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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: New report reveals that targets to save 30% of the ocean by 2030 aren’t being met

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Callum Roberts, Professor of Marine Conservation, University of Exeter

    Qasimphotographer/Shutterstock

    The world is gathering in Colombia for the UN biodiversity conference known as Cop16, a biannual pulse-taking of the living planet where actions to protect the natural world are agreed. At its last meeting in 2022, an ambitious roadmap for nature protection was put in place. As part of that Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework, the UN set a bold goal to protect 30% of the world’s land and ocean by 2030 – known as “30×30” – which was agreed by 196 countries and bodies such as the European Commission.

    A key task in Colombia will be to measure progress, and the ocean is in the spotlight. A new report reveals that growth in marine protected areas – designated nature conservation zones that are protected from one or more harmful or damaging human activities – is far too slow to achieve this target. Analysis by conservation experts shows that protected areas are too scattered and unrepresentative.

    Efforts to protect marine life lag far behind conservation on land. When 30×30 was agreed, the world had protected roughly 17% of land and 7.8% of the sea. The sea element was already behind previous targets, set in 2010 by the UN’s Convention on Biological Diversity to reach 17% and 10% protection of land and sea by 2020.

    The 30×30 target is based on what scientists say is required to protect marine diversity, unlike the arbitrary 10% target it replaces. This would give a decent chance of meeting basic conservation goals like representing the full spectrum of habitats and species, or sustaining ecosystem services, such as the provision of seafood to eat and clean water for people. The 30×30 target was designed to turbo-charge conservation, end biodiversity loss and begin nature’s recovery. It hasn’t quite worked out that way, at least not yet.

    The new report, commissioned by philanthropic initiative the Bloomberg Ocean Fund and developed in partnership with environmental organisations Campaign for Nature, the Marine Conservation Institute and SkyTruth, is sobering. Since 2022, the global ocean protected area network has grown by only 0.5 percentage points to 8.3%, still nearly 2% short of the 10% target that 30×30 replaced. On this trajectory, the world is set to crawl towards just 9.7% by 2030. The world is failing badly and there seems little urgency in the pace of progress.

    Some marine protected area designations set fishing restrictions.
    Tamil Selvam/Shutterstock

    Most marine protected areas (MPA) fail the quality test too. Assessed against a global framework of effectiveness, called the MPA guide, most marine protected areas are insufficiently protected or managed to deliver positive benefits to nature. The report calculates that only 2.8% of the world’s ocean is protected “effectively” according to MPA guide criteria. They include tiny protected areas like the South Arran MPA in Scotland, which was set up in 2014 and monitored by the local community, and the vast and still wild Ascension Island protected area that encloses 172,000 square miles (445,000km²) of the tropical Atlantic.

    Even this low figure could overestimate current effectiveness. Reporting against MPA guide criteria is not yet mandatory for countries, so inconsistent definitions of protected areas complicate measurement of progress. And while some countries have declared MPAs as either “highly” or “fully” protected, the report suggests some of these areas aren’t sufficiently funded by governmental or other means to deliver effective management.

    Country protected-area networks – that’s the the total composition of all protected areas – are badly imbalanced. In the global north, countries like the US, UK and France have declared large highly and fully protected areas in their overseas territories to boost the coverage of effective MPAs. Meanwhile, in home waters, most MPAs remain subject to destructive and extractive industrial activities such as bottom-trawl fishing or offshore energy. Their headline percentage protection numbers therefore “blue-wash” the reality of ongoing damage and biodiversity loss.

    This October, Australia expanded the sub-Antarctic Heard and MacDonald Islands MPA, leading its environment minister to declare that with 52% of Australia’s waters protected, it had far exceeded 30×30. This and other huge offshore protected areas hide the fact that only 15% of coastal seas around the main Australian landmass are protected. Much of it is still open to industrial fishing and oil and gas production.

    The 30×30 goal will also be an impossible dream until the world ratifies the UN’s high seas treaty. This was agreed in 2022 to manage and protect the colossal 61% of the ocean (43% of the Earth’s surface) that lies beyond the sovereign waters of any nation. Until that treaty comes into force, there is no agreed legal mechanism to create MPAs there. At present, just 1.4% of international waters are protected, much of them in Antarctica.

    The Bloomberg report recommends governments speed up the creation of more marine protected areas. Another new study suggests a further 190,000 MPAs will be needed to reach 30×30, equivalent to 85 new protected areas daily for the rest of this decade.

    While numbers and size matter, the world must also stop paying lip service to conservation and deliver real protection for nature, matched with sufficient and durable finance to ensure they work. And the high seas treaty needs urgently ratified, since there otherwise remains a near half-planet sized hole in ambitions for 30×30.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

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    Callum Roberts receives funding from Convex Insurance, EU H2020, and EU Synergy. He is a board member of Nekton and Maldives Coral Institute, and advisor to Minderoo Foundation, Pew Bertarelli Ocean Legacy and CORDAP, and is a Pew Marine Fellow and WWF Fellow.

    – ref. New report reveals that targets to save 30% of the ocean by 2030 aren’t being met – https://theconversation.com/new-report-reveals-that-targets-to-save-30-of-the-ocean-by-2030-arent-being-met-241584

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Black music record stores shaped the sound of the UK

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amit Dinesh Patel, Senior Lecturer in Music and Sound, University of Greenwich

    Black music record stores have always been more than just places to buy records. These spaces became lifelines for communities, cultural hubs where people gathered, shared stories and connected over a shared passion for music.

    From the early days of the Windrush generation to the present, these stores have been a vital part of the Black cultural experience. For many, they were crucial in shaping not just their musical tastes, but their sense of identity and belonging.

    I am part of a new research project, The Record Store and Black Music: A UK History, which is aiming to shine a spotlight on this legacy by documenting the untold stories of Black record stores across the UK to preserve them for future generations. Through oral histories, films and photos, we are capturing the vibrant world that flourished within these stores.

    Trailer for an upcoming documentary created as part of the project.

    “I don’t know how, especially as Black Caribbean people, we’d have survived in England if we hadn’t had music,” Claude Hendrickson, founder of the Chapeltown Youth Association Leeds, told us. His words emphasised how deeply intertwined these spaces are with the community’s survival and cultural resistance.

    For many Black people, these stores transcended their commercial nature to offer a sense of belonging, a space where you could learn about new artists, hear the latest sounds and connect with kindred spirits. As British DJ and presenter Trevor Nelson told us: “the first community I had in music was in a record shop”. He remembered how important those early interactions with his first music community were, building connections that would shape his career.

    What made these stores even more unique was their ability to foster a network of collaboration. Record shops weren’t just about selling music; they were about creating it, too. Artists, DJs, promoters, radio stations and music journalists used these spaces as meeting points to exchange ideas, feedback and be inspired.

    As David Rodigan, a legendary figure in UK radio and reggae aficionado, explained to us: “The whole business of going to a record shop was very much an advent of gathering like-minded souls.”

    The original taste-makers

    Before the age of streaming, record stores were an essential part of how music moved and evolved. Long before algorithms suggested new tracks, the person behind the counter was the original taste-maker – someone who knew their music and their community and could help shape what you listened to next.

    In this way record stores didn’t just reflect musical trends – they helped create them. For example, shops that catered to soul, R&B, reggae, jungle, drum ‘n’ bass, UK garage, dub, hip-hop, and other Black music genres played an instrumental role in shaping the UK’s music charts. They guided the preferences of their customers and, by extension, the nation.

    In an era when mainstream radio and major record labels often ignored Black music, these stores provided a crucial alternative. They were the places where artists got their start and where word of mouth helped build careers.

    In doing so, these stores became the heart of a cottage industry that supported independent artists and labels, allowing Black people to thrive in an industry that wasn’t always welcoming or accessible.

    Our project doesn’t just celebrate the past – it also asks what these spaces mean in today’s world. Although record shops aren’t as ubiquitous as they once were, their impact on the cultural landscape remains undeniable. By documenting these stories, we ensure that the contribution of Black music stores isn’t forgotten but rather remains an integral part of the UK’s cultural heritage.

    As we continue to explore and document their history, we are reminded of their immense contribution – not only to the music industry but to the very fabric of British cultural life.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Developed by 2Funky Arts, this research project was made possible by the National Lottery Heritage Fund and will include the release of a documentary, book, educational resource, podcast and website. Visit https://theblackmusicrecordshop.co.uk/ to learn more.

    – ref. How Black music record stores shaped the sound of the UK – https://theconversation.com/how-black-music-record-stores-shaped-the-sound-of-the-uk-241321

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Russia’s ‘meat grinder’ tactics in Ukraine have proved effective in past wars – but at terrible cost

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Becky Alexis-Martin, Peace Studies and International Development, University of Bradford

    Reports have emerged in recent months of particularly savage casualties among Russian troops fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, as the Russian military bids to capture as much territory as it can, possibly with one eye on a potential ceasefire deal. Much will depend on the outcome of the US election. Donald Trump has said he will end military aid to Ukraine if elected, bringing the war to an end in “one day”.

    This could mean that Kyiv will be forced to cede Ukrainian territory along current lines of occupation. Analysts have commented that this was one of the motivations for Ukraine’s Kursk offensive inside Russia in August, since territory captured by Ukraine would be a valuable bargaining chip in negotiations.

    But meanwhile Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine has been particularly bloody, with US intelligence reports of casualty numbers of up to 1,000 per day, dead and wounded. This calls to mind the “meat grinder” tactics of previous Russian and Soviet military campaigns.

    The “meat grinder” is a collective battlefield approach that values high troop density and intensity to overwhelm the enemy. It is a uniquely Russian approach nine decades in the making, consisting of a combination two much older strategies, namely attrition and mass mobilisation.

    At the heart of attrition is the notion of abundance. The opponent is physically and psychologically exhausted by the sheer force of numbers, as wave after wave of cannon fodder are relentlessly deployed. Mass mobilisation is the large-scale movement of troops to a particular location with the intention of overpowering the adversary. Neither approach recognises the intrinsic value of individual lives.

    Despite being outmatched in organisation and tactics, the Russian military successfully undertook a war of attrition against Napoleon’s invasion in 1812. A century later, the Russian empire generated enormous casualties but successfully launch large-scale counterattacks during the first world war.

    The “meat grinder” became embedded in Soviet military tactics. The phrase “quantity has a quality of its own” has apocryphal roots in Stalin’s leadership during the second world war. Key battles such as Stalingrad and Kursk involved the deployment of millions of soldiers, and the Soviet army eventually crushed the Nazi blitzkrieg through sheer weight of numbers on the eastern front.

    Past victories do not guarantee future success. But – for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his military planners – it seems the dead and disabled bodies of their own soldiers are necessary collateral damage. It is estimated that more than 70,000 Russian troops have died since 2022. But it has been reported that Russian casualty rates are now rising more rapidly due to its military’s increased reliance on inexperienced fighters.

    The state of the war in Ukraine, October 20 2024.
    Institute for the Study of War

    Civilian recruits now make up the greatest proportion of deaths since the invasion began. This increase is partially their lack of military knowledge in a challenging fighting environment against a highly motivated enemy. But inadequate medical care and poor quality protective kit are also important factors. The Russian state media shares carefully curated images and stories of the deceased but morale is still crashing, and military wives and mothers are rebelling.

    Ultimate sacrifice

    Putin’s meat grinder continues to expand, however. The Russian government announced plans to spend £133.8 billion on national security and defence in 2025, equivalent to 41% of annual government expenditure. All healthy men aged 18 to 30 can now be conscripted, and Russia has recently ordered a third increase in Russian troops. The recruitment of a further 180,000 soldiers will make Russia’s army the second largest in the world, with nearly 2.4 million members. Yet this army is unqualified and offers little protection for the individual soldier.

    Ukraine does not view its soldiers’ lives as disposable in the same way – and they are comparatively well trained and resourced. But the dynamic in Ukraine may be changing. The country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, signed new conscription laws in April 2024 that lowered the age of conscription to 25, and it has reached the point where eligible men are now being dragged away from restaurants and nightclubs by army recruiters.

    Russia’s meat-grinder tactics are not infallible and will eventually collapse. Large formations can quickly become large targets in an age of remote reconnaissance. While Russia can coerce military participation through the carrot of high wages and the stick of forced conscription, a large and unmotivated army is not well-equipped for modern warfare and will eventually produce diminishing returns.

    Even declaration of martial law in the whole of Russia – Putin introduced martial law in occupied part of Ukraine in September 2022 – would not overcome the deeply embedded structural issues Russia faces. Poor care of soldiers and veterans will generate long-term challenges in the form of disability and treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder.

    The social and cultural harms of a poor culture of care are already manifesting in Russia. Approximately 190 serious crimes have been committed by veterans upon returning home. With Putin showing no interest in peace, we can only hope that the Russian war machine burns itself out – and that the long-term consequences are not terminal.

    Becky Alexis-Martin is affiliated with the British American Security Information Council.

    – ref. Russia’s ‘meat grinder’ tactics in Ukraine have proved effective in past wars – but at terrible cost – https://theconversation.com/russias-meat-grinder-tactics-in-ukraine-have-proved-effective-in-past-wars-but-at-terrible-cost-241688

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Jasper’s wildfire recovery is challenged by its unique land classification and the approaching winter

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, Canada

    On July 24, 2024, one-third of the structures in Jasper, Alta. were destroyed when the Jasper Complex Wildfire burnt an estimated 32,722 hectares.

    As a researcher of disaster and emergency management, I visited Jasper in October to observe disaster recovery efforts there.

    The Municipality of Jasper and its federal partners are actively managing the recovery. The municipality has submitted an application for $73.14 million in expenditures for reimbursement from Alberta’s provincial Disaster Recovery Program.

    For those outside of the disaster zone, the message is that Jasper still exists and it is open for business. In the meantime, visitors need to be aware that residents are facing daunting tasks in a recovery effort that will take not months but years.

    Visiting Jasper

    As I approached Jasper from the south, through the fire-scarred Jasper National Park, I was first struck by what visually appears as a wasteland of burnt sticks in a black, brown and grey landscape.

    Burned trees in Jasper National Park landscape.
    (J. Rozdilsky), CC BY

    Proceeding into Jasper, the landscape transforms into the disfigured skeletal remains of noncombustible portions of structures — the buildings have been reduced to piles of charred, rusting and decomposing objects in vast debris fields.

    However, portions of Jasper’s built environment did survive the fire, and it is entirely possible to spend time in some parts of the town that remained intact rather than looking like a burnt-out war zone.

    Clean-up challenges

    A very visible and immediate challenge to Jasper’s practical recovery is the removal of debris.

    A streetlamp lies on the ground in Jasper, outside what remains of the Wicked Cup Café.
    (J. Rozdilsky), CC BY

    Work is underway to expedite bulk debris removal action. The action would work by removing debris across multiple properties at the same time by using one contractor.

    One of the challenges of removing the debris is the rapid approach of winter. November sees the most snowfall in Jasper, with an average snowfall of 135 millimetres.

    Despite best efforts being made, if large tracts of disaster debris become frozen in place over winter, such a situation will impede recovery progress in 2025.

    In addition to health hazards and special worker safety related to fire debris, improper management of disaster debris can impede the timely recovery of the affected area.

    Land classification

    Less visible, but nonetheless important, challenges facing disaster recovery in Jasper are unfolding policy dilemmas related to a very nuanced land tenure situation. Rules of land tenure define how access is granted to rights to use, control and transfer land, as well as associated responsibilities and restraints.

    From the public administrative perspective, Jasper is not your typical Canadian town. It is formally a provincially classified specialized municipality that exists within the boundaries of federally administered national park lands governed under the National Parks Act.

    The situation means disaster recovery will take place under a unique set of rules governing everything from land use decisions to one’s right to reside in Jasper. In Jasper, residents own their homes, but not the property they sit on; the Crown is the only landowner in the park.

    Until an amendment to the Canada Parks Act known as Bill C-76 received royal assent on Oct. 3, 2024, Jasper’s local government did not have the ability to exercise control over its own land use and planning. Under Bill C-76, the Municipality of Jasper will formally take authority over specific elements of land-use planning and development that were previously held by Parks Canada.

    However, this nuanced land tenure situation in Jasper will complicate recovery. Unanticipated consequences of overlapping interests will occur as several parties in Jasper are allocated different rights to the same parcel of land.

    Collective recovery

    A sign that Jasper was moving in the right direction was evidenced by a municipally based public information campaign consisting of posters in the town centre. The headline on the poster was “We’re in this together.”

    A poster for a public information campaign addressing residents and visitors to Jasper.
    (J. Rozdilsky), CC BY

    The left column of the poster addresses Jasper residents, while the righthand side speaks directly to visitors. Visitors were advised to “ask us about our town, the park and our community. Try not to ask us what we lost in the fire.”

    The “We’re in this together” theme related to recovery applies beyond local affairs. For those far outside of Jasper, now is the time to support the town’s unique role as a national asset, facilitating access of 2.5 million visitors yearly to Canadian natural areas.

    For Jasper’s disaster recovery, we are indeed all in this together.

    Jack L. Rozdilsky receives support for research communication and public scholarship from York University. He also has received research support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Jasper’s wildfire recovery is challenged by its unique land classification and the approaching winter – https://theconversation.com/jaspers-wildfire-recovery-is-challenged-by-its-unique-land-classification-and-the-approaching-winter-241135

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau have taken the same tepid approach to global affairs

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Adam Chapnick, Professor of Defence Studies, Royal Military College of Canada

    Nine years ago, not long before Stephen Harper’s Conservative government was replaced by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, retired diplomat Paul Heinbecker penned a brutal takedown of Canadian foreign policy.

    To Heinbecker, Harper’s appointment of five foreign ministers (and two more acting foreign ministers) over nine years indicated his government didn’t take the file seriously. That lack of seriousness helped explain why American presidents only visited three times between 2006 and 2015, leaving Canada “on the margins of global relevance.”

    Heinbecker concluded disparagingly:

    “The Harper government has turned foreign policy outside in. It has treated foreign affairs often as a means to cultivate diaspora communities and constituencies at home…. Foreign posture has replaced foreign policy.”

    Harper, Trudeau similarities

    Nine years later and another former diplomat, David Mulroney, has admonished the Justin Trudeau government’s approach to foreign policy with equal harshness.

    “Canadians show up to lecture, not listen,” he wrote in a National Post op-ed.

    One of Trudeau’s own ministers of global affairs, Marc Garneau, apparently concurs:

    “Unfortunately, Canada’s standing in the world has slipped, in part because our pronouncements are not always matched by a capacity to act or by actions that clearly demonstrate that we mean what we say …. We are losing credibility.”

    Garneau was the fourth of Trudeau’s five foreign ministers. Since 2015, American presidents have visited Canada just twice. And just like the Harper Conservatives failed in their bid to secure a seat for Canada on the United Nations Security Council in 2010, so too did the Trudeau Liberals in 2020.



    Read more:
    UN Security Council: Actually, the world doesn’t need more Canada

    The similarities don’t end there.

    Neither Harper nor Trudeau commissioned a foreign policy review. Neither fully funded the military. Both positioned women and children at the centre of relatively meagre international assistance programs. And, like Harper’s, much of Trudeau’s focus in foreign affairs seems aimed at courting domestic groups.

    ‘Unavoidably reactive’

    Our new history of Canadian foreign policy, Canada First, Not Canada Alone, explains why these similarities are unsurprising.

    Canadian governments have limited flexibility in their conduct of external affairs. As one group of foreign policy experts once said:

    “Especially for the smaller powers, the conduct of foreign policy is to some extent unavoidably reactive. For those that are securely placed and richly endowed, like Canada, the messes they confront are usually not of their own making, and the pressures they face are largely beyond their control.”

    What’s more, the country’s miraculous avoidance of a significant international attack over the last 150 years leaves most Canadians feeling safer than they probably should. In this context, it’s difficult for decision-makers to make foreign policy a strategic priority.

    Laments about the decline of Canada’s contribution to world affairs began in the 1970s, and have continued ever since. These concerns have typically been reasonable, even when Ottawa’s intentions were sincere.



    Read more:
    Canada needs a focused and flexible foreign policy after years of inconsistency

    Harper genuinely wanted to elevate the place of the Armed Forces in Canadian society, only to discover that success in Afghanistan was impossible and supporting our military was incredibly expensive.

    Trudeau’s pledge to restore Canada’s peacekeeping tradition when he became prime minister was real; he only abandoned it upon realizing that peacekeeping in the contemporary operating environment risked a significant loss of Canadian lives.

    To date, such reversals have had limited consequences. Long protected by three oceans and a friendly giant to the south, successive governments in Ottawa have been able to ignore problems that bedevil less geographically fortunate countries.

    Pivoting in a changing world

    But more recent global challenges — brutal wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, climate change, supply chain disruptions, election interference, American political polarization — serve as stark reminders that the world is changing in ways that necessitate a more active Canadian global posture.

    That new approach requires co-operation with allies and international organizations, not to mention a significant economic investment.

    The recipe for Canada First policies — those that keep the state and its people secure within a stable international system, economically prosperous, politically autonomous and united at home — is easier to articulate than it is to implement.

    It requires not just a functioning, productive relationship with our critical ally to the south, but also a commitment to a rules-based international order and multilateral approaches to conflict resolution.



    Read more:
    How minority governments can influence foreign policy

    Engaging in diplomacy

    Foreign policy practitioners negotiate and compromise, doing what is necessary to maintain credibility at home and overseas. They act without the benefit of hindsight, frequently under political pressure and short time frames.

    When they fail, the consequences of their actions are obvious. Their successes can be harder to measure, leading some to view the practice of diplomacy as elitist, exclusive and ineffective.

    At times that may be true, but that doesn’t detract from diplomacy’s key role in Canada’s viability as an independent, prosperous country. A willingness to engage in diplomacy in defence of Canadian interests must also be matched by investments in the capacity to act globally.

    The future of Canada depends on decision-makers with the humility to recognize that standing alone on the world stage is no way to protect and promote the national interest.

    Adam Chapnick and Asa McKercher received funding for this project from the Canadian Defence Academic Research Program.

    .

    – ref. Why Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau have taken the same tepid approach to global affairs – https://theconversation.com/why-stephen-harper-and-justin-trudeau-have-taken-the-same-tepid-approach-to-global-affairs-241339

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bringing the river into the gallery and the future: reimagining Birrarung 50 years from now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Crosby, Associate Professor, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney

    Postcards from the future: the river-cleaning Birrabot REALMstudios/NGV Australia

    The Ian Potter Centre at Melbourne’s Federation Square is located on the banks of the lower stretches of Birrarung, the Yarra River. For Reimagining Birrarung Design Concepts for 2070, on until 2 February 2025, the river flows into the gallery through ideas, images, objects and stories.

    In this bold and unusual exhibition, we listen to traditional owners and get inside the imaginations of eight of Australia’s most innovative landscape architecture studios. By looking at “possible” and “preferred” futures, this exhibition frames the river as a complex, diverse, interconnected ecosystem that nurtures our health and is essential to human and non-human communities.

    Urban rivers are being rethought internationally. In Australian cities, where big city rivers are often estuaries, the problems of waterways and wetlands are inseparable from colonisation and urbanisation. The fate of these cities as the climate heats up is tied to their rivers.

    Melbourne was established in 1835 at the lower stretches of Birrarung where salt water from Port Phillip Bay travels about 10 kilometres upstream. Now metropolitan Melbourne dominates and influences the landscape of its lower reaches.

    Rivers are Country

    Entering the gallery, we are invited to listen to Birrarung. The river’s voice is spoken by Uncle Dave Wandin, Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung Elder and Birrarung Council member. Originally commissioned by the 23rd Biennale of Sydney,
    the video portrait provides an important transition from the bustle of Melbourne, into the contemplative space of the exhibition.

    Many will know the river as the Yarra, or Yarra Yarra – but this was a mistranslation by a surveyor in the 1830s of another Aboriginal word Yarro Yarro, “it flows”.

    The misnamed river has suffered from disconnection from its traditional owners and severe environmental degradation.

    In 2017, the Yarra River Protection (Wilip-gin Birrarung murron) Act was passed by the Parliament of Victoria, to protect the river for future generations and to recognise the river and its lands as a single living and integrated entity. Uncle Dave Wandin is a member of the Birrarung Council, appointed to work with Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung Elders and communities, to provide independent advice to the government on the implementation of the Act.

    Barracco and Wright’s contribution to the exhibition builds on the impact of this legislation. Speculative Policies displayed as an historic document from the future in a 2035 cabinet.

    Installation view of McGregor Coxall’s design for reimagining Birrarung.
    NGV Australia/Photo: Sean Fennessy

    Colonial histories

    Thinking about legislation in future worlds helps remind us the challenges of urban rivers – pollution, storm water management, and flooding – have colonial histories.

    Waterways have long been treated as dumping grounds for Australia’s industrial progress.

    In their work Aqua Nullius, not-for-profit multidisciplinary design and research practice OFFICE points to viticulture (winegrowing) and golf courses as culprits of water extraction in the Birrarung catchment.

    The problems arise not only where water is redirected as a resource for elites, but also where the connections between waterways and wetlands are disrupted by roads, estates and colonial land use. Billabongs are cut off from their sources and creeks are converted to drains. Wildlife such as turtles, platypus and birds lose their habitat corridors.

    Terra Nullius is well known as the concept that shaped colonists approach to Australia. Aqua Nullius, OFFICE argue, is just as significant. Rivers are country – and need to be respected, cared for and healed.

    Designers from OFFICE assert the Terra Nullius concept applies to water too.
    NGV Australia/OFFICE

    Seeing like a landscape architect

    By combining ecological knowledge with architectural forms, landscape architects are often leading these goals alongside Aboriginal people. While many of Melbourne’s residents and visitors enjoy the outcomes of their designs in city parks and green infrastructure, landscape architects are rarely the focus of exhibitions in major art galleries. This exhibition shows how design projects can invite us to imagine urban rivers differently using a range of tools that bring life to possible futures.

    In this exhibition we see images, maps, models, flags, plans, animations, timelines, and even a uniform design for a future “bio-zone guide”.

    The Birrarung Catchment by McGregor Coxall projects an animated map at waist height. It shows us the past, present and potential future of the catchment, highlighting the evolution of Birrarung’s lands, health, waterways, and its relationship to people.

    Presented as a map that shifts over time, the table top animation shares a rhythm with two screens on the wall, one with a population counter and one with the changes of flow within the catchment. These three elements link the growth of urban population to the disruption of the rivers flow. Dealing with Melbourne’s anticipated population growth, the projection looks forward in time proposing ways to care for the river by establishing the Great Birrarung Parkland.

    What’s good for Birrarung …

    Not all rivers are created equal. Melbourne is a river city, planned, designed, built and managed around Birrarung.

    A short walk from the gallery, rowers launch into the river and lovers hold hands on its banks. Melbourne is Birrarung and we can see it as we move around the city. But all cities have waterways and wetlands, many less visible.

    Place-based approaches to caring for urban water is needed everywhere. And this can have flow-on effects. If we start to care for minor creeks and estuaries that are built over and forgotten, we understand connections between people, nature, water and Country. This exhibition shows those visions for the future require research, vision and political will.

    Reimagining Birrarung: Design Concepts for 2070 is on until 2 February 2025 at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia. Free admission.

    Alexandra Crosby receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    – ref. Bringing the river into the gallery and the future: reimagining Birrarung 50 years from now – https://theconversation.com/bringing-the-river-into-the-gallery-and-the-future-reimagining-birrarung-50-years-from-now-239499

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are academics more likely to answer emails from ‘Melissa’ or ‘Rahul’? The answer may not surprise you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan MacKenzie, Professor and Simons Chair in International Law and Human Security, Simon Fraser University

    Onehundredseventyfive/Unsplash, CC BY

    Universities are supposed to be places where all students can learn, free from discrimination.

    A key part of this ideal is academics welcoming all students to study and research, regardless of their racial background.

    But as our new research shows, Australian academics responded differently to potential PhD students, depending on whether they were called “Melissa” or “Rahul”.

    Racism on campus

    Many overseas and Australian studies have shown racism is both a historical and ongoing problem for universities.

    A 2020 Australian study showed universities tend to be run by older, white men. A 2021 UK study showed academics from different cultural backgrounds face racism at work.

    But there has been less specific attention paid to those trying to become academics.

    The main way people start an academic career is via a doctoral degree. In the Australian system, before a student is accepted they usually require an established academic to agree to supervise them. So a student’s initial communication with a potential supervisor is very important.

    To start a PhD, students usually need to have a supervisor lined up.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    How we set up our research

    To investigate whether racism is playing a role at the entrance point to PhD study, in 2017 we sent about 7,000 emails from fictitious students to academics based at the main campuses of Australia’s Group of Eight universities (billed as Australia’s top research universities).

    These are the Australian National University, Monash University, University of Adelaide, University of New South Wales, University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, University of Western Australia and University of Queensland.

    We emailed staff ranked senior lecturer or above, as these are the levels most likely to be supervising PhD students. Academics were identified by university websites, and we sent emails to everyone who fit our rank criteria across all disciplines.

    In this process, we found 70% of relevant academics were male and 84% were white. This did not improve in the more senior ranks – more than 68% of professors were white men.

    What did the email say?

    The emails asked for an meeting to talk about potential PhD supervision.

    They were identical apart from the senders’ names. These names were tested to be associated with male and female and with white-European, Indigenous, South Asian, Chinese and Arab identities. Recipients were randomly allocated to different name groups.

    The emails indicated the sender was an Australia-based student with fluent English. It conveyed an interest in the recipient’s research and urgency in meeting because the sender was only on campus for several days. It also noted “I have recently finished my honours degree” (a common path into a PhD in Australia) and was sent from a University of Sydney email address.

    We emailed about 7,000 senior academics as part of our study.
    Tipa Patt/Shutterstock

    What did we find?

    Responses agreeing to a meeting or requesting further information were categorised as “positive”. Those who declined a meeting were “non-positive”. Automated replies and those who did not reply were “non-responses”.

    Of 6,928 emails sent, 2,986 (43.1%) received a reply within 24 hours and 2,469 (35.6%) received a positive reply. There were 3,942 (56.9%) non-responses and 517 (7.5%) non-positive responses (declining a meeting).

    We initially planned to give academics a week to respond, but after IT at one university noticed several staff had received emails with identical text, we ended the experiment after 24 hours.

    From here, the results were stark: emails from names associated with non-white racial groups received significantly fewer responses and positive replies than those from names typically associated with white individuals.

    An email from “Melissa Smith” was far more likely to get a positive response than an identical email from “Grace Chen Jinyan” (six percentage points lower) or “Omar al-Haddad” (nine percentage points lower).

    The most dramatic gap was in the positive response rates to Melissa Smith, compared with “Rahul Kumar”. The rate of positive responses to Melissa was 12 percentage points higher than for Rahul.

    Overall, our statistical analysis showed the white-sounding names averaged a 7% higher reply rate and a 9% higher positive response rate than the non-white sounding names. Both these findings were highly statistically significant, meaning we can be very confident the results were not due to chance.

    Of course, some faculty members may simply have been unable to meet with the student, or may have missed the email. However, given the randomisation used, it is reasonable to assume bias explains the gap in responses to students with different names.

    This is alarming because it suggests racial bias is quietly influencing who gets a foot in the door of academia even before formal admissions processes begin.

    Silver linings

    One seemingly positive finding was academics at the more junior end of our study group appeared to show less bias towards students of different backgrounds.

    For academics at senior lecturer or associate professor levels, Melissa was 10.5% more likely to receive a positive response than Rahul, while the corresponding figure for full professors was 14.7%.

    However, junior academics often have little institutional power or much of a say on hiring. More research is needed to explore whether generational change is achievable (albeit painfully slow).

    We also found that, unlike similar US studies, there was no significant bias against female students. In fact, there was some evidence of positive bias, or preference, for female students.

    Our study found academics did not discriminate against potential candidates based on gender.
    Matej Kastelic/ Shutterstock

    Backlash to our study

    We based our study on a peer-reviewed study carried out in the United States, and followed a research ethics protocol approved by our university.

    However, minutes after academics received our follow-up email telling them they had been part of a research study (part of our ethics protocol), the backlash began.

    The University of Sydney, our home institution at the time, received more than 500 inquiries about the study. While some were curious or supportive, the majority were complaints. These were primarily about our use of deception (a well-researched and supported method of studying bias). Megan MacKenzie, the more junior author (at the time a senior lecturer), received calls threatening her with consequences for her career.

    Although unpleasant, the reaction was revealing. It reinforces other research on how defensive racial majorities can be when they believe they are suspected of bias. It also complements work showing internal resistance to diversity efforts in higher education.

    What can we do?

    Universities pride themselves on being meritocracies, where the best ideas and brightest minds rise to the top. But our study suggests racial bias is undermining this principle by influencing who is even considered for an academic career.

    There is growing acknowledgement racism is a significant problem on Australian university campuses (as well as in broader society). In May, the federal government asked the Australian Human Rights Commission to study the prevalence and impact of racism at Australian universities.

    But this study is not due to deliver its final report until June 2025, and any ensuing action will be further away still.

    What can be done now to tackle this issue?

    First, universities need to acknowledge academia remains overwhelmingly white and male, in spite of efforts to increase diversity.

    Second, universities also need to acknowledge the existence of racial bias, the need for ongoing research into how it operates in higher education and the most effective strategies to tackle it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Are academics more likely to answer emails from ‘Melissa’ or ‘Rahul’? The answer may not surprise you – https://theconversation.com/are-academics-more-likely-to-answer-emails-from-melissa-or-rahul-the-answer-may-not-surprise-you-241352

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Where there’s smoke: the rising death toll from climate-charged fire in the landscape

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fay Johnston, Professor, Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania

    Daria Nipot, Shutterstock

    Inhaling smoke is bad for you. Smoke from any kind of fire, from bonfire to burn-off to uncontrolled wildfire, can have serious consequences.

    Even low levels of smoke can make many heart and lung diseases worse, sometimes triggering a rapid deterioration in health. When we are repeatedly exposed over months and years, air pollution, including smoke, makes us more likely to develop heart, lung and other chronic diseases.

    Now, new international research has linked the warming climate to some of the deaths from exposure to fire smoke in large parts of the world, including Australia.

    In 2012, I led the first team to estimate the number of landscape fire smoke-related deaths globally each year. Our estimate of 339,000 deaths did not attempt to pull out the influence of climate change. But we noticed much higher impacts during hotter and drier El Niño periods.

    The researchers behind the new study took this a step further, estimating how much of the historical burden of fire smoke-related deaths might be attributable to climate change. They found a considerably increasing proportion, from 1.2% in the 1960s to 12.8% in the 2010s.

    Where there’s fire, there’s smoke

    A wall of flames is way more deadly than a bit of smoke in the air – isn’t it? It’s not so simple. When you look back at a fire disaster, the smoke-related death toll in the aftermath can be surprisingly high.

    During the extreme Australian bushfire season of 2019–20, there were 33 deaths directly related to fire. But my team found the number of smoke-related deaths was 429, more than ten times higher.

    Smoke travels vast distances and can affect very large populations. Millions of people in Australia and New Zealand breathed smoke from the 2019-20 Australian fires. The sheer scale of the air quality impacts means the associated public health burden can be very large.

    Smoke harms our health in two ways. In the short term, it makes existing diseases worse. As soon as the body detects smoke, it initiates immune and stress responses that affect, among other things, blood pressure, blood glucose and the risk of forming blood clots.

    For some people with serious chronic illness such as heart and blood vessel disease, these subtle changes can trigger deadly complications including heart attacks or strokes.

    When smoke reaches our eyes, throats and lungs, it acts as an irritant. This can be enough to make people living with asthma or other lung conditions seriously unwell.

    Over the longer term, air pollution is a known risk factor for developing heart disease, lung disease, asthma, diabetes and stroke, and landscape fire smoke is increasingly contributing to the load.

    How did the researchers find this out?

    Most research on the health impact from air pollution focuses on the damage done by fine particles called PM2.5. These particles are defined as those less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter, meaning they are small enough to get into the lungs and bloodstream.

    In the new paper, the authors used computer models to estimate how global changes in fire-related PM2.5 emissions between 1960 and 2019 had been influenced by the warming climate. To do this, they evaluated climate factors known to promote fire activity, such as higher air temperatures and lower humidity. Then, they used modelling to estimate how these changes would have influenced fire activity, smoke exposure and smoke related deaths globally.

    Using this approach, the authors attributed 669 (1.2%) of the wildfire-induced smoke-related deaths in the 1960s to climate change. But that rose to 12,566 (12.8%) in the 2010s. They found the influence of climate change was higher in some regions, including Australia.

    Climate change is making fires worse

    These reported numbers seem to be surprisingly low when put in context with previous global and regional estimates of deaths due to air pollution from landscape fires.

    But estimating how many deaths can be attributed to landscape fire smoke is a challenging task, requiring assumptions about the size and strength of the links between meteorology, fire activity, smoke production and dispersal, population vulnerability and health outcomes in the huge diversity of landscapes, climates and cultures across the world.

    Importantly, the estimates in this recent study were driven by changes in climate. But the modelling approach can less easily account for fluctuations and trends in another incredibly important driver of fire activity on Earth, human activity.

    For example, huge volumes of smoke globally are created by setting fires to burn and clear tropical forests for agriculture. Corporate activity and government policies drive these fires more than climate change, and are harder to capture in a modelling study.

    Nevertheless, these new results clearly support empirical studies showing increases in extreme fire activity attributable to climate change, and illustrates the relative impacts when other influences are held constant. Importantly, it points to parts of the world – including the north and southeast of Australia – where we can expect harmful population smoke impacts to get worse.

    The likely geographic impacts can be put together with information about the location of more vulnerable population groups, or higher population densities, to focus on responses where they are most needed. But in Australia that means pretty much everywhere, including the tropical north.

    What we can do about it?

    To adapt to a smokier world, we will need comprehensive education about escalating air quality hazards and ways to reduce the harm for both the general public and health professionals.

    These include keeping on top of long-term health conditions that could be made worse by air pollution, knowing how to keep track of air quality, and when to use strategies such as face masks, air filtration and managing the ventilation of homes and buildings to reduce individual smoke exposure.

    Adaptive responses alone do not get around the urgent need to act on climate change. Watching fire seasons around the world get steadily worse year on year really frightens me. We are getting into a vicious cycle where the hotter climate is driving more and more fire. These fires are increasingly venting long-stored carbon and contributing to further climate change.

    As well as ending the massive combustion of fossil fuels, we must halt the burning of tropical rainforests and agricultural crop residues globally. These actions will also dramatically improve air quality and health globally and support ongoing capture and storage of atmospheric carbon.

    Fay Johnston receives research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program, Asthma Australia and the health departments of the Tasmanian and ACT governments. She led the development of the air quality app AirRater, and is a founding director of AirHealth Pty Ltd, which provides air quality information services.

    – ref. Where there’s smoke: the rising death toll from climate-charged fire in the landscape – https://theconversation.com/where-theres-smoke-the-rising-death-toll-from-climate-charged-fire-in-the-landscape-241590

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump and Peter Dutton have both embraced populism. Are working-class voters buying it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has often been accused of copying former US President Donald Trump’s tactics. Some analysts even refer to Dutton, like Trump, as a “populist” who seeks political gain by pitting ordinary citizens against corrupt “elites”.

    There is evidence of this populism in the willingness of Trump, Dutton and other figures in their parties to attack “big business”.

    This is unusual for the conservative parties, and it has alarmed business-aligned outlets like the Wall Street Journal and the Australian Financial Review.

    Republicans and Liberals have always preferred to identify with small business rather than big business. Their relationship with corporate interests has not always been smooth.

    But they do not believe there is a natural conflict between business and workers, or between different sections of the economy. And they usually align with big business on the critical issues of taxation and government regulation.

    So Dutton’s declaration earlier this year that the Liberal Party is “not the party of big business” but “the friend of the worker” marks a notable rhetorical shift, even if there is reason to doubt the substance behind it.

    It mirrors a similar shift to pro-worker rhetoric among leading Republicans. Florida Senator Marco Rubio said in 2020, for instance, the future of the Republican Party is based on “a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition”.

    Expanding their share of the working-class vote may be necessary for both parties, given their losses of tertiary-educated, middle-class voters and seats in recent elections. Economic populism may be one path to do it.

    But how economically populist can conservative parties get in either country?

    Why attack big business?

    A lot of Republican and Liberal attacks on big business are fundamentally cultural rather than economic.

    Publicly-owned corporations have embraced diversity, equity and inclusion policies. They declare commitments to “sustainability”. And plenty of them have backed causes like marriage equality, Black Lives Matter and the Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

    However cosmetic these gestures are, many conservatives see major corporations as culturally hostile to them. More importantly, they no longer see big business and finance as reliable political backers.

    And they don’t need them like they once did. Dynastic wealth in both countries has seen the ascendancy of private companies owned by super-rich individuals and families. These, not corporate donors, are now the most consistent sources of financial and political support for conservative parties.

    These changing conditions have given Republicans and Liberals a free hand to make big business – never a popular entity – into a target of populist campaigns.

    Many of their attacks are about “wokeness”. But not all. Consumer protection has also become an opportune theme, given the cost of living crisis in both the United States and Australia.

    Trump, for instance, has floated capping credit card interest rates at 10%. Dutton has proposed using the government’s divestiture powers to break up supermarket and hardware chains that are accused of using their monopoly power to exploit consumers and suppliers.

    They can propose these ideas because voters usually trust the Republican and Liberal parties more than their opponents on economic issues. Most Democratic and Labor politicians would be unwilling to take populist measures that far because of their perennial fears of being seen as economically irresponsible.

    But when it comes to actually siding with workers over business, a different picture emerges.

    The Republican romance with ‘union workers’

    As president, Trump had a notably anti-union record. His appointees to the National Labor Relations Board, which enforces labour law, consistently ruled against unions.

    In Trump’s current campaign to re-enter the White House, unions have criticised him for holding a rally appealing to “union workers” at a non-union shop, and for praising tech billionaire Elon Musk because he sacked workers who threatened to strike.

    Trump also said recently that as a business owner he hated paying overtime. He has also previously said he preferred to use non-union workforces.

    Despite all this, the Trump campaign is making a serious play for the votes of unionised workers, who could be critical in Midwestern battleground states.

    Although unions as organisations usually support Democrats, the number of voters in union households who support Republicans is sometimes more than 40%.

    This year, Trump sought the endorsement of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the North American truck drivers’ union with 1.3 million members. The Teamsters have supported Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 2000, but prior to that, the organisation had also backed Republican candidates like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush.

    This year, the Teamsters did not join most other unions in quickly endorsing Democratic incumbent Joe Biden before he stepped aside for Vice President Kamala Harris.

    The Teamsters’ president, Sean O’Brien, almost got into a fight with a Republican senator in a committee hearing in 2023 after calling him a “greedy CEO who acts like he’s self-made”. Nonetheless, he got an invitation to speak at this year’s Republican National Convention. He praised Trump as a “tough SOB”, but then blasted various businesses and business organisations for being anti-union, to the discomfort of the audience.

    Teamsters President Sean O’Brien addressing the Republican National Convention.

    The Teamsters ultimately endorsed neither candidate. However, they released polling showing nearly 60% of their members supported Trump compared to a third for Harris.

    Trump-era Republicans frequently praise “union workers” rather than actual unions. When Senators JD Vance (now Trump’s running mate) and Josh Hawley supported the striking United Auto Workers last year, they criticised the union’s leadership. But they are happy to be seen as being on the side of unionised workers against big businesses who send manufacturing jobs overseas, a trend Trump promises to reverse.

    The term “union workers” prompts conservative nostalgia, especially for a group like the Teamsters with their mostly male membership and reputation for toughness. It evokes the anti-communist, blue-collar workers of the 1960s and ‘70s who supported Nixon and brawled in the streets with college-educated anti-Vietnam War protesters.

    That is not the only nostalgic element. Through heavily protectionist measures, Trump is promising to restore millions of manufacturing jobs to the United States – the kinds of jobs that used to be largely unionised. He also promises to roll back environmental regulations to expand mining, drilling and fracking on federal land. Again, these are the kinds of jobs often associated with “union workers”.

    When Trump and others praise “union workers”, they are not really talking about unions, but a certain type of blue-collar job they are promising to create and protect. “Union” in this context has the positive connotation of well-paid, stable work.

    But Trump claims it is his policies that will guarantee these jobs, making unions themselves virtually irrelevant.

    Where Liberals won’t follow

    Dutton may praise workers, but he is unlikely to add the prefix “union” anytime soon. It is hard to imagine any Liberal leader courting the support of a union because Australia’s party system effectively enshrines the country’s adversarial industrial relations system in its politics.

    The Australian Labor Party began as the parliamentary wing of the union movement, and to this day affiliated unions are entitled to 50% of delegates at party conferences. American unions are not linked to the Democratic Party in the same way.

    This does not mean the votes of union members are off-limits to other parties. In 2006, then-economist (now Labor MP) Andrew Leigh estimated about a third of union members voted for the Coalition on a two party-preferred basis from 1966 to 2004. But Liberals will not appeal to these voters as “union workers” in the same way Republicans do.

    Trump’s dream of restoring American manufacturing dominance would involve a resurgence of long-term employment in large and medium-sized firms. He is promising the stability once associated with unions, not the “flexibility” that Australia’s Liberals want in workplaces.

    For the most part, Liberals still prefer to talk about blue-collar workers as independent tradespeople or aspiring business owners rather than employees.

    Dutton says the modern Liberal Party is the friend of “small business owners and employees in that business”. This conjures images of family-like operations where staff loyally put in unpaid overtime – instead of larger, impersonal workplaces (where unpaid overtime is also the norm).

    And unlike Trump Republicans, the Liberal and National parties still believe in free trade. After a long bipartisan opposition to protectionism, Labor has recently embraced a major new industrial policy. The Coalition is not on board.

    Some doubt whether Trump is a genuine populist. But he has a wider scope for genuinely populist rhetoric than Dutton, at least for now.

    Even though he’s a symbol of capitalist excess, part of Trump’s message is that capitalism has taken a wrong turn. Not just into excessive wokeness, but into globalisation and financialisation, where investment and speculation are more profitable than production.

    There are limits to how much any Liberal leader, even Dutton, can tap into anger with capitalism itself.

    David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump and Peter Dutton have both embraced populism. Are working-class voters buying it? – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-and-peter-dutton-have-both-embraced-populism-are-working-class-voters-buying-it-240309

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Andrew Garfield and Elmo are going viral with their moving chat. Celebrities can help us talk about grief

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Breen, Professor of Psychology, Curtin University

    Sesame Workshop/YouTube

    When was the last time you heard someone talk in detail about their grief?

    For many of us, it could be rarely or never. There are several reasons for this.

    Grieving people often avoid raising the topic in conversation because they want to avoid upsetting or burdening people. Family and friends of grieving people often feel unsure or uncomfortable about asking them to talk about it, fearing they will infringe on the person’s privacy. One study of grieving adults in Australia and Ireland showed nearly one-third said they didn’t receive the support they would have liked. Some experts note we tend to deny or minimise others’ grief, increasing their isolation.

    Actor Andrew Garfield, best known for playing Spiderman, appeared on Sesame Street last week and spoke with Elmo in moving and affirming ways about grieving his mother’s death. Clips of their short conversation have been widely shared on social media. It presents a great example of communicating well about grief.

    Sadness can be a gift explains Garfield, ‘a lovely thing to feel in a way because it means you really loved somebody when you miss them.’

    Kids grieve too

    Issues around grief and isolation can be the same for children and young people as for older people.

    In fact, grief in young people is recognised as “the last taboo in public health”. By the age of 18, around one in 20 children have a parent die. Even more will experience grief following the deaths of other close people such as siblings and grandparents. Children also grieve the deaths of pets. Yet we struggle to acknowledge, let alone understand and help them with the grief.

    Due to a desire to protect them from harm or distress, adults are often reluctant to talk about dying and death with children. We also underestimate their abilities to understand such difficult topics. My recent work with Lionheart Camp for Kids shows such good intentions leave grieving children with many unanswered questions.

    So it was great to see Andrew Garfield (who has discussed the topic before on talk shows and in interviews) share his experience on children’s television.

    Losing the person who gave you life is bizarre tells Anderson Cooper. ‘It doesn’t make sense.’



    Read more:
    ‘Why did he Leve Me?’ 5 things grieving children want to know about the death of a loved one

    It takes two (or more)

    Their exchange begins with the character of Elmo checking in with Garfield, to see if he’s OK. He asks in a warm and open-ended way.

    What Garfield communicates well is checking if Elmo is willing and comfortable to hear him talk about his thoughts and feelings. He conveys his feelings of grief and speaks about how missing someone is due to love. He shares his understanding about the comforting role memories can bring to the bereaved, and about recognising a deceased person can be celebrated and missed at the same time.

    Elmo also does a great job of listening. He normalises Garfield’s thoughts and feelings, and gently affirms his memories of his deceased mother. Importantly, Elmo doesn’t make the conversation about himself or resort to tired clichés like “this shall pass” or “she’d want you to move on”. He doesn’t minimise his discomfort with jokes or provide unsolicited advice on how to feel or behave.

    Social support in the wake of loss helps grieving people – if it’s done right. Too often, however, it’s not, and can leave grieving people more distressed.

    Though an almost universal need, providing effective social support for grieving people is a complex process. It must involve:

    • a potential supporter recognising the bereaved person’s need for support

    • support that is available, sufficient and offered to the bereaved

    • them perceiving the support as helpful.

    Perceptions of whether an offer if support is useful can depend on where it comes from, the type of support, whether it is offered at the right time, and the griever’s level or receptiveness or social isolation.

    Listening, validating, support

    Garfield and Elmo aren’t the first celebrities to talk openly about grief.

    But in daily life, it’s rare to hear anyone talk openly about these feelings. That’s why it’s so refreshing when people in the public eye break the taboo that surrounds grief and loss. It is important for grieving people of all ages to be able to talk about their grief and be listened to. For potential supporters, it is enriching to think about they can listen, validate and support.

    As Garfield and Elmo show, grieving people and their support people can work together to develop a compassionate connection in a conversation that benefits both parties.

    Lauren Breen receives funding from Healthway and has previously received funding from Wellcome Trust, Australian Research Council, Department of Health (Western Australia), Silver Chain, iCare Dust Diseases Board (New South Wales), and Cancer Council (Western Australia). She is on the board of Lionheart Camp for Kids and is a member of Grief Australia and the Australian Psychological Society.

    – ref. Andrew Garfield and Elmo are going viral with their moving chat. Celebrities can help us talk about grief – https://theconversation.com/andrew-garfield-and-elmo-are-going-viral-with-their-moving-chat-celebrities-can-help-us-talk-about-grief-241782

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New research shows problematic community attitudes allow child sexual abuse to continue

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea de Silva, Adjunct professor, Monash University

    Many Australians are victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.

    Almost one in three have been sexually abused as a child, generally more than once, and often with significant and lifelong impacts.

    The National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse has released findings from more than 4,000 adults in a new study examining the community’s attitudes towards, knowledge of, and responses to child sexual abuse.

    The data reveal some troubling findings, with pervasive and harmful community norms and attitudes that act to enable child sexual abuse to continue.

    What are social norms?

    Social norms are “rules” shared among people in a particular society, community, or group, and define what is considered “normal” and appropriate behaviour within the group.

    These rules are often unwritten and not openly discussed.

    These norms influence what people do (and don’t do) in many aspects of life, including preventing and responding to child sexual abuse.

    Why do they matter?

    Some cultures’ norms and attitudes limit disclosure of abuse.

    In our study, 62% were pretty sure they knew someone who had been sexually abused as a child.

    Yet only 9% had directly been told by a child about being sexually abused, while 35% had been told by an adult about historical child sexual abuse.

    These low rates suggest there are forces at play that limit talking about child sexual abuse.

    Some in the community believe it’s not acceptable to discuss child sexual abuse. In response to a hypothetical disclosure by an adult friend, about one in ten thought it was very/extremely important to tell their friend that it’s best not to talk about it at all.

    Some (5%) reported they would try to avoid their friend.

    What else did the research reveal?

    There was also evidence community members didn’t think child sexual abuse was an important problem or that it affected them directly.

    Around two in three adults felt they were not directly affected or were unsure if they were affected by child sexual abuse. More than half didn’t think child sexual abuse happened where they live.

    One in ten thought child sexual abuse receives too much media coverage.

    Some norms and attitudes also limit intervention to stop child sexual abuse.

    We found that of those who discovered or received a child’s disclosure about sexual abuse, less than half had a supportive conversation with the child (about 40%) and/or reported to authorities like police or child protection agencies (about 30%).

    Also, almost one in three adults were “not at all” confident about how to talk to the parent/carer of a child they suspected had been sexually abused. More than a quarter (28%) felt “not at all” confident about how to start a conversation with the child they suspected had been sexually abused.

    Not having these conversations or not reporting maintains secrecy around child sexual abuse. It can send a message to victims and survivors not to talk about it, or that nothing will be done to stop the abuse.

    Though the lack of intervention may be due to a lack of confidence, we also found adults held attitudes that children can’t always be believed (22%) or were too unreliable to take their word over an adult’s (18%).

    These attitudes mean many children won’t be believed and protected if they disclose sexual abuse.

    Some norms and attitudes increase acceptance of child sexual abuse, or blame victims, especially adolescents.

    Alarmingly, 40% of respondents in the study thought older children were responsible for actively resisting an adult’s sexual advances, and 12% believed adolescent girls who wear very revealing clothing are “asking” to be sexually abused.

    Adding to this, 13% believed children who act “seductively” are at least partly to blame if an adult responds sexually, while 8% thought obedient children are less likely to experience child sexual abuse, implying “good” children won’t be sexually abused.

    These harmful attitudes misdirect the blame for the abuse onto the victim, making it unsafe for them to disclose and at the same time, making it acceptable for adults to stay silent.

    Blaming victims maintains the status quo of unacceptably high levels of child sexual abuse and causes further harm.

    Where to from here?

    Putting an end to the sexual abuse of children in Australia requires concerted and co-ordinated action at all levels of society.

    Global initiatives offer some guidance on how shifting entrenched and harmful attitudes and norms can change behaviours.

    At a minimum, we must challenge gender inequality and power imbalances, promote equitable relationships and shared responsibilities. Mobilisation programs intervening directly at the community level and initiatives with specific populations who hold harmful and problematic attitudes are also promising in preventing child sexual abuse.

    Now we have benchmarks on the community’s attitudes towards child sexual abuse, we can measure the effectiveness of Australia’s efforts for change.

    It is everyone’s responsibility to know the signs, listen, believe and act in response to child sexual abuse.

    Andrea de Silva works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted this study. The National Centre is funded by the Department of Social Services. The National Centre is a partnership between the Australian Childhood Foundation, Blue Knot Foundation and the Healing Foundation.

    Amanda L. Robertson works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted the study with funding from the Department of Social Services.

    – ref. New research shows problematic community attitudes allow child sexual abuse to continue – https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-problematic-community-attitudes-allow-child-sexual-abuse-to-continue-241792

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Israel’s actions in Gaza, backed by the US, are shaking the world order to its core

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Dunning, Sessional Academic, School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University

    While the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could have provided an off-ramp for the conflict in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing vows of “total victory” make this seem unlikely.

    The concept of “total victory”, however, is extremely problematic. Every time Israel declares an area cleared of Hamas and then withdraws, Hamas, which carried out the horrific attack on southern Israel on October 7 2023, has quickly returned to reestablish control.

    As a result, there has been a marked Israeli escalation in northern Gaza in recent days, and much discussion about a so-called “general’s plan” being pushed by some right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government.

    Concocted by a former Israeli general, Giora Eiland, the plan is, in essence, to forego negotiations, bisect the enclave and give northern Gaza’s 400,000 inhabitants the bleak choice between leaving and dying.

    We don’t know whether Netanyahu will officially endorse the plan. Israeli leaders reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week they are not implementing it. However, it nonetheless has broad support among Israel’s political and military elite.

    The Israeli military has already issued expulsion orders to the people of northern Gaza. The government has said anyone who remains would be considered a military target and will be deprived of food and water.

    While Israel denies obstructing humanitarian aid, the World Food Program said no food aid entered northern Gaza for two weeks in early October. While some aid has been entering since then, thousands are still at risk of starvation and outbreaks of preventable diseases.

    Moreover, many Palestinians, including the sick, elderly and wounded, are unable to move and have nowhere to go. The prospect of the overcrowded and unprotected tent cities of the south is hardly enticing.

    Israeli human rights groups say the military had been deliberately blocking aid to give the population no choice but to leave northern Gaza. Israel may now be backtracking under pressure from the United States, which has given Netanyahu’s government a 30-day deadline to increase the amount of aid it allows into Gaza or risk losing US weapons funding.

    Undermining international norms and rules

    Israel’s war against Gaza, and now Lebanon, has repeatedly challenged the foundations of the liberal international rules-based order set up after the second world war, as well as the tenets of international law, multilateral diplomacy, democracy and humanitarianism.

    The norms of the liberal world order are expressed in various institutions, such as:

    • the UN Charter
    • the UN Security Council, with its notionally legally binding resolutions
    • the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague
    • the Geneva Conventions governing the rules of war
    • the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
    • and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), among many others.

    Recently, the ICJ ruled Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is illegal and ordered it to withdraw. In response, Netanyahu said the court had made a “decision of lies”.

    In a separate case, South Africa brought a charge to the ICJ, alleging Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian people over the past year. The world’s top court has preliminarily ruled there is a “plausible” case for a finding of genocide, and said Israel must take measures to ensure its prevention.

    At this juncture, however, human rights groups and others have argued that Israel has failed to comply with this order, thereby undermining one of the key institutions of the liberal world order.

    This is compounded by the fact that few major democratic states have been willing to strongly condemn Israel’s failure to comply with international law in Gaza – or have done so belatedly – let alone intervened in any concrete fashion.

    In addition, the UN Security Council has failed – primarily due to the veto power exercised by the US – to take any tangible measures to enforce its own resolutions against Israel, as well as the rulings of the ICJ.

    This is fuelling widespread perceptions of hypocrisy in relation to the accountability of notionally democratic states for alleged violations of humanitarian law, compared with other nations that don’t have great power patrons.

    In the early 1990s, for instance, the UN Security Council unanimously passed several resolutions against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, followed a decade later by resolutions demanding Saddam Hussein’s regime comply with weapons inspection mandates. The US and its allies used these resolutions as the legal justification for their invasion of Iraq. Ultimately, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan later said the invasion of Iraq was illegal and contrary to the UN Charter.

    However, dozens of UN Security Council resolutions concerning Israel have been passed and not enforced. Many others have been vetoed by the US.

    The prosecutors of the ICC have also requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity (in addition to several Hamas leaders, now dead). The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were met with indignation by some Western politicians. Yet, the West broadly praised the ICC’s arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Furthermore, the US Congress attempted to sanction the court over the Netanyahu arrest warrant, once again underscoring the often selective way in which international law is applied by nation states.

    A crisis of legitimacy for the world order

    Democratic states like to present themselves as the protectors, and sometimes enforcers, of the liberal world order, ensuring continued international peace and security.

    Indeed, Israel and its supporters often characterise its military actions as the forward defence of the democratic world against tyrannical larger powers, as a means of protecting itself from adversaries that want to destroy it. The problem is Israel’s actions often directly contradict the liberal world order it purports to defend, thereby undermining its legitimacy.

    Failure to rein in Israel’s actions has led to accusations of “double standards” regarding international law. The US and Germany provide Israel with 99% of its arm imports and diplomatic cover. Although Germany has stopped approving new weapons exports to Israel, both countries certainly have more leverage to stop the carnage in Gaza if they wish.

    The West’s self-abrogated moral superiority is arguably in tatters as it continues to undermine the principles of the liberal world order. The question is: if this world order falls, what will the new world order look like?

    Tristan Dunning has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.

    Shannon Brincat has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.

    Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Israel’s actions in Gaza, backed by the US, are shaking the world order to its core – https://theconversation.com/israels-actions-in-gaza-backed-by-the-us-are-shaking-the-world-order-to-its-core-241460

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Should a big tech tax fund news? A new report reopens debate on platforms and media

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Meta’s announcement nearly eight months ago that it would no longer do commercial deals under the News Media Bargaining Code has led to much speculation as to how the government would respond.

    The code became law in 2021. Facing the threat of designation under it – which would involve further legal obligations platforms may wish to avoid – both Google and Facebook (now Meta) did deals with news media businesses worth up to A$250 million per year.

    Google did deals with essentially all qualifying news media business, large and small – the criteria largely being that their journalists provide news. Facebook did deals with news businesses likely employing up to 85% of Australian journalists

    With little response from the government so far, a new report from a federal parliamentary committee investigating the impact of social media on Australian society provides welcome focus on this issue.

    Key recommendations

    The committee makes 11 recommendations, three of which in particular are worth focusing on.

    Recommendation two says the Australian government should explore alternative revenue mechanisms to supplement the code, such as a digital platform levy. But it also says “exploration should include consideration for preserving current and future commercial deals”, presumably under the code.

    Recommendation three says the Australian government should develop an appropriate mechanism to guide the fair and transparent distribution of revenue arising from any new revenue mechanisms. In particular, this would support the:

    sustainability of small, independent and digital only publishers, as well as those operating in underserved communities and rural, regional and remote areas.

    Recommendation six says the Australian government “should investigate the viability and effectiveness of ‘must carry’ requirements for digital platforms in relation to Australian news content”.

    Coalition members provided a different perspective on some of the committee’s recommendations. They expressed concern about the lack of action from the government in response to Meta’s decision to not do more deals under the code. Further, they read the report as saying that the code is “no longer fit for purpose” – a view they strongly disagree with.

    Meta has also heavily criticised the committee, saying it has ignored:

    the realities of how our platforms work, the preferences of the people who use them, and the value we provide news publishers who choose to post their content on our platforms.

    Meta, parent company of Instagram and Facebook, is strongly opposed to paying a levy to fund news media.
    QubixStudio/Shutterstock

    Not so simple

    The committee’s recommendations raise many questions.

    First, how would the levy sit with wanting to maintain existing and future deals under the code? In any solution to dealing with Meta it would seem silly to damage the current arrangements with Google, which has committed to continue supporting news organisations under the code, and who are paying the majority of the up to $250 million per year?

    Second, biasing any revenue to smaller and/or rural and regional publishers may mean that, despite most news stories coming from the larger media companies, they would not benefit in accordance with their content being used. The code did see benefit to large, medium and small media businesses. But, of course, the larger companies gained most money as they provided most content.

    Some smaller media businesses did miss out on funding. But it was often judged that they do not provide news journalism, which was what the code is seeking to promote.

    In 2018, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (of which I was then chair) made a number of recommendations to the government. These included the code. They also included government funding for journalism in underserved areas and support for other objectives, such as boosting smaller news media companies. A different objective requiring a different policy instrument.

    Third, the problem that arose with Meta’s decision to not do further deals under the code saw many calls for Meta to be designated under the code. This would have meant they would be forced to do deals and potentially face arbitration if the news media businesses were not happy with the outcome.

    As the parliamentary committee would be aware, when Canada largely copied the code, it automatically designated Meta. In response, Meta took all news and links to news off its platform. This allows Meta to escape the Canadian version of the code as it only applies to platforms that carry news.

    One solution to this is to insist the tech platforms “must carry” news, as suggested in recommendation six. Then they would be back under the code and could be successfully designated and forced to negotiate. It is unclear in the report whether the “must carry” idea, which would make the code relevant to all platforms, is an alternative to the levy.

    A way through

    Overall, the report provides welcome renewed focus on this topic. By recommending the government “explore” a levy or “investigate” must carry obligations, the committee appears to recognise the potential difficulties with these options.

    Would there be international trade implications from a levy? How would money from a levy be distributed? It is one thing to have a fund to help small players in underserved markets; quite another for the government to be distributing money to large media players.

    And how would the “must carry” provision be enforced given that carrying content may not be the same as users discovering it?

    But there may be a way through these problems. Allow Google to continue as they are under the code, look at what other platforms need to be covered by the code, and threaten that if Meta or another platform were to take news off their site, then a levy or a must carry provision would be introduced. In the case of Meta, such threats, which must be real, could see them revert to doing deals under the code.

    To help new and emerging news journalism, particularly in underserved areas, this would seem to require government funding, as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission recommended all the way back in 2018.

    Rod Sims is a former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

    – ref. Should a big tech tax fund news? A new report reopens debate on platforms and media – https://theconversation.com/should-a-big-tech-tax-fund-news-a-new-report-reopens-debate-on-platforms-and-media-241897

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New Prada-designed spacesuit is a small step for astronaut style, but could be a giant leap for sustainable fashion

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alyssa Choat, Lecturer in Fashion and Textiles Design, University of Technology Sydney

    For its recent Spring/Summer 2025 show, fashion brand Diesel filled a runway with mounds of denim offcuts, making a spectacle of its efforts to reduce waste.

    Haunting yet poetic, the “forgotten” byproducts of fashion production were reclaimed and repurposed into something artful. But the irony isn’t lost, given fashion shows like this one demand significant resources.

    Diesel’s event is an example of a growing trend towards the “spectacle of sustainability”, wherein performative displays are prioritised over the deeper, structural changes needed to address environmental issues.

    Can the fashion industry reconcile its tendency towards spectacle with its environmental responsibilities? The recent spacesuit collaboration between Prada and Axiom Space is one refreshing example of how it can, by leaning into innovation that seeks to advance fashion technology and rewrite fashion norms.

    Performance art instead of substantive change

    The fashion industry has always relied on some form of spectacle to continue the fashion cycle. Fashion shows mix art, performance and design to create powerful experiences that will grab people’s attention and set the tone for what’s “in”. Promotional material from these shows is shared widely, helping cement new trends.

    However, the spectacle of fashion isn’t helpful for communicating the complexity of sustainability. Fashion events tend to focus on surface-level ideas, while ignoring deeper systemic problems such as the popularity of fast fashion, people’s buying habits, and working conditions in garment factories. These problems are connected, so addressing one requires addressing the others.

    It’s much easier to host a flashy event that inevitably feeds the problem it purports to fix. International fashion events have a large carbon footprint. This is partly due to how many people they move around the world, as well as their promotion of consumption (whereas sustainability requires buying less).

    The pandemic helped deliver some solutions to this problem by forcing fashion shows to go digital. Brands such as Balenciaga, the Congolese brand Hanifa and many more took part in virtual fashion shows with animated avatars – and many pointed to this as a possible solution to the industry’s sustainability issue.

    But the industry has now largely returned to live fashion shows. Virtual presentations have been relegated to their own sectors within fashion communication, while live events take centre stage.

    Many brands, including Prada, held fashion shows without guests during lockdowns in 2021.

    Towards a sustainable fashion future

    Technology and innovation clearly have a role to play in helping make fashion more sustainable. The recent Prada-Axiom spacesuit collaboration brings this into focus in a new way.

    The AxEMU (Axiom Extravehicular Mobility Unit) suits will be worn by Artemis III crew members during NASA’s planned 2026 mission to the Moon. The suits have been made using long-lasting and high-performance materials that are designed to withstand the extreme conditions of space.

    By joining this collaboration, Prada, known for its high fashion, is shifting into a highly symbolic arena of technological advancement. This will likely help position it at the forefront of sustainability and technology discussions – at least in the minds of consumers.

    Prada itself has varying levels of compliance when it comes to meeting sustainability goals. The Standard Ethics Ratings has listed it as “sustainable”, while sustainability scoring site Good on You rated it as “not good enough” – citing a need for improved transparency and better hazardous chemical use.

    Recently, the brand has been working on making recycled textiles such as nylon fabrics (nylon is a part of the brand DNA) from fishing nets and plastic bottles. It also launched a high-fashion jewellery line made of recycled gold.

    Innovating for a changing world

    Prada’s partnership with Axiom signifies a milestone in fashion’s ability to impact on high-tech industries. Beyond boosting Prada’s image, such innovations can also lead to more sustainable fashions.

    For instance, advanced materials created for spacesuits could eventually be adapted into everyday heat-resistant clothing. This will become increasingly important in the context of climate change, especially in regions already struggling with drought and heatwaves. The IPCC warns that if global temperatures rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, twice as many mega-cities are likely to become heat-stressed.

    New innovations are trying to help consumers stay cool despite rising temperatures. Nike’s Aerogami is a performance apparel technology that supposedly increases breathability. Researchers from MIT have also designed garment vents that open and close when they sense sweat to create airflow.

    Similarly, researchers from Zhengzhou University and the University of South Australia have created a fabric that reflects sunlight and releases heat to help reduce body temperatures. These kinds of cooling textiles (which could also be used in architecture) could help reduce the need for air conditioning.

    One future challenge lies in driving demand for these innovations by making them seem fashionable and “cool”. Collaborations like the one between Prada and Axiom are helpful on this front. A space suit – an item typically seen as a functional, long-lasting piece of engineering – becomes something more with Prada’s name on it.

    The collaboration also points to a broader potential for brands to use large attention-grabbing projects to convey their sustainability credentials. In this way they can combine spectacle with sustainability. The key will be in making sure one doesn’t come at the expense of the other.

    Alyssa Choat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New Prada-designed spacesuit is a small step for astronaut style, but could be a giant leap for sustainable fashion – https://theconversation.com/new-prada-designed-spacesuit-is-a-small-step-for-astronaut-style-but-could-be-a-giant-leap-for-sustainable-fashion-240551

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper house. At the 2020 election, Labor won 52 of the 93 seats, the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 and all others seven. Labor won the two-party statewide vote by an estimated 53.2–46.8.

    There have been two recently released Queensland polls, with both showing a reduction in the LNP lead from landslide margins the last time the same polls were released. However, the LNP is still very likely to win on Saturday.

    A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted October 10–16 from a sample of 1,503, gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous YouGov poll in July. Primary votes were 41% LNP (down two), 31% Labor (up five), 11% Greens (down three), 11% One Nation (down two) and 6% for all Others (up two).

    Labor premier Steven Miles had a net approval of -10, up three points, with 44% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval slumped 11 points to +6. Crisafulli led Miles by 37–36 as better premier, down from a 40–29 lead in July.

    A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted October 14–19 from a sample of 1,003, gave the LNP a 53–47 lead by respondent preferences and a 52–48 lead by 2020 election preference flows. This is the first time Resolve has given a two-party result for its Queensland polls.

    Primary votes were 40% LNP (down four since the previous Resolve poll that was conducted over four months from June to September), 32% Labor (up nine), 11% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up one), 2% independents (down seven) and 5% others (up one).

    In its previous polls, Resolve asked all respondents if they would vote for independents. In this poll that was taken after nominations closed, they only asked for independents where independents were standing, so the independent vote crashed.

    Crisafulli led Miles by 39–37 as preferred premier (40–27 in September). Miles had a +8 net approval (47% good, 38% poor), while Crisafulli was at net +7 approval. On issues, the LNP led Labor by 22 points on crime, with the two parties were within two points on cost of living, housing and health.

    The key reasons why Labor is likely to be defeated are an “it’s time” factor as Labor has governed since winning the January 2015 election, the federal Labor government tending to hurt state Labor parties and Queensland easily being the most pro-Coalition state at the 2022 federal election.

    At that election, Queensland was the only state where the Coalition won the two-party vote (by 54.1–45.9). The second best state for the Coalition was New South Wales, where Labor won the two-party vote by 51.4–48.6.

    US election still very close, but Harris’ national lead drops

    The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–47.2, a gain for Trump since Sunday, when Harris led by 49.1–46.8. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

    In Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), there’s now a 48.0–48.0 tie in Silver’s poll averages. Harris remains barely ahead in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.5 points, Wisconsin (ten) by 0.7 and Nevada (six) by 0.4. But without Pennsylvania, Harris leads in states
    worth 257 electoral votes and Trump in states worth 262, down from a 276–262 Harris lead on Sunday.

    On the current numbers, whoever wins Pennsylvania would win the presidency. Trump leads in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) by one point, Georgia (16) by 1.5 and Arizona (11) by two.

    Silver’s model now gives Trump a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 51% on Sunday, but the race remains very close to a 50–50 chance for either candidate. There’s a 27% chance Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.

    While the polls have trended to Trump recently, that doesn’t mean he will continue to gain. There are still two weeks before the election, and either candidate could win decisively if there’s late movement or poll error in their favour.

    With the seven swing states currently all within two points, the two most likely outcomes are for either Trump or Harris to sweep all seven swing states. A Trump sweep occurs 24% of the time and a Harris sweep 15% of the time.

    Silver has a list of 24 reasons why Trump could win. I think the most important reasons are the economy and the Electoral College bias. These reasons may explain Trump’s recent poll gains.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close – https://theconversation.com/lnp-lead-reduced-as-queensland-election-approaches-us-election-remains-very-close-241683

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Majority of NZ researchers see Māori Indigenous knowledge as relevant to their work – but there is a gender divide

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharina Ruckstuhl, Associate Professor in Indigenous Economy, University of Otago

    Getty Images

    While the New Zealand government plans to review 28 pieces of legislation with a view to changing or repealing references to the Treaty of Waitangi, the science sector is embracing engagement with Māori and leading the way in linking science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.

    We surveyed 316 researchers from research organisations across New Zealand on their engagement with Māori and their attitudes towards mātauranga Māori (Indigenous knowledge system). We found the majority agree engagement is important and mātauranga Māori is relevant to their research.

    Our preliminary findings show most of the surveyed researchers engaged with Māori to some degree in the past and expect to keep doing so in the future. A majority agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science.

    New Zealand is not alone in seeing Indigenous knowledge as complementary. Over the past few decades, several international projects engaged Indigenous knowledge systems to help solve pressing local and global problems. This includes traditional Aboriginal burning the reduces the risk of wildfires and sustainable water management.

    But New Zealand has been at the forefront of developing a nationwide approach through the 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy. This science-mātauranga connection has given New Zealand a global lead in how to meaningfully and practically mobilise science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.

    In contrast, the US only recently developed its national Indigenous science policy.

    Merging knowledge systems

    The merging of Indigenous and Western knowledge is particularly important in the high-tech innovation field. Here, New Zealand’s approach is starting to have real impacts, including supporting innovations and capabilities that would not have happened otherwise.

    Through years of engagement with the research and innovation sector, Māori are increasingly expecting the sector to work differently. This means both engaging beyond the laboratory and being open to the possibility that science and mātauranga Māori together can create bold innovation. Examples include supporting Māori businesses to create research and development opportunities in high-value nutrition, or using mātauranga to halt the decline of green-lipped mussels in the Eastern Bay of Plenty.

    Mātauranga Māori has been key to restoring green-lipped mussels at Ōhiwa Harbour in the Eastern Bay of Plenty.
    Getty Images

    Some media reports give the impression of a divided research community when it comes to mātauranga Māori. There have also been anecdotal reports suggesting scientists feel “pressured” to include “irrelevant” mātauranga Māori in science applications to win funding.

    We questioned whether this divide was real and as widespread as was being reported. We investigated how non-Māori researchers view engagement and collaboration, in particular the role of mātauranga Māori within that engagement.

    We examined the responses of the 295 non-Māori scientists in our survey and found 56% agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science. Only 25% disagreed. Moreover, 83% agreed scientists had a duty to consult with Māori if the research had impacts on them.

    However, there was a significant gender difference: 75% of women compared to 44% of men agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with science. Only 8% of women disagreed with that statement compared to 34% of men.

    Gender differences

    As social scientists researching New Zealand’s innovation system, these results quantified our earlier observations in two important respects.

    First, it seems that exposing researchers to engagement with Māori communities may create a more open attitude to mātauranga Māori. A key aspect of the past few years has been to broaden the science sector’s engagement with various communities, including Māori.

    The Vision Mātauranga policy has been explicit about this in the innovation sector and research and development areas. It appears likely this approach has, at least for some non-Māori researchers, created an openness to consider mātauranga Māori as an equivalent, although different, knowledge framework.

    This policy push and Māori community pull has seen scientists in this survey overwhelmingly agree that Māori should be consulted about the impacts research may have on their communities.

    Second, while we disagree with the anecdotal evidence that the science community as a whole is split when it comes to mātauranga and engagement with Māori, our results suggest there is a difference between genders. Women researchers in this survey are very positive when it comes to valuing mātauranga Māori, whereas men are relatively less so. We need to study this more deeply to find out why this might be the case.

    Shifts in how researchers work

    New Zealand’s science, research and innovation sector is in the middle of a structural transition with reviews of its priorities, policy, funding and organisational arrangements.

    While central government re-arrangements can happen relatively quickly, the interface between the laboratory, community and industry can take years to adjust. Embedding new practices is complex and not easily done.

    The 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy was initially slow, uneven and bumpy in its implementation. But our results suggest its impact has accelerated over the past few years. This includes recognising that working alongside different knowledge systems is valuable for innovation.

    Whatever New Zealand’s current restructure of the science sector prioritises, the way researchers work has changed. New Zealand is now at the forefront of global shifts when it comes to links between Indigenous knowledge and science.

    Anecdotes aside, accelerating the engagement between Māori and the science sector will be key to delivering the impact Māori and wider New Zealand expect.

    Katharina Ruckstuhl received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

    Madeline Judge received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

    Urs Daellenbach received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

    – ref. Majority of NZ researchers see Māori Indigenous knowledge as relevant to their work – but there is a gender divide – https://theconversation.com/majority-of-nz-researchers-see-maori-indigenous-knowledge-as-relevant-to-their-work-but-there-is-a-gender-divide-241239

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s points system for jobseekers is failing 4 in 10, putting their payments at risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simone Casey, Research Associate, Centre for People, Organisation and Work, RMIT University

    Studio63/Shutterstock

    For jobseekers these days, staying on benefits is about accumulating points.

    It used to be cruder. Until 2022, unemployed Australians who wanted to stay on benefits had to apply for up to 20 jobs per month, a requirement a parliamentary inquiry found

    burdens employers, who are receiving masses of poor quality applications often from people who are not suited for the position.

    Since July 2022, jobseekers have instead been required to collect points.

    Creating or updating a profile earns five points, applying for a job earns five points, attending a job interview earns 25 points, attending a jobs expo earns 25 points, starting a job earns 50 points, and so on.

    For most jobseekers the target is 100 points per month. The target can be eased by 20 points for jobseekers who live in locations that have fewer opportunities to work and by 40 points for jobseekers who are carers, have a reduced capacity to work or who are over 55.

    Jobseekers who fail to report enough points or who fail to include four job applications per month in total face automatic suspension of benefits.

    Workforce Australia.

    41% of jobseekers are being failed

    New data released by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations show 41.1% of participants are being tripped up by the system.

    In the quarter between April 1 and June 30, 410,485 of the 999,470 jobseekers enrolled in the scheme failed to meet its requirements. And 212,915 of them reported no points whatsoever.

    It’s an improvement on the previous year. For April to June 2023, 45.3% of participants failed to get enough points.

    First Nations people, refugees, people with disabilities and young people are over-represented among those who fail to get enough points.

    My calculations using the department’s data show 58% of Indigenous participants in the program, 49% of participants without a Year 12 education and 47% of participants on youth allowance are failing to meet the requirements.

    Around two-thirds of breaches lead to suspensions. Between July 2022 and September 2023 1,838,410 payments were suspended.

    My research just published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues finds that a shift away from face-to-face help to online interactions is partly responsible.

    When jobseekers find it difficult to talk to humans about why they are unable to accumulate points their payments are more likely to be suspended.

    Jobseekers’ fault or the system’s fault?

    The Department of Employment has been working hard to increase understanding of the points system. Among other things, it has produced a series of fact sheets aimed at First Nations Australians.

    But an independent evaluation of the system prepared for the department in June found two-thirds of the participants in it had little or no knowledge about how it worked.

    This suggests the 41% failure rate might be an indictment of the system as much as the jobseekers who use it.

    It might even be an indictment of the idea of points to quantify compliance with mutual obligations.

    In November last year, a Senate select committee recommended rebuilding what it called a Commonwealth Employment Services System from the ground up.

    While the committee supported the use of points, it wanted the default requirement halved to 50 points, with human case managers given discretion to vary the target up or down based on their professional judgments.

    Simone Casey is employed as a policy advisor at Economic Justice Australia, the peak organisation for community legal centres providing specialist advice to people on their social security issues and rights. The research and analysis for this article was completed in her academic capacity as recently published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues.

    – ref. Australia’s points system for jobseekers is failing 4 in 10, putting their payments at risk – https://theconversation.com/australias-points-system-for-jobseekers-is-failing-4-in-10-putting-their-payments-at-risk-240317

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Flock is a refreshing play about the complex reality of growing up in care

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eva A Sprecher, Research Fellow in Clinical, Education and Health Psychology, UCL

    Flock follows Robbie (Jamie Ankrah) and his older sister Cel (Gabriella Leonardi).
     Playing On, CC BY

    There are over 100,000 children and young people living in care in the UK, either with foster carers, in residential children’s homes or in other settings. Flock, currently playing at the Soho Theatre in London before embarking on a UK tour, follows the lives of two young people who have spent time in care, Robbie (Jamie Ankrah) and his older sister Cel (Gabriella Leonardi).

    The play was written by Lin Coughlan and directed by Jim Pope after three years of development with Raising the Roof, a project working with young people aged 16-25 who have lived in care, to develop fictional narratives informed by their own lives.

    The voices of young people who have lived in care give this play its beating heart. And they’re also vitally important for authentic representation of first-hand care-stories that are notably missing in mainstream media.

    Historically, characters who have grown up in the care system tend to be represented as villains or criminals in popular culture. Think Paul Spector in The Fall, or Loki from the Marvel universe. Exceptions can be found in many heroes in the Marvel comics created by Stan Lee, like Spider-Man or Daredevil.

    Researchers who have first-hand experience of the care system have commented on the prevalence of stigmatising narratives around “damage” and negative stereotypes associated with experience of care, alongside idealised “happy-ever-after” foundling stories.

    Important work is being done to archive the work of creators with experience of the care system and to capture a variety of care stories. However, nuanced work taking into account the complexity of going through the care system is rare and public attitudes reflect harmful misconceptions about young people living in care.

    Trailer for the touring production of Flock.

    In England, it’s estimated that at least one in three children who enter care are separated from their siblings. In Flock, Robbie is desperately waiting for his 18th birthday, when he hopes he will be able to live reunited with his sister Cel.

    While Robbie and Cel are not living together, they find ways to connect – taking trips to McDonalds or going bowling. Maintaining connections with siblings, while sometimes complex, can make a big difference to supporting the sense of belonging, mental health and wellbeing experienced by young people in care.

    Cel is one of the only people who shares Robbie’s memories of his nan and their valued moments with her before coming into care. There is evidence that sibling separation has a long-lasting impact for adults with experience of care, associated with complicated feelings of loss. However, when planning for young people’s living arrangements, sibling reunification or connection is not always prioritised.

    Young carers and their siblings

    Sibling reunification is not always easy. While Cel loves Robbie, she often feels more like his parent, and the responsibility of supporting him to manage his emotions while she is still a child weighs heavily on her. Cel might be described as a young carer, taking on daily tasks and personal care for her sibling when adults were not able to do so.

    While young carers who have spent time caring for a sibling do often express feeling more resourceful, greater responsibility and prioritising their sibling’s needs can impact their own wellbeing. Cel dreams of going to university and the freedom of leaving her responsibility as an older sister, even as she loves Robbie and wants the best for him.

    Cel is not the only person that Robbie can rely on. He also has a strong connection with his best friend Miko (Deshaye Gayle) and somewhat reluctantly meets with his personal advisor, Mrs Bosely (Jennifer Daley). As Robbie’s relationship with Cel comes under threat, these connections become especially important.

    Coming into care can cause disruption to more than sibling relationships. Children often lose touch with family, friends and communities and often move school and neighbourhood. Most young people living in care, like Robbie, have had difficult and possibly traumatic early experiences before, during and after moving into care.

    After difficult early experiences, some young people may experience changes to their brain and behaviour that allows them to survive loss, neglect or abuse. These adaptations may look like an increased alertness to danger or an unwillingness to trust others.

    While these changes may help children stay safe when living in unsafe circumstances, they might also make it harder to maintain close relationships. This negative impact of these understandable adaptations on relationships is called “social thinning”. At moments, Robbie’s mistrust is clear – when he fears that Miko is only his friend out of pity or when he finds it hard to accept any support Bosely offers him. However, we also see that the consistent, warm and understanding support of Miko and Bosely helps Robbie to stay connected in his lowest moments.

    This play represents both the very difficult experiences of young people living in care, alongside real moments of joy, strength, hope and connection. Flock provides a refreshing and much-needed story of the complex reality of the lives of young people living in care in the UK, putting real voices at its centre.

    Flock is on at the Soho Theatre, London until November 2, when it embarks on a UK tour.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Eva A Sprecher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Flock is a refreshing play about the complex reality of growing up in care – https://theconversation.com/flock-is-a-refreshing-play-about-the-complex-reality-of-growing-up-in-care-241620

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump’s messaging is becoming more extreme, a mathematician explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dorje C. Brody, Professor of Mathematics, University of Surrey

    “Talk about extreme.” That was the response of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at September’s televised debate, after her rival, Donald Trump, made the baseless claim that migrants had been eating the dogs and cats of their neighbours in Springfield, Ohio.

    Despite mounting criticism, Trump doubled down on the accusation. Likewise, during the more recent vice-presidential debate, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, falsely claimed that the migrants in Springfield are illegal.

    The arrival of hurricanes Milton and Helene then gave them more opportunities to disseminate disinformation. Trump’s team attacked the government over its response to the disaster, claiming that government money earmarked for disaster victims has been spent on migrants who crossed illegally into the US.

    “Kamala spent all her Fema [Federal Emergency Management Agency] money – billions of dollars – on housing for illegal migrants”, Trump said at a rally in Michigan. This point was also repeated by Vance in an opinion piece on October 8 in the Wall Street Journal.

    The claim is false. But does it make sense for Trump’s team to spread such extreme disinformation? Mathematical analysis suggests it can.

    The positions of the candidates on the various issues, such as migration, can be represented on the political spectrum from the left to the right. It is fair to say that Trump places himself at the right end of the spectrum, while Harris sits at the centre.

    If you are at the far end of the spectrum, left or right, then you want to move people as far in your direction as possible. So, given that these days, in the US at least, there appear to be no consequences for disseminating disinformation, you want your messages to be extreme.

    By consistently hyping up the dangers of migrants, for example, more voters will start feeling that something needs to be done, even if they have never encountered an issue themselves.

    Indeed, mathematical models show that the probability of a candidate positioned at the end of the spectrum winning an election can, at least theoretically, reach 100%, if the messages are nothing but extreme. The same does not apply to a candidate positioned in the middle.

    We have seen this effect manifesting itself in the recent elections in Germany and France. Unless the public already has a strong appetite for the centre ground, which was the case for July’s general election in the UK, positions at the centre are often precarious.

    The path to victory for Harris therefore remains steep. But there are means for an effective counteroffensive.

    Clear communication

    Political messages have two purposes: communicating where the candidate stands on the various issues, and making the voters feel that those positions are desirable. We can apply the mathematics of communication, which explains our cognitive response to digesting information, to infer the impact of political messages.

    In particular, we can study how different messages on a given issue combine and interact. This, of course, only concerns voters who consume a variety of information sources, as opposed to those confined to an information echo chamber.

    For those who consume both Democratic and Republican messages, the effect of combining them can be subtle. But, in many cases, they combine in an additive way with some weights on each message.

    You can think of it as a weighted average of the two information sources. For example, if Harris says one thing and Trump says something opposite on a particular issue, then the net effect is each message muting the other slightly.

    So, if Trump says the illegal Haitian migrants in Springfield are eating people’s pets, and Harris says the migrants are there legally and are not eating anyone’s pets, then people might come to the conclusion that, while there may be illegal Haitian migrants in Springfield, they may not be eating pets.

    However, in some cases, one of the weights can take a negative value. This means that rather than adding them, the receiver of the two messages will subtract them. When this happens, the effect of that message is unexpectedly reversed.

    For example, when clear and convincing evidence of the legal status of the migrants in Springfield is presented, the prevailing noise about their pet-eating habits will, in anything, strengthen people’s belief that the claim is false.

    This can happen when the message from Harris is sufficiently loud and clear. Importantly, this does not mean Harris should loudly deny the disinformation. Provided that Harris sticks to her own messages in a clear and transparent manner, the mathematics of communication predicts that disinformation can turn itself against its spreader, for the following reasons.

    The idea, roughly speaking, goes as follows. Suppose that a recipient of the messages is unaware of the prevalence of disinformation, and that there is a considerable gap between the unsubstantiated disinformation and reliable information, with the latter being communicated very clearly.

    In this situation, communication theory shows that the receiver will dismiss disinformation more strongly than someone who is aware of the prevalence of disinformation.

    It is reminiscent of the Japanese martial art judo where the ultimate aim is to use your opponent’s momentum, rather than your own force.

    Disinformation should be challenged. And, indeed, both Harris and her predecessor Joe Biden have come out to condemn Trump’s “onslaught of lies” in relation to the two hurricanes.

    But merely focusing on challenging disinformation is counterproductive. What is more important is for their own message to be communicated loud and clear.

    No crystal ball can tell us whether the Democrats will retain the White House in November. But simply repeating the point that Trump is a threat to democracy, as Biden was prone to do, will not cut it.

    Dorje C. Brody has received funding from UKRI.

    – ref. Why Trump’s messaging is becoming more extreme, a mathematician explains – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-messaging-is-becoming-more-extreme-a-mathematician-explains-239421

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Sally McManus on what unions want from Labor and Innes Willox on business wish list for Dutton

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Industrial relations will be hotly contested at next year’s election.

    Labor has introduced a raft of new worker protections and pushed for wage increases for lower paid workers.
    Business groups have argued against further red tape and claimed the government’s new regulations have contributed to rising costs.

    The union movement, meanwhile, has been mired in the fallout from the CFMEU controversy, with some union leaders angry over the government and ACTU’s tough treatment of that union after revelations of its infiltration by criminals.

    To talk about these issues and more, we’re joined by ACTU secretary Sally McManus and Innes Willox, the head of the Australian Industry Group, one of the peak employer groups.

    On how to fix the construction industry, Willox advocates an oversight body but not the reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission,

    We believe that the construction sector does require its own oversight. We had the ABCC previously. We’re not saying go back to that. You don’t have to replicate that model entirely. But the sector has shown that it does require an oversight body that has the ability to launch both civil and criminal claims for poor behaviour. You’re not going to clean it up through sort of task forces and the like, which actually don’t do anything on the ground to change and moderate behaviour.

    What other changes to industrial relations would employers want from a Coalition government?

    I think what we can expect or hope that the Coalition will look long and hard at things like the right to disconnect. Which came from nowhere. It came out of left field right at the end of a process. It’s created huge uncertainty in workplaces. It’s a bit of a minefield both for employers and employees.

    The definition of’casual’ is now a 17-page manual that employers have to work through, rather than a straightforward definition. We’d hope that the Coalition would look at that. And, of course, union right-of-entry powers which have now tilted the balance totally in favour of unions. They’re the sort of things we think that they should look at as a priority and examine what they can do to take off the rough edges that have been put in place there.

    On the unions’ wish list from Labor, McManus says they are talking with the government about further action on the issue of equality.

    At the moment, the gender pay gap is at the lowest ever recorded. So that’s a good thing. But in terms of equality in the workplace, that issue is still a big one, and there is a big push that we are making for reproductive leave. This isn’t just for women, it’s also for men.

    So many women suffer from things like painful periods. Of course, there’s a whole issue of menopause.

    For men, there’s a whole lot of issues to do with reproductive issues as well. […] So this is something that we are talking to the government about and campaigning around.

    Another issue is that of youth wages:

    It’s really totally outrageous that 19, 20-year-olds are paid discount wages in Australia. It’s not acceptable in 2024-2025 and should be fixed. The union movement’s taking it up at the moment and have got rid of it in a lot of industries, and we want to finish the job. So we’re going to try and achieve that through campaigning and through the industrial commission. But if we don’t, if there’s no way of fixing it that way, there’ll be no option then other than to say to the government, listen, ball’s in your court now.

    On the split in the union movement over the government and ACTU actions against the construction division of the CFMEU, McManus says the ACTU will continue to keep its door open,

    Look, no one likes what’s happened. No one likes the fact that, obviously, that union was infiltrated by organised crime, outlaw motorcycle gangs. And no one supports corruption. The other construction union who works with the CFMEU all the time, which is the ETU, the Electrical Trades Union – they’re the ones who have disaffiliated from the ACTU.

    They’re mates, they’re all mates, right? And so, obviously, they’re also not happy with what’s happened. And obviously we will always keep the door open and encourage unity. The ACTU is a place where truck drivers and community workers and teachers and nurses and road workers, everyone of every profession, gets together and talks. It’s always a good thing because you’re listening to other people and you’re stronger together.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Sally McManus on what unions want from Labor and Innes Willox on business wish list for Dutton – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-sally-mcmanus-on-what-unions-want-from-labor-and-innes-willox-on-business-wish-list-for-dutton-242019

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Liam Payne: the death of a favourite celebrity can be painful – but collective grief can help

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Carr, Reader in Education with Psychology and Centre for Death and Society, University of Bath

    One of my (Sam’s) earliest memories is from 1980, when John Lennon was tragically assassinated. I vividly recall my mother’s reaction upon hearing the news – she put down the phone, overwhelmed with grief.

    Her connection to Lennon, someone she’d never met, was deeply personal. This moment, even though I was only three years old, left a lasting impression and showed me how profound these attachments can be. For my mother, Lennon wasn’t just a famous figure. He represented a significant part of her life and emotions.

    If you’re a One Direction fan, you may be feeling a similar kind of grief over the tragic death of band member Liam Payne. Some fans have described Payne’s loss as akin to “losing a family member” or feeling like they’ve “lost a big part of their childhood”.

    This collective mourning illustrates how deeply ingrained celebrities can become in our lives, not just as entertainers, but as symbols of our personal experiences and memories.

    Olivia, 23, tried to describe her sense of loss to a BBC reporter:

    It was my first feeling of being in love, my first feeling of crushing on a boy, of being excited about boys. I kissed the posters every night. We all did. It felt like you were part of the best club in the world and it’s a huge part of why we bonded together.

    This form of attachment is known as a parasocial relationship, an emotional connection formed with someone who is unaware of the bond. Unlike personal relationships, where both parties contribute to the connection, parasocial relationships allow fans to project idealised traits onto celebrities, unchallenged by reality.

    In this way, celebrities often represent aspirational versions of ourselves or embody significant aspects of our identity. When they die, the emotional experience of grief is not just about the person, but about losing part of that imagined connection.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    The death of a beloved celebrity shatters something that feels deeply meaningful, and can leave you grappling with an emotional void. The loss is not just of a public figure, but of a personal connection that may have shaped your identity and sense of belonging.

    This profound sense of grief is often also shared. Following Payne’s sudden death, fans have gathered worldwide, from the UK to the Philippines and Argentina, to sing and mourn at vigils for the star. A similar phenomenon was also observed in September, when Harry Potter fans raised wands at the Wizarding World of Harry Potter theme park in Orlando. They were paying tribute to Maggie Smith, who played the popular character Professor McGonagall in the Harry Potter films, following her death aged 89.

    Collective grief is a common reaction when an influential figure dies. These shared acts of mourning are not only socially significant but also have the power to foster empathy, transforming collective pain and public emotion into meaningful memories of social solidarity and communal strength.

    While fans will mourn their star regardless of age, there’s a stark contrast between the deaths of Smith and Payne. Smith’s passing is generally viewed as a “good” death, marking the end of “a true legend”, while Payne’s death at 31 is seen as “a bad, sad ending”. The way that we grieve celebrities is often connected to their age. When Black Panther star Chadwick Boseman died in 2020 aged 43, it shattered many fans’ sense of hope for the future.

    For many Payne fans, the singer was their “first love”. Falling in love with celebrities, as psychoanalysts like Aldo Carotenuto have argued, elicits a projection of idealised fantasy that becomes interwoven with our vision of the future. This temporal aspect of fandom is rooted in our sense of narrative identity, through which we view life as a continuing book. The death of a young star can powerfully disrupt this plot and leave you grappling with an unresolved chapter in your own story.

    One Direction fans often call themselves “directioners”. Losing a core member of the group has led some directioners to feel this identity is now threatened or altered. The disruption to your sense of identity following the death of a young celebrity that you grew up alongside can be profound. It signifies not only the loss of a cherished part of your past but also serves as a painful reminder of the passage of time and the fragility of life.

    This reality can force you to confront your own mortality, highlighting the finite nature of existence. In times of collective mourning, people reflect on their own lives and aspirations while cherishing the memories and legacies of those they admired.

    Moving forward without them

    Despite the deep pain of grieving, fans often engage in what grief experts call “continuing bonds” – an effort to maintain a connection with the celebrity through memories, tributes or ongoing engagement with their work.

    This bond helps to reestablish a sense of order, providing emotional continuity even in the face of loss. The bonds we form with celebrities are often more meaningful than they first appear. Sociologist Jackie Stacey has examined how memories tied to celebrities can profoundly shape and sustain a sense of meaning throughout our lives.

    From a life course perspective, early experiences with a favourite star can become deeply embedded in your identity, acting as enduring sources of comfort, inspiration and self-expression.

    Though his life has been cut short, the memories and inspiration Payne provided will continue to live on among his fans. As directioners gathered outside the Buenos Aires hotel where he passed away, they sang One Direction songs, including the poignant line: “This is not the end.”

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Liam Payne: the death of a favourite celebrity can be painful – but collective grief can help – https://theconversation.com/liam-payne-the-death-of-a-favourite-celebrity-can-be-painful-but-collective-grief-can-help-242039

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How different people around the world understand democracy – and why it matters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Williamson, Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford

    Most people in most countries say they want to be governed democratically. Because democracy’s appeal is so powerful, governments and political leaders everywhere claim to be supporters of democracy.

    Take China, for instance. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled for decades under a single-party system, a system that contrasts sharply with traditional definitions of democracy. Democratic systems emphasise competitive elections for key leaders, strong protections for political rights and constraints on executive power.

    Yet, ask members of the CCP and they will probably tell you that their governance is democratic because it responds to the preferences of the Chinese public. In their view, what makes a democracy is not elections, liberties and constraints. Rather, strong and unencumbered political leaders can govern well and give the people what they want.

    How do people understand democracy? If people around the world hold dramatically different views of what democracy means – or even adhere to understandings of democracy that reflect a more authoritarian style of government – then democracy’s apparent global appeal may not mean very much in practice.

    Researchers have long been interested in how people from different countries and backgrounds understand democracy. But it’s a complex issue and previous studies have found it difficult to determine what people really mean when they say they want to be governed democratically. In a new article published in Science, we use an experiment administered via surveys in Egypt, India, Italy, Japan, Thailand and the US to bring fresh evidence to this debate.

    We presented survey respondents with paired profiles of hypothetical countries. These profiles randomised nine factors reflecting different theories of how people understand democracy. For instance, we presented respondents with information about the countries’ elections, varying whether they were free and fair, biased, or not held at all.

    We also randomised whether political rights were protected or repressed, and whether the executive respected the powers of the legislature and courts or not. These three attributes reflect traditional concepts of democracy.

    We also included attributes of the hypothetical countries that reflect alternative understandings of democracy. Some claim that democracy means a political system capable of producing substantial changes that benefit citizens broadly. So we varied whether economic equality in the country is higher or lower. We also adjusted whether social equality between genders is better or worse. And we randomised how much influence technocratic experts wield over policy decisions.

    Others argue for a more authoritarian model of democracy in which unconstrained leaders give the people what they want in exchange for their obedience. To reflect this view, we gave information about how often the countries’ political leaders follow the majority’s preferences. We also varied whether people obey the government or not.

    After reviewing the country profiles, respondents were asked to determine which hypothetical country was more democratic. Analysing which attributes influenced respondents’ choices more strongly gives us insights into how they understand what democracy means.

    Reasons to be cheerful

    Our results indicate that the traditional definition of democracy is widely accepted. Across the six diverse countries in our sample, respondents were much more likely to perceive countries as democratic when elections were free and fair and political rights were strongly protected.

    This prioritisation of elections held across the board. People felt that way regardless of their individual characteristics such as gender, educational attainment, political ideology, age, minority status and attitudes toward geopolitics.

    This finding implies some reasons to be optimistic about support for democracy. It suggests that when people say they want democratic governance, many mean competitive elections and protected liberties. This agreement is important. It makes it more likely that enough people will recognise – and potentially push back – against attempts by anti-democratic political leaders to subvert democratic governance.

    Reasons for caution

    But our findings also highlight points of caution. First, institutional checks and balances were less central to how our respondents understood democracy. This suggests that political leaders may be able to increase their grip on power more easily by undermining the influence of the legislature and courts.

    And anti-democratic politicians can still claim to be democratic by deceptively arguing that they prioritise these elements of the political system, while actually undermining them. A prominent example is former US president Donald Trump. In 2020, Trump tried to overturn his election loss by falsely asserting it had been rigged against him.

    Even in outright authoritarian countries, rulers often use controlled elections as “evidence” of their democratic character. In Egypt, for instance, the autocratic president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi declared after winning his rigged 2023 election that he would continue to build “a democratic state that protects its citizens”.

    Many people may see through such claims, but autocrats can sometimes build support by using elections to present themselves as democrats – even when they are not free and fair.

    While many people reject outright authoritarian notions of what democracy means, factors other than elections and liberties also influence their understanding of democratic governance. In our study, countries were often believed to be more democratic when they delivered good outcomes – for example, by providing higher gender or economic equality.

    Gender equality was the only attribute in the experiment which came close to elections and liberties in its ability to shape perceptions of which countries were more democratic. Because gender equality is inherently desirable and is associated with democracy, some autocrats have successfully engaged in “genderwashing”. They’ve done this by (often nominally) reforming women’s rights to reduce pressure for more competitive elections and protected political rights.

    Finally, just because people generally agree on what democracy means does not necessarily mean they will continue to support it. If democracies fail to perform effectively or represent their citizens well, people may be persuaded to accept more authoritarian models of governance.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How different people around the world understand democracy – and why it matters – https://theconversation.com/how-different-people-around-the-world-understand-democracy-and-why-it-matters-241617

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How advertising jingles influence our buying choices (and why we can still sing them decades later)

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kelly Jakubowski, Associate Professor in Music Psychology, Durham University

    Matthew Nichols1/Shutterstock

    Even if we haven’t heard them for many years, familiar songs often stick with us for life. We can often recall every lyric to songs we learned as kids or albums we idolised as teenagers. But beyond music we’ve purposely chosen to listen to or learn, one type of music seems to stick with us without any effort: the jingle.

    Jingles have a long history in the advertising industry. The first known radio jingle in the UK – Have You Tried Wheaties? – was launched in 1926. Jingles have since become a major feature of our everyday lives.

    Recent market research found that several of the ten most recognisable jingles for UK adults dated back three or even four decades. While comparison site Go Compare topped the list, Mars’ “work, rest and play” jingle (axed in the mid-1990s) and even Shake ‘n’ Vac “put the freshness back” (1980) are still buzzing about in the heads of those polled.

    So why do these songs stick with us? And what effect does this have on what we buy?

    Jingles become memorable in different ways. Some advertisers use familiar songs, which are inherently easier to remember, in a new context. For instance, the Go Compare jingle uses the traditional song Over There and couples it with the comic visual element of an over-the-top opera singer. The “Just one Cornetto” campaign (launched in 1981) similarly takes a classical melody (O sole mio) and tweaks it to sell ice cream.

    Other jingles make use of musical elements that make them likely to become “earworms” – those tunes that get stuck in our heads whether we like them or not. In research examining a large collection of pop music, my team found that songs that were likely to become earworms had upbeat tempos, often in the range that would make a person want to dance along. Many jingles, such as “Do the Shake ‘n’ Vac” and “I feel like Chicken Tonight” fit this pattern.

    Indeed, other research has shown that when people either move or sing along to catchy songs, they are more likely to subsequently experience these songs as earworms. It has also been found that having an earworm for a song you have recently learned means you will remember that song better later on.

    Lyrics can also play an important role in the memorability of a song or product. The alliterative lyrics of “Maybe it’s Maybelline” ensure that even a consumer who has never heard of this brand will easily recall its name the next time they are in the shop.

    Links to other times in our life

    It’s not just features of the music that give jingles such a stronghold in our memories. Music tends to be closely associated with the contexts in which we’ve heard it. That is, it often becomes closely entwined with autobiographical memories from our lives.

    Hearing a jingle from our childhood can therefore bring back memories not just of hearing that song, but the living room we grew up in, and the feeling of sitting around the TV with family watching together. Jingles therefore can be a strong trigger of nostalgia.

    Research has shown that the period when we are around ten to 25 years old tends to be remembered most vividly. Music cues are also best at tapping into memories of this period, which is known as the “reminiscence bump”.

    In line with this, the same consumer research also revealed different recognition rates for jingles across age groups. For instance, for millennials, McDonalds’ “I’m lovin’ it” ranked number two in the top-recognised jingles list and “Maybe it’s Maybelline” came in at number five.

    More than 40 years on, plenty of Brits will still be able to sing along.

    Some brands also explicitly aim to merge this nostalgic element with staying on trend. Maybelline has recently reinvented its jingle, incorporating dance music elements to appeal to gen Z audiences while retaining features of the classic 1990s jingle that connects millennials to their youth.

    So does writing a memorable jingle help to sell a product? In short, yes. Research that examined choices of two products from the same category (for example, cameras) showed that products coupled with a familiar tune were more likely to be chosen than those coupled with an unfamiliar tune.

    However, liking the music also independently affected product choice. In particular, music that participants really disliked tended to put them off choosing a product even if the tune was familiar. This suggests that advertisers do need to carefully consider the musical preferences of their target market over and above simply writing catchy tunes.

    Music has a strong hold on our memories. The same features that help us to learn the alphabet through music or transport us back to the first dance at our wedding also mean we are able to effortlessly recall which cleaning product promises that washing machines live longer.

    Kelly Jakubowski consults for Maybelline (L’Oréal Groupe). She receives research funding from The Leverhulme Trust and AHRC.

    – ref. How advertising jingles influence our buying choices (and why we can still sing them decades later) – https://theconversation.com/how-advertising-jingles-influence-our-buying-choices-and-why-we-can-still-sing-them-decades-later-241162

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Quality of life continues to slide in South Africa’s key economic province, Gauteng – new survey

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Christian Hamann, Researcher, Gauteng City-Region Observatory

    The Gauteng City-Region, which has long been South Africa’s economic engine, is in decline. The region contributes about 35% of the country’s total economic output, and is home to more than 15 million people, about 25% of the country’s population of 62 million people.

    Many in the province have come from far and wide hoping to “make it” in the land of opportunity. Yet both the media and the public raise critical questions about its future amid decaying infrastructure, poor delivery of basic government services, and a steady uptick in violent crime.

    New research from the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) reveals that development outcomes in the province are declining. The GCRO is an independent institute that produces research and analysis to inform decision making and policy in the Gauteng City-Region. It is a partnership between the Gauteng provincial government, the University of the Witwatersrand, the University of Johannesburg, and organised local government (Salga-Gauteng).

    The GCRO constructs a multidimensional index of wellbeing that combines 33 variables into one measure, known as the Quality of Life Index, from survey data that has been collected every two to three years since 2009.

    This includes measures of health, safety, life satisfaction, socio-economic status, public services, satisfaction with government, and social and political participation. The latest index (2023/24) shows that quality of life in Gauteng has fallen to its lowest level ever since the survey began in 2009. This suggests that the wellbeing of many households has been compromised by the complex and interconnected global challenges, known as the polycrisis, that have emerged since the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Many of these challenges are linked to the local governance crisis, characterised by unstable political party coalitions. The interaction of complex crises amplifies harmful effects, profoundly affecting quality of life.

    A governance crisis emerged in South Africa in the wake of state capture, marked by a stark decline in the provision of quality public services. So, the government has struggled to shield citizens from the worst impacts of the polycrisis. Households face an acute convergence of global and local crises, reflected in health, economic instability, societal unrest, climate challenges, and rising safety concerns.

    The research

    The 7th Quality of Life Survey involved 13,795 adult residents of Gauteng. Respondents were randomly sampled in every ward of the province. Data was collected by a team of fieldworkers from 28 August 2023 to 16 April 2024. The data is made freely available, and is used by government, academics and civil society. The findings inform policy and strategic planning by government entities across the Gauteng City-Region.

    The latest survey results paint a complex picture about the quality of life in Gauteng. Some of the most significant findings which relate to the challenges that household face, and the ways people respond to challenges, are highlighted below. The list of crises includes concerns about public service delivery, satisfaction with government, safety, poverty, and overall quality of life.

    Unreliable service delivery

    Basic services in Gauteng are characterised by interruptions to supply, inadequate coverage and quality problems. While most residents have access to water, electricity, sanitation and refuse removal, satisfaction with these levels has declined substantially since the previous survey in 2020/21.

    The latest survey shows that only 61% of respondents were satisfied with their sanitation, only 60% perceived their water as always clean, and only 64% were satisfied with their refuse removal. These are all lower than in the past when satisfaction ranged between 70% and 75%. The impact, for example, is that those who do not have weekly refuse removal are more likely to dump their rubbish in public spaces or burn it – causing various environmental challenges.

    Gauteng households use various resources at their disposal to deal with the impacts of unreliable services. For instance, one in seven households (15%) are now generating some or all their own electricity, compared to 4% in 2017/18. This is partly related to the unreliability of electricity provision, and growing efforts to gain independence from the “grid”. But the unreliability and cost of electricity have varied impacts, depending on household income.

    Declining satisfaction with government

    Only a fifth (21%) of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the national government. A similar proportion (22%) of respondents were satisfied with the performance of provincial and local governments. Satisfaction for all these spheres has declined by between 15 and 20 percentage points since 2017/18.

    The effect of dissatisfaction with government is increasing disengagement. Just over half of respondents (54%) felt that politics was a waste of time, and 57% said that South Africa was a failed state. When the survey was conducted, before the 2024 provincial elections, 21% of respondents said they were not planning to vote. Thus, government dissatisfaction and disengagement helps to understand the low voter turnout during the elections.

    Poverty

    While poverty rates measured in 2023/24 have improved from their peak during the pandemic, the recovery is partial. Sixteen percent of respondents lived below the food poverty line of R760 per month (about US$43). This remains higher than pre-pandemic levels (it was 12% in 2017/18). It shows that a large portion of Gauteng’s households have struggled to meet their basic needs for a long time.

    South Africa’s welfare systems remain a lifeline for many households. The proportion of respondents that benefited from any kind of social grant (including child support and old age pensions has increased steadily from 30% in 2011 to just over 50% in 2023/24.

    Low-income households are also less likely to recover from shocks because they lack financial safety nets, and cannot afford to replace public services with costly private alternatives.

    Safety concerns

    Another kind of problem experienced by respondents is insecurity as a result of crime and violence. A fifth of respondents (21%) said that they had been the victim of crime in the last year. This was a two percentage point increase from 2020/21, when lockdowns reduced crime levels. The proportion of respondents who said that the crime situation had worsened was also higher (increasing from 43% in 2020/21 to 48% in 2023/24).

    Much larger proportions of respondents felt unsafe in their homes, and when walking in their neighbourhood in the daytime or at night. For example, in 2023/24, 81% of respondents felt unsafe walking in their area at night, compared to 75% in 2020/21. The effect is that 62% of respondents in 2023/24 were dissatisfied with the security services provided by the government, compared to 54% in 2020/21.

    Overall quality of life is lower

    Overall, in the latest index quality of life reached its lowest point yet since the index was first calculated. The 2023/24 value was calculated at 59.5 out of 100, compared to 61.4 in 2020/21 and a high of 63.9 in 2017/18.

    Most of the dimensions declined, suggesting that the wellbeing of many households has been adversely affected by the interplay between the governance crisis and the polycrisis. Households’ ability to navigate these challenges is strongly shaped by inequality, which remains very high.

    The 2023/24 quality of life report shows that the Gauteng City-Region grapples with a series of wicked problems. Public and private sector leaders, along with civil society, need to assess the current situation and collaborate on innovative solutions to enhance the quality of life of all residents in the City-Region.

    Shannon Arnold, a junior researcher at the Gauteng City-Region Observatory, contributed to the research and this article.

    Christian Hamann is employed by the Gauteng CIty-Region Observatory which receives funding from the Gauteng Provincial Government.

    Rashid Seedat is employed by the Gauteng CIty-Region Observatory which receives funding from the Gauteng Provincial Government. He is also a Board member of the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation.

    – ref. Quality of life continues to slide in South Africa’s key economic province, Gauteng – new survey – https://theconversation.com/quality-of-life-continues-to-slide-in-south-africas-key-economic-province-gauteng-new-survey-241714

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As more Americans go ‘no contact’ with their parents, they live out a dilemma at the heart of Shakespeare’s ‘King Lear’

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeanette Tran, Associate Professor of English, Drake University

    Losing a connection to your family, intentionally or not, is tragic. catscandotcom/E+ via Getty Images

    Is blood thicker than water? Should family always come first?

    These clichés about the importance of family abound, despite the recognition that familial relations are oftentimes hard, if not downright dysfunctional.

    But over the past few years, a discussion has emerged about a somewhat taboo move: cutting ties altogether with family members deemed “toxic.”

    Called going “no contact,” this form of estrangement usually involves adult children cutting ties with their parents. It might happen after years of abuse or when a parent disapproves of a child who has come out as LGBTQ+. Or it might be spurred by political or religious differences. Even Vice President Kamala Harris has been mostly estranged from her father since her parents’ divorce.

    The “no contact” movement has its proponents and detractors.

    Those in favor say people should disentangle from unhealthy relationships without shame, and that family should be held to the same standards as friends and romantic partners.

    Those against say the bar for what constitutes familial trauma has become too low, and that some kids who cut off all contact are being selfish.

    At the heart of the debate over the ethics of estrangement is a cultural attachment to the idea of family. The field of family estrangement is still in its early stages, but discussions of the collapsed parent-child relationship – its sources, its ethics, its consequences – can be found in literature across history. As I’ve encountered more articles, forums and social media posts devoted to family estrangement, I can’t help but see connections to Shakespeare’s “King Lear,” which I teach to my students as a tragedy about dysfunctional families.

    The tragedy features characters who are cast out by their families, and while the work is over 400 years old, it offers uncanny insight into the logic of modern family estrangement.

    Early modern family

    In Shakespeare’s time – the English early modern era, which spanned from the beginning of the 16th century to the start of the 18th century – Protestantism reinforced the idea that people had special obligations to their kin.

    As the English Puritan preacher John Foxe wrote in “The Book of Martyrs,” “Among all the affections of nature, there is none that is so deeply graved in a father’s mind, as the love and tender affection towards his children.”

    In Foxe’s teaching, children were blessings from God who required nurturing, spiritual guidance and material support from their parents. Children, in turn, were obliged to honor and obey their parents who cared for them.

    While this sounds simple enough, the early modern family was no less prone to dysfunction than the modern family.

    Just like today, parent-child relationships were dynamic and evolved across the life span of the parents. As historian Ilana Krausman Ben-Amos argues, the family bond was not sustained by adhering to God’s commands, but through giving and reciprocation that was asymmetrical.

    Parents could invest a lot into their children and get very little in return, and vice versa. Due to shorter life expectancy, many parents did not live to see their children come of age, and if they did, children rarely earned enough to pay their parents back for the cost of raising them. Thus, children might reciprocate in less material forms, such as through offering affection.

    When a parent died, the children might receive some form of inheritance, but this was largely determined by class status, gender and the order of birth.

    Shakespeare’s characters go ‘no contact’

    “King Lear” features two storylines. Each relates to the disintegration of the family.

    In ‘King Lear,’ Edgar cuts his family off after his father, Gloucester, disavows him.
    Heritage Images/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

    The first plot involves Gloucester and his two sons, Edgar and Edmund. Edmund is a bastard, which means when Gloucester dies, his legitimate brother, Edgar, will inherit everything. To get his revenge, Edmund forges a letter in which Edgar reveals plans to murder Gloucester to expedite his inheritance. Once Gloucester sees the letter, he writes Edgar off as a villain. Feeling betrayed, Edgar assumes a new identity as a beggar and goes no-contact with his family.

    In the second plot, King Lear attempts to divide his kingdom among his daughters. Because it is impossible to equally divvy up cities, towns and villages, he invents a contest: Each daughter will give a speech articulating their love for their father. He’ll award the best parts of the kingdom to the daughter who does the finest job stroking his ego.

    Lear expects Cordelia, his favorite, to outshine her sisters. But she refuses to play along and instead calls him out for his vanity. Feeling disrespected, Lear disinherits Cordelia. With no money, she’s forced to marry the first man who will take her and moves to France.

    In these family dramas, the parents are unfair, even vindictive, toward their children. But the conflict is still compelling and relatable to readers today because so many families are characterized by inequality.

    The favorite child, the preferred parent and the inheritance dispute are as timeless to families as birthday parties and funerals.

    Right and wrong get muddied

    Deception inspires Gloucester’s disavowal and disinheritance of Edgar. And, yes, Edmund’s scheme to destroy Edgar and Gloucester’s relationship is diabolical. But at the same time, Gloucester’s decision to throw away his decades-long relationship with his son over a letter – phony or not – seems rash.

    Was Edgar right to flee from his father? Or could something have been done to save the relationship?

    Cordelia is correct that Lear is vain for expecting his daughters to compete for their inheritance. At the same time, complimenting her father seems like a small price to pay for an entire kingdom.

    Is Cordelia acting like a spoiled brat by refusing to honor and obey her father? Or is she doing him a favor by calling out his unbecoming behavior?

    Shakespeare doesn’t offer us any clear answers to these questions; he just asks readers to wade in the complexity of them and experience the unique grief that comes from watching a family fall apart over something that maybe could have been avoided.

    No envy for the estranged

    No one gets a happy ending in “King Lear” – not the children who reject their parents, and most certainly not the parents, who need their children to protect them and care for them in old age.

    Edmund’s grief over his bastard status begets the grief he brings to Gloucester and Edgar. For failing to see the truth of Edgar’s innocence, Gloucester is physically blinded by one of Edmund’s unwitting co-conspirators, a punishment he accepts. When Edgar reunites with Gloucester, his eyes fill with tears as he witnesses his father’s physical suffering. Before Gloucester dies, Edgar asks his father for a blessing.

    Even though Lear cut off contact with Cordelia, she still returns to England once she learns her sisters have thrown Lear out onto the streets with nothing but the clothes on his back. The sisters come off as villains, but one could also see their abandoning Lear as karmic retribution. When Lear reunites with Cordelia, he begs for her forgiveness, suggesting he recognizes his failures, and she begs for his, recognizing her enduring love for him despite his faults.

    Cordelia comforts her father, King Lear, after he’s been betrayed by his other daughters.
    Universal History Archive/Getty Images

    Then and now, family estrangement often leads to loneliness, along with social stigma.

    Parents can be ashamed to say their children no longer speak to them. People who are estranged from their parents speak of the impulse to share milestones with family, but fear eroding the boundaries they’ve worked so hard to maintain.

    Just like in “King Lear,” not having a family also means being economically vulnerable: It remains difficult to get a loan or lease as a young adult without a co-signer.

    The advantages of belonging to a family are so obvious that losing that affiliation, intentionally or not, is tragic. “King Lear” ends with almost all the characters dying, but because this is a play – a fiction, a fantasy – they get to ask for and receive forgiveness before the curtain closes.

    Real life doesn’t usually work like that, nor should it be expected to. If “King Lear” and Kamala Harris’ estrangement from her father make anything clear, it is that no amount of money, power or threat of bad publicity can fully protect a family from dysfunction and disintegration.

    Jeanette Tran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As more Americans go ‘no contact’ with their parents, they live out a dilemma at the heart of Shakespeare’s ‘King Lear’ – https://theconversation.com/as-more-americans-go-no-contact-with-their-parents-they-live-out-a-dilemma-at-the-heart-of-shakespeares-king-lear-239916

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: This Atlanta neighborhood hired a case manager to address rising homelessness − and it’s improving health and safety for everyone

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ishita Chordia, Ph.D. Candidate in Information Science, University of Washington

    Mural by artist Chris Wright on Metropolitan Avenue in East Atlanta. Art Rudick/Atlanta Street Art Map, CC BY-ND

    Homelessness has surged across the United States in recent years, rising 19% from 2016 though 2023. The main cause is a severe shortage of affordable housing. Rising homelessness has renewed debates about use of public space and how encampments affect public safety.

    The U.S. Supreme Court recently weighed in on these debates with its 2024 decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson. The court’s ruling grants cities the authority to prohibit individuals from sleeping and camping in public spaces, effectively condoning the use of fines and bans to address rising rates of homelessness.

    East Atlanta Village, a historically Black neighborhood in Atlanta with about 3,000 residents, is trying something different. In the fall of 2023, with support from the Atlanta City Council, the mayor’s office and Intown Cares, a local nonprofit that works to alleviate homelessness and hunger, the neighborhood hired a full-time social worker to support people experiencing homelessness.

    Michael Nolan, an Intown Cares social worker, is trained in an approach that emphasizes individual autonomy and dignity, recognizes that being homeless is a traumatic experience, and prioritizes access to housing. His role includes helping individuals get the documentation they need to move off the streets, such as copies of their birth certificates and Social Security cards. He also has a dedicated phone line that community members can use to alert him about dangerous situations that involve homeless people.

    Michael Nolan, East Atlanta Village’s social worker, spends 40-plus hours weekly providing supplies, services and other help to people experiencing homelessness.

    I am a researcher at the University of Washington studying programs and technologies that help urban neighborhoods flourish. I’m also a resident of East Atlanta Village and have helped the neighborhood organize and evaluate this experiment.

    For the past year, my colleagues and I have collected data about the neighborhood social work program to understand how well it can support both people without housing and the broader community. Our preliminary findings suggest that neighborhood social work is a promising way to address challenges common in many neighborhoods with homelessness.

    I believe this approach has the potential to provide long-term solutions to homelessness and improve the health and safety for the entire neighborhood. I also see it as a sharp contrast with the punitive approach condoned by the Supreme Court.

    Resolving conflicts over public space

    One of the people I interviewed while evaluating this initiative was Rebecca, a resident of East Atlanta Village who walks her dog in the local park every day. In the fall of 2023, she noticed that a man had moved into the park and set up a tent. At first, the area was clean, but within a few weeks there was garbage around the tent and throughout the park.

    Rebecca felt that the trash was ruining one of the few green spaces in the neighborhood. She decided to contact Nolan. Nolan told her that he knew the unhoused man, was working with him to secure permanent housing and in the meantime would help him move his tent to a less-frequented space.

    Such negotiations around public spaces are common challenges for neighborhoods with large homeless populations, especially in dense urban areas. Other examples in our data included conflicts when a homeless person began sleeping in his car outside another resident’s home, and when a homeless man wandered into a homeowner’s yard.

    The standard approach in these situations is to fine, ban or imprison the unhoused individual. But those strategies are expensive, can prolong homelessness and do little to actually resolve the issues.

    In contrast, hiring a social worker has enabled East Atlanta Village to resolve conflicts gently, through conversation and negotiation. The solutions address concerns about public health and safety and also offer people without homes an opportunity for long-term change.

    Meeting basic needs

    Over the past year, this program has helped 13 people move into housing. Nolan has facilitated over 180 medical and mental health care visits for people living on the street.

    Eighty-six people have been connected to Medicaid, food assistance or Social Security benefits. Thirty-five people have health care for the first time, and six people have started receiving medication for their addictions.

    Research shows that addressing people’s basic needs by helping them obtain food, medicine, housing and other necessities not only supports those individuals but also produces cascading benefits for the entire community. They include reduced inequality, better health outcomes and lower crime rates.

    Managing mental and behavioral health

    Studies have found that about two-thirds of unhoused individuals struggle with mental health challenges. Unmet mental and behavioral health needs can contribute to unsafe and illegal behavior.

    The United States does not have a comprehensive system in place for supporting people who are living on the street and struggling with chronic mental and behavioral health challenges. While much more infrastructure is needed, in East Atlanta Village, Nolan is able to check in on people experiencing homelessness, work with clinics to deliver medication for addiction and mental health needs and alert community members about dangerous situations.

    As an example, in December 2023 a homeless man was arrested in East Atlanta Village for trespassing, stealing mail and other erratic behavior. When concerned residents posted to the neighborhood Facebook group, Nolan responded that he knew the man well, that this behavior was not typical and that he would look into the situation.

    Nolan later updated his post, commenting that the man had been arrested but that he would “continue to follow up and ensure that his current behaviors do not return upon his release.”

    In other examples, Nolan has helped de-escalate situations when people experienced mental health episodes in local coffee shops and churches.

    A model for other cities

    Cities around the U.S. have decisions to make about addressing homelessness and its associated challenges. Neighborhood social work is not a magic bullet, but my colleagues and I see it as a promising approach to address the most common challenges that neighborhoods with high rates of homelessness face.

    East Atlanta Village is currently working with the Atlanta City Council to renew funding for this program, which cost US$100,000 in its initial year. We hope that other neighborhoods also consider this strategy when deciding how to address homelessness in their own areas.

    Ishita Chordia is affiliated with the East Atlanta Neighborhood Association. She volunteers for the neighborhood association and has helped organize and evaluate the neighborhood social work program.

    – ref. This Atlanta neighborhood hired a case manager to address rising homelessness − and it’s improving health and safety for everyone – https://theconversation.com/this-atlanta-neighborhood-hired-a-case-manager-to-address-rising-homelessness-and-its-improving-health-and-safety-for-everyone-236466

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What’s in a pantsuit? Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s fashion choices say a lot about their personalities − and vision for the future

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Therèsa M. Winge, Fashion Professor, Michigan State University

    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have very different policy positions and political approaches − as well as fashion choices. Jacquelyn Martin/pool/AFP via Getty Images and Win McNamee/Getty Images

    Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump could not be more different – and this split between them extends far beyond politics and into their fashion choices.

    While Harris tends to wear form-fitting pantsuits and feminine tops, Trump opts for ill-fitting, boxy, navy suits and long red ties.

    All American politicians often wear American flag pins on their lapels, as well as red, white and blue clothing. But my research shows how fashion plays an important, symbolic role in politics that goes far beyond patriotism. A person’s appearance reflects their identity and how they want others to perceive them.

    It makes sense that political campaigns often work with professional stylists to dress and style their top candidates, as a way to define and reflect politicians’ different personalities, identities and policy positions.

    Kamala Harris arrives to speak at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024, wearing a dark blue pantsuit.
    Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    Harris’ professional, feminine look

    Harris typically wears an updated version of Hillary Clinton’s famous power pantsuits.

    While Clinton’s pantsuits during the 2016 presidential campaign had rigid silhouettes that did not show the shape of her body, Harris’ pantsuits are more relaxed and less formal.

    As a senator, Harris, alongside other Democratic female politicians, wore a white pantsuit to commemorate and celebrate the suffragettes.

    Harris now typically wears dark, bold hues, almost monochromatic ensembles, with either dark high heels or sneakers.

    At the Democratic National Convention in August 2024, Harris accepted the presidential nomination wearing a perhaps unsurprising navy blue pantsuit with the standard politician’s American flag pin on the lapel. She topped off the look with medium-heel dress shoes and a dark blue pussycat bow blouse, sometimes also called a lavallière. The pussycat bow blouse, which was popularized in the 1970s among professional women, is a feminine version of a traditional tie.

    This type of tie has a soft, floppy bow at the neck that can be tied in numerous ways.

    Harris’ decision to regularly wear pussycat bow blouses shows that she has a feminine flair, and it’s also a nod to past feminist icons who wore that type of bow.

    When Harris wears sneakers – which are often Chuck Taylors – with a pantsuit, it reminds me of how the actress Helen Hunt’s character wore practical commuter sneakers with business clothing in the 1990s and 2000s “Mad About You” TV series.

    The unlikely combination of a pantsuit with sneakers shows that Harris is a busy, professional woman – who is also youthful, energetic and relatable to other women.

    Walz’s American dad style

    Tim Walz speaks at a campaign rally in Volant, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024, wearing one of his signature flannel shirts.
    Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, has also received public attention for his clothing choices.

    At the Democratic National Convention in August, former President Barack Obama remarked about Walz regularly wearing plaid, flannel shirts. “You can tell those flannel shirts he wears don’t come from some political consultant. They come from his closet, and they have been through some stuff,” Obama said.

    Walz’s typical outfits, including plaid shirts, jeans and a well-worn suit with the shirt collar unbuttoned and no tie, signals that he is authentic and relatable to the average American.

    This unofficial uniform also helps cement the public perception of Walz as an archetypal American coach and dad.

    The Harris-Walz campaign has capitalized on Walz’s image by selling merchandise that seems like something out of his closet.

    The campaign’s camouflage hat, which spells out “HARRIS WALZ” in a bold, orange font, has become an extremely popular item – selling out and resulting in the manufacturer scrambling to find materials and sewing machines to make more hats.

    Donald Trump and JD Vance attend a 9/11 remembrance ceremony at the World Trade Center at Ground Zero in New York City on Sept. 11, 2024.
    Adam Gray/AFP via Getty Images

    Vance’s and Trump’s aesthetics

    Republican politicians also show who they are, or who they want to be, through their fashion choices. Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance, for example, has noticeably changed his appearance from when he first became involved in politics a few years ago to when he became a senator in 2023.

    In 2017, Vance often wore jeans, a button-down, open-collar shirt and an unbuttoned blazer during his book tour. When he was elected as a senator in 2023, he began wearing suits and ties.

    More recently, Vance began dressing in the unofficial Make America Great Again uniform, consisting of a tailored dark blue suit, red tie and white shirt with dark shoes. With this outfit choice, Vance is wrapping himself in red, white and blue, referencing the American flag and signaling his patriotism.

    Trump wears a nearly identical political uniform that has become instantly recognizable and closely associated with conservative politicians.

    When Trump selected Vance as his running mate in July 2024, Vance also dyed his gray hair to brown to possibly appear more youthful. Perhaps it became more important for Vance to appear younger after 81-year-old President Joe Biden stepped down from the Democratic ticket and 60-year-old Harris became the presidential candidate.

    Beyond the campaign, in February 2024, Trump released 1,000 pairs of limited edition high-top sneakers called “Never Surrender.” These shoes, which quickly sold out, were covered in gaudy, gold lamé and had an American flag printed around the collar of the sneakers.

    I recently found several examples of pairs of Trump sneakers for sale on eBay and other online shops for thousands of dollars.

    People at a Trump rally in Las Vegas hold a pair of his gold sneakers on Sept. 13, 2024.
    Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

    Fashion on both sides

    Harris’ monochromatic blouses and pantsuit with sneakers combination, alongside Walz’s Midwestern dad outfits, will likely help the campaign’s effort for its candidates to appear as relatable to many working class voters and women.

    Likewise, Trump’s classic MAGA red hat and tie, in addition to Vance’s similar uniform of navy blue suit, white button-down shirt and red tie, evoke their focus on masculine conservatism.

    The candidates’ styles don’t tell voters any details about campaign promises or political policies, but they do give an idea of who the candidates think they are.

    Therèsa M. Winge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What’s in a pantsuit? Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s fashion choices say a lot about their personalities − and vision for the future – https://theconversation.com/whats-in-a-pantsuit-kamala-harris-and-donald-trumps-fashion-choices-say-a-lot-about-their-personalities-and-vision-for-the-future-240084

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How beef became a marker of American identity

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Hannah Cutting-Jones, Assistant Professor, Department of Global Studies; Director of Food Studies, University of Oregon

    Beef dominates American diets. In 2022, Americans consumed almost 30 billion pounds of beef. Johnrob/E+ via Getty Images

    Beef is one of America’s most beloved foods. In fact, today’s average American eats three hamburgers per week.

    American diets have long revolved around beef. On an 1861 trip to the United States, the English novelist Anthony Trollope marveled that Americans consumed twice as much beef as Englishmen. Through war, industry, development and settlement, America’s love of beef continued. In 2022, the U.S. as a whole consumed almost 30 billion pounds (13.6 billion kilograms) of it, or 21% of the world’s beef supply.

    Beef has also reached iconic status in American culture. As “Slaughterhouse-Five” author Kurt Vonnegut once penned, “Being American is to eat a lot of beef, and boy, we’ve got a lot more beef steak than any other country, and that’s why you ought to be glad you’re an American.”

    In part, the dominance of beef in American cuisine can be traced to settler colonialism, a form of colonization in which settlers claim – and then transform – lands inhabited by Indigenous people. In America, this process centered on the systemic and often violent displacement of Native Americans. Settlers brought with them new cultural norms, including beef-heavy diets that required massive swaths of land for grazing cattle.

    As a food historian, I am interested in how, in the 19th century, the beef industry both propelled and benefited from colonialism, and how these intertwined forces continue to affect our diets, culture and environment today.

    Cattle and cowboys

    Beginning in the 16th century, the first Europeans to settle across the Americas – and later, Australia and New Zealand – brought their livestock with them. A global economy built on appropriated Indigenous territories allowed these nations to become among the highest consumers and producers of meat in the world.

    The United States in particular tied its burgeoning national identity and westward expansion to the settlement and acquisition of cattle-ranching lands. Until 1848, Arizona, California, Texas, Nevada, Utah, western Colorado and New Mexico were part of Mexico and inhabited by numerous tribes, Indigenous cowboys and Mexican ranchers.

    The Mexican-American War, which lasted from 1846-48, led to 525,000 square miles being ceded to the United States – land that became central to American beef production. Gold, discovered in the northern Sierra by 1849, drew hundreds of thousands more settlers to the region.

    The desire for cattle-supporting land played an integral role in the systematic decimation of bison populations, as well. For thousands of years, Native Americans relied on bison for physical and cultural survival. At least 30 million roamed the western United States in 1800; by 1890, 60 million head of cattle had taken their place.

    Beef replaces bison

    It is no coincidence that the rise of an extensive and powerful American beef industry coincided with the near-elimination of bison across the United States.

    Bison populations were already in steep decline by the mid-1800s, but after the Civil War, as industrialization transformed transportation, communication and mass production, the U.S. Army actively encouraged the wholesale slaughter of bison herds.

    In 1875, Philip Sheridan, a general in the U.S. Army, applauded the impact bison hunters could have on the beef industry. Hunters “have done more in the last two years, and will do more in the next year, to settle the vexed Indian question, than the entire regular army has done in the last forty years,” Sheridan said. “They are destroying the Indians’ commissary … (and so) for a lasting peace, let them kill, skin and sell until the buffaloes are exterminated. Then your prairies can be covered with speckled cattle.”

    In 1884, with no hint of irony, the U.S. Department of Indian Affairs constructed a slaughterhouse on the Blackfeet Reservation in Montana and required tribal members to provide the factory’s labor in exchange for its beef.

    By 1888, New York politician and sometimes rancher Theodore Roosevelt described Western stockmen as “the pioneers of civilization,” who with “their daring and adventurousness make the after settlement of the region possible.” Later, during Roosevelt’s presidency – from 1900 to 1908 – the U.S. claimed another 230 million acres of Indigenous lands for public use, further opening the West to ranching and settlement.

    The Union Stock Yards in Chicago, the most modern slaughterhouse of the era, opened on Christmas Day in 1865 and marked a turning point for industrial beef production. No longer delivered “on the hoof” to cities, cattle were now slaughtered in Chicago and sent East as tinned meat or, after the 1870s, in refrigerated railcars.

    Processing over 1 million head of cattle annually at its height, the Union Stock Yards, a global technological marvel and international tourist attraction, symbolized industrial progress and inspired national pride.

    Beef consumption has become part of the American origin myth of rugged individualism.
    pastorscott via Getty Images.

    Where’s the beef?

    By the turn of the 20th century, beef was solidly linked to American identity both at home and globally. In 1900, the average American consumed over 100 pounds of beef per year, almost twice the amount eaten by Americans today.

    Canadian food writer Marta Zaraska argues in her 2021 book “Meathooked” that beef became a key part of the American origin myth of rugged individualism that was emerging at this time. And cowboys, working the grueling cattle drives, came to embody values linked to the frontier: self-reliance, strength and independence.

    Popular for decades as a street food, America’s proudest culinary invention – the hamburger – debuted at the St. Louis World’s Fair in 1904 alongside other novelties such as Dr. Pepper and ice cream.

    After World War II, suburban markets and fast-food chains dominated the American foodscape, where beef burgers reigned supreme. By the end of the century, more people around the globe recognized the golden arches of McDonald’s than the Christian cross.

    At the same time, national programs reinforced food insecurity for Native Americans. In efforts to eventually dissolve reservations and open these lands to private development, for example, in 1952 the U.S. government launched the Voluntary Relocation Program, in which the Bureau of Indian Affairs persuaded many living on reservations to move to cities. The promised well-paying jobs did not materialize, and most of those who relocated traded rural for urban poverty.

    The true cost of a burger

    Plant- and lab-based meat companies are making headway into restaurants and food markets.
    coldsnowstorm/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Policies encouraging settler colonialism ultimately led to more sedentary lifestyles and a dependence on fast, convenient and processed foods – such as hamburgers – regardless of the individual or environmental costs.

    In recent decades, scientists have warned that industrial meat production, and beef in particular, fuels climate change and leads to deforestation, soil erosion, species extinction, ocean dead zones and high levels of methane emissions. It is also a threat to biodiversity. Nutritionist Diego Rose believes the best way “to reduce your carbon footprint (is to) eat less beef,” a view shared by other sustainability experts.

    As of January 2022, about 10% of Americans over the age of 18 considered themselves vegetarian or vegan. Another recent study found that 47% of American adults are “flexitarians” who eat primarily, but not wholly, plant-based diets.

    At the same time, small-scale farmers and cooperatives are working to restore soil health by reintegrating cows and other grazing animals into sustainable farming practices to produce more high-quality, environmentally friendly meat.

    More encouraging still, tribes in Montana – Blackfeet Nation, Fort Belknap Indian Community, Fort Peck Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes, and South Dakota’s Rosebud Sioux – have reintroduced bison to the northern Great Plains to revive the prairie ecosystem, tackle food insecurity and lessen the impacts of climate change.

    Even so, in the summer of 2024, Americans consumed 375 million hamburgers in celebration of Independence Day – more than any other food.

    Hannah Cutting-Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How beef became a marker of American identity – https://theconversation.com/how-beef-became-a-marker-of-american-identity-214824

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Americans use the Book of Revelation to talk about immigration – and always have

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Yii-Jan Lin, Associate Professor of New Testament and Public Voices Fellow, Yale University

    A French tapestry depicts Saint John the Evangelist gazing at the New Jerusalem. Octave 444 via Wikimedia Commons

    During a campaign speech in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 19, 2024, Donald Trump promised to save the country from immigrants: “I will rescue every town across America that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in a jail or kick them out of our country.”

    Depicting immigrants as a threat has been a pillar of Trump’s message since 2015. And the types of terms he uses aren’t just disparaging. It might not seem like it, but Trump is continuing a long tradition in American politics: using language shaped by the Bible.

    When the former president says those at the border are “poisoning the blood of our country,” “animals” and “rapists,” his vocabulary mirrors verses from the New Testament. The Book of Revelation, the last book of the Bible, says those kept out of the city of God are “filthy”; they are “dogs and sorcerers and sexually immoral and murderers and idolaters and everyone who loves and practices falsehood.”

    In fact, Americans have been using the Bible for centuries to talk about immigrants, especially those they want to keep out. As a scholar of the Bible and politics, I’ve studied how language from Revelation shaped American ideas about who belongs in the United States – the focus of my book, “Immigration and Apocalypse.”

    The shining city

    The Book of Revelation describes a vision of the end of the world, when the wicked are punished and the good rewarded. It tells the story of God’s enemies, who worship the evil Beast of the Sea, bear his mark on their body and threaten God’s people. Because of their wickedness, they suffer diseases, catastrophes and war until they are finally destroyed in the lake of fire.

    God’s followers, however, enter through the gates of the walls surrounding the New Jerusalem, a holy city that comes down from heaven. God’s chosen people enter through the gates and live in the shining city for eternity.

    18th century evangelists like the English preacher John Wesley urged sinners to take the path of righteousness, toward the New Jerusalem.
    Photo 12/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Throughout American history, many of its Christian citizens have imagined themselves as God’s saints in the New Jerusalem. Puritan colonists believed they were establishing God’s kingdom, both metaphorically and literally. Ronald Reagan likened the nation to the New Jerusalem by describing America as a “shining city … built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace,” but with city walls and doors.

    Reagan was specifically quoting Puritan John Winthrop, one of the founders of Massachusetts Bay Colony, whose use of the “city on a hill” phrase quotes Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount. But Reagan’s detailed description closely matches that of the New Jerusalem in Revelation 21. Like God’s heavenly city, Reagan’s picture of America also has strong foundations, walls and gates, and people from every nation bringing in tribute.

    Barring the gates

    If people imagine the U.S. as God’s city, then it’s easy also to imagine enemies who want to invade that city. And this is how unwanted immigrants have been depicted through American history: as enemies of God.

    In the 19th century, when virtually all politicians were Protestant, anti-Catholic politicians accused Irish immigrants of bearing the “mark of the Beast” and being loyal to the “Antichrist”: the pope. They claimed that Irish immigrants could form an unholy army against the nation.

    At the turn of the century, “yellow peril” novels against Chinese immigration imagined a heathen horde taking over the U.S. At the end of one such book, China itself is depicted as a satanic “Black Dragon,” forcing its way through “the Golden Gate” of America.

    ‘Uncle Sam’s Farm in Danger’: an 1878 cartoon by G. F. Keller depicts Chinese emigrants fleeing famine.
    The Wasp via Wikimedia Commons

    And all immigrant groups who were unwanted at one time or another have been accused of being “filthy” and diseased, like the enemies of God in Revelation. Italians, Jews, Irish, Chinese and Mexicans were all, at some point, targeted as unhealthy and carrying illness.

    In political cartoons from the turn of the 20th century, Eastern European and Jewish immigrants were depicted as rats, while Chinese immigrants were portrayed as a horde of grasshoppers – echoing imagery from Revelation, where locusts with human faces swarm the Earth. During COVID-19, an event itself considered apocalyptic, xenophobic fear has focused on Asian Americans and migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

    This constellation of labels from Revelation – plague-bearing, bestial, invading, sexually corrupt, murderous – has been reused and recycled throughout American history.

    A 1909 political cartoon by S.D. Ehrhart.
    Library of Congress

    ‘Heaven has a wall’

    Trump himself has described immigrants as diseased, “not human,” sexual assaulters, violent and those “who don’t like our religion.”

    Others have more explicitly used images from Revelation to talk about immigration. Pastor Robert Jeffress, who preached at Trump’s 2017 inauguration church service, told viewers on Fox News’ “Fox & Friends,” “God is not against walls, walls are not ‘un-Christian,’ the Bible says even heaven is going to have a wall around it.” The Conservative Political Action Conference held a panel in 2017 titled “If Heaven Has a Gate, A Wall, and Extreme Vetting, Why Can’t America?” There are even bumper stickers that say, “Heaven Has A Wall and Strict Immigration Policy / Hell Has Open Borders.”

    Revelation 21 indeed describes the heavenly New Jerusalem with a massive shining wall, “clear as crystal,” with pearls for gates. Trump, similarly, talks about his “big, beautiful door,” set in a “beautiful,” massive wall that also has to be “see-through.”

    The city of God metaphor has long been a tool for American leaders – both to idealize the nation and to warn against immigration. But the concept of a walled-in city seems increasingly outdated in a digitally connected, global world.

    As migration continues to rise around the world due to climate change and conflict, I’d argue that these metaphors and the attitudes they drive are not just obsolete, but exacerbating crisis.

    Yii-Jan Lin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Americans use the Book of Revelation to talk about immigration – and always have – https://theconversation.com/americans-use-the-book-of-revelation-to-talk-about-immigration-and-always-have-240969

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Halloween candy binges can overload your gut microbiome – a gut doctor explains how to minimize spooking your helpful bacteria

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christopher Damman, Associate Professor of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington

    It’s probably best to enjoy your Halloween spoils in moderation. Jupiterimages/The Image Bank via Getty Images

    Each October, as the days shorten and the air grows crisp, millions of Americans prepare for the beloved – and often sugar-fueled – tradition of Halloween. From jack-o’-lanterns glowing on porches to costumes ranging from the whimsical to the gory, Halloween is a time of playful scares, childhood memories and, of course, candy.

    But as the wrappers pile up and the sugar rush hits, there’s something far more sinister brewing beneath the surface: the negative effects of candy on your gut health.

    Sugar and other ingredients in Halloween treats can cast a sickly spell on the trillions of microorganisms that reside in your gut, collectively known as the gut microbiome. As a gastroenterologist and gut microbiome researcher at the University of Washington School of Medicine, I have dedicated my career to decoding the cipher of how food affects this microbial community within your gut.

    While no candy is truly healthy, some options are better for your gut than others. And there are ways you can help wake your gut from its sugar “spell” after holiday indulgence.

    Gut-busting treats

    What does all this candy do to your gut?

    In a healthy state, your gut microbiome acts like a microbial factory. It digests nutrients your body can’t – such as fiber and colorful, health-conferring plant compounds called polyphenols – and produces important molecules called metabolites that protect against infection and support brain health. It also regulates metabolism, or the transformation of food into useful components that power and grow cells.

    A balanced diet keeps your gut’s microbial cauldron churning smoothly. But the concentrated sugar, saturated fat and additives in candy can throw things into disarray by feeding inflammatory microbes that weaken your gut barrier – the protective lining that separates your microbiome from the rest of the body.

    Once the gut barrier is breached, even friendly microbes can stir up inflammation, causing health issues ranging from overweight to obesity, infections to autoimmune disease, and mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s.

    The food you eat shapes your gut microbes, which in turn shape your overall health.

    Sugar and inflammation impair your microbiome’s ability to digest food and regulate metabolism. Instead of producing healthy byproducts – such as butyrate from fiber and urolithin A from polyphenols – candy lacking these nutrients may trick your system into storing more fat, providing less energy for your muscles and brain.

    Too much candy can also affect your immune system. A healthy gut microbiome helps your immune system distinguish between friend and foe, reducing the risk of infections and autoimmune disorders. Sugar and inflammation undermine the microbiome’s role in training the immune system to distinguish between harmful invaders and harmless substances. Without a carefully calibrated immune system, your body may not effectively clear infections or may strongly react to its own cells.

    Neurologically, excess sweets can also affect the gut-brain axis, the two-way communication between the gut and brain. A healthy microbiome normally produces neurotransmitters and metabolites, such as serotonin and butyrate, that influence mood and cognitive performance. Sugar and inflammation adversely affects the microbiome’s role in mental health and cognitive function, contributing to depression, anxiety and memory troubles.

    The candy conundrum

    Not all Halloween treats are created equal, especially when it comes to their nutritional value and effects on gut health. Sugar-coated nuts and fruit such as honey-roasted almonds and candy apples rank among the top, offering whole food benefits just beneath the sugary coating. Packed with fiber and polyphenols, they help support gut health and healthy metabolism.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum are chewy treats such as candy corn, Skittles, Starbursts and Twizzlers. These sugar-laden confections are mostly made of high fructose corn syrup, saturated fat and additives. They can increase the unsavory bacterial species in your gut and lead to inflammation, making them one of the least healthy Halloween choices.

    Chocolate-based candies, however, stand out as a more microbiome-friendly option. While varieties such as Twix, Three Musketeers and Milky Way contain only a small amount of chocolate, pure chocolate bars – especially dark chocolate – are rich in fiber and polyphenols. In moderation, dark chocolate with at least 80% to 85% cacao may even benefit your gut microbiome and mood by encouraging beneficial bacterial species to grow.

    Candy apples usually provide a serving of fruit and nuts.
    Ryan Benyi Photography/Connect Images via Getty Images

    Chocolates with whole nuts, such as almonds or peanuts, offer a boost of fiber, protein and omega-3 fats, making them a healthier choice. Dark chocolate with nuts is best. But when sorting through Halloween treats, Peanut M&Ms, 100 Grands and Almond Joys may be better options over Rolos, Krackels and Crunches. Even candies with processed nuts, such as Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Butterfingers, retain small amounts of fiber and protein, making them preferable to nut-free options.

    At the bottom of the list, along with chewy sugar candies, are pure sugar candies such as lollipops, Jolly Ranchers, gummies and Smarties. These sweets lack nutritional value, and their high sugar content can contribute to the growth of unhealthy bacteria in your gut microbiome.

    In the end, all candies are high in sugar, which can be harmful when consumed in large quantities. Moderation and an otherwise balanced diet is key to enjoying Halloween treats.

    Rebalancing after indulgence

    If the microbiome is critical for health, and candy can disrupt its balance, how can you restore gut health after Halloween?

    One simple strategy is focusing on the four F’s of food: fiber, phytochemicals, unsaturated fats and fermented foods. These food components can help support gut health.

    Fiber-rich foods such as whole grains, nuts, seeds, beans, fruits and vegetables regulate digestion and nourish beneficial gut bacteria.

    Dark chocolate is a treat that may offer some health benefits.
    Wachiwit/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Polyphenol-rich foods such as dark chocolate, berries, red grapes, green tea and extra virgin olive oil help reduce inflammation and encourage the growth of healthy gut bacteria.

    Unsaturated fats such as omega-3 fats, walnuts, chia seeds, flaxseed, avocados and fatty fish such as salmon can also support a healthy microbiome.

    Fermented foods such as sauerkraut, kimchi, yogurt, kefir and miso help replenish beneficial bacteria and restore gut balance.

    To make tracking your diet easier, consider using a food calculator to measure how well your meals align with the four F’s and microbiome friendly options. Like a virtual “spellbook,” an online tool can help ensure your food choices support your gut health and ward off the effects of sugar overload.

    As my daughters often remind me, it’s perfectly fine to indulge every now and then in a few tricks and treats. But remember, moderation is key. With a balanced diet, you’ll keep your gut healthy and strong long after the Halloween season ends.

    Christopher Damman is on the scientific advisory board at Oobli, Supergut, and One BIO.

    – ref. Halloween candy binges can overload your gut microbiome – a gut doctor explains how to minimize spooking your helpful bacteria – https://theconversation.com/halloween-candy-binges-can-overload-your-gut-microbiome-a-gut-doctor-explains-how-to-minimize-spooking-your-helpful-bacteria-240504

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –