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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Education and gender equality: focus on girls isn’t fair and isn’t enough – global study

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kathryn Watt, Research Manager, The Asenze Project, University of KwaZulu-Natal

    For the past two decades, investing in girls’ schooling has been hailed as a cornerstone of promoting gender equality in sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2016 and 2018 the World Bank Group invested US$3.2 billion in education projects benefiting adolescent girls.

    The logic is straightforward. Girls face significant barriers to education, among them poverty, insufficient academic support, adolescent pregnancy, child marriage, and school related gender-based violence. Reducing these barriers can substantially improve their educational outcomes.

    But is this approach – investing in girls’ education – fair to boys, and enough to make a meaningful impact on girls’ lives in the long term? Having studied the relationship between interventions and the way people’s lives develop in adverse contexts, we argue that the answer is no on both counts.

    We explain this view in a recent paper. In it we compare the different effects of directing development assistance: improving girls’ school enrolment, prioritising schooling for both girls and boys, and addressing barriers to gender equality throughout life.

    We used publicly available data for 136 low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. We calculated the female-to-male ratio for important education indicators in each country to show where girls are ahead, on par or behind boys.

    Our findings suggest that the current focus on girls’ schooling may both unintentionally disadvantage boys and be a relatively inefficient means of advancing gender equality.

    Girls’ and boys’ education in sub-Saharan Africa

    We focused on two indicators to assess the current state of girls’ and boys’ education in the region:

    Harmonised learning outcomes measure learning and progress based on the results from seven different types of tests combined and made comparable among children attending school. They reflect the environmental inputs into learning and achievement, such as school quality. Completing secondary school, meanwhile, has been shown to increase a person’s potential for future development, opportunities for employment and higher education.

    In most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, girls are behind boys on secondary school completion. The average completion rate for boys is 30%. For girls it is just 24%. In southern Africa specifically, girls have higher completion rates than boys. Figure 1 shows where girls are ahead or behind on this indicator.

    In sub-Saharan Africa, the average harmonised learning outcomes score for boys is 301; it is 303 for girls. Our results show that, for most countries in the region, girls are achieving roughly equal scores to their male peers.

    This suggests that gender gaps in education are not as pronounced as is often portrayed.

    Firstly, although school completion rates are higher for boys, this gap is small, and overall completion rates remain low for both genders.

    Secondly, where boys are averaging higher levels of completed schooling, it is not due to better academic performance. Once enrolled, girls in the region tend to keep up with boys in school completion and academic performance.

    Rather than asking who is ahead, it’s more important to note that neither boys nor girls are doing well. Our results show that educational outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa – including school performance and completion – are alarmingly poor for both girls and boys.

    So, if all children in the region are clearly in need of support, why target education interventions at girls alone?

    Large disparities in later life

    The key to gender equality lies in ensuring girls and boys, and men and women, have the same opportunities to reach their potential from early life, through late childhood and adolescence, into adulthood.

    Research emphasises that human development does not hinge on any single factor such as schooling. Rather, it depends on capabilities built throughout life.

    In early childhood, proper nutrition, among other things, is crucial for developing a child’s basic physical and cognitive capabilities. These early investments protect the potential for human development.

    During childhood and adolescence, factors like quality schooling and social support allow young people to realise that potential.

    Finally, in adulthood, social norms and job opportunities determine how fully a person can use their realised potential.

    Our findings suggest that, on average, in low- and middle-income countries the development potential of girls and young women is protected and realised better than it is for boys and young men. But later in life, women don’t have as many opportunities as men to use that potential.

    This implies that initiatives focused on girls’ schooling are likely not the most effective means of promoting girls’ development or reducing gender gaps.

    Large disparities emerge later in girls’ lives. For example, our findings show that women earn less than men in almost every country in sub-Saharan Africa. These results reflect how patriarchal norms, particularly the unequal burden of housework and childcare, tend to push women into lower-paid informal or part-time work. Even when similarly qualified and in comparable positions, women typically earn less than men.

    These findings, when considered in the context of the current state of education in the region, challenge the idea that focusing solely on girls’ education is enough to promote their lifelong development or meaningfully reduce gender inequalities.

    The argument that boys should not receive the same support as girls is weak.

    How to promote greater gender equality in sub-Saharan Africa

    Targeted interventions are likely to have the greatest impact where girls and women face the greatest barriers: in using their potential. That means, for example:

    Social protection policies, including childcare and reproductive health services, can ease women’s caregiving burden and give them the time and agency to fully participate in politics, the economy and society.

    There are also opportunities beyond government, where support for trade unions, for instance, has been shown to help narrow gender wage gaps.

    Addressing gender inequality requires a life-course approach. It should involve quality education for both genders, and tackling the policies, practices and social norms that marginalise women and girls, especially in the later stages of their lives.

    Sara Naicker, Jere Behrman and Linda Richter contributed to the research this article is based on. Dhyan Saravanja contributed to this article.

    Chris Desmond receives funding from UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund Accelerating Achievement for Africa’s Adolescents Hub,Grant/Award Number: ES/S008101/1

    Kathryn Watt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Education and gender equality: focus on girls isn’t fair and isn’t enough – global study – https://theconversation.com/education-and-gender-equality-focus-on-girls-isnt-fair-and-isnt-enough-global-study-240239

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Zimbabwe’s ZiG: devaluations won’t fix a currency that’s in trouble because of government overspending

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jonathan Munemo, Professor of Economics, Salisbury University

    The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe devalued the ZiG by 43% on 27 September 2024. This weakened the official exchange rate from 13.9 ZiG per US dollar to 24.4 ZiG per US dollar.

    The ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) is the nation’s newest currency and was launched in April 2024.

    The unexpected devaluation was prompted by the need to contain resurgent exchange rate pressure which started back in August due to higher food import costs and a slide in mineral export sales. The central bank decided to ease this pressure by lowering the value of the currency instead of burning reserves to keep its value steady at 13.9 ZiG per dollar.

    The strain on the ZiG has intensified in the aftermath of the devaluation. It has weakened even further to more than 26 ZiG per dollar as of 18 October. This has raised speculation that it will continue to weaken.

    This would have a number of negative consequences. It would keep upward pressure on import prices, hurting households and businesses. If this happened, Zimbabwean households already hit by falling paycheques and savings might cut back further on spending.

    The strain on the currency also risks reigniting inflation. The risk comes after monthly inflation ticked up to 1.4% in August and then climbed to 5.8% in September. Resurgent inflation would also increase costs for businesses and threaten to stifle investment. That was on display in 2000-08 and 2019-20 when price instability dampened economic activity and created a costly business environment which discouraged investment.

    A further risk factor from currency instability is that it would deter foreign investors worried about the ZiG as a reliable store of value. The prospect of declining business investment, loss of confidence in the ZiG, and anaemic consumption would in turn be a major drag on economic activity. Economic growth in 2024 is expected to slow down to 2% from 5% last year. El Niño-induced drought, lower mining prices, and macroeconomic instability are among the key reasons.

    This is the sixth time Zimbabwe’s authorities have attempted to establish a stable national currency in the past 15 years. The history of failed attempts has cast a long shadow on the ZiG. The recent devaluation has not eased concerns about Zimbabwe’s struggles to develop and maintain a domestic currency that can be widely used for transactions and as a store of value on a voluntary basis.

    I have long thought the devaluation was inevitable. Authorities must confront the fundamental causes, which are rooted in a loss of faith in the ability of government to manage spending. In particular, its habit of printing money, overspending on its budgets and failing to expand the economy.

    Interventions

    The ZiG is part of a multicurrency system which allows individuals to use other major currencies including the US dollar, euro, South African rand and pound sterling.

    To increase the ZiG’s uptake, authorities imposed a number of measures. The new unit has to be used for paying a portion of company taxes and most government services. Fines are issued to traders unwilling to accept ZiG payments.

    Measures like these are not sufficient because they do not consider the real problems hindering success of the Zimbabwe dollar.

    The central bank also announced that it aims to slow the ZiG’s decline by imposing currency controls and raising the benchmark policy rate (the rate used to implement its monetary policy) from 20% to 35%. The jump in the cost of borrowing triggered by these measures will further weigh on business investment and consumer spending.

    Gains to Zimbabwean exporters from a cheaper ZiG are unlikely to be substantial because of an El Niño-induced drought which has devastated crops in southern Africa. And dollar earnings for Zimbabwe’s mineral exports have been hurt by lower commodity prices. The agriculture and food sector contributes about 17% to GDP and 40% of total export earnings on average, while mining accounts for about 12% of GDP and 80% of total exports.

    My worry is that a cheaper ZiG may not juice exports and reduce the trade shortfall of US$1,453 million recorded last year, given the hit to commodity prices and adverse impact of drought on agricultural production. A bigger trade deficit will keep downward pressure on the currency. The weaker ZiG could however boost inbound tourism.

    To retain a stable domestic currency, authorities will have to address deeper structural causes rooted in the country’s long history of printing money to pay for government overspending amid slow economic expansion. That means:

    • slashing the budget while giving greater spending priority to health, education, public infrastructure and other critical investments.

    • government weaning itself off dependence on printing money to finance fiscal deficits

    • supporting credible policies for more sustainable and private-sector led growth and policies for capturing more revenue from growth.

    Precedents

    This is not the first time that the Zimbabwe dollar has been unstable and weak. In the 2000s, printing money to finance government deficit spending produced periods of high inflation amid slow growth, making the currency weak and unstable.

    The currency eventually collapsed in 2009 due to hyperinflation and the US dollar became the official currency.

    Another local currency (the RTGS dollar) was later introduced in 2019. With the power to print more money restored, inflation rapidly accelerated and surpassed 500% in 2020. This made the new Zimbabwe dollar highly unstable and its value quickly deteriorated.

    As a result, the US dollar continued to be the dominant currency used in transactions and as a store of value. Inflation remained elevated until April 2024, when the ZiG was launched as the new national currency. Its value is backed by gold and foreign currency reserves.

    At first the move seemed to have tamed inflation. But widespread voluntary use of the ZiG failed to materialise. That’s because people are still wary of the government’s power to print money, which had been the key driver of inflation and currency instability.

    What policy makers can do

    Authorities must tackle the root causes of the nation’s currency struggles once and for all. Steps that can be taken to resolve longstanding structural factors include:

    • Re-prioritising public spending by undertaking deep fiscal reforms that will divert more resources towards spending on health, education, public infrastructure and other critical investments needed to boost growth. These reforms should also aim to capture more revenue from growth, for example, through tax reforms.

    • Implementing reforms to address corruption and improve governance is essential for imposing the discipline necessary to push back against covering fiscal deficits by printing money and for restoring faith in government institutions.

    • Pursuing credible policies for more sustainable and private-sector led growth. Strong growth expands tax revenues and gives the government more policy space to spend on essential services and critical investment needs.

    Devaluation and other measures that have been imposed to support the ZiG are not the solution.

    Jonathan Munemo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Zimbabwe’s ZiG: devaluations won’t fix a currency that’s in trouble because of government overspending – https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-zig-devaluations-wont-fix-a-currency-thats-in-trouble-because-of-government-overspending-241686

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Poverty in Lagos isn’t just about money – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Oluwaseyi Omowunmi Popogbe, Lecturer II, Crawford University

    Lagos is Nigeria’s economic powerhouse, but it has some of the worst slums in the country.

    Lagos slums are characterised by high levels of poverty – the state of not having enough resources to meet basic needs for living, such as food, water, shelter, healthcare and education.

    Poverty is multidimensional. It is not only about money. Yet poverty in Lagos slums has often been studied using traditional methods that focus mostly on income thresholds. A person is considered poor if their income falls below a certain level. This approach captures financial hardship. But it misses other aspects of poverty, such as lack of access to education, healthcare, clean water and decent living conditions.

    Measuring poverty requires a multidimensional approach, not simply an income approach. Multidimensional poverty means looking at all the aspects of deprivation to get a fuller picture of what it means to live in poverty. It helps policymakers and researchers understand that even with some income, a person may still be struggling because they don’t have other essential services.

    In a study of poverty in the Lagos State slums, two other development economists and I used a mathematical framework to model multidimensional poverty. We used what is known as the fuzzy set approach. This was developed in the 1990s as an alternative to purely monetary measures of poverty.

    The traditional monetary approach often classifies people as either “poor” or “not poor” based on specific cut-off points. In reality, poverty exists on a spectrum, and people can experience different levels of deprivation across various aspects of their lives. The fuzzy set approach accounts for this by assigning degrees of membership to different poverty indicators.

    We found considerable disparities in poverty, based on a multidimensional index, across slums in Lagos State. Our insights will enable economists and policymakers to see the different ways people in slums are deprived. In turn this should help them understand how to make their lives better in a more targeted and effective way.

    Background and methodological approach

    Our study focused on five big slums that lie close to the coastal line in Lagos state. These are among the slums the World Bank has identified for upgrading as part of a US$200 million loan project to improve drainage and solid waste management.

    We chose 400 respondents from the five slums: Makoko, Iwaya, Ilaje, Ijora Badia and Amukoko.

    According to Avijit Hazra and Nithya J Gogtay, researchers in bio-statistics and research methodology, a minimum of 384 samples is appropriate for a large population size. Nevertheless, the selected sample for this study limits the ability to generalise the findings to other slums, especially those with different characteristics.

    Findings

    The multidimensional poverty index was highest in Makoko and Iwaya. These scores indicate severe poverty, as they are above the threshold of 0.50.

    In contrast, Amukoko had the lowest multidimensional poverty index, showing relatively less severe deprivation across indicators.

    Makoko and Iwaya are particularly deprived in areas like schooling, sanitation and nutrition. This explains their higher poverty levels compared to other communities.

    Makoko’s location along the coast, with its makeshift housing and poor infrastructure, adds to its vulnerability. Iwaya shares similar challenges in education and health services. These factors make both areas more deprived than other slums.

    Of the three broad poverty dimensions measured, education emerged with the highest deprivation across all communities. This highlighted the limited formal education among residents.

    Specifically, Makoko and Iwaya showed the highest deprivation in schooling. Despite some improvements, particularly in child enrolment, these communities are still marked by severe deprivation.

    The second dimension exhibiting severe deprivation was living standards. There were variations across different slums. Makoko and Iwaya had higher sanitation challenges.

    The third dimension in the severe deprivation category was health. Indicators included mortality and nutrition. They were high across many slums, contributing significantly to their multidimensional poverty indexes.

    Other communities, such as Amukoko (0.0312), showed better sanitation outcomes. On the other hand, electricity, flooring and cooking fuel indicators generally showed lower levels of deprivation, with most slums scoring around or below 0.03 in these categories.

    The prevalence of both serious and minor illnesses, coupled with insufficient medical care, contributed to high mortality rates.

    Poor sanitation could also be a factor in health issues. In Makoko and Iwaya, toilet facilities and waste management were poor, with waste often disposed of in waterways.

    Despite this, personal hygiene practices such as using clean water, soap and regular brushing were prevalent. This helped keep the sanitation index relatively low compared with other factors affecting health.

    Other slums had relatively better-organised waste collection systems and generally improved sanitation practices.

    What needs to be done

    Policymakers should prioritise education-focused initiatives. This should include improving access to quality schools, providing scholarships and setting up adult literacy programmes.

    The study also highlights challenges related to sanitation, especially in Makoko and Iwaya. There is a need for improved infrastructure in these areas, such as better sanitation facilities, waste management systems and access to clean water.

    Policies should focus on upgrading sanitation services to reduce health risks and improve living conditions.

    But the differences in poverty index across slums indicate varying levels of deprivation, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all approach will not be effective.

    Coastal slums like Makoko and Iwaya require more intensive interventions compared to slums not directly on coastal lines such as Amukoko.

    Policymakers should focus resources where they are most needed to have the greatest impact.

    Slums like Ilaje and Ijora Badia are close to the threshold of severe poverty. Policymakers need to take proactive measures to prevent these communities from falling into severe deprivation.

    Lastly, it is important to use data to identify priority areas and develop targeted interventions aimed at improving the quality of life for slum dwellers.

    Instead of relying on generalised approaches, the insights from this study can facilitate the design of specific policies that address the distinct needs of each community.

    Oluwaseyi Omowunmi Popogbe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Poverty in Lagos isn’t just about money – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/poverty-in-lagos-isnt-just-about-money-heres-why-240847

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: We have bigger issues around freedom of speech than Lidia Thorpe’s noisy protest

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    King Charles – as the old-fashioned saying goes – didn’t come down in the last shower. He’s unlikely to have been fazed by the outburst from independent senator Lidia Thorpe, who disrupted Monday’s Parliament House reception for the royals.

    And neither, frankly, should anyone else.

    Thorpe, clad in a possum-skin cloak, shouted: “You are not our king.”

    “You destroyed our land. Give us a treaty. We want a treaty in this country. You are a genocidalist.”

    “You committed genocide against our people. Give us our land back. Give us what you stole from us – our bones, our skulls, our babies, our people.”

    The conduct of Thorpe, who used to be with the Greens and is an outspoken advocate of ‘Blak sovereignty’, was rude, albeit absolutely in character. She acts up in the parliament regularly.

    As a senator, Thorpe, who was escorted out of the Great Hall, still yelling, had the right to be at the reception. And it is not the only time a parliamentarian has created a fuss when a dignitary was visiting. In 2003, Greens senator Bob Brown shouted out during the address to the joint houses by US President George W. Bush.

    While not at all condoning Thorpe’s exhibitionism, she wasn’t inciting violence. Was she bringing our parliament into disrepute? Sadly, many parliamentarians do that all the time in less dramatic ways, as visitors to question time will tell you.

    Those muttering that perhaps there should be some parliamentary censure of Thorpe are misguided. As Senate Opposition leader Simon Birmingham pointed out on Tuesday, Thorpe “would probably revel in being censured by the Senate”. The one thing she wants is publicity.

    Thorpe pushes her right to air her views to the limit, but her antics are not at the sharp end of the current “free speech” debate in this country. There are two, very different and much more important, fronts in that debate.

    One relates to the pro-Palestine demonstrations. The other is the government’s attempt to crack down on misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms.

    Those on the political right tend to play down worries about limiting free expression when it comes to the pro-Palestinian demonstrations. On the other hand, they are worried about putting more restrictions on the internet. Those on the left tend to support the battle against misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms, and are less worried about its free speech impact.

    Increasing antisemitism has fuelled calls for the ubiquitous pro-Palestinian protests to be curbed in some way.

    Critics highlight the hate preached on occasion; they say the demonstrations make Jewish Australians feel unsafe, disrupt citizens’ weekends, and are a drag on police resources.

    What are the relevant rights here, and their comparative weights? The right to free expression and protest. The right to feel safe. The right for people to go about their business without undue inconvenience. The tradeoffs are much more complicated than any questions thrown up by Thorpe’s behaviour.

    The number and regularity of the pro-Palestine demonstrations have driven some critics to argue enough is enough. That is not convincing, and nor is the argument that these protests soak up police resources. Unfortunately, these are the costs of preserving the right to protest.

    Much more troubling is that these protests can foster hate and make people feel threatened in their own country. Here balances must be carefully struck, and that’s hard.

    Incitement laws must be enforced. Beyond that, demonstrations have to be managed, so that the protesters’ right to have their say and the safety of others, especially a vulnerable section of the population, are both preserved.

    So for example, it’s important university campuses can have protests (as they always have). But “encampments” on campuses have been properly condemned and should not be allowed.

    Even more complex in the free speech debate is how to deal with disinformation (the deliberate spread of false information) and misinformation (where the misleading is not deliberate).

    The government presently has a bill in parliament seeking to combat misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms. It is a reworked version of a much-attacked earlier draft.

    In her second reading speech on the bill last month, Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said:

    To protect freedom of speech, the bill [which does not apply to “professional news content”] sets a high threshold for the type of misinformation and disinformation that digital platforms must combat on their services – that is, it must be reasonably verifiable as false, misleading or deceptive and reasonably likely to cause or contribute to serious harm.

    The harm must have significant and far-reaching consequences for Australian society, or severe consequences for an individual in Australia.

    Among the “serious harms” in the bill is “harm to the operation or integrity of an electoral or referendum process in Australia”.

    The struggle against misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms will always be a losing one. The reach is just too vast.

    But more particularly, there is also the problem that what is “misinformation” and “disinformation” can be less clear than one might think. On occasion, what seems wrong at the time turns out to be correct later.

    Beyond those obvious points, some material so-labelled is not one or the other but disputed information.

    For example, proponents of the Voice have blamed its loss at least partly on misinformation and disinformation. However, much of this involved highly contested claims, especially about an unpredictable future.

    What this legislation does is push as much responsibility as it can, backed by a regulatory framework, onto the platforms to do the censoring of misinformation and disinformation, thus trying to avoid constitutional issues of implied freedom of political communication.

    Human rights lawyer Frank Brennan has written, “The real challenge for Minister Rowland is that debating such a detailed bill without the backstop of a constitutional or statutory bill of rights recognising the right to freedom of expression, there are no clear guard rails for getting the balance right for ‘the freedom of expression that is so fundamental to our democracy’.”

    All things considered, It is hard to see the bill clearing its obstacle course before the election.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: We have bigger issues around freedom of speech than Lidia Thorpe’s noisy protest – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-we-have-bigger-issues-around-freedom-of-speech-than-lidia-thorpes-noisy-protest-241906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cameroon after Paul Biya: poverty, uncertainty and a precarious succession battle

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham

    Cameroon’s President Paul Biya is 91 years old. He is Africa’s oldest head of state and only one has served longer: President Teodoro Obiang Nguema of neighbouring Equatorial Guinea, who is 82 years old.

    Biya has been Cameroon’s president since 1982. Prior to that, he was prime minister from 1975.

    In recent weeks there has been growing speculation about the nonagenarian’s health. Some rumours even suggested that he had died. This led the Cameroonian government to issue a statement banning all reports about his health.

    These cycles of rumour have recurred whenever Biya has “gone missing” for extended periods of time. Before he arrived at Yaoundé’s international airport on 21 October, Biya was last seen in public on 8 September, when he attended a China-Africa forum in Beijing.

    Cameroon has known only two presidents since independence. For 60% of the country’s youth population, Biya is the only president they have known.



    Read more:
    Paul Biya has been Cameroon’s president for 40 years – and he might win office yet again

    The country finds itself in a precarious situation, uncertain about what will happen after Biya, who has ruled with an iron fist.

    Long term incumbencies don’t usually end well. Examples across the continent illustrate the high potential for political instability. The most vivid cases include Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Gabon, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    For me as an associate professor of international studies and researcher of regime transformation in Africa, Cameroon holds specific interest because of its regime resilience over the decades, when many in the region haven’t fared as well.

    My view is that Cameroon will, sooner rather than later, hit an inflection point post-Biya. Cameroon lacks strong constitutional guard rails, so succession is bound to be a very messy affair.

    Second, due to years of nepotism and tribalism institutionalised by Biya, there will be heightened potential for regional and ethnic tensions or conflict – even a general breakdown of law and order.

    Lastly, the military establishment could well make a move in the name of safeguarding the republic in times of uncertainty.

    The legacy

    Cameroon is endowed with abundant resources, including oil, gas and timber. It is also strategically located at a crossroads between west and central Africa on the Atlantic coast, an entry point to landlocked inner regions.

    Yet, according to the World Food Programme, over 55% of Cameroonians live in poverty and 37.7% are severely impoverished.

    The country’s infrastructure is in poor shape. While the Douala port has been modernised and railway regional linkages such as the Douala-Yaoundé lines have been expanded, road and railway infrastructure are barely functional.

    According to Transparency International, corruption is endemic in Cameroon. The country ranks 140th out of 180. This is despite official efforts to do something about it.

    In 1982 Biya capitalised on the anti-corruption sentiment that had been directed at the Amadou Ahidjo regime. Biya promised an anti-corruption “new deal”. Despite initial progress, by the early 1990s Cameroon was topping the world’s corruption tables.

    Critics suggest that Biya has also used his anti-corruption drive to keep his potential competitors in check.

    Nepotism and tribalism continue as Biya has established a patron-client state system. For example, the Beti people, who are the president’s ethnic kin, are reported to take up a disproportionate slice of senior positions in government and the military. Yet they account for a small percentage of the population.

    This has bred a kleptocratic system matched only by widespread communal resentment.



    Read more:
    Cameroon: how language plunged a country into deadly conflict with no end in sight

    There are other deep fissures in Cameroonian society. Socially, the country became a federated entity at independence in 1960. Two language groups – French and English speaking – came together for a United Republic of Cameroon.

    For a while this unity held. But increasing disenchantment with Biya’s regime, especially the marginalisation of the Anglophone south-west, developed into a rebellion in 2016. Thousands of people have been killed and tens of thousands displaced. It has also resulted in an increased crackdown by the central authority.

    Today, Cameroon is a fractured society with the south-west calling for increased autonomy and language justice and even self-determination. The creation of the Commission of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism and designating special status to the rebellious regions has done little to quell the crisis.

    Regional role

    Regionally, Cameroon has been a key partner for the US and France through tackling Boko Haram in the region. The country has been directly affected by the attacks of this Islamist group, which originated in Nigeria and has extended its reign of terror across the region.

    The anti-terror campaign has seen a close US-France-Cameroon relationship with military and intelligence strategic cooperation.

    Equally Biya can be lauded for having peacefully settled the Bakassi peninsula crisis with Nigeria, a territorial border dispute, thereby averting regional instability.

    There are not yet obvious signs that, after Biya, the Franco-Cameroon relationship would come under strain similar to other scenarios in the region.

    France has built a steady political and economic relationship with Cameroon, investing heavily in the region, providing political cover to the regime and entering into a defence pact.

    This relationship has also benefited many a political and military elite. Barring any monumental development, it is bound to be sustained in the post-Biya era.



    Read more:
    Cameroon spends 90% of Chinese development loans on its French region: this could deepen the country’s divisions

    Fractured political landscape

    Biya’s longevity at the helm of Cameroon politics is testament to his ability to mobilise all state resources, power and constitutional levers for his lifetime presidency. He has outmanoeuvred all political competitors.

    This has enabled him to avoid the fate of neighbouring countries such as Central African Republic, Niger, Chad and Gabon, where governments have been overthrown by military coups.

    In 1992 Biya agreed to a multiparty dispensation. But since then, he has engineered removal of term limits and he is on his seventh term of office.

    But in the evening of his years, and in the absence of a designated successor or an elite pact, there is a real possibility that various factions of the Biya regime such as that of Frank Biya, Ngoh Ngoh, Laurent Esso or even the military will jostle and fight for power.

    Without a political culture of constitutional constraint, instability seems inevitable. And the south-west rebellion might escalate its military and political pressure for better leverage with whoever comes to power post-Biya.

    Whether the next political leadership will be able to set a transformative agenda for socio-political reconciliation and national renewal will be dictated by their ability to strike a grand compromise.

    David E Kiwuwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cameroon after Paul Biya: poverty, uncertainty and a precarious succession battle – https://theconversation.com/cameroon-after-paul-biya-poverty-uncertainty-and-a-precarious-succession-battle-241312

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How finance can be part of the solution to the world’s biodiversity crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma O’Donnell, Research Assistant, Environmental Change Institute and PhD Candidate, Nature-based Solutions Initiative, University of Oxford

    Nature loss should be treated with the same urgency as climate change. NOBUHIRO ASADA/Shutterstock

    More than half of the world’s total GDP is at least moderately dependent on nature. Yet arguably, there is no economy (or life) without nature. A quarter of animal and planet species are now threatened, and 14 out of 18 key ecosystem services – including fertile soils to grow food, flood and disease control and regulation of air and water pollution – are in decline.

    These ecosystem services are essential and have no easy substitutes. Despite this, almost US$7 trillion (£5.4 trillion) per year is spent by governments and the private sector on subsidies and economic activities that have a negative impact on nature – including intensive agriculture and fossil-fuel subsidies. This compares to only US$200 billion that is spent on nature-based solutions (just a third of what is estimated to be needed).

    Although the biodiversity crisis has often been overshadowed by climate change on the global stage, the tide is turning. In 2022, the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework was adopted with its overarching goal to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.

    At the end of October 2024, the signatories of the framework will again come together at the UN’s Cop16 biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, to negotiate the implementation of their targets. To make progress towards these goals, Cop16 aims to align finance with the framework; effectively ensuring finance is part of the solution rather than the problem.

    To do this, the flow of finance will need to be redirected. A central lever in this is the pricing of risk. Financial institutions face significant risk, both from the degradation of ecosystem services (physical risks) and the social responses to degradation, including regulation and changing consumer demand (transition risks). Yet these risks are not fully priced into financial decisions.

    On top of this, corporations do not disclose their nature-related risks, dependencies and impacts, making it difficult for financial institutions to understand the implications of their investments. Together, this means that finance continues to flow unhindered into riskier activities.

    Central banks are now starting to highlight risks from nature to financial institutions and to explore the areas where these risks manifest in the financial system.

    The financial risks are real

    Earlier this year, we published the first study of the seriousness of nature-related financial risks.

    We found that, for the UK, nature-related shocks could cause a 6% decline in GDP by 2030 under scenarios such as soil health decline or water scarcity putting pressure on global supply chains. And there could be a drop in GDP of more than 12% in the scenario of an antimicrobial resistance or pandemic shock, driven by increased human-wildlife interaction due to habitat loss and deforestation.

    These results are equal to or even greater than the UK’s 6% decrease in GDP after the 2008 financial crisis and 9.7% during the 2020 COVID lockdowns.

    We also found that nature-related financial risks were of a similar scale to climate-related risks. Nature loss and climate change occur in parallel, amplify and compound each other. As such, it is essential that solutions look to solve both challenges simultaneously. After all, what is the point of having a cooler planet that is no longer livable?

    Of its 23 targets for 2030, the GBF includes two goals that specifically address finance. Target 18 aims to reduce incentives for financial flows that damage nature by at least US$500 billion per year and scale up incentives for nature-positive financial flows. And target 19 aims to mobilise US$200 billion per year for restoring and protecting nature, including at least US$30 billion from international finance flowing from developed to developing countries. A further target, target 15, calls for the disclosure of nature-related risks, dependencies and impacts by firms.

    COP16 gets under way in Cali, Colombia.

    So, what do we need from Cop16 to pull the financial risk lever?

    First, there must be international recognition that the long-term, widespread and often irreversible risks of the biodiversity crisis are not being priced by the financial system, despite progress on the integration of climate risks. This can cause a buildup of systemic risks and lead to financial instability; as such, there must be a global consensus that central banks play a key role in taking proactive measures to manage this.

    Second, at the individual, corporate and financial institution level, firms must manage and disclose their nature-related financial risks, alongside their climate risks.

    Third, similar to transition finance for net zero, financial institutions must begin to engage actively with clients to explore opportunities to support their transition towards more nature-positive activities and reflect this within their transition plans.

    Securing financial resilience and nature and climate goals are synonymous; and all are essential for securing economic growth and sustainable development globally.

    Emma O’Donnell receives funding from the UK Natural Science Research Council.

    Jimena Alvarez receives funding from UK Natural Environment Research Council.

    Nicola Ranger receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, Climate Arc and EU Horizon

    – ref. How finance can be part of the solution to the world’s biodiversity crisis – https://theconversation.com/how-finance-can-be-part-of-the-solution-to-the-worlds-biodiversity-crisis-241829

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kim Jong-un sends North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine – here’s what this means for the war

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ra Mason, Lecturer in International Relations and Japanese Foreign Policy, University of East Anglia

    It is still unclear how many North Korean soldiers will find their way onto the killing fields of eastern Ukraine. What is clear is that the drive to recruit fighting forces from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is at least in part politically motivated. But is it also a tactical masterstroke that will boost the Russian war machine’s chances of a definitive victory?

    The political aspect appears straightforward. The use of foreign forces from an enemy of the United States demonstrates a clear show of opposition towards the Washington-led global order. It also deals a further blow to the myth that the Russian Federation is isolated, as an international pariah, in a world led by western powers.

    But despite boosting troop numbers, there are multiple problems with these would-be mercenaries from the far east joining Putin’s forces on the front line in Europe. North Korea is impoverished and authoritarian. This means its personnel are mostly poorly equipped, unmotivated and undernourished. Where and how they are deployed will, therefore, likely be critical.

    If sent into new theatres of war against state-of-the-art Nato-supplied weaponry, it could effectively mean waves of ill-prepared cannon fodder being thrown into the meat grinder of Donbas’ trenches. Most would surely be killed by FPV (first-person view) drones or western tank fire.

    Defections could well pose an additional risk. If commanded outside the immediate control of Korean officers in the field, some will doubtless view this as a chance to escape oppression and poverty in their homeland. Desertions en masse to the Ukrainian side might become a possibility. Even more so if identified and directed how to surrender by Ukrainian, or other, special forces on the ground.

    Considering these seemingly obvious flaws, it would be easy to assume the deliberate showcasing of training camps in eastern Russia for North Korean soldiers is little more than a political gimmick. One that is designed to strike fear into an already struggling Ukrainian army and poke its western backers in the eye. At the same time, there may be cause to think there is more to this move than pure politics.

    Rules of engagement

    The difference between supplying artillery shells for Russian guns and putting bodies on the line is stark.

    But this fundamental difference does not necessarily mean that there is no tactical value to the deployment of Korean forces on the battlefield. The key likely lies in where and how they are deployed.

    There is the immediate question of international law. Or, perhaps more importantly, how Nato countries might respond to further breaches of the established rules of engagement by Russian directed foreign forces. For sure, use of Korean mercenaries to fight in the Donbas region, which is recognised by western allies as Ukrainian territory, would constitute a gross violation.

    The response from Nato could be rapid and definitive, as it would effectively justify proportionate use of force, including foreign personnel, to counter any subsequent Russian advances. This would likely result in an own goal for Putin. Any initial advantage gained would quickly be lost as friends of Ukraine justifiably enter the fray to push back an illegal Moscow-Pyongyang alliance of aggression. Escalation thereafter would also be a serious and grave concern.

    Conversely, if deployed in a combination of technical and logistical roles, or primarily to defend Russian territory, the utility of additional manpower becomes more credible. Not least, it would seem legitimate from an international legal perspective for Russia to seek assistance from alliance partners in repelling Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of southwestern Russia.

    This could deal a double blow to Kyiv. On the one hand it would likely supply sufficient personnel to rapidly finish off the already threadbare Ukrainian forces holding on to captured sovereign Russian territory. At the same time, Moscow’s own military machine would be able to focus its entire attention on the already growing advances being made along the Donbas front.

    Distraction from the end game

    North Korea’s influence on the international stage has grown since the start of the war in Ukraine as its massive stockpiles of ammunition proved significant in Russia’s attritional tactics. In that respect, the addition of foreign fighters may add a further factor in Moscow’s favour if skilfully deployed and directed.

    Ultimately, however, the limited dispatch of inexperienced Korean troops to a war zone in which they have no legal or moral basis to be sent is unlikely to prove decisive. As it stands, with or without the help of forces supplied by North Korea’s despotic leader, Kim Jong-Un, Russia’s brutal military advance looks set to grind on.

    In these regards, the arrival of North Koreans to Europe’s worst war for a generation is probably little more than another bizarre episode in this cruel conflict. The real concern is how authoritarian states such as Russia and North Korea can be transformed into something resembling civilised societies that might pursue more positive foreign policy pathways.

    Ra Mason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kim Jong-un sends North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine – here’s what this means for the war – https://theconversation.com/kim-jong-un-sends-north-korean-troops-to-fight-in-ukraine-heres-what-this-means-for-the-war-241876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chris Hoy reveals that he has terminal cancer – here’s how to spot early signs of prostate cancer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Sir Chris Hoy, an inspiration to so many of us, has just revealed he has terminal prostate cancer aged just 48 years old.

    It’s easy to assume that prostate cancer is a disease that only affects older men. But it can strike at any age, including younger and middle-aged men.

    Although the average age of diagnosis is 68, about one in ten new cases are in men under 55. In fact, doctors have noticed more cases in younger men in recent years. If you’re in your 40s or 50s, it’s worth knowing about the risks and signs of prostate cancer.

    When prostate cancer does occur in younger men, it tends to be more aggressive. If you’re diagnosed at a younger age, there’s a higher chance the cancer might be at a more advanced stage. This means it could be more dangerous than prostate cancer in older men. That’s why it’s crucial to catch it early if you can.

    There are several signs that could point to prostate cancer. People affected might notice that they’re going to the bathroom more often, especially at night. Some people can have trouble starting or stopping when they pee, or their urine flow might be weak or stop and start.

    Some men see blood in their urine or semen. Problems with erections, pain when you pee, or discomfort in your pelvic area are other possible signs.

    If you notice any of these, it’s a good idea to talk to your doctor. Remember, these symptoms can be caused by lots of other conditions too, including being part of normal ageing, but it’s always best to get them checked.

    Even if you don’t have symptoms, if you’re over 50, or over 45 with prostate cancer in your family, it’s worth having a chat with your doctor about prostate cancer screening. In this case, you might have heard of the PSA test. It’s a blood test that can help diagnose prostate problems, including cancer. But it’s not offered as a routine screening test for everyone.

    Like a lot of diagnostic tests, the PSA test isn’t perfect. It can miss some cancers, and sometimes it says there might be cancer when there isn’t. This can lead to unnecessary worry and more tests. Also, it can’t tell the difference between slow-growing cancers that might never cause problems and more aggressive ones that need treatment. That’s why doctors suggest discussing it before deciding to have the test.

    Sometimes there’s a genetic element to prostate cancers in younger people. There are genes that increase the risk of prostate cancer, and the same or similar genes increase the risk of other cancers like breast cancer.

    If there are lots of men in your family affected by prostate cancer, or male relatives with breast cancer or younger people affected, it is worth having genetic tests to understand your own risk.

    Sometimes people are even considered for a prostatectomy, which means a removal of one’s prostate, to decrease the risk of cancer occurring later on. In the future, these genetic tests will happen more and more, which is good news.

    Overdiagnosis

    One of the tricky things about prostate cancer screening is something called overdiagnosis. Many prostate cancers grow so slowly that they might never cause any problems. But once they’re found, men often want to treat them.

    This can lead to side-effects that affect quality of life, even though the cancer itself might never have been harmful. That’s why doctors are careful about how they approach screening and diagnosis.

    Some research suggests that just keeping an eye on things is better for elderly people, but this really isn’t the case for younger people.

    You might be wondering about other tests for prostate cancer. The digital rectal exam, where a doctor checks your prostate with a gloved finger, used to be a common part of screening. These days, it’s not always considered necessary, especially if other tests like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans are available.

    MRI scans where you typically go in a narrow tube are being used more and more to look for prostate cancer. They can help find suspicious areas and guide biopsies if needed.

    The first inkling Hoy had that something was wrong was when he developed shoulder pain, meaning the cancer had already spread. We do see this as oncologists, but in most cases, it’s localised to the prostate gland in the pelvis.

    If you are diagnosed with prostate cancer, there are an increasing number of treatment options available. These might include keeping a close eye on slow-growing cancers without immediate treatment, surgery to remove the prostate, radiation therapy, hormone therapy, or chemotherapy for advanced cases.

    We also have targeted drugs taken as tablets now too. The best choice depends on things like your age, how advanced the cancer is, and your overall health.

    You might have heard that more men die with prostate cancer than from it. While this is true, it doesn’t mean you should ignore any concerns you have. Early detection and treatment can be crucial, especially for more aggressive cancers.

    If you’re worried about any symptoms or about your risk of prostate cancer, don’t hesitate to talk to your doctor. Being proactive about your health is important. Remember, many men diagnosed with prostate cancer go on to live long, full lives, especially when it’s caught early.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chris Hoy reveals that he has terminal cancer – here’s how to spot early signs of prostate cancer – https://theconversation.com/chris-hoy-reveals-that-he-has-terminal-cancer-heres-how-to-spot-early-signs-of-prostate-cancer-241851

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Standing desks are bad for your health – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack McNamara, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Exercise Physiology, University of East London

    The global market for standing desks is booming, projected to reach US$12.6 billion by 2032 (£9.7 billion). These desks have been hailed as a simple fix for the health risks associated with sitting all day. However, recent research suggests that standing might not be the health booster many hoped for.

    A new study from Australia involving over 83,000 participants found that prolonged standing may not improve heart health and could even increase the risk of certain circulatory problems.

    Researchers discovered that standing for extended periods did not reduce the risk of heart disease and stroke. In fact, spending too much time either sitting or standing was linked to a higher risk of problems such as varicose veins and feeling dizzy or lightheaded when you stand up.

    The phrase “sitting is the new smoking” has become popular in the past decade, highlighting the dangers of a sedentary lifestyle. Prolonged sitting has been associated with obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. In response, standing desks emerged as a trendy solution, offering a way to reduce sitting time without drastically changing daily routines.

    But was there solid evidence to support the benefits of standing desks?

    Much of the enthusiasm was based on limited studies that didn’t comprehensively assess long-term health consequences. This gap in knowledge prompted researchers to investigate further.

    In the new study, participants wore devices to track their sitting, standing and physical activity over several years. This objective measurement provided accurate data, reducing the inaccuracies often found in self-reported information. The researchers found that sitting for more than ten hours a day was associated with a higher risk of heart disease and stroke.

    However, simply standing more didn’t mitigate this risk. In fact, standing for extended periods was linked to an increased risk of circulatory problems.

    Prolonged standing can cause blood to pool in the legs, leading to conditions such as varicose veins.

    The study’s large sample size and use of objective data strengthen the reliability of these findings. However, as an observational study, it cannot definitively establish cause and effect. Also, the average age of participants was around 61 years, which may limit how these results apply to younger people.

    Standing for long periods can increase the risk of varicose veins.
    sutulastock/Shutterstock

    Movement is key

    These findings suggest that simply swapping sitting for standing isn’t a perfect solution. Our bodies respond better to regular movement rather than static positions, whether that’s sitting or standing.

    Incorporating short walks, stretching or light exercises throughout the day can interrupt long periods of inactivity and offer significant health benefits.

    Workplace interventions promoting movement have shown promise. Researchers found that office workers who reduced their sitting time by adding periods of standing and light activity saw improvements in blood sugar levels and other health markers.

    Another study indicated that alternating between sitting and standing, combined with brief walks, was more effective for health than standing alone.

    Sit-stand desks, designed to facilitate easy position changes, offer a promising solution. They promote frequent posture changes and can alleviate discomfort associated with prolonged static positions. Some models even feature reminders to encourage regular movement, integrating activity into the workday.

    Getting more physical activity into our lives doesn’t have to be complex. Simple actions such as taking the stairs, walking to a colleague instead of emailing, or standing during phone calls can all contribute. Setting a timer to remind you to move every 30 minutes can help break up long periods of sitting or standing, empowering you to take control of your health.

    Movement is key. Standing all day isn’t necessarily better than sitting – both have drawbacks when overdone. By focusing on regular physical activity and varying our positions, we can better address the health challenges posed by sedentary lifestyles. Small changes, such as taking short active breaks or incorporating stretching exercises, can make a significant difference.

    Ultimately, while standing desks offer an alternative to prolonged sitting, they shouldn’t be seen as a complete solution. Embracing a more active lifestyle, both in and out of the office, is likely to yield the greatest health benefits. It’s not just about standing or sitting; it’s about moving more and sitting less.

    Jack McNamara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Standing desks are bad for your health – new study – https://theconversation.com/standing-desks-are-bad-for-your-health-new-study-241687

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: YouTube is limiting recommendations of weight and fitness videos to teenagers – but more wide-ranging change is needed

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Danielle Paddock, Research Associate in the Centre for Behavioural Science and Applied Psychology (CeBSAP), Sheffield Hallam University

    YouTube is restricting teenagers’ exposure to fitness and weight-related videos to protect their wellbeing. This means that the platform’s algorithm will no longer make repeated recommendations of content that focuses on achieving specific fitness levels or body weights, or extols particular physical features.

    This could include gym routines that involve pursuing a certain look, and videos that idealise beauty features – such as “how to get a chiselled jawline”. At the same time, Youtube is placing restrictions on recommending content “displaying social aggression and intimidation” for under-18s.

    But these changes do not stop teens searching for and viewing such content in the first place – and may not be enough to make a meaningful change.

    Social media platforms are a fundamental part of youth culture. They hold the power to shape perceptions about appearance, health, fitness and lifestyle. Their vast repository of appearance-related videos can place great pressure on young people, bombarding them with all kinds of content that promotes unrealistic and often unachievable body standards.

    The role of the algorithm

    Research has found that exposure to appearance-related content on social media is linked to increased body dissatisfaction and increased engagement in more restrictive eating behaviour.

    Such content can be difficult to escape when algorithms are built to keep pushing it on users, even if young people are actively seeking more positive, less damaging content. It can create a situation where teenagers’ curiosity can quickly spiral into a dangerous obsession – with concerning consequences.

    For a teenager who watches their favourite influencer’s “day at the gym” video, for instance, the algorithm will then deliver more and more fitness and weight-related content. From watching this one video, the algorithmic “rabbit hole” opens up. For young impressionable teenagers, this has the power to exacerbate harmful behaviour and consequences.

    YouTube’s curb on recommending this content goes some way to mitigating the power of the algorithm. But even with restrictions in place, there is still a huge range of fitness, beauty and weight-related content available on the platform that may perpetuate harmful body standards. The YouTube restrictions also won’t stop teenagers from being bombarded with this same content on other apps.

    Body image and social media

    Body dissatisfaction among teens is linked to depression, anxiety and eating disorders. Teenagers are at a critical developmental period where they are highly susceptible to social influences, so the content that they are exposed to on social media can heavily affect how they view themselves.

    The rise of social media fitness and beauty influencers and all the videos about strict exercise routines, “what I eat in a day” videos and beauty routines has gone hand in hand. Teenagers feel pressure to conform to the body ideals portrayed in this content, but these “ideals” are often practically unattainable for most to achieve.

    Fitness content proliferates on social media.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    In reality, influencers often use a range of filters in their pictures and videos. These digitally altered images create a distorted view of appearance, contributing to increased body dissatisfaction for teenagers.

    More needs to be done to address the larger societal issues that fuel body image concerns among teenagers. This starts with education.

    If we give teenagers the knowledge and understanding about the way algorithms can affect what they see, and the risks associated with this, then they can feel a sense of empowerment and autonomy around their own safe social media use. Media literacy programmes have been found to improve body image among teenagers, equipping them with skills to critically engage with online content.

    YouTube, along with other platforms, could take a more active role in promoting body diversity. This could include elevating videos that challenge traditional beauty standards. The combination of powerful algorithms, societal pressures and the pervasive nature of social media means that a more holistic approach is necessary.

    If we are to protect teenagers from poor body image and build greater online resilience, then it will require not only stricter algorithmic regulations. Media literacy, education and a cultural shift toward a body positive movement is needed.

    Danielle Paddock is affiliated with the British Psychological Society.

    – ref. YouTube is limiting recommendations of weight and fitness videos to teenagers – but more wide-ranging change is needed – https://theconversation.com/youtube-is-limiting-recommendations-of-weight-and-fitness-videos-to-teenagers-but-more-wide-ranging-change-is-needed-238954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the #MeToo movement has shaped how women write crime fiction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alison Taft, Course Director of Creative Writing, Leeds Beckett University

    It’s seven years since #MeToo became a viral phenomenon. The social media campaign against sexual harassment and assault encouraged survivors to share their stories. But has anything changed in the way crime fiction is written as a result?

    There are now novels that specifically reference the #MeToo movement, such as Complicit by Winnie M Li, The List by Yomi Adegoke and This Is Pleasure by Mary Gaitskill. Between them, they deal with the consequences of sex crimes for a set of main characters that include: a female film producer wondering if she could have done more to prevent the actions of the male predator (Complicit), a falsely accused man (The List) and the female friend of a man seemingly unaware his behaviour could be experienced as offensive (This is Pleasure).

    These novels, all written by women, invite readers to consider differing perspectives in the aftermath of what appeared as a tsunami of offences. But by shifting the focus away from the perpetrators of the crimes they do little to challenge what some women activists identify as a rape culture.

    In 2018, in response to the #MeToo movement, screenwriter Bridget Lawless launched the Staunch Prize. It was to be “awarded to the author of a novel in the thriller genre in which no woman is beaten, stalked, sexually exploited, raped or murdered”. She argued that the majority of crime thrillers focus on the least common forms of violence against women (the stalker, the serial killer, the unknown assailant) giving readers a false idea of what a rapist looks like and so making it more difficult to convict real offenders. “Well over 90% of rapes and murders of women are by men known to them,” she explained, “often a former or current partner”.

    However, the Staunch Prize met with criticism. Novelist Sophie Hannah argued that rather than pretend these crimes don’t exist, writers should challenge the prejudices that exist within the way they are written about. Val McDermid meanwhile (widely credited as one of few female crime writers who attracts male readers) said she’d stop writing stories about violence against women when men stop committing the crimes.

    It is important to tell these stories, and to do so in ways that challenge the fetishisation of sex crimes. However, creating realistic yet empowering stories can be something of a challenge.

    #MeToo and crime tropes

    When Sarah Bailey published her novel Into The Night (2019), which features a female character who experiences sexual harassment, she claims her US editors argued “that because of #MeToo and #TimesUp, readers would desire a more empowering narrative, a ‘happy ending’ so to speak, where justice was served and the bad guy got his comeuppance”. Bailey wasn’t convinced. She argued that manufacturing happy endings for fictional women might not offer much support to real women on the receiving end of these crimes.

    Gail Simone, creator of the website Women in Refrigerators, has been working to highlight some of the more damaging tropes found within crime fiction. She brought attention to the concept of “fridging” – a plot device where violence against women is used to motivate the (usually male) protagonist into action. In these stories, women appear with no other purpose than to be a victim.

    These tropes, Simone argues, “both reflect and perpetuate the idea that women don’t have any agency over their own lives in the real world”.

    The Change by Kirsten Miller (2022) challenges this lack of agency. The novel features three peri-menopausal characters intent on exposing a Jeffrey Epstein-inspired network of abusers.

    The feminist thriller is unflinching in laying the blame squarely where it belongs. It does also, perhaps to avoid the accusation of bias, include a female antagonist who may, or may not, be based upon Ghislaine Maxwell (currently serving a 20-year prison sentence after being found guilty of child sex trafficking and other offences connected to Epstein). The Change serves as a call to action to women, particularly older women, to play their part in bringing perpetrators to justice.

    The ongoing mass rape trial of Dominique Pelicot in France has perhaps provided the world with a shock dose of reality. Pelicot admitted repeatedly drugging his wife, Gisèle and inviting strangers to rape her. The court has heard statements, such as “there is rape, and then there’s rape” (a lawyer for six of the accused); “she did not deserve this” (Pelicot); and “women do not belong to men, I hope that future generations will learn that” (one of the accused).

    It’s clear that writers are working to explore the issues the #MeToo movement raised. But statements like this show that, despite these efforts, the social narrative around sex-crime remains depressingly unchanged.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Alison Taft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the #MeToo movement has shaped how women write crime fiction – https://theconversation.com/how-the-metoo-movement-has-shaped-how-women-write-crime-fiction-239905

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election 2024: getting out the youth vote will be crucial in a knife-edge contest

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Sloam, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway University of London

    The US presidential election is on a knife edge. The polls are predicting 50/50 races in several states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

    The results in these states are likely to be crucial in deciding whether it is the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, or her Republican rival, Donald Trump, who will be sitting in the White House come January 2025. The youth vote will play a key role in determining victory in such a tight race.

    Younger voters in the US have leaned heavily towards the Democratic party in recent presidential elections. But this is a relatively new phenomenon. In 2000, young Americans aged 18 to 30 voted for George Bush and Al Gore at an almost identical rate to the general population, favouring Democrat Gore by 48% to 47%.

    The swell in youth support for the Democrats only began with Barack Obama in 2008, when he defeated John McCain by two to one in this demographic (66% to 32%). This was followed by a slightly smaller – albeit still substantial – margin of victory for Obama over Mitt Romney (60% to 37%) in 2012. The current US president, Joe Biden, enjoyed a similar advantage over Trump among young voters in 2020 (61% to 36%).

    Youth support for the Democrats has proved to be particularly strong among young women, and Latino and black voters who are opposed to the illiberalism of Trump’s Republican party. Polls suggest that Biden secured an estimated 67%, 69% and 89% of the vote respectively from these groups four years ago.

    Young women also drove a surge in youth participation in the 2022 midterms in reaction to a Supreme Court ruling that now allows states to deny women the right to abortion. This contributed to results that were much better than expected for the Democrats in Congress.

    Younger voters in the US have leaned heavily towards Democratic party candidates in recent presidential elections.
    James Sloam, CC BY-NC-ND

    Youth turnout in the US is low by international standards. But in the 2020 presidential election – a highly polarised race between Biden and Trump – a record half of young Americans turned out to vote. This compared to around two-thirds of the registered electorate, which was itself the highest rate of turnout for over a century.

    On the surface, Harris’s presidential bid might have been expected to boost youth support and participation further. She is a woman of mixed heritage with socially progressive views, who is generally seen as likeable and is the antithesis of Trump.

    And younger voters do, indeed, prefer Harris to Trump, but by an unconvincing margin, compared with support for previous Democratic candidates. In a recent opinion poll conducted by YouGov and the Economist, 55% of young people stated that they would vote for Harris compared to 39% for Trump.

    This speaks of a broader disillusionment with electoral politics among young Americans. There is some disaffection over the Biden administration’s lack of action over issues such as climate change, gun control and the war in Gaza.

    But, most importantly in this election, there is a sense that neither party has attended to the economic hardships that have left young Americans feeling that they are unlikely to be better off than their parents’ generation.

    After being buffeted by high inflation, today’s young people (gen Z) are spending over 30% more on housing, almost 50% more on health insurance, and twice as much on car insurance than millennials.

    The 2016 presidential race showed that young people in the US are much more supportive of Bernie Sanders’ more radical version of the Democratic party than has been offered by Clinton, Biden and Harris – the more centrists candidates who have made it through to become the Democratic candidate in the past three elections. In the 2016 primaries, more young Americans voted for Sanders than for Clinton and Trump put together.

    Increasing youth turnout

    The lack of enthusiasm for establishment Democratic party candidates means that efforts to bring out the youth vote are of central importance. This is particularly true in the key states Harris needs to win to become president.

    In the 2020 election, voter registration drives among young people played a key role in Democratic wins in incredibly tight state races. In Georgia, for example, it is widely accepted that the large increase in youth turnout flipped the state for Biden in a race that came down to just 12,000 votes.

    Last month, I spent time in Philadelphia, a city at the heart of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the most important swing state in the US, with 19 of the country’s 538 electoral college votes. When I was there, I spoke to young people and a leader of PA Youth Vote, a bipartisan initiative set up to improve youth voter registration and turnout in the state.

    PA Youth Vote had a clear understanding that, to increase youth turnout, they need to focus on making young people aware of how politics and voting matters for their everyday lives, and how they can have an impact on the issues they care about in their local areas by engaging with local officials and the democratic process.

    The aim of the initiative is to meet “the youth where they are, going to their schools, their neighbourhoods and their spaces” to give young people a positive reason to go out and vote.

    The Harris campaign – and US politics in general – can learn a lot from these grassroots movements. Their efforts to make politics matter for young Americans have the potential to increase youth participation.

    The success of these bipartisan efforts to bring out the youth vote will undoubtedly be critical to the presidential race, given the preference of young people for Harris over Trump. But it is critical for American democracy that politicians engage with young people on the issues they care about, such as education, crime, policing and poverty, all the time – and not just when asking for votes.

    On returning to the airport on the way back from Pennsylvania, I was speaking to the young African-American man who was driving my taxi. He believed that Trump was a racist, but also that neither party would do anything for him and his community. In his view, there was no point in voting, even in a key marginal state.

    This highlights the lack of proper discussion in the presidential race about how persistent economic inequalities are undermining American democracy in a very material sense for individual young people.

    James Sloam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election 2024: getting out the youth vote will be crucial in a knife-edge contest – https://theconversation.com/us-election-2024-getting-out-the-youth-vote-will-be-crucial-in-a-knife-edge-contest-240500

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Breast cancer: why it’s difficult to treat and what new approaches are on the horizon

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Anna-Mart Engelbrecht, Professor in physiological sciences, Stellenbosch University

    Breast cancer is the number one cancer among women: more than 2 million cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2022. It is also particularly challenging to treat. Physiologist Anna-Mart Engelbrecht, who heads the Cancer Research Group at Stellenbosch University, explains why this is so and how precision medicine could help.

    How do tumours work?

    Normally, cell growth, cell division and cell death are tightly regulated processes. But mutations in a cell’s DNA can disrupt this regulation, leading to abnormal cell proliferation, forming tumours.

    Tumours can be benign (non-cancerous) or malignant (cancerous). Malignant tumours are dangerous because they invade surrounding tissues and can metastasize (spread) to other body parts, such as bones, liver or lungs.

    Cancer cells can evade the immune system, create their own blood supply (angiogenesis), and adapt to survive under different conditions, such as low oxygen or treatment pressure.

    Only 5%-10% of all cancers arise from germline (inherited) mutations, which are present in all cells of the body from birth, predisposing the individual to developing cancer.

    Most cancers are preventable through a healthy lifestyle and regular exercise.

    What are the different types of tumours?

    For breast cancer, the tumours can be classified into types:

    Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS): Non-invasive cancer (meaning it has not invaded the underlying tissue beneath the epithelial cells, and abnormal cells are confined only to the milk ducts.

    Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC): The most common type, where cancer cells break through the duct walls (the cells lining the ducts become cancerous) and invade surrounding breast tissue.

    Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC): Begins in the milk-producing lobules and invades nearby tissue. (The lobules are the part of the breast which produce milk. They are anatomically different from the ducts, which transport the milk to the nipples.)

    Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC): The breast tissue lacks estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, and HER2 protein receptors that control how cells grow and divide. Triple-negative breast cancer is often more aggressive and more challenging to treat.

    HER2-positive breast cancer: Overexpression of the HER2 protein, which promotes cancer cell growth.

    Hormone receptor-positive breast cancer: Cancer that grows in response to hormones like estrogen or progesterone.

    What makes breast cancer so difficult to treat?

    Breast cancer is particularly challenging to treat because there are so many subtypes with unique genetic and molecular characteristics.

    These variations mean that a treatment effective for one subtype might not work for another. The approach has to be tailored for each patient’s breast cancer.

    Another challenge is the tumour microenvironment. Cancer cells “hijack” the normal cells in this microenvironment to sustain cell growth.

    The tumour microenvironment shapes tumour behaviour. Certain cells in this environment can shield cancer cells from therapies, making treatment less effective.

    Drug resistance further complicates treatment. Over time, breast cancer cells can adapt and develop resistance to chemotherapy, hormonal treatments and targeted therapies.

    This adaptation can involve genetic mutations or the use of alternative signalling pathways that allow the cancer cells to continue growing despite treatment efforts.

    Metastasis, or the spread of cancer to other organs, is another major hurdle. Metastatic cells often behave differently from those in the primary tumour. This is true for all cancers.

    Lastly, breast cancer cells sometimes escape detection by the immune system. Usually, the immune system would recognise and attack abnormal cells. But some breast cancer cells can disguise themselves or suppress the immune response.

    This makes immunotherapy less effective. Unlike traditional therapies such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy enhances the immune system’s natural ability to fight cancer.

    Immunotherapy has shown success in treating cancers like melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, kidney cancer and certain lymphomas, particularly those with a high number of genetic mutations that make them more visible to the immune system.

    But immunotherapy is not universally effective. Response rates can vary greatly between patients, and side effects can be severe.

    Breast cancer tends to have fewer genetic changes for the immune system to recognise as foreign.

    How would precision medicine make a difference?

    Precision medicine takes into account the genes, environment, and lifestyle of each person and tailors treatments to a tumour’s genetic and molecular characteristics.

    It enables targeted therapies that improve efficacy and reduce unnecessary side effects.

    Ongoing monitoring through techniques like liquid biopsies (for example a blood test) allows treatment strategies to be adapted as the tumour evolves, and identifying genetic predispositions aids in early detection and prevention.

    Precision medicine has transformed cancer care, particularly in cancers like breast, lung, and melanoma, where targeted therapies guided by genetic profiling are now routine for patients who can afford it.

    Research and clinical trials continue to expand the reach of precision medicine, promising more effective, individualised treatments for a broader range of patients in the future.

    Anna-Mart Engelbrecht receives funding from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), National Research Foundation (NRF) and CANSA. SAMRC and NRF currently, CANSA previously. I am director and shareholder of two Stellenbosch University start-up companies, BIOCODE and PHYENTI.

    – ref. Breast cancer: why it’s difficult to treat and what new approaches are on the horizon – https://theconversation.com/breast-cancer-why-its-difficult-to-treat-and-what-new-approaches-are-on-the-horizon-241690

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: War and the supernatural: former Congolese soldiers recall the ritual practices used to prepare for battle

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Dostin Lakika, Research Associate, University of the Witwatersrand

    War takes a toll on soldiers’ bodies and minds. To prepare for battle, soldiers are taken through various forms of training. Part of this training aims to strip candidates of their civilian values and inculcate military culture.

    While armies have access to an array of contemporary strategies and weaponry during training, one element isn’t often discussed: the rituals incorporated in training and those performed before engaging in warfare.

    Rituals include the magico-religious practices performed for various purposes, such as seeking blessing, power or protection or even imbibing military customs. Rituals or ceremonies are believed to bestow specific abilities upon individuals and shape their behaviours.

    War rituals aren’t exclusive to Africa. Many armed forces all over the world perform them. A study of rituals in the American military, for instance, found that these ceremonies help soldiers cope with trauma, loss and moral challenges during conflict.

    As a scholar focused on the memories of war and violence experienced by former soldiers, I set out to study the role rituals play in shaping soldiers’ identities, preparation for war and coping with war’s realities in battle and after.

    My findings suggest that rituals can function as a source of strength for soldiers. They instil a sense of confidence and security, as initiates feel encompassed by supernatural power. Additionally, these rituals enhance team unity, and reinforce discipline and loyalty to commanding officers.

    My study highlights the integration of rituals into military tactics, and their influence on soldiers’ lives amid stress and uncertainty on the battlefield. I argue that while the effectiveness of an army relies on the quality of its training and equipment, rituals can significantly influence the mindset of combatants.

    The study

    I interviewed 21 former Congolese soldiers from the Zairean Armed Forces (now known as the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo, following the country’s renaming in May 1997) to gather data on their military experiences. These respondents served as the primary sources of information regarding the use of rituals.

    A retrospective study like this raises concerns about potential memory lapses. Former soldiers reflecting on their army experiences may struggle to recall certain aspects due to the passage of time. However, research suggests that significant events are remembered more persistently, implying that military rituals can be recalled accurately.

    I chose soldiers from the Zairean Armed Forces for two reasons. First, many soldiers left the national army and fled the country to South Africa after Laurent-Desiré Kabila overthrew Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997. Secondly, despite being plagued by corruption and mismanagement, Mobutu’s army was widely regarded as disciplined and powerful.

    Consequently, participants were more willing to discuss their military experiences as former members of the national defence forces. The respondents are now living in various Johannesburg suburbs.

    The findings

    I analysed the data I collected to identify patterns and extract common themes. I found that rituals involved the perceived creation of material shields or the acquisition of supernatural powers. They were aimed at offering a sense of protection of the body. Rituals also provided a mystical dimension, notably through the ceremonial treatment of uniforms.

    The overarching aim of rituals was to disconnect soldiers from civilian life and cultivate a specific form of masculinity aligned with military objectives. This helped foster camaraderie, establish strong connections among troops and contributed to the maintenance of discipline.

    Respondents in my study said initiation rituals focused on training and indoctrination to build a military identity centred on sacrifice and endurance for the nation. Before recruits donned military uniforms, for instance, they underwent rituals to consecrate their bodies to the army. One respondent, Makemba, explained:

    A soldier is not afraid of death; a true soldier can’t be afraid of death, I tell you. Because you live with death, you eat with death, and you clothe death … military uniforms are taken to cemetery where they spend two or three days before you wear them to tell you that you are death’s friend; you are brother of those who are dead, and you and those who are dead are the same.

    This graveyard ritual symbolised the soldiers’ connection with the deceased and transformed their individual identities into a collective body.

    To reinforce discipline, respondents said, they were required to utter specific words before entering someone’s field as a form of confession and permission. This, they said, would shield soldiers from negative impulses, such as using belongings without consent. The DRC army has a notorious reputation for exploiting civilians to supplement meagre salaries. Observing discipline was, therefore, considered essential for personal protection and the success of military operations.

    Additionally, before being deployed for war, respondents said soldiers participated in various religious practices, and received blessings along with religious items. These magico-religious rituals served to provide a sense of protection from enemy attacks. These religious ceremonies, respondents said, provided a measure of solace and self-confidence before combat. As Lokole explained it:

    You know, before joining the army I was an athlete and already knew something about power and protection because I had to protect myself against my opponents. But I joined the army, I was given leopard’s bones and water in which the bones were kept. When I had to go to the battlefield, I washed my face, hands, and feet with that sacred water. The bones were strung together on a thread, which I was instructed to fasten around my waist. This was the source of power and protection for me, and I can tell you, I survived many deadly dangers because I had these powers.

    Respondents believed that these rituals proved effective while on the frontlines. In his account, Amani said:

    Many of our colleagues found themselves face to face with the enemy who fired them at point-blank range but the bullets only passed through the clothes they were wearing without touching them. They returned with military uniform pierced by bullets, but they themselves were unharmed. Rituals were very protective. We witnessed many cases like this.

    The effectiveness of these rituals, respondents believed, was contingent on strict adherence to them. Failure to do so, they said, could lead to fatalities. Soldiers also combined traditional beliefs with Christian faith to cope with battlefield challenges despite debates over the compatibility of these belief systems.

    Why it matters

    The data collected from former Congolese soldiers indicates that they believed their protection in battle was dependent on the quality of the weapons, as well as magico-religious resources. This indicates that rituals can play a key psychological role in preparing soldiers for war, fostering strength, cohesion and discipline. Their importance in the armed forces shouldn’t be underestimated.

    Dostin Lakika does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. War and the supernatural: former Congolese soldiers recall the ritual practices used to prepare for battle – https://theconversation.com/war-and-the-supernatural-former-congolese-soldiers-recall-the-ritual-practices-used-to-prepare-for-battle-239967

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Civilian support for military coups isn’t a bug – it’s a feature

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Salah Ben Hammou, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Rice University

    Members of the Malian junta wave as civilians gather to celebrate the overthrow of the president on Aug. 21, 2020. AP Photo/File

    In September 2024, authorities in Benin detained the country’s former sports minister and a prominent businessman for allegedly plotting a coup against the West African nation’s president, Patrice Talon. Had a putsch materialized, Benin would have joined a growing list of African countries to have experienced a military coup over the past four years.

    Dubbed an “epidemic of coup d’états” by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the resurgence of military takeovers has left many observers perplexed. For one, the frequency of coups worldwide had reached historic lows prior to 2020.

    But perhaps even more puzzling is that several of the recent military coups – such as those in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea – have been accompanied by significant civilian support. Indeed, while various commentaries or news reports have treated civilian support as an exceptional feature of this recent coup wave, these perspectives rely on a common misunderstanding.

    As I’ve observed over the course of my research on the politics of military coups, civilian support is actually a common, if not critical, part of coup politics, and far from unique to this recent resurgence of military takeovers.

    How common are civilian-supported coups?

    In the popular imagination of a military coup, power-hungry soldiers command tanks down a capital’s streets to seize authority from the political leadership. In this vision, civilians are often passive actors or otherwise assumed to be the opponents of coups. Yet such a setting is belied by numerous examples, both recent and throughout history.

    In West Africa’s Niger, for example, the M62 movement – a coalition of civil society organizations – gathered its members on the streets to support the coup in July 2023, outnumbering prior protests calling for the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum. In neighboring Mali, the M5-RFP protest movement served a similar role in the aftermath of the country’s 2020 coup – although fissures in its relationship with the junta have since surfaced.

    Even Benin’s thwarted plot had a civilian dimension. Its alleged masterminds, the sports minister and prominent businessman who were said to have funded the planned coup, were not soldiers but part of the governing bureaucracy or elite civil society.

    To see how common such cases are, I collected data on civilian support and involvement in all successful military coups since 1950. Defining coups as “successful” if the soldiers manage to stay in power for at least seven days, that gave me 242 cases over a period of nearly 75 years to analyze, spanning different regions like Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.

    Out of the 242 episodes, 189 coups – or nearly 80% – saw some type of civilian support, either in the takeover’s instigation or in the later consolidation of power.

    Coups without any sign of civilian support were generally those that saw a military leader ousted by other members of the ruling junta – contexts where soldiers already dominated the political landscape.

    Breaking down the numbers over time, civilian-supported coups represented the lion’s share in each decade, even as the overall frequency of coups ebbed by the 1990s with the end of the Cold War.

    But in the past two decades, virtually every successful coup has been associated with some level of support outside the military. So while civilian support might not be unique to recent cases, there is evidence that it has become a more common fixture of military coups – at least among the successful ones.

    Of course, these stats do not include failed coups or thwarted conspiracies. But the failed attempts to instigate a coup in Benin – or, for that matter, in Brazil in January 2023 – suggest that these numbers might underestimate the frequency of civilian support for, and involvement in, coups.

    How civilians support coups

    In general, civilian support for coups can manifest in different ways. But in a recent study, I identified two broad patterns: instigation and consolidation.

    Instigation, by default, occurs in the pre-coup stage and involves civilians taking action to spark a coup attempt.

    Protests and insurrections in pursuit of a military coup are common methods of instigation. For example, early in 2023, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro seized the National Congress after weeks of publicly calling on the military to stop President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s inauguration. While their efforts ultimately failed to produce a coup, they are illustrative of the civilian dynamic.

    In late 2021, disgruntled members of Sudan’s transitional government organized protests in Khartoum, the capital, calling for the military’s intervention. The military answered days later by removing Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok from power.

    Instigation can also involve more targeted actions. For instance, the alleged Benin coup plot involved targeting specific members of the security services with bribes in exchange for their participation. In Brazil, recent court documents implicated Bolsonaro himself in coordinating a coup plot and attempting to ensure the participation of top military leaders.

    In other cases, political parties developed secret cells in the armed forces to later give the go-ahead for a coup – like in Bolivia in 1952, Iraq in 1963, Afghanistan in 1978 and Sudan in 1989.

    Consolidation, on the other hand, involves actions taken during and in the immediate aftermath of a coup.

    This could include actions like taking up arms alongside soldiers during a military takeover, organizing pro-coup protests or assuming important governing tasks alongside a new junta. Here, civilians seek to ensure a coup succeeds and its objectives take root – even against domestic and international opposition.

    Among the recent West African cases, civilians have especially worked to consolidate coups against international opposition. For example, after the Economic Community of West African States threatened military intervention to reverse Niger’s coup in 2023, M62 and other civilian-led protest groups rallied to support the coupists. Thousands also enlisted in the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger, a pro-junta civilian militia created to combat international intervention against the coupists.

    Why civilian coup support matters

    Soldiers are unlikely to even attempt a coup without confidence that at least some civilians will back their efforts.

    Portraying civilian support for military takeovers as exceptional thus misses a critical component of coup politics. And this misconception benefits coupists, who can use civilian allies to present their actions as legitimate or even revolutionary, which is what happened in Egypt in 2013.

    Coupists can also retain political influence after stepping aside by ensuring that their civilian supporters secure power.

    Military coups also do not occur in a vacuum. A proper focus on the civilian element of coup politics allows researchers and international observers to better contextualize military takeovers in broader social struggles for the state.

    This could lead to greater engagement with the issue of what kinds of civilian segments are instigating and consolidating coups. Are they close to the targeted leader such as in Benin’s alleged plot? Or are they members of the political opposition, like in Niger and Mali?

    These nuances should be front and center to researchers, policymakers and diplomats as they seek to understand – and mitigate – sudden and often destabilizing takeovers of a state.

    Salah Ben Hammou has received funding from the United States Institute of Peace and Minerva Research Initiative. He is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Rice University’s Baker Institute of Public Policy.

    – ref. Civilian support for military coups isn’t a bug – it’s a feature – https://theconversation.com/civilian-support-for-military-coups-isnt-a-bug-its-a-feature-240877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Victorian ghost photographs amused viewers with spooky thrills

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrea Kaston Tange, Professor of English, Macalester College

    ‘The Haunted Lane,’ a stereoscope card from L.M. Melander & Bro., 1875.
     Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division.

    October has long been associated with ghosts – from ancient Celtic festivals to ward off restless spirits after harvest time to the modern standby of using an old sheet to make a last-minute Halloween costume. In the middle of the 19th century, however, popular portrayals of ghosts became a year-round staple, in part because photographers discovered that they could depict them.

    The first ghost photographs were accidents. Early cameras required 30 seconds or more to take a photo. If someone wandered briefly into the shot, the resulting picture would contain their ghostly trace superimposed over substantial furniture, buildings or people who had held still for the full exposure.

    When shrewd photographers realized that the inconvenience of long exposure time could become an asset, detailed directions for creating these illusions proliferated. Photographers could cut ghost figures from transparent material and place them onto glass negatives or inside camera bodies. Or they could make real people half-transparent through tricks of double exposure.

    As early as 1856, experts gleefully noted that one could create images of ghosts “for the purpose of amusement.” Commercial photographers began producing this spectacular phenomenon for fun and profit and – as I have found while researching early portrait photography – thereby helped feed media fascination with all things ghostly.

    Turning accident into amusement

    Photographs became collectible amusements partly thanks to the midcentury invention of the stereoscope – a device that created three-dimensional optical illusions.

    Stereoscope cards contain two pictures of the same scene, photographed from slightly different angles. A viewer selects a card, inserts it and then presses the instrument to their face. The device isolates their eyes, so each sees only one picture. As the brain, trying to avoid double vision, merges these images into one, the result is a 3D effect.

    The Perfecscope from 1895 and a collection of stereoscopic cards.
    Andrea Kaston Tange, CC BY

    In the 1850s, reading aloud was the primary form of at-home entertainment. Daily newspapers ran no images, and the technology to reproduce photographs in books or periodicals was still 40 years away. But this affordable gizmo could bring the whole world into your living room.

    My archival research has turned up newspapers full of articles and ads promoting stereoscopic “marvels.” The London Stereoscopic Co. advertised “effects almost miraculous” and marketed the device for family entertainment. By 1856, a mere two years after the company’s founding, its catalog listed over 100,000 cards, including views of dramatic landscapes, exotic tourist destinations, famous portraits and card sets that told stories.

    Among these collections of sights unseen were plenty of ghostly images. “The Ghost in the Stereoscope,” a colorized card, shows two men in open-mouthed surprise at the sudden appearance of a ghost at their supper table. The title signals the jump scare that the image maker hoped would likewise amaze the viewer when the 3D ghost loomed before their very eyes.

    ‘The Ghost in the Stereoscope,’ a hand-colored card.
    Photographer unknown, 1856. London Stereoscopic Company. Met Museum collection

    On another card, “That’s Too Thin,” a ghost points an accusatory arm at one man sitting at a gaming table. The 1876 guide “How to Write Letters” lists “too thin” among its “slang words and phrases” to be avoided for their “low associations and vulgar ideas,” which suggests that the offender is doing something unseemly for a respectable man. This visual joke relied on a pot-kettle formula: A figure so thin as to be see-through is calling out someone else as “too thin.”

    ‘That’s Too Thin’ card.
    L.M. Melander & Bro., 1874. Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

    Popular ghosts

    Nothing was meant to imply that these were pictures of actual spirits. Some – like “The Haunted Lane,” in which two men who cower in supposed terror from a ghost are obviously photographed in a studio with “lane” props – were so melodramatic as to be funny. Others were more melancholy and featured mourning husbands whose ghost-wives played the piano beside them, or orphaned children whose ghost-mothers watched over them from beyond the grave. All of them were performances.

    And all of them helped stoke a midcentury market hungry for ghostly thrills. In 1859, novelist Wilkie Collins published his spectral “The Woman in White” in installments in Charles Dickens’ weekly magazine. It sold over 100,000 copies and launched a decade-long craze for hair-raising sensation fiction.

    The “Illustrated Police News,” launched in 1864, contained supposedly true tabloid-style stories that often featured ghosts. And in 1862, John Henry Pepper, a British scientist and popular lecturer, refined a projection technique that could create apparitions onstage during live theater productions. Commonly known as Pepper’s Ghost, the dramatic illusions began appearing immediately on both sides of the Atlantic.

    Some stereoscope cards referenced multiple forms of popular entertainment to create ghost images that worked as layered visual jokes. The 1865 card “A Dream After Seeing Pepper’s Ghost” is a great example of how the Victorian penchant for allusions and wordplay found its way into this visual pastime.

    The sleeping young woman’s “dream” is a photographic ghost: The looming, gauzy figure filling the dark space of the window beside her bed would have appeared to float in 3D stereoscope. “Seeing Pepper’s Ghost” obviously refers to a play she has attended: Her fine clothes tossed haphazardly on the furniture indicate a late evening out.

    But the ghost has the head of a cow and wears a necklace on which is lettered “MUSTARD.” A Victorian viewer accustomed to wordplay riddles would realize that this ghost-of-pepper also implies that the sleeper ate too much of an overly seasoned roast beef dinner, for indigestion was commonly understood to cause bad dreams.

    Together, these details may allude to Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol.” A theater company in 1865 would undoubtedly use the sensational new Pepper’s technique to place the ghost of Jacob Marley onstage to torment his former business partner, the miser Scrooge. And Scrooge quite famously dismisses Marley’s ghost initially as “an undigested bit of beef, a blot of mustard” – that is, as merely a bad dream brought on by overeating. A clever viewer would delight in puzzling through these playful layers of stereoscopic magic.

    There were, of course, also Victorian photographers who purported to capture actual ghosts. They sometimes worked with mediums at séances, and their claims to record the spirit world engendered huge controversy.

    But in the Halloween season, it’s fun to contemplate the lighter side of this history, when an appetite for haunting tales inspired photographic ghost effects that seem delightfully ahead of their time.

    Andrea Kaston Tange does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Victorian ghost photographs amused viewers with spooky thrills – https://theconversation.com/victorian-ghost-photographs-amused-viewers-with-spooky-thrills-240776

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Florida and North Carolina are making it easier for people to vote after the hurricanes – but some risks remain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael T. Morley, Assistant Professor of Law, Florida State University

    People walk into an early voting site in Hendersonville, N.C., on Oct. 17, 2024. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

    Polls opened in North Carolina on Oct. 17, 2024, as about 14,000 people in Asheville and surrounding areas remain without power in their homes following Hurricane Helene. In Florida, which started early voting in some counties on Oct. 21, about 400,000 residents are still without power after Hurricane Milton.

    Some experts have said that the hurricanes could cause voter numbers to drop – and impacts of Helene have already prompted a few early polling stations in western North Carolina to close. But more North Carolina residents turned out to vote on the first day of early voting than they did in 2020.

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Michael T. Morley, who studies natural disasters and election law, to understand how these recent storms could complicate voting in the presidential election.

    A home in Manasota Key, Fla., that was damaged by Hurricane Milton is seen on Oct. 13, 2024.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    What are the major issues that hurricanes can create ahead of an election?

    A hurricane or natural disaster makes an election tremendously more challenging for both election officials and voters on various practical levels.

    Election administrators might have been injured, or their homes could be flooded or destroyed. State officials need to ensure, especially in areas that have been hardest hit, that enough local administrators remain in place to continue distributing absentee ballots and to staff early voting locations.

    Still, I have not seen empirical evidence that the results of any federal elections in recent decades have changed as a result of hurricanes.

    What could these major hurricanes mean for voters in North Carolina and Florida?

    Florida has one of the most comprehensive laws to deal with election emergencies of this sort because it faces them frequently.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order on Oct. 3, 2024, in response to Hurricane Helene. Among other things, Florida law says that in a state of emergency the governor can suspend state statutes or regulations governing state business when complying with them can interfere with disaster response.

    Florida, like other states, has deadlines for when election officials must designate polling locations. DeSantis waived this deadline to authorize county officials to designate new ones. DeSantis’ order also gives election officials more discretion about where new polling locations may be located. And he made it easier for state employees to step in and serve as poll workers, particularly on Election Day.

    DeSantis suspended a state requirement so a person who cannot return to their home can ask by phone to have a vote-by-mail ballot sent to wherever they are staying – not just their registered home address. Making it easier for ballots to be sent to people, wherever they are, is one of the most effective measures that Florida has implemented to help make voting easier.

    In North Carolina, meanwhile, state officials have authorized different changes that will apply to the 25 counties in the western part of the state that are under emergency orders because of the hurricane. These changes are mostly focused on voting by mail and polling place workers. They also allow county boards of elections to change Election Day voting locations and permit voters to drop off absentee ballots at any county board of election office by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

    Western North Carolina voters now also have until Nov. 4 to request a mail-in ballot, as opposed to the original deadline of Oct. 29.

    Overall, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper authorized US$5 million for the state’s board of elections in order to make it easier for western North Carolina residents to vote.

    What sort of legal issues, if any, do these changes open up?

    Disputes have already arisen about potential extension of the voter registration deadlines in states affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Courts in Florida and Georgia have already declined emergency motions to extend the voter registration deadline.

    A South Carolina state court, in contrast, held in October that the deadline had to be extended for 10 additional days.

    Similar disputes are likely to arise over such election rules as photo identification requirements at polling places and the deadlines for requesting and returning absentee ballots.

    Occasionally, challenges also arise alleging that certain measures to address an emergency have gone too far.

    During the height of the pandemic, for example, the Trump presidential campaign filed lawsuits that unsuccessfully challenged state decisions to automatically mail absentee ballots to people registered to vote.

    A U.S. post offic, damaged by flooding from Hurricane Helen, is pictured on Oct. 3, 2024, in Marshall, N.C., showing one of the complications for people who planned to vote by mail.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    What are you most concerned about heading into the election?

    My biggest concern is that, particularly if the election is close, a losing candidate might attempt to use the hurricane as a way of trying to challenge the election results or call them into question.

    Courts will almost certainly reject that. Once the election has happened, a court generally will not set aside the results or order additional voting, even if voters faced substantial burdens and people think there is more that election officials could have done. This is especially true in the context of a presidential election, since the U.S. Constitution and federal law establish several important postelection deadlines involving the Electoral College.

    Some people already have unwarranted skepticism about the electoral process. It would be bad for our democracy if the recent hurricanes are exploited as a basis for refusing to accept the election’s results.

    Michael T. Morley is Sheila M. McDevitt Professor of Law at FSU College of Law. He serves as Faculty Director of the FSU Center for Election Law established by the Florida State Legislature and Vice Chair of the Florida Advisory Committee to the U.S. Commission for Civil Rights. He is a member of the National Task Force on Election Crises and Election Officials Legal Defense Network.

    – ref. Florida and North Carolina are making it easier for people to vote after the hurricanes – but some risks remain – https://theconversation.com/florida-and-north-carolina-are-making-it-easier-for-people-to-vote-after-the-hurricanes-but-some-risks-remain-240961

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nebraska Democrats hope Omaha will be a ‘blue dot’ on the state’s red electoral map − and their lawn sign is a vibe

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christina Elizabeth Dando, Professor of Geography, University of Nebraska Omaha

    White signs emblazoned with a big blue dot are going up in yards across Omaha, Nebraska, in an unusual political statement of support for Democratic candidates.

    Nebraska splits its electoral votes, giving Omaha’s congressional district a single electoral vote out of the state’s total of five. If enough of Omaha’s metropolitan voters back Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris for president, Omaha will appear on the electoral map as a “blue dot” on a field of Republican red.

    With Harris running neck and neck with former President Donald Trump, the White House could come down to this one vote.

    Power of the dot

    Most U.S. states award all their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the state’s election, no matter the margin of victory. Only Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes.

    Nebraska awards one vote to each congressional district, plus two votes to the state’s overall winner. It began this practice in 1992 to draw more presidential campaigns to the state. Nebraska, as a whole, so predictably leans conservative that neither Republicans nor Democrats had bothered to campaign there.

    In the eight presidential elections since 1992, Omaha has turned blue only twice – in 2008 and 2020, backing Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

    Democratic voters hope to buck statewide trends again in 2024.

    The blue dot movement began in mid-August 2024 in Omaha’s Dundee neighborhood, when local residents Jason Brown and Ruth Huebner-Brown spray-painted a blue circle on a white sign and put it on their lawn as a conversation starter.

    One sign grew to 10, 100, 1,000, snowballing into a movement. Now blue dot signs can be found well beyond Omaha, even in other states. On Facebook and Reddit, people share where to find the signs and how to make your own.

    A simple blue dot on a white background has become a powerful political symbol – a reference to a map that does not have to be seen to be visualized. For Omahans in the know, the sign is a reminder of what the city’s place on the map might be come Nov. 5.

    For others, the enigmatic sign simply raises questions, creating opportunities for Omahans to discuss the importance of voting in Nebraska.

    Blue dot, black spot

    I am a professor of geography at the University of Nebraska Omaha.

    The sly way the blue dot sign refers to an election map without actually showing that map reminded me of my suffrage movement research.

    In the 1910s, women activists campaigning to get American women the vote used a map as part of their campaign. It depicted U.S. states that had passed suffrage in white and the rest in black – dark marks on the nation.

    The suffragists plastered their map across the country and sold it through the National Woman Suffrage Publishing Company. In newsletters and magazines, they shared how to make maps for rallies using easily accessible materials. The map became so familiar to the American public by 1912 that it was referred to in speeches and newspaper articles without the visual.

    At suffrage parades and pageants they formed “living suffrage maps,” with women dressed in white representing states with the vote and those in black representing states where they could not.

    As women’s suffrage momentum grew, spreading from western to eastern U.S. states, the map had ever-fewer black spots. In 1914, Nevada became the last western state to pass suffrage.

    “The suffrage map showing Nevada as the last ‘black spot’ in the West was printed in every newspaper and on every leaflet,” suffragists later wrote about their efforts. It was “put up in public places and on large banners hung in the streets.”

    With Nebraska’s blue dot signs, Omahans are fighting to keep their spot on the map, not erase it. They are an act of claiming space, making Democrats visible in a state so strongly associated with Republicans.

    On Oct. 20, 2024, in yet another echo of the women’s suffrage movement, they even created a “human blue dot” at a rally in a local park.

    A Republican red dot in Omaha.
    Christina Dando, CC BY

    Blue dot signs have inspired Republican countersigns.

    Two I’ve seen are a white sign depicting just an entirely red Nebraska, and a white sign with a large red dot with a golden wave on its top that resembles Trump’s hair.

    These red dot and red Nebraska signs are catching on, but not in the same way as blue dot signs have.

    Bye-bye, blue dot?

    Aware of Omaha’s sudden electoral importance, Republicans have begun trying to end Nebraska’s system of splitting its electoral votes.

    In April 2024, Trump and the conservative commentator Charlie Kirk called on state legislators to propose a bill changing the state to a winner-take-all system.

    Kirk described Nebraska as “being one of the most Republican states” and said the state’s electoral votes must “go towards electing the candidate the vast majority of Nebraskans prefer.”

    Many people reacted with fury, and the bill did not advance in Nebraska’s one-house state Legislature. That’s another of the state’s political quirks: Nebraska is the only state to have a state legislature without an upper and lower chamber of lawmakers.

    The system, called the unicameral, is officially partyless, meaning its 49 representatives are elected without their party on the ballot.

    The unicameral dates from 1937 when it was thought this less costly, nonpartisan system would be a more representative form of government. So is splitting the state’s electoral votes: Voters can feel more confident that their vote counts and that every vote counts.

    When South Carolina Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham visited Nebraska in September 2024, he pushed Gov. Jim Pillen, a fellow Republican, to implement a winner-take-all system for the 2024 election.

    Pillen said he would not call a special session of the unicameral unless he has the 33 votes needed to pass the change to the state’s electoral system. That appears unlikely to happen before November.

    Red + blue = purple?

    A winner-take-all approach to Electoral College votes has the effect of erasing nuance and difference on the map of America by painting states as entirely red or blue.

    No state has ever voted 100% Democrat or Republican. The country should be drawn in shades of purple.

    Nebraska has the misleading appearance of overwhelming redness because of its many Republican-leaning rural counties with low population density. Yet Nebraska’s registered voters are approximately two-thirds Republicans and one-third Democrats. Many registered Democrats live in cities such as Omaha and Lincoln.

    But they can be found throughout the state – just look for the blue dot.

    Christina Elizabeth Dando does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nebraska Democrats hope Omaha will be a ‘blue dot’ on the state’s red electoral map − and their lawn sign is a vibe – https://theconversation.com/nebraska-democrats-hope-omaha-will-be-a-blue-dot-on-the-states-red-electoral-map-and-their-lawn-sign-is-a-vibe-240528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How pollsters have adapted to changing technology and voters who don’t answer the phone

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Spencer Kimball, Associate Professor of Communications, Director of Emerson College Polling, Emerson College

    Pollsters have developed a range of methods for selecting who is asked to answer poll questions. Guido Mieth/Moment via Getty Images

    As the U.S. presidential election approaches, news reports and social media feeds are increasingly filled with data from public opinion polls. How do pollsters know which candidate is ahead in what swing state or with which key demographic group? Or what issues are most important to as many as 264 million eligible voters across a vast country?

    In other words: How do pollsters do what they do?

    At Emerson College Polling, we lead a dynamic survey operation that, like many others, has continuously evolved to keep pace with shifting trends and technologies in survey research. At the inception of survey research – about 100 years ago – data was primarily collected through mail and in-person interviews. That’s not true nowadays, of course.

    In the early days of the survey industry, being asked to participate in a poll was novel, and response rates were high. Today, we’re bombarded with survey requests via email, text, online pop-ups, and phone calls from unknown numbers. With fewer landlines, busy parents juggling work and family, and younger adults who rarely answer calls, preferring text communication, it has become much harder to engage respondents. This shift in behavior reflects the evolving challenges of reaching diverse populations in modern survey research.

    The goal is to describe a diverse community with a variety of viewpoints.
    ferrantraite/E+ via Getty Images

    Evolution of data collection

    In the broadest possible terms, polls and surveys have two elements – choosing whom to contact, and reaching them in a way that’s likely to get a response. These elements are often intertwined.

    In the 1970s, after household telephones had become widespread in the U.S., survey operators adopted a random-sampling method called random digit dialing, in which the survey’s designers would choose the area codes they wanted to reach and live operators randomly dialed seven-digit phone numbers within that area code.

    By the 1990s, pollsters began moving away from random digit dialing, which was time-consuming and expensive because the random selection often picked phone numbers that were out of service or not useful for opinion surveys, such as businesses or government offices. Instead, pollsters began adopting registration-based sampling, in which public voter registration records were used to compile the lists from which respondents were randomly selected.

    The information in these and other associated public records, such as those detailing gender, age and educational attainment, allowed a refinement of random sampling called stratified sampling. That’s where the one big list was split into subgroups based on these different characteristics, such as party affiliation, voting frequency, gender, race or ethnicity, income or educational attainment.

    Survey-takers then chose randomly from among those subgroups in proportion to the population as a whole. So if 40% of the overall population have college degrees and 60% do not, a poll of 100 people would randomly select 40 people from the list of those with a college degree and 60 from the list of those without.

    Other advances in ways to reach respondents emerged late in the 20th century, such as interactive voice response, which did not require live operators. Instead, automated systems played recordings of the questions and registered the spoken responses. In 2000, internet-based polling also began to emerge, in which participants filled out online forms.

    From probability to nonprobability sampling

    Over the past two decades, the rise of cellphones, text messaging and online platforms has dramatically changed survey research. The traditional gold standard of using only live operator telephone polls has become nearly obsolete. Now that phones display who is calling, fewer people answer calls from unknown numbers, and fewer of them are willing to talk to a stranger about their personal views.

    Even the random sampling that was once standard has given way to a nonprobability sampling approach based on increasingly specific population proportions. So if 6% of a population are Black men with a certain level of education and a certain amount of household income, then a survey will strive to have 6% of its respondents match those characteristics.

    In quota sampling, participants may not be selected randomly but rather chosen as participants because they have specific demographic attributes. This method is less statistically rigorous and more prone to bias, though it may yield a representative sample with relative efficiency. By contrast, stratified sampling randomly selects participants within defined groups, reducing sampling error and providing more precise estimates of population characteristics.

    To help polling operations find potential respondents, political and marketing consulting firms have compiled voter information, including demographic data and contact details. At Emerson College Polling, we have access to a database of 273 million U.S. adults, with 123 million mobile numbers, 116 million email addresses and nearly 59 million landline numbers.

    A newer technique pollsters are using to reach respondents is something called river sampling, an online method in which individuals encounter a survey during their regular internet browsing and social media activity, often through an ad or pop-up. They complete a short screening questionnaire and are then invited to join a survey opt-in panel whose members will be asked to take future surveys.

    Databases compile large amounts of information about many U.S. voters.
    da-kuk/E+ via Getty Images

    Emerson College Polling methodology

    Our polling operation has used a range of approaches to reach the more than 162,000 people who have completed our polls so far this year in the United States.

    Unlike traditional pollsters, Emerson College Polling does not rely on live operator data collection outside of small-scale tests of new survey methods to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of different polling approaches.

    Instead, like most modern pollsters, we use a mix of approaches, including text-to-web surveys, interactive voice response on landlines, email outreach, and opt-in panels. This combination allows us to reach a broader, more representative audience, which is essential for accurate polling in today’s fragmented social and media landscape. This diverse population includes younger individuals who communicate through various platforms distinct from those used by older generations.

    When we contact the people in our stratified samples, we take into account differences between each communication method. For example, older people tend to answer landlines, while men and middle-aged people are more responsive to mobile text-to-web surveys. To reach underrepresented groups – such as adults ages 18 to 29 and Hispanic respondents – we use online databases that they have voluntarily signed up for, knowing they may be surveyed.

    We also use information about whom we sample and how to calculate the margin of error, which measures the precision of poll results. Larger sample sizes tend to be more representative of the overall population and therefore lead to a smaller margin of error.

    For instance, a poll of 400 respondents typically has a 4.9% margin of error, while increasing the sample size to 1,000 reduces it to 3%, offering more accurate insights.

    The goal, as ever, is to present to the public an accurate reflection of what the people as a whole think about candidates and issues.

    Spencer Kimball works for Emerson College Polling.

    Camille Mumford works for Emerson College Polling.

    Matt Taglia works for Emerson College Polling

    – ref. How pollsters have adapted to changing technology and voters who don’t answer the phone – https://theconversation.com/how-pollsters-have-adapted-to-changing-technology-and-voters-who-dont-answer-the-phone-240283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Don’t panic reading ‘electoral process porn’: There are plenty of safeguards to make sure voters’ wishes are respected

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Justin Levitt, Professor of Law, Loyola Law School Los Angeles

    Electoral process porn can make people think their vote will be stolen, so what’s the point of voting? Illustration: wildpixel/ iStock / Getty Images Plus

    You’ve probably seen them: alarming columns or stories with alarming headlines about how somebody is going to exploit an obscure provision in election law to undo the 2024 presidential election and toss it to the House of Representatives. Your vote won’t count, and democracy will go to hell.

    Election law scholar Justin Levitt throws cold water on those scenarios, and in an interview with Naomi Schalit, The Conversation’s senior editor for politics and democracy, he says the voters will decide the election, “flat out.”

    What’s “electoral process porn?”

    It’s a writing genre identifying a tactic or loophole that’s supposedly going to fundamentally change the election process – what I called “The Key to the Whole Thing This Time” in a Slate piece earlier this year – usually, by taking away everyone’s voting rights and magically delivering the election to one candidate. It’s a lurid, titillating take that depends on the fact that election law and process can sometimes seem impenetrable.

    What distinguishes this type of think piece from other reporting on the election process is tone and emphasis, rather than information. Just like not every sex scene in the movies needs an NC-17 label, not every piece about how elections work is going to be electoral process porn.

    Perhaps the worst part about electoral process porn is that it leaves readers with an unjustified feeling of helplessness, even the thought that voting might be pointless, if it’s all subject to this supposed hidden gimmick. It is dystopian fiction masquerading as analysis, feeding on people’s anxieties that a basic process of self-government might be taken out of their own hands.

    A selection of headlines trumpeting the ways the 2024 presidential election could be subverted.
    Mother Jones, Politico, USA Today

    Can you give me a few examples? I want the person who reads this to understand concretely what you’re talking about.

    Sure. One example fits the mold of the artful con: the heist movie or spy thriller that depends on knowing the particular procedural lever to deliver results, the MacGuffin nobody else can anticipate, making the person who’s the center of the thriller the smartest person in the room. It’s the story about an Electoral College feature in which an obscure part of the law, say subparagraph (ii)(B) of paragraph (1)(c) about delivering a particular piece of paper, secretly holds the spell to make millions of votes disappear. It depends on a wildly implausible sequence of events and a whiff of magical legalism, with a basic misunderstanding of what legal rules are for.

    Another example is the armchair detective mystery, with the promise that if you squint just right, you can find the clues that finally solve the big crime. This type of piece often centers on alleged voter fraud, making a legitimate loss feel more palatable by suggesting it’s theft instead. The thing is, these are usually murder mysteries with no dead bodies. People motivated to play detective will often find suspicious patterns in conduct that’s entirely lawful.

    A third version is a horror story, with jump scares at scale: tales of voter suppression predicting that evildoers will steal the election by preventing millions of legitimate voters from casting ballots that count.

    But there are practices and rules that can be obstacles to voting.

    There sure are. I’m a civil rights lawyer, so it’s worth noting that some election rules do make the process harder than it needs to be. Sometimes intentionally. Rules disenfranchising people with convictions offer a particularly stark version of that very real problem. We’ve got an obligation to keep making the election process better.

    But these electoral process porn articles often portray the system as an endless nightmare of procedural hurdles. That’s not reality for most of the electorate.

    Democrats and others have criticized Trump and his followers in the GOP for destroying confidence in our elections. Yet much of this kind of what you label “porn” comes from Democrats and progressives. Doesn’t this also diminish people’s confidence in the election’s integrity?

    Yes. And it diminishes people’s confidence in the power of their vote. I think it would be somewhat less harmful if it were paired with a message of empowerment, like, “Here is what people are trying to do to take power. But it’s not going to work. And you can ensure your voice counts by registering and casting your ballot.”

    A person drops off a mail-in ballot on Oct. 15, 2024, in Doylestown, Pa.
    Hannah Beier/Getty Images

    I don’t mean to shake my finger at writers who are trying to present information in a way that draws readers in. But the tone of these columns, and the degree to which they empower or discourage, matters. These process-porn pieces are at their worst when the voters are peripheral, when the articles say, “This is being done to you, and there’s really nothing you can do about it other than get angry and give us money.”

    We’re getting pretty close to Election Day, which is the culmination of the vote. Are there legitimate problems that voters should be aware of?

    There will be some bumps, sure. Until humans figure out how not to make mistakes, there will be issues that crop up. It’s a good thing that for most Americans, voting is a period of time, rather than a single day. That gives opportunities to catch and address the problems.

    The U.S. election process is remarkably robust. Everyone saw that in 2020, the most scrutinized election in the nation’s history, during the middle of a pandemic. The system was stress-tested in ways beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, and it responded remarkably well.

    There’s always work to improve the voting system – the Constitution reminds Americans to work toward a “more perfect union.” But the fact that we can and should do better should not shake people’s confidence in the integrity of the election results overall.

    The Electoral College means that a few thousand voters in a few swing states are going to decide the winner. It’s going to be up to those voters, flat out – who decides to cast a ballot and who they decide to vote for – not a deus ex machina. The election process is designed to tell us who we chose, not to determine the answer without us.



    Read more:
    Why Pennsylvania is the key to a Harris or Trump Electoral College victory

    Of course, it has happened that a presidential election came down to 537 votes in a single state – remember Florida in 2000. When it’s that close, everything matters. A butterfly ballot flaps its wings in one part of the country and the answer changes nationwide.

    But 537 votes is an anomaly. The elections of 2016 and 2020 were very close in the states that determined the Electoral College results – but still nowhere near Florida-in-2000 close.

    And because of all the fail-safes built into the system, even very close is something the election process can handle. I’m very confident that the voters are going to decide this election, not the lawyers or the courts.

    Electoral process porn is adult fiction. In the real world, it turns out “The Key To The Whole Thing This Time” isn’t a process quirk. It’s us.

    Professor Levitt served as the country’s first White House Senior Policy Advisor for Democracy and Voting Rights, from 2021-2022.

    – ref. Don’t panic reading ‘electoral process porn’: There are plenty of safeguards to make sure voters’ wishes are respected – https://theconversation.com/dont-panic-reading-electoral-process-porn-there-are-plenty-of-safeguards-to-make-sure-voters-wishes-are-respected-241403

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: On Ukraine, candidate Trump touts his role as dealmaker while Harris sticks with unwavering support

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lena Surzhko Harned, Associate Teaching Professor of Political Science, Penn State

    Continued support from the White House for Ukraine could hinge on the presidential election. AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

    The U.S. presidential election isn’t drawing eyes only at home – Moscow and Kyiv are watching closely, too.

    Regardless of who wins in November, there will be significant implications for Ukraine as it continues to resist Russia in a war heading toward a fourth year.

    Washington’s continued support is seen by some as no less than an existential issue for Ukraine. Without U.S. arms and aid, it is unlikely that the nation would be able to continue repelling its larger, better-armed neighbor.

    During the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump had a chance to clarify their positions on Ukraine. Trump evaded ABC moderator David Muir’s question regarding the importance of Ukraine’s victory over Russia, twice. Instead, he repeated his long-standing line that he would achieve a negotiated peace quickly – even before taking office as president.

    At the same debate, Harris dismissed the idea of Trump negotiating with “a dictator who would eat you for lunch.” She instead emphasized the Biden policy to support Ukraine “as long as it takes” in concert with U.S. allies.

    But detail has been light on what either candidate would actually do to support Ukraine and end the war. So, what do we know about each candidate’s approach to Ukraine based on their records?

    Trump: A ‘very fair and rapid deal’?

    Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has repeatedly stated that ending the war is in the U.S.’s best interests and that he can end the war quickly. In fact, Trump is certain that had he remained president after the 2020 election, Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded – an unsubstantiated claim he repeated during the Sept. 10 presidential debate.

    Trump has often reiterated that both Putin and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy respect him, and he would be able to use his “good relationship” with both to bring them to the negotiating table and end the war.

    Yet, Trump’s record on his relationships with Zelenskyy and Putin is rather complicated.

    Trump’s admiration for Putin is well documented and dates back to his first presidential run in 2016, sparking numerous investigations and reports of collusion. Most recently, Bob Woodward reported that Trump secretly sent COVID-19 tests to Putin in the midst of a pandemic shortage, a claim confirmed by the Kremlin.

    Trump’s relationship with Zelenskyy is similarly laden with baggage. A 2019 phone call between the two men, during which Trump pressured Ukraine’s president to open a criminal investigation into Joe Biden, led to Trump’s impeachment. In exchange, Ukraine would have received continued U.S. support for the country’s defense against Russia, which had been waging a proxy war in eastern regions of Ukraine since 2014. During the subsequent hearings in Congress, one of Trump’s aids testified that “Trump did not give a sh*t about Ukraine” and was only interested in his own political gains.

    Standing next to Zelenskyy during a meeting at the Trump Tower on Sept. 27, 2024 – their first meeting since Sept. 25, 2019 – Trump said he was sure that both Zelenskyy and Putin are interested in peace and that a “very fair” and “rapid” deal is possible.

    When asked what that deal might entail, Trump responded that it’s “too early” to discuss details and that both he and Zelenskyy have “their own ideas.”

    While the Republican candidate has not been explicit on the details of negotiations or possible conditions, some of his proxies have voiced proposals. Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance, has laid out a plan that includes potential land concessions on the part of Ukraine and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the battle lines of the Russian-occupied territory of eastern Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s son Donald Jr. co-authored a piece with former presidential candidate turned Trump ally Robert F Kennedy Jr., arguing that a concession to Russian demands for “Ukrainian neutrality and a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion” were reasonable to avoid a nuclear game of chicken. Although these have not been echoed in Trump’s own statements on Ukraine, both men have the ear of the Republican candidate.

    These plans have been criticized as closely resembling those of the Kremlin. Prior to meeting with Trump in New York, Zelenskyy had also criticized Vance’s plan and expressed doubts that Trump and his team really know how to end the war.

    Harris: ‘Strategic interest, not charity’

    Harris has been harshly critical of Trump’s approach to Ukraine. “They are not proposals for peace,” Harris said in response to suggestions that Ukraine cede territory for peace. “Instead they are proposals for surrender,” she added.

    Such views are in line with Harris’ record. As part of the Biden administration, Harris has given vocal support to Ukraine’s fight for political sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    At the onset of the full-scale invasion in early 2022, Harris traveled to Europe to help shore up a coalition of European allies to support Ukraine.

    As vice president, Harris has repeatedly condemned Russian war crimes in Ukraine. In February 2023, while attending the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, she announced that the U.S. has determined that Russian actions in Ukraine amounted to “crimes against humanity,” affirming U.S. commitment to the international rule of law.

    Along with continued support, the U.S. has provided substantial aid for Ukraine, totaling US$61.3 billion in military aid since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    The Biden administration also has said that rising costs and keeping pressure on Russia through sanctions are important mechanisms to keep Moscow accountable. Harris reiterated this need to maintain sanctions and broad coalition support for Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024 and again in June at the peace summit organized by Ukraine in Switzerland.

    As a presidential candidate, Harris has openly signaled her commitment to supporting Kyiv – not only for Ukraine survival but for the collective security of NATO allies and the U.S. itself. Harris emphasized this point in the September debate, suggesting that Ukraine was not Putin’s final stop and that he has “his eyes on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland.”

    Standing next to Zelenskyy in Washington on Sept. 26, 2024, Harris reiterated the point: “The United States supports Ukraine not out of charity, but because it’s in our strategic interest.”

    Yet, White House policy on Ukraine has been criticized for being slow and hesitant in supplying weaponry. The U.S. has imposed rules on the use of heavy weaponry against targets inside Russia. Furthermore, the U.S. has so far been reticent on Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO, which is seen as crucial for any lasting peace in Kyiv. How Harris’ White House would differ from Biden’s on these issues is not clear.

    Beyond the candidates

    Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the U.S. Congress has passed five bills that provide aid to Ukraine, totaling US$175 billion.

    However, a six-month delay in aid in early 2024 highlighted growing partisan tension in Congress over continued aid to Ukraine.

    The composition of Congress after the November election is another unknown factor in Washington’s support for Ukraine. Zelenskyy met with congressional leaders during his visit to the U.S. in September, but notably absent was Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who in the past has shown reluctance to support continued funding.

    For the large part, support for Ukraine remains bipartisan in Congress and among American voters. Yet there is a risk the election could further politicize the issue. And the outcome of November’s vote could determine whether U.S. efforts going forward focus more on pushing for a negotiated deal or on-going support for Ukraine.

    Lena Surzhko Harned does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. On Ukraine, candidate Trump touts his role as dealmaker while Harris sticks with unwavering support – https://theconversation.com/on-ukraine-candidate-trump-touts-his-role-as-dealmaker-while-harris-sticks-with-unwavering-support-237534

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Women are at a higher risk of dying from heart disease − in part because doctors don’t take major sex and gender differences into account

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Amy Huebschmann, Professor of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Rates of heart disease and cardiac events in women are often underestimated. eternalcreative/iStock via Getty Images

    A simple difference in the genetic code – two X chromosomes versus one X chromosome and one Y chromosome – can lead to major differences in heart disease. It turns out that these genetic differences influence more than just sex organs and sex assigned at birth – they fundamentally alter the way cardiovascular disease develops and presents.

    While sex influences the mechanisms behind how cardiovascular disease develops, gender plays a role in how health care providers recognize and manage it. Sex refers to biological characteristics such as genetics, hormones, anatomy and physiology, while gender refers to social, psychological and cultural constructs. Women are more likely to die after a first heart attack or stroke than men. Women are also more likely to have additional or different heart attack symptoms that go beyond chest pain, such as nausea, jaw pain, dizziness and fatigue. It is often difficult to fully disentangle the influences of sex on cardiovascular disease outcomes versus the influences of gender.

    While women who haven’t entered menopause have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease than men, their cardiovascular risk accelerates dramatically after menopause. In addition, if a woman has Type 2 diabetes, her risk of heart attack accelerates to be equivalent to that of men, even if the woman with diabetes has not yet gone through menopause. Further data is needed to better understand differences in cardiovascular disease risk among nonbinary and transgender patients.

    Despite these differences, one key thing is the same: Heart attack, stroke and other forms of cardiovascular disease are the leading cause of death for all people, regardless of sex or gender.

    We are researchers who study women’s health and the way cardiovascular disease develops and presents differently in women and men. Our work has identified a crucial need to update medical guidelines with more sex-specific approaches to diagnosis and treatment in order to improve health outcomes for all.

    Gender differences in heart disease

    The reasons behind sex and gender differences in cardiovascular disease are not completely known. Nor are the distinct biological effects of sex, such as hormonal and genetic factors, versus gender, such as social, cultural and psychological factors, clearly differentiated.

    What researchers do know is that the accumulated evidence of what good heart care should look like for women compared with men has as many holes in it as Swiss cheese. Medical evidence for treating cardiovascular disease often comes from trials that excluded women, since women for the most part weren’t included in scientific research until the NIH Revitalization Act of 1993. For example, current guidelines to treat cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are based primarily on data from men. This is despite evidence that differences in the way that cardiovascular disease develops leads women to experience cardiovascular disease differently.

    Gender biases in health care influence the kind of tests and attention that women receive.
    FG Trade Latin/E+ via Getty Images

    In addition to sex differences, implicit gender biases among providers and gendered social norms among patients lead clinicians to underestimate the risk of cardiac events in women compared with men. These biases play a role in why women are more likely than men to die from cardiac events. For example, for patients with symptoms that are borderline for cardiovascular disease, clinicians tend to be more aggressive in ordering artery imaging for men than for women. One study linked this tendency to order less aggressive tests for women partly to a gender bias that men are more open than women to taking risks.

    In a study of about 3,000 patients with a recent heart attack, women were less likely than men to think that their heart attack symptoms were due to a heart condition. Additionally, most women do not know that cardiovascular disease is the No. 1 cause of death among women. Overall, women’s misperceptions of their own risk may hold them back from getting a doctor to check out possible symptoms of a heart attack or stroke.

    These issues are further exacerbated for women of color. Lack of access to health care and additional challenges drive health disparities among underrepresented racial and ethnic minority populations.

    Sex difference in heart disease

    Cardiovascular disease physically looks different for women and men, specifically in the plaque buildup on artery walls that contributes to illness.

    Women have fewer cholesterol crystals and fewer calcium deposits in their artery plaque than men do. Physiological differences in the smallest blood vessels feeding the heart also play a role in cardiovascular outcomes.

    Women are more likely than men to have cardiovascular disease that presents as multiple narrowed arteries that are not fully “clogged,” resulting in chest pain because blood flow can’t ratchet up enough to meet higher oxygen demands with exercise, much like a low-flow showerhead. When chest pain presents in this way, doctors call this condition ischemia and no obstructive coronary arteries. In comparison, men are more likely to have a “clogged” artery in a concentrated area that can be opened up with a stent or with cardiac bypass surgery. Options for multiple narrowed arteries have lagged behind treatment options for typical “clogged” arteries, which puts women at a disadvantage.

    In addition, in the early stages of a heart attack, the levels of blood markers that indicate damage to the heart are lower in women than in men. This can lead to more missed diagnoses of coronary artery disease in women compared with men.

    The reasons for these differences are not fully clear. Some potential factors include differences in artery plaque composition that make men’s plaque more likely to rupture or burst and women’s plaque more likely to erode. Women also have lower heart mass and smaller arteries than men even after taking body size into consideration.

    Reducing sex disparities

    Too often, women with symptoms of cardiovascular disease are sent away from doctor’s offices because of gender biases that “women don’t get heart disease.”

    Considering how symptoms of cardiovascular disease vary by sex and gender could help doctors better care for all patients.

    One way that the rubber is meeting the road is with regard to better approaches to diagnosing heart attacks for women and men. Specifically, when diagnosing heart attacks, using sex-specific cutoffs for blood tests that measure heart damage – called high-sensitivity troponin tests – can improve their accuracy, decreasing missed diagnoses, or false negatives, in women while also decreasing overdiagnoses, or false positives, in men.

    Our research laboratory’s leaders,collaborators and other internationally recognized research colleagues – some of whom partner with our Ludeman Family Center for Women’s Health Research on the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus – will continue this important work to close this gap between the sexes in health care. Research in this field is critical to shine a light on ways clinicians can better address sex-specific symptoms and to bring forward more tailored treatments.

    The Biden administration’s recent executive order to advance women’s health research is paving the way for research to go beyond just understanding what causes sex differences in cardiovascular disease. Developing and testing right-sized approaches to care for each patient can help achieve better health for all.

    Amy Huebschmann receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the National Heart Lung Blood Institute, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, the United States Health Resources and Services Administration and the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Health and Human Services, or the United States government.

    Judith Regensteiner receives funding from the National Institutes of Health focused on sex differences in the cardiovascular consequences of type 2 diabetes. She also has a mentoring grant from the NIH.

    – ref. Women are at a higher risk of dying from heart disease − in part because doctors don’t take major sex and gender differences into account – https://theconversation.com/women-are-at-a-higher-risk-of-dying-from-heart-disease-in-part-because-doctors-dont-take-major-sex-and-gender-differences-into-account-233861

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colonialism’s legacy has left Caribbean nations much more vulnerable to hurricanes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Farah Nibbs, Assistant Professor of Emergency and Disaster Health Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

    Hillside streets can quickly become muddy rivers during hurricane rains in the islands. Estailove St-Val/AFP via Getty Images

    Long before colonialism brought slavery to the Caribbean, the native islanders saw hurricanes and storms as part of the normal cycle of life.

    The Taino of the Greater Antilles and the Kalinago, or Caribs, of the Lesser Antilles developed systems that enabled them to live with storms and limit their exposure to damage.

    On the larger islands, such as Jamaica and Cuba, the Taino practiced crop selection with storms in mind, preferring to plant root crops such as cassava or yucca with high resistance to damage from hurricane and storm winds, as Stuart Schwartz describes in his 2016 book “Sea of Storms.”

    The Kalinago avoided building their settlements along the coast to limit storm surges and wind damage. The Calusa of southwest Florida used trees as windbreaks against storm winds.

    In fact, it was the Kalinago and Taino who first taught the Europeans – primarily the British, Dutch, French and Spanish – about hurricanes and storms. Even the word ‘hurricane’ comes from Huracán, a Taino and Mayan word denoting the god of wind.

    But then colonialism changed everything.

    A French advertising card from around 1900 depicts colonial power in Guadeloupe, with a trader sitting comfortably among sacks of cotton, cocoa and coffee while islanders work in the field.
    Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    I study natural disasters in the Caribbean, including how history molded responses to disasters today.

    The current disaster crisis that the Caribbean’s small islands are experiencing as hurricanes intensify did not start a few decades ago. Rather, the islands’ vulnerability is a direct result of the exploitative systems forced upon the region by colonialism, its legacies of slave-based land policies and ill-suited construction and development practices, and its environmental injustices.

    Forcing people into harm’s way

    The colonial powers changed how Caribbean people interacted with the land, where they lived and how they recovered from natural hazard events.

    Rather than growing crops that could sustain the local food supply, the Europeans who began arriving in the 1600s focused on exploitative extractive economic models and export cash crops through the plantation economy.

    They forced Indigenous people off their lands and built settlements along the coast, which made it easier to import enslaved peoples and goods and to export cash crops such as sugar and tobacco to Europe – and also left communities vulnerable to storms. They also developed settlements in low-lying areas, often near rivers and streams, which could provide transportation for agricultural produce but which became flood risks during heavy rains.

    Homes built to the water’s edge in Saint-Martin, an overseas collectivity of France, were devastated when Hurricane Irma hit in 2017.
    Helene Valenzuela/AFP via Getty Images

    Today, more than 70% of the Caribbean’s population lives along the coast, often less than a mile from the shore. These coastlines are not only highly exposed to hurricanes but also to sea-level rise fueled by climate change.

    Legacies of slave-based land policies

    Colonialism’s legacy of land policies has also made recovery from disasters much harder today.

    When colonial powers took over, a few landowners were given control of most of the land, while the majority of the population was forced onto marginal and small areas. The local population had no legal right to the land, as the people did not possess land certificate titles or deeds and were often forced to pay rent to landlords.

    After independence, most island governments tried to acquire land from former plantations or estates and to redistribute it to the working class. But these efforts, mainly in the 1960s and ’70s, largely failed to transform land ownership, improve economic development or reduce vulnerability.

    One colonial legacy perpetuating vulnerability to this day is known as crown land, or state land. In the English-speaking Caribbean, all land for which there was no land grant was considered property of the British crown. Crown land can be found in every English-speaking island to this day.

    How colonial powers controlled the Caribbean over time.

    For example, in Barbuda, all land is vested in the “crown in perpetuity” on behalf of Barbudans. This means that an individual born on the island of Barbuda cannot individually own land.

    Instead, land is communally owned, which limits access to the credit and development opportunities that were sorely needed to reconstruct the island after Hurricane Maria in 2017. Most Barbudans were unable to insure their homes because they had no title deeds to their property.

    This and other collective land tenure systems created by colonialism places Caribbean residents at greater risk from a variety of natural hazards and limits their ability to seek financial credit for disaster recovery today.

    The roots of poor construction

    Vulnerability to disasters in the Caribbean also has roots in post-slavery housing construction and subsequent failures to institute proper building codes.

    After emancipation from slavery, freed people had no right nor access to land. To build houses, they were forced to lease land from the former enslavers who at a whim could terminate their employment or kick them off the land.

    This led to the development of a particular type of housing structure known as chattel houses in countries such as Barbados. These houses are tiny and were constructed in a way in which they could be easily taken apart and loaded onto carts, should the residents be forced out by their former enslavers. Many Bajans still live in these houses today, although quite a few have been converted to restaurants or shops.

    Chattel houses are still used as homes in Barbados.
    Shardalow via Wikimedia, CC BY

    In Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, owned by the Dutch, slave huts were built along the coast, on land not suitable for agriculture and easily damaged by storms. These former slave huts are now tourist attractions, but the colonial patterns of settling along the coast has left many coastal communities exposed to hurricane damage and rising seas.

    The vulnerability of such houses is not only a result of their exposure to natural hazards but also the underlying social structures.

    Slave huts were built on the coast in Bonaire, where they were vulnerable to storm surge.
    Leslie Ket via Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    In many islands today, poorer residents can’t afford protective measures, such as installing storm shutters or purchasing solar-powered generators.

    They often live in marginal and disaster-prone areas, such as steep hillsides, where housing tends to be cheaper. Houses in these areas are also often poorly constructed with low-grade materials, such as galvanized sheeting for roofs and walls.

    This situation is made worse by the informal and unregulated nature of residential housing construction in the region and the poor enforcement of building codes.

    Due to the legacy of colonialism, most housing or building standards or codes in the Commonwealth Caribbean are relics from the United Kingdom and in the French Antilles from France. Building standards across the region lack uniformity and are generally subjective and uncontrolled. Financial limitations and staffing constraints mean that codes and standards more often than not remain unenforced.

    Progress, but still a lot of work to do

    The Caribbean has made progress in developing wind-related building codes to try to increase resilience in recent years. And while damage from torrential rain is still not properly addressed in most Caribbean building standards, scientific guidance is available through the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology in Barbados.

    Individual islands, including Dominica and Saint Lucia, have new minimum building standards for recovery after disasters. The island of Grenada is hoping to guide new construction as it recovers from Hurricane Beryl. Trinidad and Tobago has developed a national land use strategy but has struggled to use it.

    Construction standards can help the islands build resilience. But work remains to be done to overcome the legacy of colonial-era land policies and development that have left island towns vulnerable to increasing storm risks.

    Farah Nibbs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Colonialism’s legacy has left Caribbean nations much more vulnerable to hurricanes – https://theconversation.com/colonialisms-legacy-has-left-caribbean-nations-much-more-vulnerable-to-hurricanes-231913

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The whip-poor-will has been an omen of death for centuries − what happened to this iconic bird of American horror?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jared Del Rosso, Associate Professor of Sociology and Criminology, University of Denver

    An illustration, drawn and engraved, of an eastern whip-poor-will, by Richard Polydore Nodder. Florilegius/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    In one of the most haunting scenes of Stephen King’s 1975 novel “Salem’s Lot,” a gravedigger named Mike Ryerson races to bury the coffin of a local boy named Danny Glick. As night approaches, a troubling thought overtakes Mike: Danny has been buried with his eyes open. Worse, Mike senses that Danny is looking through the closed coffin back at him.

    A mania overcomes Mike. Prayers run through his head – “the ways things like that will for no good reason.” Then more disturbing thoughts intrude: “Now I bring you spoiled meat and reeking flesh.” Mike leaps into the hole he’s dug and furiously shovels soil off the coffin. The reader knows what he’s going to do, but ought not to do, next: Mike will open the coffin, freeing whatever Danny has become.

    Enter the whip-poor-wills. Several of them, King writes, “had begun to lift their shrilling call,” the demand for violence that gives the species its name: whip-poor-will.

    This isn’t the first time whip-poor-wills appear in “Salem’s Lot,” nor is it the last time King would invoke them in his work. But despite the importance of the species to King, whip-poor-wills never appear in film and television adaptations of “Salem’s Lot.”

    Released on Oct. 3, 2024, the most recent adaptation of “Salem’s Lot” incorporates birdsong but makes little use of them. Here and there, an American crow or blue jay calls. Sparrowlike chirps pepper scenes at night. And as Mike unburies the undead Danny, the less threatening call of a barred owl replaces that of whip-poor-wills.

    The whip-poor-will got its name from the male’s three-note call that sounds like it’s wailing, ‘Whip poor will.’

    As a cultural sociologist writing a book about eastern whip-poor-wills, I’m interested in this omission not because it reflects an unfaithful recreation of King’s novel. Rather, I see the erasure of whip-poor-wills from “Salem’s Lot” as a symptom of broader ecological changes, one in which species loss is also tied to cultural loss.

    The horror of the night

    As least as early as Washington Irving’s “The Legend of Sleepy Hollow,” the call of whip-poor-wills, a member of the nocturnal nightjar family, haunted American fiction.

    Perhaps the best known whip-poor-wills in American horror appear in H.P. Lovecraft’s novella “The Dunwich Horror.” Lovecraft references the species nearly two dozen times in his story, with the birds often appearing around the deaths of the Whateley family, who live in the fictional town of Dunwich, Massachusetts.

    By behaving in ways that real whip-poor-wills never do, Dunwich’s nightjars symbolize the horrors the Whateleys unleash on the townspeople. The birds also act as psychopomps: beings who guide the souls of the newly deceased to the afterlife.

    Horror writer H.P. Lovecraft.
    Wikimedia Commons

    Dunwich’s whip-poor-wills remain in the town until Halloween – “unnaturally belated,” Lovecraft writes – as they chant in unison with the dying breaths of Whateleys. (Indeed, most whip-poor-wills leave the Northeast by the end of September, and they usually don’t coordinate their singing.) But though whip-poor-wills are essential to the plot of “The Dunwich Horror,” another common owl, this one a great horned owl, replaces whip-poor-wills in the 1970 film adaptation of Lovecraft’s story.

    King, too, uses whip-poor-wills to great effect. In “Jerusalem’s Lot,” the short story King later published as a prelude to “Salem’s Lot,” whip-poor-wills haunt the Maine town. And in his 1989 novel “The Dark Half,” King references the lore of whip-poor-wills as psychopomps.

    Lovecraft’s and King’s fictional whip-poor-wills draw on widespread Indigenous, European and American beliefs about the species. A whip-poor-will singing near one’s home was an especially ominous sign, usually meaning that death would soon take someone in the house. An 1892 article in the American Journal of Folklore documents this belief in King’s home state, Maine. It also offers a story, probably apocryphal, as evidence: “A whippoorwill sang at a back door repeatedly; finally, the woman’s son was brought home dead, and the corpse brought into the house through the back door.”

    Birds and belief disappear

    For the better part of the 19th and early 20th centuries, whip-poor-will lore circulated among people who encountered the bird. Outside of the world of folklore studies, you can find passing mention of ill omens in the nature writing of Henry David Thoreau and Susan Fenimore Cooper, though neither gave credence to these superstitions. Into the 20th century, local newspapers continued to share lore about the birds with their readers.

    But as erasure of the species from horror suggest, broader cultural familiarity with whip-poor-wills has atrophied. In one exception, “Chapelwaite,” a 2021 television series based on King’s “Jerusalem’s Lot,” the characters explicitly discuss the birds’ behaviors, so that viewers understand the reference.

    The cultural erasure of whip-poor-wills mirrors the species’ actual decline. Conservationists estimate that eastern whip-poor-will populations have declined by about 70% since the 1970s. This decline is likely leading to what the naturalist Robert Michael Pyle calls the “extinction of experience.” Pyle reasons that when a species declines, people lose opportunities to encounter it in local landscapes and are less likely to be familiar with it in the first place.

    Such declines also drive social and cultural losses. This is most stark when a species goes extinct. Consider the passenger pigeon. As the writer Jennifer Price shows in her book “Flight Maps,” the life of Americans was once entwined with the species. When massive flocks of passenger pigeons arrived, communities gathered to hunt the birds, which were once an integral part of the American diet. Now, however, the species is remembered almost exclusively as a symbol of human-induced extinction.

    A passenger pigeon pictured in the early 20th century, shortly before the species went extinct.
    Bettmann/Getty Images

    Similarly, the decline of common birds alters people’s relationships to the environment. For instance, in the U.K., the decline of house sparrows robs landscapes of the beloved sight and sound of a once ubiquitous species. The loss of common cuckoos, meanwhile, means that spring arrives in the U.K. without its iconic song.

    Beyond cultures of loss

    I think we are witnessing similar cultural changes with whip-poor-wills. Their absence in the adaptations of King’s work mirrors their absence both in the landscape and in people’s lives. But though loss and grief rightfully characterize many people’s relationship with whip-poor-wills and other declining species, I want to make a case for hope.

    On one hand, there’s reason to be hopeful about the possibility of conservation: Whip-poor-wills appear to respond well to forest management practices that create diverse forests with a mix of younger and older trees. Many places where whip-poor-wills breed have active conservation plans to support the bird and other species that share their habitats.

    Nor are whip-poor-wills culturally extinct.

    After all, readers still find their way to the works of Lovecraft and King. These and other enduring references to the species offer people an opportunity to find their way back to the bird – and to what the species meant to all those who have cared for them.

    Jared Del Rosso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The whip-poor-will has been an omen of death for centuries − what happened to this iconic bird of American horror? – https://theconversation.com/the-whip-poor-will-has-been-an-omen-of-death-for-centuries-what-happened-to-this-iconic-bird-of-american-horror-240873

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As a federal election campaign looms, Canadians must demand stronger ethics laws from politicians

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ian Stedman, Associate Professor, Canadian Public Law & Governance, York University, Canada

    Canadian politics is at a crossroads. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office in 2015, his open letter to Canadians promised them accountability and transparency. As Trudeau’s time as prime minister seems to be winding down, however, his government has been subject to nearly two dozen conflict-of-interest investigations, with Trudeau himself even violating conflict laws.

    Partisan vitriol, electioneering and political brinkmanship are ramping up, with pressing issues like inflation, crime, climate action and housing set to dominate the political news cycle. What must not get lost amid these policy concerns is the urgent need to strengthen Canada’s governmental ethics and accountability laws, especially given the growing Canadian distrust in politicians.

    That includes distrust of those in the current government. A 2023 poll found that two-thirds of 1,632 respondents don’t trust the Trudeau government, with only about a third expressing confidence in the Prime Minister’s Office and less than half trusting the House of Commons.

    The prime minister’s high-profile conflict-of-interest violations highlight the inadequacy of accountability measures. They illustrate that federal ethics laws need reform, particularly the Conflict of Interest Act that applies to public office holders (the Conflict of Interest Code applies to MPs in their role as MPs while the act applies to MPs in their role as ministers or parliamentary secretaries).

    As researchers who focus on the laws of public sector ethics and accountability, we believe ethics issues must be kept in public view and political parties should be pressured to offer meaningful reform ideas in their campaign and party platforms.



    Read more:
    U.S. election results may suggest ethics no longer matter … just like in Canada

    Trudeau’s conflict violations

    Trudeau first breached conflict-of-interest laws in late 2016 and early 2017, when he vacationed with his family on the private Caribbean island of the Aga Khan, a spiritual leader whose foundation is registered to lobby and has received money from the government.

    The prime minister accepted private helicopter travel and other gifts, violating multiple sections of the Conflict of Interest Act.

    Mary Dawson, the ethics commissioner at the time, found that Trudeau had failed to avoid a conflict or to seek advice from her office before accepting the trip. Despite these conclusions, Trudeau faced no formal punishment.

    Trudeau’s second violation was revealed in 2019 amid the SNC-Lavalin affair. In a nutshell, the prime minister attempted to pressure then-Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in a criminal prosecution against the engineering firm, which has its head offices in the same province as Trudeau’s electoral riding.



    Read more:
    SNC-Lavalin & the need for fresh thinking around independence and interference

    The ethics commissioner concluded that Trudeau used his position in an attempt to improperly serve SNC-Lavalin’s interests, breaching provisions of the Conflict of Interest Act. While this scandal rocked the Liberals, Trudeau again faced no real consequences for his actions apart from some ministerial resignations and possibly a failure to gain more Liberal seats in the October 2019 election.

    These incidents have helped foster an environment where conflict-of-interest violations have become normalized. Former ministers Bill Morneau and Yasmin Ratansi, Liberal House Speaker Greg Fergus, current ministers Mary Ng and Randy Boissonnault, along with various government appointees, have all been caught in ethics scandals.

    No consequences

    Regardless of which party holds power, a striking flaw in Canada’s political ethics framework is the lack of clear consequences for violating the Conflict of Interest Act. While ethics commissioners have the authority to investigate and report on violations, their reports are published online and submitted to the prime minister, who then decides whether any consequences will apply.

    Any penalties the commissioner can impose are laughably small, with administrative monetary penalties of no more than a paltry $500 for failing to meet reporting requirements.

    This critical gap places the responsibility for imposing consequences under the act on the person who may have been the one to violate the rules, which is sometimes the leader of the government.

    The prime minister decides on the punishment, even if the investigation concerns a cabinet member. This raises concerns about impartiality. Is there any incentive for the prime minister to actually hold colleagues accountable when they violate conflict-of-interest laws?

    And what message does it send to an already distrustful electorate when the prime minister and his inner circle can repeatedly violate conflict laws, then determine whether they should face consequences for their actions?

    Ongoing ethics concerns

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who was tenacious in 2020 when grilling the prime minister over conflict-of-interest concerns during the WE Charity scandal, seems determined to continue challenging the Liberals on their ethics record.

    Poilievre interrogates Trudeau over the prime minister’s third conflict investigation in five years, this one concerning the WE Charity scandal in 2020. (CTV News)

    Poilievre’s Conservatives recently raised concerns over the controversial appointment of Mark Carney as a special adviser to the Liberal Party. Being appointed to a party position instead of a government job allows Carney to avoid the ethics commissioner’s scrutiny of his private interests yet still advise government officials.

    Additionally, accusations that the Liberals mismanaged the Sustainable Development Technology Canada fund and used it as a “slush fund” for party insiders recently caused Parliament to grind to a halt. The government has refused to provide information on how the fund was managed.

    At the same time, allegations that Trudeau has avoided taking responsibility for foreign interference in Canada’s elections have provided the opposition with further ethics ethics ammunition for an election campaign looming on the horizon.

    Given Trudeau’s poor polling numbers, recent reports about Liberal MPs calling for him to step down and the imminence of yet another cabinet shuffle, government ethics and accountability must take centre stage if the country is to rebuild Canadian trust in government. Updating the Conflict of Interest Act would be a strong and necessary starting point.

    Ethics aren’t a luxury

    Since the Conflict of Interest Act cannot be updated without the involvement of legislators, a cynical observer might wonder how ethics standards can be strengthened.

    One answer is that the Conservatives’ relentless push for an election gives the public a perfect opportunity to demand that proposals to improve conflict-of-interest laws are part of the campaign platforms of all parties.

    This is exactly what happened in 2006 when Stephen Harper led the Conservatives to victory by pledging a more ethical and accountable Ottawa, although his government ultimately faced its own share of scandals.

    Ethical lapses in leadership must not be treated as secondary to pressing economic and social issues. Having a government that continuously strengthens and upholds its ethical standards should not be considered a luxury.

    Strong ethical governance is needed to restore and maintain public trust and to ensure our elected officials are working hard on behalf of Canadians — not in their own self-interest.

    Ian Stedman receives research funding from SSHRC and CIHR. He is also the 2024-25 Jocelyne Bourgon Visiting Scholar at the Canada School of Public Service.

    Matthew Cerilli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As a federal election campaign looms, Canadians must demand stronger ethics laws from politicians – https://theconversation.com/as-a-federal-election-campaign-looms-canadians-must-demand-stronger-ethics-laws-from-politicians-241710

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The poetic violence of Han Kang’s Nobel Prize-winning literature – what you should read, watch and do this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Naomi Joseph, Arts + Culture Editor

    I didn’t seek out The Vegetarian when I first read it. I was on a book buying ban and in the lucky position to be living with a fellow hoarder. As I perused our combined stacks, a slim volume by an author I hadn’t heard of caught my eye, and I am glad it did. The Vegetarian by Han Kang, is exactly my sort of story: dark, disturbing and beautifully wrought.

    Yeong-hye is, as her husband charmingly says, “completely unremarkable in every way” – that is, until she becomes vegetarian. This decision sends her world, and her extended family’s, spinning aggressively off its axis. You may be thinking this is a bit dramatic (vegetarianism is normal), and it is.

    The Korean satirical sensibility often disturbs you into realising humanity is messed up. Parasite (winner of the Oscar for best picture in 2020), Oldboy (the 2003 thriller that inspired John Wick) and The Vegetarian are born of the same sort of urgency to expose our shared ability for violence, which they attest is always there, simmering just beneath the surface.

    The Vegetarian won the 2016 Man Booker International Prize, and Kang has now emerged as the surprise winner of this year’s Nobel prize in literature. She is one of the youngest writers to win. Artful is a word that comes to mind when thinking about her sparse and beautiful prose, which also manages to be so dense in meaning. It makes sense that Kang is a poet, and this quality in her translations is a testament to her translator, Deborah Smith.

    As our writer, Jenni Ramone, notes, The Vegetarian was likely to have been the work that influenced the judging panel the most. Kang manages to fit a lot of horror into this slim text (it’s less than 200 pages) without it feeling crowded. It’s a searing novel, visceral and savage in its imagery, which is so elegantly and economically described.

    I am currently in the lucky position of possessing an early reader copy of Kang’s newest novel We Do Not Part, which is out next year. I am so excited to get stuck in. Until then, I urge you to read The Vegetarian and to delve further into Kang’s catalogue, her poetry in particular.

    This got us thinking about the difference between writing poetry and prose. Is it obvious that a good poet would write good prose, and vice versa? Answer our poll and reply to this email with your thoughts and examples where poets have written good or bad prose, and prose writers have written bad or good poetry.



    Read more:
    Han Kang: innovative South Korean author wins the 2024 Nobel prize for literature

    Korean art and British horror

    Hallyu, the wave of Korean art and culture that has taken the west by storm, is going strong. Literature is getting its moment in the sun right now, and maybe Korea’s art will be next. If you want to be ahead of the curve, you should head down to London’s Southbank where you can catch artist Haegue Yang’s Leap Year at the Hayward Gallery.

    The work is bright and bold, Yang is certainly an original and radical. The exhibition is a major retrospective of her work in which you will find collage, sculpture and installations featuring sound and even scent. Our reviewer, Martin Lang, writes: “Yang’s work suggests that art, too, has the power to bridge divides and foster empathy, breaking down barriers between cultures.”



    Read more:
    Haegue Yang’s Leap Year is a bold and diverse show mixing cultural references and folk traditions

    “I remember watching it as a teenager in a lesson at school and once was enough for me,” writes politics academic Mark Lacy of the BBC film Threads, a truly terrifying imagining of the impact of a nuclear war on a city in the north of England from 1984. The film hasn’t been available to watch for decades, but has recently been put on iPlayer for us all to relive its horror.

    As Lacy outlines, “it’s a brutal and grim tour of the aftermath of nuclear war, which anyone who viewed it when originally aired may struggle to watch again”. Lacy watched it at a time when the possibility of cold war tensions escalating was very real. While we have certainly been exposed to more nuclear fallout stories since, the film is once again available to watch at a time when the fear of attacks on nuclear facilities is again in the news.



    Read more:
    Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times

    The making of legends

    The film The Apprentice also comes at a time of great nervousness as the US election draws near. The film, set in the 1970s and 1980s, charts the business career of presidential hopeful Donald Trump. It centres around Trump’s relationship with the prosecutor Roy Cohn, from whom he is said to have learned underhanded ways of business and Machiavellian dealmaking.

    As our reviewer, professor of international relations Michelle Bentley, writes, it comes at a controversial time – with fewer than three weeks until the election. “The film seeks to get inside Trump’s mindset, not only as a businessperson, but unpicking what drove him in the White House, as well as the election he’s now fighting,” writes Bentley, who goes on to explain whether the film will affect the election at all. It is certainly a major event in this dramatic election.



    Read more:
    The Apprentice: released so close to the polls, this Trump biopic is inevitably political

    There are so many brilliant music documentaries giving long-deserved dues to musicians who have fallen into obscurity but who had major influence on so many artists and genres. Think the films Searching For Sugarman and Getting It Back: The Story of Cymande. A wonderful new addition to this genre is Harder Than the Rock about the Cimarons.

    This lovely piece by sociologist Kenny Monrose is full of childhood anecdotes of their music. The group were the UK’s first reggae band, and looking at the long list of people they worked with, from Bob Marley to Paul McCartney, it’s startling how little known they are – even by the film’s director, Mark Warmington. My colleague Anna said she had a wonderful afternoon editing Monrose’s piece while listening to the band’s music, which you we highly recommend you do too.



    Read more:
    Why the Cimarons are one of the greatest British bands of all time – as documentary Harder Than the Rock shows

    – ref. The poetic violence of Han Kang’s Nobel Prize-winning literature – what you should read, watch and do this week – https://theconversation.com/the-poetic-violence-of-han-kangs-nobel-prize-winning-literature-what-you-should-read-watch-and-do-this-week-241601

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: If your child is watching TV and playing online games, you should do it with them – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jamie Lingwood, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Liverpool Hope University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Young children spend a lot of time using screens: watching television, playing on touchscreen apps, or facetiming with grandparents. In fact, research on global screen time guidelines has found that around 75% of children aged up to two years use some form of digital media daily, and 64% of children aged two to five years use it for more than an hour a day.

    Digital media is part of children’s lives and is set to stay that way. This means it is crucial to understand how to use this technology so children can benefit from it, and how to maximise its educational potential.

    A key way to do this is for parents and other adults to use digital media together with children. This is known as co-use, and can range from parents actively discussing the media content with their children to simply watching a show together.

    Our recent research with colleagues has investigated how adults using digital media with children aged up to six affects children’s ability to learn from digital media.

    We carried out a meta-analysis: a wide-ranging examination of existing research studies to identify trends and themes.

    We found that, overall, parent-child co-use is helpful for supporting young children’s learning from digital media. Adults using digital media together with children can help them understand and relate to the digital content better. Our research chimes with other studies which suggest that, for instance, parents using digital media with children can boost language skills.

    Our findings suggest that by being actively engaged, adults can help their children make the most of the educational benefits of digital media. This could involve one-to-one interactions directing their child’s attention to the educational content and relating it to real-world situations.

    Here are some practical tips for parents to maximise the benefits of co-using digital media with their children.

    Be an active participant

    Don’t just sit next to your child while they use digital media — engage with them. Ask questions about what they are watching or playing, and encourage them to think critically about the content. For example, if they are watching a video, you might ask “what do you think will happen next?” or “why do you think the character did that?”

    ‘Scaffold’ learning

    Scaffolding is a teaching technique in which parents can provide support to help their child understand new concepts, then let them use that concept by themselves. During co-use, you can scaffold by explaining difficult words, relating on-screen content to real-life experiences, or helping your child apply what they’ve learned from the media to other day-to-day situations.

    Choose high-quality content

    Not all digital media is created equal. Look for educational content designed to teach specific skills, whether it’s language, maths, or social-emotional learning.

    An educational app should have a clear learning goal, include problems for children to solve, and offer clear and specific feedback to support children’s learning. It should be presented with an entertaining narrative.

    Look for educational apps with learning goals.
    M_Agency/Shutterstock

    Apps and shows that encourage interaction and problem-solving are particularly valuable. Other research suggests that the quality of the content plays a crucial role in how much children learn from it.

    Encourage discussion and reflection

    After engaging with digital media, encourage your child to talk about what they watched or played. This helps reinforce the material and allows you to address any misunderstandings. Reflection helps children make connections between what they’ve learned and their own lives, deepening their understanding. For instance, if a show teaches about penguins, you could follow up by discussing if you might see penguins at the zoo, or which books your child has read that they appear in.

    Adapt your approach as your child grows

    As children get older, they may need less direct support during media use – but co-use remains valuable. Older children might benefit from discussions that challenge them to think critically about the media they consume. It could help them explore related activities, such as researching a topic they saw in a documentary or creating something inspired by what they watched.

    Balance screen time with other activities

    Digital media can help children learn. But it’s important to balance screen time with other activities that support development, such as reading, playing outside, and interacting with others face-to-face. Our study emphasises that for digital media to form part of a well-rounded day, families should try to co-use it with their children.

    Jamie Lingwood receives funding from Educational Endowment Foundation

    Gemma Taylor has previously received funding from the ESRC.

    – ref. If your child is watching TV and playing online games, you should do it with them – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/if-your-child-is-watching-tv-and-playing-online-games-you-should-do-it-with-them-heres-why-238615

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Antifungal resistance is not getting nearly as much attention as antibiotic resistance – yet the risks to global health are just as serious

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Norman van Rhijn, Research Fellow in Microbial Evolution, Manchester University

    TopMicrobialStock/Shutterstock

    Fungi are known for causing superficial infections of the nails, skin and hair, but they can also cause systemic infections that can have much more serious health implications. Indeed, over 6.5 million people are infected yearly with a life-threatening fungal infection, leading to 3.8 million deaths.

    Many of the fungi we know are an essential part of nitrogen and carbon recycling in the environment through their action of decomposing complex material. As they grow, they can undergo “sporulation”, where they release tiny spores that are dispersed on air currents. These spores are breathed in but are usually cleared by the lungs.

    However, this clearing is impaired in people with lung issues, such as cystic fibrosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, tuberculosis and lung cancer, putting them at a significant risk of developing a fungal lung infection.

    Many of the fungal pathogens are resistant to treatment with current drugs – of which only four classes are in use – or can rapidly acquire resistance during treatment or in their natural environment. As with bacteria and antibiotic resistance, so fungi can evolve to become resistant to the drugs used to treat them.

    In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) published the fungal pathogens priority list that catalogued fungi that pose a significant risk to human health. Of critical importance are Candida albicans and auris, Aspergillus fumigatus and Cryptococcus neoformans.

    The WHO list was designed to guide public health action and boost research and awareness in this field. Yet it has become clear that the desired effect of including fungal infections in the antimicrobial resistance policy debate is yet to be achieved. In a recent series of four articles in The Lancet about antimicrobial resistance (which includes resistance to bacteria, fungi, viruses and parasites), the problem of fungal disease contained just five sentences on the issue.

    The second UN-hosted meeting on antimicrobial resistance took place on September 26. Aside from the wider acknowledgement of antimicrobial resistance, the meeting drew attention to the growing problem of fungal pathogens and their resistance to known treatments, globally.

    Combating drug-resistant fungal infections is a complex problem. An important factor is that diagnoses of infections are often delayed – if they are even diagnosed at all. Simple tests for fungal infections are rarely available and only a few simple lateral flow tests are available.

    More sensitive tests require trained personnel and expensive equipment, which is usually not available in laboratories in poorer countries.

    Another issue is that antifungal drug development takes a long time and is very expensive. Fungal and human cells are more similar than bacterial and human cells, making finding antifungal targets with minimal toxicity to humans difficult.

    Because of this, only several antifungals that work differently to traditional antifungals are being developed. But even after they reach the market, the development of resistance in fungi is a threat to these treatments.

    Tons of fungicides are used annually to protect crops, of which some work the same way as antifungals used in humans. An example of this is an antifungal drug class called the azoles. There is strong evidence to suggest that azole resistance in the clinic can be of environmental origin due to agriculturally used azoles.

    This is a particular problem in Aspergillus fumigatus, where some hospitals and research centres have reported resistance to azoles in up to 20% of fungal samples.

    Over the last 25 years, a compound with a novel mechanism of action has been in development called olorofim. This compound is effective against many fungal pathogens. It is expected to be approved for use in humans soon.

    But recently a fungicide for agricultural use, ipflufenoquin, has been approved in the US, that works the same way as olorofim. This makes the risk of resistance to both compounds high as they both target Aspergillus fumigatus the same way – or, in the lingo, they have the same mechanism of action. Resistance to one compound will cause resistance to the other compound.

    This is not the only example of the dual-use of antifungals where compounds with the same way of working are used on farms and in hospitals and doctors’ clinics. This is a high risk for resistance development to antifungals we desperately need to treat human infections. The agricultural fungicide aminopyrifen has a similar target to the antifungal fosmanogepix, which can be used to treat humans.

    Environmentally acquired resistant fungi can cause infections in patients and therefore, from the first day of treatment, can’t be treated with the desired antifungal. As food security requires antifungal protection from plant pathogens, the question arises: how do we balance human health and crop health?

    The latest threat makes these issues more pressing

    The rise of fungal pathogens that we have only seen more recently, such as Candida auris, make these issues even more important.

    Candida auris is a yeast that was first found in 2009 and has spread globally since. It can cause life-threatening infections and has caused outbreaks in hospitals in several countries, including the UK. Unfortunately, it is resistant to many of the antifungals that are currently available.

    The UN-hosted AMR meeting was a good starting point, getting fungi and antimicrobial resistance acknowledged globally. However, it is unclear what specific action will be put into place to combat fungal resistance. But having this discussion is a first step to making progress on an issue that affects so many people daily.

    Norman van Rhijn receives funding from Wellcome Trust.

    – ref. Antifungal resistance is not getting nearly as much attention as antibiotic resistance – yet the risks to global health are just as serious – https://theconversation.com/antifungal-resistance-is-not-getting-nearly-as-much-attention-as-antibiotic-resistance-yet-the-risks-to-global-health-are-just-as-serious-239677

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How your online world could change if big tech companies like Google are forced to break up

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    vectorfusionart/Shutterstock

    The US Department of Justice may be on the verge of seeking a break-up of Google in a bid to make it less dominant. If the government goes ahead and is successful in the courts, it could mean the company being split into separate entities – a search engine, an advertising company, a video website, a mapping app – which would not be allowed to share data with each other.

    While this is still a distant prospect, it is being considered in the wake of a series of rulings in the US and the EU which suggest that regulators are becoming increasingly frustrated by the power of big tech. That power tends to be highly concentrated, whether it’s Google’s monopoly as a search engine, Meta’s data gathering from Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, or by small businesses becoming dependent on Amazon.

    But what would a breakup of these tech giants achieve for consumers? Those in favour of shaking up Silicon Valley in this way argue that it would lead to more competition and more choice. And the best-case future scenario might look something like this:

    The year is 2030, and you are on your way to meet a friend for a meal. You receive a message notification on WhatsApp, which was sent by your friend using her Signal messaging app. Sending and receiving messages from different apps is now so common you barely notice it.

    In fact, “interoperability” – where different systems and tech work seamlessly together – is everywhere. In the same way you could send an email from Gmail to Hotmail back in 2024, you can now choose from a range of social media apps – alongside Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat – with text, pictures and video posted on one network easily accessible via another.

    You choose an app because you like the way it looks or the way it filters and presents content – not just because everyone else is on it.

    Similarly, your choice of restaurant and information on directions came from apps you have chosen from a much wider selection than the one you had access to back in 2024. You look at reviews produced by people you follow, irrespective of the platform they used to share it.

    Product placement and AI-generated content have practically disappeared, as the mapping app does not want to risk giving you advice you don’t want. If it did, you would simply switch to a competitor which provides a superior service.

    This increased level of competition is central to those who argue for breaking up big tech. Instead of app developers having to pay 30% of their sales to Google or Apple, there would be numerous app stores available, all competing to offer the best apps by cutting their profit margins. The theory is that the app market – and technological innovation – would thrive as a result.

    Research also suggests that the existence of competing apps makes consumers less lazy, and forces businesses to deliver better products, and better value for money.

    Private browsing

    In 2024, you would have had to trust the results provided to you by Google search, Google Maps, or a Google advert. And because Google owned your data, it could auction information about you to other businesses trying to reach you, without your say.

    You might have found Google’s services useful, but most of the benefit from personalised data would have gone to Google. And another big change that could come from breaking up big tech is that you might finally become the unique owner of that data.

    Potentially, you would be the only one with full access to your browsing history – the products you searched for, the ones you bought and the ones you almost bought. You would own the information about where you went for lunch, what you ordered, and how much you spent.

    Other information that would be owned by you might include how you commute to work, which video clips make you laugh, and which books you finished and the ones you abandoned immediately. The same goes for how you met your partner online, your dating history, and the health data your watch has collected about how hard you work at the gym.

    Your workout, your data.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    In the imagined year of 2030, you would keep this data on an encrypted server, and different companies would offer apps to help you organise and manage your information. Whenever you wanted to, you could decide to use your data for your own purposes.

    Breaking up is hard to do

    Splitting up big tech companies is not without risks however. An obvious consequence is that those big companies would be less profitable.

    Right now, Google and Meta make (a lot of) money from advertising, and this is only possible because they own so much information about us. If they didn’t, they might end up charging users for the services they provide.

    Interoperability and greater competition may also provide more room for scam app operators. And while more choice about apps may be fine for some, it may be problematic for those who find modern technology challenging enough already.

    For regulators though, the challenge of modern technology seems to be a sense of powerlessness. And if they do decide to take the radical option and break up dominant companies, it could make a big difference to the online world for all of us.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How your online world could change if big tech companies like Google are forced to break up – https://theconversation.com/how-your-online-world-could-change-if-big-tech-companies-like-google-are-forced-to-break-up-240960

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Liam Payne: journalistic ethics are often ignored when celebrities die

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Polly Rippon, University Teacher in Journalism, University of Sheffield

    When someone famous dies, particularly if they are young or it was unexpected, it is natural for their fans to want to know what happened. But, as the reporting on the tragic death of singer Liam Payne shows, the media does not always handle this appropriately or ethically.

    The singer, 31, fell to his death from the third floor of a hotel in Buenos Aires while under the influence of “drugs or alcohol”, local police said. LA-based celebrity news website TMZ initially reported the story alongside graphic images of Payne’s body.

    After a backlash, TMZ removed the photos, but executive editor Michael Babock defended publication, claiming the site was “trying to confirm reports Liam had died before police had established his identity”.

    Other mainstream outlets published transcripts or recordings of a 911 call made to police shortly before Payne was found, and an Argentinian newspaper published images of Payne’s hotel room which included images of drugs paraphernalia.

    This is certainly not the first time the media, and TMZ in particular, has come under fire for insensitive or harmful reporting of celebrity deaths. When basketball great Kobe Bryant died in a helicopter crash in January 2020, TMZ shared the news before police were able to notify his family. Bryant’s widow later testified that she learned of her husband and daughter’s deaths through social media. This breaches the UK’s journalism codes of practice.

    In their quest to get a scoop, what precautions and sensitivities do journalists have to respect when it comes to reporting sudden and tragic deaths?

    Media guidelines and ethics

    The ethical standards and guidelines vary from country to country. In the UK,
    these are set out by the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) and independent press monitor Impress for print media, and by Ofcom for broadcasters.

    An Ipso clause around intrusion into grief and shock says journalists should make enquiries with “sympathy and discretion” and publication should be handled “sensitively”.

    Ofcom has similar guidelines for broadcasters. The section on privacy states: “When people are caught up in events which are covered by the news they still have a right to privacy.”

    This can be infringed if “warranted”, says Ofcom, for example if it is in the public interest. This could include revealing or detecting crime, protecting public health or safety, exposing misleading claims or disclosing incompetence. But a tragic death, even of a high profile person, is unlikely to meet this standard.

    Broadcasters should not interview or film people who have experienced a personal tragedy unless it is “warranted” or they have given consent. And journalists are advised not to “reveal the identity of someone who has died unless it is clear that the next of kin have been informed”.

    Impress, which regulates more independent journalism, has released a statement condemning the reporting of Payne’s death.

    It said: “The defence of publishing in the public interest does not give outlets carte blanche to report the most intimate details of a celebrity’s life, or their death.”

    It is important to state at this stage that what happened prior to Payne’s tragic death and his intentions at the time are unknown. It is the job of the coroner to investigate and come to a conclusion at his inquest.

    The effect of reporting on tragedy

    Beyond accuracy and respect for the victim of a tragedy and their family, there are wider concerns that journalists should take into account.

    Research conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) has shown irresponsible media reporting of celebrity deaths, particularly suicides, can increase suicide rates.

    One study examining patterns of suicide and media coverage found that in the five months following comic Robin Williams’ death in 2014, there were 1,841 more deaths from suicide in the USA compared to the same period the previous year – a 9.85% rise.

    The WHO’s international guidelines for reporting suicide urge the media to avoid sensationalism. Journalists should not provide details about methods, and should include information about mental health resources in stories.

    Analysis of over 100 academic studies found repeated coverage and high-profile news stories were most strongly associated with copycat behaviour.

    The WHO states: “Such stories can inadvertently function as celebrity endorsements of suicidal behaviour and it is known that celebrity endorsements can have an impact on behaviour of the public.”

    Sensitive reporting can reduce the risk of copycat suicides. Providing context in relation to mental health challenges and offering resources for support is vital.

    In the UK, guidelines were first drawn up by the Samaritans charity in 1994 to improve reporting on suicide and prevent copycat attempts. These are taught to journalism students on courses accredited by the National Council for the Training of Journalists.

    Guidance includes avoiding “dramatic” headlines, emotive or sensational pictures or video footage and excessive amounts of coverage. Not speculating about the trigger or cause is urged, because it can oversimplify the issue.

    “Coverage that reflects the wider issues around suicide, including that it is preventable, can help reduce the risk of suicidal behaviour”, the guidelines state. “Include clear and direct references to resources and support organisations.”

    Making a change

    Despite all of these guidelines, many media outlets flout them in the race for clicks. It is heartening that there has been so much outrage at the publication of the images of Payne, but some members of the public still seem to have an insatiable appetite for it. Nothing, it seems, is off limits.

    We need to take collective responsibility. Journalists and editors should reacquaint themselves with responsible reporting guidelines and put themselves in the bereaved family’s shoes. Members of the public can also do their bit by not clicking on or sharing this kind of material, so editorial priorities change.

    Ultimately, our thoughts must be with Payne and his loved ones. A death so young is a real tragedy and those who loved him will be affected for the rest of their lives.

    If you’re struggling with suicidal thoughts, the following services can provide you with support:
    In the UK and Ireland – call Samaritans UK at 116 123.
    In the US – call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-TALK (8255) or IMAlive at 1-800-784-2433.
    In Australia – call Lifeline Australia at 13 11 14.
    In other countries – visit IASP or Suicide.org to find a helpline in your country.

    Polly Rippon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Liam Payne: journalistic ethics are often ignored when celebrities die – https://theconversation.com/liam-payne-journalistic-ethics-are-often-ignored-when-celebrities-die-241631

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –