NewzIntel.com

Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rowan Martin-Hughes, Senior Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    CI Photos/Shutterstock

    In January, the Trump administration ordered a broad pause on all US funding for foreign aid.

    Among other issues, this has significant effects on US funding for HIV. The United States has been the world’s biggest donor to international HIV assistance, providing 73% of funding in 2023.

    A large part of this is the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which oversees programs in low- and middle-income countries to prevent, diagnose and treat the virus. These programs have been significantly disrupted.

    What’s more, recent funding cuts for international HIV assistance go beyond the US. Five countries that provide the largest amount of foreign aid for HIV – the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands – have announced cuts of between 8% and 70% to international aid in 2025 and 2026.

    Together, this may mean a 24% reduction in international HIV spending, in addition to the US foreign aid pause.

    We wanted to know how these cuts might affect HIV infections and deaths in the years to come. In a new study, we found the worst-case scenario could see more than 10 million extra infections than what we’d otherwise anticipate in the next five years, and almost 3 million additional deaths.

    What is HIV?

    HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system. HIV can be transmitted at birth, during unprotected sex or thorough blood-to-blood contact such as shared needles.

    If left untreated, HIV can progress to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), a condition in which the immune system is severely damaged, and which can be fatal.

    HIV was the world’s deadliest infectious disease in the early 1990s. There’s still no cure for HIV, but modern treatments allow the virus to be suppressed with a daily pill. People with HIV who continue treatment can live without symptoms and don’t risk infecting others.

    A sustained global effort towards awareness, prevention, testing and treatment has reduced annual new HIV infections by 39% (from 2.1 million in 2010 to 1.3 million in 2023), and annual deaths by 51% (from 1.3 million to 630,000).

    Most of that drop happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic was worst. Today, nearly two-thirds of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all live in low- and middle-income countries.

    HIV can be diagnosed with a simple blood test.
    MaryBeth Semosky/Shutterstock

    Our study

    We wanted to estimate the impact of recent funding cuts from the US, UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands on HIV infections and deaths. To do this, we used our mathematical model for 26 low- and middle-income countries. The model includes data on international HIV spending as well as data on HIV cases and deaths.

    These 26 countries represent roughly half of all people living with HIV in low- and middle income countries, and half of international HIV spending. We set up each country model in collaboration with national HIV/AIDS teams, so the data sources reflected the best available local knowledge. We then extrapolated our findings from the 26 countries we modelled to all low- and middle-income countries.

    For each country, we first projected the number of new HIV infections and deaths that would occur if HIV spending stayed the same.

    Second, we modelled scenarios for anticipated cuts based on a 24% reduction in international HIV funding for each country.

    Finally, we modelled scenarios for the possible immediate discontinuation of PEPFAR in addition to other anticipated cuts.

    With the 24% cuts and PEPFAR discontinued, we estimated there could be 4.43 million to 10.75 million additional HIV infections between 2025 and 2030, and 770,000 to 2.93 million extra HIV-related deaths. Most of these would be because of cuts to treatment. For children, there could be up to an additional 882,400 infections and 119,000 deaths.

    In the more optimistic scenario in which PEPFAR continues but 24% is still cut from international HIV funding, we estimated there could be 70,000 to 1.73 million extra new HIV infections and 5,000 to 61,000 additional deaths between 2025 and 2030. This would still be 50% higher than if current spending were to continue.

    The wide range in our estimates reflects low- and middle-income countries committing to far more domestic funding for HIV in the best case, or broader health system dysfunction and a sustained gap in funding for HIV treatment in the worst case.

    Some funding for HIV treatment may be saved by taking that money from HIV prevention efforts, but this would have other consequences.

    The range also reflects limitations in the available data, and uncertainty within our analysis. But most of our assumptions were cautious, so these results likely underestimate the true impacts of funding cuts to HIV programs globally.

    Sending progress backwards

    If funding cuts continue, the world could face higher rates of annual new HIV infections by 2030 (up to 3.4 million) than at the peak of the global epidemic in 1995 (3.3 million).

    Sub-Saharan Africa will experience by far the greatest effects due to the high proportion of HIV treatment that has relied on international funding.

    In other regions, we estimate vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and trans and gender diverse people may experience increases in new HIV infections that are 1.3 to 6 times greater than the general population.

    The Asia-Pacific received US$591 million in international funding for HIV in 2023, which is the second highest after sub-Saharan Africa. So this region would likely experience a substantial rise in HIV as a result of anticipated funding cuts.

    Notably, more than 10% of new HIV infections among people born in Australia are estimated to have been acquired overseas. More HIV in the region is likely to mean more HIV in Australia.

    But concern is greatest for countries that are most acutely affected by HIV and AIDS, many of which will be most affected by international funding cuts.

    Rowan Martin-Hughes receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Debra ten Brink has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Nick Scott receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    – ref. Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths – https://theconversation.com/foreign-aid-cuts-could-mean-10-million-more-hiv-infections-by-2030-and-almost-3-million-extra-deaths-253017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: First year of Georgia’s ‘foreign agent’ law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anastasiya Zavyalova, Associate Professor of Strategic Management, Rice University

    Demonstrators protest the foreign influence law in front of the Georgian Parliament building on May 28, 2024. Nicolo Vincenzo Malvestuto/Getty Images

    Autocracy is on the move worldwide and becoming more resilient.

    One of the driving forces behind this phenomenon is something scholars call “authoritarian learning,” a process by which autocratic leaders study each other and adapt tactics based on what appears to work, and how to proceed when they encounter resistance.

    Take Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party has steered the Caucasus nation from a path toward democracy back to autocracy – and it has done so by learning from Russia. In particular, it adopted a “foreign agent” law in May 2024 – legislation that came straight from Vladimir Putin’s playbook.

    Sold to the public as increasing transparency, the legislation has been utilized to persecute Georgia’s opposition and arrest dissidents with impunity.

    As researchers examining the structure and effects of autocratic regimes, we view Georgia’s first year of its foreign agent law as an example of how politicians are not only learning the tactics of Russian authoritarianism but improving on them in a shorter time frame.

    Bouncing from Europe to Russia

    Georgia’s current ruling party came to power after then-President Mikheil Saakashvili enacted a major series of reforms in the 2000s. Saakashvili, who was jailed in 2021 under highly contested charges, inherited a Georgia seen as a failing and corrupt state tethered to Russia.

    The reform-minded politicians of Saakashvili’s government set the country on a pro-Western path. But after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, a socially conservative coalition under the banner Georgian Dream won the parliamentary elections in 2012.

    Georgian Dream was buoyed by the fortune of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Russian citizen until 2011. The party capitalized on the public’s fatigue after a decade of Saakashvili’s necessary but intense reforms. The new coalition married a promise for continuing the pro-Western reforms, but with a more traditional, conservative approach to social issues.

    This appeal to traditional Georgian values won support in rural communities and carried the coalition to an absolute majority in Parliament in 2016. Since then, Georgian Dream has adopted pro-Russian rhetoric, accusing a “global war party” of running the West. Increasing attacks on the European Union, in particular, have been a part of a broader strategy to bring Georgia back into Russia’s orbit.

    The Georgian Dream progression in power has mirrored that of Putin in Russia. In 2012, Putin signed a “foreign agents” law that originally targeted NGOs receiving foreign funding and alleged to be engaged in political activity.

    The Kremlin equated this law to the 1938 Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA, in the United States, and justified it as a means to increase transparency around foreign involvement in Russia’s internal affairs.

    Unlike FARA, however, Russia’s version of the law neither required establishing a connection between foreign funding and political activity nor provided a clear definition of political activity.

    This vagueness allowed for a wide range of NGOs deemed undesirable by the Kremlin to be labeled as “foreign agents.” The result was the suppression of NGO activities through financial, administrative and legal burdens that led to their liquidation or departure from the country.

    Over the years, this law has reduced Russian civil society’s ability to independently voice and address issues that its population faces.

    Yearlong slide into autocracy

    Georgian Dream passed a very similar foreign agent law on May 28, 2024, after overcoming a presidential veto. It forced NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register with the Ministry of Justice as “serving the interests of a foreign power.”

    Activists opposing the law have been physically assaulted, and the law has been utilized against what the ruling party has described as “LGBT propaganda.”

    The law fits a wider political landscape in which the ruling party has moved to restrict freedom of the press, prosecuted political opponents and postponed Georgia’s European Union candidate status despite the overwhelming majority of Georgians being pro-EU.

    Protestors take part in a pro-European rally in Warsaw, Poland, on April 30, 2024.
    Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Improving on Russian authoritarians

    Three critical factors played a role in allowing for the foreign agent law in Russia to expand its reach: the power imbalance between the Russian government and NGOs, limited action by international authorities, and delayed media attention to the issue.

    At the time the law was passed, civil society inside Russia itself was split. Some foresaw the dangers of the law and engaged in collective action to oppose it, while others chose to wait and see.

    As it happened, the law and the accompanying repressive apparatus spread to a broader range of targets. In 2015, Putin signed a law that designated an “undesirable” status to foreign organizations “on national security grounds”; in 2017, an amendment expanded the targets of the law from NGOs to mass media outlets; and at the end of 2019, the law allowed the classification of individuals and unregistered public associations – that is, groups of individuals – as mass media acting as foreign agents. By July 2022, the foreign funding criterion was excluded and a status of a foreign agent could be designated to anyone whom the Russian authorities deemed to be “under foreign influence.”

    Russia’s experience highlights the process of early stages of authoritarian consolidation, when state power quashes independent sources of power, and political groups and citizens either rally around the government or go silent. The foreign agent law in Russia was passed only after the protests that accompanied the 2012 elections, which returned Putin to the presidency for the third term.

    In Georgia, the ruling government borrowed from Russia’s lead – after backing down from its first attempt to pass a foreign agent law in the face of massive protests, it pushed it through before the elections.

    The law was then used to raid NGOs sympathetic to the opposition days before the October 2024 parliamentary election. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said before the elections that in the event of Georgian Dream’s victory, it would look to outlaw the pro-Western opposition, naming them “criminal political forces.”

    In the wake of President Donald Trump’s suspension of USAID assistance in February 2025, Georgian Dream has seized the opportunity to expand its war on civil society, echoing Russian, Chinese and American far-right conspiracy rhetoric that foreign-funded NGOs were fomenting revolution. To combat such phantoms, Georgian Dream has passed new legislation that criminalizes assembly and protest.

    A springboard for repression

    The foreign agent law has been a springboard for repressive activities in both Russia and Georgia, but while it took Russia a decade to effectively use the law to crush any opposition, Georgian Dream is working on an expedited timetable.

    Although the EU has suspended direct assistance and closed off visa-free travel for Georgian officials as a result of the law, Trump’s turn toward pro-Russian policies has made it more difficult to obtain Western consensus in dislodging the Georgian government from its authoritarian drift.

    Georgia’s experience, following the Russian playbook, illustrates how authoritarians are learning from each other, utilizing the rule of law itself against democracy.

    Christopher A. Hartwell has received funding from the Institute for Humane Studies and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

    Anastasiya Zavyalova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. First year of Georgia’s ‘foreign agent’ law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame – https://theconversation.com/first-year-of-georgias-foreign-agent-law-shows-how-autocracies-are-replicating-russian-model-and-speeding-up-the-time-frame-250878

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Tharaphi Than, Associate Professor of World Cultures and Languages, Northern Illinois University

    Myanmar’s civil war involves a range of different ethnic groups fighting the military. Thierry Falise/LightRocket via Getty Images

    While the United States talked military assistance and minerals with Ukraine, Russia did the same with one of its few remaining allies: Myanmar.

    On March 4, 2025, the commander in chief and leader of Myanmar, Min Aung Hlaing, visited Russia. It was his fourth official visit since a coup in 2021 saw the military seize power.

    That coup ended a decade-long power-sharing arrangement between the army and the democratically elected government in Myanmar, sparking peaceful protests that soon developed into a nationwide armed resistance known as the Spring Revolution and an ensuing government crackdown.

    The resulting civil war – now into its fourth year – has seen 6,000-plus people killed, 29,000 arrested and more than 3.3 million displaced, according to estimates from the human rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The conflict pits the country’s military, which has had a stranglehold on Myanmar’s politics for much of the past six decades, against a broad-based opposition that includes ethnic minority groups like the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army, Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, People’s Defense Force and Bamar People’s Liberation Army.

    With seemingly no immediate end to the fighting in sight, all sides are becoming increasingly reliant on foreign suppliers of weapons and fuel.

    And this prompts an important question: Could the shifting policies and alignments of global powers – notably China, Russia and the U.S. – tip the balance of Myanmar’s civil war?

    Russia: Myanmar’s ‘forever friend’

    Throughout the civil war, Myanmar’s generals have turned to Russia for support. Both nations are heavily sanctioned and seen as “pariah states,” so it is, in many ways, a convenient alignment.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Myanmar Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing on March 4, 2025, in Moscow, Russia.
    Getty Images

    In his latest visit to Moscow, Min Aung Hlaing granted Russia rights to extract minerals in Myanmar’s conflict zones and build an oil refinery and a port in the coastal city Dawei.

    Russia has exported oil to Myanmar for many decades. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been using the Southeast Asian country as a route to transport oil to China in an attempt to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions on energy exports. Myanmar has also agreed to supply skilled workers to Russia in a deal to alleviate the country’s labor shortages.

    This mutual arrangement also extends to defense and security matters. Myanmar and Russia engage in joint naval exercises, and Moscow is a top supplier of weapons to Myanmar’s generals and trains personnel for the military government.

    But any diplomatic benefit from having Russia as a sponsor has been blunted due to Moscow’s loss of international support over the war in Ukraine. Should that change, as the new U.S. administration seems keen on, then it could benefit Myanmar’s military by giving the generals a stronger ally on the international stage.

    As such, warming relations between Russia and the U.S. could be to the detriment of Myanmar’s myriad opposition groups. Already, the Trump administration’s policies mean that the resistance can no longer rely on the same level of support from Washington, and it’s no guarantee that European Union countries – already facing the prospect of withdrawn U.S. support for Ukraine – would step in to fill the gap.

    US pivots away from Myanmar

    Washington has nominally supported the Spring Revolution.

    The U.S. provides shelter to Myanmar dissidents, including exiled leaders of the National Unity Government, or NUG, and has pushed for sanctions against the army.

    But that support has been largely symbolic. The U.S. still has not officially recognized the NUG as the legitimate government of Myanmar – a decision that prevents Washington from releasing US$1 billion held at the Federal Reserve to the democratic representatives. That money could be used both to bolster the resistance and deliver much-needed aid to the country’s people.

    U.S. foreign policy as it evolves under the Trump administration is having further ripples in Myanmar.

    The Trump White House has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development, the department tasked with funding Myanmar through 2023’s Burma Act, which authorized sanctions on the military, support for those opposing the junta and assistance for Myanmar’s people.

    Services such as Voice of America and Radio Free Asia have been suspended amid the recent U.S. cutbacks. As a result, people in Myanmar have more-limited access to reliable information and, more importantly, fewer media to represent and amplify their voices.

    Whether the U.S. chooses to continue to support the opposition or engage with the military government and endorse Myanmar elections expected for later this year could have wide implications for the future of democracy in the country.

    U.S. President Barack Obama encouraged Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to take part in elections.
    Soe Than Win/AFP via Getty Images

    Myanmar has witnessed such a U.S. reversal before.

    For a long period, Washington supported the opposition’s boycott of elections that guaranteed the power to the military. But in 2009, the U.S. administration under Barack Obama sent a message to the National League for Democracy (NLD), which at the time was under the leadership of now-imprisoned Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, that Washington would recognize the military’s elections as part of a policy of “pragmatic engagement” with the then-ruling junta.

    It forced the recalcitrant NLD to cooperate by entering the 2012 by-elections – the first time it had taken part in elections since 1990.

    Although the NLD won a sweeping victory – and went on to win the 2015 national vote – it meant giving legitimacy to a system rigged in favor of the military, with a quarter of parliamentary seats reserved for officers. Given that 75% approval was needed for any constitutional reform, it meant that the NLD could form a government but could only make decisions with the consent of the still-powerful generals.

    The political situation now is different from 2012. The yearslong resistance has weakened the military significantly. And even if the NUG, which consists of member of the NLD and other political parties, does feel compelled to participate in elections, the various other resistance groups and ethnic armies will likely choose otherwise. Regional autonomy has become a reality as a result of the decentralized nature of the resistance movement; elections will not satisfy the various demands for autonomy.

    Chinese push for stability

    The U.S. administration’s reduction in aid and, potentially, support for Myanmar’s opposition could lead the way to China taking a greater role in shaping the course of the civil war.

    Beijing, like Washington, had traditionally had a close relationship with the opposition NLD. President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar in 2020 and signed a series of infrastructure deals as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    After the 2021 coup, China initially drew back from supporting Myanmar. But Beijing has since attempted to revive stalled or canceled bilateral projects while supporting reconciliation efforts and positioning itself as a neutral mediator.

    China’s main concern is spillover from the war. For that reason, Beijing became concerned when an alliance of armed ethnic groups launched a major anti-military push in October 2023, fearing the spread of instability across the China-Myanmar border.

    Since the civil war broke out, Chinese investments in Myanmar have stalled. Meanwhile, lawlessness inside Myanmar has led to the growth of mostly Chinese-run online scam centers – victims of which include Chinese citizens who have been kidnapped, trafficked and forced to work as scammers.

    What China wants most is a stable Myanmar. Yet its chosen strategy to try to bring this about – forcing warring parties to sign ceasefire agreements – hasn’t worked so far.

    This could change. The reduction of U.S. aid in Myanmar places an additional burden on ethnic resistance groups – they now have to shoulder more of the burden of providing for the people while fighting for autonomy. As such, resistance groups might be under greater urgency to accept China’s role as a mediator. And with that changed calculus, the imperative to find a negotiated solution may increase.

    But a rushed ceasefire born of necessity does not equate to a lasting solution. As such, the shifting geopolitics of Russia, the U.S. and China may impact Myanmar’s civil war – but it will do little to encourage democracy in the country, nor put it on a path to lasting peace.

    Tharaphi Than does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role – https://theconversation.com/myanmars-civil-war-how-shifting-us-russia-ties-could-tip-balance-and-hand-china-a-greater-role-251782

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tobacco excise revenue has tanked amid a booming black market. That’s a diabolical problem for the government

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fei Gao, Lecturer in Taxation, Discipline of Accounting, Governance & Regulation, The University of Sydney, University of Sydney

    Tuesday night’s federal budget revealed a sharp drop in what was once a major source of revenue for the government – the tobacco excise.

    This financial year, the government expects to earn revenue from the tobacco excise of A$7.4 billion. That’s down sharply from $12.6 billion in 2022–23, and an earlier peak of $16.3 billion in 2019–20.

    The government expects this downward trend to continue. Australia’s heavy tobacco taxation has driven many consumers towards illicit cigarettes.

    But this is more than just a problem for government coffers accustomed to revenue from the tobacco tax.

    It presents a major challenge for a public health policy that has long relied on increasing tobacco excise duty as its primary tool to reduce smoking.



    Read more:
    The 2025 budget has few savings and surprises but it also ignores climate change

    Climbing tax rates, falling revenue

    If government revenue from tobacco is falling, it isn’t because we aren’t trying to tax it. Cigarette prices in Australia are among the highest in the world, with taxes making up a substantial chunk of the price.

    About $1.40 of the cost of each cigarette represents excise duty. GST is payable on top of that.

    Australia’s tobacco excise is indexed every March and September, in line with average weekly ordinary-time earnings.

    On top of indexation, the excise rate is currently being increased by
    an additional 5% each year, for a period of three years that began in September 2023.

    This policy is grounded in the principle that higher costs deter smoking.
    And smoking rates have fallen in recent decades. About 8% of Australians aged 14 and over still smoke daily, down from almost 20% in 2001.

    Some of that fall has been offset by the rapid ascent of vaping. About 7% of Australians use e-cigarettes – about half of whom vape daily.

    But while legal cigarette prices are prohibitively high for some, illegal alternatives are widely available and significantly cheaper. That’s because these unregulated products bypass excise and GST entirely.

    Vaping has soared in popularity as an alternative to smoking.
    Natali Brillianata/Shutterstock

    Unintended consequences

    The estimated value of illicit tobacco entering the Australian market has soared, from $980 million in 2016–17 to more than $6 billion in 2022–23. Of this $6 billion, almost $3 billion entered the market undetected.

    The actual decline in tobacco excise revenue, as exposed in the latest budget papers, has been much more significant than previously forecast.

    To make things worse, the cost of enforcement is rising. The 2025–26 federal budget allocates an additional $156 million over the next two years to combat illicit tobacco — on top of the $188 million committed in the previous budget.

    There are other broader impacts on overall tax revenue. Convenience stores lose legitimate sales to illegal tobacco vendors, resulting in less corporate tax income.

    Holding back broader public health efforts

    On other measures, Australia has long been a global leader in tobacco control. The first health warnings on cigarette packets appeared in 1973.

    In 2006, graphic health warnings were introduced. And in 2011, Australia pioneered plain packaging laws.

    Such public health measures are set to get even stronger this year, with new requirements for every individual cigarette sold to have an “on-product” health warning such as “causes 16 cancers” or “shortens your life”.

    These new regulations come into effect on April 1 2025, but retailers will have a three-month transition period to phase out existing stock.

    The tight transition period may prove challenging for the legitimate cigarette trade.

    But it is unlikely those who ply the unlawful trade in illegal tobacco – or their customers – will be particularly bothered by this latest attempt to wean the public off the habit.

    No easy solution

    The increasing heavy tobacco excise and the new law requiring warning messages on individual cigarettes have the potential to reduce tobacco consumption among those who purchase the product legally.

    However, suppliers of black-market cigarettes – who now comprise an estimated 18% of market share – are unlikely to allow this initiative to affect their illegal trade.

    The widespread move to vaping, with poor regulation, has further fuelled the black market for both products.

    It is going too far to draw parallels with the prohibition era in the United States, when the manufacture, transportation and sale of alcohol was illegal. This was a brief but disastrous experiment in social engineering with unfortunate and, in retrospect, arguably predictable consequences.

    But there are some unfortunate similarities when it comes to Australia’s tobacco tax policy, which has inadvertently encouraged black markets, criminality and organised crime.

    Yet for the government, lowering the excise tax to encourage smokers back to legal cigarettes would be completely out of step with its public health objectives. Legal or illegal, black-market cigarettes and vapes still contribute to health risks, undermining the public health goals behind regulatory controls.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tobacco excise revenue has tanked amid a booming black market. That’s a diabolical problem for the government – https://theconversation.com/tobacco-excise-revenue-has-tanked-amid-a-booming-black-market-thats-a-diabolical-problem-for-the-government-253329

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition has promised $400m for youth mental health. Young people told us what they need

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bridianne O’Dea, Little Heroes Professor of Child and Adolescent Mental Health, Flinders University

    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has promised a Coalition government would spend an extra A$400 million on youth mental health services.

    This is in addition to raising the number of subsidised psychology sessions from ten to 20, which had been previously announced.

    While extra funding for youth mental health is welcome, it’s important to target this in ways that will make a real difference to young people.

    In our recent research, we asked young people about their experiences of waiting for mental health support, how they coped in the meantime, and what would really make a difference while they waited.

    Rates of mental illness rising

    An estimated one in seven Australian children and adolescents had a mental illness in the past 12 months. Rates of mental illness have also increased over time, particularly among younger generations.

    The COVID pandemic led to a rapid rise in the number of children and young people seeing their GP for mental health problems. Visits for depression rose by 61% and eating disorders by 56% compared with before the pandemic.

    The number of visits to the emergency department in New South Wales for self-harm, or plans or thoughts about suicide, have also increased since COVID.

    The annual Mission Australia Survey reveals young Australians see mental health as one of their biggest challenges, with thousands calling for more support.

    But there are long waits for care

    Despite the greater demand for mental health treatment in Australia, there is very little information on how long young people wait to access it.

    The Australian Psychological Society reported that during the pandemic, 88% of psychologists increased their wait times and one in five were not taking on new clients. This meant about half of people waited more than three months to begin psychological treatment. But this is for clients of all ages.

    There is also little information on how young people experience the wait for treatment.

    We asked young people about the wait for care

    We recently published research on the wait times for mental health treatment for Australian teens.

    We asked 375 young people aged 13–17 about the mental health care they have tried to access for their anxiety and depression and how long they waited to start treatment. We also asked them about their mental health while they waited, what helped them cope, and the types of support they received.

    We found that on average, teens were waiting more than three months for their first session of treatment. Most teens waited to access psychologists and psychiatrists after a GP referral.

    While their wait times varied, nearly all teens felt they waited “too long”.

    Longer wait times were linked to poorer mental health, with more than 90% of teens reporting high distress while they waited. Many of the teens felt their feelings of worry and sadness had worsened and they had used risky and unhealthy ways to cope, such as spending more time alone, sleeping more, self-harming, and using alcohol and other drugs.

    Most teens did not receive any support from their health-care providers during the wait time, despite wanting it.

    One female 17-year-old had waited six months for treatment and told us:

    It felt like I was hanging over a cliff and was just told to hold on.

    Teens also felt their parents would benefit from greater support during the wait time. But we need more research to better understand how to help families.

    Together, these findings show we desperately need to address wait times for young people’s mental health treatment.

    Teens know the support they need

    If teens are to wait for mental health treatment, they told us they need support while they do so.

    Young people wanted more regular contact and “check-ins” from their service providers, someone to talk to during the wait, as well as more useful information on positive ways to cope.

    Most teens in our study used digital mental health tools – such as mental health websites, online mental health checks, mobile apps, online chat services and forums – while they waited.

    We’re developing digital mental health tools, in consultation with young people and GPs, to support doctors to care for their teen patients when treatment isn’t available right away. We’re testing the system of short digital mental health programs, supportive text messages and peer support in NSW this year.

    But not all teens we surveyed found digital mental health tools helpful. So we need to offer teens a range of supports – from their family, their GP, and from their referred service provider – to help them cope while they wait for treatment.

    What can governments do?

    We must carefully consider when, where and how mental health funds are invested. If governments wish to see more young people treated for their mental health problems, then we need to look at how our health-care system will cope with the growing demand.

    We also need national, transparent benchmarks for how long young Australians wait for mental health treatment. Only some health services in Australia have this. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, have something similar to minimise the health risks of young people waiting too long for care.

    Ultimately, though, we need to prevent mental health issues from starting in the first place. That would reduce the need for treatment, the very type young Australians are waiting too long for.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Bridianne O’Dea is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) Investigator Fellowship (1197249) and a MRFF Millions Minds Mental Health Grant (2035416). Bridianne O’Dea received funding from the Buxton Family Foundation, Australian Unity, the Frontiers Technology Clinical Academic Group Industry Connection Seed Funding Scheme and the UNSW Medicine, Neuroscience, Mental Health and Addiction Theme and SPHERE Clinical Academic Group Collaborative Research Funding to conduct this research. Bridianne O’Dea is a member of the Australian Society for Mental Health Research and the International Society for Research on Internet Interventions. Bridianne O’Dea’s current work has received pro bono support from Deloitte Digital Australia.

    – ref. The Coalition has promised $400m for youth mental health. Young people told us what they need – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-has-promised-400m-for-youth-mental-health-young-people-told-us-what-they-need-253328

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ants in your house? Here’s how they get everywhere – even high up in tall buildings

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tanya Latty, Associate Professor, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney

    Windy Soemara/Shutterstock

    Ants are among nature’s greatest success stories, with an estimated 22,000 species worldwide.

    Tropical Australia in particular is a global hotspot for ant diversity. Some researchers believe it could hold some of the richest ant biodiversity on the planet, with an estimated 5,000 species in the tropics alone.

    But if ants are so successful out in nature, why do they so often turn up in our homes and even upper-level apartments?

    And what can we do to keep them out?

    There’s probably an ant near you right now

    Ants dominate the planet in terms of sheer abundance.

    At any given moment, there are an estimated 20 quadrillion ants alive — that’s 20 followed by 15 zeros.

    In fact, for every human being, there are roughly 2.5 million ants.

    There are about 22,000 ant species worldwide. This one is called the Green tree ant (Oecophylla smaragdina).
    Tanya Latty

    So the short answer to “Why are there ants in my house?” is simply this: there are a lot of ants.

    We live on a planet where ants outnumber us by an almost unimaginable margin. The fact that a few occasionally wander into our homes shouldn’t come as a surprise.

    Ants work from home (yours, that is)

    Ants owe much of their success to their highly social nature.

    Within the colony, some individuals (female queens and male drones) are responsible for reproduction, while others (workers) are busy caring for the young, cleaning or foraging for food. Workers ants are always female.

    Ants may start off outside but at least some will probably eventually end up inside.
    Tanya Latty

    Ant colonies do not have leaders. They are an excellent example of collective behaviour and swarm intelligence, where individuals following relatively simple rules can collectively achieve far more than any individual could alone.

    Just as the individual neurons in your brain can’t compose music, play football, or read articles, the brain as a whole can achieve all these feats and more.

    Colonies of co-operating ants are capable of amazingly sophisticated behaviours such as:

    Ants even outperform humans on some cooperative cognition tasks.

    Credit: Wonder World.

    The highly social nature of ants is a big part of their success — and a key reason why they are so good at finding their way into our homes.

    Each colony contains thousands of intrepid workers, many of which are constantly searching for new food sources. If even a single ant discovers a valuable resource in your home, it can quickly share that information with its nest mates.

    Different ant species use different methods of communication, but the ones that most often invade our homes tend to use “pheromone trails”.

    When an ant finds a food source, she returns to her nest leaving little drops of pheromones as she goes; this trail guides other ants from their nest directly to the food source.

    This highly efficient communication system means a single ant can rapidly recruit thousands of its nest mates to any food it finds.

    Ants may also come inside in search of water, particularly when the weather is hot.

    Some species prefer to build their nests in humid environments, which might explain why they are often found in bathrooms.

    I once discovered an entire colony of sugar ants nesting inside my aquarium filter! The combination of high humidity and an enclosed structure made it an ideal place to build a nest.

    On the flip side, heavy rains can flood ant nests, prompting colonies to seek drier ground — sometimes leading them straight into our homes.

    Ants are incredible communicators.
    Dhe Tong/Shutterstock

    I live in an upper-floor apartment. How did ants get in?

    Many ant species are exceptional climbers, thanks to tiny adhesive pads and fine hairs on their feet.

    These specialised structures allow ants to stick to walls and find footholds even on surfaces that appear smooth to the human eye.

    Remarkably, some canopy-dwelling ants have evolved a behaviour known as “controlled descent” which protects them when they fall. By adjusting the position of their abdomens, falling ants can steer their trajectory, directing themselves back toward the tree trunk and safety.

    Ants often have tiny adhesive pads and fine hairs on their feet, which help them stick to walls.
    Mob_photo/Shutterstock

    How do I keep ants out of my house?

    Well, good luck. No matter what you do, ants will probably enter your house at one time or another.

    Finding a few ants in your home doesn’t mean your house is dirty. We simply live on a planet that is absolutely teeming with ants.

    To minimise unwanted ant visits, start by eliminating any potential food sources that could feed a hungry ant.

    Store all food in sealed airtight containers, clean behind the fridge and inside/under the toaster, avoid leaving pet food out longer than needed and make sure your bins are securely sealed.

    Ants have tiny stomachs, so even small crumbs or the residue from spilled sugary drinks can be enough to entice them back.

    If ants seem to be following each other in a line, try disrupting their chemical trail using vinegar or bleach. Be warned, however: ants are very good at repairing broken trail networks.

    Seal any small cracks or entrance points that might allow ants to get into your home and make sure your windows and doors have well-fitting fly screens.

    Insecticidal baits can kill ant colonies, but before you deploy the nuclear option, ask yourself: what harm are the ants really doing?

    Most common home-invading ants do not sting and are pretty harmless. They can usually be redirected simply by removing their food source.

    Ants are nature’s clean-up crew, tirelessly scavenging waste and helping to maintain a healthy, balanced ecosystem.

    They also play important roles as predators and seed dispersers.

    Before reaching for insecticides, consider whether a few ants in your house are truly a problem.

    Tanya Latty co-founded and volunteers for conservation organisation Invertebrates Australia, is former president of the Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behaviour and is on the Education committee for the Australian Entomological Society. She receives funding from the Australian Research Council, NSW Saving our Species, and Agrifutures Australia.

    – ref. Ants in your house? Here’s how they get everywhere – even high up in tall buildings – https://theconversation.com/ants-in-your-house-heres-how-they-get-everywhere-even-high-up-in-tall-buildings-250625

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Policy tracker: how will Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the independents make Australia better?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Digital Storytelling Team, The Conversation, The Conversation

    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    ➡️ View the full interactive version of this article here

    Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Policy tracker: how will Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the independents make Australia better? – https://theconversation.com/policy-tracker-how-will-labor-the-coalition-the-greens-and-the-independents-make-australia-better-253345

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Travelling overseas? You could be at risk of measles. Here’s how to ensure you’re protected

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney

    Julia Suhareva/Shutterstock

    On March 26 NSW Health issued an alert advising people to be vigilant for signs of measles after an infectious person visited Sydney Airport and two locations in western New South Wales.

    The person recently returned from Southeast Asia where there are active measles outbreaks in several countries including Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

    The NSW alert follows a string of similar alerts issued around Australia in recent days and weeks.

    If you’re travelling overseas soon, you could be at risk of measles. Here’s what to know to ensure you’re protected.

    First, what is measles?

    Measles is one of the most contagious viral illnesses. It spreads through the air when a person breathes, coughs or sneezes. On average, one person can infect 12 to 18 others who are not immune.

    Initial symptoms include fever, a runny nose, cough and conjunctivitis. Then a non-itchy rash usually starts around the hairline before spreading around the body.

    Measles is most common in children, and they’re also most vulnerable to getting very sick with the virus. Measles is severe in around one in ten children. Complications can include ear infection, diarrhoea and pneumonia, and, more rarely, encephalitis (brain swelling).

    However, adults can also catch and spread the disease, making up 10–20% of measles cases during outbreaks.

    Vaccination has saved millions of lives

    The first measles vaccine was licensed for public use in 1963, and it changed the trajectory of this disease. In the 21st century alone, measles vaccination is thought to have saved more than 60 million lives globally.

    The measles vaccine is free through Australia’s National Immunisation Program. It’s routinely given at 12 and 18 months of age. The first dose is combined with mumps and rubella (the MMR vaccine) and the second adds protection against chickenpox, or varicella (MMRV).

    False suggestions the measles vaccination is linked with disorders such as autism have been thoroughly disproven. The vaccine is very safe and highly effective.

    Measles is one of the most contagious viruses there is.
    fotohay/Shutterstock

    However, because the vaccine is made from a live virus, people with weakened immune systems (for example, those receiving chemotherapy for cancer or pregnant women) cannot have the vaccine even though they’re at higher risk of severe measles. Their safety depends on high community immunisation rates to reduce the spread of the virus.

    Because measles is so infectious, at least 95% of the population needs to be immune to prevent its spread.

    Immunity occurs from either two doses of measles vaccine or past infection. Measles vaccination was introduced in Australia in 1968. Most adults born before the mid-1960s would still be immune from a past infection. But vaccination is recommended for everyone else who is not immune.

    Immunity gaps are opening up

    Gaps in immunity to measles have opened up around the world due to challenges in delivering routine immunisations during the COVID pandemic, and, in some cases, reduced acceptance of vaccination.

    In 2023 only 83% of the world’s children received at least one dose of measles vaccine by their first birthday, down from 86% in 2019. This is not enough to halt spread.

    The withdrawal of US government funding from many global health programs, including a measles surveillance network that supports testing and outbreak responses, is throwing fuel on the fire.

    In Australia, small but progressive declines in the uptake of childhood vaccines over the past five years and immunity gaps in other age groups means our risk of outbreaks in increasing.

    Rates of childhood vaccination coverage have been declining slightly.
    Inna photographer/Shutterstock

    For example, coverage of the MMR vaccine at 24 months declined 0.4 percentage points between 2022 and 2023 (from 95.3% to 94.9% in Indigenous children and 95.1% to 94.7% in children overall).

    On-time vaccination rates – within 30 days of the recommended age – are also falling. The proportion of children who had their MMR vaccine on time dropped from 75.3% to 67.2% for non-Indigenous children and 64.7% to 56% for Indigenous children between 2020 and 2023.

    Measles outbreaks are increasing in Australia and across the world

    Measles cases are rapidly rising across the globe and more cases are arriving from overseas into Australia. So far in 2025, 37 cases have been reported compared to 57 in all of 2024, 26 in 2023 and seven in 2022. Most cases have been imported from overseas, but we’ve ascertained eight cases so far in 2025 were locally acquired.

    Many of the countries experiencing the largest measles outbreaks are popular travel destinations for Australians, including India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.

    But few countries are free of measles. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and various countries in Europe are all tackling outbreaks.

    As the incubation period – the gap between exposure and symptoms – is around seven to ten days, travellers may enter the country without knowing they’re about to become ill and potentially spread the virus to others.

    Protecting yourself and your family

    Although the usual age for the first measles dose is 12 months, the MMR vaccine can be given to babies as young as six months who are travelling to measles hotspots or during outbreaks.

    This early measles vaccine dose does not replace those given at 12 and 18 months, but will help protect the infant in the interim.

    It’s important all adults, particularly those planning overseas travel, know their vaccination or infection history. If you don’t, talk to your health-care provider about being vaccinated.

    Everyone who doesn’t have immunity from an infection should have two lifetime doses. Some adults, including those who have migrated from overseas, may have had none or only one dose when they were younger. If you’re unsure, there’s no harm in receiving a vaccine if you’ve had measles or have been fully vaccinated already.

    If you come back from overseas and need medical care, inform your health-care provider about your symptoms and recent travel before attending a clinic in person.

    Archana Koirala has worked on projects funded by the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care and NSW Health. She is the chair of Vaccination Special Interest Group and a committee member of Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Infectious Diseases Group of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases.

    Kristine Macartney is the Director of the Australian National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS). NCIRS receives funding from the Australian government Department of Health and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, NSW and other state and territory health departments, Gavi the Vaccine Alliance, the World Health Organization, the NHMRC, the MRFF and the Wellcome Trust.

    – ref. Travelling overseas? You could be at risk of measles. Here’s how to ensure you’re protected – https://theconversation.com/travelling-overseas-you-could-be-at-risk-of-measles-heres-how-to-ensure-youre-protected-252802

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is Australian bat lyssavirus? Can I catch it from bat poo? What if bats roost near me?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hamish McCallum, Emeritus Professor, infectious disease ecology, Griffith University

    Ken Griffiths/Shutterstock

    Last week, Queensland Health alerted the public about the risk of Australian bat lyssavirus, after a bat found near a school just north of Brisbane was given to a wildlife carer group.

    The bat later died, but it was not confirmed whether it carried the virus.

    This is not unusual. Volunteer wildlife carers respond to thousands of calls from the public every year after encountering sick, injured and orphaned bats. And testing them all routinely for the virus is not warranted or feasible.

    Here’s what you need to know about the risk of catching Australian bat lyssavirus and how it can be treated.

    What is bat lyssavirus?

    Australian bat lyssavirus belongs to the same group of viruses that includes rabies – one of the most notorious diseases humans can catch from animals. Rabies causes about 59,000 deaths worldwide a year, mainly after dog bites. It is almost always fatal once symptoms appear.

    Australian bat lyssavirus was discovered in 1996. There have been only three confirmed cases of the virus in humans in Australia, the most recent in 2013. All three were fatal.

    Fortunately, because Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies are so closely related, the preventative measures that have been developed internationally against rabies can also protect humans from the effects of Australian bat lyssavirus.

    Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies have a long incubation period (the period between exposure to infection and appearance of symptoms). If preventative treatments are given during the incubation period, they are highly effective in preventing disease and saving lives.

    Such treatment reduces what is already a very low risk of illness and death to effectively zero.

    Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies (pictured here) are closely related.
    nobeastsofierce/Shutterstock

    How could I be exposed to the virus?

    The virus is present in the saliva of some Australian bats, including the large flying foxes (fruit-eating bats) and some smaller bats that eat insects. But the proportion of bats infected by the virus is normally very low – less than 0.5%.

    Infected bats may become sick and die, but some may appear unaffected. In other words, you can’t always tell just by looking at a bat whether it’s infected or not. However, there is evidence the virus is present at a higher level in sick bats than in healthy ones.

    You cannot be exposed to the virus by being under a flying fox roost, even if the bats poo on you. You cannot be exposed by having bats in your roof or in a shed.

    No, you can’t catch Australian bat lyssavirus from bat poo.
    Anna Evangeli

    But the virus can be transferred to a human via either a scratch or bite. That’s if an infected bat scratches or bites you, or if their saliva is transmitted to an existing wound.

    So you do need to be careful if you come across a sick or injured bat, or you find a child playing with a bat.

    There is no evidence the virus regularly infects dogs and cats, although rabies does.

    Nevertheless, given that Australian bat lyssavirus is a close relative of rabies and that rabies will infect most mammals, the possibility that it may sometimes spill over to mammals other than humans cannot be eliminated.

    For example, in 2013 two horses in the same paddock became infected and had to be euthanised. The source of infection was not identified.

    So you should also seek advice if you see an animal such as a dog or cat play with a dead or injured bat. Contact a wildlife care group for advice about the bat and a vet to discuss post-exposure treatment for your pet.

    If your dog plays with a dead or injured bat, seek advice from your veterinarian to be on the safe side.
    Lazy_Bear/Shutterstock

    How great is the risk?

    It is important to put the risk posed by Australian bat lyssavirus into perspective.

    Although each of the three deaths known to have been caused by the virus since 1996 is tragic, in 2017-2018 alone, 12 people in Australia died from
    bee or wasp stings.

    Bats play an important role in our ecosystems. Without the pollination and pest control services bats provide, our increasingly fragmented native forests would struggle to recover after fires, and we’d need to use more pesticides on our crops. There is also no evidence bat lyssaviruses are increasing in Australian bat populations.

    Is the risk to humans changing?

    However, as we encroach upon natural habitats via land clearing we are likely to have increased contact with wildlife, including bats.

    Mass mortality events in bats in Australia – such as those in recent years caused by extreme heat or bat paralysis syndrome (thought to be caused by bats ingesting an environmental toxin) – are likely to lead to increased contact between people, their pets and vulnerable bats.

    The risk to human health is therefore likely increasing, albeit from a very low level.

    What should I do?

    First, don’t panic. Infection is extraordinarily rare and will continue to be so.

    Second, don’t interfere with bat populations. Do not pick up sick or injured bats and do not allow your children or pets to play with them. Keep your pets inside at night to minimise potential contact with bats.

    Third, if you or a member of your family is bitten or scratched by a bat, or suspect you have been, seek medical attention, including post-exposure treatment. People who regularly handle bats, such as wildlife carers or researchers, should be vaccinated in advance. They are also trained to handle bats safely and use appropriate personal protection equipment.

    If you find a sick or injured bat, contact your local wildlife rehabilitation group or veterinarian.

    Hamish McCallum receives funding from the US NSF and fron the EU Horizons program. His work on bat virus disease ecology has previously been funded by the US NSF and DARPA

    Alison Peel receives funding from the US NIH. Her work on bat virus disease ecology has previously been funded by the ARC, US NSF and DARPA

    Cinthia is a volunteer wildlife carer for a not-for-profit organisation based in Southeast Queensland that works with bats.

    – ref. What is Australian bat lyssavirus? Can I catch it from bat poo? What if bats roost near me? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-australian-bat-lyssavirus-can-i-catch-it-from-bat-poo-what-if-bats-roost-near-me-252632

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Kathy Reid, PhD Candidate, School of Cybernetics, Australian National University

    Amazon

    Amazon has disabled two key privacy features in its Alexa smart speakers, in a push to introduce artificial intelligence-powered “agentic capabilities” and turn a profit from the popular devices.

    Starting today (March 28), Alexa devices will send all audio recordings to the cloud for processing, and choosing not to save these recordings will disable personalisation features.

    How do voice assistants work?

    A voice assistant works by constantly listening for a “wake word”, such as “Alexa”. Once woken, it records the command that is spoken and matches it to an action, such as playing a music track. Matching a spoken command to an action requires what computer scientists call natural language understanding, which can take a lot of computer power.

    Matching commands to actions can be done locally (on the device itself), or sound recordings can be uploaded to the cloud for processing. On-device processing has improved substantially in recent years, but is still less accurate than using the cloud, where more computer power is available.

    Amazon is making two changes today

    Alexa devices send recordings to the cloud by default. However, some high-end Echo models previously supported a setting called “Do not send voice recordings”.

    If this setting was enabled, all recordings were processed locally. In practice, only a tiny fraction of Echo users (around 0.03% had this turned on.

    In the first change, this setting is being disabled, and all recordings will be sent to the cloud.

    Once in the cloud, recordings can be deleted or saved.

    Saved recordings are used for Amazon’s Voice ID feature, which distinguishes between speakers in the same household and aims to provide a personalised experience.

    Alexa users also have a setting called “Don’t save recordings”, which, if enabled, deletes cloud recordings once they’re processed. In the second change, if the “Don’t save recordings” setting is enabled, Voice ID will stop working, and with it, access to personalised features such as user-specific calendar events.

    This two-step change means Alexa users need to make a trade-off between privacy and functionality.

    Alexa loses a lot of money

    Put simply, Amazon needs Echo devices to start making money.

    As US voice assistant expert Joseph Turow has detailed, Amazon began selling Echo devices very cheaply as a “loss leader”. Amazon says it has sold more than 500 million Alexa devices, but between 2017 and 2021 alone the company lost more than US$25 billion on the project.

    Amazon is looking to generative AI to turn the business around, with a US$8 billion investment in OpenAI competitor Anthropic.

    Amazon has invested US$8 billion in AI developer Anthropic.
    Amazon

    In February, Amazon launched a new AI-powered Alexa+ system. It promises more natural interaction and the ability to carry out tasks such as booking flights. Alexa+ is currently only available in the United States.

    “Agentic capabilities” such as booking flights require detailed profile information about the user on whose behalf they are acting. This would include details such as preferred products or services.

    Voice ID and data from spoken commands assist Amazon in tying preferences to a particular person.

    An AI-powered intermediary

    How will Alexa+ help Amazon make money? The first way is via direct subscription fees: the service will eventually only be available to Amazon Prime members or people who pay US$19.99 per month.

    But what may prove more important is that it will help Amazon to position itself as an intermediary between buyers and sellers. This is what Amazon already does with its existing e-commerce platform.

    It’s easy to see the system in action when you search for a product on Amazon’s website. Alongside items sold directly by Amazon, you are presented with products from multiple sellers, each of whom pays Amazon to be listed.

    Everybody pays the platform

    Agentic capabilities are likely to have a similar business model. Service providers – such as airlines or restaurant reservation companies – would pay Amazon when Alexa+ refers customers to them.

    Amazon’s move is part of a broader phenomenon termed “platform capitalism”. This takes in the crowdsourced content of social media platforms, “sharing economy” businesses such as AirBnb, and the automated gig work of the likes of Uber.

    Platform capitalism has delivered benefits for consumers, but in general the greatest benefits flow to those who own the platforms and design their infrastructure, services and constraints.

    How to protect your privacy

    After receiving a US$25 million fine from the US Federal Trade Commission for retaining childrens’ voice recordings in contravention of US laws, Amazon has overhauled Alexa’s privacy settings.

    The settings can be viewed and changed from the Alexa app on your smartphone, under “More > Alexa Privacy”. Alexa users may wish to review the settings in “Manage
    your Alexa Data” to choose how long recordings are saved for and which
    voice recordings to delete. Recordings may also be deleted using a voice
    command.

    As Alexa+ becomes available more widely, users will need to decide whether they are comfortable sharing data about their preferences with Amazon to enable agentic capabilities.

    Some Alexa privacy settings are still available.
    Amazon

    What are the alternatives?

    For users who are uncomfortable with the privacy settings now available with Alexa, a private voice assistant may prove a better choice.

    The Home Assistant Voice Preview is one example. It gives people the option to have voice recordings processed on-device, but offers less functionality than Alexa and can’t work with as many other services. It’s also not very user-friendly, being aimed more at technical tinkerers.

    Users may face a trade-off between privacy and functionality, both within Alexa itself and when considering alternatives. They may also find themselves grappling with their own place in the increasingly inescapable systems of platform capitalism.

    Kathy Reid receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program (AGRTP) for her doctoral work and is a recipient of the Florence Violet McKenzie scholarship.

    She currently contracts on a part-time basis to Mozilla Common Voice as a linguistic engineer. She is a past President of Linux Australia, Inc., an organisation dedicated to supporting open source communities and practices in the region. She was previously Director of Developer Relations at Mycroft.AI, a privacy-focused voice assistant, and held shares in the company, which is now dissolved. She has previously contracted with NVIDIA as a speech data specialist. NVIDIA provided hardware for Echo devices prior to 2021.

    – ref. Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today – https://theconversation.com/everything-you-say-to-an-alexa-speaker-will-be-sent-to-amazon-starting-today-252923

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Reid, PhD Candidate, School of Cybernetics, Australian National University

    Amazon

    Amazon has disabled two key privacy features in its Alexa smart speakers, in a push to introduce artificial intelligence-powered “agentic capabilities” and turn a profit from the popular devices.

    Starting today (March 28), Alexa devices will send all audio recordings to the cloud for processing, and choosing not to save these recordings will disable personalisation features.

    How do voice assistants work?

    A voice assistant works by constantly listening for a “wake word”, such as “Alexa”. Once woken, it records the command that is spoken and matches it to an action, such as playing a music track. Matching a spoken command to an action requires what computer scientists call natural language understanding, which can take a lot of computer power.

    Matching commands to actions can be done locally (on the device itself), or sound recordings can be uploaded to the cloud for processing. On-device processing has improved substantially in recent years, but is still less accurate than using the cloud, where more computer power is available.

    Amazon is making two changes today

    Alexa devices send recordings to the cloud by default. However, some high-end Echo models previously supported a setting called “Do not send voice recordings”.

    If this setting was enabled, all recordings were processed locally. In practice, only a tiny fraction of Echo users (around 0.03% had this turned on.

    In the first change, this setting is being disabled, and all recordings will be sent to the cloud.

    Once in the cloud, recordings can be deleted or saved.

    Saved recordings are used for Amazon’s Voice ID feature, which distinguishes between speakers in the same household and aims to provide a personalised experience.

    Alexa users also have a setting called “Don’t save recordings”, which, if enabled, deletes cloud recordings once they’re processed. In the second change, if the “Don’t save recordings” setting is enabled, Voice ID will stop working, and with it, access to personalised features such as user-specific calendar events.

    This two-step change means Alexa users need to make a trade-off between privacy and functionality.

    Alexa loses a lot of money

    Put simply, Amazon needs Echo devices to start making money.

    As US voice assistant expert Joseph Turow has detailed, Amazon began selling Echo devices very cheaply as a “loss leader”. Amazon says it has sold more than 500 million Alexa devices, but between 2017 and 2021 alone the company lost more than US$25 billion on the project.

    Amazon is looking to generative AI to turn the business around, with a US$8 billion investment in OpenAI competitor Anthropic.

    Amazon has invested US$8 billion in AI developer Anthropic.
    Amazon

    In February, Amazon launched a new AI-powered Alexa+ system. It promises more natural interaction and the ability to carry out tasks such as booking flights. Alexa+ is currently only available in the United States.

    “Agentic capabilities” such as booking flights require detailed profile information about the user on whose behalf they are acting. This would include details such as preferred products or services.

    Voice ID and data from spoken commands assist Amazon in tying preferences to a particular person.

    An AI-powered intermediary

    How will Alexa+ help Amazon make money? The first way is via direct subscription fees: the service will eventually only be available to Amazon Prime members or people who pay US$19.99 per month.

    But what may prove more important is that it will help Amazon to position itself as an intermediary between buyers and sellers. This is what Amazon already does with its existing e-commerce platform.

    It’s easy to see the system in action when you search for a product on Amazon’s website. Alongside items sold directly by Amazon, you are presented with products from multiple sellers, each of whom pays Amazon to be listed.

    Everybody pays the platform

    Agentic capabilities are likely to have a similar business model. Service providers – such as airlines or restaurant reservation companies – would pay Amazon when Alexa+ refers customers to them.

    Amazon’s move is part of a broader phenomenon termed “platform capitalism”. This takes in the crowdsourced content of social media platforms, “sharing economy” businesses such as AirBnb, and the automated gig work of the likes of Uber.

    Platform capitalism has delivered benefits for consumers, but in general the greatest benefits flow to those who own the platforms and design their infrastructure, services and constraints.

    How to protect your privacy

    After receiving a US$25 million fine from the US Federal Trade Commission for retaining childrens’ voice recordings in contravention of US laws, Amazon has overhauled Alexa’s privacy settings.

    The settings can be viewed and changed from the Alexa app on your smartphone, under “More > Alexa Privacy”. Alexa users may wish to review the settings in “Manage
    your Alexa Data” to choose how long recordings are saved for and which
    voice recordings to delete. Recordings may also be deleted using a voice
    command.

    As Alexa+ becomes available more widely, users will need to decide whether they are comfortable sharing data about their preferences with Amazon to enable agentic capabilities.

    Some Alexa privacy settings are still available.
    Amazon

    What are the alternatives?

    For users who are uncomfortable with the privacy settings now available with Alexa, a private voice assistant may prove a better choice.

    The Home Assistant Voice Preview is one example. It gives people the option to have voice recordings processed on-device, but offers less functionality than Alexa and can’t work with as many other services. It’s also not very user-friendly, being aimed more at technical tinkerers.

    Users may face a trade-off between privacy and functionality, both within Alexa itself and when considering alternatives. They may also find themselves grappling with their own place in the increasingly inescapable systems of platform capitalism.

    Kathy Reid receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program (AGRTP) for her doctoral work and is a recipient of the Florence Violet McKenzie scholarship.

    She currently contracts on a part-time basis to Mozilla Common Voice as a linguistic engineer. She is a past President of Linux Australia, Inc., an organisation dedicated to supporting open source communities and practices in the region. She was previously Director of Developer Relations at Mycroft.AI, a privacy-focused voice assistant, and held shares in the company, which is now dissolved. She has previously contracted with NVIDIA as a speech data specialist. NVIDIA provided hardware for Echo devices prior to 2021.

    – ref. Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today – https://theconversation.com/everything-you-say-to-an-alexa-speaker-will-be-sent-to-amazon-starting-today-252923

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fitting the ‘missing puzzle pieces’ – research sheds light on the deep history of social change in West Papua

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dylan Gaffney, Associate Professor of Palaeolithic Archaeology, University of Oxford

    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    Owing to its violent political history, West Papua’s vibrant human past has long been ignored.

    Unlike its neighbour, the independent country of Papua New Guinea, West Papua’s cultural history is poorly understood. But now, for the first time, we have recorded this history in detail, shedding light on 50 millennia of untold stories of social change.

    By examining the territory’s archaeology, anthropology and linguistics, our new book fits together the missing puzzle pieces in Australasia’s human history. The book is the first to celebrate West Papua’s deep past, involving authors from West Papua itself, as well as Indonesia, Australasia and beyond.

    The new evidence shows West Papua is central to understanding how humans moved from Eurasia into the Australasian region, how they adapted to challenging new environments, independently developed agriculture, exchanged genes and languages, and traded exquisitely crafted objects.

    Archaeological evidence shows that people migrating from Eurasia into the Australasian region came through West Papua.
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Early seafaring and adaptation

    During the Pleistocene epoch (2.5 million to 12,000 years ago), West Papua was connected to Australia in a massive continent called Sahul.

    Archaeological evidence from the limestone chamber of Mololo Cave shows some of the first people to settle Sahul arrived on the shores of present-day West Papua. There they quickly adapted to a host of new ecologies.

    The precise date of arrival of the first seafaring groups on Sahul is debated. However, a tree resin artefact from Mololo has been radiocarbon dated to show this happened more than 50,000 years ago.

    Genetic analyses support this early arrival time to Sahul. Our work suggests these earliest seafarers crossed along the northern route, one of two passages through the Indonesian islands.

    Human dispersal to West Papua during the Pleistocene epoch (about 50,000 years ago) and during the Lapita period (more than 3,000 years ago).
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Interestingly, the first migrants carried with them the genetic legacy of intermarriages between our species, Homo sapiens, and the Denisovans, a now extinct species of hominins that lived in eastern Asia. Geneticists currently dispute whether these encounters took place in Southeast Asia, along a northerly or southerly route to Sahul, or even in Sahul itself.

    In the same way modern European populations retain about 2% of Neanderthal ancestry, many West Papuans retain about 3% of Denisovan heritage.

    As the Earth warmed at the end of the Pleistocene, rising seas split Sahul apart. The large savannah plains that joined West Papua and Papua New Guinea to Australia were submerged around 8,000 years ago. Much of West Papua’s southern and western coastlines became islands.

    Social transformations during the past 10,000 years

    As environments changed, so did people’s cuisine and culture.

    We know from sites in Papua New Guinea that people developed their own agricultural systems between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, at a similar time to innovations in Asia and the Americas. However, agricultural systems were not universally adopted across the island.

    New chemical evidence from human tooth enamel in West Papua shows people retained a wide variety of diets, from fish and shellfish to forest plants and marsupials.

    One of the key unanswered questions in West Papua’s history is when cultivation emerged and how it spread into other regions, including Southeast Asia. Taro, bananas, yams and sago were all initially cultivated in New Guinea and have become important staple crops around the world.

    Moses Dialom, an archaeological fieldwork collaborator from the Raja Ampat Islands, examines excavated artefacts at Mololo Cave.
    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    The arrival of pottery, some 3,000 years ago, represents movements of new people to the Pacific. These are best illustrated by iconic Lapita pottery, recorded by archaeologists from Papua New Guinea all the way to Samoa and Tonga.

    Lapita pottery makers spoke Austronesian languages, which became the ancestors of today’s Polynesian languages, including Māori.

    New pottery discoveries from Mololo Cave suggest the ancestors of Lapita pottery makers existed somewhere around West Papua. Finding the location of these ancestral Lapita settlements is a major priority for archaeological research in the territory.

    Rock paintings provide evidence of social change in West Papua.
    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    Other evidence for social transformations includes rock paintings and even bronze axes. The latter were imported all the way from mainland Southeast Asia to West Papua around 2,000 years ago. Metal working was not practised in West Papua at this time and chemical analyses show some of these artefacts were made in northern Vietnam.

    At all times in the past, people had a rich and complex material culture. But only a small fraction of these objects survive for archaeologists to study, especially in humid tropical conditions.

    People settled diverse environments around West Papua, including montane cloud forests (upper left), lowland rainforests (upper right), mangrove swamps (lower left) and coastal beaches (lower right).
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Living traditions and the movement of objects

    From the early 1800s, when West Papua was part of the Dutch East Indies, colonial administrators, scientists and explorers exported tonnes of West Papuan artefacts to European museums. Sometimes the objects were traded or gifted, other times stolen outright.

    In the early 1900s, many objects were also burned by missionaries who saw Indigenous material culture as evidence of paganism. The West Papuan objects that now inhabit museums in Europe, America, Australia and New Zealand are connections between modern people and their ancestral traditions.

    Sometimes these objects represent people’s direct ancestors. Major work is currently underway to connect West Papuans with these collections and to repatriate some of these objects to museums in West Papua. Unfortunately, funding remains a central issue for these museums.

    Many West Papuans continue to produce and use wooden carvings, string bags and shell ornaments. Anthropologists have described how people are actively reconfiguring their material culture, especially given the presence of new synthetic materials and a cash economy.

    A montage of images showing West Papuan archaeologists in the field. (A) Klementin Fairyo, left, is setting up a new excavation. (B) Martinus Tekege excavating pottery. (C) Sonya Kawer with wartime archaeology. (D) Abdul Razak Macap, right, sieving for archaeological artefacts at Mololo Cave.
    Klementin Fairyo, Martinus Tekege, Sonya Kawer, Abdul Razak Macap, CC BY-SA

    Far from being “ancient” people caught in the stone age – a stereotype propagated in both Indonesian and international media – West Papuans are actively confronting the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

    Despite our new findings, West Papua remains an enigma for researchers. It has a land area twice the size of Aotearoa New Zealand, but there are fewer than ten known archaeological sites that have been radiocarbon dated.

    By contrast, Aotearoa has thousands of dated sites. This means West Papua is the least well researched part of the Pacific and there is much more work to be done. Crucially, Papuan scholars need to be at the heart of this research.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fitting the ‘missing puzzle pieces’ – research sheds light on the deep history of social change in West Papua – https://theconversation.com/fitting-the-missing-puzzle-pieces-research-sheds-light-on-the-deep-history-of-social-change-in-west-papua-250616

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump is interested in joining the Commonwealth. It’s not up to him – or even the king

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis Altman, Vice Chancellor’s Fellow and Professorial Fellow, Institute for Human Security and Social Change, La Trobe University

    It seems Britain has one key inducement to offer US President Donald Trump: a state visit hosted by King Charles.

    One can only imagine what the king thinks of this, but he will undoubtedly maintain a stiff upper lip and preside over several lavish dinners.

    Following reports of this offer, which would make Trump the only US president to be twice hosted by a British monarch, stories surfaced that the US might become an associate member of the Commonwealth.



    Read more:
    The king has a tricky diplomatic role to play in inviting Trump for a state visit

    There has been no official confirmation of this, but the story has been floated in several British newspapers.

    What is the Commonwealth?

    The Commonwealth came into existence as a means of retaining links with former British colonies, so there is a certain historical justification for the idea.

    Almost all of Britain’s former colonies are now members of the Commonwealth of Nations, with Ireland and the US notable exceptions.

    The Commonwealth is an organisation that ties together 56 countries, including a few in Africa that have been admitted despite not having been British colonies.

    Of the 56, only a minority recognise the British king as their head of state, a point local monarchists are reluctant to acknowledge.

    Indeed, some members of the Commonwealth, such as Malaysia, Brunei and Tonga, have their own hereditary monarchs.

    In theory, all members are democratic, and several, such as Fiji, have at times been suspended from membership for failing on this count.

    Whatever doubts we might have about the state of US democracy, it is hard to argue the US would fail to meet a bar that allows continued membership to states such as Pakistan and Zimbabwe.

    The Commonwealth is largely seen as less important than other international groupings, and its heads of government meetings are often skipped by leaders of the most significant members.

    Other than turning up to the Commonwealth Games, few recent Australian prime ministers have paid it much attention, compared to our membership of the G20 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

    Nonetheless, the Commonwealth does include a remarkable range of countries ranging from significant states such as India, Canada and South Africa to the many island states of the Pacific and the Caribbean.

    While its work is largely unreported, it does provide a range of international assistance and linkages that otherwise would be out of reach for its smaller and poorer members.

    Why is Trump interested in joining?

    Trump, it can be assumed, has no interest in the Commonwealth as a means of better working with states such as Namibia and Belize.

    The attraction seems to be linked to his strange reverence for royalty and a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of the British sovereign.

    King Charles is head of the Commonwealth through agreement of its members, probably in recognition of the extraordinary commitment his mother showed as the Commonwealth developed out of the old British Empire. Indeed, she clashed several times with her British ministers because of her loyalty to the Commonwealth.

    But unlike the king’s British – and Australian – crown, this is not a position that belongs automatically to the British monarch.

    So, while inviting Trump to Windsor Castle may be the gift of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, admission to the Commonwealth would require the agreement of all its members.

    Given Trump’s demands to acquire Canada and to punish South Africa for recent land expropriation law, it is hard to imagine unanimous enthusiasm.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump is picking fights with leaders around the world. What exactly is his foreign policy approach?

    Most member states are cautious about being too closely linked to either the US or China, although Australia might end up the last true believer in US alliances. Others, such as Ghana and Pakistan, depend considerably on Chinese aid.

    In a world dominated by increasingly autocratic leaders, a middle power like Australia needs as wide a range of friends as possible. Most of us have only a vague sense of what the Commonwealth entails.

    Like all international institutions, the Commonwealth often seems more concerned with grand statements than actual commitment.

    But there is value in a global organisation whose members claim to be committed to:

    democracy and democratic processes, including free and fair elections and representative legislatures; the rule of law and independence of the judiciary; good governance, including a well-trained public service and transparent public accounts; and protection of human rights, freedom of expression, and equality of opportunity.

    Would Trump’s America meet those demands?

    Dennis Altman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump is interested in joining the Commonwealth. It’s not up to him – or even the king – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-interested-in-joining-the-commonwealth-its-not-up-to-him-or-even-the-king-253217

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Pandanus Petter, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Now that an election has been called, Australian voters will go to the polls on May 3 to decide the fate of the first-term, centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    In Australia, national elections are held every three years. The official campaign period only lasts for around a month.

    This time around, Albanese will be seeking to hold onto power after breaking Labor’s nine-year dry spell by beating the more right-leaning Liberal Party, led by Scott Morrison, in 2022.

    Now, he’s up against the Liberals’ new leader, a conservative with a tough guy image, Peter Dutton. It’s looking like a tight race.

    So how do elections work in Australia, who’s contesting for the top spot and why is the race looking so close?

    For Albanese, the honeymoon is over

    Albanese was brought into power in 2022 on the back of dissatisfaction with the long-term and scandal-prone Liberal-National Coalition government.

    At the time, he was considered personally more competent, warm and sensible than Morrison.

    Unfortunately for Albanese, the dissatisfaction and stress about the cost of living hasn’t gone away.

    Governments in Australia almost always win a second term. However, initially high levels of public support have dissipated over the first term. Opinion polls are pointing to a close election, though Albanese’s approval ratings have had a boost in recent weeks.

    At the heart of what makes this such a tight contest are issues shared by many established democracies: the public’s persistent sense of economic hardship in the post-pandemic period and longer-term dissatisfaction with “politics as usual”, combined with an increased focus on party leaders.

    Around the world, incumbents have faced challenges holding onto power over the past year, with voters sweeping out the Conservatives in the United Kingdom and the Democrats in the United States.

    Australia has faced some similar economic challenges, such as relatively high inflation and cost-of-living problems.

    Likewise, Australia – like many other established democracies – has long-term trends of dissatisfaction with major parties and the political system itself.

    However, this distaste with “business as usual” manifests differently in Australia from comparable countries such the UK and US.

    Australia’s voting system

    In Australia, voting is compulsory, and those who fail to turn out face a small fine. Some observers have argued this pushes parties to try to persuade “swing” voters with more moderate policies, rather than rely on their faithful “bases” and court those with more extreme views who are more likely to vote.

    In the UK, by comparison, widespread public distaste with the Conservatives, combined with low turnout and first-past-the-post voting, delivered Keir Steirmer’s Labour Party a dramatic victory. This was despite a limited uptick in support.

    And in the US, turnout in the 2024 election was only about 64%. Donald Trump and the Republicans swept to power last year by channelling a deep anti-establishment sentiment among those people who voted.

    And the country is now so polarised, that the more strongly identifying Democrat and Republican voters who do turn out to vote can’t see eye to eye on highly emotionally charged issues which dominate the parties’ platforms. Independent voters are left without “centrist” options.

    Because Australia’s voting system is different, Dutton is unlikely to follow Trump’s far-right positioning too closely, despite dabbling in the “anti-woke” culture wars.

    It also explains why Albanese’s personal style is usually quite mild-mannered and why he’s unlikely to present himself as a radical reformer.

    However, neither man’s approach has made them wildly popular with the public. This means neither can rely on their own popularity to win over the public.

    Another factor making Australia distinct is that voters rank their choices, with their vote flowing to their second choice if their first choice doesn’t achieve a majority. This means many races in the 150-seat lower house of parliament are won from second place.

    Similarly, seats in the Senate (Australia’s second chamber, with the power to amend or block legislation) are won based on the proportion of votes a party receives in each state or territory. This gives minor parties and independents a better chance at winning seats compared to the lower house.

    This means dissatisfaction with the major parties has in recent years created space for minor parties and a new crop of well-organised independents to get elected and influence policy. In 2022, around one-third of voters helped independents and minor parties take seats off both the Liberals and Labor in the inner cities.

    To win government, Dutton will need to get them back, or take more volatile outer-suburban seats off Labor.

    The big policy concerns

    Against this backdrop, Australian voters both in 2022 and today have a fairly consistent set of policy concerns. And while parties want to be seen addressing them, their messaging isn’t always heard.

    The 2022 Australian Election Study, run by Australian political researchers, revealed that pessimism about the economy and concerns about the cost of living were front of mind when Australians voted out the Liberal-National Coalition government last federal election.

    This time around, one might think some relative improvement in economic factors like unemployment and cuts to interest rates would put a spring in the prime minister’s step.

    However, the public is still very concerned about the day-to-day cost-of-living pressures and practical issues such as access to health care.

    The government’s policy efforts in this direction – for example, tax cuts and subsidies for power bills – have so far not strongly cut through.

    What have the major parties promised?

    Comparing the parties’ platforms, Labor is firmly focused on economic and government service issues to support people in the short term.

    Although expected to announce the election earlier, Albanese was handed the opportunity of delivering an extra budget by a tropical storm in early March. This included spending promises foreshadowed earlier, as well as a new modest tax cut as an election sweetener.

    In the longer term, Labor has promised significant incentives to improve access to free doctor’s visits and focused on investments in women’s health, as well as technological infrastructure.

    Labor is also encouraging more people to fill skill shortages through vocational education and promising to make the transition to renewable energy, while simultaneously supporting local manufacturing.

    The Coalition, for its part, has been critical of these long-term goals and promised to repeal the newly legislated tax cuts in favour of subsidies for petrol. It has focused its message on reduced government spending, while strategically mirroring promises on health to avoid Labor attacks on that front.

    Dutton has also proposed cuts to migration to reduce housing pressures and a controversial plan to build nuclear power plants at the expense of renewables.

    Will these differences in long-term plans cut through? Or are people focused on short-term, hip-pocket concerns?

    This election, whatever the result, will not represent a long-term shifting of loyalties, but rather a precarious compact with distrustful voters looking for relief in uncertain times.

    Pandanus Petter is employed at the Australian National University with funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight? – https://theconversation.com/australians-almost-never-vote-out-a-first-term-government-so-why-is-this-years-election-looking-so-tight-250249

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can Peter Dutton flip Labor voters to rewrite electoral history? It might just work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University

    They are neither as leafy nor as affluent as much of the Liberal heartland, but Peter Dutton believes the outer ring-roads of Australia’s capitals provide the most direct route to power.
    He has been telling his MPs these once-safe Labor-voting suburbs are where the 2025 election can be won.

    From the moment the Queenslander assumed control of the Liberal Party in 2022, he was intent on this suburbs-first strategy, even if it seemed historically unlikely and involved repositioning his formerly business-loyal party as the new tribune of the working class. As he told Minerals Week in September 2023:

    The Liberal Party is the party of the worker. The Labor Party has become the party of the inner city elite and Greens.

    This has been Dutton’s long game. It’s an outsider approach reminiscent of what US President Donald Trump had achieved with disaffected blue-collar Democratic supporters in the United States, and what Boris Johnson managed by turning British Labour supporters in England’s de-industrialised north into Brexiteers and then Conservative voters.



    Read more:
    Labor’s in with a fighting chance, but must work around an unpopular leader

    A political gamble

    It was not the obvious play but it may prove the right one.

    After a tumultuous period in which the Liberals had cycled through three prime ministers and ignored a clear public clamour for policy modernisation on women, anti-corruption and climate change, the Morrison government had been bundled from office.

    Morrison hadn’t merely failed to attract disengaged undecideds in the middle-ground, but had haemorrhaged engaged constituents from some of Australia’s safest Liberal postcodes.

    Nineteen seats came off the Coalition tally in that election, yet Labor’s gain was only nine.

    Something fundamental had happened. Six new centrist independents now sat in Liberal heartland seats – all of them professional women.

    Numerically, they formed a kind of electoral Swiss Guard around the new Labor government’s otherwise weak primary vote and thin (two-seat) parliamentary majority.

    In a sharp visual contrast to the Coalition parties, women made up around half of Anthony Albanese’s new Labor government and he moved to prioritise the very things on which the Coalition had steadfastly refused to budge – including meaningful constitutional recognition of First Peoples.

    Albanese, it seemed, had tuned in to the zeitgeist. He would even go on to break a 102-year record a year later, becoming the first PM to increase his majority by taking a set off the opposition in a byelection. One more urban jewel shifted out of the Liberals’ column.

    Dutton, however, never blinked.

    His first press conference as leader in 2022 had been notable for the absence of the usual mea culpa – a suitably contrite acknowledgement that he’d heard the message from erstwhile Liberals who had abandoned their party for more progressive community independents.

    Instead, Dutton confidently responded that the 2025 election would be decided not in these comfortable seats but in the further-flung parts of Australia’s cities where people make long commutes to work and struggle to find adequate childcare and other services.

    It was a bold strategy because it meant targeting seats with healthy Labor margins.
    Canberra insiders wondered privately if this was brave or simply delusional. Some concluded it could only work as a two-election strategy.

    Many asked where a net gain of 19 seats would come from if not through the recovery of most or all of what became known as the “teal” seats?

    Yet the combative Liberal continued to focus on prising suburbanites away from Labor with a relentless campaign emphasising the rising cost-of-living under Labor.

    Three years later and even accounting for the first interest rate cut in over four years, it is Dutton’s strategy that has looked the more attuned to the electoral zeitgeist.

    So much so that he goes into this election with a realistic chance of breaking another longstanding electoral record: that of replacing a first-term government.

    This hasn’t been done federally since the Great Depression took out the Scullin Labor government of 1929-1931.

    It’s all about geography

    While only votes in ballot boxes will tell, the Coalition’s rebounding support appears to have come from the outer mortgage belt, just as he predicted.

    These voters absorb their political news sporadically via social media feeds, soft breakfast interviews, and car-radio snippets.

    These are media where Dutton’s crisp sound-bite messaging around cost-of-living pressures has simply been sharper and more resonant than Labor’s.

    And it is by this means that these voters may have picked up that a Dutton government would seek to deport dual citizens convicted of serious crimes, stop new migrants from buying property (a policy first ridiculed as inconsequential by Labor and since copied), and cut petrol excise, temporarily taking around $14 off the price of a tank of fuel.

    These voters may have noticed Dutton’s campaign against the supermarket duopoly, which includes the option of forced divestiture for so-called “price-gouging”.

    Recently, he added insurance conglomerates to that divestment hit-list.

    And they might have heard his dramatic nuclear “solution” to high energy costs and emissions (in reality, devilishly complex and expensive).

    On top of these, semi-engaged voters might recall Dutton’s culture-war topics for which he has regularly received generous media minutes, including:

    • his opposition to what he called “the Canberra Voice”
    • his defence of Australia Day
    • his refusal to stand in front of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags
    • his oft-made claim that a Greens-Teals-Labor preoccupation with progressive issues has left the cost-of-living crisis unaddressed.

    Beyond such rhetoric, Dutton has had little to say in detailed policy terms. But will that matter? However comprehensive, Labor’s list of legislated achievements has, arguably, achieved even less purchase in the electoral mind.

    Polls taken as the election campaign neared showed Dutton’s Coalition was well-placed to win seats from Labor in suburban and outer-suburban areas of Perth, Melbourne, and Sydney, as well as regional seats in the NSW Central Coast.

    These include seats such as Tangney and Bullwinkel in outer Perth; McEwen and Chisolm in suburban Melbourne, and as many as seven seats in NSW – mostly on the periphery of Sydney or in the industrial Hunter Valley region.

    There may be other seats to move also. Liberal sources say they like their chances in Goldstein, currently held by the Teal, Zoe Daniel. And with a recent conservative turn in the Northern Territory election to the CLP, seats like the ultra-marginal Lingiari and the numerically safer Solomon could also be in play.

    A YouGov MRP poll reported by the ABC on February 16 put Dutton’s chances of securing an outright majority after the election at 20%.

    It measured the Coalition’s two-party-preferred support at 51.1% over Labor on 48.9%. That represents a swing towards the Coalition of 3.2%. But it is where the swing occurs that matters most.

    Seat-by-seat assessment of the YouGov results suggested the Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats (median), with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80, if a federal election was held today.

    The same modelling indicates Labor would go backwards, holding about 66 seats in the next parliament, with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72. This is just one, albeit unusually large poll, but it will concern Albanese that even on its upper margin of Labor seat holds, he would not retain a majority.

    Of course, the campaign can change things and already, the delayed start caused by Cyclone Alfred introduced further variables in the form of a federal budget, replete with income tax cuts.

    A succession of polls conducted through March point to a Labor recovery with a Redbridge poll of 2,007 respondents, taken over March 3–11 putting Labor ahead 51%–49%. The same poll however showed a majority of people worry that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

    The final contest

    In political circles, people talk about momentum in campaigns, and say things like “the trend is our friend”. If true, that electoral amity has leaned decisively towards Dutton for the past year, and only recently to Labor.

    But caution is always advised. Election counts invariably throw up oddities – swings being more (or less) marked in one state compared to others, and seats retained (or lost) against a broader national trend on the night.

    Such surprises give the lie to the concept of uniform swings and makes prediction of a final seat count more difficult.

    If the polling consensus is broadly correct – rather than being the result of herding – and the source of Dutton’s rising support is former Labor suburbs, the question is, will those vote gains materialise at sufficient scale to translate into seat gains?

    If so, this election could redraw the political map and require new thinking about major party voting bases, policies and strategies into the future.

    The final outcome seems likely to turn on three things:

    1. Dutton’s ability to stay on message about the cost-of-living through the campaign when others in his team, buoyed by Trump’s war on wokeness, want to raise tendentious social issues.

    2. Albanese’s effectiveness in convincing wayward Labor voters that Labor has in fact delivered, that the economy has turned the corner, and that Dutton’s comparative toughness is code for budget cuts that would hit them hardest.

    3. Unforeseen events – at home or abroad.

    The Liberal leader is surprisingly well-placed. But remember, he is coming from a long way back.

    Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Peter Dutton flip Labor voters to rewrite electoral history? It might just work – https://theconversation.com/can-peter-dutton-flip-labor-voters-to-rewrite-electoral-history-it-might-just-work-248664

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s embrace of independent political candidates shows there’s no such thing as a safe seat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University

    At the last federal election, Australia elected the largest lower house crossbench in its post-war federal history.

    In addition to four Greens MPs, Rebekah Sharkie from the Centre Alliance and Bob Katter (with his own micro-party), there were ten independent MPs, seven of them new to parliament. These MPs have the freedom and flexibility to vote on every piece of legislation without having to adhere to any party-room pledge.

    Micro-parties and independents also fared well in the Senate in 2022, thanks in part to the fact that we use proportional representation to elect our senators. In a half-Senate election with 40 vacancies, six went to the Greens, one to Independent ACT candidate David Pocock, one to United Australia Party Senator Ralph Babet and one to Pauline Hanson in Queensland.

    Defections during the 47th parliament grew the crossbench even further. Five former Coalition MPs and Senators have moved to the crossbench, one over allegations of sexual harassment, one over the Voice to Parliament referendum and three over bruising preselection defeats.

    Senator Fatima Payman defected from the Labor Party last year, citing problems with the party’s stance on Palestine, and has now set up the Australia’s Voice party.

    Getting elected

    Independents hardly enjoy a level playing field in federal elections. Brian Costar and Jennifer Curtin pointed out in their book, Rebels with a Cause, that independent candidates lack equal access to the electoral roll, do not initially benefit from the public funding that flows consistently to the major parties, and cannot be listed above the line on the Senate ballot paper unless they form a group or party.

    Unless they are party defectors with a seat in parliament already, independent candidates also lack the advantages of incumbency. Previous research from the Australia Institute has shown the dollar value of an incumbent MP’s entitlements (in terms of their salary and those of staff, printing and travel allowances, public exposure), is about $2.9 million per term.

    Once elected, though, Independents have shown the major parties that they can be very hard to beat. Helen Haines and her predecessor as Member for Indi, Cathy McGowan, have won four consecutive elections between them. Zali Steggall, who famously beat former prime minister Tony Abbott in the electorate of Warringah in 2019, has been re-elected once, and the people of metropolitan Hobart have returned former public servant and whistleblower Andrew Wilkie to Canberra five times in a row.

    No safe seats

    Political parties and journalists have conventionally treated certain seats as “safe” (if the winning party’s vote two-party preferred margin was 60% or higher), others as “fairly safe” (if the winning party’s 2PP margin was between 56% and 60%) and others as “marginal” (those won by less than 56% at the previous election).

    But the days of safe and marginal seats are over. These terms belong to an age of two-party contests and more predictable preference flows. As Bill Browne and Richard Denniss of the Australia Institute have pointed out, the major party vote share has now “crossed a threshold” below which the idea of “safe seats” becomes redundant.

    Independent candidates can win with a relatively low share of the primary vote. In 2022, community independent Kylea Tink won the electorate of North Sydney with 25% of the primary vote, having ranked favourably, but not first, on many voters’ ballots.

    Holding on?

    Several contests involving current crossbenchers may prove nationally influential in the event of a hung parliament. Tink, whose electorate has been abolished in a routine redistribution, will not be among the incumbents hoping to hold their seat.

    The Liberal Party, by some accounts, perceives the Perth seat of Curtin, won by community independent Kate Chaney in 2022, as an important litmus test for the future. January saw a “surge in volunteers and donations” for Liberal candidate Tom White’s campaign, according to media reports.

    Elsewhere, the Liberals are attempting to meet incumbent community independents with candidates that more closely resemble them. The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Jaimee Rogers, is, like the sitting member Zali Steggall, a former athlete with a public profile. Wentworth candidate Ro Knox, a former Deloitte consultant, will run against Allegra Spender, whose own pitch for re-election has emphasised tax reform and productivity.

    In Victoria, Monique Ryan, who won the seat of Kooyong from then-treasurer Josh Frydenberg, will this time face Amelia Hamer, a local woman, professional and grand-niece of former Victorian premier Rupert Hamer.

    There are exceptions to that pattern. Former RSL President James Brown was preselected as the Liberal candidate for Mackellar, currently held by community independent Sophie Scamps. And in Goldstein, there will be a rerun of the previous contest between community independent Zoe Daniel and her Liberal predecessor Tim Wilson.

    At least three of the major party defectors in both houses are hoping to keep their seats, too. Gerard Rennick, formerly a Coalition senator who was denied a winnable spot on the Liberal National Party ticket, has registered the Gerard Rennick People First Party ahead of his bid for re-election this year. Rennick has pointed out that this will get his name “above the line” on the Senate ballot paper.

    Former Liberals Ian Goodenough and Russell Broadbent have both indicated they will run as independents to defend their seats – Moore and Monash respectively – from their erstwhile colleagues.

    Room for growth?

    Despite the watershed result in 2022, the crossbench may grow yet. Fundraising group Climate 200 is reported to be backing up to 35 candidates across the country, and an army of volunteers has already begun to mobilise in support.

    Health professional Carolyn Heise will hope that, with the support of the new campaign fundraiser the Regional Voices Fund, her second campaign in the regional electorate of Cowper may land her in parliament alongside Indi MP Helen Haines.

    The retirement of shadow minister Paul Fletcher as member for Bradfield in inner-Sydney makes for a particularly interesting contest in that electorate. Gisele Kapterian, who won Liberal preselection against Warren Mundine, will campaign against community independent Nicolette Boele, who would need a swing of only 5% in her favour to win on her second attempt.

    In Victoria’s western district, community independent Alex Dyson will attempt for the third time to win the seat of Wannon from shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan. Dyson came close in 2022 and would need only a 4% swing (two-candidate preferred) to win this time.

    In 2022, community groups supported independent candidate Penny Ackery in her campaign against then-minister and now shadow treasurer Angus Taylor. The two-candidate preferred vote left the seat “relatively safe” (in old terms), but declining support for the Coalition saw the state electorate of Wollondilly (within Hume’s borders) elect community independent Judy Hannan in a “surprise win” at the 2023 state election.

    There is plenty of potential for surprise victories and shock defeats at the forthcoming election. Community independents are running in at least four Labor-held seats. What should surprise nobody is that every vote in every seat will count on election day.

    Joshua Black is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Australia Institute.

    – ref. Australia’s embrace of independent political candidates shows there’s no such thing as a safe seat – https://theconversation.com/australias-embrace-of-independent-political-candidates-shows-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-seat-250751

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pandanus Petter, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Now that an election has been called, Australian voters will go to the polls on May 3 to decide the fate of the first-term, centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    In Australia, national elections are held every three years. The official campaign period only lasts for around a month.

    This time around, Albanese will be seeking to hold onto power after breaking Labor’s nine-year dry spell by beating the more right-leaning Liberal Party, led by Scott Morrison, in 2022.

    Now, he’s up against the Liberals’ new leader, a conservative with a tough guy image, Peter Dutton. It’s looking like a tight race.

    So how do elections work in Australia, who’s contesting for the top spot and why is the race looking so close?

    For Albanese, the honeymoon is over

    Albanese was brought into power in 2022 on the back of dissatisfaction with the long-term and scandal-prone Liberal-National Coalition government.

    At the time, he was considered personally more competent, warm and sensible than Morrison.

    Unfortunately for Albanese, the dissatisfaction and stress about the cost of living hasn’t gone away.

    Governments in Australia almost always win a second term. However, initially high levels of public support have dissipated over the first term. Opinion polls are pointing to a close election, though Albanese’s approval ratings have had a boost in recent weeks.

    At the heart of what makes this such a tight contest are issues shared by many established democracies: the public’s persistent sense of economic hardship in the post-pandemic period and longer-term dissatisfaction with “politics as usual”, combined with an increased focus on party leaders.

    Around the world, incumbents have faced challenges holding onto power over the past year, with voters sweeping out the Conservatives in the United Kingdom and the Democrats in the United States.

    Australia has faced some similar economic challenges, such as relatively high inflation and cost-of-living problems.

    Likewise, Australia – like many other established democracies – has long-term trends of dissatisfaction with major parties and the political system itself.

    However, this distaste with “business as usual” manifests differently in Australia from comparable countries such the UK and US.

    Australia’s voting system

    In Australia, voting is compulsory, and those who fail to turn out face a small fine. Some observers have argued this pushes parties to try to persuade “swing” voters with more moderate policies, rather than rely on their faithful “bases” and court those with more extreme views who are more likely to vote.

    In the UK, by comparison, widespread public distaste with the Conservatives, combined with low turnout and first-past-the-post voting, delivered Keir Steirmer’s Labour Party a dramatic victory. This was despite a limited uptick in support.

    And in the US, turnout in the 2024 election was only about 64%. Donald Trump and the Republicans swept to power last year by channelling a deep anti-establishment sentiment among those people who voted.

    And the country is now so polarised, that the more strongly identifying Democrat and Republican voters who do turn out to vote can’t see eye to eye on highly emotionally charged issues which dominate the parties’ platforms. Independent voters are left without “centrist” options.

    Because Australia’s voting system is different, Dutton is unlikely to follow Trump’s far-right positioning too closely, despite dabbling in the “anti-woke” culture wars.

    It also explains why Albanese’s personal style is usually quite mild-mannered and why he’s unlikely to present himself as a radical reformer.

    However, neither man’s approach has made them wildly popular with the public. This means neither can rely on their own popularity to win over the public.

    Another factor making Australia distinct is that voters rank their choices, with their vote flowing to their second choice if their first choice doesn’t achieve a majority. This means many races in the 150-seat lower house of parliament are won from second place.

    Similarly, seats in the Senate (Australia’s second chamber, with the power to amend or block legislation) are won based on the proportion of votes a party receives in each state or territory. This gives minor parties and independents a better chance at winning seats compared to the lower house.

    This means dissatisfaction with the major parties has in recent years created space for minor parties and a new crop of well-organised independents to get elected and influence policy. In 2022, around one-third of voters helped independents and minor parties take seats off both the Liberals and Labor in the inner cities.

    To win government, Dutton will need to get them back, or take more volatile outer-suburban seats off Labor.

    The big policy concerns

    Against this backdrop, Australian voters both in 2022 and today have a fairly consistent set of policy concerns. And while parties want to be seen addressing them, their messaging isn’t always heard.

    The 2022 Australian Election Study, run by Australian political researchers, revealed that pessimism about the economy and concerns about the cost of living were front of mind when Australians voted out the Liberal-National Coalition government last federal election.

    This time around, one might think some relative improvement in economic factors like unemployment and cuts to interest rates would put a spring in the prime minister’s step.

    However, the public is still very concerned about the day-to-day cost-of-living pressures and practical issues such as access to health care.

    The government’s policy efforts in this direction – for example, tax cuts and subsidies for power bills – have so far not strongly cut through.

    What have the major parties promised?

    Comparing the parties’ platforms, Labor is firmly focused on economic and government service issues to support people in the short term.

    Although expected to announce the election earlier, Albanese was handed the opportunity of delivering an extra budget by a tropical storm in early March. This included spending promises foreshadowed earlier, as well as a new modest tax cut as an election sweetener.

    In the longer term, Labor has promised significant incentives to improve access to free doctor’s visits and focused on investments in women’s health, as well as technological infrastructure.

    Labor is also encouraging more people to fill skill shortages through vocational education and promising to make the transition to renewable energy, while simultaneously supporting local manufacturing.

    The Coalition, for its part, has been critical of these long-term goals and promised to repeal the newly legislated tax cuts in favour of subsidies for petrol. It has focused its message on reduced government spending, while strategically mirroring promises on health to avoid Labor attacks on that front.

    Dutton has also proposed cuts to migration to reduce housing pressures and a controversial plan to build nuclear power plants at the expense of renewables.

    Will these differences in long-term plans cut through? Or are people focused on short-term, hip-pocket concerns?

    This election, whatever the result, will not represent a long-term shifting of loyalties, but rather a precarious compact with distrustful voters looking for relief in uncertain times.

    Pandanus Petter is employed at the Australian National University with funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight? – https://theconversation.com/australians-almost-never-vote-out-a-first-term-government-so-why-is-this-years-election-looking-so-tight-250249

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: uninspiring leaders, stressed voters and the shadow of Trump make for an uncertain contest

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The usual story for a first-term government is a loss of seats, as voters send it a message, but ultimate survival.

    It can be a close call. John Howard risked all in 1998 with his GST, and almost lost office, despite having a big majority.

    But you have to go back to 1931 to find a first-term government thrown out.

    So, going into this campaign, Anthony Albanese has the weight of history on his side. But modern day politics is volatile, and the voters are cranky, which has in recent months given the opposition hope it could run the government close or even defy the odds.

    Government and opposition start the formal campaign with the polls close on the two-party vote. In the past few weeks, the government has improved its position, arguably to be now in the lead. If the election were held today, Labor would probably win more seats than the Coalition, and form government.

    But the margins are narrow. With the next parliament, like this one, expected to have a large crossbench, present polling is pointing towards a minority government as a likely outcome. Things can change during a campaign.

    Albanese started the term with substantial public goodwill – although his majority was razor thin, and his 2022 election owed more to the unpopularity of then prime minister Scott Morrison than to any real enthusiasm for Labor.

    If one had to point to the single biggest political mistake the prime minister made, it was his over-investment in the Voice referendum. Whatever one thinks of the proposal itself, Albanese let it distract from what was a growing-cost-of-living crisis. The referendum was probably always destined to fail, but Albanese and the “yes” side were also out-campaigned by the “no” forces, strongest among them opposition spokeswoman Jacinta Price.

    Albanese never properly recovered from the Voice’s defeat.

    Early in the term the government was complacent about its opponents, believing Peter Dutton was unelectable. Indeed, that was a widespread view, including among many on the conservative side of politics. It underestimated Dutton’s strategic and tactical skills, the changing nature of the electorate, and how deeply the cost-of-living crisis – with its dozen interest rate rises under Labor, on top of one under Morrison – would bite.

    Suburbia up for grabs

    What was once ALP heartland, outer suburbia, is now up for grabs. Many of the tradies have become conservatives, to whom Dutton’s blunt, black-and-white political pitch is not just acceptable but potentially attractive.

    Labor’s appeal to working people in this campaign is that that the worst is over on the economy, with unemployment still low and real wages in (slightly) positive territory. The latest national accounts figures showed Australia’s per capita recession, which had lasted seven quarters, was over. The February interest rate fall has also been a plus for the government: it may not be a big vote changer but it has reinforced Labor’s argument that things are going in the right direction.

    The question remains: will people buy the story of life getting better when they are still not back to where they were a few years ago, and continue to feel under the financial pump?

    This week’s budget and Dutton’s reply have homed in on cost of living. The government has come up with modest tax cuts, starting mid next year. These were legislated in a rush before parliament rose, so the Coalition was forced into saying it would repeal them. Dutton countered by promising an immediate cut to the excise on petrol and diesel. The opposition leader also used his budget reply to open another front in the battle over the energy transition, with the promise of a gas reservation scheme.

    In the past month or two, there has been some change in the political atmosphere. Dutton’s momentum seemed to have stalled. The tight internal disciple he had maintained frayed somewhat, with messages over some policy and internal fears Dutton had left policy announcements too late.

    Will voters think they don’t know enough about Peter Dutton?

    The risk for Dutton is that people will fear they’re buying a pig in a poke. He has run a small target strategy; leaders (Howard in 1996, Abbott in 2013) have won on these before.

    But if Dutton’s policy offerings in the campaign fall short, or his policy doesn’t stand up to the forensic scrutiny that comes in a campaign, he is likely to stall. So far, Dutton has established himself as a strong negative campaigner but he has yet to come through as a positive alternative prime minister.

    His signing up to Labor’s $8.5 billion bulk-billing initiative was an example of a short-term tactic to neutralise an issue that raised questions about the Coalition’s inability to produce its own health blueprint.

    The government will mobilise industrial relations against the Coalition, arguing Labor has delivered benefits to workers that a Coalition government would attack. This is risky for Dutton. His plans for slashing the public service, curbing working-from-home and removing the right to disconnect will fuel Labor’s negative campaigning, which will focus too on Dutton’s general plan to cut spending.

    The Trump factor

    A major unknown is what impact overseas events will have on this election. There has been a general swing to the right internationally. But the Trump factor has become a danger for Dutton.

    His opponents seek cast Dutton as Trump-lite. The opposition leader is a critic of Trump on Ukraine, and he’s aware Trumpism is now politically scary for many voters. Nevertheless, Dutton’s pre-occupation with the size of the public service and his emphasis on cuts (without giving detail) will, to some voters, sound like echoes (albeit faint) of Trump. Labor claims its focus groups show people have been increasingly seeing Dutton as Trumpist.

    Trump this week announced tariffs on foreign cars (not a worry to Australia, which doesn’t make any anymore). Next week he’ll announced the next stage in his tariff policy. This will feed into the election campaign. The extent it does will depend on whether Australia is directly hit. The government is busy with intense last-minute lobbying.

    The cost of living is front and centre in the election, but the recent appearance of Chinese ships near Australia and their live-fire exercise has contributed to making national security and defence (especially how much we should be spending on it) issues as well, although second tier for most voters.

    Major attention in this election will be on the performance of independents. Half a dozen so-called teals seized Liberal seats in 2022, and it would be very hard for the Coalition to obtain a majority without regaining some of them. The Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein will be especially closely watched. In New South Wales, one teal seat has already been lost through the redistribution.

    The teals ran last time on climate change, integrity, and equity for women. This election, climate is less to the fore in the voters’ minds, while we now have an anti-corruption body, the National Anti-Corruption Commission. And there is no Scott Morrison, who was a lightning rod for the Liberals’ “women problem”. So in terms of issues, the teals have a harder case to make than before.

    On the other hand, people remain deeply disillusioned with the major parties, and the teals have had plenty of time to dig into their seats. The general “community candidate” movement has strengthened and broadened. Whatever its precise composition, the new House of Representatives is expected to have a large crossbench.

    In the event of a hung parliament, the crossbench will come into play. This means its potential members, especially the teals, will be under pressure during the campaign to indicate what factors they would take into account in deciding to whom to give confidence and supply. They are likely to keep their cards close to their chests.

    The election will also test whether the hardline positions the Greens have taken, on local and foreign issues, have alienated or attracted voters. The Greens are at an historic high with four seats in the lower house. The three of those that are in Queensland will be on the line.

    Given the closeness of the polls as the formal campaign starts, what happens in the coming five weeks, and notably the personal performances of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton could be crucial to the outcome. This is not one of those elections where either side can be confident it has the result in the bag.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: uninspiring leaders, stressed voters and the shadow of Trump make for an uncertain contest – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-uninspiring-leaders-stressed-voters-and-the-shadow-of-trump-make-for-an-uncertain-contest-250775

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese calls May 3 election, with cost of living the central battleground

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Australians will go to the polls on May 3 for an election squarely centred on the cost of living.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Governor-General Sam Mostyn at Yarralumla first thing on Friday morning.

    Later he told an 8am news conference at parliament house the election choice was “between Labor’s plan to keep building or Peter Dutton’s plan to cut.

    “Only Labor has the plan to make you better off over the next three years,” he said. “Now is not the time for cutting and wrecking, punching down.”

    Less than a week after the federal budget and following an earlier delay caused by Cyclone Alfred, the formal campaign starts with government and opposition neck and neck and minority government considered a real possibility.

    But in recent days, the government has gained more momentum and Labor enters the campaign more confident than at the start of the year.

    The aggregated January-March quarterly Newspoll had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49%, but Albanese leading Peter Dutton as preferred PM 45% to 40%. Polling only shows a snapshot of the present, and the campaign itself could be crucial to the election result.

    This is the fourth consecutive election launched off the back of a budget, with both sides this week bidding for voters’ support with big handouts.

    Labor pushed through legislation for its $17 billion tax cut, the first stage of which comes in mid next year. Opposition leader Peter Dutton in his budget reply promised a 12-month halving of excise on petrol and diesel and a gas reservation scheme.

    Labor goes into the election with 78 seats in the lower house, and the Coalition with 57 (counting the seats of two recent Liberal defectors). The large crossbench includes four Greens and half a dozen “teals”.

    With a majority being 76 seats in the new 150-seat parliament, the Coalition needs to win 19 seats for an outright majority. This would require a uniform swing of 5.3% (although swings are not uniform). A swing of less than 1% could take Labor into minority. The Coalition would need a swing of about 3.6% to end with more seats than the government. While all states are important if the result is close, Victoria and NSW are regarded as the crucial battlegrounds.

    If the Coalition won, it would be the first time that a first-term government had been defeated since 1931, during the great depression.

    Since the end of the second world war, while all first term governments have been reelected, each saw a two-party swing against them.

    One challenge for Albanese is that he has only a tiny majority, providing little buffer against a swing.

    The combined vote of the major parties will be something to watch, with the vote steadily declining from 85.47% of the vote just 19 years ago at the 2007 election, to only 68.28% at the 2022 election.

    Labor won the last election with a two-party vote of
    52.13% to the Coalition’s 47.87%.

    As of December 31 2024, 17,939,818 Australians were enrolled to vote.

    The start of the formal campaign follows a long “faux” campaign in which both leaders have been travelling the length and breadth of the country non-stop, with the government making a series of major spending announcement but the opposition holding back on policy.

    Marginal seats based on the redistribution

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese calls May 3 election, with cost of living the central battleground – https://theconversation.com/albanese-calls-may-3-election-with-cost-of-living-the-central-battleground-250774

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Elisapie’s Juno-nominated album: Promoting Inuktitut through music

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Richard Compton, Professor, Department of Linguistics, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

    Singer Elisapie’s fourth album, Inuktitut, has been nominated for album of the year at the 2025 Juno Awards being held this weekend in Vancouver.

    The album features covers of 10 pop and classic rock songs, including the Rolling Stones’s “Wild Horses” and Metallica’s “The Unforgiven,” re-imagined in Inuktitut. Inuktitut is the first language of 33,790 Inuit in Canada, according to the 2021 Census.

    Elisapie’s nomination offers a good opportunity to reflect on the situation of Inuktitut and how creative work, including music, helps promote it.

    Our work touches on the inter-generational transmission of Inuktitut. We share perspectives as a Qallunaaq (non-Inuk) linguist (Richard) and as an Inuk school teacher (Sarah) in Nunavik, with Sarah’s personal experiences in the community highlighted.

    Together, we have co-taught courses for Inuit teachers in Puvirnituq and Ivujivik. We are also both affiliated with a research group focused on Indigenous education based at Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

    Elisapie’s ‘Isumagijunnaitaungituq’ (The Unforgiven)

    Music in Inuktitut

    Sarah notes that:

    I was amazed that [Elsipasie] could make the long words in Inuktitut fit with the rhythm of the music; she did it so precisely. It took me back to the 1980s, when I was growing up. It would have been nice if songs like these had been interpreted back then. It’s been a long time coming, but it shows that nothing is impossible. The songs sound so natural in Inuktitut.

    On the day we talked about this story, Sarah remembered:

    I was at the Snow Festival yesterday [in Puvirnituq], and some of the teenagers knew all the words to her songs and were singing along. We didn’t have that when I was growing up.

    She remembers first seeing Elisapie sing in the early 1990s at one of the first snow festivals in Puvirnituq.

    Elisapie’s album has also sparked interest outside of Canada, with stories in such venues as Rolling Stone, Vogue and Le Monde.

    Beyond how Elisapie beautifully interprets the songs, creative choices like using throat singing on the first track, “Isumagijunnaitaungituq (The Unforgiven),” and stunning music videos showcasing life in the North brings the language to a wider audience.

    The album’s cover art features the word Inuktitut, ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ, in syllabics — a writing system originally use for Cree and adapted to Inuktitut, where the individual symbols represent consonants and the way they point represents vowels.

    Elisapie’s ‘Taimangalimaaq’ (Time After Time)

    Diversity of the Inuit language

    The word Inuktitut itself means “like the Inuit,” and is the name for part of a wider language continuum spoken across the North American Arctic. This language continuum includes Iñupiaq in Alaska, Uummarmiutun, Sallirmiutun and Inuinnaqtun in the Western Canadian Arctic, Inuktitut in the Eastern Arctic, Inuttut in Labrador and Kalaallisut in Greenland.

    This abundance of names reflects a diversity of varieties, each with their own pronunciations and differences in grammar and vocabulary stretching across Inuit Nunangat, the Inuit homeland.

    Speakers in each community look to their Elders as models of how the language should be spoken. While this multiplicity of dialects poses challenges for translation and creating teaching materials, each variety marks local identity and links generations.

    This diversity also fascinates linguists, as each variety attests to a different way of organizing the unconscious rules of grammar in the human mind.

    For instance, Inuktitut has a rich system of tense markers on verbs, signalling events that just happened, happened earlier today, before today or long ago. Inuinnaqtun, to the west, lacks most of these tense markers, but instead allows more complex combinations of sounds.

    A role model for youth

    Sarah stresses the importance of Elisapie’s music for the language:

    It’s so impressive that people like Elisapie are doing such amazing things with the language. She grew up around the same time as me and when I was in school there were so few teaching materials in Inuktitut, and we focused more on speaking than reading and writing. Even if her main goal might not have been to promote the language, she’s doing it, because kids listen to her. More teenagers are willing to sing in Inuktitut now because they have role models like her and Beatrice Deer.

    Deer is an Inuk and Mohawk musician from Quaqtaq, Nunavik, who also sings in Inuktitut, as well as English and French.

    Indigenous language education rights

    In Canada, all levels of government have failed to provide adequate access to education in Indigenous languages, even in regions where Indigenous Peoples form the majority.

    In Nunavik, where Elisapie is from, 90 per cent of the population (12,590 out of 14,050) identifies as Inuit and 87 per cent (12,245 out of 14,050) report Inuktitut as their first language. And yet Inuktitut is only the primary language of instruction up until Grade 3.

    About promoting Inuktitut, Sarah says:

    We’re lucky that in most of the villages in Nunavik, the language is still strong. But it’s still concerning that some people have started speaking in English to their kids. What we really need to promote it is to have school in Inuktitut from kindergarten to the end of high school [secondary 5 in Québec]. That’s why a group of Inuit teachers, including me, visited Greenland to learn more about their education system. They’ve had schools in their language for almost 200 years. We just started in the ‘50s.

    While bilingualism may bring economic benefits, the lack of support for Indigenous languages often results in a situation where bilingualism robs children of the chance to fully develop in their first language.

    Right to education in Indigenous language

    In addition to violating Indigenous Peoples’ inherent right to get an education in their language (see the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples), current education policies also go against recommendations of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

    UNESCO recommends that Indigenous minority languages be taught as the primary language in school for the first six to eight years, as this has been shown to contribute to children’s well-being and self-esteem.

    Unfortunately, Canada’s official language laws continue to place the two colonial languages of English and French above Indigenous languages, particularly in education funding.



    Read more:
    Ancestral languages are essential to Indigenous identities in Canada

    New challenges have also emerged for maintaining and extending the domains in which Inuktitut is used. Once cut off from high-speed internet, new satellite technology has brought access to more Inuit communities, along with new economic opportunities.

    However, this connectivity also brings an avalanche of English content, from viral videos and streaming platforms to social networks and mobile games.

    Vital for promoting Inuktitut

    It is in this changing linguistic and media landscape where Inuktitut language and cultural production, like Elisapie’s album, are vital for promoting Inuktitut.

    Children and teenagers need content that speaks to them — things they see as new, fun, cool and representing their generation. This includes music, comic books, novels, video games and even Hockey Night in Canada in Inuktitut.

    So whether Elisapie’s music is being played in community radio stations, featured in an episode of CBC’s North of North or streamed as a music video on social media, it serves the added role of taking up a little more space for Inuktitut in people’s daily lives.

    Richard Compton receives funding in the form of research grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He holds the Canada Research Chair in Transmission and Knowledge of the Inuit Language.

    Sarah Angiyou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elisapie’s Juno-nominated album: Promoting Inuktitut through music – https://theconversation.com/elisapies-juno-nominated-album-promoting-inuktitut-through-music-251774

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why Muslims often don’t celebrate Eid on the same day – even within one country

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zuleyha Keskin, Associate Professor of Islamic Studies, Charles Sturt University

    Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    Eid is a special time for Muslims. There are two major Eid celebrations each year: Eid al-Fitr is celebrated at the end of Ramadan, the month of fasting, and Eid al-Adha is connected to the dates of Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia.

    Eid, which means “festival” or “feast” in Arabic, is a celebratory occasion for more than one billion Muslims worldwide. However, in some countries, especially multicultural ones like Australia, Muslims don’t always celebrate Eid on the same day. Here’s why.

    Worshippers pray outside the Taj Mahal on Eid al-Fitr. Muslim emperor Shah Jahan commissioned the mausoleum in 1631 to hold his wife’s tomb.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    Eid comes 10-12 days earlier each year

    Beyond different groups celebrating on different days, the timing of Eid celebrations also shift as a whole each year. That’s because Islam follows the lunar calendar, based on the moon’s cycles – unlike the Gregorian calendar, which follows the sun.

    As such, dates on the Islamic calendar come 10–12 days earlier each year. This means the dates of both Eids also move about 11 days forward each year.

    In terms of the Islamic calendar:

    • Eid al-Fitr happens on the 1st of the month of Shawwal (the 10th month), which comes right after the month of Ramadan.
    • Eid al-Adha happens on the 10th of Dhul-Hijjah (the 12th month), during Hajj.

    What about local discrepancies?

    Since Islam follows the lunar calendar, determining the start of each Islamic month, and the dates of both Eids, requires sighting the new crescent moon, which comes directly after the new moon (the phase in which the moon is invisible).

    But there are different methods for doing this, and different scholarly interpretations regarding what method is best. These variations are the reason one group in a community might celebrate on a Sunday, while others may celebrate on a Monday.

    The Islamic month of Ramadan lasts 29 to 30 days, from one sighting of the crescent moon to the next. Moon sighting approaches can vary between countries, communities and even households.
    Shutterstock

    Some Muslims believe each country should rely on its own local moon sighting.

    This means if the new crescent moon is visible in neighbouring countries, but not in Australia (such as if it’s hidden behind clouds), then Australia should celebrate a day after its neighbours. The organisation Moonsighting Australia follows this method, only declaring Eid when the moon is seen locally.

    However, others argue if the moon has been sighted anywhere in the world, it should be accepted by all Muslims as the start of the new Islamic month. Some Muslims in Australia opt for this “global moon sighting” approach, following Saudi Arabia’s Eid announcement even when the moon is not sighted locally.

    As far back as the early centuries AD, people in the Arab world used astrolabes to survey the skies. This instrument belonged to Yemeni sultan, mathematician and astronomer Al-Ashraf Umar II (circa 1242-1296).
    Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Apart from the question of where the crescent moon is sighted, there are also different views over how it should be sighted. Many scholars believe in physically sighting it with the eyes, as was practised during the time of Prophet Muhammad.

    But some Muslim countries, such as in Turkey and parts of Europe, use astronomical calculations to predict the new moon’s birth. This allows them to pre-set the date of Eid months, or even years, in advance.

    Australia versus majority-Muslim countries

    In Muslim-majority countries, deciding the day of Eid happens at a government level.

    For example, in Saudi Arabia, the Supreme Court officially declares the date based on moon sighting reports. This decision sets the timing for Eid prayers and public holidays for the entire nation, allowing for unified celebrations across the country.

    But Muslims in Australia come from diverse cultural backgrounds, and hold varying views regarding how the moon should be sighted. Some may follow the Eid announcement from their country of origin. Others may rely on local announcements, or on dates set by peak bodies such as the Australian National Imams Council.

    One 2023 report published by the ISRA Academy surveyed more than 5,500 Muslims in Australia to understand how they determined the date of Eid.

    The findings reveal notable differences across communities. Respondents from the Arab community were almost evenly split between following their local mosque (28.5%) and the Australian National Imams Council (28.0%), with a slightly lower percentage (23.9%) following Moonsighting Australia. Only 0.6% followed their country of origin.

    Among the Turkish community, 16.1% followed their country of origin, while the largest proportion (28.5%) relied on a local mosque or Islamic organisation. But given Turkish mosques tend to follow Turkey’s state religious institution, Diyanet, most Australian Turks (44.6%) ultimately align with Turkey’s decision on Eid.

    Of the others, 18.8% followed Moonsighting Australia and 14.6% following the national imams’ council.

    In the African Muslim community, 48.4% followed Moonsighting Australia, while 32.8% relied on a local mosque, and 11.7% on the imams’ council.

    Eid celebrations will keep evolving

    While celebrating Eid on different days may seem divisive and fragmenting, there are positive aspects to this.

    For one thing, it means Australian Muslims actively seek out information from various religious authorities. This reflects a high level of public engagement in religious decisions – rather than following blindly.

    The strong influence of organisations such as the Australian National Imams Council and Moonsighting Australia also suggests local religious institutions are a trusted source for guidance.

    Moreover, the high percentage of Muslims now following Moonsighting Australia indicates a trend towards a localised determination of Eid. And this trend will likely become stronger with the emergence of third- and fourth- generation Australian Muslims who are less connected with their ancestral homelands.

    Only time will tell whether most Australian Muslims will eventually celebrate Eid on the same day. In the meantime, families and communities continue to navigate these differences with understanding and respect.

    Zuleyha Keskin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Muslims often don’t celebrate Eid on the same day – even within one country – https://theconversation.com/why-muslims-often-dont-celebrate-eid-on-the-same-day-even-within-one-country-248227

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 25 years into a new century and housing is less affordable than ever

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Coates, Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute

    Of all the problems facing Australia today, few have worsened so rapidly in the past 25 years as housing affordability.

    Housing has become more and more expensive – to rent or buy – and home ownership continues to fall among poorer Australians of all ages.

    Housing makes up most of Australia’s wealth, so more expensive homes concentrated in fewer hands means growing wealth inequality, with a marked generational divide.

    To unwind inequality, we need to make housing cheaper, and that means building much more of it.

    Housing has become more expensive

    The price of the typical Australian home has grown much faster than incomes since the turn of the century: from about four times median incomes in the early 2000s, to more than eight times today, and nearly 10 times in Sydney.

    Housing has also become more expensive to rent, especially since the pandemic.

    Rental vacancy rates are at record lows and asking rents (that is for newly advertised properties) have risen fast – by roughly 20% in Sydney and Melbourne in the past four years, and by much more in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.

    Home ownership is falling fast among the young

    Rising house prices are pushing home ownership out of reach for many younger Australians.

    In the early 1990s it took about six years to save a 20% deposit for a typical dwelling for an average household. It now takes more than 12 years.

    Unsurprisingly, home ownership rates are falling fastest for younger people. Whereas 57% of 30–34 year-olds owned their home in 2001, just 50% did so by 2021. And just 36% of 25–29 year olds own their home today, down from 43% in 2001.

    And home ownership is falling fastest among the poorest 40% of each age group.

    Fewer homeowners means more inequality

    People on low incomes, who are increasingly renters, are spending more of their incomes on housing.

    The real incomes of the lowest fifth of households increased by about 26% between 2003–04 and 2019–20. But more than half of this was chewed up by skyrocketing housing costs, with real incomes after housing costs increasing by only 12%.

    In contrast, the real incomes for the highest fifth of households increased by 47%, and their after-housing real incomes by almost as much: 43%.

    Wealth inequality in Australia is still around the OECD average but has been climbing for two decades, largely due to rising house prices.

    In 2019–20, one-quarter of homeowning households reported net wealth exceeding $1 million. By contrast, median net wealth for non-homeowning households was $60,000.

    Since 2003–04, the wealth of high-income households has grown by more than 50%, much of that due to increasing property values. By contrast, the wealth of low-income households – mostly non-homeowners – has grown by less than 10%.

    The growing divide between the housing “haves” and “have nots” is largely generational. Older Australians who bought their homes before prices really took off in the early 2000s have seen their share of the country’s wealth steadily climb.

    This inequality will get baked in as wealth is passed onto the next generation.

    Some Australians will be lucky enough to inherit one or more homes. Others – typically those on lower incomes – will receive none.

    To unwind inequality, we need to make housing less expensive

    We haven’t built enough

    Australians’ demand for housing since the turn of the decade is a story of historically low interest rates, increased access to finance, tax and welfare settings that favour investments in housing, and a booming population.

    But one widely-blamed villain – the introduction of the 50% capital gains tax discount in 1999, together with negative gearing – is likely to have played only a small part in rising house prices.

    That’s because the value of these tax advantages – about $10.9 billion a year – is tiny compared to Australia’s $11 trillion housing market.

    Instead, the biggest problem is that housing construction in recent years hasn’t kept up with increasing demand.

    Strong migration over the past two decades has seen Australia’s population rise much faster than most other wealthy countries in recent decades, boosting the number of homes we need. Rising incomes, and demographic trends such as rising rates of divorce and an ageing Australia, have further increased housing demand.

    Yet Australia has one of the lowest levels of housing per person of any OECD country, and is one of only four OECD countries where the amount of housing per person went backwards over the past two decades.

    This is largely a failure of housing policy. Australia’s land-use planning rules – the rules that dictate what can get built where – are highly restrictive and complex. Current rules and community opposition make it very difficult to build new homes, particularly in the places where people most want to live and work.

    More homes would mean less inequality

    Fixing this will allow mores home to get built, moderate house price growth, and reduce barriers to home ownership. In turn, this will reduce the inequalities created by our broken housing system.

    Easing planning restrictions is hard for governments, because many residents don’t want more homes near theirs.

    The good news is that the penny has started to drop and state governments – particularly in Victoria and New South Wales – are making meaningful progress towards allowing more homes in activity centres and on existing transport links.

    But now the real test begins: how will governments respond to the backlash from people who would prefer their communities to stay the same?

    How well governments hold the line against the so-called NIMBYs (Not In My Back Yard) will tell us a lot about what we can expect to happen to inequality in Australia in the future.

    Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the federal and Victorian governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.

    Joey Moloney and Matthew Bowes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 25 years into a new century and housing is less affordable than ever – https://theconversation.com/25-years-into-a-new-century-and-housing-is-less-affordable-than-ever-250067

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How can I tell if my child is too sick to go to school?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Sturgiss, Professor of Community Medicine and Clinical Education, Bond University

    Chay_Tay/Shutterstock

    As a GP and mum to two boys I have many experiences of trying to navigate the school morning when my boys aren’t feeling well. It always seems to happen on the busiest days.

    None of us want to send our child to school when they are not well – I hate the thought of my kids feeling sick in the classroom and also the idea they might make other children sick.

    Lots of families have someone for whom illnesses are more dangerous. They might have a weakened immune system because they are going through cancer treatment or suffer from another illness.

    But it can be hard to tell. A child might be dramatically crying “my tummy HURTS” one minute and racing around with their sibling the next. Or you might wonder if they are angling for some time off in front of the TV.

    How can you tell if your child is too sick to go to school?

    None of us want to send our child to school when they are not well.
    Pixel Shot/ Shutterstock

    Symptoms to look out for

    In school-aged children here are some symptoms to consider.

    Fever: if your child feels hot to touch, or you have a thermometer showing a fever (a temperature above 38 degrees), then they shouldn’t attend school.

    This is even if you are giving them regular paracetamol or ibuprofen to keep their temperature down. Your child won’t feel comfortable at school with a fever and they have a high chance of making others unwell.

    Vomiting and diarrhoea: children should stay home until it is at least 24 hours since their last vomit or runny poo. This is to reduce the spread of viral gastroenteritis (or stomach flu) and to make sure your child can stay hydrated and well. If your child is vomiting or has diarrhoea, it also is important to keep a close eye on them to make sure they are improving and to seek medical care if they are getting worse.

    Runny noses: a runny nose without a fever might be a sign of hayfever, especially if your child has other symptoms like itchy eyes or sneezing. On its own, this is not a reason to stay home.

    But a new runny nose with a fever is a reason to stay home. Many infections, including influenza, COVID and even measles can start with a fever and runny nose, although usually it signals a common cold.

    The common cold needs rest, fluids and encouraging your child to keep their nose clear with gentle blowing or saline sprays. And a reminder, the annual flu vaccine is an excellent way to protect your family from the serious consequences of the “proper flu”.

    Cough: there are many different reasons for a child to cough. This includes infections such as COVID, whooping cough and influenza and non-infectious reasons such as hayfever and reflux. If your child has developed a new cough, and especially if they are also feverish, this is a reason to keep them at home. A cough that doesn’t go away after two weeks should also be checked out by your GP.

    Tiredness: mostly on Fridays, my kids are tired after a busy week – much like me! Tiredness can be an early sign of a lurking infection or some other health issue. But on its own is probably not a reason to keep your child home. However, ongoing tiredness is a good reason to have your child checked out by your GP as there are many causes from poor sleep to iron deficiency.

    Poor appetite: kids’ appetites can vary so wildly, especially when they move into growing phases. Not wanting to eat breakfast in the morning might be an early gastro infection, a sign of constipation or nervous butterflies for the day ahead. If your child is otherwise OK, with no tummy pain, fever or tiredness, then a lack of appetite for breakfast is not a solid reason to stay home.

    It’s common for kids to feel tired, but this on its own is not a reason to skip school.
    Andrew Will/ Shutterstock

    Watch out for school refusal

    I find it helpful to let my child know if they stay home, they will need to stay in bed with no screens to rest and get well. This tends to separate the “truly feeling unwell” days from the “just hoping to have a rest” days.

    But feeling unwell in the morning – particularly in the tummy, tiredness or unexplained headaches – can be an early sign something might not be going smoothly for your child at school or home.

    School refusal is a serious problem where a child is completely overwhelmed and unable to attend school. It can come on gradually or suddenly. Talking with your child’s school is a critical first step if you are concerned about school refusal – it should be a conversation that happens promptly and your school should have procedures for helping you to manage it.



    Read more:
    Is it school reluctance or refusal? How to tell the difference and help your child

    Phone a friend

    If you’re not sure, consider giving a trusted friends or family member a quick call to talk things over.

    You can also contact Healthdirect on 1800 022 222 (or 13 Health if you are in Queensland). This is a national phone service open 24 hours for anyone who has symptoms and needs advice on what to do next.

    Liz Sturgiss receives funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, RACGP Foundation, Diabetes Australia and VicHealth that is unrelated to this article. She is affiliated with Australian Journal of Primary Health (CSIRO), Australian Prescriber, RACGP, NAPCRG, Guidelines Development Committee for the review and update of the Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Management of Overweight and Obesity in Adults, Adolescents and Children in Australia and Australasian Association for Academic Primary Care.

    – ref. How can I tell if my child is too sick to go to school? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-i-tell-if-my-child-is-too-sick-to-go-to-school-252731

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition wants to increase Medicare psychology rebates from 10 to 20 sessions. Here’s what happened last time

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Enticott, Associate Professor, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation, Monash University

    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    The most disadvantaged Australians have long experienced higher rates of mental illness than the broader population. But they also access fewer mental health services.

    Increasing everyone’s access to mental health care led to the creation of the Better Access initiative, which subsidised psychology sessions under Medicare. Officially called Better Access to Psychiatrists, Psychologists and General Practitioners through the Medicare Benefits Schedule, the Howard government launched the initiative in November 2006.

    During COVID, the former Morrison Coalition government temporarily expanded the yearly cap on the number of psychology sessions, from ten to 20. The Labor Albanese government reverted to ten sessions at the end of 2022.

    Now the Coalition says if elected at this year’s polls, it will take the number of sessions back to 20.

    But did capping sessions at 20 increase access to mental health care, especially for disadvantaged Australians? Or are there more effective ways to achieve this?

    How does it work?

    Australians can access up to ten rebated psychology sessions annually. Patients need to have a mental health treatment or management plan from their GP or psychiatrist.


    The Australian Psychological Society recommends consultation fees of around $311 for a standard 46- to 60-minute consultation.

    The typical Medicare rebate is $141.85 per session with a clinical psychologist and $96.65 with other registered psychologists. (All psychologists are university qualified mental health professionals, but clinical psychologists have more qualifications.)

    Psychologists can choose their own fees. They can bulk bill (no out of pocket cost for patients) or charge consultation fees, leaving some patients hundreds of dollars out of pocket for each session.

    How did access change during COVID?

    To assess the changes during COVID, we need to consider three components: number of people accessing services, service use rates (number of sessions per population) and the average number of sessions per patient.

    1. Number of people accessing services

    In 2020-21, all states saw a 5% jump in the number of people accessing Medicare mental health services, coinciding with the first year of the COVID pandemic.

    In the three years prior to this, there was an average yearly increase of about 3% more people.

    However, a 2022 independent evaluation of the Better Access initiative showed that between 2018 and 2021, new users declined from 56% to 50%, with the steepest drop between 2020 and 2021.

    This reduction in new users coincided with the temporary increased cap to 20 sessions.

    Australians from disadvantaged backgrounds continued to have poorer access to psychologists than those from wealthier population groups, despite an increase in the number of sessions.

    2. Service use rates (number of sessions per population)

    Service use rates tell us how much a particular service is being used each year. To compare service use rates between different years, and because the Australian population is growing yearly, we report service use rates per 1,000 people in the population.

    In 2020-21, service use rates for clinical psychologists and other psychologists increased by 18%. This was a large increase compared to the typical 5% increases in previous years. This persisted in the next two years.

    When the cap on number of sessions was reduced to ten sessions, there was a small drop in service use rates, but it didn’t return to the pre-pandemic levels.

    Most clients use ten or fewer sessions a year.
    Ben Bryant/Shutterstock

    3. Average number of sessions people used

    The increase in services occurring in the first two years of the COVID pandemic (and around the time as the cap temporarily increased from ten to 20 sessions), resulted in a small increase in the average number of sessions per patient.

    In the ten years between 2013-14 and 2022-23, average number of sessions with a clinical psychologist increased from five to six sessions whereas the average number of sessions with other psychologists increased from four to five sessions.

    Importantly, more than 80% of people received fewer than ten sessions.

    What does this tell us?

    Overall, most people used ten or fewer sessions, even when up to 20 sessions were available.

    Some extra services were provided to existing clients during COVID and this may have actually prevented new people from receiving services.

    So the evidence suggests simply increasing the number of rebated psychology sessions from ten to 20 for everybody isn’t the most effective approach.

    What should Labor and the Coalition do instead?

    We don’t limit the number of chemotherapy sessions for cancer patients, so why do we cap evidence-based psychological treatments for mental illness?

    Instead of capping access to Medicare rebates for mental health care, access should be based on a person’s needs and treatment outcomes. The number of sessions should be determined collaboratively between the person and the provider, ensuring people receive the appropriate level of evidence-based care for their condition.

    Measure outcomes

    Currently in Australia for Medicare-funded mental health services, we only measure service activity. Patient outcomes are not collected, which hinders the development of value-based mental health care.

    Without collecting outcomes, current initiatives to address inequities are only partially informed and may not work as intended.

    We urgently need to establish a set of outcomes (patient-reported outcome measures and experience measures) through consensus with the community, providers, professional organisations and governments.

    Address affordability

    We should also address inequities, such as gap fees that act as barriers to accessing services.

    Greater rebates and bulk billing incentives for vulnerable people can assist those with less money.

    Offer other evidence-based support

    Evidence also suggests people with mild to moderate mental health problems can benefit from psychological and social supports provided by people who are non-health-care professionals, such as the Friendship Bench and digital mental health programs.

    We need to develop and invest in a range of services that cater to differing levels of need. This would ensure more specialised services are available for those with higher complexity or severity.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Coalition wants to increase Medicare psychology rebates from 10 to 20 sessions. Here’s what happened last time – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-wants-to-increase-medicare-psychology-rebates-from-10-to-20-sessions-heres-what-happened-last-time-249606

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Reliable science takes time. But the current system rewards speed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Chin, Senior Lecturer, College of Law, Australian National University

    P.Cartwright/Shutterstock

    Lately, there have been many headlines on scientific fraud and journal article retractions. If this trend continues, it represents a serious threat to public trust in science.

    One way to tackle this problem – and ensure public trust in science remains high – may be to slow it down. We sometimes refer to this philosophy as “slow science”. Akin to the slow food movement, slow science prioritises quality over speed and seeks to buck incentive structures that promote mass production.

    Slow science may not represent an obvious way to improve science because we often equate science with progress, and slowing down progress does not sound very appealing. However, progress is not just about speed, but about basing important societal decisions on strong scientific foundations. And this takes time.

    Unfortunately, the pressures and incentives modern scientists face are almost universally against slow science. Secure, permanent university jobs are scarce, and with budget cuts, this appears to be getting worse.

    As a result, the pressure to publish has never been higher. Indeed, in my yearly performance meetings, I am asked how many articles I’ve published and what is the status of the journals I published in. I am not asked how robust my methods are and how discerning my peer reviewers were.

    The problems with fast science

    Our current “fast science” approach has produced a host of problems.

    Much as with fast food, scientists are incentivised to produce as much science as possible in as little time as possible. This can mean cutting corners. We know, for instance, that larger samples lead to more trustworthy results because they are more likely to be representative of the relevant population. However, collecting large samples takes time and resources.

    Fast science is also associated with gaming the system. As a hypothetical example, an educational scientist might collect data to find evidence for their theory that a new teaching style promotes better learning. Then, they look at the data and realise the intervention did not quite improve learning. But if you squint at it, there might be a trend if you drop a couple of pesky outliers that didn’t see a benefit. So, they do just that.

    This an example of what’s known as a “questionable research practice”, because it’s not considered outright fraud by conventional standards. Surveys in many fields suggest these practices are widespread, with about 50% of scientists saying they have engaged in them at least once.

    Fast science is also associated with more obviously unethical practices.

    Reports of fabricated data are likely due, in part, to scientists trying to publish as quickly as possible. An industry has even sprung up around scientific fraud – what are known as “paper mills”. These organisations produce articles around fabricated data and then sell authorship to those papers.

    Surveys have shown about 50% of scientists have engaged in questionable research practices such as slightly tweaking research data.
    National Cancer Institute/Unsplash

    Why trustworthy science takes time

    So, what does slow science look like and how can it help?

    The late English statistician Douglas Altman provided one of the most famous descriptions of the slow science mantra: “We need less research, better research, and research done for the right reasons”.

    In many ways, it is the opposite of fast science: large samples and careful, well-documented, transparent practices.

    Recall the hypothetical example of the scientists testing a new education practice. Rather than immediately jumping into data collection, the slow practice would be to first write a “registered report”. In other words, scientists would write out their theory and how they propose to test that theory, and send that out for peer review prior to collecting data.

    The journal would then follow the normal process of soliciting peer reviews and allowing the scientists to revise their report in response to those reviews. Then, the authors would collect data, with publication in the journal being assured as long as they follow the agreed upon methods.

    There are two major benefits to registered reports: it allows for peer feedback while it is still possible to improve the study and it removes an incentive to engage in questionable or fraudulent practices. Using the registered report format can take longer. But it is associated with more credible findings.

    Two other slow practices worth mentioning are conducting research in a way that is reproducible and correcting errors in the existing body of research.

    In theory, all science should be reproducible. That is, scientists should share their methods and data such that other scientists can both verify that work and build on it (developing new recipes, to continue the analogy to slow food).

    Similarly, cleaning up the scientific record is incredibly important. For the same reasons that chef Gordon Ramsay likes to a clean a kitchen out before improving it, science needs to get a handle on what existing findings are reliable before we can build on them.

    This means carefully going through existing publications to find studies that show indications of being fabricated or otherwise unreliable. This sleuthing is rare among university scientists because it does not typically result in publications. But it is highly important.

    Slow science is the opposite of fast science: large samples and careful, well-documented, transparent practices.
    National Cancer Institute/Unsplash

    Slow science is slowly gaining steam

    Currently, it requires bravery to engage in slow science.

    Universities are keen to move up the university rankings lists. Those rankings are driven by publishing. So, universities hire, promote and retain their scientists based on their publications. This makes it risky to slow down.

    There are, however, some reasons to hope. Movements are afoot to redefine research quality to take into account more aspects of slow science.

    The Declaration on Research Assessment is a worldwide initiative to move away from ranking systems that ignore the principles of slow science.

    Grassroots organisations are also creating platforms for more open and exacting peer review.

    And advocates for more careful research practices have recently been appointed to important positions, such as with research funders and academic journals.

    These developments are worth following and building upon because society does not need heaps of low-quality science. It needs science that deserves trust.

    Jason Chin is affiliated with the Association for Interdisciplinary Metaresearch and Open Science (AIMOS), a charity that promotes the study and improvement of research methods. AIMOS is a co-founder of the open peer-review platform, MetaROR.

    – ref. Reliable science takes time. But the current system rewards speed – https://theconversation.com/reliable-science-takes-time-but-the-current-system-rewards-speed-249497

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Serena Williams joining the WNBA’s Toronto Tempo as a part-owner is so important for women’s sports

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Treisha Hylton, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Social Work, Wilfrid Laurier University

    Tennis legend Serena Williams is now part of the ownership group of the Toronto Tempo, marking a significant moment for women’s professional sports. The Toronto Tempo is set to kick off their inaugural WNBA season in 2026 and her involvement will help secure the longevity, success and impact the team.

    There has never been a better and more exciting time to be a fan, advocate and researcher of women’s professional sports. Momentum continues to build toward the ultimate goal of achieving equity in sports, and it’s clear that real progress is being made.

    Back in 2023, I attended the first WNBA exhibition game in Canada at Scotiabank Arena. The overwhelming support and enthusiasm made it clear that Toronto was ready to embrace and support women’s professional sports. Fast forward three years, and that vision is fast becoming a reality.

    Women’s professional sports are at an all-time high. Canada’s first professional women’s soccer league set to commence its inaugural season in April, the WNBA continues to expand and the Professional Women’s Hockey League keeps setting attendance records.

    Across the board, media coverage is skyrocketing for women’s sports. Opportunities for women and girls in sport have never been greater. All this and Williams’ investment in the Toronto Tempo is a fitting milestone to celebrate during Women’s History Month.

    A new era for women’s sports

    Williams is a trailblazer and widely considered one of the greatest tennis players of all time. She dominated tennis for years, made history and broke barriers, all while proudly being herself in the face of discrimination, blatant double standards and constant ridicule.

    She stands as an example of excellence and perseverance in women’s sports and social justice.

    Williams is a role model for many Black women and girls, athletes and non-athletes alike. Her new role as a part-owner of the Toronto Tempo holds just as much significance as her ground-breaking career in tennis. Now, she is once again paving the way by demonstrating how women, particularly Black women, can break into leadership positions in professional sports.

    Williams highlighted the significance of her new role, stating:

    “This moment is not just about basketball. It is about showcasing the true value and potential of female athletes. I have always said that women’s sports are an incredible investment opportunity.”

    Her commitment to advancing women’s sports is nothing new. Williams is also a founding owner of the National Women’s Soccer League’s Angel City FC. The WNBA, and other sports leagues, need more women like Williams in ownership and executive positions to drive real change.

    Despite the progress made toward equity in women’s professional sports, there is still a staggering difference in pay and representation in leadership roles.

    A glaring example is tennis star Coco Gauff, the highest-paid woman athlete of 2024, who didn’t even make it into the top 100 highest-paid athletes. This highlights the persistent gap in earnings and need for continued advocacy for pay equity in professional sports.

    Black women in sport leadership

    Black women remain vastly underrepresented in sports leadership roles, including as owners, CEOs, coaches and presidents. In the WNBA, where 70 per cent of the players are Black, there is currently only one Black woman head coach.

    There is a clear need for meaningful representation at all levels of the game. Leadership must reflect the diversity of the athletes on the court.

    For the WNBA and other women’s professional sports leagues to achieve equity, Black women must be better represented in leadership positions. The focus needs to go beyond token representation toward true representation to inspire future generations of young Black girls.

    Serena Williams’ investment in the Toronto Tempo is a step in the right direction. Equally significant is the appointment of Monica Wright Rogers, a former collegiate player and experienced executive, as the team’s new general manager.

    Together, Williams and Rogers represent the progress being made toward better representation of Black women in leadership roles.

    Elevating women’s sports

    The fight for racial and gender equality in sports is far from finished. The Toronto Tempo is a business first, and centring community must be part of its investment strategy.

    The Tempo must prioritize building connections with grassroots organizations and ensure racialized girls and women have access to opportunities in coaching, community spaces and building life-sports synergy skills.

    I’ve always believed grassroots organizations are the beating heart of sports, laying the foundation for the next generation of athletes and role models. Without them, many young girls would never get the chance to see themselves in the game. Two organizations that are community development-focused are Lady Ballers Centre and Black Girl Hockey Club.



    Read more:
    Women’s sports are thriving in Canada — here’s how to ensure it stays that way

    The Tempo must reject the notion that success and equity in sports can be represented by just one story. While Williams’ journey is undeniably inspiring, it cannot be the sole narrative that defines progress in women’s sports. Instead, a multitude of stories, particularly those of Black and racialized women across all levels of sport, must be uplifted.

    Investing in women’s sports isn’t just the right thing to do, but is also beneficial for society as a whole. Women athletes have consistently proven they deserve professional sports leagues, pay equity, endorsement deals, equal media coverage and better sporting facilities. Supporting this movement is the right direction for the Tempo.

    Williams’ experience and commitment to women’s sports make her an ideal fit for ownership. Toronto fans are ready, and there’s little doubt the first Tempo games will be sold out. I, for one, am excited to attend the inaugural game in 2026. Let’s go Tempo!

    Treisha Hylton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Serena Williams joining the WNBA’s Toronto Tempo as a part-owner is so important for women’s sports – https://theconversation.com/why-serena-williams-joining-the-wnbas-toronto-tempo-as-a-part-owner-is-so-important-for-womens-sports-252592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Shoes that can warn you of injuries? How wearable technology is transforming foot care

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Craig Gwynne, Senior Lecturer in Podiatry, Cardiff Metropolitan University

    Your feet work hard every day supporting your body, absorbing impact and adapting to different surfaces. But they often get ignored until something goes wrong.

    Imagine your shoes alerting you to foot injuries before you feel any pain, or your socks warning you about the risk of an ulcer before symptoms even appear. This is the promise of new wearable foot technology.

    About one in five adults in middle and old age experiences foot pain, ranging from minor aches to problems that limit daily activities. Some foot conditions, particularly linked to diabetes, can be life-threatening.

    Diabetic foot ulcers have a five-year death rate of around 40%. This means that patients with foot ulcers caused by diabetes have a 40% chance of dying within five years of symptoms appearing, which is higher than many cancers. If untreated, ulcers can lead to severe infections and even necessitate amputation.

    New wearable devices, such as smart insoles and socks, can prevent these serious complications through early detection. They work by constantly tracking your foot pressure, walking patterns and even skin temperature.

    The collected information is analysed using advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, providing timely warnings about potential foot problems. Machine learning, for instance, has successfully predicted diabetic foot ulcers from this wearable data, helping healthcare providers intervene before complications occur.

    A diabetic foot ulcer.
    Zay Nyi Nyi/Shutterstock

    Smart insoles contain tiny sensors that measure how pressure spreads across your feet when you walk or run. They can detect abnormal walking patterns with over 90% precision, spotting issues before they cause pain or injury.

    These devices have proven especially useful for older adults and people with neurological conditions like stroke, multiple sclerosis, or movement disorders such as Parkinson’s disease.

    Smart socks use sensors to constantly measure foot temperature and pressure, detecting early signs of inflammation. They’re particularly beneficial for people with diabetes, as research shows these socks can predict and help prevent foot ulcers.

    Smart compression socks, which also monitor blood oxygen levels, can identify important changes during daily activities. This further reduces the risk of severe complications such as poor circulation, tissue damage and infection.



    Read more:
    Fighting fungal nail infections: simple steps for healthier toenails

    Continuously tracking a person’s foot health in these ways allows potential issues to be identified before they escalate, shifting foot care from reactive treatment to proactive management. So, wearable foot technology offers advantages for groups like athletes and people with chronic conditions.

    Athletes, especially those involved in high-impact sports like running, often put immense stress on their feet, increasing injury risk. Smart insoles provide immediate feedback, allowing athletes to adjust their running technique. Studies have shown that athletes using these insoles improved their running form and experienced fewer injuries.

    People with chronic health conditions, such as diabetes, also stand to benefit greatly from wearable technologies. Continuous monitoring with smart devices significantly lowers the risk of severe complications.

    For example, one study found that high-risk patients with diabetes who used smart socks with continuous temperature monitoring had much better outcomes. They experienced a 71% lower rate of foot ulcers and a 52% lower rate of amputations. This improvement was linked to earlier detection and intervention.

    Potential challenges

    Privacy remains a significant issue with these devices, as they constantly collect sensitive health data. Ensuring data is secure is therefore crucial. Accuracy is also important, as devices must reliably avoid false alarms or missed warnings. And although prices have decreased, wearable technology may still be expensive for many people, limiting its widespread use.

    The future of wearable foot technology is promising, however. Devices are becoming smaller, more affordable and easier to use. Innovations like 3D printing now enable customised smart insoles that perfectly match a person’s foot shape, boosting comfort and accuracy.

    Upcoming developments also include flexible sensors that can connect to smartphones and healthcare systems. These allow for remote monitoring and personalised care. For example, researchers have recently developed smart pyjamas with built-in fabric sensors. These sensors track breathing patterns and detect sleep disorders. The data is then sent directly to a phone app for analysis.



    Read more:
    High heels, flat arches, clubfoot and corns – our feet are amazing but they can be treated terribly

    Like these innovations, smart insoles and socks are moving toward more flexible, user-friendly designs that can integrate into everyday life. The goal across all this different technology is the same – to make health monitoring more accessible, comfortable and proactive without the need for bulky equipment or clinic visits.

    Wearable tech is a significant step forward for foot health. It offers early warnings and personalised insights beyond traditional methods. From preventing severe complications like diabetic ulcers to enhancing athletic performance, these devices could soon become standard parts of everyday healthcare.

    Craig Gwynne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Shoes that can warn you of injuries? How wearable technology is transforming foot care – https://theconversation.com/shoes-that-can-warn-you-of-injuries-how-wearable-technology-is-transforming-foot-care-252463

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investment in the Hundred could save UK cricket from a financial sticky wicket

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robbie Millar, Lecturer, Academy of Sport, Sheffield Hallam University

    English cricket, up in the air? Brian A Jackson/Shutterstock

    Cricket is an old sport that has evolved over centuries. But 2025 is shaping up to be a historic – and lucrative – year for the game in England and Wales.

    For the first time, private equity investment has entered the domestic game, changing the business structure of professional cricket forever. The source of this corporate interest – worth around £550 million – is the league of eight teams known as the Hundred.

    Established in 2021 by the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB), the focus of the Hundred was appealing to new audiences who have not engaged with cricket before.

    It is a much shorter format than traditional forms of the game such as the four-day County Championship competition, or the One Day Cup, which is made up of 50 overs (300 balls) per side.

    With the Hundred, each side gets 100 balls to bowl at their opponent’s wickets. The highest number of runs wins. It’s very simple. And entertaining.

    Not everyone is a fan of course, and there has been criticism of the tournament’s design, its addition to an already congested cricket calendar, and the fact that only eight of the 18 county cricket clubs (CCCs) are involved.

    But the ECB stood firm. And given the recent investment into the Hundred, it will no doubt feel vindicated.

    Because the cash is sorely needed. Our research shows that CCCs have struggled financially for a while, and are overdue an economic boost.

    To help with this, the Hundred started off with the ECB owning all eight teams or “franchises” in the league. Now it has sold 49% of each franchise and gifted the remaining 51% to each Hundred-hosting county.

    So now, for example, 51% ownership of the Oval Invincibles is in the hands of Surrey CCC. Each hosting county was then given the option of selling their share – and so far Yorkshire and Lancashire have done just that.

    The total sale of the franchises has generated £550 million, far exceeding expectations. From that, 10% (£55 million) will be ringfenced by the ECB to invest in measures to increase participation in cricket throughout England and Wales.

    A slightly complicated division of the rest of the spoils then basically leaves each Hundred-hosting county cricket club with £18 million (plus the 51% ownership of the franchise). The non-hosting CCCs will receive around £32 million each.

    For context, in 2023, Surrey CCC had the highest revenue at £65 million, while Leicestershire had the lowest at £5.5 million. So a one-off injection of £18 million would represent significant growth for clubs across the scale.

    Not cricket?

    But it’s not all good news, as the influence of private equity may cause internal conflicts about a CCC’s strategy. For while the ECB has said it will remain in control of the Hundred as a competition, the primary goal of the franchise sales is to achieve a return for investors.

    This will probably mean that the Hundred is prioritised over the other formats of domestic cricket – and even international commitments. As many of the high-profile players play across the different formats, they will need to manage their schedules and are likely to choose whatever brings the greatest financial rewards.

    And while the ECB has hinted at increasing the number of franchises in the future, the worry will still be that some clubs benefit more than others.

    More traditional fans may feel alienated.
    Graeme Dawes/Shutterstock

    Yet investment in the future is essential if cricket is to remain relevant and appeal to new audiences. There are already suggestions that Gen Z prefers other sports such as basketball and boxing, over cricket.

    Investment must also be used to improve stadium infrastructure and facilities, to attract good crowds and to generate the superstars of the future. But the influx of money means the Hundred is likely to dominate the broadcast schedule, and prioritising the tournament in this way may alienate some more traditionally minded fans.

    The commercial interest now stretches towards international markets and other sports. Four of the investment groups now involved in the Hundred are owners of Indian Premier League cricket franchises, while others are linked to the worlds of professional football (Birmingham Phoenix and Birmingham City FC) and Silicon Valley (London Spirit).

    Eventually, this could lead to increasing levels of commercialisation, of the kind sports fans have become accustomed to within English Premier League football.

    Overall then, cricket fans may look back on 2025 as a year of major change in the sport in England and Wales. Success is far from guaranteed but the early indications, especially with regards to finance, are overwhelmingly positive.

    And that was probably the point of the whole exercise. It might not be cricket as it used to be – but as with other sports today, many of the biggest decisions come down to whether or not they make money.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Investment in the Hundred could save UK cricket from a financial sticky wicket – https://theconversation.com/investment-in-the-hundred-could-save-uk-cricket-from-a-financial-sticky-wicket-244989

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The End: philosopher explains new climate-collapse musical using the allegory of Plato’s Cave

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Duncombe, Associate Professor in Philosophy, University of Nottingham

    The End tells the story of a wealthy family who survived the collapse of the climate and civilisation in a bunker inside an abandoned mine. Before the collapse they were rich, and they continue to enjoy every luxury.

    Mother (Tilda Swinton) hangs Renoirs in their private gallery. Mary (Danielle Ryan) cooks delicious cakes. Doctor (Lennie James) provides medication, with casual cruelty. Butler (Tim McInnerny) decorates their library. And Father (Michael Shannon) tells Son tales from his life as an oil executive.

    Son (George MacKay), who was born in the bunker, spends his time making models of American history, including the Moon landings and the transcontinental railroad. The family live in an unreal world of fictions, from the paintings they hang, to the models they make, their artificial lights and their fake house within the bunker.

    They tell themselves, and each other, that they are good people, that their life is worth living and they did what they had to to survive. The fact that this film is a musical only makes it feel more unreal.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    One day, Girl (Moses Ingram) stumbles into the bunker. Starving, weak and haunted by guilt, she tells the family of the terrible things she did get to safety. She challenges their response that “you had no choice”.

    As she grows closer to Son, she points out uncomfortable truths, like the fact that thousands of immigrant workers died while building the transcontinental railroad. At first, Son repeats what his parents have told him. But he soon comes to cruelly and openly mock the stories his family have concocted, seeing how self-serving they are.

    The trailer for The End.

    As the film unfolds, we learn the guilt, lies and self-deceptions that allowed each person to survive, and the stories they cling to.

    The End has more than one meaning. On the surface, the title refers to the end of civilisation. But “the end” can also mean the purpose of something, like the meaning of life. As one of the songs on the film asks, how can we make a “life worth living”?

    Plato’s Cave

    Some viewers have compared the film to Plato’s Cave. The allegory is described in The Republic, the ancient Greek philosopher’s exploration of justice, politics and the ideal society.

    The allegory describes a group of prisoners who are chained in a cave. On the wall, various shadow-images are projected: animals, people, objects. Because they don’t know any better, the prisoners take these shadows to be reality, and spend their time predicting which shadows will come next.

    One day, a prisoner escapes and makes their way to the surface. There they see the real things which correspond to the shadows. They even see the dazzling sun in real life. Upon returning to the cave, the prisoner tries to free the other prisoners from their delusions. But they refuse to be shaken from them, and kill him.

    Many interpret this escaped prisoner as Plato’s mentor, Socrates, the philosopher who was executed after he challenged Athenian citizens on questions of the ethical life.

    An animation of Plato’s cave analogy, narrated by Orson Welles.

    One message from the cave analogy is that living in ignorance, even wilful ignorance is not living a good life. The prisoners in the cave are not living a good life but they aren’t unhappy. In fact, they’re so comfortable with their illusions that they’d rather kill the escaped prisoner than listen to him. But their lives are still empty, because they are built on lies.

    The End is not Plato’s Cave: The Movie, but the similarities with the allegory are clear. It too focuses on a group of people who live in an underground, unreal world, where their activities are meaningless because they are disconnected from reality, and who actively deceive themselves and others. Someone with knowledge of the outside world enters the community and confronts them with the truth – that their lives are built on falsehoods.

    Just like the prisoners in Plato’s Cave allegory, the lives of the family before the Girl arrives are fine. But the Girl forces them to see things differently. When she finds the wine bitter, Father admits that that the wine is bitter. Her guilt forces them to face their own. Her integrity, and refusal to deceive herself about the choices she made, forces them to confront their self-deceptions. The love that blooms between Girl and the Son forces Mother, Father and Butler to recognise their own isolation.

    In a way Girl is like Socrates, forcing people to examine their lives. But unlike Socrates, she allows herself to be vulnerable. She causes the change in the others not through Socratic questioning of their beliefs, but simply by expressing her own feelings, and what she knows to be true.

    Unlike Socrates, Girl does not declare that the unexamined life is not worth living. But she does cause the family to examine their lives, albeit briefly and incompletely.

    When we sit in a cinema, we are a bit like Plato’s prisoners, watching images projected onto a wall. Mostly, movies let us escape reality. But The End doesn’t. It forces us to face real truths – the need for honesty and self-examination in the face of the immanent collapse of our climate. We have a choice – how to respond.

    Matthew Duncombe receives funding from the British Academy, Loeb Classical Library Foundation and the Spanish Ministry of Education.

    – ref. The End: philosopher explains new climate-collapse musical using the allegory of Plato’s Cave – https://theconversation.com/the-end-philosopher-explains-new-climate-collapse-musical-using-the-allegory-of-platos-cave-252315

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The US has the power to switch off the UK’s nuclear subs – a big problem as Donald Trump becomes an unreliable partner

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Becky Alexis-Martin, Peace Studies and International Development, University of Bradford

    Keir Starmer aboard one of the UK’s Vanguard class submarines. CC BY-NC-ND

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently boarded one of the UK’s four nuclear-armed submarines for a photo call as part of his attempts to demonstrate the UK’s defence capabilities as tensions with Russia continue.

    However, Starmer faces a problem. The submarine, and the rest of the UK’s nuclear fleet, is heavily reliant on the US as an operating partner. And at a time when the US becomes an increasingly unreliable partner under the leadership of an entirely transactional president, this is not ideal. The US can, if it chooses, effectively switch off the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

    British and US nuclear history is irrevocably interwoven. The US and UK cooperated on the Manhattan project, under the 1943 Quebec agreements and the 1944 Hyde Park aide memoire. This work generated the world’s first nuclear weapons, which were deployed on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

    It also led to the first rupture. In 1946, the US classified UK citizens as “foreign” and prevented them from engaging in secret nuclear work. Collaboration with the UK immediately ceased.

    The UK decided to develop its own arsenal of nuclear weapons. The successful detonation of the “Grapple Y” hydrogen bomb in April 1958 cemented its position as a thermonuclear power.

    In the meantime, however, Russia’s launch of the Sputnik satellite in 1957 had demonstrated the lethal reach of Soviet nuclear technology. This brought the US and UK back together as nuclear partners.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Talks on how to counter the Russian threat became the foundation of an atomic partnership that endures to the present day. This mutual defence agreement, signed in 1958, has provided the UK with affordable access to the latest nuclear technology and a reliable western ally. The treaty has been amended and adapted over time to reflect changes in the US-UK working relationship and the two are now so entangled that it is very hard to leave the co-dependent relationship.

    Both sides have benefited from security and protection, especially during the cold war. However, Trump’s new “special relationship” with Russia’s Vladimir Putin has reconfigured the global order of geopolitics.

    Serious concerns are now being raised about the UK’s nuclear capacity, given the unpredictability and potential unreliability of the new US administration. Trump could ignore or threaten to terminate the agreement in a show of power or contempt.

    The UK’s nuclear subs

    The UK’s Trident nuclear deterrence programme consists of four Vanguard nuclear-powered and armed submarines. The UK has some autonomy, as it is operationally independent and controls the decision to launch.

    However, it remains dependent on the US because the nuclear technologies at the heart of the Trident system are US designed and leased by Lockheed Martin – and there is no suitable alternative. The Trident system therefore relies on the US for support and maintenance.

    The UK is currently in the process of upgrading the current system. But its options seem limited. If the US were to renege on its commitments, the UK would either have to produce its own weapons domestically, collaborate with France or Europe or disarm. Each scenario creates new issues for the UK. Manufacturing nuclear weapons from scratch in the UK, for example, would be a costly and protracted activity.

    Technical collaboration with France seems the most plausible back-up option at the moment. The two countries already have a nuclear collaboration treaty in place. France has taken a similar submarine-based approach to deterrence as the UK and French president Emmanuel Macron has suggested its deterrent could be used to protect other European countries. Another alternative would be to spread the cost across Europe and create a European deterrence – but both strategies just re-embed the UK’s current nuclear reliance.

    The UK is reliant on others for its nuclear deterrent.
    Number 10/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

    While these weapons may deter a hostile nuclear strike, they have failed to prevent broader acts of aggression. Nuclear weapons have not been used in warfare for 80 years. Perhaps it is time to completely and permanently unshackle the UK from nuclear deterrence, and consider alternative forms of defence.

    The UK’s nuclear arsenal is expensive to maintain. The cost of replacing Trident is £205 billion. In 2023, the Ministry of Defence reported that the anticipated costs for supporting the nuclear deterrent would exceed its budget by £7.9 billion over the next ten years. This funding could be channelled into more pressing security threats, such as cybersecurity, terrorism or climate change.

    Nuclear weapons will become strategically redundant if the UK cannot act independently. As Nato and the US dominate the global nuclear stage, the UK’s capacity to respond has become contested. The time has come to decide whether the US is really our friend – or a new foe.

    Becky Alexis-Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The US has the power to switch off the UK’s nuclear subs – a big problem as Donald Trump becomes an unreliable partner – https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-the-power-to-switch-off-the-uks-nuclear-subs-a-big-problem-as-donald-trump-becomes-an-unreliable-partner-252674

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –