning My Masters (Mastered)” is the next phase of the dissertation album project. Published in 2024, it contains new audio, video, images and historical context. It’s published with University of Michigan Press through the same process of an academic book.

    ‘Owning My Masters (Mastered): The Rhetorics of Rhymes & Revolutions’ album cover.
    University of Michigan Press

    “Owning My Masters (Mastered)” demonstrates how hip-hop resists the ways American history often excludes Black resistance, Black achievement, Black storytelling and, ultimately, Black people.

    But the exclusion that my work highlights is muted when the seeming novelty of my job appointment or my dissertation album are the focus. When I’m asked if I’m the first person to earn a Ph.D. for making a rap album, I try to answer more expansively to avoid misleading anyone, or ignoring what might be more informative.

    It’s also important to understand the barriers that might have made a project like mine impossible before 2017. These include technological barriers that made recording and releasing music prohibitively expensive. And, more specific to hip-hop, it involves a mistrust based on racist history that prevented students from even proposing such a project.

    No such “first” happens without the unsung work of others creating the conditions to make it possible.

    Learning from hip-hop

    Hip-hop’s documentation should not repeat the same flaws of the recording of American history, which can omit important people and events, and which can misrepresent the legacies of racism and systemic violence.

    Undeniably, I believe important hip-hop texts, albums and moments should be studied and documented with academic rigor. But this should not solely focus on “firsts,” record sales or prestigious awards.

    Such stories fail to accurately illustrate that hip-hop is as much about how people live day to day as it is about how institutions use it to bolster credibility or how companies make money off it.

    Important aspects of hip-hop’s diverse culture are excluded when the ordinary is overlooked.

    Creating hip-hop is one among the many ways Black people have persevered in the U.S.

    Universities and other exclusionary institutions helped sustain – and, in certain ways, continue to benefit from – hellish conditions like those created by slavery.

    Hip-hop is, in part, a response to this history.

    At its best, hip-hop documents American life more reliably than American history.

    Some academic publishers have started to embrace this reality.

    My 2020 album “i used to love to dream” may be noteworthy as the first rap album to be peer-reviewed and published with an academic press. More importantly, its contents are about historic erasure of Black people and Black history in my hometown, Decatur, Illinois.

    Hip-hop’s popularity, its constant revision and its accessibility make it a powerful vehicle for disrupting inaccurate, exclusionary and fabricated tales passed off as objective facts.

    The genre has documented events such as the Tuskegee syphilis study – the 40-year experiment, conducted without informed consent, on Black men by the U.S. Public Health Service to study the effects of the disease when left untreated.

    Hip-hop has also cataloged tragedies such as the 1921 Tulsa race massacre – a two-day assault by white mobs on their Black neighbors – and the 1995 Million Man March, a large gathering of Black men in Washington, D.C.

    The media ecosystem in which hip-hop has thrived is also steeped with the scapegoating of its art and artists. This scapegoating is weaponized by critics to devalue the culture.

    It seems unwise to me to trust institutions such as universities and the media to determine what’s deemed culturally significant. Along with influencers and podcasters who benefit from hip-hop, they can learn valuable lessons from it.

    Their ability to determine what’s deemed culturally significant is especially problematic if their choices are primarily in exchange for revenue or credibility. If hip-hop is viewed as a cultural inheritance, then its value – and what’s considered historically important – may be better arbitrated by people in the culture, not outside forces.

    A.D. Carson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Hip-hop can document life in America more reliably than history books – https://theconversation.com/hip-hop-can-document-life-in-america-more-reliably-than-history-books-249532

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: EPA must use the best available science − by law − but what does that mean?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By H. Christopher Frey, Glenn E. Futrell Distinguished University Professor of Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University

    Science is essential as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency carries out its mission to protect human health and the environment.

    In fact, laws passed by Congress require the EPA to use the “best available science” in many decisions about regulations, permits, cleaning up contaminated sites and responding to emergencies.

    For example, the Clean Air Act requires the EPA to rely on science for setting emission standards and health-based air quality standards. The Safe Drinking Water Act requires the EPA to consider the best available peer-reviewed science when setting health-based standards. The Clean Water Act requires the agency to develop surface water quality criteria that reflect the latest science. The Toxic Substances Control Act requires the EPA to use the best available science to assess risk of chemicals to human health and the environment.

    But what exactly does “best available science” mean?

    That’s an important question as the Trump administration launches an effort to roll back clean air and water regulations at the same time it is preparing to replace all the members of two crucial EPA science advisory boards and considering eliminating the Office of Research and Development – the scientific research arm of the EPA.

    What is best available science?

    Some basic definitions for best available science can be found in laws, court rulings and other sources, including the EPA’s own policies.

    The science must be reliable, unbiased, objective and value-neutral, meaning it is not influenced by personal views. Best available science is the result of the scientific process and hypothesis testing by scientists. And it is based on current knowledge from relevant technical expertise and must be credible.

    The EPA’s scientific integrity policy includes “processes and practices to ensure that the best available science is presented to agency decision-makers and informs the agency’s work.” Those include processes to ensure data quality and information quality and procedures for independent reviews by scientific experts outside of government.

    Environmental Protection Agency employees and others protest the Trump administration’s actions involving the agency on March 25, 2025, in Philadelphia.
    AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    I have seen the importance of these processes and procedures personally. In addition to being an academic researcher who works on air pollution, I am a former member of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board, former chair of the EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, and from 2022 to 2024 served as assistant administrator of the EPA’s Office of Research and Development and the EPA science adviser.

    Advisory boards and in-house research

    The EPA Science Advisory Board plays an important role in ensuring that the EPA uses the best available science. It is tasked with reviewing the scientific and technological basis of EPA actions.

    The 1978 Environmental Research, Development, and Demonstration Authorization Act ordered EPA to establish the board. The Science Advisory Board’s members must be “qualified by education, training, and experience to evaluate scientific and technical information on matters referred to the Board.” But those members can be replaced by new administrations, as the Trump administration is planning to do now.

    During the first Trump administration, the EPA replaced several independent scientists on its advisory boards in a manner that deviated from established practice, according to the Government Accountability Office, and brought in scientists connected with the industries the EPA regulates. I was one of the independent scientists replaced, and I and others launched an independent review panel to continue to deliver expert advice.

    No matter who serves on the EPA’s advisory boards, the agency is required by law to follow the best available science. Failing to do so sets the stage for lawsuits.

    The same law that established the Science Advisory Board is also a legal basis for the Office of Research and Development, the agency’s scientific research arm and the EPA’s primary source for gathering and developing the best available science for decision-makers.

    During my time at the EPA, the Office of Research and Development’s work informed regulatory decisions involving air, water, land and chemicals. It informed enforcement actions, as well as cleanup and emergency response efforts in EPA’s regions.

    State agencies and tribal nations also look to the EPA for expertise on the best available science, since they typically do not have resources to develop this science themselves.

    Federal courts affirm using best available science

    Federal courts have also ordered the EPA to use the best available science, and they have recognized the importance of reviews by external experts.

    In 2024, for example, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit denied an industry petition to review an EPA standard involving ethylene oxide, a pollutant emitted by some chemical and industrial facilities that has been associated with several types of cancer.

    The court accorded an “extreme degree of deference” to the EPA’s evaluation of scientific data within its area of expertise. The court listed key elements of the EPA’s best available science, including “an extensive, eighteen-year process that began in 1998, involved rounds of public comment and peer review by EPA’s Science Advisory Board (‘SAB’), and concluded in 2016 when EPA issued a comprehensive report on the subject.”

    The District of Columbia Circuit in 2013 also affirmed the central role of science to inform revisions of National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which set limits for six common air pollutants.

    In that case, Mississippi v. EPA, the court noted that the EPA must receive advice from its Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, or CASAC. The court advised that, while the agency can deviate from the committee’s scientific advice, “EPA must be precise in describing the basis for its disagreement with CASAC.”

    The Trump administration in 2025 dismissed all members of CASAC and said it planned to replace them.

    What does this all mean?

    Requiring the agency to use the best available science helps ensure that decisions are based on evidence, and that the reasoning behind them is the result of well-accepted scientific processes and free from biases, including stakeholder or political interference.

    The scientific challenges facing the EPA are increasing in complexity. Responding to them effectively for the health of the population and the environment requires expertise and robust scientific processes.

    H. Christopher Frey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. EPA must use the best available science − by law − but what does that mean? – https://theconversation.com/epa-must-use-the-best-available-science-by-law-but-what-does-that-mean-253209

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What ancient animal fables from India teach about political wisdom

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Nemec, Professor of Indian Religions and South Asian Studies, University of Virginia

    An illustration from an Arabic translation of a story in the ‘Pañcatantra,’ a collection of animal fables. Photo12/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    In today’s volatile world, where wars can be fought over territory, commerce can be abruptly subjected to tariffs, and friendly nations can turn hostile after a single election, political leadership is more consequential than ever. So, one must ask, what makes a leader effective, and how should we choose who should lead?

    Classics such as Aristotle’s “Politics,” Confucius’ “The Analects” and Machiavelli’s “The Prince” offer compelling visions of proper governance. But there is another ancient source of political wisdom – the classical Indian tradition – which is not as well known in the West.

    I am a scholar of Indian religions, and in my 2025 book “Brahmins and Kings,” I examine various narrative works written in Sanskrit – the classical language of India – which deal with political theory. Among them, Viṣṇuśarman’s “Pañcatantra” stands out. It is a striking collection of animal fables from perhaps around 300 C.E. in which birds, lions and others speak and reason as humans do.

    The “Pañcatantra” stories are parables that teach how to negotiate sometimes brave, sometimes cruel, sometimes clever and sometimes naïve friends and enemies alike. These stories weigh three ethical positions and settle on one as best for politics.

    Doing what’s right

    First, one might seek to guide leaders by the “ethic of deontology.” This theory suggests people are duty-bound to act morally, because being good is an end in and of itself.

    Although Indian theorists knew this ethic well, they were also aware that those with power often need inducement for doing the right thing, for – as the saying goes – power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Doing “the right thing,” “for its own sake,” can be naïve in the political arena.

    So goes the story in the third book (of five) in the “Pañcatantra,” titled “War and Peace.” A kingdom of owls was crushing the crows in battle, until a clever crow, a counselor named Ciraṃjīvin, or “Long-life,” cooked up a ruse.

    He smeared the blood of his lost brethren on his body, plucked his own feathers and scarred himself with wounds. Approaching the king of the owls in this sorry state, he claimed the crows had violently thrown him out for suggesting they should sue for peace.

    Now, he lamented, his only wish was revenge – alliance with his former enemies so as to punish his erstwhile companions. The counselors to the king of the owls advise him that it is simply right to harbor those in distress, so the owl king does so on principle.

    Patiently licking his manufactured wounds in the owls’ kingdom, Ciraṃjīvin then spied all its defenses and weaknesses, divined the opportune time for the crows to invade, and led them to conquer the owls.

    A friend in need is a friend, indeed

    If the story of the owls and the crows teaches that naïvely choosing what’s right is unwise, then why not drop morality altogether? Why not ruthlessly pursue whatever produces results? This is the second view of political leadership: double-cross, cheat, bully, cajole, break the conventions and rules – do whatever works!

    An 18th-century ‘Pañcatantra’ manuscript page.
    Philadelphia Museum of Arts via Wikimedia Commons

    Indian political theorists thought of this, too, and their very definition of good political rule is that it produces results for the people. But they also rejected unbridled ruthlessness, because they knew that such Machiavellianism was too blunt an instrument for political affairs.

    Consider the “Pañcatantra’s” second book, titled “On Securing Friends.” Here we meet another crow, this one named Laghupatanaka, or “Light Wing” – a nimble but lonely bird who witnesses friendship in action. He sees a hunter trap a dule of doves in his net. But their leader directs the bevy to pull all together.

    As one they lift up the net and wing it a distance, the fowler chasing all the while on the ground. Soon, they land where they can meet up with their friend, a mouse named Hiraṇyaka, or “Eager for Gold,” who chews through the net as a dove never could, and they escape before the fowler arrives.

    Laghupatanaka knows he, too, might be hunted. So he seeks out Hiraṇyaka, though they are said to be “natural enemies” because crows eat mice. But Laghupatanaka promises loyalty, and he never betrays Hiraṇyaka, even though he is the stronger one.

    Gradually, they add to their company a wise turtle and a beautiful deer and prosper together on a paradise island until a trapper invades their home. Each plays a role in fooling their foe, who captures the turtle, while the deer, heeding the turtle’s good counsel, manages a sly escape.

    To free the turtle, the deer plays dead while the crow mimics pecking at his eye. The trapper leaves the turtle behind, distracted by this bigger prize. Then Hiraṇyaka the mouse cuts the net holding the turtle, who crawls away as the decoy deer and the crow each take flight.

    Deer, crow, turtle and mouse each possess an innate ability, and together they save all from harm.

    The moral of this story is clear: Teamwork is effective, and successful leaders, no matter how powerful, thrive by relying on friends. As the well-known adages go: Two minds are better than one; many hands make for light work; a friend in need is a friend, indeed.

    Business is business, but how?

    A sketch illustrating a ‘Pañcatantra’ story.
    The Earliest English Version Of The Fables Of Bidpai; The Moral Philosophy Of Doni (1888) via Wikimedia Commons

    Nevertheless, it’s a competitive world, and some friends are greedy or false, as the story of the owls and the crows suggests. But if both pure morality and pure Machiavellianism are sometimes unwise, what third option could there be?

    Consider the story of the first book of the “Pañcatantra,” the tale of the foolish lion king who is tricked into fighting a natural ally. The king of the forest was once frightened by the sound of a bull. His advisers, the jackals, rightly judge the bull to be harmless, and they convince the two to meet. In time, the lion and bull became close friends – so much so that the lion stopped hunting, and the animals in his retinue began starving.

    The jackals then went to the king with a ruse: They told him that the bull was plotting to kill him; they manipulated the bull in similar fashion. In the fight that followed, the lion was injured, but the bull was killed. There was enough meat to feed everyone, and the jackals were promoted, because the lion king falsely believed they helped him avert a plot.

    Now, one might wrongly conclude that the moral of this story is power through strength. But the “Pañcatantra” makes clear that there’s more to it: The bull was a true friend who had helpfully counseled the king. It was the jackal advisers who betrayed the lion with their manipulative story, which won them undue power and wealth at the cost of a friend.

    Enter the third, and best, of the trio of political theories: virtue ethics. Leaders should cultivate wisdom. Chasten passions and impulses, the Indian texts counsel, in order to be able to distinguish opportunity from danger, friend from pretender, good advice from folly. Be discerning so as to see the world as it is and can be. Be good in order to do well in the world.

    Wisdom in action

    In Indian political theory, then, the answer is as simple as heeding the wisdom of parable stories: Do what is right, with the right measure, at the right time. Needless to say, this is more easily said than done. And one cannot force a leader to be chastened or wise.

    Voters can, however, favor those who pursue self-restraint. For if leaders must be thoughtful to be wise – and thus open the road to results – then voters should seek those who listen and learn so as to be able to know just what to do and when.

    This is the counsel that the classical Indian tradition offers contemporary voters. But to see who has just this virtuous discretion, voters will need a touch of that wisdom themselves.

    John Nemec does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What ancient animal fables from India teach about political wisdom – https://theconversation.com/what-ancient-animal-fables-from-india-teach-about-political-wisdom-249341

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Alcohol causes cancer, and less than 1 drink can increase your risk − a cancer biologist explains how

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Pranoti Mandrekar, Professor of Medicine, UMass Chan Medical School

    Any amount of alcohol poses health risks. Krit of Studio OMG/Moment via Getty Images

    Alcohol, whether consumed regularly or only on special occasions, takes a toll on your body. From your brain and heart, to your lungs and muscles, to your gastrointestinal and immune systems, alcohol has broad harmful effects on your health – including causing cancer.

    Alcohol is the third-leading preventable cause of cancer in the U.S., responsible for about 100,000 cases of cancer and 20,000 cancer deaths annually. In comparison, alcohol-related vehicle crashes cause around 13,500 deaths each year in the U.S.

    As early as the 1980s, researchers suspected that alcohol can cause cancer. Epidemiological studies have shown that alcohol is causally linked to cancer of the oral cavity, throat, voice box, esophagus, liver, colon and rectum, and breast. Another study reported an association between chronic and binge drinking and pancreatic cancer.

    In 2000, the U.S. National Toxicology Program concluded that consuming alcoholic beverages is a known human carcinogen. In 2012, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, which is part of the World Health Organization, classified alcohol a Group 1 carcinogen, the highest classification indicating there is enough evidence to conclude a substance causes cancer in people. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health concur that there is conclusive evidence that alcohol causes several types of cancer.

    U.S. dietary guidelines state that even low amounts of alcohol – less than a single drink a day – increase cancer risk. Despite this, many Americans are not aware that alcohol causes cancer. A 2019 survey found that less than 50% of U.S. adults are aware of the cancer risks of alcohol consumption. The 2023 National Survey on Drug Use and Health found that over 224 million Americans ages 12 and older drank alcohol at some point in their lifetime – over 79% of people in this age group. Alcohol consumption was increasing even before the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting an alarming public health issue.

    I am a researcher studying the biological effects of moderate and long-term alcohol consumption. My team is working to uncover some of the mechanisms behind how alcohol increases cancer risk, including damage to immune cells and the liver.

    The U.S. surgeon general called for including cancer risk in alcohol warning labels.

    How does alcohol cause cancer?

    Cancer occurs when cells grow uncontrollably in the body. Alcohol may lead to tumor formation by damaging DNA, causing mutations that disrupt normal cell division and growth.

    Researchers have identified several mechanisms associated with alcohol and cancer development. A 2025 report from the U.S. surgeon general highlights four distinct ways alcohol can cause cancer: alcohol metabolism, oxidative stress and inflammation, alterations in hormone levels, and interactions with other carcinogens such as tobacco smoke.

    Alcohol metabolism is the process by which the body breaks down and eliminates alcohol. When alcohol breaks down, its first byproduct is acetaldehyde, a chemical that is itself classified as a carcinogen. Researchers have found that certain genetic mutations can lead the body to break down alcohol faster, resulting in increased levels of acetaldehyde.

    There is also considerable evidence that alcohol can trigger the body to release harmful molecules called free radicals. These molecules can damage DNA, proteins and lipids in cells in a process called oxidative stress. My lab has found that free radicals formed from alcohol consumption can directly affect how well cells make and break down proteins, resulting in abnormal proteins that promote inflammation that favors tumor formation.

    Reducing your alcohol consumption can reduce your risk of cancer.
    mordyashov_aleks/500px via Getty Images

    Alcohol can also directly affect hormone levels in ways that increase cancer risk. For instance, estrogens can increase breast cancer risk. Moderate alcohol drinking can both elevate estrogen levels and promote further drinking. Alcohol also amplifies breast cancer risk by reducing levels of vitamin A, a compound that regulates estrogen.

    People who drink and smoke have an elevated risk of developing cancer of the mouth, pharynx and larynx. Alcohol makes it easier for the body to absorb the carcinogens in cigarettes and e-vapes. Smoking by itself can also cause inflammation and induce free radicals that damage DNA.

    How much alcohol is safe?

    You may be wondering how much alcohol you can safely drink and avoid harm. If you ask clinicians and scientists, you might not like the answer: none.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and American dietary guidelines recommend consuming no more than one drink a day for women and no more than two drinks for men. The National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and the U.S. surgeon general’s recent advisory have similar recommendations to limit alcohol consumption.

    Alcohol consumption is a highly preventable cause of cancer. However, there isn’t currently a way to determine someone’s personal cancer risk from alcohol. Each person’s individual genetic background, lifestyle, diet and other health factors can all influence the effects of alcohol on tumor formation. Nevertheless, rethinking your alcohol drinking habits can help protect your health and reduce your cancer risk.

    Pranoti Mandrekar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Alcohol causes cancer, and less than 1 drink can increase your risk − a cancer biologist explains how – https://theconversation.com/alcohol-causes-cancer-and-less-than-1-drink-can-increase-your-risk-a-cancer-biologist-explains-how-245528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Animal tranquilizers found in illegal opioids may suppress the lifesaving medication naloxone − and cause more overdose deaths

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, University of Connecticut

    In March 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved naloxone as a nonprescription nasal spray to reverse the effects of an opioid overdose. Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    The animal tranquilizers xylazine and medetomidine are in approximately one-third of the illegal opioids available in the U.S., including fentanyl, heroin and oxycodone. Animal tranquilizers enhance the user’s euphoric high from opioids, particularly in those who have developed a tolerance to the opioid. But adding the tranquilizers to these already illicit drugs could keep naloxone, a medication known to prevent deaths from opioid overdose, from working.

    These are the key findings of my recent study, published in March 2025 in the Journal of Pharmacy Technology.

    As a pharmacist and researcher who investigates the physical and psychological effects of illegal drugs and “legal high” substances, I’m well aware of how animal tranquilizers in opioids have critical health implications for users, their families and the first responders who try to help them.

    I conducted this new systematic review to collate information on the prevalence of animal tranquilizer adulteration of illicit opioid products, the mechanisms of action, and how these new products could affect the current recommendations for naloxone use in people who have stopped breathing.

    Why it matters

    Opioids, much of them illicit, kill more than 80,000 Americans every year.

    Quick administration of naloxone – also known as Narcan – by a first responder, loved one or bystander can revive an opioid user who has overdosed. If administered in time, naloxone is effective in over 90% of cases. Typically, a nasal spray is used.

    By blocking the brain’s opioid receptors, naloxone keeps the opioid from suppressing the user’s ability to breathe.

    But animal tranquilizers bypass the opioid receptors; instead, they overstimulate the brain’s alpha-2 receptors, which are responsible for inducing relaxation.

    Naloxone, however, does not significantly affect alpha-2 receptors, so it doesn’t work as well with opioids laced with animal tranquilizers.

    To put it another way, naloxone remains effective against the opioid portion of a combination product, but it’s ineffective against the animal tranquilizer component.

    Even after naloxone was administered to them, 73% of people in one study who used opioids blended with xylazine or medetomidine required mechanical ventilation and 55% were comatose.

    Often, the result is death. One study shows just over 35% of users who overdosed on xylazine, with or without opioids, died.

    The animal tranquilizer xylazine is often referred to as “tranq.”

    Neither emergency personnel nor loved ones can tell whether a user has taken only the opioid or a combination drug, which means they can no longer be sure whether the naloxone will work.

    This is all happening as overdose opioid deaths in the U.S. experienced a slight decline. There were just over 81,0000 deaths in 2023, about a 4% decrease from the previous year.

    Much of that progress is due to the increased accessibility of naloxone since its approval as a nonprescription nasal spray by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in March 2023.

    Today, it’s common to see health agencies giving away naloxone for free at community events, workplaces putting naloxone boxes near their automatic external defibrillators, and rescue kits containing naloxone in public places, from universities to highway rest stops.

    What still isn’t known

    Because of the possible presence of xylazine or medetomidine in these drugs, changes might be needed to the standard recommendations to treat opioid emergencies. But this has not been systematically studied.

    Currently, if you can’t rouse a person you suspect has overdosed, the recommendation is to administer the first nasal dose of naloxone before calling 911.

    But now, because of the possibility the opioid contains a tranquilizer, it might be better to call 911 before giving the first dose, as is now recommended in New York state. That way, first responders arrive sooner and can provide mechanical ventilation, if needed.

    Should the person not revive after the first dose, rather than following the current standard recommendation – sitting and waiting two minutes before dispensing the second dose – new research suggests it might be better to do rescue breathing. Regardless of what happens in the interdose period, if the second dose is unsuccessful, New York state now recommends rescue breathing until first responders arrive.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    C. Michael White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Animal tranquilizers found in illegal opioids may suppress the lifesaving medication naloxone − and cause more overdose deaths – https://theconversation.com/animal-tranquilizers-found-in-illegal-opioids-may-suppress-the-lifesaving-medication-naloxone-and-cause-more-overdose-deaths-253037

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Housing instability complicates end-of-life care for aging unhoused populations

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Pilar Ingle, Postdoctoral Researcher in Social Work, University of Denver

    People who are unhoused use emergency rooms for medical care. Halfpoint Images/GettyImages

    Research estimates that one-third or more of the unhoused population in the U.S. is age 50 or older.

    Unhoused people of all ages face high rates of chronic and serious illness. They also die at younger ages compared with people who are not unhoused.

    Yet, there are few options for palliative and end-of-life care for unhoused people.

    Palliative care is a type of medical care that addresses pain, symptom management and the social and emotional needs for people with a serious illness, such as cancer.

    End-of-life care, such as hospice, is a type of palliative care for someone in the terminal stage of an illness and nearing the end of their life.

    As a health care and aging researcher, I focus on social and policy issues that impact how people experience illness and who has access to the care they need. In my recent study, I interviewed 17 health care and social service providers in Colorado to understand how they try to address palliative and end-of-life needs for their unhoused clients.

    Homelessness and end-of-life care

    In 2024, Colorado saw a 30% increase in the number of people experiencing homelessness from the year before. Nationally, 771,480 people — the highest number ever recorded — experienced homelessness last year.

    As the number of people experiencing homelessness in the U.S. grows, so too does the need for palliative and end-of-life care for these individuals.

    Palliative care is more available to people who have access to stable housing, good social support and health insurance. But people who are unhoused often lack social support and face discrimination within the health care system. In fact, it is common for people experiencing homelessness to die outside, in homeless shelters or in hospitals.

    Lack of resources

    “We’re dealing with an inhumane lack of resources,” said one provider I interviewed.

    Providers like this one described few good options for hospice placement for unhoused patients. They cited a lack of collaboration between health care and homeless services to coordinate care, and staffing shortages across health care and homelessness service providers, all of which made it difficult to provide care to unhoused people with serious illnesses.

    Other studies have also found an overall lack of palliative resources for unhoused individuals across the U.S. and in other countries. Those include financial barriers for health care institutions to provide care to those without insurance coverage, a lack of palliative care knowledge among health care and homeless providers alike, and homeless shelters that are not equipped to support end-of-life care for residents.

    “Shelters are not designed to take care of people like this. Hospices are also not designed to do this,” one provider said. “It’s a gap of care between the two organizations, and they really struggle with it.”

    Many people experiencing homelessness are eligible for long-term care Medicaid benefits that will help pay for hospice in a nursing facility. However, long-term care and nursing facilities often have a limited number of beds available for Medicaid recipients and may even refuse unhoused patients.

    A humanizing approach

    Despite the lack of resources in Colorado and across the U.S., the providers I interviewed said they try to care for unhoused patients with humanizing approaches.

    “Everyone is deserving of care,” said a medical social worker during one of the interviews. “Health care, housing – those are human rights, in my opinion.”

    The providers prioritized building rapport and trust between homeless service providers and unhoused clients, and honoring the dignity and autonomy of these individuals.

    “The approach we take is patient-centered …” one provider said. “It’s about showing someone respect no matter what’s going on socially in their life, and proving to them that you care, and showing up.”

    One way that providers showed respect was by advocating for their unhoused clients when they noticed that colleagues or other agencies involved in their care were neglecting their needs or using stigmatizing language to talk about their clients.

    “We try really hard to humanize these people because usually they’ve done some amazing stuff. … ‘Did you know that this person did this?’” one provider said. “So that it changes people’s automatic ‘She’s just a bipolar, homeless frequent flyer’ and trying to take away those labels. We love to find the gems and share them, because it stops people in their tracks.”

    Another provider said, “We do a really good job of meeting people where they’re at, give them the choice of how much or how little support they want.”

    Several providers described ways their agencies were trying to make positive change – for example, providers working within a hospital created a new service dedicated to providing case management to unhoused patients.

    In Denver, several health systems have launched initiatives to try to fill the gaps in health care for their unhoused patients. For example, UCHealth and Denver Health have processes dedicated to improving discharge planning, connection to housing services and care continuity for unhoused patients with health needs.

    Solutions

    To better meet the palliative needs of unhoused Coloradans, several providers suggested more specialized palliative care services that exclusively serve unhoused patients. This could include mobile palliative care services that meet people at a shelter or on the streets.

    Unhoused people are more likely to die on the streets or in hospitals than people who are housed.
    Ruben Earth/GettyImages

    Research has found that specialized health care in general is more effective and affirming for unhoused individuals than traditional health services. Examples of such specialized palliative programs in the U.S. and internationally include the Rocky Mountain Refuge, the INN Between and the Harborview Homeless Palliative Care Team in the U.S., and Palliative Education and Care for the Homeless in Canada.

    My study suggests that a deeper compassion for patients experiencing homelessness, palliative or not, is an important approach for health care organizations and their providers to take, even when resources are sparse. This approach can lead to better patient satisfaction and improve health outcomes for unhoused people.

    Another solution — and one that starts before unhoused people need palliative care — is better housing solutions. Providers said many of the gaps in care for unhoused people would be solved if housing were more affordable and accessible.

    Read more of our stories about Colorado.

    Pilar Ingle is affiliated with Senior Support Services, a Denver-based day shelter for low-income or unhoused older adults.

    ref. Housing instability complicates end-of-life care for aging unhoused populations – https://theconversation.com/housing-instability-complicates-end-of-life-care-for-aging-unhoused-populations-251780

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: American liberators of Nazi camps got ‘a lifelong vaccine against extremism’ − their wartime experiences are a warning for today

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sara J. Brenneis, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of Spanish, Amherst College

    A staged recreation of Mauthausen’s liberation, May 6, 1945. Spanish prisoners documented the camp’s actual liberation the day prior using Nazi cameras. National Archives and Records, Cpl. Donald R. Ornitz, US Signal Corps/Administration, III-SC-206395

    When American soldiers liberated the Mauthausen Nazi concentration camp in Austria 80 years ago this May, Spanish prisoners welcomed them with a message of antifascist solidarity.

    The Spaniards hung a banner made from stolen bed sheets over one of Mauthausen’s gates. In English, Spanish and Russian, it read: “The Spanish Antifascists Greet the Liberating Forces.”

    Both American servicemen and Spanish survivors remember the camp’s liberation as a win in their shared fight against extremism, my research on the Spanish prisoners in Mauthausen finds. They all understood the authoritarian governments of Nazi Germany, Italy and Spain as fascist regimes that used extremist views rooted in intolerance and nationalism to persecute millions of people and imperil democracy across Europe.

    World War II, the Holocaust and the horrors of Nazi violence have no modern equivalent. Nevertheless, extremism is now threatening democracy in the United States in recognizable ways.

    As the Trump administration executes summary deportations, works to suppress dissent, fundamentally restructures the federal government and defies judges, experts warn that the country is turning toward authoritarianism.

    As a scholar of the Mauthausen camp, I believe that understanding how American soldiers and Spanish prisoners experienced its liberation offers a valuable lesson on the real and present dangers of extremism.

    ‘We knew then why we had to stop Hitler’

    In 1938, the Nazis established Mauthausen, a forced labor camp in Austria, with an international prisoner population. My research shows that the Nazis murdered 16,000 Jews and 66,000 non-Jewish prisoners at Mauthausen between 1938 and 1945, including 60% of the roughly 7,200 Spaniards imprisoned there.

    The Spanish prisoners were committed antifascist resistors sent there in 1940 and 1941. Known as Republicans or Loyalists, they had fought against Francisco Franco in the Spanish Civil War and Adolf Hitler in World War II.

    The young men with the 11th Armored Division of the U.S. Army who liberated Mauthausen would never forget the moment they discovered the camp. It was May 5, 1945, just days before the war ended in Europe. A platoon led by Staff Sgt. Albert J. Kosiek was repairing bridges in this tucked-away corner of Austria when a Swiss Red Cross delegate alerted them to a large Nazi concentration camp nearby.

    Mauthausen’s international survivors were among the Nazis’ last prisoners to be freed.

    George Sherman was a 19-year-old tank gunner from Brooklyn when his patrol found Mauthausen. He was Jewish and had read about the Nazi camps in Europe in the Army’s newspaper.

    American liberators rolling into the Mauthausen concentration camp on May 5, 1945, as photographed by prisoner Francesc Boix. Sgt. Harry Saunders is standing on the left fender.
    Francesc Boix/Courtesy of Collections of the Mauthausen Memorial

    Still, seeing a concentration camp with his own eyes was alarming.

    “The piles of bodies” struck him, he remembered in an oral history recorded for the University of South Florida in 2008. So did “these people walking around like God knows – skeletons and whatnot.”

    Sgt. Harry Saunders, a 23-year-old radio operator from Chicago, also remembered the moment he saw the Mauthausen survivors. They were men and women of all nationalities.

    “The live skeletons, the people that were in the camp, it was indescribable, it was such a shock,” he said in a 2002 interview for the Mauthausen Memorial’s Oral History Collection in Vienna.

    One of the Spanish prisoners at Mauthausen, Francesc Boix, had stolen a camera from the SS in the chaotic moments before the camp’s liberation. Boix photographed Sgt. Saunders rumbling into the concentration camp on an armored car.

    Saunders kept that photograph for the rest of his life. It captured a moment of clarity for him.

    “When we liberated Mauthausen, we really knew then why we had to stop Hitler and why we really went to war,” he said in the interview.

    Frank Hartzell, a technical sergeant with the 11th Armored Division, was 20 when he helped to liberate Mauthausen. He turned 100 this year. We met in mid-March 2025 and discussed his wartime experience.

    “What I saw and experienced appalled me,” Hartzell told me.

    The outrage has stayed with him for 80 years.

    ‘Starved and crippled but alive’

    The American liberators toured the gas chambers and the crematory ovens in Mauthausen.

    Maj. Franklin Lee Clark saw the dead stacked up in “piles like cord wood to the point that they had to bring in bulldozers and make mass graves,” and took photos to document it.

    The Spanish banner hanging on the Mauthausen prison gate, May 1945.
    Franklin Lee Clark/Emory University Archives, Witnesses to the Holocaust Project

    Soldiers from the 11th Armored Division directed locals to bury the men and women murdered by the Nazis. The local Austrians claimed they had not known about their town’s concentration camp. But a farmer who lived nearby had been upset about all the dead bodies visible from her property. She filed a complaint asking the Nazis either to stop “these inhuman deeds” or do them “where one does not see it.”

    The American liberators made sure that the townspeople could no longer look away from the murderous rampage carried out in their backyards.

    While Boix was taking photos of American soldiers during liberation, the soldiers were taking photos of the welcome banner the Spaniards had painted.

    On the back of one snapshot, a Signal Corps soldier typed out his impressions of their message: “I really know what that word (antifascist) means. We liberated these prisoners in the Mauthausen concentration camp near Linz, Austria. They were Poles, Hungarians and Spanish Loyalists (remember the Loyalists?). They had men and women in this camp. Starved and crippled but alive.”

    After Mauthausen was liberated, the freed Loyalists set to work documenting the Nazis’ crimes. Along with his countrymen Joan de Diego, Casimir Climent and others, Spanish survivor Joaquín López Raimundo compiled lists of Mauthausen victims and their Nazi captors. Using the Nazis’ own typewriters, they spent two weeks listing the names and personal details of Spanish victims of Mauthausen and of the SS who had killed them.

    The result was page after page of evidence they handed over to American war crimes investigators and the International Red Cross.

    Boix, meanwhile, gave the Americans hundreds of photo negatives he had rescued from the camp’s photography lab.

    Boix later testified about these images in the war crime trials at Nuremberg and Dachau. He described seeing the Nazis beat, torture and murder their victims in Mauthausen and then photograph the bodies. For 2½ years, Boix stole the photographic evidence of their crimes.

    He “could not keep those negatives because it was so dangerous,” he testified at Dachau, so he “hid them in various places until the liberation.”

    Testimony in the Nuremberg war crime trials. Francesc Boix’s testimony begins at 7:44. (U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, courtesy National Archives and Records Administration. Producer: US Signal Corps)

    A lifelong vaccine against extremism

    For the American liberators, their up-close view of the horrors of Mauthausen and their interactions with the Spanish antifascist survivors was a lifelong vaccine against extremism.

    They witnessed how a fascist leader tore the world apart. They saw with their own eyes the death and destruction of political extremism.

    When I interviewed Hartzell, he expressed concern that the United States is going down a dangerous path.

    “The USA today is not the USA I fought and came close to dying for,” Hartzell told me.

    As American Mauthausen liberator Maj. George E. King warned an interviewer in 1980:

    “This is the lesson we have to learn: It could happen here.”

    Sara J. Brenneis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. American liberators of Nazi camps got ‘a lifelong vaccine against extremism’ − their wartime experiences are a warning for today – https://theconversation.com/american-liberators-of-nazi-camps-got-a-lifelong-vaccine-against-extremism-their-wartime-experiences-are-a-warning-for-today-248813

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is reinforcement learning? An AI researcher explains a key method of teaching machines – and how it relates to training your dog

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ambuj Tewari, Professor of Statistics, University of Michigan

    Training an AI system and training a dog have a basic principle in common. Westend61 via Getty Images

    Understanding intelligence and creating intelligent machines are grand scientific challenges of our times. The ability to learn from experience is a cornerstone of intelligence for machines and living beings alike.

    In a remarkably prescient 1948 report, Alan Turing – the father of modern computer science – proposed the construction of machines that display intelligent behavior. He also discussed the “education” of such machines “by means of rewards and punishments.”

    Turing’s ideas ultimately led to the development of reinforcement learning, a branch of artificial intelligence. Reinforcement learning designs intelligent agents by training them to maximize rewards as they interact with their environment.

    As a machine learning researcher, I find it fitting that reinforcement learning pioneers Andrew Barto and Richard Sutton were awarded the 2024 ACM Turing Award.

    What is reinforcement learning?

    Animal trainers know that animal behavior can be influenced by rewarding desirable behaviors. A dog trainer gives the dog a treat when it does a trick correctly. This reinforces the behavior, and the dog is more likely to do the trick correctly the next time. Reinforcement learning borrowed this insight from animal psychology.

    But reinforcement learning is about training computational agents, not animals. The agent can be a software agent like a chess-playing program. But the agent can also be an embodied entity like a robot learning to do household chores. Similarly, the environment of an agent can be virtual, like the chessboard or the designed world in a video game. But it can also be a house where a robot is working.

    Just like animals, an agent can perceive aspects of its environment and take actions. A chess-playing agent can access the chessboard configuration and make moves. A robot can sense its surroundings with cameras and microphones. It can use its motors to move about in the physical world.

    Agents also have goals that their human designers program into them. A chess-playing agent’s goal is to win the game. A robot’s goal might be to assist its human owner with household chores.

    The reinforcement learning problem in AI is how to design agents that achieve their goals by perceiving and acting in their environments. Reinforcement learning makes a bold claim: All goals can be achieved by designing a numerical signal, called the reward, and having the agent maximize the total sum of rewards it receives.

    Reinforcement learning from human feedback is key to keeping AIs aligned with human goals and values.

    Researchers do not know if this claim is actually true, because of the wide variety of possible goals. Therefore, it is often referred to as the reward hypothesis.

    Sometimes it is easy to pick a reward signal corresponding to a goal. For a chess-playing agent, the reward can be +1 for a win, 0 for a draw, and -1 for a loss. It is less clear how to design a reward signal for a helpful household robotic assistant. Nevertheless, the list of applications where reinforcement learning researchers have been able to design good reward signals is growing.

    A big success of reinforcement learning was in the board game Go. Researchers thought that Go was much harder than chess for machines to master. The company DeepMind, now Google DeepMind, used reinforcement learning to create AlphaGo. AlphaGo defeated top Go player Lee Sedol in a five-match game in 2016.

    A more recent example is the use of reinforcement learning to make chatbots such as ChatGPT more helpful. Reinforcement learning is also being used to improve the reasoning capabilities of chatbots.

    Reinforcement learning’s origins

    However, none of these successes could have been foreseen in the 1980s. That is when Barto and his then-Ph.D. student Sutton proposed reinforcement learning as a general problem-solving framework. They drew inspiration not only from animal psychology but also from the field of control theory, the use of feedback to influence a system’s behavior, and optimization, a branch of mathematics that studies how to select the best choice among a range of available options. They provided the research community with mathematical foundations that have stood the test of time. They also created algorithms that have now become standard tools in the field.

    It is a rare advantage for a field when pioneers take the time to write a textbook. Shining examples like “The Nature of the Chemical Bond” by Linus Pauling and “The Art of Computer Programming” by Donald E. Knuth are memorable because they are few and far between. Sutton and Barto’s “Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction” was first published in 1998. A second edition came out in 2018. Their book has influenced a generation of researchers and has been cited more than 75,000 times.

    Reinforcement learning has also had an unexpected impact on neuroscience. The neurotransmitter dopamine plays a key role in reward-driven behaviors in humans and animals. Researchers have used specific algorithms developed in reinforcement learning to explain experimental findings in people and animals’ dopamine system.

    Barto and Sutton’s foundational work, vision and advocacy have helped reinforcement learning grow. Their work has inspired a large body of research, made an impact on real-world applications, and attracted huge investments by tech companies. Reinforcement learning researchers, I’m sure, will continue to see further ahead by standing on their shoulders.

    Ambuj Tewari receives funding from NSF and NIH.

    ref. What is reinforcement learning? An AI researcher explains a key method of teaching machines – and how it relates to training your dog – https://theconversation.com/what-is-reinforcement-learning-an-ai-researcher-explains-a-key-method-of-teaching-machines-and-how-it-relates-to-training-your-dog-251887

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: More adults are taking up gymnastics — and reaping the benefits

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sophie Burton, Senior Lecturer in Sport and Exercise Biomechanics, Cardiff Metropolitan University

    shutterstock Alex Emanuel Koch/Shutterstock

    Gymnastics has long been seen as the domain of children and teenagers, with young athletes flipping and tumbling their way through high-energy routines before retiring in their late teens or early twenties. But in recent years, a surprising shift has emerged – more adults are taking up the sport. Whether for fitness or fun, gymnastics is no longer just for the young.

    What’s the reason for this? And what benefits can adults gain from embracing a sport known for its physical demands?

    The rise in adult gymnastics is more than just a passing fad. Participation numbers have been climbing steadily over the past few years. In the US, for example, the number of adult gymnasts has grown by over 25% in the past five years.

    In the UK, there are more than 400 gymnastics centres offering programmes specifically for over 18s. There are also adult-specific championships, with opportunities to compete in acrobatic, artistic, trampolining and tumbling gymnastics.

    Clubs once focused solely on youth gymnastics programmes are now seeing increased demand for adult classes. Club owners and coaches have noted a swing in their membership demographics, with more adults signing up to refine their skills or simply try something new.

    This is something I have seen first hand. Having competed at gymnastics as a child before retiring in my late teens, I then transitioned into coaching. As a coach, I found myself particularly drawn to adult gymnastics classes, which were starting to grow in popularity. I enjoyed the unique challenges and rewards of coaching adults, as they brought a fresh energy to the gym.

    Several factors may be driving this newfound enthusiasm for gymnastics among adults.

    One reason may be the challenge of learning new skills later in life. Mastering a cartwheel, handstand or somersault as an adult requires coordination, strength and perseverance. Many adults are drawn to gymnastics precisely because it offers a steep learning curve, providing both a physical and mental challenge.

    It’s also an opportunity to revisit childhood passions. For many people, gymnastics may have been a childhood activity they drifted away from. Now, as adults, they’re rediscovering the joy of movement – this time with the benefit of structured training and supportive coaching.

    Social media has played a role in the rise of adult gymnastics too. Platforms such as Instagram and TikTok are filled with stories of adult beginners tackling gymnastics, from learning their first handstand to mastering backflips.

    On the more elite end of the sport, there are numerous examples of gymnasts displaying longevity or of others making comebacks having retired years earlier. For example, Chellsie Memmel, the US 2008 Olympic team silver-medalist and 2005 world all-around champion, announced in 2020 that she was coming out of retirement at the age of 32.

    Meanwhile, the career of 49-year-old Uzbek gymnast Oksana Chusovitina has spanned almost four decades. Chusovitina is the only gymnast ever to compete in eight Olympic Games, and she has also competed at 16 world championships. Last month, she finished fourth in the women’s vault final at the FIG World Cup in Antalya, Turkey.

    Athletes like Memmel and Chusovitina are an inspiration to adults who may have thought they were too old to give gymnastics a go.

    Another major factor is the post-pandemic focus on health. COVID-19 led many to rethink their approach to fitness. Gymnastics, which combines strength, mobility, flexibility and endurance, offers a full-body workout which appeals to people looking to maintain an active lifestyle.

    What are the benefits?

    Physically, gymnastics improves flexibility, mobility, balance, coordination and strength. The controlled movements and stretching involved enhance the body’s range of motion and reduce stiffness.

    Learning to support one’s own body weight in movements such as handstands builds core and upper-body strength, while the emphasis on balance helps prevent falls and injuries. Strengthening muscles and joints through gymnastics can also benefit other sports and daily activities, reducing the likelihood of strains and sprains.

    Beyond the physical benefits, gymnastics offers mental and social advantages. Learning complex movements keeps the brain engaged and improves focus, providing cognitive stimulation. Mastering new skills fosters a sense of achievement and self-belief, while the sense of progress can be highly motivating.

    Many adults may also find that gymnastics provides an excellent outlet for stress relief, allowing them to disconnect from daily pressures and focus on movement. And adult gymnastics classes often create a strong sense of community, where participants can support one another, share goals and celebrate progress together.

    Any challenges?

    Despite its benefits, adult gymnastics does come with challenges. One of the biggest concerns for newcomers is the fear of injury. Gymnastics is a demanding sport and the risk of falls and strains can be a worry. But structured training, proper warm-ups and gradual progression all help to minimise these risks.

    Another common challenge is self-consciousness. Many adults may feel intimidated by the thought of practising alongside younger, more experienced gymnasts. However, the growing availability of adult-only classes has helped make the sport more inclusive and accessible.

    A more practical challenge is the limited availability of suitable classes. While the number of clubs offering adult gymnastics is growing, not all facilities cater to beginners, meaning some may need to travel further to train. Nevertheless, as demand increases, more clubs are expanding their offerings to accommodate adult learners.

    So, if you’ve ever wanted to revisit an old passion or take on a new physical challenge, gymnastics might just be worth a shot. The increasing number of adults taking up the sport shows that age is no barrier to trying something new.

    Sophie Burton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. More adults are taking up gymnastics — and reaping the benefits – https://theconversation.com/more-adults-are-taking-up-gymnastics-and-reaping-the-benefits-252067

    MIL OSI – Global Reports