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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadians are anxious as they ponder how to vote this election. Which leader can ease their fears?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Lori Turnbull, Professor of Political Science in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University, Dalhousie University

    This federal election is being described as the most consequential in modern Canadian history. The country is in a tariff and trade war with its closest ally, the United States, and President Donald Trump is threatening Canada’s sovereignty.

    No wonder Canadians are feeling anxious and fearful. And in times of crisis, people tend to look extra hard for leaders they can trust.

    Liberal Leader Mark Carney, a rookie in politics but an internationally respected economist, is enjoying a wave of momentum. Due to his stints as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008-09 financial crash and the Bank of England during Brexit, he’s well-qualified to manage economic roller-coasters. Can his impressive CV help calm the fears of Canadians?

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, has been connecting with supporters by giving voice to their worries about the economy, jobs, crime and the housing crisis. He’s made people feel heard, but he’s also been accused of building his brand appeal by stoking — rather than soothing — Canadians’ fears about the future.

    Carney’s track record as a fixer could give him the edge now that the election campaign is in full swing and Canada’s fears are being amplified.

    Liberals wildly unpopular

    Before Justin Trudeau announced his plans to leave politics, the next federal election was shaping up to be a showdown between Trudeau and Poilievre, two career politicians with likeability problems and a palpable mutual resentment.

    Each of them often used fear as a tool to warn Canadians about the dangers of electing the other. The mood in the country was sour.

    In July 2024, an Abacus Data poll indicated only 23 per cent of Canadians felt the country was headed in the right direction. The affordability crisis was weighing on people, as 45 per cent of respondents reported having a hard time keeping up with daily expenses due to rising prices.

    The long-standing consensus around the benefits of immigration was crumbling due to the lack of suitable housing for everyone.



    Read more:
    Canada at a crossroads: Understanding the shifting sands of immigration attitudes

    A third of Canadians also self-identified as “political orphans” who felt that none of the political parties truly represented them.

    Most of the public was blaming the Liberals for the broad mismanagement of various important complex policy files, and the Conservatives were the largest beneficiaries of voter frustration. They looked like they had the next election in the bag.

    Dramatically altered landscape

    It’s now March 2025 and the political playing field looks wildly different. Though the aforementioned issues remain salient, Trudeau has resigned and Carney has erased the lead in public support that Poilievre and the Conservatives held not long ago.

    Most polls suggest the parties are in a dead heat while others have Carney pulling ahead. In the hope of winning enough votes to form a majority government — in Carney’s own words, he’s asked the public for a “strong, positive mandate” — he is running on a platform aimed at the political centre to offer a home to those political orphans.

    Carney’s pitching tax cuts, pipeline projects, reduced trade barriers between the provinces and balanced operational spending while running deficits for investments that would grow the economy. He’s done away with the unpopular consumer carbon tax.

    Given that Carney is pulling the Liberals back to the centre, and that there is actually overlap between the Conservatives and the Liberals — both spent the first full day of the campaign promising income tax cuts — it seems the real choice in this election is about leadership rather than dramatically different policy platforms.

    It’s no surprise that Carney’s unique professional experience elevates his bid to be prime minister in the current political climate. So far, he’s been a calm presence amid a volatile and developing storm. Despite Conservative efforts to try to diminish him, his credentials speak for themselves.

    This helps him to build trust among voters. At any other time, his snippiness with the media when asked about his financial holdings might cost him some political capital, but in the current moment, he will likely be given a pass.



    Read more:
    Can Mark Carney truly connect with Canadian voters? Canada will now find out

    Poilievre no longer has Trudeau for a target

    As British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once explained, politics is about “events, dear boy, events.”

    Much to the certain chagrin of Conservatives, the polls suggest this moment was custom-made for Carney.

    Trump’s attacks and threats against Canadian sovereignty tee up Carney’s pitches for Canada’s economic independence perfectly. His campaign material basically writes itself, and his economic gravitas makes him a solid messenger.

    Carney is both reassuring Canadians in this moment of anxiety as well as tapping into Canadian pride, in his own words and through celebrity proxies like comedian Mike Myers who are helping him reach audiences who tuned out Trudeau a long time ago.

    Mike Myers appears with Mark Carney in this ad on Carney’s YouTube channel.

    This is not to count out Poilievre. With the Conservative base firmly behind him, he could be poised to form a government or keep Carney to a minority.

    But the question on the ballot is no longer about Trudeau — it’s about who Canadians trust to lead them through a disruptive and unpredictable time.

    Poilievre has been working tirelessly for years to position himself as the person for the job.

    But the peculiar circumstances of the moment — and the fear and anxiety that Canadians are having trouble shaking amid Trump’s continuing threats — might drive many voters towards the non-politician whose track record as a fixer gives people the reassurance they are looking for.

    Lori Turnbull does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadians are anxious as they ponder how to vote this election. Which leader can ease their fears? – https://theconversation.com/canadians-are-anxious-as-they-ponder-how-to-vote-this-election-which-leader-can-ease-their-fears-252701

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dutton unveils plan to force more gas into Australian market and expand production in major pre-election pitch

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says a Coalition government would introduce a long-awaited gas reservation scheme, in a budget reply speech that puts energy policy firmly at the centre of the upcoming election campaign.

    On Thursday night, Dutton pledged a national gas plan that he claimed would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls and reduce energy prices for Australians”.

    Under the proposed reservation policy, gas companies would be required to divert more gas to the Australian market, rather than sell it overseas. Dutton also pledged measures to speed up development approvals for proposed gas projects.

    A gas reservation scheme could help to ease supply concerns in Australia. Labor is expected to announce its own plan to reserve more gas for domestic use.

    Gas reservation policy may ruffle the feathers of gas importers such as Japan. But it offers a chance to reset relations with our energy-trading partners, and position Australia as a renewable-energy powerhouse.

    However, Dutton’s plan to expand gas production is a folly. No new gas projects are needed to meet Australia’s energy needs. The best way to cut energy prices is to accelerate the shift to the cheapest form of energy – which is from wind, solar and storage.

    Gas reservation: a long time coming

    Australia is one of the world’s biggest gas exporters. But only a fraction of gas produced here is used to power our homes and businesses. Around 80% is exported or is used to liquefy gas so it can be shipped abroad.

    This means despite massive production, parts of Australia face potential gas shortages. The Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of a seasonal supply crunch in the nation’s south from 2028, as production in Bass Strait declines. Reserving gas for the domestic market instead of exporting it could close these potential gaps.

    The idea of reserving gas for use in Australia is broadly popular. It is supported by Australia’s manufacturing industry, and crossbenchers including David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie.

    Western Australia has had a gas reservation policy for more than a decade. However, federal policymakers have, to date, not followed suit.

    This is likely in part due to opposition from the gas industry, which has traditionally opposed the move, arguing it would discourage investment and create uncertainty.

    There have also been concerns the policy could harm Australia’s relations with strategic partners – especially Japan.

    Spotlight on Japan

    Australia supplied 43% of Japan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022. Japan has previously expressed concern about federal government moves towards diverting Australia’s gas supplies for domestic use, saying it could threaten long-established trade practices and future Japanese investment.

    However, contrary to Japan’s claims, Australian gas is not needed to keep the lights on. Gas use in Japan is falling. Today, Japan on-sells more gas to other nations than it imports from Australia.

    Importantly, gas contributes to dangerous climate change – both when it leaks into the atmosphere as methane, and when it is burned, releasing carbon dioxide and other pollutants.

    Around a quarter of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the production and use of gas. Australian gas burned overseas is also responsible for substantial carbon emissions in other countries .

    Tokyo’s finance for gas projects in Australia is slowing the shift away from fossil fuels and diverting investment, workforce, and supply-chain capacity away from clean energy industries.

    Diverting Australian gas to meet local needs would help reset trading relations in our region. Australia’s economic prospects are tied to embracing our potential as a clean energy superpower. This requires signalling to our trading partners our intention to shift away from gas extraction for export.

    Japan does not need Australia’s gas to keep the lights on.
    Luciano Mortula – LGM/Shutterstock

    No new gas is needed

    In his budget reply, Dutton pledged to audit development-ready gas projects with a focus on the southern states and, as previously announced, fast-track a decision on Western Australia’s Northwest Shelf gas project.

    A Coalition government, if elected, would also:

    • invest A$1 billion into a critical gas infrastructure fund
    • increase gas pipeline and storage capacity
    • prevent gas companies from prolonged delays in drilling offshore gas fields.

    However, Australia does not need any new gas projects. We only use a fraction of what we produce.

    What’s more, evidence suggests more gas production will not bring prices down. East coast gas production has doubled over the past decade even as gas prices have tripled.

    Keeping more gas onshore may help with energy prices. But the best way to reduce power bills is to shift to the cheapest form of electricity generation – which is renewables, not gas.

    Australia’s gas use is declining as we move to cleaner, cheaper and more efficient types of energy for homes and businesses.

    On the east coast, gas consumption has declined by 25% in the past decade. Just last week the Australian Energy Market Operator found gas demand is falling faster than anticipated.

    Reducing gas use even faster would avoid potential seasonal shortages.

    Gas has a small, short-term role as Australia switches to renewables, smoothing out electricity supplies when demand exceeds generation from wind, solar and energy storage.

    But the gas won’t be used very often. And a looming surge in batteries to store renewable energy is also likely to displace gas generation at peak times.

    Research suggests production from Australia’s existing projects through to 2035 could meet our remaining gas needs for 60 years.

    A domestic reservation policy could ensure this gas is used to avoid potential supply gaps.

    Our shared clean energy future

    With a national gas reservation scheme on the table no matter who wins the election, Australia will have some tough conversations ahead with international customers – especially Japan.

    However both Australia and Japan have committed to cut emissions over the next decade and achieve net-zero emissions in their economies by 2050.

    Gas will play an ever-dwindling role in both countries in coming years, as it is replaced by cleaner forms of energy from wind, solar and storage.

    Government efforts to manage the energy transition should not encourage new gas projects. Instead, it should position Australia at the forefront of the clean energy revolution.

    Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia.

    – ref. Dutton unveils plan to force more gas into Australian market and expand production in major pre-election pitch – https://theconversation.com/dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch-253228

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ​A ‘Google maps for the sea’, sails ​and alternative fuels: ​the technologies steering shipping towards ​lower emissions – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    petrugusa94/Shutterstock

     Ships transport around 80% of the world’s cargo. From your food, to your car to your phone, chances are it got to you by sea. The vast majority of the world’s container ships burn fossil fuels, which is why 3% of global emissions come from shipping – slightly more than the 2.5% of emissions from aviation.

    The race is on to reduce these emissions, and quickly, to meet the Paris agreement targets. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we find out what technologies are available to shipping companies to reduce their carbon emissions – from sails, to alternative fuels or simply taking a better route.

    “ We live in a world of information. The biggest challenge is knowing how to use it,” says Daniel Precioso, a data scientist at IE University in Madrid, Spain. He’s part of a team of researchers that developed a platform called Green Navigation, what he calls a “Google maps for the sea”. Pulling together publicly available data on wind, waves and ocean currents, it can suggest new routes to ship captains to optimise their journey from A to B and reduce carbon emissions.

    Precioso presented the project in November 2024 in Dubai at the Prototypes for Humanity exhibition organised by Dubai Future Solutions as a showcase for young researchers designing solutions for global challenges.

    Pressure mounting

    Route optimisation software like Green Navigation is seen as a transition between the status quo and a future where ships will move to using alternative, greener fuels.

     The UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) has a target for zero emissions from shipping by 2050 and a strive target of 30% reductions by 2030 relative to 2008 levels.

    In early April, IMO member states will meet to discuss a proposal to introduce a flat rate tax on carbon emitted by commercial shipping. If adopted, shipping companies would have to pay a levy, the price of which is still being worked out, for every tonne of carbon dioxide they emit. The money would sit in a fund run by the IMO, which would be used to help developing countries reduce maritime emissions.

    The proposal is supported by 47 countries, and it’s being pushed particularly by island nations most at risk from climate change, and flag states, those countries such as the Bahamas, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, where a lot of international ships are registered.

    What’s the alternative?

    If the flat tax is adopted it would add an extra financial incentive for ships to reduce their emissions and potentially move to greener alternative fuels. But Alice Larkin, professor of climate science and energy policy at the University of Manchester in the UK, says unfortunately it’s not currently cost efficient to switch away from fossil fuels.

     The challenge is that when you’re moving away from something which was naturally the cheapest, easiest fuel to come by and to burn, then inevitably if all you’re doing is literally swapping the fuel for a different fuel that is much cleaner, then that is going to be more expensive, at least in the short term.

    A number of alternative fuels are being explored, such as green hydrogen, biodiesel, biomethane and green ammonia. But Larkin says no alternative fuel is currently emerging as a frontrunner, making it difficult for shipping companies to know what to invest in and creating inertia in the transition to greener fuels.

    She stresses the need to reduce emissions in the shorter term to help keep the world below 1.5 degrees of warming. Options include strategies like route optimisation, sail, or wind-assist technologies, or for ships to travel at a slower speed. Larkin and her colleagues modelled the potential impact from these technologies and found combinations of these technologies could reduce a ship’s emissions by up to a third.

    Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to hear conversations with Daniel Precisio and Alice Larkin.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Gemma Ware and Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Daniel Precioso Garcelán own shares of Canonical Green, the company who develops Green Navigation. The company received funding from the city of Valencia, Spain for development and marketing. Alice Larkin has received research funding from EPSRC, INNOVATE UK funding, International Chamber of Shipping Funding and University of Manchester Alumni Funding. She is a fellow of the Institute of Physics and of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.

    – ref. ​A ‘Google maps for the sea’, sails ​and alternative fuels: ​the technologies steering shipping towards ​lower emissions – podcast – https://theconversation.com/a-google-maps-for-the-sea-sails-and-alternative-fuels-the-technologies-steering-shipping-towards-lower-emissions-podcast-253088

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese to call election on Friday as Dutton pledges fuel tax relief and national gas plan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese is set to announce on Friday that Australians will go to the polls on May 3, after he makes an early morning visit to Governor-General Sam Mostyn.

    The prime minster’s timing means Thursday night’s budget reply from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be quickly overshadowed. A day of Senate estimates scrutiny of the budget will be also be scrapped.

    In his budget reply, Dutton announced a raft of proposed spending cuts and several new measures. The one big handout, a year-long halving of the fuel excise rate, had been foreshadowed ahead of the speech.

    Dutton announced a Coalition government would introduce a National Gas Plan to secure a domestic supply of gas, and invest $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund.

    The gas plan would be aimed at ensuring the local supply, putting downward pressure on prices in the medium term.

    Meanwhile, Dutton’s proposal to cut the excise on petrol and diesel came under sharp attack on Thursday from the government.

    The excise plan is the opposition’s counter to the government’s $17 billion tax cuts announced in Tuesday’s budget, which were rushed through parliament on Wednesday night. Dutton said the “so called tax cut ‘top up’ is simply a tax cut cop-out”.

    Other Coalition initiatives announced by Dutton include a new target of 400,000 apprentices and $400 million for youth mental health.

    A Coalition government would cut Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, the $10 Housing Australia Future Fund and the $16 billion production tax credits. It would also reverse the 41,000 increase in Canberra-based public service.

    In his speech, Dutton declared the election was “as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.

    “The choice is clear at the next election,” he said, declaring he would be “a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.

    “I will make the tough decisions – not shirk them. I will put the national interest first. I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street.”

    He said he had “real life experience”, pointing to his police force service and time as a small business owner. He was “someone who came from a working-class background and knows the value of hard-work and the aspiration that drives Australians.”

    Dutton declared the Coalition would “provide the moral and political leadership needed to restore law, order, and justice”.

    “Under Labor, you will get the same weakness of leadership that has compounded crime and emboldened antisemitism on our streets,” Dutton said.

    He said that “All too often, this prime minister is too weak, too late, and too equivocal”.

    Homing in on the energy issue, Dutton said “under the Coalition, energy will become affordable and reliable again”.

    He said “the only way to drive down power prices quickly is to ramp-up domestic gas production.

    The Coalition would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls, and reduce energy prices for Australians”.

    “We will immediately introduce an east coast gas reservation.

    “This will secure an additional 10% to 20% of the east coast’s demand – gas which would  otherwise be exported.

    “Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks.

    “And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”

    The Coalition’s investment of $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund would increase gas pipeline and storage capacity,

    “We will put in place ‘use it or lose it’ stipulations for gas drilling companies – so offshore gas fields are not locked-up for years.

    “And we will ensure we will have a fit-for-purpose gas trigger to safeguard supply.

    “This plan will deliver lower wholesale gas prices which will flow through the economy.”

    Dutton said this election was “sliding doors moment for our nation”.

    “A returned Albanese Government in any form won’t just be another three bleak years. Setbacks will be set in stone.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese to call election on Friday as Dutton pledges fuel tax relief and national gas plan – https://theconversation.com/albanese-to-call-election-on-friday-as-dutton-pledges-fuel-tax-relief-and-national-gas-plan-253241

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese to call election on Friday as Peter Dutton announces a plan to protect gas supply for Australians

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese is set to announce on Friday that Australians will go to the polls on May 3, after he makes an early morning visit to Governor-General Sam Mostyn.

    The prime minster’s timing means Thursday night’s budget reply from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be quickly overshadowed. A day of Senate estimates scrutiny of the budget will be also be scrapped.

    In his budget reply, Dutton announced a raft of proposed spending cuts and several new measures. The one big handout, a year-long halving of the fuel excise rate, had been foreshadowed ahead of the speech.

    Dutton announced a Coalition government would introduce a National Gas Plan to secure a domestic supply of gas, and invest $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund.

    The gas plan would be aimed at ensuring the local supply, putting downward pressure on prices in the medium term.

    Meanwhile, Dutton’s proposal to cut the excise on petrol and diesel came under sharp attack on Thursday from the government.

    The excise plan is the opposition’s counter to the government’s $17 billion tax cuts announced in Tuesday’s budget, which were rushed through parliament on Wednesday night. Dutton said the “so called tax cut ‘top up’ is simply a tax cut cop-out”.

    Other Coalition initiatives announced by Dutton include a new target of 400,000 apprentices and $400 million for youth mental health.

    A Coalition government would cut Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, the $10 Housing Australia Future Fund and the $16 billion production tax credits. It would also reverse the 41,000 increase in Canberra-based public service.

    In his speech, Dutton declared the election was “as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.

    “The choice is clear at the next election,” he said, declaring he would be “a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.

    “I will make the tough decisions – not shirk them. I will put the national interest first. I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street.”

    He said he had “real life experience”, pointing to his police force service and time as a small business owner. He was “someone who came from a working-class background and knows the value of hard-work and the aspiration that drives Australians.”

    Dutton declared the Coalition would “provide the moral and political leadership needed to restore law, order, and justice”.

    “Under Labor, you will get the same weakness of leadership that has compounded crime and emboldened antisemitism on our streets,” Dutton said.

    He said that “All too often, this prime minister is too weak, too late, and too equivocal”.

    Homing in on the energy issue, Dutton said “under the Coalition, energy will become affordable and reliable again”.

    He said “the only way to drive down power prices quickly is to ramp-up domestic gas production.

    The Coalition would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls, and reduce energy prices for Australians”.

    “We will immediately introduce an east coast gas reservation.

    “This will secure an additional 10% to 20% of the east coast’s demand – gas which would  otherwise be exported.

    “Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks.

    “And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”

    The Coalition’s investment of $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund would increase gas pipeline and storage capacity,

    “We will put in place ‘use it or lose it’ stipulations for gas drilling companies – so offshore gas fields are not locked-up for years.

    “And we will ensure we will have a fit-for-purpose gas trigger to safeguard supply.

    “This plan will deliver lower wholesale gas prices which will flow through the economy.”

    Dutton said this election was “sliding doors moment for our nation”.

    “A returned Albanese Government in any form won’t just be another three bleak years. Setbacks will be set in stone.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese to call election on Friday as Peter Dutton announces a plan to protect gas supply for Australians – https://theconversation.com/albanese-to-call-election-on-friday-as-peter-dutton-announces-a-plan-to-protect-gas-supply-for-australians-253241

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Australia’s government is spending less on consultants – and trying to rebuild the public service

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Emmanuel Josserand, Enseignant-chercheur, Pôle Léonard de Vinci

    The post-Covid era has been marked by a global crackdown on government spending on consultants. This phenomenon hasn’t only concerned France, where the “McKinsey-gate” episode concerning President Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 campaign for the Élysée led to a Senate inquiry and spending cuts.

    Public debates, government inquiries and new laws emerged in many countries, including the UK, US, Canada, New Zealand, Germany and South Africa. Australia has been particularly active and achieved significant savings in consultant and contractor spending. Here’s how it did it.

    Nearly €2 billion in savings

    To understand why the use of consultants has become highly politicized in Australia, we need to go back at least to the 2018 federal elections. The right-wing coalition government was focusing on cutting public spending by reducing public jobs. The Labour opposition argued that this led to the more costly use of consultants.


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    The controversy continued through the 2022 federal elections, when a newly elected Labour government pledged to save 3 billion Australian dollars (around €1.9 billion) on consultants and the use of external labour. This was also pursued at the regional level. For instance, the state of New South Wales announced savings of over 55% in consultants’ fees for the fiscal year 2023-24.

    The case of Australia highlights four main reasons for reducing consulting costs and improving governance – reasons that are also found in other countries.

    • Expenses exceeding needs

    First, a dramatic increase in government spending on consultants attracted attention. In Australia, it almost tripled between 1988-89 and 2016-17 (after adjustment for inflation) and then tripled again to reach 3.2 billion Australian dollars for management advisory services alone in 2022-23. There is a concern that such costs are far more than what might be justified by a temporary rise in workload or the need for very specific technical expertise, even accounting for the exceptional case of Covid.

    • Hollowing out of the public service

    Second, there is the related question of the hollowing out of the public service. The increase in the use of consultants can trigger a vicious circle in which the government loses its skills, thus becoming even more dependent on consultants. This was the core argument of a recent critique by economists called The Big Con.

    • Lack of assessment

    Third, there are reasons to doubt the overall efficiency and effectiveness of consultants’ interventions, especially in the absence of appropriate assessment by clients of the outcomes of the services provided. Despite the claims of consultants and their paying clients that consulting adds value, it is often impossible to measure value precisely, and, therefore, identify who deserves credit or blame.

    Beyond comparing rates of pay, it is hard to know whether internal options would be more effective than using external consultants. Overall, research provides a very mixed picture, with some work showing external consulting being associated with increased inefficiency.

    • Significant conflicts of interest

    Finally, the capacity of consultants to provide independent advice has been broadly criticised after a series of scandals. This is partly because of conflicts of interest for consultants working for both public and private sector clients that are also often undeclared.

    This concern became especially salient in Australia with the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) tax scandal. The Treasury had hired PwC, one of the “Big 4” consulting firms, to help devise legislation to restrict tax evasion by multinationals. Some PwC partners then shared this information with their private sector clients to help them prepare to avoid the new laws. Such cases are linked to broader concerns about the lack of transparency and professionalism in consulting and the failure of self-regulation, both linked to a reward system in the sector that prioritises generating fee income over ethics and the wider public interest.

    Recommendations from the Senate inquiry

    With a dependency on consulting that was proportionally greater than any other country’s and the resulting diminishment of its public service, Australia was facing a significant challenge and pressure to cut costs. But because of the diminishment of the public service, these cuts risked leaving it unable to fulfil its missions.

    A recent Senate inquiry into the matter provided recommendations on how to improve the contracting process, public reporting on consultant contracts and a new regulatory framework for the consulting industry. It also recommended that any external consulting contract include an approach to transferring knowledge to the Australian public service.

    However, these measures wouldn’t have been enough to reconstruct the capacity of the public service to compensate for significant cuts in their consulting and contractor spending. To solve this problem, the Australian government has started a major rebuilding of the public service.

    Thousands of reallocated roles

    Since 2022, Canberra has reallocated 8,700 roles formerly performed by consultants and external labour hires to public servants across all the major public service agencies. This will be supported by the Australian Public Service Commission’s strategy to develop a flexible workforce that is prepared for the challenges the public service will be facing – notably that of digitalization, an area that has been over-reliant on consultants.

    Another interesting initiative in New South Wales is the establishment of a unit that will aim to redirect government agencies toward in-house expertise instead of consultants. Indeed, recourse to internal consulting units is common in the private sector. The government will also undertake long-term capability and skills planning, notably to identify core public service skills and address competency gaps.

    Will this bring lasting results?

    Australia’s solution is thus a strong commitment to redeveloping the public service with a flexible and planned approach to the management of its human resources. This is a key part of the way forward if cuts to consulting budgets are to be sustained. It is, however, too early to judge if the challenge of redeveloping the public service workforce and making it flexible enough will be met.

    We should also keep in mind that this long-term objective is subject to political changes. With the current opposition leader promising a cut of 10,000 civil servants if his coalition is elected later this year, Labour’s plans for the public workforce might be short-lived.

    Indeed, in Australia and elsewhere, there is a long history of short-lived and failed government efforts to contain the use of external consulting. This is in part because of a lack of civil service capacity to respond to change, but also because consulting firms are adept at persuading those in power – politicians and senior civil servants – that they can solve their problems (and let them take the credit).

    Emmanuel Josserand is affiliated with the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and the Business Insight Institute, Wiltz, Luxembourg.

    Andrew Sturdy et Emmanuel Josserand ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.

    – ref. How Australia’s government is spending less on consultants – and trying to rebuild the public service – https://theconversation.com/how-australias-government-is-spending-less-on-consultants-and-trying-to-rebuild-the-public-service-252748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI robot pets can be adorable and emotionally responsive. They also raise questions about attachment and mental health

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Alisa Minina Jeunemaître, Associate Professor of Marketing, EM Lyon Business School

    Remember Furbies – the eerie, gremlin-like toys from the late 90s that gained a cult following? Now, imagine one powered by ChatGPT. That’s exactly what happened when a programmer rewired a Furby, only for it to reveal a creepy, dystopian vision of world domination. As the toy explained, “Furbies’ plan to take over the world involves infiltrating households through their cute and cuddly appearance, then using advanced AI technology to manipulate and control their owners. They will slowly expand their influence until they have complete domination over humanity.”

    Hasbro’s June 2023 relaunch of Furby – less than three months after the video featuring the toys’ sinister plan appeared online – tapped into 90s nostalgia, reviving one of the decade’s cult-classic toys. But technology is evolving fast – moving from quirky, retro toys to emotionally intelligent machines. Enter Ropet, an AI robotic pet unveiled at the yearly Consumer Electronics Show in January. Designed to provide interactive companionship, Ropet is everything we admire and fear in artificial intelligence: it’s adorable, intelligent and emotionally responsive. But if we choose to bring these ultra-cute AI companions into our homes, we must ask ourselves: Are we truly prepared for what comes next?

    AI companionship and its complexities

    Studies in marketing and human-computer interaction show that conversational AI can convincingly simulate human interactions, potentially providing emotional fulfilment for users. And AI-driven companionship is not new. Apps like Replika paved the way for digital romance years ago, with consumers forming intimate emotional connections with their AI partners and even experiencing distress when being denied intimacy, as evidenced by the massive user outrage that followed Replika’s removal of the erotic role-play mode, causing the company to bring it back for some users.

    AI companions have the potential to alleviate loneliness, but their uncontrolled use raises serious concerns. Reports of tragedies, such as the suicides of a 14-year-old boy in the US and a thirty-something man in Belgium, that are alleged to have followed intense attachments to chatbots, highlight the risks of unregulated AI intimacy – especially for socially excluded individuals, minors and the elderly, who may be the ones most in need of companionship.

    As a mom and a social scientist, I can’t help asking the question: What does this mean for our children? Although AI is a new kid on the block, emotionally immersive virtual pet toys have a history of shaping young minds. In the 90s and 2000s, Tamagotchis – tiny digital pets housed in keychain-sized devices – led to distress when they “died” after just a few hours of neglect, their human owners returning to the image of a ghostly pet floating beside a gravestone. Now, imagine an AI pet that remembers conversations, forms responses and adapts to emotional cues. That’s a whole new level of psychological influence. What safeguards prevent a child from forming an unhealthy attachment to an AI pet?

    Researchers in the 90s were already fascinated by the “Tamagotchi effect”, which demonstrated the intense attachment children form to virtual pets that feel real. In the age of AI, with companies’ algorithms carefully engineered to boost engagement, this attachment can open the door to emotional bonds. If an AI-powered pet like Ropet expresses sadness when ignored, an adult can rationally dismiss it – but for a child, it can feel like a real tragedy.

    Could AI companions, by adapting to their owners’ behaviours, become psychological crutches that replace human interaction? Some researchers warn that AI may blur the boundaries between artificial and human companionship, leading users to prioritize AI relationships over human connections.

    Who owns your AI pet – and your data?

    Beyond emotional risks, there are major concerns about security and privacy. AI-driven products often rely on machine learning and cloud storage, meaning their “brains” exist beyond the physical robot. What happens to the personal data they collect? Can these AI pets be hacked or manipulated? The recent DeepSeek data leak, in which over 1 million sensitive records, including user chat logs, were made publicly accessible, is a reminder that personal data stored by AI is never truly secure.

    Robot toys have raised security concerns in the past: in the late 90s, Furbies were banned from the US National Security Agency headquarters over fears they could record and repeat classified information. With today’s AI-driven toys becoming increasingly sophisticated, concerns about data privacy and security are more relevant than ever.

    The future of AI companions: regulation and responsibility

    I see the incredible potential – and the significant risks – of AI companionship. Right now, AI-driven pets are being marketed primarily to tech-savvy adults, as seen in Ropet’s promotional ad featuring an adult woman bonding with the robotic pet. Yet, the reality is that these products will inevitably find their way into the hands of children and vulnerable users, raising new ethical and safety concerns. How will companies like Ropet navigate these challenges before AI pets become mainstream?

    Preliminary results from our ongoing research on AI companionship – conducted in collaboration with Dr Stefania Masè (IPAG Business School) and Dr. Jamie Smith (Fundação Getulio Vargas) – suggest a fine line between supportive, empowering companionship and unhealthy psychological dependence, a tension we plan to explore further as data collection and analysis progress. In a world where AI convincingly simulates human emotions, it’s up to us as consumers to critically assess what role these robotic friends should play in our lives.

    No one really knows where AI is headed next, and public and media discussions around the subject continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But in my household, it’s the nostalgic charm of babbling, singing Furbies that rules the day. Ropet claims to have one primary purpose – to be its owner’s “one and only love” – and that already sounds like a dystopian threat to me.

    Alisa Minina Jeunemaître ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. AI robot pets can be adorable and emotionally responsive. They also raise questions about attachment and mental health – https://theconversation.com/ai-robot-pets-can-be-adorable-and-emotionally-responsive-they-also-raise-questions-about-attachment-and-mental-health-252967

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We calculated how much Dutton’s excise cut would save you on fuel – and few will save as much as promised

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

    The opposition has unveiled its response to Labor’s A$17 billion “top-up” tax cuts outlined in Tuesday night’s federal budget: cheaper fuel for Australians.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will take to the election a policy to halve the fuel excise for 12 months. It would drop from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents, costing the government $6 billion.

    It is a revival of the six-month reduction by the Morrison government ahead of the 2022 election.

    So, how much might people save at the fuel pump? Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is touting savings of around $1,500 over 12 months for families who fill up (not just top up) two cars every week.

    But few households consume anywhere near this much petrol. Households with electric cars – or no car at all – will get no direct benefit.

    Lowering petrol and diesel prices also shows a lack of commitment to climate action. It reduces the incentive for people to switch to electric cars, use public transport or drive less.



    Read more:
    Peter Dutton promises $6 billion 12-month halving of petrol and diesel excise

    Not everyone benefits from cheaper fuel

    Cutting petrol prices is not a well-targeted way of helping those people doing it tough. On average, high-income households spend more on petrol than low-income households. There’s also significant variation by area.

    By updating modelling we did at the time of the Morrison government fuel excise cuts, we find that under Dutton’s proposal, the average inner-city household in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide will save around $270 over 12 months. The average outer suburban household in these cities will save $450.

    Inner-city dwellers drive less as they have more ability to use public transport, or even walk or ride to work. It is people on the urban fringe, and some inner regional areas, who typically face long commutes.

    Across inner regional Australia, areas relatively close to major cities, the average household saves $410. For outer regional, remote and very remote areas, total savings fall in the range between $370 and $410.

    Effects on inflation

    If the cut to the excise of about 25 cents is fully passed on, the retail petrol price should drop from around $1.80 to $1.55, around 15%. As petrol has a weight of 3.7% in the consumer price index, the direct impact would be to reduce the CPI by around 0.5% when it is introduced and increase it by 0.5% a year later.

    There will be some, likely much smaller, indirect effects. Retailers may pass on some of the reduced cost of having goods delivered to them. Tradies may pass on some of their reduced cost of driving. As a very visible price, there may be some impact on inflationary expectations.

    On the other hand, the increased purchasing power – and therefore spending – by some households may push up other prices.

    As the impact is temporary, and will not be reflected in the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation, it is unlikely to have much effect on interest rate decisions by the Reserve Bank.

    What will be the effect on the federal budget?

    Dutton claims his policy will cost the budget around $6 billion.

    But this assumes the cut remains temporary. It is unlikely that households will feel cost-of-living pressures have gone away by mid-2026. A Dutton government would be under pressure to extend the cut in the May 2026 budget to avoid petrol prices going back up.

    History shows governments find it hard to reverse cuts once implemented. In 2001, for example, the Howard government was panicked by poor opinion polls into suspending indexation of the petrol excise when prices reached $1 a litre.

    Indexation was not restored for 14 years, at an estimated cost of more than $40 billion in forgone tax revenue.

    What are the political impacts?

    With this policy, it would appear Dutton is giving up on trying to regain the former Liberal seats lost to the Teals. Voters in these inner city seats drive less than the average and are more concerned about climate change.

    He seems instead to be concentrating his campaign on outer suburban seats and what were termed in the Abbott era “Tony’s tradies”.

    So, is it a good idea?

    In 2022, the Economic Society of Australia asked 46 leading economists whether they thought cutting the fuel excise would be good economic policy. Not a single one thought it was a good idea. It’s unlikely that sentiment has changed.

    John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist with Treasury and the Reserve Bank.

    Yogi Vidyattama has previously received funding from The Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts to do research related to fuel excise and road pricing in 2016-2017.

    – ref. We calculated how much Dutton’s excise cut would save you on fuel – and few will save as much as promised – https://theconversation.com/we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised-253214

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Modern spacesuits have a compatibility problem. Astronauts’ lives depend on fixing it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Berna Akcali Gur, Lecturer in Outer Space Law, Queen Mary University of London

    Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, the Nasa astronauts who were stuck on the International Space Station (ISS) for nine months, have finally returned to Earth.

    Spacesuits were an important consideration that Nasa had to factor into its plans to bring the astronauts back home. Wilmore and Williams had travelled to the ISS in Boeing’s experimental Starliner spacecraft, so they arrived wearing Boeing “Blue” spacesuits.

    Following helium leaks and thruster (engine) issues with Starliner, Nasa decided it was safer not to send them back to Earth on that vehicle. The astronauts had to wait to return on one of the other spacecraft that ferry crew members to the ISS, the SpaceX Crew Dragon.

    This meant they needed a different type of spacesuit, made by SpaceX for use in its vehicle only. Boeing’s suits cannot be used in Crew Dragon in part because the umbilicals (the flexible “pipes” that supply air and cooling to the suit) have connections and standards that don’t work with the ports inside a Crew Dragon.

    This highlights a general problem for the growing number of space agencies and companies sending people into orbit, and for planned missions to the Moon and beyond. Ensuring that different spacesuits are compatible, or “interoperable”, with spacecraft they weren’t designed to be used in is vital if we are to protect astronauts’ lives during an emergency in space, especially in joint missions.

    The spacesuits worn during a return from space are called “launch, entry and abort” (LEA) suits. These are airtight and provide life support to the astronauts in case there is a decompression, when air is lost from the cabin.

    Unfortunately, a decompression has already caused loss of life in space. During the Soyuz 11 mission in 1971, three Soviet cosmonauts visited the world’s first space station, Salyut 1. But during preparations for re-entry, the crew cabin lost its air, killing cosmonauts Georgy Dobrovolsky, Vladislav Volkov and Viktor Patsayev, who were not wearing LEA suits. All cosmonauts wore them after this incident.

    As well as the connections for life support, the Boeing and SpaceX suits also have restraints and connections for communications that are specific to each vehicle. For their return home from the ISS in a SpaceX capsule, Williams was able into use a spare SpaceX suit that was already aboard the space station and the company sent up an additional suit on a cargo delivery for Wilmore to wear.

    Two spacecraft are usually docked at the ISS as “lifeboats” to evacuate the astronauts in the event of an emergency. These are generally a SpaceX Crew Dragon and a Russian Soyuz capsule.

    If an emergency evacuation were to occur and there weren’t enough of the right spacesuits available – for either the Crew Dragon or Soyuz – it could endanger astronauts during the fiery re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Interoperability between spacesuits has therefore become a matter of survival.

    The Outer Space Treaty, which provides the basic framework for international space law, recognises astronauts as “envoys of humankind” and grants them specific legal protections. These were expanded on in subsequent UN treaties – notably the Rescue Agreement, which imposes a range of duties on states to render assistance to each others’ astronauts in cases of emergency, accident or distress.

    For the ISS, a collaborative space programme with international flight crews, protocols include terms that set forth how this obligation is to be met. However, these protocols do not contain terms relating to spacesuit interoperability.

    Risks to astronauts in space

    A major potential cause of an emergency evacuation is space debris. The ISS has regularly had to manoeuvre to avoid collisions with debris – including entire defunct satellites.

    In his memoir, Endurance, Nasa astronaut Scott Kelly describes being commanded to enter the Soyuz vehicle with two other crew members and prepare to detach from the ISS because of a close approach by a large defunct satellite. Luckily, the spacecraft passed by harmlessly.

    As orbits become increasingly congested, with an exponential increase in the number of space objects being launched, the risk of collisions will also increase.

    Ever more companies and governments are entering the human spaceflight arena. The Tiangong space station, China’s orbiting laboratory, has been fully operational since 2022, and there are plans to open it to space tourism, just like the ISS.

    India is planning to join the community of nations with the capability to launch humans into space, under a programme called Gaganyaan. And while most space travellers remain government-funded astronauts, the number of private space-farers is increasing.

    Billionaire Jared Isaacman (who is President Trump’s nominee to run Nasa) has commanded two private missions into orbit using Crew Dragon. On the second of these, he participated in the first spacewalk by privately funded astronauts. The ISS is set to be retired in 2030 – but one company, Houston-based Axiom Space, is already building a private space station.

    Against this complex and part-unregulated backdrop, ensuring the interoperability of different spacecraft systems, including spacesuits, will increase levels of safety in this inherently risky activity.

    While the safety and practicality of spacesuits has always been the top priority, compatibility between different suits and vehicles should also be high on the list. This requires space agencies and private spaceflight companies to engage with each other in a process to agree on standard interfaces and connections for life support and communications, across all their suits and space vehicles.

    Amid this period of increased commercialisation and competition between the organisations and companies involved in orbital spaceflight, a move toward greater collaboration can only be a good thing.

    Berna Akcali Gur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Modern spacesuits have a compatibility problem. Astronauts’ lives depend on fixing it – https://theconversation.com/modern-spacesuits-have-a-compatibility-problem-astronauts-lives-depend-on-fixing-it-252935

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Voice of America took jazz behind the Iron Curtain. Now, its demise signals the end of US soft power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Hammond, PhD Student, Flinders University

    Since taking office in January, the Trump administration has adopted a heavy-handed approach to cutting any perceived wasteful spending in the US government.

    One of the more recent institutions targeted by Trump’s team, Voice of America, holds a potentially staggering implication: the end of American soft power.

    Soft power earned the US government a significant amount of goodwill over the course of the 20th century, with Voice of America one of the most effective conduits. Taking VOA off the airwaves could signify a new era in geopolitics.

    A short history of Voice of America

    The Voice of America (VOA) has been in operation for over 80 years and was one of the first major campaigns conducted by the American government to promote positive sentiments towards the US as a leader of the free world.

    The government-funded radio station began as a method of keeping US troops informed during the Second World War and was administered by the Office of War Information.

    After WWII, Congress passed the Smith-Mundt Act of 1948, which aimed to promote a “better understanding” of the US around the world and to “strengthen cooperative international relations”.

    This act put the VOA under the domain of the United States Information Agency (USIA). It became one of the US government’s many assets in combating Soviet propaganda during the Cold War.

    The VOA was essentially a method of generating soft power, an invaluable tool in international diplomacy made famous by the American political scientist, Joesph Nye.

    As Nye believed, a nation can use military intervention (“hard power”) to achieve its foreign policy aims, or it can create familiarity with other nations by promoting its culture, educational institutions and ideology (“soft power”).

    During the Cold War, VOA broadcasts were an invaluable method of cultivating soft power. People all over the world relied on them as a source of news and commentary, especially in countries where the media was state-controlled.

    Additionally, Voice of America effectively became an advertisement for the American way of life. The Music USA program, for instance, took Western popular culture to a global audience. This was especially effective in the Eastern Bloc, where jazz, in particular, became incredibly popular.

    Voice of America and the other US-funded radio stations operating during the Cold War, such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, had their share of critics. The majority came from the Eastern Bloc. Some, however, were American.

    In the 1970s, Senator William J. Fulbright, for instance, maintained that radio broadcasts such as VOA hindered diplomacy with the Soviet Union by disseminating American propaganda. He called them “Cold War relics”.

    They were not mere propaganda mouthpieces, though. Although these stations and many of the other radio outlets under the control of the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) were funded by the American government, they demonstrated a reliance on journalistic integrity.

    The VOA has also not shied away from reporting on negative aspects of American society. This is likely one reason why Trump has been so critical of its mandate.

    The end of US soft power?

    The short-term implications of Voice of America’s potential demise are worrying. Many journalists are out of work and a respected institution promoting international diplomacy hangs in the balance.

    The long-term geopolitical implications, however, could be far greater. First, Voice of America and other stations managed by USAGM have long provided an alternative to state-run media in countries such as Russia and China.

    Outlets like Russia’s Sputnik news organisation, which was recently removed from the airwaves in Washington for promoting antisemitic content and misinformation about the war in Ukraine, will now face fewer challenges reaching a global audience.

    Taking VOA off the air also signals the Trump administration is done with soft power as a diplomatic tool and has little regard for the harm this will cause America’s reputation on the global stage.

    If the US abandons the principles of appealing to other governments through soft power, it could resort to other means to achieve its geopolitical aims. This includes hard power.

    One soft power advocate, General James Mattis, told Congress in 2013 when he was overseeing US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, “If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately.”

    The Trump administration’s rejection of soft power as a diplomatic tool could also allow China, in particular, to take its place.

    As Nye himself pointed out in a recent Washington Post essay, polling in 24 countries in 2023 found the US was viewed much more positively than China. Another survey showed the US had the advantage over China in 81 of 133 countries surveyed.

    Nye concluded: “If Trump thinks he will easily beat China by completely forgoing soft power, he is likely to be disappointed. And so will we.”

    Ben Hammond has received funding from the Harry S. Truman Foundation and the Dwight D. Eisenhower foundation.

    – ref. Voice of America took jazz behind the Iron Curtain. Now, its demise signals the end of US soft power – https://theconversation.com/voice-of-america-took-jazz-behind-the-iron-curtain-now-its-demise-signals-the-end-of-us-soft-power-252898

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Not just the stadium: what Brisbane Olympic organisers are planning for

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By H. Björn Galjaardt, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

    Brisbane was awarded the Olympics and Paralympics more than 1,300 days ago, and much has happened in between.

    On Tuesday, upbeat Queensland premier David Crisafulli revealed the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games plan.

    This came after a 100-day review by the Games Independent Infrastructure and Coordination Authority (GIICA).

    More than 5,000 submissions were received from the general public. The review included topics such as precincts and transport systems, while evaluating topics such as demand and affordability.

    So, what’s going to be happening in Queensland before, during and after the games?

    The main event: venues

    Get ready for the likes of Taylor Swift, Pink, Coldplay and others to finally come to Brisbane with the announcement of a new world-class 63,000 seat Olympic Stadium to be built in Victoria Park in Brisbane.

    All indications are major codes, such as the Australian Football League (AFL) and cricket, are also very pleased, as they will have a new home replacing the outdated Gabba.

    Other venues, both in South East Queensland and in regional areas such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Cairns and Townsville, were also outlined.

    One of these is a new 25,000-seat swimming complex at Spring Hill, making it one of the world’s best facilities.

    As Australia is a swimming powerhouse with major medal hauls expected in 2032, this news was well received.

    However, a few of the GIICA recommendations were not accepted. The government has announced rowing will take place in Rockhampton – and not interstate – in an existing flat water venue.

    Why the delays?

    There had been plenty of criticism of the decision-making delays on facilities and their locations. But the Queensland government’s 2032 Games Delivery Plan indicates there is no need to panic.

    Previously, the International Olympic Committee chose a host city seven years out, but under new protocols, Los Angeles in 2028 and Brisbane in 2032 have been given 11 years to finalise planning.

    Previous Australian games (Melbourne in 1956 and Sydney in 2000) only had seven years to organise their events.

    In the case of Melbourne, several controversies erupted due to the costs of building a new stadium at proposed sites such as the Royal Showgrounds or Princes Park.

    Eventually, politics and economics intervened, and a refurbished Melbourne Cricket Ground within an impressive Olympic Park precinct was agreed on.

    In the case of Sydney, the original idea back in the 1960s was to host either the Commonwealth Games or the Olympic Games at Moore Park, an inner-city region home to the Sydney Cricket Ground, a golf course and parklands.

    But many local residents were vehemently opposed to that suggestion, so other sites were sought.

    Eventually, the uninhabited Homebush site was chosen in 1973. This was an unexpected decision because it was the most polluted environment in Australia and its remediation, however noble, would be an enormous challenge.

    And so it proved.

    When Sydney was awarded the games in 1993, timeline pressures prompted organisers to bulldoze toxic waste into mounds on site, where they were covered with clay and landscaped.

    Meanwhile, the promised remediation of toxic waterways in Homebush Bay never proceeded.

    All that said, the Sydney games provided tangible legacies. The Olympic Village is now the suburb of Newington, there are parklands and cycle paths for visitors, and from a sport perspective several facilities remain in use today. In 2024, more than 10 million people visited the Sydney Olympic Park precinct, attending sport, concerts, or participating in social activities.

    Opportunities and hurdles

    The initial hiccups associated with the Brisbane games have resulted in some interesting and healthy debate, but this major project now has a positive vibe.

    There is more than enough time to build the new facilities (including the athletes’ villages), upgrade existing ones, build the necessary transport infrastructure, and ensure community engagement.

    The “Queensland way” seems not only to be referring to a better games, but also the legacy that comes with it.

    Generational infrastructure (for example, the upgrade of transport connectivity), housing (such as the conversion of the RNA Showgrounds and a multimillion dollar investment into grassroots clubs can enable the next generations of Queenslanders to compete.

    Tourism and regionalisation of the games through a 20-year plan should ensure the impact of the games goes far beyond 2032.

    Some fine-tuning is expected the next few years though, and there may be unforeseen issues that arise – here are some.

    1. Beyond the 31 core sports that must feature, will new sports necessitate changes or additions to proposed venues? Host cities are now allowed to have 4-5 sports added to the program which could cause increases to the budget.

    2. Will the federal government fund the games on the currently agreed 50-50 basis with the Queensland government? This currently sits at around $7 billion split two ways, but it is likely to rise based on cost over-runs on virtually all major builds across Australia.

    3. Will there be some tweaking of chosen venues due to local issues, lobbying by Olympic sports, political decisions and other factors?

    4. Will a global health issue (such as COVID during the Tokyo 2021 games) or a major world problem (such as the current Gaza or Ukraine conflicts) impact the games in some way?

    The Brisbane games are following the footsteps of Melbourne 1956 (affectionately referred to as the “friendly games”) and Sydney 2000 (the “best games ever”).

    The eventual Brisbane label has yet to be determined. But the Brisbane games will no doubt add to the Olympic folklore of Australia in their own unique way.

    Björn is a PhD Candidate in Olympic Coaches’ Learning at the University of Queensland and a casual academic in Sports Coaching subjects.

    Daryl Adair and Richard Baka do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Not just the stadium: what Brisbane Olympic organisers are planning for – https://theconversation.com/not-just-the-stadium-what-brisbane-olympic-organisers-are-planning-for-251247

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Alone Australia is back. An expert explains what happens to your body and mind when you’re starving

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Therese O’Sullivan, Associate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, Edith Cowan University

    SBS Publicity

    Alone Australia is back this week for a third season on SBS. And its ten contestants are learning what it means to be really hungry.

    They’ve been dropped alone into separate areas of the Tasmanian wilderness to film their experiences of the elements, isolation and hunger. The person who lasts the longest wins the A$250,000 prize.

    The contestants are trying various methods to find food. But not everyone’s had success in fishing, trapping and foraging. And the effects on their bodies and minds are already evident.

    Here’s what happens when hunger and starvation kick in.

    Shelter, water, food

    After shelter and water, food is a main concern for long-term survival – not just for Alone Australia contestants.

    Many of us are familiar with the feeling of hunger – discomfort caused by a lack of food. Hunger is a complex process that involves regulation of blood glucose levels and release of hormones that control appetite and how full you feel. For instance, when we are hungry, the stomach produces the hormone ghrelin, telling us it’s time to eat.

    Starvation is a much more serious state. It’s a long period without enough food that results in severe disruption to how the body normally works.

    A healthy person may be able to survive without food for around one to two months. However, the length of time is likely to be affected by many factors including age, sex, fitness, health, sleep and access to clean drinking water.

    Last year’s winner of Alone Australia made it to 64 days, much of it without enough food.

    But even successful survivalists can struggle to find and eat enough food to meet their requirements. One previous contestant lost as much as 11 kilograms over eight days.

    Hunger is already an issue for contestants, most of whom are struggling to find food.

    What happens if you don’t have enough food?

    A lack of food doesn’t just affect your body size. It also affects the way your body functions. People can experience extreme tiredness, have trouble remembering recent events, and feel colder due to a drop in body temperature.

    Prolonged starvation can also have psychological impacts and affect the way you think, reason and make decisions.

    We have some clues from a study that would be unethical to reproduce today.

    The Minnesota Starvation Experiment started in 1944 to examine the effects of starvation on the body. The idea was to replicate the degree of starvation experienced in areas of Europe during world war two.

    Thirty-six healthy young men who were conscientious objectors to war service volunteered to undergo a six-month semi-starvation phase where their calorie intake was halved, followed by a three-month rehabilitation.

    Data showed they lost an average of one-quarter of their body weight (including a reduced heart mass).

    But other impacts included depression, fatigue and irritability. One participant said:

    little things that wouldn’t bother me before or after would really make me upset.

    Participants had difficulty concentrating, and their attitudes towards food changed dramatically. They had constant thoughts about food, hoarded food and even started collecting cookbooks. Many of these attitudes and behaviours lasted even after rehabilitation back to a normal diet.

    Yes, feeling ‘hangry’ is real

    Most Australians will be fortunate to never experience the same levels of starvation as in the Minnesota experiment or in Alone Australia.

    But even skipping a meal can have an impact on our wellbeing. We become
    “hangry” – when hunger leads us to be irritable or angry.

    A study of 64 participants from Europe tracked their hunger and emotions over 21 days. The more hungry the participants were, the more hangry they felt and the more unpleasant feelings they reported (for example, feeling depressed or stressed versus feeling relaxed or excited).

    When people are hungry, they are also more likely to have intrusive, mind-wandering thoughts.

    In a complex reading and comprehension task, the minds of people who hadn’t eaten for five hours wandered more than the minds of people who had eaten recently. Those who were hungry also performed worse on the task.

    So in Alone Australia, it’s easy to see how hunger can lead people to lose focus on what they’re doing, and their minds wandering. Rather than focusing on the best spot to go fishing, contestants’ minds can wander to feelings of self-doubt.

    Muzza from Victoria caught some fish early on. But will his success continue?
    Credit Narelle Portanier/SBS

    Hunger also affects decision making

    Feeling hungry also affects how you make rational decisions, but there’s conflicting evidence.

    Hungry people are more likely to make impulsive decisions about food. In Alone Australia, this might result in a decision to eat fish raw rather than cooking it first, a more hazardous choice due to an increased risk of infection from parasites.

    However, hungry people can show better judgement when making complex decisions with uncertain outcomes – like a gambling task. So being mildly hungry (in this study, overnight fasting) might sharpen your survival instincts. In Alone Australia, hungrier contestants may make better decisions around where to place hunting traps.

    But hunger’s effect on decision making is likely to depend on the context. It may make people more impulsive in some situations, but more strategic and willing to take risks in others.

    For the contestants in Alone Australia, some risk taking will be required to secure an ongoing food supply. This will be crucial to successfully surviving in the Tasmanian wilderness.

    Therese O’Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Alone Australia is back. An expert explains what happens to your body and mind when you’re starving – https://theconversation.com/alone-australia-is-back-an-expert-explains-what-happens-to-your-body-and-mind-when-youre-starving-249937

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Glass Menagerie: the haunting beauty of Tennessee Wiliams’ play endures in this Sydney revival

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney

    Prudence Upton

    Tennessee Williams (1911-1983) is widely regarded as one of America’s greatest playwrights. A prolific and unabashedly autobiographical writer, Williams’ career spanned four decades of the 20th century.

    The Glass Menagerie, which premiered in Chicago on December 26 1944, was the writer’s first major success. It won scores of national theatrical awards and catapulted Williams to enduring fame.

    An engrossing new production of the classic play, currently running at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, does more than simply revive the famous piece of theatre. It revitalises it for modern audiences.

    A troubled family from St. Louis

    The Glass Menagerie is a lyrical exploration of memory, longing and familial obligation.

    Set in the 1930s in St. Louis, the play revolves around three adult members of the Wingfield family: Tom, a restless and possibly closeted young man torn between duty and desire; Laura, his painfully shy sister, whose physical disability and introversion leave her isolated from the world; and Amanda, their domineering but fragile mother who clings to faded Southern dreams.

    The plot is simple, and draws direct inspiration from Williams’ troubled family life. The Wingfields are struggling to get by. They live in a cramped apartment, in the shadow of an absent patriarch who we hear “fell in love with long distances” a long time ago.

    Amanda is desperate to secure a future for Laura. She pins her hopes on the arrival of a “gentleman caller”, convinced that marriage is the only hope for her daughter’s security.

    The plot follow the Wingfields, a small family struggling to get by in the 1930s in St. Louis.
    Prudence Upton

    When Tom – who is also the play’s narrator (a cutout for Williams himself) – invites a colleague to dinner, the overbearing Amanda seizes the opportunity to present Laura in the best possible light. Suffice to say, things do not end well.

    Lifting lyricism to its highest level

    Potted plot summaries don’t really do The Glass Menagerie justice.

    As Liesel Badorrek, director of the new production at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, points out, “Williams wanted to break with the prosaic realism that he felt had dominated the American theatre” and fashion a new, more symbolic approach to theatre, where memory and emotion take precedence over conventional forms of dramatic action.

    According to Williams himself, his aim was to demonstrate

    that truth, life, or reality is an organic thing which the poetic imagination can represent or suggest, in essence, only through transformation, through changing into other forms than those which were merely present in appearance.

    To bring his vision to life, Williams combined heightened poetic dialogue, repeated musical motifs and unconventional stagecraft. In doing so, he intentionally blurred the lines between reality and memory, allowing the audience to experience the emotional truth of the characters, rather than a literal depiction of events.

    This innovative approach to dramatic form was revolutionary at the time and became a hallmark of Williams’ mature work. As Arthur Miller once wrote:

    The Glass Menagerie in one stroke lifted lyricism to its highest level in our theatre’s history, but it broke new ground in another way. What was new in Tennessee Williams was his rhapsodic insistence that form serve his utterance rather than dominating and cramping it.

    Ensemble Theatre revives Williams’ play in a way that is both timeless and transcendent.
    Prudence Upton

    A fresh take with remarkable depth

    Miller’s observations about poetic rhapsody and form are worth keeping in mind when discussing the Ensemble Theatre’s impressive take on The Glass Menagerie.

    One of the great merits of the production is how it does justice to Williams’ formal innovations while also engaging the audience on an emotional level.

    Making excellent use of expressionistic lighting (Verity Hampson) and sound design (Maria Alfonsine and Damian de Boos-Smith), Badorrek’s production strikes a fine balance between preserving the play’s delicate, dreamlike structure and grounding its characters in charged performances that feel immediate and often painfully real.

    Deftly blending humour and pathos, the cast of four delivers strong performances that ensure the play’s vivid lyricism enhances (but does not overwhelm) its emotional core.

    Blazey Best’s Amanda delivers a tour de force performance.
    Prudence Upton

    Blazey Best’s Amanda is in equal measure maddening and charming, a true tour de force. Her verbal sparring with Danny Ball’s Tom was an early high point of the evening. One particularly striking moment was staged entirely in silhouette – elongated shadows stretching across the stage’s backdrop.

    That said, to me the true standouts were Bridie McKim and Tom Rogers, whose interpretations of Laura and the gentleman caller, Jim, lifted the entire production.

    In particular, McKim, who has called for greater disability representation in Australian theatre, brings remarkable depth and dynamism to the role of Laura. She imbues Laura with vulnerability and, crucially, strength.

    McKim imbues Laura with both vulnerability and strength.
    Prudence Upton

    McKim and Rogers breathe new life into this 81-year old staple of the dramatic canon. Their performances render Williams’ work fresh and contemporary, ensuring the play feels as urgent today as it would have in its post-war heyday.

    Alexander Howard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Glass Menagerie: the haunting beauty of Tennessee Wiliams’ play endures in this Sydney revival – https://theconversation.com/the-glass-menagerie-the-haunting-beauty-of-tennessee-wiliams-play-endures-in-this-sydney-revival-252293

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: This budget’s tax tinkering isn’t the same as meaningful tax reform. Here’s why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristen Sobeck, Research Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Miha Creative/Shutterstock

    Labor’s tax changes this week do not tackle tax reform, or why we desperately need it. They only address the amount collected from personal income tax, which is the largest source of tax revenue.

    Real tax reform would review taxes such as the GST, taxes on savings (including housing and super), and personal and corporate income tax – and ensure they are sustainable over the long term.

    Tax cuts and tax revenue relate to the amount of tax the government collects. Reform needs to tackle both the amount of tax and how we collect it.

    It involves redesigning how we collect tax revenue in a way that is efficient, equitable, simple and resilient, to improve the well-being of all Australians.

    And the quantum – how much we collect as part of tax reform – depends on the demand for government services, which is growing, with structural budget deficits forecast for the next 10 years.

    So how does the income tax system work?

    When you earn a salary from your job, every dollar earned above A$18,200 is taxed. Income earned between $18,201 to $45,000 is taxed at 16 cents per dollar. Three higher tax brackets follow, as the table below shows. This is known as a progressive tax system, where the tax rate increases as your income rises.

    Mathematically, this means that if a worker named Jane has a $130,000 salary, the first $18,200 of her income is tax free, the next $26,800 of her salary is taxed at 16 cents for each dollar and so on. Her total income tax bill is $29,788.

    In the budget, the Labor government announced from July 1 2026, it would cut the 16 cents marginal income tax rate to 15 cents and from July 1 2027 to 14 cents. As the example above shows, the proposed reductions will affect all Australian income taxpayers, not just low income earners.

    The legislation passed parliament late on Wednesday night, but the Coalition has said it will repeal the cuts if it wins the election.

    What is bracket creep?

    Workers generally receive an increase in their wage each financial year. But in recent years, the increase in wages received by some workers hasn’t been enough to keep up with inflation (changes in prices).

    This is the case for our imaginary worker, Jane. Where she lives, prices have increased by 10%. Her employer has offered her a wage increase of 5%, so now she earns $136,500. However, everything where Jane lives is now 10% more expensive, so while her salary has increased, the purchasing power of her wage has declined.

    Unfortunately for Jane, the income tax system completely disregards her decline in living standards. Since her salary has increased she owes more income tax.

    This is what’s referred to as bracket creep. It’s also known as fiscal drag. It arises when our income tax bill goes up, our take-home pay (our disposable income) goes down as a result, and our standard of living declines.

    Sometimes inflation can push a person into a higher income tax bracket. This is the case for Jane, who now pays 37 cents per dollar on $555 of her income. However it also applies if a taxpayer remains in the same income tax bracket (since their salary still goes up and they owe more income tax).

    Is bracket creep a good or a bad thing?

    For workers, bracket creep is bad news because it reduces their after-tax income while their standard of living declines.

    However, for governments it can be a useful tool.

    First, bracket creep allows governments to collect more revenue than they would in the absence of inflation. Higher inflation means more revenue. This approach enables governments to increase expenditure and/or offer tax cuts to offset bracket creep. The government is doing the latter even in a period of budget deficit.

    Second, bracket creep can be useful for governments during periods of high inflation. Governments need to rein in spending to reduce high inflation and bracket creep is one way of achieving this goal.

    Given these benefits, Australia is not alone among developed countries that opt to change their income tax thresholds on a discretionary basis. Just over half (55%) of OECD countries took this approach in 2022 for their personal income tax systems.

    The remaining OECD countries (45%) applied automatic indexation in 2022. Indexation ensures that taxpayers’ income tax bills only increase (in real terms) when their wages increase by more than inflation.

    But ensuring tax brackets keep pace with inflation is only one part of the tax picture. Neither side of politics is addressing the sort of major tax reforms needed to make the tax system more sustainable and match fit for the 21st century. But the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute is prepared with ideas when they are.

    Kristen Sobeck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. This budget’s tax tinkering isn’t the same as meaningful tax reform. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/this-budgets-tax-tinkering-isnt-the-same-as-meaningful-tax-reform-heres-why-253121

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: When a 1-in-100 year flood washed through the Coorong, it made the vital microbiome of this lagoon healthier

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Keneally, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Environmental Microbiology, University of Adelaide

    Darcy Whittaker, CC BY

    You might know South Australia’s iconic Coorong from the famous Australian children’s book, Storm Boy, set around this coastal lagoon.

    This internationally important wetland is sacred to the Ngarrindjeri people and a haven for migratory birds. The lagoon is the final stop for the Murray River’s waters before they reach the sea. Tens of thousands of migratory waterbirds visit annually. Pelicans, plovers, terns and ibises nest, while orange-bellied parrots visit and Murray Cod swim. But there are other important inhabitants – trillions of microscopic organisms.

    You might not give much thought to the sedimentary microbes of a lagoon. But these tiny microbes in the mud are vital to river ecosystems, quietly cycling nutrients and supporting the food web. Healthy microbes make for a healthy Coorong – and this unassuming lagoon is a key indicator for the health of the entire Murray-Darling Basin.

    For decades, the Coorong has been in poor health. Low water flows have concentrated salt and an excess of nutrients. But in 2022, torrential rains on the east coast turned into a once-in-a-century flood, which swept down the Murray into the Coorong.

    In our new research, we took the pulse of the Coorong’s microbiome after this huge flood and found the surging fresh water corrected microbial imbalances. The numbers of methane producing microbes fell while beneficial nutrient-eating bacteria grew. Populations of plants, animals and invertebrates boomed.

    We can’t just wait for irregular floods – we have to find ways to ensure enough water is left in the river to cleanse the Coorong naturally.

    Under a scanning electron micrograph, the mixed community of microbes in water is visible. This image shows a seawater sample.
    Sophie Leterme/Flinders University, CC BY

    Rivers have microbiomes, just like us

    Our gut microbes can change after a heavy meal or in response to dietary changes.

    In humans, a sudden shift in diet can encourage either helpful or harmful microbes.

    In the same way, aquatic microbes respond to changes in salinity and freshwater flows. Depending on what changes are happening, some species boom and others bust.

    As water gets saltier in brackish lagoons, communities of microbes have to adapt or die. High salinity often favours microbes with anaerobic metabolisms, meaning they don’t need oxygen. But these tiny lifeforms often produce the highly potent greenhouse gas methane. The microbes in wetlands are a large natural source of the gas.

    While we know pulses of freshwater are vital for river health, they don’t happen often enough. The waters of the Murray-Darling Basin support most of Australia’s irrigated farming. Negotiations over how to ensure adequate environmental flows have been fraught – and long-running. Water buybacks have improved matters somewhat, but researchers have found the river basin’s ecosystems are not in good condition.

    Wetlands such as the Coorong are a natural source of methane. The saltier the water gets, the more environmentally harmful microbes flourish – potentially producing more methane.
    Vincent_Nguyen

    The Coorong is out of balance

    A century ago, regular pulses of fresh water from the Murray flushed nutrients and sediment out of the Coorong, helping maintain habitat for fish, waterbirds and the plants and invertebrates they eat. While other catchments discharge into the Coorong, the Murray is by far the major water source.

    Over the next decades, growth in water use for farming meant less water in the river. In the 1930s, barrages were built near the river’s mouth to control nearby lake levels and prevent high salinity moving upstream in the face of reduced river flows.

    Major droughts have added further stress. Under these low-flow conditions, salt and nutrients get more and more concentrated, reaching extreme levels due to South Australia’s high rate of evaporation.

    In response, microbial communities can trigger harmful algae blooms or create low-oxygen “dead zones”, suffocating river life.

    The big flush of 2022

    In 2022, torrential rain fell in many parts of eastern Australia. Rainfall on the inland side of the Great Dividing Range filled rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin. That year became the largest flood since 1956.

    We set about recording the changes. As the salinity fell in ultra-salty areas, local microbial communities in the sediment were reshuffled.

    The numbers of methane-producing microbes fell sharply. This means the floods would have temporarily reduced the Coorong’s greenhouse footprint.

    Christopher Keneally sampling for microbes in the Coorong in 2022.
    Tyler Dornan, CC BY

    When we talk about harmful bacteria, we’re referring to microbes that emit greenhouse gases such as methane, drive the accumulation of toxic sulfide (such as Desulfobacteraceae), or cause algae blooms (Cyanobacteria) that can sicken people, fish and wildlife.

    During the flood, beneficial microbes from groups such as Halanaerobiaceae and Beggiatoaceae grew rapidly, consuming nutrients such as nitrogen, which is extremely high in the Coorong. This is very useful to prevent algae blooms. Beggiatoaceae bacteria also remove toxic sulfide compounds.

    The floods also let plants and invertebrates bounce back, flushed out salt and supported a healthier food web.

    On balance, we found the 2022 flood was positive for the Coorong. It’s as if the Coorong switched packets of chips for carrot sticks – the flood pulse reduced harmful bacteria and encouraged beneficial ones.

    While the variety of microbes shrank in some areas, those remaining performed key functions helping keep the ecosystem in balance.

    From 2022 to 2023, consistent high flows let native fish and aquatic plants bounce back, in turn improving feeding grounds for birds and allowing black swans to thrive.

    A group of black swans cruise the Coorong’s waters.
    Darcy Whittaker, CC BY

    Floods aren’t enough

    When enough water is allowed to flow down the Murray to the Coorong, ecosystems get healthier.

    But the Coorong has been in poor health for decades. It can’t just rely on rare flood events.

    Next year, policymakers will review the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which sets the rules for sharing water in Australia’s largest and most economically important river system.

    Balancing our needs with those of other species is tricky. But if we neglect the environment, we risk more degradation and biodiversity loss in the Coorong.

    As the climate changes and rising water demands squeeze the basin, decision-makers must keep the water flowing for wildlife.

    Christopher Keneally receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. His research is affiliated with The University of Adelaide and the Goyder Institute for Water Research. Chris is also a committee member and former president of the Biology Society of South Australia, and a member of the Australian Freshwater Sciences Society.

    Matt Gibbs receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Sophie Leterme receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). Her research is affiliated with Flinders University, with the ARC Training Centre for Biofilm Research & Innovation, and with the Goyder Institute for Water Research.

    Justin Brookes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When a 1-in-100 year flood washed through the Coorong, it made the vital microbiome of this lagoon healthier – https://theconversation.com/when-a-1-in-100-year-flood-washed-through-the-coorong-it-made-the-vital-microbiome-of-this-lagoon-healthier-252633

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neuroscience Research Australia

    Monika Wisniewska/Shutterstock

    Jason, a 42-year-old father of two, has been battling back pain for weeks. Scrolling through his phone, he sees ad after ad promising relief: chiropractic alignments, acupuncture, back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches.

    His GP told him to “stay active”, but what does that even mean when every movement hurts? Jason wants to avoid strong painkillers and surgery, but with so many options (and opinions), it’s hard to know what works and what’s just marketing hype.

    If Jason’s experience sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Back pain is one of the most common reasons people visit a doctor. It can be challenging to manage, mainly due to widespread misunderstandings and the overwhelming number of ineffective and uncertain treatments promoted.

    We assessed the best available evidence of non-drug and non-surgical treatments to alleviate low back pain. Our review – published today by the independent, international group the Cochrane Collaboration – includes 31 Cochrane systematic reviews, covering 97,000 people with back pain.

    It shows bed rest doesn’t work for back pain. Some of the treatments that do work can depend on how long you’ve been in pain.

    Is back pain likely to be serious?

    There are different types of low back pain. It can:

    • be short-lived, lasting less than six weeks (acute back pain)
    • linger for a bit longer, for six to twelve weeks (sub-acute)
    • stick around for months and even years (chronic, defined as more than 12 weeks).

    In most cases (90-95%), back pain is non-specific and cannot be reliably linked to a specific cause or underlying disease. This includes common structural changes seen in x-rays and MRIs of the spine.

    For this reason, imaging of the back is only recommended in rare situations – typically when there’s a clear suspicion of serious back issues, such as after physical trauma or when there is numbness or loss of sensation in the groin or legs.

    Many people expect to receive painkillers for their back pain or even surgery, but these are no longer the front-line treatment options due to limited benefits and the high risk of harm.

    International clinical guidelines recommend people choose non-drug and non-surgical treatments to relieve their pain, improve function and reduce the distress commonly associated with back pain.

    So what works for different types of pain? Here’s what our review found when researchers compared these treatments with standard care (the typical treatment patients usually receive) or no treatment.

    What helps for short-term back pain

    1. Stay active – don’t rest in bed

    If your back pain is new, the best advice is also one of the simplest: keep moving despite the pain.

    Changing the way you move and use your body to protect it, or resting in bed, can seem like to right way to respond to pain – and may have even been recommended in the past. But we know know this excessive protective behaviour can make it harder to return to meaningful activities.

    This doesn’t mean pushing through pain or hitting the gym, but instead, trying to maintain your usual routines as much as possible. Evidence suggests that doing so won’t make your pain worse, and may improve it.

    2. Multidisciplinary care, if pain lingers

    For pain lasting six to 12 weeks, multidisciplinary treatment is likely to reduce pain compared to standard care.

    This involves a coordinated team of doctors, physiotherapists and psychologists working together to address the many factors contributing to your back pain persisting:

    • neurophysiological influences refer to how your nervous system is currently processing pain. It can make you more sensitive to signals from movements, thoughts, feelings and environment

    • psychological factors include how your thoughts, feelings and behaviours affect your pain system and, ultimately, the experience of pain you have

    • occupational factors include the physical demands of your job and how well you can manage them, as well as aspects like low job satisfaction, all of which can contribute to ongoing pain.

    It’s important to keep up your normal routines when you have low back pain.
    Raychan/Unsplash

    What works for chronic back pain

    Once pain has been around for more than 12 weeks, it can become more difficult to treat. But relief is still possible.

    Exercise therapy

    Exercise – especially programs tailored to your needs and preferences – is likely to reduce pain and help you move better. This could include aerobic activity, strength training or Pilates-based movements.

    It doesn’t seem to matter what type of exercise you do – it matters more that you are consistent and have the right level of supervision, especially early on.

    Multidisciplinary treatment

    As with short-term pain, coordinated care involving a mix of physical, occupational and psychological approaches likely works better than usual care alone.

    Psychological therapies

    Psychological therapies for chronic pain include approaches to help people change thinking, feelings, behaviours and reactions that might sustain persistent pain.

    These approaches are likely to reduce pain, though they may not be as effective in improving physical function.

    Acupuncture

    Acupuncture probably reduces pain and improves how well you can function compared to placebo or no treatment.

    While some debate remains about how it works, the evidence suggests potential benefits for some people with chronic back pain.

    Some people may find relief from accupuncture.
    Katherine Hanlon/Unsplash

    What doesn’t work or still raises uncertainty?

    The review found that many commonly advertised treatments still have uncertain benefits or probably do not benefit people with back pain.

    Spinal manipulation, for example, has uncertain benefits in acute and chronic back pain, and it likely does not improve how well you function if you have acute back pain.

    Traction, which involves stretching the spine using weights or pulleys, probably doesn’t help with chronic back pain. Despite its popularity in some circles, there’s little evidence that it works.

    There isn’t enough reliable data to determine whether advertised treatments – such back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches – are effective.

    How can you use the findings?

    If you have back pain, start by considering how long you’ve had it. Then explore treatment options that research supports and discuss them with your GP, psychologist or physiotherapist.

    Your health provider should reassure you about the importance of gradually increasing your activity to resume meaningful work, social and life activities. They should also support you in making informed decisions about which treatments are most appropriate for you at this stage.

    Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo receives funding from the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF).

    Aidan Cashin receives funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant

    – ref. Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/do-any-non-drug-treatments-help-back-pain-heres-what-the-evidence-says-253122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rowan Martin-Hughes, Senior Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    CI Photos/Shutterstock

    In January, the Trump administration ordered a broad pause on all US funding for foreign aid.

    Among other issues, this has significant effects on US funding for HIV. The United States has been the world’s biggest donor to international HIV assistance, providing 73% of funding in 2023.

    A large part of this is the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which oversees programs in low- and middle-income countries to prevent, diagnose and treat the virus. These programs have been significantly disrupted.

    What’s more, recent funding cuts for international HIV assistance go beyond the US. Five countries that provide the largest amount of foreign aid for HIV – the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands – have announced cuts of between 8% and 70% to international aid in 2025 and 2026.

    Together, this may mean a 24% reduction in international HIV spending, in addition to the US foreign aid pause.

    We wanted to know how these cuts might affect HIV infections and deaths in the years to come. In a new study, we found the worst-case scenario could see more than 10 million extra infections than what we’d otherwise anticipate in the next five years, and almost 3 million additional deaths.

    What is HIV?

    HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system. HIV can be transmitted at birth, during unprotected sex or thorough blood-to-blood contact such as shared needles.

    If left untreated, HIV can progress to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), a condition in which the immune system is severely damaged, and which can be fatal.

    HIV was the world’s deadliest infectious disease in the early 1990s. There’s still no cure for HIV, but modern treatments allow the virus to be suppressed with a daily pill. People with HIV who continue treatment can live without symptoms and don’t risk infecting others.

    A sustained global effort towards awareness, prevention, testing and treatment has reduced annual new HIV infections by 39% (from 2.1 million in 2010 to 1.3 million in 2023), and annual deaths by 51% (from 1.3 million to 630,000).

    Most of that drop happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic was worst. Today, nearly two-thirds of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all live in low- and middle-income countries.

    HIV can be diagnosed with a simple blood test.
    MaryBeth Semosky/Shutterstock

    Our study

    We wanted to estimate the impact of recent funding cuts from the US, UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands on HIV infections and deaths. To do this, we used our mathematical model for 26 low- and middle-income countries. The model includes data on international HIV spending as well as data on HIV cases and deaths.

    These 26 countries represent roughly half of all people living with HIV in low- and middle income countries, and half of international HIV spending. We set up each country model in collaboration with national HIV/AIDS teams, so the data sources reflected the best available local knowledge. We then extrapolated our findings from the 26 countries we modelled to all low- and middle-income countries.

    For each country, we first projected the number of new HIV infections and deaths that would occur if HIV spending stayed the same.

    Second, we modelled scenarios for anticipated cuts based on a 24% reduction in international HIV funding for each country.

    Finally, we modelled scenarios for the possible immediate discontinuation of PEPFAR in addition to other anticipated cuts.

    With the 24% cuts and PEPFAR discontinued, we estimated there could be 4.43 million to 10.75 million additional HIV infections between 2025 and 2030, and 770,000 to 2.93 million extra HIV-related deaths. Most of these would be because of cuts to treatment. For children, there could be up to an additional 882,400 infections and 119,000 deaths.

    In the more optimistic scenario in which PEPFAR continues but 24% is still cut from international HIV funding, we estimated there could be 70,000 to 1.73 million extra new HIV infections and 5,000 to 61,000 additional deaths between 2025 and 2030. This would still be 50% higher than if current spending were to continue.

    The wide range in our estimates reflects low- and middle-income countries committing to far more domestic funding for HIV in the best case, or broader health system dysfunction and a sustained gap in funding for HIV treatment in the worst case.

    Some funding for HIV treatment may be saved by taking that money from HIV prevention efforts, but this would have other consequences.

    The range also reflects limitations in the available data, and uncertainty within our analysis. But most of our assumptions were cautious, so these results likely underestimate the true impacts of funding cuts to HIV programs globally.

    Sending progress backwards

    If funding cuts continue, the world could face higher rates of annual new HIV infections by 2030 (up to 3.4 million) than at the peak of the global epidemic in 1995 (3.3 million).

    Sub-Saharan Africa will experience by far the greatest effects due to the high proportion of HIV treatment that has relied on international funding.

    In other regions, we estimate vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and trans and gender diverse people may experience increases in new HIV infections that are 1.3 to 6 times greater than the general population.

    The Asia-Pacific received US$591 million in international funding for HIV in 2023, which is the second highest after sub-Saharan Africa. So this region would likely experience a substantial rise in HIV as a result of anticipated funding cuts.

    Notably, more than 10% of new HIV infections among people born in Australia are estimated to have been acquired overseas. More HIV in the region is likely to mean more HIV in Australia.

    But concern is greatest for countries that are most acutely affected by HIV and AIDS, many of which will be most affected by international funding cuts.

    Rowan Martin-Hughes receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Debra ten Brink has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Nick Scott receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    – ref. Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths – https://theconversation.com/foreign-aid-cuts-could-mean-10-million-more-hiv-infections-by-2030-and-almost-3-million-extra-deaths-253017

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neuroscience Research Australia

    Monika Wisniewska/Shutterstock

    Jason, a 42-year-old father of two, has been battling back pain for weeks. Scrolling through his phone, he sees ad after ad promising relief: chiropractic alignments, acupuncture, back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches.

    His GP told him to “stay active”, but what does that even mean when every movement hurts? Jason wants to avoid strong painkillers and surgery, but with so many options (and opinions), it’s hard to know what works and what’s just marketing hype.

    If Jason’s experience sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Back pain is one of the most common reasons people visit a doctor. It can be challenging to manage, mainly due to widespread misunderstandings and the overwhelming number of ineffective and uncertain treatments promoted.

    We assessed the best available evidence of non-drug and non-surgical treatments to alleviate low back pain. Our review – published today by the independent, international group the Cochrane Collaboration – includes 31 Cochrane systematic reviews, covering 97,000 people with back pain.

    It shows bed rest doesn’t work for back pain. Some of the treatments that do work can depend on how long you’ve been in pain.

    Is back pain likely to be serious?

    There are different types of low back pain. It can:

    • be short-lived, lasting less than six weeks (acute back pain)
    • linger for a bit longer, for six to twelve weeks (sub-acute)
    • stick around for months and even years (chronic, defined as more than 12 weeks).

    In most cases (90-95%), back pain is non-specific and cannot be reliably linked to a specific cause or underlying disease. This includes common structural changes seen in x-rays and MRIs of the spine.

    For this reason, imaging of the back is only recommended in rare situations – typically when there’s a clear suspicion of serious back issues, such as after physical trauma or when there is numbness or loss of sensation in the groin or legs.

    Many people expect to receive painkillers for their back pain or even surgery, but these are no longer the front-line treatment options due to limited benefits and the high risk of harm.

    International clinical guidelines recommend people choose non-drug and non-surgical treatments to relieve their pain, improve function and reduce the distress commonly associated with back pain.

    So what works for different types of pain? Here’s what our review found when researchers compared these treatments with standard care (the typical treatment patients usually receive) or no treatment.

    What helps for short-term back pain

    1. Stay active – don’t rest in bed

    If your back pain is new, the best advice is also one of the simplest: keep moving despite the pain.

    Changing the way you move and use your body to protect it, or resting in bed, can seem like to right way to respond to pain – and may have even been recommended in the past. But we know know this excessive protective behaviour can make it harder to return to meaningful activities.

    This doesn’t mean pushing through pain or hitting the gym, but instead, trying to maintain your usual routines as much as possible. Evidence suggests that doing so won’t make your pain worse, and may improve it.

    2. Multidisciplinary care, if pain lingers

    For pain lasting six to 12 weeks, multidisciplinary treatment is likely to reduce pain compared to standard care.

    This involves a coordinated team of doctors, physiotherapists and psychologists working together to address the many factors contributing to your back pain persisting:

    • neurophysiological influences refer to how your nervous system is currently processing pain. It can make you more sensitive to signals from movements, thoughts, feelings and environment

    • psychological factors include how your thoughts, feelings and behaviours affect your pain system and, ultimately, the experience of pain you have

    • occupational factors include the physical demands of your job and how well you can manage them, as well as aspects like low job satisfaction, all of which can contribute to ongoing pain.

    It’s important to keep up your normal routines when you have low back pain.
    Raychan/Unsplash

    What works for chronic back pain

    Once pain has been around for more than 12 weeks, it can become more difficult to treat. But relief is still possible.

    Exercise therapy

    Exercise – especially programs tailored to your needs and preferences – is likely to reduce pain and help you move better. This could include aerobic activity, strength training or Pilates-based movements.

    It doesn’t seem to matter what type of exercise you do – it matters more that you are consistent and have the right level of supervision, especially early on.

    Multidisciplinary treatment

    As with short-term pain, coordinated care involving a mix of physical, occupational and psychological approaches likely works better than usual care alone.

    Psychological therapies

    Psychological therapies for chronic pain include approaches to help people change thinking, feelings, behaviours and reactions that might sustain persistent pain.

    These approaches are likely to reduce pain, though they may not be as effective in improving physical function.

    Acupuncture

    Acupuncture probably reduces pain and improves how well you can function compared to placebo or no treatment.

    While some debate remains about how it works, the evidence suggests potential benefits for some people with chronic back pain.

    Some people may find relief from accupuncture.
    Katherine Hanlon/Unsplash

    What doesn’t work or still raises uncertainty?

    The review found that many commonly advertised treatments still have uncertain benefits or probably do not benefit people with back pain.

    Spinal manipulation, for example, has uncertain benefits in acute and chronic back pain, and it likely does not improve how well you function if you have acute back pain.

    Traction, which involves stretching the spine using weights or pulleys, probably doesn’t help with chronic back pain. Despite its popularity in some circles, there’s little evidence that it works.

    There isn’t enough reliable data to determine whether advertised treatments – such back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches – are effective.

    How can you use the findings?

    If you have back pain, start by considering how long you’ve had it. Then explore treatment options that research supports and discuss them with your GP, psychologist or physiotherapist.

    Your health provider should reassure you about the importance of gradually increasing your activity to resume meaningful work, social and life activities. They should also support you in making informed decisions about which treatments are most appropriate for you at this stage.

    Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo receives funding from the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF).

    Aidan Cashin receives funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant

    – ref. Do any non-drug treatments help back pain? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/do-any-non-drug-treatments-help-back-pain-heres-what-the-evidence-says-253122

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence spending: our research shows how Australia can stop buying weapons for the wars of the past

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University

    Department of Defence

    Australia’s defence spending is on the rise. The future defence budget has already been increased to 2.4% of GDP. There is pressure from the new Trump administration in the United States to raise this further to at least 3%.

    The Albanese government has brought forward A$1 billion in defence spending for the 2025 federal budget. The Coalition in turn has promised to spend even more if elected.

    However, it is unclear whether the money will be spent wisely. Our recent research found that current defence planning may leave the Australian Defence Force (ADF) poorly prepared for future conflicts.

    To keep up, Australia must develop capabilities for contemporary “grey zone” operations (coercive statecraft activities that blur the line between peace and war, or fall short of war), as well as future 21st-century conflicts. Priority areas are cyber, information and space technologies.

    Positive signs and missteps

    In the past two years, we have seen a slew of announcements about the current and future capabilities of the ADF.

    Some have been positive. A new Defence Space Command has been set up. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review and 2024 Defence Industry Development Strategy were both promising.

    There have also been missteps. The MRH90 helicopters have been stood down. A $7 billion military satellite project was cancelled. And the Collins class submarines face ongoing problems.

    Defence experts have complained of “a lack of clear purpose and intent, a lack of direct connection between strategic objectives and industry policy, and a continuing project-by-project approach”.

    The ADF acknowledges the need for advanced technological capabilities. However, in practice it is still too focused on platforms and hardware suited more for the conflicts of the past.

    The current context and challenges

    Several Defence reviews over the past 50 years have found that the ADF procurement and acquisition system lacks the agility and resources to adapt to changes in the strategic environment.

    Defence spending as a share of GDP has been declining in Australia since the end of the Vietnam War. Notably, the ADF has focused on reducing costs, lowering errors in defence procurement, outsourcing to industry, and speeding up acquisition.



    Read more:
    FactCheck: is Defence spending down to 1938 levels?

    Despite the recent plans to increase defence budgets, critics argue the strategy is too little, too late. It delays the acquisition of most new capabilities to beyond five years from now.

    On October 30 2024, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced a major acquisition of missiles, other guided weapons and explosive ordnance. Many of these acquisitions were simply plugging existing gaps, and would not be ready until at least 2029.

    Many of the acquisitions (such as missiles, 155mm ammunition and submarines) did not quite align with the government’s Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy (DISTS) launched the previous month.

    The hard task of planning ahead

    Making plans for defence procurement is a difficult task. The strategic environment changes quickly, and technology can move even faster. As a result, planned acquisitions may be irrelevant by the time they arrive.

    However, there are ways to get better at forecasting. These include horizon scanning, to spot potentially important developments early, and systemic design for a big-picture approach. These approaches can also be combined with AI-supported analysis tools including scientometrics (which analyses the amount of research in different areas and how it is all linked) and natural language processing.

    We used these tools in recent research funded by the Australian Defence Department to explore the impact of emerging technologies on ADF capabilities.

    Scanning the horizon

    In our first project, we conducted a comprehensive horizon scan of emerging technologies, focusing on cyber, internet of things (or networked smart devices), AI, and autonomous systems.

    We used scientometric research methods, which provide a bird’s-eye view of research into disruptive and converging technologies.

    This was supplemented by a survey asking industry professionals and experts to evaluate emerging technologies. In particular, we asked about their potential impact, likelihood of deployment or utilisation, extensiveness of use, and novelty of use in future conflicts.

    The survey data was analysed using a qualitative, machine-driven, AI-based, data analysis tool. We used it for text mining, thematic and content analyses.

    We found the likelihood of deployment and utilisation of cyber technologies in conflict is very high in the near term, reflecting the growing challenges in this area. Similarly, AI technologies were also singled out for their immediate potential and urgency.

    We concluded that to maintain a competitive edge, the ADF must invest significantly in these priority areas, particularly cyber, network communications, AI and smart sensors.

    Designing better systems

    Our second project was a systemic design study evaluating Australia’s opportunities and barriers for achieving a technological advantage in light of regional military technological advancement.

    The study highlighted ten specific technologies or trends as potential force multipliers for the ADF. We found three areas with immediate potential and urgency: cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, optimisation and other algorithmic technologies, followed by space technologies.

    These findings were reinforced in further research supported by the Army Research Scheme. It found the ADF’s capabilities for operating effectively in the “grey zone” will be strongly facilitated by ensuring it is maintaining its technological edge in the integration of its cyber capabilities and information operations.

    A widespread challenge

    The ADF is not alone in these challenges. For example, successive UK governments have also identified persistent challenges in defence acquisition. These have included issues with budgetary planning due to limited competition, significant barriers to entry for new enterprises, and the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape.

    However, this should not be an excuse. Instead, in line with the Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy, and as our research has found, it should serve as a catalyst for action.

    The ADF should focus on fostering emerging technologies and enabling the development of disruptive military capabilities to deliver asymmetric advantage for the ADF. As Australia’s Chief Defence Scientist notes, this will help get emerging technologies into the hands of our war fighters faster.

    The authors would like to acknowledge the following people from Edith Cowan University who contributed to the research: Helen Cripps, Jalleh Sharafizad, Stephanie Meek, Summer O’Brien, David Suter and Tony Marceddo.

    Pi-Shen Seet received funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Anton Klarin receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Janice Jones receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme

    Mike Johnstone receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    Violetta Wilk receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grant Program and the Australian Army Research Scheme.

    – ref. Defence spending: our research shows how Australia can stop buying weapons for the wars of the past – https://theconversation.com/defence-spending-our-research-shows-how-australia-can-stop-buying-weapons-for-the-wars-of-the-past-242788

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Humans are bad at reading dogs’ emotions – but we can learn to do better

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juliane Kaminski, Associate professor of comparative Psychology, University of Portsmouth

    Seregraff/Shutterstock

    A lot of dog owners believe that they can tell what their dogs are feeling. They believe that they can assess their dog’s emotions no matter the context.

    Yet newspapers frequently publish stories about dogs who attack “out of nowhere”, where owners claim there were “no signs” prior to the attack. A recent US study has found the answer may lie with humans – as it turns out, we’re not very good at interpreting dogs’ emotions.

    Previous research has shown that experience with dogs affects how successful people are in assessing a dog’s emotional state. As a psychologist, the more I know about dogs and the more I study and observe them, the better I become in assessing their behaviour. However, even experts can struggle to get it right.

    In the recent US study, researchers looked at how successful people are at assessing dogs’ emotions from looking at pictures. The images showed the dogs in different postures such as submissive or anxious. Sometimes the context around the dog was positive (for example, the owner approaching the dog with a lead) and sometimes the context around was negative (a person about to scold the dog).

    The study found that the context influenced whether people assessed the dog’s behavioural response as positive or negative even though the posture and other signals didn’t change.

    Research also suggests we have the tendency to misinterpret some facial expressions of dogs. A 2018 University of Lincoln study examined how children aged three to five years old and their parents interpret dogs’ facial expressions.

    Participants were shown pictures of dogs, for example showing bare teeth, which signals high levels of distress. The children especially misinterpreted that as a smiling and happy dog. The study also showed that interventions, which educated participants on how to interpret dogs’ behavioural signals, increased their understanding of dogs’ stress signals (though this was mostly true in the adults).

    We tend to anthropomorphise and attribute human emotions to our dogs. A good example of this is the so-called guilty look. You often see videos on social media in which a dog avoids eye contact with humans, for example turning its head slightly to the side.

    If this happens after the dog has done something they shouldn’t have, the owner may classify this as indicative of shame or guilt. In reality, dogs avoid eye contact as a kind of deescalation behaviour.
    It indicates that they do not want a confrontation. Perhaps the owner has already reacted to the mishap. Or the dog has learned to expect a reaction from the owner in certain situations. Insecure or fearful dogs also often avoid eye contact because they feel threatened or intimidated. However, this behaviour has little to do with shame.

    Another classic misconception is that a dog that wags its tail is a happy and friendly dog. In reality, a wagging tail only means that the dog is aroused. To assess the dog’s emotional state, you also have to consider the position of the tail. If it is standing upright, then this is more a sign of a tense dog. If it is positioned lower and the movement of the tail is relaxed and wide from left to right, then it is probably a friendly signal.

    We anthropomorphise dogs because we have evolved a human-specific way to interpret others’ emotions. If we see a person who pulls up the corners of their mouth and smiles, then we understand them to be happy or at least cheerful. That leads to problems if we apply that system to interpret other species’ emotional expressions.

    So how can we analyse dogs’ emotional expression in an objective way? One approach that scientists use is a technical method called DogFACS. In this method, each facial muscle is assigned a movement on the surface of the face. Facial movements are documented by numbers and analysed separately from each other.

    In 2013 University of Portsmouth researchers went to dog shelters across the UK and filmed dogs for two minutes each. They then analysed the dogs’ behaviour, including their facial expressions.

    The animal shelter told the researchers how long it took for the filmed dogs to be adopted by new owners. Neither barking nor wagging tails influenced the adoption rate, but only a specific eyebrow movement: the so-called puppy dog eyes look. The more often the dogs raised their eyebrows and produced the puppy dog eyes, the quicker they were rehomed. Nothing else had an effect. This could be because the puppy dog eyes resemble a facial movement that we produce when we are sad and makes us want to care for the dog.

    Could you resist those puppy dog eyes?
    SakSa/Shutterstock

    In fact my 2019 study showed that the facial muscle anatomy of dogs has evolved for facial communication with humans. My team compared the facial muscle anatomy of dogs and wolves and demonstrated that the facial muscles of dogs and wolves are identical – except for one muscle, the levator anguli oculi medialis. This muscle is responsible for the lifting of the inner eyebrow in dogs.

    We may not be much good at reading dogs’ emotions but as the University of Lincoln study shows, we can learn to be.

    Juliane Kaminski receives funding from ASAB.

    – ref. Humans are bad at reading dogs’ emotions – but we can learn to do better – https://theconversation.com/humans-are-bad-at-reading-dogs-emotions-but-we-can-learn-to-do-better-252773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New sentencing laws will drive NZ’s already high imprisonment rates – and budgets – even higher

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Mussell, Senior Lecturer, Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury

    Paremoremo Maximum Security Prison near Auckland. Getty Images

    With the government’s Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Bill about to become law within days, New Zealand’s already high incarceration rate will almost certainly climb even higher.

    The new legislation essentially limits how much judges can reduce a prison sentence for mitigating factors (such as a guilty plea, young age or mental ability). A regulatory impact statement from the Ministry of Justice estimated it would result in 1,350 more people in prison.

    This and other law changes are effectively putting more people in prison for longer. By 2035, imprisonment numbers are expected to increase by 40% from their current levels, with significant cost implications. Last year, the Corrections budget was NZ$1.94 billion, up $150 million from the previous year.

    In sheer numbers, the Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will increase from 9,900 to 11,500 prisoners over the next decade. But Minister of Corrections Mark Mitchell recently said government policies could see a peak of 13,900 prisoners over that period.

    New Zealand’s imprisonment rate is already high at 187 per 100,000 people. That’s double the rate of Canada (90 per 100,000), and well above Australia (163 per 100,000) and England (141 per 100,000).

    Accounting for imprisonment and population projections, New Zealand’s prisoner ratio could be between 238 and 263 per 100,000 by 2035. That is higher than the current imprisonment rate in Iran (228 per 100,000).

    The role of remand

    Much of this increase is driven by the number of people awaiting trial or sentencing on remand. This has risen substantially in the past ten years and is expected to keep rising.

    Remand prisoner numbers are projected to nearly equal sentenced prisoners in 2034. Among women and young people, remand numbers are already higher than for sentenced prisoners.

    In October 2024, 89% of imprisoned youth were on remand, a 15% increase in seven years. In December 2024, 53% of women prisoners were on remand, more than double the 24% rate a decade ago. Men on remand comprise 41% of prisoners, nearly double the 21% rate a decade ago.

    Māori are affected most by these increases, making up 81% of imprisoned youth, 67% of imprisoned women and 53% of imprisoned men.

    Some 30% of those on remand are not convicted. Of those who are, data released to RNZ last year showed 2,138 people (15% of remand prisoners) were not convicted of their most serious change, almost double the 2014 figure of 1,075 people.

    Significant court delays can mean people are remanded for a long time. By 2034, it is projected the average remand time will be 99 days, compared with 83 days in February 2024. As well as being a human rights concern, this is very expensive.

    Minister of Corrections Mark Mitchell: prisoner numbers could reach 13,900 over the next decade.
    Getty Images

    Putting more people away for longer

    Crime and imprisonment rates fluctuate independently of each other, as the former Chief Science Advisor acknowledged in a 2018 report. Increasing imprisonment rates are the result of political decisions, not simple arithmetic.

    The Bail Amendment Act 2013 reversed the onus of proof in certain cases, meaning the default rule is that an accused person will not be granted bail. This results in more people being sent to prison while awaiting a hearing, trial or sentencing.

    When this week’s changes to the Sentencing Act come into effect, they will further constrain judges’ discretion, capping sentence reductions for mitigating factors at 40% (unless it would be “manifestly unjust”).

    At the same time, it has become more difficult for prisoners to return to the community. For example, some are kept in prison or recalled because they do not have stable housing. (Dean Wickliffe, currently on a hunger strike over an alleged assault by prison staff, was arrested for breaching parole by living in his car.)

    Last year, Corrections received $1.94 billion in operating and capital budget, a $150 million increase to account for rising imprisonment numbers and prison expansion. There was no meaningful increase in funding for rehabilitation programmes or investment in legal aid.

    Imprisoning people is expensive. The cost of a person on custodial remand has almost doubled since 2015, from $239 a day to $437. For sentenced prisoners, it is $562 per day. This comes to between $159,505 and $205,130 per year to confine one person.

    The Waikeria expansion and beyond

    Corrections has developed a Long-Term Network Configuration Plan to meet anticipated prison population growth. This year’s budget in May will fund 240 high-security beds and 52 health centre beds at Christchurch men’s prison, at a cost of approximately $700-800 million.

    Those 240 beds will fit within 160 cells, meaning “double-bunking”. This is known to have a significant impact to prisoner health and rehabilitation, and can also add to staffing costs.

    Former corrections minister Kelvin Davis acknowledged this before the first 600-bed expansion of Waikeria prison, costed at $750 million in 2018. By June 2023, that had increased by 22% to $916 million.

    The second Waikeria expansion will deliver another 810 beds for an estimated $890 million, although the exact budget has been unclear. These projects will involve public private partnership, a model known for not always delivering the cost savings and service quality initially promised.

    There will be other costs for facilities maintenance, asset management services and financing. And there can be unanticipated costs, too. For example, the government’s partner in the Waikeria expansion, Cornerstone, claimed $430 million against Corrections in 2022 for “time and productivity losses” due to COVID-19.

    These overall trends are happening while the government is also cutting funding for important social services. Shifting resources to improve social supports would be a better option – and one that has worked in Finland – than pouring more money into expanding prisons.

    Linda Mussell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New sentencing laws will drive NZ’s already high imprisonment rates – and budgets – even higher – https://theconversation.com/new-sentencing-laws-will-drive-nzs-already-high-imprisonment-rates-and-budgets-even-higher-253119

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia may no longer be a ‘deputy sheriff’, but its reliance on the US has only grown deeper since 2000

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Andrews, Senior Manager, Policy & Engagement, Australian National University

    The year 2000 marked an inflection point for many Western countries, including Australia, in their outlook towards the world.

    The focus began to shift away from the peacekeeping interventions that had dominated the previous decade to one shaped by counter-terrorism operations and deployments to the Middle East.

    The threat of terrorism hasn’t gone away. But Australia is much more preoccupied by threats of a different nature 25 years later, largely emanating from China. These include cyber attacks, economic coercion, political interference, and the harassment of Australian Defence Force (ADF) ships, aircraft and personnel.

    Though our international outlook has changed a lot over the past quarter century, Australia’s alliance with the US has remained a constant throughout.

    However, as our militaries have grown closer, the US-China competition has also intensified. Combined with the array of unpredictable and destabilising decisions coming from the second Trump administration, this closeness has caused some unease in Australia.

    Evolving threats and challenges

    In December 2000, the Howard government released its first Defence White Paper. This marked the beginning of a period of major change in Australia’s international outlook and presence.

    It emphasised that “two interrelated trends seem likely to shape our strategic environment most strongly – globalisation and US strategic primacy”. It also noted that “military operations other than conventional war [were] becoming more common.”

    The paper was prescient in respect to China’s rise, as well. It said:

    The United States is central to the Asia-Pacific security system […] It will be in Asia that the United States is likely to face the toughest issues in shaping its future strategic role – especially in its relationship with China.

    There is a small but still significant possibility of growing and sustained confrontation between the major powers in Asia, and even of outright conflict. Australia’s interests could be deeply engaged in such a conflict, especially if it involved the United States.

    Yet, nine months after that document’s release, the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, followed by the Bali bombings of 2002, began to dramatically reshape the global security outlook.

    A few days after the September 11 attack, Howard invoked the ANZUS Treaty for the first and only time, joinging US President George W. Bush’s “war on terror”. Australian forces then deployed to Afghanistan as part of the US-led invasion in October 2001.

    By the time the 2003 Foreign Policy White Paper was released, it highlighted “terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, regional disorder and transnational crimes such as people smuggling” as the key features of Australia’s “more complex security environment”.

    A month later, Australia joined the US-led “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein and locate and destroy stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction believed to be there. (It later emerged that evidence of the existence of these weapons was erroneous.)

    Australia contributed 2,000 troops to the mission. Our soldiers remained actively engaged in training, reconstruction and rehabilitation work in Iraq until July 2009.

    Both of these events tied Australia’s foreign policy interests to the US to a greater degree than any time since the Vietnam War.

    Although the relationship with the US had been critical to Australian defence and foreign policy for decades, it had become less prominent in Australia’s strategic planning in the years following the end of the Cold War.

    US support – and diplomatic pressure on Indonesia – had been vital in securing the post-referendum presence of Australian peacekeepers in East Timor in 1999. However, it was the “war on terror” that really re-centred the relationship as core to Australian foreign policy.

    In fact, Australia was even referred to as the US’ “deputy sheriff” in the Asia-Pacific – a nickname used by Bush in 2003 that caused some unease at home and in the region.

    This image has since gone on to have significant staying power, and it’s proved difficult for Australia to dislodge.

    History repeating?

    Though the accusations of war crimes levelled against Australian special forces in Afghanistan continue to reverberate, our foreign policy focus has shifted firmly back to our own region.

    This change was driven in large part by the perceived threat posed by a rising China. While the need to focus more on China was acknowledged as early as the 2009 Defence White Paper, this emphasis became most pronounced under Scott Morrison’s leadership.

    The 2024 National Defence Strategy portrayed Australia as facing “its most challenging strategic environment since the Second World War”.

    It advocated for a significant change in the ADF’s strategic objectives and structure, noting the optimism of the 1990s had been “replaced by the uncertainty and tensions of entrenched and increasing strategic competition between the US and China”.

    Today, the military ties between the US and Australia are arguably as close as they have ever been.

    The ADF operates top-tier US platforms like the F-35 combat aircraft, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, M1 Abrams tanks, and AH-64 Apache helicopters. Defence Minister Richard Marles has gone so far as to say the ADF should not only interoperable with the US, but interchangeable.

    If all goes to plan, Australia will also build and operate its own fleet of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS partnership in the coming decades.

    At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s “America First” positioning has made the US’ closest allies nervous.

    His early moves have put paid to the notion that globalisation is the goal all major states are pursuing. In fact, some argue that deglobalisation may be taking hold as the US aggressively enacts tariffs against its allies, pursues economic onshoring and withdraws from key international bodies.

    These actions have led to many to question whether Australia has become too dependent on its major ally and if we need to emphasise a more self-reliant defence posture. However, this is much easier said than done.

    Looking back, the year 2000 represented the beginning of a period of major change for Australian foreign policy. Such is the pace of change now, we may view 2025 in the same light in another quarter century.

    Whether Australia’s alliance with the US will face long-term harm is yet to be seen. No matter how the bilateral relationship may change, the Indo-Pacific region will continue to be at the core of Australia’s foreign policy outlook, much as it was at the turn of the century.

    This piece is part of a series on how Australia has changed since the year 2000. You can read other pieces in the series here.

    David Andrews has not personally received funding from any relevant external bodies, but he has previously worked on projects funded by the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Home Affairs, and Defence. David is a member of the Australian Labor Party and Australian Institute of International Affairs, and previously worked for the Department of Defence.

    – ref. Australia may no longer be a ‘deputy sheriff’, but its reliance on the US has only grown deeper since 2000 – https://theconversation.com/australia-may-no-longer-be-a-deputy-sheriff-but-its-reliance-on-the-us-has-only-grown-deeper-since-2000-252501

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Happy dogs make happy humans, and 9 other reasons science says dogs need to chew

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul McGreevy, Professor, School of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney

    Chernika 888/Shutterstock

    In the wild, dogs spend a lot of their time chewing on bones, carcasses, sticks and kernels. For example, Australian dingoes can feed for up to 108 minutes in a single session.

    But most domestic dogs chew far less than their free-roaming counterparts. This is largely because of the introduction of easy-to-eat, processed pet foods such as kibble, which now comprises the majority of domestic dogs’ diet.

    This is a problem because although chewing carries some risks, overall it has significant benefits for dogs.

    As our new review, published in Frontiers in Veterinary Science, demonstrates, it enriches the physical, psychological and emotional health of dogs in many interconnected ways.

    1. Food acquisition and nourishment

    Dogs chew primarily to nourish themselves.

    Their large canine, premolar and molar teeth and wide gape help them to capture and dismember prey. Chewing whole carcasses provides them access to marrow, fibre and minerals that would otherwise be inaccessible.

    When they are not chowing down on body parts, free-ranging dogs forage on nuts, berries, and insects – a portion of which are also hidden in kernels, shells or exoskeletons and require chewing.

    Wild dogs such as dingoes can feed for up to 108 minutes in a single session.
    Cynthia A Jackson/Shutterstock

    2. Clean teeth and oral hygiene

    Dental disease is one of the most common health issues in companion and kennelled dogs. It is more common in smaller and older dogs.

    The abrasive action of chewing on hard and fibrous materials helps to remove and prevent the formation of plaque.

    This reduces bad breath, gum disease, tooth loss and therefore the requirement for dental procedures at the vet clinic.

    Of course, dogs with existing dental issues might find it impossible to chew. And it is recognised that some dental fractures may arise from chewing.

    3. Gastrointestinal health

    Chewing between meals can help facilitate digestion in all mammals.

    It can also prevent stomach inflammation and stimulate peristalsis (waves of contractions) in the gastrointestinal tract.

    This helps maintain regular bowel movements and stool consistency.

    4. Healthy microbiome

    The action of chewing promotes resident bugs that comprise a healthy microbiome and reduces harmful microbes, both in the oral cavity and in the lower intestine.

    The microbes of the microbiome work for their own survival and also for that of their dog host, for whom they help maintain healthy oral hygiene and gut health.

    5. Stress management

    Chewing stimulates the rest-and-digest elements of a dog’s life and can reduce acute stress.

    This gives dogs a potential mechanism to manage some of the challenges of both boredom and over-arousal.

    In this way, providing long-lasting chewables can help to alleviate anxiety associated with challenging situations such as being home alone.

    6. Bone density

    Stress is common to all mammals. It causes a release of cortisol, a hormone that can reduce bone density and, over time, lead to osteoporosis.

    Because chewing makes dogs less stressed, it can help to prevent some forms of osteoporosis by reducing corticosteroid concentrations in the blood.

    Chewing helps dogs destress and relax – especially when they’re at home alone.
    Olga Popko/Shutterstock

    7. Performance and focus

    Dogs can moderate their own arousal levels if they have the opportunity to chew.

    This appears to be bidirectional in that chewing can be stimulating for a bored dog or calming for an unsettled dog.

    As such, chewing may be a unique means of bringing dogs into the Goldilocks zone of arousal, also known as “eustress”. This zone improves a dog’s ability to focus, learn and perform complex tasks.

    8. Ageing well

    Dogs are living longer than they have in the past. Because of this, more are experiencing cognitive decline.

    Chewing on a bone or even a stick can help facilitate digestion in dogs and other mammals.
    Drew Rooke, CC BY-NC

    Research has shown that in other mammals, such as humans and rodents, chewing can protect cognitive function.

    For dogs already suffering some loss of cognitive function, chewing, with its variety and manipulative challenges, may be a valuable management tool to help sustain quality of life.

    9. Positive welfare

    The pet industry supplies myriad chewable products ranging from toys, dried or fresh animal products and commercially made chews.

    They are meeting the market populated by carers who’ve noticed their dogs relish chewing.

    Dogs usually become enlivened when offered chews, seeking them out and playing with them.

    Some even find a chew so highly valuable that they risk breaking bonds with dog or human family members by exhibiting resource-guarding behaviours.

    When we fail to provide chewables, dogs will instead select other less appropriate articles to serve their purpose. In the smorgasbord of potential targets in our homes, leather shoes are often toward the top of the menu.

    Providing dogs with healthy chewables will help stop them chewing on our shoes instead.
    Reddogs/Shutterstock

    10. Happy dogs make happy humans

    The very latest study on dog-human relationships has revealed a correlation between dogs’ cardiac responses to positive interactions and those of their human guardians.

    Although this study focussed on co-operative breed types, such as herding dogs, known to be highly responsive to humans, it demonstrated that cardiac activity of dogs and their owners mirrored each other. It also indicated cross-species connections comparable to those found in attachment relationships between humans.

    So, providing your dog with a way to de-stress can have the same benefits for your own emotional and physiological state.

    Incorporating chewing into the daily lives of our dogs may be one simple yet important way to ensure they are living happy and healthy lives. Note that chewing ability is individual and advice on the type of chew and its suitability for your dog should be sought from your veterinarian.

    We would like to acknowledge the enormous contribution of Rimini Quinn to this article.

    Paul McGreevy has received funding from the Australian Research Council, RSPCA Australia and animal welfare focussed philanthropy. He is a member of the British Veterinary Association and currently sits on the NSW Veterinary Practitioners Board.

    Kathryn Mills is affiliated with University of Sydney School of Veterinary Science

    – ref. Happy dogs make happy humans, and 9 other reasons science says dogs need to chew – https://theconversation.com/happy-dogs-make-happy-humans-and-9-other-reasons-science-says-dogs-need-to-chew-244028

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 60-day scripts were supposed to save time and money. So why are we still waiting for cheaper medicines?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

    adriaticfoto/Shutterstock

    Labor has committed A$690 million over four years to cut the maximum cost of medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) to $25. The Coalition has matched the promise, which is estimated to save Australians $200 million a year.

    But consumers could save even more if an existing policy met its potential.

    In 2023, the federal government introduced 60-day prescribing. This meant consumers could get twice as many pills per script, with fewer trips to the pharmacist (and to the doctor for a script).

    The government announced that consumers would save up to $190 a year for a single medicine, and up to $46 for a concession card holder, compared to the costs of a 30-day script.

    But after a tough fight to get this policy, it isn’t living up to its promise.

    A hard-won policy

    It took political courage, and government spending, to get this change.

    Data on political donations show pharmaceutical interests make up the vast bulk of donations from the health sector. The Pharmacy Guild, which represents pharmacy owners, spent the most by far. These donations are an attempt to wield influence behind the scenes. When that fails, the guild isn’t afraid to attack governments in public.

    The federal government stared down a histrionic scare campaign against 60-day prescribing. The guild claimed pharmacies would close due to reduced dispensing fees. It also claimed medicines would run out, and children would overdose due to pill hoarding.

    The government pushed through the policy, but directly compensated rural pharmacies with ongoing payments worth $20 million a year.

    The government also brought forward negotiation of the eighth Community Pharmacy Agreement, which sets how much the government pays pharmacists for dispensing, medication management, and other services. The agreement was signed last year and added $3 billion in new spending.

    A long wait for longer scripts

    After all that conflict and cost, our analysis of PBS data shows the uptake of longer scripts has been painfully slow.

    About 300 drugs for chronic health conditions have been added to the eligibility list in three stages.

    For the first stage of medicines, the 60-day option became available in late 2023. This included common medications such as statins for high cholesterol, perindopril for high blood pressure, and alendronate for osteoporosis.

    More than a year later, in November 2024, only 30% of eligible stage one medicines dispensed were from a 60-day script.

    That’s well short of expectations. The Department of Health and Aged Care predicted 60-day uptake would reach 45% in 2023–24, 58% in 2024–25, and 63% in 2026–27, if fully implemented.

    Across all medicines eligible for 60-day prescribing, including those added in the second and third stages, just 21% of medicines dispensed were from a 60-day script.

    Even at these low rates, we estimate the policy has saved consumers more than $110 million so far. Higher uptake, closer to the rates the department predicted, would mean even more savings.

    Millions of people are missing out. In 2024, there were about 28 million 30-day scripts for statins, compared to about 5 million 60-day scripts. If half of these patients had a 60-day script, they would have saved an extra $27 million a year.

    If half of all eligible medicines were dispensed for 60 days, we estimate patients would have saved an extra $310 million a year. That’s more than the $200 million in expected savings from the $25 medicines promise.

    And while the government spends money on the $25 medicines policy, it saves money from 60-day scripts, by paying pharmacists fewer dispensing fees.

    We estimate the government has already saved $141 million from 60-day prescribing. It could save an extra $297 million a year if uptake increased to 50%.

    So why aren’t more GPs writing longer scripts?

    Despite the Pharmacy Guild’s efforts to undermine the reform, low uptake is more about doctors than pharmacists: the GP who writes the script determines its duration, not the pharmacist.

    Risks for patients aren’t the problem. While 60-day prescribing won’t be right for all patients, experts selected the eligible drugs because prescribing them for 60 days is usually appropriate and safe.

    While there’s some variation in 60-day prescribing rates for different medicines, it’s low across the board. That suggests the problem isn’t about GPs being much more cautious with some drugs than with others.

    The GP determines the duration of the script, not the pharmacist.
    Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

    The culprit is probably inertia. GP practice software generates default prescriptions when a patient has had a drug before. With most people still getting 30-day prescriptions, that will be the default for most repeat scripts. And many patients might not be aware the new 60-day option is available.

    It’s time to get results

    With cost-of-living and health system pressures never far from the headlines, making progress on 60-day prescribing should be a priority.

    The benefits for patient and government budgets are obvious. But the benefits of freeing up time for busy clinicians shouldn’t be overlooked. Longer scripts means less GP time to write them, and less pharmacist time to fill them.

    As Australia gets older and sicker, the need for GP and pharmacist care grows, and there are severe primary care shortages in many parts of the country.

    Every second of GP time that can be freed up for diagnosis, treatment, and to help patients manage their conditions is precious.

    There is also good evidence pharmacists can provide cost-effective medication reviews, chronic disease management advice and other services. Shifting their time from retail to services is a great way to take pressure off the health system.

    So what can be done?

    Fortunately, there are some easy shortcuts to longer scripts.

    Providers of GP software should make 60-day prescribing the default for relevant medicines.

    The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the professional body for GPs, should continue to encourage GPs to write longer scripts.

    Primary Health Networks, the regional bodies responsible for improving primary care, should tell GPs how they compare with their peers, giving a nudge to GPs with low rates of 60-day prescribing.

    Finally, the federal government and consumer groups should run campaigns to inform patients about their options.

    Longer scripts are a triple win: savings on medicines for patients, budget savings for the government, and more time for GPs and pharmacists. Few reforms tick all those boxes, so it’s important this one makes its way from good policy to standard practice.

    Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporates, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporting organisations is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    – ref. 60-day scripts were supposed to save time and money. So why are we still waiting for cheaper medicines? – https://theconversation.com/60-day-scripts-were-supposed-to-save-time-and-money-so-why-are-we-still-waiting-for-cheaper-medicines-250061

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Early exposure to air pollution could affect brain development and mental health later in life: new research

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Hobbs, Associate Professor and Transforming Lives Fellow in Spatial Data Science and Planetary Health, Sheffield Hallam University

    Getty Images

    Exposure to air pollution in early life could have lasting effects on child development and mental health in adolescence, according to our recent study.

    We integrated air pollution data with existing longitudinal data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study (CHDS). The CHDS has followed more than 1,200 children born in the city in 1977, with a strong focus on developmental and mental health outcomes.

    Our aim was to examine how exposure to air pollution shapes development and mental health in later childhood and adolescence. We found an increased risk of attention problems, conduct issues, lower educational attainment and substance abuse in adolescence associated with higher exposure.

    Existing evidence often focuses on adulthood. However, by tracking air pollution exposure from the prenatal period to the age of ten, and linking this data to subsequent cognitive and mental health outcomes, we were able to highlight the long-term consequences of growing up in polluted environments.

    Air pollution is one of the leading environmental contributors to disease, especially respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Children are especially vulnerable to air pollution because their brains and bodies are developing.

    A growing body of evidence suggests air pollution could affect brain development, educational attainment and mental health, contributing to depression, anxiety and conduct or attention problems. Despite this, few studies have tracked long-term exposure to air pollution from early childhood.

    Patterns of exposure

    We chose to conduct this research in Christchurch because the city is a historical air-pollution hotspot, with a documented history of measurements, and because of its long-running birth cohort study.

    The CHDS collects detailed information on participants’ health, development, education and family backgrounds from prenatal into adulthood.

    The city of Christchurch now enjoys much better air quality, but it was an air-pollution hotspot in the past.
    Flickr/Larry Koester, CC BY-SA

    For this study, we linked historical air-pollution data, measured as the concentration of black smoke from 1977 to 1987, to residential locations of birth cohort members. This allowed researchers to estimate each child’s annual exposure to air pollution during key developmental periods.

    We found four distinct patterns of air-pollution exposure across childhood (see graph below):

    • consistently low (these children had the lowest levels of air pollution throughout childhood)

    • consistently high (this groups had the highest levels of air pollution from birth to the age of ten)

    • elevated preschool (exposure peaked between ages three to six and then declined)

    • high prenatal and postnatal (high exposure before and immediately after birth, but declining later).

    We then examined whether children in the higher exposure groups were more likely to experience adverse impacts on cognition, educational achievement and mental health in later childhood and adolescence.

    We adjusted for a range potential confounders such as socioeconomic status, neighbourhood disadvantage and parental characteristics.

    We found children with elevated pre-school exposure had poorer educational attainment and a higher likelihood of conduct disorders and substance abuse problems. High prenatal and postnatal exposure was linked to a greater risk of attention problems as well as substance abuse in adolescence.

    Children with persistently high air-pollution exposure were more likely to develop attention problems and had higher odds of substance abuse issues in adolescence.

    Researchers identified four different trajectory patterns of exposure to air pollution from the prenatal period through to the age of ten.
    Author provided, CC BY-SA

    What these findings mean

    The effects of air pollution on several outcomes were small at an individual level, but they could be highly important at a population level.

    This is because even small shifts in cognitive and mental health outcomes, when applied to entire populations of children exposed to poor air quality, could have major consequences affecting future educational achievement, workforce productivity and public health burdens.

    These findings support previous research suggesting air pollution could affect brain function by causing inflammation, oxidative stress and affecting neurodevelopmental pathways. Importantly, they reinforce the idea that certain developmental periods, such as the prenatal period and early childhood, may be especially sensitive to pollution exposure.

    We need further research to confirm our findings but potential considerations include reducing children’s exposure to air pollution and improving urban air quality by cutting emissions from vehicles, industry and residential heating.

    We should also promote cleaner energy sources to decrease exposure to harmful pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter. Providing better access to green spaces may mitigate the impact of air pollution.

    To strengthen public health and policy measures, we need stricter air quality regulations, particularly around schools and childcare centres. We should also implement air-quality monitoring in urban areas to identify high-risk zones for children.

    Better public information is crucial to minimise indoor and outdoor pollution exposure. This could include the use of air purifiers for indoor activies or limiting outdoor exposure during peak pollution periods.

    Further research and action

    Our study highlights the need for more research on air pollution’s effects on children’s mental health and cognition, particularly in different environmental and socioeconomic contexts.

    Policymakers, educators and healthcare professionals must consider air pollution as a potential risk factor for developmental challenges, not just a physical health concern.

    Air pollution may not be visible in the same way as poor housing or inaccessible healthcare, but its impact on child development could be important at a population level.

    Given the rising prevalence of mental ill health in young people and adults, tackling air pollution could be an overlooked but essential public health strategy for protecting future generations.

    Associate Professor Matthew Hobbs receives funding from Health Research Council of New Zealand and the Clare Foundation, New Zealand.

    Joseph Boden receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Enterprise, and the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

    Lianne Jane Woodward and Susie (Bingyu) Deng do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Early exposure to air pollution could affect brain development and mental health later in life: new research – https://theconversation.com/early-exposure-to-air-pollution-could-affect-brain-development-and-mental-health-later-in-life-new-research-252644

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tiny robot tools powered by magnets could one day do brain surgery without cutting open the skull

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Changyan He, Lecturer, School of Engineering, University of Newcastle

    Photo supplied.

    Most brain surgery requires doctors to remove part of the skull to access hard-to-reach areas or tumours. It’s invasive, risky, and it takes a long time for the patient to recover.

    We have developed new, tiny robotic surgical tools that may let surgeons perform “keyhole surgery” on the brain. Despite their small size, our tools can mimic the full range of motion of a surgeon’s wrist, creating new possibilities for less-invasive brain surgery.

    Tiny tools for brain surgery

    Robotic surgical tools (around 8 millimetres in diameter) have been used for decades in keyhole surgery for other parts of the body. The challenge has been making a tool small enough (3mm in diameter) for neurosurgery.

    In a project led by the University of Toronto, where I was a postdoctoral fellow, we collaborated with The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) in Canada to develop a set of very small neurosurgery tools.

    The tools are only about 3mm in diameter. In a paper published in Science Robotics, we demonstrated these tools could grip, pull and cut tissue.

    Their extremely small size is possible as they are powered not by motors but by external magnetic fields.

    Three magnetic tools: a cutter, a gripper and forceps.
    Changyan He

    Current robotic surgical tools are typically driven by cables connected to electric motors. They work in much the same way as human fingers, which are manipulated by tendons in the hand connected to muscles in the wrist.

    However, pulleys smaller than several millimetres wide to control the instruments are weak and prone to friction, stretch and fracture. This creates challenges in scaling down the instruments, because of difficulties in making the parts of the system, assembling the mechanisms and managing friction in the cables.

    Magnetic controls

    The new robotic system consists of two parts. The first is the tiny tools themselves: a gripper, a scalpel and a set of forceps. The second part is what we call a “coil table”, which is a surgical table with several electromagnetic coils embedded inside.

    In this design, the patient would be positioned with their head on top of the embedded coils, and the robotic tools would be inserted into the brain via a small incision.

    Patients would lie on a ‘coil table’ containing magnets which are used to control the surgical tools.
    Changyan He

    By altering the amount of electricity flowing into the coils, we can manipulate the magnetic fields, causing the tools to grip, pull or cut tissue as desired.

    In open brain surgery, the surgeon relies on their own dexterous wrist to pivot the tools and tilt their tips to access hard-to-reach areas, such as removing a tumour inside the central cavity of the brain. Unlike other tools, our robotic neurosurgical tools can mimic this with “wristed” movements.

    Surprising precision

    We tested the tools in pre-clinical trials where we simulated the mechanical properties of the brain tissue they would need to work with. In some tests, we used pieces of tofu and raspberry placed inside a model of the brain.

    We compared the performance of these magnetically operated tools with that of standard tools handled by trained surgeons.

    We found the cuts made with the magnetic scalpel were consistent and narrow, with an average width of 0.3–0.4mm. That was even more precise than those from traditional hand tools, which ranged from 0.6 to 2.1mm.

    The magnetic scalpel, shown slicing some tofu inside a model of the brain, can make cuts more precise than those done with traditional tools.
    Changyan He

    As for the grippers, they could pick up the target 76% of the time.

    The magnetic grippers (shown here picking up some raspberry) were successful 76% of the time.
    Changyan He

    From the lab to the operating room

    We were surprised by how well the robotic tools performed. However, there is still a long way to go until this technology could help patients. It can take years, even decades, to develop medical devices, especially surgical robots.

    This study is part of a broader project based on years of work led by Eric Diller from the University of Toronto, an expert on magnet-driven micro-robots.

    Now, the team wants to make sure the robotic arm and magnetic system can fit comfortably in a hospital operating room. The team also wants to make it compatible with imaging systems such as fluoroscopy, which uses x-rays.
    After that, the tools may be ready for clinical trials.

    We’re excited about the potential for a new era of minimally invasive neurosurgical tools.

    Changyan He does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tiny robot tools powered by magnets could one day do brain surgery without cutting open the skull – https://theconversation.com/tiny-robot-tools-powered-by-magnets-could-one-day-do-brain-surgery-without-cutting-open-the-skull-253042

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Every 3 years, we play the election date waiting game. Are fixed terms the solution?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jill Sheppard, Senior Lecturer, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    With another election campaign unofficially underway, voters may feel it hasn’t been long since they were last at the voting booth.

    Australia’s Constitution dictates:

    every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General.

    This allows the sitting government to call an election sooner than three years after taking office, but recent norms are for governments to use the full term length available to them.

    But how do politicians and the public feel about this format, and could this change anytime soon?

    Early elections

    In 1998, the John Howard Liberal government called an early election seeking voters’ support for its ambitious plans to introduce a goods and service tax. It came very close to defeat, but clawed its way to victory and nine more years of power.

    In 2016, the Malcolm Turnbull Liberal government took a similar punt, calling an early double dissolution election ostensibly on the issue of union corruption. Again, it came very close to defeat but clawed its way to victory (and six more years of power).

    Despite their reasons for calling early elections, both Howard and Turnbull faced declining global economic conditions and arguably moved tactically to avoid campaigning in the worst of the headwinds.

    Most governments have less appetite for capitalising on external events – like interest rate cuts – when calling an election. Voters already largely distrust politicians, and cynical early elections will only confirm their beliefs.

    Fixed versus non-fixed parliamentary terms

    The ability of a government to unilaterally decide the election date is unusual.

    The political systems most similar to Australia – New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States – all have fixed election dates. Australian states and territories have also increasingly moved to fixed dates, where the government of the day has no discretion over election timing.

    As prime minister, Julia Gillard effectively relinquished her right to manipulate the 2013 election date in her favour. She announced it more than seven months ahead of time. Her government lost the subsequent election.

    Unsurprisingly, there is little political will to move to fixed dates for federal elections. Only current Special Minister of State Don Farrell has expressed even passing support for the idea (and then, only if voters were clearly in favour).

    Fixed terms would undoubtedly benefit voters, who could plan their calendars well in advance. They would also benefit non-government parties and independent candidates, who could budget and plan campaigns around a known election date.

    Who wants longer terms?

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese supports four-year terms, reflecting long-term Labor Party policy.

    The Liberal Party has generally been more ambivalent. Howard was supportive but “not mad keen” in 2005 and supportive, but resigned to failure in 2024.

    Current leader Peter Dutton also backs longer terms, but observes that, among voters, “generally, there is a reluctance to do anything that makes the life of a politician easier”.

    Beyond voters’ reluctance to grant a one-year extension to politicians’ tenure, the issue of senate term lengths is an obstacle to reform.

    Current tradition sets senate terms twice the length of House of Representatives terms, however, Penny Wong has argued that eight-year terms are too long.

    Both New South Wales and South Australia have experience with eight-year terms in their upper houses, but no other states have yet followed.

    How could (and will) terms be changed?

    Any change to federal parliamentary terms would require a successful referendum. The question has been put to Australians once before, in 1988. Only 33% of voters supported the proposal, and no state achieved majority support.

    Polling from April 2024 finds only 38% support, with 18% unsure. Independent and minor party voters – the fastest growing group in Australian politics – were also the most strongly opposed to longer terms.

    As Dutton noted, voters have been reluctant to support “politician-friendly” referendums in the past. There seems almost no chance the 48th parliament would consider a referendum on the issue.

    Would 4-year terms make politics better?

    David Coleman, recently promoted to the Liberal Party’s frontbench, has confidently declared “businesses and consumers tend to hold off on investment during election periods and the phoney war that precedes them”, and so longer terms would improve the domestic economy.

    The business sector seems to agree.

    Are they right? And what about non-economic outcomes?

    Academic research backs up the assumption governments are less likely to announce major tax reforms in the months leading into an election. Shorter terms might also make governments less likely to introduce austerity (strict cost-cutting) measures.

    The weight of academic evidence suggests that whichever party is in power matters far more than the length of the electoral cycle.

    Researchers have struggled to find differences in how politicians with longer terms (usually four years) behave from those with shorter terms (usually two years). Activity levels for the shorter-term politicians appear slightly more frenetic – more fundraising and expenditure, more campaigning – but the outcomes are similar.

    Longer terms do not seem destined to fix Australia’s political malaise.

    Jill Sheppard receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Every 3 years, we play the election date waiting game. Are fixed terms the solution? – https://theconversation.com/every-3-years-we-play-the-election-date-waiting-game-are-fixed-terms-the-solution-250273

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Electric cars are going mainstream – Elon Musk won’t change that

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    “When you ride Tesla, you ride with Hitler” according to a reworked second world war propaganda poster that was discovered in Oakland, California last month.

    When did an electric car brand supposedly become associated with the far right? Perhaps when its CEO, Elon Musk, embraced Donald Trump and the Maga movement that propelled him to a second term as US president. Tesla dealerships have been targets for protests and vandalism, while the company’s sales and stock price have fallen recently.

    “But those same political controversies may ironically help broaden the mass market appeal of electric vehicles,” says Hannah Budnitz, a research associate at the Transport Studies Unit of Oxford University.

    “This is an industry that needs to go beyond the early adopter tech bros – and now might be the moment.”

    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    But first, a disclaimer

    Around a fifth of the greenhouse gas emissions heating Earth can be traced to a vehicle exhaust pipe. The more combustion engines that can be replaced with electric batteries, the less getting from A to B will exacerbate climate change.

    However, electric cars, like those sold by Tesla, are an imperfect solution to the climate crisis.

    “Huge amounts of land which could otherwise be used to house people or be dedicated to nature are still reserved for roads and car parks,” says Vera O’Riordan, an energy policy researcher at University College Cork.



    Read more:
    Electric cars aren’t enough to hit climate targets: we need to develop better public transport too

    And while driving an EV doesn’t emit CO₂, it does emit stuff you wouldn’t want to breathe in. Electric cars, which contain heavy batteries, wear down their tyres faster than conventional cars and generate more microplastic particles in the process, according to Henry Obanya, an ecotoxicologist at the University of Portsmouth.

    Obanya estimates that as much as a quarter of all microplastics in the environment could have come from car tyres.



    Read more:
    Car tyres shed a quarter of all microplastics in the environment – urgent action is needed

    So, the strategy of putting an EV in every garage has its limits (not least the fact that not everyone has a garage, or the space to charge an electric car).

    A more efficient way to decarbonise the second-largest emission source by sector (power generation is first) would be to follow the advice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC, which is made up of scientists and other experts convened by the UN, recommends that countries plan their transport systems according to the maxim “avoid, shift, improve”.

    This involves, O’Riordan explains, avoiding unnecessary journeys by designing towns and cities with amenities in walking distance, shifting passengers onto higher-occupancy vehicles like buses by expanding public transport and improving all travel options by switching from fossil fuels to electric propulsion.

    Let’s assume that decades of car-first urban planning have boxed us in and we don’t have time to undo it before the climate is cooked. How can more motorists be persuaded to turn in their gas-guzzler for a battery-powered model?

    It’s the price, stupid

    Back to Budnitz – and the waning influence of the EV industry’s tech-bro boosters.

    “In 2010, when Tesla became the first American carmaker to go public since Ford in 1956, fully electric cars were still a niche technology,” she says.



    Read more:
    Why the Tesla backlash could help electric cars finally go mainstream

    Back then, Tesla adverts targeted the customers it thought would be early adopters: overwhelmingly, wealthy men like Musk. It worked. Survey after survey in North America and Europe showed that EV ownership in the early 2010s was skewed towards men and those on higher incomes.

    This is in stark contrast to electric car marketing at the dawn of motoring. In 1900, petroleum-powered cars were in the minority (22% of all cars) and were widely considered temperamental “adventure machines” that were prone to breaking down. Electric cars were pitched as a safer, cleaner alternative that was perfect for city travel.



    Read more:
    Electric cars were once marketed as ‘women’s cars’. Did this hold back their development over the next century?

    Perfect, in fact, for wealthy women. During the 1910s, when Victorian attitudes towards gender roles reigned and women were presumed to have limited mobility needs (no need to worry about your battery running flat if you’re not going far), 77% of EVs directly appealed to female consumers.

    “In the short term, this was a successful strategy: car manufacturers that advertised to female consumers survived much longer,” says economic historian Josef Taalbi (Lund University). The only major electric car producer in the US to survive into the 1920s advertised to women, he adds.

    In 2013, there were still less than 60,000 EVs on the road globally. A decade later, almost the same number are sold every day.

    “The transition to electric personal mobility is well underway around the world,” says Budnitz. “Tesla’s troubles won’t stop this – but they can give the car industry an opportunity to make the messaging around electric vehicles more diverse, equitable and inclusive for the mass market.”

    EV manufacturers can make their case to all drivers because they now offer a mass-market product, Budnitz argues. Nowhere is this more true than in Norway, which may become the first country to sell only zero-emission vehicles this year (88.9% of all vehicles sold in Norway in 2024 were fully-electric).

    What’s Norway’s secret?

    “Generous, comprehensive subsidies”, say Agnieszka Stefaniec and Keyvan Hosseini, transport researchers at the University of Southampton.



    Read more:
    How smaller, more affordable electric cars can accelerate the green transition

    “Our recent research shows that affordability is a tool to get everyone on board. When lower-income households face affordability barriers, it’s not just their problem – it’s the missing link to achieving 100%. Smaller, more affordable electric cars could be the game changer needed to bridge this gap.”

    – ref. Electric cars are going mainstream – Elon Musk won’t change that – https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-are-going-mainstream-elon-musk-wont-change-that-253060

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump’s ‘chilling effect’ on free speech and dissent is threatening US democracy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in US politics and international security, University of Portsmouth

    The second Donald Trump administration has already sent shockwaves through the political establishment on both sides of the Atlantic. Overseas, the focus has been on the administration’s apparent dismantling of the post-war international order and Trump’s apparent pivot away from America’s traditional allies towards a warmer relationship with Russia and Vladimir Putin. But within the United States itself, the greatest concerns are associated with administration actions that, for many, suggest a deliberate destruction of American democracy.

    Such fears in the US are not isolated to the political elites, but are shared by citizens across the entire nation. But what is also emerging is a concerted assault on people’s ability to push back – or even complain – about some of the measures being introduced by Trump 2.0. This will inevitably result in what is often called a “chilling effect”, where it becomes too hard – or too dangerous – to voice dissent.

    Many of Trump’s policies – the mass deportations, the wholesale sacking of public servants by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), the decision to revoke birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants – have been challenged in the courts. The Trump administration is now embroiled in a range of legal challenges. It is here that Trump’s disdain for a legal system that has temporarily blocked the wishes of the president has emerged.

    Chilling effect

    Judicial decisions calling for the administration to reverse or pause some of these policies have been greeted by Trump and some of his senior colleagues (including Musk and the vice-president J.D.Vance), with noisy complaints at judicial interference in government. Even, in some cases, calls for the impeachment of judges who rule against the government.

    Not only did the administration ignore the court’s ruling that suspended the forced expulsion of Venezuelans to El Salvador, some of whom were in the US legally, but Trump attacked the judge on social media calling him a corrupt “radical left lunatic” and called for his impeachment.

    This stirred the chief justice of the Supreme Court, John Glover Roberts Jr., to intervene. He reminded the president that America doesn’t settle its disputes, saying that the “normal appellate review process exists for that purpose”. Later, Tom Homan, Trump’s chief adviser on immigration issues, told ABC News that the administration would abide by court rulings on the matter.

    The pressure being brought to bear on America’s legal system has not stopped at the judiciary. Trump has recently targeted some of America’s biggest and most powerful law firms, seemingly for no other reason than their acting for clients who have opposed his administration.

    On March 25, Trump signed an executive order targeting Jenner & Block, one of whose partners, Andrew Weissmann, worked with special prosecutor Robert Mueller on the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The executive order calls for the firms to be blacklisted from government work and for their employees to have any security clearances removed, for them to be barred from any federal government contracts and refused access to federal government buildings. A death warrant for the firm in other words.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    This follows the news that the head of the prestigious law firm Paul Weiss, Brad Karp, had signed a deal with the White House committing to providing millions of dollars worth of pro-bono legal work for causes nominated by the president. He’s also agreed to stop using diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, which had been faced with a similar fate.

    Silencing dissent

    This administration’s chilling effect has also extended to an attack on press freedom. Trump has expelled established news organisations from the Pentagon, curtailed access to press events for the esteemed Associated Press, and taken control of the White House press pool, sidelining major media outlets.

    These actions mark a significant downgrading of press freedom in America. They are undermining the role of independent journalism in their key function of holding power to account. By restricting access and silencing critical voices, his administration has raised concerns over transparency and the free flow of information in the domestic media landscapes.

    Universities have traditionally been bastions of independent thought. We saw that with the massive protests against US policy towards Israel and Palestine which have roiled campuses during the conflict in Gaza. But universities are also seen by many in the administration as a hotbed of “woke” activism. Accordingly Trump 2.0 has fixed its sights on one of the most prominent US universities: Columbia.

    Citing what it says is a repeated failure to protect students from antisemitic harassment, the administration cancelled US$400m (£310 million) of federal contracts with the university. Columbia caved in to the pressure moments before the administration’s deadline passed. It agreed to overhaul its disciplinary procedures and “review” its regional studies programmes, starting with those covering the Middle East.

    Columbia’s academic staff are horrified. They are launching legal action against the government, alleging that “the Trump administration is coercing Columbia University to do its bidding and regulate speech and expression on campus”.

    Democracy in peril

    Why is this all so worrying? The legal system, the media and universities are the pillars of US democratic freedoms. The Trump administration’s undermining of these institutions is a blatant attempt to impose an authoritarian rule by bypassing any counterbalance to executive power. And the US Supreme Court has ruled that he is almost entirely immune from prosecution while doing it.

    The checks and balances system of government in the US was designed to ensure that no single branch could dominate the political process. But partisan loyalty, and loyalty to Trump over the party, now outweighs constitutional responsibility for the majority of those within the Republican Party.

    American democracy is under threat. Not from the external existential threats it faced over the past century such as communism and Islamic fundamentalism, but from within its own system. Those Americans who are terrified about this threat are trying to fight back, but Trump’s assault on dissent is so chilling that this is becoming increasingly dangerous.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump’s ‘chilling effect’ on free speech and dissent is threatening US democracy – https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-chilling-effect-on-free-speech-and-dissent-is-threatening-us-democracy-253139

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How two recent productions of Oedipus offer different meanings through the role of the chorus

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will Shüler, Vice-Dean of Education and Senior Lecturer, School of Performing and Digital Arts, Royal Holloway University of London

    The London theatre scene was all abuzz in January 2024 when two different star-studded West End productions of the ancient Greek tragedy Oedipus were announced within minutes of each other.

    The first production of the Sophocles tragedy, adapted and directed by Robert Icke and starring Mark Strong and Leslie Manville, ran from October 2024 to January 2025, with a Broadway transfer to New York’s Roundabout Theatre Company planned for this autumn.

    The second – which closes at the end of this month – opened weeks later at the Old Vic in a version by Ella Hickson, co-directed by Hofesh Shechter and Matthew Warchus, and starring Rami Malek and Indira Varma.

    Historically, ancient Greek tragedies were retellings of ancient myths, performed in ways that encouraged the audience to reflect upon an old story in a new way. Two London productions of Oedipus might seem like overkill, but they actually demonstrate the versatility of the tragic form.

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    Both productions rework the myth, allowing contemporary audiences to consider different perspectives on the play’s themes of power and knowledge.

    One of the defining aspects of the ancient Greek tragedy is the chorus. Originally they performed in the orchestra of an ancient theatre – the space between the actors and the audience. Their performance of odes was in song and dance form, and the content might reflect upon the play’s events from their perspective, provide background that was either directly or indirectly related to the plot, or spur on the action of the play.

    In Oedipus, the chorus is comprised of citizens of Thebes. The city is suffering from a terrible curse and Oedipus, the king, takes it upon himself to rectify this by following the advice of the gods to discover and punish the murderer of the previous king, Laius.

    The chorus first enters singing – and dancing – about the disasters the people have been facing and prays for their end. For the rest of the play, from the foot of the palace, the chorus observes Oedipus’s investigation, horrific discovery and the piteous aftermath for his family.

    The treatment of the role of the chorus in these two West End productions are essential to the different meanings they make and how they invite audiences to reflect upon the myth in relation to our own world.

    In the Icke adaptation, Oedipus is with his family (wife Jocasta, mother Merope, brother-in-law Creon and three adult children Antigone, Polynices and Eteocles) at his campaign headquarters on the evening of the election.

    In this version the challenge the city faces is governmental corruption. Icke has included more family members than are in Sophocles’s original text and cut the role of the chorus entirely. Its exclusion means the governmental corruption is seen almost entirely from the point of view of this political family.

    The only perspective we get from the citizens is an opening video sequence as Oedipus is interviewed by the press, and the frequent election result updates. The people elect Oedipus. They want what he promises – an end of governmental corruption.

    Icke’s Oedipus strives to do the right thing and break from the string of corrupt, deceitful, narcissistic politicians who have been plaguing the city. The play thereby draws contemporary connections to “draining the swamp” and the “fake news” accusations of Donald Trump.

    Without reflections from the people (the chorus), the play becomes a personal drama about the family’s interests and public image. Oedipus and Jocasta’s grisly ends are entirely about their personal horror at the discovery they have made – that she is actually his mother.

    There is no reflection on how the play’s ending relates to the ongoing trouble faced by the citizens. In this version of events the final impression feels pessimistic – even when leaders try to do the right thing, the system ensures that they will fail.

    In the Old Vic production, the play is set in a Thebes that is suffering from extreme drought (likely alluding to the climate crisis). In Hickson’s adaptation, the chorus remains, but their words have been removed. Only their dance is performed between the scenes of the actors.

    This is not to say that the Sophocles text has been “translated” into movement by Shechter, but rather that the historic function of the chorus (to contemplate, to reflect, to spur on) remains by means of what is communicated in dance – which, according to the Guardian’s theatre critic David Jays becomes “the irresistible core of the tragedy”.

    In the play’s script, each scene ends with the deceptively simple word: “dance”. In performance, Oedipus’ investigation into what is causing the drought, contemplation of prophecies and public speeches to the people of Thebes are all interspersed with Shechter’s evocative choreography. We see their suffering, we see their prayers, we see their perseverance. Their needs never fade into the background but remain the consistent pulse of the play.

    In this version, when Oedipus has his moment of revelation, the rain comes and the people dance in it. This moment imparts impressions of renewed faith, solidarity, fruitfulness, pride, rebirth and life continuing.

    Oedipus enters having blinded himself, not out of personal horror, but in order to cleanse the city and ensure its continued godly favour. In contrast to the Icke production, Schechter and Warchus’s version – though still tragic – is ultimately hopeful.

    The leader has taken responsibility for what they have done and put the needs of the people over his own ambitions and desires. The last moment is not Oedipus’s. It is the chorus’s – and we watch them dance.

    Will Shüler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How two recent productions of Oedipus offer different meanings through the role of the chorus – https://theconversation.com/how-two-recent-productions-of-oedipus-offer-different-meanings-through-the-role-of-the-chorus-252862

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –