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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Jim Chalmers highlights expectations of May interest rate cut – after the election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Amid the chaos of the tariff crisis and the dark clouds internationally, there is a potential silver lining for Australian mortgage holders.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Monday pointed out that the markets were expecting several cuts in Australia’s interest rates this year, including one next month. There has been one cut so far, in February.

    “Markets are now expecting around four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year”, Chalmers told a news conference. There was even a “more than 50% expectation in the markets that the next Reserve Bank interest rate cut in May might be as big as 50 basis points”.

    While saying he didn’t predict or pre-empt Reserve Bank decisions, Chalmers nevertheless highlighted what the markets are expecting.

    The next meeting of the Reserve Bank is on May 19-20, so a cut would be after the May 3 election.

    Chalmers said the “whole world” was trying to get their heads around the impacts of these “bad decisions” on tariffs.

    Releasing updated Treasury modelling of the impact, Chalmers said it expected big hits to American growth and to Chinese growth, as well as a spike in American inflation.

    “We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit, and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well”.

    Chalmers stressed the uncertainty around the modelling and about the economic impacts more generally. “Clearly, a series of decisions are still to be taken around the world when it comes to how countries may or may not retaliate to the decisions taken and announced by President Trump”.

    The Treasury modelling says: “The effects on the Australian economy are expected to be modest, however, some parts of the agriculture, energy, mining and durable manufacturing sectors will be more adversely affected than others”.

    “Australia’s real GDP is estimated to decline by 0.1 per cent and inflation to increase by 0.2 percentage points in 2025 relative to a baseline scenario with no tariffs. Over the medium-term Australia’s GDP is permanently lower; while the effect on inflation is temporary.

    “The direct effects of the United States tariff changes (from bilateral trade) are expected to be small.

    “Most of Australia’s exposure to US tariffs comes from reduced demand for Australian exports from major trading partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and India.

    “The indirect effects of US tariffs on Chinese demand accounts for almost 80 per cent of the total impact on Australian GDP.”

    Government to promise $1 billion for mental health, with emphasis on youth

    Returning to Labor’s core issue of health, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday will promise $1 billion for free mental health services that would fill gaps in the system.

    This includes

    • $225 million for 31 new and upgraded Medicare Mental Health Centres

    • More than $200 million for 58 new, upgraded or expanded headspace services

    • $500 million for 20 Youth Specialist Care Centres for young people with complex needs, and

    • $90 million for more than 1,200 training places for mental health professionals and peer workers.

    The government says the new network of Youth Specialist Care Centres would ensure young people in “the missing middle” received needed specialist help. It would mean those with complex mental health needs such as personality disorders, eating disorders and early psychosis would be able to ongoing and intensive care outside hospital.

    Dog day for Dutton

    Saying you got it wrong is never harder than in an election campaign. Peter Dutton bowed to the inevitable in dropping his plan to force Canberra public servants back into the office, but fronting the media for the mea culpa on Monday was painful.

    “I have apologised for the decision we took in relation to work from home,” he said. He added, with false optimism, “Labor’s run this scare campaign and I think we bring an end to that today.”

    It wasn’t the only pain of the day for the opposition leader, who needs – to borrow his own election slogan – to get his campaign “back on track”. The message from Newspoll, the poll many Liberals take most notice of, was bad. Labor had extended its lead in a week, from 51%-49% in two-party terms to 52%-48%. This is close to the result of the 2022 election, and can only alarm the Liberal campaigners.

    Some Liberals, disappointed with the Coalition campaign so far, are recalling John Howard’s mantra: you can’t fatten the pig on market day. “There’s not much evidence the work has been done,” one says.

    As of late Monday, Dutton had still not produced the modelling for his controversial gas reservation scheme, which has made it more difficult for candidates to explain the policy to voters.

    On another front, the Liberals have also failed to do their work properly in vetting candidates. They’ve had to disendorse their candidate for the Sydney Labor seat of Whitlam, Ben Britton.

    Previously Britton had said women should be removed from combat positions in the defence force. “Their hips are being destroyed because they can’t cope with the carrying of the heavy loads and the heavy impacts that’s required for doing combat-related jobs,” he said, among other comments attacking “diversity and equity quotas” for weakening Australia’s defence.

    In previous elections, parties have had to remove candidates after previous embarrassing comments have turned up. Surely the Liberals would have learned to be scrupulous in vetting. But in the New South Wales Liberal organisation, it seems to take a long time for the messages to get through.

    .

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Jim Chalmers highlights expectations of May interest rate cut – after the election – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-jim-chalmers-highlights-expectations-of-may-interest-rate-cut-after-the-election-253733

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Antarctica’s hidden threat: meltwater under the ice sheet amplifies sea-level rise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chen Zhao, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania

    LouieLea, Shutterstock

    One of the biggest challenges in predicting Antarctica’s deeply uncertain future is understanding exactly what’s driving its ice loss.

    A vast network of lakes and streams lies beneath the thick ice sheet. This water can lubricate the ice, allowing it to slide more rapidly toward the ocean.

    Our new research shows “subglacial water” plays a far larger role in Antarctic ice loss than previously thought. If it’s not properly accounted for, future sea-level rise may be vastly underestimated.

    Including the effects of evolving subglacial water in ice sheet models can triple the amount of ice flowing to the ocean. This adds more than two metres to global sea levels by 2300, with potentially enormous consequences for coastal communities worldwide.

    How hidden lakes threaten Antarctic Ice Sheet stability. (European Space Agency)

    Understanding the role of subglacial water

    Subglacial water forms when the base of the ice sheet melts. This occurs either due to friction from the movement of the ice, or geothermal heat from the bedrock below.

    The presence of subglacial water enables ice to slide over the bedrock more easily. It can also cause further melting under ice shelves, leading to even faster ice loss.

    So it’s crucial to understand how much subglacial water is generated and where it goes, as well as its effect on ice flow and further melting.

    But subglacial water is largely invisible. Being hidden underneath an ice sheet more than two kilometres deep makes it incredibly difficult to observe.

    Scientists can drill boreholes through hundreds to thousands of metres of ice to get to it. But that’s an expensive and logistically challenging process.

    Alternatively, they can use ice-penetrating radar to “see” through the ice. Another technique called laser altimetry examines changes in the height of the ice at the surface. Bulges might appear when lakes under the ice sheet fill, or disappear when they empty.

    More than 140 active subglacial lakes have been identified beneath Antarctica over the past two decades. These discoveries provide valuable insights. But vast regions — especially in East Antarctica — remain unexplored. Little is known about the connections between these lakes.

    Hot water drilling at Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica.
    Duanne White, University of Canberra/Australian Antarctic Division

    What we did and what we found

    We used computer simulations to predict the influence of subglacial water on ice sheet behaviour.

    We used two computer models:

    Then we explored how different assumptions about subglacial water pressure affect ice sheet dynamics. Specifically, we compared scenarios where water pressure was allowed to change over time against scenarios where it remained constant.

    When the effects of changing subglacial water pressure were included in the model, the amount of ice flowing into the ocean under future climate nearly tripled.

    These findings suggest many existing sea-level rise projections may be too low, because they do not fully account for the dynamic influence of subglacial water.

    Our research highlights the urgent need to incorporate subglacial water dynamics into these models. Otherwise we risk significantly underestimating the rate and magnitude of future sea-level rise.

    We simulated subglacial water pressure across Antarctica, revealing vulnerable regions potentially influenced by subglacial water, and mapped both active (blue) and stable (yellow) subglacial lakes and subglacial water channels (black lines).
    Zhao, C., et al, 2025. Nature Communications.

    In the video below, the moving dark lines show where grounded ice begins to float. The left panel is a scenario where subglacial water is not included in the ice sheet model and the right panel is a scenario that includes the effects of evolving subglacial water.

    Simulated Antarctic ice velocity over 1995–2300, using the Elmer/Ice model of ice sheets.

    A looming threat

    Failing to account for subglacial water means global sea-level rise projections are underestimated by up to two metres by 2300.

    A two-metre rise would put many coastal cities in extreme danger and potentially displace millions of people. The economic damage could reach trillions of dollars, damaging vital infrastructure and reshaping coastlines worldwide.

    It also means the timing of future tipping points are underestimated too. This is the point at which the ice sheet mass loss becomes much more rapid and likely irreversible. In our study, most regions cross this threshold much earlier, some as soon as 2050. This is deeply concerning.

    The way forward

    Understanding Antarctica’s hidden water system is challenging. The potential for rapid, catastrophic and irreversible ice loss remains.

    More observations are needed to improve our models, particularly from remote regions such as East Antarctica. Continuing to gather information from boreholes, ice-penetrating radar and satellites will help us better understand how the underside of the ice sheet behaves. These techniques can then be combined with computer simulations to enable more accurate projections of future ice loss and sea-level rise.

    Our new research shows integrating subglacial water dynamics into ice sheet models is a top priority. Understanding this hidden threat is crucial as the world grapples with the consequences of global warming especially rising seas.

    Chen Zhao is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award. Dr Zhao is affiliated with Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), at the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, supported under the Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program.

    Ben Galton-Fenzi is also affiliated with Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), at the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), supported under the Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program, and the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, supported under the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative, both based at the University of Tasmania.

    – ref. Antarctica’s hidden threat: meltwater under the ice sheet amplifies sea-level rise – https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-hidden-threat-meltwater-under-the-ice-sheet-amplifies-sea-level-rise-250780

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do I need another COVID booster? Which one should I choose? Can I get it with my flu shot?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Griffin, Professor, Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The University of Queensland

    Tijana Simic/Shutterstock

    Australians are being urged to roll up their sleeves for a flu vaccine amid rising cases of influenza.

    It’s an opportune time to think about other vaccines too, particularly because some vaccines can be given at the same time as the flu vaccine.

    One is the COVID vaccine.

    Should you get another COVID shot?

    More than five years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we hear much less about this virus. But it’s still around.

    In 2024 there were 4,953 deaths involving COVID. This is nearly 20% lower than in 2023, but still nearly five times that of influenza (1,002).

    Vaccines, which do a very good job at reducing the chances of severe COVID, remain an important tool in our ongoing battle against the virus.

    Case numbers don’t tell us as much about COVID anymore as fewer people are testing. But based on other ways we monitor the virus, such as cases in ICU and active outbreaks in residential aged care homes, there have essentially been two peaks a year over recent years – one over summer and one over winter.

    This doesn’t mean we can predict exactly when another wave will happen, but it’s inevitable and may well be within the next few months. So it’s worth considering another COVID vaccine if you’re eligible.

    Who can get one, and when?

    There are several risk factors for more severe COVID, but some of the most important include being older or immunocompromised. For this reason, people aged 75 and older are recommended to receive a COVID booster every six months.

    In the slightly younger 65 to 74 age bracket, or adults aged 18 to 64 who are immunocompromised, booster doses are recommended every 12 months, but people are eligible every six months.

    Healthy adults under 65 are eligible for a booster dose every 12 months.

    Healthy children aren’t recommended to receive boosters but those who are severely immunocompromised may be eligible.

    What COVID shots are currently available?

    We’ve seen multiple types of COVID vaccines since they first became available about four years ago. Over time, different vaccines have targeted different variants as the virus has evolved.

    While some vaccine providers may still offer other options, such as the older booster that targeted the Omicron variant XBB.1.5, the recent JN.1 booster is the most up-to-date and best option.

    This is a relatively recently updated version to improve protection against some of the newer strains of COVID that are circulating. The new booster only became available in Australia in late 2024.

    This booster, as the name suggests, targets a subvariant called JN.1. Although JN.1 has not been the dominant subvariant in Australia for some time, this shot is still expected to provide good protection against circulating subvariants, including new subvariants such as LP.8.1, which is descended from JN.1.

    While it’s great we have an updated booster available, unfortunately uptake remains poor. Only 17.3% of people 75 and over had received a COVID vaccine in the six months to March.

    COVID vaccine uptake has been poor recently.
    Steve Heap/Shutterstock

    Getting a flu and COVID shot together

    Data from more than 17,000 people who completed a survey after receiving the JN.1 booster shows that while 27% reported at least one adverse event following vaccination, the majority of these were mild, such as local pain or redness or fatigue.

    Only 4% of people reported an impact on their routine activities following vaccination, such as missing school or work.

    If you choose to get the flu vaccine and the COVID vaccine at the same time, they’ll usually be given in different arms. There shouldn’t be a significant increase in side effects. What’s more, getting both shots at the same time doesn’t reduce your immune response against either vaccine.

    Now is the ideal time to get your flu vaccine. If you’re eligible for a COVID booster as well, getting both vaccines at the same time is safe and can be very convenient.

    We’re conducting trials in Australia, as are scientists elsewhere, of combined vaccines. One day these could allow vaccination against COVID and flu in a single shot – but these are still a way off.

    If you’re not sure about your eligibility or have any questions about either vaccine, discuss this with your GP, specialist of pharmacist. Australian state and federal government websites also provide reliable information.

    Paul Griffin has been the principal investigator on many vaccine clinical trials and received speaker honoraria and been a member of medical advisory boards for vaccine manufacturers. He is also a scientific advisory board member and director of the immunisation coalition.

    – ref. Do I need another COVID booster? Which one should I choose? Can I get it with my flu shot? – https://theconversation.com/do-i-need-another-covid-booster-which-one-should-i-choose-can-i-get-it-with-my-flu-shot-252914

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Financial markets are tanking. Here’s why it’s best not to panic

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Hartigan, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

    Financial markets around the world have been slammed by the Trump adminstration’s sweeping tariffs on its trading partners, and China’s swift retaliation.

    Share markets have posted their biggest declines since the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, as fears of US recession surged. Iron ore, copper, oil, gold and the Australian dollar have all tumbled.

    On Wall Street, leading indices have fallen around 10% since the tariffs were announced, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 20% from its recent peak. European and Asian markets have also slumped.

    In Australia, the key S&P/ASX 200 slid another 4.2% on Monday to levels last seen in December 2023, taking its three-day losses since the announcement to more than 7%.

    Why are markets reacting so badly?

    Financial markets reacted so negatively because the tariffs were much larger than expected. They represent the biggest upheaval in global trade in 80 years.

    Many traders were hoping the tariffs would be used mainly as a bargaining tool. But comments by US President Donald Trump that markets may need to “take medicine” seem to suggest otherwise.

    The tariffs are expected to weaken economic growth in the US as consumers pare back spending on more expensive imports, while businesses shelve investment plans. Leading US bank JP Morgan has put the chance of a US recession as high as 60%.

    This comes at a time when the US economy was already looking fragile. The highly regarded GDPNow model developed by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank indicates US March quarter GDP will fall 2.8%, and that was before the tariff announcement.

    Worries about global growth

    Fears of a recession in the United States and the potential for a global downturn has led to a broad sell-off in commodity prices, including iron ore, copper and oil. Further, the Australian dollar, which is seen as a barometer for risk, has fallen below 60 US cents in local trading – its lowest level since 2009.

    While the direct impact of tariffs on Australia is expected to be modest (with around 6% of our exports going to US), the indirect impact could be substantial. China, Japan and South Korea together take more than 50% of Australia’s exports, and all have been hit with significantly higher tariffs.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Monday that the direct impact on the Australian economy would be “manageable”.

    The full effect on Australia will depend on how other countries respond, and whether we can redirect trade to other markets.

    The rapid decline in the Australian dollar will help offset some of the negative effects associated with a global downturn and the fall in commodity prices.

    We can also expect some interest-rate relief. Economists are now predicting three further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, starting in May. This brings economists into line with financial market forecasts.



    Read more:
    US tariffs will upend global trade. This is how Australia can respond

    Hang in there, markets will recover

    Watching equity markets tumble so dramatically can be unsettling for any investor. However, it is important to note that equity markets have experienced many downturns over the past 125 years due to wars, pandemics, financial crises and recessions. But these market impacts have generally been temporary.

    History suggests that over the long term, equity prices continue to rise, supported by growing economies and rising incomes.

    The key thing for investors to remember is to not panic. Now is not the time to decide to switch your superannuation or other investments to cash. This risks missing the next upswing while also crystallising any current losses.

    For example, despite the steep market sell-off in March 2020 as the first COVID lockdowns came into effect, the Australian share market had completely recovered those losses by June 2021.

    It is good practice for investors to regularly reassess their risk profile to make sure it is right for their current stage of life. This means reducing the allocation to riskier assets as investors get closer to retirement age, while also maintaining a cash buffer to avoid having to sell assets during more turbulent periods such as now.

    Super funds are exposed to global risks

    The current sell-off has highlighted a potential issue facing the superannuation industry.

    So much of our superannuation is now invested in global equity markets, mostly in the US, because Australia’s superannuation savings pool – at more than A$4 trillion – has outgrown the investment opportunities available in Australia.

    Another issue facing the superannuation industry is the growth of cyber attacks, with several funds targeted in a recent attack. Given the massive size of the assets held by some funds, it would seem they need to improve their security to be on par with that of the banking system.

    Luke Hartigan receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Financial markets are tanking. Here’s why it’s best not to panic – https://theconversation.com/financial-markets-are-tanking-heres-why-its-best-not-to-panic-253929

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Without women, Australia’s defence force will struggle to recruit enough people

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Percy, Professor of International Relations, The University of Queensland

    Australia faces crisis-level workforce shortfalls in security and defence. Recruiting more people to the defence force is now an urgent matter of national security.

    So, comments – such as those recently made by a Liberal candidate that we “need to remove females from combat corps” in order to “fix” the military – come at the worst possible time.

    Such beliefs are not just unhelpful. They are dangerous.

    Without women in the national security workforce, and in combat roles, Australia will fail to hit its recruitment targets – at a time of critical international insecurity.

    Why is it so hard to attract women to the defence force?

    We know women are interested and engaged in international affairs.

    So, why don’t they want to join the defence force? In short, we don’t know – but we desperately need to find out.

    Women make up just 20.7% of the Australian Defence Force (ADF).

    Compared with a decade ago, this is an improvement. But the improvement has stalled. The latest figure represents a mere 0.1% increase compared with 2021 figures.

    This is serious.

    Australia’s recruitment problems put at risk our ability to:

    • conduct maritime patrols
    • defend against cyber attacks
    • maintain force readiness.

    Other democratic states worldwide are also struggling to achieve recruitment targets.

    Despite ambitious multi-year government programs aimed a boosting women’s participation in national security, and thousands of pages of reports and reviews on the issue, results have been limited and inconsistent.

    Most attempts to attract more women are focused on workplace improvements.

    Efforts include:

    Of the many government reviews and audits analysing the question, the vast majority focused on such workplace solutions.

    But what if the problem doesn’t lie in the workplace, but rather in wider society?

    What if one factor dissuading women was the archaic idea women just don’t really belong in the military at all?

    Societal attitudes matter

    The Liberal candidate who made the recent comments about women in combat roles has now been replaced. It’s positive to see his party saying such views are “inconsistent with the party’s position.”

    However, the incident suggests doubt remains in some quarters about women’s readiness to serve and take up combat roles.

    There’s a dearth of research on why exactly Australian women appear reluctant to join the ADF. Some of the reasons may be linked to the perception the ADF has a problem with sexual assault or sexism.

    But broader social gender norms matter too. When women hear comments reinforcing the idea national security is primarily a male field, they may simply not see a future for themselves or their daughters in it.

    A recent US study found 60% of teenage girls “have never considered joining the military or pictured themselves in uniform”.

    A passing glance at American politics demonstrates the often precarious position of women already working in national security. There, in recent months, debate has turned to:

    Trump’s America is not Australia, of course. But the recent backlash against women in the US security and defence arenas shows how quickly previous progress can be unwound.

    Could these debates be having a chilling effect on women in Australia who might otherwise consider a career in the military?

    More research is required to answer that question. But it’s possible public denigration of women in these roles deters women from seeking them at all, and may reinforce attitudes of those seeking to keep women out.

    Broadening the talent pool

    Australia’s own response to supporting diversity in the military has been mixed. In 2013, Chief of Army David Morrison made international headlines for a powerful speech about diversity.

    But Morrison faced criticism in the aftermath. Petitions called for his resignation and condemnation after he spoke about gender equality (and not veterans’ welfare) at an awards ceremony. He was criticised for caling for non-gendered language in Defence workplaces.

    Women make vital contributions to critical and creative thinking and decision-making in national security.

    Women in the military can do jobs men cannot do. Think, for example, of women who served in Afghanistan or Iraq, where it would be culturally unacceptable for a male soldier to talk to and work with local women. These were roles female soldiers were able to take up.

    Including women in defence increases the available talent pool, addressing pressing issues of workforce capability in the ADF.

    Australia’s national security requires women to be part of our military, including in combat roles. Without them, recruitment targets will fail. It is not diversity, equality and inclusion: it is reality.

    It is critically important to Australia’s national security we resist the trend from the United States. We must find out what’s stopping women from joining our defence force and address those problems urgently.

    Sarah Percy receives funding from the Australian Army History Unit.

    Elise Stephenson receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian government. She is affiliated with Women in International Security Australia.

    Maria Rost Rublee has received funding from the Australian Department of Defence, the Canadian Department of Defence, and the US Institute of Peace. She is affiliated with Women in International Security-Australia and Women in Nuclear-Australia.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Danielle Chubb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Without women, Australia’s defence force will struggle to recruit enough people – https://theconversation.com/without-women-australias-defence-force-will-struggle-to-recruit-enough-people-253844

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Batteries for all, not just the rich? Labor’s home battery plan must be properly targeted to be fair

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Best, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

    NOWRA photography/Shutterstock

    Over the weekend, Labor promised to subsidise home batteries by 30%. This would save about A$4,000 per household up front for an average battery. The scheme has a goal of one million batteries by 2030, costing an estimated $2.3 billion.

    The promise was received broadly favourably as a measure to help with cost of living pressures and encourage the broader shift to clean energy. Labor’s policy has some similarity to an earlier Greens pledge. Last month, the Coalition hinted it was working on its own home battery plan. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has attacked Labor’s plan, claiming the subsidies would benefit the rich.

    Dutton makes a good point. Upfront subsidies have to be well targeted. If they’re not, they could easily go to wealthier households and leave poorer ones behind.

    To fix it, Labor should start with lower subsidies – and means test them.

    What’s the fuss about home batteries?

    Homes with batteries can use stored solar energy instead of grid energy, or charge from the grid when power is cheap and use it when grid power is expensive. They can reduce power bills by around $1,000 a year.

    Over 300,000 Australian households already have a home battery. Uptake was already accelerating in Australia and overseas, as battery prices fall and power prices climb.

    If this policy leads to 1 million batteries by 2030 as Labor hopes, they would boost grid stability, reduce demand for expensive peak power from gas generators and even avoid the need to build some new transmission lines. These would be positive – if the benefits can be spread fairly.

    Subsidies must be properly targeted

    Caution is necessary, because we have seen very similar issues with previous schemes.

    When solar panels were expensive in the 2000s, many state governments offered subsidies to encourage more households to put them on their roofs. On one level, this worked well – one third of all Australian households now have solar. But on another, it failed – richer households took up solar subsidies much more than poorer, as my research has shown. As solar prices have fallen, this imbalance has partly been corrected.

    Home batteries are now in a similar situation. Installing an average sized home battery of between 5 and 10 kilowatt hours can cost less than $10,000, without the proposed federal subsidy. But this upfront cost means it’s currently largely wealthy households doing it, as I have shown in other research.

    If Labor’s policy isn’t properly targeted, wealthier households are more likely to take it up. This is because they can more easily afford to spend the remaining cost. Studies on electric and other vehicle subsidies in the United States show at least half of the subsidies went to people who would have bought the vehicle regardless. That’s good for wealthy households, but unfair to others.

    Targeting has advantages for governments, too. Proper targeting would reduce the cost to the public purse.

    Wealthier households like these in an expensive Sydney suburb were more likely to take up solar – and benefit from early subsidies.
    Harley Kingston/Shutterstock

    So who should be eligible?

    Wealthier households are likely to be able to afford home batteries without the subsidy – especially as costs fall.

    The cost of living crisis has hit less wealthy households hardest. A home battery policy should focus heavily on giving these households a way to reduce their power bills.

    How can governments do this? Largely by means-testing. To qualify for the subsidy, households should have to detail their financial assets.

    To begin with, a policy like this should only be eligible for households outside the top 25% for wealth.

    What about the 31% of Australians who rent their homes? This diverse group requires careful thought.

    Governments may have to offer extra incentives to encourage landlords to install home batteries. The solar roll-out shows landlords do benefit, as they can charge slightly higher rent for properties with solar.

    How much should subsidies be?

    Labor’s election offering of a 30% subsidy is too generous.

    While home batteries can cost more than $10,000, cheaper battery options are now available and state incentive schemes are also emerging. Western Australia, for instance, will have its own generous battery subsidy scheme running before July 1.

    Some households might be able to get subsidies at both state and national levels, which would cover most of the cost of a smaller battery.

    When governments offer high subsidies at the start of a new scheme, there’s a real risk of a cost blowout.

    To avoid this, governments should begin with the lowest subsidy which still encourages household investment. If low subsidies lead to low uptake, the government could then raise subsidies after an annual review.

    Another option is to vary how much the subsidy is based on household wealth. Lower wealth households get higher subsidies (say $2,500) while higher wealth households get a much lower subsidy (say $500).

    Governments could even consider equitable reverse auctions, where households with similar wealth compete for subsidies. Governments can then choose lower bids in the interest of cost-effectiveness.

    At present, Labor’s policy would give higher subsidies for larger batteries. This isn’t ideal. On solar, there’s a lack of evidence higher subsidies lead to larger solar systems, while households with more wealth tend to get larger solar systems.

    Good start, improvement needed

    Labor’s home battery policy has been welcomed by many in the energy sector. But as it stands, we cannot be sure it will fairly share the benefits of home batteries.

    If Labor or the Coalition does offer a well-targeted home battery policy, it would be world leading. Over time, it would directly help with the rising cost of living and ensure less wealthy households benefit.

    Rohan Best previously received funding from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    – ref. Batteries for all, not just the rich? Labor’s home battery plan must be properly targeted to be fair – https://theconversation.com/batteries-for-all-not-just-the-rich-labors-home-battery-plan-must-be-properly-targeted-to-be-fair-253445

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What our reaction to Adolescence tells us about our fear of boys, sex and the internet

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Alexandra James, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University

    News feeds have been flooded with reactions to Adolescence, Netflix’s newest viral hit. Released in March, the limited series racked up over 66 million views in just two weeks, making it the platform’s most-watched limited series to date.

    The show follows the arrest of a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a young girl. It hints at potential radicalisation through the “manosphere” – pointing to emojis, incels and influencers like Andrew Tate.

    From the BBC, to Rolling Stone, Harper’s Bazaar, and a range of Reddit threads, Adolescence has quickly become one of the most talked-about UK series in recent memory. While some of the buzz reflects its gripping cinematography and performances, much of it centres on the show’s depiction of online dangers and the risks for young boys exposed to this content.

    The show has reignited debate about boys and their relationship to digital spaces, particularly social media. The UK prime minister even backed a proposal to screen the series in schools for free, alongside calls for school smartphone bans – measures already in place in parts of Australia.

    This public reaction to Adolescence reveals a broader social anxiety about boys, sex and the digital world. But while the public reaction focuses on fear and internet restrictions, evidence shows that young people – boys included – are already engaging with the digital world in complex, thoughtful ways.

    A history of moral panic

    The same anxiety underpins Australia’s world-first ban on social media for under-16s – framed as a way to protect young people from sexual content, harmful gender roles, and the influence of platforms like Instagram and TikTok. The federal education minister has described social media as a “cesspit” from which children must be protected.

    Yet this policy was introduced in direct response to a rise in women being killed by their intimate partners. It’s a subtle but powerful misdirection – one that offers a political fix while avoiding the more difficult work of addressing men’s violence.

    Instead, this policy response draws on a history of moral panic about young people and the internet. Young people are a “problem” we can “fix”, while ignoring deeper social and cultural issues.

    This framing of boys and the internet ignores their capacity, skills and how they engage in the digital world. It also ignores the many ways in which they learn about relationships.

    Most importantly, it risks further marginalising boys from the conversations and education they urgently need.

    Young people engage with online spaces thoughtfully

    Our research with young people and experts shows that teens engage with online spaces far more thoughtfully than they’re often given credit. They know how to assess credibility, search for diverse sources and navigate content in ways that reflect their needs.

    This process – of searching, comparing, evaluating – isn’t passive consumption. It’s an important part of how young people develop and find space to think about their identities, sex and relationships.

    Their engagement is often nuanced: they weigh content against other information, test it against their own experience, and assess how trustworthy or relatable a source might be.

    In a context where young people routinely report receiving inadequate education on sex and relationships – via parents or school-based programs – online spaces play an important role in helping them to fill these gaps.

    These platforms often provide the only accessible way for young people to explore aspects of their identity, sexuality and relationships.

    Boys are left out

    Some of our other research shows that cisgender, heterosexual boys are often left out of conversations about sex, relationships and consent. Such conversations could give them space to ask questions, express uncertainty and give adults a chance to hear what the boys are thinking.

    Instead of engaging boys with empathy or curiosity, we tend to talk at them, as if they alone are the problem, rather than talking with them.

    When pornography is demonised, we also shut down the possibility of honest discussion. This leaves boys, who are often too afraid to ask questions, to interpret what they’re seeing without support. That silence creates a vacuum, one increasingly filled by figures like Tate. The “self-proclaimed misogynist”, with more than 10 million followers on Twitter, is known for promoting harmful views about women, violence and sexual assault.

    Banning access to social media won’t fix this; it only deepens the lack of meaningful engagement with what young people might be seeing online.

    Educators are also nervous about broaching these topics. This is hard in an environment where talking to kids about sex remains taboo and who is responsible for having these conversations is unclear. Should it fall to schools? Parents? Police?

    How we can support young people

    What’s needed are policies and education that support youth educators to address this effectively. This also means meeting boys where they are and providing all young people with the digital and relational skills to navigate these issues.

    Young people don’t need Adolescence to understand the internet – they already do. What they need is support, space to ask questions and skills to navigate the ideas they’re exposed to, both online and in the world around them. That requires brave policies that prioritise education and equip them with critical digital literacy.

    And if we’re serious about supporting young people, we need to stop pretending the problem starts with them.

    Alexandra James receives funding from The Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care and Lifestyles Australia.

    Andrea Waling receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

    Lily Moor receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

    – ref. What our reaction to Adolescence tells us about our fear of boys, sex and the internet – https://theconversation.com/what-our-reaction-to-adolescence-tells-us-about-our-fear-of-boys-sex-and-the-internet-253746

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What our reaction to Adolescence tells us about our fear of boys, sex and the internet

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra James, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University

    News feeds have been flooded with reactions to Adolescence, Netflix’s newest viral hit. Released in March, the limited series racked up over 66 million views in just two weeks, making it the platform’s most-watched limited series to date.

    The show follows the arrest of a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a young girl. It hints at potential radicalisation through the “manosphere” – pointing to emojis, incels and influencers like Andrew Tate.

    From the BBC, to Rolling Stone, Harper’s Bazaar, and a range of Reddit threads, Adolescence has quickly become one of the most talked-about UK series in recent memory. While some of the buzz reflects its gripping cinematography and performances, much of it centres on the show’s depiction of online dangers and the risks for young boys exposed to this content.

    The show has reignited debate about boys and their relationship to digital spaces, particularly social media. The UK prime minister even backed a proposal to screen the series in schools for free, alongside calls for school smartphone bans – measures already in place in parts of Australia.

    This public reaction to Adolescence reveals a broader social anxiety about boys, sex and the digital world. But while the public reaction focuses on fear and internet restrictions, evidence shows that young people – boys included – are already engaging with the digital world in complex, thoughtful ways.

    A history of moral panic

    The same anxiety underpins Australia’s world-first ban on social media for under-16s – framed as a way to protect young people from sexual content, harmful gender roles, and the influence of platforms like Instagram and TikTok. The federal education minister has described social media as a “cesspit” from which children must be protected.

    Yet this policy was introduced in direct response to a rise in women being killed by their intimate partners. It’s a subtle but powerful misdirection – one that offers a political fix while avoiding the more difficult work of addressing men’s violence.

    Instead, this policy response draws on a history of moral panic about young people and the internet. Young people are a “problem” we can “fix”, while ignoring deeper social and cultural issues.

    This framing of boys and the internet ignores their capacity, skills and how they engage in the digital world. It also ignores the many ways in which they learn about relationships.

    Most importantly, it risks further marginalising boys from the conversations and education they urgently need.

    Young people engage with online spaces thoughtfully

    Our research with young people and experts shows that teens engage with online spaces far more thoughtfully than they’re often given credit. They know how to assess credibility, search for diverse sources and navigate content in ways that reflect their needs.

    This process – of searching, comparing, evaluating – isn’t passive consumption. It’s an important part of how young people develop and find space to think about their identities, sex and relationships.

    Their engagement is often nuanced: they weigh content against other information, test it against their own experience, and assess how trustworthy or relatable a source might be.

    In a context where young people routinely report receiving inadequate education on sex and relationships – via parents or school-based programs – online spaces play an important role in helping them to fill these gaps.

    These platforms often provide the only accessible way for young people to explore aspects of their identity, sexuality and relationships.

    Boys are left out

    Some of our other research shows that cisgender, heterosexual boys are often left out of conversations about sex, relationships and consent. Such conversations could give them space to ask questions, express uncertainty and give adults a chance to hear what the boys are thinking.

    Instead of engaging boys with empathy or curiosity, we tend to talk at them, as if they alone are the problem, rather than talking with them.

    When pornography is demonised, we also shut down the possibility of honest discussion. This leaves boys, who are often too afraid to ask questions, to interpret what they’re seeing without support. That silence creates a vacuum, one increasingly filled by figures like Tate. The “self-proclaimed misogynist”, with more than 10 million followers on Twitter, is known for promoting harmful views about women, violence and sexual assault.

    Banning access to social media won’t fix this; it only deepens the lack of meaningful engagement with what young people might be seeing online.

    Educators are also nervous about broaching these topics. This is hard in an environment where talking to kids about sex remains taboo and who is responsible for having these conversations is unclear. Should it fall to schools? Parents? Police?

    How we can support young people

    What’s needed are policies and education that support youth educators to address this effectively. This also means meeting boys where they are and providing all young people with the digital and relational skills to navigate these issues.

    Young people don’t need Adolescence to understand the internet – they already do. What they need is support, space to ask questions and skills to navigate the ideas they’re exposed to, both online and in the world around them. That requires brave policies that prioritise education and equip them with critical digital literacy.

    And if we’re serious about supporting young people, we need to stop pretending the problem starts with them.

    Alexandra James receives funding from The Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care and Lifestyles Australia.

    Andrea Waling receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

    Lily Moor receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

    – ref. What our reaction to Adolescence tells us about our fear of boys, sex and the internet – https://theconversation.com/what-our-reaction-to-adolescence-tells-us-about-our-fear-of-boys-sex-and-the-internet-253746

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do we need a Martyn’s Law for venue security in Australia? The MCG gun scare is a wake-up call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne

    Two men were arrested for allegedly bringing loaded firearms into the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) during Thursday’s AFL match between Collingwood and Carlton.

    The incident didn’t result in harm but it triggered serious questions about venue security processes in Australia.

    The MCG had recently adopted AI-powered security screening systems, designed to detect weapons while streamlining crowd flow.

    The scanners reportedly flagged the men’s belongings but a failure in the follow-up manual check allowed them to enter.

    The event has reignited a national conversation about the right level of security at major venues. How do we balance the need for thorough screening with the goal of maintaining smooth ingress, individual freedom and public comfort?

    The timing is notable. Just days earlier, the UK passed Martyn’s Law, which introduces a legal duty for venues to assess and mitigate terrorism risks.

    The passage of this legislation prompts a broader question for Australia: should international developments like this influence how we think about security preparedness?

    AI security scanners

    The MCG recently contracted Evolv Technology, a US-based company, to supply AI-powered security screening systems for its major events.

    Their system is designed to detect weapons using a combination of sensors, millimetre wave technology and artificial intelligence, rather than relying on traditional metal detection.

    Evolv claims the system allows people to flow into the stadium faster compared to older technologies.

    Unlike traditional metal detectors, which operate on a simple binary system – alerting whenever metal is present – these scanners claim to offer a more granular assessment of objects.

    Instead of flagging all metal indiscriminately, the system is meant to evaluate the shape, size and density of objects to distinguish between benign items (such as keys or belts) and potential threats like firearms or large knives.

    This means patrons can pass through without removing metal items from their clothing or bags, significantly reducing wait times.

    When an item of interest is detected, the system highlights the specific area of the body or bag where it is located. This enables security staff to conduct a targeted search and avoid the need for a full-body inspections using hand-held detectors.

    Investigations and independent tests overseas have, however, identified false positives and missed detections as potential weaknesses in the Evolv system. One report found the system failed to detect certain knives and even some firearms in school settings.

    The risk associated with missed detection is self-explanatory: prohibited items can slip through the screening.

    But a high rate of false positives can also present challenges, particularly at the manual inspection stage, where staff are required to follow up on each alert. Over time, this can increase the likelihood of human error due to fatigue, reduced vigilance, or assumptions that flagged items are benign.

    So while AI scanners may be faster, they still depend heavily on the effectiveness of secondary manual screening and appropriate training of personnel. In the MCG breach, it is reported the scanners flagged items of concern when the two men entered the venue but the threat was missed during the manual follow-up process.

    Security matters

    The MCG breach exposed a gap in security that could, in other circumstances, be exploited with far more serious consequences.

    Public venues such as stadiums, especially during major events, are known to be targets for those planning high-impact attacks.

    Australia’s Strategy for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism explicitly lists stadiums and arenas as high-risk environments due to their crowd density, symbolic value and open access points.

    International experience reflects this concern. In the months leading up to the 2024 Paris Olympics, French authorities disrupted several planned attacks targeting Olympic-related venues and gatherings.

    Martyn’s Law: a new model

    As security practices evolve and new technologies are introduced, a parallel question is emerging: what should the legal expectations be for public venue operators when it comes to threat preparedness?

    In the United Kingdom, this question has led to Martyn’s Law – a major piece of legislation just passed by the parliament.

    The law was introduced in response to the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing, when 22 people were killed in a terrorist attack. One of the victims was Martyn Hett, whose mother, Figen Murray, campaigned for stronger, legally binding safety obligations for public venues.

    After six years of advocacy, the legislation was passed a few days ago.

    Martyn’s Law introduces a legal duty for UK venues to assess and mitigate terrorism risks. Depending on the size and type of venue, this includes measures such as conducting risk assessments, training staff and developing clear emergency response plans.

    Australia already has detailed guidance for the protection of crowded places. But unlike Martyn’s Law, that guidance is not a legal mandate.

    The silver lining

    Long security queues can frustrate patrons and dampen crowd mood. It’s no surprise venues are adopting AI-based screening to ease entry.

    But emerging technologies have limits and vulnerabilities may only surface once they’re in use.

    From a safety perspective, the best-case scenario is for these weaknesses to be revealed without harm, which can strengthen systems before a real failure occurs.

    The recent breach serves as just that: a prompt for review without consequence.

    These tools don’t replace trained personnel. Their success depends on clear procedures and defined responsibilities.

    That’s where legislation like the UK’s Martyn’s Law becomes relevant: turning good practice into legal obligation.

    As Australia prepares for global events, this is a chance to consider the governance that supports venue security.

    The presence of a legislative framework could serve as part of our overall security posture. And that, in itself, can help deter or mitigate risk.

    Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do we need a Martyn’s Law for venue security in Australia? The MCG gun scare is a wake-up call – https://theconversation.com/do-we-need-a-martyns-law-for-venue-security-in-australia-the-mcg-gun-scare-is-a-wake-up-call-253928

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 47% of Gen Z mainly vote to avoid a fine. It’s a sign of younger Australians’ discontent with democracy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University

    Young Australians will shape the upcoming federal election. For the first time, Gen Z and Millennials are the dominant voter bloc, outnumbering Baby Boomers.

    But over the past couple of years, we’ve heard stories from around the world about how Gen Z (people born between 1997 and 2012) are discontent with democracy. In the United States, just 62% of Gen Z voters believe living in a democracy is important, compared with nearly 90% of other generations.

    Globally, more than one in three young people support a strong leader who disregards parliaments and elections. This proportion is higher than among any older generation.

    Our recent research suggests Gen Z Australians aren’t immune to feeling disengaged with democracy. In fact, we found high rates of political disaffection among the country’s youngest voters, and those who didn’t vote, at the last federal election.

    Our research

    On the face of it, the situation seems better in Australia than elsewhere. According to Australian Election Study data, more than 85% of Gen Z voted at the 2022 federal election.

    And, again according to the study, the majority seem content with mainstream parties. While Gen Z people support the Greens and minor parties more than their elders, around 60% of them voted for the Labor Party and the Coalition in 2022.

    But we wanted to dig deeper. So in 2023, we asked around 1,500 Gen Z Australians nationwide whether they voted or not in 2022, and why.

    This enabled us to look at three distinct groups: those who voted; those who enrolled but did not vote (whom we call “abstainers”); and those who did not enrol to vote at all (whom we call “unregistered”).

    We found almost half of Gen Z who voted said the main reason was not out of a sense of duty or to support a party, but simply to avoid getting fined.

    While our survey can’t say how this compares to other generations, we know from the 2022 election study that 63% of Gen Z adults said they would have voted even if not compulsory, compared with almost 90% of other generations.

    Our research also shows almost a third of Gen Z citizens who didn’t register to vote said they either didn’t know they had to or they didn’t know how. This is troubling, given the efforts of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to get everyone on the roll.

    Those who don’t vote

    Our survey revealed if you’re a Gen Z Australian who didn’t vote (whether as abstainer or unregistered), you’re more likely to be unemployed, less politically interested and have less faith in democracy as the best system of government. You’re also more likely to have been born outside Australia.

    More than 50% of abstainers and 70% of unregistered Gen Z attributed their non-participation to a sense of disengagement, either from the whole political process or from parties and politicians specifically.

    Not participating, however, doesn’t mean you’re entirely alienated from society. Non-voters in our study are actually more likely to be members of organisations such as charities or church groups. But they are more alienated from the democratic process.

    Curiously, we found non-voters were no more likely than voters to hold negative views towards political parties. When asked questions such as whether they agreed that “parties do not care about people like me” and “parties are all the same”, there were no significant differences between these two groups.

    While this may sound like good news for parties, the less cheerful reality is the lack of difference is because Gen Z voters are just as sceptical as non-voters about political parties.

    So why does Gen Z vote?

    Enthusiasm towards parties has little to do with why Gen Z goes to the ballot box. Just 11% of them said the main reason they turned out in 2022 was because “there was a party or candidate I wanted to vote for”.

    Only around one in five said their primary motivation was because “I thought that voting makes a difference”.

    Instead, by far the most important reason for casting a vote was “I did not want to get fined”. This was the main driver for 47% of Gen Z Australians.

    On one hand, this seems like a great advertisement for compulsory voting with enforced penalties. Even a small fine like the $20 for not voting in a federal election is enough to get many Gen Z people to vote.

    On the other, if the key motivation is just to avoid a fine, it’s not a great sign of a healthy democracy.

    What can be done?

    Based on our research, there are a few things that might engage Gen Z more with parties and democracy.

    One is better information. Our survey showed there are still some Gen Z people who don’t know about their obligation to register or how to do it. The AEC has made great strides in increasing youth enrolment over the past decade, but there remains work to be done.

    Being present on the platforms Gen Z use to get their news might help. From that perspective, the refusal of the AEC to have a TikTok account should be reconsidered.



    Read more:
    If we listen to how gen Z really feel about democracy they might stop telling us they prefer authoritarianism

    Ultimately, the main onus lies with the political parties. If Gen Z are not motivated to support them, perhaps this tells us more about how parties engage with young people and their concerns, than it does about young people themselves.

    If the major parties can devote more attention to what matters to Gen Z, such as the cost of living, rent affordability, and climate change, they would not only address what are objectively pressing issues – they might also help reconnect young generations with politics and democracy.

    Duncan McDonnell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Ferran Martinez i Coma receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Sofia Ammassari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 47% of Gen Z mainly vote to avoid a fine. It’s a sign of younger Australians’ discontent with democracy – https://theconversation.com/47-of-gen-z-mainly-vote-to-avoid-a-fine-its-a-sign-of-younger-australians-discontent-with-democracy-253120

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 98% of Queensland prawn areas at risk of inundation by rising seas this century

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitie Kuempel, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University

    As climate change wreaks havoc with the world’s oceans, future production of fish, crustaceans and other aquatic organisms is under threat.

    Our new research shows how this disturbance will play out for Australia’s prawn industry, which is concentrated in Queensland. We found by 2100, sea level rise threatens to flood 98% of the state’s approved prawn areas.

    The problem is not confined to prawns – Queensland barramundi farming is also at risk from sea-level rise. Climate change also poses challenges for other major seafood industries in Australia, including salmon in Tasmania.

    Australian seafood is vital to our culture and diets, and the national economy. We must take steps now to ensure the aquaculture industry thrives in a warmer world.

    Spotlight on Queensland prawns

    Aquaculture refers to breeding, rearing and harvesting fish, crustaceans, algae and other organisms in water. Australia’s aquaculture industry is expected to be worth A$2.2 billion by 2028–29.

    Aquaculture can involve a variety of methods, from ponds and sea cages to indoor tank systems and even giant ships.

    Aquaculture is one of Queensland’s fastest-growing primary industries – partly due to burgeoning production in prawn farming.

    Queensland is also expected to experience a 0.8m sea-level rise by 2100, under a high-emissions scenario. Our research investigated how this could affect the state’s aquaculture industry.

    We did this by examining existing data on coastal inundation and erosion from sea-level rise, combined with data on current and future aquaculture production areas.

    We found 43% of sites where aquaculture production is currently occurring are at risk from sea-level rise. Prawn farming is the most vulnerable.

    About 98% of areas approved for prawn farming in Queensland are expected to be inundated by seawater by 2100. The risk includes 88% of areas currently producing prawns. Prawns are grown in large ponds on land near the coast with access to saltwater, which makes them particularly vulnerable to inundation. Annual prawn production losses due to sea-level rise could reach up to A$127.6 million by century’s end.

    Inundation and coastal erosion can cause breaches in pond walls compromising their structural integrity. These risks may be amplified when sea-level rise coincides with coastal flooding. Rising seas can also increase salinity in surrounding soils and groundwater, further affecting ponds. Other aquaculture infrastructure, such as hatcheries, buildings, and roads, may also be disrupted.

    The Gold Coast region – a prawn production hub – is particularly vulnerable. Damage caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred highlights the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure to extreme weather. This will only worsen as the planet warms.

    Queensland barramundi farms also face a serious threat. Some 44% of areas producing barramundi are likely to be exposed to inundation, causing up to A$22.6 million in annual production losses. Meanwhile, two of Queensland’s designated “Aquaculture Development Areas” – regions earmarked by the state government for industry expansion – may be unsuitable due to future sea levels. Both are located in the Hinchinbrook Shire Council area.

    Beyond rising seas

    Globally and in Australia, climate change is posing myriad challenges to seafood farmers.

    Rising water temperatures stress animals such as salmon, lowering oxygen levels which slows growth rates and increases their risk of disease. Such depletion is a particular concern in already low-oxygen environments, such as Tasmania’s Macquarie Harbour.

    Ocean heatwaves can cause mass fish deaths and devastate production. In Tasmania in February, more than 5,500 tonnes of dead fish were dumped at southern Tasmanian waste facilities – a problem linked to warmer water temperatures.

    Dead and decomposing fish can further alter oxygen levels in water, spread disease to wild populations and attract scavengers. In the Tasmanian case, fish remains washed up on public beaches, angering the public and leading to calls for greater industry regulation.

    Extreme weather further complicates aquaculture operations. Storms, flooding and abnormal rain patterns can affect water salinity which impacts species growth and survival. They can also damage vital infrastructure, which may allow animals to escape.

    This occurred in 2022, when repeated flooding and disease outbreaks on oyster farms in New South Wales led to complete stock losses, prolonged farm closures and workers being laid off.

    Surviving a warmer future

    Not all aquaculture operations will suffer under climate change. Warming waters can lead to longer growing seasons in temperate regions. It can also expand suitable habitat for tropical species such as tilapia, mussels and oysters. Regions previously inhospitable to aquaculture may become viable production zones.

    For the countries and producers that are expected to suffer, those that plan for and adapt to climate shifts can minimise losses.

    Key steps industry and government can take include:

    • planning farms in lower-risk areas and relocating vulnerable sites

    • implementing climate-resilient infrastructure and restoring coastal ecosystems near farms to buffer against climate impacts

    • expanding to include diverse species and selectively breeding stock that can tolerate the changing conditions

    • strategic government policies and planning, financial incentives, and investment in resilient infrastructure to help the industry stay ahead of climate risks.

    With the right strategies, Australia’s aquaculture industry can adapt to a changing climate and continue to contribute to food security and community wellbeing.

    Caitie Kuempel receives funding from the Blue Economy Cooperative Research Centre. She is affiliated with BECRC Marine Spatial Planning project.

    Marina receives Griffith University International Postgraduate Research Scholarship and Griffith University Postgraduate Research Scholarship as and HDR PhD Student

    – ref. 98% of Queensland prawn areas at risk of inundation by rising seas this century – https://theconversation.com/98-of-queensland-prawn-areas-at-risk-of-inundation-by-rising-seas-this-century-253330

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber’: nutrition experts on the viral TikTok trend

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

    @logansfewd via Instagram

    “Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber.”

    So begins a series of viral videos by TikTok “cucumber guy” Logan Moffitt, who has raked in millions of views for his cucumber salad videos. He’s also inspired thousands of copycat videos showcasing cucumbers as a hero ingredient in salads and other dishes.

    This trend has reportedly caused a surge in cucumber demand, leading to cucumbers being sold out in several stores in Australia and internationally.

    But what’s actually happening in your body when you eat an entire cucumber? Let’s review the science of cucumbers.

    Cucumbers 101

    Cucumbers (Cucumis sativus) are technically fruit that belong to the gourd family Cucurbitaceae. This family includes pumpkins, melons and zucchinis.

    Cucumbers originated from India over 3,000 years ago. They grow on vining plants and are typically harvested while still firm and unripe.

    Cucumbers are mostly water (96%), which is why Logan Moffitt has been described as the most hydrated person on the internet.

    Based on our calculations using the Australian Nutrient Reference Values, if you “ate an entire cucumber” (300g), you would consume:

    • about 11% of your daily carbohydrate needs (an important energy source)

    • about 5% of your daily fibre needs (fibre aids in digestion and gut health)

    • more than 50% of your daily vitamin K needs (important for bone health and blood clotting)

    • about 10% of your daily vitamin C needs (important for immune health, skin health and wound healing)

    • about 10% of your daily potassium needs (potassium regulates blood pressure and helps with muscle function).

    Unsurprisingly, there are no modern scientific studies that have specifically examined the health impacts of consuming an entire cucumber daily.

    However, cucumbers also contain cucurbitacins (especially in the skin) which researchers think may help with inflammation and could be a potential anti-cancer agent.

    More broadly, people have used cucumbers to:

    Can cucumbers help with hydration?

    Given they’re about 96% water, cucumbers could meaningfully increase daily fluid intake when eaten in moderate amounts.

    For example, an entire cucumber (about 300g) would contribute roughly 288 millilitres of water, which is just over one cup. We need plenty of water each day, so this additional intake could be helpful for some people.

    Their high water content, combined with essential electrolytes like potassium, makes them a refreshing snack, especially in hot weather or after exercise.

    While cucumbers can contribute to daily hydration, they shouldn’t replace drinking water. Adding cucumbers to meals or snacks could be a tasty way to stay hydrated, but you still need to drink water.

    Can someone eat too many cucumbers?

    Cucumbers can be a great addition to a healthy diet. Yet, relying on them too heavily might have unexpected downsides.

    Cucumbers are generally easy to digest and low in fermentable carbohydrates (FODMAPs), which means they are unlikely to cause bloating for most people in moderate amounts.

    However, when eaten in large amounts, some people may experience digestive discomfort, especially if they’re sensitive to fibre or have a history of irritable bowel issues.

    Being low in carbohydrates, fats and protein, cucumbers are unsuitable as a primary food source. In other words, you can’t just live on cucumbers. They don’t provide the essential nutrients needed for energy, muscle maintenance and overall health.

    If someone were to primarily eat cucumbers over an extended period, they could be at risk of undernutrition.

    What about adding MSG ‘(obviously)’?

    Many of the cucumber-based dishes on TikTok also include ingredients such as garlic, soy sauce, fish sauce, sesame oil and sugar – all well known to home cooks who like to boost flavour in their own dishes.

    Moffitt is also fond of saying “MSG, obviously”, when listing his favourite cucumber salad ingredients.

    MSG is monosodium glutamate, also known as food additive 621, an umami substance added to enhance the flavour of many Asian dishes.

    Despite past scare campaigns about MSG, it is safe and authorised for consumption in Australia and other countries.

    Typically, MSG is consumed at about 0.5g per serving, but some people report sensitivities at higher doses, such as over 3g.

    It’s also worth noting that many foods – including tomatoes, mushrooms, and parmesan cheese – naturally contain glutamate, the main component of MSG.

    So, should I eat an entire cucumber?

    Well, like any food, moderation and variety are key.

    Cucumbers are a refreshing and hydrating addition to a balanced diet, and work best nutritionally when paired with ingredients from other food groups.

    For example, to create a balanced meal, try combining cucumbers with protein-rich foods like tuna, chicken, eggs, or marinated tofu, along with whole grains such as wholemeal bread, pasta, or rice. This combination will help you to consume essential nutrients for sustained energy and overall health.

    And if you are looking for tailored dietary advice or a tailored meal plan, it’s always best to speak with an accredited practising dietitian.

    Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of Food Standards Australia and New Zealand, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    Pui Ting Wong (Pearl) receives funding from the Australian Government. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, and the Student Coordinator of Dietitians Australia Queensland Branch Leadership Committee.

    – ref. ‘Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber’: nutrition experts on the viral TikTok trend – https://theconversation.com/sometimes-you-need-to-eat-an-entire-cucumber-nutrition-experts-on-the-viral-tiktok-trend-253545

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber’: nutrition experts on the viral TikTok trend

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

    @logansfewd via Instagram

    “Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber.”

    So begins a series of viral videos by TikTok “cucumber guy” Logan Moffitt, who has raked in millions of views for his cucumber salad videos. He’s also inspired thousands of copycat videos showcasing cucumbers as a hero ingredient in salads and other dishes.

    This trend has reportedly caused a surge in cucumber demand, leading to cucumbers being sold out in several stores in Australia and internationally.

    But what’s actually happening in your body when you eat an entire cucumber? Let’s review the science of cucumbers.

    Cucumbers 101

    Cucumbers (Cucumis sativus) are technically fruit that belong to the gourd family Cucurbitaceae. This family includes pumpkins, melons and zucchinis.

    Cucumbers originated from India over 3,000 years ago. They grow on vining plants and are typically harvested while still firm and unripe.

    Cucumbers are mostly water (96%), which is why Logan Moffitt has been described as the most hydrated person on the internet.

    Based on our calculations using the Australian Nutrient Reference Values, if you “ate an entire cucumber” (300g), you would consume:

    • about 11% of your daily carbohydrate needs (an important energy source)

    • about 5% of your daily fibre needs (fibre aids in digestion and gut health)

    • more than 50% of your daily vitamin K needs (important for bone health and blood clotting)

    • about 10% of your daily vitamin C needs (important for immune health, skin health and wound healing)

    • about 10% of your daily potassium needs (potassium regulates blood pressure and helps with muscle function).

    Unsurprisingly, there are no modern scientific studies that have specifically examined the health impacts of consuming an entire cucumber daily.

    However, cucumbers also contain cucurbitacins (especially in the skin) which researchers think may help with inflammation and could be a potential anti-cancer agent.

    More broadly, people have used cucumbers to:

    Can cucumbers help with hydration?

    Given they’re about 96% water, cucumbers could meaningfully increase daily fluid intake when eaten in moderate amounts.

    For example, an entire cucumber (about 300g) would contribute roughly 288 millilitres of water, which is just over one cup. We need plenty of water each day, so this additional intake could be helpful for some people.

    Their high water content, combined with essential electrolytes like potassium, makes them a refreshing snack, especially in hot weather or after exercise.

    While cucumbers can contribute to daily hydration, they shouldn’t replace drinking water. Adding cucumbers to meals or snacks could be a tasty way to stay hydrated, but you still need to drink water.

    Can someone eat too many cucumbers?

    Cucumbers can be a great addition to a healthy diet. Yet, relying on them too heavily might have unexpected downsides.

    Cucumbers are generally easy to digest and low in fermentable carbohydrates (FODMAPs), which means they are unlikely to cause bloating for most people in moderate amounts.

    However, when eaten in large amounts, some people may experience digestive discomfort, especially if they’re sensitive to fibre or have a history of irritable bowel issues.

    Being low in carbohydrates, fats and protein, cucumbers are unsuitable as a primary food source. In other words, you can’t just live on cucumbers. They don’t provide the essential nutrients needed for energy, muscle maintenance and overall health.

    If someone were to primarily eat cucumbers over an extended period, they could be at risk of undernutrition.

    What about adding MSG ‘(obviously)’?

    Many of the cucumber-based dishes on TikTok also include ingredients such as garlic, soy sauce, fish sauce, sesame oil and sugar – all well known to home cooks who like to boost flavour in their own dishes.

    Moffitt is also fond of saying “MSG, obviously”, when listing his favourite cucumber salad ingredients.

    MSG is monosodium glutamate, also known as food additive 621, an umami substance added to enhance the flavour of many Asian dishes.

    Despite past scare campaigns about MSG, it is safe and authorised for consumption in Australia and other countries.

    Typically, MSG is consumed at about 0.5g per serving, but some people report sensitivities at higher doses, such as over 3g.

    It’s also worth noting that many foods – including tomatoes, mushrooms, and parmesan cheese – naturally contain glutamate, the main component of MSG.

    So, should I eat an entire cucumber?

    Well, like any food, moderation and variety are key.

    Cucumbers are a refreshing and hydrating addition to a balanced diet, and work best nutritionally when paired with ingredients from other food groups.

    For example, to create a balanced meal, try combining cucumbers with protein-rich foods like tuna, chicken, eggs, or marinated tofu, along with whole grains such as wholemeal bread, pasta, or rice. This combination will help you to consume essential nutrients for sustained energy and overall health.

    And if you are looking for tailored dietary advice or a tailored meal plan, it’s always best to speak with an accredited practising dietitian.

    Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of Food Standards Australia and New Zealand, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    Pui Ting Wong (Pearl) receives funding from the Australian Government. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, and the Student Coordinator of Dietitians Australia Queensland Branch Leadership Committee.

    – ref. ‘Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber’: nutrition experts on the viral TikTok trend – https://theconversation.com/sometimes-you-need-to-eat-an-entire-cucumber-nutrition-experts-on-the-viral-tiktok-trend-253545

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Looking inward: why Trump’s tariffs highlight the need for NZ to build local capacity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod McNaughton, Professor of Entrepreneurship, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    When retail executives start swearing during earnings calls, something is clearly amiss. That’s what happened recently when the CEO of United States-based luxury furniture retailer Restoration Hardware saw his company’s share price plunge by more than 25% in after-market trading.

    The cause? Donald Trump had just declared “Liberation Day”, announcing sweeping new tariffs on nearly all imports. For companies like Restoration Hardware – which rely on suppliers in China and Vietnam, and now face tariffs of over 50% – the impact was immediate: higher costs, disrupted supply chains and enormous uncertainty.

    New Zealand exporters were spared the worst, with exports facing only the 10% baseline tariff under the new regime. But the lesson is clear. In today’s world, the real threat isn’t always direct exposure, it’s volatility.

    Trump’s tariffs sparked a nosedive in share markets and reignited concerns about the reliability of global trade. And while tariffs may rise and fall, uncertainty seems here to stay. This is why an idea first developed by journalist and author Jane Jacobs in the 1980s deserves renewed attention.

    In Cities and the Wealth of Nations, Jacobs argued that sustainable economic growth isn’t driven by national policy or protectionism but by what she called “import replacement”: where cities and regions develop the capacity to produce goods they once imported.

    The concept is often confused with import substitution, where governments impose tariffs or subsidies to protect domestic industries. But Jacobs’ model is different. It’s not about shielding firms from competition. It’s about growing new capabilities from the ground up.

    A smarter response to volatility

    Import replacement happens when entrepreneurs identify goods currently sourced from elsewhere and start producing them locally, not because tariffs artificially advantage them but because they’ve found a better way to meet local needs. Over time, this drives specialisation, innovation, and eventually new exports.

    Jacobs believed this bottom-up process was the real engine of economic resilience. And she was right. In an era marked by pandemics, war, climate volatility and policy shocks, the ability to adapt quickly and locally is more valuable than ever.

    New Zealand saw this first-hand during COVID-19. When global supply chains stalled, we found ourselves unable to access essentials from PPE to packaging, diagnostic swabs to digital hardware. Some firms responded with ingenuity. Others waited. In many cases, local capacity simply wasn’t there.

    That experience revealed an uncomfortable truth: trade agreements alone don’t secure economic sovereignty. It depends on the capability to make, adapt and substitute when the system falters.

    Some entrepreneurs are already seizing the moment. In the US, for example, founder of activewear brand XX-XY Apparel, Jennifer Sey, argues that trade disruption creates space for ethical, transparent supply chains closer to home. For her, localisation is not just risk management, it’s a business opportunity.

    But rebuilding domestic capacity isn’t easy. It takes capital, skilled workers and time. And tariff-based incentives can vanish as quickly as they appear. That’s why the kind of import replacement Jacobs envisioned wasn’t a reactive policy tool but a long-term development strategy.

    What import replacement could look like

    The same logic applies to New Zealand. We are heavily dependent on imported goods in critical sectors like machinery, pharmaceuticals, digital infrastructure, fertilisers and food processing. If any of those supply chains is disrupted, we’re not just inconvenienced, we’re exposed.

    To reduce that vulnerability, we need to think strategically. That might mean developing domestic capacity to manufacture essential health products, or supporting entrepreneurs working on substitutes for imported fertilisers or packaging materials.

    It could mean encouraging research institutions to develop substitutes for materials we currently source offshore.

    Universities and other research organisations can play a vital role. By collaborating with startups and small or medium-sized businesses, they can accelerate innovation. From prototype to production, tertiary institutions can help translate research into real-world resilience.

    Public procurement could also be better leveraged. Government contracts could reward suppliers who help reduce import dependency and build options into our domestic supply chains.

    Crucially, we need to map our vulnerabilities. Which imports are critical to key sectors? Where are we reliant on a single country or supplier? What could we produce regionally, if not nationally, with the right insight and capability?

    Resilience is not retreat

    This is not an argument against trade. New Zealand’s economy depends on it. But if we’ve learned anything from COVID and now from “Liberation Day”, it’s that openness without options is a liability.

    Tariffs may make headlines. But they won’t build the necessary capabilities in the US or globally for the next crisis. That kind of economic resilience comes from the patient work of entrepreneurs in building, substituting, learning and adapting, at speed and close to home.

    Jacobs reminded us that economies don’t grow stronger by walling themselves off. They grow stronger when they learn to make what they once had to import and, in doing so, discover what the world might want next.

    Rod McNaughton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Looking inward: why Trump’s tariffs highlight the need for NZ to build local capacity – https://theconversation.com/looking-inward-why-trumps-tariffs-highlight-the-need-for-nz-to-build-local-capacity-253826

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Wave energy’s huge potential could finally be unlocked by the power of sound – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Usama Kadri, Reader of Applied Mathematics, Cardiff University

    Water good idea. Andrei Armiagov

    Ocean waves have long been seen as having huge potential as a source of renewable energy. Waves produce an estimated 50 trillion to 80 trillion watts of power worldwide – nearly two to three times the world’s current annual energy consumption.

    Many devices have been designed to capture and convert waves’ great power into electricity, but today’s technologies face challenges in efficiency, particularly in deeper waters. As a result, wave energy hasn’t yet taken off as a renewable source in the same way as wind and solar.

    One way around this problem lies in the interaction between two types of waves: those on the ocean’s surface, and those that reside underwater. My research group has just published a paper demonstrating how underwater sound waves can be used to make surface waves more powerful, potentially making them a more viable source of energy.

    The same insights could also eventually be used to reduce the risks of tsunamis by making them smaller. In addition, in a second new paper we show how underwater waves can be used to improve today’s tsunami early-warning system.

    The waves on the surface of the ocean are often created by a combination of wind raising up water and gravity pulling it back down – hence they’re sometimes referred to as surface-gravity waves. On the other hand, their underwater counterparts are sound waves produced by phenomena like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, sometimes thousands of metres below the surface.

    These acoustic waves travel by compressing and expanding the water, similar to how sound moves through the air. They travel across transoceanic distances at the speed of sound in the water (around 1,500 metres per second) before eventually dissipatin. Surface waves travel at much lower speeds, in the order of tens of metres per second.

    In classical water wave theory, these two types of waves are considered separate entities, each living in its own world at its own rhythm. The possibility of them interacting only arose on the back of a 2013 research paper that I co-authored, which prompted my colleagues and I to research a phenomenon known as triad resonance.

    This is where two acoustic waves transfer energy to a surface wave by matching its frequency, which in turn causes the surface wave to get larger and more powerful (by increasing its amplitude). This opens up the possibility of using an acoustic wave generator to generate sound waves tuned to a particular size and frequency that would enhance (or equally suppress) surface waves.

    Enhanced waves would enable today’s wave turbines and oscillating water columns (which use wave power to force air through a turbine) to produce more electricity, effectively overcoming their efficiency problem.

    Acoustic waves could enhance the power of surface waves.
    Wonderful Nature

    The main requirement would be an acoustic wave generator that could be finely tuned at the required scale. Acoustic wave generators already exist for laboratory purposes, so it’s a question of scaling up an existing technology.

    Our research findings show that triad resonance can increase surface wave heights by more than 30%. Of course, the generator would require energy, though the hope is that this too could be powered by waves to minimise carbon emissions. One additional challenge is to ensure that methods are developed to use the acoustic energy efficiently to ensure that the least possible energy is wasted.

    Our next step is to produce some more numerical simulations and to conduct a series of small-scale laboratory experiments looking at how triad resonance works in practice. These will help refine our theories and assess their feasibility, hopefully with a view to turning this into a commercial reality.

    Tsunami mitigation

    I originally suggested the possibility of reducing the height of tsunami waves by manipulating underwater acoustic waves back in 2017. In the new paper, we look at this in more detail.

    We found that the resonance mechanism certainly took place at an oceanic scale during the 2022 Tonga earthquake and tsunami. This shows that it’s theoretically possible to manipulate the size of a tsunami using our technique.

    The challenge lies in generating and directing the acoustic waves at the required scale and configuration in real-world conditions. This would be more challenging than using acoustic waves to help harness wave energy, not least because of the scale of tsunamis, which would necessitate a much more powerful acoustic-wave generator.

    Other issues to overcome would be knowing the exact properties of the tsunami in real time, and the risk that using the wrong configurations could actually make the wave bigger instead of smaller.

    While it could take some time to make this feasible, acoustic waves can also potentially help to mitigate tsunamis in a different way. Our second paper demonstrates that monitoring and analysing these waves in real time could complement the existing and emerging technologies for predicting tsunamis, including ocean buoys and seismometers.

    There are currently thousands of seismometers deployed around the world, but they only monitor earthquakes, whereas tsunamis can also be caused by landslides, explosions and volcanic eruptions. Even with earthquakes, large seismic readings don’t always entail large tsunamis. This can lead to false alarms, such as in Alaska in 2018.

    Meanwhile ocean buoys, which measure sea levels and water pressure, are often faulty because of their operating conditions, and also relatively slow at giving warnings when tsunamis (according to my calculations) can move at speeds of up to 200m per second in the deep ocean.

    A complementary system is to measure acoustic waves using an underwater microphone known as a hydrophone. These capture the acoustic waves created by all of the phenomena that cause tsunamis, and the speed at which these waves travel means that just 30 hydrophone stations could cover the entire world’s tsunami high risk areas.

    This could be particularly life-saving for coastal communities near the source of a tsunami. It would also support global goals for more resilient coastal cities, such as Unesco’s aim to make all such places “tsunami ready” by 2030.

    Usama Kadri receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust: Research Project Grant number 523930.

    – ref. Wave energy’s huge potential could finally be unlocked by the power of sound – new research – https://theconversation.com/wave-energys-huge-potential-could-finally-be-unlocked-by-the-power-of-sound-new-research-253422

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From flowers to stalking: how ‘nice guy’ narratives can lead to male entitlement and violence against women

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamilla Rosdahl, Senior Lecturer, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    Being labelled a “nice guy” was once considered a form of flattery. Today, however, anyone privy to the world of dating and romance will know this isn’t necessarily a compliment.

    The term has been unofficially reappropriated by women to describe a certain kind of man – one who presents as being “nice”, but feels entitled to some kind of attention from a woman in exchange for this niceness.

    We need to take this attitude seriously, since the more it is normalised, the more likely it is to put women at risk.

    When flowers become stalking

    Plenty of women have shared their experience of being sent abusive texts after they rejected or ignored a man while online dating. The Instagram account @ByeFelipe, which has more than 400,000 followers, frequently features posts of “nice men” weaponizing their niceness on dating apps.

    In one example, a woman tells a man she doesn’t want to have sex with him on their first meeting, and he responds by calling her “trash”, “ugly”, “old” and a “bitch”.

    In my ongoing research on violence against women I have talked to hundreds of women who’ve been stalked by a man. In Australia, one in five women will be stalked. And women are eight times more likely to be stalked by a man than by another woman.

    Often, the stalking is preceded by certain performances, such as the man repeatedly leaving flowers by the woman’s door. As one woman told me:

    We are so used to being told that ‘bad guys’ are men who are physically abusive. When a guy is ‘nice’, it’s hard to believe he’s dangerous. It’s easier for women to ignore the signals of danger, because they are told that he has to be a good guy because he’s doing all these things. He even used feminist buzzwords. He’d say, ‘I believe in equality. I’m a feminist myself’.

    Another described how a man kept telling her, “I’m in touch with my emotions. I wear my heart on my sleeve” – but that she had to escape the relationship after he threatened her.

    Blaming women for feelings of inadequacy

    The “nice guy” trope can create a narrative in which men feel victimised by women. As sociologist Michael Kimmel explains, this can lead to a sense of aggrieved entitlement, and men blaming women for their own feelings of inadequacy.

    I’ve witnessed this while working with male inmates in a private capacity. Working in prisons in Sweden, I spoke to dozens of men who were convicted sex offenders and/or who had killed their wives or ex-partners.

    All of them told me they reacted with violence when women rejected them romantically. None of the men I spoke to took responsibility for killing the woman. Instead, they justified their crimes and/or blamed the women.

    The ‘nice guy’ in pop culture

    Pop culture and media both have played a role in normalising the “nice guy” trope, which has now taken on different meanings in different groups – from misogynistic men in incel communities to women calling out men on dating apps.

    Traditionally, the romance movie genre has portrayed highly persistent men as charming, or even admirable. In films such as There’s Something About Mary (1998) and Groundhog Day (1993), the “nice guy” obsessively pursues the woman while ignoring her wish to be left alone.

    In these stories, obsessive behaviour is rewarded because the “nice guy” eventually gets the girl. In real life, the same behaviours can cross the line into harassment and stalking.

    A more realistic depiction comes from the 1993 film I Can Make You Love Me, also known as Stalking Laura. This film is based on the true story of mass murderer Richard Farley.

    Farley became obsessed with his coworker Laura Black in the 1980s. He love-bombed her, left her gifts such as letters and baked goods, called her every few hours, and even showed up to her apartment and her aerobics class. When he asked her out, Laura politely declined.

    Farley would go on to shoot Laura in the shoulder in a killing spree that left her and three others injured, and seven more people dead. This event prompted California to pass the first anti-stalking laws in the United States.

    Real-world consequences

    Another horrifying example of an entitled “nice guy” was Elliot Rodger. In 2014, the then 22-year-old used knives, guns and his car to murder six people and injure 13 near the University of California, Santa Barbara.

    Rodger described himself as a “supreme gentleman” and couldn’t understand why women wouldn’t have sex with him. In a chilling video posted before the attack, he said:

    I will slaughter every spoiled, stuck-up, blond slut I see inside there. All those girls I’ve desired so much, they would have all rejected me and looked down upon me as an inferior man if I ever made a sexual advance towards them while they throw themselves at these obnoxious brutes.

    More than ten years later, there’s no shortage of men who share Rodger’s victim mentality and violent sentiments. Yet there is a lack of research into how such attitudes can contribute to real-world harm.

    As masculinity studies theorists argue, these attitudes are not the product of individual pathology, but are a much larger problem linked to societal ideas about masculinity. They are created by sexist ideology in culture, and are spread through socialisation.

    Robert Farley and Elliot Rodger weren’t the first men, nor the last, to think they had entitlements over women just because they followed a social script of acting “nice”. If we can understand how this attitude grows and festers among men, we might be able to stop it at its start.

    Jamilla Rosdahl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From flowers to stalking: how ‘nice guy’ narratives can lead to male entitlement and violence against women – https://theconversation.com/from-flowers-to-stalking-how-nice-guy-narratives-can-lead-to-male-entitlement-and-violence-against-women-252523

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Biosecurity policies can be annoying – but a century of Antarctic data shows they work  

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Leihy, Ecologist, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research

    Visitors to Australia are often shocked at having to declare an apple or wooden item under our biosecurity policies. Biosecurity policies are used to keep out pest species and diseases. But they’re expensive to uphold and people can question their worth.

    The good news is, they work – and Antarctica’s strict biosecurity policies prove it.

    Under the web of agreements governing Antarctica, cargo must be checked for any sign of plants, seeds, insects and rodents. Visitors must ensure the items they bring are clean.

    In our new research, we analysed a century of data on how many species have been introduced to the icy continent and surrounding sub-Antarctic islands.

    Though there’s little human presence here, many species have been introduced and several have established – including rodents, aphids, and weedy plants – in a surprisingly short time. But across most sub-Antarctic islands, we found the rate of introduced species has remained steady, or slowed, after biosecurity policies were introduced, even as more humans arrived.

    The exception was the Antarctic continent itself, where species introductions are increasing. This is likely due to surging visitor numbers and inconsistent biosecurity efforts between different nations and tourist operators.

    Our work shows biosecurity policies work – if they’re followed.

    Biosecurity in the cold

    Antartica and sub-Antarctic islands such as Heard and McDonald Islands have an exceptional richness of species. Wandering albatrosses and emperor penguins live nowhere else. Some islands are home to meadows of megaherbs.

    Unfortunately, introduced species have had dramatic effects. Mice eat albatrosses alive. Midges entirely change the functioning of terrestrial systems. Weedy plants outcompete and displace unusual plants on several islands.

    Antarctic environments are particularly susceptible to introduced species. New species tend to have faster life cycles and are more tolerant of disturbance. Most indigenous species evolved without predators or competitors.

    As the climate heats up, introduced species get a boost. Warmer conditions make it easier for them to get their first foothold, and they do better with warmer climates than do the indigenous species.

    These vulnerabilities are why nations responsible for sub-Antarctic islands and those who jointly govern Antarctica through the Antarctic Treaty put strict biosecurity protocols in place from the 1990s onwards.

    These policies ban the deliberate introduction of new species and specify the measures visitors and cargo have to undergo to reduce the chance of new species being introduced accidentally.

    These protocols include cleaning equipment, clothing and cargo. In many cases, these policies also require eradication of any potentially damaging species if found.

    Is it worth it?

    All this takes time and money. To do it properly requires many hours of inspections and specific facilities, among other things. Ongoing research is also needed, to ensure the policies keep working.

    But eradication of species once established is often even more expensive. Costs are rising globally. Invasive species have cost Australia at least A$390 billion since the 1960s. Eradicating introduced rabbits, rats and mice from Australia’s Macquarie Island cost about A$25 million.

    So, are our biosecurity efforts worth the cost?

    Assessing the effectiveness of biosecurity policies is rare because it is difficult. To properly gauge effectiveness, you need data from before and after the policy came in. It’s also hard to pinpoint when a species made the jump to the cold; it’s harder to spot one new plant than a thriving population years after the first seeds took root.

    We believe our work solves these problems. We collected data on species arrivals across the Antarctic region and corrected for biases using new mathematical approaches that account for differences in survey effort over time.

    Most species introductions now happen by accident. Because introductions are closely tied to the numbers of visitors, we expected more species would arrive as visitor numbers grew. But on most sub-Antarctic islands, that didn’t happen. Species arrived at the same rate or more slowly than expected, even as more visitors came.

    In other words, the policies are working.

    Why is Antarctica the exception?

    Since 1998, biosecurity policies for the Antarctic continent haven’t managed to slow the rates of introductions.

    Newly introduced species are largely being found on the Antarctic Peninsula, where most tourists and scientists go. The peninsula has the mildest climate of the whole continent and is where Antarctica’s native flowering plants are found, as well as mosses, lichens and fungi.

    The new arrivals include annual bluegrass which displaces native plants. Also arriving are invertebrates, such as midges and springtails which can alter how nutrients are cycled in soil and shift other ecosystem functions.

    It’s not fully clear why biosecurity policies aren’t working as well on the continent as for the islands. Likely causes include inconsistencies in how biosecurity is policed by different nations, a rapidly warming climate and very rapidly growing numbers of people to the peninsula.

    What does this mean for the world?

    Introduced species are one of the largest environmental and economic challenges we face, according to an authoritative recent assessment.

    This may seem surprising. But the unchecked impact of species such as red fire ants, varroa mite and feral pigs cost Australian farmers billions each year. Prevention is usually better – and cheaper – than the cure.

    What our research shows is that biosecurity policies actually work to protect the environment and are likely to be cheaper than the cost of control or eradication. Introduced species now cost the global economy an estimated $423 billion annually.

    Society and decision-makers can see environmental regulations as a cost without a benefit. Being able to show the real advantages of these regulations is vital.

    Rachel Leihy works for the Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. This research was done as a part of the Australian Research Council funded program Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future.

    Melodie McGeoch receives funding from the Australian Research Council – SRIEAS Grant SR200100005 Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future.

    Steven Chown receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an Honorary life member of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

    – ref. Biosecurity policies can be annoying – but a century of Antarctic data shows they work   – https://theconversation.com/biosecurity-policies-can-be-annoying-but-a-century-of-antarctic-data-shows-they-work-252494

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New satellite data shows NZ’s major cities are sinking – meaning rising seas will affect them sooner

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jesse Kearse, Postdoctoral Researcher, Geophysics, Kyoto University

    Shutterstock/Jakub Maculewicz

    Rising seas are already affecting coastal communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. On a global average, the sea level is now 18 centimetres higher than it was in 1900, and the annual rate of increase has been accelerating to currently 4.4 millimetres per year.

    This may not seem much, but it is already amplifying the impact of storm and tidal surges. Over the coming decades and centuries, this will pose increasingly serious problems for all coastal communities.

    But this is not the end of our troubles. Some parts of New Zealand’s coastline are also sinking. In many New Zealand cities, shorelines are steadily subsiding, with growing impacts on coastal infrastructure.

    Our new research reveals where and how fast this is happening. We found the coastlines near all major cities in New Zealand are sinking a few millimetres each year, with some of the fastest rates in coastal suburbs of Christchurch, where the land is still adjusting to the impact of the 2011 earthquake.

    Relative increase in sea level

    Sea-level rise is happening globally because the ocean is expanding as it continues to warm and glaciers and polar ice sheets are melting.

    Meanwhile, land subsidence operates on regional or local scales, but it can potentially double or triple the effects of sea-level rise in certain places. This dual effect of rising seas and sinking land is know as relative sea-level rise and it gives coastal communities a more accurate projection of what they need to prepare for.

    To understand which parts of the coast are most at risk requires detailed and precise measurements of land subsidence. The key to this is to observe Earth from space.

    We have used a technique known as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). This involves the repeat acquisition of satellite radar images of the Earth’s surface, tied to very accurate global navigation satellite system measurements of ground stations.

    This builds on earlier work by the NZSeaRise project, which measured vertical land movement for every two kilometres of New Zealand’s coastline. Our study uses a significantly higher resolution (every ten metres in most places) and more recent datasets, highlighting previously missed parts of urban coastlines.

    Urban hotspots

    For instance, in Christchurch the previous NZSeaRise dataset showed very little subsidence at Southshore and New Brighton. The big differences in the new data are not due to the increase in spatial resolution, but because the rate of vertical land movement is very different from the time prior to the 2011 earthquake.

    Localised subsidence in these Christchurch suburbs is up to 8mm per year, among the fastest rates of urban subsidence we observed. These areas sit upon natural coastal sand dunes above the source area of the earthquake and the Earth’s crust is still responding to that sudden change in stress.

    This map shows vertical land movement (VLM) in Christchurch, highlighting areas that are sinking. The circles around the coastline show NZSeaRise estimates (2003-2011) and continous blue shading highlights new results (2018-2021).
    Jesse Kearse, CC BY-SA

    We have tracked vertical movement of the land with millimetre-scale precision for five major cities in New Zealand. The InSAR technique works particularly well in urban areas because the smooth surface of pavements, roads and buildings better reflects the satellite radar beam back into space where it is picked up by the orbiting satellite.

    This means the estimates of relative sea-level rise for these cities are close to or above 7mm per year. If sustained, this amounts to around 70cm of sea-level rise per century – enough to seriously threaten most sea defences.

    Our new satellite measurements provide a detailed picture of urban subsidence, even within single suburbs. It can vary by as much as 10mm per year between parts of a city, as this map of Dunedin and the Otago Harbour shows.

    This map shows vertical land movement (VLM) in Dunedin. The darker blue colours highlight parts of the city where land is sinking at a rate of 4mm per year or more.
    Jesse Kearse, CC BY-SA

    We found hotspots of very rapidly sinking regions. They tend to match areas of land that have been modified, particularly along the waterfront. During the 20th century, many acres of land were reclaimed from the ocean, and this new land is still compacting, creating an unstable base for the overlying infrastructure.

    One example of this is in Porirua Harbour, where a section of reclaimed land near the mouth of Porirua Stream is sinking at 3–5mm per year. This is more than double the average rate for Porirua’s coast.

    Rapidly sinking regions often match areas of land that have been modified or reclaimed, such as along the waterfront of Porirua Harbour.
    Jesse Kearse, from http://retrolens.nz, licensed by Land Information NZ, CC BY-SA

    Paradoxically, perhaps, it is only by looking back on our planet from outer space that we can begin to see with sufficient detail what is happening to the land in our own backyard.

    The good news is that we can use the results to identify coastlines that are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and plan accordingly for any future development. Our new measurements are just the first step in what must become a major effort to watch the ups and downs of our coastlines and urban areas.

    Jesse Kearse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New satellite data shows NZ’s major cities are sinking – meaning rising seas will affect them sooner – https://theconversation.com/new-satellite-data-shows-nzs-major-cities-are-sinking-meaning-rising-seas-will-affect-them-sooner-252881

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: MyMedicare promises better health care. But only 1 in 10 patients has signed up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jialing Lin, Research fellow, International Centre for Future Health Systems, UNSW Sydney

    Rose Marinelli/Shutterstock

    MyMedicare is a scheme that encourages patients to register with a regular GP practice to improve their health. But few patients have enrolled.

    Since its launch in October 2023, only about 10% of patients have signed up.

    The Albanese government’s 2023-24 budget allocated A$19.7 million over four years to implement MyMedicare. So if we are to get value for money from the scheme, we need to find out why patients are not signing up, and address any barriers to them doing so.

    Other countries have similar schemes, as we outline in recent research. Here’s what we can learn from these to boost uptake of MyMedicare in Australia.

    What is MyMedicare?

    MyMedicare is a voluntary patient registration scheme. Patients nominate a GP or GP practice as their preferred provider and see the same GP or health-care team over time, a concept known as “continuity of care”.

    Continuity of care is linked to earlier detection of health issues, better management of chronic (long-term) conditions, fewer avoidable hospital visits, and improved patient satisfaction.

    Patients registered for MyMedicare have longer telehealth consultations. People living in residential aged care have more regular visits from their GP. From July this year, GP practices may offer patients more support for their chronic diseases.

    There are also benefits for GP clinics that sign up for MyMedicare. They receive incentives to offer certain patients longer telehealth consultations. Practices also receive incentives to manage the health of registered aged care patients.

    These incentives help practices invest in improved services and resources. From July, this may include better chronic disease management and enhanced team-based care (for instance, better liaison between GPs and allied health workers as part of someone’s health team).

    MyMedicare comes with an extra boost for telehealth.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    How many patients have signed up?

    Since MyMedicare’s launch in 2023 until March 19 this year, more than 2.6 million patients have registered for MyMedicare, according to Department of Health and Aged Care statistics provided to The Conversation.

    That’s about 10% of Australia’s population. This raises concerns about how aware patients are of the scheme, how engaged they are with it, and possible barriers to registration.

    GP practices that provide services to patients who would benefit from the new longer telehealth services or provide care to people in aged care were encouraged to register those patients in MyMedicare as a priority. So perhaps other patients have yet to sign up.

    GP practices have been quicker to sign up. Since its launch, health department statistics provided to The Conversation show 6,469 practices had registered for MyMedicare until March 19 this year.

    That’s about 80% of GP practices in Australia.

    Who’s most likely to register?

    We don’t know which patient groups sign up for MyMedicare. The health department told The Conversation patients can provide details of their sex, location (such as metropolitan, regional, rural and remote areas), linguistic background, and disabilities when they sign up. But this is voluntary, and these data have only been available for collection since March 2024.

    However, here’s what we learned when we looked at other countries’ patient enrolment schemes:

    • men are less likely to enrol than women, and recent immigrants have significantly lower registration rates compared to long-term residents. These highlight potential barriers to access for certain populations

    • patients in suburban, rural or small urban areas have higher registration rates, whereas those in large metropolitan centres and lower socioeconomic groups register less

    • patients with mental illness or substance use disorders have lower registration rates, pointing to challenges in engaging vulnerable populations.

    Men are less likely to enrol than women.
    DC Studio/Shutterstock

    How do other countries do it?

    We also looked at how other countries set up their schemes to see what we can learn.

    New Zealand: high uptake through financial incentives

    New Zealand has successfully implemented a voluntary patient registration system by offering incentives to enrolled patients. These include lower co-payments for consultations and cheaper prescriptions.

    This approach encourages people to register with a general practice rather than a specific GP. Some 95% of the population was registered by January 2025.

    Quebec, Canada: tailored registration programs, but low uptake

    Quebec has several voluntary registration programs for different groups of patients. These include ones for family medicine, vulnerable patients and a general program.

    However, registration rate remains low, at 14.7-32.2%, depending on the program.

    British Columbia, Canada: incentive-driven registration

    British Columbia offers three voluntary registration programs – one for chronic diseases, another for complex care and a general program.

    These use “capitation funding”, where GPs receive payments based on the number of patients they care for.

    Participation rates vary widely across the three programs, with 45.5-79% of the population registered.

    The differences in registration rates across these systems highlight the importance of how schemes are designed and implemented.

    What can Australia learn?

    If MyMedicare is to improve access and continuity of care, targeted strategies – such as outreach for immigrants and lower-income groups, and better support for people with mental health issues – will be essential.

    Australia could also look to how countries with higher rates of patients signing up have designed their systems. This could include considering whether more financial incentives for patients to enrol is warranted, which has been successful in New Zealand.

    Jialing Lin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. MyMedicare promises better health care. But only 1 in 10 patients has signed up – https://theconversation.com/mymedicare-promises-better-health-care-but-only-1-in-10-patients-has-signed-up-253335

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Reform clock is ticking – the big policy challenges the next government must urgently address

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aruna Sathanapally, Grattan Institute

    The 2025 federal election coincides with a period of profound global uncertainty, as the Trump administration wreaks havoc on the free trade system and longstanding alliances.

    The events of recent months have underscored how, at each election, the voters in a democracy set their country on a path. Here in Australia, voters will be choosing whom to trust with tackling our challenges and making the most of the opportunities before us.

    These turbulent times internationally only reinforce the need for us to be clear-eyed about the challenges facing Australia, and where our strengths lie in addressing them.

    The big five challenges

    We see five overlapping domestic policy challenges that must be tackled by whoever wins the next election, to ensure prosperity for current and future generations.

    First, we must plan and deliver over the next 25 years the economic transformation that accompanies decarbonisation.

    Addressing climate change is not a task we can delay or abandon, but it will be neither easy nor cheap. The next government can either work to build a credible plan, to orient long-term investment in a renewable energy future, or leave a legacy for the next generation of even greater costs and unreliability, and missed opportunities.

    Second, we must increase the availability and affordability of housing in Australia. Housing is a fundamental human need, and when the housing system fails to deliver enough homes in the places people need and want to live, the consequences are both social and economic. In particular, our broken housing system sits at the centre of growing inequality in Australia.

    Third, as the structure of our economy changes, becoming less reliant on routine and manual labour, Australia must deepen its talent pools and boost productivity to meet the needs of our society and lift economic dynamism. We must improve our school systems, expand access to high-quality early childhood education and care, dismantle barriers in the labour market that prevent people from making the most of their skills and experience, and be rapid adopters of the best global practices and technology.

    Fourth, we are in the midst of the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation. An ageing population is placing increasing demands on public services, government budgets and our workforce. We need to get better at tackling chronic disease in our health system, and we need to shore-up our retirement and aged-care systems for the demographic change that we have long known is coming.

    Fifth, we cannot continue to have high expectations for public services and infrastructure, without raising the money to pay for them. Tax reform has sat in the too-hard basket for too long. In particular, income tax breaks for superannuation and housing have become too generous, and unfairly place the tax burden on younger, less wealthy taxpayers.

    And we need to implement sensible savings. Swingeing cuts may seem easy and appealing on the surface, but real savings will take more thinking than that: to make hospitals more efficient, to better target the NDIS, to get smarter in how we spend public money in procuring big infrastructure and defence projects.

    A position of strength

    None of these challenges is new: they were waiting for us as we emerged from the COVID crisis. Fortunately, we are not starting from scratch.

    In several areas, the federal government has made a start. But whoever forms government after the 2025 election must stay the course on difficult reforms while also finally confronting the reforms that neither side of politics has effectively tackled since the start of the century.

    Australia occupies a position of relative strength to tackle these challenges. We have a highly educated and skilled population, a more manageable fiscal position than many of our counterparts, stronger public institutions, and less polarisation in our politics.

    The reform clock is ticking

    Why, then, has reform proved so hard in Australia? Perhaps we have taken our strengths for granted, perhaps we have been content to leave problems for our future selves to solve. We cannot continue in this way.

    The fundamentals of Australia’s prosperity have been our success in opening our economy and society to the world, while maintaining a strong social safety net, and ensuring economic benefits are broadly shared and that each new generation sees opportunity to build a rewarding life. Failing to tackle the Big Five challenges above risks unpicking these foundations.

    Vested interests have been successful in thwarting reforms in the public interest for decades in Australia. Or perhaps the politics of opposition have proved so successful as to kill the prospect for bipartisan agreement on necessary, evidence-backed change.

    Equally, it falls to the media to hold politicians to account over the facts and evidence that support their claims. Politicians should be firmly tested on what they propose to do with the power they seek, and how they intend to advance the interests of all Australians. This is one of the most important safeguards against empty promises that will do nothing to make us better off, or even take us backwards.

    The reform clock is ticking. The winner of the 2025 election will have to get to work, quickly, on building a better Australia.

    The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website

    – ref. Reform clock is ticking – the big policy challenges the next government must urgently address – https://theconversation.com/reform-clock-is-ticking-the-big-policy-challenges-the-next-government-must-urgently-address-251343

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Friend, tutor, doctor, lover: why AI systems need different rules for different roles

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian D Earp, Associate Director, Yale-Hastings Program in Ethics and Health Policy, University of Oxford

    Cybermagician / Shutterstock

    “I’m really not sure what to do anymore. I don’t have anyone I can talk to,” types a lonely user to an AI chatbot. The bot responds: “I’m sorry, but we are going to have to change the topic. I won’t be able to engage in a conversation about your personal life.”

    Is this response appropriate? The answer depends on what relationship the AI was designed to simulate.

    Different relationships have different rules

    AI systems are taking up social roles that have traditionally been the province of humans. More and more we are seeing AI systems acting as tutors, mental health providers and even romantic partners. This increasing ubiquity requires a careful consideration of the ethics of AI to ensure that human interests and welfare are protected.

    For the most part, approaches to AI ethics have considered abstract ethical notions, such as whether AI systems are trustworthy, sentient or have agency.

    However, as we argue with colleagues in psychology, philosophy, law, computer science and other key disciplines such as relationship science, abstract principles alone won’t do. We also need to consider the relational contexts in which human–AI interactions take place.

    What do we mean by “relational contexts”? Simply put, different relationships in human society follow different norms.

    How you interact with your doctor differs from how you interact with your romantic partner or your boss. These relationship-specific patterns of expected behaviour – what we call “relational norms” – shape our judgements of what’s appropriate in each relationship.

    What is deemed appropriate behaviour of a parent towards her child, for instance, differs from what is appropriate between business colleagues. In the same way, appropriate behaviour for an AI system depends upon whether that system is acting as a tutor, a health care provider, or a love interest.

    Human morality is relationship-sensitive

    Human relationships fulfil different functions. Some are grounded in care, such as that between parent and child or close friends. Others are more transactional, such as those between business associates. Still others may be aimed at securing a mate or the maintenance of social hierarchies.

    These four functions — care, transaction, mating and hierarchy — each solve different coordination challenges in relationships.

    Care involves responding to others’ needs without keeping score — like one friend who helps another during difficult times. Transaction ensures fair exchanges where benefits are tracked and reciprocated — think of neighbours trading favours.

    Our relationships with other people fulfil different basic functions – and observe different norms of behaviour.
    PintoArt / Shutterstock

    Mating governs romantic and sexual interactions, from casual dating to committed partnerships. And hierarchy structures interactions between people with different levels of authority over one another, enabling effective leadership and learning.

    Every relationship type combines these functions differently, creating distinct patterns of expected behaviour. A parent–child relationship, for instance, is typically both caring and hierarchical (at least to some extent), and is generally expected not to be transactional — and definitely not to involve mating.

    Research from our labs shows that relational context does affect how people make moral judgements. An action may be deemed wrong in one relationship but permissible, or even good, in another.

    Of course, just because people are sensitive to relationship context when making moral judgements doesn’t meant they should be. Still, the very fact that they are is important to take into account in any discussion of AI ethics or design.

    Relational AI

    As AI systems take up more and more social roles in society, we need to ask: how does the relational context in which humans interact with AI systems impact ethical considerations?

    When a chatbot insists upon changing the subject after its human interaction partner reports feeling depressed, the appropriateness of this action hinges in part on the relational context of the exchange.

    If the chatbot is serving in the role of a friend or romantic partner, then clearly the response is inappropriate – it violates the relational norm of care, which is expected for such relationships. If, however, the chatbot is in the role of a tutor or business advisor, then perhaps such a response is reasonable or even professional.

    It gets complicated, though. Most interactions with AI systems today occur in a commercial context – you have to pay to access the system (or engage with a limited free version that pushes you to upgrade to a paid version).

    But in human relationships, friendship is something you don’t usually pay for. In fact, treating a friend in a “transactional” manner will often lead to hurt feelings.

    When an AI simulates or serves in a care-based role, like friend or romantic partner, but ultimately the user knows she is paying a fee for this relational “service” — how will that affect her feelings and expectations? This is the sort of question we need to be asking.

    What this means for AI designers, users and regulators

    Regardless of whether one believes ethics should be relationship-sensitive, the fact most people act as if it is should be taken seriously in the design, use and regulation of AI.

    Developers and designers of AI systems should consider not just abstract ethical questions (about sentience, for example), but relationship-specific ones.

    Is a particular chatbot fulfilling relationship-appropriate functions? Is the mental health chatbot sufficiently responsive to the user’s needs? Is the tutor showing an appropriate balance of care, hierarchy and transaction?

    Users of AI systems should be aware of potential vulnerabilities tied to AI use in particular relational contexts. Becoming emotionally dependent upon a chatbot in a caring context, for example, could be bad news if the AI system cannot sufficiently deliver on the caring function.

    Regulatory bodies would also do well to consider relational contexts when developing governance structures. Instead of adopting broad, domain-based risk assessments (such as deeming AI use in education “high risk”), regulatory agencies might consider more specific relational contexts and functions in adjusting risk assessments and developing guidelines.

    As AI becomes more embedded in our social fabric, we need nuanced frameworks that recognise the unique nature of human-AI relationships. By thinking carefully about what we expect from different types of relationships — whether with humans or AI — we can help ensure these technologies enhance rather than diminish our lives.

    Brian D Earp receives funding from Google DeepMind.

    Sebastian Porsdam Mann receives funding from a Novo Nordisk Foundation Grant for a scientifically independent International Collaborative Bioscience Innovation & Law Programme (Inter-CeBIL programme – grant no. NNF23SA0087056).

    Simon Laham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Friend, tutor, doctor, lover: why AI systems need different rules for different roles – https://theconversation.com/friend-tutor-doctor-lover-why-ai-systems-need-different-rules-for-different-roles-252302

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kids’ physical activity in child care is essential — how an online course equips educators to lead the way

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Myranda Hawthorne, PhD Student, Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Western University

    Physical activity — primarily in the form of active play — promotes young children’s physical, mental, emotional and social health. It can also influence how active people will be later in life.

    It’s recommended that pre-school children, aged three to four years, engage in at least three hours of physical activity per day, and that should include one hour of high-intensity, heart-pumping movement. Sedentary screen time should also be limited to less than one hour per day.

    Despite this, many children in Canada and around the world do not meet recommended levels of physical activity and engage in far more sedentary screen time than recommended.

    Early childhood educators (ECEs) play many important roles in helping young children grow and learn, and one of these roles is encouraging engagement in physical activity. Our research in the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab at Western University focuses on promoting physical activity of young children.

    A large part of our research involves working with ECEs to create active child-care settings, where children are supported and encouraged to engage in the physical activity they need for their development. We believe providing physical activity training opportunities for ECEs is an essential first step towards reaching that goal.

    Why kids aren’t moving

    There are many barriers to promoting physical activity in child-care settings, including prioritization of academic outcomes and limited space or equipment.

    For ECEs, the lack of formal training on the integral role of physical activity on children’s learning, health and development may present a key barrier.

    Only 32 per cent of students in early childhood education programs in Canada have taken a course related to physical activity in their post-secondary degree.

    Furthermore, ECEs across Canada have reported a lack of knowledge and confidence in their ability to incorporate physical activity opportunities into daily programming in child-care settings. This is the case even while ECEs have expressed interest in pursuing more training on these important subjects.

    The TEACH course

    We created the TEACH e-learning course (TEACH stands for Training EArly CHildhood educators in physical activity) to help bridge this gap.

    This course aims to educate ECEs on the important role of physical activity in child development, and to provide them with the knowledge and confidence to implement physical activity within child-care environments.

    The TEACH course was developed with both early childhood education experts and physical activity specialists to create comprehensive and relevant course content in four online modules. These include instructive videos, practical tips and “knowledge checks” (encouraging self-reflection on current knowledge and practices) for promoting physical activity and limiting sedentary behaviour in child-care environments.

    Important topics like outdoor and risky play are also covered in the course. It strives to overcome some of the other barriers to physical activity promotion in child-care settings, including suggestions for incorporating movement with limited space or equipment, as well as how to combine physical activities with other important skills like literacy and numeracy.

    The TEACH course is endorsed by the Canada Child Care Federation as a resource which can be used for practising ECEs to help fulfil their annual professional development activity requirements.

    Real-world results show promise

    The course has been tested with 200 practising ECEs and 300 ECE students across Canada, and has been shown to increase ECEs’ knowledge, confidence and intentions to incorporate physical activity during the child-care day.

    Not only that, but the positive changes in self-efficacy and confidence were sustained up to three months after completing the training. This shows that the e-learning course can have a lasting impact.

    Both practising ECEs and those in training benefited from the TEACH course. Practicing ECEs, who could immediately apply their new knowledge and skills to their everyday work, maintained these gains more effectively when compared to the ECEs still in training.



    Read more:
    Outdoor play in shorter, more frequent windows can boost physical activity in early learning settings

    Expanding and integrating the TEACH course

    The online format of the TEACH course increases accessibility of the course, as ECEs can work through the content in their own time, from anywhere. The online format also provides promise for the feasibility of expanding the course to a wider audience to be a cost-effective way to train a large number of ECEs, without much strain on resources.

    Members of the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab have translated the TEACH course into French (TEACH-FR). They’re currently testing its impact on francophone ECEs across the country, to ensure this resource can eventually be made available to both English- and French-speaking ECEs across Canada.

    Children’s engagement in physical activity and healthy movement while at child care matters — and can impact their health and development. The TEACH course can help improve educators’ knowledge and confidence in promoting physical activity opportunities in child-care settings, better equipping them for this challenge.

    By providing training for ECEs on the importance of physical activity behaviours, as well as how to effectively program daily active play opportunities, we can help children to move more during their time in child care. This helps set the stage for future healthy active lives.

    Myranda Hawthorne receives funding from the Ontario Graduate Scholarship.

    Sophie M Phillips receives funding from Children’s Health Research Institute and Mitacs.

    Trish Tucker receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Children’s Health Research Institute.

    – ref. Kids’ physical activity in child care is essential — how an online course equips educators to lead the way – https://theconversation.com/kids-physical-activity-in-child-care-is-essential-how-an-online-course-equips-educators-to-lead-the-way-251418

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Federal election: Conservatives and Liberals are targeting different generations and geographies online

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Philip Mai, Co-director and Senior Researcher, Social Media Lab, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Amid a Canadian federal election campaign focused in part on the country’s sovereignty, Canada’s two leading political parties are taking sharply different approaches to their advertising strategies. A close analysis of digital ad impressions on Facebook and Instagram reveals that the battleground is not just ideological, but demographic and geographic.

    While both the Conservative and Liberal parties invest ad dollars in Canada’s most populous provinces, their strategies reveal a deeper story: Conservatives bet on Gen Z and Millennial voters, while Liberals double down on older voters and those in Francophone Canada.

    We first observed these divergent strategies as part of an analysis conducted by the Ted Rogers School of Management Social Media Lab at Toronto Metropolitan University. As part of our Election Transparency and Accountability initiative, we examined Canadian political ad spending on Meta-owned platforms Facebook and Instagram, using PoliDashboard, the open-source platform we developed.

    We conducted a detailed analysis of the ad impression data for the campaigns of all major parties. Here, we focus our findings on online ads purchased by the Liberal and Conservative parties, the current frontrunners in the polls.

    Conservatives woo younger voters

    Based on impressions data from Facebook and Instagram during March 23-30, the week after the election announced, there was a clear generational divide in digital outreach. The Conservatives devoted much of their messaging to Canadians under 45, while the Liberals appeared to focus more on those 55 and older.

    A significant portion of Conservative Party Facebook and Instagram ad impressions came from men aged 25 to 34, who accounted for 16 per cent of all Conservative ad views. Additional impressions came from men aged 18 to 24, women aged 25 to 34, and women aged 35 to 44; each of these groups made up 10 per cent of the total impressions. This suggests an apparent effort by the Conservatives to connect with Gen Z and millennial voters.

    In contrast, Liberal ads garnered higher impressions among older demographics, with women aged 65 and over accounting for the largest share (21 per cent) of total impressions. Women aged 55 to 64 and men over 65 each contributed 12 per cent of Liberal ad impressions. This distribution points to a strategic emphasis on older voters, a group known for reliably turning out on election day.

    The estimated percentage of Meta ad impressions for Conservative and Liberals by demographic groups.
    (PoliDashboard/Social Media Lab), CC BY

    While traditional wisdom suggests that young adults favour progressive politics and parties, public polling suggests that young Canadians are increasingly embracing conservatism amid a housing and affordability crisis. The Conservatives appear poised to channel young peoples’ economic dissatisfaction into votes, using online advertising to reach them.

    Meanwhile, the Liberals appear to be consolidating support among those who have a longer history of voting, especially older women, who represent the largest age and gender cohort that is likely to vote for the party. It’s a tale of two electorates, and two very different strategies for winning.

    Impression data alone doesn’t confirm explicit age or gender targeting, nor does it guarantee support. Sometimes, a demographic simply has more affinity for a party’s content, leading to more impressions. These numbers can reflect both how parties aim their ads and how voters gravitate toward what resonates with them most.

    Regional divides

    The differences between the parties extend beyond age and gender, and into geographic territory. Both campaigns prioritize ad spending in Canada’s most populous provinces — British Columbia, Ontario and Québec — but the way they distribute their focus tells its own story.

    The Conservatives receive a larger share of their ad impressions from British Columbia, with 17 per cent of their total ad impressions; in comparison, the Liberals received just 11 per cent. The contrast is even sharper in Ontario, where 54 per cent of all Conservative ad impressions are concentrated, versus only 31 per cent for the Liberals.

    This difference is likely a deliberate strategic targeting tactic. Ontario, home to 122 federal ridings (with about 36 per cent of all seats in the House of Commons), is a pivotal battleground. The Conservatives’ strategy appears to hinge on flipping key seats in the province, particularly in suburban and outer suburban areas that could decide the election. Combined with their reach with younger voters, this approach signals an all-in effort to gain ground where it counts most.

    The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is doubling down in Québec — one of the largest and most culturally distinct provinces in the country — and where the Liberals are clearly on the offensive. Twenty-nine per cent of Liberal ad impressions are located in the province, compared to just three per cent for the Conservatives.

    Québec has long been a stronghold for the Liberals, particularly in urban areas like Montréal. While the province can be volatile and deeply influenced by local issues, the Liberals’ heavy advertising push suggests they’re working to defend the 33 seats they currently hold and possibly add a couple of new seats.

    Two parties, two visions

    Liberals and Conservatives are both vocally aligned in their repudiation of United States President Donald Trump’s frequent allusion to Canada becoming the “51st state,” a sentiment shared by an overwhelming majority of the Canadian public.

    With external pressure mounting from Trump’s tariff threats and democratic norms being tested across the border, this election isn’t just about policies or parties: it’s about protecting Canada’s independence, values and place in the world.

    However, the trends we’ve identified paint a picture of two distinct campaigns playing to different strengths and chasing different voters. The Conservatives are betting on young, digitally engaged Canadians, especially in Ontario. The Liberals are reinforcing their support among older voters, and looking to hold ground in Québec, where cultural identity and party loyalty still carry significant weight.

    Of course, ad impressions are only one part of the equation. Factors like grassroots efforts, candidate appeal and regional dynamics also play a major role. Still, the ad impression numbers provide a unique glimpse into each campaign’s strategy, and reveal the part of Canada each party believes it must win over.

    Philip Mai receives funding from the Department of Canadian Heritage Digital Citizen Contribution Program.

    Anatoliy Gruzd receives funding from the Department of Canadian Heritage Digital Citizen Contribution Program.

    William Hollingshead does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Federal election: Conservatives and Liberals are targeting different generations and geographies online – https://theconversation.com/federal-election-conservatives-and-liberals-are-targeting-different-generations-and-geographies-online-253607

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kids’ physical activity in child care is essential — how an online course equips educators to lead this

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Myranda Hawthorne, PhD Student, Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Western University

    Physical activity — primarily in the form of active play — promotes young children’s physical, mental, emotional and social health. It can also influence how active people will be later in life.

    It’s recommended that pre-school children, aged three to four years, engage in at least three hours of physical activity per day, and that should include one hour of high-intensity, heart-pumping movement. Sedentary screen time should also be limited to less than one hour per day.

    Despite this, many children in Canada and around the world do not meet recommended levels of physical activity and engage in far more sedentary screen time than recommended.

    Early childhood educators (ECEs) play many important roles in helping young children grow and learn, and one of these roles is encouraging engagement in physical activity. Our research in the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab at Western University focuses on promoting physical activity of young children.

    A large part of our research involves working with ECEs to create active child-care settings, where children are supported and encouraged to engage in the physical activity they need for their development. We believe providing physical activity training opportunities for ECEs is an essential first step towards reaching that goal.

    Why kids aren’t moving

    There are many barriers to promoting physical activity in child-care settings, including prioritization of academic outcomes and limited space or equipment.

    For ECEs, the lack of formal training on the integral role of physical activity on children’s learning, health and development may present a key barrier.

    Only 32 per cent of students in early childhood education programs in Canada have taken a course related to physical activity in their post-secondary degree.

    Furthermore, ECEs across Canada have reported a lack of knowledge and confidence in their ability to incorporate physical activity opportunities into daily programming in child-care settings. This is the case even while ECEs have expressed interest in pursuing more training on these important subjects.

    The TEACH course

    We created the TEACH e-learning course (TEACH stands for Training EArly CHildhood educators in physical activity) to help bridge this gap.

    This course aims to educate ECEs on the important role of physical activity in child development, and to provide them with the knowledge and confidence to implement physical activity within child-care environments.

    The TEACH course was developed with both early childhood education experts and physical activity specialists to create comprehensive and relevant course content in four online modules. These include instructive videos, practical tips and “knowledge checks” (encouraging self-reflection on current knowledge and practices) for promoting physical activity and limiting sedentary behaviour in child-care environments.

    Important topics like outdoor and risky play are also covered in the course. It strives to overcome some of the other barriers to physical activity promotion in child-care settings, including suggestions for incorporating movement with limited space or equipment, as well as how to combine physical activities with other important skills like literacy and numeracy.

    The TEACH course is endorsed by the Canada Child Care Federation as a resource which can be used for practising ECEs to help fulfil their annual professional development activity requirements.

    Real-world results show promise

    The course has been tested with 200 practising ECEs and 300 ECE students across Canada, and has been shown to increase ECEs’ knowledge, confidence and intentions to incorporate physical activity during the child-care day.

    Not only that, but the positive changes in self-efficacy and confidence were sustained up to three months after completing the training. This shows that the e-learning course can have a lasting impact.

    Both practising ECEs and those in training benefited from the TEACH course. Practicing ECEs, who could immediately apply their new knowledge and skills to their everyday work, maintained these gains more effectively when compared to the ECEs still in training.



    Read more:
    Outdoor play in shorter, more frequent windows can boost physical activity in early learning settings

    Expanding and integrating the TEACH course

    The online format of the TEACH course increases accessibility of the course, as ECEs can work through the content in their own time, from anywhere. The online format also provides promise for the feasibility of expanding the course to a wider audience to be a cost-effective way to train a large number of ECEs, without much strain on resources.

    Members of the Child Health and Physical Activity Lab have translated the TEACH course into French (TEACH-FR). They’re currently testing its impact on francophone ECEs across the country, to ensure this resource can eventually be made available to both English- and French-speaking ECEs across Canada.

    Children’s engagement in physical activity and healthy movement while at child care matters — and can impact their health and development. The TEACH course can help improve educators’ knowledge and confidence in promoting physical activity opportunities in child-care settings, better equipping them for this challenge.

    By providing training for ECEs on the importance of physical activity behaviours, as well as how to effectively program daily active play opportunities, we can help children to move more during their time in child care. This helps set the stage for future healthy active lives.

    Myranda Hawthorne receives funding from the Ontario Graduate Scholarship.

    Sophie M Phillips receives funding from Children’s Health Research Institute and Mitacs.

    Trish Tucker receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Children’s Health Research Institute.

    – ref. Kids’ physical activity in child care is essential — how an online course equips educators to lead this – https://theconversation.com/kids-physical-activity-in-child-care-is-essential-how-an-online-course-equips-educators-to-lead-this-251418

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Dutton backs down on working-from-home crackdown after outcry threatens to cost votes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Peter Dutton has raised the white flag on his controversial attempt to force Canberra public servants back into the office, with the opposition now saying there will be no change in current arrangements.

    The shadow minister for the public service, Jane Hume, said: “We have listened, and understand that flexible work, including working from home, is part of getting the best out of any workforce”.

    The Coalition’s public service policy, released Sunday, says a Dutton government will “support flexible working arrangements for the public service, including working from home, by respecting existing flexible working arrangements, and enshrining them in future agreements.

    “There will be no mandated minimum number of days for public servants to work in the office.”

    Originally the Coalition wanted to get public servants back into the office five days a week, with Hume saying they had shown a “lack of respect for the work that went into earning the taxes the spend”.

    But on Sunday, Hume said, “Many professional men and women in the Commonwealth public service are benefiting from flexible working arrangements, including working from home, which allow them to make valuable contributions to serving Australians.

    “We know the importance of flexible work for many Australians, and have always supported the private sector making its own decisions on flexible work arrangements.”

    The move to try to return the public servants to the office has been a bugbear for the opposition from the start. Dutton landed in further trouble when he suggested women who were adversely affected by the policy could share jobs.

    Many voters feared if the return-to-the-office policy was introduced for public service workers, it could quickly lead to more pressure in the private sector. Many private employers have been trying to limit work-from-home arrangements.

    Working from home has become particularly entrenched since the pandemic, and the Liberals’ hard line threatened to lose them votes widely, especially among women.

    Dutton has progressively been qualifying and walking back the opposition’s proposal. Now, it’s been ditched completely.

    The Coalition’s public service policy would reduce the federal public service by 41,000 jobs over five years, while protecting frontline services and national security positions.

    Penny Wong paints Dutton as a ‘risk’ in an uncertain world

    The Liberals like to see national security issues as one of their strong suits. But Labor – thanks to US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs – is now boldly casting Dutton as posing a risk to Australia in a changing, uncertain world.

    Foreign Minister Penny Wong on Sunday described the opposition leader as stubborn, arrogant and always believing he knows best.

    “That leads him to make bad calls,” Wong told the ABC. “You see that in his stubborn insistence on a deal with President Trump at whatever cost. You see that in a reckless and risky linking of defence into this trade dispute.

    “What this showed us was this was a man who makes bad calls and this is a man who is a risk to this country when we face these uncertain times.”

    Penny Wong on Insiders on Sunday.

    Dutton has insisted he would have more chance of winning an exemption from US tariffs than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    Trying to make his point, he was loose in his language last week. Notably, he said one of the things he would invoke was our defence relationship with the US.

    This was immediately interpreted as a threat. Later it was clarified he meant offering something positive to the US. But in an election campaign, the clarification seldom catches up with the original statement.

    Meanwhile, former Prime Minister John Howard weighed in to say the Australian-American defence relationship should never be brought into such a negotiation.

    Albanese is also saying the government will try to change Trump’s mind about applying tariffs to Australia. Like Dutton, he would have Australia’s critical minerals in the negotiating mix, although exactly how is not clear.

    The Liberals say if Dutton became PM he’d visit Washington within 60 days. There’d be a lot of pressure on the new prime minister to get a deal.

    If Labor is returned, Albanese would no doubt make an effort. But one suspects when push came to shove, he’d be reluctant to cede much, given the direct hit from the 10% tariff on Australian exports is relatively mild.

    The 2025 Liberal Party is a narrow congregation

    Petro Georgiou, one of the Liberals’ high-profile backbench moderates during the Howard years, died last week. His death reminded people – if they needed reminding – that the Liberal Party is a very different beast these days.

    Howard talked about the party being a “broad church”, embracing both conservatives and moderates. Howard, himself, of course, was no moderate but there were a number of small-“l” liberals with strong voices in his government – among them Robert Hill, John Fahey (former NSW premier), and Michael Wooldridge.

    While some powerful moderates were in the tent, others were kicking up the sand around it from the backbench. Prominent among them was Georgiou, a former adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser. He and colleagues took on Howard over various issues, especially on refugees.

    Fast forward to the Abbott government and, despite Tony Abbott’s conservatism, moderates were prominent: Julie Bishop, Christopher Pyne, Malcolm Turnbull, George Brandis.

    One significant reason for the important place the moderates had in the past was the nature of the Liberal Party. Its strongholds were affluent, urban areas, where voters were above average in income and education.

    But from Howard’s time on, Liberal leaders increasingly turned their eyes elsewhere. Howard had his “battlers”, and pursued voters from the right in Queensland. Abbott went after his “tradies”. Dutton is looking to outer suburbia to make his gains.

    Turnbull, the only moderate among the last four Liberal leaders, has, ironically, undermined the moderates. His trenchant criticisms of subsequent leaders have given many small-“l” liberal voters permission to vote teal.

    Last election, the teals dispatched several moderate Liberals, including Josh Frydenberg, who lost to independent Monique Ryan in Georgiou’s old seat of Kooyong. (Frydenberg hadn’t started out as a moderate, but effectively became one.) Other moderates, most notably Simon Birmingham, have exited politics before or at this election.

    One of Georgiou’s strongest allies back in the day was Victorian MP Russell Broadbent. Broadbent, who was also close to Turnbull, lost preselection for his seat of Monash and defected to the crossbench in 2023. He’s now running in Monash as an independent against the new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred (whose father was in parliament).

    In Monash, the Liberals don’t just have Broadbent snapping at their heels, but a teal candidate, as well. Broadbent says his old party should be glad he’s in the contest.

    “The teal would have won it otherwise,” he claims. The Liberals consider the seat pretty safe, but they’ll be thankful he is giving them his preferences.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Dutton backs down on working-from-home crackdown after outcry threatens to cost votes – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-dutton-backs-down-on-working-from-home-crackdown-after-outcry-threatens-to-cost-votes-253732

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 4 actions to support a sustainable democracy: No heroism required

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Wolfgang Linden, Professor Emeritus in Clinical and Health Psychology, University of British Columbia

    The media make an urgent case that democracy is threatened and autocrats are gaining ground. Democracy fatigue is in large part attributable to an inherently slow process, requiring many compromises and engagement by citizens. I argue that we are not helpless and offer action strategies to make the effort required to maintain democracy more palatable.

    As a researcher in psychology, I discovered (as have others) that the basic principles driving human behaviour are remarkably similar across a wide range of domains. They include child development, social psychology, psychotherapy and also politics. Now, as an emeritus professor, I am applying this knowledge to the wider-reaching application of ways to strengthen democracy.

    Using research-based and realistic views of the degree of control we have over politics, I propose four actions for individuals in support of strengthening democracy.

    1. Make voting social and celebratory

    A yardstick of a healthy democracy is election participation, which has dropped over time and hovers around two-thirds of eligible voters, with slightly higher rates in Canada than in the United States. Human beings are by nature social and seek company, and that alone is a perfect reason to go voting together with family and friends; make it an event.

    We know that couples go voting together and thus have greater participation rates than singles. Also, efforts to mobilize reluctant voters have possible spillover effects to other hesitant voters in their nearby environment. Lastly, it makes especially good sense to engage any first-time eligible voter because starting a voting habit early builds habitual voting. You could even encourage this first-time voter to get a (paid) job in the polling station!

    2. Reframe voting probabilities

    Sentiments like “my vote counts for little” are common. Nevertheless, we often see cliff-hanger results where tiny pools of votes count a lot.

    In 2024 in British Columbia, for example, three out of 93 races showed the two leading parties apart by fewer than 225 votes. One of these battles was ultimately won with a 22-vote difference, which really mattered because it was the one seat needed to swing the entire election towards winning a majority in the legislature.

    3. Use the word ‘us,’ challenge use of ‘they’

    Some politicians use fearmongering as a deliberate strategy and label non-supporters or people who differ from them as dangerous. “They” get blamed for the world’s ills, and can be excluded, or worse.

    When people around you overdo the divisiveness, ask them who are “they” and in what ways are they really different? Ultimately, when studied worldwide, all of “us” seek physical safety, supportive social networks, and stable, decent-paying jobs. We hope for fairness and want to support our families.

    Also, when dealing with issues like pollution, for example, remember that dirty air and water or radioactive waste don’t care about politically defined borders. They are all “our” garbage and “our” problem.

    4. How to shift from ‘they’ to ‘we’

    One proposition to help shift from “they” to “we” is to engage in new hobbies that excite you but involve people who are predictably unlike you. If you are a desk jockey by day, you might meet people with very different backgrounds when you join a hiking group or a woodworking co-op.

    Once you build this bridge and better understand others’ worlds, it becomes easier to work on solutions for joint social problems. At the workplace, hiring people with very diverse expertise has been shown to lead to more creative and satisfactory solutions than by drawing experts from a narrow pool.

    Also, by seeking consensus with others, you strengthen your own conflict-resolution skills. They can then be used in other places like marriage, condominium self-government, workplace politics or in holding groups of friends together.

    Yet another way of actively adopting the idea of “us” is to join advocacy groups that work on topics important to you and your community. Participedia is a global platform for anyone interested in public participation and democratic innovation. They have explored hundreds of organizations in 159 countries.

    Bottom line, neither heroic behaviour nor exceptional courage is required to engage in these readily available building blocks of a sustainable democracy.

    Wolfgang Linden is affiliated with Council of Canadians, Fair Vote Canada; both not for profit, not aligned with a political party

    – ref. 4 actions to support a sustainable democracy: No heroism required – https://theconversation.com/4-actions-to-support-a-sustainable-democracy-no-heroism-required-248748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 tips from an expert for choosing a self-help book that will actually work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Joanna Pozzulo, Chancellor’s Professor, Psychology, Carleton University

    With over 15,000 self-help books published yearly, sifting through so many books can be challenging. (Shutterstock)

    The wellness industry is one of the fastest growing markets, with an estimated global value of US$6.3 trillion in 2023. Gen Z and millennials are driving much of this growth, spending more on wellness products and services than older generations.

    The challenge, however, is that the wellness industry has few guardrails, allowing social media influencers and media personalities to position themselves as experts on well-being — sometimes without scientific backing.

    In a space where personal opinions and untested strategies are often presented as facts, it can be difficult to distinguish between helpful guidance and misleading information.

    Self-help books and bibliotherapy

    One form of self-help that has gained attention is bibliotherapy, which uses books to support well-being. If you’re looking to improve your well-being, you may find yourself at your local bookstore or library scouring the shelves for a self-help book.

    The self-help category is one of the largest non-fiction book categories. But not all self-help books contain strategies that are actually tested to determine their efficacy.

    With over 15,000 self-help books published yearly in the United States alone, sifting through so many books can be challenging.

    As a professor of psychology and founder of a book club that selects evidence-based books on well-being and self-improvement, I identify self-help books that rely on research rather than personal opinions or commercialized wellness trends.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

    Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    5 tips for choosing self-help books

    Here are five key tips for choosing self-help books that are grounded in reliable evidence:

    1. Consider the author’s credentials

    Check the qualifications of an author before assuming their book is evidence-based. Keep in mind that writing a book doesn’t qualify an author as an expert.

    Some self-help books are based on personal experiences rather than scientific research, and while lived experience can be valuable, it is not the same as strategies that have been tested to determine their efficacy.

    Look for authors with academic credentials, like a PhD or doctor of medicine from a reputable school, rather than those claiming expertise solely through personal experience.

    Many professional writers simply summarize existing research rather having conducted the research they are writing about. This can sometimes lead to oversimplification or misrepresentation of scientific findings.

    A quick online search can help determine whether an author has the necessary expertise to offer credible, science-based advice.

    The self-help category is one of the largest non-fiction book categories.
    (Shutterstock)

    2. Don’t judge a book by its popularity

    Just because a book is a bestseller or endorsed by celebrities doesn’t mean it’s grounded in science or evidence-based. Unlike academic research, which undergoes peer review before publication, self-help books are not always vetted for accuracy.

    A book’s success may be driven by marketing, emotional appeal or trendy ideas rather than solid scientific evidence.

    3. Consider where a book is shelved

    Bookstores and libraries categorize self-help books in a variety of sections, including health, wellness, well-being and new age. While some books in these categories are evidence-based, you might consider looking under the science and nature section instead.

    Exploring beyond traditional self-help sections can increase the likelihood of you finding books based on credible, scientific evidence.

    4. Be open to different topics

    Self-improvement is not limited to a single aspect of life. Well-being is a multifaceted construct with some experts including nine or more dimensions, including but not limited to physical, emotional, social, intellectual, spiritual, financial, environmental, occupational and cultural.

    When searching for a self-help book, consider exploring a well-being dimension that you may not know much about to expand your knowledge. This can contribute to a more well-rounded sense of personal development. Or, consider a topic that you want to know more about from a scientific perspective.

    You might consider looking for wellness books outside the health, wellness, well-being and new age categories.
    (Shutterstock)

    5. Think critically about what you read

    Even evidence-based books may report findings that are surprising or contradictory. If you read something that seems contrary in a book, seek out additional sources to verify the claims for yourself.

    The most credible self-help books will include a list of references to original studies that allow you to verify claims for yourself and draw your own conclusions. The extra-benefit of these references is that they can also serve as a gateway to additional resources on the topic.

    A pathway to better health and well-being

    Reading offers a number of benefits for well-being, including helping cognitive function, reducing stress, improving sleep quality and quantity, improving mood, and decreasing blood pressure.

    Although reading is often considered a solitary activity, it can also be a way to connect with others. Being part of a community can help reduce social isolation, decrease loneliness and increase connectedness.

    Book clubs, in particular, can provide a way for you to reap the benefits of reading and community. I created the the Reading for Well-Being Community Book Club at Carleton University.

    I select evidence-based books on various aspects of well-being and self-improvement as Professor Pozzulo’s Picks. I also interview the authors of the books I select on my Reading for Well-Being podcast.

    Each month, members receive a newsletter announcing my pick and a link to the digital platform where my review is posted including a discussion board where club members can share their thoughts about the book. There are no fees and all are welcome to join.

    Whether reading alone or with a group, the benefits of books extend far beyond their pages. So pick up a book and start your journey toward a healthier and more connected life.

    Happy reading!

    Joanna Pozzulo receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. 5 tips from an expert for choosing a self-help book that will actually work – https://theconversation.com/5-tips-from-an-expert-for-choosing-a-self-help-book-that-will-actually-work-252596

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition has announced an even more radical plan to cut international students than Labor. Here’s how it would work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor of Higher Education Policy, Monash University

    Last year, the Coalition made the surprise decision to oppose Labor’s plans for new international student caps.

    On Sunday, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton proposed an even more radical policy of his own to limit the number of international students in Australia.

    He announced a combination of tighter enrolment limits, increased visa application fees and changes to temporary graduate visas, which allow some former students to remain in Australia to work.

    This is aimed at either deterring potential students from applying or stopping them from going to their preferred university.

    What’s the Coalition’s policy?

    The Coalition and Labor similarly argue high numbers of international students are putting pressure on housing markets.

    But the opposition is also concerned there are too many international students in some courses. They say some courses can have international enrolments of up to 80%.

    To address both problems, the Coalition proposes a maximum international student enrolment share at public universities (which is almost all universities in Australia). This would be around 25% of all commencing (or new) enrolments. Other education providers, such as private colleges and TAFEs, would face separate caps.

    The Coalition estimates this would result in 30,000 fewer new international students per year than Labor’s policy.

    What is happening under Labor?

    Last year, Labor wanted to give the education minister wide powers to cap international student enrolments by education provider, campus and course.

    Apart from some exempt categories (such as postgraduate research students), vocational and higher education providers would have been allocated 270,000 commencing enrolments between them for 2025. This is compared to 323,000 commencing enrolments in 2023.

    But the bill was opposed by the Greens and the Coalition. So Labor had to move to plan B.

    Using its migration powers, in December 2024, the government issued a ministerial direction on how the Department of Home Affairs should process applications for student visas. This is arguably a de facto cap.

    Immigration officials have been instructed to prioritise student visa applications for all institutions until they near the individual caps that were blocked by the Senate last year.

    Once visa applications are at 80% of each provider’s cap, subsequent applications go into a slower visa processing stream.



    Read more:
    International student numbers in Australia will be controlled by a new informal cap. Here’s how it will work

    Signs applications are already down

    Prospective international students cannot apply for a visa unless an education provider gives them a “confirmation of enrolment”.

    We are seeing signs the ministerial direction is leading to fewer “confirmations of enrolment” and resulting applications.

    My analysis below shows student visa applications for January and February 2025 are well down on equivalent months in 2024, 2023 and 2019 (pre-Covid).

    In late 2024, demand was below the boom times of 2023 and early 2024, but still above 2019.

    What does the Coalition’s plan mean for unis?

    Labor’s policy for university caps uses a formula based on past international student enrolments. The Coalition’s caps would be a percentage of total new enrolments. They expect this to be around 25%, but will set the precise number after consultation and receiving the most recent data.

    Coalition education spokesperson Sarah Henderson has expressed concerns high concentrations of international students have “not been good for our country or for the education outcomes of Australian students”.

    Based on 2023 enrolment data – the latest that also includes domestic students – 35% of new university students in Australia were from overseas. But several universities had international student shares above 50%.

    On the Coalition’s estimates, their policy would see no more than 115,000 new international students in public universities each year, down from 139,000 under Labor’s approach.

    The Coalition acknowledges this will particularly affect the highly ranked Group of Eight universities, including The University of Melbourne and The University of Sydney. Dutton argues these universities have admitted “excessive numbers” of international students.

    Coalition caps for private providers

    One reason the Coalition gave for not supporting Labor’s legislation last year was the disproportionate effect on private education providers, which include both vocational and higher education colleges.

    Under the Coalition’s plan, private providers will still have caps, but they will be different than those for universities. Exactly how this will work is unclear. Their combined caps will be “at most 125,000”, according to the Coalition. Under Labor’s policy, their combined cap is a little higher, at about 132,000.

    A complicating factor here is the government’s existing migration policies have smashed demand for vocational education – as my analysis shows.

    This means many vocational education providers may not be able to fully use the places allocated under Labor’s indicative cap. These shortfalls may create space to increase caps for other private education providers.

    Visa application fees

    Last year, in a bid to cut international student numbers, Labor more than doubled the student visa application fee from A$710 to $1,600. They subsequently reversed this for Pacific Islander applicants.

    Under the Coalition, the visa application fee would more than triple to $5,000 for applicants to Group of Eight universities. For students seeking entry to other providers, the fee would be $2,500.

    Temporary graduate visas

    The Coalition also promises a “rapid review” of the temporary graduate visa program. This would be to prevent its “misuse” as a way to gain access to the Australian labour market and permanent migration.

    Labor has already reduced the number of years former students can stay on temporary graduate visas, reduced the age limit to be granted a visa from 50 to 35 years, and increased the minimum English requirements.

    Applications for temporary graduate visas are down on past levels.

    While Labor’s changes made some potential visa applicants ineligible, recent applications could be the calm before the storm. Large numbers of 2023 and 2024 international students will complete their courses in the coming years, with many of them eligible for temporary graduate visas under current policies.

    International education will take a hit regardless

    The Coalition’s international student election policy is less of a surprise than its refusal to back Labor’s caps last year. They have foreshadowed tough policies many times in recent months.

    But the proposed increased visa application fees and enrolment caps would be painful for both students and education providers.

    Universities have repeatedly argued international students are not major causes of the housing crisis. They have also argued international education is a valuable export and it is being undermined by policy changes out of Canberra. But this has had no impact on the stance of either Labor or the Coalition.

    So, the number of international students in Australia will fall regardless of the federal election result. The decline is set to be greater under a Coalition government. But regardless of the election result, the days of unlimited international student numbers are over.

    The Conversation

    Andrew Norton works for Monash University, which is a member of the Group of Eight and would be significantly affected by the policies discussed in this article.

    – ref. The Coalition has announced an even more radical plan to cut international students than Labor. Here’s how it would work – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-has-announced-an-even-more-radical-plan-to-cut-international-students-than-labor-heres-how-it-would-work-253919

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Woman-to-woman marriage in west Africa: a vanishing tradition of power and agency

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Bright Alozie, Assistant Professor, Portland State University

    Marriage in west Africa has played a central role in shaping aspects of society, and has evolved over time. While traditional heterosexual unions dominate discussions, a lesser-known but significant practice – woman-to-woman marriage – has existed for centuries.

    In my research, I examined this institution, which allows a woman to assume the role of a husband by marrying another woman. There’s evidence of woman-to-woman marriage in more than 40 societies across west Africa, including the Igbo of Nigeria, the Frafra of Ghana and the Dahomeans of present-day Benin.

    How it works is that a woman – often wealthy or of high status – pays a bride price and takes on a wife who is expected to bear children. A male relative or chosen partner, known as the genitor, fathers the children. The children will legally belong to the female husband and are considered part of her lineage. This reinforces kinship structures, or family ties within traditional communities and clans, vital to west African societies.

    Unlike romantic same-sex unions, these are social contracts. They aim to preserve lineage, secure inheritance, and enhance a woman’s economic and political agency.

    Female husbands gain significant control over property by assuming the role of head of household. This enables them to own and manage assets independently, a right typically reserved for men.

    Securing heirs through their wives ensures the continuation of their lineage and the inheritance of their property and status. It solidifies their long-term agency and influence within the community.

    The union also grants them more legal standing – they can enter into contracts, resolve disputes, and represent their family in legal matters, further empowering them in a patriarchal society.

    This all translates into considerable influence. Female husbands can hold positions of authority, and command respect. They challenge traditional gender roles.

    Colonial distortions and modern misconceptions have obscured the meaning and function of this historically prevalent practice. Despite its important role, it has declined over time. With growing stigma, the old customs have become less common.

    My research seeks to underscore the historical value of woman-to-woman marriage. It offers a lens for understanding the complexities of African gender systems, female agency and social structures.

    Tradition rooted in kinship and social stability

    Using a combination of oral interviews, archival research and literature reviews, I found that there are various scenarios in which woman-to-woman marriage is practised in west Africa.

    In Okrika, in Nigeria’s Rivers State, for example, I was told how a married woman who has no male child in her family is allowed to marry a woman so that a male child can be born into the family. If her marriage does not produce a male child and she has money, the culture allows her to marry more than one wife as long as she can take care of them and the union can produce a male child to carry the name of her family.

    In my interview with Chief Nkemjirika Njoku, of the Mbaise Igbo in Nigeria, he described another scenario. He explained that if a man died without male heirs, his daughters could pay a bride price for a woman to bear children in his name. This ensured his lineage did not disappear.

    Similarly, among the Frafra people of Ghana one study shows how:

    a wealthy woman may marry one or more women for her husband by providing the bridewealth. These women bear children in her name in the event of her being childless or to offer extra labour.

    These accounts illustrate how marriage and kinship complement each other and how this practice provided women with economic influence and social mobility, often rivalling men’s.

    Colonial disruptions and modern challenges

    Despite the tradition’s important role, during the 19th century European colonial officials and Christian missionaries misunderstood and condemned the practice.

    Viewing it through a Victorian moral framework – rigid and conservative values of 19th-century Britain which emphasised strict gender roles, sexual restraint and moral purity – they mistakenly equated it with homosexuality and sought to outlaw it. For instance, in 1882 British colonial authorities in Ghana criminalised same-sex relations. These laws included woman-to-woman marriages, despite their deeply rooted cultural significance.

    The practice persisted in various forms, however, but did become less prevalent.

    In some cases, the unions were subtly restructured to avoid colonial scrutiny. Participants framed them more as business partnerships or familial arrangements rather than marriages. For instance, many prominent traders would use the unions to expand their wealth and business networks. Among the Hausa-Fulani textile traders of the Sokoto Caliphate, for example, a wealthy widow could marry a woman to manage her trade. This ensured that children born within the union inherited her wealth.

    Subverting or reinforcing patriarchy?

    Today, woman-to-woman marriage remains misunderstood. Some argue it reinforces patriarchal structures, while others conflate it with lesbian relationships.

    The growing influence of Christianity and Islam has led to its stigmatisation. Meanwhile modern legal systems fail to recognise the unions, leaving female husbands and their children vulnerable in inheritance disputes.

    Advancements in reproductive technology provide alternative means for childbearing, reducing the need for these marriages.

    In my opinion, though, this tradition remains a valuable and powerful system. It highlights the ingenuity of African societies in creating alternative structures of power, kinship and economic security – especially for women.

    Based on my research I concluded that woman-to-woman marriage is an example of flexible African gender constructs. Gender is not strictly tied to biological sex but to social roles and responsibilities. African societies have creatively adapted marriage and kinship to meet economic and social needs.

    More than a marriage practice, woman-marriage has been an assertion of female agency, an economic strategy, and a means of preserving lineage.

    Bright Alozie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Woman-to-woman marriage in west Africa: a vanishing tradition of power and agency – https://theconversation.com/woman-to-woman-marriage-in-west-africa-a-vanishing-tradition-of-power-and-agency-251919

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do African MPs reflect the people who vote for them? We studied 17 countries to find out

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Robert Mattes, Professor in Government and Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, and Adjunct Professor in the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town, University of Strathclyde

    By the end of 2025, 42 African countries will have held national elections in the previous 24 months. But do these elections produce parliaments that accurately reflect the societies they serve? Aside from studies of women in Africa’s legislatures, there is surprisingly little information about this important issue.

    Elected parliaments are the essence of representative democracy. Law makers are more likely to know what voters need and want if they are alike in age, gender, language, education or occupation.

    As scholars of African politics, we wanted to find out if African legislators actually represented their voters. We compared the results of two separate surveys conducted between 2009 and 2012 across the same 17 African countries.

    The first comes from the African Legislatures Project. This interviewed 823 elected representatives (MPs). The second was produced by Afrobarometer, a pan-African research network.

    Our study found wide gaps between citizens and their representatives in some respects, but a high degree of similarity in others.

    Compared to ordinary African citizens, African legislators possess much higher levels of education. They are also far more likely to be older, male and to come from professional or business backgrounds. Yet the overall profile of legislators closely matches that of the voters in terms of ethnicity and religion.

    Religion and ethnicity

    One of the most striking findings is the match between the religious, language and ethnic make-up of African legislatures and voters.

    Across all 17 countries, the proportion of law makers who are either Muslim or Christian closely resembles their electorates. They are also similar at the level of religious denomination (for example Catholic, Methodist or Pentecostal).

    Legislatures closely mirror the languages spoken by citizens in their countries. In some countries the overlap is very high. In Lesotho, for example, almost all MPs and citizens speak the same language (Sesotho). In Zimbabwe, the distribution of Shona and Ndebele speaking MPs is much the same as it is for the public.

    There’s less overlap in Tanzania (where many more parliamentarians point to Swahili as their home language than Kisukuma, which most citizens speak). And in Namibia and South Africa, most MPs claim English as their home language rather than the otherwise dominant Oshiwambo or Zulu, respectively.

    Many scholars argue that proportional representation voting systems (where people vote for party lists, rather than candidates) are necessary to reflect ethnic diversity. Our findings demonstrate that this is not necessarily the case. We found high levels of correspondence in diverse societies that elect members from “first past the post” single member districts, such as Zimbabwe, Ghana, Malawi and Uganda. This is because political parties will strategically select candidates who reflect the religious and ethnic identities of specific constituencies so that candidates are seen as “one of us”.

    Where presented with a choice between candidates of differing religious or ethnic backgrounds, voters will tend to prefer the one similar to them. They feel that candidates who come from their area, or speak their language, are more likely to understand their needs and preferences.

    Education and occupation

    Our study also established that African elections produce legislatures that are older, more male, far more educated and wealthier than their voters.

    While only 9% of citizens possessed a university degree across these 17 countries in the years under review, 58% of MPs had one. In Uganda, this figure climbed to 90%: a substantial educational disparity.

    Occupational backgrounds also reveal a pronounced skew. A large proportion of parliamentarians come from business (24%) or professional (27%) sectors. Average citizens are likely to be blue collar or agricultural workers.

    Gender and age

    Despite making up roughly 50% of African societies, just 18% of the parliamentarians we interviewed were women.

    Proportional representation voting systems do increase gender balance. This shows in Mozambique (40% of parliamentarians are female), Namibia (35%) and South Africa (28%). But other mechanisms such as gender quotas in the governing party nomination process (Tanzania, 32%), or reserved seats (Uganda, 27%), also increase women’s representation.

    Finally, elected legislatures are almost always older than their electorate. But African legislators appear to be especially venerable. While the median age of the over-18 citizen population across these 17 societies is 33, the median age of our sample of MPs was 53. This raises questions about the ability of older legislators to fully understand and address the concerns of younger generations.

    Are parliamentarians an unaccountable ‘power elite’?

    We also wondered whether the social and economic advantages provided by higher education and experience in business and the professions might keep MPs in power, and out of touch with the needs of citizens.

    Two factors appear to work against this outcome.

    First, we examined potential markers of status and influence: university education; high-status occupational background; and previously held positions in party leadership, national government, or local government. It turns out that the average MP had only accumulated two of these things.

    Second, consistent with other studies of African legislatures that find surprising levels of turnover of individual parliamentarians, the typical law maker in our surveys had been in office for just five years. Whatever status or privilege they carry with them into the legislative chamber does not guarantee a long stay.

    What can we learn from this?

    These results provide some insights for the continent’s next election season.

    Most ruling parties were humbled at the polls in 2024, and several lost their majority in parliament (Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, Senegal and South Africa). The trend of high legislator turnover seems likely to continue.

    Thus, newly elected parliamentarians are unlikely to form a coherent “power elite”. The real challenge seems to be to harness the impressive skills African MPs bring to their jobs to enable them to play a more meaningful role in writing laws and holding their executives to account.

    Robert Mattes is co-founder and Senior Advisor to Afrobarometer.

    Matthias Krönke is affiliated with Afrobarometer.

    Shaheen Mozaffar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do African MPs reflect the people who vote for them? We studied 17 countries to find out – https://theconversation.com/do-african-mps-reflect-the-people-who-vote-for-them-we-studied-17-countries-to-find-out-252055

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –