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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cottontail review: how a man’s journey through grief mirrors our search for peace – by an expert in death and grieving

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chao Fang, Lecturer in Sociology, Deputy Director of the Centre for Ageing and the Life Course, University of Liverpool

    Cottontail (コットンテール), a newly released Japanese film, tells the touching and relatable story of Kenzaburo (Ken), a man in his late middle age grieving the loss of his wife, Akiko, after a long illness. To honour her dying wish, he embarks on a journey to take her ashes to the Lake District in northern England – a place deeply meaningful to her.

    It was not just the beauty of the landscape that drew her, but also its connection to Peter Rabbit, a character she had loved since childhood and where she had made cherished memories with her parents.

    What begins as a cross-continental trip with his son and family soon unfolds into a deeply personal and solitary quest for Ken. As a husband and father, he struggles to connect with his son, confronting the unspoken emotional walls that make expressing grief so profoundly challenging. Through this journey, Ken seeks not just peace for his loss but also a way to reconcile the past with the present.

    I found Cottontail a beautifully delicate film with a thought-provoking narrative. As an expert in ageing, death and dying, particularly in Japan, I also found its depiction of grief realistic.

    Like Ken, many of us may feel disbelief or denial when facing loss. Memories of our loved ones can wash over us in overwhelming waves, catching us off guard in the most unexpected moments. Whether it’s a familiar scene that evokes a flood of emotions, a conversation with a friend, or even a fleeting dream, the smallest reminders – both joyful and painful – can surface at any time.

    The root of these challenges lies in navigating a world that no longer includes our loved one. Psychiatrist Colin Parkes described bereavement as a psychosocial transition, a profound shift requiring adaptation to a new reality.

    Grief, he suggested, emerges from the breakdown of the world we take for granted, the beliefs and expectations we hold about the future and our plans. When loss occurs, this framework collapses, forcing us to relearn how to live in a world forever changed.

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    Yet, grief is not simply about building a new life without the person we’ve lost.

    Over a century ago, the founder of psychoanalysis Sigmund Freud emphasised the importance of gradually detaching from the pain of loss and redirecting our emotional energy toward new relationships and pursuits. Today, in a society that often prioritises efficiency and productivity, there’s an unspoken expectation to “complete” the process of grief and quickly return to “normal”.

    But grief resists such timelines. As I’ve argued elsewhere, healing is not about moving on but learning to carry loss forward.

    This is poignantly illustrated in Cottontail: for Ken, scattering Akiko’s ashes in England is not about leaving her or the life they shared behind, but about learning to live with loss, weaving memories of her into his ongoing life.

    Cottontail trailer.

    Rewriting the book of life

    To grieve is like rewriting the book of our lives – a painstaking process of revisiting, revising, and reimagining a narrative that once felt complete. The concept of “narrative identity” captures this: not erasing the past but weaving it into a new story that continues to unfold, where love and loss coexist, shaping who we are now and who we will become.

    Rewriting life after loss is never a solitary journey – it’s shared with others. Ken’s grief is intertwined with his strained bond with his son, Toshi.

    Preoccupied with work, Ken had neglected their relationship, leaving Toshi yearning for deeper connection. Now, drowning in grief, Ken faces the challenge of reconciling his own pain while rebuilding their bond – a dilemma familiar to many experiencing loss.

    A key theme in Ken’s grief journey is the “stiff upper lip” mentality – an emotional restraint that stops him from expressing feelings or accepting support from his son. This stoic attitude, common among older men but seen across genders, ages and cultures, often comes at the cost of hidden stress.

    My research with bereaved older adults shows that suppressing emotions isolates individuals and blocks external support, making healing and connection harder.

    On his journey, Ken meets a grieving father and daughter who openly acknowledge their emotions and support each other. Their willingness to express their feelings shows the power of emotional literacy – the ability to recognise and communicate emotions.

    This highlights the importance of grief literacy not just for individuals, but for wider social networks. When people can understand and support one another’s grief, finding peace with loss becomes more attainable, and the process of rewriting life after loss becomes a collective endeavour.

    The film concludes with Ken chasing a rabbit by Lake Windermere for his granddaughter, joined by Toshi’s family. For Ken, the rabbit is not just Cottontail or a memory of Akiko – it’s a symbol of hope, a reminder that moving forward is possible, with renewed bonds and an enduring love.

    Chao Fang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cottontail review: how a man’s journey through grief mirrors our search for peace – by an expert in death and grieving – https://theconversation.com/cottontail-review-how-a-mans-journey-through-grief-mirrors-our-search-for-peace-by-an-expert-in-death-and-grieving-250198

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Shein could be a shot in the arm for the London Stock Exchange – but the fashion giant might not like the added scrutiny

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Isaac T. Tabner, Senior Lecturer in Finance, Director of the MSc Finance, University of Stirling

    T. Schneider/Shutterstock

    Fast fashion giant Shein’s mooted flotation on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) could be larger than any stock exchange listing seen in Europe in the last year. Coming at a time when the LSE is struggling to attract new listings, with some firms migrating to other exchanges, this could be a welcome boost. So it is perhaps unsurprising that the Chinese-founded company has been courted by the UK government, the LSE and those whose role it is to champion the City of London.

    Yet there are ongoing concerns about the controversial business model and practices of Shein, whose founder Chris Xu relocated himself and the company’s headquarters to Singapore in 2022. These were exacerbated when Shein’s lawyer struggled to tell the UK’s business and trade parliamentary committee whether the company uses cotton from China.

    Campaign group Stop Uyghur Genocide recently said it will seek a judicial review if the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), approves the LSE listing. And a “Say No to Shein” campaign has nearly 50,000 signatures on the activist website 38 Degrees. (Shein says it strictly prohibits forced labour in its supply chain globally.)

    More idealistic observers might question whether it is really a good idea for the UK to be courting such a controversial listing. The UK, after all, is a second-choice destination after Shein’s ambition to list on the US market failed – amid concerns about forced labour, among other things.

    So what are the claims against Shein? On environmental, social and governance (ESG) grounds the firm is controversial. Although Shein says it is working hard to reduce its environmental impact, its business model – supplying items cheap enough to be discarded after a single use – is at odds with a more sustainable society and thus problematic for the “E” in ESG.

    Some people add an additional “E” (for ethics) to the acronym. Concerns raised about the human and employee rights of workers in Shein’s supply chain and Shein’s reluctance to talk about them, even to a parliamentary committee, highlight both the “social” and the “ethical”. For its part, the company said last year it was actively working to improve its suppliers’ practices.

    If less than 10% of Shein’s equity is floated, which is the what company is proposing, it will still be controlled by its founders and majority shareholders as if it had remained a fully private company. An LSE listing would normally compel Shein to either comply with the UK corporate governance code, or explain why it did not. But dispersed minority investors with a combined ownership of less than 10% would have little or no say in the governance of a business that remained more than 90% owned and controlled by a few founding investors.

    Therefore, a listing of 10% or less would also raise concerns among minority investors about the “G” for governance. This is particularly true if their holding is involuntary, for example as part of an employee pension scheme. Shein said in a social impact report, however, that it has set up a sustainability committee to provide an extra layer of corporate governance.

    Shein’s lawyer struggled to answer questions on the source of its cotton.

    Given these issues, who gains and who loses from the proposed flotation? Shein itself could of course be among the winners. Common motives for a stock exchange listing are raising capital to finance new investment or giving founding shareholders an opportunity to cash out. Listing can also make mergers and acquisitions more straightforward and incentivise employees to stay with the company by offering preferential terms for buying shares.

    There is also no doubt that a listing would be presented as a positive sign that the UK is open and attractive for business. It would generate an initial windfall, and ongoing revenue for the LSE, plus substantial fees for financial and legal service providers based in the City of London.

    Downsides

    As a private company, Shein has kept details of its financial situation out of the public domain. If the LSE listing does go ahead (which is by no means certain), the company will be required to give detail on its legal and reputational risks, as well as its financial accounts.

    This will let prospective investors and others involved in the listing estimate a pricing range for the flotation. Recent headlines suggest a total equity valuation between US$50 billion and US$66 billion (£40 billion and £52 billion), yet if the listing does not go ahead it is impossible to estimate its market value with any reliability using information that is currently in the public domain.

    Shein’s apparent desire for secrecy, and its reluctance to publish detailed financial data, suggests that its founders and controlling investors may not be comfortable with the increased scrutiny that a listing will require. A 2023 report from the company, however, claimed Shein was committed to “continued progress and transparency” in terms of sustainability and its social impact.

    If credible revelations about controversial business practices such as forced labour or illegal working conditions emerge, this is likely to damage the stock price. No doubt outside investors would have plenty of incentive to scrutinise Shein’s activities – at least, more than the consumer buying a £10 dress for a night out.

    Perhaps a cautionary example can be drawn from the UK’s much smaller home-grown fast-fashion contender, Boohoo.com (now worth around £400 million after peaking at more than £5 billion in 2020). After an initial stellar performance, the firm’s stock price never recovered from reports in 2020 about workers in its UK supply chain being paid £3.50 an hour.

    An independent review published the same year found many failings in the company’s UK supply chain – Boohoo Group responded by pledging to implement the recommendations of the review in full. However, a BBC Panorama investigation indicated that it had not fulfilled its pledges. And at under 30 pence per share, its stock price is down more than 90% since the scandal first broke. (After the programme, Boohoo insisted that it had implemented “every one” of the independent review’s recommendations.)

    Shein’s listing – if it goes ahead – will open its inner workings to public scrutiny in a way that it has never experienced before. Already, people who have never engaged with fast fashion are discussing the business practices of the company.

    If awareness is the first stage of progress, such increased scrutiny can only be a good thing for those concerned about the darker side of the fast fashion industry.

    Isaac T. Tabner is a member of the following professional bodies:

    CFA Institute,
    CFA Society of the UK,
    Personal Finance Society and Chartered Insurance Institute.

    – ref. Shein could be a shot in the arm for the London Stock Exchange – but the fashion giant might not like the added scrutiny – https://theconversation.com/shein-could-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-london-stock-exchange-but-the-fashion-giant-might-not-like-the-added-scrutiny-249541

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How banks, lawyers and lobbyists in the west help post-Communist kleptocrats stay rich

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Heathershaw, Professor in International Relations, University of Exeter

    ‘Londongrad’ is a nickname for London that encapsulates the British capital’s popularity as a haven for wealthy Russians in the post-Soviet era. Drone Motion Stock / Shutterstock

    Kleptocracy, a term derived from the Greek for “rule by thieves”, describes a system where business success and political power are inextricably entwined. Political elites exploit their position to siphon off public wealth, entrenching their power through corruption, patronage and repression.

    However, kleptocracy is not just a system of domestic corruption. It typically involves a transnational network of political elites and so-called professional enablers who work together to extract wealth and project power.

    The ability of kleptocrats to loot state resources and evade accountability depends on an ecosystem of banks, lawyers, lobbyists, intelligence agencies and PR firms that provide the financial, legal and reputational tools to legitimise stolen wealth.

    Our new book, Indulging Kleptocracy, analyses many cases of such professional enabling in the UK for elites whose wealth originates in post-Soviet countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We uncovered examples of this activity using in-depth case studies that drew on court documents and correspondence with the enablers themselves.

    We found that, on countless occasions, British professionals have found loopholes in the rules, defeated new measures against money laundering, exploited the lack of transparency in universities and political parties and challenged the efficiency and effectiveness of the rule of law.

    UK properties worth tens of millions of pounds have been purchased for oligarchs and kleptocrats. And London corporate intelligence firms and lawyers have acted against journalists and researchers on behalf of their post-Soviet elite clients.

    Political parties, parliamentary groups and some of Britain’s top universities have even accepted donations from individuals associated with kleptocracy. In doing so, they have indulged kleptocrats much like the Catholic church once sold indulgences – offering absolution for a price.

    These services extend the wealth, status and influence of these elites into the UK and further afield. The phenomenon of “Londongrad” – a moniker to denote the British capital’s hosting of Russian and Eurasian oligarchs – is not merely about the amount of post-Soviet money laundered there. It incorporates a much wider offering of social and reputational goods, and political and security services.

    Indulging Kleptocracy was published on February 4 by Oxford University Press.
    John Heathershaw, Tena Prelec & Tom Mayne, CC BY-NC-ND

    Sustaining kleptocracy

    Professional enablers do not simply move money, and they don’t merely supply their services. They create the structures that sustain kleptocracy, embedding it into the political and economic fabric.

    The overall picture from the nine indulgences we study in our book, from “hiding money” (banking) to “silencing critics” (defamation law), is of regulators outgunned by the private sector. The professions are driven by market incentives, but their adherence to professional ethical standards is inconsistent.

    Enablers aren’t usually accessories to crimes. They may be acting downstream from grand corruption and are typically compliant with the law. But, in most cases, they appear to be either aware of who they are acting for or wilfully unwitting. They either justify their work by convoluted arguments or simply do not carry out effective due diligence on their clients.

    With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the British government introduced a large number of sanctions against Russian entities. It also passed two acts of parliament in 2022 and 2023 to counter illicit financial activity from Russia. But most enabling is not currently considered criminal and cannot easily be legislated out of existence.

    The issue of indulging in kleptocracy is indicative of a general problem of self-regulation in global financial centres, tax havens and other secrecy jurisdictions that arose with the end of empires in the second half of the 20th century.

    At that time, former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands and Cyprus were looking to broaden their economies into the services sector. This coincided with the end of the Soviet empire, when the wealthy and their capital were flying out of Russia and Eurasia.

    How to indulge no more

    Stopping the indulgence of kleptocracy requires moving beyond piecemeal reforms and treating it as the organised criminal enterprise it is. We suggest designating “kleptocratic enterprises” as organised crime and thereby implicating enablers as part of criminal networks. Across the world, there needs to be transparency from charities, universities and political parties.

    There should be more protection for investigators and whistleblowers. And governments could do more to stimulate the market in for-profit asset recovery.

    In 2020, US$740 million (£598 million) of real estate was seized in Spain from Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad. This case involved private sector expertise and followed civil society investigations.

    Without such action, the transformation to a world where kleptocratic wealth and influence sit easily within democracies will continue apace. Even the perception of a connection should be subjected to proper scrutiny: Tulip Siddiq, the UK’s Treasury minister responsible for anti-corruption, recently resigned after her family and alleged financial links to the deposed kleptocratic regime in Bangladesh were highlighted.

    These connections, which the government’s ethics watchdog found not to be in breach of the ministerial code, had been known for years before they became a story. But effective PR campaigns, clever legal arguments and complex financial structures mean that many cases of kleptocratic wealth are never exposed. It’s time to uncover what professional enablers do for kleptocrats.

    John Heathershaw receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. He is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition.

    Tena Prelec receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. She is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition

    Tom Mayne receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. He is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition

    – ref. How banks, lawyers and lobbyists in the west help post-Communist kleptocrats stay rich – https://theconversation.com/how-banks-lawyers-and-lobbyists-in-the-west-help-post-communist-kleptocrats-stay-rich-248973

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what that would mean for the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kshitij Sabnis, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Queen Mary University of London

    The US aerospace company Boom Supersonic recently announced it has successfully tested its latest aircraft, the XB-1. The company is developing a larger plane and aims to begin passenger flights at supersonic (faster than sound) speed within the next five years, and claims it already has orders from a handful of airlines.

    However, with ever-increasing scrutiny on the environmental consequences of flying, it is important to consider how supersonic aviation may affect the industry’s ability to meet its ambitious net zero by 2050 target.

    The latest test flight represents an important stage in the development of supersonic aircraft that minimise their characteristic “sonic boom” – the considerable noise generated as the shock waves travelling along with a supersonic aircraft pass over people on the ground.

    Boom Supersonic has carefully designing the aircraft shape to reduce this noise pollution. It did this by exploiting a phenomenon known as “Mach cutoff”, where air temperatures in the atmosphere cause shock waves to reflect upwards rather than towards the ground.

    Supersonic aircraft won’t receive certification to fly over land if they are too noisy, and overland flights are essential for their commercial viability. Indeed, failing to receive such certification limited Concorde’s routes to London-New York and Paris-New York, ultimately contributing to its demise. These recent noise improvements pave the way for Boom Supersonic to progress its larger 80-seat supersonic airliner, Overture. If all goes to plan, Overture will cruise at 1.7 times the speed of sound and could fly from London to New York in just 3.5 hours.

    Other organisations working on supersonic flight are making similar progress. US firm Spike Aerospace is developing a smaller business jet, for instance, while Nasa and defence and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin plan to begin test flying their supersonic X-59 later this year. There is every indication that planes like these are on their way back, more than two decades after Concorde last took to the skies.

    Concorde’s maiden flight back in 1969. It flew commercially between 1976 and 2003.
    Andre Cros / wiki, CC BY-SA

    Shock waves increase aerodynamic drag

    The key to understanding the environmental effects of supersonic aircraft is that, whenever its speed exceeds the speed of sound, shock waves form around the aircraft. These shock waves significantly increase the aerodynamic drag, and so more fuel needs to be burned to compensate for the drag force. Indeed, it is estimated that up to ten times more fuel needs to be burned by a supersonic aircraft compared to the equivalent subsonic airplane for every passenger mile.

    At supersonic speeds, sound itself is a drag.
    Chabacano / wiki, CC BY-SA

    The cost of this extra fuel is why typical aircraft speeds have remained pretty constant at around 85% of the speed of sound for several decades. It also leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions – as much as five to seven times more than subsonic aircraft.

    In fact, the situation may be even more stark. Supersonic aircraft tend to fly at high altitudes (Concorde flew at 60,000ft (18km) rather than the 40,000ft (12km) typical for most passenger jets) to take advantage of lower turbulence levels. This means their emissions tend to remain in the atmosphere for longer.

    Supersonic and sustainable?

    There are considerable efforts to align supersonic aircraft development with the aviation industry’s environmental ambitions. For instance, the new engines designed by Boom Supersonic are powered entirely by “sustainable aviation fuels” (Saf) which are direct replacements for traditional jet fuels that are made from renewable raw materials, often used cooking oil or crop residues. Due to its exclusive use of Saf, the Overture is advertised as having a zero-carbon footprint.

    A concept image of the Overture, the plane Boom Supersonic ultimately wants to build.
    Boom Supersonic, CC BY-SA

    In reality, the situation is more complex. Saf is often produced from edible crops and has been linked to deforestation – the total land required to power all of commercial aviation in this way is impractically immense.

    To address this longer-term problem, it is necessary to look towards alternative fuel sources. While hydrogen or electric power is being developed for regular aircraft, for now they aren’t developed enough to ensure a plane reaches supersonic speeds. Instead, one possibility is e-kerosene, a synthetic fuel generated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide using renewable electricity.

    Despite all these technological advances, a supersonic aircraft still cannot beat physics. Shock waves, and their associated drag, will still exist. So, a single supersonic aircraft will still produce considerably more carbon emissions than its subsonic counterpart.

    Beyond carbon emissions, contrails also have an effect. These are thin clouds of water vapour produced by aircraft exhausts, which can trap heat in the atmosphere the same way as greenhouse gases. These contrails are thought to have twice the impact of carbon emissions, or perhaps even more, so it is essential to take their effects into account. For now, we simply don’t know enough about contrails, especially at much higher altitudes, to definitively say how supersonic aircraft will affect the environment.

    Given the costs involved, supersonic aircraft will account for only a very small percentage of aircraft worldwide. The overall impact on the environment, in comparison to the tens of thousands of subsonic aircraft currently in operation, will be moderate.

    There is perhaps one environmental upside. The research and development activity making supersonic aviation more environmentally friendly (such as developments in fuel and propulsion technology) will likely yield technologies that transfer to subsonic aircraft too. This should help to address the much broader problem of environmental damage caused by the aviation industry as a whole.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kshitij Sabnis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what that would mean for the climate – https://theconversation.com/supersonic-passenger-aircraft-may-be-returning-heres-what-that-would-mean-for-the-climate-250116

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s quiet change to US position on Taiwan is all about the economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham

    The US state department has removed a highly symbolic phrase from its routine update on Taiwan. Its previous briefings said: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” This disappeared on February 13 2025.

    That’s not all. Donald Trump’s new government also stated on the same day that it advocated a peaceful and coercion free resolution to the Sino-Taiwan issue and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. These may seem like small tweaks to previous US positions, but they are sending a big signal to China.

    Beijing is concerned that the changes in the state department’s factsheet suggest that Trump’s government may be taking a stronger tack than was expected in being prepared to defend, or throw support behind, the island of Taiwan.

    The issue for China is that it sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, which it believes should return to Beijing’s orbit. Many Taiwanese see it as a separate state.

    China hasn’t ruled out the use of force to make Taiwan part of the republic and has even sent warplanes to defend the Taiwan Strait in the past week. China claims the waterway between the island and the mainland as its own, though this is disputed under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea.

    Beijing will be concerned that Washington’s updated wording on Taiwan might mean that the US is less likely to stand idly by if China invades the island than it might have expected. But what’s also interesting is why the US is warming up to Taiwan despite how aggrieved Trump has been by how Taiwan has “stolen” the semiconductor industry from the US.

    Trump’s eye on business

    Given Trump’s transactional, or business-first approach, towards politics, it is hardly surprising that Washington’s updated statement of support on Taiwan’s independence may be aimed towards enhancing US rather than Taiwanese interests.

    Many in Trump’s second cabinet such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are China hawks who view Beijing as a national security threat and advocate a more aggressive stance towards China. One major US concern is China’s growing influence in Asia, which challenges US influence within the region.

    Trump announces more tariffs on China in his first weeks in office.

    While Washington still appears to tip its hat towards a one-China policy, its updated statement on Taiwanese independence suggests that the US might adopt an aggressive approach to any move by Beijing. The US’s watching brief on the China-Taiwan conflict will mean Beijing will have to think hard before taking any measures towards reclaiming the island right now.

    A weakened Beijing?

    China’s president, Xi Jinping, had hoped to win international hearts and minds through the Belt and Road Initiative, its global trade plan to build an international network of countries receiving Chinese investment. But as China’s own economy is weakened by a real estate crisis that started in 2021, the aim of showing Xi’s success through economic means is not working out as hoped.

    The other avenue for Xi to enhance his reputation as leader is to bring Taiwan back into the Chinese fold. Since the Chinese Communist party came to power in 1949, various Chinese leaders have made reunification with Taiwan a long-term goal. So, if Xi could return Taiwan to China, he could be hailed domestically as one of the greatest leaders the country has ever seen.

    If China’s plan to reunify with Taiwan was already a major challenge, Washington’s altered stance on Taiwan independence and overt opposition towards coercion or the use of force makes this task even more difficult for Beijing. This could weaken Xi’s image and undermine his rule further (and may of course be part of Trump’s agenda).

    Prepped for the negotiation table

    The US and China had spent years in trade negotiations before US tariffs were imposed on China during Trump’s first term, culminating in the phase one deal in January 2020. Trump has already announced an extra 10% of tariffs on Chinese goods in his first month in office.

    It is plausible that these statements on Taiwan are aimed at enhancing Washington’s bargaining power in the burgeoning China-US trade war.

    In 2016, Trump accused China of “raping” the US with unfair trade policies, and imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods coming into the US. During his 2024 presidential campaign trail, Trump went as far as to suggests that tariffs on Chinese goods could go as high as 60%.

    Higher tariffs are bad news for China since the country relies heavily on exports for economic growth, especially on high tech “new three” products – electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar panels – to recover its ailing economy.

    However, if Beijing is forced to retreat from Taiwan, Xi might have to fall back heavily on the economy to maintain political legitimacy. When that happens, Beijing could be forced to offer concessions to the Americans, such as buying more US products, and to address how subsidies are used to aid Chinese firms to the detriment of US businesses in China.

    Overall, it’s likely that someone on Trump’s team has thought about all the implications of tweaking its Taiwan stance, and sees it as working out well for the US economy and, potentially, the Trump government overall. Taiwan is just a pawn in the game.

    Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s quiet change to US position on Taiwan is all about the economy – https://theconversation.com/trumps-quiet-change-to-us-position-on-taiwan-is-all-about-the-economy-250106

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 ways to improve security governance and prevent future illegal mining tragedies from happening

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Grant, Associate Professor of Political Studies, Queen’s University, Ontario

    After six months trapped underground, roughly 246 illegal miners were rescued at Buffelsfontein gold mine in Stilfontein, South Africa, in mid-January following a court order and intense public outcry.

    An estimated 2,000 miners had been trapped underground after police blocked food and water from families and supporters in an attempt to force them into surrendering for arrest. In total, 87 died, many from starvation or dehydration, according to civic groups. Some survivors reportedly resorted to eating cockroaches or the flesh of their deceased colleagues to survive.

    Illegal miners, known as “zama zamas” in South Africa, are people who enter mining sites without authorization to extract leftover gold and other minerals, often under dangerous and exploitative conditions.

    This incident highlights the current failures in security governance at abandoned mining sites. Rather than ensuring safety and protecting lives, the police response contributed to the scale of the tragedy.

    To prevent similar tragedies, security governance at abandoned or closed mining sites must be improved, and inclusive policies that address employment needs must be implemented.

    A dangerous occupation

    As more mining sites in South Africa and across the world reach the end of their life cycles, the number of mine closures will increase, along with the need for more effective security governance.

    The value of remaining minerals, combined with the dearth of alternatives to sustain livelihoods, has led some people to engage in illegal artisanal mining, despite the significant risks involved.

    While illegal mining provides financial support for households in impoverished regions, it also releases pollutants into the environment, disrupts and degrades water resources and supports criminal networks.

    South Africa is a prime example of these challenges. The country is home to an estimated 6,000 abandoned mines and 30,000 illegal miners. Security governance challenges are a major part of South Africa’s socioeconomic reality, and these challenges continue to grow despite government crackdowns in recent years.

    Current enforcement efforts are doing little to address the decades of poor post-mine closure management. South Africa’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Development Act requires mining companies to rehabilitate sites after closure, although compliance is sporadic, leaving communities and ecosystems at risk.

    With limited job opportunities in the formal sectors of the economy, many young people aged 15 to 34 have turned to informal sectors, including illegal mining, due to its low entry barriers. Compounding the problem is the government’s failure to legally distinguish between illegal and informal mining.

    5 ways to improve security governance

    The Buffelsfontein incident is a grim reminder that security governance cannot rely solely on policing tactics. Addressing the worsening socioeconomic cycle of miners trapped in abandoned and uncontrolled mines will require governments, companies and local communities to build stronger relationships before crises arise.

    Solutions must recognize that zama zamas work with no safety equipment and face daily threats from criminal syndicates who control mining territories. We propose five solutions that, together, address the socioeconomic and governance challenges:

    1. The Petroleum and Mineral Resources Development Act should be amended so mining permits are only granted when firms provide a mine closure security plan. This plan must include physical barriers like fencing and sealed shafts, with local communities involved in security enforcement. Funding would come from an independent relinquishment fund via annual contributions over the active lifespan of the mine to an interest-earning annuity held by a local financial institution and monitored by government and civil society.

    2. Security efforts should combine private security firms with community-based approaches, including hiring local residents in monitoring roles. This approach will foster trust, create jobs, improve security governance and enhance environment, social and governance (ESG) investment ratings.

    3. Drawing from successful models in other countries like Chile, drones, unmanned aerial vehicles and artificial intelligence monitoring methods can help monitor and secure high-risk areas. When used ethically, such technologies can reduce unauthorized mining activities.

    4. With unemployment in South African mining regions exceeding 40 per cent, governments and the private sector must focus on renewable energy, agriculture and entrepreneurship as economic alternatives for mining communities. Germany’s Emscher Park Project, for instance, has transformed coal mining regions into renewable energy hubs that create jobs and revitalize local economies. South Africa can also repurpose abandoned mining sites for such initiatives.

    5. As South Africa turns its attention to critical minerals, it has an opportunity to expand its green bonds to include funding for post-closure financial recovery for mining communities. These funds could finance infrastructure projects, vocational training and education so mining communities can transition successfully to other economic sectors.

    Lessons for Canada

    Canada is no stranger to the challenges of managing mines after closure. Across the Yukon, Northwest Territories and northern parts of several provinces, tailing pond failures have led to environmental pollution during the post-closure phase of the mining cycle.

    Investing in post-closure mine rehabilitation can prevent future harms to the environment, as well as enhance the human security of local communities. Green investors and sustainable finance funds like those informed by the Institute for Sustainable Finance must take a more active role in funding these efforts.

    The Buffelsfontein tragedy should serve as a wake-up call: security governance must evolve from punitive enforcement to proactive protection. Providing alternative livelihoods to illegal mining weakens criminal networks, removes dangerous working conditions, reduces environmental harms and saves lives.

    Though Canada is considered a mining superpower, it could learn valuable lessons from South Africa’s experience. Adopting our suggested solutions could help Canada address its own abandoned mine risks and ensure a more sustainable future for its mining communities.

    Andrew Grant has received grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

    Benjamin Ofosu-Atuahene has received funding in the form of an Ontario Graduate Scholarship.

    Olusola Ogunnubi has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. 5 ways to improve security governance and prevent future illegal mining tragedies from happening – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-improve-security-governance-and-prevent-future-illegal-mining-tragedies-from-happening-248741

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa has failed to deliver access to enough water for millions – a new approach is needed

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Tracy Ledger, Head: Energy and Society Programme, University of Johannesburg

    South Africa is one of only 52 countries that guarantee access to water as a human right. “Access” from a human rights perspective means that water is physically accessible, clean and safe for consumption, and affordable. Section 27 of the country’s constitution stipulates that everyone has the right to access sufficient water.

    But South Africa is not doing well on meeting the standards of a full human rights approach to water access. In a recent paper, I and my colleagues at the Public Affairs Research Institute’s Just Transition Programme set out the extent of this failure, and mapped out what needs to be done to rectify the situation.

    The Just Transition Programme aims to contribute to a successful climate transition that prioritises social justice, equity and poverty reduction.

    Part of our research method is ethnography – spending time in communities struggling to access water. We do this to learn what concrete changes are required to improve people’s lives, from their own perspective.

    Physical access to water for households has increased significantly since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994. Nevertheless, water quality and safety has declined over the past ten years. Almost half the country’s drinking water is considered unsafe
    for human consumption. Water service interruptions – sometimes lasting days – are becoming more common.



    Read more:
    Basic water services in South Africa are in decay after years of progress

    South Africa’s household poverty rate (the number of households who live below the upper bound poverty line) is now at 55%. We found that water is becoming more and more unaffordable for impoverished households. The result is that these families have to limit the amount of water they use. This worsens poverty and inequality.

    To solve this problem, the South African government needs to embrace a human rights approach to access to water, where people are given enough water to live a full life.

    What went wrong?

    The first problem is affordability. People cannot access water if they don’t have the money to pay for it, but most clean and safe water in South Africa must be paid for. Poverty is a key barrier to access.

    The United Nations special rapporteur on the human rights to water and sanitation has emphasised that it is the responsibility of the state to assess whether households can afford to pay for water, without sacrificing other basic essential items such as food. It is up to governments to take steps to make water affordable.

    The country’s Free Basic Water policy was originally intended to address this issue. It guaranteed impoverished households access to a free 6,000 litres of water per month. This is roughly 200 litres per household of eight people per day. However, in practice this policy is not a meaningful solution, for two reasons:

    • the amount provided is an average of 25 litres of water per person per day. This is way below the World Health Organization recommendation of a minimum water allowance of between 50 and 100 litres of water per person per day.

    • many millions of poor households are excluded from the benefit because of poor implementation of the policy by municipalities.

    This situation reflects the failure to create, implement and oversee a regulatory environment that is necessary to realise affordable access to sufficient, clean water for all South Africans.

    The policy failures

    Firstly, water policy – at both national and municipal levels – has failed to take a human rights approach. A human rights approach requires that access to sufficient, quality and affordable water is the starting point for all policy making and resource allocation decisions. This has not been the case.

    Secondly, access to water has been narrowly defined as making water physically available without considering affordability. Most water access policy in South Africa includes statements declaring that water must be affordable for everyone. Unfortunately, all of these policy promises have remained exactly that – just promises.

    Meeting the goal of affordability requires more from the government than stating that water should be affordable. The state must develop affordability standards – in other words, calculate a water tariff that everyone can afford – and monitor it. At the moment, there is no national government oversight of water tariffs and so the affordability policy is effectively meaningless.



    Read more:
    The lack of water in South Africa is the result of a long history of injustice — and legislation should start there

    The actual state practices of tariff setting and approval, particularly in local municipalities, have not translated any of these promises into reality.

    Thirdly, many households are denied access to even the 25 litres of free water per person per day, because municipalities don’t always implement the free basic water policy as intended.



    Read more:
    Why ordinary people must have a say in water governance

    Fourthly, the state has failed to acknowledge the contradiction between providing universal access to services, and requiring municipalities to generate enough money to cover 90% of their running costs. Tariffs for water have increased at rates well above inflation over the past 20 years. But in a very impoverished environment where many people cannot afford to pay for water, up to two thirds of South Africa’s municipalities have been classified as being in financial distress.

    There is a fundamental – and currently insoluble – conflict between the tariffs that municipalities must charge in order to maintain fully funded budgets, and the tariffs that could be defined as affordable.

    What needs to be done?

    These actions should be taken in the short term:

    • the free basic water allowance must be increased

    • the household indigent policy, which determines how households can access free municipal services like water, must be restructured.

    • affordability standards must be developed in close consultation with affected communities. This is the only way to set water tariffs that are based on what households are actually able to pay.

    • there must be oversight of the provision of sufficient, affordable water for everyone.

    In the longer term, these two additional problems must be solved:

    • municipalities are losing revenue from water, particularly from leaking pipes and other infrastructure

    • the local government fiscal framework requires that municipalities earn a surplus on trading services such as water. This must be changed so that municipal finances prioritise affordability of water instead.

    The ethnographic research team for this work was led by Mahlatse Rampedi, who holds a master’s degree and has ten years of experience, together with Ntokozo Ndhlovu, who holds an honours degree.

    Tracy Ledger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa has failed to deliver access to enough water for millions – a new approach is needed – https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-failed-to-deliver-access-to-enough-water-for-millions-a-new-approach-is-needed-247831

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Quantum effects make distant objects move together: new research finds this may happen with ripples in space

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Partha Nandi, Postdoc Fellow, Stellenbosch University

    An illustration of two black holes orbiting each other. Eventually they will merge, producing gravitational waves. Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library/Getty Images

    Galaxies, planets, black holes: to most people, everything about our Universe sounds and feels enormous. But while it’s true that much of what happens millions of light years away is large, there are also processes happening at the quantum end of the scale. That’s the branch of science which explains how nature works at very small scales – smaller than atoms. At this level, things behave in surprising ways.

    Theoretical physicists Partha Nandi and Bibhas Ranjan Majhi explored the possibility that gravitational waves – ripples in space caused by massive objects moving or colliding – might exhibit quantum properties. They shared their findings with The Conversation Africa.

    What are gravitational waves?

    Simply put, they’re like tiny ripples in space, similar to the waves you see when you splash water. They occur when really heavy things in space, like stars or black holes, move around or crash into each other. These ripples then travel across space and carry energy.

    They’re also far more than that: they are a method of communication. They carry information about massive cosmic events, helping scientists to “listen” to space in a way that wasn’t possible before their existence was confirmed.

    In 1916 the legendary theoretical physicist Albert Einstein published a groundbreaking paper that laid out his theory of general relativity. He described gravity not as a force, but as the bending of space and time caused by massive objects. This bending affects how objects move, just like a heavy ball placed on a stretched rubber sheet makes smaller objects roll toward it.

    Einstein accurately predicted the motion of planets, black holes, and even how light bends around massive objects – and the existence of gravitational waves rippling in space-time when those massive objects move or collide.



    Read more:
    Curious Kids: what are gravitational waves?

    It took nearly 100 years for Einstein’s hypothesis about gravitational waves to be confirmed. That’s when the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) in the US detected these waves for the first time. It took such a long time because despite how huge they sound, gravitational waves are minute: they stretch or squeeze space by a factor 1,000 times smaller than the size of an atom. Special tools were needed to spot them and LIGO’s cutting-edge technology was up to the task.

    You argue that some gravitational waves are quantum in nature. What does that mean?

    “Quantum” is the branch of science that explains how nature works at very small scales – smaller than atoms. At this level, things behave in surprising ways.

    For instance, tiny particles can behave like waves. They can also exist in more than one state at the same time, which is called superposition. Additionally, they can be mysteriously linked so that a change in one instantly affects the other, no matter how far apart they are. This is called entanglement.



    Read more:
    Quantum entanglement: what it is, and why physicists want to harness it

    Photons are a good example. These are particles of light, and scientists have proved that they behave in these “quantum” ways, such as being able to exist in superposition or becoming entangled with each other.

    Entanglement is a kind of connection but it’s much deeper than a simple link. When two objects are entangled, they share something called a quantum state. This describes everything about a particle or system. It’s like a blueprint, but instead of fixed details, it gives the chance of finding the particle under different conditions, such as its position or speed.

    When two objects share a quantum state, their behaviour becomes mysteriously linked. If you measure one object, the state of the other will immediately adjust to match, no matter how far apart they are. This is what makes entanglement so special and unlike anything we see in the everyday world.

    What did your research reveal?

    We hypothesised that gravitational waves could have both classical and quantum properties. The ones detected by LIGO so far follow classical behaviour, matching Einstein’s theory of general relativity.

    But the current LIGO detectors aren’t sensitive enough to detect quantum effects, and there’s been no way to know whether our hypothesis is correct. So we modelled a detector similar to the latest generation of LIGO, which has mirrors attached to arms that can move and vibrate.

    Classical gravitational waves cause the mirrors to move in specific ways, but in our study quantum gravitational waves – tiny ripples caused by particles called “gravitons” – affected the mirrors differently. They can make the mirrors’ oscillation modes become entangled: parts of the motion move together in ways that classical waves cannot create.

    To visualise this, imagine two wind chimes far apart, swaying in sync because of an invisible breeze. Here, the quantum gravitational waves are like that breeze. They make distant objects move together in a way that classical gravitational waves cannot.

    This suggests that at very small scales, gravitational waves may show quantum features, like entanglement, which can’t be explained classically. We’re not suggesting that all gravitational waves are quantum. However, this does not imply that all gravitational waves are quantum in nature. Instead, those originating from the early universe, approximately 13.8 billion years ago, may carry quantum signatures. These types of gravitational waves may encode information about the early universe, especially around the time of the Big Bang, and how they may have changed over time.

    Why is this an important finding?

    Confirming the quantum nature of gravitational waves bridges Einstein’s relativity with quantum mechanics, solving a puzzle that has challenged physics for decades: the difficulty of reconciling the principles of general relativity, which describes gravity on a large scale, with the laws of quantum mechanics, which govern the behaviour of particles at the smallest scales.

    This breakthrough could revolutionise our understanding of the universe. The quantum nature of gravitational waves could help advanced sensors detect faint cosmic signals and provide insights into the universe’s origins, black hole behaviour, and the fabric of reality. While LIGO has already made great progress in measuring gravitational waves, exploring their quantum side opens up a new field of physics.



    Read more:
    Gravitational waves: will the global south provide the next pulse of gravity research?

    It’s important to note that more research will be needed to test and replicate our findings in different experimental settings. We’re far from the only people studying these phenomena and we hope our findings will strengthen the efforts of South African institutions such as the National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences (NITheCS) and the Astrophysics Research Group at Stellenbosch University which contribute to gravitational wave astrophysics through data analysis, collaboration and theoretical work.

    Advances in technology will also play a key role in expanding quantum gravitational wave research opportunities. The LIGO-India observatory, due to become operational by 2030, will be one such possible experimental setting.

    Partha Nandi receives funding from the University of Stellenbosch. as a posdoctoral fellowship.

    Bibhas Ranjan Majhi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Quantum effects make distant objects move together: new research finds this may happen with ripples in space – https://theconversation.com/quantum-effects-make-distant-objects-move-together-new-research-finds-this-may-happen-with-ripples-in-space-245050

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s lurking assault on Canada rests on endless lies and irrational populism

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ilan Kapoor, Professor, Critical Development Studies, York University, Canada

    United States President Donald Trump has temporarily put his trade war against Canada and Mexico on hold after vowing to slap 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican imports, although he’s imposed tariffs on all steel and aluminum, including from Canada.

    He has also upped the ante by threatening to increase tariffs should Canada carry through on its own threat of retaliatory tariffs, with the possibility of further sanctions in the spring following a U.S. government study investigating ways to address the country’s trade deficits.

    This is nothing less than an attempt at the economic subordination of Canada by its giant and — until very recently — friendly neighbour and ally. But what makes Trump’s impending trade war even more absurd is that it is based on a series of lies.

    Trade, drugs, migrants, banks

    Trump has claimed that the U.S. has a “US$200 or $250 billion” trade deficit with Canada. The American government’s own data show that the trade in goods deficit with Canada in 2024 was US$55 billion.

    But when you factor in services (in technology or finance), an area in which the U.S. currently enjoys a trade surplus, the annual U.S.-Canada annual trade deficit falls to US$45 billion. And if you exclude energy exports, sold to the U.S. at a discount, the trade scales tip decidedly in favour of the U.S.

    Then we also have Trump’s claim that tariffs are needed to penalize Canada for allowing an “invasion” of drugs (mainly fentanyl) and undocumented migrants into the U.S.

    But once again, figures from his own government agencies show that only 1.5 per cent of migrants apprehended in 2024, and a mere 0.2 per cent of all fentanyl impounded at U.S. borders in 2024, originated in Canada.

    Finally, just hours before the American reprieve on tariffs, Trump raised a new red herring: that Canada does not allow American banks into the country. But many U.S. banks do operate in Canada, making up half of the country’s foreign banking assets.

    The grip of populism

    So why such lies? I suggest that we need to look to nationalist populism for an explanation. A deep, often irrational, emotional bond underpins this form of populism.

    Just as was the case in his 2016 election campaign, Trump’s 2024 campaign successfully tapped into people’s frustrations and anxieties over everything from high food prices to the housing crisis and rising precarious employment as he promised once more to “make America great again.”

    Tariffs featured prominently, with Trump bidding to put “America First” by punishing the country’s three largest trading partners — Mexico, Canada and China — for their alleged “unfair” trade practices.

    These types of seductive populist slogans unite people under a common banner, soothing their anxieties. But the accompanying peril is their dependence on the construction of national enemies to unify the nation. In 2016, Trump singled out Muslims and Mexicans. Today it is migrants, trans people and America’s supposed three main trading villains.

    Dangerous sentiments

    Trump’s populism is therefore built on irrational, if not dangerous, sentiments: blind fear, pridefulness, xenophobia, transphobia, racism and aggression.

    No wonder he engages in both blatant falsehoods and unabashed bullying. His lies are integral to his continuing attempts to paint the U.S. as a victim, despite its global supremacy in many areas, thereby justifying attempts at subordinating America’s putative “enemies” and even its friends. Populist sentiment, precisely because it is rooted in the irrational exuberance of pride and unity, cares little about facts, logic or veracity.

    A case in point is Trump’s affirmation that the U.S. is “subsidizing” Canada as a result of the trade deficit. The allegation contravenes any economic sense — trade deficits are the result of market-driven imports exceeding exports — yet its deployment here evokes the anxiety-producing prospect that Canada is ripping off American taxpayers.

    Populist passion trumps rational argument. Bluster whips up national fervour.

    Much ado about nothing

    This is also why Canada’s efforts to appease Trump have yielded little to date. Days after Trump’s election win, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick to visit him at his Florida estate in an attempt to reassure him on fentanyl and migrants.

    The Canadian government then announced a $1.3 billion border security package and improved state oversight of the production of opioids.

    In the days leading up to Trump’s tariff executive order, Canadian federal ministers and provincial premiers also frantically engaged in a public relations offensive (interviews on American TV, meetings with congressional lawmakers and Trump’s cabinet nominees) aimed at changing minds. All to no avail.

    Trump finally blinked only a few hours before the Feb. 4 tariff deadline. All it took was the offer by Trudeau of measures that, for the most part, had already been included in the previously announced border security/fentanyl measures. It seems the repackaged deal was enough to allow the president to declare a victory, while granting Canada a mere temporary reprieve.



    Read more:
    Trump’s tariff threats show the brute power of an imperial presidency

    So all in all, much ado about not too much. Lots of theatrics and brinkmanship, but little advancement, especially on the supposed main problem to be addressed — trade deficits.

    The Trump administration has basically stuck to its populist platform, providing more evidence that rational decision-making does not play a role.

    Quite the opposite, in fact: attempts to appease Trump appear to have been taken as proof that his threats work, and more demands are undoubtedly in store. That’s evident by the continuing prospect of tariffs in March and the possibility of more to come afterwards (including on steel and aluminum).

    Self-defeating irrationality

    Trump’s tariff war is senseless. If the measures go ahead, they could plunge Canada into a painful recession requiring state stimulus to support the economy and jobs, and retaliatory and counter-retaliatory trade measures.

    This may well be Trump’s intention — he has declared he wants to annex Canada by “economic force” — but it is likely to backfire. Any future trade war will harm not just Canada, Mexico and China, but also the U.S.

    Canada’s counter-tariffs target Red States, where Trump derives most of his electoral support.

    And given the American dependence on Canada for some 50 per cent of its crude oil imports, Canada’s nuclear option is to impose export tariffs on oil to the U.S. That would cause American prices at the pump to increase dramatically overnight and prove highly unpopular.

    In the longer term, then, no one stands to win as a consequence of Trump’s irrational populist policy-making. In the meantime, expect not much else from Trump’s administration than more unpredictability, brinkmanship, intimidation … and, yes, lies.

    Ilan Kapoor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s lurking assault on Canada rests on endless lies and irrational populism – https://theconversation.com/trumps-lurking-assault-on-canada-rests-on-endless-lies-and-irrational-populism-249256

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why the British army is so unprepared to send troops to Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kenton White, Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations, University of Reading

    Martin Hibberd/Shutterstock

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said that Britain is “ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary”.

    While reports suggest these would be “peacekeeping” forces, the reality is that true peacekeepers must be impartial. British troops placed to support Ukraine could certainly be seen as “partial”. And the positioning of British forces in Ukraine would fit the Russian narrative that casts Nato as the aggressor.

    Ukraine is not a member of Nato, but the goal of Nato membership is enshrined in its constitution. British forces involved in any sort of fighting in Ukraine would not enable article 5, which states that each member will regard an attack on any other member as an attack on themselves and assist it, to be invoked. Additionally, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said last week that European troops deployed to Ukraine should not be covered under article 5.

    The weakness with Starmer’s idea is that Britain does not have the wherewithal to provide enough troops, supplies and weapons to act as a real deterrent. This isn’t too dissimilar from the state of British forces when faced with war in Europe more than a century ago.

    In 1914 Lord Kitchener, then secretary of state for war, speaking of the cabinet’s decision to go to war in Europe, thundered, “Did they remember, when they went headlong into a war like this, that they were without an army, and without any preparation to equip one?”

    Small numbers would be nothing more than a “speed-bump” against a large attack, as the British Expeditionary Force was in 1914 and again in 1940. Poor preparation, small numbers and limited equipment meant their deployment was more an indication of Britain’s support, rather than real capability to fight a long war against a peer enemy.

    Britain is again in this position. Years of spending cuts have removed the ability of British forces to prosecute a war against a peer adversary for an extended time. The number of troops has fallen from 100,000 full-time trained personnel in 2000, to approximately 70,000 today.



    Read more:
    US says European security no longer its primary focus – the shift has been years in the making

    Britain also does not have the capacity to manufacture at the levels required for a modern war. Much will be needed for immediate capital investment, such as manufacturing capacity for arms and ammunition. Longer-term investment will be required for arms production, as will the reinstatement of supporting infrastructure, such as airfields and storage facilities abandoned after the end of the cold war, both within Britain and across Europe.

    There is no solution to the immediate problem except increasing the money available for defence. But Britain, and many other Nato members, have been unwilling to increase spending on defence, even though the current capabilities have been run down to such an extent that European nations cannot field a capable force.

    Defence spending

    US president Donald Trump has called for Nato countries to up their defence spending to 5% of GDP from the current Nato target of 2%. This would be very difficult to achieve in Britain’s current financial situation without spending cuts elsewhere.

    While it has been reported that defence chiefs are pushing for a rise to 2.65% of GDP, Starmer indicated he would resist pressure to increase spending above 2.5%.

    The last time the UK spent more than 5% of its GDP on defence was in the height of the cold war. The current international situation has already begun to shift into two distinct blocs similar to the east-west split between 1945 and 1991. However, the bipolar balance of the cold war has been replaced with an increasing instability, as displayed by Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine.

    Replacing lost capacity is almost always more expensive than maintaining it. Had the governments of past decades maintained the capabilities of the armed forces, the overall cost would most likely have been lower than the amount the nation will now have to invest to obtain the same level of defence.

    Each defence review since 1957 has led to cuts to the defence budget in real terms. Reductions in the military budget continue because, previously, nothing presented a sufficient sub-nuclear threat to the nation deemed significant enough to reverse them. Those cuts are now so deep that the nation is on the edge of being unable to defend itself, let alone project military power abroad in any significant capacity.

    The prime minister wrote: “We have got to show we are truly serious about our own defence and bearing our own burden.” This assertion is quickly undermined by the indication that he won’t increase spending anytime soon.

    None of the western members of Nato have shown any willingness to significantly increase their defence spending. Great Britain expects to spend £56.4 billion for 2024-25, amounting to approximately 2.3% of GDP. But this includes £0.65 billion in pensions and benefits, and £0.22 billion in “arms-length bodies” that do not contribute to the defence establishment in any practical terms.

    Britain and Nato have had clear warning since 2014 to correct the deficiencies of their defences. All have chosen to ignore the developing threat from Russia. The impression is that not only are we hoping for the best, but we are planning for the best too.

    Lord Tedder, chief of the air staff after the second world war, wrote, “It is at the outset of war that time is the supreme factor.” Three years into the war in Ukraine, and it is clear that Nato missed the opportunity to strengthen its defences in the early stages. It now faces a significant increase in defence spending simply to make up the shortfall from previous decades.

    Kenton White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why the British army is so unprepared to send troops to Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/why-the-british-army-is-so-unprepared-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-250123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Philly’s Chinatown has a rich tradition of activism – the Sixers arena fight was just one of many to preserve the neighborhood

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Vivian Truong, Assistant Professor of History, Swarthmore College

    Save Chinatown protesters take to the streets on Sept. 7, 2024. Zachary Kreines, CC BY-NC-ND

    Visitors commonly view Philadelphia’s Chinatown as a place to eat Chinese food and appreciate Chinese culture. But for longtime members of the Chinatown community, the neighborhood – home to over over 5,000 residents – is also defined by its tenacity and survival.

    Chinatown’s rich tradition of activism was on full display for the past two and half years, as residents and allies fiercely opposed the Philadelphia 76ers’ plans to build a basketball arena in the Market East neighborhood at the southern edge of Chinatown.

    A city-sponsored community impact study found that the arena could have resulted in the “loss of Chinatown’s core identity and regional significance.” It estimated that half of the neighborhood’s small businesses would have suffered due to increased congestion, potential rent increases and a new demographic less likely to patronize the area’s ethnic businesses.

    While the reason for the Sixers’ sudden decision to scrap the Market East arena plan remains unclear, the announcement in January 2025 came as a relief to Chinatown community members who felt they had averted yet another threat to their neighborhood’s existence.

    I’m a historian whose research focuses on Asian Americans, cities and social movements, and I’ve seen how urban residents take the existence of Chinatowns in major cities across the country – and even globally, from London to Havana, Cuba, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – for granted. Chinatowns continue to exist and thrive thanks to the residents and allies who fight for them.

    The fight over the Sixers arena was only the latest struggle in over 50 years of community organizing in Philadelphia’s Chinatown.

    Friendship Gate, erected in the 1980s, serves as a symbolic entrance to Philadelphia’s Chinatown.
    Jumping Rocks/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    A refuge from xenophobia

    Like other American Chinatowns, Philadelphia’s formed during an era of virulent anti-Chinese racism. The neighborhood was established in the 1870s as a refuge for immigrants fleeing the American West, where white railroad workers and miners declared “The Chinese must go!”.

    Among the earliest businesses were a handful of laundries and a restaurant on the 900 block of Race Street, just north of Philadelphia’s main commercial district.

    In the era of anti-Chinese immigration laws from 1875 to 1943, Chinatowns were associated with opium-smoking, gambling and prostitution. Law enforcement targeted and stigmatized the Philadelphia neighborhood as a center of vice and danger. Meanwhile, city and private developers had their eyes on Chinatown as early as the 1920s.

    In 1923, the Bell Telephone Company purchased additional real estate along the corridor for its new high-rise building and parking lot, displacing Chinese residents. In the same decade, the city used eminent domain to demolish blocks of housing to make way for the Broad-Ridge Spur connecting the Eighth Street and Vine Street subway stations. A Philadelphia Evening Bulletin article in 1934 declared Chinatown to be “a thing of the past.”

    As the city began to accommodate more car owners, Race Street was remade as a major thoroughfare to the Delaware Valley Bridge, now called the Ben Franklin Bridge. In 1926, the year the bridge was completed, the Bulletin declared that “The Delaware River Bridge has come and Chinatown must go,” echoing the xenophobic slogans that drove Chinese workers out of western states half a century earlier.

    But Chinatown persisted.

    As restrictions on immigration from China loosened after World War II, more Chinese women immigrated to the U.S. The neighborhood transformed from a bachelor society of aging workers to a growing intergenerational community of families.

    ‘Save Chinatown’ movement forms

    During the social upheavals of the 1960s and 1970s, Philadelphia’s Chinatown youth took inspiration from the Black Power and anti-war movements to fight for their community.

    In 1966, the city proposed the expansion of Vine Street into an expressway that would have demolished large swaths of Chinatown, including the beloved Holy Redeemer church and school. Established for Chinese American Catholics in 1941, Holy Redeemer hosted neighborhood meetings and recreational events as well as religious services. The Vine Street Expressway project was one instance of the national phenomenon of urban renewal, which aimed to clear and redevelop areas designated as blighted.

    The Philadelphia Chinatown Development Corporation nonprofit worked with Yellow Seeds, a group of radical Asian American youth who opposed U.S. racism and imperialism, and other Chinatown community members to fight construction of the expressway.

    These groups comprised the 1970s Save Chinatown movement. They held numerous protests, made frequent media appearances and used the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act to craft their strategy. They demanded an environmental impact statement, which, when issued in 1983, recommended a much smaller expressway than originally designed. Holy Redeemer was saved. The final plans also scrapped two off-ramps that would have cut through the neighborhood. Construction on the expressway was completed in 1991.

    Resisting a prison, baseball stadium and casino

    The Save Chinatown movement continued through the decades as community members successfully fought the construction of a federal prison in 1993, a baseball stadium in 2000 and a casino in 2008 – all proposed for sites in or bordering Chinatown.

    “The future of Chinatown is going to be a huge battle,” activist Debbie Wei stated in a 2002 documentary released after the conclusion of the baseball stadium fight a few years earlier. “We’re going to fight it, and my children are probably going to have to fight it as well.”

    ‘Look Forward and Carry on the Past: Stories from Philadelphia’s Chinatown’ (2002). Debbie Wei’s reflections on the future of Chinatown begin at 25:28.

    Her words were prescient. Her daughter Kaia Chau emerged as a key leader of the campaign against the Sixers arena 20 years later.

    Chau co-founded Students for the Preservation of Chinatown with fellow student leader Taryn Flaherty. The group organized teach-ins, galvanized Philadelphia-area students to join protests, and highlighted arena developers’ ties to local universities, including the University of Pennsylvania and Drexel University. By focusing on the developers, students made connections between the arena proposal and the gentrification of West Philadelphia, including the demolition of the University City Townhomes, an affordable housing complex whose residents were mostly Black.

    The movement against the Sixers arena became part of a multiracial, citywide fight against displacement. As Rev. Gregory Holston of Black Philly 4 Chinatown, part of the Save Chinatown coalition, put it: “In North Philadelphia, in West Philadelphia, in South Philadelphia, the same process is happening over and over and over again, where people are pushing and displacing people of color out of this city.”

    Philadelphia’s Chinatown neighborhood celebrates the Lunar New Year in 2024, the Year of the Dragon.
    Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Thriving intergenerational community

    Activists have also created new housing, educational and arts institutions to keep Chinatown a family-friendly neighborhood.

    The location where the prison was planned in 1993 is now Hing Wah Yuen, a 51-unit mixed-income affordable housing complex developed by the Philadelphia Chinatown Development Corporation – the same organization that led the fight against the Vine Street Expressway in the 1970s.

    After the plans for the baseball stadium were scrapped in 2000, the grassroots Chinatown-based organization Asian Americans United partnered with the arts and culture organization Philadelphia Folklore Project to found the Folk Arts-Cultural Treasures School in 2005.

    The K-8 school, located in the footprint of the proposed stadium, teaches Mandarin and emphasizes art and music classes that reflect students’ cultural background.

    More recently, recognizing the need for more “third places” for youth beyond home and school, student leaders Chau and Flaherty launched the Ginger Arts Center in 2024. The organization provides a recreational space and arts programs for young people in Chinatown.

    The community institutions that have sprung up in the wake of defeated development projects illustrate how Chinatown is not a thing of the past, nor is it solely a food and culture destination to be consumed.

    Rather, Chinatown is a thriving community that has long fought to survive, reinvent itself and determine its own future – one that carries the legacy of previous generations of resistance.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia.

    Vivian Truong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Philly’s Chinatown has a rich tradition of activism – the Sixers arena fight was just one of many to preserve the neighborhood – https://theconversation.com/phillys-chinatown-has-a-rich-tradition-of-activism-the-sixers-arena-fight-was-just-one-of-many-to-preserve-the-neighborhood-247549

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Firing civil servants and dismantling government departments is how aspiring strongmen consolidate personal power – lessons from around the globe

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University

    A leader bent on expanding his own power would see the government’s bureaucracy as a key target. Andry Djumantara – iStock/Getty Images Plus

    With the recent confirmations of Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – two of the most controversial of President Donald Trump’s high-level administration nominees – the president’s attempt to remake government as a home for political loyalists continues.

    Soon after coming to office for a second term, Trump aggressively sought to overhaul Washington and bring the federal government in line with his political agenda. He is spearheading an effort to purge the government’s ranks of people he perceived as his opponents and slash the size of long-standing bureaucratic agencies – in some instances dismantling them entirely.

    At the helm of much of this is businessman Elon Musk, who is not only the world’s richest man but also the largest donor of the 2024 election and the owner of multiple businesses that benefit from lucrative government contracts.

    Musk – and a small cohort of young engineers loyal to him but with little experience in government – descended on Washington, announced their control over multiple government agencies, fired career civil servants, and even strong-armed access to government payment systems at the Treasury Department, where the inspector general had just been sacked.

    This unprecedented sequence of events in the U.S. has left many observers in a daze, struggling to make sense of the dramatic reshaping of the bureaucracy under way.

    Yet, as researchers on authoritarian politics, it is no surprise to us that a leader bent on expanding his own power, such as Trump, would see the bureaucracy as a key target. Here’s why.

    Elon Musk, standing next to President Donald Trump, explains his theory concerning government bureaucracy.

    Dismantle democracy from within

    A well-functioning bureaucracy is an organization of highly qualified civil servants who follow established rules to prevent abuses of power. Bureaucracies, in this way, are an important part of democracy that constrain executive behavior.

    For this reason, aspiring strongmen are especially likely to go after them. Whether by shuffling the personnel of agencies, creating new ones, or limiting their capacity for oversight, a common tactic among power-hungry leaders is establishing control over the government’s bureaucracy. Following a failed coup attempt in 2016, for example, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdoğan fired or detained as many as 100,000 government workers.

    In the short term, greater executive control over the bureaucracy gives these leaders a valuable tool for rewarding their elite supporters, especially as diminished government oversight increases opportunities for corruption and the dispersion of rewards to such insiders. Erdoğan, for example, by 2017 had worked to fill lower-level bureaucratic positions with loyalists of his party, the AKP, to ensure the party’s influence over corruption investigations.

    In the long term, this hollowing out and reshaping of the bureaucracy is part of a broader plan in which aspiring autocrats usurp control over all institutions that can constrain them, such as the legislature and the courts. As we document in our book, “The Origins of Elected Strongmen,” attacks on the bureaucracy constitute a significant step in a larger process in which elected leaders dismantle democracy from within.

    Take control of bureaucracy

    The seemingly bizarre series of events that have transpired in Washington since Trump came to power are highly consistent with other countries where democracy has been dismantled.

    Take Benin, for example. Its leader, Patrice Talon – one of the wealthiest people in Africa – came to power in democratic elections in 2016.

    Soon after taking control, Talon created new agencies housed in the executive office and defunded existing ones, as a means of skirting bureaucratic constraints to his rule. The central affairs of the state were in the hands of an informal cabinet, initially led by Olivier Boko, a wealthy businessman considered to be Talon’s right-hand man despite not having any official position in government.

    Talon and his inner circle used this control over the state to enrich themselves, turning the country into what one journalist referred to as “a company in the hands of Talon and his very close clique.”

    Consolidating control over the bureaucracy was just one step in a larger process of turning Benin into an autocratic state. Talon eventually amassed greater power and influence over key state institutions, such as the judiciary, and intervened in the electoral process to ensure his continued rule. By 2021, Benin could no longer be considered a democracy.

    Purge civil service

    A similar dynamic occurred in Hungary. After governing relatively conventionally for one term, Prime Minister Viktor Orban was defeated in elections in 2002. He blamed that outcome on unfriendly media and never accepted the results as legitimate.

    Orban returned to office in 2010, bent on retribution.

    Orban ordered mass firings of civil servants and put allies of his party, Fidesz, in crucial roles. He also used the dismantling of bureaucratic constraints to pad the pockets of the elites whose support he needed to maintain power.

    As a Hungarian former politician wrote in 2016, “While the mafia state derails the bureaucratic administration, it organizes, monopolizes the channels of corruption and keeps them in order.”

    Likewise in Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez had his cronies draw up a blacklist of civil servants to be purged for signing a petition in support of a referendum to determine whether Chávez should be recalled from office in 2004; government employees who signed were subsequently fired from their jobs.

    More than a decade later, Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s current leader, would conduct his own purge of civil servants after they signed a petition to hold another recall referendum. After multiple rounds of government and military purges, Maduro was able to overturn an election he lost and jail his opponents, knowing full well the judges and generals would follow his orders.

    Benin’s leader, Patrice Talon, consolidated control over the bureaucracy as part of a larger process of turning the country into an autocratic state.
    Yanick Folly/AFP via Getty Images

    Foster culture of secrecy and suspicion

    Orban and Chavez, like Talon, were democratically elected but went on to undermine democracy.

    In environments where loyalty to the leader is prioritized over all else, and purges can happen at a moment’s notice, few people are willing to speak up about abuses of power or stand in the way of a power grab.

    Fostering a culture of secrecy and mutual suspicion among government officials is intentional and serves the leader’s interests.

    As a World Bank report highlighted in 1983, in President Mobutu Sese Seko’s Zaire, now Democratic Republic of Congo, the bureaucracy had been “privatized by the ruling clique,” creating a climate in which “fear and repression … prevented any serious threat from dissenting groups.”

    When leaders gain full power over the bureaucracy, they use it to reward and punish ordinary citizens as well. This was a tried-and-true tactic under the PRI’s rule in Mexico for much of the 20th century, where citizens who supported the PRI were more likely to receive government benefits.

    In short, when aspiring autocrats come to power, career bureaucrats are a common target, often replaced by unqualified loyalists who would never be hired for the position based on merit. Recent events in the U.S., as unprecedented as they may seem, are precisely what we would expect with the return of Trump, a would-be autocrat, to power.

    Andrea Kendall-Taylor is affiliated with the Center for New American Security.

    Joe Wright has received funding from the Charles Koch Foundation.

    Erica Frantz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Firing civil servants and dismantling government departments is how aspiring strongmen consolidate personal power – lessons from around the globe – https://theconversation.com/firing-civil-servants-and-dismantling-government-departments-is-how-aspiring-strongmen-consolidate-personal-power-lessons-from-around-the-globe-249089

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trans people affirmed their gender without medical help in medieval Europe − history shows how identity transcends medicine and law

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sarah Barringer, Ph.D. Candidate in English, University of Iowa

    The Lady and the Unicorn: Sight. Unknown/Musée de Cluny, Paris via Didier Descouens/Wikimedia Commons

    Restrictions on medical care for transgender youth assume that without the ability to medically transition, trans people will vanish.

    As of 2024, 26 U.S. states have banned gender-affirming care for young people. Less than a month into office, President Donald Trump issued numerous executive orders targeting transgender people, including a mandate to use “sex” instead of “gender” on passports, visas and global entry cards, as well as a ban on gender-affirming care for young people. These actions foreground the upcoming Supreme Court case of U.S. vs. Skrmetti which promises to shape the future of gender-affirming health care in the U.S., including restrictions or bans.

    History, however, shows that withholding health care does not make transgender people go away. Scholarship of medieval literature and historical records reveals how transgender people transitioned even without a robust medical system – instead, they changed their clothes, name and social position.

    Surgery in medieval times

    Surgery was not a widespread practice in the medieval period. While it gained some traction in the 1300s, surgery was limited to southern France and northern Italy. Even there, surgery was dangerous and the risk of infection high.

    Cutting off fleshy bits is an old practice and, potential dangers aside, removing a penis or breasts wasn’t impossible. But amputating functioning limbs was nearly always a form of punishment. Medieval people, including surgeons and patients, likely would not have had positive views of surgery that involved removing working body parts.

    Illustration from a Latin translation of Albucasis’ Chirurgia, depicting surgical instruments.
    Wellcome Collection

    Surgeons in the 14th century were increasingly thinking about how to perform surgery on those with both male and female genitalia – people now called intersex. But they thought about this in terms of “correcting” genitalia to make it more apparently male or female – an attitude still present today. Historically, the procedure was probably performed on adults, but today it is usually performed on children. Both then and now, the surgery often disregards the patient’s wishes and is not medically necessary, at times leading to complications later. For patients deemed female, excess flesh could be cut away, and for patients deemed male, the vulva could be cauterized to close it.

    There is, however, at least one historical example of a transgender individual receiving surgery. In 1300, near Bern, Switzerland, an unnamed woman was legally separated from her husband because she was unable to have sex with him. Soon after, the woman headed to Bologna, which was the surgery capital of Europe at the time. There, a surgeon cut open the woman’s vulva, revealing a penis and testicles. The account ends, “Back home, he took a wife, did rural work, and had legitimate and sufficient intercourse with his wife.”

    The story presents the possibility of medical transition, possibly even a desire for it. But given the limits of surgical techniques and ideologies at the time, these forms of medical transition were unlikely to be common.

    Transitioning without medicine

    To transition without medicine, medieval transgender people relied on changes they could make themselves. They cut their hair, put on different clothes, changed their names, and found new places in society.

    In 1388, a young woman named Catherine in Rottweil, Germany, “put on men’s clothes, declared herself to be a man, and called herself John.” John went on to marry a woman and later developed breasts. This caused some initial consternation – the city council of Rottweil sent John and his wife to court. However, the court did not see breasts as inhibiting John’s masculinity and the couple went home without facing any charges.

    In 1395, a transgender woman named Eleanor Rykener appeared before a court in London, England, after she was caught working as a prostitute. The court clerk wrote “that a certain Anna … first taught [her] to practice this detestable vice in the manner of a woman. [She] further said that a certain Elizabeth Bronderer first dressed [her] in women’s clothing” and later she took on work as an embroideress and tapster, a sort of bartender. The account is Rykener’s own, but the court clerk editorialized it, notably adding the phrase “detestable vice” in reference to prostitution.

    Detail of lovers in bed, Aldobrandino of Siena, Le Régime du corps, northern France. 13th century.
    British Library Catalogue of Illuminated Manuscripts/Sloane MS 2435, f. 9v.

    Rykener’s account reveals that there were a number of people interested in helping her transition – people who helped her dress, taught her how to behave, provided her employment and supported her choice of a new name. Community was a more important part of her transition than transforming her body. Based on the record, she apparently did not make an effort to create breasts.

    Another account appeared in 1355 in Venice, Italy, concerning Rolandina Ronchaia. While John declared himself male, and Rykener was very active in her transition, Ronchaia’s transition was spurred on by the perceptions of others. She argued that she had always had a “feminine face, voice and gestures,” and was often mistaken for a woman. She also had breasts, “in women’s fashion.” One night, a man came to have sex with her, and Ronchaia, “wishing to connect like a woman, hid [her] own penis and took the man’s penis.” After that, she moved to Venice, where, although she continued to wear men’s clothes, she was still perceived as a woman.

    Ronchaia’s account is unique because it emphasizes her body and her desire to change it by hiding her penis. But this was still a matter of what she herself could do to express her gender, rather than a medical transition.

    A long transgender history

    The accounts of medieval transgender individuals are limited – not only in number but in length. A lot of things did not get written down, and people were not talking about transgender people the way we are now.

    Historical accounts of transgender individuals are almost always in court records, which reflect the concerns of the court more clearly than the concerns of its subjects. The court was especially worried about sexual activity between men, which both overemphasizes the importance of sex in medieval transgender people’s lives and often obscures that these accounts are even about transgender people. Eleanor Ryekener’s account frequently misgenders her and refers to her as “John.”

    But it’s clear that transgender people existed in the medieval period, even when medical care was unavailable to them.

    A court document from the interrogation of John Rykener.
    Internet Medieval Source Book/Wikimedia Commons

    It is also the case that many of these individuals – Rykener is a likely exception – were probably intersex, and their experience would be different from those who were not. Intersex people were legally recognized and allowed some leeway if they chose to transition as an adult. This is starkly apparent in an account from Lille, France, in 1458, where a transgender woman was accused of sodomy and burned at the stake. She claimed “to have both sexes,” but the account says this was not the case. While being demonstrably intersex may not have saved her, that she claimed she was is telling.

    Gender transition has a long history, going even further back than the medieval period. Then as now, the local community played a vital role in aiding an individual’s transition. Unlike the medieval period, most modern societies have far greater access to medical care. Despite current restrictions, transgender people have far more options for transition than they once did.

    Medieval modes of transitioning are not a solution to current denials of medical care. But medieval transgender lives do illuminate that transgender people will not vanish even when the legal and medical systems strive to erase them.

    Sarah Barringer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trans people affirmed their gender without medical help in medieval Europe − history shows how identity transcends medicine and law – https://theconversation.com/trans-people-affirmed-their-gender-without-medical-help-in-medieval-europe-history-shows-how-identity-transcends-medicine-and-law-248559

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Understanding of marine ecosystems is alarmingly low – here’s why ocean literacy matters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma McKinley, Senior Research Fellow, Cardiff University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Understanding the relationship between humans and the ocean is crucial for making informed and effective decisions that will shape the future of our ocean. With this in mind, achieving lasting global progress in ocean protection requires prioritising ocean literacy.

    Right now, there is a disconnect between young peoples’ recognition of the ocean’s vital role in climate change, and the measures required to protect and restore it.

    My work as a marine social scientist focuses on ocean literacy. For me, knowledge is one of the most powerful tools to incite the action needed to save ocean health. The development of ocean literacy, through a range of education and engagement initiatives worldwide that embrace different types of knowledge, must be better prioritised.

    Only then can we equip young people with what they need to protect our ocean and to know who to hold accountable for its health.

    The ocean — stretching past the horizon, beneath the surface, and into the depths — remains largely out of sight, out of mind. But what happens within it affects us. Fostering stronger ocean literacy across society can help us mend this disconnect.

    Ocean literacy is defined as “having an understanding of the ocean’s influence on you and your influence on the ocean”. While not a new concept, ocean literacy has gained increasing popularity in recent years, partly due to its inclusion as a potential mechanism for change within the UN Ocean Decade, launched in January 2021.

    Young people must be central in efforts to restore ocean literacy across society. It is essential for them to understand the challenges facing the ocean, recognise who is responsible for addressing them, and advocate for more action. Enhancing ocean literacy among this generation encourages a greater appreciation of the ocean’s critical role in our daily lives, now and in the future.

    According to a recent global study engaging 3,500 young people from across 35 countries, a large percentage of young people express concern about the ocean’s health.

    The non-peer-reviewed report has been published by Back to Blue,
    an initiative of the thinktank Economist Impact and The Nippon Foundation, a grant-making organisation based in Asia.

    It highlights that 53% of young people believe that the ocean can protect us from climate change, yet 61% place a higher priority on protecting forests, tackling air pollution and freshwater scarcity. This shows that young people around the world have low ocean literacy.

    This echoes a growing number of national ocean literacy assessments. In 2022, a study of ocean literacy in Wales found that although 84% of people indicated that protecting the marine environment was important to them, 40% felt that their lifestyle had no impact on the sea at all. This highlights a concerning level of disconnect and lack of ocean literacy that could undermine our ability to tackle urgent challenges, including biodiversity loss, climate change and pollution.

    Swimming, sailing, even just building a sandcastle – the ocean benefits our physical and mental wellbeing. Curious about how a strong coastal connection helps drive marine conservation, scientists are diving in to investigate the power of blue health. This article is part of a series, Vitamin Sea, exploring how the ocean can be enhanced by our interaction with it.

    It’s all about accountability

    This is not a blame game. However, accountability ensures that governments, industries and people take responsibility for their role in ocean health, driving the transparency and action needed for meaningful education and engagement.

    The Back to Blue study found that while half (50%) of young people surveyed were concerned about ocean pollution, very few (17%) wanted increased responsibility from corporations and businesses.

    That study, which I advised on, also reveals that young people have high expectations of governments, conservation charities and local communities. Almost half (46%) said that governments should take stronger action to protect ocean health. Yet, expectations of the private sector – some of the biggest ocean polluters – were very low. Young people are misunderstanding where accountability for ocean pollution and the decline in ocean health lies.

    Green turtles have been listed as endangered since 1982.
    Shane Myers Photography/Shutterstock

    The lack of accountability slows progress and perpetuates a cycle of ocean neglect. But, engaging young people in ocean issues will empower them to demand more action and help develop effective solutions.

    In some places, ocean literacy is more embedded into students’ learning. More than 500 certified European blue schools are part of the Network of European Blue Schools. And the All-Atlantic Blue Schools Network has established ocean literacy projects and blue school ambassadors in schools in 16 countries, from Angola to the US.

    Education can help to engage young people. But only if education systems worldwide integrate ocean literacy from a young age and across all subject areas.

    By prioritising ocean literacy, we can empower young people to become informed stewards of the ocean, ensuring that they are not only aware of its vital role in our daily lives but also actively involved in changing the tide.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Emma McKinley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Understanding of marine ecosystems is alarmingly low – here’s why ocean literacy matters – https://theconversation.com/understanding-of-marine-ecosystems-is-alarmingly-low-heres-why-ocean-literacy-matters-248724

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: EastEnders at 40: how a ‘public service soap’ became a national institution

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jamie Medhurst, Professor of Film and Media, Aberystwyth University

    Thirteen million people across the UK sat down to watch a brand new soap opera that burst onto their screens on February 19 1985. The first character to speak on EastEnders was Dirty Den, as he came to be known, played by Leslie Grantham. Breaking into a dingy flat with fellow characters Arthur Fowler (Bill Treacher) and Ali Osman (Nejdet Salih), Den uttered the words “Stinks in ‘ere, dunnit?”, before discovering the elderly Reg Cox (Johnnie Clayton) close to death.

    Up until this point, the BBC had not had much luck with the continuing serial drama, or soap opera, format. Its first serial, The Grove Family, ran for only three years between 1954 and 1957, for instance. Although The Archers had been running since 1951 on Radio 4, and the Welsh-language soap opera, Pobol y Cwm, began in 1974 (and recently celebrated its 50th anniversary), the BBC lacked anything comparable to ITV’s Coronation Street.

    Launched in 1960, Coronation Street demonstrated that there was a public appetite for drama which focused on the everyday lives of ordinary people. ITV’s second soap success, Crossroads which ran between 1964 and 1988, and later between 2001 and 2003, underlined that point, as did Emmerdale Farm, which was launched in 1972, becoming just Emmerdale in 1989.

    When Channel 4 launched with a gritty, realist soap opera, Brookside, in November 1982, the BBC had to respond. With that channel’s extra competition, and cable and satellite television being discussed as the next big thing, the BBC’s audience share was in danger of decreasing to the point where people may have questioned the justification for the licence fee.

    And so EastEnders was born and became an immediate success. Over the years it’s had its ups and downs in terms of viewing figures, but has still endured. So, in a broadcasting landscape where there is now so much competition from streaming services and a variety of platforms from which we can now engage with “content” (“programme” can feel like an old-fashioned word now), how has the serial retained it popularity?

    Realism meets melodrama

    Part of the answer lies in the ways in which soap operas are constructed. They focus on people and peoples’ relationships with each other. This gives us the audience an immediate connection. We can all relate to one or more characters. We are given an insight into their family lives, their work, their feelings and emotions.

    Drama can entertain and provide escapism. At the same time, it can prick the conscience and stir the soul. It can deal with complex ideas and flights of fancy, gritty social issues and controversial topics. It has the ability to both engage and alienate audiences and provoke wider public debate. EastEnders has done all of these things.

    Soap operas can also run multiple storylines that overlap. This means that if one story ends – such as a character leaving, or a conflict being resolved – there are other stories to carry the audience along, while new storylines are developed.

    Another characteristic of soap operas is that they aim to balance realism with just the right amount of melodrama. Those of us who remember the early years of EastEnders will recall Christmas day 1986 when more than 30 million viewers tuned in to see Dirty Den hand divorce papers to wife Angie (Anita Dobson) after discovering she had been faking a terminal illness.

    Dirty Den hands Angie divorce papers on Christmas Day 1986.

    And, of course, any successful soap opera like EastEnders requires a team of skilled writers and believable characters. Such was the popularity of characters like Dirty Den that the BBC brought him back from the dead in 2003 after an absence of 14 years in a bid to halt declining viewing figures. Den did eventually die “properly” to mark the 20th anniversary on February 18 2005. And 13 million people watched as his wife, Chrissie (Tracy-Ann Oberman), dealt the fatal blow.

    Grit, grime and real life

    EastEnders has not shied away from gritty or social-realist storylines.
    Communications scholar Anthony McNicholas has described EastEnders as a “public service soap opera”, by which he means that the stories featured often reflect values and issues in contemporary society.

    Some of the early storylines revolved around teenage pregnancy, rape and drug-taking. There were characters who had HIV/Aids at the time the subject was being widely discussed in the UK.

    Baddie Janine pushes husband Barry off a cliff in a famous scene from New Year’s Day 2004.

    The soap has also dealt with domestic abuse. It worked closely with the charity Women’s Aid on a domestic abuse story in 2020. This prompted the domestic abuse charity, Refuge, to praise the soap for drawing the issue to peoples’ attention. It noted that EastEnders had done a great job reflecting on screen what is a horrific reality for so many families.

    Dealing with controversial yet realistic storylines has sometimes led to the programme coming into conflict with the regulator, Ofcom, for broadcasting certain harrowing scenes before the 9.00pm watershed.

    As EastEnders reaches middle age, there’s no sign of it slowing down. The anniversary promises to be eventful and engaging, featuring a live episode. And there will always be a place for relatable storylines, drama, passion and characters that we can love and hate. Happy Birthday EastEnders and here’s to the next 40 years.

    Jamie Medhurst has received funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), British Academy, and The Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. EastEnders at 40: how a ‘public service soap’ became a national institution – https://theconversation.com/eastenders-at-40-how-a-public-service-soap-became-a-national-institution-247060

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can adults learn to develop absolute pitch? Our research challenges a longstanding myth

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Yetta Kwailing Wong, Lecturer in Psychology, University of Surrey

    True Touch Lifestyle/Shutterstock

    Absolute pitch has long been viewed as a kind of musical superpower. It refers to the ability to identify or produce a tone, like an A or a C-sharp, without any provided reference point.

    With only 12 possible answers, naming the pitch of a tone may seem easy. However, it is somehow incredibly difficult for most musicians, including the professionally trained ones.

    Adding to this mystery, for gifted musicians and composers such as Mozart, Chopin, and Beethoven, absolute pitch can feel as intuitive as recognising the colour red, reinforcing the widespread belief that absolute pitch – also referred to by many people as perfect pitch – is a rare, exceptional talent.

    For decades, many scientists and musicians believed that you either had absolute pitch – or you didn’t. If you are not the lucky ones who carry special genes and have started musical training during early childhood, you were thought to have missed the opportunity entirely. Our new research, however, suggests this isn’t actually true.

    Our research adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that absolute pitch remains a learnable skill in adulthood – many adults can train their way to levels of performance comparable to individuals who naturally possess this skill in everyday life.

    Intense training

    To help adults progressively learn to identify tones, our research team designed an eight-week online training programme. On average, 12 musicians dedicated 21 hours and completed over 15,000 pitch naming exercises. These involved hearing a piano or guitar note (within three octaves) for 800 milliseconds and having to name it within a certain amount of time. The participants had to complete 25 hours of training online over eight weeks. The training included a total of 288 training levels, with 24 levels for each additional pitch.

    The training required really hard work – participants did not only learn to name the tones accurately, but also very quickly. Over time, the difficulty ramped up as more tones were introduced, and the time allowed for response was further tightened.

    We carefully avoided common pitfalls in previous studies. By including a wide range of tones, we ensured that they learned to identify the pitch class – the fundamental quality that makes a note sound like a C, D or E, regardless of whether the tone sounds high or low.

    This approach truly captures the essence of absolute pitch. We eliminated feedback during testing, so participants could not rely on their working memory as a crutch. To rule out “lucky guessing,” we required participants to repeatedly demonstrate their abilities with strict criteria for success.

    Effort vs talent

    By the end of the training, participants had made remarkable progress. On average, they could correctly identify more than seven musical notes almost every time, taking as little as one or two seconds to respond. Their ability to identify the correct notes more than doubled.

    Even when they made mistakes, their responses got 43% closer to the correct answer. These impressive gains were also found for notes they hadn’t been specifically trained to recognise, suggesting they were learning something deeper about pitch perception.

    Notably, two participants mastered all 12 pitches with performance comparable to that of possessors of absolute pitch in the real world.

    What made learning absolute pitch in adulthood possible now, given a century of unconvincing findings? The human brain and perceptual systems are highly adaptable, and this holds well into adulthood. Through practice and feedback, adults can improve their ability to recognise and distinguish sensory inputs, such as visual patterns and speech sounds.

    Our training takes advantage of this amazing potential of the human perceptual system to learn. What we have done differently from previous efforts was ultimately that we designed an effective learning experience, including the right learning materials, effective feedback and changes in difficulty for each learner – all while making it fun.

    Together with motivated learners, learning absolute pitch in adulthood was made possible.

    Music training and beyond

    The fact that absolute pitch was previously thought to be locked behind a genetic lottery or early musical exposure has sadly discouraged countless musicians and music educators from learning or teaching it.

    Our findings offer an encouraging counter-narrative – absolute pitch is not just for the lucky few. With a well-designed learning tool, it is a skill that many adults can cultivate.

    More broadly, our findings demonstrate how science can challenge deep-rooted assumptions about human abilities. Instead of being fixed by biology or early experiences, many skills can still be developed and improved well into adulthood.

    This shift in understanding could inspire us to adopt a growth mindset, showing that it is never too late to learn and improve, no matter what you think might hold you back.

    So, if you have ever dreamed of identifying musical notes like a virtuoso, it is not too late to work on it now.

    Yetta Kwailing Wong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can adults learn to develop absolute pitch? Our research challenges a longstanding myth – https://theconversation.com/can-adults-learn-to-develop-absolute-pitch-our-research-challenges-a-longstanding-myth-248907

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Oscar-nominated screenwriters attempt to craft authentic dialogue, dialects and accents

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris C. Palmer, Professor of English, Kennesaw State University

    Editors deployed AI to make the Hungarian dialogue in ‘The Brutalist’ sound more authentic. A24/TNS

    The 2025 slate of Oscar nominees recognizes many writers, directors and actors whose scripts and performances don’t necessarily reflect their own cultural and linguistic backgrounds.

    Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, both white, co-wrote “Sing Sing,” a story about rehabilitation through art in a maximum security prison where the characters are almost entirely people of color.

    Meg LeFauve has now earned her second nomination for penning a script that gives voice the gamut of emotions surging through a young girl in “Inside Out 2.” She’s in her 50s.

    The director of “Conclave,” Edward Berger, its writer, Peter Straughan, and its lead actor, Ralph Fiennes, are all self-proclaimed lapsed Catholics. Yet they brought to life a political thriller set in the Vatican.

    “The Brutalist” was written entirely in English, but much of the film’s dialogue is in Hungarian, with two leads who are not native Hungarian speakers.

    Most screenwriters endeavor to craft characters outside their own backgrounds and experiences. But concerns about authentic language representation and cultural accuracy persist, and accusations of cultural appropriation and lazy research are commonplace.

    “Emilia Pérez,” for example, has been heavily criticized not only for unrealistic portrayals of gender transition but also for inauthentic depictions of Mexican culture and accents.

    The film’s director, Jacques Audiard, has even claimed his lack of knowledge of Spanish has been an artistic benefit. He says it gives him “a quality of detachment” to emphasize “emotion” rather than “focus too strongly on the accent, the punctuation.”

    His lack of interest in precise depictions of language and culture contrasts sharply with our recent research, which shows ample interest from practicing screenwriters in accurately representing dialects and accents in scripts.

    Wanting to get it right

    We surveyed over 50 current members of the Writers Guild of America, and they broadly told us that sensitivity to linguistic representation has increased since the 2010s.

    Several commented that there’s been more commitment to hiring writers who represent the characters’ voices and backgrounds. There’s also more “freedom to include diverse characters and worlds… but a commensurate emphasis on authenticity and a higher bar for what that means,” as one writer explained.

    “Authenticity” was consistently cited in our survey as a principal consideration when writing dialogue. Other concerns included scripts’ intelligibility, historical accuracy and believability.

    In most cases, screenwriters aspire to write dialogue that sounds authentic. But it’s not easy – and often requires collaboration to get it right. Writers noted how they’ll adjust their dialogue based on production needs, such as budgetary concerns, input from actors and directors, and feedback from dialect coaches and historical consultants.

    For example, spec scripts – or noncommissioned film scripts – are written before any casting or production decisions are made. The dialogue in these scripts will likely change once actors and other creatives are attached to the project.

    Recipes for capturing linguistic nuance

    In our study, we also reviewed screenwriting manuals published as far back as 1946.

    Manuals didn’t begin to raise explicit ethical concerns, such as the use of inaccurate linguistic stereotypes in dialogue, until the 1980s. For example, many older films, such as “Gone with the Wind,” often used phonetic spelling in their scripts, with features such as g-dropping – “quittin’” for “quitting” – to mark only the speech of lower-class or racially marginalized characters, despite the fact that all people, regardless of background, have accents.

    Susan Sarandon, Sean Penn and Tim Robbins look over a script on the set of the death row drama ‘Dead Man Walking,’ which was set in Louisiana.
    Demmie Todd/Fotos International via Getty Images

    Writing in heavy phonetics is generally discouraged in modern screenwriting.

    There are practical reasons for this. Scripts are read before they’re seen and therefore must first appeal to the not so general audience of executives who buy them. As one writer explained, “My script is targeted towards them.”

    Take “Trainspotting.” Irvine Welsh’s 1993 novel about a group of heroin addicts in Edinburgh was written with heavy phonetics to capture the characters’ Scottish dialect: “ah wouldnae git tae watch it.” But the screenplay uses lines without phonetics, such as, “I wouldn’t have bothered.”

    In this respect, there’s a notable difference in novels and their respective adaptations. One surveyed writer avoids dialectal markers and will “default to standard American English unless there is a reason not to.”

    That doesn’t mean the actors in “Trainspotting” should speak in an American English accent. Instead, screenwriters might simply indicate the use of language and dialect when describing the scene in a script or, as one surveyed screenwriter explained, “make a note in the parenthetical that ‘Brynn speaks with a heavy West Virginia accent’” to flag the work that “the actor, dialogue coach, and writer will need to do together.”

    This method is employed in “The Brutalist.” The film is partly in Hungarian, but writer and director Brady Corbet and his Norwegian co-writer, Mona Fastvold, wrote the Hungarian dialogue in standard English. They then used parentheticals to indicate any non-English delivery of dialogue. The film’s stars, Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones, worked with a dialect coach to hone their accents.

    “Anora,” which tells the story of an exotic dancer in a whirlwind romance, features characters who speak Russian, Armenian and English with varying degrees of fluency. Even though the characters frequently switch between these languages, the entire script is in unbroken English. Code-switching is simply marked with “Russian,” “Armenian” or “English” in the script before a piece of dialogue.

    ‘Anora’ featured characters who switched between Russian, Armenian and English.

    But limiting oneself to standard U.S. English restricts diversity in the written dialogue itself. Some writers may want to use dialect or language to convey character authenticity on the page.

    Our survey respondents described this as “flavor” – the strategic use of dialectal words or phrases to create distinct voices, with limited phonetics. Jesse Eisenberg, in his Oscar-nominated script “A Real Pain,” lightly blends American English with occasional Yiddish words to great effect: “… landed in Galveston for some fakakta reason,” or “crazy” reason.

    AI chimes in

    Attempts at authenticity can become muddied when AI gets involved.

    When making “The Brutalist,” Corbet controversially used AI technology to refine the movie’s Hungarian dialogue.

    Some questioned the film’s authenticity due to the use of AI, arguing that nothing can be authentic if it’s achieved artificially.

    But the film’s creators, including editor and native Hungarian speaker Dávid Jancsó, defended this choice. They argued the technology actually enhanced the language’s authenticity, particularly since Hungarian’s system of vowels and consonants is especially hard for nonnative speakers to capture accurately.

    Whether writers use phonetics or standard language, and whether producers use AI or dialect coaches, questions of ethics and linguistic authenticity will remain. It’s important to research language choices and dialogue, and to consult the diverse speakers portrayed in scripts.

    These are among the many essential checks and balances that are becoming bigger parts of the filmmaking process.

    Mitchell Olson is affiliated with Carter Stanton, Creative Executive at Brookstreet Pictures, which was a co-producer of “The Brutalist.” He’s also an acquaintance of Meg LeFauve. He has no stake in the performance of their work outside of having professional relationships.

    Chris C. Palmer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Oscar-nominated screenwriters attempt to craft authentic dialogue, dialects and accents – https://theconversation.com/how-oscar-nominated-screenwriters-attempt-to-craft-authentic-dialogue-dialects-and-accents-247658

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Deporting millions of immigrants would shock the US economy, increasing housing, food and other prices

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Francisco I. Pedraza, Professor of political scinece, Arizona State University

    Immigrant farmworkers pick strawberries in California in April 2024. Visions of America/Joe Sohm/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    One of President Donald Trump’s major promises during the 2024 presidential campaign was to launch mass deportations of immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization.

    The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has said that, since January 2025, it is detaining and planning to deport 600 to 1,100 immigrants a day. That marks an increase from the average 282 immigration arrests that happened each day in September 2024 under the Biden administration.

    The current trend would place the Trump administration on track to apprehend 25,000 immigrants in Trump’s first month in office. On an annual basis, this is about 300,000 – far from the “millions and millions” of immigrants Trump promised to deport.

    A lack of funding, immigration officers, immigration detention centers and other resources has reportedly impeded the administration’s deportation work.

    The Trump administration is seeking US$175 billion from Congress to use for the next four years on immigration enforcement, Axios reported on Feb. 11, 2025.

    If Trump does make good on his promise of mass deportations, our research shows that removing millions of immigrants would be costly for everyone in the U.S., including American citizens and businesses.

    Immigrant farmworkers protest in New York City in May 2022.
    Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

    Food costs will increase

    One important factor is that mass deportations would weaken key industries in the U.S. that rely on immigrant workers, including those living in the U.S. illegally.

    Overall, immigrants without legal authorization make up about 5% of the total U.S. workforce.

    But that overall percentage doesn’t reflect these immigrants’ concentrated presence within various industries. Approximately half of U.S. farmworkers are living in the country without legal authorization, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    Some of these immigrant farmworkers are skilled supervisors who make decisions about planting and harvesting. Others know how to use and maintain tractors, loaders, diggers, rakers, fertilizer sprayers, irrigation systems, and other machines crucial to farm operations.

    If those workers were to be suddenly removed from the country, Americans would see an increase in food costs, including what they spend on groceries and at restaurants.

    With fewer available workers to pick fruits and vegetables and prepare the food for shipment and distribution, the domestic production of food could decrease, leading to higher costs and more imports.

    National estimates of the restaurant and food preparation workforce, meanwhile, indicate that between 10% and 15% of those workers are immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

    Past state-level immigration enforcement policies offer an idea of what could happen at the national level if Trump were to carry out widespread deportations.

    For example, a 2011 Alabama law called HB-56 directed local police officers to investigate the immigration status of drivers stopped for speeding. It also prohibited landlords from renting properties to immigrants who do not have legal authorization to work or live in the country. That law and its resulting effects prompted some Alabama-based immigrant workers to leave the state following workplace raids.

    Their departure wound up costing the state an estimated $2.3 billion to $10.8 billion loss in Alabama’s annual gross domestic product due to the loss of workers and economic output.

    Other industries that rely on immigrants

    Part of the challenge of mass deportations for industries like construction, nearly a quarter of whose workers are living without legal authorization, is that their workforce is highly skilled and not easily replaced. Immigrant workers are particularly involved in home construction and specialize in such tasks as ceiling and flooring installation as well as roofing and drywall work.

    Fewer available workers would mean slower home construction, which in turn would make housing more expensive, further compounding existing problems of housing supply and affordability.

    Shocks from deportations would also slow commercial and public infrastructure construction. Six construction workers, for example, died in April 2024 in the sudden collapse of the Baltimore Key Bridge in Maryland. All of them were Latino immigrants living in the U.S. without legal documentation.

    Examining the arguments

    Trump administration officials and other politicians have argued that deporting large numbers of immigrants would help the country save money, since fewer people will use federal and state funds by attending public schools or receiving temporary shelter.

    Trump said in November 2024 that there is “no price tag” for large-scale deportations.

    “It’s not a question of price tag,” Trump said. “We have no choice. When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries, and now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here,” Trump told NBC News.

    Trump and his supporters also argue that deporting immigrants would mean more jobs for American workers.

    But there is compelling evidence to the contrary.

    First, immigrants are filling labor shortages and doing jobs that many Americans don’t want to do, ones that might be unsafe or poorly paid.

    Even if Americans were willing to do those jobs, there simply aren’t enough Americans in the workforce to fill existing labor vacuums, let alone an enlarged one following deportations.

    Second, for employers, having fewer workers in the country translates into higher wages, which in turn means less capital to adapt and grow. For businesses based on consumer debt – think mortgages, car loans and credit cards – deportations would disrupt the financial sector by removing responsible borrowers who make consistent payments.

    Third, immigrants living without legal documentation in the U.S. pay more than $96 billion in federal, state and local taxes per year and consume fewer public benefits than citizens.

    Immigrants without legal authorization are not eligible for Social Security benefits and can’t enroll in Medicare or many other safety net programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

    A Guatemalan immigrant worker buys pipes for a plumbing job on a house remodel in New Philadelphia, Ohio, on Jan. 27, 2025.
    Rebecca Kiger for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    The bottom line

    In other words, people who are living and working in the U.S. without legal authorization are helping to pay, through taxes, the costs of caring for Americans as they age and begin to draw on the nation’s retirement and health care programs.

    The burden from recent inflation notwithstanding, an economy supported by immigrants living illegally in the U.S. protects Americans.

    The U.S. would be unable to dodge the economic shocks and high costs that mass deportations would bring about.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Deporting millions of immigrants would shock the US economy, increasing housing, food and other prices – https://theconversation.com/deporting-millions-of-immigrants-would-shock-the-us-economy-increasing-housing-food-and-other-prices-245342

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why community pharmacies are closing – and what to do if your neighborhood location shutters

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lucas A. Berenbrok, Associate Professor of Pharmacy and Therapeutics, University of Pittsburgh

    Neighborhood pharmacies are rapidly shuttering.

    Not long ago, Walgreens, one of the nation’s biggest pharmacy chains, announced plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years. That’s part of a larger trend that has seen nearly 7,000 pharmacy locations close since 2019, with more expected in the coming years.

    Many community pharmacies are struggling to stay open due to an overburdened workforce, shrinking reimbursement rates for prescription drugs and limited opportunities to bill insurers for services beyond dispensing medications.

    As trained pharmacists who advocate for and take care of patients in community settings, we’ve witnessed this decline firsthand. The loss of local pharmacies threatens individual and community access to medications, pharmacist expertise and essential public health resources.

    The changing role of pharmacies

    Community pharmacies – which include independently owned, corporate-chain and other retail pharmacies in neighborhood settings – have changed a lot over the past decades. What once were simple medication pickup points have evolved into hubs for health and wellness. Beyond dispensing prescriptions, pharmacists today provide vaccinations, testing and treatment for infectious diseases, access to hormonal birth control and other clinical services they’re empowered to provide by federal and state laws.

    Given their importance, then, why have so many community pharmacies been closing?

    There are many reasons, but the most important is reduced reimbursement for prescription drugs. Most community pharmacies operate under a business model centered on dispensing medications that relies on insurer reimbursements and cash payments from patients. Minor revenue comes from front-end sales of over-the-counter products and other items.

    However, pharmacy benefit managers – companies that manage prescription drug benefits for insurers and employers – have aggressively cut reimbursement rates in an effort to lower drug costs in recent years. As a result, pharmacists often have to dispense prescription drugs at very low margins or even at a loss. In some cases, pharmacists are forced to transfer prescriptions to other pharmacies willing to absorb the financial hit. Other times, pharmacists choose not to stock these drugs at all.

    And it’s not just mom-and-pop operations feeling the pinch. Over the past four years, the three largest pharmacy chains have announced plans to close hundreds of stores nationwide. CVS kicked off the trend in 2021 by announcing plans to close 900 pharmacy locations. In late 2023, Rite Aid said that thousands of its stores would be at risk for closure due to bankruptcy. And late in 2024, Walgreens announced its plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years.

    To make matters worse, pharmacists, like many other health care providers, have been facing burnout due to high stress and the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, pharmacy school enrollment has declined, worsening the workforce shortage just as an impending shortfall of primary care physicians looms.

    Why pharmacy accessibility matters

    The increasing closure of community pharmacies has far-reaching consequences for millions of Americans. That’s because neighborhood pharmacies are one of the most accessible health care locations in the country, with an estimated 90% of Americans living within 5 miles of one.

    However, research shows that “pharmacy deserts” are more common in marginalized communities, where people need accessible health care the most. For example, people who live in pharmacy deserts are also more likely to have a disability that makes it hard or impossible to walk. Many of these areas are also classified as medically underserved areas or health professional shortage areas. As pharmacy closures accelerate, America’s health disparities could get even worse.

    So if your neighborhood pharmacy closes, what should you do?

    While convenience and location matter, you might want to consider other factors that can help you meet your health care needs. For example, some pharmacies have staff who speak your native language, independent pharmacy business owners may be active in your community, and many locations offer over-the-counter products like hormonal contraception, the overdose-reversal drug naloxone and hearing aids.

    You may also consider locations – especially corporate-owned pharmacies – that also offer urgent care or primary care services. In addition, most pharmacies offer vaccinations, and some offer test-and-treat services for infectious diseases, diabetes education and help with quitting smoking.

    What to ask if your pharmacy closes

    If your preferred pharmacy closes and you need to find another one, keep the following questions in mind:

    • What will happen to your old prescriptions? When a pharmacy closes, another pharmacy may buy its prescriptions. Ask your pharmacist if your prescriptions will be automatically transferred to a nearby pharmacy, and when this will occur.

    • What’s the staffing situation like at other pharmacies? This is an important factor in choosing a new pharmacy. What are the wait times? Can the team accommodate special situations like emergency refills or early refills before vacations? Does the pharmacist have a relationship with your primary care physician and your other prescribers?

    • Which pharmacies accept your insurance? A simple call to your insurer can help you understand where your prescriptions are covered at the lowest cost. And if you take a medication that’s not covered by insurance, or if you’re uninsured, you should ask if the pharmacy can help you by offering member pricing or manufacturer coupons and discounts.

    • What are your accessibility needs? Pharmacies often offer services to make your care more accessible and convenient. These may include medication packaging services, drive-thru windows and home delivery. And if you’re considering switching to a mail-order pharmacy, you should ask if it has a pharmacist to answer questions by phone or during telehealth visits.

    Remember that it’s best to have all your prescriptions filled at the same pharmacy chain or location so that your pharmacist can perform a safety check with your complete medication list. Drug interactions can be dangerous.

    Community pharmacies have been staples of neighborhoods for more than a century. Unfortunately, current trends in pharmacy closures pose real threats to public health. We hope lawmakers address the underlying systemic issues so more Americans don’t lose access to their medications, health services and pharmacists.

    Lucas A. Berenbrok is part owner of the consulting company, Embarx, LLC. He receives funding from the American Pharmacists Association.

    Michael Murphy consults to the American Pharmacists Association.

    Sophia Herbert has received funding from the Community Pharmacy Foundation.

    – ref. Why community pharmacies are closing – and what to do if your neighborhood location shutters – https://theconversation.com/why-community-pharmacies-are-closing-and-what-to-do-if-your-neighborhood-location-shutters-217775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How California can rebuild safer, more resilient cities after wildfires without pricing out workers

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nichole Wissman, Assistant Professor of Management, University of San Diego

    After the fires, what comes next for residents? Zoe Meyers/AFP via Getty Images

    The dramatic images of wealthy neighborhoods burning during the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires captured global attention, but the damage was much more widespread. Many working-class families lost their homes, businesses and jobs. In all, more than 16,000 structures – most of them homes – were destroyed, leaving thousands of people displaced.

    The shock of this catastrophic loss has been reverberating across Southern California, driving up demand for rental homes and prices in an already unaffordable and competitive housing market. Many residents now face rebuilding costs that are expected to skyrocket.

    Climate-related disasters like this often have deep roots in policies and practices that overlook growing risks. In the Los Angeles area, those risks are now impossible to ignore.

    As the region starts to recover, communities have an opportunity to rebuild in better ways that can protect neighborhoods against a riskier future – but at the same time don’t price out low-income residents.

    Sisters Emilee and Natalee De Santiago sit on the front porch of what remains of their home after the Eaton Fire in Altadena, Calif., in January 2025.
    Brandon Bell/Getty Images

    Research shows that low-income residents struggle the most during and after a disaster. Disaster assistance also tends to benefit the wealthy, who may have more time and resources to navigate the paperwork and process. This can have long-term effects on inequality in a community. In Los Angeles County, where one-third of even moderate-income households spend at least half their income on housing, many residents may simply be unable to recover.

    My research at the University of San Diego focuses on managing risk in the face of climate change. I see several ways to design solutions that help low- and moderate-income residents recover while building a safer community for the future.

    Better building policies that recognize future risk

    Before a disaster, communities trying to adapt to climate change often prioritize protecting high-risk, high-value property, such as a beachfront or hillside neighborhood with wealthy homes. My own research also shows a trend toward incremental climate adaptations that don’t disturb the status quo too much and, as a result, leave many risks unaddressed.

    Climate risks are often underestimated, in part because of policy limitations and a political reluctance to consider unpopular solutions, such as restricting where people can build. Yet, disasters once considered unimaginable, such as the Los Angeles wildfires, are occurring with increasing frequency.

    An aerial view shows the devastation left by the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades section of Los Angeles in January 2025. Homes in the hills can be at the highest fire risk during dry weather and strong winds.
    AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

    Making communities safer from these risks requires communitywide efforts. And that can mean making difficult decisions.

    Policy changes, such as updating zoning laws to prevent rebuilding in highly vulnerable areas, can avoid costly damage in the future. So can not building in risky areas in the first place.

    California already has some of the strictest wildfire-prevention codes in the country, but the same rules for new homes don’t apply to older homes. Communities can invest in programs to help these property owners retrofit their homes by offering grants or incentives to remove highly flammable landscaping or to “harden” existing homes to make them less vulnerable to burning.

    Research shows that resilience efforts can spur “climate gentrification,” or displacement due to increases in property values. So, focusing on affordability in resilience efforts is important. For long-term affordability and resilience, governments can collaborate with communities to develop strategies such as supporting Community Land Trusts through grants, low-interest loans or land transfers; implementing zoning reforms to enable higher-density, climate-resilient affordable housing; and incentivizing green infrastructure to strengthen community resilience.


    Beverly Hills Fire Department

    In some cases, communities may have to considered managed retreat – moving people out of high-risk areas – but with adequate compensation and support for displaced residents to ensure that they can rebuild their lives elsewhere.

    Making the risks clear through insurance

    Insurance rates can also encourage residents and communities to lower their risks. Yet in many places, insurance policies have instead obscured the risks, leaving homeowners less aware of how vulnerable their property may be.

    For years, insurers underpriced wildfire risk, driven by market competition. California policies also capped the premiums they could charge. As fire damage and rebuilding costs soared in recent years, insurers unwilling to shoulder more of the risk themselves pulled out of the state. That left countless Californians uninsured and hundreds of thousands reliant on the state-run insurance known as the FAIR Plan. The plan imposes caps on payouts and is now struggling to stay solvent, resulting in higher costs that insurers are expected to pass on to consumers.

    Insurance reforms could help reduce the financial burden on vulnerable populations while also lowering overall risk. To achieve this, the reforms could incentivize building more resilient homes in less risky areas.

    As seen with the LA fires, what your neighbor does matters. Reducing fire risk in each home can make entire neighborhoods safer. Insurers can provide a road map for how to reduce those risks, while state and local governments can provide assistance to retrofit homes and help ensure that insurance premiums remain affordable.

    There are also innovative approaches to fund resilience efforts that can include insurers. One example is New York’s Climate Change Superfund Act, which requires fossil fuel companies to finance climate adaptation efforts.

    Equipping communities with resilience hubs

    When disasters strike, local groups and neighbors play critical roles in stabilizing neighborhoods. But residents also need more specialized help to find housing and apply for disaster aid.

    Building resilience hubs in communities could help support residents before, during and after disasters.

    The resilience hub in the Boyle Heights neighborhood of Los Angeles provides one model for what these spaces can achieve. It’s anchored in a community arts center with solar power and backup energy storage. Residents can drop in to cool down during heat waves or charge their phones during power outages. It also hosts community classes, including in disaster preparedness.

    Boyle Heights, a largely Hispanic neighborhood in Los Angeles, has a resilience hub that provides disaster preparedness training, as well as support with food, housing and applying for assistance after disasters strike.
    Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    During and after a disaster, resilience hubs can serve as central organizing points. They can provide crucial information, resources and assistance with completing paperwork to access aid. Having access to skilled help in navigating what can be a complicated, time-consuming process is often critical, particularly for people who aren’t native English speakers.

    Getting assistance is also often critical for displaced renters, who may have little certainty about when or if they will be able to return to their homes. Understanding their legal rights can be confusing, and rising costs as rental housing is rebuilt can price them out of the market.

    Research shows that building a supportive community can provide a crucial social safety net when dealing with disasters and also boost the community’s social and economic well-being.

    Reframing policies for everyone

    The catastrophic LA wildfires were a powerful reminder that governments and communities need to think carefully about the risks they face and the role policies may play as they learn to live with greater fire risk.

    Building a resilient future in a warming world will require bold, innovative and collective strategies that support communities while advancing equitable solutions.

    Nichole Wissman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How California can rebuild safer, more resilient cities after wildfires without pricing out workers – https://theconversation.com/how-california-can-rebuild-safer-more-resilient-cities-after-wildfires-without-pricing-out-workers-247680

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nat King Cole’s often overlooked role in the Civil Rights Movement

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donna M. Cox, Professor of Music, University of Dayton

    Nat King Cole performs in Copenhagen, Denmark, in April 1960. Ebbe Wrae/JP Jazz Archive/Getty Images

    Six decades after Nat King Cole’s death in 1965, his music is still some of the most played in the world, and his celebrity transcends generational and racial divides. His smooth voice, captivating piano skills and enduring charisma earned him international acclaim.

    One of the most influential artists of the 20th century, Cole was not only a groundbreaking musician but also a quiet, yet resolute, advocate for social justice.

    As an African American sacred music scholar, I have been immersed in the inseparable link between music, culture and social change for over 40 years. Examining Cole through the lens of his activism uncovers the nuanced ways in which he challenged the status quo and contributed to the Civil Rights Movement.

    Beneath the polished veneer of his public image lay a deeply personal commitment to confronting racism and advocating for equality that is often overlooked.

    Formative years

    Nathaniel Adams Coles was born on March 17, 1919, in Montgomery, Alabama, to Perlina Adams Coles and Edward James Coles. Perlina served as the organist at the True Light Baptist Church and later the First Baptist Church of North Chicago, both pastored by Nathaniel’s father. She passed her love for music to her children, teaching them to play the piano and organ. Cole’s formative years were spent in church; gospel songs, hymns and spirituals formed the foundation of his musical education.

    Though Cole is primarily remembered for his jazz and pop hits, the emotive power, communal emphasis and uplifting nature of Black sacred music profoundly shaped his artistry throughout his career, despite his single sacred album, “Every Time I Feel The Spirit,” released in 1959. The influence of gospel music, in particular, can be heard in his soulful phrasing and heartfelt delivery, contributing to his remarkable ability to connect with audiences.

    Growing up in Chicago, he was also exposed to a rich tapestry of musical genres, including blues, classical and jazz. This eclectic upbringing laid the foundation for his versatile musical style and commercial success.

    Group portrait of singer Nat King Cole with his mother, Perlina, his younger brother, Ike, and his father, Edward, circa 1940.
    Nat King Cole photograph collection/New York Public Library

    While Cole’s music was not overtly political, his very presence in the mainstream was a statement. In an era of racial segregation, he was a Black man achieving unprecedented success in a predominantly white music industry. His impeccable diction, tailored suits and sophisticated performances countered the prevailing stereotypes of African Americans as uncouth or subservient.

    By embodying a poised and dignified persona, Cole communicated a powerful message: Black excellence and humanity could not be denied. As race scholar George Lipsitz writes in “The Possessive Investment in Whiteness,” “The cultural field … is a site of struggle where meanings are contested and power relations are negotiated.”

    Cole’s success challenged the structural racism that sought to confine Black artists to the margins and opened doors for future generations. He acknowledged the significance of his presence on national television, recognizing it as a potential turning point for Black representation. While hesitant to explicitly label himself an activist, he contemplated the impact of his success on breaking down barriers, believing that “when you’ve got the respect of white and colored, you can ease a lot of things.”

    Confronting racism

    In response to critics who dismiss Cole’s legacy as apolitical, I argue that they overlook the complexity of his resistance. Several scholars have stated that in a society where overt defiance often resulted in violence or economic ruin, Cole’s ability to navigate the entertainment industry while maintaining his dignity was itself a form of activism.

    Though Cole never referred to himself as an activist, he confronted racism in both overt and quiet ways. Scholars such as cultural theorist Stuart Hall and researcher Laura Pottinger define “quiet activism” as modest, everyday acts of resistance – either implicitly or explicitly political – that challenge dominant ideologies and power structures. These acts often entail processes of production or creativity.

    Despite his commercial success, Cole faced relentless systemic and personal racism. In 1948, he purchased a home in the affluent Hancock Park neighborhood of Los Angeles, a move met with hostility; the local homeowners association attempted to expel him, and he endured threats and acts of vandalism.

    Yet Cole refused to be intimidated. His resolve was a courageous act of resistance that highlighted the pervasive inequalities of the time.

    Cole faced blatant discrimination in Las Vegas. He was often denied access to the same hotels and restaurants where he performed, forced to stay in segregated accommodations. One particularly notable incident occurred at the Sands Hotel. in Las Vegas. When the maitre d’ tried to deny service to Cole’s Black bandmates in the dining room, Cole threatened to cancel his performance and leave. This forced the hotel management to back down, setting a precedent for other Black entertainers and patrons.

    Cole quietly sued hotels and negotiated contracts that guaranteed his right to stay in the hotels where he performed, a significant step toward desegregation. He also made it a point to bring his entire entourage, including Black musicians and friends, to these establishments, challenging their “whites only” policies.

    ‘We Are Americans Too’

    Photo of Natalie Cole singing with her father, Nat King Cole, in 1957.
    Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images

    Cole’s impact extended beyond the realm of music. In 1956, he became the first African American to host a national network television show, “The Nat King Cole Show.” This was a groundbreaking moment, as it brought a Black man into the living rooms of millions of white Americans every week.

    Though the show faced challenges with sponsorship due to racial prejudice, it marked a significant step toward greater representation and acceptance. As historian Donald Bogle notes in his 2001 book “Toms, Coons, Mulattoes, Mammies, and Bucks,” “Television … became a new battleground for the image of the black performer.” Cole’s show, despite its short run, was a crucial battle in this war.

    When Cole was attacked onstage by white supremacists during a concert in Birmingham, Alabama, in 1956, it underscored the physical danger Black public figures faced and galvanized Cole’s commitment to the Civil Rights Movement.

    It is important to note that Cole’s support for the Civil Rights Movement was often quiet and behind the scenes. He faced criticism from some who felt he should have been more outspoken. However, his actions demonstrate his commitment to the cause of racial equality. Cole, who died in 1965 at the height of the Civil Rights Movement, was a member of his local NAACP branch. He also performed at benefit concerts for the organization, raising money to support their efforts in fighting racial discrimination.

    Shortly after the attack in Birmingham, Cole recorded his only song that is specifically political, “We Are Americans Too.” Recorded in 1956, the song was a powerful statement of belonging and a challenge to racial exclusion. Though it would not come close to reaching commercial success, it did serve as a powerful reminder that African Americans were, in fact, Americans. Over a half-century later, this song still resonates and speaks to the ongoing struggle for full inclusion and recognition for marginalized groups.

    The juxtaposition of the refrain “We are Americans too” against the backdrop of the treatment of Black people during the Civil Rights Movement gives this song emotional weight. The very act of having to assert “We are Americans too” highlights the injustice of the situation.

    It underscores the disconnect between the ideals of American democracy and the reality of racial inequality. In this context, the refrain “We are Americans too” is an act of resistance, a challenge to the prevailing social order. It highlights the hypocrisy of a nation founded on principles of liberty while denying those same liberties to a significant portion of its population. It’s a call for America to finally recognize the full humanity and citizenship of its Black citizens.

    ‘We Are Americans Too.’

    Great art, and great artists, are powerful witnesses of the times in which they live, love, work and play. Their commentary, both artistically and humanly, leaves an important record for generations. This is clearly evident in Nat King Cole.

    Donna M. Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nat King Cole’s often overlooked role in the Civil Rights Movement – https://theconversation.com/nat-king-coles-often-overlooked-role-in-the-civil-rights-movement-248527

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Many gluten-free foods are high in calories and sugar, low on fiber and protein, and they cost more − new research

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sachin Rustgi, Associate Professor of Molecular Breeding, Clemson University

    The vast majority of Americans are not sensitive to foods containing gluten. Westend61 via Getty Images

    U.S. consumers often pay more for gluten-free products, yet these items typically provide less protein and more sugar and calories compared with gluten-containing alternatives. That is the key finding of my new study, published in the journal Plant Foods for Human Nutrition.

    This study compared gluten-free products with their gluten-containing counterparts, and the findings suggested that many perceived benefits of gluten-free products – such as weight control and diabetes management – are exaggerated.

    Currently, many gluten-free products lack dietary fiber, protein and essential nutrients. Manufacturers often add supplements to compensate, but the incorporation of dietary fibers during processing can hinder protein digestion.

    In addition, gluten-free products generally contain higher sugar levels compared with other products containing gluten. Long-term adherence to a gluten-free diet has been associated with increased body mass index, or BMI, and nutritional deficiencies.

    Gluten-free products – defined in the U.S. as those that contain less than or equal to 20 parts per million of gluten – largely lack wheat, rye, barley and sometimes oats, all rich sources of arabinoxylan, a crucial nonstarch polysaccharide. Arabinoxylan provides several health benefits, including promoting beneficial gut bacteria, enhancing digestion, regulating blood sugar levels and supporting a balanced gut microbiota.

    Our study also pointed out that it is difficult to find a gluten-free product that excels in all nutritional areas, such as high protein and fiber content with low carbohydrates and sugar.

    On the other hand, gluten-free seeded bread contains significantly more fiber – 38.24 grams per 100 grams – than its gluten-containing counterparts. This is likely due to efforts by manufacturers to address fiber deficiencies by using ingredients such as pseudo-cereals, such as amaranth and quinoa hydrocolloids – meaning water-soluble macromolecules used in gluten-free baked goods made with quinoa flour.

    These improvements, however, vary by manufacturer and region. For example, gluten-free products in Spain tend to have lower fiber content than their gluten-containing counterparts.

    Why it matters

    The term “gluten-free diet” has become a buzzword, much like “organic,” and is now a part of everyday life for many people, often without a full understanding of its actual benefits. While a gluten-free diet is a medical necessity for people who are sensitive to gluten, a condition called celiac disease, or for those with wheat allergies, others adopt a gluten-free diet due to perceived health benefits or because it’s a trend.

    In 2024, the global gluten-free product market was valued at US$7.28 billion and projected to reach $13.81 billion by 2032. The U.S. market share is estimated to be $5.9 billion – a little less than half of the global figure.

    Approximately 25% of the U.S. population consumes gluten-free products. This figure is far higher than the the roughly 6% of people with non-celiac wheat sensitivity, 1% of people with celiac disease and even lower percentages of people with wheat allergies.

    This suggests that many people adopt gluten-free diets for reasons other than medical necessity, which may not offer health or financial benefits.

    Symptoms of celiac disease and gluten intolerance include stomach pain and bloating.

    What’s next

    Investment in research and development is essential to create more nutritionally balanced gluten-free products using locally available ingredients. This will require human feeding trials with different formulations of gluten-free products to ensure that these products meet nutritional needs without adverse effects.

    Collaborations between governments could help secure subsidies, which would reduce production costs and make these products more affordable. Although the initial costs of research and maintaining a gluten-free production line are high, using local ingredients and financial incentives can make these products more cost-competitive compared with their gluten-containing counterparts.

    Public education is also important to keep people informed about the pros and cons associated with a gluten-free diet.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Sachin Rustgi receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research.

    – ref. Many gluten-free foods are high in calories and sugar, low on fiber and protein, and they cost more − new research – https://theconversation.com/many-gluten-free-foods-are-high-in-calories-and-sugar-low-on-fiber-and-protein-and-they-cost-more-new-research-247165

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How new Ofsted report cards could be improved – by giving parents what they want to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Toby Greany, Professor of Education, University of Nottingham

    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    Change is underway at Ofsted, England’s schools inspectorate. Headline judgments that summed up a whole school in one or two words have been discarded in favour of a proposed report card system that promises to offer a more rounded assessment of school quality.

    According to education secretary Bridget Phillipson, the changes are supposed to make the system less high stakes for schools while giving parents more information. The proposed report cards give a score on a five point scale for a range of areas, including wellbeing and inclusion, among others.

    The evidence that Ofsted’s previous approach was problematic had been stacking up for some years. My four-year study with colleague Rob Higham showed how inspections were driving a culture of compliance and standardisation in schools. They were incentivising leaders to prioritise the interests of the school over the interests of particular groups of, usually more vulnerable, children.

    So far, responses from the teaching profession to the new report card proposals have not been positive. The Association of School and College Leaders’ says they will be “bewildering for teachers and leaders, never mind the parents whose choices these reports are supposedly intended to guide”, and retain the high-stakes aspects of the previous system.

    A poll of more than 3000 school leaders by headteachers’ union the NAHT indicates that nine in ten disagree with the plans.

    My recent research suggests the need for a different approach which prioritises local accountability, in particular to parents. Over the past three years, my colleague Susan Cousin and I have been working on a project evaluating how professionals in different local areas can work together to address placed based challenges in education.

    One of these challenges was how to strengthen professional accountability. The aim was for school staff to take greater collective ownership of what school “quality” looks like and how it could be improved, rather than waiting for Ofsted to tell them.

    In two areas, Sheffield and Milton Keynes, school-led partnerships – membership organisations which support collaboration between schools – decided to develop their own local school “report cards”. These were intended to offer a broad and balanced set of information for parents, governors and others.

    In both areas a core design group was brought together. This involved leaders from a diverse range of local primary and secondary schools and academy trusts who agreed a draft format for the report cards.

    These prototypes were then taken out to consultation with wider schools as well as parents and carers. Based on their feedback, the report cards were adjusted before final versions were agreed. Each area developed different versions for primary, secondary and special schools.

    What parents want

    The most transformative aspect of the process arguably came from the consultations with parents and carers. For example, in the development of the Sheffield report card, it became clear that as well as information on the school from external sources – including Ofsted reports – parents wanted to learn more about what the school was really like. This led to the inclusion of a “get to know this school” section of the report card. The project lead in Sheffield explained to us:

    What came through really clearly … [from parents and carers] was, “I want a feel of the school” … They want the quality assured stuff. But they also want a feel of the place. And that’s why in the second iteration, what we’ve got is a whole section, which is an ability for the school to show itself – photos, videos, talk about particular aspects of education, and what’s unique about their school in relation to curriculum.

    Another feature that parents wanted included was a way of understanding what other parents and students themselves think about each school. In response, both Sheffield and Milton Keynes have included sections that show the “top five positives” according to parents and carers, and “five words from children about this school”.

    Strengthening local accountability

    England’s school system has become increasingly centralised in recent decades. The role and capacity of local authorities has been reduced and national requirements and oversight, including from Ofsted, have increased.

    In the process, school leaders and staff have become disempowered, while parents and local communities have largely lost their ability to influence the quality and direction of local schools. Locally developed school reports offer a way to redress the balance.

    This approach would not remove national accountability. In both Sheffield and Milton Keynes the plan is to incorporate national data, including from Ofsted inspections, into the local reports.

    But encouraging local ownership and strengthening the voice of parents and children in terms of how school quality is assessed and reported, could help schools become more accountable to the people most invested in them, rather than the national government.

    Toby Greany receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the Association of Education Committees and the Nuffield Foundation.

    – ref. How new Ofsted report cards could be improved – by giving parents what they want to know – https://theconversation.com/how-new-ofsted-report-cards-could-be-improved-by-giving-parents-what-they-want-to-know-249304

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Roman London’s first basilica found under an office block – here’s what it reveals about the ancient city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lacey Wallace, Senior Lecturer in Roman History & Material Culture, University of Lincoln

    Archaeologists from the Museum of London have discovered a well-preserved part of the ancient city of London’s first Roman basilica underneath the basement of an office block. The basilica was constructed for use as a public building in the 70s or early 80s AD.

    In a Roman town, a basilica was a multi-functional civic building. Often paid for by leading local inhabitants, it provided a large indoor space for public gatherings. These ranged from political speeches to judicial proceedings.

    Along with the connected forum – an arrangement of buildings that surrounded an open courtyard space – the building formed the centre of administrative and civic life in the ancient Roman city of Londinium.

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    Other walls of London’s basilica and forum have been known by archaeologists since the early 1880s. But they were only recognised as remains of the social and civic centre of Londinium in 1923.

    The story until now

    Peter Marsden, the author of The Roman Forum Site in London (1987), compiled disconnected evidence for the different phases of London’s forum basilica complex.

    Referring to the current area of excavations (on Gracechurch Street), he noted that: “More than half of the archaeological deposits still remain, and should be carefully excavated when the opportunity arises, since only then will the history of the site be elucidated.”

    Occasional opportunities have arisen to reveal small parts of the forum basilica. For example, during construction of a shaft to install a lift at 85 Gracechurch Street, some important remains from the first century were found. But the excavated area was too small to contribute greatly to our knowledge.

    In contrast, the recent work is part of a major redevelopment. It has opened targeted excavation areas where walls of the basilica were expected to be found, exposing substantial parts of the building.

    Archaeologists have found one-metre-wide foundations and walls of the interior, some of which probably extend for more than 10 metres in length. The walls are constructed of flint, tile and Kentish ragstone (a type of limestone quarried in Kent), and some stand at four metres high.

    Archaeologists discussing the find.

    What was the basilica for?

    Londinium was constructed on an unoccupied site beginning in about AD47 or 48. It began to gain the trappings of a Roman-style town, including a basilica building, in the lead-up to its destruction in the Boudican Revolt in AD60 or 61.

    The city did not have a monumental forum and basilica complex until later, however, when a major programme of public and private construction was undertaken in the Flavian period (AD69–96).

    London’s Flavian basilica took the plan of a long rectangle (44m x 22.7m) divided into three aisles. There is good evidence from the deeper central aisle (nave) wall foundations that the nave roof was raised to two storeys, to allow for windows to provide internal light.

    Shallow foundations crossing the nave are evidence of a raised dais or platform at the eastern end. The speaker or judge would sit there, elevated above the crowds, increasing both his visibility and status. This platform, or “tribunal”, is the area that has recently been revealed.

    The basilica would have risen above the north side of the buildings that formed the forum courtyard. It would have dominated the high ground of this monumental space at the highly visible crossroads leading straight up from the Roman Thames bridge.

    It would have been the largest building in the area and firmly announced that the people of Londinium were constructing a high-status Roman city.

    Rebuilding following the British queen Boudica’s revolt had been swift. The post-Revolt fort that was built only 100 metres or so down the street had likely been decommissioned and the people were ready to embark on a new phase and a major expansion of the urban centre.

    The designs of late first century forum basilica complexes varied across the provinces. But generally they combined religious, civic, judicial and mercantile space.

    In places like Pompeii, the forum had developed over time. But, when the town was buried by the ash of Vesuvius in AD79 (approximately the same time the forum basilica of London was built), the focus of the elongated monumental space was the Temple of Jupiter, symbol of the Roman state.

    Although a classical temple was constructed to the west of the exterior of Londinium’s Flavian forum, it was clearly separate. No forum in Britannia was dominated by a temple, setting the core of urban space in this province apart from most examples in the rest of the empire.

    The Flavian forum basilica at Londinium is one of the earliest examples to demonstrate this characteristic, along with that at Verulamium (St Albans). There, an inscription links the circa AD79–81 construction to the governor Agricola, who is well known among historians from the celebratory biography written by his son-in-law, Tacitus.

    The Flavian basilica and forum only stood for about 20 or 30 years, however. With increased prosperity in the early second century, they were demolished and replaced by a new structure which was five times larger, leaving the remains of the first basilica underneath the surface of the later courtyard space.

    The Museum of London will now analyse and publish the results of its find, applying modern methods to advance our understanding of the development of the first forum basilica. We can expect refined dating evidence and an improved understanding of the architecture from the post-excavation analyses. An exhibition space to make the remains visible for the public is also planned.

    Lacey Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Roman London’s first basilica found under an office block – here’s what it reveals about the ancient city – https://theconversation.com/roman-londons-first-basilica-found-under-an-office-block-heres-what-it-reveals-about-the-ancient-city-249980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to be happy with what you have – and avoid the trap of comparison

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joshua Forstenzer, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy and Co-Director of the Centre for Engaged Philosophy, University of Sheffield

    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    In many ways, I feel like we shouldn’t be happy with what we have. We live in a world of tremendous inequality and cruelty, running towards an environmental wall. Not just that, but some of the best people I know are chronic persistors: they know how not to accept the unacceptable.

    But we also live in an economy that profits from and purposefully generates private feelings of lack, want, comparison and envy. Somewhat counter-intuitively, this envy often spurs on the feelings of lack and want, rather than the other way around. This is the genius of advertising: to generate “perceived” (aka fake) needs. I see someone living a “good” life – exciting, sexy, creative – and now I want what they have: the shoes, watch, holiday, you name it.

    Envy requires comparison. And comparison requires a scale by which to rank ourselves. Popular culture offers quite a few. Being the object of sexual desire (think of “matches” on dating apps) for example, or digital social connectivity (think of “followers” or “likes”). These can all play a role in shaping your sense of personal success or failure.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

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    Sometimes, these are presented in a unified pseudo-metric of success. Take for example the idea of a “high-value man”. The parts of the internet that use the concept tend to celebrate having money, a wide social network and being useful to others. This often veers into celebrating material wealth and superficial self improvement as the path to success and sexual attractiveness. The viral TikTok song I’m Looking for a Man in Finance is an only mildly exaggerated spoof of this ideal.

    The implicit assumption is that having more “good things” than others means being more valuable as a person. But behind this there are a host of hidden assumptions – not least that you can “own” the genuinely valuable things in life (as opposed to being them).

    These hidden assumptions usually reveal deep seated shame – the feeling that you are not enough as you are. And that you are not entitled to set the parameters that define the success or failure of your own life.

    Feeling bad about yourself is not always unhealthy. A healthy negative feeling lets you know if you have done something wrong, or acted in a manner that does not meet your own moral standards. This feeling calls for you to change your ways.

    Shame can be very psychologically painful.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    The unhealthy feeling, that I am calling “shame”, is not merely the feeling of embarrassment or moral doubt. Rather, it is (to follow vulnerability researcher Brené Brown’s definition) “the intensely painful feeling or experience of believing that we are flawed and therefore unworthy of love and belonging”.

    This feeling is so psychologically painful that you may reflexively do all you can to remain unaware of it. This denial means that you can start to see your own critical inner voice (itself shaped by past negative experiences) as animated by an “objective” social reality, telling you not just that you’re failing, but that you are a failure. This is often called “projection”.

    Other times, when you can bear to consciously feel this emotion, you may seek to negotiate with it and offer remedial actions to the universe to make up for recurrent feelings of worthlessness. In darker times still, shame can overtake your whole life, paralysing you and creeping into the quietest parts of your private self.

    How to combat shame and be happy with what you have

    Shame can be a remarkably sticky emotion. Identifying and interrogating it can be helpful. Working on revising how you understand your self and your relationship to others can also help. The options are many, but for the sake of illustration here are three that speak to me.

    1. Stoicism

    Stoics believed that your essential nature is stable and the project of life is to fulfil this nature and flourish. When making judgments, people ascribe value to an imagined state of affairs (“it would be really great if I were thinner”) and a belief that a specific course of action will make it a reality (“going without chocolate will return the figure I had in my teens”).

    A stoic approach means connecting with your community.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    Both of these can be false, because the things you desire can actually be bad for you, and you have less control over the future than you tend to think. Stoics thought people should try to get the relationship between their emotional state and the goods they pursue into harmony, seeking self-mastery in order to flourish.

    To this end, stoic ethics demand that you recognise and cultivate habits that put you in touch with your own nature within the wider world – starting from the self, expanding to the family, the community, the state, humanity and ultimately the cosmos.

    2. Existentialism

    In contrast, existentialism requires paying attention to the lack of any ultimate purpose in human life. No one thing can ever fully define who you are. Your capacity to reinvent yourself, to value something new, to start a fresh project, is yours alone.

    Existentialists define life’s meaning for themselves.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    The empty feeling of meaninglessness you sometimes encounter when you have finally achieved a long sought after goal (like getting that big promotion) can be dizzying. But this feeling is a reminder of the fact that nothing in your nature demands that you achieve any one thing. It’s up to you.

    You must face authentically the fact that you are free and therefore responsible for your projects and the meaning you give to them.

    3. Humanistic psychotherapy

    A humanistic psychotherapeutic perspective offers a middle way. It invites you to look upon yourself with compassion, seeing yourself as complex, responsible and yet also imperfect and vulnerable, always involved in a richly evolving tapestry of relationships that ultimately gives meaning and purpose to your life.

    In humanistic psychotherapy, our relationships give life meaning.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    This means that relationships and the recognition you give and derive from them provide the only solid basis for confronting that most important question – “who am I?” – ultimately seeing you through your darkest times. But this means that you need these relationships to be genuine, kind and honest so that you can see yourself and others for the frail, evolving and unique individuals that we all are.

    Joshua Forstenzer’s work receives funding from the Yale Center for Faith and Culture as part of its Templeton-funded Life Worth Living project (https://lifeworthliving.yale.edu/). He is also a consultant to North Consulting as part of the LIFE Erasmus+ project (https://www.kmop.gr/projects-vf/news-life-worth-living/) which uses text-based pedagogic methods to facilitate wellbeing conversations about meaning and purpose with teachers and school leaders in five European countries.

    – ref. How to be happy with what you have – and avoid the trap of comparison – https://theconversation.com/how-to-be-happy-with-what-you-have-and-avoid-the-trap-of-comparison-235476

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain’s unearned wealth has ballooned – a modest capital tax could help avoid austerity and boost the economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stewart Lansley, Visiting Fellow, School of Policy Studies, University of Bristol

    Canary Wharf in London. I Wei Huang/Shutterstock

    Inheriting the worst set of public finances for decades, Labour was always going to face an uphill struggle trying to fund improvements to the UK’s public services.

    Inflated debt and recent hikes in the cost of borrowing mean the government is faced with stark choices. For it will be difficult to meet the chancellor’s own tight fiscal rules without further tax rises or cuts in public spending.

    But as the former chief economist at the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, has warned, further spending cuts would be “deeply counterproductive”.

    One solution for avoiding ongoing austerity lies in raising a higher proportion of taxes from assets. For despite the UK enjoying a long personal wealth boom, little of this boom is the result of new wealth creation or higher productivity.

    Much of it is unearned. Some is the product of corporate wealth extraction, where dividend payments and personal fortunes have have been prioritised over the long-term health of a company. Some privatised water firms, for example, have been turned into cash cows for their owners.

    Another large part of British unearned wealth is the product of state-induced asset inflation. Since 1999, house prices in England have risen almost three times faster than incomes.

    This kind of asset inflation is a classic example of “passive accumulation”. Or, as the 19th-century philosopher John Stuart Mill described it, getting rich in your sleep.

    As a result, household wealth currently stands at over six times the UK’s GDP. It was three times in the 1970s.

    Yet while Britain is asset rich, its tax system is heavily based on earnings from work. Taxes on income from dividends, capital gains and inheritance make a tiny contribution to the public purse.

    This is a fundamental flaw of the tax system which does little to dent the growing concentration of wealth owned by the few. Through political inertia, the tax system has failed to catch up with the growing importance of wealth over income.

    Inherit the earth?

    The fallout from the low taxation on wealth is well illustrated by the role of inheritance.

    Levels of wealth passed on after death in the UK have been rising sharply. Over the next three decades, some millennials are expected to inherit a staggering £5.5 trillion, dwarfing all previous transfers of wealth between generations.

    The lion’s share of this transfer will go to the most affluent. The lifetime wealth of those with parents in the richest fifth will see their wealth grow by 29% – compared with 5% for those born to the poorest fifth.

    This will only intensify the reproduction of the wealth divide of the past.

    Extending the tax base is not just about fairness or revenue raising. Asset holdings are often little more than unused resources, while big inter-generational wealth transfers can play a counterproductive role in the economy.

    Over a third of the UK’s wealth is stored in property (with the rest in pensions, savings and possessions). This is mostly only realised when passed on through inheritance , where its benefits accrue to the already privileged. Little of this process contributes to more productive activity, with one of its most malign effects being to fuel higher house prices, because the money is largely reinvested in property.

    The unfairness of inherited wealth has long been recognised. The patron saint of economics, Adam Smith called it “manifestly absurd”.

    Farmers have protested against Labour’s plans for inheritance tax.
    Mark Anthony Ray/Shutterstock

    A modest and phased rise in capital taxation would help to reduce the passive role played by wealth holdings. Even small changes would release funds which could be used to improve social infrastructure from schools to hospitals.

    One approach would be to build on the existing tax system through higher rates and fewer reliefs and loopholes. The second would be to introduce new taxes.

    In her first budget, Rachel Reeves took steps to raise revenue through the first option, from both inheritance and capital gains tax. But these were too modest to alter the overwhelming dominance of tax on earnings.

    A more fundamental shift would be to reform the existing system of council tax with a larger number of tax bands at the top. Still based on 1991 property values, this is perhaps the least defensible tax in Britain. The most effective alternative would be to replace council tax and stamp duty with a single proportionate “property tax”.

    Another option would be for a modest annual 1% tax on wealth over £2 million, which has the potential to raise around £16 billion a year, or double that on wealth over £1 million.

    Such a measure could be sold politically as a “solidarity tax” to help pay for the things the UK needs. And while governments have been wary of the political reaction to higher taxes on wealth, the tide is turning.

    Those supporting higher taxes on wealth include the Conservative-aligned think tank Bright Blue and an influential campaign group called the Patriotic Millionaires. There is also growing public support.

    Continued public spending austerity would drive more years of stagnation. It would also be politically suicidal for this government, as it was for Labour in 1931 and in the 1970s. But harnessing a little more of the country’s immense private wealth would make the tax system more equitable and by providing the resources to boost social investment, ease the path to economic recovery.

    Stewart Lansley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Britain’s unearned wealth has ballooned – a modest capital tax could help avoid austerity and boost the economy – https://theconversation.com/britains-unearned-wealth-has-ballooned-a-modest-capital-tax-could-help-avoid-austerity-and-boost-the-economy-247970

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Surfer’s ear: the condition that might leave wild swimmers and surfers with hearing loss

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

    Surfer’s ear happens when growths develop on the bones of the auditory canal. speedshutter Photography/ Shutterstock

    Cold water swimming, paddleboarding and surfing are all popular pastimes – with millions of people in the UK regularly participating in at least one type of outdoor watersport each year.

    But those bravely breaking the waves may not realise they could actually be putting themselves at risk of hearing loss due to external auditory canal exostosis – better known as surfer’s ear.

    Surfer’s ear affects the auditory canal – the thin tube which conveys sound waves from our surroundings, channelling them towards the sensory organs which generate our sense of hearing.

    These inner portions of the ear are shielded by bone. This is because the anatomical structures that turn air pressure waves into sounds – the eardrum, ossicles and cochlea – are very small, very sensitive and would be easily and irreparably damaged if not protected.

    Ideally, our ear canals should be clear and unobstructed. Sure, sometimes they can get clogged up with wax and even sometimes foreign bodies can work their way inside (such as peas, plasticine or even bugs).



    Read more:
    What bodily secretions like blood, wax and tears can tell us about our health

    But surfer’s ear causes an obstruction of the ear canal in a different manner. Growths start to develop on the bone which lines the auditory canal.

    As these growths continue to develop, they push into the canal – effectively narrowing the space inside. In doing so, this can prevent the conduction of sound waves getting through to the eardrum. One symptom patients with surfer’s ear may notice as a result is hearing loss.

    Other associated problems may arise, too. The ear canal produces wax. Any narrowing of the canal will more easily retain wax, but also water – not just from swimming, but from wet weather or taking a shower. An accumulation of both in the canal can worsen hearing loss and raise the risk of developing an ear infection.

    But what causes surfer’s ear in the first place?

    The cause appears to lie in repeated exposure to cold water and high winds – which most surfers encounter while riding a wave, or tumbling off one. It appears to be a problem unique to humans, perhaps because of the configuration of their ears.

    While researchers aren’t entirely sure why cold exposure causes the bone to grow abnormally, it’s possible that the ear’s natural response to prolonged cold (which irritates the eardrum) is to create a bigger shield for it. Cold water and wind may stimulate bone cells called osteoblasts, causing new bone to grow – offering more protection.

    It’s important to note that surfer’s ear is different from swimmer’s ear – a condition which you may be more familiar with. Though both can arise from water immersion.

    Swimmer’s ear, also called otitis externa, is a form of ear infection. It typically results in pain and discharge, and can arise from water accumulating in the ear canal, which then acts as a breeding ground for bacteria. Narrowing of the ear canal can worsen the problem, so swimmer’s ear can also be associated with surfer’s ear.

    Surfer’s ear is distinct from swimmer’s ear, where water accumulates in the ear canal.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/ Shutterstock

    It’s estimated that 3-6% of the general population may have some form of exostosis. But the condition does appear to overwhelmingly affect surfers – with one systematic review finding the condition affected an average of around 68% of surfers.

    However, surfer’s ear is not unique to surfers. Any sport which exposes an athlete to cold water and wind might result in the same effect. These include wild or outdoor swimming, windsurfing and kayaking.

    There’s also a cultural and geographical difference in prevalence across the globe. It’s estimated that 10% of Australians surf, and potentially raising the risk.

    You don’t even have to venture into the water to develop surfer’s ear, either. Some research suggests people living near the coast have an increased risk of developing surfer’s ear as they’re more likely to be exposed to cold winds. Other cases have been observed in patients without a clear cause.

    The condition might also be more common in males – though this may be due to a larger proportion of men participating in both the sport and the research.

    Preventing surfer’s ear

    Some research suggests that using earplugs while in the water can help reduce cold exposure to the ear and lower the risk. There are also specialised hooded wetsuits and bands that can worn as further protective measures.

    Surfer’s ear appears to be a long-term complication, and is more likely to develop from regular exposure, not just an occasional cold water dip. More than ten years of surfing appears to be associated with a greater risk, and more severe canal obstruction.

    For patients who develop severe symptoms – such as hearing loss and persistent ear infections – surgery may be required. The operation, called a canalplasty, involves chiselling or drilling away the excess bone to widen the canal again. Surfers should avoid heading back into the waves for two to three months after the operation until the site has properly healed.

    There’s some indication surfer’s ear may be on the rise – though this could also be because we’re getting better at diagnosing it and nowadays more surfers are aware of the condition.

    The risk of developing surfer’s ear in one or both ears is sadly real. Unfortunately, it appears that only by abstaining from surfing can the condition be averted.

    So if you do plan to go out into the wind and water – whether that’s surfing, paddleboarding or wild swimming – don’t forget your earplugs.

    Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Surfer’s ear: the condition that might leave wild swimmers and surfers with hearing loss – https://theconversation.com/surfers-ear-the-condition-that-might-leave-wild-swimmers-and-surfers-with-hearing-loss-249201

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The secret behind Temu’s rock-bottom prices

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Henri Isaac, Maître de conférences en sciences de gestion, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL

    Temu has made a remarkable entry in the global e-commerce landscape, quickly becoming the fifth largest online marketplace in France. Critics claim Temu’s ultra-competitive pricing relies on unfair practices. Yet its success stems from the powerful—and proven—business model of its parent company, Pinduoduo, which started as an online marketplace for fresh fruit…

    In just two years, the Chinese e-commerce platform Temu has emerged as a key contender in the global marketplace. In France, it ranked as the fifth most-visited online commerce platform in October 2024. At the heart of this remarkable achievement are its ultra-low prices, which many observers argue are made possible only through questionable practices, such as poor product quality, dumping, aggressive marketing, and deceptive trade tactics.
    Despite widespread skepticism over its long-term viability, Temu continues to invest heavily in advertising and market penetration, challenging an e-commerce sector where no new player has made a significant breakthrough in the past decade. While other online retailers, like AliExpress and the fashion giant Shein, have disrupted Western markets with similar cutthroat pricing strategies, only Temu has done what few believed possible: outperforming Amazon, the long-standing gold standard for competitive pricing.

    From factory to global store

    Temu’s pricing policies are not revolutionary in China. The platform closely follows the business model of its parent company, Pinduoduo (or PDD Holdings). As Pinduoduo’s international arm, Temu represents China’s ambition to transition from being the world’s factory to becoming the world’s store. Its low prices are not a temporary launch tactic but a fundamental pillar of its long-term strategy.

    Established in Boston in September 2022, Temu is an offshoot of the Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo, founded in 2015 following the success of Pinhaohuo. Introduced by Colin Huang in April that year, Pinhaohuo used WeChat’s group-buying model to sell bulk orders of fresh fruit. Its rapid growth led to the creation of Pinduoduo, which disrupted China’s e-commerce market—long dominated by JD.com and Alibaba—before expanding globally through Temu. Today, Temu operates in 79 countries.

    Reverse auctions and consigned inventory: driving down prices

    At the heart of Temu’s pricing strategy is the Consumer-To-Manufacturer (C2M) model, introduced by Pinduoduo in March 2023. This approach utilizes reverse auctions, where Temu solicits bids from manufacturers, forcing suppliers to compete by offering the lowest possible prices. PDD Holdings sets final product prices and profit margins, and manufacturers deliver products directly to Pinduoduo’s warehouses in China, eliminating the need for Temu to purchase or hold stock. Instead, manufacturers bear storage costs and must take back any unsold items. Payments are typically made quarterly, further easing Temu’s financial burden. In essence, Pinduoduo operates a consigned inventory model.

    Reverse auctions enable Temu to secure the lowest possible prices from the outset, with Pinduoduo’s logistics expertise allowing for rapid order consolidation, creating economies of scale that particularly benefit smaller manufacturers who, without Pinduoduo, would struggle to achieve such demand levels. Additionally, by pooling shipping logistics, Pinduoduo further reduces total product costs compared to direct manufacturer sales.

    Creating a buzz on social media

    On the consumer side, Pinduoduo deploys its group-buying model to drive sales through social media trends. The name Pinduoduo roughly translates as “together, more savings, more fun,” reflecting its core strategy: the more buyers in a group purchase, the lower the price. This tactic has propelled Pinduoduo to become the world’s leading social commerce platform by user numbers, with 694 million users in China alone as of June 2024, according to XQuestMobile China.

    Beyond group purchasing, Pinduoduo has leveraged gamified (gamification) shopping features–widespread in Chinese business culture–to encourage impulse buying, a challenge for most online retailers.

    The company entered the market by strategically targeting overlooked consumer segments, focusing on lower-income shoppers in smaller cities and rural areas, rather than competing for wealthier urban customers dominated by JD.com and Alibaba. This approach led to rapid growth and profitability by 2021. By 2023, Pinduoduo, including Temu, reported $34.879 billion in revenue and a net income of $8.267 billion.

    A commission-free revenue model

    How does Pinduoduo generate revenue? By charging manufacturers for end-customer shipping logistics and marketing services such as product promotion, visibility, and platform placement. Logistics revenue accounts for 38% of the platform’s total earnings, while marketing services contribute 62%.

    Unlike Amazon and other online marketplaces, Pinduoduo does not take commissions on sales. Instead, it operates as a logistics and marketing service provider, facilitating distribution for manufacturers and managing logistics flows.

    This proven revenue framework is key to Pinduoduo’s highly competitive prices. Additionally, the company benefits from a favorable corporate tax rate in China–15% compared to the standard 25% for traditional businesses. By leveraging bulk purchasing, optimized marketing and logistics, and a commission-free structure, Pinduoduo can sustain its low-cost pricing strategy—much like its Chinese e-commerce rival, Shein.

    Favorable customs regulations

    Temu is duplicating the Pinduoduo model abroad. Within this framework, Temu benefits from the U.S. customs tariffs (Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930), that exempts goods valued under $800 from customs duties. The EU provides a similar exemption for items under €150 (Article 23 of Regulation 1186/2009). Most of Temu’s products fall below these thresholds, allowing them to be shipped duty-free.

    Within two years, Temu has onboarded over 200,000 retailers, shipped 4 million packages daily from 60 warehouses in China and attracted 467 million users worldwide by offering products 40% to 60% cheaper than Amazon. To rapidly grow its customer base and achieve self-sustaining critical mass in Europe and the U.S., Temu is investing heavily in product subsidies.

    Its online advertising strategy is equally aggressive, with substantial investments in social media ads on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat, as well as search engine ranking. While exact figures for these campaigns remain undisclosed, annual reports from PDD Holdings, show its marketing spend–including Temu’s–increased by 34% to approximately €10.7 billion in 2023, with an estimated $4 to 5 billion allocated to Temu alone.

    Temu’s marketing strategy and its slogan, “Shop like a billionaire,” follow the playbook of major digital platforms, where sustained subsidies drive demand and fuel viral engagement. In such models, economies of scale are directly tied to consumer demand—a concept known as the demand-side economy of scope.

    High logistics costs

    Expanding the Pinduoduo model internationally comes with logistical challenges, particularly due to the higher shipping costs of air freight delivery from China, making the current international model vulnerable to potential losses.

    To address this, Temu began transitioning to a new operating model in March 2024, gradually shifting from its initial fully managed approach to a semi-managed one. Under this model, Temu-represented merchants ship products via ocean freight to U.S. warehouses for local distribution.

    Additionally, Temu has engaged the Chinese diaspora in the U.S. to operate “family warehouses” from their homes, including apartments and garages, providing storage, labeling, and shipping services at competitive rates. This strategy attracts smaller merchants who cannot afford large warehouse facilities. It also demonstrates how retailers are adapting to Temu’s evolving logistics model, with the platform primarily managing purchasing and pricing.

    However, Temu has introduced a traditional model, where sellers set their own prices much like eBay, AliExpress, and Amazon. Already rolled out across several European countries, including the UK, Germany, Spain, and France, the model could challenge Temu’s ability to sustain its ultra-low prices.

    If Temu transitions into a more conventional marketplace, how will its low-cost offerings stack up against Amazon? Temu has disrupted the online retail landscape, but can its aggressive pricing strategy stand the test of time?

    Henri Isaac est membre de Renaissance Numérique.

    – ref. The secret behind Temu’s rock-bottom prices – https://theconversation.com/the-secret-behind-temus-rock-bottom-prices-249231

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine peace talks: Trump is bringing Russia back in from the cold and ticking off items on Putin’s wish list

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Rodgers, Reader in International Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

    The meeting now underway in Saudi Arabia between senior delegations from the United States and Russia could be the first step towards an end to the war in Ukraine – and not just an end to the war. The New York Times has reported that the talks may cover issues beyond the battlefield, with the resumption of US-Russia business ties on the table, too.

    Whatever is discussed, Ukraine seems set to lose out.

    The same cannot be said of the long-term occupant of the Kremlin. For 20 years, Vladimir Putin has been working towards what Donald Trump has now given him. Ever since Putin bemoaned the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century, his foreign policy has been about getting back at least some of the superpower status the Soviet Union enjoyed.

    In one sense, the US president’s overture to Putin to discuss peace in Ukraine has given the Russian president exactly what he wanted: for Washington to treat Moscow with the respect – and perhaps even fear – that the Soviet Union once commanded from the west.

    And in that sense, Trump’s telephone call with the Kremlin represented a huge triumph for Putin. Putin now has a pending invitation back to the top table of world affairs. He has conceded not an inch of occupied Ukrainian territory to get there. Nor has he even undertaken to give back any of what Russian forces have seized since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

    Now his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is talking to the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio. Meanwhile the annexation of Crimea in 2014 – which is when Russia’s war on Ukraine actually began – seems increasingly likely to be overlooked. The suggestion from the US defence secretary, Pete Hesgeth, last week that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was “unrealistic” has made clear Washington’s current view on that.

    So far, so good for Putin, who sees the western alliance that has been ranged against him – albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm and commitment – for the past three years beginning to crack.

    Under Trump, Washington’s policy on Ukraine is showing signs of significant divergence from that of the EU or UK. Putin no doubt sees his determination not to be cowed by western pressure as starting now to lead to longer-term success.



    Read more:
    Europe left scrambling in face of wavering US security guarantees

    Now the two leaders have agreed to meet – a complete reversal of the three years of increasing isolation during Joe Biden’s presidency. And, as we know, the first time the two leaders met for a summit, in Helsinki in 2018, Putin was widely seen as having outwitted Trump. As Trump’s then senior director for European and Russian Affairs, Fiona Hill, recalled in her memoir: “As Trump responded that he believed Putin over his own intelligence analysts, I wanted to end the whole thing.”

    Putin will hardly feel he enters any future negotiation as an underdog. Just by being there, to discuss the most pressing matter for the future of European security with the US president, Putin has achieved part of his long-term goal. Just as in the days of the Soviet Union, leaders from the Kremlin and the White House will meet to discuss European affairs as the preeminent powers on the continent.

    The views of Europeans themselves, especially Ukrainians, are secondary.

    Back to the top table

    If Putin’s 2005 lament for a lost superpower gave a clue to the course his time at the summit of Russian power would take, then he gave yet more clues on the eve of the full-scale invasion. In December 2021, Putin regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union once again.

    This time he said it had a significance far beyond the century in which it happened, saying: “We turned into a completely different country. And what had been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost.”

    Days later, with expectation growing that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, the foreign ministry in Moscow published a document it called Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees.

    The language chosen is striking today for the references it makes to the Soviet Union, as in article 4: “The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.”

    The Biden administration dismissed the treaty as the trolling it represented. But Hegseth’s recent remark, “The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” fits right in with Putin’s wish list.

    This is about Russia becoming the international heavyweight the Soviet Union once was. It is also about a turn of events that greatly favours Putin.

    For three years, I have been working on a book, The Return of Russia: From Yeltsin to Putin, the Story of a Vengeful Kremlin. My research included interviews with leading policymakers, among them Jens Stoltenberg, who served as secretary general of Nato between 2014 and 2024. When we spoke in September 2023, I took the opportunity to ask him how he saw the coming months in the war in Ukraine. He told me:

    Only the Ukrainians that can decide what is an acceptable solution. But the stronger they are on the battlefield, the stronger they will be on the negotiating table and therefore our responsibility is to support them … but it’s for Ukrainian to make the hard decisions on the battlefield. And of course at the end at the negotiating table.

    Trump’s démarche towards a deal appears to ignore that logic, and strengthens Putin’s hand before negotiations have even started.

    If it does lead to an end to the war now, there is nothing to say that Putin’s long view of history won’t encourage him to go to war again in a few years. And he’ll be better prepared to capture more territory than he has already in the last three blood-soaked years.

    James Rodgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine peace talks: Trump is bringing Russia back in from the cold and ticking off items on Putin’s wish list – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-peace-talks-trump-is-bringing-russia-back-in-from-the-cold-and-ticking-off-items-on-putins-wish-list-249982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to win an election? Focus on persuasion, not policy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Danisch, Professor, Department of Communication Arts, University of Waterloo

    Ontario residents will soon elect a new government, and Canadians should expect a federal election this spring.

    Elections matter. They are opportunities for democracies to enact the bedrock principle that leaders are accountable to the citizenry — and for citizens to examine how communication practices inhibit or enhance democratic life.

    For politicians, elections pose a specific, clear communication challenge: How does a politician persuade a voter?

    Persuade voters

    Success in an election requires persuasion. Too often, though, politicians misunderstand the process of persuasion. The most common mistake is to believe that explaining a specific policy proposal will influence voters.

    Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie began her campaign, for example, touting platform doors for Toronto subway stops. This is a sure sign Crombie will fail to persuade a plurality of voters.

    Why? Because Crombie is mistakenly thinking about communication as a process of transmitting information — transmit the right information or policy idea and the public will nod in agreement. That’s not how communication works.

    Science communicators call this the “deficit model” of communication (the public lacks information; once they get it, they change their behaviour).

    Motivate voters; control the narrative

    There’s little evidence that information sharing is persuasive, and popular policy positions routinely fail to persuade voters (a casual look at the last presidential election in the United States demonstrates this). Politicians, of course, want to talk about policy, but policy is how one governs — not how one persuades.

    Politicians need to motivate voters, not inform them. Ancient orators like Demosthenes and Cicero knew this, as did former U.S. president Barack Obama and even authoritarian leaders like Hugo Chavez.

    Explaining policy positions is not how to win an election.

    Crombie’s proposal for platform edge doors reveals a deeper communication problem. A policy like this implies a frame, or a map, through which people are invited to see the world.

    Crombie’s policy proposal suggests that the world is a dangerous place. If we accept that frame, then we are likely to feel fear for our safety and imagine the government as our protector — this is the likely effect of her policy talk.

    This is exactly the frame that conservative politicians often promote. In elections, the party that controls the frame wins.

    The frame implied by any policy matters more than the content of the policy in an election. Another way to understand the power of language is to think of a simple phrase like “tax relief.” For years, left-leaning political parties have advocated for middle class “tax relief.”

    But this frame assumes that taxes are a burdensome infringement (the word “relief” signifies some burden that we need relief from). That is the assumption of right-leaning political parties.

    The more politicians on the left continue to portray taxes this way, the more persuasive the parties on the right become.

    Whose values?

    The important lesson here is that politicians need to have the conversation they want, not the conversation their opponents want. Donald Trump’s most powerful communication skill is forcing the media and his opponents onto his conversational terrain.

    Trump’s oppenent, Kamala Harris, tried to talk values. But her messaging was often too confusing, too complex and too varied to be persuasive, especially compared to Trump’s repetitive drumbeat of value-based accusations.

    Consider the broader frame that government’s job is to help the economy. Some have argued “the economy” is a fiction, a rhetorical construction that suits right-leaning political parties. Whenever the left advocates for a policy that intends to help “the economy” (a higher minimum wage, for example), they recirculate and reaffirm a conservative frame.



    Read more:
    Why Donald Trump’s words work, and what to do about it

    At the core of these frames are often a set of values: freedom is good, government can’t be trusted, the economy matters most. Messaging that focuses on why is much more effective than messaging that focuses on what and how.

    When politicians talk about values more than they provide information, they are more likely to get attention and cause reactions. Values talk — about what’s good or bad, right or wrong — tends to target the more primal, limbic part of our brain, which can cause people to feel motivated to act.

    Crombie, therefore, needs to explicitly articulate her values, why she is running for office, and make sure to implicitly frame any policy suggestion through attention to those values. Right now, she is implying conservative values through liberal policies — that won’t work.

    Stories reinforce the frame

    Values tend to come wrapped in the stories we tell about ourselves and our moment. Marshall Ganz, Harvard sociologist and community organizer, trained Barack Obama’s campaign volunteers in a form of storytelling, based on values, that was intended to motivate people.

    Good stories have villains and heroes, along with challenges or choices. Most importantly, good stories create a feeling of identification — a “we” that navigates a set of challenges or choices.

    Stories that make people feel hope, confidence, solidarity, anger and urgency are particularly adept at motivation. And these stories are also able to reinforce the frame through which we view the world, causing a story to “feel true” for voters even if it contains factual inaccuracies.

    The story that resonates most powerfully creates a sense of identification and makes a specific frame seem true drives electoral outcomes.

    Vision of the future

    The very best stories have a clear vision of the future. Too often politicians fixate on, and lament, problems. All of that problem talk can inhibit motivation. A clear picture of an ideal future shows the citizenry how a story ends.

    These imagined futures can be inspiring in ways that drive action. Painting a compelling tomorrow is a central part of political persuasion.

    These aspects of persuasion have been true for centuries. Our moment, however, adds a complicating element — our social media systems.

    Scholars of rhetoric have long known that repetition is persuasive. Social media amplifies the power of persuasion. This might not improve democratic decision-making, but politicians must still recognize how slogans, memes and sound bites all become the resources for repetition and the grounds in which specific frames or stories begin to dominate conversations.

    Controlling what gets repeated and using figures that are repeatable are necessary contemporary considerations.

    To be clear, if you want to win an election: control the frame, talk about values more than policy, tell a compelling story, paint a bright future, and find ways to repeat, repeat, repeat.

    Robert Danisch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to win an election? Focus on persuasion, not policy – https://theconversation.com/how-to-win-an-election-focus-on-persuasion-not-policy-248733

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –