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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew J Tatem, WorldPop Director, Professor of Spatial Demography and Epidemiology, University of Southampton

    Arthimedes/Shutterstock

    Every day, decisions that affect our lives depend on knowing how many people live where. For example, how many vaccines are needed in a community, where polling stations should be placed for elections or who might be in danger as a hurricane approaches. The answers rely on population data.

    But counting people is getting harder.

    For centuries, census and household surveys have been the backbone of population knowledge. But we’ve just returned from the UN’s statistical commission meetings in New York, where experts reported that something alarming is happening to population data systems globally.

    Census response rates are declining in many countries, resulting in large margins of error. The 2020 US census undercounted America’s Latino population by more than three times the rate of the 2010 census. In Paraguay, the latest census revealed a population one-fifth smaller than previously thought.

    South Africa’s 2022 census post-enumeration survey revealed a likely undercount of more than 30%. According to the UN Economic Commission for Africa, undercounts and census delays due to COVID-19, conflict or financial limitations have resulted in an estimated one in three Africans not being counted in the 2020 census round.

    When people vanish from data, they vanish from policy. When certain groups are systematically undercounted – often minorities, rural communities or poorer people – they become invisible to policymakers. This translates directly into political underrepresentation and inadequate resource allocation.

    As the Brookings Institution, a US research organisation, has highlighted, undercounts have “cost communities of colour political representation over the next decade”.

    This is happening because several factors have converged. Trust in government institutions is eroding worldwide, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reporting that by late 2023, 44% of people across member countries had low or no trust in their national governments. Research shows a clear trend of declining trust specifically in representative institutions like parliaments and governments. This makes people less likely to respond to government-issued census requests.

    The COVID-19 pandemic created logistical nightmares for census takers. Many countries had to postpone their censuses. Budget cuts to statistical offices reduced capacity, while countries struggled with recruiting field staff.

    International funding for population data is also disappearing. The US-funded Demographic and Health Surveys program, which provided vital survey data across 90 countries for four decades, was terminated in February 2025. Unicef’s Multi-Indicator Cluster program, which carries out household surveys, faces an uncertain future amid shrinking global aid budgets. US government cuts to support for UN agencies and development banks undertaking census support will likely have further impacts.

    This is incredibly worrying to us as geography academics, because gathering accurate population data is fundamentally about making everyone visible. As population scientists Sabrina Juran and Arona Pistiner wrote, this information allows governments to plan for the future of a country and its people.

    The US census directly impacts the allocation of more than US$1.5 trillion (£1.2 trillion) in public resources each year. How can governments distribute healthcare funding without knowing who lives where? How can disaster response be effective if vulnerable populations are invisible in official population counts?

    Solutions that count

    Countries are adapting. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the transition to alternative census methodologies. Many countries turned to online questionnaires, telephone interviews and administrative data sources to reduce face-to-face interactions.

    The UN Economic Commission for Africa recommends that countries move from using paper forms for census data collection and embrace new digital technologies that can be cheaper and more reliable. Turkey’s switch in 2011 reduced census costs from US$48.3 million to US$13.9 million while improving data quality and timeliness, and nearly 80% of countries used tablets or smartphones for data collection in the 2020 round of censuses.

    Collecting census data digitally in Pakistan in 2023.
    Abdul Rauf Khan/Shutterstock

    At WorldPop, our research group at the University of Southampton, we’re also helping governments to develop solutions using new technologies. Buildings mapped from satellite imagery using AI, together with counts of populations from small areas, can help create detailed population estimates to support census implementation or provide estimates for undersurveyed areas.

    As we face growing challenges, from climate change to economic inequality, having accurate, reliable and robust population data isn’t a luxury. It’s essential for a functioning society. National statistical offices, UN agencies, academics, the private sector and donors must urgently focus on how to build cost-effective solutions to provide reliable and robust population data, especially in resource-poor settings where recent cuts will be felt hardest.

    When people disappear from the data, they risk disappearing from public policy too. Making everyone count starts with counting everyone.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Andrew J Tatem works for the University of Southampton, and is Director of WorldPop. His research on mapping populations has been funded by donors such as the Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, GAVI.

    Jessica Espey works for the University of Southampton. Her research on data, statistics and evidence use has previously been funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Gates Foundation and others.

    – ref. Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters – https://theconversation.com/global-population-data-is-in-crisis-heres-why-that-matters-251751

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Humans are bad at reading dogs’ emotions – but we can do learn to do better

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juliane Kaminski, Associate professor of comparative Psychology, University of Portsmouth

    Seregraff/Shutterstock

    A lot of dog owners believe that they can tell what their dogs are feeling. They believe that they can assess their dog’s emotions no matter the context.

    Yet newspapers frequently publish stories about dogs who attack “out of nowhere”, where owners claim there were “no signs” prior to the attack. A recent US study has found the answer may lie with humans – as it turns out, we’re not very good at interpreting dogs’ emotions.

    Previous research has shown that experience with dogs affects how successful people are in assessing a dog’s emotional state. As a psychologist, the more I know about dogs and the more I study and observe them, the better I become in assessing their behaviour. However, even experts can struggle to get it right.

    In the recent US study, researchers looked at how successful people are at assessing dogs’ emotions from looking at pictures. The images showed the dogs in different postures such as submissive or anxious. Sometimes the context around the dog was positive (for example, the owner approaching the dog with a lead) and sometimes the context around was negative (a person about to scold the dog).

    The study found that the context influenced whether people assessed the dog’s behavioural response as positive or negative even though the posture and other signals didn’t change.

    Research also suggests we have the tendency to misinterpret some facial expressions of dogs. A 2018 University of Lincoln study examined how children aged three to five years old and their parents interpret dogs’ facial expressions.

    Participants were shown pictures of dogs, for example showing bare teeth, which signals high levels of distress. The children especially misinterpreted that as a smiling and happy dog. The study also showed that interventions, which educated participants on how to interpret dogs’ behavioural signals, increased their understanding of dogs’ stress signals (though this was mostly true in the adults).

    We tend to anthropomorphise and attribute human emotions to our dogs. A good example of this is the so-called guilty look. You often see videos on social media in which a dog avoids eye contact with humans, for example turning its head slightly to the side.

    If this happens after the dog has done something they shouldn’t have, the owner may classify this as indicative of shame or guilt. In reality, dogs avoid eye contact as a kind of deescalation behaviour.
    It indicates that they do not want a confrontation. Perhaps the owner has already reacted to the mishap. Or the dog has learned to expect a reaction from the owner in certain situations. Insecure or fearful dogs also often avoid eye contact because they feel threatened or intimidated. However, this behaviour has little to do with shame.

    Another classic misconception is that a dog that wags its tail is a happy and friendly dog. In reality, a wagging tail only means that the dog is aroused. To assess the dog’s emotional state, you also have to consider the position of the tail. If it is standing upright, then this is more a sign of a tense dog. If it is positioned lower and the movement of the tail is relaxed and wide from left to right, then it is probably a friendly signal.

    We anthropomorphise dogs because we have evolved a human-specific way to interpret others’ emotions. If we see a person who pulls up the corners of their mouth and smiles, then we understand them to be happy or at least cheerful. That leads to problems if we apply that system to interpret other species’ emotional expressions.

    Could do with adding subhead here

    So how can we analyse dogs’ emotional expression in an objective way? One approach that scientists use is a technical method called DogFACS. In this method, each facial muscle is assigned a movement on the surface of the face. Facial movements are documented by numbers and analysed separately from each other.

    In 2013 University of Portsmouth researchers went to dog shelters across the UK and filmed dogs for two minutes each. They then analysed the dogs’ behaviour, including their facial expressions.

    The animal shelter told the researchers how long it took for the filmed dogs to be adopted by new owners. Neither barking nor wagging tails influenced the adoption rate, but only a specific eyebrow movement: the so-called puppy dog eyes look. The more often the dogs raised their eyebrows and produced the puppy dog eyes, the quicker they were rehomed. Nothing else had an effect. This could be because the puppy dog eyes resemble a facial movement that we produce when we are sad and makes us want to care for the dog.

    Could you resist those puppy dog eyes?
    SakSa/Shutterstock

    In fact my 2019 study showed that the facial muscle anatomy of dogs has evolved for facial communication with humans. My team compared the facial muscle anatomy of dogs and wolves and demonstrated that the facial muscles of dogs and wolves are identical – except for one muscle, the levator anguli oculi medialis. This muscle is responsible for the lifting of the inner eyebrow in dogs.

    We may not be much good at reading dogs’ emotions but as the University of Lincoln study shows, we can learn to be.

    Juliane Kaminski receives funding from ASAB.

    – ref. Humans are bad at reading dogs’ emotions – but we can do learn to do better – https://theconversation.com/humans-are-bad-at-reading-dogs-emotions-but-we-can-do-learn-to-do-better-252773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britons increasingly trust each other – but trust in politicians has slumped since the pandemic

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ben Seyd, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Kent

    ITS/Shutterstock

    One surprise in the early days of the pandemic was people’s increased willingness to trust political authorities. According to the British Social Attitudes survey (BSA), the proportion of people trusting government ministers rose from 15% in 2019 to 23% in 2020. Data from Ipsos MORI showed a similar bounce for trust in government ministers and politicians in 2021. Trust in government was also a significant factor in whether people complied with lockdown rules and other restrictions.

    Since then, however, people’s trust in government has plummeted. The latest BSA survey finds that, in 2023, just 14% of the population said they trust government “always” or “most of the time”. Fully 45% of the population trust government “almost never”. These are the most negative set of figures since the BSA began asking questions on trust almost four decades ago.

    This collapse in trust is perhaps unsurprising given the various government shenanigans over the past few years, notably Boris Johnson’s Downing Street lockdown parties and Liz Truss’s disastrous prime ministerial tenure. However, there is also evidence that Britons have become less trusting as a result of dashed expectations over the benefits of Brexit, negative views of government performance in areas like health, and cost of living pressures.

    Yet while Britons are less trusting of those with political authority, they appear to be more trusting in each other. Back in 1999, 29% of the population believed that “most people [in Britain] can be trusted”. Four decades on, that proportion has increased to 46%, topping the previous high of 43% in 1981. This might partly reflect the sense of collective endeavour and neighbourliness that was instilled during the pandemic, when we were encouraged to look out for, and help, other people. There is also evidence that, while people see the country as a whole as becoming more divided, at the local level perceptions of unity outweigh perceptions of division.

    This is a welcome shift, particularly since trust in other people is associated with a range of positive outcomes, including support for international cooperation and international organisations. In an uncertain and dangerous world, social trust may be an important factor shaping the willingness of states to work together.

    Wellbeing of politicians

    The decline of popular trust in government and politicians is concerning. Low trust is associated with support for populist politicians such as Donald Trump and upheavals like Brexit. Low trust could also significantly compromise public acceptance of, and compliance with, official messages and rules in a future pandemic.

    Distrust can also cause direct harm to public figures. As one of us (James) has shown, politicians are generally poor estimators of public trust in themselves. But where they do perceive widespread distrust, often because of repeated experiences of physical or online abuse and intimidation, this has a significant negative effect on their mental health and wellbeing.

    Messages of kindness and community around London during lockdown.
    Alex Yeung/Shutterstock

    Increased security around MPs – the cost of which jumped from £77,234.67 to £4,381,733.40 between 2014 and 2022 – is likely to protect them from the worst excesses of public distrust where it trickles over into extreme behaviour. Yet given the importance of contact for people’s trust, it could also inadvertently fuel more cynicism by increasing the physical distance between politicians and the public.

    The public’s declining regard for politicians and government should be a source of concern. We are hardly likely to recruit the calibre of politician we expect (and need), or indeed encourage a more diverse population of aspiring representatives, if the personal costs of holding elected office are so high.

    At the same time, a look at the bigger picture offers some reassurance. As one of us (Ben) has recently shown, there is little evidence that low trust induces popular scepticism towards democracy itself, or that it weakens public support for state spending or government programmes in key areas like healthcare.

    Trust on the frontline

    The nature and strength of Britain’s civic ties are revealed not only in our trust of politicians and institutions, but also in how we treat the people who provide public services, such as police officers and health workers.

    On the face of it, the picture is not pretty. Over the past few years, rates of public abuse towards frontline service providers have increased. In 2021, 18% of teachers reported having experienced verbal abuse from a parent or carer in the past year. In 2023, that figure had risen to 30%.

    A survey of police officers in 2022 found that 37% had experienced verbal insults at least once a week over the past year. This was an increase from the 29% of officers who reported a similar level of insults in 2020, although the figure dropped slightly in 2023 to 34%.

    Rates of physical abuse of London ambulance staff have more than doubled in four years, with 346 incidents recorded in 2019, increasing to 728 incidents in 2023. A similar picture of public abuse is found for frontline workers in the health service. Polling in 2023 found that 85% of GPs across the UK had received verbal abuse from members of the public during the past year. A 2021 survey by the British Medical Association found more than half of GPs, and one in five hospital doctors, had experienced verbal abuse in the past month.

    While majorities of the British public express trust in many frontline workers such as nurses and doctors (who currently attract 94% and 88% trust ratings), others appear to take a more negative view, extending even to abusive behaviour.

    Given the range of service providers facing such rising antipathy, it seems unlikely that the trigger for this was the pandemic. A better clue is provided by longer-term data on public treatment of doctors.

    Responses are to a survey question reading ‘In the last 12 months, have you personally experienced harassment, bullying or abuse at work from patients, their relatives or members of the public?’.
    Author provided, data from NHS Staff Survey

    NHS survey figures show that rates of abuse towards doctors declined between 2003 and 2011. (The wording of the relevant survey question changed in 2012, which restricts our ability to compare the more recent data). This was precisely the period when resources were pumped into the health service and public satisfaction with the NHS increased. This suggests that public interactions with frontline service workers like doctors are strongly shaped by the quality of the service they face.

    Indeed, GPs themselves ascribe the verbal abuse they and their staff experience to people’s dissatisfaction with the service, including discontent with access to health services. One underappreciated effect of austerity might thus be an increased public frustration with healthcare workers, which on occasion appears to extend to outright abuse.

    More accessible (read: better funded) public services might reduce some negativity towards frontline service workers. However, the important task of rebuilding people’s trust in politicians is – particularly given the negative coverage by much of Britain’s media – likely to be a trickier task.

    James Weinberg receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    Ben Seyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Britons increasingly trust each other – but trust in politicians has slumped since the pandemic – https://theconversation.com/britons-increasingly-trust-each-other-but-trust-in-politicians-has-slumped-since-the-pandemic-252762

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why eating yoghurt regularly could lower your risk of bowel cancer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Josep Suria/Shutterstock

    Hard on the heels of impressive research findings that a glass of milk is good for reducing cancer risk, another recent study has highlighted the potential benefits of yoghurt consumption in lowering the risk of certain types of cancer – particularly colorectal cancer.

    The number of new colorectal cancer cases among people under 55 has doubled globally in recent years, with diagnoses increasing by nearly 20%. As a consultant oncologist, many people have asked me how their risk can be reduced.

    The emerging evidence suggests that regular yoghurt consumption may have a protective effect against certain aggressive forms of colorectal cancer by modifying the gut microbiome, the natural bacteria that live in the gut.

    The gut microbiome plays a crucial role in overall health, influencing digestion, immune function and even cancer risk. The gut bacteria can live inside cancer itself, and in general a healthy balance of these bacteria is thought to be essential for maintaining a strong immune system and preventing inflammation, which can contribute to cancer development.



    Read more:
    Gut bacteria nurture the immune system – for cancer patients, a diverse microbiome can protect against dangerous treatment complications

    Yoghurt contains live cultures of beneficial bacteria, such as lactobacillus bulgaricus and streptococcus thermophilus, which can help maintain this balance.

    The study found that consuming two or more servings of yoghurt per week was associated with a lower risk of a specific type of aggressive colorectal cancer, which occurs on the right side of the colon and is associated with poorer survival outcomes compared with cancers on the left side.

    The study analysed data from over 150,000 participants followed for several decades, indicating that long-term yoghurt consumption may alter the gut microbiome in ways that protect against certain cancers. Researchers surveyed the participants every two years about their yoghurt intake, and measured the amount of Bifidobacterium (a type of bacteria found in yoghurt) in the tumour tissue of 3,079 people within the sample who were diagnosed with colorectal cancer.

    While yoghurt did not directly lower the risk for all types of colorectal cancer, those who ate two or more servings of yoghurt per week had a lower risk of developing “Bifidobacterium-positive proximal colon cancer”, a type of colorectal cancer that occurs in the right side of the colon and has one of the lowest survival rates. This new work also validates and builds on previous studies showing similar findings.

    Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain how yoghurt might reduce cancer risk. One key mechanism is the modulation of the gut microbiome. Yoghurt’s probiotics can enhance the diversity and balance of gut bacteria, potentially reducing inflammation and levels of cancer-causing chemicals (carcinogens).

    Additionally, yoghurt may exert anti-inflammatory effects on the colon lining cells, called the mucosa, which could help prevent cancer development. Improving gut barrier function is another potential mechanism, as yoghurt may reduce gut permeability, which is linked to increased cancer risk.

    Choose wisely

    Beyond its potential anti-cancer effects, yoghurt offers several other health benefits. Like milk, it is rich in calcium, which supports bone density and may reduce the risk of brittle bones, known as osteoporosis.

    Regular yoghurt consumption has also been associated with lower blood pressure and reduced risk of cardiovascular disease. Some studies suggest that yoghurt intake may help prevent type 2 diabetes and other diseases too.

    But when incorporating yoghurt into your diet, it’s important to choose wisely. Opt for plain, unflavoured yoghurt to avoid added sugars, which can negate health benefits – for example by causing weight gain, which is a risk factor for obesity and cancer.

    Different fermentation processes can result in varying levels of beneficial bacteria, so look for yoghurts with live cultures. Plain, unsweetened Greek yoghurt is generally higher in protein and lower in sugar, while full-fat yoghurt often has fewer processed ingredients than reduced-fat or non-fat variations.

    Yoghurt contains all nine essential amino acids, and aside from improving gut health, a serving of plain Greek yoghurt contains 15 to 20 grams of protein.

    There are nearly 45,000 cases of bowel cancer every year in the UK, making it the nation’s fourth most common cancer, and third worldwide – but many of these are preventable.

    According to Cancer Research UK data, 54% of all bowel cancers could be prevented by having a healthier lifestyle. Smoking, lack of exercise, alcohol, eating processed meat, and poor diet are all significant factors in the development of bowel cancer.

    The emerging evidence suggests that yoghurt, particularly when consumed regularly, may play a role in reducing the risk of certain aggressive forms of colorectal cancer. While more research is needed to fully understand these effects, incorporating yoghurt into a balanced diet could be a beneficial choice for overall health.

    But as with any dietary recommendation, it’s crucial to consider the broader context of a healthy lifestyle, including a diverse diet rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains, along with regular physical activity. While yoghurt is not a magic bullet against cancer, it is a nutritious food that can contribute to a healthy diet and potentially offer protective effects against certain cancers.

    As research continues to uncover the complex relationships between diet, gut health and cancer risk, incorporating yoghurt into your daily routine may be a simple yet beneficial step towards a healthier life.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why eating yoghurt regularly could lower your risk of bowel cancer – https://theconversation.com/why-eating-yoghurt-regularly-could-lower-your-risk-of-bowel-cancer-251942

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s America is facing an Andrew Jackson moment – and it’s bad news for the constitution

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sean Lang, Visiting Fellow in History, Anglia Ruskin University

    Statue of Andrew Jackson in Layfayette Square, Washington DC. Flickr

    How do you deal with an American president who does not obey the US constitution? The question has arisen because the recent episode where deportation flights carrying Venezuelans were dispatched to El Salvador, despite a court ruling that those flights must not proceed, suggests Donald Trump’s administration has a limited understanding of the separation of powers in the US. A president has no power to defy a court order.

    Similarly, a Brown University medical professor, Rasha Alawieh, was deported to Lebanon because of a perceived sympathy for Hezbollah, despite the fact she had a valid US work visa and despite a judge’s order blocking her removal from the US.

    This administration’s seemingly blatant disregarding of constitutional procedure is not the first time such a problem has arisen. Early in the life of the new republic it was posed by the election to the presidency in 1828 of Andrew Jackson. Jackson, an unashamed populist, harboured deep suspicion of all federal institutions. His belief in states’ rights sometimes trumped his commitment to the union.

    Trump echoes Jackson in many ways. Just as Trump reviles Joe Biden, so Jackson scorned his predecessor, John Quincy Adams. Trump’s attacks on institutions such as USAid and the Department of Education, is echoed by Jackson’s extraordinary war on the Bank of the United States, which he thought too big and grand for a democratic people.

    But the parallels come closest in relation to forced expulsion, whether of individuals in Trump’s case, or of whole peoples in Jackson’s.

    When Europeans established their colonies in the Americas, they justified their presence by asserting the philosopher John Locke’s principle that legal title to land belonged to those who farmed it. Since the native peoples were mostly nomadic hunters, this legal fiction enabled the Europeans and their American successors to seize land while claiming it was theirs “by right”.

    But the peoples of the American southeast – the Chickasaw, Choctaw, Creek, Seminole and Cherokee – took the Europeans at their word. They adopted a much more European lifestyle, establishing towns, wearing European clothing, even converting to Christianity. But above all, they started farming the land, even to the point of owning slaves to work on it. They were known, rather patronisingly, as the “five civilised tribes”.

    None of this adoption of western culture would save them, however, when Georgian cotton planters realised, first, that the tribes were sitting on prime cotton-growing land and, subsequently, that there was gold in Cherokee territory. In 1828 the state of Georgia claimed jurisdiction over all the land of the five tribes. Jackson, an old “Indian fighter” and a staunch states-rights southerner who was about to begin his stint as seventh US president, clearly sympathised.

    Jackson’s first State of the Union address made it clear that he intended to remove all the “Indian” tribes to the desert lands west of the Mississippi. In Congress, Jackson’s opponents accused him of betraying the very principles on which the republic had been founded. What had these people done that required their removal – and since they were indeed farmers, why was their right to their own land not to be respected in law?

    Despite these good reasons for these people to be allowed to stay, the 1830 Removal Act passed and the Chickasaw, Choctaw and Creek peoples packed up and left. The Seminole attempted armed resistance but were defeated.

    Supreme Court versus the US president

    The Cherokee took their case to the Supreme Court. The US Supreme Court had originally been intended merely as a final court of appeal, but under its long-sitting chief justice, John Marshall, it had established itself as the ultimate arbiter of what was and was not lawful according to the constitution. And this included acts of the president.

    The court’s new-found constitutional role was deeply resented in the White House as an unacceptable incursion on the rights of the president, even when it ruled in the president’s favour. Now Marshall was being asked to rule on the constitutional legality of Georgia’s claim to the land of the Cherokee people.

    The Cherokee had tried to declare they were a fully independent state, but the court ruled against that. It did, however, find that they constituted a dependent nation within the United States and that, therefore, the State of Georgia had no jurisdiction over them.

    ‘Trail of Tears’: a dark moment in US history.
    Wolfgang Sauber/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Georgia, however, simply ignored the Supreme Court and in 1838 sent in troops to round up and expel the Cherokee people. Some 13,000 people set off on what became known as the “Trail of Tears” – about one-third of them died of weakness, disease and hunger.

    One American officer commented later that: “I fought through the civil war and have seen men shot to pieces and slaughtered by thousands, but the Cherokee removal was the cruellest I ever knew.”

    Jackson was exultant, taunting Marshall that his judgement “has fell still born” and sneering that Marshall had no means of enforcing it. The Cherokee chief, the half-Scottish John Ross, summed up the situation: “We have a country which others covet. This is the only offence we have ever yet been charged with.”

    The Cherokee had found that, if the president chose to ignore it, the US constitution offered no protection to the innocent. It’s a history lesson Greenlanders, Mexicans and Canadians – and indeed many Americans who may fall foul of this administration and seek recourse to the law – would do well to study.

    Sean Lang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s America is facing an Andrew Jackson moment – and it’s bad news for the constitution – https://theconversation.com/trumps-america-is-facing-an-andrew-jackson-moment-and-its-bad-news-for-the-constitution-253047

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Signal chat group affair: unprecedented security breach will seriously damage US international relations

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security & Dean of Faculty, University of Hull

    Plans for an attack against an enemy target are classified in America. But the private views of high-ranking officials about allies, communicated within government, must also count as intelligence to be protected.

    The recent communication of this category of information over the Signal messaging app has been dismissed by the US president, Donald Trump as a mere “glitch”. It is definitely that. But it also raises the prospect that in his first two months of office, key parts of the administration might have inadvertently been leaving sensitive information vulnerable to enemy interception. That would be one of the most serious intelligence breaches in modern history.

    National security advisor, Mike Waltz, has subsequently “taken responsibility” for the episode – but, so far at least, remains in post. Instead, the administration has decided to launch bitter ad hominem attacks against the journalist that revealed this breach of security, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg.

    Storied national security reporter: The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg.
    US Secretary of Defense

    Trump called Goldberg a “total sleazebag”, defense secretary Pete Hegseth referred to him as “deceitful and highly discredited”. Walz called him “the bottom scum of journalists”.

    The recent chat group reported exchange involved the adminstration’s most senior national security officials: Waltz, Hegseth, Vice-President J.D. Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, among others.

    As we know now, it also, accidentally, included Goldberg, himself a storied national security reporter before he took up the editorship of the Atlantic. It’s a national security blunder almost without parallel.

    Interestingly, some of the people on this chat were among those who savaged Hilary Clinton’s use of a personal email address during her time as secretary of state. This was controversial, but did not meet the standard for prosecution. Most of her work-related emails were archived into federal records by their recipients on government email. It was poor practice, and regulations were significantly tightened after.

    If an inquiry is set up about this most recent incident, it will be interesting to see whether these messages are treated as federal records. This would be signficant because the messages would need to be handed over to officials to classify and archive as part of the public record. That would certainly clear up whether this was indeed a “glitch” or whether classified information was indeed shared – something the administration still denies.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    For such an elevated group of US government officials to use a consumer messaging app to talk business invites an easy win for enemy intelligence agencies. America’s key intelligence competitors invest billions of dollars in techniques and technologies to break the toughest encryption. For phone-based communications, we know that apps such as NSO Group’s Pegasus can be used to bypass the encryption on phones.

    The Guardian newspaper’s investigative work has highlighted how journalists and activists were targeted by countries using this technology and the interception capability of capable intelligence nations is far stronger. So the standard security induction to officials would cover communications, devices and protocols.

    It is not clear whether the protocols cover the use of emojis. Waltz’s use of a fist, fire and flag emoji is certainly unusual in diplomatic cables that have been aired publicly.

    Even worse, the communication between these officials was prior to a deployment of US military assets against an enemy target, the Houthi rebels in Yemen. This potentially placed the success of the operation and those assets at risk.

    That the Yemenis did not move assets that had been targeted does not conclusively prove that the communications remained safe. It has long been a practice to pick and choose when to risk revealing that communications are being intercepted.

    Zero accountability

    An ordinary intelligence officer who communicated about highly sensitive and classified deployments through a platform with security that is not accredited or controlled by the intelligence community, would certainly face disciplinary action. An officer who accidentally invited a journalist into this chat would be likely to face even stiffer sanctions. Trump seems to have rallied around his officials, however.

    The US has recent form in vigorously pursuing journalists who publish classified materials. The Edward Snowden leaks caused considerable damage to transatlantic intelligence and Snowden was forced to take up residence in Moscow to avoid prosecution.

    The newspapers who published his papers were subject to strong action from the governments in their countries. The publication of Chelsea Manning’s leaked cables – known as Cablegate – by Julian Assange and Wikileaks resulted in a lengthy process to try and prosecute Assange (Manning herself was prosecuted and was sentenced to 35 years in jail, serving seven).

    But instead, Trump has chosen to spearhead a backlash against The Atlantic – the “messenger”. It fits in with Trump’s antipathy towards the mainstream media and his strong preference for some social media outlets. It might also signal a more serious turn towards intolerance to investigative journalism.

    Diplomatic disaster

    What the Signal messages also reveal is a contempt for European allies among Trump’s most senior people. That will be difficult to repair. Describing allies who have lost thousands of soldiers supporting American foreign policy aims as “pathetic” and “freeloaders” will make it very difficult for those governments to underplay the significance of the comments.

    What we have seen in the Signal messages might herald a new era of diplomacy and policy making, by officials who are not afraid to break established patterns. What we can definitely say is that it is radically different to the diplomacy the rest of the west is used to, and it will be nearly impossible to unsee.

    The western allies will be accelerating their plans to be less dependent on the US – and this will be to America’s detriment.

    Robert Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Signal chat group affair: unprecedented security breach will seriously damage US international relations – https://theconversation.com/signal-chat-group-affair-unprecedented-security-breach-will-seriously-damage-us-international-relations-253090

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Spring statement: defence spending boosted as further disability benefit cuts announced – experts react

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Professor in Economics, University of East London

    Not even six months on from Labour’s first budget, and the world is a much-changed place. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, already high last year, have risen further, and with them the cost of the UK’s debt, while economic growth has stalled. As such, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confronted an array of unpalatable choices – notably cutting disability benefits – to enable her to increase defence spending and stabilise the public finances. Here’s what our panel of experts made of the statement:

    Falling inflation wasn’t enough to prevent further disability cuts

    Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Professor in Economics, University of East London

    The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has halved the UK’s 2025 growth forecast to 1%, down from the previously projected 2%. This sluggish growth, coupled with increased borrowing costs, has effectively eliminated the government’s £9.9 billion “fiscal headroom” – its financial buffer – resulting in a £4.1 billion shortfall by 2029-30.

    There was some short-term relief in the latest inflation figures. These showed a slowdown in price rises in February (2.8% against 3% in January). The dip was caused by discounting of items like clothing. But given around half of businesses are considering price rises to combat tax hikes and the national living wage increase coming in April, this relief is likely to be short-lived. The OBR forecasts that inflation will climb back up to 3.2% this year.

    The government had previously set out its controversial plans for £5 billion in welfare cuts. But the OBR rejected the claim that the reforms would save that much, estimating the savings at £3.4 billion, leaving Reeves with a £1.6 billion shortfall. As such, she has had to announce additional welfare reforms.

    These include freezing the universal credit health element until 2030 and reducing it to £50 a week for new claimants. This is aimed at saving an additional £500 million by 2030 – and combined with other planned welfare reforms could affect more than 3 million people. But the standard allowance for universal credit will see an above-inflation increase from 2026-27 and the incomes of those with the most severe lifelong conditions will be protected.

    Civil service administrative budgets are also to be reduced – by 15% by 2029-30. This, along with other efficiency and productivity improvements, will lead to annual savings of £3.5 billion. These cuts will focus on areas like human resources, policy advice, and office management, rather than frontline services.

    Reeves resorted to tricks and ‘efficiency savings’

    Steve Schifferes, Honorary Research Fellow, City St George’s, University of London

    Reeves has announced a series of tweaks to her spending plans to address the economic situation which has meant that she is in danger of breaking her self-imposed fiscal rules. The chancellor was at pains to say that these rules are “non-negotiable”.

    But these are unlikely to tackle the deeper problem – that in the short term she cannot rely on economic growth to square the circle of Labour’s three contradictory election pledges. These were more spending on public services, lower taxes and strict fiscal rules.

    The UK, in fact, is particularly vulnerable to the disruption of global trade that is likely to result from US president Donald Trump’s tariff wars. And the productivity gains from her long-term infrastructure plans will take years – if not a decade – to translate into higher growth.

    Like many chancellors, Reeves has resorted to various tricks – such as counting money moved to the defence budget to build tanks and aircraft as capital spending (and therefore exempt from the borrowing rules). And she has called for “efficiency savings” in the civil service and government departments that are unlikely to be realised.

    But the biggest savings are coming from deeper than expected cuts in disability payments and other welfare payments, reducing the income of more than 3 million people. This is upsetting many Labour MPs. Her big sweetener – £2 billion for social housing next year – is actually less than that already allocated by the previous Conservative government.

    Crucially, the further savings likely to be demanded in the spending review (announced on June 11) from unprotected departments including local government, justice and environment, will certainly look a lot like a return to austerity.

    In the end – and possibly as soon as the autumn budget – the chancellor will have to accept that as well as spending cuts, she will have to consider tax increases and possibly even a revision of the fiscal rules.

    Otherwise, she will remain at the mercy of the markets and the forecasters. Any long-term strategy will be strangled by the need to continually adjust policy to meet the fiscal “headroom” target she has set which leaves little room for manoeuvre. This requires an implausibly accurate prediction of the state of the economy in five years’ time by the OBR.

    The Civil Service could see 10,000 jobs axed.
    pxl.store/Shutterstock

    Commitment to financial stability is actually increasing uncertainty

    Linda Yueh, Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    The chancellor’s self-imposed fiscal rules are intended to provide stability – one of the foundations of economic growth. One of those rules, which Rachel Reeves has said she will not bend, is that government day-to-day spending must be balanced by tax receipts by the end of this parliament.

    This is intended to provide transparency on fiscal policy. And Reeves clearly understands the importance of how international financial markets react to the UK’s level of spending – and its public debt (currently about 100% of GDP).

    But the world is not a stable place. And with the OBR halving its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1%, unplanned cuts to public spending followed.

    Consistency in fiscal policy helps households and business to plan for the future. But during times of heightened uncertainty with global tariffs looming, GDP is likely to remain volatile. This makes not changing the government’s fiscal stance particularly challenging.

    It is also challenging for chancellor personally, as she would prefer to have one “fiscal event” a year, rather than two. But the OBR is obliged to provide economic forecasts twice a year, and when it slashes expected growth, she is duty bound to respond.

    Somewhat ironically then, the government’s stability rule is having the unintended consequence of adding policy uncertainty to an already uncertain overall economic environment – and more frequent changes to fiscal policy.

    ‘Let’s shake on increasing defence spending, bigly.’
    Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock

    Modest defence spending boost will struggle to reverse years of decline

    Jamie Gaskarth, Professor of Foreign Policy and International Relations, the Open University

    In two months, the UK defence sector has been turned upside down – primarily by Donald Trump. His administration has made implied threats to invade a NATO ally (Denmark), challenged the sovereignty of another (Canada) and pulled support for Ukraine, openly siding with Russia in ceasefire negotiations. There is a real chance the US will draw down its security presence in Europe.

    If European countries are to meet the full cost of their own security, this will have to mean a dramatic increase in defence budgets. So far, the UK has redistributed aid money to help fund an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP (from 2.3%) by 2027, with the ambition to raise it to 3% in the next parliament.

    It has also offered an extra £2 billion to underwrite defence exports. But this is small beer.

    As with many areas of public spending, dramatic cuts to the defence budget during the years of austerity (22% in real terms) have meant delays to procurement, crumbling estates and a chronic lack of investment.

    This will take a substantial uplift to redress. Recent increases under the Conservatives were eaten up by capital costs and inflation.

    And while ideas such as the £400 million ringfenced to support innovation in AI and new technology are welcome, these are tiny amounts in the grand scheme of things. The UK is not going to be a “defence industrial superpower” any time soon if budget announcements are this small, and increases so modest.

    Promise to disabled people in tatters

    William E. Donald, Associate Professor of Sustainable Careers and Human Resource Management, University of Southampton

    In November, social security and disability minister Sir Stephen Timms spoke passionately at the Shaw Trust Disability Power 100 awards, vowing to undo past injustices and declaring: “We now want to put that right.” As a disabled person, I cheered. That promise now lies in ruins.

    Despite government claims there will be no return to austerity, sick and disabled people face a real-terms cut to their incomes and the criteria for claiming personal independence payment (Pip) will become stricter than ever. This isn’t just a policy to save £5 billion, it’s cruelty and a devastating attack on disabled people.

    Pip isn’t means-tested and is paid regardless of whether you work. It exists because, according to disability charity Scope, disabled households need an additional £1,010 a month to achieve the same standard of living as others. Stripping this support away while NHS mental health waiting lists grow, energy and food prices rise, and the disability pay gap sits at 12.7% won’t push people into work. It will push them into crisis.

    Last year, Labour promised to break barriers for disabled people. Instead, they are building new ones. These cuts come at the expense of society’s most vulnerable. The consequences will be catastrophic.

    Building a future?
    Ian Dyball/Shutterstock

    Social housing boost – but homes could be improved now

    Nicky Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Operations Management, Leeds University Business School, and Simon Williams, Associate Faculty, Leeds University Business School

    The chancellor’s £2 billion investment in new homes will certainly help to increase the availability of affordable social housing. Everyone agrees that access to decent, affordable homes is important, but the quality and maintenance of existing social houses remains critical. Replacing cladding, for example, is stubbornly challenging.

    But beyond just building more social housing, our research has explored key measures of tenant satisfaction. The potential ways for digital tools such as AI to improve the efficiency of tasks like repairs and maintenance in future are numerous.

    But social housing’s tenant demographic includes many people who are more vulnerable, some of whom prefer not to – or simply cannot – engage with digital services. This means that sustaining face-to-face contact with tenants is critical. Investing in tenants’ experience now could really deliver tangible benefits for some of Britain’s most vulnerable people.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Spring statement: defence spending boosted as further disability benefit cuts announced – experts react – https://theconversation.com/spring-statement-defence-spending-boosted-as-further-disability-benefit-cuts-announced-experts-react-253149

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Spring statement: defence spending boosted as further disability benefit cuts announced

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Professor in Economics, University of East London

    Not even six months on from Labour’s first budget, and the world is a much-changed place. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, already high last year, have risen further, and with them the cost of the UK’s debt, while economic growth has stalled. As such, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confronted an array of unpalatable choices – notably cutting disability benefits – to enable her to increase defence spending and stabilise the public finances. Here’s what our panel of experts made of the statement:

    Falling inflation wasn’t enough to prevent further disability cuts

    Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, Vice Dean and Professor in Economics, University of East London

    The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has halved the UK’s 2025 growth forecast to 1%, down from the previously projected 2%. This sluggish growth, coupled with increased borrowing costs, has effectively eliminated the government’s £9.9 billion “fiscal headroom” – its financial buffer – resulting in a £4.1 billion shortfall by 2029-30.

    There was some short-term relief in the latest inflation figures. These showed a slowdown in price rises in February (2.8% against 3% in January). The dip was caused by discounting of items like clothing. But given around half of businesses are considering price rises to combat tax hikes and the national living wage increase coming in April, this relief is likely to be short-lived. The OBR forecasts that inflation will climb back up to 3.2% this year.

    The government had previously set out its controversial plans for £5 billion in welfare cuts. But the OBR rejected the claim that the reforms would save that much, estimating the savings at £3.4 billion, leaving Reeves with a £1.6 billion shortfall. As such, she has had to announce additional welfare reforms.

    These include freezing the universal credit health element until 2030 and reducing it to £50 a week for new claimants. This is aimed at saving an additional £500 million by 2030 – and combined with other planned welfare reforms could affect more than 3 million people. But the standard allowance for universal credit will see an above-inflation increase from 2026-27 and the incomes of those with the most severe lifelong conditions will be protected.

    Civil service administrative budgets are also to be reduced – by 15% by 2029-30. This, along with other efficiency and productivity improvements, will lead to annual savings of £3.5 billion. These cuts will focus on areas like human resources, policy advice, and office management, rather than frontline services.

    The Civil Service could see 10,000 jobs axed.
    pxl.store/Shutterstock

    Reeves resorted to tricks and ‘efficiency savings’

    Steve Schifferes, Honorary Research Fellow, City St George’s, University of London

    Reeves has announced a series of tweaks to her spending plans to address the economic situation which has meant that she is in danger of breaking her self-imposed fiscal rules. The chancellor was at pains to say that these rules are “non-negotiable”.

    But these are unlikely to tackle the deeper problem – that in the short term she cannot rely on economic growth to square the circle of Labour’s three contradictory election pledges. These were more spending on public services, lower taxes and strict fiscal rules.

    The UK, in fact, is particularly vulnerable to the disruption of global trade that is likely to result from US president Donald Trump’s tariff wars. And the productivity gains from her long-term infrastructure plans will take years – if not a decade – to translate into higher growth.

    Like many chancellors, Reeves has resorted to various tricks – such as counting money moved to the defence budget to build tanks and aircraft as capital spending (and therefore exempt from the borrowing rules). And she has called for “efficiency savings” in the civil service and government departments that are unlikely to be realised.

    But the biggest savings are coming from deeper than expected cuts in disability payments and other welfare payments, reducing the income of more than 3 million people. This is upsetting many Labour MPs. Her big sweetener – £2 billion for social housing next year – is actually less than that already allocated by the previous Conservative government.

    Crucially, the further savings likely to be demanded in the spending review (announced on June 11) from unprotected departments including local government, justice and environment, will certainly look a lot like a return to austerity.

    In the end – and possibly as soon as the autumn budget – the chancellor will have to accept that as well as spending cuts, she will have to consider tax increases and possibly even a revision of the fiscal rules.

    Otherwise, she will remain at the mercy of the markets and the forecasters. Any long-term strategy will be strangled by the need to continually adjust policy to meet the fiscal “headroom” target she has set which leaves little room for manoeuvre. This requires an implausibly accurate prediction of the state of the economy in five years’ time by the OBR.

    More reaction to follow shortly.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Spring statement: defence spending boosted as further disability benefit cuts announced – https://theconversation.com/spring-statement-defence-spending-boosted-as-further-disability-benefit-cuts-announced-253149

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When Canadian snowbirds don’t flock south, the costs are more than financial

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Valorie A. Crooks, Professor, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University

    Every winter, hundreds of thousands of older Canadians spend the winter in the United States. But in recent weeks, we’ve seen many Canadian snowbirds shifting their attention to other matters.

    First, stories started to emerge from those who said they would no longer participate in this seasonal migration because of political events in the U.S. Another related concern was the weakened Canadian dollar. This trend has prompted some to consider selling their winter properties in the U.S.

    More recently, attention has shifted to the potential for changed border rules to lessen snowbirds’ access to the U.S. for long stays. Snowbirds are concerned about administrative and procedural requirements that may ultimately make cross-border travel less convenient.

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, some Canadian snowbirds experienced challenges crossing into the U.S. for the winter or returning to Canada. Closures of borders to non-essential travel did not dissuade some from planning to winter in the U.S.

    Drawing on research in snowbird communities, we found out that affordability and ease of movement are two important enablers of long-stay seasonal travel.

    Because of this, it’s not surprising that we’re hearing from snowbirds again in light of recent developments.

    CBC News reports on Québec snowbirds reaction to the Donald Trump administration’s new measures for travellers to the U.S.

    Economic and political disruptions

    While COVID-era travel disruptions didn’t stop some snowbirds from going south for the winter, the current economic and political disruptions are another story. Florida is a popular destination for Canadian snowbirds. In fact, a 2023 survey named eight of the 10 best American destination communities as being in Florida.

    If Canadian snowbirds are talking about cancelling travel plans and selling properties, people in Florida should be paying attention.

    Instead, in early March, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis downplayed what it would mean for Canadians to avoid travel to the state. Citing a recent tourism industry report, he noted that only 3.3 million of the 142.9 million visitors to Florida in 2024 were from Canada.

    DeSantis went on to say “that’s not much of a boycott, in my book.” But 91.5 per cent of Florida’s annual visitors were from the U.S. This means that the 2.3 per cent of visitors who were Canadian were actually a substantial portion of the states’s international visitors.

    DeSantis’s recent comments were also not in line with concerns raised during the COVID-19 pandemic that signalled substantial negative economic impacts for the state if Canadian snowbirds did not arrive for the winter.

    Community members

    Aside from these economic impacts, something we’ve learned through our years of research with Canadians who winter in the U.S. is that many become vital members of destination communities. From participating in public health outreach programs to volunteering at local hospitals, our research has shown that many embrace opportunities to be active in the places they reside for the winter.

    Any drop in the numbers of seasonal travellers going to U.S. destinations will have social costs for communities beyond the quantifiable economic losses.

    Many popular U.S. destination communities for snowbirds have health systems that are designed to expand and retract with dramatically different seasonal populations. Our research has observed this most closely in Yuma, Ariz., where entire areas of the main local hospital are closed in the summer and staffed seasonally in the winter.

    Additionally, some of the seasonal nursing staff who arrive for the winter are from Canada. Any retreat from these destinations by Canadian snowbirds may have significant implications for health systems and allied sectors. This can ultimately impact the quality of care they can provide to a more limited local patient base.

    Intangible impacts

    While the economic impacts of the seeming loss of long-stay older Canadians in these communities are important to consider, there will be other — less measurable but no less important — impacts. Just as the long friendship between the U.S. and Canada is now being tested, blended snowbird communities of older North Americans are at risk of diminishing.

    Business owners in U.S. destinations spoke up about losses when fewer Canadian snowbirds went south during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some Canadian business sectors and communities discovered opportunities emerging from these shifts in consumer’ movements.

    As snowbirds debate whether to navigate new border complexities and return to the U.S. next winter, we must be attentive to the stories behind the numbers to understand the true impacts of their decisions. And as comments made by DeSantis and other politicians have made clear, Canadian snowbirds are now faced with new economic and emotional considerations.

    Valorie A. receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, BC Women’s Health Research Institute and MITACS.

    Jeremy Snyder receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. When Canadian snowbirds don’t flock south, the costs are more than financial – https://theconversation.com/when-canadian-snowbirds-dont-flock-south-the-costs-are-more-than-financial-252125

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: More than just an animal: Losing a pet deserves more attention and compassion

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Renata Roma, Postdoctoral fellow, Center of Behavioural Sciences and Justice Studies/Pawsitive Connections Lab, University of Saskatchewan

    Losing a pet can be an isolating experience and perceptions of judgment may exacerbate the pain of loss. (Shutterstock)

    When my dog passed away four years ago, coping with the loss was challenging. I know I am not alone. People turn to their pets when they need comfort and a non-judgmental presence. However, pets have a short life span, and losing a companion animal is a common experience.

    Research shows that losing a pet can be as devastating as losing a family member, yet the grief over a companion animal is often overlooked in society. As a result, losing a pet can be an isolating experience.

    Perceptions of judgment may exacerbate the pain of loss, affect mental health and lead to social isolation. Some may think: “It’s just an animal.” However, words like these dismiss the pain and make an already difficult experience even lonelier.

    As a researcher who has studied the human-animal bond for more than a decade, and as someone who has shared her life with pets, I understand that while having a pet is deeply fulfilling, the grieving process can be profoundly difficult.

    Having support makes a huge difference in these moments. Rituals, comforting words, the space to talk about what happened, and primarily, validation — these things help us process loss. But the reality is that when someone loses a pet, finding that support is harder.

    Offering non-judgmental support and developing inclusive strategies, such as pet bereavement leave, can be valuable initiatives to help. Raising awareness of ways to provide effective and compassionate support to those grieving a pet can help us challenge the idea that the loss of a companion animal is less significant than losing a beloved human.

    People turn to their pets when they need comfort and a non-judgmental presence. However, pets have a short life span, and losing a companion animal is a common experience.
    (Shutterstock)

    Navigating pet loss

    Several studies show that living with a pet can have a positive impact on people’s physical, psychological and social health. These bonds run deep, and 95 per cent of Canadians consider their companion animals family.

    The journey through pet loss is unique for each individual, but it usually involves complex feelings like relief and guilt, besides physical and intellectual symptoms like aches, headache and rumination.

    One of the most important barriers to finding support is the lack of social recognition and validation regarding pet grief. People often feel judged when they express their feelings of grief over a pet. These perceptions of judgment exacerbate the pain and increase social isolation. This, in turn, can increase the risk of mental health issues, particularly among those with a history of childhood trauma.

    Factors shaping pet grief

    Several factors can shape how people grieve, including the way people lose their pets. Even when a pet dies by natural causes or old age, people may experience intense feelings of loss. Situations involving euthanasia can lead to uncertainty regarding the best moment to do it and self-blame. When a pet dies, people may feel guilty and left with a feeling that they failed to care for the pet.

    Attachment styles also play a role. This refers to the type of bond between people and their pets and the feelings involved in this relationship. For instance, perceiving pets as good friends leads to less intense grief than seeing them as children. If the person lived alone and the pet was their only company, it may be more challenging, too.

    At the same time, having social support provides a sense of belonging. Those who have room to voice their feelings and share their pain tend to navigate the stages of grief better. A more compassionate and pet-inclusive approach can be valuable in the pet grief journey. This type of support can help to prevent depression, stress and social isolation.

    One of the most important barriers to finding support is the lack of social recognition and validation regarding pet grief.
    (Shutterstock)

    Support in workplaces

    Regardless of differences in pet attachment and how a person lost their pet, initiatives to increase social support during these difficult experiences can have a significant impact on people’s ability to cope.

    Take workplaces, for instance. People are often expected to show up and function as if nothing happened, carrying their grief in silence. However, some companies have adjusted their policies to a more pet-inclusive approach, and the result is promising.

    Companies that offer more pet-inclusive policies, including pet bereavement leave, can help reduce employee stress while also increasing job satisfaction, building a sense of connectedness and leading to higher retention rates.

    Considering that among younger people, there is a preference for pets over kids, this type of policy can not only offers a concrete demonstration of empathy but could also attract some employees and increase productivity. By providing the necessary time to heal, the company can have more loyal and productive employees.

    As pets increasingly become integral to our emotional lives, acknowledging the relevance of this relationship is fundamental. This includes providing support for people facing the difficult experience of losing a pet after a life of sharing daily moments with them.

    Each person’s grief is personal and should be respected, without comparison or judgment. We cannot take away each other’s grief but we can stand beside one another in it. That, in itself, makes all the difference.

    Validation and emotional support from family and friends and pet-inclusive policies such as pet bereavement leave can also make a real difference. They send a powerful message: We care about your pain. You are not alone.

    Renata Roma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. More than just an animal: Losing a pet deserves more attention and compassion – https://theconversation.com/more-than-just-an-animal-losing-a-pet-deserves-more-attention-and-compassion-251889

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s push for AI deregulation could put financial markets at risk

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sana Ramzan, Assistant Professor in Business, University Canada West

    As Canada moves toward stronger AI regulation with the proposed Artificial Intelligence and Data Act (AIDA), its southern neighbour appears to be taking the opposite approach.

    AIDA, part of Bill C-27, aims to establish a regulatory framework to improve AI transparency, accountability and oversight in Canada, although some experts have argued it doesn’t go far enough.

    Meanwhile, United States President Donald Trump’s is pushing for AI deregulation. In January, Trump signed an executive order aimed at eliminating any perceived regulatory barriers to “American AI innovation.” The executive order replaced former president Joe Biden’s prior executive order on AI.



    Read more:
    How the US threw out any concerns about AI safety within days of Donald Trump coming to office

    Notably, the U.S. was also one of two countries — along with the U.K. — that didn’t sign a global declaration in February to ensure AI is “open, inclusive, transparent, ethical, safe, secure and trustworthy.”

    Eliminating AI safeguards leaves financial institutions vulnerable. This vulnerability can increase uncertainty and, in a worst-case scenario, increase the risk of systemic collapse.



    Read more:
    The Paris summit marks a tipping point on AI’s safety and sustainability

    The power of AI in financial markets

    AI’s potential in financial markets is undeniable. It can improve operational efficiency, perform real-time risk assessments, generate higher income and forecast predictive economic change.

    My research has found that AI-driven machine learning models not only outperform conventional approaches in identifying financial statement fraud, but also in detecting abnormalities quickly and effectively. In other words, AI can catch signs of financial mismanagement before they spiral into a disaster.

    In another study, my co-researcher and I found that AI models like artificial neural networks and classification and regression trees can predict financial distress with remarkable accuracy.

    Artificial neural networks are brain-inspired algorithms. Similar to how our brain sends messages through neurons to perform actions, these neural networks process information through layers of interconnected “artificial neurons,” learning patterns from data to make predictions.

    Similarly, classification and regression trees are decision-making models that divide data into branches based on important features to identify outcomes.

    Our artificial neural networks models predicted financial distress among Toronto Stock Exchange-listed companies with a staggering 98 per cent accuracy. This suggests suggests AI’s immense potential in providing early warning signals that could help avert financial downturns before they start.

    However, while AI can simplify manual processes and lower financial risks, it can also introduce vulnerabilities that, if left unchecked, could pose significant threats to economic stability.

    The risks of deregulation

    Trump’s push for deregulation could result in Wall Street and other major financial institutions gaining significant power over AI-driven decision-making tools with little to no oversight.

    When profit-driven AI models operate without the appropriate ethical boundaries, the consequences could be severe. Unchecked algorithms, especially in credit evaluation and trading, could worsen economic inequality and generate systematic financial risks that traditional regulatory frameworks cannot detect.

    Algorithms trained on biased or incomplete data may reinforce discriminatory lending practices. In lending, for instance, biased AI algorithms can deny loans to marginalized groups, widening wealth and inequality gaps.

    In addition, AI-powered trading bots, which are capable of executing rapid transactions, could trigger flash crashes in seconds, disrupting financial markets before regulators have time to respond. The flash crash of 2010 is a prime example where high-frequency trading algorithms aggressively reacted to market signals causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop by 998.5 points in a matter of minutes.

    Furthermore, unregulated AI-driven risk models might overlook economic warning signals, resulting in substantial errors in monetary control and fiscal policy.

    Striking a balance between innovation and safety depends on the ability for regulators and policymakers to reduce AI hazards. While considering financial crisis of 2008, many risk models — earlier forms of AI — were wrong to anticipate a national housing market crash, which led regulators and financial institutions astray and exacerbated the crisis.

    A blueprint for financial stability

    My research underscores the importance of integrating machine learning methods within strong regulatory systems to improve financial oversight, fraud detection and prevention.

    Durable and reasonable regulatory frameworks are required to turn AI from a potential disruptor into a stabilizing force. By implementing policies that prioritize transparency and accountability, policymakers can maximize the advantages of AI while lowering the risks associated with it.

    A federally regulated AI oversight body in the U.S. could serve as an arbitrator, just like Canada’s Digital Charter Implementation Act of 2022 proposes the establishment of an AI and Data Commissioner. Operating with checks and balances inherent to democratic structures would ensure fairness in financial algorithms and stop biased lending policies and concealed market manipulation.

    Financial institutions would be required to open the “black box” of AI-driven alternatives by mandating transparency through explainable AI standards — guidelines that are aimed at making AI systems’ outputs more understandable and transparent to humans.

    Machine learning’s predictive capabilities could help regulators identify financial crises in real-time using early warning signs — similar to the model developed by my co-researcher and me in our study.

    However, this vision doesn’t end at national borders. Globally, the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board could establish AI ethical standards to curb cross-border financial misconduct.

    Crisis prevention or catalyst?

    Will AI still be the key to foresee and stop the next economic crisis, or will the lack of regulatory oversight cause a financial disaster? As financial institutions continue adopt AI-driven models, the absence of strong regulatory guardrails raises pressing concerns.

    Without proper safeguards in place, AI is not just a tool for economic prediction — it could become an unpredictable force capable of accelerating the next financial crisis.

    The stakes are high. Policymakers must act swiftly to regulate the increasing impact of AI before deregulation opens the path for an economic disaster.

    Without decisive action, the rapid adoption of AI in finance could outpace regulatory efforts, leaving economies vulnerable to unforeseen risks and potentially setting the stage for another global financial crisis.

    Sana Ramzan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s push for AI deregulation could put financial markets at risk – https://theconversation.com/trumps-push-for-ai-deregulation-could-put-financial-markets-at-risk-251208

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s purported ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiating skills aren’t likely to end the Russia-Ukraine war

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Anton Oleinik, Professor of Sociology, Memorial University of Newfoundland

    The White House says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserting the truce was effective immediately while also accusing Russia of lying about the deal’s terms.

    Needless to say, it’s far from clear that United States President Donald Trump’s supposed “Art of the Deal” negotiating skills are enough to broker sustainable peace between Russia and Ukraine given the protagonists’ unwillingness to make concessions and the volatile nature of attempts to broker a peace agreement.

    The war waged by Russia has reached the stage where both Russian and Ukrainian officials fear losing face if they make concessions.

    Both view their enemy as an existential threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin has argued Russian defeat would spell “the end of the 1,000-year history of the Russian state,” while Zelenskyy says Russia’s protracted assault is an overt existential threat and the absence of U.S. support threatens the very survival of his country.

    Both sides have seemed prepared to fight until the bitter end. The involvement of a mediator in the form of the United States, therefore, could potentially change the deadly dynamics of the conflict.

    ‘Love to beat them’

    Trump declares being up to this formidable task. He positions himself as a mediator occupying a middle ground between the protagonists, unlike his predecessor in the Oval Office who supported Ukraine.

    In his ghost-written book The Art of the Deal, Trump claimed to enjoy these sorts of challenges:

    “In New York real estate… you are dealing with some of the sharpest, toughest, and most vicious people in the world… I happen to love to go up against these guys, and I love to beat them.”

    But if mediators, including Trump, are to successfully persuade opposing sides to make a deal, they need to properly understand each side’s motives. To what extent is each side malleable so some common ground can be found? Making a deal always requires compromises and concessions.

    Trump is well aware of this, saying recently of any prospective Russia-Ukraine agreement: “You’re going to have to always make compromises. You can’t do any deals without compromises.”

    Understanding motivations

    David McClelland’s theory of human motivation may be relevant in terms of attempts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia. The social psychologist argued that three motives — the need for achievement, the need for affiliation and the need for power — explains most human behaviour:

    1. The need for achievement explains the desire to be productive and get results;
    2. Concern about establishing, maintaining or restoring a positive relationship with another person or people underpins the need for affiliation;
    3. The will to dominate, to have an impact on another person or people, is the essence of the need for power.

    McClelland predicted that when the need for power significantly exceeds the need for affiliation, conflicts and wars are likely. He viewed a high “power-minus-affiliation” gap as indicative of what he called the “imperial power motive syndrome.”



    Read more:
    Too much power can do very odd things to a leader’s head

    The metaphor of an empire lies at its origin. The empire’s declared mission is to enlighten, civilize and bring order to its subjects. Leaders with the imperial power motive syndrome show reformist zeal to save others, whether they like it or not.

    The social psychologist Robert Hogenraad subsequently adapted McClelland’s theory for computer-assisted content analysis by developing dictionaries of the three needs.

    If the words associated with the need for power — control, domination, victory, for example — occur more often in a text, speech or news reports than words associated with the need for affiliation — like love, family, friends — then the speaker has the imperial power motive syndrome.

    Hawks vs. doves

    My recently published analysis of war-related speeches delivered by Russian, Ukrainian, American, British and French leaders during the three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine gives some clues about the motivations of the parties involved.

    Compared with their western counterparts, Putin and Zelenskyy exhibit the strongest imperial power motive syndrome and are “hawks.” Their need for power, as expressed through their public speeches, significantly exceeds their need for affiliation. Trump, however, appears similar to that of his arch-rival, former president Joe Biden. Both are closer to the “dovish” end of the scale.

    The preliminary outcomes of talks on a potential ceasefire reveal the challenges faced by mediators.

    First, the talks being held in Saudi Arabia were bilateral, with American officials meeting separately with Russian and Ukrainian delegations, as opposed to trilteral.

    Second, no joint statement followed the talks, although it was widely expected.

    Third, the White House issued two separate statements, one on talks with Ukraine’s representatives and the other on discussions with Russia’s representatives.

    The Ukraine statement includes the commitment to continue the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, whereas the statement on the talks with Russia does not mention any of this.

    This is despite the fact that the International Criminal Court has accused Putin of committing war crimes via the unlawful deportation of children.

    Trump’s antipathy toward Zelenskyy

    The prospects of a peace agreement is further complicated by the history of Trump’s attempts to broker deals in Ukraine.

    The war in Ukraine actually began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and a proxy war in Donbas. Trump was elected president two years later.

    His discourse about Ukraine did not differ significantly from Obama’s and Biden’s until his first impeachment in 2020 for soliciting “the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, to benefit his re-election.”

    His call to Zelenskyy in July 2019 triggered the impeachment. He pushed for two investigations aimed at helping his re-election bid — one into Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine and another into the hack of Democratic National Committee servers in 2016 — in exchange for releasing about $400 million of military assistance already approved by Congress and inviting Zelenskyy to the White House at that time.

    During and after the first impeachment, Trump’s language on Ukraine significantly diverged from Obama’s and Biden’s. He began using words like “corruption,” “lies” and “hoax” in relation to Ukraine.

    Moving forward

    All this suggests that Trump’s first impeachment has had a lasting impact on his perception of Ukraine and its leader.

    And so in addition to dealing with two protagonists who are unwilling to make concessions, Trump as a mediator faces challenges related to his past.

    One protagonist, Zelenskyy, may unwittingly remind him of one of the darkest moments in his political career — his first impeachment. This fact should be kept in mind when trying to make sense of the treatment received by Zelenskyy during his most recent visit to the White House and Trump’s references to him as a “dictator.”

    To truly succeed in mediation, Trump must move forward, leaving biases and prejudices related to Ukraine and its leader in the past. But can he?

    Anton Oleinik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s purported ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiating skills aren’t likely to end the Russia-Ukraine war – https://theconversation.com/trumps-purported-art-of-the-deal-negotiating-skills-arent-likely-to-end-the-russia-ukraine-war-252666

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: To address the environmental polycrisis, the first step is to demand more honesty

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mike Berners-Lee, Professor of Sustainability, Lancaster University

    Minerva Studio/Shutterstock

    Climate breakdown is major threat to life as we know it, but it is just one element of a much wider environmental polycrisis that includes biodiversity loss, energy and pollution, food security, population growth and disease outbreaks. That can feel overwhelming and make people feel helpless, especially when we see that global emissions are higher than ever – even after three decades of UN climate summits.

    The good news is that, despite our failure so far, it is possible for us to do better. And the sticking point has not been lack of technology. To look for the point of maximum leverage that all of us can have, we need to look deeply into the reasons behind our frustrating lack of progress to date.

    In my new book, A Climate of Truth, I argue that society radically needs to become more honest. In politics, media and business. The worst failure in our attempts to tackle the world’s environmental and societal problems have deceit at their core.

    By holding power to account, insisting on transparency and shining a light on any greenwash, we can start to build the conditions under which the quality of decision-making and action that we so desperately need can become possible at last.

    Dishonesty, to be clear, isn’t just about clearcut lies. These are just the tip of the iceberg. Just as dangerous are such techniques as subtle twists, misdirections of attention, biased selection of evidence, using loopholes and failing to call out deceitful colleagues.

    Bullshit, as defined by American professor of philosophy Harry Frankfurt, is a blend of fact and fiction concocted to persuade. The craft of misleading the public has been refined over decades by corporate interests, advertising executives, media moguls and the worst politicians for their own financial gain, social standing or power.

    Many people in the west have become careless in their requirement for this basic standard from their leaders. We have allowed a growing a false narrative, propagated by the most dishonest among us, that lies are a normal and inevitable part of everyday life. And the results of our post-truth experiment are now starting to come in, with, sadly, plenty more consequences yet to come.

    It is now high time not just for a reset on honesty, but to raise the bar beyond anything the global community has ever known. Why do we need a higher standard than ever? Because deceit throws a spanner into any decision-making process and our complex, urgent polycrisis demands the highest quality, wisest decision-making that we can possibly attain.

    How can we achieve a culture of basic honesty when that very complexity makes deceit easier than ever? The answer is to create a high enough price for being caught. We need to treat deliberate deception as a form of abuse.

    Just one incident tells us that a politician does not have our best interests at heart and is unfit for office – although we might have to vote for the least un-fit politician to gradually raise the bar – plus that their colleagues who stayed quiet in the knowledge of their deceit are also unfit for office. The same goes for businesses and media. This is something we can collectively and consistently insist upon.

    The push for integrity

    In practice, the starting point is to ask the most careful and discerning questions that we can. We need to look at the track record of people, and the ownership and track records of media empires and companies.

    We need to switch wherever we can to the most honest alternatives. We can achieve that by disowning unfit politicians, starving out bad media, supporting the best media that we find, and spending our money on companies that act with integrity for a better world. We need to challenge those around us who are not so discerning and initiate conversations with friends, relatives and colleagues to encourage the quest for more truthful leadership.

    These actions are so simple yet so important because we cannot even begin to make progress without raising this standard. Whichever aspect of environmental or social change you care about most, this is your point of maximum leverage – and your route to maximum agency.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Mike Berners-Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. To address the environmental polycrisis, the first step is to demand more honesty – https://theconversation.com/to-address-the-environmental-polycrisis-the-first-step-is-to-demand-more-honesty-251742

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Blaming absent dads for the crisis of masculinity is too simplistic – many men want to be more involved

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Tarrant, Professor of Sociology, University of Lincoln

    imtmphoto/Shutterstock

    Fatherlessness and a lack of male role models are often cited as causes of an apparent crisis of masculinity among boys. This is not new. These arguments have been made for nearly half a century, both in the UK and the US, as the root of a multitude of social issues.

    These are key ideas in the Lost Boys report from thinktank the Centre for Social Justice, cited recently by Gareth Southgate in his Richard Dimbleby lecture on the issues facing boys. In this report, concerns about fatherlessness and a lack of male role models for boys in their homes and schools loom large as part of an explanation about why boys today are “lost” and struggling.

    I am a researcher who works with boys and fathers, especially with those in low-income communities. I have long feared that these explanations fall short. In the report, boys are presented as passive victims of inequalities. Men, as fathers and educators, are considered to be to blame when they are deemed absent, or seen as a way to solve the societal ills that influence and shape the nation’s boys.

    But simply asking fathers to step up and do better isn’t enough. In my research with men as caregivers, including young fathers aged 25 and under, I’ve found they want to be involved in their children’s lives but face numerous challenges that can make this more difficult.

    Whether struggling to secure qualifications and find employment or family-suitable housing that is near to or safe for their children, they come up against serious barriers to support with their parenting.

    The UK remains woefully ill-equipped to support fathers to be involved and present in the lives of their children. Not only do we have among the worst parental leave offers in Europe, but family and public health services do not routinely engage with fathers as effectively as they should.

    Diverse family life

    Lost Boys also presents a bleak picture of family life in Britain. It highlights what is referred to, rather sensationally, as an epidemic of family breakdown.

    The report notes there are “just shy of half of young Britons growing up with only one biological parent … with close to nine out of ten of these being single mothers”. If absent fathers are the problem, then this concern over fatherlessness also presents single mothers bringing up boys as lacking.



    Read more:
    Having a single parent doesn’t determine your life chances – the data shows poverty is far more important

    Further, in the emphasis on the absence of biological fathers from households, it is assumed that the diverse ways we now live family life are also a problem. This obscures the very meaningful family connections that are forged through co-habiting, step-parenting, single-sex parenting and other forms of care – which men also engage in.

    Including fathers

    Working-class communities often bear the brunt of concerns about a gender crisis. Men in these communities, through labels like feckless and absent dads, are portrayed as failing fathers. This often happens despite limited engagement with them to understand their experiences.

    Fathers may face barriers, such as access to nearby work and housing, that prevent them from spending as much time with their children as they want.
    Alex Linch/Shutterstock

    My research with boys and fathers over the last decade has shown there are greater benefits when fathers are directly involved in addressing the systemic challenges shaping their parenting experiences. We have therefore involved fathers in creating dads’ groups and online parenting support, where they challenge negative views and advocate for progressive societal support for boys and men.

    Shifting away from the concept of “fatherless families”, this work promotes the idea of creating societies that are father-inclusive and better at supporting men as fathers. This might be by advocating for increased time to bond with their children through well-funded and affordable parental leave, or through more effective public health and community-based support for fathers through pregnancy and parenthood.

    Focusing on including fathers means we can explore ways that societies can better support men to be involved in caregiving – and role modelling.

    To do this requires collective and collaborative efforts. Building partnerships and fostering dialogues across diverse sectors including education, health, social services, local government and charities – as well as with parents and communities – we are better able to respond to the complexities of the issues boys and men navigate. My work demonstrates the value of developing systemic solutions that are rooted in lived experience and professional insight.

    The issues boys and men navigate are diverse, messy and reflective of the complex machinery of our social world. They’re linked to socioeconomic inequalities, geography and social history.

    Meaningfully addressing the problems boys and young men encounter that play out in our homes, schools and online means broadening the scope of change beyond individuals and families. It means creating the social conditions for happier, healthier journeys into and through adulthood and fatherhood.

    Anna Tarrant receives funding from UK Research & Innovation.

    – ref. Blaming absent dads for the crisis of masculinity is too simplistic – many men want to be more involved – https://theconversation.com/blaming-absent-dads-for-the-crisis-of-masculinity-is-too-simplistic-many-men-want-to-be-more-involved-252408

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How scratching monkeys can help us understand emotions and consciousness

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Bonaventura Majolo, Professor of Social Evolution, University of Lincoln

    A recent study tested Japanese macaque self scratching Tathoms/Shutterstock

    Scientists Sakumi Iki and Ikuma Adachi recently spent a lot of time watching monkeys scratch themselves.

    Self-scratching among non-human primates is known to indicate social tension and anxiety. The two researchers from Kyoto University, Japan, wanted to use this link to work out whether being anxious (and so scratching a lot) made their monkey subjects more pessimistic, or whether their pessimism was what drove their anxiety (and their scratching).

    Their findings suggest the former is true, as the primates were more likely to make a pessimistic choice if they had scratched their body. This not only provides evidence for an important theory about how physiological changes are linked to emotional states, but also shows that monkeys’ body language can reveal some interesting cues about how animal consciousness may differ from that of humans.

    Several studies have previously shown that self-scratching in primates is linked to social tension and emotional state. For instance, a 1991 study found monkeys who were given an anxiety relief drug seemed to scratch themselves less, whereas monkeys who received an anxiety-inducing drug increased self-scratching.

    Research has also shown subordinate capuchin monkeys self-scratch more when they are approached by a dominant individual, perhaps due to the increased risk of aggression. Japanese macaques with a high tendency to scratch themselves are less likely to make peace after a conflict with their group companions.

    Researchers of animal and human behaviour often use self-scratching as a measure of short-term changes in anxiety, social tension and emotional state. Self-scratching is also linked to social tension in humans: people often scratch more during a short period of high anxiety.

    Self-scratching is an example of what behavioural scientists call displacement behaviour, which includes yawning, lip-biting, fumbling and face-touching.

    Research has shown it can also allow us to better cope with anxiety. For example in 2012, UK researchers asked participants to do difficult (and in some cases unsolvable) arithmetic calculations in front of an audience, and found that participants who displayed higher rates of self-scratching during the test also reported a lower level of anxiety after the test.

    Japanese macaques are well known for bathing in hot springs.
    mapman/Shutterstock

    The researchers at Kyoto University found that macaques seem to have a different relationship to displacement behaviour than humans.

    Iki and Adachi worked with six adult Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata). They used videos of a macaque scratching themselves to induce self-scratching in their study subjects, since this behaviour is contagious, similar to yawning.

    They trained the monkeys to choose between different options on a greyscale touchscreen. The darker the shade of grey, the more likely the monkeys were to get a food reward.

    When they chose the lightest shade of grey, the touchscreen temporarily blanked out. The darkest shade of grey always rewarded the monkeys with food and the three shades in the middle had inconsistent outcomes.

    These stimuli tested whether the monkeys were biased towards optimism or pessimism. The monkeys who self-scratched were more likely to be pessimistic about the outcome of the inconsistent stimuli. The researchers measured pessimism in terms of reaction time.

    The longer it took a monkey to choose the ambiguous shades, the more pessimistic the researchers believed the monkeys to be. Monkeys didn’t seem to hesitate if they didn’t scratch. The researchers argue that scratching was a sign the monkeys were anxious and being anxious made the monkeys more pessimistic about the future.

    Their study was one of the first to test what’s known as the James-Lange theory in non-human animals. The theory argues there is a sequential connection between behavioural and physiological components of emotions and our experience of these emotions. According to this idea, behavioural and physiological responses happen first. This means, for example, that having an irregular heartbeat would make us anxious.

    The new results support the James–Lange theory. Negative emotions (measured by self-scratching) induce pessimism, and not vice-versa. The areas of the brain linked to basic emotions, such as fear, are similar in mammals. However, it is unclear whether the way we experience these emotions is comparable to other species.

    For example, two human subjects who have similar physiological responses in relation to anxiety may perceive it differently. One subject may be OK with anxiety, another subject may struggle to handle such situation. We know non-human primates have individual responses to anxiety, but we don’t fully know why and we can’t ask them.

    This study highlights interesting similarities, but also differences between humans and other species. A possible difference is related to consciousness. Humans have a conscious experience of their bodily responses which affects how we respond to them.

    An irregular heartbeat can make us anxious. This isn’t just because it causes a physiological response that induces stress, but also since we know that something is wrong when we feel that our heartbeat is irregular, which can make us even more anxious.

    I say this is “possibly” a difference because some researchers argue that other animals, like chimpanzees or elephants, may have some form of consciousness.

    Humans, unlike the Japanese macaques of this study, can also have the opposite temporal pattern predicted by the James-Lange theory. If I know that I have an exam tomorrow, this thought may make my heartbeat become irregular.

    The short-term link between emotional responses and the perception of these responses could be shared by many primates (the group of animals that include humans, other apes, monkeys and lemurs) and other mammals too. But research is yet to demonstrate this conclusively.

    Research like the one by Iki and Adachi demonstrates the importance of studying a wide range of species, and not just the ones closest to humans, such as chimpanzees and bonobos, to better understand what factors shape behavioural and cognitive skills in the animal kingdom.

    Bonaventura Majolo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How scratching monkeys can help us understand emotions and consciousness – https://theconversation.com/how-scratching-monkeys-can-help-us-understand-emotions-and-consciousness-250694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why your medical condition might be named after a food

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    “Strawberry nose” can refer to a skin disorder called rhinophyma or large pores or blackheads on the nose Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock

    From watermelon stomach to chocolate cysts, you might wonder why doctors decided to name some ailments after foods – after all, it’s enough to put you off your dinner.

    When early physicians and surgeons were studying the body to understand normal function or disease, they lacked modern microscopic and molecular imaging and diagnostic techniques. Instead, they had to rely on basic observational skills and often used easily recognised descriptors to explain the appearance of organs and diseases.

    Food, then, became a convenient way to communicate the appearance of the body – in health and in sickness. This practice is known as eponymophilia and it continues today, particularly in pathology – the study of disease.

    There are lots of eponyms to describe the female reproductive system. Many healthcare workers describe healthy ovaries, for instance, as almond shape and size, while the shape of a typical uterus is often likened to an upside-down pear.

    Different shapes can be down to normal anatomical variation but can also be a sign of disease. Knowing these shapes and sizes allows for rapid identification during imaging assessments or medical examinations.

    Following childbirth and the cutting of the umbilical cord, the mother must deliver the afterbirth. According to 16th century anatomist, Matteo Realdo Colombo, the afterbirth looked like a “flat-cake”, and so he named it “placenta”, which comes from the Latin word for a type of cake.



    Read more:
    How a 16th century Italian anatomist came up with the word ‘placenta’: it reminded him of a cake

    Doctors examine the placenta carefully post-delivery to make sure none is left inside the mother – a condition known as retained placenta – which happens in 0.1-3% of births. Retained placenta can cause post-partum haemorrhage and and even the death of the mother, so checking the placenta looks like a “flat-cake” can save lives.

    While some eponyms, like the flat-cake placenta, seem straightforward, others can seem rather unkind. Take the common descriptions of Cushing’s syndrome for instance.

    People with Cushing’s often have a larger than average abdomen and lean legs, known as “lemon on matchstick” and can develop a “moon face” and a “buffalo hump”.

    Cushing’s disease is caused by long-term exposure to high levels of cortisol, a hormone the body makes to regulate its response to stress. It can develop naturally from tumours forming in the adrenal or pituitary glands, which produce cortisol.

    More commonly, however, it’s caused by some medicines, such as steroids – which contain a synthetic version of cortisol.

    Some eponyms can also function as euphemisms – making a serious, even threatening condition sound less worrying. Take “milky leg syndrome” or “milk leg”, for instance – deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the iliac veins in the pelvis or the femoral veins at the top of your legs.

    The blockage prevents venous drainage – when veins drain deoxygenated blood and return it to the heart – from the legs, which causes painful, pale and swollen legs.

    Research suggests that 75% of cases of milk leg occur in the left leg and men are more likely to develop the condition than women. There are a number of risk factors, including previous vein blockage, obesity and pregnancy.

    If not treated promptly, the condition can progress to phlegmasia cerulea dolens – a rare but serious complication of DVT causing fluid build-up that prevents arteries from delivering blood into the tissues – which can lead to tissue death and venous gangrene. Sadly, once venous gangrene has set in, amputation and death are common outcomes.

    While this all sounds grim, spare a thought for those who suffer from “hot potato voice”, which describes the sound of someone who has an obstruction somewhere in the upper part of their airway. This blockage prevents the person from forming sounds properly and can be caused by an abscess in or around the tonsils, or a stone lodged in the throat.

    Before I go on, it’s only fair to warn you that if you’re eating or drinking or you haven’t got the stomach for more graphic descriptions, you might not want to read any further.

    Not for the faint-hearted

    Pea soup diarrhoea is an apt description of a deeply unpleasant infection: salmonella. Salmonella – or food poisoning – is an infection with salmonella bacteria that causes diarrhoea, high temperature and stomach pains. It can be transmitted from person to person through contaminated food or water or from touching infected animals, their faeces, or their environment.

    Thankfully, most healthy people recover fully by drinking plenty of fluids and resting. Younger or older people are at greater risk of more severe illness, as are immunocompromised people, and they may be prescribed antibiotics to help them recover from the infection.

    While diarrhoea can look like pea-soup, some STIs can look like cauliflower. Yes, sexually transmitted warts caused by the human papilloma virus can have a “cauliflower-like appearance”.

    They are typically seen on the external genitalia, around the anus and may be present internally too. Certain types of cancers, such as squamous cell carcinomas, also have a cauliflower-like appearance as they develop.

    The thick, white odourless discharge that can be a symptom of thrush is often likened to cottage cheese.

    The vagina usually self-cleans by producing a white or clear discharge. The white colour is most common at the beginning or end of the menstrual cycle; however, if the consistency becomes clumpy or curd-like, this is often a sign of infection.

    Most commonly, it’s a yeast infection but could also be a sexually transmitted disease, such as chlamydia. If there is a problem, this discharge is usually associated with other symptoms such as discomfort, pain, itching or an unpleasant smell.

    While some of these descriptions may seem unpleasant, they can be helpful to identify abnormalities and medical conditions. Food eponyms can help avoid confusion so doctors know what they’re looking for during examinations or surgery.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why your medical condition might be named after a food – https://theconversation.com/why-your-medical-condition-might-be-named-after-a-food-247543

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Snow White: this opportunity to empower Disney’s first princess falls short at every turn

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura O’Flanagan, PhD Candidate, School of English, Dublin City University

    Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs was a wonder of animation and cinema when it was first released by Disney in 1937. Based on the 1812 German fairy tale by the Brothers Grimm, it tells the story of a princess whose wicked step mother is intimidated by her youthful beauty. Desperate to be the “fairest of them all” the evil queen tries to have Snow White killed. Evading death, she is forced into hiding with seven dwarves.

    It was Disney’s first animated feature-length film and a critical and commercial success. Snow White was also the first Disney princess.

    In the decades since, Disney’s pantheon of princesses has grown. Alongside newer princess, Snow White seems pretty antiquated and uninspiring. She is a passive, innocent character who doesn’t do very much but wait around for her prince with whom she travels into the sunset at the film’s conclusion. In contrast, Moana (2016) and Elsa from Frozen (2013) are strong and independent characters who develop into thoughtful and careful leaders by the end of their stories.

    So, in an age of live-action remakes of some of Disney’s most iconic films it seemed fitting to give the character who started it all an update for modern audiences. However, the production was mired in controversy before it was even released, raising questions about whether Snow White is a story that can ever really be retold in a more empowering way.

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    Changing the story to move with the times is in keeping with traditions of oral folk tales. But, controversy has followed the film since it was announced. As a result, Disney scaled back their usual red carpet premieres and it has been critically panned upon release.

    To many, the prospect of an updated, less romantically inclined Snow White was unthinkable. Some online commenters dubbed a Snow White story where the princess is not dreaming of true love “woke”.

    There was also backlash against the choice of Rachel Zegler as Snow White because of her Colombian background. The live-action Snow White isn’t the first remake to be the source of such racism. The ire echoes the hatred which accompanied 2023’s The Little Mermaid, when black actress Halle Bailey was cast as Ariel.

    There were also those who had concerns about the story, particularly the titular seven dwarves. Actor Peter Dinklage, who has a form of dwarfism, has condemned the production’s use of CGI, rather than casting dwarf actors to play Snow White’s mining companions. The story’s representation of people with dwarfism, has led some to say that the story shouldn’t be retold altogether.



    Read more:
    Why the changing representation of dwarfism in Disney’s live action Snow White remake is so important

    However, there are some aspects of the story that could have provided interesting opportunities to explore modern issues.

    For instance, it could have thoughtfully explored female ageing through the character of the evil queen. It could also, perhaps, have commented on the politics of beauty and the pressure for consumers in their teens and twenties, who have started buying beauty products at younger ages than ever before.

    Like Frozen’s tale of sisters saving each other, it could have subverted the trope of the damsel in distress saved by her prince charming. Snow White could have been a strong heroine who can overcome evil on her own terms.

    The story could have revised mistakes of the past and depicted different body types and people of different sizes and statures. It could also have portrayed consensual kisses by updating the kiss Snow White receives while asleep, turning it into a moment she chooses to participate in.

    Unfortunately, the new Snow White does not achieve any of these, or really anything much at all. The result is a dull, pointless story with poorly rendered visuals, cheap-looking costumes and lacklustre musical numbers.

    Falling short

    The 1937 film was a technical marvel and remains one of Disney’s visual masterpieces. Snow White of 2025 looks like she is gallivanting through a theme park ride as she moves through the forest, bathed in permanent evening light among computer-generated woodland creatures in her garish costume.

    The miners are introduced as 274-year-old magical creatures. Their appearance is neither human nor magical creature, landing somewhere uncanny in between. This is the crux of the film’s entire problem. The opportunity to update Snow White fails on every level because it does not go far enough.

    The story largely remains intact, with some expansion in terms of backstory and some additional characters. The evil queen remains a one-dimensional villain obsessed with beauty.

    The script plays with the word “fair”, with it taking on a confused double-meaning in the story. To the queen “fair” is beautiful, in keeping with the 1937 film, but to Snow White, “fair” means just. This is an interesting idea but it becomes muddled as the film progresses, and loses its way.

    Snow White is portrayed with an expanded backstory and is certainly given more motivation than in the 1937 film. For instance, she wants to reinstate “fairness” in the kingdom, which has been under the tyrannical rule of the evil queen since Snow White’s father’s death. But as more characters are introduced to aid Snow White on her journey, these serve as distraction and buffer, preventing her from showing any real development or growth.

    Prince Charming has been replaced by Jonathan, a Robin Hood-style bandit who condescendingly explains to Snow White why she has “princess problems”. He ultimately saves her by giving her true love’s kiss when she is under the queen’s spell. The issue of consent still swirls around this scene and underscores the question: is this an update at all?

    In the end, the queen is ultimately defeated by collective action, compared with a lightning bolt like in 1937. This is a significant development and perhaps the clearest update in the film. In 2025, the defeat of a vain autocrat by collective action is an appealing thought. Perhaps the filmmakers could have leaned into this idea, allowed Snow White to truly become one of the people and a clear democracy could have been established. But, like every other of the film’s updates, it falls short and she remains an unelected autocrat – albeit “the fairest one of all”.

    Laura O’Flanagan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Snow White: this opportunity to empower Disney’s first princess falls short at every turn – https://theconversation.com/snow-white-this-opportunity-to-empower-disneys-first-princess-falls-short-at-every-turn-253064

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Signal chat group affair: unprecedented security breach will seriously damage US international relations – expert view

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security & Dean of Faculty, University of Hull

    Plans for an attack against an enemy target are classified in America. But the private views of high-ranking officials about allies, communicated within government, must also count as intelligence to be protected.

    The recent communication of this category of information over the Signal messaging app has been dismissed by the US president, Donald Trump as a mere “glitch”. It is definitely that. But it also raises the prospect that in his first two months of office, key parts of the administration might have inadvertently been leaving sensitive information vulnerable to enemy interception. That would be one of the most serious intelligence breaches in modern history.

    National security advisor, Mike Waltz, has subsequently “taken responsibility” for the episode – but, so far at least, remains in post. Instead, the administration has decided to launch bitter ad hominem attacks against the journalist that revealed this breach of security, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg.

    Storied national security reporter: The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg.
    US Secretary of Defense

    Trump called Goldberg a “total sleazebag”, defense secretary Pete Hegseth referred to him as “deceitful and highly discredited”. Walz called him “the bottom scum of journalists”.

    The recent chat group reported exchange involved the adminstration’s most senior national security officials: Waltz, Hegseth, Vice-President J.D. Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, among others.

    As we know now, it also, accidentally, included Goldberg, himself a storied national security reporter before he took up the editorship of the Atlantic. It’s a national security blunder almost without parallel.

    Interestingly, some of the people on this chat were among those who savaged Hilary Clinton’s use of a personal email address during her time as secretary of state. This was controversial, but did not meet the standard for prosecution. Most of her work-related emails were archived into federal records by their recipients on government email. It was poor practice, and regulations were significantly tightened after.

    If an inquiry is set up about this most recent incident, it will be interesting to see whether these messages are treated as federal records. This would be signficant because the messages would need to be handed over to officials to classify and archive as part of the public record. That would certainly clear up whether this was indeed a “glitch” or whether classified information was indeed shared – something the administration still denies.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    For such an elevated group of US government officials to use a consumer messaging app to talk business invites an easy win for enemy intelligence agencies. America’s key intelligence competitors invest billions of dollars in techniques and technologies to break the toughest encryption. For phone-based communications, we know that apps such as NSO Group’s Pegasus can be used to bypass the encryption on phones.

    The Guardian newspaper’s investigative work has highlighted how journalists and activists were targeted by countries using this technology and the interception capability of capable intelligence nations is far stronger. So the standard security induction to officials would cover communications, devices and protocols.

    It is not clear whether the protocols cover the use of emojis. Waltz’s use of a fist, fire and flag emoji is certainly unusual in diplomatic cables that have been aired publicly.

    Even worse, the communication between these officials was prior to a deployment of US military assets against an enemy target, the Houthi rebels in Yemen. This potentially placed the success of the operation and those assets at risk.

    That the Yemenis did not move assets that had been targeted does not conclusively prove that the communications remained safe. It has long been a practice to pick and choose when to risk revealing that communications are being intercepted.

    Zero accountability

    An ordinary intelligence officer who communicated about highly sensitive and classified deployments through a platform with security that is not accredited or controlled by the intelligence community, would certainly face disciplinary action. An officer who accidentally invited a journalist into this chat would be likely to face even stiffer sanctions. Trump seems to have rallied around his officials, however.

    The US has recent form in vigorously pursuing journalists who publish classified materials. The Edward Snowden leaks caused considerable damage to transatlantic intelligence and Snowden was forced to take up residence in Moscow to avoid prosecution.

    The newspapers who published his papers were subject to strong action from the governments in their countries. The publication of Chelsea Manning’s leaked cables – known as Cablegate – by Julian Assange and Wikileaks resulted in a lengthy process to try and prosecute Assange (Manning herself was prosecuted and was sentenced to 35 years in jail, serving seven).

    But instead, Trump has chosen to spearhead a backlash against The Atlantic – the “messenger”. It fits in with Trump’s antipathy towards the mainstream media and his strong preference for some social media outlets. It might also signal a more serious turn towards intolerance to investigative journalism.

    Diplomatic disaster

    What the Signal messages also reveal is a contempt for European allies among Trump’s most senior people. That will be difficult to repair. Describing allies who have lost thousands of soldiers supporting American foreign policy aims as “pathetic” and “freeloaders” will make it very difficult for those governments to underplay the significance of the comments.

    What we have seen in the Signal messages might herald a new era of diplomacy and policy making, by officials who are not afraid to break established patterns. What we can definitely say is that it is radically different to the diplomacy the rest of the west is used to, and it will be nearly impossible to unsee.

    The western allies will be accelerating their plans to be less dependent on the US – and this will be to America’s detriment.

    Robert Dover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Signal chat group affair: unprecedented security breach will seriously damage US international relations – expert view – https://theconversation.com/signal-chat-group-affair-unprecedented-security-breach-will-seriously-damage-us-international-relations-expert-view-253090

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Politicians’ attacks on immigrants lack solid evidence: New data set the record straight

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Edward Koning, Associate professor, University of Guelph

    Immigration dominated recent election campaigns in countries that include the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the United States.

    The subject sparked particularly fierce debates over welfare. While some politicians called for more support for typically economically vulnerable immigrant populations, others argued that welfare systems are already too generous and accommodating to newcomers.

    Unfortunately, many debates on this subject lack solid evidence. A newly launched data set could change that. The data, which provides systematic information on immigrants’ access to social programs across different countries and different time periods, can help ground some of these discussions in empirical reality.

    The data set reveals key insights. One striking observation is that the countries where politicians most frequently complain that immigrants are treated too generously are among the most exclusionary from a comparative perspective.

    It also shows that although most welfare systems were moving towards greater inclusion up until the 2010s, since then social programs in many countries have become more inclusive in some respects but more exclusive in others.

    A new data set for 22 countries

    The data set, called the Immigrant Exclusion from Social Programs Index (IESPI), measures how much immigrants’ access to pensions, health care, unemployment benefits, housing benefits, social assistance and active labour market programs compares to that of native-born citizens.

    The index uses 32 indicators to measure factors like whether immigrants have to have resided in the country for a certain period of time, held a specific type of residence status, or met standards of successful integration before they can access social programs.

    The data covers the years 1990 to 2023 and includes information for 22 countries.

    Complaints about inclusion

    In the United States, President Donald Trump has voiced concerns about immigrants’ welfare access repeatedly, both during his first term and since taking office again this year.

    In last year’s British election, a staple of Rishi Sunak’s campaign was the insistence that immigrants threaten the sustainability of the welfare state.

    On the other side of the North Sea, the political party that won the Dutch elections made the argument that immigrants are “pampered” a central feature of its election platform.

    Ironically, all three of these countries are among the most exclusionary, according to the most recent IESPI data, as the graph below illustrates. (Note that the IESPI is organized such that a value of 0 is maximally inclusionary and 100 is maximally exclusionary.)

    Inclusionary trends have ended

    A second observation is that the era of social welfare systems becoming more inclusive for immigrants has ended.

    From 1990 until the 2010s, most western welfare systems were removing barriers for immigrant access to social programs. But since then, levels of immigrant welfare exclusion have not changed dramatically over time.

    Closer inspection shows that this picture of stability since the 2010s hides negative trends in different social programs.

    On the one hand, health-care programs and active labour market policies have gradually become more inclusionary. More and more countries have been making health-care services accessible for vulnerable immigrant populations, and rolling out targeted programs to improve newcomers’ chances on the labour market.

    On the other hand, social assistance policies have generally become more exclusionary over time. Many countries have intensified restrictions for recent arrivals, migrants without permanent residence status and migrants who cannot demonstrate successful integration.

    Large differences in historical trajectories

    When we look beyond aggregate trends, we also note very different trajectories in different countries.

    In some countries (Austria, Germany, Finland, Iceland, Malta, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain), social programs have become consistently more inclusionary.

    Other countries (Canada, Luxembourg and Sweden) have also undergone an inclusionary development, although at a more modest pace of change.

    In a third set of countries (Australia, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Norway and Switzerland), policies initially became more inclusionary but this trend was halted or reversed around 2010. The social programs of three other countries (the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States), finally, have consistently become more exclusionary over time.

    These comparisons within the IESPI data set hopefully enable us to make sense of the frequently charged nature of discussions about immigrants’ access to social programs.

    Most obviously, they show we should be cautious when listening to some of the politicians who are most critical of immigrant welfare access, like Donald Trump, Rishi Sunak and Geert Wilders.

    If their arguments that exclusionary reforms in their countries are nothing but reasonable adjustments to overly generous approaches ever had any merit, that merit is quickly evaporating.

    Edward Koning received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada to collect the data for this project.

    – ref. Politicians’ attacks on immigrants lack solid evidence: New data set the record straight – https://theconversation.com/politicians-attacks-on-immigrants-lack-solid-evidence-new-data-set-the-record-straight-251853

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: With Hooters on the verge of bankruptcy, a psychologist reflects on her time spent studying the servers who work there

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Dawn Szymanski, Professor of Psychology, University of Tennessee

    Servers told researchers that they were instructed to make their male customers feel special. Brian Brainerd/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    In 1983, six businessmen got together and opened the first Hooters restaurant in Clearwater, Florida. Hooters of America LLC quickly became a restaurant chain success story.

    With its scantily clad servers and signature breaded wings, the chain sells sex appeal in addition to food – or as one of the company’s mottos puts it: “You can sell the sizzle, but you have to deliver the steak.” It inspired a niche restaurant genre called “breastaurants,” with eateries such as the Tilted Kilt Pub & Eatery and Twin Peaks replicating Hooters’ busty business model.

    A decade ago, business was booming for breastaurant chains, with these companies experiencing record sales growth.

    Today it’s a different story. Declining sales, rising costs and a large debt burden of approximately US$300 million have threatened Hooters’ long-term outlook. In summer 2024, the chain closed over 40 of its restaurants across the U.S. In February 2025, Bloomberg reported that the company was on the verge of filing for bankruptcy.

    Hooters isn’t necessarily going away for good. But it’s certainly looking like there will be fewer opportunities for women to work as “Hooters Girls” – and for customers to ogle at them.

    As a psychologist, I was originally interested in studying servers at breastaurants because I could sense an interesting dynamic at play. On the one hand, it can feel good to be complimented for your looks. On the other hand, I also wondered whether constantly being critiqued might eventually wear these servers down.

    So my research team and I decided to study what it was like to work in places like Hooters.

    In a series of studies, here’s what we found.

    Concocting a male fantasyland

    More so than most restaurants, managers at breastaurants like Hooters seek to strictly regulate how their employees look and act.

    For one of our studies, we interviewed 11 women who worked in breastaurants.

    Several of them said that they were told to be “camera ready” at all times.

    One described being given a booklet with exacting standards outlining her expected appearance, down to “nails, hair, makeup, brushing your teeth, wearing deodorant.” She had to promise to stay the same weight and height, wear makeup every shift and not change her hairstyle.

    Beyond a carefully constructed physical appearance, the servers relayed that they were also expected to be confident, cheerful, charming, outgoing and emotionally steeled. They were instructed to make male customers feel special, to be their “personal cheerleaders,” as one interviewee put it, and to never challenge them.

    Suffice it say, these demands can be unrealistic – and many of the servers we interviewed described becoming emotionally drained and eventually souring on the role.

    ‘The girls are a dime a dozen’

    It probably won’t come as a surprise that Hooters servers often encounter lewd remarks, sexual advances and other forms of sexual harassment from customers.

    But because their managers often tolerate this behavior from customers, it created the added burden of what psychologists call “double-binds” – situations where contradictory messages make it impossible to respond properly.

    For example, say a regular customer who’s a generous tipper decides to proposition a server. Now she’s in a predicament. She’s been instructed to make customers feel special. And he’s already left a big tip, in addition to being a regular. But she also feels creeped out, and his advances make her feel worthless. Should she push back?

    GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole shakes hands with Hooters employees after a campaign rally in Jacksonville, Fla., in 1996.
    J. David Ake/AFP via Getty Images

    You might assume that managers, aware that their scantily clad employees would be more likely to face harassment, would try to set boundaries and throw out customers who treated servers poorly. But we found that waitresses at breastaurants have less support from both management and their co-workers than servers at other restaurants.

    “Unfortunately, the girls are a dime a dozen, and that’s how they’re treated,” a former server and corporate trainer at a breastaurant explained.

    The lack of co-worker support might also come as a surprise. Rather than standing in solidarity, the servers tended to compete for favoritism, better shifts and raises from their bosses. Gossiping, name-calling and scapegoating were commonplace.

    The psychological toll

    My research team also wanted to learn more about the specific emotional and psychological costs of working in these types of environments.

    Psychologists Barbara Fredrickson and Tomi-Ann Robert have found that mental health problems that disproportionately affect women often coincide with sexual objectification.

    So we weren’t surprised to find that servers working in sexually objectifying restaurant environments, such as Hooters and Twin Peaks, reported more symptoms of depression, anxiety and disordered eating than those working in other restaurants. In addition, they wanted to be thinner, were more likely to monitor their weight and appearance, and were more dissatisfied with their bodies. Hooters didn’t reply to a request for comment on this story.

    Why are women drawn to the job?

    Given our findings, you might wonder why any women would choose to work in places like Hooters in the first place.

    The women we interviewed said that they sought work in breastaurants to make more money and have more flexibility.

    A number of servers in one of our studies noted that they could make more money this way than waitressing at a regular restaurant or in other “real” jobs.

    For example, one of the servers we interviewed used to work at a more run-of-the-mill restaurant.

    “It was OK, I made OK money,” she told us. “But working at Hooters … I’ve walked out with hundreds of dollars in one shift.”

    All the women we interviewed were in college or were mothers. So they enjoyed the high degree of flexibility in their work schedule that breastaurants provided.

    Finally, several of them had previously experienced objectification while growing up, or they’d participated in activities centered on physical appearance, such as beauty pageants and cheerleading. This likely contributed to their decision to work at a Hooters or one of its competitors: They’d been objectified as adolescents, and so they found themselves drawn to these kinds of setting as adults.

    Even so, our research suggests that the financial rewards and flexibility of working in breastaurants probably aren’t worth the potential psychological costs.

    Dawn Szymanski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With Hooters on the verge of bankruptcy, a psychologist reflects on her time spent studying the servers who work there – https://theconversation.com/with-hooters-on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy-a-psychologist-reflects-on-her-time-spent-studying-the-servers-who-work-there-251217

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico could spell trouble for distilled spirits

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrew Muhammad, Professor of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

    If all the tariff drama in the news lately has you reaching for a stiff drink, you’re not alone. Unfortunately, those same tariffs might make it harder to get your hands on your favorite brand of tequila.

    In early March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump levied import tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, following through on a promise he made back in November 2024. While he later partially reversed course, suspending tariffs on some goods, tensions remain high. Mexico is largely holding off on retaliation, but Canada quickly fired back with counter-tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. products.

    These trade tensions spell trouble for numerous industries, including the booming spirits market. Canada and Mexico – two of the top U.S. trading partners – accounted for nearly half of the US$12 billion in distilled spirits the U.S. imported in 2024.

    As an agricultural economist, I’ve analyzed how a 25% tariff could affect tequila, whiskey and other distilled spirits – and the results weren’t pretty. I found that these tariffs would cost distilled spirit importers over $1 billion in lost trade, with tequila alone taking a more than $800 million hit.

    Americans’ thirst for imported liquor

    The U.S. imports far more distilled spirits than it exports – five times as much by value, as of 2024.

    Since 2000, U.S. imports of distilled spirits have surged by more than 300%, driven largely by the explosive rise in tequila consumption. Between 2000 and 2024, tequila imports rose by 1,400%, skyrocketing from $350 million to $5.4 billion.

    While imports of whiskey, liqueurs, vodka and brandy also grew, none matched tequila’s explosive rise. Tequila now represents 45% of all spirits imported into the U.S., up from 12% in 2000.

    Not surprisingly, 99% of tequila and mezcal is imported from Mexico, making it the leading foreign supplier of distilled spirits to the United States. Meanwhile, Canada has supplied between 4% and 6% of U.S. spirits imports over the past two decades, primarily whiskey and liqueurs.

    Since distilled spirits are classified as agricultural products, their rising imports have significantly contributed to the U.S. agricultural trade deficit. However, this isn’t necessarily a problem. Imports help meet demand from U.S. consumers, generate value-added opportunities for U.S. companies, and support economic activity in bars, liquor stores, restaurants and beyond.

    A 25% tariff on Mexican goods is a 25% tax on tequila

    In my study, published in February in the peer-reviewed journal Agribusiness and in a follow-up policy brief, I found that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada could reduce imports of distilled spirits by $1.2 billion. This loss exceeds the total amount of tax revenue those tariffs can expected to bring in.

    Unsurprisingly, tequila imports would be the hardest hit, falling by $810 million. I found that the tariff revenue from tequila – $910 million – could actually exceed the corresponding fall in imports. That’s because demand for tequila, like most alcoholic beverages, is what economists call “inelastic,” meaning that when prices rise, consumers are unlikely to change their purchasing decisions by very much.

    However, it would be a mistake to consider tequila in isolation. When I factored in other notable decreases, such as a $100 million drop in whiskey imports, I found that the value of total trade losses, in the form of decreased imports, would outweigh the total tariff revenue. I also found that no product category would come out ahead.

    In fact, even products like vodka, which are mostly exempt from these tariffs, would be indirectly affected. This is because tariffs can increase the overall cost of importing, leading businesses to reduce all imports, tariffed or otherwise. My research suggests that this “trade destruction” effect, to use an economics term, will be quite significant.

    A new era of tariffs

    The Trump administration has argued that tariffs will generate a lot of money for the federal government. But my research suggests those gains may not outweigh the economic costs to businesses and consumers.

    Contrary to common belief, trade losses don’t just affect exporting countries. Domestic consumers also face higher prices and fewer choices – hurting their overall economic welfare. Reducing imports also affects U.S. businesses involved in marketing, distribution and sales.

    Trade is more complex than a simple formula of “exports good, imports bad.” Research makes it clear that tariffs have negative consequences, including higher consumer prices, reduced product availability and downstream economic disruption. Policymakers would be wise to take those effects seriously. Otherwise, they might find themselves with a serious economic hangover.

    Andrew Muhammad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico could spell trouble for distilled spirits – https://theconversation.com/trumps-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-could-spell-trouble-for-distilled-spirits-251583

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mississippi’s education miracle: A model for global literacy reform

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Harry Anthony Patrinos, Professor of Education Policy, University of Arkansas

    Mississippi’s reforms have led to significant gains in reading and math, despite the state being one of the lowest spenders per pupil in the U.S. Klaus Vedfelt/Getty Images

    In a surprising turnaround, Mississippi, once ranked near the bottom of U.S. education standings, has dramatically improved its student literacy rates.

    As of 2023, the state ranks among the top 20 for fourth grade reading, a significant leap from its 49th-place ranking in 2013. This transformation was driven by evidence-based policy reforms focused on early literacy and teacher development.

    The rest of the country might want to take note.

    That’s because Mississippi’s success offers a proven solution to the reading literacy crisis facing many states – a clear road map for closing early literacy gaps and improving reading outcomes nationwide.

    As an expert on the economics of education, I believe the learning crisis is not just an educational issue. It’s also economic.

    When students struggle, their academic performance declines. And that leads to lower test scores. Research shows that these declining scores are closely linked to reduced economic growth, as a less educated workforce hampers productivity and innovation.

    The Mississippi approach

    In 2013, Mississippi implemented a multifaceted strategy for enhancing kindergarten to third grade literacy. The Literacy-Based Promotion Act focuses on early literacy and teacher development. It includes teacher training in proven reading instruction methods and teacher coaching.

    Relying on federally supported research from the Institute of Education Science, the state invested in phonics, fluency, vocabulary and reading comprehension. The law provided K-3 teachers with training and support to help students master reading by the end of third grade.

    It includes provisions for reading coaches, parent communication, individual reading plans and other supportive measures. It also includes targeted support for struggling readers. Students repeat the third grade if they fail to meet reading standards.

    The state also aligned its test to the NAEP, or National Assessment of Educational Progress, something which not all states do. Often referred to as “The Nation’s Report Card,” the NAEP is a nationwide assessment that measures student performance in various subjects.

    Mississippi’s reforms have led to significant gains in reading and math, with fourth graders improving on national assessments.

    I believe this is extremely important. That’s because early reading is a foundational skill that helps develop the ability to read at grade level by the end of third grade. It also leads to general academic success, graduating from high school prepared for college, and becoming productive adults less likely to fall into poverty.

    Research by Noah Spencer, an economics doctoral student at the University of Toronto, shows that the Mississippi law boosted scores.

    Students exposed to it from kindergarten to the third grade gained a 0.25 standard deviation improvement in reading scores. That is roughly equivalent to one year of academic progress in reading, according to educational benchmarks. This gain reflects significant strides in students’ literacy development over the course of a school year.

    Another study has found an even greater impact attributed to grade retention in the third grade – it led to a huge increase in learning in English Language Arts by the sixth grade.

    But the Mississippi law is not just about retention. Spencer found that grade retention explains only about 22% of the treatment effect. The rest is presumably due to the other components of the measure – namely, teacher training and coaching.

    Other previous research supports these results across the country.

    Adopting an early literacy policy improves elementary students’ reading achievement on important student assessments, with third grade retention and instructional support substantially enhancing English learners’ skills. The policy also increases test scores for students’ younger siblings, although it is not clear why.

    Moreover, third grade retention programs immediately boost English Language Arts and math achievements into middle school without disciplinary incidents or negatively impacting student attendance.

    These changes were achieved despite Mississippi being one of the lowest spenders per pupil in the U.S., proving that strategic investments in teacher development and early literacy can yield impressive results even with limited resources.

    The global learning crisis

    Mississippi’s success is timely. Millions of children globally struggle to read by age 10. It’s a crisis that has worsened after the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Mississippi’s early literacy interventions show lasting impact and offer a potential solution for other regions facing similar challenges.

    In 2024, only 31% of U.S. fourth grade students were proficient or above in reading, according to the NAEP, while 40% were below basic. Reading scores for fourth and eighth graders also dropped by five points compared with 2019, with averages lower than any year since 2005.

    In 2013, Mississippi ranked 49th in fourth grade reading scores.
    Klaus Vedfelt/Getty Images

    Mississippi’s literacy program provides a learning gain equal to a year of schooling. The program costs US$15 million annually – 0.2% of the state budget in 2023 – and $32 per student.

    The learning gain associated with the Mississippi program is equal to about an extra quarter of a year. Since each year of schooling raises earnings by about 9%, then a quarter-year gain means that Mississippi students benefiting from the program will increase future earnings by 2.25% a year.

    Based on typical high school graduate earnings, the average student can expect to earn an extra $1,000 per year for the rest of their life.

    That is, for every dollar Mississippi spends, the state gains about $32 in additional lifetime earnings, offering substantial long-term economic benefits compared with the initial cost.

    The Mississippi literacy project focuses on teaching at the right level, which focuses on assessing children’s actual learning levels and then tailoring instruction to meet them, rather than strictly following age- or grade-level curriculum.

    Teaching at the right level and a scripted lessons plan are among the most effective strategies to address the global learning crisis. After the World Bank reviewed over 150 education programs in 2020, nearly half showed no learning benefit.

    I believe Mississippi’s progress, despite being the second-poorest state, can serve as a wake-up call.

    Harry Anthony Patrinos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mississippi’s education miracle: A model for global literacy reform – https://theconversation.com/mississippis-education-miracle-a-model-for-global-literacy-reform-251895

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From Greenland to Fort Bragg, America is caught in a name game where place names become political tools

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Seth T. Kannarr, PhD Candidate in Geography, University of Tennessee

    President Donald Trump re-renamed Denali as Mount McKinley in 2025. Tim Rains/National Park Service, CC BY

    Place names are more than just labels on a map. They influence how people learn about the world around them and perceive their place in it.

    Names can send messages and suggest what is and isn’t valued in society. And the way that they are changed over time can signal cultural shifts.

    The United States is in the midst of a place-renaming moment. From the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, to the return of Forts Bragg and Benning and the newly re-renamed Mount McKinley in Alaska’s Denali National Park, we are witnessing a consequential shift in the politics of place naming.

    This sudden rewriting of the nation’s map – done to “restore American greatness,” according to President Donald Trump’s executive order that made some of them official – is part of a name game that recognizes place names as powerful brands and political tools.

    In our research on place naming, we explore how this “name game” is used to assert control over shared symbols and embed subtle and not-so-subtle messages in the landscape.

    As geography teachers and researchers, we also recognize the educational and emotional impact the name game can have on the public.

    Place names can have psychological effects

    Renaming a place is always an act of power.

    People in power have long used place naming to claim control over the identity of the place, bolster their reputations, retaliate against opponents and achieve political goals.

    These moves can have strong psychological effects, particularly when the name evokes something threatening. Changing a place name can fundamentally shift how people view, relate to or feel that they belong within that place.

    In Shenandoah County, Virginia, students at two schools originally named for Confederate generals have been on an emotional roller coaster of name changes in recent years. The schools were renamed Mountain View and Honey Run in 2020 amid the national uproar over the murder of George Floyd, a Black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis.

    Four years later, the local school board reinstated the original Confederate names after conservatives took control of the board.

    One Black eighth grader at Mountain View High School — now re-renamed Stonewall Jackson High School — testified at a board meeting about how the planned change would affect her:

    “I would have to represent a man that fought for my ancestors to be slaves. If this board decides to restore the names, I would not feel like I was valued and respected,” she said. The board still approved the change, 5-1.

    Even outside of schools, place names operate as a “hidden curriculum.” They provide narratives to the public about how the community or nation sees itself – as well as whose histories and perspectives it considers important or worthy of public attention.

    Place names affect how people perceive, experience and emotionally connect to their surroundings in both conscious and subconscious ways. Psychologists, sociologists and geographers have explored how this sense of place manifests itself into the psyche, creating either attachment or aversion to place, whether it’s a school, mountain or park.

    A tale of two forts

    Renaming places can rally a leader’s supporters through rebranding.

    Trump’s orders to restore the names Fort Bragg and Fort Benning, both originally named for Confederate generals, illustrate this effect. The names were changed to Fort Liberty and Fort Moore in 2023 after Congress passed a law banning the use of Confederate names for federal installations.

    Veterans and other guests posed in 2023 next to a newly unveiled sign for Fort Moore, named for Lt. Gen. Harold ‘Hal’ Moore, who served in Vietnam, and his wife, Julia Moore. In 2025, President Donald Trump reverted the name back to Fort Benning.
    Cheney Orr/AFP via Getty Images

    Trump made a campaign promise to his followers to “bring back the name” of Fort Bragg if reelected.

    To get around the federal ban, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth identified two unrelated decorated Army veterans with the same last names — Bragg and Benning — but without any Confederate connections, to honor instead.

    Call it a sleight of hand or a stroke of genius if you’d like, this tactic allowed the Department of Defense to revive politically charged names without violating the law.

    A soldier walks beside a sign that was unveiled when Fort Liberty was rededicated as Fort Bragg during a ceremony on base on March 7, 2025.
    AP Photo/Chris Seward

    The restoration of the names Bragg and Benning may feel like a symbolic homecoming for those who resisted the original name change or have emotional ties to the names through their memories of living and serving on the base, rather than a connection to the specific namesakes.

    However, the names are still reminders of the military bases’ original association with defenders of slavery.

    The place-renaming game

    A wave of place-name changes during the Obama and Biden administrations focused on removing offensive or derogatory place names and recognizing Indigenous names.

    For example, Clingmans Dome, the highest peak in the Great Smoky Mountains, was renamed to Kuwohi in September 2024, shifting the name from a Confederate general to a Cherokee word meaning “the mulberry place.”

    Under the Trump administration, however, place-name changes are being advanced explicitly to push back against reform efforts, part of a broader assault on what Trump calls “woke culture.”

    The view from a lookout tower on Kuwohi, formerly known as Clingmans Dome, in the Great Smoky Mountains.
    National Park Service



    Read more:
    From Confederate general to Cherokee heritage: Why returning the name Kuwohi to the Great Smoky Mountains matters

    President Barack Obama changed Alaska’s Mount McKinley to Denali in 2015 to acknowledge Indigenous heritage and a long-standing name for the mountain. Officials in Alaska had requested the name change to Denali years earlier and supported the name change in 2015.

    Trump, on his first day in office in January 2025, moved to rename Denali back to Mount McKinley, over the opposition of Republican politicians in Alaska. The state Legislature passed a resolution a few days later asking Trump to reconsider.

    Georgia Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter made a recent legislative proposal to rename Greenland as “Red, White, and Blueland” in support of Trump’s expansionist desire to purchase the island, which is an autonomous territory of Denmark.

    Danish officials and Greenlanders saw Carter’s absurd proposal as insulting and damaging to diplomatic relations. It is not the first time that place renaming has been used as a form of symbolic insult in international relations.

    Renaming the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America might have initially seemed improbable, but it is already reflected in common navigation apps.

    Google Maps displays the name ‘Gulf of America’ instead of Gulf of Mexico in March 2025.
    Google INEGI



    Read more:
    Yes, Trump can rename the Gulf of Mexico – just not for everyone. Here’s how it works

    A better way to choose place names

    When leaders rename a place in an abrupt, unilateral fashion — often for ideological reasons — they risk alienating communities that deeply connect with those names as a form of memory, identity and place attachment.

    A better alternative, in our view, would be to make renaming shared landscapes participatory, with opportunities for meaningful public involvement in the renaming process.

    This approach does not avoid name changes, but it suggests the changes should respond to the social and psychological needs of communities and the evolving cultural identity of places — and not simply be used to score political points.

    Instead, encouraging public participation — such as through landscape impact assessments and critical audits that take the needs of affected communities seriously — can cultivate a sense of shared ownership in the decision that may give those names more staying power.

    The latest place renamings are already affecting the classroom experience. Students are not just memorizing new place labels, but they are also being asked to reevaluate the meaning of those places and their own relationship with the nation and the world.

    As history has shown around the world, one of the major downsides of leaders imposing name changes is that the names can be easily replaced as soon as the next regime takes power. The result can be a never-ending name game.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From Greenland to Fort Bragg, America is caught in a name game where place names become political tools – https://theconversation.com/from-greenland-to-fort-bragg-america-is-caught-in-a-name-game-where-place-names-become-political-tools-251201

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Medetomidine is replacing xylazine in Philly street fentanyl − creating new hurdles for health care providers and drug users

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kory London, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University

    Medetomidine is now a key ingredient in street fentanyl sold in Philly. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    Philadelphia’s street opioid supply – or “dope” market – is constantly changing. As health care workers and researchers who care for people who use drugs in our community, we have witnessed these shifts firsthand.

    New adulterants are frequently added to the mix. They bring additional and often uncertain risks for people who use drugs, and new challenges for the health care providers and systems who treat them.

    The latest adulterant to dominate the supply is medetomidine.

    What is medetomodine?

    Medetomidine, pronounced meh-deh-TOH-muh-deen, is a drug used in veterinary medicine for sedation, muscle relaxation and pain relief, often during surgery. It is an alpha-2 adrenergic agonist, which essentially means it works by slowing the release of adrenaline in the brain and body.

    In May 2024, the Philadelphia Medical Examiner’s Office began testing for medetomidine in people who died from fatal overdoses. By the end of the year, 46 of the deceased had tested positive for the substance, in addition to fentanyl and other known chemicals.

    In fact, medetomidine is quickly becoming more common in Philadelphia’s street opioid supply than even xylazine, a non-FDA-approved sedative linked to skin ulceration, chronic wounds and amputation.

    Xylazine was first detected in Philadelphia street drugs in 2006 and became increasingly common starting in 2015. By early 2023, xylazine was detected in 98% of tested dope samples in the city.

    However, its presence is steadily dropping, according to local drug-checking program data. The Philadelphia Department of Public Health says medetomidine has emerged as a primary adulterant and is now twice as common as xylazine in drug-checked samples.

    Recent studies show even more unusual substances entering the street fentanyl supply, such as the industrial solvent BTMPS.

    At the same time, hospital and behavioral health providers are reporting more common presentations of severe withdrawal symptoms among people who use drugs in Philadelphia.

    Risks of medetomidine

    While medetomidine’s sedating effects are similar in mechanism to xylazine, it is upward of 10-20 times more potent. It suppresses brain signals in the central nervous system, leading to deep sedation.

    Since medetomidine is so powerful and does not act on opioid receptors, a person who overdoses on it often does not respond to the opioid-reversal drug naloxone, which goes by the brand name Narcan, in the manner we commonly expect from people who appear to have overdosed on opioids.

    When patients overdose on a combination of opioids and medetomidine, providing naloxone will help individuals start breathing again but does not reverse the sedation caused by the medetomidine.

    From our clinical experience, after patients start to breathe normally, providing additional doses of naloxone does not seem to help and even risks prompting opioid withdrawal symptoms.

    Additionally, medetomidine presents serious clinical challenges for health care workers treating patients in withdrawal. These patients often experience symptoms such as rapid heart rate, severe spikes in blood pressure, restlessness, disorientation and confusion, and severe vomiting. While many of these symptoms were similar, if less intense, for those withdrawing from opioids and xylazine, the number of patients we are seeing is unprecedented – as is the severity of their symptoms.

    While published data on humans’ withdrawal from medetomidine is limited, clinicians are drawing comparisons to dexmedetomidine, a related drug used in humans that has shown similar features when withdrawn too quickly.

    Researchers and clinicians in Philadelphia’s hospitals, including us at Thomas Jefferson University, are analyzing emerging clinical data. This data suggests that existing protocols that effectively controlled withdrawal symptoms in the era when xylazine was common are no longer adequate in the era of medetomidine. New protocols have been developed based on the guidance of local experts and are being tested.

    When patients overdose on a combination of opioids and medetomidine, providing naloxone can help individuals start breathing again but does not reverse the sedation caused by the medetomidine.
    AP Photo/Alex Brandon

    Approaches to drug testing

    The rise in severe withdrawal symptoms has prompted expanded testing for adulterants such as medetomidine in Jefferson’s emergency departments.

    Currently, drug testing involves two primary approaches. Qualitative analysis determines the presence or absence of substances. For example, fentanyl and xylazine test strips are commonly used by harm reduction groups and people who use drugs. Unfortunately, they can be unreliable and prone to user error, expiration, misinterpretation and false positives or negatives. This technology is also commonly used in urine drug-testing kits sold over the counter.

    Quantitative analysis, on the other hand, is a more sophisticated approach to drug testing. It uses complex technology such as liquid-phase chromatography and mass spectrometry to separate the individual components of a sample and determine their concentration. This form of testing is more expensive and requires specialized equipment and analysts to perform the tests and interpret the results.

    Hospitals in the city have begun selectively testing urine and blood samples from patients who present with suspected medetomidine exposure. The labs are looking for the presence of certain drugs and their related byproducts, and also trying to identify distinct concentrations that might be associated with overdose, intoxication and withdrawal.

    Implications for public health

    We believe Philadelphians should be aware of these recent changes in the street drug supply and how people in their communities may react to exposure to medetomidine.

    Naloxone is still recommended for a person showing signs of opioid overdose – such as excess sedation, shallow or absent breathing and small pupils. Narcan is freely available at pharmacies around the city. But if the patient starts breathing but does not immediately wake up, additional doses of naloxone should be avoided.

    As always, contact 911 for expert assistance and to get patients to an emergency department to complete their care.

    Patients who use large amounts of drugs may suffer from severe withdrawal symptoms. Typical medications given to those in opioid withdrawal, such as buprenorphine or methadone, may not be sufficient to treat this constellation of symptoms. Even medications and regimens tailored for xylazine may not be effective.

    Patients with severe withdrawal symptoms need to be seen in the emergency department, given the risk of undertreating this emerging condition.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia.

    Kory London receives funding from The Sheller Family Foundation.

    Karen Alexander receives funding from the National Institutes on Drug Abuse (NIDA).

    – ref. Medetomidine is replacing xylazine in Philly street fentanyl − creating new hurdles for health care providers and drug users – https://theconversation.com/medetomidine-is-replacing-xylazine-in-philly-street-fentanyl-creating-new-hurdles-for-health-care-providers-and-drug-users-251753

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US swing toward autocracy doesn’t have to be permanent – but swinging back to democracy requires vigilance, stamina and elections

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jennifer Victor, Associate Professor of Political Science, George Mason University

    The United States is no longer a democracy.

    At least, that’s the verdict of one nonprofit, the Center for Systemic Peace, which measures regime qualities of countries worldwide based on the competitiveness and integrity of their elections, limits to executive authority and other factors.

    “The USA is no longer considered a democracy and lies at the cusp of autocracy,” the group’s 2025 report read.

    It calls Donald Trump’s second inauguration following a raft of criminal indictments and convictions, combined with the U.S. Supreme Court’s July 2024 granting of sweeping presidential immunity, a “presidential coup.”

    Generally, only scholars pay attention to this kind of technical index. This year, however, many people are calling out the erosion of U.S. democracy.

    Political scientists like myself can see that in the guise of government “efficiency,” the Trump administration is sabotaging the rule of law to such an extent that authoritarianism is taking hold in America.

    How long might this situation last?

    US no longer a democracy?

    The term “political regime” refers to either the person or people who hold power, or to a classification of government, including in a democracy.

    Since the mid-1960s, when the U.S. expanded voting rights to include its Black citizens, historians and political scientists have generally classified the U.S. as having a democratic regime. That means the government holds free and fair elections, embraces universal voting rights, protects civil liberties and obeys the law.

    All of these areas have significantly degraded in the U.S. over the last few decades due to partisan polarization and political extremism. Now, the rule of law is under attack, too.

    Trump’s unprecedented use of nearly 100 executive orders in the first two months of his presidency aims to enact a vast policy agenda by decree. For comparison, President Joe Biden issued 162 executive orders over four years.

    This is not what the founders had in mind: Congress is the constitutional route for policy-making. Skirting it threatens democracy, as do the issues Trump’s orders address. From attempting to deny citizenship through birthright to abolishing the U.S. Department of Education, Trump is attacking both the U.S. Constitution and Congress. His administration has even defied judges who order it to stop.

    All of this challenges the rule of law – that is, the idea that everyone, including those in power, must follow the same laws.

    When things get this bad, can a country recover?

    Autocrats can be beaten

    Based on my research, the short answer is yes – eventually.

    When a political party that does not honor democratic institutions or heed critical democratic norms takes power, political scientists expect the government to shift toward autocratic rule. That means restricting civil liberties, quashing dissent and undermining the rule of law.

    This is happening right now in the U.S.

    The Trump administration is challenging broadcasters for their election coverage and banning speech that does not conform to its gender ideology. It’s flagrantly violating the Constitution. And it’s eliminating federal funding for universities and research centers that oppose its actions.

    However, as long as a country has a robust opposition and elections that offer real opportunities for alternative parties to win office, the regime shift is not necessarily permanent.

    Take Brazil, for example.

    Its 2022 election ousted President Jair Bolsonaro, leader of an autocratic regime that had attacked the Brazilian media, judiciary and legislature. Bolsonaro claimed his loss to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was fraudulent, and in January 2023 his supporters attacked the nation’s capital. Since then, Bolsonaro has been charged with plotting a coup and barred from seeking office until 2030.

    Brazilian voters and the courts stemmed the country’s autocratic slide and returned it to a democratic regime.

    Polarization swings the pendulum

    Today the American public is deeply divided and dissatisfied with how U.S. democracy works. This polarization translates into presidential elections that are narrowly won.

    According to the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, which measures presidential margins of victory by subtracting the electoral vote percentage from the popular vote percentage for each election, the average margin of victory in presidential elections between 1932 and 2000 was 25 points. Since 2000, it has been 7.8 points.

    Moreover, since 1948, every time the White House changed hands after an election, it flipped parties as well, with one exception in 1988. Political scientists refer to this back-and-forth as “thermostatic shifting.” In other words, the electorate regularly sours on the status quo and aims to adjust the thermostat to another temperature – or political party.

    When a party that more strongly favors democratic principles takes power, the U.S. more firmly adheres to democratic institutions and norms. This was essentially Biden’s winning pitch to voters in 2020.

    Trump’s return to the White House despite two impeachments and a criminal conviction on 34 felony charges marked another pendulum swing – this time, back in the direction of authoritarianism.

    The U.S. political pendulum has been singing back and forth like this since at least 2016, with Trump’s first win. I expect the oscillation to continue.

    A kind of equilibrium

    The risk, of course, is that a ruling authoritarian-leaning party abuses its power to ensure that the opposition can never again win. This has happened in recent decades in Hungary, Turkey and Venezuela, to name a few.

    There are good reasons to believe that a permanent slide into autocracy is harder in the U.S. than in those countries.

    The U.S. has a robust and wealthy network of civil society organizations, which are well versed in exercising their civil liberties. Its decentralized federalist structure is harder for any one person or party to seize. U.S. elections for example, are run by state and local governments, not the federal government. This makes its election systems more resilient than more centralized election systems.

    At the moment, I see no reason to fear that the U.S. will fail to hold free and fair elections in 2026 or 2028.

    For the time being, then, the U.S. is in what I call a “pendular equilibrium.” Parties trade majority control as voters react to extremism, shifting the regime from more autocratic to more democratic depending on who is in power.

    The effect is a stable outcome of sorts – not a static stability but a dynamic stability. Despite the day-to-day chaos, there is balance over time in the predictable shift back and forth.

    When the pendulum stops swinging

    Until, that is, some other force comes along to disrupt the pattern.

    This might be a force more toward fascism that restricts elections to the point of futility, as in Venezuela and Russia. Or the equilibrium could be thrown off by a democratic resurgence, in the model of Brazil or Poland.

    Even just maintaining the pendular equilibrium to conserve some manner of democratic regime will require those who oppose authoritarianism to boldly insist on political leaders who value democratic principles: fair elections, voting rights, civil liberties and rule of law.

    Dangerously, many Americans won’t notice the end of democracy as it happens. As the political scientist Tom Pepinksy writes, life in authoritarian states is mostly boring and tolerable.

    For those who pay attention, the frequency and seriousness of lawless actions can nonetheless make it difficult to sustain an organized opposition.

    Until and unless the U.S. nurtures and elects political movements and leaders who make lasting democratic changes, I believe the country will continue to lurch back and forth in its pendulum swing.

    Jennifer Victor serves as the Vice Chair of the Board of Directors of OpenSecrets, a non-partisan, non-profit. This is an unpaid position.

    – ref. US swing toward autocracy doesn’t have to be permanent – but swinging back to democracy requires vigilance, stamina and elections – https://theconversation.com/us-swing-toward-autocracy-doesnt-have-to-be-permanent-but-swinging-back-to-democracy-requires-vigilance-stamina-and-elections-250383

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Forget booing the anthem, Canada must employ strategic communications to fight Trump’s lies

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Matthew Hefler, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Statecraft and Strategic Communication, Stockholm School of Economics

    Since his return to office, United States President Donald Trump has launched a trade war on Canada. The White House has twice set deadlines for the imposition of sweeping 25 pre cent tariffs — and twice pulled back.

    Trump has also threatened to use “economic force” to compel Canada to become the 51st state, remarks that are a focal point of the ongoing federal election campaign.

    Canadians are offended. They’ve voiced this displeasure, with Canadian sports fans continuing to boo the American anthem at recent events.

    This might be counterproductive.

    Trump says Canada is ‘nasty’

    In this trade war, Canada faces more than tariffs: it’s confronting a communications effort by the president to paint Canadians as mean, disrespectful and “nasty.”

    Trump’s most consistent line is that Canadians are “not fair,” “very abusive” and taking advantage of the U.S. on trade.

    Regardless of the truth, the president repeats these allegations over and over and over again.

    The repetition is the point — it’s an important practice in strategic communications or what’s known as StratCom, the use of communication to achieve objectives.

    The repetition is key to Trump’s StratCom — it’s a way of making his message stick. Hard as it is for Canadians to believe this, there’s a danger of this “nasty Canadian” narrative taking hold south of the border.

    Take it from a communications expert who often works in the U.S. and Europe: not everyone is as well-versed on the dispute as Canadians are. Even actions like booing the American anthem risk reinforcing Trump’s slurs against Canada.

    Canada must devise its own strategy to counter Trump’s message and remind Americans — and the world — that Canada trades on fair terms. By dampening American support for the president’s trade war, this StratCom effort could actually help protect the Canada-U.S. relationship for the long term.

    Creating false counter-narratives

    Trump has long mastered the art of swapping one narrative with a preferred alternative. This tactic has arguably helped save his political career.

    For millions of Americans, the president turned Russian interference in the 2016 election into the “Russia Hoax” — something he raised as recently as the infamous Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Rather than concede the 2020 election, Trump and his allies adopted the mantra “Stop the Steal.” And in a most striking StratCom effort, Trump and supporters recast the events of Jan. 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol into “a day of love.” Trump also issued a blanket pardon of all those convicted over the attack.

    These are astounding examples of strategic communications, whatever we might think of the president’s honesty or his objectives.

    Every time Trump repeats claims that Canada is taking advantage of the U.S., that narrative becomes further entrenched. So far, Ottawa has reminded Americans that Canada is a good partner and that tariffs would hurt both countries.

    But it’s not clear that appealing to the long Canadian-American history as allies is having much effect in the White House. In early February, Vice President JD Vance posted: “Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our ‘best friend’” and noted Canada’s low defence spending.

    A Canadian StratCom strategy

    The Canadian government therefore must invest in an ambitious campaign of strategic communications. It should drive home that Canadians trade on fair terms and that Canada buys more American goods than China, Japan, the United Kingdom and France combined.

    This StratCom effort must make clear that Canadians can and will be forced to buy elsewhere. It must note that Trump renegotiated a new Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal in 2018 and that the agreement was a win for the U.S.

    The campaign can employ humility and humour, but it must reinforce the mutual benefit of trade and make clear that Trump’s anti-Canada comments are not based in reality.

    Some specific claims must be targeted. Trump often notes that Canada has high tariffs on specific American products, like milk. But this can be misleading, as these are part of a negotiated supply control quota system.

    Rather than simply counter Trump’s narrative, the campaign should advance a Canadian one.

    Canadian leaders are starting to recognize this. Before leaving office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau compared Trump’s treatment of Canada over trade with his conciliatory stance toward Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

    Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland has underscored the importance of communicating directly to regular Americans. The federal government has paid for anti-tariff ads on digital billboards along key highways in red states, including Florida, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio.

    Canadians themselves are in on the act. Decades after Canadian actor and broadcaster Jeff Douglas appeared in the iconic “I am Canadian” commercial, he’s come out with a new rendition.

    “We are Canadian” rejects the president’s “51st State” threats. Its polite but firm tone is the sort of quintessentially Canadian response that should form the basis of a national StatCom effort.

    A new Jeff Douglas ‘We Are Canadian’ video.

    Controlling the narrative

    Given time and space, Trump can reshape the terms of the debate or even perceptions of reality. The Canadian government should therefore lead the way in defending the country’s trading practices and its value as a partner.

    This effort should reflect Canada’s traditional emphasis on respect and decency. Canadians are offended. But they should resist responses like booing another nation’s anthem — especially if it contributes to the president’s effort to paint Canadians as mean or disrespectful.

    The Canada-U.S. relationship will be changed by this experience. But whether the rift is lasting depends in part on whether Canadians believe regular Americans accept or reject the president’s narrative.

    A good communications effort could help Canada counter the president’s StratCom campaign and reduce the longer-term fallout from this unfair attack — no matter the repeated threats and slurs emanating from the Oval Office.

    Matthew Hefler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Forget booing the anthem, Canada must employ strategic communications to fight Trump’s lies – https://theconversation.com/forget-booing-the-anthem-canada-must-employ-strategic-communications-to-fight-trumps-lies-252704

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton promises $6 billion 12-month halving of petrol and diesel excise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Opposition leader Peter Dutton will promise in his Thursday budget reply that a Coalition government would immediately halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel.

    The cut, which would take the excise from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents, would be for a year, at a cost of A$6 billion.

    The opposition says the measure would mean a household with one vehicle filling up once a week would save about $14 weekly, on average. This would amount to about $700 to $750 over the year, based on a 55 litre tank.

    A two-car household would save about $28 a week on average – nearly $1500 over the year.

    Legislation for the excise cut would be introduced on the first parliamentary sitting day after the election so it could come into effect “as quickly as possible”.

    Dutton contrasted the immediate relief with the longer time frame before people received the tax cuts announced in the budget.

    Under the tax changes, taxpayers will receive a tax cut of up to $268 from July 1 next year and up to $536 every year from July 1 2027.

    The $17.1 billion income tax package was being rushed through the Senate on Wednesday night, as the parliament readies to rise for the election, that could be called as early as Friday for May 3.

    The government wanted to pass the legislation immediately to put the Coalition, which opposed the bill and voted against it in parliament, on the spot.

    Also, having the tax cuts in law gives greater certainty to them, as Labor promotes them in the coming campaign.

    Dutton said of his proposed excise cut: “If elected, we will deliver this cost of living relief immediately – whereas people have to wait 15 months for Labor’s 70 cent a day tax tweak.”

    “This cost of living relief will make a real difference to families and small businesses – everyone from tradies, to mums and dads, to older Australians, and to transport delivery workers,” he said.

    “The commute to work, taking the kids to school or sport, the family drive, or the trip to the shops will all cost less under the Coalition. Our plan will save many hundreds of dollars for families across Australia.

    “Lowering costs to small businesses, means lower costs for goods and services at the checkout.”

    The Morrison government introduced a six-month cut to fuel excise in 2022. The Albanese government declined to extend it when it expired.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Peter Dutton promises $6 billion 12-month halving of petrol and diesel excise – https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-promises-6-billion-12-month-halving-of-petrol-and-diesel-excise-250896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor on tax top-ups and budget bottom lines

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    As the election starter’s gun is about to be fired, Tuesday’s budget announced modest income tax cuts as the government’s latest cost-of-living measure. The Coalition has opposed the tax relief, with Peter Dutton’s Thursday budget reply to put forward his policy counters on the cost of living.

    Meanwhile, the domestic economic debate is being conducted as President Donald Trump prepares to unveil more tariffs, which are likely to produce further uncertainty in the world economy.

    On this podcast we are joined by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor.

    Chalmers says the government is making every last-minute effort to argue against Australia being hit with more US tariffs. He’s ready to make personal representations if that’s thought useful.

    I’ve been discussing that with Don Farrell, the minister for trade, whether or not that would be helpful to some of the efforts that he’s currently engaged in. So we’re working as a team on it. We’re working out the best [and] most effective ways to engage with the Americans. Again, speaking up for and standing up for our national interest.

    We’re not uniquely impacted by the tariffs either already imposed or proposed. But we’ve got a lot of skin in the game here. We’re a trading nation, we generate a lot of prosperity on global markets.

    A criticism from some about the budget was that climate change wasn’t mentioned explicitly. Chalmers takes issue with that.

    I would have thought that an extra A$3 billion for green metals, which is about leveraging our traditional strengths and resources, our developing industries and the energy transformation to create something that the world needs, I think that’s a climate change policy.

    And also the Innovation Fund, another $1.5 billion or so for the Innovation Fund in terms of sustainable aviation fuels, that’s a climate policy and also we’re recapitalising another couple of billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    So in every budget, we’ve made new investments in climate change and in energy and this week’s budget was no different in that regard.

    Angus Taylor is scathing about Labor’s “top-up” tax cuts, which were the budget’s centrepiece, saying:

    A government that has overseen an unprecedented collapse in our living standards, unrivalled by any other country in the world, and they’re trying to tell Australians that 70 cents a day, more than a year from now, is a solution to that problem?

    It’s laughable, it is not even going to touch the sides, it’s Band-Aid on a bullet wound. It’s a cruel hoax. And frankly, the idea that this is good government is absolutely laughable.

    On what change of approach a Coalition government would take, Angus Taylor points to the “fiscal rules that we adhered to when we were last in government”.

    They were on the back of the rules that were established in the Charter of Budget Honesty that was established by Peter Costello in the 1990s to make sure your economy grows faster than your spending. That doesn’t mean spending doesn’t grow, it just means your economy grows faster.

    So both of those things matter, a faster growing economy and managing your spending so that it’s not growing faster. Jim Chalmers doesn’t get that.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor on tax top-ups and budget bottom lines – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-jim-chalmers-and-angus-taylor-on-tax-top-ups-and-budget-bottom-lines-253112

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kenya’s decision to make maths optional in high school is a bad idea – what should happen instead

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Moses Ngware, Senior Research Scientist, African Population and Health Research Center

    Kenya’s education ministry announced in March 2025 that mathematics would be an optional subject in senior secondary school, which begins in grade 10. Most students in this grade are aged 15 years. The education minister said the mathematics taught from grade 4 to grade 9 was sufficient for foundational “numeracy literacy”.

    The change, in January 2026, is part of a shift to a new education system styled as the competence based curriculum. The decision is not to scrap maths altogether but rather to make it optional. However, given the poor performance in this subject, it is expected there will be few takers.

    Maths is a compulsory subject in the first 12 years of basic education in many African countries. This is the case in Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa, which opted for a choice between maths and mathematical literacy for grades 10-12.

    The older education system, known as 8-4-4, featured eight years of primary school and four each at high school and university. Under this, core maths, dubbed Alternative A, is compulsory for all schoolgoing children until the second year of high school (form 2). Most students in this grade are aged 16 years. In the final two years of high school, one has the option of switching to Alternative B, a simplified version of Alternative A introduced in 2009. Alternative B is similar to South Africa’s mathematical literacy subject.

    The decision has triggered heated debates in the country, in favour and against.

    As a researcher who has taught high school maths and researched maths teaching for over 20 years, I have the view that making maths optional is not a good idea. This is because both individuals and society need maths, regardless of the career path they might choose.

    It’s been argued that the change applies to the last two senior years of high school, which was the case in the old system too. For the new curriculum, however, this should not have been a problem as it is competence-based. This implies that what matters is the specific skills and knowledge mastered by a student, and not the examination scores.

    The Kenyan education department should establish the root causes of the low performance in maths, and fix them. Research shows that chief among these are resource allocation; weak teacher preparation and support for foundational numeracy instruction; a learning disability known as dyscalculia; and the behavioural performance of maths teachers.

    Kenya’s maths problem

    In the 2022 Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education exams, graded between A (highest) and E (lowest), over half of the 881,416 candidates’ maths scores fell in the lowest two grades, D and E. This improved only marginally in 2023. To put the performance in context, the pass rate in high school certificate maths examinations in Mauritius improved from 81.4% to 91.8% between 2019 and 2022.

    There are a number of reasons for this dismal performance in Kenya:

    Resource allocation: The better-resourced national schools can only admit a small number of students, leaving out over 70% who join low-resourced day schools. Resources for learning maths range from teachers to interactive teaching and learning materials inside the classroom. With the support of partners such as the Global Partnership for Education, the government aims to achieve a 1:1 textbook-per-student ratio goal. However, the flow of capitation grants to secondary schools has been wanting, jeopardising access to resources at the school level.

    Teacher preparation: Teachers aren’t well prepared to support learners in foundational numeracy (maths in early grades). Foundational numeracy skills are critical in creating strong building blocks for future learning and success in later grades.

    Teacher behaviour: Classroom observation studies reveal that maths teachers favour boys. Furthermore, above average learners sit in the front closer to the chalkboard, and learners are denied positive reinforcement that would motivate them to learn maths. There are also negative attitudes about maths as a difficult subject, reinforcing the stereotype that it is only suitable for boys and “bright” children.

    Dyscalculia: Worldwide, 3%-7% of the general population are affected by a disability known as dyscalculia. In Kenya, 6.4% among primary and secondary school children have the disability. It is a condition that affects a person’s ability to understand numerical concepts. By implication, the number of the 962,512 Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education candidates of 2024 with this disability works out to between 28,000 and 68,000 candidates. But Kenya’s education system doesn’t support teachers in diagnosing learners with dyscalculia, or managing their disability.

    Policy options

    There are alternatives to making maths an optional subject in senior secondary school.

    The system needs to focus on the root causes of low performance, and then on how to fix them.

    I suggest the following solutions.

    • Avoid unnecessarily using achievement in maths to determine access to academic and training programmes. This way, one’s career will not solely be determined by performance in maths.

    • Keep a simpler maths alternative, or maths literacy, for senior secondary instead of making maths optional.

    • Teachers should continue to develop their competence in maths, focusing on content knowledge as well as knowledge of how to teach numeracy.

    • The general public should communicate effectively to eliminate negative stereotypes and unhelpful attitudes in society. The aim is to shift mindsets so that maths is perceived as part of life – making it necessary to support all children to succeed in maths.

    • Help learners to overcome dyscalculia, using multisensory teaching approaches – a way of teaching that engages more than one sense at a time: sight, hearing, movement and touch.

    Moses Ngware receives funding from the African Population and Health Research Center. He is affiliated with the African Population and Health Research Center.

    – ref. Kenya’s decision to make maths optional in high school is a bad idea – what should happen instead – https://theconversation.com/kenyas-decision-to-make-maths-optional-in-high-school-is-a-bad-idea-what-should-happen-instead-252965

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘The bush calls us’: the defiant women who demanded a place on the walking track

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruby Ekkel, PhD student in Australian History, Australian National University

    Fairfax Corporation (1932)

    ➡️ View the full interactive version of this article here.

    Ruby Ekkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘The bush calls us’: the defiant women who demanded a place on the walking track – https://theconversation.com/the-bush-calls-us-the-defiant-women-who-demanded-a-place-on-the-walking-track-241126

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –