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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: How plants are able to remember stress without a brain

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jurriaan Ton, Professor of Plant Environmental Signalling, University of Sheffield

    Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock

    It may sound strange but plants can remember stress. Scientists are still learning about how plants do this without a brain. But with climate change threatening crops around the world, understanding plant stress memory could help food crops become more resilient.

    Since their colonisation of the land 500 million years ago, plants have evolved ways to defend themselves against pests and disease. One of their most fascinating abilities is to “remember” stressful encounters and use this memory to defend themselves.

    This phenomenon, called immune priming, is similar to how vaccines help humans build immunity but is based on different mechanisms.

    Many people think of plants as nice-looking greens. Essential for clean air, yes, but simple organisms. A step change in research is shaking up the way scientists think about plants: they are far more complex and more like us than you might imagine. This blossoming field of science is too delightful to do it justice in one or two stories.

    This story is part of a series, Plant Curious, exploring scientific studies that challenge the way you view plantlife.

    So how do they do it without a brain?

    Plants are genetically resistant to the vast majority of potentially harmful microbes. However, a small number of microbes have evolved the ability to suppress innate immunity, enabling them to infect organisms and cause disease.

    This is why vertebrates, including humans, have evolved a mobile immune system that relies on B and T memory cells. These memory cells are activated by exposure to a disease or vaccinations, which helps us become more resistant to recurrent infections.

    Plants don’t have specialised cells to acquire immune memory. Instead, they rely on so-called “epigenetic” changes within their cells to store information about past attacks and prime their innate immune system. Once primed, plants can resist pests and diseases better – even if they were genetically susceptible to begin with.

    Research over the past ten to 15 years has shown that repeated and prolonged exposure to pests or diseases can cause long-lasting epigenetic changes to plant DNA without altering the underlying sequence of the DNA. This enables plants to stay in a primed defence state.

    Immune priming has been reported in different plants species, ranging from short-lived annuals, such as thale cress Arabidopsis thaliana that lives several weeks, to long-living tree species, such as Norway spruce that can live up to 400 years.

    Immune priming comes at a cost for the plant though, such as reduced growth. So the primed memory is reversible and dwindles over longer periods without stress. However, depending on the strength of the stress stimulus, priming can be lifelong and even be transmitted to following generations. The stronger the stress, the longer plants remember.

    Plants constantly change the activity of their genes in order to develop and adapt to their environment. Genes can be switched off over prolonged periods of time by epigenetic changes. In plants, these changes most frequently happen at transposons (also known as “jumping genes”) – pieces of DNA that can move within the genome. Transposons are usually inactive because they can cause mutations. But stress changes the epigenetic activity in the plant cell that can partially “wake them up”.

    Plants can pass on stress memories down the generations.
    boommavel/Shutterstock

    This drives the establishment and maintenance of long-lasting memory in plants.

    In plants that haven’t yet experienced stress, defence genes are mostly inactive to prevent unnecessary and costly immune activity. Lasting epigenetic changes to transposons after recovery from disease can prime defence genes for a faster and stronger activation upon recurrent stress. Although scientists are still uncovering exactly how this works, it is clear that epigenetic changes at these jumping genes play an essential role in helping plants adapt to threats.

    Soil as a memory bank

    Plants don’t only rely on internal epigenetic memory to improve their resilience against pests and diseases. They can also use their environment to store stress memory. When under attack, plants release chemicals from their roots, attracting helpful microbes that can suppress diseases. If this soil conditioning is strong enough, it can leave a long-lasting “soil legacy” that can benefit plants of the next generation. Once the soil is conditioned, these helpful microbes stay near plant roots to help the plant fight off diseases.

    In some plant species, such as maize, scientists have identified the secondary metabolites driving this external stress memory. These are specialised metabolites that are not essential for the cell’s primary metabolism. They often play a role in defence or other forms of environmental signalling, such as attracting beneficial microbes or insects.

    Some of the genes controlling these root chemicals are regulated by stress-responsive epigenetic mechanisms. This indicates that the mechanisms driving internal and external plant memory are interconnected.

    Understanding how plants store and use stress memories could revolutionise crop protection. Harnessing plants’ natural ability to cope with pests and diseases might help us reduce reliance on chemical pesticides and create crops that are better at handling environmental stresses. As we face growing challenges from human-made climate change and rising food demands, this research could offer promising tools to develop more sustainable crop protection schemes.

    Jurriaan Ton receives funding from UKRI-BBSRC (BB/W015250/1)

    – ref. How plants are able to remember stress without a brain – https://theconversation.com/how-plants-are-able-to-remember-stress-without-a-brain-246615

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Electronic muscle stimulators are supposed to boost blood flow to your legs – here’s what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Houghton, Clinical Lecturer in Vascular Surgery, University of Leicester

    vebboy/Shutterstock

    Google “improve leg circulation” and you may see sponsored ads for electronic muscle stimulators that claim to boost blood flow to your feet. But is there any evidence they work?

    Peripheral artery disease is a surprisingly common condition affecting more than one in ten people aged over 65 in the UK. Caused by narrowings and blockages in the arteries of the legs, it can lead to intermittent claudication – calf pain while walking – what the Dutch call “window-shopping legs”.

    Leg pain during walking significantly affects the everyday life of those with peripheral artery disease. It limits their ability to take part in social activities, daily tasks such as shopping and it may even impact on a person’s employment. Unsurprisingly, those with shorter pain-free walking distances report worse quality of life and major impacts on their mental wellbeing.

    Peripheral artery disease is not a benign condition. Five years from diagnosis, four in ten people will have died and another one in ten will have had a major leg amputation.

    So, the aims of treatment for peripheral artery disease are to reduce both the risk of heart attacks – the biggest cause of death – and progression to the end-stage of the disease where amputation is necessary unless surgery is performed to restore blood flow. The most important elements to optimal medical treatment are blood-thinning medications such as aspirin, cholesterol-lowering medications such as statins, and stopping smoking.

    For those with pain when walking the treatment with one of the biggest effects on walking distance and quality of life is, well… walking. The best results are seen in those who take part in a supervised exercise programme which has consistently been shown to be more cost effective than surgery for claudication. In fact, one large randomised trial demonstrated similar results from supervised exercise to stenting a blocked artery in improving walking distance and quality of life.

    Unfortunately supervised exercise therapy is only available to about half of UK peripheral artery disease patients despite it being recommended by Nice.

    What about electrical muscle stimulation?

    These devices work by using electronic impulses to cause the muscles of the calf to repeatedly contract. Usually this is by indirect stimulation through the feet using an electronic footplate, somewhat resembling a foot spa – although no water needed is used. These devices appear to be safe and well tolerated, with no adverse events reported.

    Studies have demonstrated they do indeed increase arterial blood flow in the calf, both in healthy people and in those with peripheral artery disease. However, these increases in blood flow are present only while using the device.

    A 2023 trial of 200 patients with peripheral artery disease assessed the effect of electrical muscle stimulation on walking distance. The study recruited half of the participants from centres with supervised exercise programmes and half from those without. All patients received optimal medical therapy.

    The researchers randomly allocated half of the participants to receive electrical muscle stimulation. These patients were given the device and told to use it for 30 minutes at least once a day for three months.

    After three months there was no difference in the maximum walking distance between those that did and did not receive electrical muscle stimulation.

    However, there was an improvement in walking distance in those that received electrical muscle stimulation in addition to supervised exercise therapy compared to those that received supervised exercise alone.

    Additionally, patients who received electrical muscle stimulation reported lower pain scores and better scores for the health domain in quality of life questionnaires – although they recorded no overall quality of life benefit. This demonstrates that while there may be benefit of the device on symptoms, it may only be small or experienced by a limited proportion of patients.

    Transcutaneous nerve stimulation (Tens) has also been used in people with peripheral artery disease. This uses weaker electrical impulses to stimulate nerve fibres and block the transmission of pain signals.

    A review of published studies highlighted that Tens may have some benefit in improving walking distance. The included studies were relatively small though and not all were randomised trials. This means the findings may not be just due to the effect of Tens or applicable to a wider group of patients.

    While these electrical stimulation devices show some promise, it is not clear if they are cost effective nor are they currently recommended in guidelines for treating peripheral artery disease.

    Certainly, some people with peripheral artery disease do report benefit from using these devices. But they should only be used in addition to the cornerstones of peripheral artery disease treatment: medication, stopping smoking and walking as much as possible.

    John Houghton receives funding from the George Davies Charitable Trust and the National Institute for Health and Care Research. He is the trainee representative for the Vascular Surgery Specialist Advisory Committee and is a member of the UK Labour Party.

    – ref. Electronic muscle stimulators are supposed to boost blood flow to your legs – here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/electronic-muscle-stimulators-are-supposed-to-boost-blood-flow-to-your-legs-heres-what-the-evidence-says-248340

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Brutalism: Oscar-nominated film has revived interest in a controversial architectural legacy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gleb Redko, PhD Researcher in Punk, Brutalism & Psychogeography, School of Architecture Art & Design, University of Portsmouth

    With ten Oscar nominations, The Brutalist has reignited the debate over the legacy of brutalism. The polarising architectural style was shaped by post-war hopes for a better future. But it was also, as historian Adrian Forty argues in his book Concrete and Culture (2012), an “expression of melancholy, the work of a civilisation that had all but destroyed itself in the second world war”.

    The fictional architect at centre of The Brutalist, László Tóth, is an Austro-Hungarian modernist and concentration-camp survivor who moves to America to rebuild his life. His designs, described as “machines”, are inspired by the trauma of camps like Buchenwald and Dachau.

    Emerging from the rubble of the second world war, brutalism became an architectural response to devastation and the pressing need for urban renewal. The destruction caused by the Blitz provided architects with opportunities to design environments reflecting the ideals of the new welfare state: equality, accessibility and functionality for the collective good.

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    This ethical foundation aimed to address the social needs of the post-war era, particularly in housing, education and public welfare infrastructure. Notable examples of the style include the Barbican estate and Southbank Centre in London.

    Architectural critic Reyner Banham, who coined the term brutalism in his 1966 work Brutalism: Ethic or Aesthetic, argued that the movement was more than an aesthetic choice. He championed the work of Alison and Peter Smithson, young British architects who played a crucial role in shaping brutalism through projects like Robin Hood Gardens in London’s Tower Hamlets. For Banham, brutalism was an ethical stance and a form of “radical philosophy” aiming to address the social needs of the post-war era.

    The brutalist style has, however, often been criticsed for what many perceived to be its unappealing, “ugly” aesthetic and alienating qualities. In 1988, King Charles famously compared the National Theatre in London to a nuclear plant, encapsulating the public’s mixed reactions. Similarly the situationists (a French anti-capitalist art movement) denounced brutalist housing estates as “machines for living”. They saw them as oppressive structures that stifled human connection.

    The perception of brutalism is highly dependent on context. In warmer climates like Marseille in France, the play of sunlight on raw concrete gave structures a sculptural quality. In the UK’s wet climate, however, exposed concrete weathered quickly, making buildings appear grey and neglected.

    Yet for brutalist architects, this was never just about aesthetics. They saw their designs as expressions of honesty and social progress, rejecting ornamentation in favour of raw, functional materials that symbolised a new egalitarian society. The very qualities that critics saw as oppressive were, to its proponents, what made brutalism a radical and hopeful architecture.

    Rebellion and reclamation

    Despite their ethical intentions, brutalist buildings often appeared to have an alienating impact on their residents. In his book Making Dystopia (2018), architectural historian James Stevens Curl discusses the Canada Estate in Bermondsey, London, built in 1964, where tenants expressed their disaffection for the environment through acts of vandalism.

    By the 1970s, the optimism surrounding modernist and brutalist projects had begun to collapse, both figuratively and literally. One of the most infamous moments symbolising this failure was the Ronan Point disaster in 1968. A gas explosion on the 18th floor of this newly built tower block in east London caused a partial collapse. Four people were killed and serious concerns were raised about the safety and quality of post-war high-rise housing.

    This tragedy pushed the Clash’s Joe Strummer to write one of the band’s most notable songs, London’s Burning, in 1976. In the late 1970s and 1980s, punks splattered brutalist architecture with graffiti slogans echoing situationist critiques of modern urban life.

    Some referenced punk band names or song lyrics, showing how punk didn’t just adopt the attitude of the situationists but also their language and tactics. Jamie Reid, the architect of the Sex Pistols’ aesthetic, often used images of brutalist structures as a stark backdrop to his punk visuals.

    The punk movement reinterpreted the failure of brutalism not just as an architectural problem but as a broader societal collapse, highlighting issues of alienation, neglect and the erosion of post-war utopian ideals.



    Read more:
    Jamie Reid: the defiant punk art of the man behind the Sex Pistols’ iconic imagery

    Yet, in recent years, the brutalist aesthetic has found a new audience. Online communities, such as Reddit’s 1.5 million-member r/EvilBuildings reflect on buildings and surroundings captured by community members and the impressions these structures leave. Brutalist buildings frequently top the list.

    This renewed interest highlights the complex legacy of a style that was once widely criticised but continues to captivate a broader audience beyond architects.

    Brutalism’s dual legacy, a movement intended to create community but often seen as alienating, continues to shape debates in architecture and urban planning. The controversial nature of this style is evident in the demolition of prominent structures like the Smithsons’ Robin Hood Gardens (2018), the Tricorn Centre in Portsmouth (2004), and the currently ongoing demolition of Cumbernauld town centre in central Scotland.

    These demolitions highlight both brutalism’s polarised reception and the public reassessment of its value. These spaces are more than just concrete. They are sites of memory, rebellion, and ongoing cultural significance, continuously shaping and being shaped by the society around them.

    Gleb Redko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Brutalism: Oscar-nominated film has revived interest in a controversial architectural legacy – https://theconversation.com/brutalism-oscar-nominated-film-has-revived-interest-in-a-controversial-architectural-legacy-249627

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is ‘double pneumonia’, the condition that’s put Pope Francis in hospital?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian Oliver, Professor, School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Marco Iaccobucci Epp/Shutterstock

    Pope Francis has been in hospital for more than a week with what some media reports are now calling “double pneumonia”.

    The Vatican released a statement on Tuesday evening saying

    laboratory tests, chest X-rays, and the clinical condition of the Holy Father continue to present a complex picture.

    The 88-year-old Catholic leader has a long history of respiratory illness.

    So, what makes this bout of pneumonia – a severe lung infection – so “complex”? And how will it be treated?

    What is double pneumonia?

    Pneumonia is a serious infection that fills the lungs with liquid or pus and can make it difficult to breathe. People may also have chest pain, cough up green mucus and have a fever.

    “Double pneumonia” is not an official medical term. It may be being used to describe two different aspects of Pope Francis’s condition.

    1. A bilateral infection

    Pope Francis has pneumonia in both lungs. This is known as “bilateral pneumonia”.

    An infection in both lungs doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more severe, but location is important. It can make a difference which parts of the lung are affected.

    When just one part of the lung or one lung is affected, the person can continue to breathe using the other lung while their body fights the infection.

    However when both lungs are compromised, the person will be receiving very little oxygen.

    2. A polymicrobial infection

    The Vatican has also said the infection affecting Pope Francis’s lungs is “polymicrobial”.

    This means the infection is being caused by more than one kind of microorganism (or “pathogen”).

    So, the cause could be two (or more) different kinds of bacteria, or any combination of bacteria, virus and fungus. It’s vital to know what’s causing the infection to effectively treat it.

    How is it diagnosed?

    Usually, when someone presents with suspected pneumonia the hospital will sample their lungs with a sputum test or swab.

    They will often also undergo an X-ray, usually to confirm which parts of the lung are involved.

    Healthy lungs look “empty” on an X-ray, because they are filled with air. But pneumonia fills the lungs with fluid.

    This means it’s usually very easy to see where pneumonia is affecting them, because the infection shows up as solid white mass on the scan.

    Lungs infected with pneumonia will have solid white areas on an X-ray.
    Komsan Loonprom/Shutterstock

    How is it treated?

    The sputum or swab helps detect what is causing the infection and determine treatment. For example, a specific antibiotic will be used to target a certain bacterium.

    Usually this works well. But if the infection is polymicrobial, the normal treatment might not be effective.

    For example, the antibiotics may work on the bacteria. But if there’s also a virus – which can’t be treated with antibiotics – it may become the dominant pathogen driving the infection.

    As a result, the patient may initially respond well to medication and then begin deteriorating again.

    If the infection is caused by multiple bacteria, the patient might be given a broad-spectrum antibiotic rather than a single targeted drug.

    A viral infection is harder to treat, as the anti-viral drugs that are available aren’t very effective or targeted.

    In severe cases, a patient will also need to be in intensive care on a breathing machine because they can’t breathe alone. This helps make sure they receive enough oxygen while their body fights the infection.

    Who is most susceptible?

    It’s possible to recover, even from severe infections. However having pneumonia can damage the lungs, and this can make a repeat infection more likely.

    Most people will never have a severe infection from these same pathogens. They may only experience a minor cold or flu, because their immune system can adequately fight the infection.

    However, certain groups are much more vulnerable to developing a serious case of pneumonia.

    Risk factors include:

    • age: babies under two, whose immune systems are still developing, and adults over 65, who tend to have weakened immune systems

    • lung damage: previous infections can cause scarring

    • lung disease: for example, if you have emphysema or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    • being a smoker

    • immunosuppression: if your immune system is weakened, for example by medication you take after a transplant or during cancer treatment.

    Pope Francis has a number of these risk factors. The pontiff is 88 years old and has a history of respiratory illness.

    He also had pleurisy (a condition that inflames the lungs) as a young adult. As a result, he had part of one lung removed, making him susceptible to lung infections.

    On Tuesday, the Vatican said Pope Francis remains “in good spirits” while he receives medical care and is grateful for the support he has received.

    Brian Oliver receives funding from the NHMRC, and the ARC. He is affiliated with the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand, and the European Respiratory Society. He has given presentations on topics other than pneumonia at symposia organised by the pharmaceutical industry.

    Min Feng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is ‘double pneumonia’, the condition that’s put Pope Francis in hospital? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-double-pneumonia-the-condition-thats-put-pope-francis-in-hospital-250256

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is ‘double pneumonia’, the condition that’s put Pope Francis in hospital?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Brian Oliver, Professor, School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Marco Iaccobucci Epp/Shutterstock

    Pope Francis has been in hospital for more than a week with what some media reports are now calling “double pneumonia”.

    The Vatican released a statement on Tuesday evening saying

    laboratory tests, chest X-rays, and the clinical condition of the Holy Father continue to present a complex picture.

    The 88-year-old Catholic leader has a long history of respiratory illness.

    So, what makes this bout of pneumonia – a severe lung infection – so “complex”? And how will it be treated?

    What is double pneumonia?

    Pneumonia is a serious infection that fills the lungs with liquid or pus and can make it difficult to breathe. People may also have chest pain, cough up green mucus and have a fever.

    “Double pneumonia” is not an official medical term. It may be being used to describe two different aspects of Pope Francis’s condition.

    1. A bilateral infection

    Pope Francis has pneumonia in both lungs. This is known as “bilateral pneumonia”.

    An infection in both lungs doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more severe, but location is important. It can make a difference which parts of the lung are affected.

    When just one part of the lung or one lung is affected, the person can continue to breathe using the other lung while their body fights the infection.

    However when both lungs are compromised, the person will be receiving very little oxygen.

    2. A polymicrobial infection

    The Vatican has also said the infection affecting Pope Francis’s lungs is “polymicrobial”.

    This means the infection is being caused by more than one kind of microorganism (or “pathogen”).

    So, the cause could be two (or more) different kinds of bacteria, or any combination of bacteria, virus and fungus. It’s vital to know what’s causing the infection to effectively treat it.

    How is it diagnosed?

    Usually, when someone presents with suspected pneumonia the hospital will sample their lungs with a sputum test or swab.

    They will often also undergo an X-ray, usually to confirm which parts of the lung are involved.

    Healthy lungs look “empty” on an X-ray, because they are filled with air. But pneumonia fills the lungs with fluid.

    This means it’s usually very easy to see where pneumonia is affecting them, because the infection shows up as solid white mass on the scan.

    Lungs infected with pneumonia will have solid white areas on an X-ray.
    Komsan Loonprom/Shutterstock

    How is it treated?

    The sputum or swab helps detect what is causing the infection and determine treatment. For example, a specific antibiotic will be used to target a certain bacterium.

    Usually this works well. But if the infection is polymicrobial, the normal treatment might not be effective.

    For example, the antibiotics may work on the bacteria. But if there’s also a virus – which can’t be treated with antibiotics – it may become the dominant pathogen driving the infection.

    As a result, the patient may initially respond well to medication and then begin deteriorating again.

    If the infection is caused by multiple bacteria, the patient might be given a broad-spectrum antibiotic rather than a single targeted drug.

    A viral infection is harder to treat, as the anti-viral drugs that are available aren’t very effective or targeted.

    In severe cases, a patient will also need to be in intensive care on a breathing machine because they can’t breathe alone. This helps make sure they receive enough oxygen while their body fights the infection.

    Who is most susceptible?

    It’s possible to recover, even from severe infections. However having pneumonia can damage the lungs, and this can make a repeat infection more likely.

    Most people will never have a severe infection from these same pathogens. They may only experience a minor cold or flu, because their immune system can adequately fight the infection.

    However, certain groups are much more vulnerable to developing a serious case of pneumonia.

    Risk factors include:

    • age: babies under two, whose immune systems are still developing, and adults over 65, who tend to have weakened immune systems

    • lung damage: previous infections can cause scarring

    • lung disease: for example, if you have emphysema or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    • being a smoker

    • immunosuppression: if your immune system is weakened, for example by medication you take after a transplant or during cancer treatment.

    Pope Francis has a number of these risk factors. The pontiff is 88 years old and has a history of respiratory illness.

    He also had pleurisy (a condition that inflames the lungs) as a young adult. As a result, he had part of one lung removed, making him susceptible to lung infections.

    On Tuesday, the Vatican said Pope Francis remains “in good spirits” while he receives medical care and is grateful for the support he has received.

    Brian Oliver receives funding from the NHMRC, and the ARC. He is affiliated with the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand, and the European Respiratory Society. He has given presentations on topics other than pneumonia at symposia organised by the pharmaceutical industry.

    Min Feng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is ‘double pneumonia’, the condition that’s put Pope Francis in hospital? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-double-pneumonia-the-condition-thats-put-pope-francis-in-hospital-250256

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Insider threat: cyber security experts on giving Elon Musk and DOGE the keys to US government IT systems

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank den Hartog, Professor of Information Systems, Research Chair in Critical Infrastructure, University of Canberra

    A few weeks ago, word started to come out that the newly minted United States Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had acquired unprecedented access to multiple US government computer systems.

    DOGE employees – tech billionaire Elon Musk and his affiliates – have been granted access to sensitive personal and financial data, as well as other data critical for national security. This has created a national and international outcry, and serious concerns have been raised about data security, privacy and potential influence.

    A group of 14 state attorneys-general attempted to have DOGE’s access to certain federal systems restricted, but a judge has denied the request.

    Questions of trust

    What are the deeper reasons behind this outcry? After all, Musk is far from the first businessman to gain political power.

    There is, of course, US President Donald Trump himself, alongside many more on both sides of politics. Most of them kept running their businesses at arm’s length and went back to them after a stint in Washington.

    So why are so many people alarmed now, but not before? The key word here is trust. Surveys suggest many people don’t trust Musk with this kind of access.

    Does that mean we trusted the others? The foundation of modern cyber security is not to trust anything or anybody in the first place.

    So while a lack of trust in Musk is one reason for disquiet, another is a lack of trust in the current state of cyber security in US government systems and procedures. And for good reason.

    An insider threat

    The situation in the US raises the spectre of what cyber experts call an “insider threat”. These concern cyber security incidents caused by people who have authorised access to systems and data.

    Cyber security relies on controlling the so-called “CIA triad” of confidentiality, integrity and availability. Insider threats can compromise all three.

    Authentication and subsequent authorisation of access has traditionally been an important measure to prevent cyber incidents from occurring. But apparently, that is not sufficient any more.

    Perhaps the most famous insider incident in history is Edward Snowden’s leak of classified documents from the US National Security Agency in 2013. Australia too has had its share of insider breaches – the 2000 Maroochy Shire attack is still a textbook example.

    Musk and his DOGE colleagues have now become insiders.

    How to reduce the risk of insider threat

    There are plenty of strategies organisations can follow to reduce the risk of insider threats:

    • more rigorous vetting of employees

    • giving users only the bare minimum access and privileges they need

    • continuously auditing who has access to what, and restricting access immediately when needed

    • authenticating and authorising users every time they access a different system or file (this is part of what is called a “zero trust architecture”)

    • monitoring for unusual behaviour regarding insiders accessing systems and files

    • developing and nurturing a cyber-aware culture in the organisation.

    In government systems, the public should be able to trust these procedures are being rigorously applied. However, when it comes to Musk and DOGE, it seems they are not. And that’s where the core of the problem lies.

    Clearances and a lack of care

    DOGE employees without security clearance reportedly have access to classified systems which would normally be considered quite sensitive.

    However, even security clearances offer no iron-clad guarantees.

    Security clearances assume someone can be trusted based on their past. But past performance can never guarantee the future.

    In the US, obtaining and holding a security clearance has become a status symbol. A clearance may also be a golden ticket to high-paying jobs and power, and hence subject to politics rather than independent judgement.

    And it seems little care has been taken to keep users’ access and privileges to a minimum.

    You might think DOGE’s employees, tasked with seeking out inefficiency, would only need read-only access to the US government IT systems. However, at least one of them temporarily had “write” access to the systems of the treasury, according to reports, enabling him to alter code controlling trillions in federal spending.

    It all comes down to trust

    Even if all possible access control and vetting procedures are in place and working perfectly, there will always be the problem of how to declassify information.

    Or to put it another way: how do you make somebody forget everything they knew when their clearance or access is revoked or downgraded?

    What Musk has seen, he can never unsee. And there is only so much that can be done to prevent this knowledge from leaking.

    Even if all procedures to protect against insider threats are followed perfectly (and they aren’t), nothing is 100% secure.

    We would still need a certain level of public trust that the obtained data and information would be dealt with responsibly. Has trust in Musk and his affiliates reached that level?

    According to recent polling, public opinion is still divided.

    Frank den Hartog is the Cisco Research Chair in Critical Infrastructure at the University of Canberra. He is an Adjunct Fellow at the University of New South Wales.

    Abu Barkat Ullah is a steering committee member for the Canberra Cyber Hub and has received several research grants from Australian government and private organisations.

    – ref. Insider threat: cyber security experts on giving Elon Musk and DOGE the keys to US government IT systems – https://theconversation.com/insider-threat-cyber-security-experts-on-giving-elon-musk-and-doge-the-keys-to-us-government-it-systems-250046

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Official interest rates have been cut, but not everyone is a winner

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

    Gumbariya/Shutterstock

    The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years has triggered a round of celebration.

    Mortgage holders are cheering the fact their monthly repayments are now slightly lower, while the Albanese government hopes the small easing in the cost of living will lift voters’ moods.

    This is despite the Reserve Bank’s warnings that further rate cuts may not eventuate, depending on how much further progress is made on taming inflation.

    But it’s important to remember not everybody benefits from an interest rate cut. Some will be worse off.

    Savers lose out

    Not all Australian households are net borrowers. Many are net savers, retirees or prospective homebuyers, who actually lose out when rates fall.

    For starters, only about a third of households are in hock to the banks when it comes to a monthly mortgage repayment.

    Another third of households have paid off their mortgage entirely, and so don’t benefit from a reduction in mortgage interest rates. And the remaining third are renters, who also don’t pay a mortgage.

    So while this news is generally a good thing for borrowers, a fall in mortgage rates only directly benefits a minority of households.

    Here are some of the ways lower interest rates might actually hurt rather than help the typical Australian household.

    Higher house prices

    One of the most immediate effects of lower interest rates is their impact on the housing market. With cheaper borrowing costs, more buyers can afford larger loans, bidding up house prices. This is great if you already own a home, but terrible if you’re still trying to buy one.

    For young Australians locked out of home ownership, a rate cut makes things even harder. It drives prices higher, forcing prospective buyers to stretch their finances further just to get a foot in the market. Reserve Bank calculations suggest that, in the long run, higher house prices from lower rates can outweigh the benefit of lower mortgage repayments.

    Lower returns on savings

    If you’re a saver rather than a borrower, interest rate cuts are unequivocally bad news. Whether you’re saving for a home deposit, retirement, or just an emergency fund, lower rates mean you earn less on your bank deposits. The money in your savings account is now growing more slowly, making it harder to build wealth over time.

    Indeed, more than 20 banks actually cut their term deposit rates in advance of the Reserve Bank’s decision on Tuesday, according to Canstar research.

    Analysis of HILDA data, which surveys household wealth and income, suggests net savers tend to be younger households without property, retirees living off savings, and those who are not in full-time employment. For these groups, lower rates mean less income and fewer financial opportunities.

    Retirees will feel the squeeze

    Many retirees rely on income from interest-bearing assets such as term deposits or cash savings. When rates fall, their returns shrink. The cost-of-living crisis has made it harder for retirees on a fixed income to fund their lifestyles, and a rate cut only makes things worse.

    While some retirees have exposure to the stock market via superannuation, many prefer the stability of cash savings. With rates falling, they face the tough choice of either reducing their spending or taking on more investment risk in their old age.

    Bad news for the dollar, and overseas travellers

    When the Reserve Bank cuts rates, it tends to weaken the Australian dollar. A weaker dollar makes overseas travel more expensive for Australians. That pint of beer in London, that piña colada in Puerto Rico, or that shopping trip to New York all become pricier.

    For Australians planning international holidays, rate cuts are a blow. A strong Australian dollar makes travel cheaper, and lower rates work against that. So while mortgage holders might celebrate, anyone hoping to travel overseas finds themselves worse off.

    woman in a paris street
    A weaker dollar will make overseas travel more expensive.
    Shutterstock



    Read more:
    Heading on an overseas holiday? The Australian dollar tumbled this week – but that’s not bad news for everyone

    More expensive imports

    Just as a weaker Australian dollar makes travel more expensive, it also increases the cost of imported goods. And Australia imports a lot – especially cars and petrol.

    Since the closure of domestic car manufacturing, all new vehicles sold in Australia are imported. Petrol, the second-largest import, is also sensitive to currency fluctuations. When the Australian dollar weakens due to lower interest rates, the cost of these essential goods rises. For the millions of Australians who rely on their cars for daily life, this is a significant financial burden.

    This isn’t to say rate cuts don’t benefit a large portion of Australians. Anyone with a significant mortgage debt will find themselves with lower monthly repayments, and that’s undoubtedly a financial relief.

    But the public narrative around interest rates tends to treat cuts as a universal good, ignoring the many Australians who are left worse off.

    Falling interest rates are a sign the high inflation that has caused the cost-of-living crisis has abated. That is an economic success that ought to be celebrated. But that now rates are falling again, we should at least acknowledge the costs that come with them.

    The Conversation

    Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Official interest rates have been cut, but not everyone is a winner – https://theconversation.com/official-interest-rates-have-been-cut-but-not-everyone-is-a-winner-250140

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Danielle Wood on how to trim back housing regulations

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Housing supply in Australia will be a key battleground in the election campaign. With home ownership more and more out of reach for young and not so young Australians, red tape and low productivity are strangling the builder industry just when it needs to be stepping up.

    The productivity Commission, the government’s independent think tank, has a new report report pointing to ways governments need to address the issues. In this podcast we talk to commission chair Danielle Wood about the housing challenge, as well as Australia’s parlous productivity performance generally and her drive to get some fresh ideas on how to improve it.

    On one of the report’s main recommendation, cutting red tape for construction approvals, Wood says,

    I like to think of regulation as a bit like a hedge. […] There’s almost an unwavering tendency for it to grow over time if you don’t clip it back. And I think in housing that’s particularly true. You have multiple levels of government involved, particularly local governments and state governments. Lots of different policy objectives in play. So obviously, quality and safety being pivotal, local amenity, heritage, traffic, environmental, accessibility.

    Lots and lots of decisions are taken, often without considering the trade off. And every time we add new regulations or more complex regulations, that imposes a cost. And ultimately that is a drag on housing, productivity and supply.

    So what should be done?

    We’ve certainly said we think there should be a good look at the national construction code, which is one source of regulatory burden where we think there’s scope to improve. I would love to see state governments – and I think they are turning their mind to this – to look at this question of just the sheer amount of regulation, the timeframes for approvals and look to ways to streamline the burden and also help develop and builders coordinate their way through that process more smoothly.

    On why productivity in construction in particular has fallen so far, Wood explains,

    You do not see many sectors go backwards in productivity  over that sort of time horizon. One reason is that our homes are bigger and better quality. So I think that is worth noting. If we adjust for that, productivity has declined, but only by 12% rather than 50%.

    We haven’t seen the same sort of innovation in homebuilding that we’ve seen in other parts of the economy. We still essentially build most houses the same way we did 100 years ago so we haven’t had that technological change driver of productivity. It’s an industry that’s characterised by lack of scale.

    And then there are workforce challenges as well. And, you know, we all hear a lot about the challenge of attracting and retaining skilled trades workers. You know, that can make it hard, particularly building.

    The Productivity Commission asked for submissions from the public on how to improve Australia’s productivity more generally. Wood is happy with how the initiaive is going,

    It’s been worth the effort. We’ve actually ended up with more than 500 submissions in the end, And they’re from a mix from individuals, from businesses, from organisations. But for me, the beauty is being able to hear from people that we wouldn’t normally hear from in our reviews and the point is that all of us interact with aspects of government policy every day in our lives and I think we absolutely heard that through the submissions.

    There were some fun ones there – high quality Japanese public toilets, more freely available free coffee. But more generally, I mean, we heard from small business owners about impacts of red tape and regulation [and] lots of interest in education policy. Unsurprisingly, again, it touches a lot of our lives, but looking for things like more work experience in schools, trying to build more industry-relevant skills into higher education.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Danielle Wood on how to trim back housing regulations – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-danielle-wood-on-how-to-trim-back-housing-regulations-250260

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump wants to do a deal for Ukraine’s critical minerals. Will Zelensky give him what he wants – or will Putin?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Alexander Korolev, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, UNSW Sydney

    The United States and Russia agreed to work on a plan to end the war in Ukraine at high-level talks in Saudi Arabia this week. Ukrainian and European representatives were pointedly not invited to take part.

    US President Donald Trump seemingly entered into these negotiations prepared to capitulate on two main points that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been seeking. Russia is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO and wants to retain Ukrainian territory captured since its invasion of Crimea in 2014.

    Such a dramatic shift in Washington’s approach to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security has undermined Western-Ukrainian unity on the acceptable parameters around ending the war.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine won’t accept a deal negotiated without them. Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton said Trump “effectively surrendered” to Putin.

    European leaders, too, are concerned after they were excluded from the Saudi talks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said:

    This does not mean that peace can be dictated and that Ukraine must accept what is presented to it.

    Many believe Trump’s moves to splinter this trans-Atlantic front against Russia send a signal that Washington is
    abandoning its commitment to European security.

    However, there’s another important factor at play in Trump’s actions: the intensifying global competition over critical minerals. Trump wants to secure access to Ukraine’s vast reserves of these minerals, even if it means breaking with the US’ traditional allies in the European Union.

    Why are Ukraine’s minerals so valuable

    According to some reports, Ukraine has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified as critical by the EU. These include:

    • lithium and cobalt, used in rechargeable battery production
    • scandium, used for aerospace industry components
    • tantalum, used for electronic equipment
    • titanium, used in the aerospace, medical, automotive and marine industries
    • nickel ore, manganese, beryllium, hafnium, magnesium, zirconium and others, used in the aerospace, defence and nuclear industries.

    China currently dominates the world’s supply chains of these minerals – it is the largest source of US imports of 26 of the 50 minerals classified as critical by the United States Geological Survey.

    This is the reason behind Trump’s suggestion last week that the US be granted 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as reimbursement for the billions of dollars in weapons and support it has provided to Kyiv since the war began.

    The problem, however, is that at least 40% of Ukraine’s minerals are currently under Russian occupation in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions of the country. (Other sources put this figure as high as 70%.)

    Concerned about Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Zelensky has publicly rejected the US demand for half of Ukraine’s mineral resources, because the proposal does not include security guarantees. It only vaguely referred to payment for future aid, according to reports.

    In response, the White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said:

    President Zelensky is being short-sighted about the excellent opportunity the Trump administration has presented the Ukraine.

    What kind of deal could be made?

    A big question ahead of any peace negotiations over Ukraine is whether commercially-minded Trump would be willing to accept a counter-proposal from Putin.

    Since Russia currently controls large swathes of mineral-rich eastern Ukraine, Putin may be willing to offer Trump an exclusive critical minerals deal in exchange for the US formally committing to not restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and not letting the country into NATO.

    Ukraine, meanwhile, may be angling for its own minerals deal with European countries in exchange for their continued support. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed his country’s willingness to set up joint ventures with the EU in this area:

    We could replace Russian titanium on the European market, contributing to the development of both the EU’s civilian industry and advanced military technologies.

    He also said the project of rebuilding Ukraine could be a boon for the entire bloc.

    The European Commission has recommended a policy of encouraging Ukraine to export these materials to the EU. In response, authorities in Kyiv started working out the necessary regulatory and legal measures to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s resource strategy.

    With so many powers keen to access its minerals, Ukraine is in an extremely complex and hard-to-navigate geopolitical situation.

    Zelensky’s bet on the EU, instead of the US, might be right, given the growing rift between Brussels and Washington over Ukraine’s future. But as Thucydides, the ancient Greek historian, once said, the odds may be stacked against it:

    Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

    Alexander Korolev does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump wants to do a deal for Ukraine’s critical minerals. Will Zelensky give him what he wants – or will Putin? – https://theconversation.com/trump-wants-to-do-a-deal-for-ukraines-critical-minerals-will-zelensky-give-him-what-he-wants-or-will-putin-250064

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Civics education is at an all-time low in Australia. Mapping our ‘civic journeys’ may help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Prosser, Professor of Public Policy and Leadership, UNSW Sydney

    Although Australia has a strong and proud democracy, it nonetheless faces important challenges.

    Among these, youth democratic engagement and civics education have been matters of national concern for more than two decades.

    With the latest national curriculum testing showing the lowest levels of civics on record, and a parliamentary inquiry finding that civics education is not working in Australia, it is timely to ask why, after so much attention over so many years, so little has changed.

    One of the potential explanations for this is the difficulties researchers face collecting evidence on what works in civics education and engagement programs long-term. The importance of the availability of this evidence for political and policy leaders has been reinforced by calls for a more robust understanding of democratic literacy and civics engagement across the lifecourse.

    Importantly, new UK-based research, currently being applied in Australia by UNSW, seeks to address this vital data and decision making gap.



    Read more:
    Australian students just recorded the lowest civics scores since testing began. But young people do care about politics

    Identifying the gaps in democratic evidence

    In Australia, there is a well-documented decline in civics education and public trust. However, a common theme in the research is that it is easier to measure decline and disaffection than to identify what works.

    While many inspirational initiatives have been publicly and privately funded in Australia, they tend to be siloed, small and difficult to assess.

    In the UK, research has revealed that, historically, there had been no clear coordination or alignment of civic learning, engagement, and participation initiatives across national and local government. Moreover, it found there was little long-term commitment to civic initiatives, with many not outliving the relevant government or minister who initiated them.

    Prominent recent reports in Australia suggest a similar situation.

    Meanwhile, research indicates that fostering democratic participation and resilience is an ongoing process across people’s lives. But how to best gather and use data on this life process remains a challenge.

    It is a response to such research and policy challenges that is at the core of the “civic journey” concept.

    Effective civics education should go beyond just the school years.
    Shutterstock

    What are ‘civic journeys’?

    The notion of journeys in human experience is not new. Often, education, health and social sectors seek to map client journeys as part of effectiveness and equity analyses. In the civic context, the notion of journey is applied to democratic literacy, civic momentum, transformative action and lifelong engagement. In other words, it’s not just about civics education at school.

    The civic journey concept originated in the UK. At its core is an intention to establish “an integrated and high-quality, seamless tapestry of opportunities” to learn about and engage in the democratic process and civic life.

    The UK civic journeys initiative has informed research into youth as a fundamental stage in citizens’ life-long journeys. It noted that the opportunity to experience democracy (be citizens) was as important as the education to understand democracy (become citizens) in shaping democratic literacy and participation. But crucially, both were forged during key transitions within childhood and adolescence.

    Further, the UK study identified the importance of entry, exit and re-entry into political and civic learning and activity at different points of youth transitions to adulthood and throughout adult life. Put another way, it found that “hot spots” of high engagement, “cold spots” of disengagement and “black spot” openings to extremism all coalesced around major transition points in the life course.

    The civic journey approach also highlighted the importance of connecting volunteering and other forms of civic activism with formal approaches to civics education and youth democratic participation. This highlights the importance of linking youth civic socialisation programmes in schools, local communities, and online.

    When understood and mapped, these points can be prioritised for attention.

    A uniquely Australian approach to civic journeys

    The adaptation of civic journeys for research and policy provides an important opportunity. With its focus around collecting data on outcomes, it helps identify what works in the democratic experiences of citizens at different stages of their lives. When applied to the full life course, it supports the most effective allocation of public resources to interventions.

    The civic journey metaphor also helps guide future work in this space. Such an approach could support governments with their interest in better coordination, design and funding of long-term data to identify the best initiatives.

    There is also the potential to apply the civic journey concept in a multicultural context. Civic journeys can be used as a lens to examine the diverse journeys in and between different cultural groups to help preempt and mitigate disruption. This in turn helps build a collective democratic journey. Further, it could be used to identify the “black spots” and reduce exposure to alienation or extremism.

    In summary, the civic journeys approach has significant potential to better understand and shape the individual and collective experiences of Australians across the life course. It can also help build a national narrative underpinning ongoing work to further strengthen Australia’s civics education and democracy.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Civics education is at an all-time low in Australia. Mapping our ‘civic journeys’ may help – https://theconversation.com/civics-education-is-at-an-all-time-low-in-australia-mapping-our-civic-journeys-may-help-250138

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump wants to do a deal for Ukraine’s critical minerals. Will Zelensky give him what he wants – or will Putin?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Korolev, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, UNSW Sydney

    The United States and Russia agreed to work on a plan to end the war in Ukraine at high-level talks in Saudi Arabia this week. Ukrainian and European representatives were pointedly not invited to take part.

    US President Donald Trump seemingly entered into these negotiations prepared to capitulate on two main points that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been seeking. Russia is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO and wants to retain Ukrainian territory captured since its invasion of Crimea in 2014.

    Such a dramatic shift in Washington’s approach to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security has undermined Western-Ukrainian unity on the acceptable parameters around ending the war.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine won’t accept a deal negotiated without them. Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton said Trump “effectively surrendered” to Putin.

    European leaders, too, are concerned after they were excluded from the Saudi talks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said:

    This does not mean that peace can be dictated and that Ukraine must accept what is presented to it.

    Many believe Trump’s moves to splinter this trans-Atlantic front against Russia send a signal that Washington is
    abandoning its commitment to European security.

    However, there’s another important factor at play in Trump’s actions: the intensifying global competition over critical minerals. Trump wants to secure access to Ukraine’s vast reserves of these minerals, even if it means breaking with the US’ traditional allies in the European Union.

    Why are Ukraine’s minerals so valuable

    According to some reports, Ukraine has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified as critical by the EU. These include:

    • lithium and cobalt, used in rechargeable battery production
    • scandium, used for aerospace industry components
    • tantalum, used for electronic equipment
    • titanium, used in the aerospace, medical, automotive and marine industries
    • nickel ore, manganese, beryllium, hafnium, magnesium, zirconium and others, used in the aerospace, defence and nuclear industries.

    China currently dominates the world’s supply chains of these minerals – it is the largest source of US imports of 26 of the 50 minerals classified as critical by the United States Geological Survey.

    This is the reason behind Trump’s suggestion last week that the US be granted 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as reimbursement for the billions of dollars in weapons and support it has provided to Kyiv since the war began.

    The problem, however, is that at least 40% of Ukraine’s minerals are currently under Russian occupation in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions of the country. (Other sources put this figure as high as 70%.)

    Concerned about Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Zelensky has publicly rejected the US demand for half of Ukraine’s mineral resources, because the proposal does not include security guarantees. It only vaguely referred to payment for future aid, according to reports.

    In response, the White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said:

    President Zelensky is being short-sighted about the excellent opportunity the Trump administration has presented the Ukraine.

    What kind of deal could be made?

    A big question ahead of any peace negotiations over Ukraine is whether commercially-minded Trump would be willing to accept a counter-proposal from Putin.

    Since Russia currently controls large swathes of mineral-rich eastern Ukraine, Putin may be willing to offer Trump an exclusive critical minerals deal in exchange for the US formally committing to not restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and not letting the country into NATO.

    Ukraine, meanwhile, may be angling for its own minerals deal with European countries in exchange for their continued support. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed his country’s willingness to set up joint ventures with the EU in this area:

    We could replace Russian titanium on the European market, contributing to the development of both the EU’s civilian industry and advanced military technologies.

    He also said the project of rebuilding Ukraine could be a boon for the entire bloc.

    The European Commission has recommended a policy of encouraging Ukraine to export these materials to the EU. In response, authorities in Kyiv started working out the necessary regulatory and legal measures to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s resource strategy.

    With so many powers keen to access its minerals, Ukraine is in an extremely complex and hard-to-navigate geopolitical situation.

    Zelensky’s bet on the EU, instead of the US, might be right, given the growing rift between Brussels and Washington over Ukraine’s future. But as Thucydides, the ancient Greek historian, once said, the odds may be stacked against it:

    Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

    Alexander Korolev does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump wants to do a deal for Ukraine’s critical minerals. Will Zelensky give him what he wants – or will Putin? – https://theconversation.com/trump-wants-to-do-a-deal-for-ukraines-critical-minerals-will-zelensky-give-him-what-he-wants-or-will-putin-250064

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Feeding your baby butter won’t help them sleep through the night, whatever TikTok says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

    BaLL LunLa/Shutterstock

    Sleep is the holy grail for new parents. So no wonder many tired parents are looking for something to help their babies sleep.

    A TikTok trend claims giving your baby a tablespoon or two of butter in the evening will help them sleep more at night.

    As we’ll see, butter is just the latest food that promises to help babies sleep at night. But no single food can do this.

    So if you’re a new parent and desperate for a good night’s sleep, here’s what to try instead.

    Is my baby’s sleep normal?

    Babies need help to fall asleep, through feeding, movement (like rocking) or touch (like a cuddle or massage).

    Newborn babies also do not know night from day. Melatonin in breastmilk helps babies sleep more at night until they start to make this sleep-inducing hormone themselves. Bottlefed newborn babies do not have access to this melatonin. Regardless of how you feed your baby, it can take several months for them to develop a sleep pattern with longer stretches at night.

    Babies also sleep lighter than older children and adults. Light sleep helps ensure they continue breathing, protecting them from SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome). It also means they wake easily and often.

    The idea that babies should sleep deeply, alone and for long stretches, goes against their physiology. So “sleeping like a baby” usually means waking quite a lot at night.

    Yet, many parents have been asked whether their baby is sleeping through the night and is a “good baby”. The perception is that if a baby doesn’t sleep for long stretches at night, it must be “bad”.

    This may lead parents to say their babies sleep longer than they really do, setting unrealistic expectations for other new parents.

    Could feeding butter do any harm?

    The social pressure around baby sleep can add stress and anxiety for new parents. So the Tiktok trend about feeding babies butter may seem tempting.

    But giving babies any solid food before they are around six months old is not recommended. Babies’ digestive systems are not ready for solid food until they are around six months and feeding them before this can cause constipation or make them more likely to catch an illness. For this reason alone, you should not give your young baby butter.

    From about six months old, babies should be offered nutritious, iron-rich solid foods. Butter doesn’t fit this bill because it is almost all saturated fat. If butter replaces more nutritious foods, babies may not get the vitamins and minerals they need.

    Butter is just the latest food claimed to help babies sleep better at night.
    Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

    Butter is the latest in a long line of beliefs about certain foods making babies sleep longer at night. It was once thought that adding cereal or crushed arrowroot biscuits in bottle of milk before bedtime would make them sleep longer. Research found this did not increase sleep at all.

    Similarly, there is no evidence that giving babies butter before bed makes them sleep longer.

    In fact, research shows the foods babies eat make no difference to night waking.

    What else can I try?

    Waking overnight doesn’t necessarily mean a baby is hungry. And stopping breastfeeds or bottle feeds overnight doesn’t necessarily reduce night waking.

    Your baby could be too hot or cold, or need a nappy change. But some babies continue to wake at night even without an obvious problem.

    The good news is, sleeping is a skill babies develop naturally as they grow.

    Behavioural sleep interventions, known as “sleep training”, are not very effective in increasing overnight sleep. In one study, sleep training did not reduce the number of night wakes and only increased the length of the longest sleep by about 16 minutes. Sleep training is especially not recommended for babies under six months.

    The good news is that babies do eventually get the hang of sleeping at night.
    Miljan Zivkovic/Shutterstock

    Look after yourself

    If you’re missing out on sleep at night, try to have small naps during the day while your baby sleeps. Ask friends and family to do some chores to allow you to nap.

    If your baby is crying and you find yourself getting overwhelmed it is OK to put your baby down somewhere safe (like a cot or baby mat) and take some time to settle yourself.

    If your baby’s sleep pattern changes significantly or they haven’t slept at all for more than a day, or if your baby seems to have pain or a fever see your doctor, or family and child health nurse, as soon as possible.

    Some helpful resources

    If you think your baby is not sleeping well because of a breastfeeding problem, the Australian Breastfeeding Association has a national helpline. The association can also advise on co-sleeping.

    The charity Little Sparklers provides peer support for parents, including someone to chat to, about baby sleep. It also has helpful resources.

    UNICEF has resources about caring for your baby at night. And the UK-based Baby Sleep Info Source (Basis) provides evidence-based information about babies and sleep.

    Karleen Gribble is a volunteer breastfeeding educator and counsellor with the Australian Breastfeeding Association, a member of the Public Health Association of Australia and the World Public Health Nutrition Association.

    Naomi Hull is the National Coordinator of the World Breastfeeding Trends Initiative – Australia and is on the Executive of the Infant and Toddler Foods Research Alliance. Naomi is a volunteer breastfeeding counsellor with the Australian Breastfeeding Association, and a member of the International Lactation Consulants Association, the Lactation Consultants of Australia and New Zealand, the Public Health Association of Australia and the World Public Health Nutrition Association. Naomi receives funding from a RTP Stipend Scholarship from the federal government.

    Nina Chad has been the Infant and Young Child Feeding Consultant for the World Health Organization since 2021. She is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia, the World Public Health Nutrition Association and the Australian Breastfeeding Association.

    – ref. Feeding your baby butter won’t help them sleep through the night, whatever TikTok says – https://theconversation.com/feeding-your-baby-butter-wont-help-them-sleep-through-the-night-whatever-tiktok-says-249699

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With billions in ‘profit’ exempt from tax, changes to NZ’s charity rules are long overdue

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ranjana Gupta, Senior Lecturer, Accounting Department, Auckland University of Technology

    Jirsak/Shutterstock

    The profit made on every breakfast bowl of weet-bix is tax exempt, giving Sanitarium Health Food Company, owned by the Seventh-day Adventist Church, an advantage over other breakfast food companies. But this could be about to change.

    Under current rules, New Zealand’s charities are allowed to run businesses as long as the profits are not for personal gain. This means the government gives up millions in tax revenue from charities across the government.

    In December, Finance Minister Nicola Willis proposed revising the tax rules for charitable organisations. The changes are set to be announced with this year’s Budget. According to Willis, there was about NZ$2 billion of “profit” in the charitable sector that was not subject to tax.

    My new research – to be published later this year – looks at the integrity and fairness of the taxation framework that gives exemptions to charitable organisations competing directly with the for-profit sector.

    Striking the right balance between supporting legitimate charitable activities and preventing the abuse of tax concessions is crucial for ensuring a level playing field in the tax system.

    My study shows the tax exemption system in New Zealand, as it stands now, is not really fair and equitable. And it is past time for this to change.

    For the public benefit

    Under New Zealand’s charity law, a charitable organisation must operate for the public benefit and relieve the government of its burden to provide welfare services and assist disadvantaged people.

    A paper prepared by the Tax Working Group, an advisory group that looked at New Zealand’s tax system between 2017 and 2019, estimated 30% of registered charities were likely to have some sort of trading activities, such as second-hand stores.

    To be eligible for tax exemptions, any gains from businesses must be reinvested in the organisation’s charitable activities.

    The traditional justification for granting charitable organisations tax concessions is that they are dedicated to the greater good of society. The concessions are also meant to offset the disadvantages charities face in accessing capital.

    But by treating the producers of identical goods and services differently, there is a risk of compromising horizontal equity principles – basically the idea that taxpayers in similar positions should pay similar amounts of tax.

    There are concerns for the tax system’s integrity when charitable organisations shift their focus from providing a public good to providing private or unrelated goods (commercial activities).

    In these cases, it is clear that tax breaks should be limited.

    When governments offer tax breaks, they forego tax revenue. Governments end up having to raise money from other sources to meet their total tax collection targets, such as increasing tax rates on non-exempt firms, items and individuals.

    Taxing unrelated activities

    Overseas tax systems take a different view of exemptions for charities, offering examples for New Zealand to follow.

    In the United Kingdom, for example, charities cannot undertake commercial trading activities unrelated to their charitable purposes while claiming exemption from income tax. This ensures fair competition between commercial activities.

    In the United States, “unrelated business income” is subject to tax, restricting concessions to ensure the tax regime matches conventional tax policy or social welfare policy.

    In Australia, commercial trading unrelated to the charity’s core purpose is not allowed.

    Ensuring transparency

    To ensure greater transparency over who gets an exemption, the financial statements of all charities in New Zealand should also be filed on the Charities Register. These statements should be publicly available.

    Charities also need to become more responsible and equitable in their operations. There needs to be stricter regulation, and compliance measures should be implemented. These would prevent tax exemption misuse that benefits a specific group or individuals.

    The time for reviewing charitable purposes is long overdue in New Zealand, particularly given the UK and Australia have set out their concepts of charitable purposes in recent years.

    Ranjana Gupta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With billions in ‘profit’ exempt from tax, changes to NZ’s charity rules are long overdue – https://theconversation.com/with-billions-in-profit-exempt-from-tax-changes-to-nzs-charity-rules-are-long-overdue-249575

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vibes are something we feel but can’t quite explain. Now researchers want to study them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ash Watson, Scientia Fellow and Senior Lecturer, UNSW Sydney

    Shutterstock

    When we’re uncomfortable we say the “vibe is off”. When we’re having a good time we’re “vibing”. To assess the mood we do a “vibe check”. And when the atmosphere in the room changes we call it a “vibe shift”.

    In a broad sense, a “vibe” is something akin to a mood, atmosphere or energy.

    But this is an imperfect definition. Often, we’ll use this term to describe something we feel powerfully, but find hard to articulate.

    As journalist and cultural critic Kyle Chayka described in 2021, a vibe is “a placeholder for an unplaceable feeling or impression, an atmosphere that you couldn’t or didn’t want to put into words”.

    Being able to understand the subtleties of social interactions – that is, to “feel the vibes” – is extremely valuable, not just for our social interactions, but also for researchers who study people.

    What’s behind the rise of vibes? And how can sociologists like myself unpack “vibe culture” to make sense of the world?

    A history of vibes

    The nuance and complexity of vibes makes them an interesting cultural trend. Vibes can be very specific, but can also totally resist specificity.

    Australians (and fans of Australiana) will remember the iconic line from the beloved 1997 film The Castle: “It’s just the vibe of the thing… I rest my case.”

    While it may seem like a recent cultural development, vibe isn’t the first example of cryptic language being used to express an ambiguous thing or situation. There are similar concepts with long histories, such as “quintessence” in Ancient Greek philosophy and “auras” in mysticism.

    More recently, vibes rose in popularity through music including 1960s rock, epitomised by the Beach Boys (“pickin’ up good vibrations”) and Black American rap vernacular from the 1990s, such as in the song Vibes and Stuff by A Tribe Called Quest (“we got, we got, we got the vibes”).

    ‘Vibes’ rose in popularity through music including 1960s rock and 1990s Black American rap.
    Shutterstock

    While we don’t know when the term was first used as it is today, it seems to have taken hold in the 1970s.

    I trawled the online archive of The New Yorker and found an early mention of vibes in a 1971 report about communes in New York City.

    One interviewee spoke about the “vibration of togetherness” that drew them to the commune. Ending the day on the subway, the author Hendrik Hertzberg (now a senior editor at the magazine) “just sat there and soaked up the good vibes”.

    New uses and meanings have emerged in the years since.

    Vibes today

    As vibe is used in more ways, its meaning becomes expanded and diffused. A person or situation can have good vibes, bad vibes, weird vibes, laid-back vibes, or any other adjective you can imagine.

    Language is a central part of qualitative research. While new phrases and slang can be casual and superficial, they can also represent broader, more complex concepts. Vibe is a great example of this: a simple term that refers to something potent yet ephemeral, affecting yet ambiguous.

    By paying attention to the words people use to describe their experiences, sociologists can identify patterns of social interactions and shifts in social attitudes.

    Perhaps vibes work like a heuristic – a mental shortcut – but for feeling rather than thinking.

    People use heuristics to make everyday decisions or draw conclusions based on their experiences. Heuristics are, in essence, our common sense. And “vibes” might be best described as our common feeling, as they speak to a subtle aspect of how we collectively relate and interact.

    Sociologists have long studied complex common feelings. Ambivalence, for instance, has been a focus in research on digital privacy. Studying when and why people feel ambivalent about digital technology can help us understand their seemingly contradictory behaviour, such as when they say they are concerned about privacy, but do very little to protect their information.

    Ambivalence reveals how people make decisions via small, everyday compromises – moments and feelings that may be overlooked in quantitative research. A qualitative approach can help us to align policies with people’s real-world behaviours.

    Researchers react

    Then again, it’s difficult to study something people find hard to articulate in the first place. Asking participants to rank the “vibes” of something in a survey doesn’t quite work.

    So researchers are finding new ways to feel the vibe: to see what participants see, to feel what they feel and get a deeper understanding of their lived experiences.

    For instance, such study could provide insight into how senior clinicians make important decisions amid uncertainty. We already know making decisions in complex situations involves more than logic and rationality.

    In one Australian study published last year, researchers assessed how vibes have become part of online advertising algorithms. The researchers analysed the social media feeds of more than 200 young people, using the concept of vibes to show how advertising models attune to individuals and social groups.

    Such approaches can complement, or even update, tried-and-tested research methods, expanding on what we know about human relationships and experiences.

    Ash Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Vibes are something we feel but can’t quite explain. Now researchers want to study them – https://theconversation.com/vibes-are-something-we-feel-but-cant-quite-explain-now-researchers-want-to-study-them-247907

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Yes, Australia needs new homes – but they must be built to withstand disasters in a warmer world

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francesca Perugia, Senior Lecturer, School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University

    Australia’s housing crisis has created a push for fast-tracked construction. Federal, state and territory governments have set a target of 1.2 million new homes over five years.

    Increasing housing supply is essential. However, the homes must be thoughtfully located and designed, to avoid or withstand natural disasters such as bushfires, floods and cyclones.

    Recent severe weather, including floods in Queensland and severe storms in north-east Victoria, underscore the growing vulnerability of Australian homes. As climate change worsens, the risk becomes ever-greater.

    Our new research examined how disaster risk informs housing location and design in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. We spoke to planners, developers, insurers and housing providers, and found crucial problems that leave communities exposed.

    Getting to grips with disaster data

    Australia’s towns and cities are increasingly affected by natural disasters. The consequences extend beyond physical destruction to social, psychological and health effects. Disasters also harm the economy.

    Despite this, government housing policies and strategies often fail to adequately focus on natural disasters.

    Accurate, up-to-date information is crucial when seeking to protect new homes from natural disasters. Informed decisions typically require three types of data:

    • foundational: relating to vegetation, landscape features, weather, climate change and building characteristics such as height and materials

    • hazards: the risks of different disaster types such as historical flood data, maps of bushfire-prone areas and the recurrence of cyclones

    • vulnerability: the potential and actual impacts of natural disasters such as building damage, fatalities and injuries, displacement, psychological and health impacts and insurance losses.

    Our research, for the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, examined how data could be better used and shared to plan and deliver new housing and protect Australians from disasters.

    What we did

    We started by identifying what data was available in Australia for bushfire, flood and cyclone risk.
    Then we examined who owned and managed the data and how it was, or wasn’t, shared.

    The next step was to explore how decision-makers use the data to assess disaster risks for new housing. This involves interviews, workshops and questionnaires with:

    • government planning agencies (both state and local government)

    • housing providers (public and not-for-profit/community housing)

    • housing and land developers (private and public)

    • banks and insurers.

    What we found

    Overall, we found data on disaster risk was fragmented and inconsistent across multiple agencies, and not regularly updated.

    Decision-makers in state and local planning agencies often cannot access accurate information about disaster risk. This means they lack the power to restrict housing in areas prone to bushfires, floods or other extreme events.

    Flood hazard data is particularly problematic. One planner from Queensland described it as “patchy, of variable quality and currency and not always open source” – the latter meaning it was hard to access.

    Many households only learn about their disaster risk when discovering their homes are uninsurable or premiums are prohibitively high. Others become aware of the problem when premiums rise with an existing insurer.

    A community housing provider told us:

    I think the way people are finding out about risk now is by their insurance policies going up. That’s the market reality. When they get an increase in their insurance policy next year, that will wake them up that they are actually in a high-risk area.

    Data held by emergency service agencies and insurers is mostly inaccessible to planners, developers and households due to privacy and commercial sensitivities.

    However, this information is crucial. Government agencies should establish protocols to enable data-sharing while protecting privacy and commercial interests.

    Lack of transparency for homebuyers

    A recent report suggested only 29% of Australian home buyers know the disaster risks associated with the homes they live in.

    Disclosure statements are required by the vendor (seller) when marketing their house or land for sale. These vary between states and territories and, in most cases, do not compel the owner to reveal all known risks.

    For example, in Victoria, a vendor is required to disclose whether the land is in a designated bushfire-prone area, but not whether it is exposed to flooding.

    What’s more, a vendor motivated to sell a house is probably not the best source to provide accurate, impartial information about its exposure to disaster. This is better left to an independent entity such as a local council.

    Thorough investigations into a home’s disaster risk is usually at the discretion of the buyer.

    Making this information readily available to prospective homebuyers prior to purchase would allow more informed consumer decisions. It would also pressure governments and housing suppliers to address disaster risks.

    Where to next?

    Australia urgently needs a national framework to ensure data on housing and disaster risk is comprehensive, current and embedded in housing development decisions.

    The federal government’s Digital Transformation Agency could establish and implement this system, with input from state and local governments.

    Technology known as “spatial digital twins” could also vastly improve how disaster risk is assessed and communicated. These tools enable users to pull together and arrange large amounts of data, to visualise it in the form of models.

    For example, a spatial digital twin could combine real time flood sensor data with historical flooding patterns to predict and visualise flood risks before they occur. Federal and state governments are already investing in such technology.

    Australia’s push to increase housing supply must be matched with a commitment from governments to ensure the homes are safe, resilient and sustainable in the face of our changing climate.

    Addressing the housing crisis isn’t just about numbers – it’s about making sure homes are built in the right places, with the right protections, for the long-term safety of communities.

    Francesca Perugia
    receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)

    Courtney Babb receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and is a member of the Greens (WA).

    Steven Rowley receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Housing Industry Forecasting Group in Western Australia

    – ref. Yes, Australia needs new homes – but they must be built to withstand disasters in a warmer world – https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-needs-new-homes-but-they-must-be-built-to-withstand-disasters-in-a-warmer-world-249702

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Yanyan Hong, PhD Candidate in Communication and Media Studies, University of Adelaide

    IMDB

    On the surface, Ne Zha 2: The Sea’s Fury (2025), the sequel to the 2019 Chinese blockbuster Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child, is a high-octane, action-packed and visually stunning animated spectacle, full of hilarious moments and thrilling fight scenes.

    But beneath all that, it’s something much deeper: a bold re-imagining of Chinese traditional mythology, cultural history and philosophies.

    Unlike Hollywood’s classic hero’s journey, Ne Zha 2 is rooted in Chinese thought, weaving together ideas from Buddhism, Confucianism, Daoism, Mohism, Legalism and more.

    Through the story of a baby-faced warrior god who battles demons, it channels centuries of Chinese tradition into something refreshing, relevant and undeniably global.

    The film’s success speaks for itself. Directed by Yang Yu (aka Jiao Zi), Ne Zha 2 has shattered multiple global box office records, pulling in more than US$1 billion in China in just one week.

    It has entered the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, and has become the highest-grossing animated film – outperforming Inside Out 2 (2024).

    But what makes Ne Zha 2 so compelling beyond its visual spectacle? At its heart, it’s an inspiring story about identity, free will, self-determination and rebellion – ideas that resonate far beyond China.

    A child hero forged in myth and philosophy

    Ne Zha is a rebellious deity in traditional Chinese folklore – a boy born with immense superpower, who defies both divine and social expectations.

    Most people who know of Ne Zha will trace his legend back to Fengshen Yanyi, or Investiture of the Gods, a Ming Dynasty novel that blends mythology with historical elements.

    Ne Zha’s true origins, however, trace back to India.

    “Ne Zha” is a shortened transliteration of the Sanskrit Nalakuvara (or Nalakūbara), an Indian mythological figure who appears in Buddhist and Hindu mythology.

    As Buddhism spread to China during the Tang Dynasty, Ne Zha evolved from an intimidating guardian deity into the rebellious, fire-wheeled warrior we know today.

    In Ne Zha 2, this “fighting spirit” against authority and hierarchy is taken even further, turning the story into a deeper philosophical exploration of morality, fate, self-worth and power.

    Good and evil – a Daoist perspective

    One of the most thought-provoking aspects of Ne Zha 2 is how it challenges the idea of good and evil.

    In Daoist philosophy, evil and good, often known as Yin and Yang, are not absolute, but are rather shifting, interconnected forces.

    Through its two protagonists: the “Demon Pill” (Ne Zha) and his noble dragon prince buddy, “Spirit Pearl” (Ao Bing), the film beautifully reflects this Daoist idea of balance and self-discovery.

    Their merging further blurs the line between hero and villain and brings to life a core concept from the 2,400-year-old text Dao De Jing (Tao Te Ching), written around 400 BC by Chinese philosopher Laozi (also called Lao Tzu).

    Laozi emphasises that righteousness and villainy aren’t always what they seem. “When the world knows beauty as beauty, there arises ugliness,” he says.

    Those we assume to be noble may turn out to be dark inside, while those deemed evil might be fighting for what is right.

    Ne Zha’s character in the film embodies this Daoist philosophy. Echoing the Xisheng Jing, The Scripture of Western Ascension, he declares, “My fate is up to me, not the Heaven.”

    He is the demon child who is willing to die fighting for his own destiny, proving that even the smallest, most underestimated individual can change the world.

    Beyond family bonds: rebirth of Confucianism

    In one scene, Ne Zha is struck by the “heart-piercing curse”, a brutal spell that covers his body in ten thousand thorns, causing unbearable pain and keeping him under control by targeting his heart. Ne Zha’s human mother, Lady Yin, clings to him as his thorns pierce her skin – yet she refuses to let go.

    It’s a moment of heartbreak, parental love and inner awakening. As his mother takes her final breath, in Ne Zha’s grief, his body shatters into a million pieces. And then, he is reborn.

    This is the film’s emotional climax, in which the so-called demon child awakens to “Rén” (benevolence), a core Confucian virtue.

    Confucianism teaches that true morality isn’t imposed by rules but arises naturally from within. Ne Zha doesn’t just seek revenge, he awakes to fight for those who have been oppressed, embracing his identity with unwavering resolve.

    But perhaps the most profound transformation comes from the dragon prince Ao Bing. As the last hope of his people, burdened by centuries of expectation, he finally makes a choice, not for legacy, not for his ancestors, but for himself.

    In this moment, his once-imposing father Dragon King releases his grip: “Your path is yours to forge.”

    The weight of tradition gives way to something new, reflecting a changing China where younger generations are defining their own paths.

    Wisdom of Legalism and Mohism

    Beyond Daoist and Confucian ideals, Ne Zha 2 also weaves in Legalist reform and Mohist resistance. These philosophies challenge rigid hierarchies (or in Ne Zha’s case, “divine order”) and advocate for collective justice.

    Across Ne Zha’s three major trials and the climactic celestial-demon war, a brutal truth emerges: those deemed unworthy – whether groundhogs, mystical beings, or ordinary humans – are sacrificed to uphold the elite’s rule.

    Take the small groundhogs. Dressed in patched clothes, surviving on pumpkin porridge. They’ve never harmed anyone. Yet, they are mercilessly crushed in the name of celestial balance.

    Then there’s Shiji Niangniang, or Lady Rock, a recluse who harms no one. She indulges only in her own beauty and speaks to her enchanted mirror. Yet the heavens brand her a demon, sealing her fate.

    A similar cruelty befalls the Dragon Clan and the people of Chentangguan, all caught in a war where they are mere pawns on a celestial chessboard.

    Even the last battle is not just Ne Zha’s fight, but a battlefield showing the Chinese spirit of collectivism. Dragons, shrimp soldiers, crab generals, octopus warriors, humans and millions of goblins stand side by side to rewrite destiny.

    The celestial-demon war itself plays out like a lesson in Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which states that “All warfare is based on deception.” War is about strategy, resilience and the unstoppable will to rise.

    Ne Zha carries the weight of Eastern cultural essence: Daoist balance, Confucian ethics, Mohist resistance, Legalist reform and the strategic wisdom of The Art of War. It is a truly Chinese story, igniting next year’s Oscar buzz and sparking a global awakening to Eastern culture.

    Just as Ne Zha is reborn in flames, so too does Chinese animation rise, not by breaking from its past, but by forging a bold future.

    Yanyan Hong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film – https://theconversation.com/ne-zha-2-the-ancient-philosophies-behind-chinas-record-breaking-new-animated-film-249850

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian LGBTIQ+ politicians were hit with vile online abuse at the last federal election. The coming campaign could be even worse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Stephenson, Deputy Director, Global Institute for Women’s Leadership, Australian National University

    Newly published research has found clear evidence that openly lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, intersex, and queer+ (LGBTIQ+) Australian politicians were disproportionately targeted with personal abuse on social media at the last federal election. Given global trends, it’s unlikely to be any different this year.

    Simply logging off is not an option for candidates, who need to communicate with voters. As a result, some politicians will continue to face risky online visibility.

    Since Elon Musk acquired Twitter/X, hate speech has surged, particularly for public figures such as parliamentarians.

    So what do these trends mean for queer candidates ahead of this year’s election? And why does it matter for the next generation of politically engaged young people?

    Queer politicians targeted

    We analysed more than 100,000 tweets across the Twitter profiles of eight openly queer politicians and candidates (Penny Wong, Julian Hill, Nita Green, Tim Wilson, Janet Rice, Rachael Jacobs, Claire Garton, Stephen Bates) during the 2022 federal election campaign. We compared them with eight other politicians (Zoe Daniel, Graham Perrett, Lidia Thorpe, Anthony Chisholm, Barbara Pocock, Simon Birmingham, Deborah O’Neill, David Shoebridge) in the same period.

    We suspected that political hopefuls who publicly identified as LGBTIQ+ may have experienced greater levels of abuse and harassment. But what we found surprised us.

    The level of online intimidation was roughly the same for queer and non-queer politicians. However, the type of abuse differed significantly.

    Queer politicians endured highly personal harassment that specifically targeted their gender or physical appearance. They suffered nasty queer-specific slurs, transphobic messages and ableist language. Essentially, nothing that was related to their policies or politics.

    Meanwhile, straight, cisgender politicians received harassment that was typically political in nature. More of it focused on their party or platform. It wasn’t as personal (with the exception of Thorpe, who received high levels of racist abuse). While overtly hostile, for straight politicians in general much of the harassment received might be considered an unavoidable part of the democratic political process in the social media age.

    Our research provides a useful retrospective of some of the vitriol that proliferated during the last election.

    One such event began with YouTube commentator Jordan Shanks breaking a salacious story of repeated sexual misconduct by staffers in Canberra, purportedly in MPs offices and in the parliamentary multi-faith prayer room.

    Our data tracked the way queer male politicians were wrongly affiliated and tagged in the scandal. They were unfairly accused and ridiculed. The unfounded attacks were non-partisan, involving politicians from across the major parties. This indicated a single point of commonality – their sexuality.

    Liberal MP Tim Wilson, who had no involvement in the scandal, received over 2000 tweets explicitly mentioning the incident. Many were overtly homophobic, using terms such as “toy boy”, “rentboy”, “parasite” and “prayer room pervert”.

    How it puts off politically engaged young people

    The data indicates that queer politicians face a double bind. The personal hate they experience negatively impacts them as individuals and also distracts from genuine political debate. Trolling, hate speech, and a prohibitive online environment stymies open and constructive political dialogue.

    Furthermore, identity based harassment discourages queer people from pursuing political careers in the first place. Or staying in politics once they’ve experienced the hate. It erodes their sense of safety when engaging in public discourse and undermines the foundations upon which democracy is built.

    In a follow-up study of 98 politically engaged, young gender and sexuality diverse people, we found that online violence and a lack of workplace safety were some of the biggest barriers for them in considering a career in politics.

    The upcoming election

    We expect the personal harassment of queer politicians will continue to escalate across multiple platforms, including X, Facebook and Instagram.

    For instance, we have seen a sharp rise in anti-LGBTIQ+ hate and extremism across the United States. Online spaces are likely to become even less safe for queer politicians in 2025, than they were in 2022.

    Big tech is making it easier for abuse and harassment to flourish in the online world.

    Musk has fired 80% of engineers responsible for content regulation on X. He has also liked transphobic tweets and deemed the words “cis and “cisgender ” to be slurs, that were subsequently banned on X.

    Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has also removed protections that prevented hate speech on Facebook.

    More users are deserting X due to the malicious content and lack of safeguards. But with a closely integrated social media environment, online violence can follow politicians across platforms, both social and legacy. There is no escaping the bile.

    Demanding better of online platforms

    Social media regulation is difficult. Tech giants have already threatened to withdraw their services from Australia over laws that would force them to pay for news content.

    Online platforms may claim to only be the “messenger”, but the reality is that design features like anonymity and business decisions like removing content moderation will cause even more harm.

    Until a critical mass of countries demand better protections, some individuals, including queer politicians, will always be at a disadvantage in this asymmetric online war.

    Elise Stephenson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Elise is part of research projects funded by the eSafety Commissioner on combating online violence. The research quoted in this article received funding from the Gender Institute at the ANU.

    Gosia Mikolajczak collaborates with Women for Election on a project funded by the Australian Government Office for Women, aiming to increase the number and diversity of women running for public office. She has previously worked on an Australian Research Council Linkage project that examined gender inequalities in local government in Victoria.

    Blair Williams and Jack Hayes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australian LGBTIQ+ politicians were hit with vile online abuse at the last federal election. The coming campaign could be even worse – https://theconversation.com/australian-lgbtiq-politicians-were-hit-with-vile-online-abuse-at-the-last-federal-election-the-coming-campaign-could-be-even-worse-250039

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The beauty standard is intensifying. At what cost?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jordan Foster, Sociology, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, McMaster University

    Young women are engaging in increasingly intensive and expensive beauty practices and purchases, aspiring to new beauty standards. (Kevin Laminto /Unsplash), CC BY

    The internet is abuzz with talk of beauty and the lengths we’ll go to achieve it. From Lindsay Lohan’s recent transformation to Donatella Versace’s “new look”, those of us plugged in online can’t help but gab over the rise of better, less detectable and more precise plastic surgery.

    Achieved through a combination of invasive operations like face lifts and rhinoplasty as well as non-invasive procedures — like the injection of facial filler and facial neurotoxins like Botox — the contemporary beauty standard is increasingly intensive, costly and challenging to maintain. A hundred units of Botox, or its counterpart Dysport, could run clients up to $1,500 with effects diminishing in just four to six weeks.

    Although women continue to make up the majority of clients seeking invasive and non-invasive beauty interventions, the number of men undergoing plastic surgery is on the rise. So too are the number of advertisements and beauty-focused messages targeting men.

    But while appearance pressures and beauty advertising are increasingly directed at men, the imperative to be beautiful has come at significant emotional and financial costs for women — and young women especially.

    Immersed in a celebrity-saturated and visually intensive media culture, young women today face pressures to purchase beauty products and services to manage or, better yet, perfect their appearance ad nauseam.

    Lindsay Lohan poses makeup-free with her dermatologist in Dubai.
    (Dr. Radmila Lukian/Instagram)

    Social media pressures

    I study beauty and its cultural forces, especially as they apply to young people online. My findings speak to the increasingly important role that beauty plays in shaping women’s opportunities for visibility in both online media and in the real world. Young women are engaging in increasingly intensive practices as they aspire to new beauty standards.

    I recently published an investigation with Josée Johnston, a sociologist at the University of Toronto, into the ways young people grapple with contemporary beauty standards. We looked at how their practices and purchases are compelled by current beauty standards.

    For many young women, the pressure to be — or become — beautiful is top of mind. And yet the beauty standard remains elusive and painfully out of reach for most of the women and girls we spoke with. Few can afford to keep up with costly and intensive interventions to the face and body.

    Relax, sculpt, lift: High-definition make-up

    About 20 years ago, a needle or surgical knife to the face was considered a rather extreme intervention in pursuit of beauty. These procedures were often risky, permanent and sometimes poorly done. Today, neither knife nor needle are very unusual for those seeking a more perfect face and body.

    Indeed, the injection of facial neurotoxins is among the fastest growing cosmetic procedure in Canada and the United States. The Academy of Plastic Surgeons suggests that nearly 4,715,716 procedures involving Botox were performed in 2023 alone. These numbers signal a wider shift in the production and maintenance of contemporary appearance standards, and the lengths we go to achieve them.

    Alongside these figures, an ever-greater number of bodily and facial features are scrutinized. And products and services are designed to offer “high-definition” beauty in bottles, from head and toe.

    Driven partly by our increasing preoccupation with celebrity images popularized by social media platforms, even everyday cosmetics like skin creams, bronzers and lip glosses are being marketed with promises to “relax,” “sculpt” or “lift” facial features. These purchases from the beauty counter are being marketed to consumers as if they can achieve a surgical degree of perfection.



    Read more:
    Praise for Kim Kardashian’s Skims ignores her family’s relationship with body augmentation

    Priced out, excluded or in debt

    Many young women are priced out of expensive treatements.
    (Alireza Mirzabegi/Unsplash), CC BY-SA

    Many young women we spoke with described invasive facial and bodily interventions as a central component of the contemporary beauty standard. They described these interventions as compulsory, leaving many women either priced out of the beauty market or in pursuit of beauty at great personal expense.

    Celebrity women can afford to purchase facial fillers and Botox to augment their appearance, such as relaxing fine lines and plumping their features. But the young women we spoke with said interventions such as these are “unattainable” for the average person, and unsustainable in the long term.

    Signs of resistance

    Many women we spoke with insist on the importance of appearance, especially as it relates to the likelihood of their success, and the success of other women. Few of these women made the same associations with men. In fact, many “successful” men were described by our interviewees as “plain,” “unremarkable” or “ordinary.”

    The pressure to beautify through intensive and costly procedures is part and parcel of a broader cultural and economic environment centred on appearance. One that, as University of London sociologist Rosalind Gill puts it, measures a woman’s success in terms of her looks.

    However, there are small and important signs of resistance. Young women do not approach beauty and its pressures uncritically. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Many of the young women we spoke with search for spaces to resist and challenge beauty messaging as well as the cultural imperative toward facial and bodily perfection. These spaces, though few and far between, make resistance challenging but not impossible.

    Jordan Foster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The beauty standard is intensifying. At what cost? – https://theconversation.com/the-beauty-standard-is-intensifying-at-what-cost-244785

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yanyan Hong, PhD Candidate in Communication and Media Studies, University of Adelaide

    IMDB

    On the surface, Ne Zha 2: The Sea’s Fury (2025), the sequel to the 2019 Chinese blockbuster Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child, is a high-octane, action-packed and visually stunning animated spectacle, full of hilarious moments and thrilling fight scenes.

    But beneath all that, it’s something much deeper: a bold re-imagining of Chinese traditional mythology, cultural history and philosophies.

    Unlike Hollywood’s classic hero’s journey, Ne Zha 2 is rooted in Chinese thought, weaving together ideas from Buddhism, Confucianism, Daoism, Mohism, Legalism and more.

    Through the story of a baby-faced warrior god who battles demons, it channels centuries of Chinese tradition into something refreshing, relevant and undeniably global.

    The film’s success speaks for itself. Directed by Yang Yu (aka Jiao Zi), Ne Zha 2 has shattered multiple global box office records, pulling in more than US$1 billion in China in just one week.

    It has even entered the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, and is the second highest-grossing animated film behind Inside Out 2 (2024).

    But what makes Ne Zha 2 so compelling beyond its visual spectacle? At its heart, it’s an inspiring story about identity, free will, self-determination and rebellion – ideas that resonate far beyond China.

    A child hero forged in myth and philosophy

    Ne Zha is a rebellious deity in traditional Chinese folklore – a boy born with immense superpower, who defies both divine and social expectations.

    Most people who know of Ne Zha will trace his legend back to Fengshen Yanyi, or Investiture of the Gods, a Ming Dynasty novel that blends mythology with historical elements.

    Ne Zha’s true origins, however, trace back to India.

    “Ne Zha” is a shortened transliteration of the Sanskrit Nalakuvara (or Nalakūbara), an Indian mythological figure who appears in Buddhist and Hindu mythology.

    As Buddhism spread to China during the Tang Dynasty, Ne Zha evolved from an intimidating guardian deity into the rebellious, fire-wheeled warrior we know today.

    In Ne Zha 2, this “fighting spirit” against authority and hierarchy is taken even further, turning the story into a deeper philosophical exploration of morality, fate, self-worth and power.

    Good and evil – a Daoist perspective

    One of the most thought-provoking aspects of Ne Zha 2 is how it challenges the idea of good and evil.

    In Daoist philosophy, evil and good, often known as Yin and Yang, are not absolute, but are rather shifting, interconnected forces.

    Through its two protagonists: the “Demon Pill” (Ne Zha) and his noble dragon prince buddy, “Spirit Pearl” (Ao Bing), the film beautifully reflects this Daoist idea of balance and self-discovery.

    Their merging further blurs the line between hero and villain and brings to life a core concept from the 2,400-year-old text Dao De Jing (Tao Te Ching), written around 400 BC by Chinese philosopher Laozi (also called Lao Tzu).

    Laozi emphasises that righteousness and villainy aren’t always what they seem. “When the world knows beauty as beauty, there arises ugliness,” he says.

    Those we assume to be noble may turn out to be dark inside, while those deemed evil might be fighting for what is right.

    Ne Zha’s character in the film embodies this Daoist philosophy. Echoing the Xisheng Jing, The Scripture of Western Ascension, he declares, “My fate is up to me, not the Heaven.”

    He is the demon child who is willing to die fighting for his own destiny, proving that even the smallest, most underestimated individual can change the world.

    Beyond family bonds: rebirth of Confucianism

    In one scene, Ne Zha is struck by the “heart-piercing curse”, a brutal spell that covers his body in ten thousand thorns, causing unbearable pain and keeping him under control by targeting his heart. Ne Zha’s human mother, Lady Yin, clings to him as his thorns pierce her skin – yet she refuses to let go.

    It’s a moment of heartbreak, parental love and inner awakening. As his mother takes her final breath, in Ne Zha’s grief, his body shatters into a million pieces. And then, he is reborn.

    This is the film’s emotional climax, in which the so-called demon child awakens to “Rén” (benevolence), a core Confucian virtue.

    Confucianism teaches that true morality isn’t imposed by rules but arises naturally from within. Ne Zha doesn’t just seek revenge, he awakes to fight for those who have been oppressed, embracing his identity with unwavering resolve.

    But perhaps the most profound transformation comes from the dragon prince Ao Bing. As the last hope of his people, burdened by centuries of expectation, he finally makes a choice, not for legacy, not for his ancestors, but for himself.

    In this moment, his once-imposing father Dragon King releases his grip: “Your path is yours to forge.”

    The weight of tradition gives way to something new, reflecting a changing China where younger generations are defining their own paths.

    Wisdom of Legalism and Mohism

    Beyond Daoist and Confucian ideals, Ne Zha 2 also weaves in Legalist reform and Mohist resistance. These philosophies challenge rigid hierarchies (or in Ne Zha’s case, “divine order”) and advocate for collective justice.

    Across Ne Zha’s three major trials and the climactic celestial-demon war, a brutal truth emerges: those deemed unworthy – whether groundhogs, mystical beings, or ordinary humans – are sacrificed to uphold the elite’s rule.

    Take the small groundhogs. Dressed in patched clothes, surviving on pumpkin porridge. They’ve never harmed anyone. Yet, they are mercilessly crushed in the name of celestial balance.

    Then there’s Shiji Niangniang, or Lady Rock, a recluse who harms no one. She indulges only in her own beauty and speaks to her enchanted mirror. Yet the heavens brand her a demon, sealing her fate.

    A similar cruelty befalls the Dragon Clan and the people of Chentangguan, all caught in a war where they are mere pawns on a celestial chessboard.

    Even the last battle is not just Ne Zha’s fight, but a battlefield showing the Chinese spirit of collectivism. Dragons, shrimp soldiers, crab generals, octopus warriors, humans and millions of goblins stand side by side to rewrite destiny.

    The celestial-demon war itself plays out like a lesson in Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which states that “All warfare is based on deception.” War is about strategy, resilience and the unstoppable will to rise.

    Ne Zha carries the weight of Eastern cultural essence: Daoist balance, Confucian ethics, Mohist resistance, Legalist reform and the strategic wisdom of The Art of War. It is a truly Chinese story, igniting next year’s Oscar buzz and sparking a global awakening to Eastern culture.

    Just as Ne Zha is reborn in flames, so too does Chinese animation rise, not by breaking from its past, but by forging a bold future.

    Yanyan Hong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film – https://theconversation.com/ne-zha-2-the-ancient-philosophies-behind-chinas-record-breaking-new-animated-film-249850

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires – challenging fire fighters and land managers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of Tasmania

    Tasmania has been burning for more than two weeks, with no end in sight. Almost 100,000 hectares of bushland in the northwest has burned to date. This includes the Tarkine rainforest and alpine ecosystems of Cradle Mountain that may never recover.

    The situation has taken emergency services and land management agencies by surprise. The seasonal bushfire outlook for summer 2024 suggested Tasmania’s fire risk was nothing out of the ordinary. The state was also well prepared for bushfire fighting, particularly with specialised aircraft.

    But this fire season has turned out to be anything but typical. Firefighting capacity has been stretched to the limit and interstate crews have been called in.

    It all began with a massive lightning storm in the evening of Monday February 3. The incidence of such lightning fires has been increasing in Tasmania since the 1990s.

    An official inquiry into the bushfires will no doubt be held, given the substantial social, economic and environmental harm – as well as the sizeable costs associated with fighting the fires from the air in remote and rugged landscapes.

    Nonetheless, important lessons are emerging from these fires, which speak to the broader, worsening threat as the climate changes.

    Understanding the impacts of the fires

    Fortunately, direct economic losses from theses fires have been limited so far, despite significant disruption associated with evacuation and road closures. Tourism operators and honey producers have been hardest hit.

    The fires caused brief but substantial smoke pollution across the state, placing a range of people with medical conditions at risk.

    The full environmental effects and the benefits of prescribed burning are yet to be evaluated. Nonetheless, there is grave concern about damage to unique rainforests and alpine ecosystems. If sufficiently dry the organic soils, or peats, that supports forests and treeless areas in western Tasmania are also vulnerable to combustion.

    We undertook a preliminary estimate of how much highly fire-sensitive vegetation – plant communities that will take more than 50 years to recover – may have burned. This involved comparing the current bushfire boundaries or footprint, based on satellite data and field reconnaissance, to vegetation mapping used for various purposes including fire management. We put the figure at 19,716 hectares of vegetation. However, it’s possible not all of this burned and islands of unburned vegetation persist within the broad fire boundary.

    Our estimation includes 10,419 hectares of temperate rainforest (10% of the fire area) and 462 hectares of alpine vegetation (0.45% of the fire area). Neither of these vegetation types can readily tolerate fire.

    Our analysis suggests about half of fire-affected rainforest areas have been previously burned by fires since 1982 (48%) and some small areas have burned twice (5%). Recurrent fires in rainforest can result in permanent loss of this vegetation. Just how much damage has been done will require further assessment.

    Current area affected by bushfires in northwestern Tasmania, comparing data from Geoscience Australia on bushfire boundaries and Land Information Services Tasmania on vegetation. Note, not all of the shaded area has burned.
    Grant Williamson

    Emergence of new fire patterns

    The number of fires ignited by lightning have increased in Tasmania since the 1990s. When the lightning occurs in storms without much rain, or where the rain evaporates before it hits the ground, it’s known as dry lightning.

    Concerningly, in the last decade two other major dry lightning fire events have occurred,
    likely a signal of a change in fire activity. As a result, fires are burning into areas that historically are rarely affected by fire, damaging the natural values of the Tasmanian wilderness.

    This event could not be predicted

    Going into summer, experts were concerned that soils across western Tasmania were particularly dry. This increased the fire risk in the seasonal outlook.

    The recent rapid fire growth in Tasmania was caused by the unusual combination of regional drying (including dry soils), an extreme lightning storm and subsequent strong winds.

    But the sequence of events that caused this fire to take off could not have been predicted more than a week ahead. That’s because it is impossible to predict lightning and windstorms outside the seven-day window of weather forecasts.

    What’s more, our research shows it is currently not possible to reliably predict which lightning strikes will start fire.

    By February 12, more than a dozen fires had burned around 50,000 hectares in the state’s northwest.
    NASA Earth Observatory

    Rapid attack and fire suppression have practical limits

    Massive lightning storms that ignite multiple fires overwhelm the capacity of firefighters to locate and immediately extinguish all the flames.

    Unfavourable weather conditions caused the west coast fires to rapidly grow. Firefighting shifted from attempts to extinguish the fire to instead contain its spread. This involved techniques such as targeted waterbombing, back burning and building fire breaks.

    These approaches have been successful in some cases, notably the deployment of retardant drops to contain the Canning Peak fire, saving extensive stands of conifer rainforest. But suppression efforts were imperfect, as the loss of a private tourist facility hut on the Overland Track has demonstrated.

    Managing these massive fires demands triage – making difficult choices about where to direct firefighting effort. Effective triage requires a detailed understanding of the location of areas of high economic, cultural and environmental value. High-quality mapping of these sites and involvement of specialists in the broader decision-making process is essential.

    The Tasmanian government does have maps and expertise to guide triage, but there are calls for more investment to protect the region’s ecological values. This is particularly important for small, localised sites vulnerable to fire, such as groves of ancient Huon pine.

    Fires continue to burn in Tasmania’s west, putting wilderness areas at risk (7.30)

    Broader lessons for fire fighting

    Dry lightning storms are hard to predict, extraordinarily difficult to contain, and can cause substantial economic, social and environmental harms.

    Technology alone – such as that which combines satellites, artificial intelligence, drones and water bombers – is not enough to eliminate these fires. What’s needed is a diverse portfolio of approaches, involving a combination of:

    • reducing fuel loads by prescribed burning
    • firefighting that is carefully targeted using high quality data
    • expertise embedded in firefighting teams.

    Researchers and fire managers must also identify the best strategies for prescribed burning to reduce bushfire risk while protecting areas of high economic, conservation and cultural value.

    Climate change will bring more frequent monster fires – and fighting them demands a broad suite of investment.

    David Bowman is an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow and also receives funding from the New South Wales Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.

    Grant Williamson receives funding from the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.

    – ref. More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires – challenging fire fighters and land managers – https://theconversation.com/more-dry-lightning-in-tasmania-is-sparking-bushfires-challenging-fire-fighters-and-land-managers-250063

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Subha Parida, Lecturer in Property, University of South Australia

    Carl Oberg/Shutterstock

    Houses and fire do not mix. The firestorm which hit Los Angeles in January destroyed nearly 2,000 buildings and forced 130,000 people to evacuate.

    The 2019–20 Australian megafires destroyed almost 2,800 homes. This summer, houses and buildings have been lost in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania.

    As temperatures inch upwards, bushfires will become more severe and more frequent, posing risks to more homes. But fires don’t affect homes equally. Older homes built before fire resilience standards became mandatory are at higher risk of going up in flames.

    In the aftermath of the devastating LA fires, there are signs that newer homes have fared better than older ones. Previous fires in California and Australia have shown newer homes built with fire-resilient features are more likely to survive than older homes.

    The problem is, more than half (55%) of Australia’s homes were built 30 or more years ago – before national standards for fire resilience were introduced.

    The good news: you can take action to make older homes more resilient.

    Why are new homes better able to survive bushfires?

    Location, vegetation and luck play a role in determining which houses survive fires. But there is also evidence newer homes with heat- and ember-resistant features survive better.

    Construction standards in both Australia and the United States require the use of materials and designs which reduce fire risk.

    In Australia, the national construction standards have been in place since the early 1990s. Over time, the standards have expanded to include more fire-resistant features, such as fire-resistant external walls.

    By contrast, older homes are more likely to be built of flammable materials such as wood and untreated timber. Older homes are also more likely to have mature trees and shrubs closer to the house, which can increase fire risk. But as the CSIRO Bushfire Best Practice Guide points out, “trees can also be used to shield against wind, absorb radiant heat, and to filter embers […] when located at a safe distance from the house”.

    More exacting construction standards apply for homes built in areas considered at risk of bushfire. State and territory governments have interactive maps of these areas.

    Unfortunately, climate change is expanding these areas at risk. As the LA wildfires show, warmer climates mean fire can attack suburbs and cities thought to be safe from bushfire.

    Climate change is also making home ownership more expensive, as insurance premiums rise in the wake of more expensive disasters. Analysts predict banks may begin rejecting mortgage applications for properties in areas at high risk from fire.

    Older homes are more likely to burn if a bushfire comes through.
    Ekaterina Kamenetsky/Shutterstock

    How can we make older homes more resilient?

    Older homes remain highly sought after, especially in cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

    But for these homes to be brought up to modern standards of bushfire resistance, they often require significant retrofitting. These retrofits can drastically reduce the risk of ignition.

    How do houses actually ignite? Wind-blown embers are a common cause in starting house fires. If a few houses in a town start burning, the fire can spread house to house.

    Here are 5 ways to protect your older house:

    1. Upgrade external vents. Traditional external vents are designed to ventilate rooms and roofs. But they also permit embers to gain access to attics and crawl spaces and spark a fire. Upgrading to ember-resistant vents can directly improve your home’s resilience.

    2. Install ember gutter guards. Ember-resistant gutter guards are made of metal and have finer mesh than normal gutter guards. These help to prevent the build-up of dry leaves and twigs and stop small embers from landing.

    3. Upgrade windows and walls. You can cut your risk further by installing bushfire-resistant shutters for windows, using fire-resistant material for wall insulation and replacing combustible material with better alternatives such as metal roofing, fibre cement siding for walls and tempered glass windows.

    4. Check your deck and verandah. Wooden decks and verandahs are risky in high-risk areas. If they need to be rebuilt, choose fire-resistant materials.

    5. Make space around your home. In fire-prone areas, removing trees and shrubs within 20 metres of the house can reduce risk. A well-managed area of pavers and low-density plants and shrubs close to the home acts as a fire break.

    Ahead of fire season, making and updating an evacuation plan is equally vital. Homeowners should prepare emergency kits with essential documents, medications, and protective gear. If a fire starts in your area, applying fire-retardant gels to surfaces at risk can provide temporary protection.

    In high risk areas, ensuring clear space between vegetation and the house can cut fire risk. Pictured: a house in Balmoral, New South Wales, after fire passed through in 2020.
    Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

    Homeowners can use the National Emergency Management Authority’s bushfire resilience rating app to assess their home’s bushfire risk and to see which retrofits are highest priority.

    State or territory governments offer advice on making your house more resistant to fire attack: New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory, Australian Capital Territory.

    Protecting our homes takes time – and money

    Australia’s housing crisis has been front page news for months. As we head towards the federal election, it will remain a hot-button issue. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet heard discussion of the risk posed to our housing stock from bushfires made worse by climate change.

    While planning controls and building standards can raise the standards of future homes, better support and incentives are needed to retrofit existing homes – especially for those built before fire safety standards became the norm.

    Retrofitting is crucial. But it’s not cheap. Costs can range from A$8,500 to $47,000 per property.

    These expenses can be prohibitive for many homeowners. Initiatives such as the Bushfire Resilience Rating Home Self-Assessment app can result in insurers offering premium discounts to homeowners using it to introduce recommended measures.

    In some areas, local governments offer financial assistance for retrofitting, such as the Bushfire Wise Rebate by Ku-ring-gai Council in NSW.

    Without greater financial support or government incentives, a significant portion of Australia’s housing stock will remain vulnerable, increasing risks as climate change expands fire-prone areas.

    Subha Parida receives receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)

    Lyrian Daniel receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

    Michaela Lang receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

    – ref. More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them – https://theconversation.com/more-than-half-of-australias-homes-were-built-before-fire-standards-came-in-here-are-5-ways-to-retrofit-them-249490

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian women will soon be eligible for a menopause health check. Here’s what to expect

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

    SpeedKingz/Shutterstock

    The federal government has recently pledged to create a new Medicare rebate for menopause health assessments. It’s due to be available from July 1.

    The announcement featured in the government’s response to the Senate inquiry into menopause, released last week, though was first flagged earlier this month as part of the government’s pre-election funding package for women’s health.

    So what is a menopause health assessment? And how will it improve the health care women receive during this stage in their lives?

    Why we need this

    Outside reproductive health, women’s health care has generally been modelled on the needs of men. A prime example is the government-funded midlife health check for people aged 45 to 49. This is intended to identify and manage risks to prevent chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.

    The recent Senate inquiry into issues related to menopause and perimenopuase highlighted that the timing of this health check is not fit for purpose for women. This is because at menopause, which occurs on average at the age of 51 in Australia, women’s health profiles change.

    Women gain tummy fat, their cholesterol levels go up, and glucose (sugar) metabolism becomes less efficient. All these changes increase a woman’s risk of heart disease and diabetes.

    Vast numbers of women are given a clean bill of health at this midlife health check in their late 40s. But when they subsequently go through menopause, they can go on to develop heart disease and diabetes risk factors, which may go undetected.

    Some women also go through early menopause: around 12% between the ages of 40 and 45, and around 4% before 40.

    Those women who experience menopause before age 45 are known to be at significantly higher risk of heart disease than other women. But, by the time women with early menopause qualify for the midlife health check, crucial metabolic changes may have silently occurred, and the opportunity to intervene early to address them may be missed.

    Changes that happen at menopause can increase a woman’s risk of developing a chronic disease.
    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    What will a menopause health check involve?

    The federal government has committed A$26 million over two years to fund the new menopause health assessments, as part of a $64.5 million package designed to improve health care for women experiencing perimenopause and menopause.

    Some $12.8 million will also be dedicated to a menopause-related community awareness campaign.

    My own research has shown women understand menopause means the loss of fertility, but often have little knowledge of the health changes that occur as part of the menopause transition. So increasing health literacy around menopause is much needed.

    Similarly, for the introduction of these menopause-specific consultations to be effective, women will need to know what these health checks are for, if they’re eligible, and how to access a menopause health check.

    The new menopause health checks will be provided by GPs. Exactly what they will involve is yet to be clarified. But I would anticipate they will include a combination of the assessment and management of perimenopause and menopause, overall health and wellbeing, and assessment of risk and prevention of future ill health, notably heart disease, diabetes and osteoporosis.

    Upskilling health-care providers

    Equally, health-care providers will need to understand the impact of menopause on long-term health and how best to mitigate against disease risks, including the role of menopausal hormone therapy.

    My research has shown health-care providers lack confidence in delivering menopause-related care, indicating a need for more education around menopause.

    In line with this, the Senate inquiry called for the upskilling of the medical workforce in the field of menopause through medical school training, postgraduate specialist programs, and ongoing education of clinicians.

    Women in Australia will soon be able to access menopause health assessments.
    Sabrina Bracher/Shutterstock

    While the government cannot mandate what is taught in medical schools or the content of specialist training programs, its response to the inquiry encourages these institutions to incorporate menopause in their curricula.

    Further, part of the government funding will go towards expanding a professional development program on managing menopause offered by Jean Hailes for Women’s Health.

    A good start, but still not enough

    The government’s new funding, and the new menopause health checks in particular, recognises that women’s health is strongly dictated by major biological events, such as menopause, as opposed to age.

    This is good news. But we need to do more to equip health professionals to provide the best menopause care to women in these health assessments and beyond.

    Adding new menopause modules to medical school and specialist training programs will ensure greater awareness of the impact of menopause on women’s health and wellbeing. However, awareness alone won’t ensure high-level training for the complex care many perimenopausal and menopausal women need.

    The opportunities for medical graduates to gain hands-on clinical experience in menopausal medicine are mostly limited to the select few who get to work in a hospital specialist menopause clinic during their training.

    Notably, there’s no credentialed training program in menopause medicine in Australia. Meanwhile, the North American Menopause Society does offer a credentialed program.

    The challenge has been that menopause does not belong to one medical specialty. This is why we need an accredited training program – for both GPs and medical specialists – to ensure a truly skilled workforce able to deliver gold standard menopause care.

    But without further federal funding to set this up, it will not happen.

    Susan Davis receives funding from NHMRC, Medical Research Future Fund, the Heart Foundation, MS Australia. She has prepared and delivered educational presentations for Besins Healthcare, Bayer, and Mayne Pharma and has served on Advisory Boards for Theramex, Astellas, Abbott Laboratories, Mayne Pharma, and Besins Healthcare. She is a Member of the Executive of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    – ref. Australian women will soon be eligible for a menopause health check. Here’s what to expect – https://theconversation.com/australian-women-will-soon-be-eligible-for-a-menopause-health-check-heres-what-to-expect-249499

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Kroen, Research Fellow Planning and Transport, RMIT University

    The cleanup is underway in northern Queensland following the latest flooding catastrophe to hit the state. More than 7,000 insurance claims have already been lodged, most of them for inundated homes and other structures.

    The Queensland floods are a reminder that climate-induced natural disasters are becoming more frequent and severe in Australia. Recent reports have identified the high number of Australian homes that are vulnerable to the increased risks of floods, coastal erosion and bushfires.

    Despite the evidence of escalating danger to homes and communities, we are ill-prepared for severe weather events. A new report from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute spells out the case for better integration, especially of urban planning processes. This is urgently needed to reduce the exposure of housing to growing disaster risks.

    Top priorities for planning authorities must include an end to building homes in the wrong locations, such as flood zones, and improving the resilience of dwellings to disaster hazards.

    Poor coordination

    At the national level, there is little integration of the three pillars of sound strategy: housing policy, settlement planning and disaster management. For example, neither housing policy nor planning frameworks incorporate disaster preparedness or mitigation.

    A focus on disaster response and recovery also hinders proper coordination in the disaster prevention area, even though avoidance in the first place is clearly more cost effective.

    However, this may be changing. Both the Issues Paper for the National Housing and Homelessness Plan and State of the Housing System report have acknowledged climate change and natural disasters are risk factors affecting housing.

    And the National Urban Policy includes “sustainable and resilient” as one of its three major goals for liveable cities.

    At the state and territory level, there is more clearly defined coordination through state emergency management planning. It also occurs via fire agencies that advise on planning proposals.

    In New South Wales, the NSW Reconstruction Authority is responsible for developing and implementing the State Disaster Mitigation Plan and for housing recovery.

    This means settlement planning and relevant housing issues are directly under the auspices of the agency responsible for disaster prevention and recovery. This is one way to improve integration, but further coordination with housing and planning agencies would be desirable.

    Greater focus on risk reduction

    Relevant Australian agencies are enhancing their approaches to disaster management in relation to housing. But housing policy still needs to accord greater priority to disaster risk reduction. This includes the location and resilience of housing relative to climate change hazards, such as fires and floods.

    In settlement planning, tensions between disaster risk reduction and economic and other development goals need to be addressed. Planning processes and policies to move communities away from risk areas via managed retreat and possibly compensation schemes must be developed.

    We can look to international experience for guidance. In Quebec, Canada the provincial government offered significant funding towards property buybacks after floods in 2017 and 2019. It also introduced a cap on disaster aid in high risk locations. Bylaw regulations banned any new developments or reconstruction.

    Households had to decide to either relocate or bear the cost of repeated disaster recovery. This strategy is an example of a successful relocation plan in an area at risk of repeated future flooding.

    The strategy received a relatively positive response from the affected municipalities and homeowners, potentially due to the generous buyout offers.

    This example illustrates the need for policies to manage disaster risk and urban development much more clearly.

    Better integration needed

    A whole of government approach that establishes clear policy and planning responsibilities would improve integration. It would also allow agencies to develop clearer strategies for the task. Improved data availability and harmonisation of risk identification would further support good decision making by housing and planning agencies.

    At the operational level, more staff exchanges between housing, planning, and emergency agencies would support capacity building.

    Detailed evaluations of housing experiences and planning outcomes from previous disasters would underpin improvements and integration. This occurs to some extent through formal statutory inquiries into disasters.

    A standardised evaluation for housing and planning agencies would provide more focused insights. One idea is to gauge temporary housing programs to build an inventory of suitable and available temporary housing types.

    In addition to coordination between government agencies, there is also a need to better communicate with the public on potential disaster risks. Local communities need to be included in planning, both for short-term disaster management and longer-term resettlement decisions.

    If we fail to better integrate housing policy with disaster preparation, we will continue to build on flood plains and other high risk areas. People, and their homes, will remain on the front line of deadly natural disasters.

    Annette Kroen receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

    RMIT University receives finding from AHURI and NHRA to support Jago Dodson’s research which is relevant to this article, as well as a range of other funding sources.

    – ref. How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters – https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-more-australian-homes-from-the-growing-risks-of-floods-fires-and-other-climate-disasters-249860

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi, Visiting Senior Researcher, Smart Structures Research Group, University of British Columbia

    Net-zero homes play an important role in combating climate change. (Shutterstock)

    Net-zero homes use natural energy sources and are designed to use less energy and, as such, are considered important in the fight against climate change. But for the average Canadian, they’re still out of reach.

    Net-zero homes are important for tackling climate change. This includes both net-zero energy (NZE) homes, which produce as much energy as they use each year, and net-zero carbon (NZC) homes, which don’t release any carbon dioxide.

    Released in the summer of 2024, the Canada Green Buildings Strategy outlines a bold vision to transform the country’s building sector, aiming for net-zero emissions and enhanced resilience by 2050. This is a bold step forward, but transforming the sector will require sustained collaboration across all levels of government, industry and communities.

    CTV News covers the federal government’s Green Buildings Strategy.

    Net-zero homes use green energy sources and efficient designs to match the amount of energy they produce with the amount they use. They use strategies like thermal shells that use less energy, high-performance components and the addition of green energy systems.

    Net-zero homes also help Canada reach larger climate goals by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide it releases into the air.

    Purchasing and installing these technologies can be cost-prohibitive, but in the long run, homeowners both save money on power bills and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Those who are unable to make changes to their homes can still live in a net-zero way by buying green power or carbon offsets.

    The sustainable housing market

    Net-zero homes are becoming more popular in Canada. To speed up building processes and reduce costs, builders are trying out pre-fabricated and modular building techniques.

    In 2024, the Canadian federal government announced a $600 million package of loans and funding to help make it easier and cheaper to build homes. This funding will support innovative technologies like pre-fabricated and modular construction, robotics, 3D-printing and mass timber to build homes faster and cheaper.



    Read more:
    Canada’s housing crisis: Innovative tech must come with policy reform

    The Net Zero Council of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association has also been important in enhancing standards and practices and promoting novel approaches that cut costs while still being environmentally friendly. In doing so, CHBA drives the adoption of cheaper, environmentally friendly technologies and processes, enhancing industry standards and practices across Canada.

    While CHBA collaborates with government agencies, such as Natural Resources Canada to promote innovation and elevate industry standards. Government programs typically provide funding, technical support and policy guidance, whereas CHBA focuses on training, best practices and market development for its members.

    Government research programs through CanmetENERGY also work to improve technologies and give builders and planners the tools they need.

    There are several reasons that owning a net-zero home has not yet become widespread. These include: high initial costs, limited awareness and education, gaps in policy and regulation and market challenges including difficulties in scaling up and integrating net-zero technologies.

    Future directions

    To make net-zero homes accessible to all Canadians, a multi-faceted approach is required.

    Increased subsidies and incentives and expanding financial support for both builders and buyers can lower barriers to entry. The government of Canada’s 2030 Emission Reduction Plan includes $9.1 billion in new investments over the next eight years — adding to the $17 billion announced in 2021 — to support decarbonization efforts.

    Enhancing public awareness and developing educational campaigns highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits of net-zero homes are both essential approaches to raising awareness and support.

    Policy reform can accelerate adoption of net-zero homes. Examples include harmonizing building codes and introducing mandatory energy efficiency standards to accelerate adoption.

    Supporting continued research into technical innovation and developing cost-effective materials and renewable energy systems will drive down costs. Investment in modern methods of construction should be prioritized to accelerate the transition toward sustainable and energy-efficient building practices.

    Partnerships between governments, private developers and non-profits can bring together resources and expertise to scale net-zero housing initiatives.

    The Sustainable Finance Action Council recommends steps to mobilize private capital to support decarbonization and climate resilience in the Canadian economy, including in the housing sector.

    Solar panels the roofs of apartment buildings in Munich, Germany.
    (Shutterstock)

    Successful international models

    Several countries have demonstrated how net-zero homes can become a reality through innovative policies, community-driven approaches and public-private partnerships:

    BedZED in the United Kingdom is the country’s first eco-village project. It uses community-focused design and renewables to significantly cut carbon footprints.

    The Passive House standard is a German housing policy that sets a global benchmark for ultra-low energy consumption, emphasizing airtight construction and heat recovery.

    California’s ambitious Zero Net Energy policies help reduce overall carbon footprints by driving cutting-edge home construction practices.

    The Net Zero Energy House (ZEH) Program in Japan encourages advanced insulation, efficient appliances and rooftop solar.

    The Netherlands is a leader in innovative, large-scale retrofitting for net-zero housing, most notably through the Energiesprong program.

    These international models highlight that success lies in integrating strong policy frameworks, advanced technology and collaborative practices. They demonstrate that with the right mix of government support, industry innovation and residents embracing green choices, net-zero living can become more widespread.

    Housing is an important part of how to address climate change. As Canada pushes to make net-zero homes more affordable, each step forward strengthens communities, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and helps homeowners save money.

    Dr Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi has secured funding to develop innovative solutions for housing and climate crises.

    T.Y. Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most – https://theconversation.com/net-zero-homes-are-touted-as-a-solution-for-climate-change-but-they-remain-out-of-reach-for-most-247622

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate, NZ Policy Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology

    Max Dallocco/Shutterstock

    Despite Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s reassurance that “some green shoots” are starting to show in the economy, including a 50 point cut in the official cash rate expected to be announced later today, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain for many – and grim for some.

    Unemployment reached 5.1% in the final quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. That translates to a total of 156,000 unemployed individuals.

    At the same time, a 1% decrease in gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2024 puts more pressure on the job market.

    While the unemployment rate may not have reached the levels of past crises – the rate exceeded 6% during the 2008-2009 recession – the devil is in the detail.

    The Stats NZ data show the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators, accounting for 85% of the latest job losses.

    Women have seen smaller declines in employment and a slight increase in transitions to part-time roles. But the shift from full-time to part-time employment, especially among men, suggests the creation of quality full-time jobs will be a challenge.

    Job losses concentrated in male-dominated industries also have broader economic implications. They may signal shifts in household income dynamics, particularly for families that depend on a male breadwinner.

    It could also contribute to rising male underemployment (when a worker’s job doesn’t fully utilise their skills, education or experience) and further disparities in the employment rates of men and women.

    Overall, these trends raise questions about the nature and quality of work now available in the job market, and what strategies the government can respond with.

    A rise in ‘discouraged’ workers

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the annualised employment rate (representing the proportion of the working-age population employed over a year, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations) was 67.4%, compared with 69% in the same period of the previous year.

    This is the most significant decline since 2009. It reflects job losses and a “discouraged worker” effect.

    Discouraged workers are those who have stopped seeking employment due to a perceived lack of opportunities. Instead of remaining in the labour force, they may rely on savings, family support, welfare, or transition into informal or temporary work.

    According to recent data, the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators.
    Kajohnwit Boonsom/Shutterstock

    A drop in quality work

    The rise in part-time employment, particularly among men, raises concerns about the quality of the labour market. Although employment levels appear stable, the growth of less secure jobs may conceal structural weaknesses.

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number in part-time employment reached 585,000, the highest figure since 1986. Over the past year, 36,000 men left full-time jobs, while 9,000 transitioned to part-time work.

    One of the main risks of this trend is that companies may be cutting costs without resorting to mass layoffs, which implies reduced job security for workers. Many of these transitions to part-time employment are not voluntary but rather a sign that the economy is not generating enough stable job opportunities.

    Additionally, part-time jobs often offer lower wages, fewer benefits and fewer opportunities for career advancement.

    This type of employment can contribute to stagnation in skill development and reduce workers’ purchasing power, ultimately affecting consumer spending and overall economic growth.

    There is also a perception of discrimination against part-time workers, with one in three reporting feeling discriminated against in their jobs.

    A year of two halves

    While consumer confidence has been low, recent revisions to economic growth estimates suggest the economy hasn’t been as weak as perceived.

    Current projections are that unemployment may reach a peak between 5.3% and 5.6% in mid-2025 and then trend downwards.

    With inflation now within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range, changes in the official cash rate are needed to contain the damage to a weakened labour market. The central bank is forecast to cut the interest rate by 50-points today.

    The weak growth in the working-age population and a potential decline in labour force participation could limit how high unemployment rises, as fewer people may be actively looking for work. But this does not mean a strong recovery is imminent.

    New Zealand faces a significant but not insurmountable challenge. An unemployment rate of 5.1% should raise a red flag and is devastating for the increasing number of workers who have lost their jobs. But the data also show the increase is part of an anticipated economic cycle.

    What matters is how the government reacts to the increases in unemployment and changes to the job market. A supportive job-creation policy and a coordinated strategy for the most affected sectors will be key in avoiding long-lasting pain in the labour market.

    Cristóbal Castro Barrientos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market – https://theconversation.com/economic-green-shoots-and-lower-interest-rates-disguise-worrying-trends-in-nzs-job-market-249685

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology Sydney

    This week, the Productivity Commission released its much-awaited report into productivity growth in Australia’s housing construction sector. It wasn’t a glowing appraisal.

    The commission found physical productivity – the total number of houses built per hour worked – has more than halved over the past 30 years.

    The more nuanced measure of labour productivity – which accounts for improvements in size and quality – has also fallen, by 12%.

    Both measures put home-building productivity well behind the broader economy, something the report’s authors attribute to “decades of poor performance”.

    We’ve known about this problem for a long time. The Productivity Commission’s report is well researched and makes some sensible recommendations.

    Solving the underlying problem will require a coordinated approach between government, home-owners, construction companies and workers.

    Measuring productivity

    Housing can take many forms. However, from a productivity perspective, the process of development is essentially the same.

    In very simple terms it involves:

    • concept and initial design, feasibility, finance and business case development
    • land acquisition and due diligence
    • detailed design, development and building approvals
    • pre-construction planning and working drawings
    • construction project management
    • practical completion, final certificates and settlement, commissioning and handover.

    There are no official estimates of housing construction productivity. So, the Productivity Commission used Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to create its own new measures to capture productivity across this entire process.

    Falling or flat-lining productivity in this sector is a well-known long-term problem. Under the National Housing Accord, the federal government has committed to building 1.2 million new well-located homes by the end of this decade.

    But in the first three months since the National Housing Accord was launched, only 44,884 homes were built across Australia. That’s about 15,000 fewer than the required quarterly target of 60,000.

    The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council projects that new market housing supply will ultimately come in at about a quarter of a million homes below the accord’s target.

    4 key problems

    The report identified four key factors behind the malaise:

    1. complex, slow approvals, as well as delayed construction certificates and essential infrastructure connections
    2. lack of innovation and slow uptake of digital technologies and modern methods of construction
    3. the dominance of smaller building firms resulting in low economies-of-scale and project management challenges associated with supply chain fragmentation
    4. difficulties attracting and retaining skilled workers resulting in skills and labour shortages.

    The report proposes seven reform directions in response. These centre on speeding up the planning approval process, investing in research and development, and increasing workforce flexibility.

    Fixing things won’t be simple

    The Productivity Commission’s report has brought a welcome focus on planning and approvals as a key element of easing the housing crisis.

    It acknowledges that under-resourcing of agencies involved in the approvals process, such as local governments, has made the problem worse.

    One issue with increasing the number of planning approvals processed is that you then need to have a construction industry that can build fast enough to keep up with them.

    Currently, we don’t. Industry research shows since 2013, the number of workers within Australia’s construction workforce has increased by more than 25%. But they are working 2% fewer hours each year, and achieving an output that’s 25.4% lower.

    Keeping an eye on quality

    Amid any push to speed up approvals, we need to be mindful of the possible risks. Loosening building regulations can increase the risk of quality problems and inappropriate development.

    If widespread across the industry, such problems can cause significant personal and economic harm to households, social and economic costs for society. They can also increase building costs, insurance premiums and strata fees.

    This problem calls for a range of tools to reduce the risk of compromising on quality when regulations are loosened or changed. New South Wales has two key pieces of legislation in place that could act as a model for other states.

    One allows owners to sue if a person who carries out construction work fails to exercise reasonable care. The other allows the Building Commission to investigate building work and require rectification of defects for up to six years.

    NSW also has an independent builder trustworthiness rating scheme. This is known as iCirt and operated by credit rating agency Equifax.

    Innovation isn’t a panacea

    A major feature of the Productivity Commission’s report discusses the housing construction industry’s low innovation culture.

    However, much innovation is hidden from view, since it occurs at the manufacturing stage. And innovation itself is not a panacea.

    While calling for greater innovation seems obvious on the surface, research has shown its ability to increase productivity depends on a wide range of factors and is certainly not guaranteed. It can even increase costs and reduce quality and productivity if not managed effectively.

    More holistic workforce planning

    The report also highlights issues with attracting and retaining a skilled workforce. Issues include low apprenticeship take-up and completion rates, restrictive trade pathways, and large infrastructure projects drawing talent away.

    This raises a bigger issue. Despite workforce planning across the industry by the Construction Industry Training Board the industry still seems to be constantly reacting to a skilled labour shortage rather than planning ahead to predict and prevent one.



    Read more:
    Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon

    Martin Loosemore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-increasing-productivity-in-housing-construction-is-such-a-tricky-problem-to-solve-250048

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pascale Lubbe, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Molecular Ecology, University of Otago

    Royal spoonbills are among several new species that have crossed the Tasman and naturalised in New Zealand. JJ Harrison/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    When people arrived on the shores of Aotearoa New Zealand and began to turn the land to their needs, they set in motion great changes.

    The landscape of today bears little resemblance to that of a mere thousand years ago. More than 70% of forest cover has been lost since human arrival. Native bush has been replaced by tussocks, scrublands and, most of all, open agricultural land.

    These changes affected our birdlife dramatically. Some species, like the moa, were simply hunted to extinction. Others fell directly to mammalian predators. Many species were victims of severe habitat destruction. The loss of suitable habitat remains a key conservation challenge to this day.

    However, a changing distribution of plants is not a uniquely modern feature. New Zealand has seen equally radical shifts in habitat before – during the Ice Age, which lasted 2.6 million years and ended about 12,000 years ago.

    This reconstruction shows the extend of glaciers during the height of the last Ice Age some 20,000 years ago.
    Shulmeister et al, 2019, CC BY-SA

    At its height, parts of the country were up to 6°C colder than today, and glacial ice sheets spread wide fingers across the Southern Alps. The dry, cold climate resulted in widespread grass and scrubland. Forest cover became patchy everywhere except for the northern North Island.

    Our new research tracks how bird life responded to these changes – in particular how exotic species took advantage of the shifting landscapes to make New Zealand home.

    Ice Age invaders

    Native birds responded to the Ice Age in a variety of ways. Kiwi populations became so isolated in forest patches they split into new lineages. Several moa species moved across the landscape, following their shifting habitat.

    Some groups adapted, spreading into novel environments. Kea split off from their relatives the kākā, becoming more generalised. This is known as in situ adaptation; an existing group changing its habits or character to deal with new environments.

    But where new ecological opportunities arise, species from elsewhere will also come to take advantage of them. Our research uncovers a pulse of colonisation by exotic bird species that coincides with the reduction of forest cover and the expansion of grasslands at the start of the Ice Age some 2.6 million years ago.

    Many endemic New Zealand birds belong to young lineages that date back to landscape changes during the last Ice Age.
    Wikimedia Commons, Te Papa by Paul Martinson, CC BY-SA

    These species were primarily generalists, able to take advantage of a variety of habitats. But there was also an influx of birds pre-adapted to more open conditions, such as the ancestors of Haast’s eagle, pūtangitangi (paradise shelduck) and pīhoihoi (pipit).

    Where did these “invaders” come from? Principally, from Australia. For millions of years, they have ridden the winds across the Tasman Sea and, occasionally, established breeding colonies on our shores.

    Over a long enough time, those new populations evolved to become distinct, endemic New Zealand species found nowhere else on earth. Pīwakawaka (fantail), ruru (morepork), weweia (dabchick) and kakī (black stilt), to name a few, are all descended from Ice Age Australian ancestors.

    They arrived in a New Zealand characterised by scrub, tussock and grass during cold glacial periods, followed by slowly expanding forests during warmer interglacials.

    History repeats itself

    Today, open vistas once again dominate the landscape. This time they were sculpted by humans rather than a cooling climate. The changing environment means new ecological opportunities – and vacancies – have been left by the great number of species that have gone extinct.

    The open landscapes of today mirror the impacts of the Ice Age. Forest cover is reduced, grass and scrub cover the North and South islands.
    Lubbe et al, 2025, CC BY-SA

    Correspondingly, many new species have naturalised on our shores. Welcome swallows, royal spoonbills, Australian coots, spur winged plovers and white-faced herons started making their home here during the 1930s to 50s.

    Silvereyes have been here longer, first reported during the 1850s, while glossy ibis and barn owl only started breeding here this century. All likely flew across the Tasman to settle here.

    Some arrivals seem to serve as ecological replacements of a kind. The kāhu (swamp harrier) is a stand-in for the now-extinct Eyles’ harrier and Haast’s eagle. The poaka (pied stilt) is a common sight where kakī once dominated. And Australian coots proliferate where New Zealand coots once waded.

    Native habitats for native birds

    These birds are following ancient patterns and processes. Where new opportunities appear, new organisms will rise to fill them. Our highly modified ecosystems are responding in the only way open to them, with exotic species expanding their range to take advantage of empty ecological niches – job vacancies in the ecosystem.

    Indeed, these invasions are likely to become more frequent as species distributions shift in a warming climate. As our native species decline under threats of habitat loss and predation by mammalian pests, they will be ecologically replaced by other species.

    Left to their own devices, Aotearoa’s plants and animals will look different in the future. The unique species that have called these islands home for millions of years will increasingly be replaced by more generalist species from elsewhere.

    The good news is that in predator-free native bush, endemic birds can outcompete introduced species.

    The route to protecting our native species in a fast changing world remains as clear as ever – protect and restore native habitat and eradicate mammalian predators.

    Pascale Lubbe currently receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    Michael Knapp has received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand (Rutherford Discovery Fellowship).

    Nic Rawlence receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    – ref. Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now – https://theconversation.com/loss-of-forests-brought-new-birds-to-nz-during-the-last-ice-age-were-witnessing-a-similar-process-now-248523

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The German election explained through seven essential questions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gabriele Abels, Jean Monnet Professor for Comparative Politics & European Integration, University of Tübingen

    Germany is holding a federal election on February 23 – a snap vote called by chancellor Olaf Scholz when his coalition government fell apart at the end of last year. Parties are running to win seats in the national parliament, or Bundestag. And with an unusual level of interest from onlookers outside the country, including the world’s richest man, The Conversation asked Gabriele Abels, the Jean Monnet professor for comparative politics and European integration at the University of Tübingen, to prime us on the basics, via seven essential questions.

    1. Who are the main parties running in this election?

    The parties standing in the federal election are, from left to right on the political spectrum: Linke (the Left), SPD (social democrats), Greens, FPD (liberals), CDU/CSU (conservatives), AfD (right-wing extremist/populist).

    There is also the Buednis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), but this party is not so easy to fit into the left-right spectrum. The BSW holds leftist positions on social policy issues but is also anti-migration and opposed to sanctions against Russia and against military support for Ukraine.

    2. When will we know the results?

    It will take several days after February 23 to confirm the final results of the election.

    Based on the exit polls we will have fairly reliable results that evening but there may still be some uncertainty. It depends on how many people vote by post (a trend which is on the rise) and on how the smaller parties fare.

    There are three such parties – Linke, FDP and BSW – hovering around a 5% vote-share in pre-election polls. This is the threshold for qualifying for any seats in parliament at all, so whether or not the three make it past 5% will have quite an effect on the overall composition of the Bundestag and the distribution of seats among the parties in parliament.

    There is an additional rule: parties winning at least three districts (basic mandate clause) qualify for the Bundestag and will get seats according to their share of party votes. The Linke is investing its hopes in this option.

    3. Who is most likely to become chancellor?

    According to all opinion polls, the conservatives (CDU/CSU) will win the election and become the biggest party in government. This means that their lead candidate Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor.

    4. Will one party run the government?

    No party will have enough seats to form a government alone, given that the German system makes it extremely difficult to do so, by design. A coalition needs to be formed comprising parties that together hold more than 50% of the seats in the Bundestag.



    Read more:
    AfD: how Germany’s constitution was designed with the threat of extremism in mind

    Even when we have the full results, forming a new government will, most likely, take some time. Talks between parties will start immediately after the election, but it might take several months to put a government together. It depends on the numbers at play and the political arithmetic – essentially the extent to which different combinations of parties agree or disagree on various policy positions.

    During a period in the 1950s, when Konrad Adenauer was chancellor, there was an option to have a single-party government. But even he preferred a coalition. Other than that, there has always been the need to form a coalition after an election.

    Unlike the Nordic countries, we in Germany do not have a tradition of minority governments since they are considered to be too weak and unstable. Germans prefer governments which are backed by a clear majority in the Bundestag.

    5. Why does Germany have a system that makes coalitions the norm?

    It is partly political culture to prefer stable majorities and emphasise compromise. But the proportional voting system and increased political fracturing also play a part in delivering many different parties into the Bundestag.

    Until the early 1980s there were usually three parties (conservative, social democrats and liberals). Today, we have seven parties in the Bundestag. Proportional voting gives new parties more possibilities to win seats, while the 5% threshold is a barrier against excessive fragmentation.

    6. We hear a lot about the AfD – but will it be in government?

    No – at least, not this time. There is what we call a brandmauer (firewall), meaning that, so far, none of the other parties is willing to form a government with the AfD. The most likely partner would be the conservatives. Yet, their lead candidate Merz is very outspoken that cooperation with the AfD would mean selling out the conservative soul. Given that the AfD is becoming more and more radical, this is not likely to change in the near future.

    However, there is already a level of cooperation between the AfD and other parties at the local level and even in some state parliaments, especially in East German Länder (states). Often, new patterns of coalition formation are tried out in Länder parliaments and later serve as models for the federal level. The AfD is hoping this will be the case for them.

    7. How important is this election in historical context?

    I would not call this election historic on the scale of the one that just took place in the US. But this election is nevertheless important – and is perceived as important by voters in terms of the future of Germany and its economy.

    Migration and the economy are the top issues and there is a strong sense of frustration as well as a growing distrust in politics. The majority of voters are happy about the snap election given that the coalition led by Olaf Scholz was no longer efficient and there was constant in-fighting.

    However, given that this election has been called at short notice, it’s not clear that turnout will match the current strength of feeling. There has not been much time to register for a postal vote and parties have had only a brief campaign window to win over voters. Which of them will be able to mobilise their voters and also non-voters (recently between 25% and 30% of the electorate will be a crucial deciding factor. Lately the AfD has been successful in terms of mobilising non-voters and also at mobilising young voters. That said, older voters make up the majority, so a lot hangs in the balance.

    Gabriele Abels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The German election explained through seven essential questions – https://theconversation.com/the-german-election-explained-through-seven-essential-questions-247945

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kshitij Sabnis, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Queen Mary University of London

    The US aerospace company Boom Supersonic recently announced it has successfully tested its latest aircraft, the XB-1. The company is developing a larger plane and aims to begin passenger flights at supersonic (faster than sound) speed within the next five years, and claims it already has orders from a handful of airlines.

    However, with ever-increasing scrutiny on the environmental consequences of flying, it is important to consider how supersonic aviation may affect the industry’s ability to meet its ambitious net zero by 2050 target.

    The latest test flight represents an important stage in the development of supersonic aircraft that minimise their characteristic “sonic boom” – the considerable noise generated as the shock waves travelling along with a supersonic aircraft pass over people on the ground.

    Boom Supersonic has carefully designing the aircraft shape to reduce this noise pollution. It did this by exploiting a phenomenon known as “Mach cutoff”, where air temperatures in the atmosphere cause shock waves to reflect upwards rather than towards the ground.

    Supersonic aircraft won’t receive certification to fly over land if they are too noisy, and overland flights are essential for their commercial viability. Indeed, failing to receive such certification limited Concorde’s routes to London-New York and Paris-New York, ultimately contributing to its demise. These recent noise improvements pave the way for Boom Supersonic to progress its larger 80-seat supersonic airliner, Overture. If all goes to plan, Overture will cruise at 1.7 times the speed of sound and could fly from London to New York in just 3.5 hours.

    Other organisations working on supersonic flight are making similar progress. US firm Spike Aerospace is developing a smaller business jet, for instance, while Nasa and defence and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin plan to begin test flying their supersonic X-59 later this year. There is every indication that planes like these are on their way back, more than two decades after Concorde last took to the skies.

    Concorde’s maiden flight back in 1969. It flew commercially between 1976 and 2003.
    Andre Cros / wiki, CC BY-SA

    Shock waves increase aerodynamic drag

    The key to understanding the environmental effects of supersonic aircraft is that, whenever its speed exceeds the speed of sound, shock waves form around the aircraft. These shock waves significantly increase the aerodynamic drag, and so more fuel needs to be burned to compensate for the drag force. Indeed, it is estimated that up to ten times more fuel needs to be burned by a supersonic aircraft compared to the equivalent subsonic airplane for every passenger mile.

    At supersonic speeds, sound itself is a drag.
    Chabacano / wiki, CC BY-SA

    The cost of this extra fuel is why typical aircraft speeds have remained pretty constant at around 85% of the speed of sound for several decades. It also leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions – as much as five to seven times more than subsonic aircraft.

    In fact, the situation may be even more stark. Supersonic aircraft tend to fly at high altitudes (Concorde flew at 60,000ft (18km) rather than the 40,000ft (12km) typical for most passenger jets) to take advantage of lower turbulence levels. This means their emissions tend to remain in the atmosphere for longer.

    Supersonic and sustainable?

    There are considerable efforts to align supersonic aircraft development with the aviation industry’s environmental ambitions. For instance, the new engines designed by Boom Supersonic are powered entirely by “sustainable aviation fuels” (Saf) which are direct replacements for traditional jet fuels that are made from renewable raw materials, often used cooking oil or crop residues. Due to its exclusive use of Saf, the Overture is advertised as having a zero-carbon footprint.

    A concept image of the Overture, the plane Boom Supersonic ultimately wants to build.
    Boom Supersonic, CC BY-SA

    In reality, the situation is more complex. Saf is often produced from edible crops and has been linked to deforestation – the total land required to power all of commercial aviation in this way is impractically immense.

    To address this longer-term problem, it is necessary to look towards alternative fuel sources. While hydrogen or electric power is being developed for regular aircraft, for now they aren’t developed enough to ensure a plane reaches supersonic speeds. Instead, one possibility is e-kerosene, a synthetic fuel generated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide using renewable electricity.

    Despite all these technological advances, a supersonic aircraft still cannot beat physics. Shock waves, and their associated drag, will still exist. So, a single supersonic aircraft will still produce considerably more carbon emissions than its subsonic counterpart.

    Beyond carbon emissions, contrails also have an effect. These are thin clouds of water vapour produced by aircraft exhausts, which can trap heat in the atmosphere the same way as greenhouse gases. These contrails are thought to have twice the impact of carbon emissions, or perhaps even more, so it is essential to take their effects into account. For now, we simply don’t know enough about contrails, especially at much higher altitudes, to definitively say how supersonic aircraft will affect the environment.

    Given the costs involved, supersonic aircraft will account for only a very small percentage of aircraft worldwide. The overall impact on the environment, in comparison to the tens of thousands of subsonic aircraft currently in operation, will be moderate.

    There is perhaps one environmental upside. The research and development activity making supersonic aviation more environmentally friendly (such as developments in fuel and propulsion technology) will likely yield technologies that transfer to subsonic aircraft too. This should help to address the much broader problem of environmental damage caused by the aviation industry as a whole.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kshitij Sabnis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate – https://theconversation.com/supersonic-passenger-aircraft-may-be-returning-heres-what-it-means-for-the-climate-250116

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Minimum alcohol pricing: what we found in Wales after five years

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katy Holloway, Professor of Criminology, University of South Wales

    Almost five years ago, a new law came into force in Wales making it illegal to sell alcohol for less than 50p per unit.

    Since its introduction, we have been evaluating the effects of minimum alcohol pricing and our findings have recently been published. These will help Welsh Government ministers decide on the future of the policy beyond its six-year trial period.

    The price of many alcoholic drinks in Welsh shops increased in March 2020. Most noticeably, large three litre bottles of strong white cider (containing 22 units of alcohol) rose from less than £5 to £11.

    The price of some beers, wines and spirits also increased, though to a lesser extent. In pubs, clubs and restaurants, the introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol made little difference, as prices were already well above the 50p per unit threshold.

    The main goal of the Public Health (Minimum Price for Alcohol) (Wales) Act 2018 is to reduce alcohol-related harm and protect the health of those regularly drinking more than the recommended 14 units per week.

    Contrary to popular belief, minimum pricing for alcohol is not a tax. This means that any extra money from higher prices goes to the retailers and producers, not to the Welsh government.

    While many people enjoy drinking alcohol without any problem, some patterns of alcohol use are associated with significant physical, mental and social harms. It costs UK society more than £27 billion a year through a combination of health, crime, workplace and social welfare costs.

    Research has shown that making alcohol less affordable can reduce consumption and hence related harms. The World Health Organization considers minimum pricing one of its “best buys” for tackling harmful alcohol use.

    While minimum alcohol pricing is in place in several countries, policies differ. In 2018, Scotland became the first country to introduce a national minimum price for all types of alcohol. Two years later, Wales followed suit.

    The Republic of Ireland introduced minimum pricing in January 2022, while Northern Ireland has been engaged in consultation on the policy for several years. There are no plans for the introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol in England.

    The policy was introduced in Wales primarily to protect hazardous and harmful drinkers, who tend to consume more low-cost, high-strength alcohol. But evaluating its effect has been complex, especially due to the COVID pandemic, which disrupted drinking habits and the availability of alcohol. Other economic factors, including the cost of living crisis, have also influenced affordability.

    What we found

    Many of the findings within the 11 reports from our Welsh evaluation have strong resonance with those elsewhere, particularly those of the final Scottish evaluation.

    Drawing from our research, we have five important findings. First, implementation in Wales has been smooth. Retailers have largely complied with the law, and enforcement has been effective.

    Second, certain cheap alcohol products have disappeared. Large bottles of strong cider, for example, are now rare. There have also been shifts in promotions and product availability.

    Third, there are indications that overall alcohol consumption in Wales has declined. While it is difficult to measure directly, purchasing data suggests a reduction.

    Fourth, concerns about unintended consequences have not materialised significantly. Predictions of a rise in home brewing, substance switching, shoplifting and cross-border purchasing have not been widely observed. While some people living near the border have bought alcohol in England, this appears to be opportunistic rather than nationwide.

    Finally, some drinkers have changed their purchasing habits. A minority have switched from cider to wine or spirits as price differences narrowed. Others, particularly those on low incomes, experienced further struggles in financially maintaining their drinking habits.

    Our recommendations

    Minimum pricing for alcohol is well supported by evidence. It is not without its critics, especially those citing continued trends in actual numbers of alcohol-related deaths. Its implementation in Wales has noticeable effects, most of which are positive.

    Based on our findings, we recommend that the Welsh Government retains minimum alcohol pricing. But we also recognise the need for some adjustments.



    Read more:
    Alcohol prescribing for severe withdrawal – what the research shows

    The 50p per unit price, set over a decade ago, should be reviewed. Our evidence suggests an increase in price is needed to maintain the policy’s effectiveness. We believe the policy needs to be accompanied by well-funded treatment and support services for people experiencing alcohol-related difficulties.

    Policymakers must also acknowledge the disproportionate effect of minimum alcohol pricing on those with the lowest incomes. But this should not be a reason to abandon it. We do not advocate for making unhealthy foods cheaper to tackle food poverty. The same principle applies to alcohol policy.

    Minimum alcohol pricing targets affordability rather than addressing all aspects of alcohol harm. It is not a silver bullet, and so should only be one component of comprehensive strategy delivery. If combined with other policy measures and social support, it has the potential to significantly contribute to reductions in alcohol-related harm in Wales.

    Katy Holloway currently receives funding from Health Care Research Wales and Welsh Government. She has previously received funding from a wide range of organisations including NIHR, Home Office, and Ministry of Justice.

    Wulf Livingston receives funding from Welsh and Scottish Governments, World Health Organisation, National Institute for Health Research, Health Boards, alcohol and drug commissioning partnerships and third sector charities. He has previously recieved funding from many of the aforementioned, and in addition ERSC, Local Authorities, Pocklington Trust, Alcohol research UK and Welsh Universities WIN Fund.

    – ref. Minimum alcohol pricing: what we found in Wales after five years – https://theconversation.com/minimum-alcohol-pricing-what-we-found-in-wales-after-five-years-248189

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –