Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Voice defeat set us all back. And since then, our leaders have given up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Blackwell, Research Fellow (Indigenous Diplomacy), Australian National University

    It’s one year since the failed referendum to enshrine a First Nations Voice to Parliament in the Australian Constitution.

    The vote represents a moment of deep sadness and frustration for many First Nations people for the lost opportunity to move towards meaningful change in our lives, communities and for our futures. Many elders and old people will likely not live to see change.

    I was one of the many people in the Uluru Dialogue at UNSW who worked last year across the country educating on and advocating for the constitutional change. I spoke to communities across New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, from Boorowa to Melbourne.

    I not only saw the campaign first-hand, I also have read every think piece imaginable in the 12 months since about why the referendum failed.

    A ceaseless blame game

    From the expected pieces blaming the usual suspects (Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, Indigenous peoples, the Yes campaign, the No campaign and the media), there were also some weirder supposed culprits.

    Some blamed “wokeness”, Donald Trump and dark money, secret elites, identity politics, and all manner of culture war issues.

    To my mind, no single thing doomed the Voice. It was a mix of a lot of the above.

    Albanese treating the referendum like an election campaign but without the usual level of resourcing and advocacy. The Coalition’s outright opposition to the idea (despite previous indications of support). The media’s failure to grapple with Indigenous issues and dogmatic insistence on giving prominence to “both sides” of the debate.

    The YES23 organisation was also disorganised from the start. Yes campaigners were forced onto the back foot daily by relentless misinformation, seemingly deliberate, from the No campaign.




    Read more:
    Why did the Voice referendum fail? We crunched the data and found 6 reasons


    This built on a distinct lack of civic education among most Australians.

    It was further amplified by the No campaign’s very successful “If you don’t know, vote no” slogan – the idea being that their untruths warranted little scrutiny.

    That’s on top of a large undercurrent of racism that was never properly called out, and which has never been properly addressed.

    Campaigns like this are something we as a nation haven’t come to terms with. We’ve seen in the United States how effective misinformation can be at confusing people, creating false senses of reality and distorting public perception.

    Even if Australians supported the ideas behind the Voice in the abstract, neither they nor the media were prepared for the level of dishonesty and bad dealing from the No campaign. It was never a fair fight.

    No, no, and no again

    The Voice to Parliament represented a consensus plea from Indigenous communities for systemic reform. The idea was that the structure of the Australian political system was, either by design or outcome, causing many of the social and economic issues that we face, and therefore a structural solution was needed.

    The No campaign claimed after the referendum that the result was a rejection of this idea of a Voice to Parliament as a solution to issues in Indigenous communities or among Indigenous peoples more generally, “because it wasn’t going to fix the things that needed to be fixed”.

    Prominent No campaigner Warren Mundine even called the referendum the “most divisive, most racially charged attack on Australia I’ve ever seen”.

    Australia has voted no to the Voice of division”, was the common refrain from people like Pauline Hanson and other No campaigners. Australians “wanted practical solutions” to Indigenous issues, not a body without any detail that wouldn’t hear “real communities”.

    I am not bringing up these issues again to relitigate the issues of the referendum. Instead, I want to ask a very important question: the Voice to Parliament was designed to address our systemic disadvantage, so what solutions to these serious structural issues have any of the No campaigners offered in the past 12 months?




    Read more:
    A royal commission won’t help the abuse of Aboriginal kids. Indigenous-led solutions will


    We have seen some policies from the Coalition. Plans to reduce “fly in, fly out” workers in remote communities. Reforming land rights and native title. A royal commission into child sexual abuse in Indigenous communities. Less need for programs with “a specific Indigenous focus” in urban areas, where most First Nations people live.

    Some of these are just a rehash of failed Coalition policies of the past, as many others have mentioned. Some appear to have come personally from Senator Jacinta Price and are seemingly not backed by experts (or many people in Indigenous communities). Others appear to be tied directly into conservative political talking points, rather than really addressing Indigenous need.

    The Coalition also abandoned its plan for an alternative second referendum almost immediately after the failed vote.

    The Coalition and other leading No campaigners clearly have no plans to address the structural issues facing our peoples. They’re only offering more of the regular policy tinkering and seesawing we have seen far too often before.

    Abandoning the cause

    The same is true of the government. I have already written for this masthead about the government’s abject failures at implementing the Closing the Gap targets and its lack of meaningful consultation.

    The government’s current attempts at Indigenous policy remain exercises in seeking consent over genuine consultation. Its proposed “economic empowerment” agenda for First Nations peoples is a perfect example.

    Aside from the lack of codesign and meaningful engagement, such policies have been bandied about for the better part of two decades and still have not substantively moved the dial.

    The pursuit of market-based wealth for some privileged few First Nations peoples and communities, under the guise of closing the gap, as well as focusing on the overexaggerated benefits of renewable energy as a driver of Indigenous economic power, is not “economic development” for all mobs.

    The policy focus was also announced as Albanese abandoned his commitment to a Makaratta Commission – the Treaty and Truth components that were meant to follow the Voice to Parliament.

    These ideas fall into the same tired policy stereotypes of throwing money at some of the usual organisations and peoples who have long benefited, and claiming this solves the systemic problems we face. The problem isn’t money, it’s the very rules of the game.

    Charting a way forward

    Research following the referendum shows that 87% of Australians think First Nations peoples should be able to decide for ourselves about our way of life. Moreover, 64% think the disadvantages faced by our communities warrant extra government attention, and 68% believe this disadvantage comes from “past race-based policies”.

    Only 35% believe Indigenous peoples are now treated equally to other Australians, and only 37% believe injustices faced by our community are “all in the past”.

    This clearly shows a level of recognition by the Australian people that something needs to be done about Indigenous policy and the structural issues in this country.

    According to the same data, 87% of Australians agree it is “important for First Nations peoples to have a voice/say in matters that affect them”. This jumps to 98.5% among Yes voters, but also is true of 76% of No voters.

    This suggests that Australian people see the problem and can identify the structural issues.

    The real work, then, is on civics education, getting people to understand that the structural issues they can see need structural change; but also making them more aware of the effects of misinformation. It’s not right that proposals that should get the support of the Australian people can be derailed the way this was.

    But what also isn’t right is the current abdication of Indigenous policy by both major parties and their abandonment of any attempt to remedy structural issues. Following the referendum, the major parties have given up.

    To paraphrase myself from February’s Closing the Gap announcement: the next time you run into an MP, ask them what their plan for Indigenous people is. Ask them not just about closing the gap, but to fix the structural issues that so clearly disadvantage our people.

    That’s the question no one wants to answer, but it’s what we need to do if we are to move on from the 2023 referendum in a positive direction.

    James Blackwell is a member of the Uluru Dialogue at UNSW. He is also an Independent Councillor for Hilltops Council in NSW.

    ref. The Voice defeat set us all back. And since then, our leaders have given up – https://theconversation.com/the-voice-defeat-set-us-all-back-and-since-then-our-leaders-have-given-up-239732

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  • MIL-Evening Report: How to look after your mental health right now if you have family in the Middle East or another conflict zone

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Procter, Professor and Chair: Mental Health Nursing, University of South Australia

    Escalating violence in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon in recent weeks, has brought news of death, casualties and displacement.

    In response, the Australian government has organised evacuation flights for Australian citizens and is urging all Australians in Lebanon to take the earliest available flights due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict.

    For the more than 248,000 Australians with Lebanese ancestry, and others, this has been a deeply distressing time.

    Escalating violence in Lebanon has also resonated deeply with other diasporas in Australia, such as those from Palestine and Ukraine. These scattered communities share similar experiences of conflict and displacement.

    So how do Australians with links to Lebanon, Gaza or other conflict zones look after their mental health at this time? And how can you support others who may be struggling?

    Identifying with pain and suffering

    People with emotional ties to conflict zones overseas identify with the pain and suffering they see and hear. Australians with shared cultural heritage may be living in the shadow of homeland events and experiencing what research has calledpush-pull” dynamics.

    This may be experiencing periods of calm and ease mixed with intermittent periods of intense fear, uncertainty and emotional pain as upsetting events unfold.

    For some, sleeplessness, irritability, fear, frustration, uncertainty and emotional exhaustion combine. People are no longer isolated from their country of origin. Rather, global events influence their personal and social life, and mental health.

    The way people manage the interplay between homeland events, sense of powerlessness, and mental health in Australia are complex. It is easy to be rapidly consumed by what is happening. Events are graphic, compelling and fast moving.

    How to look after yourself

    So what can you do if you notice yourself or someone close to you is becoming impacted?

    Know your distress triggers. For some, this might be witnessing violence on television news or social media. For others, this might be stories about children and young people who have been killed. Seeing and hearing images and stories can be distressing if they are repeated across multiple platforms. Some people may need to minimise their media exposure.

    Talk to people you trust about how you are feeling. Describe what is happening and what you notice about yourself. If you are feeling fragile or concerned about your mental health, or the mental health of a loved one, seek support from your health-care provider.

    Reconnect with and strengthen personal support networks. Supportive cultural connections and family members, and other supports including friends and colleagues, can protect against the onset or worsening of mental distress.

    Getting help early can create more options for support. It can also make it easier to accept help in the future.

    Refer to trusted sources of information and calibrate media exposure. While many people need to know about events, news stories and imagery are distressing.

    Incorporate activities that comfort and distract you, and make your situation feel safer. This can include:

    • spending time with family members or friends

    • spiritual, faith or religious reconnecting

    • distraction through music or food.

    Avoid taking devices to bed to protect your sleep and your mental health.

    How to support others

    If you work with or support someone who is impacted, recognise this is a time for sensitivity and compassion. Show you are concerned and, at the same time, check they’re OK. Ask:

    What would be most helpful in our support for you?

    What is the best way for me/the team at work to be supportive and alongside you?

    It is also important to ask about someone’s mental health. You can ask:

    With events unfolding, how are things at home for you right now?

    When validating a person’s experience, remember it is not always important to know personal detail or circumstances in fine detail. What is important is to demonstrate genuine interest, create trust and psychological safety. Aim to really listen, rather than listening so you can respond.

    As a friend, colleague or manager, offering support and listening without judgement may help a person impacted by global catastrophic events.

    In times like these, validation, human connection and support are some of the best things you can do to protect your own and other people’s mental health.

    Sometimes it can be hard to find the words. Here’s what we know helps.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Nicholas Procter currently receives funding from Overseas Services to Survivors of Torture and Trauma, Foundation House and SA Health. He has previously received sitting fees from the Department of Home Affairs.

    Mary Anne Kenny has previous received funding from the Australian Research Council and sitting fees from the Department of Home Affairs.

    ref. How to look after your mental health right now if you have family in the Middle East or another conflict zone – https://theconversation.com/how-to-look-after-your-mental-health-right-now-if-you-have-family-in-the-middle-east-or-another-conflict-zone-240995

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s school funding system is broken. Here’s how to fix it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Glenn Savage, Associate Professor of Education Policy and the Future of Schooling, The University of Melbourne

    As Australian students begin the final term of 2024, governments are in the middle of a bitter standoff over public school funding for next year.

    The federal government has offered states and territories a 2.5% funding increase for schools to the tune of A$16 billion, but some are demanding 5%.

    The deadline for states and territories to sign the proposed new school funding agreement ended on September 30, leaving the future of Australian school funding beyond 2025 in limbo.

    On top of ongoing funding uncertainty, there are also significant issues with how the proposed new agreement is designed. How can we fix this?

    How does school funding work?

    Federal, state and territory governments each contribute to public school funding.

    The federal government currently contributes 20% of the schooling resource standard. This is the estimate of how much public funding a school needs to meet students’ educational needs.

    The Commonwealth ties this funding to reforms and targets aimed at improving equity and learning outcomes for students. The remaining 80% is up to states and territories to fund.

    The current agreement expires at the end of this year and the Albanese government is proposing to replace it with the ten-year Better and Fairer Schools Agreement from the start of 2025.

    The new agreement provides some important opportunities to improve schools and student outcomes, including measures to enhance student wellbeing, increase attendance, strengthen the teacher workforce, and increase the proportion of students who leave school with a Year 12 certificate.




    Read more:
    There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars?


    Painfully slow progress

    The current round of funding negotiations has been plagued by sour politics and persistent roadblocks.

    The new national agreement was originally due to begin in 2024, but was delayed after a damning December 2022 Productivity Commission review. This found the current agreement had “done little” to lift student outcomes.

    The federal government then commissioned an expert review panel (of which one of us, Pasi Sahlberg, was a member) to inform a new agreement. This year, we have seen negotiations with states and territories over funding and details of the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement were released in July.

    But progress has been painfully slow. While Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have signed on, other states and territories are holding out.

    In August, federal Education Minister Jason Clare issued an ultimatum: sign the agreement by September 30 or forgo the 2.5% funding increase. The federal government has since downplayed the missed deadline while critics suggest it was always an “arbitrary” ultimatum.

    Ambiguous equity targets

    The political theatre and inability to find consensus raises major concerns about how effective the national reform agenda can be.

    A closer look at the targets also raises questions about how they might work in practice.

    For example, the new agreement is supposed to have equity at its core (it claims to be “better and fairer”) but it lacks a clear definition of equity. It also lacks specific equity targets to narrow achievement gaps between students from low and high socioeconomic backgrounds.

    The new agreement has “learning equity targets”. This includes measures to reduce the proportion of students in the “needs additional support” NAPLAN category for reading and numeracy by 10% and increase those in the “strong” and “exceeding” categories by 10% by 2030.

    The only specific target for disadvantaged students is there is a “trend upwards” of the proportion in higher NAPLAN proficiency levels.

    Past experience suggests schools will likely “triage” students to reach these targets. This means they will focus more on students who are just below or above the target levels, and less on those unlikely to make the mark. This is what happened when similar targets were set in Ontario in the 2000s.

    So, even if overall average NAPLAN scores improve, achievement gaps (between advantaged and disadvantaged students) could grow. This will not improve equity – it will do the opposite.

    Toothless targets

    There are also no mechanisms to hold states and territories accountable for meeting targets until schools are “fully funded” under the agreement.

    Fully funded means states and territories are receiving 100% of the schooling resource standard. To make matters worse, even when jurisdictions are fully funded, there are no penalties or sanctions for failing to cooperate with the agreement.

    Timelines to reach full funding in the bilateral agreements already signed are years away. For example, it is 2026 for Western Australia and 2029 for the Northern Territory.

    This means states and territories can choose whether they meet the targets or not.

    3 ways to fix school funding

    Failure to fully and fairly fund schools, mixed with an inability to set meaningful targets, creates deep uncertainty for schooling systems as a new year approaches.

    For example, last week the Australian Education Union placed a nationwide ban on the implementation of the new agreement, including “unfunded” reforms that would increase teachers’ workloads.

    This is not a sustainable situation. So, how can we fix it?

    1. Set meaningful targets: it is not enough to have ambiguous goals for improvement that might improve test scores for some but also worsen inequities. At a minimum, we need to rethink targets to ensure they narrow achievement gaps between equity groups. Without this, education systems will continue to fail those who need the most support.

    2. Ensure accountability for the targets: we need to make sure states and territories cannot escape or delay their obligations to improve equity and learning outcomes. To do this, schools should be fully funded from 2025, so current (not future) education ministers are compelled to act.

    3. Distance the politics from school funding: schools need stability and consistency to plan effectively. The Better and Fairer Schools Agreement has a helpful ten-year term but reforms are needed to ensure funding decisions remain fair and consistent across the nation. Instead of messy and protracted political negotiations between governments, we could instead set up a national agency to oversee the distribution of school funding.

    These measures would help avoid political interference and ensure funding is allocated in line with student needs, national reform priorities and agreed targets.

    It’s time to address the deeper issues

    The ongoing failure to fairly resource and set meaningful reforms for our schools is a symptom of a broken national funding system.

    Unless we address its foundational issues, Australian teachers and students — particularly those in disadvantaged schools — will continue to be short-changed.

    Glenn C. Savage receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Pasi Sahlberg was a member of the Australian Government’s Expert Panel to inform a better and fairer education system in 2023.

    ref. Australia’s school funding system is broken. Here’s how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/australias-school-funding-system-is-broken-heres-how-to-fix-it-240908

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Electric car sales have slumped. Misinformation is one of the reasons

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Analytics & Resilience, UNSW Sydney

    Karolis Kavolelis/Shutterstock

    Battery electric vehicle sales in Australia have flattened in recent months. The latest data reveal a sharp 27.2% year-on-year decline (overall new vehicle sales were down 9.7%) in September. Tesla Model Y and Model 3 cars had an even steeper drop of nearly 50%.

    Sales also fell in August (by 18.5%) and July (1.5%). There’s a clear downward trend.

    Before this downturn, electric vehicle sales had been rising steadily, supported by increased choices and government incentives. In early 2024, year-to-date sales continued to grow compared to the same period in 2023. Then, in April, electric vehicle sales fell for the first time in more than two years.

    Australia isn’t simply mirroring a broader global trend. It’s true sales have slowed in parts of Europe and the United States — often due to reduced incentives. But strong sales growth continues in other regions, such as China and India.

    A range of factors or combinations of them could help explain the trend in Australia. These include governments axing incentives, concerns about safety and depreciation, and misinformation.

    Governments are cutting incentives

    Electric vehicles typically cost more upfront. However, the flood of cheaper Chinese vehicles is lowering the cost barrier.

    Federal, state and territory governments also provide financial incentives to buy electric vehicles. These have been among the main drivers of sales in Australia.

    Nationally, incentives include a higher luxury car tax threshold and exemptions from fringe benefits tax and customs duty. But several states and territories have scaled back their rebate programs and tax exemptions in 2023 and 2024.

    New South Wales and South Australia ended their $3,000 rebates on January 1 this year. At the same time, NSW ended a stamp duty refund for new and used zero-emission vehicles up to a value of $78,000. Both incentives had been offered since 2021.

    Victoria ended its $3,000 rebate, also launched in 2021, in mid-2023.

    In the ACT, the incentive of two years’ free registration closed on June 30 2024.

    Queensland’s $6,000 electric vehicle rebate ended in September.

    The market clearly responded to these changes. However, reduced financial incentives alone cannot explain the full picture. Despite several rounds of price cuts, sales of popular Tesla models are falling.

    Buyers are increasingly opting for hybrid vehicles instead. In September, sales of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles were up by 34.4% and 89.9%, respectively.

    These sales trends reflect other consumer concerns beyond just the upfront cost.

    Resale value worries buyers

    One major issue for car buyers in Australia, and globally, is uncertainty about their resale value. Consumers are concerned electric vehicles depreciate faster than traditional cars.

    These concerns are particularly tied to battery degradation, which affects a car’s range and performance over time. And batteries account for much of the vehicle’s total cost. Potential buyers worry about the long-term value of a used electric vehicle with an ageing battery.

    For example, a 2021 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus with nearly 85,000km currently lists for about $34,000. It has lost roughly half its value in just three years.

    While Tesla offers transferable four-year warranties and software updates, the rapid evolution of EV technology also makes older second-hand models less desirable, further reducing their value.

    Fires raise fears about safety

    Electric vehicle fires have made headlines globally. This has created doubts among consumers about the risks of owning them.

    In Korea, a high-profile battery fire in August 2024 led to a ban on certain electric vehicles from underground car parks. While similar bans are not common in Australia, some have been reported. These could have harmed local consumer confidence.

    Incidents of electric vehicle fires have increased along with vehicle numbers. Statistically, these vehicles are not more prone to fires than conventional cars – in fact, the risk is clearly lower.

    For example, analysis of publicly available statistics from South Korean government agencies, one of the early adopters of electric vehicles, show the number of fires per registered electric vehicle is steadily increasing. Fire risk remains lower than for traditional vehicles, although the gap is shrinking as the electric vehicle fleet ages. And the highly publicised nature of their fires is a source of growing buyer hesitancy.

    Electric vehicle fires in Korea are increasing with EV numbers, but the rate is still less than for petrol or diesel cars.
    Author provided using data from South Korean government agencies, CC BY

    Misinformation and politicisation are rampant

    The full environmental benefits of electric vehicles depend on widespread adoption. However, there is a wide gap between early adopters’ experiences and potential buyers’ perceptions.

    Persistent misconceptions include exaggerated concerns about battery life, charging infrastructure and safety. Myths and misinformation often fuel these concerns. Traditional vehicle and oil companies actively spread misinformation in campaigns much like those used against other green energy initiatives.

    In response, coalitions such as Electric Vehicles UK have formed to combat these false narratives and promote accurate information.

    The politicisation of green initiatives adds to the challenge. When electric vehicles become associated with a specific political ideology, it can alienate large parts of the population. Adoption then becomes slower and more divisive.

    Green transition is a work in progress

    The electric vehicle market in Australia is facing challenges, despite the growing variety of models and price cuts.

    The EV sales trend signals deeper issues in the market. Broader trends, such as the dominance of SUVs and utes, underscore the fact that while the transition to greener vehicles is progressing, it remains uneven.

    Further efforts will be needed to reduce misconceptions and misinformation, and bridge the gap between owners’ experience and potential buyers’ perceptions. Only then can Australia enjoy the environmental benefits of widespread EV adoption.

    Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Australia Post, Bondi Laboratories, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Sphere for Good, Australian Meat Processor Corporation,City of Casey, 460degrees and Passel.

    Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Electric car sales have slumped. Misinformation is one of the reasons – https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-have-slumped-misinformation-is-one-of-the-reasons-240545

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.2.

    Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

    Last Monday, Harris led by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). In the last week, Trump has gained in all these states in Silver’s aggregates, reducing Harris’ lead to about one point in these states.

    If Harris wins these four states, she probably wins the Electoral College by at least a 276–262 margin. Trump leads by less than one point in Georgia and North Carolina, which both have 16 electoral votes.

    While Harris is still barely ahead in the Electoral College, her margins have been reduced in the states where she’s leading. As a result, Silver’s model now gives Harris a 52% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% last Monday.

    This means the presidential election is effectively a 50–50 toss-up. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model
    is giving similar results to Silver’s model, with Harris a 53% favourite.

    There’s still over three weeks until the election, and polls could change in that time. The polls could also be biased against either Trump or Harris, and in this case that candidate could win easily. With the polls across the swing states so close, either candidate could sweep all these states.

    I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered the UK Conservative leadership election, the far-right winning the most seats at the September 29 Austrian election and Japan’s October 27 election.

    Favourability ratings and economic data

    Harris’ net favourability peaked about two weeks ago at +1.4 in the FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate, but it has now dropped back to net zero, with 46.8% favourable and 46.8% unfavourable. Harris’ net favourability had surged from about -16 after becoming the Democratic nominee, and she gained further ground after the September 10 debate with Trump.

    Trump’s net favourability has been steady in the last two months, and he’s now at -9.4, with 52.6% unfavourable and 43.2% favourable. Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at +4.2 net favourable and Trump’s running mate JD Vance is at -9.6 net favourable. Biden’s net approval remains poor at -14.0.

    US headline inflation rose 0.2% in September, the same increase as in August. In the 12 months to September, inflation was up 2.4%, the smallest increase since 2021. Core inflation increased 0.3% in September, the same as in August, and is up 3.3% in the 12 months to September.

    Real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings were up 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase in August, while real weekly earnings slid 0.1% after a 0.6% increase in August owing to changes in hours worked. In the 12 months to September, real hourly earnings were up 1.5% and weekly earnings up 0.9%.

    Congressional elections

    I wrote about the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election three weeks ago. The House has 435 single-member seats that are apportioned to states on a population basis, while there are two senators for each of the 50 states.

    The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was at the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222–213 over Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 47.1–45.9 lead over Republicans, a gain for Republican from a 46.7–44.5 Democratic lead three weeks ago.

    Senators have six-year terms, with one-third up for election every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a 51–49 Senate majority, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including seats in three states Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

    West Virginia is a certain Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin at this election. Republicans have taken a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, while Democrats are just 2.3 points ahead in Ohio.

    Republicans are being challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he trails Republican Deb Fischer by just 1.5 points. Democrats did not contest to avoid splitting the vote. In other Senate contests, the incumbent party is at least four points ahead.

    If Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a 50–49 lead in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn would be the decisive vote as a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, who would be Walz. This is the rosiest plausible scenario for Democrats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-dips-in-key-states-making-us-election-contest-a-toss-up-241216

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Newspoll, conducted October 7–11 from a sample of 1,258, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. After three 50–50 ties in a row, this is the first time this term the Coalition has led in Newspoll.

    Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, these primary votes would normally give a 50–50 tie, so rounding probably contributed to the Coalition’s lead.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -14, his worst this term in Newspoll, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–37 (46–37 previously).

    The graph below shows Albanese’s Newspoll net approval ratings this term. The data points are marked with plus signs and a smoothed line has been fitted. Albanese’s net approval has been below -10 in two of the last three Newspolls, causing the trend line to turn down.

    Other federal polls last week had improvements for Labor, and Essential and Resolve last week both suggest the Middle East conflict has had virtually no impact on Australian party support. It’s possible this Newspoll is a pro-Coalition outlier.

    Labor’s primary improves in Resolve poll

    A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted October 1–5 from a sample of 1,606, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one since September), Labor 30% (up two), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), independents 12% (steady) and others 3% (down one).

    Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate, but applying 2022 preference flows to the primary votes would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, unchanged from September.

    Albanese’s net approval was unchanged at -18, with 53% giving him a poor rating and 35% a good rating. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -1. Albanese led Dutton by 38–35 as preferred PM, a slight increase from 35–34 in September.

    The Liberals led Labor by 38–26 on economic management (37–26 in September). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 31–24 (32–25 previously).

    By 58–29, respondents said they would struggle to afford an expense of a few thousand dollars (57–31 in May). This is the highest “struggle to afford” since Resolve started tracking this question in February 2023, but Labor can take some comfort from the little change since May.

    Asked who was most responsible for rising living costs, 36% selected the federal government, 13% global factors, 13% businesses, 12% the Reserve Bank and 8% state and territory governments. Labor incumbent Jim Chalmers led the Liberals’ Angus Taylor as preferred treasurer by 24–18.

    If Australians could vote in the US presidential election, Kamala Harris would lead Donald Trump by 52–21 (50–25 in September). Before Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, he led Trump by just 26–22 with Australians with 31% for “someone else”. Harris’ net likeability is +24, Trump’s is -47 and Biden’s is -25.

    Labor gains lead in Essential poll

    A national Essential poll, conducted October 2–6 from a sample of 1,139, gave Labor a 49–47 lead including undecided (48–47 to the Coalition in late September). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (up three), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (steady).

    On Israel’s military action, 32% said Israel should permanently withdraw from Gaza (down seven since August), 19% said Israel is justified (up two), 18% said Israel should agree to a temporary ceasefire (down three) and 32% were unsure (up eight).

    On the Australian government’s response, 56% were satisfied (up five since August), 30% thought the government too supportive of Israel (down two) and 14% too harsh on Israel (down two).

    By 40–27, voters would support a road user tax for electric vehicle drivers. Just 2% thought the gap between the rich and poor was decreasing, 71% thought it was increasing and 27% staying the same. On Australia’s political system, 48% thought it needs reform but is fundamentally sound, 40% said it needs fundamental change and just 12% said it’s working well.

    Morgan poll tied

    A national Morgan poll, conducted September 30 to October 6 from a sample of 1,697, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the September 23–29 poll.

    Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 31.5% Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5.5% One Nation (up one), 9% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 0.5).

    The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 52–48, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

    ACT election and NSW byelections this Saturday

    The ACT uses the Hare Clark proportional method with five five-member electorates to elect its 25-member parliament, so a quota for election is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%. The ACT is easily Australia’s most left-wing jurisdiction, and Labor has governed since 2001, often in coalition with the Greens. In 2020, Labor won ten seats, the Liberals nine and the Greens six.

    There will also be three NSW state byelections this Saturday in the Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater. Labor won’t be contesting any of these byelections. In Pittwater, Liberal Rory Amon defeated independent Jacqui Scruby by 50.7–49.3 at the 2023 state election. Amon resigned after being charged with child sex offences and Scruby will contest the byelection.

    NSW and Victorian state polls

    A NSW state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal September and October Resolve polls from a sample of 1,111, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (down one since August), Labor 32% (up two), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (steady) and others 6% (steady).

    The Poll Bludger said the primary votes suggested a “slight two-party advantage to Labor”. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 37–14 (38–13 in August).

    By 61–23, voters thought the NSW government is not doing enough to help renters. By 53–19, they thought the government should put aside money towards future metro rail projects.

    A Victorian state Redbridge poll, conducted September 26 to October 3 from a sample of 1,516, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since a late July Redbridge poll. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady) and 18% for all Others (up one).

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Coalition seizes Newspoll lead, but other polls have Labor improving – https://theconversation.com/coalition-seizes-newspoll-lead-but-other-polls-have-labor-improving-240785

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  • MIL-Evening Report: NGV’s Reko Rennie retrospective asks whether he should be considered Australia’s Keith Haring

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Grishin, Adjunct Professor of Art History, Australian National University

    Installation view of
    OA_RR, 2016-2017 at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia
    Photo Kate Shanasy

    Is Reko Rennie Australia’s equivalent of Keith Haring? Both Rennie, a Melbourne-based Aboriginal artist who celebrates the heritage the Kamilaroi people of northern New South Wales, and Haring, the American pop art great, emerged out of an urban graffiti culture.

    Both create a widely recognisable visual language that has a striking vitality, sense of authenticity and a pulsating vibrancy. Both are deeply autobiographical artists who created a visual code through which to share their personal histories.

    Rennie is an interdisciplinary artist who seamlessly moves between video, printmaking, sculpture, painting and neon art. With more than a hundred works on display, drawn from the artist’s two-decade-long career, this is the first significant retrospective of his art.

    Rennie possesses the gift of creating memorable images that are simultaneously puzzling, intriguing and entertaining. On entering the gallery, you encounter a 1973 Rolls-Royce Corniche decorated with the strange camouflage colours that reoccur throughout Rennie’s art. The physical car is accompanied by a three-channel video work with a Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds soundtrack.

    Installation view of REKOSPECTIVE: The Art of Reko Rennie at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia.
    Photo Kate Shanasy/NGV

    Beginnings

    Although born in Footscray in Melbourne, the artist’s grandmother Julia, who belonged to the Stolen Generation in the 1920s and was enslaved on a pastoral station, raised him and imparted to him his Kamilaroi heritage. In his youth, Rennie saw a photograph of a pastoralist and his wife dressed up for Sunday church and seated in their luxury Rolls-Royce car. At the time, he reflected on the poverty his grandmother would have experienced while working on a pastoral station.

    The markings he made on the car, that are layered with a traditional diamond pattern of the Kamilaroi people, claim ownership over the vehicle. Inside it is a photograph of his grandmother. In the video, with a setting sun as a backdrop, Rennie drives the car down dirt tracks to his home country and, in something resembling burnouts, he makes traditional sand engravings with the tyres of the car. The work is poignant, evocative and becomes quickly embedded in your memory.

    The piece references an earlier one, with a pink 1973 Holden Monaro. In that video, the car performs a series of burnouts and doughnuts, the traditional initiation ceremony with Westie drag-racing culture of suburbia into which the artist was born. This is in contrast with the initiation practices and traditional sand engravings of the Kamilaroi people. The video is accompanied with an operatic score from Yorta Yorta woman, composer and soprano, Deborah Cheetham, performed with the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra. Again, the video becomes a haunting and somewhat surreal experience.

    Street spaces

    Rennie is an artist who looks best when he operates in a public environment.

    His early street art, accompanied by break dancing and hip hop, thrives in the accidental lighting of urban spaces. He loves the way street art can ambush the viewer and employ strategies that catch and hold the gaze of the casual passerby. Keith Haring and Howard Arkley were two of the artists who pointed a way for Rennie to move from the street and onto the gallery wall. Although they may have suggested some of the formal strategies, Aboriginal culture provided the content that would consummate the work and give it a narrative.

    When in 2020 there was a commemoration of the 250th anniversary of Lieutenant James Cook’s first landfall at Botany Bay and the HMB Endeavour’s charting of the East Coast of Australia, the Carriageworks in Sydney commissioned Rennie to make a piece for the occasion.

    Reko Rennie, REMEMBER ME 2020, LEDs, plastic, aluminium, electrical components, National Gallery of Victoria, Melbourne, Gift of the Eva, Mila and Reko Collection through the Australian Government’s Cultural Gifts Program, 2023.
    2023.229

    © Reko Rennie

    His monumental text work is made up of LED neon lettering held up in an aluminium armature. It measures over two-and-a-half metres in height and almost 19 metres in length. The simple message, one anchored in a tradition of street art, reads: “REMEMBER ME”. Cook’s landing marked the beginning of a process of invasion and dispossession, Rennie’s text affirms an opposition to the invasion and stresses that First Nations people survived. Sovereignty was never ceded.

    This message has been at the core of much of Rennie’s art, for instance, in the two neon pieces, OA Warrior I (pink) and OA Warrior I (blue), both from 2020. They are based on an 1800s photograph of a defiant Kamilaroi warrior with his raised club. The message is that the OA (Original Aboriginal) will never cede sovereignty.

    Reko Rennie, Kamilaroi born in 1974, Initiation 2013, synthetic polymer paint on plywood, Collection of the artist.
    Supported by Esther and David Frenkiel

    © Reko Rennie, courtesy blackartprojects, Melbourne

    In a much earlier piece from 2016, that has always been one of my favourites in Rennie’s art, a ten-metre-long banner bears the inscription, “I was always here”. It is made of hand-pressed metallic foil on satin where he employs the geometric diamond patterning of the Kamilaroi people as a background to the words.

    The work commemorates all of the Frontier Wars, massacres and oppression suffered by First Nation peoples in this country and in many other countries in a powerful way.

    ‘We’re not a monoculture.’ Artist Reno Rennie introduces his works.

    Impressive and consistent

    Rennie, who turns 50 this year, exhibited at the 56th Venice Biennale in 2015 and with the 2016 XIII Bienale de Cuenca in Ecuador and has held numerous exhibitions across Australia, Asia, the United States and Europe.

    His star is in the ascendancy and he is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most distinctive and versatile artists, who is attracting international acclaim.

    Beautifully curated by Myles Russel-Cook as his final show at the NGV before he takes up the directorship of ACCA, Rekospective is impressive in scope, consistent in content but not repetitive.

    While Keith Haring died at the age of 31, I feel Reko Rennie will be viewed, in retrospect, as an artist at least as significant as Haring and one of growing importance in Australian art.

    REKOSPECTIVE: The Art of Reko Rennie is at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia until 27 January 2025. Free admission.

    Sasha Grishin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. NGV’s Reko Rennie retrospective asks whether he should be considered Australia’s Keith Haring – https://theconversation.com/ngvs-reko-rennie-retrospective-asks-whether-he-should-be-considered-australias-keith-haring-238881

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  • MIL-Evening Report: For people with lung cancer, exercise can be gruelling. It’s also among the most important things

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kellie Toohey, Associate Professor Clinical Exercise Physiology, Southern Cross University

    Ivan Samkov/Pexels

    When you think of lung cancer treatment, what comes to mind – chemotherapy, radiation, surgery? While these can be crucial, there’s another powerful tool that’s often overlooked: exercise.

    Our recent study, published in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, challenges the common belief that people with lung cancer are too sick to be physically active.

    In fact, we found exercise can play a vital role in improving life for those battling this disease.

    What we did and what we found

    Our review involved analysing 26 high quality studies on how best to incorporate exercise into treatment for lung cancer.

    We found the overwhelming weight of evidence shows exercise offers benefits at every stage of the lung cancer journey. This includes:

    • before surgery (being more fit can lead to faster recovery and potentially fewer complications)
    • after surgery (gentle exercise helps regain strength and makes daily tasks easier)
    • during other treatments (physical activity can ease side effects like fatigue and muscle weakness)
    • at advanced stages of disease (even for late-stage patients, evidence shows exercise can improve quality of life and maintain independence)
    • patients experiencing muscle wasting (evidence shows exercise, especially strength training, helps preserve muscle and keeps patients stronger).

    What does exercise look like?

    When we say “exercise,” we’re not talking about running marathons. For someone with lung cancer, it might mean:

    • taking a short walk around the block
    • doing some gentle cycling on a stationary bike
    • swimming or doing some movement in the water
    • lifting light weights or doing banded exercises
    • doing yoga or tai chi for more mobile, flexible joints, as well as stress and pain reduction.

    The key is to start slowly and listen to your body. What works for one person might not work for another.

    Getting started safely

    If you or a loved one has lung cancer and wants to be more active, start by talking with your doctor. They can advise on any precautions you should take and send you to an exercise specialist if needed.

    You might also consider working with an exercise physiologist or physiotherapist who can design a safe, personalised program.

    It’s OK to start small – even five to ten minutes of activity is beneficial, according to the Cancer Council Australia .

    Try to be consistent, if you can. Regular, gentle exercise is better than occasional intense bursts.

    It can help to keep track of your progress and how you feel after each session. You might also try looking for support groups or exercise classes specifically for cancer patients at local hospitals or community centres.

    The Cancer Council Australia website offers inspiration and ideas on exercises to start with, even in the home.

    The real-world benefits

    Research shows regular physical activity can significantly improve quality of life for lung cancer patients. These can include:

    • reduced fatigue, even though that might seem counterintuitive
    • less breathlessness, as exercise can improve lung function
    • less muscle weakness, which makes daily tasks easier
    • better mood, as physical exercise can help fight depression and anxiety
    • better sleep; many patients report sleeping more easily after starting an exercise routine.
    Exercise can improve lung function and may reduce breathlessness.
    Dragana Gordic/Shutterstock

    Ditch the stigma, and get the exercise support you deserve

    Lung cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed worldwide. It’s a devastating illness that affects not just the body, but also a person’s mental health and quality of life.

    Unfortunately, there’s often a stigma attached to lung cancer. Many patients feel judged, or that they must have done something – such as smoking – to “deserve” their diagnosis.

    This shame can prevent people from seeking help or joining support programs.

    But here’s an important truth: anyone can get lung cancer, even if they’ve never smoked.

    And regardless of how someone developed the disease, they deserve compassion and the best possible care – including support for physical activity.

    Never too late to start

    It’s important to note exercise can be beneficial even for those receiving palliative care.

    In palliative care, the goals shift from fighting the cancer to enhancing comfort and quality of life, and physical activity can play a significant role in this.

    Even palliative care patients may benefit from exercise.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    A lung cancer diagnosis is undoubtedly daunting. But we’re learning patients have more tools to improve their wellbeing than we once thought.

    Exercise isn’t a cure, but it can be a powerful complement to traditional treatments and medications.

    If you or someone you know is facing lung cancer, don’t be afraid to discuss incorporating exercise into the treatment plan with your health-care team. Start small, be patient and consistent, and remember that every bit of movement counts.

    By challenging old assumptions and embracing exercise as part of lung cancer care, we can empower patients to take a more active role in their treatment.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. For people with lung cancer, exercise can be gruelling. It’s also among the most important things – https://theconversation.com/for-people-with-lung-cancer-exercise-can-be-gruelling-its-also-among-the-most-important-things-240216

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  • MIL-Evening Report: How do heat protectants for hair work? A chemistry expert explains

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Eldridge, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Swinburne University of Technology

    Dmitrii Pridannikov/Shutterstock

    Heat can do amazing things to change your hairstyle. Whether you’re using a curling wand to get ringlets, a flat iron to straighten or a hair dryer to style, it’s primarily the heat from these tools that delivers results.

    This comes with casualties. While your hair is surprisingly tolerant to heat compared with many other parts of your body, it can still only withstand so much. Heat treatment hair appliances frequently operate at over 150°C, with some reportedly reaching over 200°C. At these temperatures, your hair can end up fried.

    Many people use heat protectants, often in the form of sprays, to minimise the damage. So how do these protectants work? To answer that, I first have to explain exactly what heat does to your tresses on the molecular level.

    Heating tools can do amazing things – but this often comes at a price.
    Engin Akyurt/Pexels

    What heat does to your hair

    A large proportion of your hair is made up of proteins. There are attractive forces between these proteins, known as hydrogen bonds. These bonds play a big role in dictating the shape of your locks.

    When you heat up your hair, the total attraction of these hydrogen bonds become weaker, allowing you to more easily re-shape your hair. Then, when it cools back down, these attractions between the proteins are re-established, helping your hair hold its new look until the proteins rediscover their normal structure.

    The cuticle – the outermost protective layer of your hair – contains overlapping layers of cells that lose integrity when they’re heated, damaging this outer protective layer.

    Inside that outer layer is the cortex, which is rich in a protein called keratin.

    Many proteins don’t hold up structurally after intense heating. Think of cooking an egg – the change you see is a result of the heat altering the proteins in that egg, unravelling them into different shapes and sizes.

    It’s a similar story when it comes to heating your hair. The proteins in your hair are also susceptible to heat damage, reducing the overall strength and integrity of the hair.

    Heat can also affect substances called melanin and tryptophan in your hair, resulting in a change in pigmentation. Heat-damaged hair is harder to brush.

    The damage is even more devastating if you use heat styling tools such as curling irons or straighteners to heat wet hair, as at the high treatment temperatures, the water soaked up by the fibres can violently evaporate.

    The result of this is succinctly described by science educator and cosmetic chemist Michelle Wong, also known as Lab Muffin. She notes if you heat wet hair this way, “steam will blast through your hair’s structure”.

    This steam bubbling or bursting through the hair can cause substantial damage.

    It’s worth noting hair dryers don’t concentrate heat in the same way as styling tools such as flat irons or curling wands, but you still need to move the hair dryer around constantly to avoid heat building up in one spot and causing damage.

    Once heat damage is done, regardless of whether it is severe or mild, the best remaining options are symptom management or a haircut.

    For all of these reasons, when you’re planning to heat treat your hair, protection is a good idea.

    If you’re heating up hair, protection is a good idea.
    Bucsa Nicolae/Shutterstock

    How hair protectants work

    When you spray on a hair protectant, many possible key ingredients can go to work.

    They can have daunting-looking names like polyvinyl pyrrolidone, methacrylates, polyquaterniums, silicones and more.

    These materials are chosen because they readily stick onto your hair, creating a coating, a bit like this:

    Hair protectant applies a coating to your hair.
    Author provided

    This coating is a protective layer; it’s like putting an oven mitt on your hands before you handle a hot tray from the oven.

    To demonstrate, I created these by examining hair under a microscope before and after heat protectant was applied:

    These high magnification images of untreated hair, and hair sprayed with a heat treatment spray, show how the product coats your hair strands.
    Author provided

    Just like an oven mitt, a hair protectant delays the heat penetration, results in less heat getting through, and helps spread out the effect of the heat, a bit like in this image:

    Hair protectant can help spread out the effects of the heat.
    Author provided

    This helps prevent moisture loss and damage to both the protective surface cell layer (the cuticle) and the protein structure of the hair cortex.

    For these barriers to work at their best, these heat-protecting layers need to remain bound to your hair. In other words, they stick on really well.

    For this reason, continued use can sometimes cause a buildup which can change the feel and weight of your hair.

    This buildup is not permanent and can be removed with washing.

    One final and important note: just like when you use a mitt for the oven, heat does still get through. The only way to prevent heat damage to your hair altogether is to not use heated styling tools.

    Daniel Eldridge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How do heat protectants for hair work? A chemistry expert explains – https://theconversation.com/how-do-heat-protectants-for-hair-work-a-chemistry-expert-explains-233206

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  • MIL-Evening Report: There’s a plan for free school lunches in Queensland. Is this a good idea?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Dix, Lecturer In Nutrition & Dietetics, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Queensland Premier Steven Miles has announced free school lunches if Labor is re-elected at the state’s upcoming election on October 26.

    The A$1.4 billion policy would cover primary students in public schools and begin next year. Labor estimates it would save parents about $1,600 per child, per year. On Sunday, Miles said:

    [The program is] universal to avoid stigmatising the kids that need the food the most, but also to ensure that it supports every Queensland family.

    The meals will be delivered in partnership with P&Cs Queensland, Queensland Association of School Tuckshops, school principals, Health and Wellbeing Queensland and non-government food providers.

    The Greens are also campaigning on a pledge to deliver free breakfasts and lunches for every state primary and high school student, costed at $3 billion over the next four years.

    Would a school lunches program help students and families? How would it work in practice?

    An unusual approach for Australia

    Unlike the United Kingdom and United States, Australian does not have a national or state-based free or subsidised school meal program.

    Instead, parents are responsible for providing morning tea and lunch through a “lunchbox system”. Families can also usually pre-order food from a canteen or tuckshop. In some cases, state or territory governments fund charities and non-for-profits to provide breakfast or lunch programs for schools identified as most in need of support.

    Research shows the nutritional quality of food provided to Australian school children often does not meet dietary guidelines. There are mandatory guidelines for state school canteens and tuckshops to follow but these are not always reflected in practice. Research shows many canteen menus contain less-than-desirable options and pricing often does not encourage families to buy healthier options.

    Unfortunately, health survey data shows Australian children’s diets are high in energy dense and nutritionally poor foods. On top of this, the 2023 Foodbank Report shows 36% of Australians are food insecure and about one quarter of these households have children at home who may not have adequate food for school.

    Australia has a ‘lunchbox system’ where families provide the food for school.
    Halfpoint/ Shutterstock

    What are the potential opportunities?

    So the idea of a free school lunch program delivered by organisations familiar with providing food in schools sounds like a positive solution.

    Beyond improving nutrition and health outcomes for more than 326,000 Queensland students, it can also provide other benefits.

    We could see improved school attendance by creating an incentive for students to go to school and improved diets leading to reduced illness. Because well-nourished children are more ready to learn, concentrate and stay on task, school lunches could lead to improved academic performance.

    Importantly, school lunches can reduce inequality and stigma for families who experience food insecurity.

    The school kitchen can also provide a opportunities for students to learn about food preparation and service as well as healthy eating.

    What are the key challenges?

    But we need to make sure the program is properly and sustainably designed. There will be a cost to taxpayers, not just in terms of the set up, but ongoing maintenance.

    The initial implementation will require commercial kitchens and equipment, qualified and trained staff, secure food procurement and supply chains as well as all the policies and procedures to go with this. This raises the question of whether the timeline of starting in Term 1, 2025 is realistic for all schools.

    The roll out needs to be equitable – extra consideration is needed for how this plan will be delivered to rural and remote Queenslanders. We also know access to reliable supplies of food, staff, equipment and support varies greatly across the state.

    The program will also need to cater to children with food allergies and intolerances, food preferences experienced with conditions like autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and different cultural eating practices.

    This plan has the potential to improve Queensland children’s health and education outcomes, while saving families money, time and stress. But it is complex and success will lie in making sure all Queensland primary students are provided with nutritious and appropriate food at school.

    Clare Dix has received funding from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care.

    ref. There’s a plan for free school lunches in Queensland. Is this a good idea? – https://theconversation.com/theres-a-plan-for-free-school-lunches-in-queensland-is-this-a-good-idea-241242

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia has led the way regulating gene technology for over 20 years. Here’s how it should apply that to AI

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Powles, Associate Professor of Law and Technology; Director, UWA Tech & Policy Lab, Law School, The University of Western Australia

    Since 2019, the Australian Department for Industry, Science and Resources has been striving to make the nation a leader in “safe and responsible” artificial intelligence (AI). Key to this is a voluntary framework based on eight AI ethics principles, including “human-centred values”, “fairness” and “transparency and explainability”.

    Every subsequent piece of national guidance on AI has spun off these eight principles, imploring business, government and schools to put them into practice. But these voluntary principles have no real hold on organisations that develop and deploy AI systems.

    Last month, the Australian government started consulting on a proposal that struck a different tone. Acknowledging “voluntary compliance […] is no longer enough”, it spoke of “mandatory guardrails for AI in high-risk settings”.

    But the core idea of self-regulation remains stubbornly baked in. For example, it’s up to AI developers to determine whether their AI system is high risk, by having regard to a set of risks that can only be described as endemic to large-scale AI systems.

    If this high hurdle is met, what mandatory guardrails kick in? For the most part, companies simply need to demonstrate they have internal processes gesturing at the AI ethics principles. The proposal is most notable, then, for what it does not include. There is no oversight, no consequences, no refusal, no redress.

    But there is a different, ready-to-hand model that Australia could adopt for AI. It comes from another critical technology in the national interest: gene technology.

    A different model

    Gene technology is what’s behind genetically modified organisms. Like AI, it raises concerns for more than 60% of the population.

    In Australia, it’s regulated by the Office of the Gene Technology Regulator. The regulator was established in 2001 to meet the biotech boom in agriculture and health. Since then, it’s become the exemplar of an expert-informed, highly transparent regulator focused on a specific technology with far-reaching consequences.

    Three features have ensured the gene technology regulator’s national and international success.

    First, it’s a single-mission body. It regulates dealings with genetically modified organisms:

    to protect the health and safety of people, and to protect the environment, by identifying risks posed by or as a result of gene technology.

    Second, it has a sophisticated decision-making structure. Thanks to it, the risk assessment of every application of gene technology in Australia is informed by sound expertise. It also insulates that assessment from political influence and corporate lobbying.

    The regulator is informed by two integrated expert bodies: a Technical Advisory Committee and an Ethics and Community Consultative Committee. These bodies are complemented by Institutional Biosafety Committees supporting ongoing risk management at more than 200 research and commercial institutions accredited to use gene technology in Australia. This parallels best practice in food safety and drug safety.

    The Gene Technology Regulator has a sophisticated decision-making structure.
    Office of The Gene Technology Regulator, CC BY

    Third, the regulator continuously integrates public input into its risk assessment process. It does so meaningfully and transparently. Every dealing with gene technology must be approved. Before a release into the wild, an exhaustive consultation process maximises review and oversight. This ensures a high threshold of public safety.

    Regulating high-risk technologies

    Together, these factors explain why Australia’s gene technology regulator has been so successful. They also highlight what’s missing in most emerging approaches to AI regulation.

    The mandate of AI regulation typically involves an impossible compromise between protecting the public and supporting industry. As with gene regulation, it seeks to safeguard against risks. In the case of AI, those risks would be to health, the environment and human rights. But it also seeks to “maximise the opportunities that AI presents for our economy and society”.

    Second, currently proposed AI regulation outsources risk assessment and management to commercial AI providers. Instead, it should develop a national evidence base, informed by cross-disciplinary scientific, socio-technical and civil society expertise.

    The argument goes that AI is “out of the bag”, with potential applications too numerous and too mundane to regulate. Yet molecular biology methods are also well out of the bag. The gene tech regulator still maintains oversight of all uses of the technology, while continually working to categorise certain dealings as “exempt” or “low-risk” to facilitate research and development.

    Third, the public has no meaningful opportunity to assent to dealings with AI. This is true regardless of whether it involves plundering the archives of our collective imaginations to build AI systems, or deploying them in ways that undercut dignity, autonomy and justice.

    The lesson of more than two decades of gene regulation is that it doesn’t stop innovation to regulate a promising new technology until it can demonstrate a history of non-damaging use to people and the environment. In fact, it saves it.

    The UWA Tech & Policy Lab receives funding from nationally competitive research grants and philanthropic partners. The present research was supported by GA308883: Effective Ethical Frameworks for the State as an Enabler of Innovation, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Julia Powles is the Director of the Lab and has served as an independent member of the National AI Centre’s Think Tank on Responsible AI, the Australian Government’s National Robotics Strategy Advisory Committee, and the Advisory Panel supporting the Australian Parliamentary Inquiry into the Use of Generative AI in the Australian Education System. Through each of these bodies, she has provided advice on comparative AI regulation.

    Haris Yusoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Australia has led the way regulating gene technology for over 20 years. Here’s how it should apply that to AI – https://theconversation.com/australia-has-led-the-way-regulating-gene-technology-for-over-20-years-heres-how-it-should-apply-that-to-ai-240571

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: This beautiful peacock spider was only found two years ago. Now it could be dancing its last dance

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lizzy Lowe, Vice Chancellor’s Research Fellow in Ecology and Entomology, Edith Cowan University

    If you notice a tiny, strikingly coloured spider performing an elaborate courtship dance, you may have seen your first peacock spider.

    New species of peacock spider are discovered every year; the tally is now 113. One newly discovered species, Maratus yanchep, is only known to exist in a small area of coastal dunes near Yanchep, north of Perth.

    As Perth’s suburbs sprawl ever further north and south, it means one problem – the housing crisis – is worsening another, the extinction crisis.

    The dunes which are home to Maratus yanchep are just 20 metres from land being cleared for large new estates.

    If the species was formally listed as threatened, it could be protected. But the spider was only described in 2022 and has not been listed on state or federal threatened species lists. That means Maratus yanchep has no protection, according to the state government.

    What’s so special about a spider?

    Peacock spiders are tiny. Many have bodies just 4–5 mm across. The males only put on their mating displays during short periods of the year, typically August to September. Their size and habits also make it hard to learn about their populations and preferred habitats. This is partly why we’re only now realising how many peacock spider species there are.

    Concerted effort by enthusiasts such as Jurgen Otto has greatly expanded our knowledge. Of the 113 described species, each has distinctive colouring and its own dances (males have the colour and the moves). But we know there are more species of peacock spider waiting to be recognised by western science.

    Many species of peacock spider are only known from within a very small area of suitable habitat.

    This puts the species at high risk of extinction because a single threat such as a large bushfire or a suburban development can destroy all their habitat at once.

    Peacock spiders such as this Maratus tasmanicus are tiny but pack a lot of personality.
    Kristian Bell/Shutterstock

    How can this be allowed?

    Before any native bushland is cleared in Australia, developers have to undertake an environmental impact survey to look for threatened species and assess what damage the development would do. If a threatened species is found, the development can be scaled back or denied.

    The problem is, these surveys only look for species known to be in danger. If a species isn’t listed on Australia’s growing list of threatened species, it won’t be looked for.

    But Maratus yanchep has not been assessed to see if it is threatened. This means it has no protection from development.

    This points to a wider problem. Large, well-known Australian vertebrates such as koalas and platypuses tend to get more attention – and conservation efforts – than humble invertebrates. We face an uphill battle to conserve our wealth of invertebrates.

    Worldwide, many invertebrates are in real danger of disappearing. Australia is home to at least 300,000 invertebrate species, dwarfing the 8,000-odd vertebrates – but only 101 are currently listed under the federal government’s laws protecting threatened species, the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act. The problem here is we don’t have enough data to assess most invertebrate species for formal conservation listing and protection.

    Data takes money

    Listing a species as threatened requires a large amount of data on where the species is and isn’t found. This takes time and specialist knowledge. But funding is scarce.

    As a result, our efforts to gather data on invertebrates often relies on passionate volunteers and enthusiasts, who may often pick one genus – say peacock spiders – and set out to expand our knowledge.

    When clear and immediate threats do appear – such as clearing coastal dunes in Yanchep – we are again reliant on the unpaid work of volunteers to gather information.

    The problem of sprawl

    Perth is one of the longest cities in the world. Its suburbs sprawl for 150 kilometres, running from Two Rocks in the north to Dawesville in the south.

    Many Perth residents want to live by the coast, driving demand for new housing on the city outskirts. This drives destruction of native bushland and pushes species towards extinction. Some species tolerate the change from bushland to suburbia, but these are a minority – less than 25%. Small, localised species are at highest risk of extinction.

    Perth’s sprawl shows no sign of slowing. Land clearing for housing has contributed to the worsening plight of the Carnaby’s cockatoo. Fifty years ago, the iconic cockatoo flew over the city in flocks as large as 7,000. There’s nothing like that now.

    Perth’s urban sprawl now stretches beyond Yanchep. Pictured: Yanchep’s beach. The bush area in the background is where maratus yanchep lives.
    Kok Kin Meng/Shutterstock

    What can we do?

    Efforts are underway to protect Maratus yanchep. The not-for-profit charity Invertebrates Australia is working to nominate it for the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species. Greens MP Brad Pettitt raised the issue in Parliament in August.

    The one thing peacock spiders have going for them is their looks. They are spectacularly beautiful. They’re also easily identified by the distinct patterns on the males – for most species you don’t need expert training to tell them apart, just decent eyesight.

    As a result, peacock spiders have drawn attention from dozens of amateur arachnologists and photographers who collect and share information on where they can be found. This citizen science data is often able to be used as evidence in listing a species as threatened – and unlocking vital protection.

    Images of these spiders also boosts their public profile and support for their protection.

    Despite the recent groundswell of interest in saving this tiny spider, it may be too late. To avoid the mass extinction of iconic Australian species, we must find better ways of building without large-scale habitat clearing.




    Read more:
    Photos from the field: zooming in on Australia’s hidden world of exquisite mites, snails and beetles


    Lizzy Lowe is affiliated with Invertebrates Australia

    Jess Marsh is affiliated with Invertebrates Australia.

    Dr Leanda Denise Mason is affiliated with Centre for People, Place, and Planet.

    ref. This beautiful peacock spider was only found two years ago. Now it could be dancing its last dance – https://theconversation.com/this-beautiful-peacock-spider-was-only-found-two-years-ago-now-it-could-be-dancing-its-last-dance-238437

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fall of Khrushchev: 60 years since the ‘most democratic coup’ in Soviet history, how Comrade Nikita was toppled

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tomas Sniegon, Associate Professor, Department of European Studies, Lund University

    The overthrow of Nikita Khrushchev from the posts of first secretary of the Soviet Communist Party and the leader of the Soviet state in October 1964 was an unprecedented event in the history of the Soviet Union.

    The old leader was deposed by the opposition without violence. He was not imprisoned or killed after losing power. While his predecessors Lenin and Stalin and successors Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko all died in power, Khrushchev was sent into retirement, where he lived under supervision for another seven years.

    Unlike the era of the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union did not disintegrate when its leader had to relinquish power. Six decades have now passed since what has become known as the “most democratic coup” in Soviet history – sometimes referred to as the “little October revolution”.

    Khrushchev, who rose to power on the death of Josef Stalin in 1953, actually came close to being overthrown as early as 1957. At that time, Stalin’s former collaborators and close comrades, including Georgy Malenkov and Vyacheslav Molotov, opposed him. They even gained an upper hand in the party’s highest body, the presidium. But Khrushchev was saved by the support of the army leadership, the KGB political police and the wider party leadership, the central committee.

    Seven years later, however, he was brought down by politicians from the next generation – men who largely owed their powerful positions to him.

    Strongest among them was Leonid Brezhnev, who duly took Khrushchev’s place as first secretary (shortly afterwards renaming his position general secretary, the same title as Stalin). Next in line was Alexander Shelepin, the powerful secretary of the party’s central committee who had run the KGB from 1958 to 1961.

    The role of the KGB, which in October 1964 was headed by Shelepin’s successor Vladimir Semichastny, was crucial in ensuring Khrushchev’s downfall, as its ninth directorate – which was responsible for the protection of state officials – not only protected but also constantly monitored them.

    Semichastny not only knew about the revolt against Khrushchev but was actively involved in it. Had he informed the leader about the plotting, pretty much what he was in the job to do, Khrushchev would more than likely have averted the palace coup this time as well.

    In his memoirs, Semichastny even mentioned the fact that Brezhnev raised the possibility of Khrushchev’s assassination during one conversation with him. But this plan was never put into action. In the event the plot to remove the Soviet leader was completed by non-violent means.

    Reforming leader

    Khrushchev has gone down in history as a reformer who wanted to make Soviet communism less brutal. He strongly criticised Stalin for his abuse of power but, at the same time, he gradually increased his own powers.

    His efforts at political and economic reforms stopped when they posed a threat to maintaining the monopoly of communist power. Despite paying lip service to the idea of less heavy-handed domination of the Soviet bloc from Moscow, he became known for his bloody suppression of the Hungarian revolt in 1956. During the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, he then brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

    New kind of leadership: Kruschev meeting US president John F Kennedy in Vienna in 1961.

    His initially positive reforms improved the living standards) of the people in his country, but later became chaotic and led to social unrest, including the massacre of workers in Novocherkassk in 1962 and the need to buy grain from the west, which he had previously wanted to ideologically “bury”.

    Also, the rift between the Soviet Union and China at the turn of the 1950s and 1960s caused a certain resentment in Moscow. Khrushchev’s moves towards liberalisation had not caused the rift, which was more due to China’s increased authoritarianism under Mao Zedong during that era. This was exacerbated by border disputes between the two countries as well as disagreements over international relations. But Khrushchev’s critics felt he could – and should – have handled relations more skilfully.

    Fall and legacy

    Having faced down a coup attempt in 1957, by October 1964 Khrushchev found himself politically isolated and without support in either the presidium or in the central committee. His opponents forced him to return prematurely from his vacation in the Georgian report town of Pitsunda to Moscow where he was confronted by his political opponents, led by Brezhnev with the support of other powerful politicians, including Shelepin, Alexei Kosygin and Mikhail Suslov.

    Realising his supporters in the presidium were in the minority and that to retain power would mean involving the army or KGB, which he was not confident would back him, Khruschev resigned.

    Reflecting on how his leadership had rejected Stalinism, he is reported to have said: “I am glad that, finally, the party has matured and can control any individual.”

    But Brezhnev, who manoeuvred himself into power in Khrushchev’s stead, learned from the fall of his predecessor and tightened his grip on the levers of power. Yet the Soviet Union – thanks in large part to Khrushchev – never returned the state terror and mass murder of Stalinism.

    The Soviet Union was to experience another coup attempt against a leader in 1991, when conservative opponents tried to overthrow another reformer, Mikhail Gorbachev. But this attempt, much less prepared and elaborate and lacking the necessary wider support, failed. The Soviet Union collapsed and was formally disbanded just a few months later.

    But for many people, it’s Khrushchev whose reforms and governing style began the gradual disintegration of the Soviet Union as far back as the 1950s, partly thanks to his efforts to impose more democratisation. It is not surprising that the current Russian president, Vladimir Putin, disdains him – especially since Khrushchev, according to Putin, “senselessly donated” Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.

    At least Khrushchev himself was able to live to focus on the positives. He would recall in his memoir how he freed his country from the suffocating fear of Stalinism and was able to raise a generation of younger politicians who were finally not afraid to stand up to him. Sadly, this is no longer a hallmark under the current leadership.

    Tomas Sniegon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Fall of Khrushchev: 60 years since the ‘most democratic coup’ in Soviet history, how Comrade Nikita was toppled – https://theconversation.com/fall-of-khrushchev-60-years-since-the-most-democratic-coup-in-soviet-history-how-comrade-nikita-was-toppled-241053

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Israel-Gaza conflict: Home and away

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Vinita Srivastava, Senior Editor, Culture + Society | Host + Exec. Producer, Don’t Call Me Resilient

    This article is from our race-related newsletter, a weekly curation of stories examining how systemic racism permeates our society. Sign up for the newsletter here.

    It’s not often that events far away impact us so profoundly at home. But events in Palestine and Israel, which have been reverberating in the Global North for decades, crescendoed over the past year, directly impacting millions of people in the region and also those of us who feel deeply committed to the transnational issues the conflict raises.

    Away, in Israel, 80,000 people remain displaced from their homes and lives continue to be gutted after the horrific attacks by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, which led to over 1,200 people killed and 250 taken captive. Across the border, more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed, primarily by Israeli forces, and another two million have been displaced, many of whom are facing catastrophic famine conditions.

    Here in Ontario, before the start of this war, the Ford government had connected criticism of Israel to antisemitism and turned that concept into law through an executive decree. That same definition was picked up by institutions across Canada.

    That decree has ramifications for news media as well as university scholars across the country. This spring, students on Canadian campuses turned Canadian universities into massive hubs of debate as they protested the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank.

    In late September, those debates continued at the grade-school-level when teachers in Toronto were prevented from taking students on any field trips for the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, a federally mandated day of memorialization. That school board decision was based on concerns that students may be exposed to rhetoric supporting Palestine. At an earlier demonstration about Asubpeeschoseewagong (Grassy Narrows) First Nation, some demonstrators chanted a slogan connecting Indigenous Peoples dispossessed of their land here to those in Palestine, also dispossessed of their land.

    Recently, two Canadian scholars discussed some of those connections: how famine historically was used to control Indigenous communities in Canada, and continues to be a weapon of war against Palestinians today.

    When I was in grade school, Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress were classified as terrorists. Although I remember somehow being able to attend a school-sponsored talk by a former ANC member who spoke about the 1976 Soweto uprising. I trace part of my politicization back to that day.

    Teachers who introduce their students to issues like Grassy Narrows are aware of the lasting impression first-person narratives can make.

    This week, we put together eight episodes from Don’t Call Me Resilient from the last year in which you will hear directly from scholars with deep knowledge of the regions and the issues at play. The playlist starts with: “Why the Israel-Gaza conflict is so hard to talk about,” with other episodes digging into themes of starvation, news media, student protests and asylum seekers.

    Because it’s the long weekend, I’ll also point you to a music playlist we made, with suggestions from our podcast guests over the years. I’m inviting all of you to write in with song suggestions to add to it. We will try to get at least some of them up there this long weekend.

    Just drop us an email with your suggestion at: dcmr@theconversation.com

    ref. Israel-Gaza conflict: Home and away – https://theconversation.com/israel-gaza-conflict-home-and-away-240854

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: New survey of IPCC authors reveals doubt, and hope, that world will achieve climate targets

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Seth Wynes, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, University of Waterloo

    How hot is it going to get?

    This is one of the most important and difficult remaining questions about our changing climate. The answer depends not only on how sensitive our climate is to greenhouse gases, but also on how much carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases we as a civilization choose to emit over coming decades.

    In order to help think more clearly about this question, we asked authors who have contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to share their best guesses about where the world is headed.

    The results of our recently published study show that most of the responding climate experts believe our planet will likely exceed the 1.5 C and “well-below 2 C” warming targets agreed upon by the international community.

    In fact, the median estimate was 2.7 C by 2100, which is roughly what is expected if the world’s nations fail to implement new policies consistent with their targets and pledges, and instead only maintained existing levels of action.




    Read more:
    How mainstream climate science endorsed the fantasy of a global warming time machine


    To put it plainly, this could be a catastrophic outcome for humanity. We’ve already seen devastating consequences like more flooding, hotter heatwaves and larger wildfires, and we’re only at 1.3 C above preindustrial levels — less than halfway to 2.7 C.

    But not all authors think alike and to help shed further light on the IPCC report process, and any differences of opinion between authors, we conducted a survey over email with 211 authors of past reports providing responses. Our participants represented all IPCC working groups, and every inhabited continent.

    The data they shared provides a fascinating glimpse into the dynamics of modern climate science.

    Wide ranging beliefs

    Our survey shows that authors shared a wide range of estimates as to likely climate outcomes.

    A small number of surveyed experts believe that staying below 2 C is still likely, while others believed that we are on track for even more horrendous levels of climate warming at above 3 C. Approximately 86 per cent of participants estimated warming of more than 2 C by or before the year 2100.

    When we planned the study, we wondered whether IPCC authors who worked on climate solutions would be more optimistic than those who worked on climate vulnerability and adaptation. One reason for this is that experts who work on solutions might be more aware of recent research indicating that worst-case climate outcomes are becoming less likely. But we only found weak evidence for this hypothesis.

    In some ways this is a good sign, as it suggests that researchers are not working in isolated silos, each holding their own beliefs.

    Mixed perceptions

    A unique feature of the study is that we also asked IPCC authors what they thought others in the survey would answer in response to the same questions. We were interested to know the extent to which experts in this field believed that other experts shared similar beliefs to their own. Perceptions of peer beliefs are important because they can strongly influence a person’s own beliefs and behaviour.

    Participants in our study believed very strongly that their peers’ views on expected future warming were in line with their own beliefs. Even those who expected very high or very low amounts of future warming incorrectly believed that their peers would have similar estimates.

    This is not particularly surprising. In many domains, people tend to estimate the beliefs of their peers by examining their own beliefs, and then adjusting up or down, but often insufficiently. Researchers call this a false-consensus effect and we found that this effect was very prominent in our results.

    Because IPCC authors are trusted public figures who are often asked to share their thoughts with decision-makers and the media, this finding could be problematic if an author confidently believes that their expectations are also widely shared by their peers.

    Interdisciplinary benefits

    We see our study as an opportunity for experts to better understand the range of beliefs held by their own community, so they can communicate with more nuance and awareness as to whether their personal beliefs are part of a larger consensus or not.




    Read more:
    Eco-anxiety Q&A: how the IPCC’s vice-chair keeps her head cool on a warming planet


    Climate experts are not oracles. And even though a “wisdom of the crowd” average is often more accurate than a single expert, forecasting decades into the future is extremely difficult.

    The balance of evidence from this study reaffirms a message that climate scientists have been repeating for a long time: current efforts to tackle climate change are insufficient and more progress is needed quickly.

    While working on this project Seth Wynes received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and from Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    ref. New survey of IPCC authors reveals doubt, and hope, that world will achieve climate targets – https://theconversation.com/new-survey-of-ipcc-authors-reveals-doubt-and-hope-that-world-will-achieve-climate-targets-239177

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: R v. Kloubakov: Supreme Court of Canada ignores sex workers in case on sex work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Vincent Wong, Assistant Professor of Law, University of Windsor

    The Supreme Court of Canada will soon hear a case, R v. Kloubakov, in which two men charged with financially benefiting from sex work are claiming the charges violate their Charter rights.

    The accused worked as drivers for sex workers in Calgary. A court in Alberta found them guilty of benefiting financially from prostitution and being parties to procuring women into the sex trade. They argue that Canada’s sex work laws criminalize people who work with sex workers in non-exploitative situations, and are therefore unconstitutional.

    While the appellants in this case are not sex workers themselves, the outcome greatly impacts sex workers and their rights because it could, among other things, undermine their security and ability to put in place safety measures. Migrants arrested under these laws also face the prospect of loss of status, detention and deportation.

    Nevertheless, the Supreme Court has chosen to exclude a national coalition of 23 sex worker organizations, the Canadian Alliance for Sex Work Law Reform (CASWLR), and two organizations that work with migrant sex workers (the Migrant Workers Alliance for Change and the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers.

    The court has concluded their views are irrelevant to the case at hand. This exclusion rehearses Canada’s longer history of excluding those connected with sex work based on race, gender and immigration status.

    Canada’s sex work law

    This case centres on the procurement and material benefits provisions in Canada’s criminal code. They are part of the Protection of Communities and Exploited Persons Act (PCEPA), which was passed in 2014 after the Supreme Court struck down previous provisions targeting sex work.

    PCEPA criminalizes “everyone who procures a person to offer or provide sexual services” and anyone “who receives a financial or other material benefit” from sex work, with certain exceptions.

    The law assumes that sex workers are victims and ignores their agency and labour. While being a sex worker is not directly made an offence, the law criminalizes the purchase of sexual services and thus renders illegal all commercial transactions for sex. Activists have argued that doing so has driven sex work further underground. Sex workers, and those wishing to purchase sexual services, must avoid police for fear of detection, apprehension and in the case of migrant women, deportation.

    Going underground means sex workers are at amplified risk of exploitation and physical harm because they have reduced bargaining power and cannot use safety measures, such as hiring third parties or implementing certain vetting and safety protocols in the spaces they would like to use, for fear of attracting the attention of police.

    CASWLR argues that the law’s criminalization of sex workers and third parties replicates and even exacerbates the harms of the former laws that the Court found violated sex workers’ Charter rights to security of the person.

    As a sex worker-led umbrella organization, CASWLR members have lived expertise and intimate knowledge of how these laws still harm sex workers in ways that can crucially inform the question of whether the laws are constitutional.

    Migrant sex workers

    Aside from direct criminalization, migrant sex workers may face additional and distinct consequences under immigration laws if they are charged, convicted or merely under criminal investigation. Migrant sex workers could lose their status in Canada, be detained and deported and be barred from re-entering the country. Further, it is not just sex workers themselves who are affected. Migrant third parties and their family members’ immigration status and future could be imperilled as well.

    These potential consequences may drive migrant sex workers to do their work in unsafe conditions to avoid detection by police and immigration enforcement. Sex workers are effectively forced into these precarious conditions because of the existing laws.

    In our view, loss of immigration status and deportation for engaging in non-exploitative, consensual activity are consequences of the current law that are not justified under the Charter because of the risks of violence and other harms that arise from avoiding detection.

    The Court, however, has decided it will not be considering this aspect at all and has excluded the only two organizations that work with migrant sex workers. The Court did grant intervener status to some organizations who will do a reasonable job in detailing some of the harms of the laws. However, none are sex worker-led and none represent migrant sex workers who may experience additional harms.

    The Supreme Court denied intervener status to these organizations because they perceived their interventions as providing new information that would unduly expand the case. Denying standing to these organizations, however, has the ultimate effect of not hearing from those directly impacted by the laws being examined.

    Courts are meant to consider the wider implications of how laws are interpreted, implemented and the potential ways they affect others. This is particularly important in constitutional challenges where it is both foreseeable and expected that legal decisions will have widely ranging effects on multiple groups.

    History of migrant exclusion

    Unfortunately, this exclusion is tied to the history of discrimination and stigmatization of Asian migrant sex workers, ostensibly for their own protection. Though many Canadians may have heard of Canada’s law that restricted Chinese immigration, including the infamous Head Tax, many may not know that it explicitly barred “any Chinese woman who is known to be a prostitute.”

    This law took influence from the very first immigration ban in the United States, the 1875 Page Act. This law barred the immigration of women from “any Oriental country” if they were “imported for the purposes of prostitution.” The exclusion and policing of Asian sex workers was justified by ideas of carceral humanitarianism, which proposes that exclusion and policing are a necessary way of protecting people from being trafficked.

    These so-called safety measures did not achieve either goal — in the past or present. Migrant sex workers who are directly targeted and harmed by the law were never directly asked what they desired or whether they needed saving.

    We see these long-standing patterns at work again today with the Supreme Court’s exclusion of migrant sex workers (and other sex workers) in R v. Kloubakov. The court is demonstrating that it has clearly not learned from history.

    When courts deny those most impacted by the law a hearing, they do not take into account all of the considerations they should. Cases can take years to reach the Supreme Court. When courts do take up the task to review law, it should welcome those directly affected by it, particularly when there are groups that have been traditionally marginalized from political and legal power.

    For courts to be effective, they must hear from those who can best explain how their rights are violated and excluded from the discussion. Trust in our justice system and our laws are diminished when those directly harmed by it have no say and no recourse.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. R v. Kloubakov: Supreme Court of Canada ignores sex workers in case on sex work – https://theconversation.com/r-v-kloubakov-supreme-court-of-canada-ignores-sex-workers-in-case-on-sex-work-240417

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: As the conflicts in the Middle East dramatically escalate, could Iran acquire a nuclear bomb?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran appears increasingly backed into a corner.

    Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s proxy network have focused on a number of objectives: eliminating key Hezbollah leaders, destroying their weapons and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathisers.

    Hezbollah has undoubtedly been weakened over the past few weeks, which presents a dilemma for Iran. Could this sustained pressure on its main militant proxy group push Iran towards finally acquiring a nuclear weapon?

    Iran’s deterrence strategy

    The use of armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy is a well-known approach employed by countries worldwide.

    Iran has successfully adopted this strategy for decades, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, various Iraqi militant factions, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    This strategy has allowed Iran to project power in the region and counter pressure from the United States, Israel and their allies, while deterring any direct military confrontation from its adversaries.

    Both Iran and Israel have until recently appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale war. Instead, they have adhered to certain rules of engagement in which they apply pressure on each other without escalating to all-out conflict. This is something neither side can afford.

    Iran has long avoided direct confrontation with Israel, even when Israel has targeted its groups in Syria and assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past few decades.

    Recently, however, this strategy has shifted. Feeling the impact of Israel’s prolonged assaults on its proxy network, Iran has responded by launching two direct missile attacks against Israel in the past six months.

    This indicates that as pressure on Iran’s proxies intensifies, Tehran may increasingly resort to alternative strategies to reestablish effective deterrence against Israel and its Western allies.

    Some analysts believe Israel may now be gaining what is called “escalation dominance” over Iran. As one group of experts has explained, this happens when one combatant escalates a conflict

    in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return, either because it has no escalation options or because the available options would not improve the adversary’s situation.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a “harsh response” to Iran’s latest missile attack against Israel in early October. This could push Iran further towards changing its deterrence strategy, particularly if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    Calls for a new nuclear strategy

    With pressure growing on Iran’s leaders, the regime is now openly discussing whether to declare a military nuclear program.

    This would represent a major shift in Iranian policy. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, with no intention of developing a military component. The US and its allies have contested this assertion.

    On October 8, the Iranian parliament announced it had received draft legislation for the “expansion of Iran’s nuclear industry”, which will be discussed in parliament. The nature of this expansion is not yet known – it’s unclear whether it will include a military program. However, recent statements by Iranian officials suggest such an agenda.

    Kamal Kharrazi, a senior politician and member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a high-ranking administrative assembly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, forewarned of a reconsideration of Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview in May, he said:

    Iran’s level of deterrence will be different if the existence of Iran is threatened. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but we will have to change our nuclear doctrine if such threat occurs.

    Calls in Iran for a revision of the country’s defence doctrine are growing louder. This week, nearly 40 lawmakers wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, which decides on Iran’s general security policy. They demanded the council reconsider the current nuclear policy, noting that Khamenei’s fatwa forbidding the production of a nuclear bomb could be subject to change due to current developments.

    In the same vein, Ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic revolution and former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, called last week for “enhancing the level of deterrence” against Israel. Iranian media interpreted this as referring to nuclear weapons.

    There have also been reports speculating that an earthquake in Iran last week could actually have been a nuclear bomb test.

    However, the US has said there is no evidence yet that Iran is moving towards building a nuclear weapon.

    Revived nuclear deal increasingly unlikely

    In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. This deal allowed it to pursue a civilian nuclear program with certain restrictions on its critical nuclear facilities. In exchange, the US and its allies agreed to lift sanctions on Iran.

    However, the US withdrew from the deal under then president Donald Trump in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Since then, Iran has barred several international inspectors from monitoring some of its nuclear sites.

    It is now believed to be just weeks away from producing enough weapons-grade material to build a bomb.

    Efforts to revive the nuclear negotiations have not gone far in recent years, though Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has suggested his government would be willing to engage again with the West and resume the talks.

    Yet, if Israel carries out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for last week’s missile attack, as has been speculated, Iran may deem it necessary to opt for the weaponisation of its nuclear program instead.

    If Iran declares a military nuclear program, it would do so with the expressed intention of restoring a deterrence balance with Israel that could prevent a full-scale war. Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, but has never confirmed it.

    However, such a decision is likely to have dire implications for both Iran and the region.

    It would undoubtedly lead to more international pressure and US sanctions on Iran, making it even more isolated. And it could spark a nuclear arms race in the region, as Saudi Arabia has already pledged to pursue a nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one.

    Shahram Akbarzadeh receives funding from Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with Middle east Council on Global Affairs (Doha).

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. As the conflicts in the Middle East dramatically escalate, could Iran acquire a nuclear bomb? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-conflicts-in-the-middle-east-dramatically-escalate-could-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-bomb-240893

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, The University of Melbourne

    Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by Hurricane Milton, within two weeks of Hurricane Helene. Climate change likely made their impacts worse.

    In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its long-range forecast for this season.

    It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average.

    So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones?

    The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and more intense rain and flooding.

    Climate change is making prediction harder

    Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence globally and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on observations and modelling.

    The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969.

    However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions.

    The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the 2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated.

    El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too

    Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

    Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast:

    La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025.

    Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder.

    The bureau’s ENSO outlook is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says:

    Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived.

    The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions.

    So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?

    If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.)

    However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage.

    If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity.

    Another factor is that the world’s oceans are much warmer than usual. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form.

    Many ocean heat records have been set recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate.

    Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes

    The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion.

    Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge.

    Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate.


    The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher Hamish Ramsay during the writing of this article.

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

    Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and The U.S. Office of Naval Research.

    Savin Chand receives funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and the UK-based Gallagher Research Centre (GRC).

    ref. Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict – https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but the ultimate power still belongs to Narendra Modi’s government

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leoni Connah, Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

    This year’s local elections in India’s northernmost territory of Jammu and Kashmir were the first since the national government controversially stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status in 2019. It’s also the first local election in Muslim-majority Kashmir since 2014.

    It was a significant moment for the region. The election will restore, at least partially, some degree of self-rule five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took it away.

    Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) was delivered a resounding defeat when the official results were released this week. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Congress alliance won 48 seats in the 90-seat regional legislature. The BJP won 29, mostly in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

    The former chief minister, Omar Abdullah, was also reinstated as leader. This was a surprising turn given he lost his race for a seat in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, in the national elections a few months ago.

    What’s changed?

    Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have been affected in the past by boycotts and low voter turnout, due largely to public mistrust of the government.

    There was also a sense of betrayal after Modi’s government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This had granted special privileges to local residents and gave the region its own constitution and ability to make its own laws.

    However, voter turnout in this year’s election reached 64%. And the participation of separatists and independent candidates suggested a change in attitude toward the political process.

    For the BJP, the elections are evidence that normalcy has returned to Kashmir after years of ongoing violence. Modi said in a tweet: “Many people claimed that the Jammu and Kashmir would burn if Article 370 was abrogated. However, it didn’t burn, it blossomed.”

    Modi had promised during the campaign that “statehood” would be restored, though he suggested this would be realised only if the BJP was victorious.

    With Modi’s opposition winning, some believed the election to be a de-facto referendum on the territory’s special status.

    The JKNC has always opposed the revocation of Article 370 and the stripping of Kashmir’s autonomy. The party has promised to work towards restoring that special status, as well as repealing the draconian Public Safety Act, which allows for the detention of people for up to two years without charge, and seeking amnesty for prisoners.

    In reality, however, the result won’t undo the revocation of Article 370. The new local assembly will have the power to make and amend laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, particularly in education and culture. But Abdullah will still need to seek the federally appointed lieutenant governor’s approval on any major decisions.

    Even if many Kashmiris would like to prevent the BJP from extending its reach into the region, the party still maintains some control from New Delhi.

    The BJP expanded the lieutenant governor’s powers over public order and policing. The lieutenant governor also has control over the regional anti-corruption bureau and the Directorate of Public Prosecutions.

    These powers were heavily criticised by the opposition parties in the region.

    Future of democracy?

    In recent years, Indian security forces have cracked down on the news media, social media and other forms of communication throughout the region, particularly any forms of Kashmiri solidarity with Palestine.

    Human rights advocates say abuses and repression continue in the region, and the climate of fear has had a detrimental impact on Kashmiri life.

    Statehood remains one of the biggest grievances for Kashmiri residents. Abdullah said himself that “restoration of full, undiluted statehood for [Jammu and Kashmir] is a prerequisite for these elections”.

    Only time will tell if these demands can be addressed, but there is hope a new local government might begin to change the bleak situation in Kashmir.

    As I spoke about in a recent podcast, there is optimism the new government will go a long way towards restoring some level of autonomy in Kashmir, as long as it is not obstructed by the lieutenant governor’s new powers.

    Leoni Connah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but the ultimate power still belongs to Narendra Modi’s government – https://theconversation.com/hope-returns-to-kashmir-after-elections-but-the-ultimate-power-still-belongs-to-narendra-modis-government-240990

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is pelvic organ prolapse and how is it treated?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer King, Senior Clinical Lecturer, University of Sydney

    Halfpoint/Shutterstock

    As a urogynaecologist I care exclusively for women with pelvic floor problems. These are the women with leaking bladders and weak supporting tissues allowing the vaginal walls to bulge outside.

    Pelvic organ prolapse can be distressing or embarrassing and interfere with everyday activities. But it’s also common. For many women treatment is simple, effective and doesn’t involve surgery.

    What is it pelvic organ prolapse?

    Pelvic organ prolapse occurs when the supporting muscles and ligaments holding up the vagina are weakened, allowing the vaginal tissues to sag or stretch. The pelvic organs behind the vaginal walls – such as the bladder, bowel and uterus – can then drop out of position.

    One or more organ may be involved. But other than being out of position, there is not necessarily any problem with how these organs function.

    Prolapse is usually described according to which organ has dropped, for example “bladder prolapse” (cystocele). Severity is graded according to extent the vaginal wall has descended from its previous position.

    Prolapse can occur when the pelvic muscles holding organs in place are weakened.
    Pepermpron/Shutterstock

    What does it feel like?

    Most women don’t know an organ or organs have prolapsed until they notice a protrusion from the vaginal opening. They may feel a soft lump bulging in the vagina when they’re washing.

    Many simply feel aware “something is coming down”.

    Other women may notice they can’t trust their bladder not to leak when they’re jumping on a trampoline or running at the gym. Or perhaps they find it harder to keep a tampon in position than it was before children.

    How common is it?

    Prolapse is very common and its likelihood increases with age. Based on routine vaginal examination (for example, for cervical screening), easily 50% of women in developed countries will be classified as having prolapse. Most of these will have no symptoms at all.

    When defined by symptoms such as a vaginal bulge or difficulty passing urine, around 5% will have specific symptoms.

    What causes pelvic organ prolapse?

    Pregnancy and vaginal birth generally cause physical changes, such as relaxation of the vaginal tissues. For most women these are minor, but for some, prolapse can seriously impact quality of life.

    After pregnancy some women may find they need to adjust physical activities – particularly high impact exercise or repetitive heavy lifting – as this can make prolapse symptoms more noticeable.

    Women who give birth via caesarean section are less likely to experience prolapse and incontinence. However as caesareans have their own risk of serious complications, they can’t be recommended purely to avoid pelvic floor issues.

    After vaginal delivery, ageing is the second-most common cause of prolapse. This is because the strength of the pelvic floor deteriorates as we age and especially after menopause.

    Excessive weight lifting and high-impact exercise can also weaken these muscles.

    Chronic lung problems, diabetes, high cholesterol, constipation and obesity further increase the severity of prolapse and incontinence.

    Some women also have genetically poorer quality connective tissues, making them more at risk.

    How is it treated?

    Severe prolapse, which persistently extends through the vagina and causes significant discomfort, is often managed with surgery.

    But it is not always required. In developed countries, only 6-18% of those diagnosed with pelvic prolapse will have surgery.

    For milder cases, a clinician will usually recommend pelvic floor therapy.

    Specific exercises can help strengthen the pelvic floor during pregnancy and after child birth.
    Cerrotalavan/Shutterstock

    Structured pelvic floor muscle exercises (generally working with a therapist over time) are effective as an initial treatment when prolapse has occurred. Pelvic floor training during late pregnancy can also be used to treat and prevent further prolapse or urinary incontinence.




    Read more:
    Men have pelvic floors too – and can benefit when they exercise them regularly


    Interestingly, general body strength and fitness does not translate into strong pelvic floor muscles – only specific exercises do this. But keeping your weight under control and managing other health conditions can help reduce symptoms.

    Intravaginal support devices, called pessaries, can also substantially reduce symptoms. These are usually silicone rings or discs to help support the vaginal walls. They can be fitted by doctors, nurses or physiotherapists and can often be managed by women themselves.

    Pessaries are often made of silicone.
    Pepermpron/Shutterstock

    Prolapse can also cause mental health distress. Some women may find their body image suffers, and they may experience anxiety or depression which needs specific management.

    What does surgery involve?

    In severe cases, a clinician might recommend surgery if conservative management (such as pelvic floor muscle training) has been ineffective.

    Surgery can also be necessary in those uncommon cases where the prolapse is affecting kidney or bowel function. In these situations surgery can restore quality of life.

    Surgery for prolapse can be performed through the abdomen (usually keyhole approach) or vaginally. For most women, mesh is not required and the surgery involves reshaping and reattaching the stretched tissues to strong ligaments.

    Unfortunately this is not always successful, particularly when the tissues are very weak. Approximately 25% of women will need further surgery.

    In 2017, the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration withdrew their approval for vaginal mesh products for prolapse, after safety concerns. There has since been a marked reduction in surgery for prolapse and urinary incontinence.

    However we have not seen a corresponding increase in non-surgical treatments, so we can only assume many women are simply not seeking treatment at all.

    We do need to continue working towards better and safer products to improve the durability of our pelvic floor repairs. But in the meantime we must also continue to provide individualised care for every affected woman.

    For many, maintaining pelvic floor strength and a healthy lifestyle will be enough to return to and enjoy their normal activities. The first step is to talk to your GP, who can explain what options will work best for you.

    Jennifer King is affiliated with the International Urogynecological Association – secretary

    ref. What is pelvic organ prolapse and how is it treated? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-pelvic-organ-prolapse-and-how-is-it-treated-239199

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government’s social media ban for kids will exempt ‘low-risk’ platforms. What does that mean?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    BAZA Production/Shutterstock

    In a speech to the New South Wales and South Australian government social media summit today, Federal Minister for Communications Michelle Rowland announced more details of how the federal government’s proposed social media ban would actually work.

    The government first announced the ban last month, shortly after SA said it will ban children under 14 from social media. But experts have heavily criticised the idea, and this week more than 120 experts from Australia and overseas wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and state and territory premiers urging a rethink.

    Despite this, the government appears to be ploughing ahead with the proposed ban. The details Rowland announced today do not meaningfully address many of the criticisms made over the past few weeks.

    In fact, they actually raise new problems.

    What are the details of the social media ban?

    In her speech, Rowland said the government will amend the Online Safety Act to “place the onus on platforms, not parents or young people” to enforce the proposed social media ban.

    The changes will be implemented over 12 months to give industry and the regulator time to implement key processes.

    The government says it “will set parameters to guide platforms in designing social media that allows connections, but not harms, to flourish”. These parameters could address some of the “addictive” features of these platforms, for instance by limiting potential harms by prioritising content feeds from accounts people follow, or making age-appropriate versions of their apps.

    The government is also considering an:

    exemption framework to accommodate access for social media services that demonstrate a low risk of harm to children.

    The problem with “low risk”

    But allowing young people to access social media platforms that have a demonstrated “low risk of harm” is fraught with issues.

    Risk is difficult to define – especially when it comes to social media.

    As I explained earlier this year around potential harms of artificial intelligence, risk “sits on a spectrum and is not absolute”. Risk cannot be determined simply by considering a social media platform itself, or by knowing the age of the person using it. What’s risky for one person may not be risky for someone else.

    How, then, will the government determine which social media platforms have a “low risk of harm”?

    Simply focusing on technical changes to social media platform design in determining what constitutes “low risk” will not address key areas of potential harm. This may give parents a false sense of security when it comes to the “low-risk” solutions technology companies offer.

    Let’s assume for a moment that Meta’s new “teen-friendly” Instagram accounts qualify as having a “low risk of harm” and young people would still be allowed to use them.

    The teen version of Instagram will be set to private by default and have stronger content restrictions in place than regular accounts. It will also allow parents to see the categories of content children are accessing, and the accounts they follow, but will still require parental oversight.

    But this doesn’t solve the risk problem.

    There will still be harmful content on social media. And young people will still be exposed to it when they are old enough to have an unrestricted account, potentially without the support and guidance they need to safely engage with it. If children don’t gain necessary skills for navigating social media at an early age, potential harms may be deferred, rather than addressed and safely negotiated with parental support.

    A better approach

    The harmful content on social media platforms doesn’t just pose a risk to young people. It poses a risk to everybody – adults included. For this reason, the government’s heavy focus on encouraging platforms to demonstrate a “low risk of harm” only to young people seems a little misguided.

    A better approach would be to strive to ensure social media platforms are safe for all users, regardless of their age. Ensuring platforms have mechanisms for users to report potentially harmful content – and for platforms to remove inappropriate content – is crucial for keeping people safe.

    Platforms should also ensure users can block accounts, such as when a person is being bullied or harassed, with consequences for account holders found to engage in such harmful behaviour.

    It is important that government requirements for “low-risk” accounts include these and other mechanisms to identify and limit harmful content at source. Tough penalties for tech companies that fail to comply with legislation are also needed.

    The federal government could also provide extra resources for parents and children, to help them to navigate social media content safely.

    A report released this week by the New South Wales government showed 91% of parents with children aged 5–17 believe “more should be done to teach young people and their parents about the possible harms of social media”.

    The SA government appears to be heeding this message. Today it also announced a plan for more social media education in schools.

    Providing more proactive support like this, rather than pursuing social media bans, would go a long way to protecting young Australians while also ensuring they have access to helpful and supportive social media content.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and a former President of the Association of Information Science and Technology.

    ref. The government’s social media ban for kids will exempt ‘low-risk’ platforms. What does that mean? – https://theconversation.com/the-governments-social-media-ban-for-kids-will-exempt-low-risk-platforms-what-does-that-mean-241120

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: High skills, low protection: the legal hurdles for foreign workers in Indonesia

    Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Wayne Palmer, Senior Research Fellow, Bielefeld University

    ilikeyellow/Shutterstock

    Developing countries like Indonesia use foreign high-skilled and high-wage workers to drive economic growth and innovation. However, protection of their legal rights is often neglected, affecting these workers’ productivity and well-being and Indonesia’s reputation as a destination country for employment.

    My research delves into the flaws of Indonesia’s labour market institutions, such as the national labour dispute settlement system, revealing that current mechanisms are inadequate in protecting the rights of high-skilled foreign workers.

    The study

    My findings show the national dispute settlement system exhibits significant systemic shortcomings, such as processing cases slowly and siding with employers, which limit its capacity to protect all workers effectively. But disputes involving foreign workers are further complicated by the fact that immigration law allows employers to cancel residence permits, meaning that the government requires the workers to leave the country even though the workers may have been unfairly dismissed.

    Foreign workers are mainly from Northeast Asia (China, Japan and Korea), and their use on investment-tied projects coupled with Indonesia’s downstreaming programme will ensure their numbers continue to grow. In 2023, the Indonesian government issued 168,048 permits for foreigners to work in Indonesia with the top three destinations being Central Sulawesi (18,678), Jakarta (13,862) and West Java (10,807). By July 2024, the government had already issued more than 14% more permits than by the same time the previous year.

    My study examined 92 labour disputes involving foreign workers between 2006 (when the new national dispute settlement system was implemented) and 2022, which were settled by the Industrial Relations Court. One additional dispute was filed in 2023, but the Industrial Relations Court has not yet published the settlement despite a legal requirement to do so.

    I complemented these court settlements with 98 qualitative interviews with other stakeholders, including policymakers, labour rights activists, legal professionals, and other foreign workers, such as foreign spouses, remote workers and digital nomads.

    As in other countries too, the number of registered labour disputes is only the tip of the iceberg, as workers tend to cut their losses and move on rather than invest time, energy and limited financial resources in challenging their better-resourced employers.

    Employers were all Indonesian companies, so no foreign workers who filed a lawsuit worked for a multinational company, and those who did so had at least 20 nationalities.


    CC BY

    In terms of geographical distribution, the studied disputes were settled in 13 local jurisdictions, and were mostly lodged by workers rather than employers.

    The nature of the disputes mostly involved claims that an employment contract had been terminated prematurely (87 cases), while a much smaller number involved resignation (4 cases) or were unknown (1 case). Of the 92 claims, 83 were initiated by workers, and eight by an employer. In one case, the lodging party was not recorded in the final decision.

    Hiring a private lawyer

    Employers used the Immigration Law to undermine the protective role of the Manpower Law – as it stands foreign workers are only entitled to employment protection if they hold a valid residence permit, which employers can and do shorten. Doing so shows that the Indonesian government prioritizes the flexibility of employers at the expense of employment protection for foreign workers.

    In at least 92% cases, foreign workers used paid assistance of a private lawyer to represent themselves at formal meetings and hearings required by the Disputes Settlement Law, the cost of which could be hefty.

    As one foreign worker explained:

    It’s always in the back of your mind, to do whatever to make employers happy if you want to stay. No matter what the work permit and contract say, they can ask immigration to kick us out within a week!“

    A retired government official responsible for designing policy regarding foreign workers was surprised when he heard this, explaining that:

    I thought they could look after themselves because they earn such high wages. Well, higher than the average Indonesian worker, that is.

    Hiring a private lawyer is the only way to represent themselves throughout the dispute resolution process because they need to leave Indonesia once they are fired. Not having the legal right to remain in Indonesia makes it very difficult – even impossible – to do it without them.

    Addressing institutional failures

    Engaging a private lawyer served as an ‘institutional fix’ that enabled most foreign workers to engage with Indonesia’s labour dispute settlement system by attending formal meetings and hearings, as well as filling out required paperwork and sending essential letters and replies.

    Addressing this institutional failure requires a shift in law and policy. Firstly, legal reforms are essential to ensure that immigration and employment laws are integrated to enable foreign workers to have access to legal processes intended to help protect labour rights. At a minimum, this would involve amending policy to prevent employers from cancelling residence permits so that foreign workers need to leave the country prematurely.

    Alternatively, the Directorate-General of Immigration could still permit employers to do so, but then provide the affected foreign workers with a limited-stay visa so that they can remain in Indonesia to engage with the legal process. The Hong Kong Immigration Department does this for Indonesian migrant workers.

    Secondly, there is a need for enhanced support systems that provide immediate and effective assistance to foreign workers. Government agencies tasked with settling labour disputes, such as local manpower offices and the Industrial Relations Court, should be equipped with adequate resources and trained personnel to handle migrant labour issues. Doing so would decrease the reliance of foreign workers on private lawyers.

    Failure to protect the employment rights of foreign workers has the potential to damage Indonesia’s reputation as a destination country for employment. Such damage could undermine Indonesia’s ambitious plans to build a new capital city (Ibu Kota Nusantara) with the assistance of foreign workers, and undermine the government’s downstreaming programme, which helps Indonesia earn more from the export of raw minerals.

    Wayne Palmer has received research funding from the International Labour Organization, the Freedom Fund, and the Australian Research Council.

    ref. High skills, low protection: the legal hurdles for foreign workers in Indonesia – https://theconversation.com/high-skills-low-protection-the-legal-hurdles-for-foreign-workers-in-indonesia-230795

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa needs more nautical scientists and marine engineers – if you love the sea these may be the careers for you

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ekaterina Rzyankina, Lecturer, Cape Peninsula University of Technology

    Careers in the maritime industry can take graduates all over the world. Igor-Kardasov

    When most people are asked to picture an engineer at work, they probably imagine a civil engineer in a hard hat at a construction site, a chemical engineer in a laboratory or an electrical engineer examining a complex circuit board. Very few, I’m willing to bet, visualise someone aboard a ship.

    But, for those drawn both to engineering and a seafaring life, marine engineering and nautical science are ideal careers – especially in a country like South Africa, uniquely positioned where the Atlantic and Indian Oceans converge.

    Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. That means both marine engineers and nautical scientists are crucial to global trade, transportation and resource management. These professionals play a critical role in ensuring that vessels operate reliably, comply with environmental regulations and navigate safely through the world’s oceans.

    South Africa’s Department of Higher Education does not distinguish between different types of engineering when collecting statistics about graduates. However, those of us in the marine engineering and nautical science space in academia can confirm the numbers are low. At my own institution, the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) in Cape Town, between ten and 20 people graduate each year from these programmes. At another, Nelson Mandela University in the Eastern Cape province, around seven people graduate in these fields each year. With so few people studying these disciplines, the skills they impart are in high demand. The government’s list of scarce skills for 2024 includes “marine engineering technologist”.

    I’m an engineering lecturer in the Department of Maritime Studies at CPUT. There, I teach in both the Bachelor of Nautical Science and Marine Engineering programmes, lecturing on a variety of subjects, including mathematics and applied thermodynamics (the branch of physics that deals with the relationships between heat, energy and work).

    Watching my students complete their degrees and start careers in marine engineering or nautical science has made it clear that this work offers a blend of adventure, technical challenge, and the opportunity to contribute to an industry that is essential to global commerce and environmental stewardship.

    Whether it’s designing cutting-edge marine technology or navigating the world’s vast oceans, the maritime field promises a fulfilling professional journey.

    Theory and practice

    Three universities – CPUT, Nelson Mandela University and the Durban University of Technology in KwaZulu-Natal – offer maritime studies courses aimed at those who intend to work at sea. A fourth, the University of KwaZulu-Natal, offers this degree with a focus on maritime law and logistics. There are also some specialised training institutions, among them the South African Maritime Safety Authority, that provide various qualifications and certifications.

    You’ll need to have taken mathematics, physical science and English in your school-leaving matric year, and to have passed them well. (Contact individual universities to find out their precise degree requirements.) A strong interest in and commitment to a career at sea or in the maritime industry more broadly is crucial.

    Being a strong swimmer can be an advantage. But it is not necessarily a requirement. Students who do not know how to swim will typically have the opportunity to learn and develop their swimming skills as part of their training.

    There are practical and theoretical components to these degrees. At our Granger Bay campus near the V&A Waterfront in Cape Town, for instance, we’ve set up a survival centre – a practical facility where students receive training to equip them for life at sea. It is fully equipped with three fully enclosed lifeboats, two open lifeboats, a rigid capsule, two fast rescue craft, a heated 12 x 7 metre pool, an underwater escape training dunker, various life rafts, life jackets, immersion suits, and more.




    Read more:
    Seasickness: we built a digital monitoring system on a South African research ship to help manage it


    On the theoretical side, a Bachelor of Nautical Science programme focuses on the navigation and operation of ships. It encompasses navigation techniques, ship stability, cargo handling, meteorology, and maritime laws. This prepares students for careers as navigators in the merchant navy. (Not to be confused with the military navy – a merchant navy is a country’s commercial shipping industry, which includes all the cargo and passenger ships that are registered under that nation and used for trade, transport and other non-military purposes.)

    Some of our graduates have gone on to become ship’s masters, also called captains – the highest ranking officer on any ship.

    Marine engineering programmes, meanwhile, focus on the design, development, operation and maintenance of the mechanical systems and equipment used on ships and other marine vessels. This includes everything from engines and propulsion systems to refrigeration and steering mechanisms. Marine engineers ensure that these systems function efficiently and safely. They often work closely with naval architects to integrate these technologies into new ship designs or retrofit them into existing vessels.

    Ample opportunities

    Oceanic African countries, like South Africa, need people with these skills to harness the full potential of their maritime resources.




    Read more:
    What South Africa can do to harness a neglected resource – its oceans


    The development of local expertise in maritime engineering and nautical science is essential for ensuring safe and efficient maritime operations. It also helps to protect marine environments and contributes to global maritime trade. Skilled professionals in these fields help these countries take advantage of their maritime assets, promote economic growth and enhance their roles in international commerce.

    As a proud lecturer, I am thrilled to see my students progress and develop both internationally and locally. Many have gone on to work in various exciting and prestigious roles around the world. Some have become ship’s masters, navigating and managing large vessels on international waters, while others have taken on critical roles in maritime operations, port management and logistics in countries such as Singapore, Norway and the United Kingdom. Some have pursued careers in maritime law and policy. Their career paths reflect the diverse and global opportunities available in the maritime industry.

    Ekaterina Rzyankina is affiliated with the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT).

    ref. South Africa needs more nautical scientists and marine engineers – if you love the sea these may be the careers for you – https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-more-nautical-scientists-and-marine-engineers-if-you-love-the-sea-these-may-be-the-careers-for-you-234104

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gazing at your dog can connect your brain with theirs, research shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jacqueline Boyd, Senior Lecturer in Animal Science, Nottingham Trent University

    Reshetnikov_art/Shutterstock

    It might sound far-fetched, but recent research suggests that dogs’ and humans’ brains synchronise when they look at each other.

    This research, conducted by researchers in China, is the first time that “neural coupling” between different species has been witnessed.

    Neural coupling is when the brain activity of two or more individuals aligns during an interaction. For humans, this is often in response to a conversation or story.

    Neural coupling has been observed when members of the same species interact, including mice, bats, humans and other primates. This linking of brains is probably important in shaping responses during social encounters and might result in complex behaviour that would not be seen in isolation, such as enhancing teamwork or learning.

    When social species interact, their brains “connect”. But this case of it happening between different species raises interesting considerations about the subtleties of the human-dog relationship and might help us understand each other a little better.

    What’s new puppy dog?

    The dog was one of the first animals humans domesticated. And they have a long history of sharing time and space with us. Dogs are not only companions for us, they also have key roles in our society, including therapeutic support, detecting diseases and protecting and herding livestock.

    As a result, dogs have developed some impressive skills, including the ability to recognise and respond to our emotional state.

    In the recent study, the researchers studied neural coupling using brain-activity recording equipment called non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG). This uses headgear containing electrodes that detect neural signals – in this case, from the beagles and humans involved in the study.

    Looking into those irresistible eyes could help deepen your bond.
    Wirestock Creators/Shuterstock

    Researchers examined what happened to these neural signals when dogs and people were isolated from each other, and in the presence of each other, but without looking at each other. Dogs and humans were then allowed to interact with each other.

    Look into my eyes

    When dogs and humans gazed at each other and the dogs were stroked, their brain signals synchronised. The brain patterns in key areas of the brain associated with attention, matched in both dog and person.

    Dogs and people who became more familiar with each other over the five days of the study had increased synchronisation of neural signals. Previous studies of human-human interactions have found increased familiarity between people also resulted in more closely matching brain patterns. So the depth of relationship between people and dogs may make neural coupling stronger.

    The ability of dogs to form strong attachments with people is well known. A 2022 study found the presence of familiar humans could reduce stress responses in young wolves, the dog’s close relative. Forming neural connections with people might be one of the ways by which the dog-human relationship develops.

    The researchers also studied the potential effect of differences in the brain on neural coupling. They did this by including dogs with a mutation in a gene called Shank3, which can lead to impaired neural connectivity in brain areas linked with attention. This gene is responsible for making a protein that helps promote communication between cells, and is especially abundant in the brain. Mutations in Shank3 have also been associated with autism spectrum disorder in humans.

    Study dogs with the Shank3 mutation did not show the same level of matching brain signals with people, as those without the mutation. This was potentially because of impaired neural signalling and processing.

    However, when researchers gave the study dogs with the Shank3 mutation, a single dose of LSD (a hallucinogenic drug), they showed increased levels of attention and restored neural coupling with humans.

    LSD is known to promote social behaviour in mice and humans, although clearly there are ethical concerns about such treatment.

    The researchers were clear that there remains much to be learned about neural coupling between dogs and humans.

    It might well be the case that looking into your dog’s eyes means that your respective brain signals will synchronise and enhance your connection. The more familiar you are with each other, the stronger it becomes, it seems.

    So the next time a dog gazes at you with their puppy dog eyes, remember you could be enhancing your relationship.

    Jacqueline Boyd is affiliated with The Kennel Club (UK) through membership and contributor to the Health Advisory Group. Jacqueline is a full member of the Association of Pet Dog Trainers (APDT #01583) and she also writes, consults and coaches on canine matters on an independent basis, in addition to her academic affiliation at Nottingham Trent University.

    ref. Gazing at your dog can connect your brain with theirs, research shows – https://theconversation.com/gazing-at-your-dog-can-connect-your-brain-with-theirs-research-shows-239859

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Post-flood recovery: lessons from Germany and Nigeria on how to help people cope with loss and build resilience

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University

    Extreme climate events — floods, droughts and heatwaves — are not just becoming more frequent; they are also more severe.

    It’s important to understand how communities can recover from these events in ways that also build resilience to future events.

    In a recent study, we analysed how communities affected by the extreme flood events of 2021 in Germany’s Ahr Valley and in Lagos, Nigeria, grappled with recovery from floods.

    Our aim was to identify the factors – and combinations of factors – that served as barriers (or enablers) to recovery from disasters.

    We found that financial limitations, political interests and administrative hurdles led to prioritising immediate relief and reconstruction over long-term sustainable recovery.

    In both cases immediate and long-term recovery efforts were siloed, underfunded and focused on reconstruction to pre-disaster conditions.

    We concluded from our findings that the success of recovery efforts lies in balancing short-term relief and a long-term vision. While immediate aid is essential after a disaster, true resilience hinges on proactive measures that address systemic challenges and empower communities to build a better future.

    Recovery should not be merely action-oriented and building back infrastructure (engineering). It should also include insights in other areas, like governance and psychology, helping people to deal with losses and to heal.

    What worked

    To understand the recovery pathways of the two regions, we reviewed relevant literature, newspaper articles and government documents. We also interviewed government agencies, NGO representatives, volunteers and local residents in the communities where these floods occurred.

    We found that in the Ahr Valley, recovery wasn’t just about rebuilding structures, it was about empowering individuals.

    Through initiatives like mental health and first aid courses, residents learned to support one another. This fostered a sense of community and resilience that was essential for meeting the emotional challenges posed by the disaster.

    The focus on rebuilding with a sustainable vision also included environmental initiatives. For example, a type of heating system was put in place that didn’t rely on fossil fuels.

    Not only did this reduce carbon emissions, it also served as a symbol of hope. It showed there was an opportunity to create a more sustainable and environmentally friendly community.

    In Lagos, too, residents found strength in community and innovation. Grassroots efforts using sustainable materials like bamboo and palm wood highlighted the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the people. Faith-based organisations provided material aid as well as emotional and spiritual support. This reinforced the bonds that held the community together.

    Each community faced unique challenges. But they shared a common thread: the importance of adaptive governance – flexible decision-making and strong community ties.

    For example, established building codes in the Ahr Valley provided a framework for reconstruction, ensuring that new structures were resilient and safe.

    In Lagos, the absence of strong government support highlighted the critical role of community organisations in providing services and fostering a sense of shared responsibility.

    What needs improvment

    In both the Ahr Valley and Lagos, the journey towards recovery has been fraught with obstacles as well.

    In the Ahr Valley, bureaucratic red tape has become a formidable barrier. Residents, eager to rebuild their lives, find themselves entangled in a complex web of regulations and lengthy approval processes. This has delayed their access to insurance and recovery funds. Waiting for months or even years has eroded hope and fuelled a sense of abandonment.

    Meanwhile, in Lagos, insufficient government support has left communities to fend for themselves, creating a breeding ground for uncertainty and conflict.

    Land tenure disputes, fuelled by a lack of clear property rights, sow seeds of distrust and hinder resettlement efforts. Political disagreements complicate the picture, as competing interests divert attention and resources away from those who need them most.

    In Lagos, none of the respondents reported having insurance to help them to recover from disaster-related losses.

    While some residents in the Ahr Valley did have insurance, many were under-insured.

    The Ahr Valley’s building codes offer a framework for reconstruction. But it’s clear that processes should be streamlined so communities can take ownership of their recovery.

    In Lagos, the importance of robust social safety nets is clear. Partnerships between communities and authorities are also needed.

    A different approach

    Recovery isn’t a separate process that occurs after disasters only. It should be seen as an essential part of managing risks. It’s important to understand what recovery involves and what resources are needed.

    This will help reduce future risks and increase resilience after extreme events.

    Governments should encourage flexible governance structures that value community voices and local knowledge to enable recovery. A good example is the New Orleans Recovery Authority, established after Hurricane Katrina. It involved local residents and city officials in planning and rebuilding efforts.

    Grassroots efforts in Lagos demonstrated the power of sustainable materials and community-led initiatives. Seeing things from the community’s point of view can help tailor solutions that fit the situation and adapt to evolving challenges.

    Training and capacity-building programmes empower communities to be active in their own recovery.

    Mental health and first aid courses were successful in the Ahr Valley. Equipping individuals with skills in sustainable practices and disaster preparedness helps weave a social fabric capable of weathering future storms.

    Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at, the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

    Saskia E. Werners works with United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). She is grateful to have received research grants in support of her research on climate change adaptation and recovery.

    ref. Post-flood recovery: lessons from Germany and Nigeria on how to help people cope with loss and build resilience – https://theconversation.com/post-flood-recovery-lessons-from-germany-and-nigeria-on-how-to-help-people-cope-with-loss-and-build-resilience-240260

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A realistic statue of Mary giving birth was criticized, then vandalized − but saints and artists have often reimagined Christ’s birth

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Virginia Raguin, Distinguished Professor of Humanities Emerita, College of the Holy Cross

    A silhouette of onlookers in front of Esther Strauss’ sculpture ‘Crowning.’ Michel M. Raguin with cooperation of the Mariendom Linz , CC BY

    A sculpture of the Virgin Mary showing her giving birth to Jesus was recently attacked and beheaded. Called “Crowning” by the artist Esther Strauss, the sculpture had been part of a temporary exhibition of art outside the Catholic St. Mary Cathedral in Linz, Austria.

    The sculpture was controversial for its explicit depiction of birth; an online petition seeking its removal received more than 12,000 signatures. Strauss’ work was part of a project that sought to look at gender equality and the role of women, designed to honor the 100th anniversary of the cathedral’s consecration to the Virgin Mary. The exhibition opened on June 27, 2024, and the statue was vandalized a few days later.

    My research as a historian of art has shown me that there has never been only one way of depicting the birth of Christ.

    Depiction of birth in early texts

    Early Christian writings reveal that the birth of Christ was of keen interest and reflected ideas of the day.

    A widely read text from the mid-second century, called the The Protoevangelium of James, gives details about the life of the Virgin and infancy of Christ. As women of that time gave birth with the aid of midwives, the text explained that the Mother of God also was helped in her labor. Sections 19-20 of the text give details about Joseph contacting two midwives.

    One woman is said to have doubted the virgin birth. After she inserted her finger into Mary’s vagina, her hands withered. An illustration in a French prayer book from Paris dating to about 1490-1500 shows the midwife with missing hands. The story explained that her hands grew back after she touched the child Christ.

    Menologion of Basil II, an 11th-century illuminated Byzantine manuscript with 430 miniatures depicting the Nativity of Christ, now in the Vatican library.
    Via Wikimedia Commons

    The representation of midwives, as seen in an 11th-century manuscript from Constantinople, is still common in the Eastern church.

    Ideas change over time and place

    New modes of spirituality in later centuries brought changes in art. St. Bridget of Sweden, who founded a new order of nuns, left a large body or writing, including what she believed were revelations from God. One of her revelations included a vision of Christ’s birth she experienced in Bethlehem in 1371–72.

    Although Bridget had given birth eight times, she described Mary’s delivery as “in the twinkling of any eye.” Bridget said she “was unable to notice or discern how or in what member (Mary) was giving birth.” By “member” she may have meant that she did not know through what part of Mary’s body Jesus emerged. Many paintings between the 15th and 16th centuries adopted her vision and showed the child surrounded by light and the Virgin calmly worshipping him.

    A painting by Belgian artist Hugo van der Goes, in about 1475, follows Bridget’s vision of the birth. Instead of being “wrapped in swaddling clothes,” Christ lies naked, perfectly clean, in the “great and ineffable light” that Bridget described.

    Each era and community produces art that speaks to its own priorities. Fifteenth-century Italy introduced traditions of a miraculous childbirth that were different from a realistic tradition cherished by early Christians of the second century. I would argue that “Crowning” is but one more example of such cultural change. Here, Mary is an inspiration for other women, physically strong and capable even in the difficult process of giving birth.

    The sculpture, when intact, was barely 15 inches tall, a clear indication that it was not made for large-scale public veneration. It was a meditative image designed for a one-on-one encounter – for those who decided to engage.

    Virginia Raguin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A realistic statue of Mary giving birth was criticized, then vandalized − but saints and artists have often reimagined Christ’s birth – https://theconversation.com/a-realistic-statue-of-mary-giving-birth-was-criticized-then-vandalized-but-saints-and-artists-have-often-reimagined-christs-birth-240759

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tory MPs have accidentally knocked out their own man – and reminded voters why they lost the last election

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ben Worthy, Lecturer in Politics, Birkbeck, University of London

    The Conservative party leadership ballot is a private affair. The MPs don’t have to reveal who they voted for if they don’t want to. And given how badly they appear to have bungled their final round of voting in this contest, it seems unlikely we’ll ever know what really happened.

    James Cleverly was the firm favourite among MPs, and yet an attempt to manoeuvre him into the final two against the candidate his supporters felt most sure of beating in the final run-off, when party members vote, seems to have backfired.

    It would appear Cleverly and his supporters forgot Lyndon B. Johnson’s first rule of politics – learn to count. As a result, party members now have a choice between two rightwing candidates, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. Both are popular among members but less electable and palatable for the wider public. The debacle has exposed (not for the first time) the problems with the electoral system.

    Cleverly was seen as the unifier of the party, with the ministerial experience and communication skills to help with a transformation. He had wowed party conference with a well-calibrated speech hinting that the party needed to “normalise” to regain trust. Yet his record leaves questions as to exactly how good his communication skills are in reality. He had made several “jokes”, which were not jokes at all – just offensive comments – and reportedly described his own government’s immigration policy as “batshit”.

    A Telegraph article just before his shock loss in the parliamentary party vote feared he would “sign the death warrant” of the party as a “middle-of-the-road bluffer who tickles the tummies of members of the parliamentary party by flattering them that their historic defeat was not so bad after all”. Yet judging by the audible gasps when the result was announced, Tory MPs were shocked at how they had messed the vote up. Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour reacted with glee at the news.

    Tory MPs react to the news that they’ve inadvertently knocked out their favourite candidate.

    The final two

    Badenoch has less ministerial experience than Cleverly but is loved by the Tory party as a battler and is now the favourite to win. The same “death warrant” article called Badenoch a “Warrior Queen”, but that cuts both ways. Badenoch, by channelling her inner Thatcher, is pitching herself as a fighter taking on the forces of reaction within and without. But, to quote another Tory, the Duke Of Wellington, Thatcher would only fight battles she knew she could win. Badenoch’s battle seem rather less focused, and her war on the forces of woke now includes new mothers and civil servants (10% of whom, in her view, should be in prison).

    Another recent article, this time in the Guardian spoke of how “she often finds it hard to get through an interview without patronising or arguing with the presenter in a manner that reinforces claims she’s divisive and abrasive”. At the same time, her attempt to tell “hard truths” saw her publishing a lengthy pamphlet featuring some triangles – seemingly explaining electoral realignment – which no one could understand. Not ideal attributes for a leader.

    So far in this contest, Jenrick’s most notable interventions have been to grandstand about the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), compete to be toughest on immigration, and (and we need to follow the logic slowly here) argue that the ECHR is causing UK special forces to kill instead of capture terrorists. Jenrick is the living embodiment of the old Groucho Marx joke “those are my principles, and if you don’t like them…well, I have others”. He has made either a Damascene or cynical journey from squishy centre to hard right just ahead of this contest. What does he really believe? No one is sure.

    The reasons for the Tories’ recent catastrophic election loss are in plain sight. Voters saw the Conservative governments as a toxic combination of poor delivery, scandals and being out of touch. The 2024 defeat was a combination of Boris Johnson’s immorality and Liz Truss’s incompetence. Rishi Sunak then finally fractured his own coalition with a self-defeating immigration policy. None of the candidates have addressed the reasons for the loss and the final two are evidently still in denial.

    But it is the Tory members who are voting here. Their version of events is that disunity and a failure to deliver on immigration lost them power. Members may well be torn, as political scientist Tim Bale points out, between values and electability – though with Cleverly out, this latter may be a problem.

    Peering through the fog of the contest, there are two things which are very likely. First, Johnson’s shifting of the party to the right, and his closer alignment of the Tory party with the remnants of UKIP is now more evident, and will be further deepened by whoever wins. While Badenoch and Jenrick differ on whether they should beat or join Reform, the Tory party is now on the latter’s territory. There is unlikely to be any Tory “hard truths” to address the electorate’s loss of trust in the party, but instead the talking points will be culture wars, immigration, and leaving the ECHR.

    Second, as a result, the party will move further from the centre ground, and away from the average voter, and their concerns. The mess the parliamentary party has made of the contest and the long shadow of dysfunctional leadership have served only to remind voters of the reasons why the party was thrown out of office in July. Peering through his snazzy new glasses, Starmer can see his bad week just got a lot better.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Tory MPs have accidentally knocked out their own man – and reminded voters why they lost the last election – https://theconversation.com/tory-mps-have-accidentally-knocked-out-their-own-man-and-reminded-voters-why-they-lost-the-last-election-240983

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Dark energy: could the mysterious force seen as constant actually vary over cosmic time?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Nichol, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Executive Dean, University of Surrey

    Globular cluster NGC 2005. ESA/Hubble & Nasa, F. Niederhofer, L. Girardi, CC BY-SA

    As I finished my PhD in 1992, the universe was full of mystery – we didn’t even know exactly what it is made of. One could argue that cosmologists had made little progress in our understanding of these basic facts since the discovery of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the afterglow of the Big Bang, in the 1960s.

    I left the UK after my doctoral studies to begin a research career in the US, where I was lucky to be recruited to work on a new experiment called the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). This new survey embraced advances in digital technologies with the ambition of measuring the “redshifts” (how light becomes more red if a source appears to move away from you) of a million galaxies.

    These redshifts were then used to measure distances, and allowed cosmologists to map the three-dimensional structure of the universe.

    One cosmic puzzle in the 1980s, based on the pioneering CfA Redshift Survey of Margaret Geller and John Huchra, was the significant lumpiness of galaxies, and therefore matter, in our cosmic neighbourhood. Galaxies were clustered together across a wide range of scales, with evidence for coherent “superclusters” of galaxies spanning over 30 million light years in length.


    This article is part of our series Cosmology in crisis? which uncovers the greatest problems facing cosmologists today – and discusses the implications of solving them.


    It was important to know how such superclusters could have formed from the smooth CMB, as it would tell us the total amount of matter in the universe and, more intriguingly, what that matter was made of. That was assuming the only force in play was gravity.

    By the end of the first phase of the SDSS, we had achieved our goal of a million redshifts. This data was used to discover many superclusters across the universe, including the amazing “Sloan Great Wall”, which remains one of the largest known coherent structures in the universe, over a billion light years in length.

    Type 1A supernova remnant.
    Nasa/CXC/U.Texas

    I am lucky to have lived through this amazing era of cosmic discovery around the turn of the century. Surveys like SDSS, combined with new observations of the CMB and searches for distant exploding stars known as Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa), coincided to deliver an emphatic answer to the question: “What is the universe made of?”

    The discovery of dark energy

    From 1999 to 2004, the cosmological community came together to agree that the universe was 5% normal (baryonic) matter, 25% dark matter (unknown, invisible matter), and 70% “dark energy” (an expansive force) – essentially a cosmological constant, which was first postulated by Einstein. The discovery that the universe was dominated by this constant energy shocked everyone, especially as Einstein had called the cosmological constant his “biggest blunder”.

    Today, cosmologists still agree this is the most likely make-up of our universe. But observational cosmologists like me have refined our measurements of these cosmic variables significantly – reducing the errors on these quantities.

    The latest numbers from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) indicate that 31.5% of the universe is matter (a combination of dark and normal), with the remainder being dark energy assuming a cosmological constant. The error on this measurement is just 3%.

    Knowing these numbers to higher precision will hopefully help cosmologists understand why the universe is like this. Why would we expect to have 70% of the universe today as “dark” (can’t be seen via electromagnetic radiation) and not associated with “matter” like everything else in the universe?

    The origin of this dark energy remains the biggest challenge to physics, even after 20 years of intense study.

    Intriguing measurements

    Like me, a few cosmologists have become distracted by other problems over the last two decades. However, 2024 could be the start of a new era of discovery. This year, cosmologists published new results based on two of our best cosmological probes.

    The first probe consists of exploding stars dubbed “SNeIa”. As these stars have a narrow range of masses, their explosions can be well calibrated, giving cosmologists a predictable brightness that can be seen far away. By comparing the known brightness of these SNeIa to their redshifts, we can determine the expansion history of the universe. These objects were, in fact, critical for discovering that the expansion of our universe is accelerating.

    The second probe works by looking at Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) – relics of predictable sound waves in the plasma (charged gas) of the early universe, before the CMB. These are now frozen into the large-scale structure of galaxies around us. Like SNeIa, their predictable size can be compared with their observed size today to measure the expansion history of the universe.

    Recently, DES reported its final SNeIa results from over a decade of work, detecting and characterising many thousands of supernova events. While these SNeIa results are consistent with the orthodox view that the universe is dominated by a cosmological constant, they do leave open the tantalising possibility of new physics – namely, that the dark energy could be varying with cosmic time.

    That said, scientists are trained to be sceptical, and there are many reasons to distrust a single experiment, single observation, or even a single set of cosmologists!

    Cosmologists now go to extraordinary lengths to “blind” their results from themselves during analysis of the data, only revealing the answer at the last moment. This blinding is done to avoid unconscious human biases affecting the work, which could possibly encourage people to get the answer they believe they should see.

    This is why repeatability of results is at the heart of all science. In cosmology, we cherish the need for multiple experiments checking and challenging each other.

    The second result to turn heads was the first BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), successor to the SDSS. The first DESI map of the cosmos is deeper and denser than the original SDSS. Its first BAO results are intriguing – the data alone is still consistent with a cosmological constant, but with hints of a possible time-varying dark energy when combined with other data sources.

    DESI in the dome of the Nicholas U. Mayall 4-meter Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory.
    wikipedia, CC BY-SA

    In particular, when DESI analyses the combination of its BAO results with the final DES SNeIa data, the significance of a time-varying dark energy increases to 3.9 sigma (a measure of how unusual a set of data is if a hypothesis is true) – only 0.6% chance of being a statistical fluke.

    Most of us would take such odds, but scientists have been hurt before by systematic errors within their data that can mimic such statistical certainty. Particle physicists therefore demand a discovery standard of 5 sigma for any claims of new physics – or less than a one in a million chance of being wrong!

    As scientists will say: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    Mindboggling implications

    Are we entering a new era of cosmological discovery? If so, what would it mean?

    The answer to my first question is probably yes. The next few years will be fun for cosmologists, with new data and results due from the European Space Agency’s Euclid mission. Launched last year, it is already scanning the sky with unprecedented accuracy.

    Likewise, DESI will get more and better data, while the European Southern Observatory starts its own massive redshift survey in 2025. Then you have the Rubin Observatory in Chile coming online soon. Combining these datasets should prove beyond doubt if dark energy varies with cosmic time.

    If it does, it implies there is less dark energy now than in the past. This could be caused by many things but, interestingly, it could signify the end of a present, accelerated phase of the expansion of the universe.

    It also implies that dark energy is probably not a cosmological constant thought to be due to the background energy associated with empty space. According to quantum mechanics, empty space isn’t really empty, with particles popping in and out of existence creating something we call “vacuum energy”. Ironically, predictions of this vacuum energy do not agree with our cosmological observations by many orders of magnitude.

    So, if we did discover that dark energy varies over time, it might explain why observations are at odds with quantum mechanics, which is an extremely well-tested theory. This would suggest the assumption in the standard model of cosmology, that dark energy is constant, needs a rethink. Such a realisation may help solve other mysteries about the universe – or pose new ones.

    In short, the new cosmological observations coming this decade will stimulate a new era of physical thinking. Congratulations to my younger cosmologists: it is your era to have fun.




    Read more:
    The earliest galaxies formed amazingly fast after the Big Bang. Do they break the universe or change its age?





    Read more:
    Astronomers can’t agree on how fast the universe is expanding. New approaches are aiming to break the impasse





    Read more:
    The universe is smoother than the standard model of cosmology suggests – so is the theory broken?





    Read more:
    Cosmology is at a tipping point – we may be on the verge of discovering new physics


    Robert Nichol receives funding from STFC for work on 4MOST.

    ref. Dark energy: could the mysterious force seen as constant actually vary over cosmic time? – https://theconversation.com/dark-energy-could-the-mysterious-force-seen-as-constant-actually-vary-over-cosmic-time-238247

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Charging, not range, is becoming a top concern for electric car drivers

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alan Jenn, Associate Professional Researcher in Transportation, University of California, Davis

    A Nissan Leaf charges at a station in Pasadena, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. Mario Tama/Getty Images

    The Biden administration is using tax credits, regulations and federal investments to shift drivers toward electric vehicles. But drivers will make the switch only if they are confident they can find reliable charging when and where they need it.

    Over the past four years, the number of public charging ports across the U.S. has doubled. As of August 2024, the nation had 192,000 publicly available charging ports and was adding about 1,000 public chargers weekly. Infrastructure rarely expands at such a fast rate.

    Agencies are allocating billions of dollars authorized through the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for building charging infrastructure. This expansion is making long-distance EV travel more practical. It also makes EV ownership more feasible for people who can’t charge at home, such as some apartment dwellers.

    Charging technology is also improving. Speeds are now reaching up to 350 kilowatts – fast enough to charge a standard electric car in less than 10 minutes. The industry has also begun to shift to a standard called ISO 15118, which governs the interface between EVs and the power grid.

    This standard enables a plug-and-charge system: Just plug in the charger and you’re done, without contending with apps or multiple payment systems. Many existing chargers can be retrofitted to it, rather than needing to install totally new chargers.

    Tesla’s decision to open its reliable Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles promises to further expand access to fast chargers, although this shift is proceeding slowly.

    Severed cable on a vandalized EV charger in the Tarzana neighborhood of Los Angeles on May 16, 2024.
    Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

    As a researcher studying adoption of EVs, I’m encouraged by these advancements. But there’s still a need to make the charging experience more reliable and accessible for everyone. Stories of charging woes abound online and are a popular focus for EV critics. Here are the key issues drivers are confronting.

    Broken, slow or inaccessible

    Although EV charging infrastructure has improved in the past several years, reliability is still a critical issue. For example, a 2022 study by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, found that nearly 30% of public non-Tesla fast chargers in the Bay Area didn’t work. A national study in 2023 that used artificial intelligence models to analyze driver reviews of EV charging stations reached a similar result.

    These findings highlight the need for more robust maintenance and monitoring systems across charging networks. Federal guidelines require that chargers must have an average annual “uptime,” or functional time, greater than 97%, but this metric is not always as clear-cut as it sounds. While many charging-point operators report high uptime percentages, their figures often exclude factors such as slow charging speeds or incomplete charges that degrade users’ experience.

    Cars waiting to charge at a center in San Diego.
    Gil Tal, CC BY-ND

    Many drivers complain about throttling – chargers that dispense electricity at less than the maximum rate the car is capable of accepting, so the car charges more slowly than expected. Sometimes this is normal: Cars will charge more slowly as their battery gets closer to full in order to avoid damaging the battery. Other factors can include weather conditions and the number of other vehicles simultaneously using the charging station.

    Drivers’ issues with chargers involve more than just uptime. Technical barriers, such as payment processing and vehicle-charger communication, sometimes can prevent a charge from starting or completing.

    To ensure that all EVs can charge smoothly at any network, groups such as the National Charging Experience Consortium and CharIN are bringing automakers, charging providers and national laboratories together to address these issues.

    Other obstacles are more local, such as long lines at charging stations and chargers that are blocked by parked cars, snowbanks or other obstacles. Finding vehicles with internal combustion engines parked in EV charger spots is common enough that it has a name: getting ICEd. There’s a clear need for more comprehensive solutions to help the charging experience keep pace with demand for EVs.

    A Wall Street Journal tech columnist finds abundant chargers – with abundant challenges – in Los Angeles.

    A street-level view

    At the University of California, Davis, we are working with the California Energy Commission to understand the range of charging obstacles that EV drivers face. As part of a three-year study, we are sending undergraduate students out to test thousands of chargers across the entire state of California.

    So far, our results show that just over 70% of charge attempts have succeeded. Many issues have caused failed charges, including traffic congestion at charging stations, damaged or offline chargers, difficulty using navigation apps to find charging stations, and malfunctioning chargers.

    Quantity and quality both matter

    As federal investments continue to pour money into EV charging, our findings indicate that it’s important to use these resources not only to expand the network but also to improve the user experience at every step.

    Areas for improvement include stricter oversight of charger maintenance; more robust uptime requirements that reflect real-world performance; and better collaboration between automakers, charging-point operators and software providers to ensure that vehicles and chargers can work together seamlessly.

    The future of EV adoption depends not just on how many chargers are available, but on how reliable and easy they are to use. By addressing specific pain points that drivers face, policymakers and industry leaders can create a charging ecosystem that truly supports the needs of all EV drivers. Reliability is key to unlocking widespread confidence in the EV charging infrastructure and ensuring that it can keep pace with the growing number of electric vehicles on the road.

    Alan Jenn receives funding from the California Energy Commission and is a participant in the National Charging Experience Consortium (ChargeX)

    ref. Charging, not range, is becoming a top concern for electric car drivers – https://theconversation.com/charging-not-range-is-becoming-a-top-concern-for-electric-car-drivers-240496

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage: sales pitches are often from biased sources, the choices can be overwhelming and impartial help is not equally available to all

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Grace McCormack, Postdoctoral researcher of Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California

    It can take a lot of effort to understand the many different Medicare choices. Halfpoint Images/Moment via Getty Images

    The 67 million Americans eligible for Medicare make an important decision every October: Should they make changes in their Medicare health insurance plans for the next calendar year?

    The decision is complicated. Medicare has an enormous variety of coverage options, with large and varying implications for people’s health and finances, both as beneficiaries and taxpayers. And the decision is consequential – some choices lock beneficiaries out of traditional Medicare.

    Beneficiaries choose an insurance plan when they turn 65 or become eligible based on qualifying chronic conditions or disabilities. After the initial sign-up, most beneficiaries can make changes only during the open enrollment period each fall.

    The 2024 open enrollment period, which runs from Oct. 14 to Dec. 7, marks an opportunity to reassess options. Given the complicated nature of Medicare and the scarcity of unbiased advisers, however, finding reliable information and understanding the options available can be challenging.

    We are health care policy experts who study Medicare, and even we find it complicated. One of us recently helped a relative enroll in Medicare for the first time. She’s healthy, has access to health insurance through her employer and doesn’t regularly take prescription drugs. Even in this straightforward scenario, the number of choices were overwhelming.

    The stakes of these choices are even higher for people managing multiple chronic conditions. There is help available for beneficiaries, but we have found that there is considerable room for improvement – especially in making help available for everyone who needs it.

    The choice is complex, especially when you are signing up for the first time and if you are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. Insurers often engage in aggressive and sometimes deceptive advertising and outreach through brokers and agents. Choose unbiased resources to guide you through the process, like http://www.shiphelp.org. Make sure to start before your 65th birthday for initial sign-up, look out for yearly plan changes, and start well before the Dec. 7 deadline for any plan changes.

    2 paths with many decisions

    Within Medicare, beneficiaries have a choice between two very different programs. They can enroll in either traditional Medicare, which is administered by the government, or one of the Medicare Advantage plans offered by private insurance companies.

    Within each program are dozens of further choices.

    Traditional Medicare is a nationally uniform cost-sharing plan for medical services that allows people to choose their providers for most types of medical care, usually without prior authorization. Deductibles for 2024 are US$1,632 for hospital costs and $240 for outpatient and medical costs. Patients also have to chip in starting on Day 61 for a hospital stay and Day 21 for a skilled nursing facility stay. This percentage is known as coinsurance. After the yearly deductible, Medicare pays 80% of outpatient and medical costs, leaving the person with a 20% copayment. Traditional Medicare’s basic plan, known as Part A and Part B, also has no out-of-pocket maximum.

    Traditional Medicare starts with Medicare parts A and B.
    Bill Oxford/iStock via Getty Images

    People enrolled in traditional Medicare can also purchase supplemental coverage from a private insurance company, known as Part D, for drugs. And they can purchase supplemental coverage, known as Medigap, to lower or eliminate their deductibles, coinsurance and copayments, cap costs for Parts A and B, and add an emergency foreign travel benefit.

    Part D plans cover prescription drug costs for about $0 to $100 a month. People with lower incomes may get extra financial help by signing up for the Medicare program Part D Extra Help or state-sponsored pharmaceutical assistance programs.

    There are 10 standardized Medigap plans, also known as Medicare supplement plans. Depending on the plan, and the person’s gender, location and smoking status, Medigap typically costs from about $30 to $400 a month when a beneficiary first enrolls in Medicare.

    The Medicare Advantage program allows private insurers to bundle everything together and offers many enrollment options. Compared with traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans typically offer lower out-of-pocket costs. They often bundle supplemental coverage for hearing, vision and dental, which is not part of traditional Medicare.

    But Medicare Advantage plans also limit provider networks, meaning that people who are enrolled in them can see only certain providers without paying extra. In comparison to traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage enrollees on average go to lower-quality hospitals, nursing facilities, and home health agencies but see higher-quality primary care doctors.

    Medicare Advantage plans also often require prior authorization – often for important services such as stays at skilled nursing facilities, home health services and dialysis.

    Choice overload

    Understanding the tradeoffs between premiums, health care access and out-of-pocket health care costs can be overwhelming.

    Turning 65 begins the process of taking one of two major paths, which each have a thicket of health care choices.
    Rika Kanaoka/USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics

    Though options vary by county, the typical Medicare beneficiary can choose between as many as 10 Medigap plans and 21 standalone Part D plans, or an average of 43 Medicare Advantage plans. People who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid, or have certain chronic conditions, or are in a long-term care facility have additional types of Medicare Advantage plans known as Special Needs Plans to choose among.

    Medicare Advantage plans can vary in terms of networks, benefits and use of prior authorization.

    Different Medicare Advantage plans have varying and large impacts on enrollee health, including dramatic differences in mortality rates. Researchers found a 16% difference per year between the best and worst Medicare Advantage plans, meaning that for every 100 people in the worst plans who die within a year, they would expect only 84 people to die within that year if all had been enrolled in the best plans instead. They also found plans that cost more had lower mortality rates, but plans that had higher federal quality ratings – known as “star ratings” – did not necessarily have lower mortality rates.

    The quality of different Medicare Advantage plans, however, can be difficult for potential enrollees to assess. The federal plan finder website lists available plans and publishes a quality rating of one to five stars for each plan. But in practice, these star ratings don’t necessarily correspond to better enrollee experiences or meaningful differences in quality.

    Online provider networks can also contain errors or include providers who are no longer seeing new patients, making it hard for people to choose plans that give them access to the providers they prefer.

    While many Medicare Advantage plans boast about their supplemental benefits , such as vision and dental coverage, it’s often difficult to understand how generous this supplemental coverage is. For instance, while most Medicare Advantage plans offer supplemental dental benefits, cost-sharing and coverage can vary. Some plans don’t cover services such as extractions and endodontics, which includes root canals. Most plans that cover these more extensive dental services require some combination of coinsurance, copayments and annual limits.

    Even when information is fully available, mistakes are likely.

    Part D beneficiaries often fail to accurately evaluate premiums and expected out-of-pocket costs when making their enrollment decisions. Past work suggests that many beneficiaries have difficulty processing the proliferation of options. A person’s relationship with health care providers, financial situation and preferences are key considerations. The consequences of enrolling in one plan or another can be difficult to determine.

    The trap: Locked out

    At 65, when most beneficiaries first enroll in Medicare, federal regulations guarantee that anyone can get Medigap coverage. During this initial sign-up, beneficiaries can’t be charged a higher premium based on their health.

    Older Americans who enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan but then want to switch back to traditional Medicare after more than a year has passed lose that guarantee. This can effectively lock them out of enrolling in supplemental Medigap insurance, making the initial decision a one-way street.

    For the initial sign-up, Medigap plans are “guaranteed issue,” meaning the plan must cover preexisting health conditions without a waiting period and must allow anyone to enroll, regardless of health. They also must be “community rated,” meaning that the cost of a plan can’t rise because of age or illness, although it can go up due to other factors such as inflation.

    People who enroll in traditional Medicare and a supplemental Medigap plan at 65 can expect to continue paying community-rated premiums as long as they remain enrolled, regardless of what happens to their health.

    In most states, however, people who switch from Medicare Advantage to traditional Medicare don’t have as many protections. Most state regulations permit plans to deny coverage, impose waiting periods or charge higher Medigap premiums based on their expected health costs. Only Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and New York guarantee that people can get Medigap plans after the initial sign-up period.

    Deceptive advertising

    Information about Medicare coverage and assistance choosing a plan is available but varies in quality and completeness. Older Americans are bombarded with ads for Medicare Advantage plans that they may not be eligible for and that include misleading statements about benefits.

    A November 2022 report from the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance found deceptive and aggressive sales and marketing tactics, including mailed brochures that implied government endorsement, telemarketers who called up to 20 times a day, and salespeople who approached older adults in the grocery store to ask about their insurance coverage.

    The Department of Health and Human Services tightened rules for 2024, requiring third-party marketers to include federal resources about Medicare, including the website and toll-free phone number, and limiting the number of contacts from marketers.

    Although the government has the authority to review marketing materials, enforcement is partially dependent on whether complaints are filed. Complaints can be filed with the federal government’s Senior Medicare Patrol, a federally funded program that prevents and addresses unethical Medicare activities.

    Meanwhile, the number of people enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans has grown rapidly, doubling since 2010 and accounting for more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries by 2023.

    Nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries seek information from an insurance broker. Brokers sell health insurance plans from multiple companies. However, because they receive payment from plans in exchange for sales, and because they are unlikely to sell every option, a plan recommended by a broker may not meet a person’s needs.

    Help is out there − but falls short

    An alternative source of information is the federal government. It offers three sources of information to assist people with choosing one of these plans: 1-800-Medicare, medicare.gov and the State Health Insurance Assistance Program, also known as SHIP.

    The SHIP program combats misleading Medicare advertising and deceptive brokers by connecting eligible Americans with counselors by phone or in person to help them choose plans. Many people say they prefer meeting in person with a counselor over phone or internet support. SHIP staff say they often help people understand what’s in Medicare Advantage ads and disenroll from plans they were directed to by brokers.

    Telephone SHIP services are available nationally, but one of us and our colleagues have found that in-person SHIP services are not available in some areas. We tabulated areas by ZIP code in 27 states and found that although more than half of the locations had a SHIP site within the county, areas without a SHIP site included a larger proportion of people with low incomes.

    Virtual services are an option that’s particularly useful in rural areas and for people with limited mobility or little access to transportation, but they require online access. Virtual and in-person services, where both a beneficiary and a counselor can look at the same computer screen, are especially useful for looking through complex coverage options.

    We also interviewed SHIP counselors and coordinators from across the U.S.

    As one SHIP coordinator noted, many people are not aware of all their coverage options. For instance, one beneficiary told a coordinator, “I’ve been on Medicaid and I’m aging out of Medicaid. And I don’t have a lot of money. And now I have to pay for my insurance?” As it turned out, the beneficiary was eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare because of their income, and so had to pay less than they thought.

    The interviews made clear that many people are not aware that Medicare Advantage ads and insurance brokers may be biased. One counselor said, “There’s a lot of backing (beneficiaries) off the ledge, if you will, thanks to those TV commercials.”

    Many SHIP staff counselors said they would benefit from additional training on coverage options, including for people who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. The SHIP program relies heavily on volunteers, and there is often greater demand for services than the available volunteers can offer. Additional counselors would help meet needs for complex coverage decisions.

    The key to making a good Medicare coverage decision is to use the help available and weigh your costs, access to health providers, current health and medication needs, and also consider how your health and medication needs might change as time goes on.

    This article is part of an occasional series examining the U.S. Medicare system.

    Grace McCormack receives funding from the Commonwealth Fund and Arnold Ventures.

    Melissa Garrido receives funding from Commonwealth Fund, the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health for Medicare-related research, including research discussed in this piece.

    ref. Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage: sales pitches are often from biased sources, the choices can be overwhelming and impartial help is not equally available to all – https://theconversation.com/medicare-vs-medicare-advantage-sales-pitches-are-often-from-biased-sources-the-choices-can-be-overwhelming-and-impartial-help-is-not-equally-available-to-all-236635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports