Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amanda Cole, Lecturer in Department of Language and Linguistics, University of Essex
On October 21 1964, the iconic and much-celebrated film My Fair Lady premiered in Hollywood. Sixty years later, the film remains an enjoyable rollick full of catchy songs, but is not a wholly accurate depiction of what linguists do – certainly not nowadays at least.
Linguists are far from the academics who are most frequently depicted in films. It’s normally the white-coat, work-in-a-lab, scientist-of-some-nondescript-sort professors who get to give stark warnings or unsettling research insights to the maverick protagonist. But My Fair Lady is a film all about linguistics (and also class, love and terrible Cockney accents – more on that later).
In the film, Professor Henry Higgins (Rex Harrison), takes under his wing a Cockney flower seller called Eliza Doolittle (Audrey Hepburn). He wagers with his friend and fellow haughty linguist, Colonel Pickering, that he can teach her to speak “properly”.
It seems at first there is no hope but – hoorah! – Eliza finally grasps it, suddenly blurting out “the rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain” in a perfect imitation of Queen’s English.
Doolittle then dazzles at an embassy ball, the perfect replica of an upstanding posh woman – or, as the film’s title suggests, a “lady” (itself a problematic word which encodes sexist tropes about what should be aspirational and respectable for women).
She even fools a man who has made a name for himself by identifying imposters based on their accent. Though, you may also wonder if she evades detection by barely speaking at the ball, converted into a demure and unforthcoming shadow of her previously forthright, unapologetic and garrulous self.
Professor Higgins: not your typical linguist
My Fair Lady avoids the common pitfall of assuming that the primary endeavour of the linguist is to learn as many different languages as they can, collecting them like stamps (the film Arrival can take note). But it still doesn’t get our job quite right.
I, for one, have never groomed a young, destitute woman to speak “correctly” while moulding her into a “respectable”, posh woman (if only modern academia granted the breathing space for such folly).
Linguists love, celebrate and are constantly itching to understand, study and explore the diverse tapestry of accents, dialects and languages that exist in the UK and around the world. We have no interest in reinforcing any societal ideal for a supposedly “correct” accent, or throwing a grammar rule book at unwitting members of the public.
By contrast, Higgins is repulsed by any accent that is not Queen’s English (which, by a wonderful turn of luck, is also his accent). In the opening number, he has a pop at the dialects of Yorkshire, Cornwall, America, Scotland and Ireland.
But he is particularly dismayed and repulsed that Doolittle, despite being from London, has a strong London accent (or she is meant to at least – I can only imagine Hepburn was instructed to open her mouth as wide as possible for all vowels and caw like a crow if all else fails).
Higgins makes various proclamations which will have you shouting at the telly, “Steady on, Professor!”. In his words:
Look at her, a prisoner of the gutter / Condemned by every syllable she ever utters / By right, she should be taken out and hung for the cold-blooded murder of the English tongue.
Best not tell him “hanged” is the past tense of “hang” when referring to capital punishment, else he walk himself straight to the gallows.
With a little bit of accent prejudice
The real beast in disguise at the embassy ball is not young, Cockney, Eliza Doolittle. It is misogyny and contempt for the working class that hides behind a mask of maintaining good standards and protecting the English language.
Accent prejudice is a smokescreen for broader societal prejudice. My Fair Lady seems antiquated and quaint in many ways – like Higgins using a gramophone to play back recordings of Doolittle – but accent prejudice is alive and well.
Women in the UK such as Alex Scott, Angela Rayner and Priti Patel still routinely face criticism, commentary and contempt for their regional accents.
You might think that the film’s lesson is for Doolittle to take on the world with her freshly mastered “standard” accent. After all, she consented to being ridiculed and paraded around like a show dog as she felt her accent prevented her from getting a job in a flower shop. Now, nothing stands in her way.
But people should not have to change their accent to get along – and it is not always possible or even a guaranteed ticket out of discrimination. If we take the accent out of accent prejudice, we are still left with the prejudice – let’s remove the prejudice and be left with the accent.
We need more unapologetically working-class women with regional accents at the embassy ball, but also in politics, academia, in the media and in all walks of life.
In the film, Doolittle ultimately feels she has been used and disrespected, leading her to sour on Higgins. After she leaves, he grows to miss her and wistfully plays back recordings of her voice.
And this is the real lesson for viewers today. Higgins has gotten to know Doolittle as a person and now sees beyond her accent and his own prejudice. The more we hear people with regional accents, the more normal and uneventful it becomes, and the more we will focus on what they say and not how they say it.
Amanda Cole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science, Director of Oxford Net Zero, University of Oxford
Kodda / Shutterstock
The UK government has given the go-ahead to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) schemes worth £22 billion (US$28.6 billion). Critics are insisting that this technology – which involves capturing carbon as it is emitted or taking it back out of the atmosphere, then pumping it into rocks deep underground – is unsafe, unproven and unaffordable. Defenders are responding with painstaking rebuttals.
Could the whole debate be missing the point? I think it is better to focus on the big picture – why we need CCS to work – rather than playing whack-a-mole with every objection to individual projects.
The case for CCS boils down to waste disposal: we are going to make too much carbon dioxide (CO₂), so we need to start getting rid of it, permanently.
By burning fossil fuels and producing cement alone, we will generate more CO₂ than we can afford to dump into the atmosphere to have any chance of limiting global warming to close to 1.5°C – even after accounting for the capacity of the biosphere and oceans to mop it up.
So, we need to start disposing of that CO₂, safely and permanently, on a scale of billions of tonnes a year by mid-century. And the only proven way of doing this right now is to re-inject it back underground.
Keep our options open
The world is not giving up fossil fuels any time soon, and the transition is going to be difficult enough without tying our hands by ruling out using CCS technology.
The questions we should be asking are: will “green hydrogen” – a low-carbon fuel produced from water using renewable electricity – be a cheaper way of dealing with lulls in renewable energy generation than gas-fired power plants fitted with CCS? And, can we get by entirely on recycled steel, and eliminate the use of conventional cement in construction, when steel and cement are notoriously hard to produce without fossil fuels?
If the answer to any of these questions, anywhere in the world, turns out to be “no” – or even “not by 2050” – then we need CCS.
Would taking CCS off the table focus minds and make us abandon fossil fuels faster? Perhaps, but it could equally make us abandon climate targets – ultimately, the most expensive option of all.
We should be conscious of “lifecycle emissions” for all forms of energy – including, for example, green hydrogen made with electricity from solar panels that were manufactured using coal-fired power. The right response is to find cleaner suppliers of solar panels for green hydrogen, and cleaner suppliers of gas for blue hydrogen. The wrong response is to give up on either fuel source.
Nature is maxed out
What about offsetting continued fossil fuel use with nature-based solutions, such as restoring ecosystems and rewilding? Unfortunately, we are already maxing out nature’s credit card.
In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios in which warming is kept close to 1.5°C, we need to eliminate deforestation almost immediately, and restore a cumulative total of 250 billion tonnes of CO₂ to the biosphere over the coming 75 years – by restoring forests and wetlands, for example.
Over the same period, we also need to dispose of four times that amount of CO₂ back underground through various forms of CCS – after slashing the amount of CO₂ we produce by 75%-80%.
We cannot bank on stuffing an additional trillion tonnes of CO₂ into the biosphere over the next 75 years – especially as more Earth system feedbacks emerge and accelerate, whereby carbon stored at the Earth’s surface is re-released to the atmosphere as the world warms, forests burn, and peatlands dry out.
Invest, but invest wisely
To limit global warming to the extent the planet urgently requires, we need a means of permanent CO₂ disposal that does not make further demands on the biosphere. But at the same time as enabling CCS technology, we also need to make sure its availability does not encourage yet more CO₂ emissions.
This is where critics of government policy may have a point. If CCS is widely available and heavily subsidised, will that just encourage individuals and companies to use more fossil fuels? The danger is real, but it doesn’t mean we should abandon CCS. We need to be smart about how it is implemented.
Given the way the first CCS projects were set up by the previous UK government, an initial injection of £22 billion from taxpayers is, by now, the only way to kickstart a CO₂ disposal industry. But this should not become an endless subsidy which allows private industry to keep profiting from selling the stuff that causes global warming, while taxpayers pay for the clean-up.
The UK government could make it clear that, by mid-century, anyone selling fossil fuels in the UK will be responsible for permanently disposing all CO₂ generated by their activities and the products they sell.
Pricing in safe CO₂ disposal would make fossil fuels more expensive, potentially adding 5p per kWh to the cost of natural gas over the next 25 years. That’s cheap compared with the cost of just dumping CO₂ into the atmosphere.
It is possible, and even affordable, to ensure fossil fuel use falls to meet our available CO₂ disposal capacity. There again, building a global CO₂ disposal industry from a standing start in only 25 years will be hard.
Fortunately, the UK has the right geology, skills and expertise, as well as a history of innovation in climate policy. It also has a clear interest in getting involved in what should become one of the major industries of the second half of this century. And it has a moral obligation, having pioneered taking fossil carbon out of the Earth’s crust, to join the first wave of countries putting it back.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Myles Allen receives funding from the Strategic Research Fund of the University of Oxford and the European Commission. He is a member of the Advisory Board of Puro.Earth.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kieran Maguire, Senior Teacher in Accountancy and member of Football Industries Group, University of Liverpool
When the Premier League broke away from the rest of English football in 1992, its 22 clubs generated £205 million in its debut season, and the average player earned £2,050 a week. Thirty years later, despite having two fewer clubs, the league’s revenue had increased by 2,850% to £6.1 billion and the average player earned £93,000 a week.
At the heart of this extraordinary growth is an American revolution. In the Premier League’s inaugural season, football was still in recovery from the horrors of the stadium disasters at Hillsborough and Heysel. Owners tended to be from the local area and with a business background. The only foreign owner was Sam Hamman at Wimbledon, a Lebanese millionaire who bought the club on a whim having reportedly been much more interested in tennis. The season ended with Manchester United (under Alex Ferguson) winning the English game’s top league for the first time in 26 years.
Now, if the Texas-based Friedkin Group’s recent deal to buy Everton goes through, 11 of the 20 Premier League clubs will be controlled or part-owned by American investors. The US – long seen as football’s final frontier when it comes to the men’s game – suddenly can’t get enough of English “soccer”.
Four of the Premier League’s “big six” are American-owned – Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – while a fifth, Manchester City, has a significant US minority shareholding. Aston Villa, Fulham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Ipswich Town also have varying degrees of American ownership.
And it’s not even just the glamour clubs at the top of the tree. American investment has also been significant lower down the football pyramid, led by the high-profile acquisition of then non-league Wrexham by Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenny, and Birmingham City’s purchase by US investors including seven-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady. American investment in football has reached places as geographically diverse as Carlisle and Crawley in England, and Aberdeen and Edinburgh in Scotland.
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Manchester United was the first Premier League club to come under American ownership – after a row about a horse.
In 2005, United was owned by a variety of investors including Irish businessmen and racehorse owners John Magnier and J.P. McManus. Their erstwhile friend Ferguson, the United manager, thought he co-owned the champion racehorse Rock of Gibraltar with them – a stallion worth millions in stud rights. They disagreed – and their bitter dispute was such that Magnier and McManus decided to sell their shares in the football club.
The Miami-based Glazer family – already involved in sport as owners of NFL franchise the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – had already been buying up small tranches of shares in United, but the sudden availability of the Irish shares allowed Malcolm Glazer to acquire a controlling stake for £790 million (around £1.5 billion at today’s prices).
The fact Glazer did not actually have sufficient funds to pay for these shares was a solvable problem. In the some-might-say commercially naive world of top-flight English football before the Premier League, Manchester United was a club without debt, paying its way without leveraging its position as one of the world’s most famous football clubs. Glazer saw the opportunity this presented and arranged a leveraged buy-out (LBO), whereby the football club borrowed more than £600 million secured on its own assets to, in effect, “buy itself” in 2005.
Despite the need to meet the high interest costs to fund the LBO, United continued winning trophies under Ferguson – including three Premier League titles in a row in 2007, 2008 and 2009, as well as a Champions League victory in 2008. Amid this success, the club felt that ticket prices were too low and set about increasing them, with matchday revenue increasing from £66 million in 2004/05 to over £101 million by 2007/08.
Commercial income was another area the Glazers were keen to increase. United set up offices in London and adopted a global approach to finding new official branding deals ranging from snacks to tractor and tyre suppliers – doubling revenues from this income source too.
But in this new, more aggressive world of “sweating the asset”, the debts lingered – and most United fans remained deeply suspicious of their American owners. (Following their father’s death in 2014, the club was co-owned by his six children, with brothers Avram and Joel Glazer becoming co-chairmen.)
Today, despite its partial listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the February 2024 sale of 27.7% of the club to British billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe for a reputed £1.25 billion, United still has borrowings of more than £546 million, having paid cumulative interest costs of £969 million since the takeover in 2005. But with the club now valued at US$6.55 billion (around £5bn), it represents a very smart investment for the Glazer family.
Indeed, while the prices being paid for football clubs across Europe have reached record levels, they are still seen as cheap investments compared with US sports’ leading franchises. Forbes’s annual list of the world’s most valuable sports teams has American football (NFL), baseball (MLB) and basketball (NBA) teams occupying the top ten positions, with only three Premier League clubs – Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City – in the top 50.
With NFL teams having an average franchise value of US$5.1 billion and NBA $3.9 billion, many English football clubs still look like a bargain from the other side of the pond.
The risk of relegation
The latest to join this US bandwagon, the Friedkin Group – a Texas-based portfolio of companies run by American businessman and film producer Dan Friedkin – is reported to have offered £400m to buy Everton, despite the club’s poor financial state.
“The Toffees” have been hit by loss of sponsorships as well as two sets of points deductions for breaching the Premier League’s financial rules, leading to revenue losses from lower league positions. While the new stadium being built at Liverpool’s Bramley-Moore dock has been yet another financial constraint, it will at least increase matchday income from the start of next season.
Everton’s new stadium at Bramley-Moore dock will open in time for the start of the 2025-26 season. Phil Silverman / Shutterstock
A wider reason for the relative bargain in valuations of European football clubs is the risk of relegation – something that is not part of the closed leagues of most US sports. While the threat of relegation (and promise of promotion) has always been an integral part of English and European football, the jeopardy this brings for supporters – and a club’s finances – does not exist in the NFL, NBA, Major League Soccer and similar competitions.
The Premier League, with its three relegation spots at the end of each season, has featured 51 different clubs since it launched in 1992. Only six clubs – Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton – have been ever present, with Arsenal now approaching 100 years of consecutive top-flight football.
Other Premier League clubs have experienced the dramatic cost-benefit of relegation and promotion. Oldham Athletic, who were in the Premier League for its first two seasons, now languish in the fifth tier of the game, outside the English Football League (EFL). In contrast, Luton Town, who were in the fifth tier as recently as 2014, were promoted to the Premier League in 2023 – only to be relegated at the end of last season.
While it is difficult to compare football clubs with basketball and American football teams, the financial difference between having an open league, with relegation, and a closed league becomes apparent when you look at women’s football on both sides of the Atlantic.
Angel City, a women’s soccer team based in Los Angeles, only entered the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) in 2022 and is yet to win an NWSL trophy. But last month, the club was sold for US$250 million (£188m) to Disney’s CEO Bob Iger and TV journalist Willow Bay – the most expensive takeover in the history of women’s professional sport.
In comparison, Chelsea – seven-time winners of the English Women’s Super League and one of the most successful sides in Europe – valued its women’s team at £150 million ($US196m) earlier this summer. While there are a number of factors to this price differential, the confidence that Angel City will always be a member of the big league of US soccer clubs – and share very equally in its revenue – will have made its new owners very confident in the long-term soundness of their deal.
The story of Angel City FC, the most expensive team in women’s sport.
A further attraction for American investors is the potential to enter two markets – one mature (men’s football) and one effectively a start-up (the women’s game) – in a single purchase. In the US, the top men’s and women’s clubs are completely separate. But in Europe, most top-flight women’s teams are affiliated to men’s clubs – with the exception of eight-time Women’s Champions League winners Olympique Lyonnais Feminin, which split from the French men’s club when Korean-American businesswoman Michele Kang bought a majority stake in the women’s team in February 2024).
While interest in, and hence value of, the WSL is now growing fast, the women’s game in England is dwarfed by viewer ratings for the Premier League – the most watched sporting league in the world, viewed by an estimated 1.87 billion people every week across 189 countries.
These figures dwarf even the NFL which, while currently still the most valuable of all sporting leagues in terms of its broadcasting deals, must be looking at the growth of the Premier League with some jealousy. This may explain why some US franchise owners, such as Stan Kroenke, the Glazer family, Fenway Sports Group and Billy Foley, have subsequently purchased Premier League football clubs.
Ironically, for many spectators around the world, it is the intensity and competitiveness of most Premier League matches – brought on in part by the threat of relegation and prize of European qualification – that makes it so captivating. However, billionaire investors like guaranteed numbers and dislike risk – especially the degree of financial risk that exists in the Premier League and English Football League.
European not-so-Super League
In April 2021, 12 leading European clubs (six from England plus three each from Spain and Italy) announced the creation of the European Super League (ESL). This new mid-week competition was to be a high-revenue generating, closed competition with (eventually) 15 permanent teams and five annual additions qualifying from Europe. According to one of the driving forces behind the plan, Manchester United co-chairman Joel Glazer:
By bringing together the world’s greatest clubs and players to play each other throughout the season, the Super League will open a new chapter for European football, ensuring world-class competition and facilities, and increased financial support for the wider football pyramid.
The problem facing the Premier League’s “big six” clubs – and their ambitious owners – is there are currently only four slots available to play in the Champions League. So, their thinking went, why not take away the risk of not qualifying? However, the proposal was swiftly condemned by fans around Europe, together with football’s governing bodies and leagues – all of whom saw the ESL proposal as a threat to the quality and integrity of their domestic leagues. Following some large fan protests, including at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, Manchester City was the first club to withdraw – followed, within a couple of days, by the rest of the English clubs.
Under the terms of the ESL proposals, founding member clubs would have been guaranteed participation in the competition forever. Guaranteed participation means guaranteed revenues. The current financial gap between the “big six” and the other members of the Premier League, which in 2022/23 averaged £396 million, would have widened rapidly.
For example, these clubs would have been able to sell the broadcast rights for some of their ESL home fixtures direct to fans, instead of via a broadcaster. All of a sudden, that database of fans who have downloaded the official club app, or are on a mailing list, becomes far more valuable. These are the people most willing to watch their favourite team on a pay-per-view basis, further increasing revenues.
At the same time, a planned ESL wage cap would have stopped players taking all these increased revenues in the form of higher wages, allowing these clubs to become more profitable and their ownership even more lucrative.
American-owned Manchester United and Liverpool had previously tried to enhance the value of their investments during the COVID lockdowns era via ProjectBig Picture – proposals to reduce the size of the Premier League and scrap one of the two domestic cup competitions, thus freeing up time for the bigger clubs to arrange more lucrative tours and European matches against high-profile opposition.
Most importantly, Project Big Picture would have resulted in changing the governance of the domestic game. Under its proposals, the “big six” clubs would have enjoyed enhanced voting rights, and therefore been able to significantly influence how the domestic game was governed.
Any attempt to increase the concentration of power raises concerns of lower competitive balance, whereby fewer teams are in the running to win the title and fewer games are meaningful. This is a problem facing some other major European football leagues including France’s Ligue 1, where interest among broadcasters has dwindled amid the perceived dominance of Paris St-Germain.
So while to date, American-led attempts to change the structure of the Premier League have been foiled, it’s unlikely such ideas have gone away for good. The near-universal fear of fans – even those who welcome an injection of extra cash from a new billionaire owner – is that the spectacle of the league will only be diminished if such plans ever succeed.
And there is evidence from the women’s game that the US closed league format is coming under more pressure from football’s global forces. The NWSL recently announced it is removing the draft system that is designed (as with the NFL and NBA) to build in jeopardy and competitive balance when there is no risk of relegation.
Top US women’s football clubs are losing some of their leading players to other leagues, in part because European clubs are not bound by the same artificial rules of employment. In a truly global professional sport such as football, international competition will always tend to destabilise closed leagues.
Why do they keep buying these clubs?
Does this mean that American and other wealthy owners of Premier League clubs seeking to reduce their risks are ultimately fighting a losing battle? And if so, given the potential risks involved in owning a football club – both financial and even personal – why do they keep buying them?
The motivations are part-financial, part technological and, as has always been the case with sports ownership, part-vanity.
The American economy has grown far faster than that of the EU or UK in recent years. Consequently, there are many beneficiaries of this growth who have surplus cash, and here football becomes an attractive proposition. In fact, football clubs are more resilient to recessions than other industries, holding their value better as they are effectively monopoly suppliers for their fans who have brand loyalty that exists in few other industries.
From 1993 to 2018, a period during which the UK economy more than doubled, the total value of Premier League clubs grew 30 times larger. And many fans are tied to supporting one club, helping to make the biggest clubs more resilient to economic changes than other industries. While football, like many parts of the entertainment industry, was hit by lockdown during Covid, no clubs went out of business, despite the challenges of matches being played in empty stadiums.
Added to this, the exchange rates for US dollars have been very favourable until recently, making US investments in the UK and Europe cheaper for American investors.
So, while Manchester United fans would argue that the Glazer family have not been good for the club, United has been good for the Glazers. And Fenway Sports Group (FSG), who bought Liverpool for £300 million in 2010, have recouped almost all of that money in smaller share sales while remaining majority owners of Liverpool.
Despite this, the £2.5 billion price paid for Chelsea by the US Clearlake-Todd Boehly consortium in May 2022 took markets by surprise.
The sale – which came after the UK government froze the assets of the club’s Russian oligarch owner, Roman Abramovich, following the invasion of Ukraine – went through less than a year after Newcastle United had been sold by Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley to the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund for £305 million – approximately twice that club’s annual revenues. Yet Clearlake-Boehly were willing to pay over five times Chelsea’s annual revenues to acquire the club, even though it was in a precarious financial position.
Clearlake is a private equity group whose main aim is to make profits for their investors. But unlike most such investors, who tend to focus on cost-cutting, the Chelsea ownership came in with a high-spending strategy using new financial structuring ideas, such as offering longer player contracts to avoid falling foul of football’s profitability and sustainability rules (although this loophole has since been closed with Uefa, European football’s governing body, limiting contract lengths for financial regulation purposes to five years).
Chelsea’s location in the one of the most expensive areas of London, combined with its on-field success under Abramovich, all added to the attraction, of course. But there are other reasons why Clearlake, along with billionaire businessman Boehly, were willing to stump up so much for the club.
From Hollywood to the metaverse
While some British football fans may have viewed the Ted Lasso TV show as an enjoyable if slightly twee fictional account of American involvement in English soccer, it has enhanced the attraction of the sport in the US. So too Welcome To Wrexham – the fly-on-the-wall series covering the (to date) two promotions of Wales’s oldest football club under the unlikely Hollywood stewardship of Reynolds and McElhenney.
Welcome To Wrexham, season one trailer.
The growth in US interest in English football is reflected in the record-breaking Premier League media rights deal in 2022, with NBC Sports reportedly paying $2.7 billion (£2.06bn) for its latest six-year deal.
But as well as football offering one of increasingly few “live shared TV experiences” that carry lucrative advertising slots, there may also be more opportunity for more behind-the-scenes coverage of the Premier League – as has long been seen in US coverage of NBA games, for example, where players are interviewed in the locker room straight after games.
According to Manchester United’s latest annual report, the club now has a “global community of 1.1 billion fans and followers”. Such numbers mean its owners, and many others, are bullish about the potential of the metaverse in terms of offering a matchday experience that could be similar to attending a match, without physically travelling to Manchester.
Their neighbours Manchester City, part-owned by American private equity company Silverlake, broke new (virtual) ground by signing a metaverse deal with Sony in 2022. Virtual reality could give fans around the world the feeling of attending a live match, sitting next to their friends and singing along with the rest of the crowd (for a pay-per-view fee).
Some investors are even confident that advancements in Abba-style avatar technology could one day allow fans to watch live 3D simulations of Premier League matches in stadiums all over the world. Having first-mover advantage by being in the elite club of owners who can make use of such technology could prove ever more rewarding.
More immediately, there are some indications that competitive matches involving England’s top men’s football teams could soon take place in US or other venues. Boehly, Chelsea’s co-owner, has already suggested adopting some US sports staples such as an All-Star match to further boost revenues. Indeed, back in 2008, the Premier League tentatively discussed a “39th game” taking place overseas, but that idea was quickly shelved.
The American owners of Birmingham City were keen to play this season’s EFL League One match against Wrexham in the US, but again this proposal did not get far. Liverpool’s chairman Tom Werner says he is determined to see matches take place overseas, and recent changes to world governing body Fifa’s rulebook could make it easier for this proposal to succeed.
The potential benefits of hosting games overseas include higher matchday revenues, increased brand awareness, and enhanced broadcast rights. While there is likely to be significant opposition from local fans, at least American owners know they would not face the same hostility about rising matchday prices in the US as they have encountered in England.
When the Argentinian legend Lionel Messi signed for new MLS franchise Inter Miami in 2023, season ticket prices nearly doubled on his account. And while there is vocal opposition to higher ticket prices in England, this is not borne out in terms of lower attendances for matches against high-calibre opposition – as evidenced by Aston Villa charging up to £97 for last week’s Champions League meeting with Bayern Munich.
Villa’s director of operations, Chris Heck, defended the prices by saying that difficult decisions had to be made if the club was to be competitive.
Manchester United’s matchday revenue per EPL season (£m)
For much of the 2010s, with broadcast revenues increasing rapidly, many Premier League owners made little effort to stoke hostilities with their loyal fan bases by putting up ticket prices. Indeed, Manchester United generated little more from matchday income in the 2021-22 season, as football emerged from the pandemic, than the club had in 2010-11 (see chart above).
However, this uneasy truce between fans and owners has ceased. The relative flatlining of broadcast revenues since 2017, along with cost control rules that are starting to affect clubs’ ability to spend money on player signings and wages, has changed club appetites for dampened ticket prices. This has resulted in noticeable rises in individual ticket and season ticket prices by some clubs.
However, season ticket and other local “legacy” fans generate little money compared with the more lucrative overseas and tourist fans. They may only watch their favourite team live once a season, but when they visit, they are far more likely not only to pay higher matchday prices, but to spend more on merchandise, catering and other offerings from the club.
Today’s breed of commercially aware, profit-seeking US Premier League owners – pioneered by the Glazer family, who saw that “sweating the asset” meant more than watching football players sprinting hard – understand there is a lot more value to come from English football teams. The clubs’ loyal local supporters may not like it, but English football’s American-led revolution is not done yet.
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Kieran Maguire has taught courses and presented on football finance for the Professional Footballers Association, League Managers Association, FIFA and national football associations in Europe.
Christina Philippou is affiliated with the RAF FA, and Premier League education programs.
The artificial intelligence boom has already changed how we understand technology and the world. But developing and updating AI programs requires a lot of computing power. This relies heavily on servers in data centres, at a great cost in terms of carbon emissions and resource use.
One particularly energy intensive task is “training”, where generative AI systems are exposed to vast amounts of data so that they improve at what they do.
The development of AI-based systems has been blamed for a 48% increase in Google’s greenhouse gas emissions over five years. This will make it harder for the tech giant to achieve its goal of reaching net zero by 2030.
Some in the industry justify the extra energy expenditure from AI by pointing to benefits the technology could have for environmental sustainability and climate action. Improving the efficiency of solar and wind power through predicting weather patterns, “smart” agriculture and more efficient, electric autonomous vehicles are among the purported benefits of AI for the Earth.
It’s against this background that tech companies have been looking to renewables and nuclear fission to supply electricity to their data centres.
Nuclear fission is the type of nuclear power that’s been in use around the world for decades. It releases energy by splitting a heavy chemical element to form lighter ones. Fission is one thing, but some in Silicon Valley feel a different technology will be needed to plug the gap: nuclear fusion.
Unlike fission, nuclear fusion produces energy by combining two light elements to make a heavier one. But fusion energy is an unproven solution to the sustainability challenge of AI. And the enthusiasm of tech CEOs for this technology as an AI energy supply risks sidelining the potential benefits for the planet.
Beyond the conventional
Google recently announced that it had signed a deal to buy energy from small nuclear reactors. This is a technology, based on nuclear fission, that allows useful amounts of power to be produced from much smaller devices than the huge reactors in big nuclear power plants. Google plans to use these small reactors to generate the power needed for the rise in use of AI.
This year, Microsoft announced an agreement with the company Constellation Energy, which could pave the way to restart a reactor at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island nuclear power station, the site of the worst nuclear accident in US history.
However, nuclear power produces long-lived radioactive waste, which needs to be stored securely. Nuclear fuels, such as the element uranium (which needs to be mined), are finite, so the technology is not considered renewable. Renewable sources of energy, such as solar and wind power suffer from “intermittency”, meaning they do not consistently produce energy at all hours of the day.
These limitations have driven some to look to look to nuclear fusion as a solution. Most notably, Sam Altman of OpenAI has shown particular interest in Helion Energy, a fusion startup working on a relatively novel technological design.
In theory, nuclear fusion offers a “holy grail” energy source by generating a large output of energy from small quantities of fuel, with no greenhouse gas emissions from the process and comparatively little radioactive waste. Some forms of fusion rely on a fuel called deuterium, a form of hydrogen, which can be extracted from an abundant source: seawater.
In the eyes of its advocates, like Altman, these qualities make nuclear fusion well suited to meet the challenges of growing energy demand in the face of the climate crisis –- and to meet the vast demands of AI development.
However, dig beneath the surface and the picture isn’t so rosy. Despite the hopes of its proponents, fusion technologies have yet to produce sustained net energy output (more energy than is put in to run the reactor), let alone produce energy at the scale required to meet the growing demands of AI. Fusion will require many more technological developments before it can fulfil its promise of delivering power to the grid.
Wealthy and powerful people, such as the CEOs of giant technology companies, can strongly influence how new technology is developed. For example, there are many different technological ways to perform nuclear fusion. But the particular route to fusion that is useful for meeting the energy demands of AI might not be the one that’s ideal for meeting people’s general energy needs.
Innovators often take for granted that their work will produce ideal social outcomes. If fusion can be made to work at scale, it could make a valuable contribution to decarbonising our energy supplies as the world seeks to tackle the climate crisis.
However, the humanitarian promises of both fusion and AI often seem to be sidelined in favour of scientific innovation and progress. Indeed, when looking at those invested in these technologies, it is worth asking who actually benefits from them.
Will investment in fusion for AI purposes enable its wider take-up as a clean technology to replace polluting fossil fuels? Or will a vision for the technology propagated by powerful tech companies restrict its use for other purposes?
It can sometimes feel as if innovation is itself the goal, with much less consideration of the wider impact. This vision has echoes of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s motto of “move fast and break things”, where short-term losses are accepted in pursuit of a future vision that will later justify the means.
Sophie Cogan receives funding from the EPSRC Fusion Centre for Doctoral Training.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martina Egedusevic, PhD Candidate, Impact Fellow (Green Futures Solutions), University of Exeter
Think of flood prevention and you might imagine huge concrete dams, levees or the shiny Thames barrier. But some of the most powerful tools for reducing flood risk are far more natural and widely recognisable: woodlands and green spaces. Trees offer much more than beauty and oxygen. Here’s how trees help to protect us from floods.
1. Intercepting rainfall
Trees and green spaces hold the key to protecting us against flooding. When rain falls on a forest, trees play a vital role in managing water flow. The canopy of a forest acts like a giant umbrella, catching and holding rainwater before it hits the ground.
This slows down how quickly rain reaches the soil, allowing water to gradually seep into the earth instead of rushing over the ground and straight into rivers and watercourses. This delayed water flow can reduce peak water levels in rivers during heavy storms, helping to prevent flash floods.
One of us (Martina) was involved in a two-year study, which has not been peer reviewed, that used sensor equipment to measure the speed and level of surface water at various locations along two streams in the Menstrie catchment area in Scotland: one with greater tree cover and another with less.
The stream with more trees appeared to have consistently reduced flow discharges compared with the more barren stream. This suggests that young forests may be able to dramatically reduce water runoff during rainfall, potentially preventing water from overwhelming streams and rivers.
As trees grow and mature, their effect on water management could become even more significant. This study adds to a growing body of evidence that shows forests offer a natural defence against floods.
Trees are one of our best allies in adapting to the increasing risks posed by climate change. Trees also remove water from catchments via evapotranspiration, whereby moisture evaporates from the surface of the soil and is released from the plant’s leaves and other surfaces.
Importantly, these processes aren’t just relevant at the scale of rural, catchments. We can use the benefits of trees and plants in our towns and cities as targeted small-scale interventions.
2. Keeping rivers clean
Trees help keep rivers clean and healthy. When there are no trees, rain can wash away a lot of soil (and pollutants) into rivers. This might lead to them having a reduced capacity to convey water. But tree roots act like anchors, binding the soil in place and preventing it from flowing into rivers.
This keeps the rivers clear and stops sedimentation, helping them cope with flood waters better. That, in turn, can prevent flooding and maintain river capacity to protect against future flooding.
In places like the Menstrie catchment, planting trees around rivers helps trap dirt and sediment in the upper parts of the river, keeping the lower parts cleaner.
Ploughed ground can better capture sediment across the catchment because the plough lines act as barriers. They keep the sediment in place more efficiently than other techniques, such as hand-screefing (when someone clears a small spot of ground by hand to plant a tree) and excavator mounding (a process that uses a machine to build little hills to help trees grow better in wet areas), which were less successful in containing the sediment.
Evidence shows that trees are essential for long-term soil stabilisation. Cultivation methods and forestry practices therefore play a crucial role in managing erosion and sediment flow.
3. Absorbing and storing water like sponges
Trees improve the soil’s ability to soak up water. Their roots channel deep into the ground, creating preferential flow paths that allow water to absorb into the soil profile, rather than run off on the surface. This process helps reduce the amount of water rushing towards rivers and streams after a heavy rainstorm, which is a major factor in slowing the flow of water and reducing flooding.
How trees are planted, the slope of the land and the type of soil all affect how much water runs off during rainfall. Different planting techniques affect water runoff differently depending on the amount of rain.
During floods, some areas with trees planted (that includes plots with plough cultivation and excavation mounding) have less water runoff compared with unplanted areas without trees.
4. Reducing surface runoff
When heavy rain falls on bare land, water runs off quickly, which can cause floods. Trees, with their roots and fallen leaves, slow this down by helping the ground soak up more water.
This reduces how much water flows into rivers all at once, helping to prevent floods. Planting trees using different layouts, densities and patterns can make this even more effective by helping trees grow better and absorb more water, thereby reducing runoff.
5. Stopping floodwaters
In Somerset, England tree planting projects along rivers, such as those under the Environment Agency’s initiative, have played a crucial role in reducing flood risks.
Since 2020, almost 30,000 trees and shrubs were planted across multiple sites to help slow water flow and protect communities vulnerable to flooding. These trees were strategically placed along riverbanks, including in the Parrett catchment in Somerset, an area known to be prone to flooding.
Underground, tree roots drink up lots of water, slowing how quickly the rainwater flows. And when floodwater hits a forest, the tree trunks act like a natural barrier or wall, slowing the water down so it doesn’t rush all at once to other areas and cause bigger floods. By planning and planting forests to build climate resilience, these positive effects can become even stronger.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Martina Egedusevic receives funding from the Scottish Forestry Trust.
Daniel Green works for Heriot-Watt University as an Assistant Professor in Nature-based Solutions. He is also a Research Associate at the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh.
Lucy Letby, a former neonatal nurse, was convicted after two trials of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Sentenced to life imprisonment following a case which many believe was built on circumstantial evidence, Letby has consistently maintained her innocence.
In a recent interview on LBC, the UK government’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, was asked for his opinion on those questioning the safety of Letby’s convictions.
Streeting’s reply urged campaigners to place their faith in the judicial and appellate processes to identify and correct their mistakes, if any. He added that there was no purpose in campaigning as it would have no impact and that if people insisted on doing so, they should do it “quietly”.
But my research shows that Streeting’s comments are not reflective of the broader history of miscarriages of justice.
Wes Streeting on Lucy Letby’s conviction.
Letby’s first trial was preceded by the publication of a report by the Royal Statistical Society in September 2022 detailing how statistical issues in the investigation of suspected murders in medical settings can contribute to causing miscarriages of justice. It drew attention to the case of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk who was convicted in circumstances which shared striking similarities with the Letby case.
Almost six months after Letby’s conviction in August 2023, the New Yorker magazine published an article challenging the prosecution’s account of events. And a body called Science on Trial, which calls out “problematic science”, also began raising questions. This sparked further scrutiny from journalist Peter Hitchens, who continues to express his doubts in the press.
National publications, radio programmes and TV broadcasts featuring prominent medical experts have also raised doubts about the evidence used at trial.
Lucy Letby. Cheshire Constabulary
Politicians, like David Davis, began voicing concerns both inside and outside parliament, intensifying the debate around the safety of Letby’s conviction.
The Letby campaign stands out as an alleged miscarriage of justice because there are very few cases in which so many people have moved so quickly, and so publicly, to raise concerns.
Lessons from history
Miscarriages of justice are not new and are often very difficult to put right. The history of miscarriages of justice is littered with failed appeals and unsuccessful applications submitted by prisoners to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body now responsible for investigating and referring them back to the Court of Appeal.
For example, Andrew Malkinson spent 17 years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit. Even after DNA evidence excluded him as the perpetrator, his case was essentially blocked from proceeding to appeal by the very system designed to identify such errors. Had it not been for sustained public campaigning and an investigation spearheaded by the legal charity Appeal, his conviction would probably not have been quashed.
Streeting’s argument that “there is no purpose in a campaign” overlooks the effect organised calls for justice have had. Campaigns like those for the Birmingham Six – in which six men spent 16 years in prison for a crime of which they were entirely innocent – led to significant reforms. These include the establishment of the CCRC itself. Without public scrutiny and outcry, these changes would not have been achieved.
My research shows that an important goal of justice campaigns is to “gain a voice” – to raise questions, build support and influence outcomes. This can sometimes lead to convictions being overturned. These campaigns are typically led by the prisoner’s family, whose fight to be heard is often a long and arduous journey.
Some families eventually manage to engage journalists who help them gain a voice in the mainstream media. This oxygen of publicity may, in turn, attract the attention of those whose intervention might further strengthen the campaign, such as specialist experts, lawyers and other professionals.
These individuals may lend their knowledge, skills and expertise to a case and sometimes even go public with their concerns. This often pressures people in positions of authority to respond.
The “campaigning voice” can also draw the attention of investigative journalists who specialise in re-examining alleged miscarriages of justice. When they take interest, their thorough and often obsessive work can uncover new evidence, sometimes strong enough to convince the Court of Appeal to overturn a conviction.
The judiciary itself has acknowledged the transformative role of such journalists. But it’s important to note that families usually have to wage a long and loud campaign before reaching this point.
Why the Letby case is different
Although Letby’s parents have stuck by her from the start, they have rarely spoken publicly.
In this case, the voices shouting the loudest, and refusing to be quiet, belong to eminent statisticians, epidemiologists, neonatologists, pediatricians and biochemical engineers. These are the types of people that most miscarriage campaigns spend years trying to attract. The sheer number speaking out is unprecedented.
So too is the swift involvement of John Sweeney, a journalist who specialises in investigating what researchers call “no crime miscarriages”. These are cases where people are convicted for crimes that never happened.
The speed with which these professionals and others have raised doubts about the Letby convictions is highly unusual, especially given the severity of the convictions. My work shows that people convicted of especially horrific crimes often struggle to establish campaigns that question whether the justice system got it wrong.
While it’s now widely accepted that juries, judges and the CCRC can make mistakes, justice systems tend to fiercely protect their decisions and reputations in such cases. Although no one can at this time say for certain whether or not Letby’s convictions are unsafe, research shows that public campaigns – and campaigning loudly – can make a difference.
Sam Poyser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Athalie Redwood-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Performance Analysis of Sport, Nottingham Trent University
Regular workouts may help lessen the pain of those dreadful mornings.PintoArt/ Shutterstock
Most of us have been there: a night of fun turns into a morning of regret – complete with a pounding headache, nausea and fatigue.
While there are plenty of supposed hangover “cures” out there – from eating a greasy breakfast to the ill-advised “hair-of-the-dog” – a recent paper suggests that regular exercise may be the key to alleviating these dreadful mornings.
The study, published in the journal Addictive Behaviours, involved 1,676 undergraduate students who had experienced at least one hangover in the past three months. All participants did at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity per week. They completed online questionnaires assessing their alcohol consumption patterns, physical activity levels and the frequency and severity of hangover symptoms. Activity levels were scored by calculating the intensity of the activity against the number of hours.
The findings indicated a significant association between physical activity and hangover symptoms. Unsurprisingly, people who consumed more alcohol experienced hangovers more frequently and with greater severity. But, these associations were reduced in people who engaged in vigorous physical activity (such as running) – suggesting that higher levels of exercise may reduce the severity of hangover symptoms.
While the study only established a correlation between exercise and reduced hangover severity, several mechanisms may help explain why physical activity could mitigate hangover symptoms.
1. Modulates pain response
Hangovers often cause physical pain, such as headaches and muscle aches, due to several factors. Alcohol leads to dehydration, which affects the way the blood vessels function and reduces fluid levels around the brain. This can trigger headaches.
Some studies have also noted that the concentration of alcohol you have in your blood after a night of drinking is also linked to common hangover symptoms, such as pain.
But exercise triggers the release of endorphins – hormones produced by the brain which serve as natural painkillers. Regular exercise may even elevate your baseline endorphin levels. This could potentially lead to a lower perception of pain and discomfort during a hangover.
2. Better quality sleep
Hangovers tend to be accompanied by poor quality sleep. Alcohol reduces REM sleep, which is the part of the sleep cycle that helps the brain rest and recover. Drinking can also make you wake up more throughout the night because alcohol causes your body to lose fluids – making you need to use the bathroom more often.
But regular exercise is linked to better sleep patterns by helping to regulate the circadian rhythm. Overall, physical activity can improve sleep duration, sleep quality and reduce the number of times you wake up during the night. This may in turn help you get a better night’s sleep after drinking – which could improve your overall recovery from a hangover.
3. Improves metabolism
Regular physical activity contributes to better metabolic health, which may facilitate the efficient processing of alcohol.
While the liver primarily metabolises alcohol, having a good metabolic rate can help clear alcohol and its byproducts from the system more effectively.
Exercise also improves circulation, which may also aid in flushing out acetaldehyde. This is a toxic chemical released by alcohol when the body metabolises it. Acetaldehyde significantly contributes to hangover symptoms.
4. Reduces inflammation
Alcohol triggers an inflammatory response (the body’s defence mechanism that works against harmful pathogens and substances) which can exacerbate hangover symptoms.
It releases chemicals called cytokines that promote inflammation, which helps fight off infections or injuries. However, in the case of a hangover, this inflammation can worsen symptoms such as headaches, muscle aches, fatigue and sensitivity to light and sound. The body’s heightened immune response amplifies these discomforts, making the hangover feel more intense.
But exercise has well-documented anti-inflammatory properties as it stimulates the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines. This means regular exercisers could experience less inflammation-related discomfort during hangovers.
The hangover cure?
It’s important to clarify that while exercise might help make hangovers more bearable, it’s not a cure. The most effective way to prevent a hangover is to drink in moderation – or avoid it altogether. But for those who choose to indulge, integrating regular physical activity into your lifestyle might just make hangovers a little less debilitating.
However, there are a few things that aren’t quite clear from the study. For example, it isn’t clear how soon before a night of drinking you should work out to see benefits on hangover severity. This makes it difficult to say whether regular exercisers have less severe hangovers, or whether having worked out before a night out helps manage hangover symptoms.
The study was also conducted using undergraduate students, whose drinking and physical activity levels may differ from older adults. Research in different age groups will be important to see if the benefits are similar.
It’s also crucial to distinguish between the benefits of consistent exercise and the impulse to work out while hungover. The latter can be counterproductive, as the body is already dehydrated and under stress. This may make your hangover feel worse.
Instead, try doing gentle, low-effort activities during a hangover – such as a walk or yoga. This may help boost your mood.
While this recent study’s findings shouldn’t be seen as providing an excuse to overindulge, it does highlight the ways that exercise equips the body to better handle the aftermath of a night of drinking – potentially making those rough mornings a bit more manageable.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Consumers of western media could be forgiven for supposing that Ukraine, the state whose sovereignty was violated so brutally with the Russian invasion of February 2022, enjoys unstinting support from its western neighbour Poland. The support of the Polish government has been unambiguous. Donations of military equipment and humanitarian support for refugees have been second to none in Europe.
The election of a new government at the end of 2023 made no discernible difference to the Polish commitment. Antipathy towards Russia in Poland has strong roots, dating back even before the days when much of the country (including Warsaw) was formally incorporated into the Romanovs’ Russian empire.
Observers in the west take it for granted that the pro-Ukrainian policies of successive Polish governments – endorsed by the Catholic churches – reflect views shared by citizens throughout the country.
But after more than two years of war, as I found during a recent research trip, doubts are being voiced in some segments of society.
Farmers have been angry for years. Ukraine has rich soils and its agribusiness is free from EU regulations. In the exceptional conditions created by the invasion, with the government desperately in need of revenue, Ukraine has been allowed to export its cheap grain to the EU. This has undermined the market for Polish farmers. Some Poles event believe that, since much Ukrainian farmland is owned by foreign capital, the prolongation of the war has been orchestrated by the west for economic reasons.
Similar arguments can be heard concerning energy. The end of cheap gas from the Russian Federation promises a bonanza for the producers of alternative supplies, notably in the United States at the expense of higher prices for Polish households. I also heard in plenty of conversations that Poland is the only ally of Ukraine to provide military hardware free of charge – whereas other Nato states insist on full payment or offer credits that will theoretically have to be repaid one day.
The resentments run deep and they affect large sections of the population. Why do I have to wait months for my hospital appointment, people ask – is it because of increased demand for health services from the millions of Ukrainian refugees? Why should my taxes pay for generous financial grants to Ukrainians who turn up at the border, claim the cash, and promptly return home?
A tangled history
Most educated citizens dismiss such allegations with scorn. Those who complain and exaggerate isolated abuses are often written off as gullible victims of Russian propaganda. But Poles are unlikely dupes. Monuments to communist crimes are everywhere – above all the Katyń massacres of 1940, when the Soviet security forces murdered thousands of Polish officers. More recently, many Poles still suspect the Kremlin’s complicity in the plane crash that killed their then president, Lech Kaczyński in Smolensk in 2010.
Yet hatred of Russia does not translate into unconditional support for Ukraine.
The enduring reason for friction between the two states has to do with diverging interpretations of violence which took place during and after the second world war. Ukrainian ministers have the undiplomatic habit of pointing out that large areas of present-day Poland were formerly occupied by Ukrainians. According to the historical ethno-linguistic and religious criteria generally considered central in the formation of peoples, Ukraine might indeed have a stronger claim to sections of the Polish Carpathians than it has to Crimea or Donbas.
Does this help explain why the Polish government upholds the sanctity of Ukraine’s border with Russia? They want Ukraine’s border with their country to be equally sacrosanct.
The typical Polish response to Ukrainian nationalist goading is to point out that Poles used to form the majority in most towns of western Ukraine – and that Lviv itself was a Polish city until Stalin redrew the borders in 1944 and the Polish population was deported westwards. These eastern borderlands are known to Poles as the Kresy. They are the focus of strong emotions and mythology. The Kresy is imagined as a harmonious realm in which, for many centuries, cultivated Poles ruled benignly over all other nationalities.
This multiculturalism came to an abrupt end in the 1940s. These days, Poles with family roots in Volhynia and Galicia, much of which is now in western Ukraine, are incensed by Kyiv’s refusal to admit that Ukrainian nationalists were responsible for the ethnic cleansing of the Polish population. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, recently made it clear that Poland’s continued support for admitting Ukraine to the EU will depend on coming to terms with this dark past.
Western complicity
During my recent visit, I was sometimes asked why the BBC and other influential western media never probed behind the slick public face of Volodymyr Zelensky’s team to report on the real conditions and opinions of ordinary Ukrainians. Instead, Russians are demonised and Ukrainians hailed for their “European values” and their sacrifices on behalf of the west.
Coverage in Polish state media conveys a similar message – but I found many citizens have become sceptical. There is pity for conscripts, sorrow for the loss of young lives on both sides and fear for where all this dehumanising violence is leading. But few of the people I spoke with believed that Russians are the only party violating the Geneva Conventions.
Often, the conversation turned to Boris Johnson. I was asked to explain why the then prime minister advised Zelensky in April 2022 that Ukraine should continue the fighting. Did Johnson, as has often been rumoured, sabotage proposals for a negotiated peace carefully drawn up in Istanbul shortly before his visit? Was it the spontaneous whim of a western politician who knew nothing about regional history, a clown playing macho games with Zelensky for the sake of his own image? Did he not care at all about the hundreds of thousands who would suffer and die if this war continued? Was he pursuing a devious strategy agreed with EU leaders and Nato partners, above all Washington?
I did not have answers to any of these questions.
Chris Hann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Considered one of the great composers of the 20th century, the deeply expressive Béla Bartók synthesised elements of folk music of Hungarian and related cultures into classical forms, producing a style that was both individual and influential.
Through Bartók’s music, powerful elements of local folk melodies are performed and heard in concert halls worldwide. For the 80th anniversary of the composer’s death coming up in 2025, the University of Plymouth’s Musica Viva – of which I am founder and director – is planning a series of concerts celebrating the notion of the “music of home” as brought to life by Bartók, by including one of his pivotal works in every concert. His Piano Sonata, String Quartet No. 3, String Quartet No. 5 and Music for Strings, Percussion and Celesta will all be performed by leading artists.
From the start, the young Bartók, born in 1881, displayed a fascination with music, and his widowed mother encouraged his musical gifts. When the family moved to Pozsony, a former region of Hungary that now lies mostly within Slovakia, he began a formal musical education and attended concerts for the first time.
As an 18-year-old student of piano and composition at the Budapest Conservatory, Bartók immersed himself in the musical dramas of Wagner and the orchestral works of Liszt. But his primary focus was the piano, and he became known as a pianist of extraordinary abilities, playing the music of Chopin, Liszt and Robert Schumann.
During his last years as a student, nationalist currents in Hungary – which had been suppressed since the uprising in 1848-1849 – became resurgent. Caught up in this movement, Bartók devoted considerable thought to issues of a national music.
It is not surprising that under this influence and that of the music of Richard Strauss, his first major composition in 1903 was a vast symphonic poem called Kossuth, a Hungarian “Hero’s Life” – whose ten tableaux depict events of the 1948-49 war of independence. This work was followed by the Liszt-inspired Rhapsody for Piano and Orchestra in 1904.
Bartók’s interest in folk music grew to the point at which he and his friend and fellow composer Zoltán Kodály travelled throughout central Europe, Turkey, and north Africa to collect folk melodies. Bartók wrote five books and many articles on folk music.
He considered his most interesting finds to be from isolated Hungarian communities living among the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains, where he encountered and recorded authentic, untainted Magyar folk music. His fascination with the unbridled spirit of this music helped him gradually develop a compositional style in which he fused folk elements with highly developed techniques of classical music more intimately than had ever been done before.
Between the two world wars Bartók performed as a concert pianist, touring Britain, the US and the former USSR, and was prolific as a composer. Elements of his style include melodic lines derived from eastern European folk music; powerful forward-leaning rhythms in irregular meters with off-beat accents; strong control of form; and harmonies which, although primarily focused on one key, often include elements of multiple keys thereby creating a sense of musical tension.
Paramount among his piano works is his only Piano Sonata, written in 1926, which is also his largest composition for solo piano. It was composed during a particularly prolific year during which he also composed his First Piano Concerto, Out of Doors Suite and Nine Little Piano Pieces – all works which he included in his own public performances.
The Sonata is in three movements and follows a classic sonata form – a lively first movement, a slower second movement and an energetic finale in which the lively main theme recurs in different guises. The full resources of the piano are used in creating a wide spectrum of expression, from incisive detached clusters of notes to smoothly flowing lyrical melodic lines.
Throughout, the music is inspired by Bartók’s ethnomusicological (social and cultural) research. Although the themes are not folk melodies per se, they imitate their style in terms of melodic shaping, searing dynamics, driving rhythmic features and harmonic content. The piano is used in new percussive ways that often seem a vivid portrayal of folk passions. At the time this was groundbreaking.
Bartók’s contribution to the musical repertoire is immense. He composed six String Quartets, Sonata for Two Pianos and Percussion, a large canon of solo piano music as well as chamber music, and an opera, Bluebeard’s Castle. The Concerto for Orchestra, three Piano Concerti, and the Violin Concerto are all masterpieces in large-scale musical forms.
Bartók emigrated to the US in 1940 and found temporary employment at Columbia University. His health deteriorated along with his financial situation, although his friends Joseph Szigeti and Fritz Reiner arranged for the Koussevitzky Foundation to commission him to write the Concerto for Orchestra in 1943 and the Sonata for Solo Violin in 1944, which provided temporary relief from a dismal situation.
Bartok died on September 26, 1945, with the score of his Viola Concerto unfinished, but he left behind an unparalleled canon of music that is deeply expressive and vital to our musical understanding today.
Robert Taub does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The show demonstrates that young children are capable, curious and competent.(Blue Ant Media)
There is an evolutionary need for parents to protect their children from harm. One of the most difficult and important aspects of parenting is allowing children to take the necessary risks which enable them to grow.
TVO’s Old Enough!, based on a hit Japanese TV series, helps parents consider the balance between protection and creating space for children to develop independence and resilience. It shows very young children being provided the responsibility of running errands seemingly on their own.
It should be noted there are protections in place, for example as seen in Episode 1. Viewers see four-year-old Parker with supports for crossing streets, camera crews and shop keepers who are prepared for the child’s visit. It is not recommended that very young children complete errands unsupervised.
However, the show demonstrates that young children are capable, curious and competent. It encourages us to consider how we can support children in developing their confidence, self-worth and trust, and help them become independent and resilient while ensuring they feel supported and loved.
Independence begins with love
Old Enough! exemplifies many insights for parents about nurturing relationships with their children to support their emerging independence.
Secure attachment develops when a child consistently experiences a loving, attuned and responsive emotional connection, fostering a sense of trust and safety, and learning that their emotional needs will be met.
This is at the heart of raising independent and resilient children. Every experience shapes a child’s brain and influences gene expression. The emotional bond that develops from secure attachment provides children reassurance to take risks and try new things on their own. This emotional security enables them to confidently explore the world, knowing they have a secure base to return to.
In Old Enough!, viewers see glimpses of this trusting and loving relationship with five-year-old Simon and his dad David in Episode 3. Simon’s dads, David and Stephane, have different views around how much freedom Simon should have, with David feeling more protective. The episode shows Simon shopping on his own at Toronto’s St. Lawrence Market, with David outside.
Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 3.
When the bags are too heavy, Simon drags them outside to give to David, sharing he was “dropping off a load because it was too heavy.” Simon’s dad empathically sighs in agreement.
Simon knows his dad will be waiting for him. There is no concern of where to find his dad, or apprehension his dad would be upset Simon hadn’t finished, or had taken too long. Simon flops on the sidewalk and shares his solo adventure.
His father, clearly anxious, finds a way through his own feelings to ask Simon if he will go back in to finish. Simon proudly beams yes! Upon return, he is greeted with pride and a big hug. Simon is proud of himself, stating “now I know how to shop by myself,” shining with confidence and resilience.
That Simon knows the world is safe and trustworthy was evident in his secure internal working model. This is seen in his willingness to confidently ask others for help, knowing it will be OK if he fails. His reflection “I was not even scared,” emphasizes the confidence in his relationships and secure base from which he explores the world.
Love supports courage to take on tasks
Old Enough! also shows everyday moments of independence parents can foster by allowing children to complete simple, age-appropriate tasks.
Love and autonomy go hand in hand. This emotional foundation provides children the courage to take on tasks, solve problems and struggle through challenges. Love is not just a form of emotional support; it is also a tool for growth.
When children are provided with opportunities to face small challenges, make decisions and manage frustration, we help them build the resilience to handle bigger challenges later in life. This approach reinforces that their loving caregiver trusts and believes in them.
Children who know they are loved unconditionally feel secure in their worth and are more likely to navigate the complexities of life with a sense of inner stability. This emotional foundation prevents them from relying heavily on external validation because they have internalized their worth and value.
As children grow, having a balanced view of themselves, their relationships and the world prepares them to manage peer pressure, bullying and setbacks, reinforcing the understanding of their worth isn’t determined by others’ opinions.
Parents’ own attachment experiences
Parents can support their children’s journey toward independence and resilience by encouraging small acts of autonomy.
Letting children make their own choices, take on responsibilities and engage in problem-solving helps build their confidence. At the same time, parents should be emotionally available, offering comfort and support without taking over. This balance of trust and love gives children the necessary tools to become both independent and resilient, knowing they can face challenges and are always supported.
Parents who want to do more to support their children’s autonomy while maintaining a close connection often find that making changes can be difficult. This is especially the case if they have not experienced secure attachment, unconditional love or have a history of relational trauma.
Managing the real fear and anxiety of stepping back, perhaps fearing your child will feel unloved, can feel incredibly challenging. In Old Enough! such feelings are expressed by Ohelya’s mom, Arfina, in Episode 8, who shares she had to grow up faster than most of her friends and she wants to protect her daughter from this experience, allowing her to enjoy childhood.
Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 8.
For parents, it’s important to separate your fears and anxieties from what is real for your child, and ensure your history and experiences do not negatively impact your child’s opportunities for growth and development. Be kind and patient with yourself and your child during this process.
Wait: allow them the time and space to explore and play independently.
Wonder: reflect on their needs and your responses.
By acknowledging and managing your own fears and anxieties, you create space to see your child truly sparkle.
Learn and know who your child is, what their strengths are and what they need support with. It’s never to late to let children show you what they are capable of and reveal their amazing self. With consistency, you will build a deep meaningful connection built on trust and love, which will last a lifetime.
Nikki Martyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew William Jones, NERC Independent Research Fellow in Climate Science, University of East Anglia
Fires have long been a natural part of forest ecosystems, but something is changing. Our new study shows that forest fires have become more widespread and severe amid global heating, particularly in the high northern latitudes such as Canada and Siberia where fires are most sensitive to hotter, drier conditions.
The implications of this are alarming, not just for the ecosystems affected or the cities engulfed by smoke downwind, but for the planet’s ability to store carbon and regulate the climate. The trend we discovered contrasts with declining fire extent in savannah grasslands, which may reflect the expansion of farming and changing rainfall patterns.
We established the leading causes of forest fires in different parts of the world using an AI algorithm. It grouped forest regions into distinct zones with similar fire patterns and underlying causes, uncovering the worrying extent to which climate change is fuelling the expansion of forest fires in Earth’s high northern latitudes.
More fires in ‘extratropical’ forests
Since 2001, emissions from fires in forests outside of the tropics, like parts of the boreal forest in the far north of North America and Eurasia, have nearly tripled. This rise is largely the result of hotter, drier weather occurring more frequently, combined with forests growing more efficiently in places where the cold once stunted their growth.
Climate change is creating ideal conditions for larger, more intense fires, which accelerate climate change in turn by releasing more carbon to the atmosphere. In fact, we found that global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased by 60% over the past two decades. The largest contributions come from fires in Siberia and western North America.
A conifer forest in north-western Canada after the 2023 fire season in which more than 6,000 fires burned through 15 million hectares. Stefan Doerr
This trend shifts the focus of forest fire emissions from tropical forests, where fires set to make room for farmland have long contributed carbon to the atmosphere. Conservation policies have reduced deforestation rates since the early 2000s in some regions, particularly Amazonia. By contrast, increasing fires in northern forests, such as the taiga – the forest of the cold sub-arctic region – are driven by changing climate conditions and generally started by lightning, which makes them harder to prevent.
Not only is the area affected by fires expanding but the fires themselves are growing more severe and releasing more carbon, according to our new findings. This corresponds with an earlier study that found fires are doing more damage to ecosystems globally than in the past. Fires are burning through drier and more flammable vegetation as global temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent.
In northern forests, more severe fires can burn deep into the soil and release carbon that has accumulated over centuries. Forests can remain net carbon emitters for decades after burning and the more severe fires become, the longer it takes forests to rebound and recapture carbon lost during the fire.
What does this mean for the planet?
The steep rise in fire emissions from forests outside the tropics is a clear signal that the capacity of Earth’s forest to store carbon is at increasing risk.
Forests, particularly in northern regions, absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere. But as fires expand and become more severe, these vital carbon sinks are weakened. This undermines the global effort to tackle climate change as forests offset emissions from human activities that burn fossil fuels.
Forest fires, long considered part of the natural carbon cycle, are increasingly driven by human-caused climate change. Yet, international reporting standards don’t differentiate between “natural” levels of forest fire emissions and the higher emissions we’re seeing due to climate change.
This allows excess fire emissions caused by humans to fall outside the scope of national carbon budgets tracked by organisations like the United Nations. Gaps emerge between the carbon emissions we think we’re managing and the actual amount that’s passing between the land and the atmosphere.
What drives fires in different regions varies, so addressing this growing threat requires tailored approaches. Outside of the tropics, proactive forest management is essential. Carefully managed fires and thinning out vegetation can mean fires ultimately cause less damage when they do ignite. Monitoring vegetation growth, alongside fire-favourable weather conditions, can help identify and prioritise areas for intervention.
In tropical forests, reducing ignitions (especially during droughts) and preventing forest fragmentation is key to protecting these ecosystems and their carbon stocks. This may help prevent the more extreme fires that turn tropical forests from carbon sinks into sources.
Increasing fires are a symptom of climate change
Limiting the burning of fossil fuels is central to minimising future fire risk. Without drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, more severe and widespread forest fires are likely, with increasing damage to ecosystems, biodiversity and the climate.
Our study also highlighted the importance of updating international reporting standards on carbon emissions. As forest fires become more closely linked to human-driven climate change, it’s crucial that fire emissions be included in national carbon budgets to provide a more accurate picture of the planet’s carbon fluxes.
There is also a risk of overestimating how much carbon is stored by reforesting areas, especially outside the tropics. Many carbon offset schemes rely on planting new trees or delaying the harvest of existing ones to absorb CO₂, but if the growing threat of forest fires isn’t properly accounted for, these projects could fail to deliver the carbon savings they promise.
Forest fires are no longer just a natural occurrence. As they shift north and intensify, these fires are a clear symptom of human-caused climate change.
It’s essential to recognise the growing role that fires play in the carbon cycle. By doing so, we can better manage fire risks, safeguard forests and ensure a more resilient future for the planet.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Matthew William Jones receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
Stefan H Doerr receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the FirEUrisk project funded via the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003890.
Crystal A. Kolden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was first published in our World Update newsletter. To receive a weekly briefing on global affairs and international relations direct to your inbox, please subscribe to the newsletter.
Vladimir Putin’s regular threats about his nuclear arsenal have focused minds on the existential threat his nuclear weapons still represent. But it’s the volatility of the situation in the Middle East that has added a worrying degree of uncertainty to the international situation.
A year after the brutal Hamas attack on Israel – and after months of tit-for-tat missile attacks between Israel and Iran – Israel has commenced a ground invasion of Lebanon which pits the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) directly against Iranian proxy Hezbollah.
At the same time, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing an ever more drastic campaign against Hamas in Gaza. It is now reportedly planning to expel all residents from the north of the enclave in order to establish a military zone there. Meanwhile it has ramped up its attacks on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and against Iranian proxies in Syria.
All-out war between Israel and Iran remains unthinkable, even as questions are raised about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And yet, as any historian will tell you, the wrong combination of miscalculation, errors of strategic judgement and failures of diplomacy to cause things to escalate with alarming rapidity.
In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published a model of conflict escalation which is generally accepted as the best study of how disagreements can develop into disastrous warfare. It maps, in nine stages, how a conflict can develop from tension between antagonists to a situation into which the warring parties plunge “together into the abyss”.
Nine stages of confict escalation. Graphic by Swinnall, original from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation nach Glasl.svg, CC BY-NC-SA
Matthew Powell, a historian of warfare, compares Glasl’s model to the situation between Israel and Iran. He assesses the two antagonists have have reached stage seven, “where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained”.
Powell believes that both sides presently seem keen to remain at arms length for fear that a direct conflict could plunge them – and their allies – into the aforementioned abyss.
Now, more than ever, it’s vital to be informed about the important issues affecting global stability. Sign up to receive our weekly World Update newsletter. Every Thursday we’ll you expert analysis of the big stories making international headlines.
For longtime Middle East analyst Paul Rogers, one of the key issues governing the likely future of the conflict is likely to be the domestic politics of Israel. He has watched the country move steadily to the right over more than 50 years, to the extent that the Netanyahu government is now heavily influenced by religious nationalists. Netanyahu has depended for two years on the support of some of the more extreme elements on Israel’s political fringe in order to stay in power.
These hardliners, Rogers writes, are willing to subvert Israeli democracy itself in order to realise their dream of “Messianic Judaism”. A byproduct of this dream would be to push the Palestinian population out of Gaza, which would be a disaster for regional stability. The irony is that by making war on Lebanon, Netanyahu has managed to improve his standing with the Israeli people and is no longer as dependent on political hawks.
Of course, what may be good for Netanyahu is a disaster for Lebanon, where the death toll is rising daily and more than one-quarter of the population has been displaced.
While Israel’s air force has launched 140 airstrikes across the country, most of the activity has focused on the border areas in the south of the country, where the IDF is reported to be clearing villages, perhaps in anticipation for setting up a buffer zone there.
Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon as at October 16 2024. Institute for the Study of War
Over the past fortnight there have been repeated incidents where the IDF have – apparently deliberately – targeted units of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). This peacekeeping force was set up in 1978 and has the mandate to enforce the UN’s resolution to prevent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has demanded that Unifil move its peacekeepers out of the conflict zone, but so far the UN troops, led by France and Spain, have refused to leave their posts.
Vanessa Newby and Chiara Ruffa, with input and advice from former senior Unifil political and civil affairs officer John Molloy, (formerly of the Irish Defence Forces) have been tracking the incidents. Most recently they involved an IDF tank firing on a Unifil watchtower and has resulted in a growing number of casualties among the peacekeepers.
Newby and Ruffa believe that Israel wants to remove Unifil from southern Lebanon because it wants to carry out its operations without the scrutiny of an international observer. They also speculate that the sheer number of forces being moved by the IDF into south Lebanon indicates that Israel may be planning to occupy a swath of territory beyond what its military has described as a “limited, localised, and targeted” operation.
Meanwhile tensions are rising between Hezbollah and other sections of Lebanese society. We’ve seen this before, and it has never gone well, writes Mohamad El Kari, who has witnessed the challenges to security in Lebanon firsthand as a translator.
He fears that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will kick off a bout of factional infighting that could seriously destabilise a country that is already showing signs of serious social and political instability. In some areas, Kari writes, people were dancing in the streets at the news of Nasrallah’s death. Not a good sign for Lebanon’s fragile stability.
All this talk of escalation had me reflecting on history. I grew up during the cold war under the shadow of the nuclear threat. As a schoolboy in the 1970s, I was taken to a nuclear bunker where, in the event of a nuclear attack on the UK, key personnel would have sheltered as they ran secure communications.
As a student in the 1980s, I shared a house with several women who would spend weekends at Greenham Common airbase where they protested against the presence of nuclear weapons there. I remember the gallows humour with which we greeted the government’s Protect and Survive campaign, which encouraged building makeshift nuclear shelters under the stairs.
The peace movement of the day adapted the campaign into the slogan “protest and survive” and the Raymond Briggs graphic novel When the Wind Blows darkly lampooned the government’s advice with its portrayal of an elderly couple following the government’s instructions with predictably tragic results.
In 1984, Britain was horrified by the BBC film, Threads, a docudrama based on the idea of a nuclear attack on Sheffield. The premise called for a confrontation between Nato and the Warsaw Pact after a US-sponsored coup in Iran. It showed how quickly an international crisis could degenerate into global nuclear conflict and, in turn, how quickly societal collapse was likely to follow.
Then in the 1990s the nuclear threat seemed to diminish. The collapse of the Soviet Union and treaties to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and decommission existing stockpiles meant that, for most of us anyway, the idea of a nuclear holocaust receded to almost nothing.
The BBC recently screened the film again, to mark its 40th anniversary, and has made it available for streaming on iPlayer. The Independent’s preview of the screening noted that the Doomsday Clock, which atomic scientists use to indicate how close the world is to nuclear disaster, is set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. The scientists said that conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, with the prospect the latter might spread across the Middle East had made the world a much more dangerous place in 2024. And so it has come to pass.
Philosopher Mark Lacy was shown the film as a schoolboy and doesn’t intend to watch it again. But he’s an expert in the changing nature of warfare and he has seen how conflicts can explode out of “accidents, miscalculations and errors of strategic judgement”.
He is concerned that, unlike in the cold war where events were largely controlled by “rational actors” who were all too aware of the potential for “mutually assured destruction” and made their calculations accordingly, today’s leaders may not act with the same circumspection. And this is what makes the world a much more dangerous place.
The latest edition of our podcast, The Conversation Weekly, focuses on the the Middle East question. Podcast host Gemma Ware speaks with two academic experts in Middle East politics, Amnon Aran and Mireille Rebeiz, to get a sense of what’s at stake for the region.
Right now, in provincial election campaigns across Canada, voters are trying to work out which political parties and local candidates might be their best representatives.
In British Columbia, the NDP and Conservative parties are running neck and neck ahead of this weekend’s election. In New Brunswick, the race between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives is equally tight. In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe’s lead over the NDP appears to be more comfortable.
In each of these elections — and in the important municipal elections that are also happening across the country in weeks and months ahead — voters face the task of working out which candidate is best equipped to serve as their representative.
In the work that our politicians do on our behalf — their legislative votes, their policy advocacy, their casework, their community service — we want them to behave in ways that reflect our policy attitudes and priorities.
In the first pathway, politicians represent their constituents’ preferences because they share those preferences — they agree with their constituents. We call this the “congruence” pathway.
In the second pathway, politicians represent their constituents’ preferences because they know those preferences and choose to represent them. This is the “knowledge” pathway.
Both pathways are thought to lead to the same destination: representation of constituents’ preferences by politicians.
But think for a moment about which pathway you would prefer for your representative to take: congruence or knowledge? Which option do you think provides the best representation for citizens?
We’ll tell you our own answers to these questions shortly. But first we need to understand just how different these pathways really are.
Measuring policy representation
In an upcoming article, our goal was to explore how well politicians perform on the congruence pathway and how many perform well on the knowledge pathway.
To answer these questions, we began with a very large survey of the Canadian public, asking more than 10,000 Canadians for their opinions on nine policy issues. These included gun control, immigration, trade with China, taxes, public transit investment and climate change — a wide variety of important policies.
We used this survey to make an estimate of the proportion of people who supported and opposed each policy statement across hundreds of municipalities.
Then, using the Canadian Municipal Barometer’s annual survey of municipal politicians, we asked politicians to guess the percentage of their constituents who support each policy statement. We also asked for each politician’s personal opinion on each statement.
These two surveys — one of the Canadian public, and the other of hundreds of Canadian municipal politicians — allowed us to measure and compare the two pathways.
Two pathways or one?
Let’s start with the good news: In general, politicians do a good job on both pathways. Across nine issues and hundreds of politicians, we found that nearly 60 per cent of politicians performed well on both pathways, and another 19 per cent performed well on at least one pathway.
The bad news is that politicians’ performance on both pathways is highly variable. On some policy issues, like gun control, nearly all politicians perform extremely well. On other issues, like immigration, politicians struggle.
But the most striking thing we discovered in our data was that the two pathways are closely related: Politicians who performed well on one pathway also tended to perform well on the other.
It turns out that these “pathways to representation” may not be very distinct after all.
Choosing your pathway
So, returning to our earlier question:
Which should you prefer? Should citizens choose politicians who represent their views through the congruence pathway or the knowledge pathway?
Our research suggests that most of the time, citizens don’t have to make the choice, because the two skills are so strongly connected. But suppose you did have to choose — what should you prioritize?
Personally, we’d choose congruence and would recommend focusing on finding a candidate who agrees with you on the things you care about, and support them.
Why prefer congruence? Because recent research shows that politicians struggle to think beyond their own beliefs when making guesses about their constituents’ attitudes. When politicians think about what their constituents want, they tend to assume that their constituents agree with them on various issues.
Our research has shown that they’re often right — congruence and knowledge are closely related. But this isn’t always the case, and politicians tend to think (much like the rest of us) that other people agree with them even when, sometimes, they don’t.
The good news is that politicians do tend to do reasonably well on both pathways, according our findings, so in real-world elections, you won’t typically be faced with this choice.
But when a political candidate comes to your door asking for your vote, here’s our advice: don’t quiz them about local public opinion, or ask them how often they’d conduct public opinion polls after they get elected.
Instead, ask them some questions about policy issues you care deeply about, and pick the candidate who shares your views.
You’ll be making your choices based on congruence — one of the two possible pathways to representation. But our research suggests that if your local representative aligns well with constituents, they’ll be a good performer on knowledge as well.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Many young women and girls report facing gender-based violence online. Appropriate responses need to be created within this dire landscape.(Shutterstock)
More and more of our lives are being spent on digital platforms. And, as we spend more time online, we are more vulnerable to a wide range of risks. This fact is particularly true for women and girls.
A 2024 global survey by Microsoft found that women are more likely than men to experience any type of risk online. And 25 per cent of teen girls reported experiencing sexual risks in their online lives, compared to 19 per cent of teen boys.
When online violence or abuse occurs to people because of their gender or gender presentation, it falls under the umbrella term gender-based online violence and abuse, also known as tech-facilitated gender-based violence. Unfortunately, incidents of this type of online violence seem to be increasing.
Appropriate responses need to be created within this dire landscape.
Some governments are creating policies to address gender-based online violence and abuse. For example, Australia has passed legislation mandating dating apps to update and enforce codes of conduct that address instances of sexual abuse.
The Canadian government tabled the Online Harms Act in February 2024, which, if passed, would introduce a regulatory framework that demands social media platforms moderate violent content. These legislative acts aim to hold digital platforms accountable for creating methods for reporting and deleting violent content by requiring them to assume full responsibility.
Governments must hold digital platforms accountable for the violence that happens on them, but are such approaches enough?
Our recent research suggests that some men might not even recognize if and how they are complicit in gender-based online violence. Cultural ideas, like rape myths, may influence their spheres of understanding. And, in these cases, they may not be compelled to follow a code of conduct set up by government or platform policy.
Governments must hold digital platforms accountable for the violence that happens on them, but it is also important to address prevalent narratives and myths about rape and sexual abuse. (Shutterstock)
Rape myths
Rape myths are prejudicial and false beliefs that shape societal attitudes towards gendered violence. Examples of such myths are seen, for instance, when blame is put on the victim, the rapist is excused, and the rape is minimized and even sometimes justified.
In our study, we took a validated psychological scale for measuring the presence of rape myths and adapted it to understand how myths about gender-based online violence might influence behaviours that cause it, or at least prevent people from intervening.
The rape myths acceptance scale shows the degrees to which people accept certain myths that normalize sexual violence (such as, “she was asking for it” or “he didn’t mean to”). This scale is used to show how taken-for-granted assumptions contribute to cultures where victims of sexual violence are blamed or subject to disbelief when they come forward.
We adapted the rape myth acceptance scale because responses to it can reveal the cultural narratives that normalize many forms of gendered violence.
Indeed, research on rape myth acceptance points to the fact that we cannot fully address the acts of gender-based violence without first addressing these narratives. And gender-based online violence and abuse is not an exception.
What we found
Once we had adapted the rape myths acceptance scale to account for gender-based online violence and abuse, we used it in a survey of 1,297 Canadian men between 18 and 30 years old.
We used a likert scale to determine the degree to which young men agreed with statements like “claims of online gender-based violence are often weaponized against men” or “people who post about gender are sexuality are looking to start arguments.” We found that certain toxic myths and cultural narratives are prevalent among some respondents.
We found that certain rape myths were prevalent among some respondents. (Shutterstock)
In particular, we found four myths that were more strongly endorsed: 1. It wasn’t really gender-based online abuse; 2. he didn’t mean to; 3. gender-based online abuse is a deviant event, and 4. she lied. These myths trivialize the impact of the violence, minimize the blame of those enacting the harm and discredit the voices of targets.
We noticed that as many as 30 per cent of our survey respondents agreed with many of these myths — a significant number of young Canadian men taking these regressive attitudes towards gender-based online violence.
As we looked to other research to explain the prevalence of these ideas, we also found that similar ideas are found in manosphere-related influencers — people like Andrew Tate, who are a growing source of hateful ideas about women and gender-nonconforming people.
Thinking ahead
We cannot address gender-based online violence and abuse by simply reporting and deleting offensive content. It also won’t stop by simply mandating that platforms have codes of conduct in place. In order to tackle the problem, we must addressing the cultural narratives that sustain it.
We can create educational initiatives that promote inclusive and accessible narratives about the nature and importance of gendered violence. We can encourage citizens to engage in bystander intervention when they encounter these narratives. And finally, we need to understand why some young men take comfort in ideas that promote toxic expressions of masculinity.
Practitioners and researchers must keep exploring the nature and prevalence of myths surrounding gender-based online violence and abuse. We need to spend time with young men and ask them questions about what they think it is to be a man, and we need to provide positive examples of masculinity in order to make manosphere-style ideas less attractive.
Jaigris Hodson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). She is a resident Fellow of the Cascade Institute, and a Research Advisor for the Clarity Foundation.
Esteban Morales receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).
Kaitlynn Mendes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), and the Canada Research Chairs Program.
Yimin Chen receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Elizabeth Saewyc, Director & Professor, School of Nursing & Executive Director, Stigma and Resilience Among Vulnerable Youth Centre, University of British Columbia
The treatment of sexual minority and gender-diverse youth in Canadian schools continues to be a contentious issue among parents and political parties, particularly in provinces like Alberta and British Columbia.
In the run-up to the upcoming B.C. election, discussions around a sexual minority framework for schools and the SOGI 123 initiative are prominent.
What is SOGI 123?
Introduced into B.C.’s public schools in 2016, SOGI 123 aims to make schools safer and more inclusive for students of all gender identities and sexual orientations. The initiative provides resources to help educators combat and address discrimination and bullying, and foster supportive and inclusive environments for 2SLGBTQ+ students.
The push for SOGI 123 was informed by a 2014 study which included data from the McCreary Centre Society’s 2013 BC Adolescent Health Survey. That study showed that schools with an established Gay Straight Alliance or Gender Sexuality Alliance, along with anti-homophobic policies, lowered the odds of sexual minority students reporting discrimination, mental health issues and suicide attempts compared to students in schools without such initiatives. Notably, heterosexual students also benefited from these inclusive settings.
Despite hopes that SOGI 123 would bridge the health and well-being disparity gap for gender-diverse and cisgender youth, recent events may be undermining those efforts. Over the past two years, there has been a notable rise in vocal opposition to the rights of trans and non-binary students across the country, with schools becoming a backdrop for protests and counter-protests.
In response to these challenges, researchers at the University of British Columbia teamed up again with McCreary Centre Society to analyze the BC Adolescent Health Survey data from 2023 to see what, if anything, has changed for trans, non-binary, and questioning young people in B.C. since 2018.
Key findings from the 2024 report
Improved family support: Some positive findings from the 2024 report include improved family support for gender-diverse youth with a noted reduction over time in these young people running away or getting kicked out of home.
Decreased feelings of safety: Results for students’ experiences at school were less positive, with decreases in feeling safe at school for both gender-diverse and cisgender youth. Gender-diverse young people were the least likely to report feeling safe in different parts of their school, and particularly in less supervised locations such as changing rooms and washrooms.
Increased reports of bullying: The majority of gender-diverse youth had experienced at least one type of in-person or online bullying in the past year, and rates of experiencing online bullying were at least twice those of cisgender boys.
Rising discrimination: Compared to five years earlier, there was an increase in gender-diverse youth reporting they had experienced discrimination, and the majority had experienced at least one form of discrimination in the past year. The most common location where discrimination occurred was at school: 32 per cent of trans girls and 57 per cent of trans boys reported they had experienced discrimination at school, compared to 29 per cent of cisgender girls and 20 per cent of cisgender boys.
School connectedness is crucial for mental well-being: Similar to past studies, strong school connections remained a strong protective factor for health and well-being, linked to reduced suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts. For example, trans boys with the highest school connectedness were 99 per cent less likely to report seriously considering suicide in the past year compared to those with lower school connections. Likewise, trans girls with strong connections were 8.7 times more likely to report good or excellent mental health compared to other trans girls with low school connections.
B.C. election issue
As the debate about SOGI 123 continues during this election cycle, the recent data from more than 76,000 Grade 7-12 students serves as a crucial and timely reminder.
It highlights the importance of considering the experiences and perspectives of B.C.’s youth in discussions about how to create safe and inclusive school environments for all.
Elizabeth Saewyc receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Public Health Agency of Canada, and the US National Institutes of Health. She also provides consultation to the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and other UN Agencies on adolescent health indicators and health measures.
Annie Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The things that play the biggest role in limiting children’s time in nature are urbanisation and parental attitudes. Despite this, digital devices are often blamed for keeping kids indoors.
Our research took a different approach, asking: could digital technologies be designed to foster nature connection? After looking at studies of digital technologies used by children aged eight years and under, we found a wide range of ways technology can help children find their way back into the great outdoors.
Being in nature
The ways children connect to nature go through several phases: “being in nature, being with nature, and being for nature”. Key experiences that boost this connection include free time in nature, seeing others like oneself in natural settings, recording nature experiences, and gaining confidence and a sense of agency outdoors.
We found technologies that help children to
have social and playful experiences outdoors
discover nature
show their care for and learn about other species and the environment, and
focus their creative and artistic abilities on the world around them.
The most commonly used technology were digital cameras in various forms: handheld, GoPros, or built into smartphones or prototype devices.
Nature photography is also a gateway to citizen science. Apps like QuestaGame, though not a subject of our research, bridge the appeal of photography and the game design of Pokémon Go. The goal of the game is to collect images of species for science.
Our study found one citizen science project with seven- and eight-year-old children text logging seashore species they found. While the youngest children needed parental support to do this, they were reportedly the most enthusiastic.
Like photography, sound technologies are an entry point to noticing the natural world. And children can use these even if they can’t yet read.
How can we use tech to connect children with nature?
There are many ways to appropriate existing technologies and make new ones to help children connect with nature. Parents and educators can use accessible technologies like cameras, and applications such as QuestaGame, including their schools-oriented challenge.
To add mystery and excitement by having to look at the images later – much like with film cameras – parents can cover up the screen of a smartphone or digital camera. (A few inches of painter’s masking tape can do the trick.)
Going out to check an automatic nature camera can also be exciting. It can even turn into a daily ritual. These cameras are available both commercially and DIY. To find the best places to put them, children can engage in backyard experimentation, adding another dimension to this activity.
To further encourage their children’s creative and scientific learning, parents can help children make digital stories out of nature photos, or learn about species together.
Finally, tech developers can use all this evidence to design dedicated tech tools for children to use in nature. These designs should be easy for young children to use, engage more senses than sight, and encourage outdoor play, wonder and care for nature.
If such technologies are designed in collaboration with children, families and educators, they have the chance to be widely embraced, both at home and in the classroom.
Our work shows there are ways to use technology to build kids’ interest in the outdoors. By listening to parents’ concerns about addiction to smart devices and children’s safety, we can ensure a world where children play outdoors freely, without veering towards surveillance.
Kellie Vella is a Research Fellow with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.
Madeleine Dobson is an Associate Investigator with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.
Google Street View has fast become a tool for people trying to get the feel for a community, look at real estate – and sometimes prank the tech giant when its mapping car drives by. But it also has the potential to help prevent falls and injuries in New Zealand’s urban environments.
Falls are a leading cause of injury and accidental death among older adults, but identifying the location of risks outside is labour and time intensive.
In our new research, we have created a tool using Google Street View to audit the places where people walk.
The goal of our new tool – Fall-SAFE – is to identify the risks in New Zealand’s built environments and create a database for local councils and community groups to understand where an older person might fall – and why.
A costly risk
Annually, one-in-three people over 65 are injured in a fall. This figure rises to one-in-two for people over 80.
In 2023 alone, ACC received 236,985 new claims for falls from people over the age of 60. Many of these falls resulted in serious injury, such as a hip fracture, hospitalisation or even death.
It’s not just older people who are at risk of falling – though they are, by far, the largest group. Last year, ACC paid out NZ$2.15 billion to cover claims for falls.
The flow-on effect from falls extends further than just medical recovery. Older people who have fallen outside, or who fear falling due to perceived risks, may be less willing to go for walks. They then miss out on the physical, mental and social benefits of this sort of activity.
Assessing the environment
Using data from ambulance service Hato Hone St John, we identified 2,117 falls between July 2016 and June 2018 in urban areas involving adults aged 65 and over. Wellington was excluded as the city uses a different ambulance service.
Auditors then used Google Street View to assess the locations of these falls and identify risks in the built environment that might have contributed. These risks included trip hazards, uneven foot paths, obstructions (such as overgrown bushes) and slopes.
Auditors used a “drop-and-spin” approach to their assessment, where they completed a 360° audit of the fall location. The Google Maps imagery was set to be as close to the date of the accident as possible.
Drop-and-spin virtual audits are quicker than physical audits, but similarly reliable. Furthermore, drop-and-spin virtual audits enable assessment over large geographic areas that would be difficult to examine in person.
Understanding New Zealand’s streets
After examining the different fall sites, we gained a better understanding of where falls happened and the hazards that could have contributed to the falls.
Half of all the falls had occurred in residential locations (49.1%) and one quarter occurred in commercial locations (22.4%). A further 16.2% of the falls had occurred in “other” locations (such as rural or industrial areas).
Over 60% of fall sites had at least one trip hazard due to poorly maintained footpaths. The most common obstructions were manholes, service covers or grates (71.5 %), poles (65.4%), utility boxes (46.6%) and overhanging vegetation (39.5%). Other obstructions such as bus shelters, chairs and tables, or drains were noted at 64.5% of the sites.
Three-quarters of the falls had occurred in locations that had a flat or gentle slope (76.3%). Only 15.5% of the falls had occurred on a moderate slope, while 8.2% had occurred on a steep slope.
Most (95.6%) of the fall locations had a normal kerb height (ten centimetres). Few locations had no kerbs (2.3%) or storm drains (2%). Streetlights were present in most fall locations, either on one side of the street (including partial or very sparse locations) (54%) or on both sides (44%). Streetlights were not visible in 0.9% of sites.
Of all the locations we assessed, just under 6% had no obvious risk whatsoever. This seems to indicate that external hazards were a contributing factor to the vast majority of falls – though without information from the person who fell, it is hard to know for sure.
A cheaper and faster option
The current approach to assessing the safety of urban environments – sending people out to physically look at a footpath to identify issues – can be time consuming and costly.
And the money to do the work is simply unavailable. Several councils, including Hamilton and Masterton, have announced significant cuts in funding from the New Zealand Transport Agency to maintain and repair footpaths and cycle lanes.
Another problem is that these assessors may not fully understand the experiences of older people in these locations. A hazard for someone aged 65+ may not seem like one for someone in their 30s or 40s.
Understanding the factors that contribute to a fall for older people – such as obstructions and trip hazards – allows city planners to address problems in the built environment.
Our free auditing tool provides a way for councils and advocacy groups to look at environments to understand the risks. Our research applied this to places where we know people had fallen, but the tool can be used to assess the risk of any environment.
Investing the time and effort now to address these fall risks early could save money – and lives – further down the track.
Angela Curl receives funding from Healthier Lives and Ageing Well National Science Challenges and Lotteries Health.
The new Northern Territory government is planning a swathe of changes to alcohol policy.
If implemented, these changes fly in the face of what evidence shows works to reduce alcohol-related harms. Some are also out of step with the rest of Australia.
Among our concerns are plans that would lead to harmful alcohol products becoming cheaper, alcohol becoming more easily available, criminalising public drunkenness, and a particularly worrying type of mandatory alcohol treatment – all of which evidence suggests will cause more harms.
No one is downplaying the magnitude and complexities of alcohol-related issues in the NT. But we hope the territory government will pay more heed to the evidence and voices of those most impacted.
Alcohol-related harm in the NT is complex
Alcohol-related harms in the NT are significantly higher (for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people) than elsewhere in Australia.
In the territory, these harms contribute to health and social outcomes costing at least A$1.4 billion a year. Alcohol harms result in costs related to health care, deaths, crime, policing and child protection.
Aboriginal communities in the NT have for decades cried out for solutions and services that effectively respond to alcohol-related harm. Instead, they found their lives made part of a political football match on law and order. Policies have been reactive and mostly ineffective. They’ve been overturned at each election.
Now, the new NT government is discussing changes that promise to exacerbate the very issues it aims to address.
1. Cheap alcohol that contributes most harm would be on the market
The World Health Organization recognises that raising the price of alcohol is one of the most effective ways for governments to reduce alcohol-related harm.
So some governments around the world, including in the NT, have set a price below which alcohol cannot be sold, known as the minimum or “floor price”. This targets cheap, high-strength alcohol associated with patterns of drinking that cause the most harm.
The new NT government plans to repeal this, despite evidence showing this works to reduce harms.
14% reduction in alcohol-related assaults in Darwin and Palmerston
11% reduction in domestic and family violence assaults
21% reduction in domestic and family violence assaults involving alcohol
19% reduction in alcohol-related emergency department attendances.
Originally, experts recommended a $1.50 floor price but this was reduced to $1.30 after a backlash from alcohol industry lobbyists. Had the policy not been watered down, evidence suggests the impacts above would likely have been greater.
The floor price has likely also lost some of its initial impact as it has never been indexed for inflation.
The best available research shows the floor price has reduced alcohol-related harms with no evidence of unintended consequences or negative impacts on the alcohol industry, despiteclaims otherwise.
Researchers and experts from around the world have been writing to NT ministers urging them to reconsider repealing this effective policy.
This includes researchers from the United Kingdom and Canada, who have coauthored this article. In these countries, evidence on the effectiveness of minimum pricing has been used to increase the floor price by 30%, not abolish it.
2. Bottle shops could be open longer
There are also proposals to repeal current restrictions on bottle shop trading hours. Such restrictions are highly effective in reducing alcohol harms, including violence.
Our paper from earlier this year found that in the town of Tennant Creek, restrictions to reduce trading hours and introduce purchase limits at bottle shops resulted in a 92% reduction in alcohol-involved domestic and family violence assaults.
Preliminary analyses of the reduced trading hours introduced in Alice Springs following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit in early 2023 also suggest a clear reduction on violence rates.
Ministers were also set to pass laws to create a new offence for “nuisance” public intoxication (also known as public drunkenness). This would allow police officers to arrest people and fine them up to $925, in addition to current powers to seize and tip out alcohol from people drinking in prohibited areas.
This is at the time when nearly every other jurisdiction in Australia is in the process of decriminalising public drunkenness, making the NT out of step with the rest of the nation.
The NT’s proposed new laws on public drunkenness would criminalise more people who are already locked out from our society, placing them at risk of the negative, intergenerational and preventable impacts that often arise from contact with the justice system.
In its previous term of government, mandatory alcohol treatment was focused on people with a public intoxication offence rather than providing quality care to people with alcohol dependence in life-saving circumstances. If the same model is reintroduced, this is potentially harmful and at best ineffective.
In the NT, this model of mandatory alcohol treatment had no better outcomes than for those who may not have received any treatment at all. But it cost the taxpayer three times as much.
Where to from here?
Researchers, health professionals and partner organisations have urged the NT government to reconsider these decisions, as we have well-founded concerns these may worsen the very issues the government aims to address.
There’s no need to guess the outcomes of changing, repealing or introducing alcohol policies. We can draw on robust evidence, including extensive research from the NT, on what works in our communities.
Cassandra Wright receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Music NT, NT Motor Accident Compensation Commission and Commonwealth government Department of Health.
Beau Jayde Cubillo receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and Fisheries Research Development Corporation on behalf of the Australian Commonwealth.
John Holmes receives funding from the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research and has previously received funding from UK Research & Innovation, the Wellcome Trust, Alcohol Change UK and other similar public health charities and government bodies. He has received funding from NHS Health Scotland (now part of Public Health Scotland) to evaluate the impact of minimum unit pricing in Scotland. He has also received funding from UK and international governments to model the potential impact of minimum unit pricing in various jurisdictions.
Mark Mayo receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Ian Potter Foundation, Ramaciotti Foundation.
Mark Robinson currently receives, or has previously received, funding from Health and Wellbeing Queensland, Queensland Health, National Health and Medical Research Council, and Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care. He was a member of the Consumption and Health Harms Evaluation Advisory Group for the evaluation of minimum unit pricing led by Public Health Scotland.
Michael Livingston receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council, HealthWay, VicHealth and the Commonwealth Department of Health. He is on the board of the Alcohol and Drug Foundation.
Nicholas Taylor receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Cancer Council, VicHealth, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, the Northern Territory government, and the Queensland government Department of Communities, Child Safety and Disability.
Sarah Clifford receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council, Music NT, and NT Motor Accident Compensation Commission.
Tim Stockwell receives funding from the Canadian Cancer Society, the the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research and the Canadian Institutes for Health Research. He has accepted travel expenses from IOGT-Sweden, the Swedish temperance society. He has been an expert witness in court cases in Canada relating to contested liquor licence applications and damages for the victims of alcohol-related violence and road crashes. He has received research funds, travel expenses and minor personal fees for conducting public health related research for government-owned alcohol retail monopolies in Finland, Sweden and Canada.
Health and physical education is one of the key subjects students learn at school. In Australia it is mandatory for students from the first year of school to Year 10.
It involves theory and practical components to help students manage their health and wellbeing. This includes healthy eating habits, sexual health, cyber safety and mental health. It also incorporates fundamental movement skills (such as throwing and catching), sports (such as swimming, gymnastics and football) and team-building.
Because it is a core, compulsory part of the curriculum it is supposed to be free for students at government schools. But our research shows some students are being asked to pay – and those who cannot are missing out.
Our research
In our recent study, we looked at the staffing and delivery of health and physical education in New South Wales government schools.
We surveyed 556 schools, which make up about 30% of public schools in the state. This included primary and high schools with a mix of locations and levels of advantage.
We used an online survey, which was completed by the teacher in charge of health and physical education.
Many schools are outsourcing lessons
We asked survey respondents who was teaching health and physical education to students at their schools. Some schools were using more than one option.
For all schools: 67% were using external provider, 44.5% were using a specialist teacher and 55.4% were using another teacher.
For primary schools: 78.4% were using an external provider, 17.9% were using a specialist teacher and 48% were using another teacher.
For high schools: 44.8% were using an external provider, 95.9% were using a specialist teacher and 69.2% were using another teacher.
Previous research has shown how schools outsource to external providers to “fill the gap” of teachers lacking confidence and competence to provide quality health and physical education lessons.
This study did not measure how frequent outsourcing was, however, comments from respondents suggests it is regular. For example, one teacher said: “a typical [outsourced] class would have one lesson a week for a term”.
Another teacher similarly said
one 40 min[ute] lesson per week. Company comes in with equipment and young university students to run different activities. They also assess our students for us.
Another teacher told us:
We use [company name], they offer different sports/programs that run for one lesson a week per term.
Families are being asked to pay
Of the schools who were outsourcing lessons, 78% of the schools outsourcing lessons said they were asking parents to help pay for these lessons.
One respondent told us, the costs were “A$45 for one term, $80 for two”.
Of this group, 64% reported students who did not pay did other school work (either for health and physical education or another core subject). About one fifth of schools said students that don’t pay just had to “sit and watch”.
This suggests some students are missing out on basic learning opportunities at school for financial reasons. As one teacher told us:
the school uses some off-campus sporting/gaming facilities that students can choose to pay extra for instead of free on-campus teacher run [activities].
Some students are just made to ‘sit and watch’ if they can’t pay. nannycz/Shutterstock
Why is this a problem?
The outsourcing of health and physical education lessons comes in the middle of an ongoing teacher shortage in Australia and around the world.
Specific shortages of health and physical education teachers have been noted for more than a decade.
However, outsourcing lessons away from qualified teachers, is a significant concern. Little is known about the external providers’ qualifications or quality. Unlike teachers, they are not subject to registration requirements or professional standards.
Even more concerning is some students are missing out on lessons or some components of lessons because their families have not been able to pay.
This links to wider concerns about unequal access to sport in the school system. This includes some private schools with new Olympic pools and boat ramps when other public schools don’t have access to council playing fields.
More research is needed
Our study suggests more research is needed. We need further information on staffing, outsourcing and lesson delivery in other areas of the country and in other subjects.
We need to be sure all students are being taught the core curriculum, free of charge and by qualified teachers – ideally specialists.
Jessica Amy Sears is affiliated with ACHPER (Australian Council for Health, Physical Education and Recreation) NSW.
Rachel Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philippa Burne, Honorary Fellow (Screenwriting), Victorian College of the Arts, University of Melbourne/PhD Candidate, UniSA Creative, The University of Melbourne
Amazon/Bunya Entertainment
Firstly, let’s revisit the question: why are they remaking The Office?
Just over ten years after the United States version of the British series ended, Australia has decided to make its own version. It follows franchises in Canada, Greece, India, Sweden and Poland, to name a few.
But we all have offices to go to, we all have our particular office cultures, co-workers and complaints. Post-pandemic, office life is becoming routine again. The more things change, the less things change, and that could be the theme of The Office Australia.
In fact, this is probably the perfect timing for this remake: post work-from-home, when large corporations are demanding workers return (often unwillingly) to shared workplaces. That’s the premise of the pilot episode of The Office Australia – everyone stops working remotely and reunites at the office. It’s timely and a good way of updating the concept to make it relatable.
‘A riddle, swallowed by an idiot …’
Modern nods, same old business
A few more nods to contemporary office culture are included, such as Zoom meetings and standing desks. But apart from that, the Australian Office could be set anytime from the 1990s onwards in terms of the look, practices and low-fi tech of the office itself.
The remake mirrors closely the US version: a romance storyline, tensions between office and warehouse, an old-school boss who loves, craves and needs camaraderie, and a staff for whom work life comes second to what they’d rather be doing.
The original United Kingdom series of The Office, by Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant, only had 12 episodes, which is still surprising to realise given how much it defined television sitcom in the decades following. Parks and Recreation (2009–2015) owes a huge debt to The Office. Whether we would have had Utopia (2014–present) without it is debatable. The late, great John Clarke broke in Australia with The Games (1998–2000) and Australia has long done this sort of observational comedy very well.
Will Australia’s version capture local flavour? It does feature the Melbourne Cup. Amazon
Despite a deep vein of experience and success to draw on, The Office Australia sticks closely to The Office format in terms of stories, characters, tone, look and laughs.
This might be because the show – made by Amazon and BBC Australia – is launching into around 240 countries and territories. It needs to find a line between being Australian and being international. That said, it has probably veered more into the international end of the scale, with enough Australiana (venomous snakes, barbecues) to ground it here, but still universal enough to be widely relatable and understandable.
The US version had 201 episodes, giving it scope to develop the characters and the storylines and make it a massively popular and frequently rewatched series. (There’s a follow up series in the works called The Paper.) So it’s no wonder writers Julie De Fina and Jackie van Beek looked to the this version for guidance for the Australian series. This is less an adaptation than a remake with a different accent.
Familiar and new faces
Hannah Howard (Felicity Ward) is the devoted office manager who loves her job too much and runs an under-performing, dysfunctional workplace of uninterested staff.
The show centres on her, with the familiar mockumentary style. Like David Brent and Michael Scott before her, Hannah Howard is optimistic, naive, relentless and terrible at staff management. She forces pyjama days and bus trips on her employees, who are clearly unwilling yet never actively rebel. There is plenty of comedy in the awkwardness and small moments.
Felicity Ward plays the boss (sort of) of this particular office. Amazon
Her devoted assistant and receptionist Lizzie (Edith Poor), a former Scout, wears a grey suit and will pursue any idea no matter how ill-conceived or illegal to make Hannah’s plans come to fruition.
Long-suffering human resources manager Martin (Josh Thomson) tries to keep them from actually breaking laws, while Nick (Steen Raskopoulos) and Greta (Shari Sebbens) gaze awkwardly across their workstation divider at each other in a slow-burning love story. There are the usual office roles which offer story beats: accounting, IT, sales.
The first Australian season of The Office might not be anything new, but I kept watching. It felt safe, even comforting. Perhaps in a similar way going to someone else’s family for Christmas lunch can feel familiar: recognisable foods, decorations, known characters – but with the frisson that maybe something different will happen this time.
This remake knows what it is. It’s been made to satisfy an audience wanting to be in a world that reflects their own experiences, but takes it just that bit too far. It’s not setting out to break moulds, but to bring the mould up to date and give it an Australian voice for the world to hear.
The Office premieres on October 18 on Prime.
Philippa Burne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Courtney W. Mason, Professor and Canada Research Chair, Rural Livelihoods and Sustainable Communities, Thompson Rivers University
With British Columbians going to the polls this week, a whole host of key issues are on the agenda. Among these issues stands the future of species at risk legislation in B.C. — and perhaps with it Canada as a whole.
A major issue with SARA is that it does not apply everywhere. Canada’s legal system divides power between federal and provincial governments. Wildlife, including species at risk, are mostly the provinces’ responsibility. SARA only applies to aquatic species, migratory birds and species on federal land (like national parks).
Unfortunately, most animals are not adept at reading maps, and a SARA-protected species can lose its protection simply by crossing a jurisdictional boundary. SARA does include exceptions where the federal government can intervene if a province is not doing enough to protect a particular species. But in practice the provinces have mostly been left to their own devices.
These jurisdictional dynamics, characteristic of Canadian federal politics, have created variations in species protection efforts across the country.
Of Canada’s nine common law provinces (excluding Québec and the territories), five have designated species at risk laws. The other four — British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island — have only limited protections within other laws.
Species protection efforts are marked by numerous momentous decision-points. Perhaps the most significant decision of all is whether to list a species as at risk.
Most Canadian jurisdictions use committees of experts — including Indigenous knowledge holders and conservation scientists — to evaluate the risk to a species. In some provinces, like Nova Scotia, this becomes the official species at risk list.
In others, including federally, the committee decision is only a recommendation and the relevant minister has final discretion on listing. Ministerial discretion has led to certain types of species — particularly ones whose harvest or habitats are economically important — to repeatedly not be listed.
Discretion is not limited to listing decisions. In jurisdictions with species at risk laws, discretion allows governments to not enforce protections that interfere with other priorities. For example, a provincial government deeply invested in forestry could use ministerial discretion to de-emphasize protections for old growth forests, despite providing critical habitats for species at risk.
Where species at risk laws are insufficient, leaving room for discretion only weakens already limp protections. The only way to improve conditions for species at risk is to support governments that promise to prioritize the environment, and continually hold them to those promises.
Promises without progress
B.C. has over 2,000 plants, animals and habitats listed at risk. This is eight times more than Ontario, which has the second most listed species at risk with just over 250. Despite this, B.C. has some of the least complete legal protections, barely edging out Alberta to not come last in our scoring comparison. The province also has a history of promising species at risk law reform with no concrete action.
B.C. clearly illustrates how promises do not always lead to results.
In 2017, the B.C. NDP formed the province’s government under an agreement with the B.C. Green Party to prioritize environmental issues — including protecting species at risk. The 2017 mandate letter charged George Heyman, the Minister of Environment, to develop species at risk legislation.
After 2020’s mid-coronavirus snap election, the B.C. NDP gained a majority government without needing support from the B.C. Green Party. Consequently, 2020’s mandate letter showed weakening environmental priorities. The letter signalled a move away from species at risk legislation and instead directed the minister with “continuing to work with partners to protect species at risk”.
Perhaps realizing this language could not be further softened, new premier David Eby made no mention of species at risk or wildlife in the 2022 mandate letter.
Nonetheless, species at risk protections are back on the political agenda in the ongoing election, with both the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservative parties promising “made-in-B.C.” and “science-based” biodiversity initiatives and species at risk legislation.
However, the result of the election will have a significant impact on the strength of any new laws, as the NDP’s platform focuses on overall biodiversity and increasing protection to critical habitats such as old-growth forests, while the Conservative’s seems mostly aimed at working with hunters to increase ungulate populations to allow larger hunting quotas.
Uncertain future
In recent legislative debates, B.C.’s ministers responsible for species at risk (and their habitats) have explained delays in making a species at risk law by increasingly emphasizing that they are taking the time to include Indigenous perspectives.
While it is positive that legislators are acknowledging the necessity of collaborating with Indigenous Nations on environmental laws, it is hard not to read repeated references to the length of consultation as deflecting responsibility for government inaction onto Indigenous communities.
Elections are impending across the country and environmental interests are back in the conversation. However, any progress could easily be lost if new governments are not committed to support environmental interests, both during and after the election cycle.
It is vital to support political parties with an environmental platform aimed at protecting biodiversity. Canada’s species at risk need voters to keep them in mind at the ballot boxes.
Courtney W. Mason receives funding from SSHRC; Canadian Mountain Network; BC Parks; Braiding Knowledge Canada.
Jordyn Maria Bogetti receives funding from SSHRC; Canadian Mountain Network.
So, on we go
His welfare is of my concern
No burden is he to bear
We’ll get there
For I know
He would not encumber me
He ain’t heavy, he’s my brother – He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother by The Hollies
Writer–Director David Vincent Smith’s reference to The Hollies’ 1969 hit as the title for his new film is not without irony.
Max (Sam Corlett) – drug-dependent and out of control – is clearly a crushing weight on his sister Jade (Leila George) and mother Bev (Greta Scacchi).
The opening scene of this compelling new Australian production throws us right into the chaos he visits upon them. The desperate, violent, off-camera shouts of abuse from Max as his sister sneaks past concerned neighbours and into their mother’s house are obviously nothing new.
Bev, seated at the kitchen table, shows none of the anxiety we see in Jade. Perhaps she’s beyond reacting to Max’s outbursts. Perhaps she looks past the ugly side of her son through eyes that see only with a mother’s love.
Jade, however, is at the end of her tether. Everything she’s tried has failed. She’s left with just one last desperate measure.
This desperate measure didn’t come to David Vincent Smith as a narrative conceit. It was much closer to home.
One night, Smith got a call from his mother who told him his own drug-addicted brother was outside their home. As he explains in the film’s press kit:
I could hear smashing windows in the background as he tried to claw his way inside. I was done. There had been many years of violence, emergency rooms and mental trauma […] my own life was suffering as a result […] what could I do? I had an idea – I could kidnap him. Take him out to the desert, throw away the car keys and resolve this once and for all.
Smith didn’t pursue that extreme thought in real life. Instead, it found its way onto the screen, first as a short “proof of concept” film – I’m Not Hurting You, which played at the 2019 Sydney Film Festival – and then as He Ain’t Heavy, his first feature film.
The kidnapping and withdrawal
Jade does indeed kidnap her brother. She sedates him and brings him to their dead grandparents’ home in the country, which Jade and Bev have been packing up in preparation to for its sale.
Here, we see Jade’s methodical preparation of the room where she will incarcerate Max, the food she will feed him, the posters and pamphlets that inform her how to manage a drug addict’s withdrawal.
The film follows Jade (Leila George), who has spent much of her life trying to bring her brother Max out of his drug addiction. Bonsai Fims
The choice of the grandparents’ home is significant for our understanding of this fractured family. Here we find evidence that things weren’t always like this.
We see old photo albums of happier times, toys and games that are now just reminders of fun family visits, a guitar that was once part of Max’s promising singing career, the nearby waterhole where lazy days were spent, and pencil marks on the door jamb recording the siblings’ growth.
Perhaps the resonance of their better days will be as powerful as the enforced withdrawal in bringing Max back. But, of course, Jade’s best-laid plans don’t go as she might have hoped.
Sam Corlett, who plays Max, also plays the role of Leif Eriksson in the popular Netflix series Vikings: Valhalla. Bonsai Fims
In many ways, Max’s drug addiction is what Alfred Hitchcock would have called a McGuffin – the story element you think the film is about, when in fact the film is about something else entirely.
In this case, that something else is love: the love Jade feels for her brother that leads to this extreme action, the love Bev feels for her son that makes her vulnerable to his unpredictable and violent behaviour, and the absence of love Max feels for himself – a void that sucks him into a self-destructive spiral.
He Ain’t Heavy is essentially a three-handed chamber piece that delivers a triumvirate of distinctive, grounded and well-delineated performances, each one serving a sharply written screenplay imbued with an authenticity that reflects Smith’s lived experience.
Bev (Greta Scacchi) feels a lot of lover for her son, which makes her vulnerable to his unpredictable and violent behaviour. Bonsai Fims
A powerful portrait of familial love
Without giving any spoilers, there are some narrative conveniences along the way that might detract from a lesser film. In this case, however, they are easy to forgive, in favour of the powerful viewing experience they help deliver.
If only for the curiosity factor, it’s worth noting Leila George is also Greta Scacchi’s real-life daughter (her father is Vincent D’Onofrio). This obviously doesn’t hurt when it comes to casting for family resemblance. But this tidbit of trivia is quickly forgotten in the moments of each of their finely crafted, absorbing performances.
In Smith’s earlier short film version, we see a plaque on the grandparents’ kitchen wall with the following aphorism:
RECIPE FOR LIFE – pinch of persistence, dash of kindness, spoonful of laughter, heap of love.
This is a story about a family that has exhausted its persistence, and for whom laughter is something of the past. But Jade’s extreme action is really an act of kindness. Both she and Bev, in their own ways, are driven by that heap of love.
He Ain’t Heavy is a film that deserves the same heap of love from its audience.
The film serves a sharply written screenplay imbued with authenticity. Bonsai Fims
He Ain’t Heavy is in select cinemas from October 17.
Chris Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
it was wrong, it was illegal, it should never have happened and it should never happen again.
A major finding was some senior public servants were overly responsive to the wishes of ministers, to the detriment of the general public. The report describes an environment that was:
fraught […] characterised by a powerful drive for savings, strongly expressed ministerial policy positions […] and intense pressure experienced by public servants.
Investigating the scheme, which ran under the Morrison government, Commissioner Catherine Holmes was disturbed by “the lengths to which public servants were prepared to go to oblige ministers”, undermining the concept of impartiality and frank and fearless advice.
The release of Rick Morton’s new book Mean Streak brings a renewed focus on the lessons from Robodebt. To learn from such a serious crisis, organisations need to openly confront what happened, discuss and understand what the failure means. What were the systemic causes? What cultural failings did it expose? How can we ensure a similar disaster does not happen again?
Our research found little evidence these questions were being asked by many public service leaders immediately after the royal commission.
In the six months after the royal commission report’s release, almost half of the heads of Australian Public Service (APS) agencies apparently decided they didn’t need to communicate with their staff about Robodebt and explain what it meant for them.
What did department leaders do?
Learning from the failure of Robodebt will take time. In 2024, the public service is investigating and punishing some of those involved and implementing a new integrity plan.
Our research focuses on the six months after the release of the royal commission report: July to December 2023. Research shows the immediate post-crisis period is crucial to effective learning.
But before organisations can respond, they have to interpret and understand the meaning of the failure.
Just as the public turns to political leaders in a crisis, employees look to management. Leaders’ communication, whether by email, an all staff video, or a town hall meeting, is crucial.
These messages set the organisational narrative that explains what happened and why, what the repercussions are, how it can be resolved, and what lessons (if any) should be drawn from the crisis.
Three days after the royal commission report was released, the secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Glyn Davis, and Australian Public Service Commissioner Gordon de Brouwer, emailed all public service employees saying:
we are committed to working through the findings in an open and constructive way with you — the APS — and with the Australian public.
Our focus, however, is on how leaders of individual departments and agencies responded. Using Freedom of Information (FOI) requests, we asked how leaders communicated with staff in the crucial period straight after the commission reported.
Departments are where policy development occurs and they often work closely with ministers.
But only half of all public servants work for departments. The rest work across the 100 or so agencies.
While most department heads communicated with their staff about Robodebt, only 54% of agencies’ leaders did.
The 50 agencies that did not communicate with their staff about the meaning of Robodebt in the months following the report employ more than 45,000 people, more than 25% of the public service.
Not my problem mentality
Three large departments told us that “no documents were identified” or “the Department does not hold documents […] that meet the terms of the request”. This indicates they did not communicate with staff in the first six months after the Robodebt report was handed down. The departments were:
It is not clear why those secretaries decided not to write to their staff directly about Robodebt, but the absence of communication sends a message.
This was explicit in some responses. For example, in declining our request, we were told that the Independent Health and Aged Care Pricing Authority:
[…] is not an outwardly facing organisation and as such does not provide payments to individual recipients. Consequently, it is not required to respond to the Royal Commission and there are no documents that are relevant to your request.
Even when there was some communication, agencies were not necessarily addressing the cultural issues. For example, the Clean Energy Regulator was focused on public perception:
there is a heightened sense of scrutiny on regulators […] please be vigilant if you are approached by anybody working for a media outlet.
In such circumstances, it is unlikely cultural change will occur.
Some positive signs
On the positive side, there were examples of agencies that addressed the serious implications of Robodebt for their work, which is likely to improve their organisational culture.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) identified a number of recommendations “albeit directed at other agencies […] that ASIC should act on”. They noted that “given most of our people come from the private sector”, there was a need to improve training on “our obligations as public servants”.
Similarly, Australian statistician David Gruen emphasised creating a culture where “people feel supported if and when they seek to raise difficult issues with their colleagues or superiors”. Similar discussions were had at AUSTRAC.
Departments are closest to ministers, so we hoped their communications would address problems in the relationships between senior public servants and ministers, a key issue exposed in the Robodebt case.
Unfortunately, only four departments discussed over-responsiveness with their staff or in executive meetings, in the period studied.
The department of industry and science was the most comprehensive. Secretary Meghan Quinn wrote to staff several times, reflecting that the “findings go to the heart of leadership and culture and this should be our focus going forward”. The department’s integrity branch wrote to staff:
public servants [must] […] provide the government with advice that is frank and honest. If you ever feel pressured to do or sign something you are not comfortable with, it’s important you speak with your supervisors […] you have the Executive’s backing not to put your name to anything that is not true or not in the public interest.
However, this was one of the few departments where senior staff confronted these core issues directly in the early months after the royal commission reported. Most departments did not name or discuss the underlying cause of the failures: over-responsiveness to ministers at the expense of protecting the public.
While many of the errors of Robodebt can be solved through new procedures and rules, changing public service culture is a bigger learning project.
It requires a shift in norms and reweighting the competing duties of public servants. They must serve elected ministers, but equally, they must serve the public by ensuring probity, fairness and legality.
Robodebt illustrated the harm that occurs when the balance tips too far towards ministers and away from the public interest.
That this was rarely part of the communication from public service leaders to their staff in the immediate aftermath of the royal commission does not bode well for lessons being learnt from the crisis.
Daniel Casey worked in the Department of Social Services during the period of Robodebt, but did not work on the Robodebt program.
Maria Maley received funding from the Australian Research Council.
New Zealand is highly reliant on trade – particularly on maritime routes, which are lifelines for exports and imports. Key sectors such as agriculture, construction, and wholesale and retail trade depend heavily on this global network.
External events can severely disrupt the flow of goods, delay deliveries or damage critical infrastructure.
But a crisis like the COVID pandemic can also disrupt business commitments to sustainability goals such as reducing carbon emissions, minimising waste and improving resource efficiency.
This is important, because several major New Zealand companies have introduced sustainability measures into their operations over the past decade.
Fonterra, for example, adopted low-carbon logistics and distribution practices. Zespri uses blockchain technology to improve the transparency of its sustainable practices and enhance tracking across its supply chain. Air New Zealand partners with local suppliers and adopts initiatives to lower its carbon emissions.
In our recent research, we reviewed 287 studies on supply chains. We identified key tensions between efficiency and sustainability, and how major disruptions to supply chains and operations can swing the balance between the two.
On one hand, businesses are pressured to maintain lean, cost-effective operations. On the other, there is a growing recognition of the need to build resilience and sustainability, particularly in the face of climate change.
Businesses have historically responded in a variety of ways: diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory buffers and securing alternative transport routes.
The use of technology, such as radio frequency identification, has played a crucial role in tracking goods across the supply chain. It provides real-time visibility and accurate inventory management.
Blockchain is becoming a key tool for making supply chains more sustainable. This technology uses a digital ledger to keep information safe and easy to trace.
But the ongoing technological innovation risks disadvantaging people and businesses with limited resources and capabilities along the supply chain.
Embracing a circular economy
During the pandemic, businesses experienced shortages of critical supplies, delays in shipments and fluctuating demand. This forced them to temporarily abandon long-term sustainability strategies in favour of short-term survival tactics.
This made sense from a business perspective. But to build more resilient and sustainable supply chains, businesses will need to move beyond traditional strategies.
Our research found integrating circular economy principles into supply chain management can help create a buffer for businesses.
The circular economy model focuses on minimising waste – keeping products and materials in use for as long as possible. There is also a focus on regenerating natural systems to foster economic, social and environmental resilience.
Companies can reduce their reliance on external supply chains by focusing on reusing materials, creating closed-loop systems with regional partners and by boosting the technologies already in place.
By fostering stronger links with local suppliers and focusing on regional sourcing, businesses can reduce their exposure to global risks. This will also help build more self-sufficient supply chain ecosystems.
Building sustainable supply chains requires investing in advanced technologies, such as blockchain and artificial intelligence. But implementing these technologies should be done carefully and in stages to minimise disruption. Going slowly can also allow for the inclusion of all supply chain partners in these technological transitions.
The way forward
New Zealand’s supply chain future hinges on greater collaboration between everyone involved, including businesses, policymakers and communities.
In practice, this means working together to build systems that are not only efficient and cost-effective but also resilient and sustainable.
Equally, resilient supply chains require regional manufacturing ecosystems. To mitigate the risks from global supply chain disruptions, it’s essential to support local manufacturing, even when offshore manufacturing costs are lower.
This will require government support and strategic investment in regional manufacturing innovation.
While New Zealand’s supply chains face significant challenges, there are great opportunities to reshape them for a more resilient and sustainable future.
By integrating circular economy principles, using advanced technologies and fostering regional collaboration, New Zealand can build supply chains that are prepared for future crises and which also contribute to the country’s sustainability goals.
Julia Fehrer receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment.
Christina Stringer, Sunny Kareem, and Timofey Shalpegin do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
A new study has found a link between hormonal intrauterine devices (IUDs) and breast cancer.
The research is important, but media reports of a large increase in risk may be causing unnecessary worry.
Let’s put the findings in perspective for people who use IUDs.
What are IUDs?
IUDs are commonly used contraceptive devices. They sit inside the uterus (womb) to prevent pregnancy.
Older versions contain copper as their active ingredient. Newer “hormonal” IUDs slowly release a synthetic progesterone called levonorgestrel. This mimics the body’s natural progesterone hormone.
But the hormonal IUDs have the extra advantage of making periods lighter and less painful. Some people have one inserted for these reasons, even if they don’t need contraception.
Many women experience pain on insertion or spotting in the first few months of use. But compared to other contraceptives, women generally find IUDs very acceptable and continue to use them.
What did the new study find?
The new study, by researchers from Denmark, used data from national health registries to look for links between hormonal IUD use and breast cancer.
They tracked nearly 80,000 people who started hormonal IUDs across two decades. They compared these people to an equal number of people born at the same time who did not use hormonal IUDs.
On their raw numbers, you might think hormonal IUDs prevented breast cancer, because there were 720 cases of breast cancer in the hormonal IUD group, and nearly 900 in the other group. But that’s not the full story.
Ideally, when researchers study the effects of medicines, they do a “randomised controlled trial”, where researchers use chance to decide whether people get one treatment or another. This ensures the two groups are very similar apart from the treatment being studied. That’s not what happened here.
Instead, they simply studied people who had decided to have a hormonal IUD, and compared them to people who didn’t. This means the groups were different in many other ways.
So, the hormonal IUD group and the other group might appear to have a different risk of breast cancer – not because of the IUDs, but because of their other differences. For example, more highly educated women might be more likely to choose IUDs, and also more likely to attend breast cancer screening, where their breast cancer would be discovered.
The researchers “adjusted” their results to account for many differences between the two groups (including education, age, number of children, and some other medicines and medical conditions). After this “adjustment”, the numbers pointed in a different direction: towards a higher risk of breast cancer among people who used a hormonal IUD.
However, there are many other important risk factors for breast cancer the authors seem not to have adjusted for, such as body weight, alcohol use, smoking and physical activity. If there were differences between the two groups in these things, then the study’s results may still be biased. This makes me quite uncertain about the results.
Ultimately, we can’t say the IUDs caused the breast cancer – just that there’s an “association” or “link”.
There are two different ways researchers express risk: “relative” and “absolute” risks. Here, the “relative” risk increase was about 30% for women using the IUDs for up to five years, 40% after 5–10 years, and 80% after 10–15 years of use.
These sound like massive risks. But though these statistics compare the risk of breast cancer in IUD users to the risk in non-users, they do not tell us the proportion of women who will get breast cancer. For that, we need to look at “absolute” risk increases.
These are much smaller. For every 10,000 women, this study suggests we might see an extra 14 cases of breast cancer after up to five years of use, 29 cases after 5–10 years use, and 71 cases after 10–15 years use. In “absolute” terms – as a proportion of all the IUD users – all of these risk increases are comfortably under 1%.
Reporting the dramatic relative risks, and not the much smaller absolute risks, is a common flaw in stories about health risk, and goes against science reportingrecommendations.
What does other research say?
There are other studies on this topic, including a much larger recent study from Sweden based on data from more than half a million users of hormonal IUDs.
This suggested only a 13% relative risk increase in breast cancer – much smaller than the risk increases in the Danish study. This would mean an additional 1.46 cases of breast cancer for every 10,000 women per year.
This is in keeping with a recent large review of studies on this topic, which also found a much smaller risk than the new Danish paper.
The Swedish study also looked at other cancers. The results suggested a decreased risk of cancers of the cervix, ovaries and endometrium (womb lining). This mixed picture of some cancer risk and some cancer protection is also seen for traditional contraceptive pills.
And of course, all contraception protects women from the risks of pregnancy.
What does it mean for me?
The link between hormonal IUDs and breast cancer is probably very small, and might be a statistical illusion rather than a real thing.
Even if it’s a real risk, it may be offset by protection against other cancers.
And it may be dwarfed by other risks for breast cancer, such as high body weight, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and smoking. Online resources can help you visualise these risks.
Hormonal IUDs aren’t the right contraceptive choice for every woman. However, they deserve to stay high up on the menu of options.
Brett Montgomery is a GP who works academically and clinically. In his clinical work he sometimes discusses contraception with patients, including IUDs, but he does not insert IUDs himself. He has no commercial relationship with any IUD manufacturer.
Since it was founded nearly two decades ago, 23andMe has grown into one of the largest biotechnology companies in the world. Millions of people have used its simple genetic testing service, which involves ordering a saliva test, spitting into a tube, and sending it back to the company for a detailed DNA analysis.
But now the company is on the brink of bankruptcy. This has raised concerns about what will happen to the troves of genetic data it has in its possession.
But what can customers of 23andMe themselves do to make sure their highly personal genetic data is protected? And should we be concerned about other companies that also collect our DNA?
What is 23andMe?
23andMe is one of the largest companies in the crowded marketplace for direct-to-consumer genetic testing. It was founded in 2006 in California, launching its spit test and Personal Genome Service the following year, at an initial cost of US$999. This test won Time magazine’s Invention of the Year in 2008.
Customers eagerly took up the opportunity to order a saliva collection kit online, spit in the tube and mail it back. In a few weeks when the results were ready they could find out about their health, ancestry, and other things like food preferences, fear of public speaking and cheek dimples.
23andMe rode the wave of popular excitement and investor interest in genetics. It wasn’t alone. By 2022 the direct-to-consumer genetic testing market was valued at US$3 billion. The three largest players – 23andMe, AncestryDNA and MyHeritage – together hold the genetic data of almost 50 million people globally.
There are dozens of smaller players too, with some focusing on emerging markets such as MapMyGenome in India and 23mofang and WeGene in China.
What happened to 23andMe?
23andMe has had a rapid downfall after the 2021 high of its public listing.
What this might mean for its vast stores of genetic data is unclear.
When people sign up for a 23andMe test the company assures them: “your privacy comes first”. It promises it will never share people’s DNA data with employers, insurance companies or public databases without consent. It puts choice in the hands of consumers about whether their spit sample is kept by the company, and whether their de-identified genetic and other data is used in research. Four in five people who bought a 23andMe test have agreed to their data being used in research.
In a statement to The Conversation, a 23andMe spokesperson said Wojcicki is “not open to considering third-party takeover proposals”, and that in the event of any future ownership change, the company’s existing data privacy agreements with customers “would remain in place unless and until customers are presented with, and agree to, new terms and statements – and only after receiving appropriate notice of any new terms, under applicable data protection laws”.
Tips for people to protect their genetic data
With 23andMe in the spotlight, people might want to take steps to protect their genetic data (although experts say there’s not really any more risk now than there has always been).
The simplest thing is to delete your account, which opts you out of any future research and discards your saliva sample. But if your data has already been de-identified and used in research, it can’t be retrieved. And even if you delete your account, 23andMe says it will keep hold of information including your genetic data, date of birth and sex, to comply with its own legal obligations.
Buying a DNA test online might feel fun and rewarding and it’s certainly been marketed that way. There are plenty of good news stories about how getting those test results has helped people to connect with lost family or understand more about their health risks. People just need to buy tests with their eyes open about what this might mean.
First, the results might not be all positive. Finding out about health risks without guidance from a health professional can be scary. Learning that the person you thought was your mum or dad actually isn’t, is an outcome for as many as 1 in 20 people who’ve bought a DNA test online.
Second, every company selling DNA tests does so with lots of legal conditions attached. People click through these without a second thought but researchers have shown it is worth taking a closer look. Consider what the company says about what it will do with your data and your sample, how long they will keep it, who else can access it, and how easy it will be to delete later.
There are guidelines from organisations like Australian Genomics that can help. And bear in mind that if a company holding your DNA profile is sold, it might be hard to make sure that data is protected.
So maybe reconsider giving a DNA test as a Christmas gift.
Megan Prictor is a member of the International Association of Privacy Professionals and the Australasian Association of Bioethics and Health Law.
Brendan Cowell’s 2021 novel Plum has expertly wed two seemingly unnatural partners: rugby league and poetry. Cowell’s story is both an ode of love to rugby league, and a powerful exploration of the catastrophic effects of sport-induced brain injury.
This story has now been brought to life in an ABC drama of the same name. It brilliantly reflects the experience of many players who are left to suffer – often in silence – with the long-term costs of the game.
A theatre of damage revealed
Our introduction to the main character, Peter “The Plum” Lum (played by Cowell), is jarring. Plum’s body lies motionless in a darkened changing room, enveloped by the distant sounds of a roaring stadium full of fans, a sharp referee’s whistle and the commentator’s pitched voice: “this poor bloke, he has had his head absolutely battered”.
We watch the doctor’s light worryingly cast to and fro across Plum’s dazed gaze, while his heavily pregnant wife’s concerned face looms large. Much larger, however, is the coach’s demand: “get the salts doc” – and his insistence that “the only way he (Plum) isn’t going back out there (on the field) is if he is fucking dead”.
And so the act proceeds, with Plum, like many athletes before and after him, returning heroically to the field. Though his team is victorious – another trophy retained – we’re forced to consider the unspoken costs of his love for the game.
These costs are amplified once the adoration from Plum’s fans and teammates, and his mantle as Cronulla’s king, are no more. We come to know a shell of a man who is desperate to deny, despite the advice of his doctor, the cognitive and other effects of the “little jolts” and “hard head knocks” experienced throughout his career.
The intensity with which Plum keeps his health condition a secret, and the ongoing abuse he levels on his body, provide a window into the lived experiences of many rugby league players. While this game gives, it also takes more than its fair share.
Asher Keddie stars as Plum’s former wife, Renee. ABC
Masculinity and collision sports
The series highlights the emerging scientific link between collision sports such as rugby league and degenerative brain conditions including CTE-induced dementia – as well as attempts to discredit this science and silence the voices of athletes and families seeking redress from league administrators.
Contact and collision sports have often required athletes to sacrifice their brains and bodies in the pursuit of glory and success.
While a diagnosis of the degenerative brain disease Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) can only be made posthumously, Plum displays many of the hallmark symptoms: impaired judgement, impulse control issues, aggression, depression and anxiety.
Viewers are taken into the deep fog of this existence. As a 1990s playmaker, Plum had fame but not fortune. Nearing 50, working at an airport, we see a traumatic near-miss as he experiences an epileptic seizure.
His forgetfulness leaves him unable to remember his favourite player’s name at a Cronulla Sharks corporate event. He suffers confusion and anxiety. Aggressive acts, including punching holes in bedroom walls, become his daily pain and shame.
Plum’s absent father’s advice to “never take a backwards step” also echoes throughout the series, reflecting the deeply embedded view of rugby league as a hard sport played by equally hard men.
This hard man veneer is grounded in stoicism – and for Plum and his former teammates, in unhealthy addictions to gambling, drugs and grog. Plum repels his family and friends, making his world intentionally small for fear he might forget something or someone. The series brings to the fore the raw and visceral effects of hypermasculinity and not speaking out.
Cowell himself hails from the Sydney suburb of Cronulla, where the show is set. ABC
Rugby league and poetry
The series also features poetry and the presence of past literary figures (conjured in Plum’s mind) such as Charles Bukowski and Sylvia Plath. As viewers, we see Plum’s internal dialogues with these apparitions, but his family and friends can’t.
Plum also joins a local poetry group, where his decaying brain finds purpose and connection. This unlikely outlet becomes his therapy. It comforts him and provides him a space to communicate his experiences with the outside world. Through his ode to rugby league, we witness him come closer to clarity.
All the while, Plum’s son is a talented player on the verge of a professional rugby league contract. And although Plum doesn’t regret a minute of his playing career, his prognosis leaves him urging his son away from the sport’s theatre of damage. This is a decision echoed by many parents in real life.
The future of collision sports
Reflecting on the potential impact of his book and the ABC series, Cowell imagines a space where the competitive commercial rivalries between football codes such as AFL, rugby union and soccer are suspended.
Instead of competing for a greater share of the market via trivial one-upmanship, sport leagues could pool their resources to invest in science that helps us understand and prevent sport-induced brain trauma.
Considering how many rugby players conceal and/or fail to report concussive episodes, we’ll need a major cultural shakeup at all levels of the game – because a love for the game should never come at the expense of oneself.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Here I look at decennial increases in total deaths by ‘generation’, where each generation is a ten-year birth cohort centred on a zero year. Featured generations are the ‘lucky generation’ (b. circa. 1940), post-war baby-boomers (b. circa. 1950), generation Jones (b. circa. 1960), generation X (b. circa. 1970) and generation Y (b. circa. 1980).
Table provided by Keith Rankin.
In Table 1 above we see that in 2020, 109% more people born around 1970 died than in 2010. The main reason for the increase is that these ‘Gen-X’ people were ten years older in 2020 than in 2010. Secondary reasons could relate to the net-immigration between those years for that age cohort, or could relate to the underlying health attributes of generation-X.
(Note that the ‘+’ in the labels arises because, due to data limitations, the definition of the generations used varies slightly for each year. Thus, for 2021, Gen-X is 1966-1976.)
We see that all of the followed generations show marked increases in the increases of deaths as we progress from 2020 to 2022, with the younger age cohorts showing increased increases in 2023 as well. Generation-X is highlighted as having the biggest increases in each of these four years: 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024. This suggests underlying health issues in this generation, or greater increases in net immigration for Gen-X (compared to say Gen-J or Gen-Y), or both.
On the matter of Gen-X net immigration, we note that immigrants must undergo health checks, so it’s likely that the death rates of Gen-X immigrants since 2010 are lower than the death rates of Gen-X non-immigrants. So it’s looking like there are significantly problematic health issues being experienced by Gen-X Aotearoans.
Table provided by Keith Rankin.
Table 2 focusses on just February to May data. These are the months in which death numbers are generally lowest. Older people tend to die more in winter, and younger people in summer. These are mainly autumn data. We also note that Table 2 allows us to access 2024 mortality data.
This is more worrying for Gen-X, because the data show higher rates of death increase from 2022, with an especially problematic number – a 170% increase in deaths – for 2024. These data definitely suggest there’s an underlying health problem, especially for that generation. The problem may be in two parts: underlying health status (eg incidence of chronic illnesses), and increased inadequacy of healthcare (including inability to access life-saving drugs).
Table provided by Keith Rankin.
Table 3 focusses on July and August only, the two main months for deaths attributable to respiratory infectious diseases. As we would expect, the older generations come out ‘tops’ in 2020 and 2021. But in 2022, the year the pandemic hit in New Zealand, it’s Gen-X again which has copped the biggest increases in deaths from infectious causes. Further, in 2023, it’s the younger generations – Gen-Y as well as Gen-X – that are showing the greatest increases in winter deaths. (Lack of access to Covid19 boosters might be part of the problem here.)
So, while yesterday’s charts might have showed that life-expectancy improvements have bottomed out after 2010, these table suggest that very recent mortality data is showing definite signs that life expectancies are starting to fall, with Gen-X – born around 1970 – taking the lead in this new development.
From the point of view of funding the healthcare system, not only is the aging of the population not being properly accounted for, but also substantial swathes of the bulging generations (generations J and X) are seemingly less healthy. We remember that deaths are only the ‘tip’ of the disease ‘iceberg’; mortality increases indicate underlying morbidity increases, and it is morbidity that places the greatest demands on healthcare.
(Is there a ‘sound’ fiscal argument for expanded access to euthanasia in the coming decades?!)
Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Disturbing details emerged this week about AFL men’s football team GWS’ end-of-year event, themed “controversial couples”.
The AFL handed down a range of sanctions to the players involved, including fines and suspensions.
While those defending the players have suggested their actions were lighthearted and in the spirit of the season-end celebration, research has established a connection between rape jokes and sexual assault.
The AFL has a tarnished history when it comes to players perpetrating violence against women.
Despite pledging support for ending gender-based violence in Australia, this incident proves problematic cultural problems persist within AFL clubs.
What happened?
Following an anonymous tip-off to GWS management, it was revealed a number of players engaged in sexist, racist and degrading acts during an end-of-season event.
Hayne was sentenced to four years and nine months prison for raping a woman on the night of the 2018 NRL grand final but was released earlier this year after his convictions were overturned.
Players Connor Idun and Lachie Whitfield performed a skit involving slavery, while another pair simulated the September 11 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers.
It has also been reported a sketch involving Sean “Diddy” Combs — an American rapper currently jailed on charges of racketeering, sex trafficking and transportation — was performed.
Scholars and activists are working tirelessly to change public perceptions around violence against women. Jokes and skits themed around violence and sexual assault are harmful because they trivialise the immense harm gendered violence causes women and children.
The AFL’s woman problem
There are many historic examples of AFL players and athletes of other codes acting violently and disrespectfully towards women.
Numerous current and former players, who have faced criminal charges for assaults and sexual violence towards women, have been allowed to continue playing or retain their status as celebrated players.
Current AFL player Jordan De Goey has faced sexual assault allegations, and was briefly stood down by his club in 2021 after being charged with assault in the United States.
Recently, one of the AFL’s greatest former players, Wayne Carey, was set to be inducted as a legend in the New South Wales Football Hall of Fame, despite having a number of charges for assaulting women. However, the AFL did eventually block the move after public outcry.
The AFL, and parts of the media, often distinguish players’ violence against women from their achievements on the field. This allows men to continue playing or repair their public image.
In the case of the GWS players, the AFL’s sanctions indicate the code’s willingness to take a stance on breaches of conduct.
However, that the players believed their costumes and skits were acceptable in the first place indicates deep-seated issues in attitudes towards women.
In each of the costume examples, sexual and racial violence formed key elements of the “joke”, indicating the AFL’s education and training on equity and diversity is not working.
It is often suggested that boys and young men require positive role models and that AFL players fit the bill, although research is not clear on whether the gender of supportive adults is relevant.
At the moment, there is significant concern within the community about the influence of dangerous misogynist influencers on boys’ attitudes and behaviour towards women.
Research suggests that while some young men have the skills to be critical about the messages they receive about violence and sexism, they still experience pressure to live up to restrictive rules on what it means to be a “real man.”
Many Australians highly value AFL players’ skills and abilities on the field. This admiration and respect can also extend to their off-field lives.
But it doesn’t mean AFL players are beyond reproach.
More needs to be done
The impacts of men’s violence on their victims are horrific and myriad.
This year, the AFL partnered with Our Watch – a national leader in the primary prevention of violence against women and their children – to provide training to players and clubs and help them understand:
the link between gender inequality and violence against women
the role of sport in promoting gender equality
and what players can do to be active allies including taking action when they see or hear disrespect.
While this is promising, this education must result in changed behaviour, attitudes and accountability.
The Australian government has recently labelled violence against women a “national emergency”. Major sporting codes need to take a leading role in addressing it.
It’s time for the AFL to honestly confront their problems with misogyny and violence against women.
Stephanie Wescott receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS)
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the group’s horrific October 7 2023 attack on southern Israel, is no doubt a consequential moment in Israel’s year-long war against Hamas.
But is it a turning point?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sinwar’s killing – long a major objective of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) – would signal the “beginning of the end” of the war. But he made clear the war is not over.
In fact, Benny Gantz, a former defence minister and member of the war cabinet, said the IDF would continue to operate in Gaza “for years to come”.
So, what exactly will be the impact of Sinwar’s death?
Does this change anything?
Sinwar’s death does change at least one aspect of the war. He was an iconic figure, for better or worse, for Palestinians. He was seen as someone who was taking the fight to Israel.
With Sinwar still alive and Hamas hitting back at Israel’s war in Gaza, the group was actually increasing in popularity.
Opinion polling in late May showed support for Hamas among Palestinians in the Occupied Territories had reached 40%, a six-point increase from three months earlier. Support for the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, was about half that.
Sinwar’s demise changes the face of Hamas. It could be a major turning point if Hamas is unable to replace him with a leader as strong as he was.
One of the names being discussed is Khaled Mashal, the former head of Hamas’ political office who still remains influential in the organisation.
This moment offers an opportunity for a new Hamas leader to seek a ceasefire with Israel and an end to the horrific conditions in which Gazans are living. But there’s still the question of whether Sinwar’s death achieves Israel’s war objectives.
What would constitute a victory for Netanyahu?
The main issue is that Netanyahu’s war aims have not yet been achieved:
the elimination of Hamas as a fighting force and a danger to Israel
the freeing of the roughly 100 Israeli hostages still believed to be held in Gaza, as many as half of whom may now be dead
the re-establishment of deterrence with Hezbollah in Lebanon to allow the 60,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from northern Israel to return home.
Although the killing of Sinwar is a major step towards restricting Hamas’ ability to maintain its war against the IDF in Gaza, Israeli soldiers still face some very significant problems there.
Over the past year, Hamas has morphed from an organised fighting force into guerrilla mode, which makes its fighters much more difficult to eliminate completely.
The classic methodology for dealing with a guerrilla force is “clear, hold and build”. This means you clear an area of the enemy, put troops in to hold the area, and then build an environment in which the enemy can’t re-establish itself.
Israel can certainly do the “clearing” and “holding”, but has not been able to build an environment in which Hamas can no longer operate.
Israeli journalists who have been embedded with Israeli forces have made the point that Hamas operatives are returning to areas that were previously cleared by the IDF, in part due to the group’s extensive tunnel network.
Other complications for Netanyahu
Another issue for Netanyahu is that right-wing members of his cabinet have threatened to resign from his governing coalition if he agrees to a ceasefire before Hamas is destroyed as a fighting force. They believe Hamas could use a ceasefire to regroup and re-establish itself as a serious threat to Israel.
At the same time, Netanyahu is also facing increasing pressure over the fate of the hostages. If there isn’t a ceasefire and negotiations to release them, their families and supporters will continue the large demonstrations they have been staging in Israel in recent months. They are desperate to get back any hostages who may still be alive and the remains of those who have died.
Netanyahu is also still weighing Israel’s promised retaliation against Iran for its missile attack against the Jewish state in early October.
If Israel does launch a major strike, what does Iran do in response? Iran’s problem is that it had always relied on a strong Hezbollah in Lebanon to be able to respond to Israel militarily on its behalf. And now it seems to have lost that as Hezbollah has been significantly weakened in recent weeks.
The US sees a potential off-ramp
Another aspect, of course, is where the United States stands on this. The US has made clear it sees Sinwar’s death as being an off-ramp for Israel in Gaza – it can claim a major strategic victory and essentially agree to a ceasefire.
In recent weeks, the US has also given Israel an ultimatum, saying if there isn’t an improvement in the amount of humanitarian aid going into Gaza by the end of November, it will cut off some military aid to Israel.
The Democrats want the war to end as soon as possible, because while it’s on the front pages of US newspapers, it divides the party and could encourage some voters not to come out and vote in the presidential election.
So it’s very important for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, that there be a ceasefire as soon as possible. She said as much in her remarks today:
Hamas is decimated and its leadership is eliminated. This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.
The problem, however, is that Netanyahu has shown in the past he is prepared to go against US wishes whenever it suits him. And a ceasefire does not suit his purposes at this point.
Given Republican nominee Donald Trump’s steadfast support for Netanyahu, the Israeli leader would also be more than happy to see him return to the White House.
What’s most likely to happen
Taking all of these factors into account, Netanyahu is likely to prioritise keeping his government together.
As such, he will be more guided by its very right-wing members – Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – than by the US or the families of the hostages.
AFter Sinwar’s death, Smotrich said the IDF “must increase intense military pressure in the Strip”, while Ben Gvir called on Israel to “continue with all our strength until absolute victory”.
So at this stage, it seems likely the war will continue until Netanyahu can say Hamas has been destroyed as a fighting force. That is what his cabinet is demanding to achieve the government’s war aims.
Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
