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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: No country still uses an electoral college − except the US

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joshua Holzer, Associate Professor of Political Science, Westminster College

    Every four years, Congress gathers to count electoral votes. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

    The United States is the only democracy in the world where a presidential candidate can get the most popular votes and still lose the election. Thanks to the Electoral College, that has happened five times in the country’s history. The most recent examples are from 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the Electoral College after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, and 2016, when Hillary Clinton got more votes nationwide than Donald Trump but lost in the Electoral College.

    The Founding Fathers did not invent the idea of an electoral college. Rather, they borrowed the concept from Europe, where it had been used to pick emperors for hundreds of years.

    As a scholar of presidential democracies around the world, I have studied how countries have used electoral colleges. None have been satisfied with the results. And except for the U.S., all have found other ways to choose their leaders.

    The Holy Roman Empire had seven electors: Three were members of the Catholic Church and four were significant members of the nobility. This image depicts, from left, the archbishop of Cologne, the archbishop of Mainz, the archbishop of Trier, the count palatine of the Rhine, the duke of Saxony, the margrave of Brandenburg and the king of Bohemia.
    Codex Balduini Trevirorum, c. 1340, Landeshauptarchiv Koblenz via Wikimedia Commons

    The origins of the US Electoral College

    The Holy Roman Empire was a loose confederation of territories that existed in central Europe from 962 to 1806. The emperor was not chosen by heredity, like most other monarchies. Instead, emperors were chosen by electors, who represented both secular and religious interests.

    As of 1356, there were seven electors: Four were hereditary nobles and three were chosen by the Catholic Church. By 1803, the total number of electors had increased to 10. Three years later, the empire fell.

    When the Founding Fathers were drafting the U.S. Constitution in 1787, the initial draft proposal called for the “National Executive,” which we now call the president, to be elected by the “National Legislature,” which we now call Congress. However, Virginia delegate George Mason viewed “making the Executive the mere creature of the Legislature as a violation of the fundamental principle of good Government,” and so the idea was rejected.

    Pennsylvania delegate James Wilson proposed that the president be elected by popular vote. However, many other delegates were adamant that there be an indirect way of electing the president to provide a buffer against what Thomas Jefferson called “well-meaning, but uninformed people.” Mason, for instance, suggested that allowing voters to pick the president would be akin to “refer(ring) a trial of colours to a blind man.”

    For 21 days, the founders debated how to elect the president, and they held more than 30 separate votes on the topic – more than for any other issue they discussed. Eventually, the complicated solution that they agreed to was an early version of the electoral college system that exists today, a method where neither Congress nor the people directly elect the president. Instead, each state gets a number of electoral votes corresponding to the number of members of the U.S. House and Senate it is apportioned. When the states’ electoral votes are tallied, the candidate with the majority wins.

    James Madison, who was not fond of the Holy Roman Empire’s use of an electoral college, later recalled that the final decision on how to elect a U.S. president “was produced by fatigue and impatience.”

    After just two elections, in 1796 and 1800, problems with this system had become obvious. Chief among them was that electoral votes were cast only for president. The person who got the most electoral votes became president, and the person who came in second place – usually their leading opponent – became vice president. The current process of electing the president and vice president on a single ticket but with separate electoral votes was adopted in 1804 with the passage of the 12th Amendment.

    Some other questions about how the Electoral College system should work were clarified by federal laws through the years, including in 1887 and 1948.

    After the 2020 presidential election exposed additional flaws with the system, Congress further tweaked the process by passing legislation that sought to clarify how electoral votes are counted.

    James Madison disliked the idea of an electoral college.
    Chester Harding, via National Portrait Gallery

    Other electoral colleges

    After the the U.S. Constitution went into effect, the idea of using an electoral college to indirectly elect a president spread to other republics.

    For example, in the Americas, Colombia adopted an electoral college in 1821. Chile adopted one in 1828. Argentina adopted one in 1853.

    In Europe, Finland adopted an electoral college to elect its president in 1925, and France adopted an electoral college in 1958.

    Over time, however, these countries changed their minds. All of them abandoned their electoral colleges and switched to directly electing their presidents by votes of the people. Colombia did so in 1910, Chile in 1925, France in 1965, Finland in 1994, and Argentina in 1995.

    The U.S. is the only democratic presidential system left that still uses an electoral college.

    A ‘popular’ alternative?

    There is an effort underway in the U.S. to replace the Electoral College. It may not even require amending the Constitution.

    The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, currently agreed to by 17 U.S. states, including small states such as Delaware and big ones such as California, as well as the District of Columbia, is an agreement to award all of their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate gets the most votes nationwide. It would take effect once enough states sign on that they would represent the 270-vote majority of electoral votes. The current list reaches 209 electoral votes.

    A key problem with the interstate compact is that in races with more than two candidates, it could lead to situations where the winner of the election did not get a majority of the popular vote, but rather more than half of all voters chose someone else.

    When Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Finland and France got rid of their electoral colleges, they did not replace them with a direct popular vote in which the person with the most votes wins. Instead, they all adopted a version of runoff voting. In those systems, winners are declared only when they receive support from more than half of those who cast ballots.

    Notably, neither the U.S. Electoral College nor the interstate compact that seeks to replace it are systems that ensure that presidents are supported by a majority of voters.

    Editor’s note: This story includes material from a story published on May 20, 2020.

    Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No country still uses an electoral college − except the US – https://theconversation.com/no-country-still-uses-an-electoral-college-except-the-us-240281

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is a communist, and what do communists believe?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Aminda Smith, Associate Professor of History, Michigan State University

    Seeking social change often requires collective action. champc/iStock / Getty Images Plus

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.

    What is a communist? – Artie, age 10, Astoria, New York

    Simply put, a communist is someone who supports communism. I study the history of communism, which is a political and economic view.

    Communism has long been controversial, and in the U.S. today, reputable sources disagree about it. Some experts argue that communist views are well supported by historical evidence about the way societies have developed over time. Others suggest that history has shown communism not to work.

    Many of those appraisals are based on examples of people who tried to establish communism. Communists have launched revolutions in many places including Russia and China. In five countries – China, North Korea, Laos, Cuba and Vietnam – communist parties control the current governments. The economic and political systems in those countries are not fully communist, but some might be working to transition from capitalism to communism.

    In part because the U.S. has difficult relationships with these countries, many Americans have negative views of communists and communism. To evaluate those countries and to decide your own opinions about communism in general, it is important to first be clear about what the principles of communism are.

    Communists believe that people should share wealth so that no one is too poor, no one is too rich, and everyone has enough to survive and have a good life.

    A communist might be a member of a Communist party, which is a political party, or a member of a group of people who want to play a role in government.

    The opening of the 2014 convention of the Communist Party of the United States of America.

    In communism, people work together to produce and distribute the things they need to live, such as food, clothing and entertainment. That does not mean that everything is shared at all times.

    In a communist society, individuals might still live in their own homes and have their own food, clothing and personal items such as televisions and cellphones. However, the places where these items were produced, such as factories and farms, would be owned by everyone.

    Similarly, a person might still create artistic products such as works of literature or craftsmanship on their own. The goal would not be to make money, though, but instead to share for everyone to enjoy.

    Communists support some form of collective ownership. Ownership by everyone would ensure that all members of society have equal rights to the products from the factories and farms because they would all be part owners of the enterprises.

    In such a society, everyone would also have equal political rights and would participate in governance together. Theoretically, communism should entail some form of democracy.

    What is Marxism?

    German philosopher Karl Marx.
    John Jabez Edwin Mayal via Wikimedia Commons

    Throughout history, there have been many different views on what communism is, how it should be organized and how it might be achieved. The most famous theories about communism are probably the ones that were developed by a German philosopher named Karl Marx. His ideas are often called Marxism.

    Marx studied history and observed that the way people produced goods and services was closely related to who held power. For example, in farming societies, those who owned the land had more power than those who did not.

    Marx also noticed that people with less power had often risen up, usually violently, to overthrow the powerful people. He called this concept class struggle. He believed this process was how societies developed from one system of government and economy to another. He claimed that class struggle led societies through a progression toward greater efficiency in the production of goods and services, higher levels of technology and wider distribution of social and political power.

    When Marx was alive in the 1800s, an economic and political system called capitalism had developed in many countries. In capitalist societies, the economy centered on factories. Factory owners had significant political and economic influence.

    Marx observed that in countries such as Germany, England and the United States, factory owners hired laborers who worked long hours producing goods such as shirts or tables. While the factory owners sold these products at high prices, they paid the workers very little. As a result, the factory owners became richer, while many workers struggled to afford the goods they produced or even to provide food for their families.

    Marx believed that this inequality would eventually lead to a worker uprising. During their revolution, Marx predicted, the workers would seize control of the factories, begin running them more fairly, and this would lead to a new political system, known as socialism.

    Where does socialism fit in?

    A campaign poster from 1976, spotlighting the candidates from the Communist Party of the United States of America.
    Library of Congress

    Of course, if the workers staged a revolution, the factory owners would fight back. Marx thought that, immediately after the revolution, the workers would first need to create a strong government to prevent the owners from reestablishing capitalism. During that phase, which Marx called socialism, the workers would run the government while they continued moving away from capitalism and trying to create a more equal society.

    Marx thought people would eventually see that socialism was much better than capitalism because socialism would end exploitation while still allowing a society to continue moving toward better economic and political practices, but without inequality. Once that happened, a government would no longer be necessary.

    The society would become communist. There would still be governance, but not a government that was separated from the people. Rather, in a communist society, the people would govern together, and everyone would do some of the work and receive what they needed.

    There are Communist parties in many places, and many are currently working to move their countries toward communism. At this time, no country has yet made the transition to full communism, but many people still hope that transition will happen somewhere, sometime. Those people are communists. Communists are optimistic that humans can one day create a more fair and equal society.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Aminda Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a communist, and what do communists believe? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-communist-and-what-do-communists-believe-234255

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A devastating hurricane doesn’t dramatically change how people vote – but in a close election, it can matter

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Boris Heersink, Associate Professor of Political Science, Fordham University

    Residents walk on a damaged street in Sarasota, Fla., on Oct. 10, 2024. Eva Marie Uzcategui for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    North Carolina and Florida are changing administrative rules and, in some cases, issuing emergency funding that is intended to make it easier for people in areas damaged by Hurricanes Helene and Milton to vote.

    The recovery in both states is expected to extend far beyond the November 2024 election period. The majority of the people in the affected communities in North Carolina and Florida voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in 2020, making some election analysts wonder if some Trump supporters will be able to cast their ballots.

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Boris Heersink, a scholar of voters’ behavior after a natural disaster, to better understand if and how the recent hurricanes could shift the results of the 2024 presidential election.

    How can hurricanes create complications ahead of an election?

    A massive hurricane disrupts people’s lives in many important ways, including affecting people’s personal safety and where they can live. Ahead of an election, there are a lot of practical limitations about how an election can be executed – like if a person can still receive mail-in ballots at home or elsewhere, or if it is possible to still vote in person at their polling location if that building was destroyed or damaged.

    Another issue is whether people who have just lived through a natural disaster and will likely be dealing with the aftermath for weeks to come are focused on politics right now. Some might sit out the election because they simply have more important things to worry about.

    Beyond practical concerns, how else can a natural disaster influence an election?

    The other side of the equation, which is what political scientists like myself are mostly focusing on, is whether people take the fact that a natural disaster happened into consideration when they vote.

    Two scholars, Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels, have argued that sometimes voters are not great at figuring out how to incorporate bad things that happened to them into a voting position. In some cases, it is entirely fair to hold an elected official responsible for bad outcomes that affect people’s lives. But at other moments, bad things can happen to us without that being the fault of an incumbent president or governor. And voters should ideally be able to balance out these different types of bad things – those it is fair to punish elected officials for, and those for which it isn’t fair to hold them responsible.

    After all, a devastating hurricane is terrible, but it is not Kamala Harris’ fault that it happened. But Achen and Bartels argue that voters frequently still punish elected officials for random bad events like this.

    Their most famous example is the consequences of a series of shark attacks off the New Jersey coast in the summer of 1916. As a result of those attacks, the New Jersey tourism industry saw a major decline. While these findings are still being debated, Achen and Bartels argue that Jersey shore voters subsequently voted against Woodrow Wilson in the 1916 presidential election at a higher rate than they would have had the shark attacks not happened. They argue that voters did this even though Wilson had no involvement in the shark attacks.

    Kamala Harris visits a Hurricane Helene donation drop-off site for emergency supplies in Charlotte, N.C., on Oct. 5, 2024.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    How else do voters consider bad events when they vote?

    Scholars like John Gasper and Andrew Reeves argue that voters mostly care whether elected officials respond appropriately to a disaster. So, if the president does a good job reacting, voters do not actually punish them at all in the next election. However, voters can punish elected officials if they feel like the response is not correct.

    The fact that Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana in 2005 was not the fault of then-President George W. Bush. But the perceived slowness of the government response is something a voter could have held him responsible for.

    How do voters’ political affiliations affect where and how they lay the blame?

    Colleagues and I have shown that how people interpret the combination of a disaster and the government response is likely colored by their own partisanship.

    We looked at both the effects of Superstorm Sandy on the 2012 presidential election and natural disasters’ impact on elections more broadly from 1972 through 2004. One core finding is that when presidents reject state officials’ disaster declaration requests, they lose votes in affected counties – but only if those counties were already more supportive of the opposite party.

    If there is a strong positive government response, the incumbent president or their party can actually gain votes or lose voters affected by a disaster. So, Republicans affected by the hurricanes could become more inclined to vote against Harris if they feel like they are not getting the help they need. But it could also help Harris if affected Democrats feel like they are getting enough aid.

    The major takeaway is that if the government responds really effectively to a natural disaster or other emergency, there is not a huge electoral penalty – and there could even be a small reward.

    That is not irrelevant in a close election. If Republicans in affected areas in North Carolina feel the government response has been poor and it inspires them to turn out in higher numbers to punish Harris, that could matter. But if they feel like the response has been adequate, research suggests either no real effect on their support for Harris – or possibly even an increase in Harris voters.

    Donald Trump speaks with owners of a furniture store that was damaged during Hurricane Helene on Sept. 30, 2024, in Valdosta, Ga.
    Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    How much influence can a politician have on people assessing a government response?

    Scholars mostly assume that people affected can tell whether the government response was good or not. Trump and other Republicans are falsely saying that the response is slow and falsely claiming that Federal Emergency Management Agency money is being spent on immigrants who are not living in the country legally. There does not appear to be a slow government response to the hurricane in North Carolina, and there’s no evidence the response is insufficient in Florida, either.

    So, the question now is whether voters affected by these hurricanes will respond based on their actual lived experiences, or how they are told they are living their experience.

    Boris Heersink receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation.

    – ref. A devastating hurricane doesn’t dramatically change how people vote – but in a close election, it can matter – https://theconversation.com/a-devastating-hurricane-doesnt-dramatically-change-how-people-vote-but-in-a-close-election-it-can-matter-241179

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What does Springfield, Illinois, in 1908 tell us about Springfield, Ohio, in 2024?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joseph Patrick Kelly, Professor of Literature and Director of Irish and Irish American Studies, College of Charleston

    Supporters gather at a campaign rally for Donald Trump in Butler, Pa., on Oct. 5, 2024. Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

    Lying about Black people is nothing new in political campaigning.

    Despite the thorough debunking of false rumors that Haitian immigrants were eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, former President Donald Trump and his GOP allies insist on repeating the lies.

    “If I have to create stories,” admitted JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, “that’s what I’m going to do.”

    While many political observers believe that these lies have, as The New York Times columnist Lydia Polgreen described, finally “crossed a truly unacceptable line,” in fact, white politicians have told brazen, fearmongering, racist lies about Black people for over the past 100 years.

    One of the more notorious lies occurred in 1908 in another Springfield, this one in Illinois. As a historian who studies the impact of racism on democracy, it’s my belief that what happened there and in other cities helps to clarify what Trump and Vance are trying to do in Springfield, Ohio, today.

    Lying when everyone knows you’re lying seems to be the point.

    New target, old message

    Springfield, Illinois, Abraham Lincoln’s home town, was, in 1908, a working-class city of just under 50,000 people – about the same size as its modern counterpart in Ohio.

    Because of the city’s manufacturing industries, Springfield was also an attractive place to live and work for Black men and women escaping the social oppression of the Deep South.

    The Black population of Springfield had been growing by about 4% annually, and by 1908, roughly 2,500 Black people were living there to work in the city’s manufacturing plants. As the wealth of some Black families rose, so too did racist fears among whites that Black migrants were taking their jobs.

    Rumors spread through false newspaper reports among white residents that a Black man had raped a white woman.

    As the story went, a Black man broke through the screen door of a modest house in a white neighborhood. He supposedly dragged a 21-year-old white woman by her throat into the backyard, where he raped her. Or so the woman said.

    A couple of weeks after the incident, the woman admitted she lied. There was no Black man. There was no rape. But by then, telling the truth was too late. The rumor had triggered a wave of anti-Black violence.

    William English Walling, a white, liberal journalist from Kentucky, reported that Springfield’s white folks launched “deadly assaults on every negro they could lay their hands on, to sack and plunder their houses and stores, and to burn and murder.”

    For two days, the violence raged, while white “prosperous businessmen looked on” in complicit approval, Walling wrote. Several blocks in Black neighborhoods were burned, and at least eight Black men were killed.

    One of the men killed was William K. Donnegan. The 84-year-old died after his white attackers slit his throat and then hanged him with a clothesline from a tree near his home.

    As a dozen different rioters told Walling: “Why, the n—–s came to think they were as good as we are!”

    Telling the truth about racist tropes

    At the turn of the 19th century, racial tensions were most often expressed in sexual terms – Black men having sex with white women.

    That sexual anxiety was part of what cultural historians call a “master narrative,” a symbolic story that dramatizes white nationalism and the belief that citizenship and its benefits were preserved for one racial group at the expense of all others.

    One of the first to debunk this rape fantasy was Ida B. Wells, the Black editor and owner of the weekly “Memphis Free Press.”

    In 1892, a white mob lynched one of her good friends, Thomas Moss, and two others associated with his cooperative Peoples’ Grocery store. The Appeal Avalanche, a white Memphis newspaper, wrote that the lynching “was done decently and in order.”

    Ida B. Wells was among the NAACP’s founders.
    Library of Congress

    In her May 21, 1892, editorial about Moss’ death, Wells told a different story about “the same old racket – the new alarm about raping a white woman.”

    Wells explained that she worried that people who lived outside of the Deep South might believe the lies about Black people.

    “Nobody in this section of the country,” she wrote, not even the demagogues spreading rumors, “believe the old thread bare lie that Negro men rape white women.”

    Political fearmongering

    What happened in Wilmington, North Carolina, in 1898 was based on a deliberate, cynical election strategy of lies.

    At the turn of the 20th century, North Carolina’s disaffected, poor working-class white Populists joined forces with Black Republicans to form what were known as the Fusionists.

    In Wilmington, then the largest city in North Carolina, the Fusionists were able to vote out the white-nationalist Democratic Party in the early 1890s and became a symbol of hope for a democratic South and racial equality.

    They also became a target for Democrats seeking to regain power and restore white nationalism.

    A political cartoon from the Raleigh News & Observer, Aug. 13, 1898.
    North Carolina Collection, UNC Chapel Hill

    The spark came in the summer of 1898 when Rebecca Felton, the wife of a Georgia congressman and a leading women’s rights advocate, gave an address to Georgia’s Agricultural Society on Aug. 11 that sought to protect the virtue of white women.

    “If it needs lynching,” she said, “to protect a woman’s dearest possession from the ravening of beasts – then I say lynch; a thousand times a week if necessary.”

    In response, Alexander Manly, the Black editor of The Daily Record, in Wilmington, followed the lead of Ida B. Wells and attacked the myths of Black men. Manly pointed out in his August 1898 editorial that poor white women “are not any more particular in the matter of clandestine meetings with colored men than are the white men with colored women.”

    Democrats bent on stoking racial fears circulated Manly’s editorial throughout North Carolina before the November 1898 elections, decrying the “Outrageous Attack on White Women!” by “the scurrilous negro editor.”

    If that wasn’t enough to stir up North Carolina Democrats, party officials sent the Red Shirts, their white nationalist militia, to Wilmington to overthrow the city’s biracial government, install all white officials and restore white rule.

    To that end, a white mob destroyed Manly’s newspaper office, chased him and other Black leaders into exile, rampaged through Black neighborhoods and killed an untold number of Black men.

    It was a white nationalist coup d’etat.

    The great white protector

    In his modern-day attempt to divide working-class white people from working-class Black people, Vance has urged his supporters to ignore “the crybabies” in the mainstream media.

    “Keep the cat memes flowing!” he posted on X.

    An estimated 67 million people watched the U.S. presidential debate on ABC and heard Trump angrily proclaim: “They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating … the pets of the people that live there.”

    Once again, the old narrative is resurrected.

    Joseph Kelly is not affiliated with any political party. In the past, he has been a volunteer with the Charleston County (SC) Democratic Party.

    – ref. What does Springfield, Illinois, in 1908 tell us about Springfield, Ohio, in 2024? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-springfield-illinois-in-1908-tell-us-about-springfield-ohio-in-2024-239074

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From Swift to Springsteen to Al Jolson, candidates keep trying to use celebrities to change voters’ songs

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matt Harris, Associate Professor of Political Science, Park University

    It’s 2016 all over again. And 2020, for that matter. Democrats are staring at what looks to be another coin flip election between their party’s nominee and Donald Trump.

    In an election that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a handful of states, every voter matters – no matter how you reach them. With that in mind, Democrats are communicating not just on matters of policy, but matters of pop culture.

    Specifically, Democrats are embracing football and Taylor Swift. The Harris-Walz campaign trotted out endorsements from 15 Pro Football Hall of Famers and sells Swiftie-style friendship bracelets on its campaign website, among other overtures. Swift herself has endorsed Kamala Harris.

    Tim Walz cited his experience as a football coach and mentioned Swift in the vice presidential debate.

    Democratic challenger and former NFLer Colin Allred, who is running to unseat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, has put out ads in which he appears moments from taking to the gridiron.

    But how much does pop culture campaigning, if you will, matter? Does trying to link a campaign to a sport, or a culture, or a style of music actually influence elections? Looking to five different election campaigns in the past can give a sense of the effects, or lack thereof, of such campaigning.

    An ad for Texas Democrat Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player, stresses his football past in his bid to unseat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

    Reagan and Springsteen

    Any discussion of the embrace of pop culture by candidates should probably start with Ronald Reagan’s Bruce Springsteen era.

    Reagan, attempting to reach beyond his base, viewed 1984 as a vibes-based election and cited Springsteen as an exemplar of the hope his campaign wished to inspire. Springsteen rejected a request from Reagan’s camp to use his often-misunderstood “Born in the U.S.A.” on the campaign trail. The song’s lyrics describe a down-on-his-luck Vietnam War veteran, but if you don’t listen carefully to the lyrics, the song can sound like a celebration of veterans and being American.

    While Reagan went on to win 49 states in that year’s election, perhaps the biggest long-term impact of his courtship of Springsteen fans was to turn Springsteen from a relatively apolitical performer to a staunch supporter of the Democratic Party.

    In this way, Springsteen’s transformation mirrors that of Taylor Swift, with Marsha Blackburn, the Tennessee Republican senator, serving as her Reagan – the person who pushed the performer into the political arena after years on the sidelines.

    Springsteen and Kerry

    Springsteen’s foray into politics eventually led him to back Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004 with a series of concerts called the “Vote for Change”“ tour.

    Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry greets the crowd with musician Bruce Springsteen while campaigning in Columbus, Ohio, on Oct. 28, 2004.
    AP Photo/Laura Rauch

    Kerry, meanwhile, undertook his own efforts at cultural turf claiming. His attempts to demonstrate his bona fides as a sports-loving everyman went awry at times, when he flubbed the name of “Lambeau Field,” home of Wisconsin’s Green Bay Packers, and referred to a nonexistent Boston Red Sox player, “Manny Ortez.” The ill-fated sports references arguably didn’t hurt his campaign – he won Wisconsin and Massachusetts – but he was ridiculed for a photo-op hunting trip late in the campaign and went on to lose rural Midwestern voters decisively – as well as the election.

    Kerry’s dabbling with hunting imagery was perhaps an attempt to dull President George W. Bush’s advantage in perceived strength of leadership, which was in part burnished by his adoption of a cowboy persona.

    Harding, Jolson and the Cubs

    While Reagan’s attempt to woo 1980s rock fans is one of the best-known attempts to campaign on a mantra of popular culture, it was far from the first.

    Sen. Warren Harding’s 1920 front porch campaign for president was given a jolt of enthusiasm by a visit from singer and actor Al Jolson. Harding was also visited in his hometown, Marion, Ohio, by other actors and celebrities and the Chicago Cubs.

    Harding’s strategy probably better serves as a template for things to come than a decisive move in the 1920 election: His victory with over 60% of the popular vote suggests no celebrity could have saved Democrat James Cox.

    Bill Clinton and MTV

    As the Harris-Walz campaign tries to draw votes from Swift’s young fans, parallels can be drawn to Democratic Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s attempts to embrace youth culture in the 1992 presidential election. Among other appearances, Clinton took questions from young voters on MTV and played saxophone on “The Arsenio Hall Show.”

    While the direct effect of Clinton’s forays into youth culture is difficult to measure, he did surge among young voters relative to Democrat Michael Dukakis’ 1988 presidential campaign.

    In his 1992 campaign, Bill Clinton went on MTV to answer young people’s questions, which included ‘If you had it to do over again, would you inhale?’

    Ford and football

    Any discussion of politicians embracing football culture would be incomplete without a discussion of the American president best at playing football, Gerald Ford, the vice president who became the nation’s 38th president in 1974, when Richard Nixon resigned during the Watergate scandal.

    Ford played center on two national championship teams at the University of Michigan. While not using his football player background to the same level as former football coach Walz did at the Democratic National Convention, Ford did make use of his football credentials on the stump during the 1976 presidential campaign and was joined on the campaign trail by Alabama football coach Paul “Bear” Bryant.

    But the votes of football fans were apparently not enough to keep Ford in the White House for long. He lost the 1976 election to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

    Potentially fruitful pickups

    Will the Harris-Walz strategy of recruiting voters through pop culture be successful? Swift’s fans are largely young, suburban women, and NFL fans are strewn across the political spectrum. There are potentially fruitful pickups in both camps. The candidates certainly think it matters: Walz said he “took football back” from Republicans, a claim disputed by Trump.

    Stressing pop culture credentials can also provide attention to a campaign, regardless of persuasion. Clinton’s pop culture appearances generated coverage beyond the appearances themselves and were cost-effective for a campaign short on funds.

    This type of pop culture campaigning generates coverage, then, even if voters aren’t moved by thinking a candidate shares their love of football or pop music.

    Matt Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From Swift to Springsteen to Al Jolson, candidates keep trying to use celebrities to change voters’ songs – https://theconversation.com/from-swift-to-springsteen-to-al-jolson-candidates-keep-trying-to-use-celebrities-to-change-voters-songs-239381

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As OpenAI attracts billions in new investment, its goal of balancing profit with purpose is getting more challenging to pull off

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alnoor Ebrahim, Thomas Schmidheiny Professor of International Business, Tufts University

    What’s in store for OpenAI is the subject of many anonymously sourced reports. AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

    OpenAI, the artificial intelligence company that developed the popular ChatGPT chatbot and the text-to-art program Dall-E, is at a crossroads. On Oct. 2, 2024, it announced that it had obtained US$6.6 billion in new funding from investors and that the business was worth an estimated $157 billion – making it only the second startup ever to be valued at over $100 billion.

    Unlike other big tech companies, OpenAI is a nonprofit with a for-profit subsidiary that is overseen by a nonprofit board of directors. Since its founding in 2015, OpenAI’s official mission has been “to build artificial general intelligence (AGI) that is safe and benefits all of humanity.”

    By late September 2024, The Associated Press, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and many other media outlets were reporting that OpenAI plans to discard its nonprofit status and become a for-profit tech company managed by investors. These stories have all cited anonymous sources. The New York Times, referencing documents from the recent funding round, reported that unless this change happens within two years, the $6.6 billion in equity would become debt owed to the investors who provided that funding.

    The Conversation U.S. asked Alnoor Ebrahim, a Tufts University management scholar, to explain why OpenAI’s leaders’ reported plans to change its structure would be significant and potentially problematic.

    How have its top executives and board members responded?

    There has been a lot of leadership turmoil at OpenAI. The disagreements boiled over in November 2023, when its board briefly ousted Sam Altman, its CEO. He got his job back in less than a week, and then three board members resigned. The departing directors were advocates for building stronger guardrails and encouraging regulation to protect humanity from potential harms posed by AI.

    Over a dozen senior staff members have quit since then, including several other co-founders and executives responsible for overseeing OpenAI’s safety policies and practices. At least two of them have joined Anthropic, a rival founded by a former OpenAI executive responsible for AI safety. Some of the departing executives say that Altman has pushed the company to launch products prematurely.

    Safety “has taken a backseat to shiny products,” said OpenAI’s former safety team leader Jan Leike, who quit in May 2024.

    Open AI CEO Sam Altman, center, speaks at an event in September 2024.
    Bryan R. Smith/Pool Photo via AP

    Why would OpenAI’s structure change?

    OpenAI’s deep-pocketed investors cannot own shares in the organization under its existing nonprofit governance structure, nor can they get a seat on its board of directors. That’s because OpenAI is incorporated as a nonprofit whose purpose is to benefit society rather than private interests. Until now, all rounds of investments, including a reported total of $13 billion from Microsoft, have been channeled through a for-profit subsidiary that belongs to the nonprofit.

    The current structure allows OpenAI to accept money from private investors in exchange for a future portion of its profits. But those investors do not get a voting seat on the board, and their profits are “capped.” According to information previously made public, OpenAI’s original investors can’t earn more than 100 times the money they provided. The goal of this hybrid governance model is to balance profits with OpenAI’s safety-focused mission.

    Becoming a for-profit enterprise would make it possible for its investors to acquire ownership stakes in OpenAI and no longer have to face a cap on their potential profits. Down the road, OpenAI could also go public and raise capital on the stock market.

    Altman reportedly seeks to personally acquire a 7% equity stake in OpenAI, according to a Bloomberg article that cited unnamed sources.

    That arrangement is not allowed for nonprofit executives, according to BoardSource, an association of nonprofit board members and executives. Instead, the association explains, nonprofits “must reinvest surpluses back into the organization and its tax-exempt purpose.”

    What kind of company might OpenAI become?

    The Washington Post and other media outlets have reported, also citing unnamed sources, that OpenAI might become a “public benefit corporation” – a business that aims to benefit society and earn profits.

    Examples of businesses with this status, known as B Corps., include outdoor clothing and gear company Patagonia and eyewear maker Warby Parker.

    It’s more typical that a for-profit business – not a nonprofit – becomes a benefit corporation, according to the B Lab, a network that sets standards and offers certification for B Corps. It is unusual for a nonprofit to do this because nonprofit governance already requires those groups to benefit society.

    Boards of companies with this legal status are free to consider the interests of society, the environment and people who aren’t its shareholders, but that is not required. The board may still choose to make profits a top priority and can drop its benefit status to satisfy its investors. That is what online craft marketplace Etsy did in 2017, two years after becoming a publicly traded company.

    In my view, any attempt to convert a nonprofit into a public benefit corporation is a clear move away from focusing on the nonprofit’s mission. And there will be a risk that becoming a benefit corporation would just be a ploy to mask a shift toward focusing on revenue growth and investors’ profits.

    Many legal scholars and other experts are predicting that OpenAI will not do away with its hybrid ownership model entirely because of legal restrictions on the placement of nonprofit assets in private hands.

    But I think OpenAI has a possible workaround: It could try to dilute the nonprofit’s control by making it a minority shareholder in a new for-profit structure. This would effectively eliminate the nonprofit board’s power to hold the company accountable. Such a move could lead to an investigation by the office of the relevant state attorney general and potentially by the Internal Revenue Service.

    What could happen if OpenAI turns into a for-profit company?

    The stakes for society are high.

    AI’s potential harms are wide-ranging, and some are already apparent, such as deceptive political campaigns and bias in health care.

    If OpenAI, an industry leader, begins to focus more on earning profits than ensuring AI’s safety, I believe that these dangers could get worse. Geoffrey Hinton, who won the 2024 Nobel Prize in physics for his artificial intelligence research, has cautioned that AI may exacerbate inequality by replacing “lots of mundane jobs.” He believes that there’s a 50% probability “that we’ll have to confront the problem of AI trying to take over” from humanity.

    And even if OpenAI did retain board members for whom safety is a top concern, the only common denominator for the members of its new corporate board would be their obligation to protect the interests of the company’s shareholders, who would expect to earn a profit. While such expectations are common on a for-profit board, they constitute a conflict of interest on a nonprofit board where mission must come first and board members cannot benefit financially from the organization’s work.

    The arrangement would, no doubt, please OpenAI’s investors. But would it be good for society? The purpose of nonprofit control over a for-profit subsidiary is to ensure that profit does not interfere with the nonprofit’s mission. Without guardrails to ensure that the board seeks to limit harm to humanity from AI, there would be little reason for it to prevent the company from maximizing profit, even if its chatbots and other AI products endanger society.

    Regardless of what OpenAI does, most artificial intelligence companies are already for-profit businesses. So, in my view, the only way to manage the potential harms is through better industry standards and regulations that are starting to take shape.

    California’s governor vetoed such a bill in September 2024 on the grounds it would slow innovation – but I believe slowing it down is exactly what is needed, given the dangers AI already poses to society.

    Alnoor Ebrahim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As OpenAI attracts billions in new investment, its goal of balancing profit with purpose is getting more challenging to pull off – https://theconversation.com/as-openai-attracts-billions-in-new-investment-its-goal-of-balancing-profit-with-purpose-is-getting-more-challenging-to-pull-off-240602

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Godzilla at 70: The monster’s warning to humanity is still urgent

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Amanda Kennell, Assistant Professor of East Asian Languages and Cultures, University of Notre Dame

    The monster in the 2023 movie “Godzilla Minus One.” Toho Co. Ltd., CC BY-ND

    The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, the Japan Confederation of A- and H-bomb Sufferers Organizations. Many of these witnesses have spent their lives warning of the dangers of nuclear war – but initially, much of the world didn’t want to hear it.

    “The fates of those who survived the infernos of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were long concealed and neglected,” the Nobel committee noted in its announcement. Local groups of nuclear survivors created Nihon Hidankyo in 1956 to fight back against this erasure.

    Atomic bomb survivor Masao Ito, 82, speaks at the park across from the Atomic Bomb Dome in Hiroshima in May 15, 2023.
    Richard A. Brooks/AFP via Getty Images

    Around the same time that Nihon Hidankyo was formed, Japan produced another warning: a towering monster who topples Tokyo with blasts of irradiated breath. The 1954 film “Godzilla” launched a franchise that has been warning viewers to take better care of the Earth for the past 70 years.

    We study popular Japanese media and business ethics and sustainability, but we found a common interest in Godzilla after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. In our view, these films convey a vital message about Earth’s creeping environmental catastrophe. Few survivors are left to warn humanity about the effects of nuclear weapons, but Godzilla remains eternal.

    Into the atomic age

    By 1954, Japan had survived almost a decade of nuclear exposure. In addition to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Japanese people were affected by a series of U.S. nuclear tests in the Bikini Atoll.

    When the U.S. tested the world’s first hydrogen bomb in 1954, its devastation reached far outside the expected damage zone. Though it was far from the restricted zone, the Lucky Dragon No. 5 Japanese fishing boat and its crew were doused with irradiated ash. All fell ill, and one fisherman died within the year. Their tragedy was widely covered in the Japanese press as it unfolded.

    The Castle Bravo hydrogen bomb test on March 1, 1954, produced an explosion equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT, more than 2.5 times what scientists had expected. It released large quantities of radioactive debris into the atmosphere.

    This event is echoed in a scene at the beginning of “Godzilla” in which helpless Japanese boats are destroyed by an invisible force.

    “Godzilla” is full of deep social debates, complex characters and cutting-edge special effects for its time. Much of the film involves characters discussing their responsibilities – to each other, to society and to the environment.

    This seriousness, like the film itself, was practically buried outside of Japan by an alter ego, 1956’s “Godzilla, King of the Monsters!” American licensors cut the 1954 film apart, removed slow scenes, shot new footage featuring Canadian actor Raymond Burr, spliced it all together and dubbed their creation in English with an action-oriented script they wrote themselves.

    This version was what people outside of Japan knew as “Godzilla” until the Japanese film was released internationally for its 50th anniversary in 2004.

    From radiation to pollution

    While “King of the Monsters!” traveled the world, “Godzilla” spawned dozens of Japanese sequels and spinoffs. Godzilla slowly morphed from a murderous monster into a monstrous defender of humanity in the Japanese films, which was also reflected in the later U.S.-made films.

    In 1971, a new, younger creative team tried to define Godzilla for a new era with “Godzilla vs. Hedorah.” Director Yoshimitsu Banno joined the movie’s crew while he was promoting a recently completed documentary about natural disasters. That experience inspired him to redirect Godzilla from nuclear issues to pollution.

    World War II was fading from public memory. So were the massive Anpo protests of 1959 and 1960, which had mobilized up to one-third of the Japanese people to oppose renewal of the U.S.-Japan security treaty. Participants included housewives concerned by the news that fish caught by the Lucky Dragon No. 5 had been sold in Japanese grocery stores.

    At the same time, pollution was soaring. In 1969, Michiko Ishimure published “Paradise in the Sea of Sorrow: Our Minamata Disease,” a book that’s often viewed as a Japanese counterpart to “Silent Spring,” Rachel Carson’s environmental classic. Ishimure’s poetic descriptions of lives ruined by the Chisso Corp.’s dumping of methyl mercury into the Shiranui Sea awoke many in Japan to their government’s numerous failures to protect the public from industrial pollution.

    The Chisso Corp. released toxic methylmercury into Minamata Bay from 1932 to 1968, poisoning tens of thousands of people who ate local seafood.

    “Godzilla vs. Hedorah” is about Godzilla’s battles against Hedorah, a crash-landed alien that grows to monstrous size by feeding on toxic sludge and other forms of pollution. The film opens with a woman singing jazzily about environmental apocalypse as young people dance with abandon in an underground club.

    This combination of hopelessness and hedonism continues in an uneven film that includes everything from an extended shot of an oil slick-covered kitten to an animated sequence to Godzilla awkwardly levitating itself with its irradiated breath.

    After Godzilla defeats Hedorah at the end of the film, it pulls a handful of toxic sludge out of Hedorah’s torso, gazes at the sludge, then turns to stare at its human spectators – both those onscreen and the film’s audience. The message is clear: Don’t just lazily sing about imminent doom – shape up and do something.

    Official Japanese trailer for ‘Godzilla vs. Hedorah’

    “Godzilla vs. Hedorah” bombed at the box office but became a cult hit over time. Its positioning of Godzilla between Earth and those who would harm it resonates today in two separate Godzilla franchises.

    One line of movies comes from the original Japanese studio that produced “Godzilla.” The other line is produced by U.S. licensors making eco-blockbusters that merge the environmentalism of “Godzilla” with the spectacle of “King of the Monsters.”

    A meltdown of public trust

    The 2011 Fukushima disaster has now become part of the Japanese people’s collective memory. Cleanup and decommissioning of the damaged nuclear plant continues, amid controversies around ongoing releases of radioactive water used to cool the plant. Some residents are allowed to visit their homes but can’t move back there while thousands of workers remove topsoil, branches and other materials to decontaminate these areas.

    Before Fukushima, Japan derived one-third of its electricity from nuclear power. Public attitudes toward nuclear energy hardened after the disaster, especially as investigations showed that regulators had underestimated risks at the site. Although Japan needs to import about 90% of the energy it uses, today over 70% of the public opposes nuclear power.

    The first Japanese “Godzilla” film released after the Fukushima disaster, “Shin Godzilla” (2016), reboots the franchise in a contemporary Japan with a new type of Godzilla, in an eerie echo of the damages of and governmental response to Fukushima’s triple disaster. When the Japanese government is left leaderless and in disarray following initial counterattacks on Godzilla, a Japanese government official teams up with an American special envoy to freeze the newly named Godzilla in its tracks, before a fearful world unleashes its nuclear weapons once again.

    Their success suggests that while national governments have an important role to play in major disasters, successful recovery requires people who are empowered to act as individuals.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Godzilla at 70: The monster’s warning to humanity is still urgent – https://theconversation.com/godzilla-at-70-the-monsters-warning-to-humanity-is-still-urgent-237934

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The return of 90s culture echoes a backlash to feminism that we’ve seen throughout history

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julie Whiteman, Lecturer in Marketing, University of Birmingham

    I came of age in the 1990s and lived through the heavily gendered pop culture of Spice Girls and All Saints, Oasis and Blur, of lads and ladettes outdoing each other in heavy drinking and sexual exploits.

    Now in my 40s, I thought this brash and overtly sexist culture had faded out. It appeared to have been replaced by a socially progressive and inclusive generation focused on body and sex positivity, gender and sexual fluidity. And so I was surprised to see my generation Z research participants romanticise the 1990s as a belle epoque.

    First it was Sex and the City, then lad’s mag Loaded and now Oasis. Popular culture from the 1990s is having a moment in the mid-2020s. The 90s have been a stylistic and cultural influence on youth culture for the best part of a decade, with large amounts of money invested in big-name reboots and reunions.

    I began researching young adults’ sexual politics and their relationship to popular culture back in 2016. It was clear from my observations of the clothing, social media and references back then that the 90s were a major cultural influence. I remember being surprised by the popularity of the TV shows like Friends and musicians including Shaggy, Oasis and Suede from my own youth.

    Every generation has a romanticised nostalgia for the fashion, music and attitudes of the previous. When I was a teenager, my friends and I held a romanticised nostalgia for the music, fashion and sense of freedom we believed characterised the 60s and 70s. This view, however, did not align with my parents’ and their peers’ recollections of that time.



    Read more:
    Sick of reboots? How ‘nostalgia bait’ profits off Millennial and Gen Z’s childhood memories

    What is most interesting here is the apparent contradiction in values. The objectification of women at the heart of 90s pop culture does not gel with what we think of as the sexually open, progressive politics of generation Z. But having studied the intersection of pop culture and gender, I see this current resurgence as part of a misogynistic backlash to feminist progress – something that feminist scholars have highlighted as a typical pattern for years.

    Much of 90s popular culture is inherently misogynistic. Loaded and other now-defunct lads’ mags were infamous for their brutal objectification of women, including advice on how to get women into bed by almost any means. The celebrated lad culture epitomised by the likes of Oasis encouraged “men to be men”, with all the macho aggression and limited emotional range that implied.

    A damning 2012 National Union of Students report on sexual harassment and assault on university campuses made explicit links to the prevalence of lad culture in UK higher education. It argued lad culture at best objectifies and is dismissive of women, and at worst glamorises sexual assault.



    Read more:
    Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted

    Gen Z is widely considered a generation of social activists, having grown up in the shadow of movements like #MeToo and the Women’s March that emerged in protest of the election of Donald Trump as US president. These cultural touchpoints in this generation’s upbringing highlight intersections of sex and power.

    Some young consumers have acknowledged this mismatch, describing Sex and the City as “outdated” and “cringey”. And incoming Loaded editor Danni Levy seems aware of it too, saying the relaunch is necessary because of the “world gone PC mad”.

    Why is 90s culture popular now?

    I argue the resurgence of 90s popular culture is actually part of a backlash against the progressive understandings of gender and sexuality associated with generation Z.

    Research indicates that gen Z men are less likely to support feminism than baby boomers. Young men and boys are increasingly being influenced by figures like self-proclaimed misogynist Andrew Tate, who faces charges of rape and human trafficking among other offences.

    While enjoying 90s television of course doesn’t mean you hold the same misogynistic views as Tate, I believe some popular culture is central to a continuum of backlash against feminist progress.

    To explain this, I suggest turning to feminist scholars – including one of my own 90s favourites, Susan Faludi’s excellent 1992 book Backlash: The undeclared war against women. In this work, Faludi details multiple periods of backlash against women’s liberation dating from 195BC. Each of these is linked to repeated “crises of masculinity”.

    Much feminist writing details how the very notion of masculinity depends on a subordinate femininity. And so, Faludi argues, advances in feminism equal a crisis of masculinity. Progress begets backlash, and popular culture is a key site where this takes place.

    Through my research I work to detail the subtle and nuanced ways this happens. I am currently researching how popular culture interprets and remixes progressive ideas like sex and gender positivity.

    At first glance, songs, films and shows may seem to be supportive of women’s sexual liberation, but on closer inspection they can reinforce traditional ideas of what it is to be a woman, or what it is to be attractive. Katy Perry’s recent music video Woman’s World is a classic example of this. Its lyrical appropriation of feminist messages of empowerment is delivered in an outdated visual style that adheres to the male gaze.

    Perry and her dancers strut around in swimwear costumes adapted to mimic various “masculine” professions. Critiqued for its lack of authenticity, Perry’s video represents a male sexual dreamworld that is inconsistent with the feminist politics it links itself to.

    There is often, in examples like this, a blurring of feminist and anti-feminist ideas – where it seems as though feminism is so commonsense it is no longer necessary, and is therefore neutralised.

    A multitude of literature on female sexual desire has emerged in the last few years. It is wide-ranging and imaginative. And yet, much of 90s popular culture flattens this complexity, painting female desire as only a desire to be desired by men.

    It prioritises male pleasure and advocates for their sexual dominance over women, reverting to understandings of “acceptable” sex as heterosexual, monogamous and male-led. Despite years of feminist progress, popular culture continues to teach us that women are objects of male sexual fantasy.

    Julie Whiteman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The return of 90s culture echoes a backlash to feminism that we’ve seen throughout history – https://theconversation.com/the-return-of-90s-culture-echoes-a-backlash-to-feminism-that-weve-seen-throughout-history-238162

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Mpox anti-vaxx conspiracies target and stigmatise LGBTQ+ people

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen McCarthy, Doctoral Researcher in Criminology and Sociology, York St John University

    According to some conspiracy theorists posting on alternative, uncensored social media networks, Mpox is another “scamdemic”, created by a powerful elite to cull populations and generate profit for “big pharma”. According to these social media users, anyone who takes the Mpox vaccine inevitably faces heart attack and death.

    Other Mpox conspiracies target hate at LGBTQ+ people.

    Through my PhD research into anti-vaccination misinformation, I’ve collected thousands of social media posts, videos, images and links from anti-vaccination Telegram channels, Substack newsletters and Gab groups. Gab Social is a social networking site known for hosting right-wing political content. These platforms are unique in their permissive approach to moderation. Users can post virtually anything they want without restraint.

    According to 2023 research, platforms like Gab have become the home of many “alt-right” content creators who have been de-platformed from mainstream social media channels like Facebook and Instagram. Mpox misinformation is thriving in these online locations.

    Sexuality and stigma

    In the early days of the COVID pandemic, a study identified that misinformation on social media platforms like Facebook, X (formerly known as Twitter) and YouTube frequently blamed specific social groups for infection surges. Now, it’s MPox’s turn.

    One Substack creator, for example, considers gay and bisexual men engaging in “high-risk sexual behaviour” a threat to the heterosexual population. He argues abstinence is the only solution – but only for men who have sex with men.

    As well as accusing gay and bisexual men of having a “perverted lifestyle that goes against nature and God’s laws”, some anti-vaxx content creators stigmatise people with Mpox as a hidden enemy, who could be “teaching in schools and indoctrinating children”.

    One common anti-vaxx conspiracy theory is “vaccine shedding”. This is the idea that vaccinated people can harm the unvaccinated through any kind of contact. One online conspiracy states the Mpox vaccine is particularly prone to shedding. Gay and bisexual men, then, are portrayed as dangerous whether they’re vaccinated or not.

    Mpox is routinely characterised by conspiracy theorists as a virus for immoral people. As a result, some anti-vaxx perspectives are shockingly callous – one commenter claims they wouldn’t care at all if “the gays and communists” died from the Mpox vaccine.

    Misinformation surrounding Mpox and the vaccine is peppered with such homophobic narratives of infection and contamination – and it’s familiar territory. People suffering from HIV and Aids in the 1980s and 1990s were relentlessly stigmatised as a dangerous other.

    While online conspiracy theories present those with Mpox as a menace, in reality, there have only been a small number of mild Mpox cases identified in the UK since 2022. Though the majority of confirmed cases of Mpox in the UK have been in gay and bisexual men – and Mpox can be transmitted through close sexual contact – people can also become infected if they’re exposed to coughing and sneezing, or share clothing, bedding and towels with an infected person.

    Moderation and misinformation

    In August 2024, a new strain of Mpox was identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and some neighbouring countries. An estimated 10 million vaccines are needed to meet demand in affected African nations. In September 2024, the UK government ordered 150,000 doses of an Mpox vaccine to be distributed among gay and bisexual men and healthcare and humanitarian workers who may be exposed.

    Just as many of us might check a reliable, verified medical source to find out more about Mpox, so alternative social media users look to the sources they trust. This commonly includes doctors blowing the whistle on alleged vaccine injury, conspiracy theory “news” sites and prominent right wing figures like Tucker Carlson. People selling alternative remedies and products promising miraculous detox are never far away to profit from vaccine misinformation.

    Users share these sources across Gab groups, comment threads and Telegram channels, layering their own beliefs on top. This generates even more views and shares, which is one of the reasons why social media is such a good incubator for conspiracy theories and misinformation.

    Another reason is the lack of content moderation on alternative social media sites. Substack describes itself as “a place for independent writing”. Users are not supposed to share any content which incites violence, contains sex or nudity, or illegal activity. Telegram takes a similar approach. Gab also draws the line at illegal content, but mainly encourages users to hide content they don’t want to see or ignore it.

    The arguments for or against unrestrained free speech on the internet are complex. But sites like Gab reveal what an unmoderated internet can look like – hate of every variety can find a home here if that’s what the users choose to post. Mpox is just another topic to generate even more shareable content.

    Helen McCarthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Mpox anti-vaxx conspiracies target and stigmatise LGBTQ+ people – https://theconversation.com/how-mpox-anti-vaxx-conspiracies-target-and-stigmatise-lgbtq-people-239981

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Sally Rooney came to be dubbed the ‘voice of a generation’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ellen Wiles, Senior Lecturer in Creative Writing, University of Exeter

    Sally Rooney’s new novel, Intermezzo, is finally here – and nearly everyone I know seems to be reading it. It’s almost like the pre-streaming days, when everyone would settle on the sofa at the same time to watch the new hit TV series. The sense that we were all part of the same unfolding experience of a story was part of the joy.

    Not many authors can achieve that in this era of the digital kaleidoscope, when myriad creative experiences can be accessed at the touch of a button. Rooney’s cult status has led to her being described as the “voice of a generation”. The label generally refers to an author whose work particularly resonates with people in their 20s and 30s. But why have Rooney’s books had this effect? And who were the literary voices of previous generations?

    Logically, of course, the phrase is inaccurate when applied to any single writer. Generations include vastly different cohorts and people from diverse backgrounds, and no authorial voice can actually represent them all. Rooney couldn’t, even if everyone on the planet were reading Intermezzo right now – which they’re not. At least, not quite. And yet, as a phrase used to describe a writer whose work has had a notably greater impact than most others, it is worth interrogating.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    To be the person crowned with this label – to have to embody “the voice of a generation” – must feel simultaneously like an honour and a burden. Rooney herself has outwardly rejected it. In 2018 she told the Guardian: “I certainly never intended to speak for anyone other than myself. Even myself I find it difficult to speak for.”

    And yet she invariably speaks persuasively and cogently in public events about her books: an ability which no doubt stems from her background as a champion debater.

    Rooney speaks about Palestine during the launch of her new novel, Intermezzo.

    This ability also brings a rare clarity to her writing. Rooney has a knack for describing with precision, and also with lyricism, the textural experience of being a young person in the world, particularly an intelligent yet lonely young person. Her characters feel almost as strongly about big ideas as they do about their animal desires.



    Read more:
    How does someone become the ‘voice of a generation’? A brief history of the concept

    It’s a hard time to be young. Rooney understands and engages with the high cost of living, precarious jobs, stark social inequality and the climate crisis in her novels. Yet these ideas and political concerns never subsume the specific human characters, in specific Irish settings, that lie at the heart of each story. These are surely some of the intersecting reasons why her fiction has resonated so widely with the under 30s.

    Intermezzo can be distinguished from Rooney’s previous two novels in its interrogation of intimate relationships that are perceived to be highly unconventional, and exploring how the characters negotiate that social tension. I like to think that’s why it has sparked so much interest – but I may well be biased, since my forthcoming novel, The Unexpected, does the same thing, albeit with a co-parenting angle.

    Voices of generations past

    Looking back a generation, Zadie Smith’s novel White Teeth, published in 2000 when she was in her early 20s, sparked a comparable reading fever, and prompted the same “voice of a generation” label.

    Smith broke new ground back then with the fresh, funny and profound quality of her writing about the multicultural community of north-west London, particularly through her sparkling dialogue. Like Rooney’s fiction, Smith’s addresses pressing political issues, notably relating to race, class and migration, and yet those concerns never overpower the vivid individuality of her characters.

    Like Rooney, Smith is a compelling public speaker, articulating her ideas with directness and wit. Her clear public “voice” surely helped the “voice of a generation” label to adhere. Yet Smith similarly rejected the idea that she had ever sought to represent any generation or group through her fiction. Conversely, she has denied even having a singular “voice” that might be linked to arbitrary aspects of her autobiography. Instead, she describes always having had multiple voices in her head, arguing that good fiction actually stems from a productive self-doubt, combined with a sense of compassion and curiosity about other people and the world.

    Turning the dial back further, into the 20th century, the so-called “voices of a generation” that come to mind are mostly white men. Brett Easton Ellis and J.D. Salinger, for instance, in the US; and Martin Amis and Ian McEwan in the UK.

    It is heartening that fiction is no longer so dominated by male writers, especially when fiction readers remain predominantly female. And over the last two decades, it has been great to witness the championing of more diverse authors in the publishing industry: a shift which has been long overdue.

    Still, as the real world appears to become increasingly divided through social media bubbles and extremist politics, it seems more important than ever to hold onto the vital role of fiction. Not as a loudspeaker for authorial “voices” that are assumed to represent neatly defined groups of people, but as a portal to imagined voices that reveal how unique yet interconnected we all are. Fiction is a force that can draw us together, regardless of our backgrounds, and increase our empathy for one another.

    If a single writer can spark as many people as Rooney has to engage collectively in deep appreciation for their works of fiction, then it seems important to find a shorthand to capture that. If “the voice of a generation” is too exclusive, perhaps “a voice for a generation” is a more nuanced alternative.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Ellen Wiles is the author of the new novel, The Unexpected – out on 21 November 2024 from HQ (HarperCollins).

    – ref. How Sally Rooney came to be dubbed the ‘voice of a generation’ – https://theconversation.com/how-sally-rooney-came-to-be-dubbed-the-voice-of-a-generation-240063

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How does someone become the ‘voice of a generation’? A brief history of the concept

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Kingstone, Senior Lecturer in English Literature, Royal Holloway University of London

    Sally Rooney, author of Normal People and now Intermezzo, keeps being called “the voice of a generation”. And she’s just the latest in a sequence of authors to get this accolade.

    In 1991, Douglas Coupland’s novel Generation X supposedly made him the “voice of” that generation. Looking further back, J.D. Salinger’s first and only novel, Catcher in the Rye (1951), seemed to capture the voice of a generation at the time, and has resonated with successive generations of awkward and disaffected teenagers ever since.

    What’s behind this phenomenon is generational thinking. It seems to be everywhere at the moment, providing the media with easy taglines, spreading cliches and unnecessarily sowing division. But its history goes back far beyond even the baby-boomers.

    In the 19th century, after the radical upheavals of the Enlightenment , the “age of revolutions” and the Industrial Revolution, some people wondered if perhaps they could reject tradition completely. Groups of young artists began to rebel against a model of discipleship that required them to learn from their elders.

    Instead of following the art world’s top-down, paternalistic apprenticeship model, these fraternities and brotherhoods (yes, they were mainly men) declared that were innovating a new dawn in art.

    The Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood, for example, now viewed as quaint, were definitely Victorian radicals, as were the impressionists 25 years later. These tight-knit groups of artists had a strong sense of generational identity, rebelling against their predecessors.

    In one important way, however, they were different from the modern “voice of a generation” figures because these groups also saw themselves as rebelling against their own peers. We now might see them as iconic of their generation, but at the time, they were rejects, though elite ones – bohemian in the original sense. Crucially, they were honest about their oddity. They knew they were unusual, so they didn’t claim to be speaking for everyone.

    This paradox highlights one of the challenges of history: that we’re understandably most captivated by people who were “ahead of their time”, but these people are therefore probably not representative of their time.



    Read more:
    How Sally Rooney came to be dubbed the ‘voice of a generation’

    The origins of generational thinking

    The idea of generations as self-conscious group identities came into being with the trauma and upheaval of the first world war. Over the next couple of decades, writers who had come of age during the war narrated how it had decimated and traumatised their generation.

    Examples include Erich Maria Remarque’s novel All Quiet on the Western Front (1928), R.C. Sherriff’s play Journey’s End (1928) and Vera Brittain’s autobiography, Testament of Youth (1933).

    These stories all express an angry sense of having been “lions led by donkeys”. They envisage an unbridgeable divide between their own front-line generation, sacrificing its youth, and an older generation of complacent army commanders.

    They also trace a second divide between themselves and the slighter younger generation who came of age after the war’s end and didn’t want to think about it. Brittain poignantly describes how this new fresh-faced generation experienced her grief as passé.

    These first world war writers did consciously speak as the voice of a specific “lost generation”. But like any such label, this also obscures a more complex reality.

    Not all first world war soldiers were in the first flush of youth like Wilfred Owen, Robert Graves, Remarque and Sherriff. In fact, men were recruited up to the age of 41 in Britain, 43 in Russia, 48 in France and 50 in Austria-Hungary.

    As a result, between 3 million and 4 million women were widowed by the war, and between 6 million and 8 million children were left fatherless. On this reckoning, there is probably more than one first world war generation.

    This complexity highlights one of the tricky things about the generations concept. It refers both to relationships within families (parents and children) and to commonalities beyond the family, among contemporaries across society. Sometimes these two dimensions align neatly, as in the “lost generation”, but sometimes they don’t, like for those older soldiers who don’t fit inside that label.

    Why generational labels matter

    My research has shown that generational ideas are real and do matter – but need to be handled with care.

    Generation talk all too often slips into generalisation, which can then be used to sow division. The word “generationalism” has been coined by researchers to highlight this issue.

    To counteract this, a network of researchers and third sector colleagues, led by myself and sociologist Jennie Bristow, have worked together to produce a guide entitled Talking About Generations: 5 Questions to Ask Yourself, which encourages people working with the concept of generation to pause and check their motivations and meaning before using the term.

    Labels like “the voice of a generation” always depend on speculating about what other people are thinking and feeling. This risks flattening and homogenising generational experience – not all millennials are Sally Rooneys, after all.

    Rooney herself has said in an interview: “I certainly never intended to speak for anyone other than myself.” Any “voice of a generation” needs, in practice, to be plural “voices”.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Helen Kingstone has received funding from Wellcome: it funded the research behind the guide for ‘Talking about Generations’.

    – ref. How does someone become the ‘voice of a generation’? A brief history of the concept – https://theconversation.com/how-does-someone-become-the-voice-of-a-generation-a-brief-history-of-the-concept-240495

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When AI plays favourites: How algorithmic bias shapes the hiring process

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mehnaz Rafi, PhD Candidate, Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary

    Given the rapid integration of AI into human resource management across many organizations, it’s important to raise awareness about the complex ethical challenges it presents. (Shutterstock)

    A public interest group filed a U.S. federal complaint against artificial intelligence hiring tool, HireVue, in 2019 for deceptive hiring practices. The software, which has been adopted by hundreds of companies, favoured certain facial expressions, speaking styles and tones of voice, disproportionately disadvantaging minority candidates.

    The Electronic Privacy Information Center argued HireVue’s results were “biased, unprovable and not replicable.” Though the company has since stopped using facial recognition, concerns remain about biases in other biometric data, such as speech patterns.

    Similarly, Amazon stopped using its AI recruitment tool, as reported in 2018, after discovering it was biased against women. The algorithm, trained on male-dominated resumes submitted over 10 years, favoured male candidates by downgrading applications that included the word “women’s” and penalizing graduates of women’s colleges. Engineers tried to address these biases, but could not guarantee neutrality, leading to the project’s cancellation.

    These examples highlight a growing concern in recruitment and selection: while some companies are using AI to remove human bias from hiring, it can often reinforce and amplify existing inequalities. Given the rapid integration of AI into human resource management across many organizations, it’s important to raise awareness about the complex ethical challenges it presents.

    Ways AI can create bias

    As companies increasingly rely on algorithms to make critical hiring decisions, it’s crucial to be aware of the following ways AI can create bias in hiring:

    1. Bias in training data. AI systems rely on large datasets — referred to as training data — to learn patterns and make decisions, but their accuracy and fairness are only as good as the data they are trained on. If this data contains historical hiring biases that favour specific demographics, the AI will adopt and reproduce those same biases. Amazon’s AI tool, for example, was trained on resumes from a male-dominated industry, which led to gender bias.

    2. Flawed data sampling. Flawed data sampling occurs when the dataset used to train an algorithm is not representative of the broader population it’s meant to serve. In the context of hiring, this can happen if training data over-represents certain groups —typically white men — while under-representing marginalized candidates.

    As a result, the AI may learn to favour the characteristics and experiences of the over-represented group while penalizing or overlooking those from underrepresented groups. For example, facial analysis technologies have shown to have higher error rates for racialized individuals, particularly racialized women, because they are underrepresented in the data used to train these systems.



    Read more:
    Artificial intelligence can discriminate on the basis of race and gender, and also age

    3. Bias in feature selection. When designing AI systems, developers choose certain features, attributes or characteristics to be prioritized or weighed more heavily when the AI is making decisions. But these selected features can lead to unfair, biased outcomes and perpetuate pre-existing inequalities.

    For example, AI might disproportionately value graduates from prestigious universities, which have historically been attended by people from privileged backgrounds. Or, it might prioritize work experiences that are more common among certain demographics.

    This problem is compounded when the features selected are proxies for protected characteristics, such as zip code, which can be strongly related to race and socioeconomic status due to historical housing segregation.

    Bias in hiring algorithms raises serious ethical concerns and demands greater attention toward the mindful, responsible and inclusive use of AI.
    (Shutterstock)

    4. Lack of transparency. Many AI systems function as “black boxes,” meaning their decision-making processes are opaque. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for organizations to identify where bias might exist and how it affects hiring decisions.

    Without insight into how an AI tool makes decisions, it’s difficult to correct biased outcomes or ensure fairness. Both Amazon and HireVue faced this issue; users and developers struggled to understand how the systems assessed candidates and why certain groups were excluded.

    5. Lack of human oversight. While AI plays an important role in many decision-making processes, it should augment, rather than replace, human judgment. Over-reliance on AI without adequate human oversight can lead to unchecked biases. This problem is exacerbated when hiring professionals trust AI more than their own judgment, believing in the technology’s infallibility.

    Overcoming algorithmic bias in hiring

    To mitigate these issues, companies must adopt strategies that prioritize inclusivity and transparency in AI-driven hiring processes. Below are some key solutions for overcoming AI bias:

    1. Diversify training data. One of the most effective ways to combat AI bias is to ensure training data is inclusive, diverse and representative of a wide range of candidates. This means including data from diverse racial, ethnic, gender, socioeconomic and educational backgrounds.

    2. Conduct regular bias audits. Frequent and thorough audits of AI systems should be conducted to identify patterns of bias and discrimination. This includes examining the algorithm’s outputs, decision-making processes and its impact on different demographic groups.

    It is important to actively involve human judgment in AI-driven decisions, particularly when making final hiring choices.
    (Shutterstock)

    3. Implement fairness-aware algorithms. Use AI software that incorporates fairness constraints and is designed to consider and mitigate bias by balancing outcomes for underrepresented groups. This can include integrating fairness metrics such as equal opportunity, modifying training data to show less bias and adjusting model predictions based on fairness criteria to increase equity.

    4. Increase transparency. Seek AI solutions that offer insight into their algorithms and decision-making processes to make it easier to identify and address potential biases. Additionally, make sure to disclose any use of AI in the hiring process to candidates to maintain transparency with your job applicants and other stakeholders.

    5. Maintain human oversight. To maintain control over hiring algorithms, managers and leaders must actively review AI-driven decisions, especially when making final hiring choices. Emerging research highlights the critical role of human oversight in safeguarding against the risks posed by AI applications. However, for this oversight to be effective and meaningful, leaders must ensure that ethical considerations are part of the hiring process and promote the responsible, inclusive and ethical use of AI.

    Bias in hiring algorithms raises serious ethical concerns and demands greater attention toward the mindful, responsible and inclusive use of AI. Understanding and addressing the ethical considerations and biases of AI-driven hiring is essential to ensuring fairer hiring outcomes and preventing technology from reinforcing systemic bias.

    Mehnaz Rafi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When AI plays favourites: How algorithmic bias shapes the hiring process – https://theconversation.com/when-ai-plays-favourites-how-algorithmic-bias-shapes-the-hiring-process-239471

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Transparency and trust: How news consumers in Canada want AI to be used in journalism

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nicole Blanchett, Associate Professor, Journalism, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Developing clear policies and principles that are communicated with audiences should be an essential part of any newsroom’s AI practice. (Shutterstock)

    When it comes to artificial intelligence (AI) and news production, Canadian news consumers want to know when, how and why AI is part of journalistic work. And if they don’t get that transparency, they could lose trust in news organizations.

    News consumers are so concerned about how the use of AI could impact the accuracy of stories and the spread of misinformation, a majority favour government regulation of how AI is used in journalism.

    These are some of our preliminary findings after surveying a representative sample of 1,042 Canadian news consumers, most of whom accessed news daily.

    This research is part of the Global Journalism Innovation Lab which researches new approaches to journalism. Those of us on the team at Toronto Metropolitan University are particularly interested in looking at news from an audience perspective in order to develop strategies for best practice.

    The industry has high hopes that the use of AI could lead to better journalism, but there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of figuring out how to use it ethically.

    Not everyone, for example, is sure the promise of time saved on tasks that AI can do faster will actually translate into more time for better reporting.

    We hope our research will help newsrooms understand audience priorities as they develop standards of practice surrounding AI, and prevent further erosion of trust in journalism.

    AI and transparency

    We found that a lack of transparency could have serious consequences for news outlets that use AI. Almost 60 per cent of those surveyed said they would lose trust in a news organization if they found out a story was generated by AI that they thought was written by a human, something also reflected in international studies.

    The overwhelming majority of respondents in our study, more than 85 per cent, want newsrooms to be transparent about how AI is being used. Three quarters want that to include labelling of content created by AI. And more than 70 per cent want the government to regulate the use of AI by news outlets.

    Organizations like Trusting News, which helps journalists build trust with audiences, now offer advice on what AI transparency should look like and say it’s more than just labelling a story — people want to know why news organizations are using AI.

    Audience trust

    Our survey also showed a significant contrast in confidence in news depending on the level of AI used. For example, more than half of respondents said they had high to very high trust in news produced just by humans. However, that level of trust dropped incrementally the more AI was involved in the process, to just over 10 per cent for news content that was generated by AI only.

    In questions where news consumers had to choose a preference between humans and AI to make journalistic decisions, humans were far preferred. For example, more than 70 per cent of respondents felt humans were better at determining what was newsworthy, compared to less than six per cent who felt AI would have better news judgement. Eighty-six per cent of respondents felt humans should always be part of the journalistic process.

    As newsrooms struggle to retain fractured audiences with fewer resources, the use of AI also has to be considered in terms of the value of the products they’re creating. More than half of our survey respondents perceived news produced mostly by AI with some human oversight as less worth paying for, which isn’t encouraging considering the existing reluctance to pay for news in Canada.

    This result echoes a recent Reuters study, where an average of 41 per cent of people across six countries saw less value in AI-generated news.

    Concerns about accuracy

    In terms of negative impacts of AI in a newsroom, about 70 per cent of respondents were concerned about accuracy in news stories and job losses for journalists. Two-thirds of respondents felt the use of AI might lead to reduced exposure to a variety of information. An increased spread of mis- and disinformation, something recognized widely as a serious threat to democracy, was of concern for 78 per cent of news consumers.

    Using AI to replace journalists was what made respondents most uncomfortable, and there was also less comfort with using it for editorial functions such as writing articles and deciding what stories to develop in the first place.

    There was far more comfort with using it for non-editorial tasks such as transcription and copy editing, echoing findings in previous research in Canada and other markets.

    We also gathered a lot of data unrelated to AI to get a sense of how Canadians are tapping into news and the news they’re tapping into. Politics and local news were the two most popular types of news, chosen by 67 per cent of respondents, even though there is less local news to consume due to extensive cuts, mergers and closures.

    A lot of people in our sample of Canadians, around 30 per cent, don’t actively look for news. They let it find them, something called passive consumption. And although this is proportionally higher in news consumers under 35, this isn’t just a phenomenon seen in the younger demographic. More than half of those who reported letting news find them were over 35 years old.

    Although smartphones are increasingly becoming the likely access points of news for many consumers, including almost 70 per cent for those 34 and under and about 60 per cent of those between 35 and 44, television is where most news consumers in our study reported getting their journalism.

    Respondents in our survey were asked to select all of their points of news access. More than 80 per cent of participants chose some form of TV, with some respondents picking two TV formats, for example, cable TV and smart TV. Surprisingly to us, half of 18-24 year olds reported TV as an access point for news. For those 44 and under, it was more often through a smart TV, though. As shown in other Canadian studies, TV news still plays an important role in the media landscape.

    This is just a broad look at the data we have collected. Our analysis is just beginning. We’re going to dig deeper into how different demographics feel about the use of AI in journalism and how the use of AI might impact audience trust.

    We will also soon be launching our survey with research partners in the United Kingdom and Australia to find out if there are differences in perceptions of AI in the three countries.

    Even these initial results provide a lot of evidence that, as newsrooms work to survive in a destabilized market, using AI could have detrimental effects on the perceived value of their journalism. Developing clear policies and principles that are communicated with audiences should be an essential part of any newsroom’s AI practice in Canada.

    Nicole Blanchett receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and The Creative School at Toronto Metropolitan University.

    Charles H. Davis receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and has received funding from Toronto Metropolitan University.

    Mariia Sozoniuk works with the Explanatory Journalism Project which is supported by funding from The Creative School at Toronto Metropolitan University and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

    Sibo Chen receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and The Creative School at Toronto Metropolitan University.

    – ref. Transparency and trust: How news consumers in Canada want AI to be used in journalism – https://theconversation.com/transparency-and-trust-how-news-consumers-in-canada-want-ai-to-be-used-in-journalism-240527

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Too many kids face bullying rooted in social power imbalances — and educators can help prevent this

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Deinera Exner-Cortens, Associate Professor of Psychology and Tier 2 Canada Research Chair (Childhood Health Promotion), University of Calgary

    Educators can help kids understand the difference between using power negatively and positively, and encourage its positive use to build respectful environments. (Allison Shelley/The Verbatim Agency for EDUimages), CC BY-NC

    Being at school among peers and friends can be exciting and positive for many children and youth. But, too many kids in Canada face the reality of being bullied because of some aspect of who they are.

    This type of bullying — known as identity-based or bias-based bullying — is extremely harmful to kids’ sense of belonging at school, and has negative effects on their physical and mental health, their academic achievement and their social well-being.

    As psychology researchers and directors of the Promoting Relationships and Eliminating Violence Network (PREVNet), we developed accessible learning modules for educators so they can learn to recognize identity-based bullying, and intervene to stop it.

    While explicitly developed with education settings in mind, these may also be helpful for parents or other caring adults in situations of influence for children’s peer relations. These modules will be available in French by the end of the year.

    Harmful to kids’ well-being

    Bullying has several key elements that make it so harmful to kids’ well-being.

    Bullying is unwanted, aggressive behaviour that is often repeated over time. These behaviours can be verbal, social, physical, sexual and/or cyber in nature.

    It happens in relationships where there is a power imbalance. In other words, the child who bullies holds more power than the child who experiences the bullying. In the case of identity-based bullying, this power imbalance is rooted in the types of power differences we see at a larger societal level.

    Bullying behaviours can be verbal, social, physical or sexual, and can take place in person or online.
    (Shutterstock)

    Social power dynamics, identity-based bullying

    It is well-documented that Indigenous youth, Black youth, 2SLGBTQIA+ youth and youth with disabilities experience discrimination in Canada.

    But why? Put simply, these experiences of discrimination are rooted in Canada’s settler-colonial history, which institutionalized racialized, class-based and colonial norms and forms of social privilege. These institutionalized forms of privilege resulted in greater political, social and economic power being granted to groups as they more closely aligned with these norms, with the greatest power allotted to those at the top of this “civilized” ideal: people who are white (western European), Christian, wealthy, cisgender, heterosexual, settler men.



    Read more:
    Rethinking masculinity: Teaching men how to love and be loved

    Groups who have been granted unearned power and privilege through these systems work to maintain their power through things like stigma, discrimination and other forms of oppression, while groups marginalized as “other” — less aligned with these dominant norms — continue to experience and hold less power across the socio-political-economic spectrum.

    And, youth who hold more than one socially marginalized identity often experience even greater discrimination.

    Schools as societal institutions

    Since schools are societal institutions, the discrimination and other forms of oppression that are used by dominant groups to maintain power in larger society are mirrored within schools through identity-based bullying.

    With identity-based bullying, the power imbalance that is a key feature of bullying behaviour is rooted in these larger social power imbalances.

    Because we all hold multiple social identities, a social power perspective also explains how these identities interact. Take, for example, a situation where a white, queer student is bullying a Black, queer student. Although both students are marginalized based on their queer identities, the white student still benefits from the power and privilege afforded to whiteness. So, this situation still reflects a power dynamic based on social identities.



    Read more:
    Racism contributes to poor attendance of Indigenous students in Alberta schools: New study

    Educator interventions

    Identity-based bullying is likely an issue in your neighbourhood school. In data we collected from 1,200 youth across Canada in 2023, one in three reported identity-based bullying because of their body weight, race or skin colour, disability, religion, sexual orientation and/or gender identity.

    Second, identity-based bullying impacts kids’ experiences at school. For example, a recent study from the United States found that youth who experienced multiple forms of identity-based bullying were the most likely to report avoiding class or activities. This study also found that if these same students felt more supported by adults at their school, they reported less school avoidance. This means caring educators are a protective factor for youth experiencing identity-based bullying.

    Our research has proposed ways educators specifically can prevent identity-based bullying in their schools:

    1) Educators (or other adults engaged in a school community) could examine their school board policy on bullying, and make sure it specifically mentions the role of social identities. If it doesn’t, educators can work to change it. A great example of naming identities when defining bullying can be seen in the Northwest Territories’ Education Act.

    2) Be self-reflective and aware. As a first step, educators can explore their own unconscious biases and reflect on how they may be influencing the classroom climate.

    3) Be a positive role model. Students look to adults about how to behave. Celebrate the strengths of all students and role model how to be respectful and inclusive. Also role model how to helpfully intervene when harmful behaviour occurs.

    4) Actively create opportunities for positive peer dynamics in the classroom. Be intentional about creating groups to ensure that students who are excluded are given the opportunity to interact and work with students who are kind and prosocial, and who may have similar interests and abilities.

    Educators can teach strategies that help all students learn how to be positive allies.
    (Shutterstock)

    5) Empower all students to intervene safely and effectively. Actively educate students on how to recognize identity-based bullying and provide strategies that will help all students to be positive allies.

    6) Work at classroom, school and community levels to create a welcoming, inclusive environment for all children. For educators, this can include things like conducting curriculum review, actively incorporating learning about power, privilege and oppression, creating and supporting clubs like gay-straight alliances and working to create a trauma-informed classroom.

    These strategies can be consolidated and deepened through engaging with our new anti-bullying training modules, which focus specifically on identity-based bullying.

    In these ways, educators and other caring adults can help kids understand the difference between using power negatively and positively, and encourage its positive use to build inclusive, respectful and safe environments for all.

    Deinera Exner-Cortens receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Canada Research Chairs program. She is also the director of PREVNet Inc, a registered charitable organization in Canada.

    Elizabeth (Liz) Baker receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada and Alberta’s Children Services. She is affiliated with PREVNet as Executive Director.

    Wendy Craig receives funding from Public Health Agency of Canada. She is the Scientific Co-Director of PREVNet (Promoting Healthy Relationships and Eliminating Violence Network.

    – ref. Too many kids face bullying rooted in social power imbalances — and educators can help prevent this – https://theconversation.com/too-many-kids-face-bullying-rooted-in-social-power-imbalances-and-educators-can-help-prevent-this-237613

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What you need to know about cold and flu season

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jennifer Guthrie, Assistant Professor of Microbiology and Immunology, Western University

    Flu shots are recommended for most Canadians over six months old. (Shutterstock)

    As the fall months settle in, Canadians are being urged to take precautions against the upcoming flu season.

    Flu season in Canada typically peaks between December and February, but the virus can circulate much earlier. Public health officials are advocating for early vaccination, emphasizing that the annual flu vaccine is the most effective way to protect against infection and reduce the severity of illness.

    Clinics across Canada offer flu shots free of charge.

    Influenza

    Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that spread easily from person to person. These viruses mainly affect the nose, throat and lungs. Flu symptoms typically include fever, chills, muscle aches, cough, congestion, runny nose, headaches and fatigue.

    Unlike the common cold, which often develops slowly, the flu tends to hit suddenly and can lead to severe complications like pneumonia, bronchitis and even death, particularly in high-risk groups such as young children, seniors over 65, pregnant individuals, and those with chronic conditions like asthma, diabetes or heart disease.

    Influenza spreads mainly through droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people nearby, or they can linger on surfaces where the virus can survive for up to 48 hours. Preventive measures such as handwashing, mask-wearing and staying home when symptomatic help reduce the spread of the virus.

    How the flu vaccine works

    Each year, flu vaccines are updated to protect against the influenza viruses that research indicates will be most common during the upcoming season. The flu shot contains inactivated or weakened influenza viruses, which cannot cause the flu but help the immune system develop antibodies. These antibodies protect against infection when exposed to live flu viruses.

    The vaccine typically takes about two weeks after administration for immunity to build up, which is why public health officials recommend getting vaccinated in the fall, before flu rates start to rise. This gives individuals enough time to develop immunity before influenza becomes more widespread.

    Can you get flu and COVID-19 vaccines together?

    Each year, flu vaccines are updated to protect against the influenza viruses that research indicates will be most common during the upcoming season.
    (Shutterstock)

    Public health experts have confirmed that it is safe to receive the flu vaccine and the COVID-19 vaccine at the same time. Doing so can provide protection against both illnesses and reduce the chances of severe complications from either virus. Administering both vaccines during the same visit is a convenient way to ensure you’re protected for the season, especially as COVID-19 continues to circulate alongside influenza.

    Benefits of the flu shot

    One of the key benefits of flu vaccination is that it significantly reduces the risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death from the flu. While flu vaccines aren’t 100 per cent effective at preventing infection, they greatly lessen the severity of the illness and reduce the spread of the virus in the community. This is especially important for protecting high-risk groups like seniors, children, pregnant people and individuals with chronic health conditions.

    Additionally, widespread flu vaccination helps prevent the health-care system from becoming overwhelmed, especially in a year when other respiratory viruses like respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19 are still circulating. By reducing the overall number of flu-related hospitalizations, vaccines also free up health-care resources for other urgent needs.

    Why get vaccinated every year?

    One of the unique challenges of influenza is that the virus mutates constantly. Because of these frequent changes, immunity from last year’s vaccine won’t provide full protection this season. This is why the flu vaccine is updated annually to match the most prevalent strains of the virus.

    Even if a person received a flu shot the previous year, it’s important to get vaccinated again to stay protected against new viral strains circulating in the population. Flu vaccines are reformulated each year based on global surveillance data collected by organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    Misconceptions about the flu vaccine

    Despite clear benefits, misconceptions about the flu shot continue to contribute to low vaccination rates.

    Some people believe that the flu vaccine can cause the flu, but this is a myth. The inactivated viruses in the flu vaccine cannot cause illness. After receiving the vaccine, some people may experience mild side-effects like soreness at the injection site or a low-grade fever, but these symptoms are short-lived and far less severe than a full-blown flu infection.

    Another misconception is that the flu shot is not necessary for healthy adults. While healthy people may have a lower risk of severe flu complications, they can still spread the virus to more vulnerable individuals, such as young children, seniors or immunocompromised family members. Getting vaccinated helps protect both the individual and the community through herd immunity.

    Jennifer Guthrie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What you need to know about cold and flu season – https://theconversation.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-cold-and-flu-season-240962

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, Research Associate, Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado Boulder

    Evacuation is more difficult for people with health and mobility issues. Ted Richardson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

    As Hurricane Milton roared ashore near Sarasota, Florida, tens of thousands of people were in evacuation shelters. Hundreds of thousands more had fled coastal regions ahead of the storm, crowding highways headed north and south as their counties issued evacuation orders.

    But not everyone left, despite dire warnings about a hurricane that had been one of the strongest on record two days earlier.

    As Milton’s rain and storm surge flooded neighborhoods late on Oct. 9, 2024, 911 calls poured in. In Tampa’s Hillsborough County, more than 500 people had to be rescued, including residents of an assisted living community and families trapped in a flooding home after a tree crashed though the roof at the height of the storm.

    In Plant City, 20 miles inland from Tampa, at least 35 people had been rescued by dawn, City Manager Bill McDaniel said. While the storm wasn’t as extreme as feared, McDaniel said his city had flooded in places and to levels he had never seen. Traffic signals were out. Power lines and trees were down. The sewage plant had been inundated, affecting the public water supply.

    Evacuating might seem like the obvious move when a major hurricane is bearing down on your region, but that choice is not always as easy as it may seem.

    Evacuating from a hurricane requires money, planning, the ability to leave and, importantly, a belief that evacuating is better than staying put.

    I recently examined years of research on what motivates people to leave or seek shelter during hurricanes as part of a project with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Natural Hazards Center. I found three main reasons that people didn’t leave.

    Evacuating can be expensive

    Evacuating requires transportation, money, a place to stay, the ability to take off work days ahead of a storm and other resources that many people do not have.

    With 1 in 9 Americans facing poverty today, many have limited evacuation options. During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, many residents did not own vehicles and couldn’t reach evacuation buses. That left them stranded in the face of a deadly hurricane. Nearly 1,400 people died in the storm, many of them in flooded homes.

    When millions of people are under evacuation orders, logistical issues also arise.

    Two days ahead of landfall, Milton was a Category 5 hurricane. About 5 million people were under evacuation orders, and highways were crowded.

    Gas shortages and traffic jams can leave people stranded on highways and unable to find shelter before the storm hits. This happened during Hurricane Floyd in 1999 as 2 million Floridians tried to evacuate.

    People who experienced past evacuations or saw news video of congested highways ahead of Hurricane Milton might not leave for fear of getting stuck.

    Health, pets and being physically able to leave

    The logistics of evacuating are even more challenging for people who are disabled or in nursing homes. Additionally, people who are incarcerated may have no choice in the matter – and the justice system may have few options for moving them.

    Evacuating nursing homes, people with disabilities or prison populations is complex. Many shelters are not set up to accommodate their needs. In one example during Hurricane Floyd, a disabled person arrived at a shelter, but the hallways were too narrow for their wheelchair, so they were restricted to a cot for the duration of their stay. Moving people whose health is fragile, and doing so under stressful conditions, can also worsen health problems, leaving nursing home staff to make difficult decisions.

    At least 700 people stayed in chairs or on air mattresses at River Ridge Middle/High School in New Port Richey, Fla., during Hurricane Milton.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    But failing to evacuate can also be deadly. During Hurricane Irma in 2017, seven nursing home residents died in the rising heat after their facility lost power near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. In some cases, public water systems are shut down or become contaminated. And flooding can create several health hazards, including the risk of infectious diseases.

    In a study of 291 long-term care facilities in Florida, 81% sheltered residents in place during the 2004 hurricane season because they had limited transportation options and faced issues finding places for residents to go.

    Some shelters allow small pets, but many don’t. This high school-turned-shelter in New Port Richey, Fla., had 283 registered pets.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    People with pets face another difficult choice – some choose to stay at home for fear of leaving their pet behind. Studies have found that pet owners are significantly less likely to evacuate than others because of difficulties transporting pets and finding shelters that will take them. In destructive storms, it can be days to weeks before people can return home.

    Risk perception can also get in the way

    People’s perceptions of risk can also prevent them from leaving.

    A series of studies show that women and minorities take hurricane risks more seriously than other groups and are more likely to evacuate or go to shelters. One study found that women are almost twice as likely than men to evacuate when given a mandatory evacuation order.

    If people have experienced a hurricane before that didn’t do significant damage, they may perceive the risks of a coming storm to be lower and not leave.

    Video from across Florida after Hurricane Milton shows flooding around homes, trees down and other damage. At least 12 people died in the storm, and more than 3 million homes lost power.

    In my review of research, I found that many people who didn’t evacuate had reservations about going to shelters and preferred to stay home or with family or friends. Shelter conditions were sometimes poor, overcrowded or lacked privacy.

    People had fears about safety and whether shelter environments could meet their needs. For example, religious minorities were not sure whether shelters would be clean, safe, have private places for religious practice, and food options consistent with faith practices. Diabetics and people with young children also had concerns about finding appropriate food in shelters.

    How to improve evacuations for the future

    There are ways leaders can reduce the barriers to evacuation and shelter use. For example:

    • Building more shelters able to withstand hurricane force winds can create safe havens for people without transportation or who are unable to leave their jobs in time to evacuate.

    • Arranging more shelters and transportation able to accommodate people with disabilities and those with special needs, such as nursing home residents, can help protect vulnerable populations.

    • Opening shelters to accommodate pets with their owners can also increase the likelihood that pet owners will evacuate.

    • Public education can be improved so people know their options. Clearer risk communication on how these storms are different than past ones and what people are likely to experience can also help people make informed decisions.

    • Being prepared saves lives. Many areas would benefit from better advance planning that takes into account the needs of large, diverse populations and can ensure populations have ways to evacuate to safety.

    This article has been updated with additional details about Hurricane Milton’s damage.

    Carson MacPherson-Krutsky works for the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. She receives grant and contract funding for her work at NHC through the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and other funders.

    – ref. Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way – https://theconversation.com/evacuating-in-disasters-like-hurricane-milton-isnt-simple-there-are-reasons-people-stay-in-harms-way-240869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories: Soraya, the ‘real’ Queen of the South in Nicaragua

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Dennis Rodgers, Research Professor, Anthropology and Sociology, Graduate Institute – Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement (IHEID)

    For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics in a comparative perspective. When understood in a nuanced manner that goes beyond the usual stereotypes and Manichean representations, gangs and gangsters arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and understand the world we live in.

    Dennis Rodgers describes how “Soraya” became involved in drug trafficking in Luis Fanor Hernández, a poor neighbourhood in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua. Known locally as “la Reina del Sur” – the “Queen of the South” – her story shows how drug trafficking is a highly gendered activity, that reinforces macho violence and patriarchal dynamics of domination.

    Seated on a slightly tatty, overstuffed sofa, I watch as Soraya meticulously manicures Wanda’s fingernails. Her face a picture of tense concentration, she begins by carefully tracing red and white stripes along the distal bands of four out of five fingers on each hand, before then delicately dotting small flowers on each index.

    Wanda’s nails.
    D. Rodgers, Fourni par l’auteur

    We are in the barrio Luis Fanor Hernández, a poor urban neighbourhood in Managua, the capital city of Nicaragua, in Central America. I’ve been carrying out longitudinal ethnographic research on gang dynamics there since 1996. I returned in February 2020 to, among other things, interview Wanda about the way that the local drug trade – and particularly her husband Bismarck’s involvement – had impacted her life over the years. Wanda is one of my key research interlocutors in the barrio, whom I’ve known for over 25 years.

    “I can come back to do our interview later,” I say to Wanda.

    “No, no, it’s fine, Dennis,” she replies. “Soraya’s almost finished, and in any case, she’s de confianza, so why don’t we just get started? It’s not as if she doesn’t know about Bismarck and his drug dealing… But you know what? If you want a female perspective on drugs, you should really interview her, not me – I’m just the wife of an ex-drug dealer, but she’s la Reina del Sur!”

    “The Queen of the South?”, I ask, throwing Soraya a querying glance. Looking up from her manicuring labours, she smirks sardonically before saying, “You know, Dennis, like in the telenovela, about that Mexican woman who becomes a narcotraficante (drug dealer).”

    “Yes, I get that, I know the series, but she became a powerful drug dealer, and from what I know you’re not a big-time narco, are you?”

    “Nah, I was just a mulera (street dealer), but people call me la Reina del Sur, because I’m strong-willed and independent, just like the real Reina.”

    Chuckling, I reply, “You do know the Reina isn’t real, yes?”, before then asking her more earnestly, “but would you be willing to do an interview with me about all that, though?” Soraya ponders my request for a few seconds before replying brusquely, “dale, but not today, I’ve got an errand to run. I’ll meet you here at the same time tomorrow”.

    Without waiting for an answer, Soraya then dots a final petal on Wanda’s left index nail, packs up her files and polish, and leaves Wanda and me to our interview.

    The gendered nature of drug dealing in Latin America

    Drug trafficking has become an searing topic in Latin America over the last two decades.

    Every year, this criminal activity results in thousands of violent deaths and tens of thousands of health-related mortalities. Drug trafficking also has profoundly negative effects on economies, political systems, and ecologies in the region.

    Numerous studies have traced the forms of production, the actors involved, the routes and flows, the nature of local and international markets, and the profound but variable social impact that drugs can have.

    One point on which most studies agree is that drug trafficking is a predominantly male activity. Fewer women than men are involved, and they are generally seen through the prism of particular categorisations: either as victims, suffering direct and indirect forms of violence as a result of being the mothers, wives or girlfriends of drug traffickers, or as emancipated and liberated individuals whose involvement in trafficking challenges gender-based structures of power and inequality.

    These kinds of binary representations have long seemed simplistic to me. The interviews conducted with Wanda during the course of my years of research in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández have highlighted how the image of the drug dealer’s wife as a victim of her husband’s trafficking is a caricature. The same was also true of the interview I conducted with Soraya about her career as a drug dealer, which challenged the notion that drug dealing could be emancipating for a woman.

    “Pac-Man” in the barrio

    Soraya was born in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández in 1987. Her mother, Gladys, was from the neighbourhood, while her father, Jorge, was from Villa Cuba, a neighbourhood in the north-east of Managua. They had an on-and-off relationship for the first decade of Soraya’s life, meaning that she moved several times between her father’s home in Villa Cuba, and her maternal family home in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández. Gladys and Jorge split up definitely when Soraya was 13 years old, after Gladys stabbed Jorge with a kitchen knife while defending Soraya, whom he was beating.

    “My mother and I moved back [to barrio Luis Fanor Hernández] after we left my father. There were five of us in the house – me, my mother, my aunt, my cousin, and my cousin’s husband. You know him, Dennis, he’s the one they call ‘Pac-man’ [because of his great appetite], so you know he’s a narcotraficante [drug dealer]. My aunt and my cousin would help him from time to time with his bisnes, but this was when the drug trade was increasing, and he had lots to do, and they started asking me to ‘do them a favour’, to help them. At first it was small things, you know, moving drugs or money from one place to another, or helping them ‘cook’ cocaine into crack, but after a while I started selling for him as a mulera, in the streets, which I could do well because the police were less suspicious of me, as a young girl, you know.”

    Crack doses ready for sale.
    Dennis Rodgers, Fourni par l’auteur

    Neither the way nor the reasons why Soraya became involved in trafficking can be described as particularly emancipatory. Rather, they highlight the way in which drug trafficking in fact responds to very gendered and “intimate” logics. On the one hand, Soraya’s status as a young woman made her useful to her cousin’s husband in carrying out certain drug trafficking operations without attracting suspicion in a wider macho Nicaraguan context, but on the other hand, her family ties to “Pac-Man” also made it difficult for her to refuse to help him.

    Enduring gendered oppression

    Soraya’s involvement in drug trafficking was also profoundly affected by her relationship with Elvis Gomez, with whom she became involved at the age of 15 (when Elvis was 23). Elvis was a failed drug dealer. He had tried unsuccessfully to become involved in drug trafficking several times in the past, and once he was in a relationship with Soraya, he forced her to let him work with her so that he could benefit from the financial windfall that this activity generated for those involved in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández.

    The kind of house a successful drug dealer such as Soraya might have lived in in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández in 2003 (not her real house).
    Dennis Rodgers, Fourni par l’auteur

    One of the reasons Elvis had failed to establish himself as a drug dealer was that he was a drug user, and Soraya often had to cover for him when he consumed the drugs that “Pac-Man” gave him instead of selling them, repaying his loss of earnings through the profits of her own drug dealing.

    In 2010, Elvis used the savings that Soraya had accumulated from her drug dealing to finance his emigration to the United States. He told her he would bring her over later, but he left with another woman, Yulissa, with whom he had been involved simultaneously, along with their daughter. He also took Ramses, the son he had with Soraya in 2007, and cut off all contact with Soraya. She told me poignantly, “I was going crazy, texting him every day, telling him to let me talk to my son, and telling him to bring him back to Nicaragua, that I wanted him to live with me”. He only got back in touch in 2016, to insist that Soraya divorce him and formally transfer legal custody of Ramses to him, which she eventually did, in exchange for being able to be in regular contact with her son.

    This episode clearly illustrates how Soraya’s trafficking activities inscribed themselves within wider structures and practices of gender inequality and male domination. Nicaragua remains a country marked by patriarchy and machismo, something that was strikingly reflected in the law banning abortion under all circumstances passed in 2008, or the adoption of law 779 on gender violence in 2012, which defines all such instances as “domestic violence” that must be resolved through mediation rather than the penal system.

    In the end, although she was known as la Reina del Sur, this nickname had nothing to do with Soraya having a position of dominance in the drug trade in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández. Indeed, the vast majority of (few) women drug dealers in the neighbourhood were at the bottom of the business pyramid.

    Beautician

    Soraya says she stopped selling drugs in 2012, and that she is now a full-time beautician. Several current drug dealers in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández have, however, told me that she continues to deal and that her manicure business provides a convenient cover.

    The fact that Soraya earns no more than 15 to 20 dollars a week from her manicure business could clearly be interpreted as suggesting that this might be the case. Soraya firmly denies it, however, and I believe her. Not only does she take on various odd jobs to make ends meet for herself and her ageing mother, she also lives in very humble conditions. Her current home, in particular, is much less flamboyant than any of those in which she lived in the past.

    The type of house that Soraya lives in today (not her real house).
    Dennis Rodgers, Fourni par l’auteur

    When compared to the trajectories of male traffickers in the barrio – many of whom have greatly benefited, and continue to benefit, from their involvement in trafficking even after they have stopped dealing – it can be argued that Soraya’s involvement in drug trafficking has enhanced patriarchal and macho constraints, contributing to her current situation.

    At the same time, while Soraya’s life has unquestionably been marked by a constant struggle in the face of different forms of domination and oppression, she also frequently and persistently seeks to confront and challenge her predicament. This is perhaps partly linked to her involvement in the drug trade, as the WhatsApp exchange I had with Soraya on 8 March 2021 clearly suggested. She had uploaded a picture of herself drinking at a nightclub, overlaying it with the following text:

    “Today is International Women’s Day, and we celebrate the power of independent and autonomous women! We are beautiful, we are strong, and we can do whatever we want!”.

    I wrote to Soraya to wish her a happy International Women’s Day, and also to tell her that I’d started to write her biography “about when she was la Reina del Sur”. A few minutes later she replied – “por siempre La Reina!” (“forever the Queen!”).

    Dennis Rodgers a reçu une bourse ERC Advanced Grant (no. 787935) du Conseil Européen de la Recherche (https://erc.europa.eu) pour un projet intitulé “Gangs, Gangsters, and Ganglands: Towards a Global Comparative Ethnography” (GANGS).

    – ref. Gangs’stories: Soraya, the ‘real’ Queen of the South in Nicaragua – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-soraya-the-real-queen-of-the-south-in-nicaragua-233837

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Neanderthal remains found in France reveals there were not one, but at least two lineages of late Neanderthals in Europe

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Ludovic Slimak, Archéologue, penseur et chercheur au CNRS, Université de Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier

    31 out of 34 of Thorin’s teeth were found, making it the most complete dentition ever found from a Neanderthal. Ludovic Slimak, Fourni par l’auteur

    The prevailing narrative of how humanity came about seemed straightforward enough: in Europe, the last Neanderthals bowed out as Homo sapiens began arriving on the continent around 40,000 to 45,000 years ago. Neanderthals were thought to be part of a single, genetically homogeneous population, spread across Spain, France, Croatia, Belgium, and Germany. Genetic studies supported this view, suggesting a uniform population that would eventually give way to the newcomers, Homo sapiens. In just a few millennia — between 45,000 and 42,000 years ago — the brief cohabitation of these two species in Europe ended with the replacement of Neanderthals. The explanation was elegant and simple – perhaps a little too simple.

    A new lineage of Neanderthals

    Our research published in Cell Genomics on 11 September complicates this picture, revealing that there was not one, but at least two lineages of Neanderthals, following genetic analysis of body remains found in the Mandrin Cave, southeastern France. The study in Cell Genomics, which I co-lead with Tharsika Vimala and Martin Sikora, population geneticists at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, as well as Andaine Seguin-Orlando, a paleogenomicist at the University of Toulouse, is the culmination of nearly ten years of research leading to the discovery of France’s first Neanderthal body since 1978. We have chosen to call him Thorin after the writings of J.R.R. Tolkien, since Thorin was one of the last dwarf kings in Tolkien’s lore. Fittingly, the Thorin of the Mandrin Cave is believed to be one of the last Neanderthals.

    He is among the most recent occupations of the Mandrin Cave. We discovered his first teeth in 2015, lying on the ground at the cave’s entrance, barely covered by a few leaves. Although the teeth were initially exposed, they were embedded in fragile sand, making the excavation delicate. The slightest brush stroke risked displacing the precious remains, making it difficult to determine their precise position in the ground. As the head of research at Mandrin Cave, I decided we proceed to excavate the body with tweezers. Grain by grain, our team worked painstakingly for two to three months each – a process that has lasted for nine years and is still ongoing. This Herculean field effort allowed the recovery of the tiniest remains, which were carefully documented in their original positions. Through three-dimensional mapping, the team has reconstructed the exact location of the remains in the ground.

    Meet Thorin

    So far, 31 teeth (Thorin had 34, representing the first Neandertal ever found with surnumerary molars), along with the jawbone, fragments of the skull, phalanges and thousands of tiny bones have been discovered. The excavation process here requires remarkable patience; after nine years of effort, we have only managed to clear a small window of about 50 cm by 30 cm wide. Numerous remains of this body are likely to gradually emerge in the coming years.

    Our study shows that Thorin’s population diverged significantly from other Neanderthals in Europe over more than 50,000 years. Unlike most late Neanderthals, who display genetic homogeneity, Thorin’s lineage remained genetically distinct from 105,000 years ago until their extinction.

    This raises the question: How could human populations remain isolated for tens of thousands of years, despite living within a two-week walking distance of each other? This is the challenge Thorin presents us with. Evolutionary, cultural, and social processes that seem unimaginable if we try to apply them to Sapiens populations, as we understand them through cultural anthropology, history, and archaeology. Something appears to profoundly differentiate the ways of being in the world of Neanderthals and Sapiens, something far deeper than mere cultural or territorial issues. It confronts us directly with the enigma of Neanderthal and, quite possibly, our own inability to understand these ancient species.

    Thorin’s peers and other ghosts

    Strikingly, we found that Thorin is not the only one in his lineage, with genetic analysis revealing links to another Neanderthal discovered over 1,700 kilometers away, in Gibraltar. This Neanderthal, nicknamed Nana, was thought to be an ancient individual who lived 80 to 100,000 years ago. However, the study in Cell Genomics reveals that Nana and Thorin lived during the same period — within the last millennia of Neanderthal existence. This close genetic proximity suggests that Nana and Thorin belonged to the same population of late Neanderthals, a population that would no longer have any exchanges with the classic European Neanderthals after the 105th millennium and up until their astonishing extinction 42,000 years ago.

    Our study also suggests the existence of a “ghost” Neanderthal lineage — another population that roamed Europe at the same time, yet remains unknown. This implies that there were other Neanderthal populations in Europe in relatively recent periods that belonged neither to the classic Neanderthals nor to Thorin’s population, but genetics is then able to identify moments when Thorin’s ancestors could episodically exchange genes with these ghost populations that remain largely unknown to archaeology and genetics. A fascinating story then slowly begins to emerge in which Neanderthal is not a monolithic block but is represented by different populations that nevertheless developed only rare (and sometimes no) exchanges among themselves.

    Rewriting everything we know about early humanity

    The revelations of additional lineages of Neanderthal are the latest discovery to prompt us to radically rethink our understanding of early humanity. In 2022, after 32 years of archaeological research, our team had already revealed the existence of a first Sapiens migration to European territory 10,000 to 12,000 before the first migrations previously recognized. In the following year, we released three papers questioning our conceptions of this singular moment in human history, redefining not only the timing of these populations’ arrival but also that they had mastered advanced technology such as the bow and arrow, tracing back their steps to the Mediterranean Levant, and proposing a profound redefinition of the entire historical structure of this singular moment in European history.

    The latest discovery of Thorin’s remains, which I began to unveil in The Naked Neanderthal, poses countless questions. Did Neanderthal die out like the dinosaurs following a natural upheaval carrying away his entire world? Around Neanderthal, theories related to climate change, volcanic explosions, cosmic radiation, or devastating epidemics have flourished in recent years. To understand Sapiens replacing Neanderthal, we must, above all, understand what Neanderthal was. And what Sapiens is. And it is my conviction that the nature of the two creatures deeply eludes us.

    The research continues, and, as more discoveries are made, the story only deepens.

    Ludovic Slimak ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Neanderthal remains found in France reveals there were not one, but at least two lineages of late Neanderthals in Europe – https://theconversation.com/neanderthal-remains-found-in-france-reveals-there-were-not-one-but-at-least-two-lineages-of-late-neanderthals-in-europe-238606

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Frieze 2024: it’s an industry art fair you’re not supposed to like – but here’s why you might

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Lang, Senior Lecturer and Programme Leader in Fine Art , University of Lincoln

    The average art lover isn’t supposed to like art fairs because they’re so corporate. When you pay £9 for a sandwich and your wifi is sponsored by a big bank, you can understand the reservations. They’re also too big and crowded. Even the VIPs are left queuing to get in.

    But the fair provides opportunities to see work from galleries from all over the world in London and there is plenty of good art on display. As Frieze describes itself “[it] is one of the world’s most influential contemporary art fairs, focusing only on contemporary art and living artists”. It is primarily for those in the art world, those who create, critique and those who collect, and a lot of money changes hands as the world’s galleries show the best they have. But it has also become a cultural day out.

    Apart from loads of great painting and the occasional noncommercial showpiece, Frieze goes out of its way to balance the corporate with more thoughtful displays. There’s a chance to see big-name artists, international galleries and work by new artists. The “Artist-to-Artist” section returned this year, containing work by emerging talents (selected by established artists). With so much on show, Frieze can be daunting. You can easily spend a whole day at the fair, but with so much on display there is truly something for everybody.

    At this year’s Frieze, international highlights included Proyectos Ultravioleta from Guatemala city, who showed miniature paintings by Rosa Elena Curruchich hung alongside larger works emblazoned with the text “me venden” (they’re selling me) by Edgar Calels. Calels also brought the smell of a forest into the booth by covering the floor with pine needles.

    Jhaveri Contemporary (Mumbai, India) presented work by the Bangladeshi duo Kamruzzaman Shadhin and Gidree Bawlee. The piece Kaal (Pala) consists of seven delightful jute figures – among the most enchanting figurative sculptures I have seen recently. Joydeb Roaja’s pen drawings of people, tanks, and people with tanks on their heads are as enigmatic and disturbing as they are engaging.

    Non-commercial art appeared in Jenkins Van Zyl’s Sweat Exchange at Edel Assanti (London). This video installation housed in what Van Zyl has called a sauna-cum-“sweat extraction brewery”, which features two doppelgangers, who alternate between self-care and abuse. Imagine the Pink Panther crossed with Jar Jar Binks as a drag queen and you’re nearly there.

    Then there was Patrick Goddard’s silver cast bees on the floor of Seventeen Gallery, and Lawrence Lek (winner of the Frieze artist award) who has produced Guanyin: Confessions of a Former Carebot – an interactive videogame installation about an AI created to service self-driving cars.

    Most of the works were are those hung on walls. Gallery booths have a small storage area in which they are able to keep paintings and prints, (but less able to store sculptural works). Collectors also favour paintings, prints and photographs to adorn their walls (or similarly put into storage) over artists’ films or video installations.

    What’s to complain about though when there is so much good painting on display?

    Highlights included Tom Anholt and Ryan Mosley at Josh Lilley Gallery (London); Carl Freedman Gallery (Margate), which showed great paintings by Ben Senior, Laura Footes and Vanessa Raw (as well as Lindsey Mendick’s ceramic sculptures) and Tanya Leighton Gallery (Berlin and LA), which had plenty of good painting on show, including works by Matthew Krishanu. Ingleby (Edinburgh) showed Andrew Cranston and Hayley Barker and Arcadia Missa (London) showed Lewis Hammond’s Schmetterling, an eerie blue interior with an unsettling blue-eyed figure, and Jesse Darling, whose Come on England (up the) takes a novel approach to wall-based work by leaning crowd-control barriers in the corner of the gallery booth.

    Counter Editions (Margate) presented a Tracey Emin solo show. You’re not supposed to like Emin, since she outed herself as a Tory sympathiser. Opposite is a Billy Childish solo show at Lehmann Maupin (London, Seoul, New York), where the artist paints live while wearing a beret next to a dirty stepladder for reaching the tops of the large canvases. You’re not supposed to like Billy Childish either because he is a Stuckist (stuck in the age of Van Gogh and Edvard Munch – his only two art heroes). Funnily enough, Charles Thomson, co-founder of Stuckism, derived the name from an insult by Emin, who told Childish, her ex-lover, that his art was “stuck, stuck, stuck”. Don’t tell anybody, but the Emin and Childish works were quite good.

    With an annual curated section, more solo shows and over 270 Galleries from more than 40 countries, if you love art in all its forms (and can afford it) you should experience Frieze London at least once. If you didn’t go this year, you really should spend a day there next. Despite what people say… you’re bound to find something you like.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Martin Lang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Frieze 2024: it’s an industry art fair you’re not supposed to like – but here’s why you might – https://theconversation.com/frieze-2024-its-an-industry-art-fair-youre-not-supposed-to-like-but-heres-why-you-might-241293

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five simple questions can help spot exaggerated research claims over sex differences in the brain

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gina Rippon, Professor Emeritus of Cognitive NeuroImaging, Aston University

    shutterstock FocalFinder/Shutterstock

    In the last ten years, some 20,000 or so academic papers have been published on the neuroscience of sex and gender. Perhaps you have read the media coverage of such papers, suggesting there’s finally proof that stereotypical abilities such as men being good at reading maps or women excelling at nurturing can be pinpointed in the brain.

    Given the sheer quantity of output in this area, how can you tell what is really groundbreaking research, and what is an overenthusiastic application of hype?

    Misleading spin is often blamed on university PR teams, non-specialist science writers in mainstream newspapers, or social media. But the source of deceptive impressions may sometimes be the research papers themselves.

    For example, researchers may hyper-focus on a limited set of findings. They may fail to report that many of the differences they were looking for didn’t make the statistical cut. Or they may be less than cautious in discussing the impact of their findings.

    Just as much as researchers need to be meticulous about the best methodology and the most powerful statistics, they need to manage the impressions they make when communicating their research. And, if they don’t, then the interested but non-expert reader may need help to spot this.

    Magic: spotting the spin

    My colleagues and I recently published a set of guidelines which offer just such assistance, identifying five sources of potential misrepresentation to look out for. The initials helpfully form the acronym “Magic”, which is short for magnitude, accuracy, generalisability, inflation and credibility.

    For magnitude, the question is: is the extent of any differences clearly and accurately described? Take this 2015 study on sex differences in the human brain. It reported on 34,716 different patterns of functional brain connectivity, and found statistical differences between females and males in 178 of them.

    Yet given that less than 0.5% of all possible differences they were measuring actually turned out to be statistically significant, they wouldn’t really be justified in reporting sex differences as prominent. In this study, they weren’t.

    The next question is to do with accuracy. Are techniques and variables clearly defined and carefully used in the interpretation of results? It should be really clear how the study was run, what measures were taken, and why.

    For example, a recent paper suggesting that the Covid lockdown effects had a more pronounced effect on adolescent girls’ brain structure than boys’ fell at this hurdle. The abstract referred to “longitudinal measures” and much of the narrative was couched in longitudinal “pre- and post-Covid” terms. Longitudinal studies –– which follow the same group of people over time –– are great as they can discover crucial changes in them.

    But if you peer closely at the paper, it emerges that the pre- and post-Covid lockdown comparisons appear to be between two different samples – admittedly selected from an ongoing longitudinal study. Nonetheless, it is not clear that like was compared with like.

    Don’t believe everything you hear about male and female capabilities.
    CrispyPork/Shutterstock

    The third question has to do with generalisability. Are authors cautious about how widely the results might be applied? Here we encounter the problem with many scientific studies being carried out on carefully selected and screened groups of participants – sometimes just their own students.

    Care should be taken to ensure this is clear to the reader, who shouldn’t be left with the impression that one or more sets of participants can be taken to be fully representative of (say) all females or all males. If all study participants are selected from the same single community, then referring to “hundreds of millions of people” in interpreting the relevance of the results is something of an overstatement.

    The fourth category, inflation, is to do with whether the authors avoid language that overstates the importance of their results. Terms such as “profound” and “fundamental” may be misplaced, for instance. Remember, James Watson and Francis Crick merely described their discovery of DNA’s double helix structure as of “considerable biological interest”.

    Finally, we should consider credibility: are authors careful to acknowledge how their findings do or do not fit with existing research? Authors should be up front about alternative explanations for their findings, or suggest other factors that might need to be investigated in further studies.

    Suppose, for example, they are looking at the allegedly robust sex differences in visuospatial skills, which include things like visual perception and spatial awareness. Have the authors acknowledged research suggesting that the amount of time people spend on practising this skill, such as when playing video games, has been shown to be more significant than biological sex in determining such differences?

    If gamers are more likely to be boys, that doesn’t necessarily mean their brains are wired for them – it could equally well be reflecting gendered pressures that make such games a popular, culturally comfortable pastime among boys.

    The focus of these guidelines is on sex/gender brain imaging studies, but they could well be applied to other areas of research.

    Post-lockdown surveys have suggested that the public has greater trust in what scientists are saying than they did before the pandemic. Scientists need to be careful that they retain that trust by ensuring that what they report is unambiguous and free from hype.

    Hopefully the Magic guidelines will help them and their editors achieve this; if they don’t, then eagle-eyed readers, Magic-ally armed, will be on their guard.

    Gina Rippon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five simple questions can help spot exaggerated research claims over sex differences in the brain – https://theconversation.com/five-simple-questions-can-help-spot-exaggerated-research-claims-over-sex-differences-in-the-brain-240356

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine faces worsening odds on the battlefield and a struggle on the diplomatic front after Biden postpones summit

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    In May 2023, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, embarked on a whistle-stop tour of European capitals to shore up support from his western partners in the run-up to Ukraine’s summer offensive that year. His tour was a relative success – the subsequent offensive less so.

    Fast forward 18 months, and Zelensky has once again been visiting London, Paris, Rome and Berlin in search for western support. This time, he sought backing for his victory plan. But the odds now are clearly stacked against Ukraine on the battlefield. And Zelensky also faces an uphill struggle on the diplomatic front.

    The initial plan for Zelensky and his allies had been to convene at a meeting of the Ramstein group. This is the loose configuration of some 50 countries who have supported Ukraine’s defence efforts since the start of the full-scale Russian aggression in February 2022.

    With the US president, Joe Biden, scheduled to attend after a state visit to Germany, the gathering at Ramstein Air Base in Germany had been pitched at the level of heads of state and government. It was expected that there were to be some big announcements of continuing support for Ukraine.

    The world is watching the US election campaign unfolding. Sign up to join us at a special Conversation event on October 17. Expert panellists will discuss with the audience the upcoming election and its possible fallout.

    But with hurricane Milton scheduled to hit Florida, Biden was forced to cancel his trip. While Biden’s visit to Germany has apparently been rescheduled for October 18, 2024, the Ramstein meeting remains postponed.

    This has deprived the Ukrainian president of the chance to pitch his victory plan to his more important allies. So he has been unable to get them to commit to the support that will be necessary to implement it.

    We don’t yet know much about the Ukrainian victory plan. From what has been released or leaked, it appears to boil down to five key demands.

    Zelensky wants an accelerated path to Nato membership. He is also asking for a Nato-enforced no-fly zone over western Ukraine and more air-defence systems for the country to better protect its own skies.

    Other key elements of the plan involve permission to use western-supplied long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia, the delivery of long-range German Taurus ballistic missiles and significant investment into Ukraine’s defence industry.

    Most of these demands are non-starters in western capitals. That much was already made clear during Zelensky’s recent trip to New York and Washington in mid-September.

    The Ukrainian president managed to get his US counterpart to authorise US$8 billion (£6.12 billion) in further security assistance. But there has been no progress on lifting the restrictions that the US and other allies are placing on Ukraine’s use of western military aid against Russian territory.

    The western alliance remains divided on this. And the US is particularly sceptical of its strategic value.

    Similarly, the prospect of Ukraine joining Nato continues to be remote – not least as it would require the consent of all 32 current member states. The Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, has openly stated that he will veto Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. His Hungarian counterpart, Victor Orban, is also well known for his opposition to Kyiv joining the alliance.

    More damaging to Ukraine’s Nato aspirations, however, is a similar reluctance in both Washington and Berlin. This has been key in ensuring that the two most recent Nato summits in Vilnius in 2023 and Washington in 2024 only re-affirmed that “Ukraine’s future is in Nato” but failed to attach a clear timeline to it.

    Kyiv’s allies need to double down – now

    At the end of his meeting with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on October 11, Zelensky secured another €1.4 billion (£1.17 billion) worth of air defences, tanks, drones and artillery, to be jointly delivered by Germany, Belgium, Denmark and Norway.

    But Taurus ballistic missiles – top of Kyiv’s shopping list – are not included in this package. While predictable, this was a major disappointment for Zelensky. As was the fact that he essentially walked away empty-handed from his meetings in London, Paris and Rome.

    There is no indication that any of these major allies are likely to withdraw their support. But it is equally clear that they are not prepared to increase it decisively.

    This was also evident during the visit to Kyiv of the new Nato secretary-general, Mark Rutte, on October 3. Rutte travelled to Ukraine within days of assuming the role to reiterate the continuation of the alliance’s support. But as symbolically important as this was, he merely confirmed what had already been agreed rather than announcing anything new.

    The EU did marginally better. On October 10 it was announced the bloc was set to extend the training programme for Ukrainian troops until the end of 2026. The mission was launched in November 2022 and has trained some 60,000 troops to date. That’s about half of all Ukrainian soldiers trained abroad – and three times the number who received training from the US.

    The EU’s overall aid to Ukraine now stands at €162 billion since the beginning of the war in 2022, compared to €84 billion from the US. Two-thirds of US aid is military in nature, and with almost €57 billion to date, it dwarfs the contributions by Germany and the UK, the two next-largest donors with around €10 billion each.

    These are impressive numbers and there can be no doubt that Ukraine would have lost this war long ago without support from its western allies. Yet, the fact is that what Ukraine’s western partners currently provide is barely enough to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, let alone enable Ukraine to implement its victory plan.

    Vladimir Putin has consistently raised his country’s war effort to meet any challenges presented over the course of the conflict. Unless the west doubles down on its support to allow Kyiv to do the same, not only will Ukraine not win this war, it is in serious danger of losing it.

    The high-level meeting planned for Ramstein would have been the opportunity for the west to change gear decisively. Ukraine can only hope that its postponement, rather than outright cancellation, means its allies may yet step up to the plate.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Ukraine faces worsening odds on the battlefield and a struggle on the diplomatic front after Biden postpones summit – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-faces-worsening-odds-on-the-battlefield-and-a-struggle-on-the-diplomatic-front-after-biden-postpones-summit-240805

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sudan’s brutal war has become many wars, making peace even harder to reach

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Willis, Professor of History, Durham University

    A fire in Omdurman market near Khartoum following fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces. Abd Almohimen Sayed / Shutterstock

    Sudan’s war runs grimly on. The two main protagonists (though there are others involved) are each claiming local victories. The Sudanese army appears to be slowly regaining control of the ruined capital, Khartoum, and has recovered some ground it lost elsewhere in Sudan. And the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues its brutal siege of the western city of El Fasher.

    But, while the army seems to have the upper hand at present, neither they nor the RSF looks likely to win outright. Instead, the two sides keep up a mutual battering with ill-aimed barrages of artillery fire and bombs that destroy markets, wreck hospitals, and each day add to the grim toll of civilian death and misery.

    Abdel-Fattah al Burhan, the general who seized power and derailed what was supposed to be a transition to civilian rule after the revolution of 2019, still insists he is the head of Sudan’s legitimate government, and that the army will win the war.

    The RSF’s leader, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who is referred to as Hemedti, had initially been willing to play deputy to Burhan, but is now his bitter enemy. He makes a show of being willing to negotiate, but relentlessly pursues a military victory.

    It is tempting to point the finger at actors outside Sudan for their part in the spiralling violence. There are multiple credible allegations that the governments of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and Russia have all helped arm or finance one side or other in pursuit of regional influence or economic gain. Libya’s eastern – but not internationally recognised – government has also been accused of complicity.

    Some would say there are sins of omission as well as commission. The US, EU and others have all called for an end to this war. But they could be doing more to stop the flow of weapons and money that helps keep the fighting going, and to mobilise more concerted action to protect civilians.

    The world stands accused of turning its back on Sudan, despite being its biggest hunger and displacement crisis. But external actors did not start the war, and they cannot simply end it.

    Despite their common cause in a counter-revolutionary coup in 2021, the war started when Burhan and Hemedti fell out over who would have military and political primacy – and the associated economic benefits – in Sudan.

    They’ve already decided the country isn’t big enough for the both of them, so it’s nigh-on impossible to negotiate the usual kind of deal that shares power between foes.

    Burhan is intensely sensitive about the fragile sovereignty of his government, and views external mediation as foreign meddling. He has always insisted that the army can win an outright victory, and now he is encouraged by recent gains. Yet he is a long way from regaining control of the whole country.

    Hemedti, who craves the status that would come from negotiations, makes grandiloquent offers of ceasefires, coupled with promises to respect human rights – all while the RSF continues to murder, rape and loot. Hubris and hypocrisy make poor bases for negotiation.

    A precarious balancing act

    This is also not a war simply being waged between two individuals. Neither the army nor the RSF are coherent or well disciplined – the RSF, in particular, is a messy constellation of armed men, mostly from western Sudan (and, allegedly, further afield). They share a distinctive style of camouflage dress and a sense of long-term exclusion, but are not under close or effective control.

    The army has more formal structures – too many, perhaps – but these are also fragmented. Strong on generals and air firepower but weak on fighting forces, the army is adapting the government’s old playbook of mobilising local militias.

    The war has become several wars, drawing in other armed groups whose alliances with either the army or the RSF are contingent or opportunistic.

    Since independence in 1956, Sudan has mostly been a militarised state, where power was won by force. Those who ruled it feared their fellow soldiers and so created alternative forces, hoping these would back them against potential coups. Some of these groups had distinct social bases in particular regions or ethnic groups.

    This fragmentation had been happening since the 1970s, but it became endemic during the long reign of Sudan’s former president, Omar al-Bashir. Bashir stayed in power for 30 years by dividing possible rivals within the ruling elite, and used the multiplying, competing arms of the “security forces” to fight rebels on the margins.

    What seemed like a powerful, authoritarian system was, in fact, a brutal but precarious balancing act. After Bashir fell in 2019, the transitional government floundered. The soldiers seized power, then the complex rivalries and institutional fragmentation proved unsustainable. The core institutions that held Sudan together have shattered.

    So who, if anyone, can put Sudan back together again? Burhan and Hemedti are in no mood, and may anyway lack the control of their followers needed for any deal to stick.

    Civilian politicians were discredited by the bickering of the transition, and the most prominent of them seem confused between claiming to be a government-in-exile or trying to build a bigger anti-war coalition.

    At present, Sudan faces either the long-term absence of central authority or, more dramatically, an effective division into two or more states, whether or not these are internationally recognised. Some might say we should not mourn this – Sudan was a colonial creation, made by violence and predation. But this is an outcome that may only increase misery and misrule.

    However, there is still resistance amid the ruination. Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy, as envisaged by the UN and others, is long dead. But in some vital ways, the popular revolution that toppled Bashir lives on.

    Grassroots emergency response rooms organise whatever lifesaving support for desperate communities that they can. And women and youth – the revolution’s vanguard – continue to organise, agitate and debate Sudan’s future among themselves, as well as demand a role in making it. They deserve our solidarity.

    Many, both Sudanese and non-Sudanese, refuse to let go of the idea of a better Sudan that has never yet been realised, but just might rise up from these ashes.

    Sharath Srinivasan is a Fellow and Trustee of the Rift Valley Institute.

    Justin Willis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan’s brutal war has become many wars, making peace even harder to reach – https://theconversation.com/sudans-brutal-war-has-become-many-wars-making-peace-even-harder-to-reach-240585

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nobel economics prize: how colonial history explains why strong institutions are vital to a country’s prosperity – expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    This year’s Nobel memorial prize in economics has gone to Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and James Robinson of the University of Chicago for their work on why there are such vast differences in prosperity between nations.

    While announcing the award, Jakob Svensson, the chairman of the economics prize committee, said: “Reducing the huge differences in income between countries is one of our times’ greatest challenges”. The economists’ “groundbreaking research” has given us a “much deeper understanding of the root causes of why countries fail or succeed.”

    The award, which was established several decades after the original Nobel prizes in the 1960s, is technically known as the Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences. The academics will share the award and its 11 million kroner (£810,000) cash prize.

    To explain their work and why it matters, we talked to Renaud Foucart, a senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University in the UK.

    What did Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson win for?

    The three academics won the prize mostly for providing causal evidence of the influence of the quality of a country’s institutions on its economic prosperity.

    At first glance, this may seem like reinventing the wheel. Most people would agree that a country that enforces property rights, limits corruption, and protects both the rule of law and the balance of power, will also be more successful at encouraging its citizens to create wealth, and be better at redistributing it.

    But anyone following the news in Turkey, Hungary, the US or even the UK, will be aware that not everyone agrees. In Hungary for instance, cases of corruption, nepotism, a lack of media pluralism, and threats to the independence of the judiciary have led to a fierce battle with the European Union.

    Rich countries typically have strong institutions. But several (wannabe) leaders are perfectly comfortable with weakening the rule of law. They do not seem to see institutions as the cause of their prosperity, just as something that happens to be correlated.

    In their view, why does the quality of institutions vary across countries?

    Their work starts with something that has clearly not had a direct effect on today’s economic prosperity: living conditions at the start of European colonialism in the 14th century. Their hypothesis is that, the richer and the more inhospitable to outsiders a place was, the more colonial powers were interested in brutally stealing the country’s riches.

    In that case, they built institutions without any regard for the people living there. This led to low quality institutions during the colonial period, that continued through independence and led to bad economic conditions today.

    All of this is because – and this is another domain to which this year’s laureates contributed – institutions create the conditions of their own persistence.

    In contrast, in more hospitable and less developed places, colonialists did not take resources. They instead settled and tried to create wealth. So, it was in their (selfish) interest to build democratic institutions that benefited people living there.

    The researchers then tested their hypothesis by looking at historical data. First, they found a “great reversal” of fortune. Places that were the most urbanised and densely populated in 1500 became the poorest by 1995. Second, they found that places where settlers died quickly from disease and could therefore not stay – while local populations were mostly immune – are also poorer today.

    Looking at the colonial roots of institutions is an attempt to disentangle causes and consequences. It is also perhaps the main reason why the committee would say that even if this year’s laureates did not invent the idea that institutions matter, their contribution is worthy of the highest distinction.

    Some have suggested the work simply argues ‘democracy means economic growth’. Is this true?

    Not in a vacuum. For instance, their work does not tell us that imposing democracy from scratch on a country with otherwise malfunctioning institutions will work. There is no reason for a democratic leader not to become corrupt.

    Institutions are a package. And this is why it is so important to preserve their different aspects today. Weakening even a little bit of the protections the state offers to citizens, workers, entrepreneurs and investors may then lead to a vicious circle where people do not feel safe that they will be defended against corruption or expropriation. And this leads to lower prosperity and more calls for authoritarian rules.

    There may also be outliers. China is clearly trying to push the idea that capitalism without a liberal democracy can be compatible with economic success.

    The growth of China since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1980s coincides with the introduction of stronger property rights for entrepreneurs and businesses. And, in that sense, it is a textbook version of the power of institutions.

    But it is also true that Deng Xiaoping ordered the crushing by the military of the Tiananmen Square protests for democracy in 1989. China today also has a clearly more authoritarian system than western democracies.

    And China is still much poorer than its democratic counterparts, despite being the world’s second-largest economy. China’s GDP per capita is not even a fifth of that of the US, and it is facing major economic challenges of its own.

    Actually, according to Acemoglu, Xi Jinping’s increasingly authoritarian regime is the reason why China’s economy is “rotting from the head”.

    What trajectory are democratic institutions throughout the world currently on?

    Acemoglu has expressed concern that democratic institutions in the US and Europe are losing support from the population. And, indeed, many democracies do seem to be doubting the importance of protecting their institutions.

    They flirt with giving more power to demagogues who claim it is possible to be successful without a strong set of rules that bind the hands of the rulers. I doubt today’s prize will have the slightest influence on them.

    But if there is one message to take home from the work of this year’s laureates, it is that voters should be cautious not to throw the baby of economic prosperity with the bathwater of the sometimes frustrating rules that sustain it.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nobel economics prize: how colonial history explains why strong institutions are vital to a country’s prosperity – expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/nobel-economics-prize-how-colonial-history-explains-why-strong-institutions-are-vital-to-a-countrys-prosperity-expert-qanda-241305

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How AI can help you make a computer game without knowing anything about coding

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Zhou Hao, School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Leicester

    Even kids can do it. Lassedesignen

    Just as calculators took over the tedious number-crunching in maths a few decades ago, artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming coding. Take Kyo, an eight-year-old boy in Singapore who developed a simple platform game in just two hours, attracting over 500,000 players.

    Using nothing but simple instructions in English, Kyo brought his vision to life leveraging the coding app Cursor and also Claude, a general purpose AI. Although his dad is a coder, Kyo didn’t get any help from him to design the game and has no formal coding education himself. He went on to build another game, an animation app, a drawing app and a chatbot, taking about two hours for each.

    This shows how AI is dramatically lowering the barrier to software development, bridging the gap between creativity and technical skill. Among the range of apps and platforms dedicated to this purpose, others include Google’s AlphaCode 2 and Replit’s Ghostwriter.

    In another example of the power of these apps, an eight-year-old American girl called Fay built a chatbot that purported to be Harry Potter. She had it up and running in just 45 minutes, at which point it asked if she had heard the rumours about the Deathly Hallows and suggested they discuss it over a butterbeer at the Three Broomsticks.

    For those that already know how to code, numerous AI apps have become incredibly helpful too. At the other extreme from the natural language coding apps described above, tools like Tabnine and GitHub Copilot act as intelligent assistants, predicting and autocompleting code as you type.

    Alternatives such as Sourcery and DeepCode go a step further, offering real-time code cleanup, suggesting improvements and fixing vulnerabilities. New tools are emerging weekly, such as OpenAI’s GPT Canvas, a new GPT version designed to help with sophisticated coding. Many of these tools can also translate code from one programming language to another, say from JavaScript to Python.

    The productivity gains that these tools offer are revolutionising the software industry. As many as 70% of companies have already adopted the likes of GitHub Copilot, with coders reporting that AI is enabling them to write software that is more reliable and bug free.

    By removing the need to spend so many hours ironing out human errors, coders are able to spend more time focusing on higher value tasks such as designing system architecture and collaborating with colleagues.

    It is also changing the game for university educators like myself as we race to keep up. We’ve been having to rethink teaching materials and also assessment methods, wrestling with how exactly to grade a student’s coding in situations where AI tools are doing much of the work.

    Today’s limitations

    As exciting as all this is, AI coding is still in its infancy. At this stage it can only help non-coders to build simple applications or games. It can’t yet oversee big complex IT projects by understanding the big picture in a way that a human coder would.

    It can’t yet invent new ways to solve problems either, and is still more likely to lag in areas like, say, spacecraft navigation that require highly specialised knowledge.

    Many tools also don’t write perfect code: a program will often work but won’t be efficient or secure enough for use in the real world. Similarly, AI tools don’t inherently understand the context of the data they process, so may mishandle sensitive information or perpetuate biases present in the data on which they were trained.

    For all these reasons, in professional situations there’s still a need for a coder to make sure that everything is meeting the necessary standards. No doubt in future we may see AI coding tools designed to handle everything from security issues to highly specialised subject matter. Their ability to help non-coders to build apps will also only improve. For now at least, however, AI coding is still amplifying the skills of coders rather than replacing them altogether.

    How to build your own game

    All the same, it’s incredible what you can do with these tools as a non-coder already. Here’s a quick guide to making a simple platform game:

    Step 1: Sign up for an AI tool: Create an account with, say, Cursor or AlphaCode 2 and follow the setup instructions. Depending on which tool you choose, you may need to do a quick install. You may also need to install a programming language such as Python, as well as a source code editor such as VS Studio Code 2 – the coding platform will keep you right on this.

    Step 2: Start your game: Open a new project in the tool. Into the prompt, type: “Create a simple platform game where the platforms are made of sweet treats”.

    Step 3: See what it’s like: Click “run” or “preview” to see what you’ve created (depending on which system you are using, you may have to do this in the source code editor). You should see platforms made of candy or cakes.

    Step 4: Make some changes: Let’s say we change the main character into a parrot. Simply type into the prompt: “Make the avatar a green parrot”.

    Step 5: Add features: Now type into the prompt: “Let the parrot be controlled by the cursor arrows, insert some sweets for it to collect and add a score counter for how many it has collected”.

    Step 6: Test and tweak: Click “run” or “preview” again to test the updated game. Make changes by typing things like, “Insert a black crow that will chase the parrot around the screen. If the crow touches the parrot, freeze the screen and display a message in the middle of the screen saying ‘Too Bad!!!’”. Keep repeating these steps until you’re happy with the results.

    Step 7: Get it out there: You might now want to share your game with friends or online via an app store. It must be said that AI coders are not yet doing this well, so you may find this trickier without prior knowledge. One option is to deploy the game online via a free platform such as Zeabur, as explained here.

    Daniel Zhou Hao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How AI can help you make a computer game without knowing anything about coding – https://theconversation.com/how-ai-can-help-you-make-a-computer-game-without-knowing-anything-about-coding-240584

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why autumn 2024 is your best chance to see lots of weird and wonderful fungi

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rowena Hill, Postdoctoral Researcher in Mycology, Earlham Institute

    Parrot waxcaps fruit in autumn across northern Europe. Dan Molter/Wikipedia, CC BY

    The UK and north-western Europe have had a particularly wet 2024. Extreme weather patterns caused by climate change are nothing to celebrate, but there is one group of organisms that will have appreciated all the rain.

    Numerous languages have a saying to the effect of “growing like mushrooms after the rain”. Indeed, rainfall across the year is a major factor in the prevalence of mushrooms. These are the short-lived structures we see poking above the soil that fungi use for reproduction. The rest of the fungus is actually there all the time, growing within the soil in a web of filaments known as mycelium.

    Similar to the way plants spread their offspring via seeds, fungi produce mushrooms to release spores that can be carried on the wind or spread by animals. As with any organism’s reproduction, it costs the fungus a lot of energy to make mushrooms, so its decision to make this investment will be attuned to when it is likely to have the best chance of success.

    Spores need moisture to germinate, and it generally helps if it’s not too cold. Autumn in the temperate climate found across much of Europe usually provides these conditions in abundance. Add in a mild, wet summer to get things started and that’s why we’re probably looking at a bumper autumn for wild mushrooms in 2024.

    Do the seasons feel increasingly weird to you? You’re not alone. Climate change is distorting nature’s calendar, causing plants to flower early and animals to emerge at the wrong time.

    This article is part of a series, Wild Seasons, on how the seasons are changing – and what they may eventually look like.

    How to make the most of it

    Some of the most prized gourmet mushrooms can be foraged in autumn, like chanterelles or porcini. When done responsibly, it’s a great hobby. But foragers beware: there has been an influx of mushroom identification books written by generative-AI and riddled with (potentially deadly) errors, so always get information about edible mushrooms from a safe and reliable source.

    Chanterelle mushrooms are edible (and delicious).
    lzf/Shutterstock

    If you ever feel tempted to pick something without being certain what it is, remember the adage: “there are old mushroom hunters and there are bold mushroom hunters, but there are no old bold mushroom hunters”. Never munch on a hunch.

    Autumn is the most productive season for mushrooms in temperate regions, though spring is fruitful too; St George’s mushroom was named for its tendency to appear around April 23. It’s also not only mushroom-forming fungi that have these seasonal and weather-driven patterns. Cases of a nasty lung infection called valley fever in the south-western US are caused by the microscopic Coccidioides soil fungi. They peak in the autumn, with particular surges in years following wet winters.



    Read more:
    Fungal infections known as valley fever could spike this fall – 3 epidemiologists explain how to protect yourself

    Considering fungi are so dependent on weather and temperature, it’s not surprising that the timing and overall length of mushroom production is being affected by climate change. This mirrors the shifts in seasonal patterns for plants and animals.

    While an extended mushroom season could sound like good news to foragers, unfortunately, changing conditions may make fungal diseases like valley fever a bigger problem. And as extreme floods become more common, exposure to mould fungi will probably become a more pressing health issue in homes.

    Mushrooms are full of water, so wet autumn weather tends to favour fungi.
    Sergei Kochetov/Shutterstock

    Fungi aren’t just rain-lovers, though, they’re actually also rain-makers. Spores released into the atmosphere from fungi can act as a surface on which moisture in the air can form water droplets, and when this happens on a large scale it can contribute to the formation of clouds.

    This is just one example of the many underappreciated ways that fungi support our environment. Come rain or shine, I hope that you have the opportunity to get out into nature this autumn and enjoy the fungi.

    Rowena Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why autumn 2024 is your best chance to see lots of weird and wonderful fungi – https://theconversation.com/why-autumn-2024-is-your-best-chance-to-see-lots-of-weird-and-wonderful-fungi-240280

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to make sure the budget secures the investment Britain needs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics/Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    Growth won’t happen without greater investment. I Wei Huang/Shutterstock

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “rip out the bureaucracy that blocks investment” in the UK. He was speaking at his government’s first international investment summit, an attempt to encourage the finance and business worlds to put more money into the country.

    But the government will need much more investment – by both the private and public sectors – than can be drummed up with one summit and an intent to slash red tape if it is to meet its economic goals. So Labour’s upcoming first budget on October 30 presents a vital opportunity to lay the foundations for an investment boost over the coming years.

    A major, long-term aim is to get the UK’s annual growth back to its pre-2008 banking crisis rate, when it was around 2% a year. The UK has been growing at about half that rate since then.

    This slower economic growth has damaged people’s living standards as well as the tax receipts the government needs to fund public services, particularly since the pressures of the COVID pandemic.

    Slow growth could be turned around by increasing investment in things like infrastructure. The UK has lagged behind comparable economies in this regard – it has had the lowest rate of investment in the G7 group of major economies for 24 of the last 30 years.

    Last year, the UK’s GDP per capita (a measure of the average income) was nearly £11,000 lower than it would have been had the economy continued to grow at its pre-2008 rate.

    Rather unusually, despite the UK’s debt recently reaching 100% of GDP – the highest amount in more than half a century – the usually fiscally conservative International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the UK should consider focusing on investment. This, it says, could potentially boost GDP growth and thus stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio.

    And the UK’s spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), believes it is possible to raise economic growth through more investment. The OBR estimates that a sustained 1% of GDP increase in public investment could increase the level of potential national output by just under 0.5% after five years, and around 2.5% in 50 years.

    So, there will undoubtedly be a number of investment measures in the Budget. But how many depends, in part, on whether the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, revises some restrictions on borrowing, known as the fiscal rules. There could be adjustments such as offsetting government debt with its assets, including student loans. Reeves is reportedly looking at this possibility – which could create as much as £50 billion of additional fiscal headroom.



    Read more:
    The chancellor has tied her own hands with her fiscal rules – here’s why she should change them

    She could also re-institute the previous Labour government’s golden rule: only borrow to invest. This could separate out capital investment (spending on things like roads and other infrastructure), which is needed to support long-term growth, from day-to-day spending on public services. It would also increase the transparency of what the borrowing is for, and whether it can deliver growth that can help stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio.

    These changes would prevent public investment from being cut in order to meet one of the current fiscal rules Reeves is adhering to. That is, that debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP over a rolling five-year period. As it stands, this rule restricts how much Reeves can borrow – even if that is what the country needs to grow economically.

    A change to this rule could help the government fund its two new initiatives to promote public investment: the National Wealth Fund, which requires just over £7 billion over the parliament, and GB Energy, which needs about £8 billion.

    Convincing investors

    Investments in the National Wealth Fund and GB Energy could further raise economic growth by “crowding in” private investment. For example, investing in infrastructure like a road entices private firms to invest too, perhaps in new premises or more staff, because a better transport link will make these firms’ investments more profitable.

    The government’s aim is to bring in three times the public investment in the National Wealth Fund to invest in infrastructure and key sectors. GB Energy likewise intends to bring in private investors to support the green transition that can generate new output and jobs.

    But targeting growth will take more than just finding the money. It also requires a regulatory approach and planning system that generates confidence among private investors to put their money in alongside the government.

    The impending Budget won’t set out all of the details that investors are looking for, but they will expect to see the growth strategy and assess whether it is credible. For instance, successive governments have struggled with planning reform, so investors will be justified in wondering what will be different this time.

    Rachel Reeves could potentially give herself an extra £50 billion to spend if she changes the fiscal rules.
    Fred Duval/Shutterstock

    Investors will also be on the lookout for a more certain regulatory regime over several years. The main impediments to investment tend to be uncertainty, including over regulation and planning, as well as being able to find workers with the right skills. This Budget is an opportunity to set out what the government plans to do in both areas over its five-year parliament.

    One positive signal to investors would be if the Budget sets out a broad definition of “capital”. For physical capital like a factory to be properly used, it requires people (human capital). And we hear a lot about green assets and digital assets, which essentially means that capital can be physical, human or green, as well as digital.

    By outlining its policies around infrastructure and skills, as well as its environmental and digital policies, any proposed growth strategy would be more holistic and likelier to have a positive impact on growth.

    But the difference between a strategy and a great strategy is in its execution. The Budget will almost certainly set out various fiscal policies to support growth. But the ability to deliver this strategy will determine whether it is truly a budget for growth.

    Linda Yueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to make sure the budget secures the investment Britain needs – https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-sure-the-budget-secures-the-investment-britain-needs-241074

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Han Kang: translators share memories of working with the winner of the Nobel prize in literature

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Duncan Large, Professor of European Literature and Translation; Executive Director, British Centre for Literary Translation, University of East Anglia

    Han Kang, the South Korean winner of the 2024 Nobel prize in literature, made her breakthrough in the English-speaking world with her first translated novel (her third in Korean), The Vegetarian. Published in English in 2015, it was an immediate success, making the Evening Standard bestseller list. It went on to win the Man Booker international prize the following year for Han and her young English translator, Deborah Smith.

    In the summer of 2015, Han spent a week at the University of East Anglia (UEA) where she was the resident author for the Korean-English literary translation workshop at the annual summer school of the British Centre for Literary Translation (BCLT). She was already a prize-winning writer in Korea and had recently published the controversial novel that Smith would go on to translate as Human Acts.

    As part of the summer school in July 2015, Deborah Smith led a workshop with Han for six emerging translators of Korean, sponsored by the Literature Translation Institute of Korea. Han later commented that the event as a whole was “on a larger scale and more intensive than any other translation program I had previously heard about or experienced”.

    It was already clear that Han was a major figure, and the power of her writing was reinforced by the quiet authority of her presence. For workshop participant Roxanne Edmunds: “The great thing about the workshops was that we were able to work on the translation with the author. It was a little intimidating at first, but Han put us at ease with her enthusiasm.”

    Fellow participant (and subsequently Korea Times translation prizewinner) Sophie Bowman told me:

    I remember that in the workshop we spent an hour or so moving around a comma, adding it to the sentence, taking it out. And spent a long time discussing the colour and feel and look of a cardigan one of the characters wore and how it signified. I was quite amazed at how we could do this in all seriousness – labouring over such details (not even there on the page), when I had been working until then on tight deadlines and weekly translation quotas. But Han’s work stood up to that scrutiny and expansive kind of reading.

    Victoria Caudle, another of the workshop participants and now a doctoral candidate at UCLA, added:

    Working with Han, I experienced a writer who respected translation as its own process of writing. She was fascinated by how we would agonise over how to express the slightest movement or smallest image in the text. Overall, I remember how generous she was, how softly she spoke and how strong her words were.

    After a week of intensive discussion, the group produced a translated extract from Han’s short story Europa that was barely a page in length, but the value of such activities always lies at least as much in the process as in the product.

    The workshop culminated in a joint reading of the translated text as part of the Summer School’s finale at Dragon Hall in Norwich, the beautiful medieval home of BCLT’s partner the National Centre for Writing.

    Bowman and Caudle went on to found the Smoking Tigers, a Korean-English literary translator collective, together with several other alumni. Buoyed by the success of her translation of The Vegetarian, Smith founded Tilted Axis Press, which in turn won the International Booker prize in 2022 for Tomb of Sand, written by Geetanjali Shree and translated from the Hindi by Daisy Rockwell.

    In response to Han’s Nobel win, the president of the Literature Translation Institute of Korea, Sooyoung Chon, remarked: “Han Kang’s Nobel prize in literature is a pivotal moment that highlights LTI Korea’s efforts to introduce Korean literature to the world.” BCLT has continued to collaborate closely with LTI Korea on several other summer school workshops, but the inaugural 2015 edition has proved particularly consequential.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Duncan Large works for the British Centre for Literary Translation at the University of East Anglia, which received funding from the Literature Translation Institute of Korea for its 2015 Summer School.

    – ref. Han Kang: translators share memories of working with the winner of the Nobel prize in literature – https://theconversation.com/han-kang-translators-share-memories-of-working-with-the-winner-of-the-nobel-prize-in-literature-241299

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why some women are taking a cold remedy to help them get pregnant – and what the evidence says

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Watkins, Assistant Professor, Reproductive Biology, University of Nottingham

    Prostock studio/Shutterstock

    The desire to have our own biological children is hard-wired into many of us. And the desire is often felt more keenly in those struggling with infertility. So the promise of a simple solution is hard to ignore – which may be why “the Mucinex method” is trending on social media.

    Many women on TikTok are attributing successful conception to their use of the widely available cough and cold medicine Mucinex – or similar over-the-counter decongestant medicines containing the active ingredient guaifenesin.

    Why would a medicine designed to relieve cough and cold symptoms help women get pregnant? During unprotected sexual intercourse, sperm are deposited at the top of the vagina. To reach and fertilise the egg, the sperm must first traverse the cervix, a small canal that connects the vagina and the womb.

    The cervix plays a critical role in regulating the passage of sperm through its production of cervical mucus. During a woman’s menstrual cycle, the quantity and consistency of the cervical mucus changes, becoming optimal around the time of ovulation.

    If there is too much mucus, or it is too thick, it can stop the sperm from reaching the egg. So, the idea goes that by taking Mucinex, a woman would thin her cervical mucus and make it easier for the sperm to reach the egg.

    The rising popularity of fertility tracking apps has increased awareness of signs of the fertile window among users, including through monitoring of cervical mucus quantity and consistency. Once familiar with their individual signs, it follows that women who are trying or, indeed, struggling to conceive might start considering how to optimise their chances of conception in any given cycle.

    A simple over-the-counter product such as Mucinex could well seem like a quick and simple solution with potentially more rapid results than dieting or a change in other lifestyle factors.

    Not surprisingly, questions are being asked over the validity of taking Mucinex, or other guaifenesin-containing medicines, as fertility aids.

    The fact is, there is scant scientific evidence proving that Mucinex can help with fertility. The most cited scientific study is from 1982 and was published in the journal Fertility and Sterility. Here, scientists studied 40 couples whose infertility was defined as being a “cervical issue”.

    The women in the study were given 200mg of guaifenesin, three times a day starting on the fifth day of their menstrual cycle. By the end of the study, 15 out of the 40 couples had become pregnant, which some may see as supporting the use of guaifenesin.

    However, as there was no group that didn’t take guaifenesin (a control group), it is not possible to attribute these pregnancies solely to guaifenesin.

    In a separate case study, a man took 600mg of guaifenesin, twice a day, for two months. The study reported a dramatic increase in sperm production and motility. However, as this study was conducted on a single 32-year-old man, the researchers could not confirm that guaifenesin was the cause of the change.

    It should be noted that Reckitt, the makers of Mucinex, said in a statement that Mucinex should “only be used as intended in line with label directions”. And that taking Mucinex for infertility “constitutes off-label use”.

    Is there any harm in taking guaifenesin to conceive?

    While no associations between guaifenesin and birth defects have been identified, there is still no solid data on how guaifenesin might affect embryo development.

    For those seeking to become parents, the idea of boosting your chances with a widely available medication is understandably enticing. However, there is not enough evidence to support taking guaifenesin to improve fertility.

    There are a range of other simple, lifestyle changes that have been shown to help with getting pregnant. These include maintaining a healthy weight and diet, reducing alcohol intake, giving up smoking and lowering stress. For those experiencing difficulties in becoming pregnant, the best, and possibly simplest advice is to talk to your doctor.

    Adam Watkins receives funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council under grant BB/V006711/1.

    Emma Lucas is a council member of the Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

    – ref. Why some women are taking a cold remedy to help them get pregnant – and what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/why-some-women-are-taking-a-cold-remedy-to-help-them-get-pregnant-and-what-the-evidence-says-241233

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We’ve bred corals to better tolerate lethal heatwaves, but rapid climate action is still needed to save reefs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liam Lachs, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Change Ecology and Evolution, Newcastle University

    The authors working in their ‘coral nursery’ in the Pacific. Liam Lachs

    Our research group has bred corals able to better survive marine heatwaves. Our work, now published in Nature Communications, shows that it is possible to improve coral heat tolerance even within a single generation.

    We did this using selective breeding: a technique used by humans for thousands of years to produce animals and plants with desirable characteristics. Selective breeding is how humans turned wolf-like dogs into St Bernards, chihuahuas and everything in between.

    Now, selective breeding is being considered as a tool for nature conservation, particularly for coral reefs. The Coralassist Lab (of which we are part) and the Palau International Coral Reef Center have been working on coral heatwave survival specifically. Our latest results are the culmination of seven years’ work.

    Marine heatwaves trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality, with 2023-2024 declared as the fourth global mass bleaching event. Assisted evolution methods — like selective breeding — aim to boost natural adaptation to buy time for corals under climate change.

    Yet the improvement in heat tolerance in our selectively bred corals was modest compared to the intensity of marine heatwaves expected in the future. While selective breeding is feasible, it is likely not a panacea. We’ll still need to tackle the cause of mass coral bleaching by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate warming and give assisted evolution programmes time to take effect.

    How to breed corals for heat tolerance

    The first step was to determine the heat tolerance of many potential parent corals on the reef. Then, we chose specific individuals to breed two separate families of offspring, selected for either high or low heat tolerance. We reared these offspring for three to four years until they reached reproductive maturity, and then tested their heat tolerance.

    Some of the selectively-bred coral at the nursery in the Pacific island nation Palau.
    Jesse Alpert

    We conducted selective breeding trials for two different traits, either the tolerance to a short, intense heat exposure (temperatures 3.5°C above normal for ten days) or a less intense but long-term exposure more typical of natural marine heatwaves (2.5°C above average for a month). This enabled us to estimate the heritability of each trait, the response to selective breeding, and whether both traits have a shared genetic basis.

    Selecting parents for high- rather than low-heat tolerance enhanced the tolerance of their adult offspring for both traits tested.

    a) Overview of the experimental design and examples of (b) Acropora digitifera parents and (c) their offspring at the nursery in Palau.
    Coralassist lab

    Heritability was roughly 0.2 to 0.3 on a scale of 0 to 1, which means about a quarter of the variability in offspring heat tolerance was due to genes passed from their parents. In other words, these traits have a substantial genetic basis on which natural and artificial selection can act.

    We measure cumulative heat stress and tolerance in terms of degree-heating weeks (°C-weeks), which reflects both how hot it gets and for how long. Given the trait variability identified in these particular corals, heat tolerance could in theory be enhanced by about 1°C-week within one generation.

    However, even this level of enhancement may not be enough to keep pace with ever more intense heatwaves. Depending on climate action, the intensity of heatwaves is expected to rise in the coming decades by around 3°C-weeks per decade, faster than the enhancement achieved in our study.

    Interestingly, corals selectively bred for high- rather than low, short-stress tolerance were no better at surviving the long heat stress exposure. With no genetic correlation detected, it is plausible that these traits are driven by independent sets of genes, and corals that are good at surviving the short sharp heat stress aren’t necessarily the best at surviving longer term marine heatwaves.

    This would have important implications, as work like this would benefit from cheap and rapid tests that can effectively identify heat tolerant colonies for breeding. However, if these tests can’t predict which coral colonies will survive month-long heatwaves, it presents a serious challenge.

    Coral fragments during a long-term simulated marine heatwave, with some remaining relatively healthy throughout (upper) and others bleaching (lower) or dying (not shown).
    Liam Lachs

    Scaling up selective breeding

    Since it is possible to selectively breed corals for increased heat tolerance, the next step is to conduct large-scale trials in the wild. This will likely require considerable numbers of selectively bred corals to be deployed, perhaps by directly seeding coral larvae on reefs, or planting corals reared in an aquaculture facility.

    For this to work, outplanted corals must become reproductive themselves and contribute to the wild population gene pool. Doing this at very large scales will be challenging, but it may not be necessary to replenish the coral coverage of large areas.

    Instead, it may be sufficient to create a network of fewer strategically located larval production hubs, containing selectively bred corals at high densities to maximise fertilisation success. These hubs would serve to seed other reefs and could provide further broodstock for targeted actions.

    A lot more research and development is still needed, with many critical questions remaining unanswered. How many corals need to be outplanted to have the desired effect? Can we ensure there are no trade-offs that could compromise populations (evidence so far suggests this is not a large risk)? How can we avoid dilution of selected traits once added to the wild? How can we maximise responses to selection?

    Given the pace of ocean warming, optimisation and implementation of assisted evolution will need to happen soon for them to have a chance at success, even if only on small scales. Above all, the survival of coral reefs still depends on urgent climate action.

    Liam Lachs received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council ONE Planet Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007512/1).

    James Guest received funding from European Research Council Horizon 2020 project CORALASSIST (725848). He is affiliated with SECORE International as a science advisory board member.

    Adriana Humanes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. We’ve bred corals to better tolerate lethal heatwaves, but rapid climate action is still needed to save reefs – https://theconversation.com/weve-bred-corals-to-better-tolerate-lethal-heatwaves-but-rapid-climate-action-is-still-needed-to-save-reefs-241298

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The AI sexbot industry is just getting started. It brings strange new questions – and risks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raffaele F Ciriello, Senior Lecturer in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney

    DALL-E via Shutterstock

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is getting personal. Chatbots are designed to imitate human interactions, and the rise of realistic voice chat is leading many users to form emotional attachments or laugh along with virtual podcast hosts.

    And that’s before we get to the really intimate stuff. Research has shown that sexual roleplaying is one of the most common uses of ChatGPT, and millions of people interact with AI-powered systems designed as virtual companions, such as such as Character.AI, Replika, and Chai.AI.

    What does this mean for the future of (human) romance? The prospects are alarming.

    Better be nice to your AI overlord

    The most prominent AI companion service is Replika, which allows some 30 million users to create custom digital girlfriends (or boyfriends).

    While early studies indicate most Replika users are male, Caucasian and under 30, other demographics are catching up. Male sex robots have been in the making for some years. And they’re more than just vibrators with integrated jar openers.

    For a subscription fee, users can exchange intimate messages or pictures with their AI partners. Over half a million users had subscribed before Replika temporarily disabled its “erotic roleplay” module in early 2023, fearing regulatory backlash — a move that users dubbed “The Lobotomy.”

    The Replika “lobotomy” highlights a key feature of virtual companions: their creators have complete control over their behaviour. The makers of apps can modify or shut down a user’s “partner” – and millions of others – at any moment. These systems also read everything users say, to tailor future interactions and, of course, ads.

    AI is coming to the physical sexbot industry too.
    Shutterstock

    However, these caveats don’t appear to be holding the industry back. New products are proliferating. One company, Kindroid, now offers voice chats with up to ten virtual companions simultaneously.

    The digital world isn’t the limit either. Sex doll vendors such as Joy Love Dolls offer interactive real-life sexbots, with not only customisable skin colour and breast size, but also “complete control” of features including movement, heating, and AI-enabled “moans, squeals, and even flirting from your doll, making her a great companion”.

    For now, virtual companions and AI sexbots remain a much smaller market than social media, with millions of users rather than billions. But as the history of the likes of Facebook, Google and Amazon has taught us, today’s digital quirks could become tomorrow’s global giants.

    Towards ethically sourced AI girlfriends?

    The availability of AI-driven relationships is likely to usher in all manner of ethically dubious behaviour from users who won’t have to face the real-world consequences.

    Soon, you might satisfy any kink with your AI girlfriend for an extra fee. If your AI wife becomes troublesome, just ask the corporate overlord to deactivate her envy module — for a price, of course. Or simply delete her and start fresh with as many AI mistresses as you like in parallel.

    The way people form relationships has already been disrupted by dating apps such as Tinder and Bumble.

    What will happen if, in the future, people looking for love are competing against perfect synthetic lovers that are always available and horny? Well, at least they’ll be able to create virtual replicas of those hot dates they didn’t land.

    And for those who lack the skills to create their own virtual companions, there will be plenty of off-the-shelf alternatives.

    An ABC investigation revealed the use of generative AI to create fake influencers by manipulating women’s social media images is already widespread. This is generally done without consent to sell pornographic content. Much of this content depicts unattainable body ideals, and some depicts people who appear to be at best barely of consenting age.

    Another likely application? Using AI sexbot technology to bring celebrities such as Marilyn Monroe and Clara Bow back to life. After all, dead people cannot deny consent anymore.

    Replika itself was inspired by its founder’s desire to recreate her late best friend through a chatbot. Many use the app to keep deceased loved ones around. What a time to be alive (or dead)!

    The potential for emotional manipulation by inventive catfishers and dictators is alarming. Imagine the havoc if figures like Russia’s Vladimir Putin or North Korea’s Kim Jong-un harness this technology to complement their nations’ already extensive cyber-espionage operations.

    Perhaps before long we will see corporations offering “responsibly sourced” AI girlfriends for the more ethical consumer – organically grown from consensually harvested content, promoting socially acceptable smut.

    Society and the state must act now

    With loneliness rising to epidemic levels — surveys suggest up to one in four people in OECD countries lack human connection — the demand for sexbots is only going to grow. Corporations will meet this demand unless society and the state set clear boundaries on what’s acceptable.

    Sex and technology have always co-evolved. Just as prostitution is “the oldest profession”, porn sites are some of the oldest corners of the internet. However, the dystopian potential of sexbots for mass-customised, corporate-controlled monetisation of our most intimate sphere is unprecedented.

    Users aren’t entirely blameless, either. There’s something vicious about replacing a real human being with a totally submissive lust machine.

    Early studies suggest narcissism is prevalent among users of this technology. Normalising harmful sexual behaviours such as rape, sadism or paedophilia is bad news for society.

    However, going after users isn’t likely to be the best way to tackle the issue. We should treat sexbot use like other potentially problematic behaviours, such as gambling.

    As with other problematic behaviours where the issue lies more with providers than users, it’s time to hold sexbot providers accountable. As our links to AI are growing ever more intimate, there’s not much time to waste.

    Raffaele F Ciriello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The AI sexbot industry is just getting started. It brings strange new questions – and risks – https://theconversation.com/the-ai-sexbot-industry-is-just-getting-started-it-brings-strange-new-questions-and-risks-238998

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –