Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

    Negative gearing and capital gains tax are back on the national agenda as Australians deal with a housing crisis and politicians look for ways to tackle the issue and win voters’ support at the upcoming election.

    The Labor government confirmed this week the tax concessions were being reviewed. Meanwhile, the government is struggling to pass its Help to Buy housing assistance legislation through the Senate.

    The Help to Buy legislation is aimed at helping first home buyers on low and middle incomes purchase their first home. The government would contribute up to 40% of the home purchase price and require only a 2% deposit from buyer. Buyers could eventually buy back the government’s equity share.

    But the legislation has stalled with the Greens wanting more including rent caps and pulling back negative gearing while the Coalition says the government “shouldn’t be in the business of co-owning people’s homes”.

    The review, revealed yesterday, could reportedly include a cap on the number of properties a person could negatively gear. The changes would not affect anyone who is currently negatively geared.

    Negative gearing lets taxpayers claim deductions on their tax for the expenses relating to owning an investment property. They can save on tax as the property potentially rises in value. They can also be eligible for a reduced capital gains tax when they sell the property.

    But any changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax policies could face further opposition – depending on how they are implemented. The crucial issue is whether the changes free up enough housing stock and make it more affordable for buyers and renters.

    Home ownership in Australia

    Based on National Housing Supply and Affordability Council data, home ownership across most age groups has been declining since the 1970s.

    Younger households, aged between 25 and 34 years, are hardest hit, having 34% of household income spent on mortgage costs in 2022–23.

    About 67% of households in Australia are home owners, and the remainder renters. While the proportion of owners with a mortgage has increased since 1994, so too has the proportion of private renters.

    Size of the investment market

    Just under 10% of all taxpayers negatively geared their properties in 2020–21 and more than 70% of property investors have only one investment property.



    While there have been calls for changes to negative gearing policy to cap the number of investment properties at six, this would impact about only 20,000 individual property investors.

    Changes to capital gains tax

    Suggestions to increase capital gains tax (CGT) need to be considered carefully, given that:

    • there is no solid evidence to show that increasing CGT will increase housing supply and in fact, it may have the opposite effect by limiting rental housing available

    • any change to CGT legislation also impacts other investments (such as shares), as the CGT discount also applies to other capital gains

    • multiple investment properties are often held within self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) which are subject to different CGT rules and also benefit from superannuation tax concessions

    • the rapid increase in housing prices over recent years is likely to result in very large amounts of CGT being paid on investment properties, even with the current 50% CGT discount.

    Other ways to improve affordability and availability

    Policy discussions around housing affordability and availability invariably lead to suggestions to change how negative gearing and capital gains tax operate. However, taxation policy is not the only solution available.

    Another suggestion put forward is to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation for deposits.

    Regardless of one’s position on accessing superannuation for something other than retirement, this suggestion is not viable for low to middle income earners. These households are unlikely to have substantial superannuation balances. Also, they don’t have the earning capacity to service a mortgage for the outstanding amount.

    There is currently a push to use self-managed super funds SMSFs to enable home ownership. This would effectively allow individuals to become tenants in homes owned by their super funds.

    However, the complexities of superannuation law mean this could cause big problems for people whose relationships break down.

    Considering the generational wealth that currently exists in property, the government could consider making it easier for parents or grandparents to gift (or sell) property to their children or grandchildren, in certain circumstances.

    This area has not yet been sufficiently explored.

    What needs to change

    The real issue of housing affordability is multifaceted, and any change needs to be done as part of a broader policy.

    It is likely that on its own, changes to negative gearing and/or capital gains tax will not achieve the intended outcome to make housing more accessible and affordable for Australians who want to buy a home.

    While the debate around the best way to achieve housing affordability and accessibility continues, and while there are statistics that tell us about the current housing crisis, one crucial thing that is missing is the voice of the very people that any new housing policy should be designed to assist.

    More consultation is needed with younger age groups and low to middle income earners who are struggling with high rent and unable to purchase their own home.

    Australia desperately needs bold new innovative housing policies that do not rely solely on the taxation system but that consider a raft of measures that meet the housing needs of everyday Australians.

    Michelle Cull is co-founder of the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia and the Financial Advice Association Australia. Michelle is also an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and volunteers as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    ref. The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-reviewing-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-but-this-wont-be-enough-to-fix-our-housing-shortage-239813

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

    Wanwajee Weeraphukdee/Shutterstock

    The electricity workforce will need to double in five years to achieve Australia’s 2030 renewable energy target, our new report finds. More than 80% of these jobs will be in renewables. Jobs in energy storage alone will overtake domestic coal and gas jobs (not including the coal and gas export sector) in the next couple of years.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) updates its Integrated System Plan every two years. It’s a blueprint for the energy transition from coal to renewable energy. The plan lays out scenarios for how the electricity system might change to help put in place all the elements needed to make the transition happen.

    AEMO and the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to undertake modelling on the workforce needed for this transition. The “step change” scenario in the Integrated System Plan is broadly aligned with the 2030 renewables target. Under this scenario, we found the electricity workforce would need to grow from 33,000 to peak at 66,000 by 2029.

    Rooftop solar and batteries together are projected to account for over 40% of these jobs. Wind farms will employ around one-third and solar farms just under 10%. Jobs would also treble in transmission line construction to connect renewables in regional areas to cities and other states in the next few years.

    Job projections in the National Electricity Market under the ‘step change’ scenario that aligns with the 2030 renewables target.
    Author provided

    Job growth would surge in a ‘renewable energy superpower’

    In the “green energy export” scenario, Australia becomes a “renewable energy superpower”. The country uses renewable energy to export green hydrogen and power heavy industry. In this scenario, the electricity workforce would almost treble to 96,000 by the late 2020s.

    By 2033, after construction peaks, more than half of electricity sector jobs will be in operations and maintenance. This applies to both the step change and green energy export scenarios.

    A significant employment downturn is projected during the 2030s. But in the green energy export scenario jobs then climb steeply again to a peak of 120,000. This projection reflects AEMO’s expectations of when green export growth will occur.

    New South Wales is projected to have the most renewable energy jobs in the 2020s. However, Queensland would become the largest state for renewable jobs (especially in wind farms) in the green energy export scenario.

    Projected total job numbers by scenario.
    Author provided

    What are the other possibilities?

    “Progressive change” is another scenario in the Integrated System Plan. For this scenario, we modelled slower growth in renewable energy. It reflects constraints on the economy and supply chains (including labour and minerals) for renewables.

    In an “enhanced manufacturing” scenario, local renewable energy manufacturing increases. Our modelling found it could create a peak of 5,000 extra jobs.

    Importantly, these projections don’t include upstream jobs in supply chains for the sector (for example, increased mining to supply the resources that renewables need) or electrification of homes.

    Creating this many jobs is very challenging

    Our modelling shows the workforce needs to grow very rapidly to make Australia’s energy transition happen. Unfortunately, the challenges of building this workforce are daunting. They include:

    • there’s a shortage of almost all key occupations in demand for the electricity sector – electricians, engineers, construction managers – according to Australia’s Skills Priority List

    • “extraordinary growth” forecast by Infrastructure Australia in other major infrastructure projects, such as transport, which will compete for many of the same skilled workers

    • under AEMO’s scenarios, employment will be subject to boom-bust cycles, which increases the risk of skill shortages and damaging impacts, such as housing shortages, in regional areas

    • Australia has relied heavily on skilled migrants – and will look to do so again – but many parts of the world are chasing the same workers.

    The International Energy Agency has noted:

    Labour and skills shortages are already translating into project delays, raising concerns that clean energy solutions will be unable to keep pace with demand to meet net zero targets.

    What can be done to avoid skill shortages?

    Some action has been taken to increase the workforce. The federal government, for instance, is subsidising apprentices under the New Energy Apprenticeship program.

    But action isn’t happening at the scale and pace required.

    What else can be done?

    Firstly, Jobs Skills Australia and Powering Skills Organisation (which oversees energy skills training) have outlined ways to increase the system’s capacity to train more skilled workers. This includes creating better pathways into renewable energy for students, especially in recognised Renewable Energy Zones.

    Secondly, Jobs Skills Australia has noted the need for renewable energy businesses to increase their intakes of apprentices. It recommends expanding the Australian Skills Guarantee to include generation and transmission projects.

    The guarantee has set mandatory targets for apprentices or trainees to complete 10% of labour hours on Commonwealth-funded major construction and information technology projects (A$10 million plus). It could also be applied to major government funding programs for renewable energy and transmission. These include:

    • the Capacity Investment Scheme, a government tender program to support a large volume of new renewables and storage projects

    • Rewiring the Nation, a $20 billion fund for transmission lines

    • grants from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    Thirdly, government tenders could moderate the peaks and troughs in employment by limiting the maximum and minimum volumes built each year.

    Fourthly, including more women and First Nations Australians can increase labour supply and workforce diversity. Only one-in-two First Nations Australians are employed compared to around two in three in the wider population. Yet they account for around one-in-ten people in some major Renewable Energy Zones.

    Government pre-employment programs, working with industry and First Nations groups, could also increase the supply of workers. These could have a dramatic social impact too.

    It’s a challenging problem whichever way you look at it. We need rapid change to build renewable energy capacity before coal plants retire and to tackle climate change. But that depends on growing the workforce amid skill shortages.

    There’s a range of ways to increase the supply of workers and improve local outcomes. But we are running out of time. Urgent action is needed.

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based.

    ref. Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas – https://theconversation.com/our-electricity-workforce-must-double-to-hit-the-2030-renewables-target-energy-storage-jobs-will-soon-overtake-those-in-coal-and-gas-239718

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Anikeeva, Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

    ImageFlow/Shutterstock

    Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

    Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

    But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

    So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

    Unbalanced ecosystems

    Healthy, stable ecosystems provide services that keep us healthy, such as supplying food and clean water, producing oxygen, and making green spaces available for our recreation and wellbeing.

    Another key service ecosystems provide is disease regulation. When nature is in balance – with predators controlling herbivore populations, and herbivores controlling plant growth – it’s more difficult for pathogens to emerge in a way that causes pandemics.

    But when human activities disrupt and unbalance ecosystems – such as by way of climate change and biodiversity loss – things go wrong.

    For example, climate change affects the number and distribution of plants and animals. Mosquitoes that carry diseases can move from the tropics into what used to be temperate climates as the planet warms, and may infect more people in the months that are normally disease free.

    We’ve studied the relationship between weather and dengue fever transmission in China, and our findings support the same conclusion reached by many other studies: climate change is likely to put more people at risk of dengue.

    COVID was not the first pandemic, and is unlikely to be the last.
    Jaromir Chalabala/Shutterstock

    Biodiversity loss can have similar effects by disrupting food chains. When ranchers cleared forests in South America for their cattle to graze in the first half of the 20th century, tiny forest-dwelling, blood-feeding vampire bats suddenly had a smörgåsbord of large sedentary animals to feed on.

    While vampire bats had previously been kept in check by the limited availability of food and the presence of predators in the balanced forest ecosystem, numbers of this species exploded in South America.

    These bats carry the rabies virus, which causes lethal brain infections in people who are bitten. Although the number of deaths from bat-borne rabies has now fallen dramatically due to vaccination programs in South America, rabies caused by bites from other animals still poses a global threat.

    As urban and agricultural development impinges on natural ecosystems, there are increasing opportunities for humans and domestic animals to become infected with pathogens that would normally only be seen in wildlife – particularly when people hunt and eat animals from the wild.

    The HIV virus, for example, first entered human populations from apes that were slaughtered for food in Africa, and then spread globally through travel and trade.

    Meanwhile, bats are thought to be the original reservoir for the virus that caused the COVID pandemic, which has killed more than 7 million people to date.

    Climate change can affect the distribution of animals which carry disease, such as mosquitoes.
    Kwangmoozaa/Shutterstock

    Ultimately, until we effectively address the unsustainable impact we are having on our planet, pandemics will continue to occur.

    Targeting the ultimate causes

    Factors such as climate change, biodiversity loss and other global challenges are the ultimate (high level) cause of pandemics. Meanwhile, increased contact between humans, domestic animals and wildlife is the proximate (immediate) cause.

    In the case of HIV, while direct contact with the infected blood of apes was the proximate cause, the apes were only being slaughtered because large numbers of very poor people were hungry – an ultimate cause.

    The distinction between ultimate causes and proximate causes is important, because we often deal only with proximate causes. For example, people may smoke because of stress or social pressure (ultimate causes of getting lung cancer), but it’s the toxins in the smoke that cause cancer (proximate cause).

    Generally, health services are only concerned with stopping people from smoking – and with treating the illness that results – not with removing the drivers that lead them to smoke in the first place.

    Similarly, we address pandemics with lockdowns, mask wearing, social distancing and vaccinations – all measures which seek to stop the spread of the virus. But we pay less attention to addressing the ultimate causes of pandemics – until perhaps very recently.

    Often we treat the proximate causes of illness, but not the ultimate causes.
    Basil MK/Pexels

    A planetary health approach

    There’s a growing awareness of the importance of adopting a “planetary health” approach to improve human health. This concept is based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on flourishing natural systems, and the wise stewardship of those natural systems.

    With this approach, ultimate drivers like climate change and biodiversity loss would be prioritised in preventing future pandemics, at the same time as working with experts from many different disciplines to deal with the proximate causes, thereby reducing the risk overall.

    The planetary health approach has the benefit of improving both the health of the environment and human health concurrently. We are heartened by the increased uptake of teaching planetary health concepts across the environmental sciences, humanities and health sciences in many universities.

    As climate change, biodiversity loss, population displacements, travel and trade continue to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it’s vital that the planetary stewards of the future have a better understanding of how to tackle the ultimate causes that drive pandemics.

    This article is the first in a series on the next pandemic.

    Olga Anikeeva receives funding from Green Adelaide.

    Jessica Stanhope receives funding from the Ecological Health Network and Green Adelaide. She is affiliated with the Environmental Physiotherapy Association.

    Peng Bi receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, AusAID,

    Philip Weinstein receives funding from competitive external granting bodies. He is affiliated with Nature Foundation, Australian Entomological Society, and the South Australian Museum.

    ref. Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827

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  • MIL-Evening Report: The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland

    AstroStar/Shutterstock

    In January 2023, a new comet was discovered. Comets are found regularly, but astronomers quickly realised this one, called C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), had the potential to be quite bright.

    Some hyperbolic reports have suggested it might be the “comet of the century”, but any astronomer will tell you the brightness of comets is notoriously hard to predict. As I explained last year, we’d have to wait until it arrived to be sure how bright it would become.

    Now, the time has come. Comet C/2023 A3 is currently visible with the naked eye in the morning sky in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, with its best yet to come in the next few weeks. And it does look promising. It’s unlikely to be the comet of the decade (never mind the comet of the century), but it will almost certainly become the best comet of the year.

    So where, and when, should you look to get your best views of this celestial visitor?

    A show in the morning, before sunrise

    At the moment, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) is a morning object, rising around an hour and a half before sunrise. It is visible to the naked eye, but not yet spectacular. However, with binoculars you can easily see the comet’s dusty tail pointing away from the Sun.

    The comet will remain at about the same altitude in the morning sky until around September 30. It will then get closer to the horizon on each consecutive morning until it’s lost in the glare of the approaching dawn by October 6 or 7.

    If you want to spot the comet in the morning sky, look east. The sliders below will help you orient yourself and choose the best time to look, depending on your latitude.

    During this period, the comet should slowly brighten. It reaches its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) on September 27, when it will be 58 million kilometres from our star.

    As it swings around the Sun, it will continue to approach Earth, and so should continue to brighten. The best show in the morning sky will likely be during the last couple of days of September and the first few days in October, before the comet is lost to view.

    A potential daylight comet

    Thanks to pure good fortune, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will then pass almost directly between Earth and the Sun on October 9 and 10.

    This could cause a spectacular brightening of the comet, thanks to “forward scattering” caused by its dust. Imagine looking towards a bright light source through a cloud of dust grains. The grains nearest to the light source will scatter light from the source back towards you.

    As the comet swings between Earth and the Sun, it will be perfectly placed for this forward scattering process to occur. If the comet is particularly dusty, this could cause its apparent brightness to increase by up to 100 times.

    If it does, there’s a small chance the comet could briefly become visible in the daylight sky on October 9 and 10.

    However, it will be very close to the Sun in the sky, and incredibly hard to spot. Only the most experienced observers may be able to detect the comet at this time, and it requires a special technique. Do not try to stare at the Sun to see it.

    The best show could be after October 12

    After swinging between Earth and the Sun, the comet will appear in the evening sky. It will rapidly climb in the western sky, and should be a bright, naked-eye object for a few days from October 12. The sliders below will give you a sense of where to look.

    For the first few days of this period, the comet will still benefit from the forward scattering of sunlight, but this will decrease as it moves away.

    What about the tail?

    The positioning of the comet, Earth and the Sun in the Solar System means the comet’s tail will be streaming outwards, past our planet. This means it could grow to prodigious lengths in the night sky.

    The bulk of that tail will likely be too dim to see easily with the naked eye, but it could be a fantastic spectacle for photographers. Expect to see a wealth of comet images flooding the internet around the middle of October.

    As the days pass and the comet climbs higher, it will fade quite rapidly. It will likely become too faint to see with the naked eye, even for seasoned and experienced observers, before the end of October.

    At that point, the show will be over. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will continue to flee the inner Solar System, moving into the icy depths of space, never to return.

    How reliable are the predictions?

    At the moment, the comet is already bright enough to consider it the “comet of the year”, outshining comet 12P/Pons-Brooks from earlier this year.

    But remember the classic saying – comets are like cats. They have tails and will often surprise us. For now, comet C/2023 A3 is behaving itself. It’s brightening predictably, and putting on a good show.

    But comets that approach this closely to the Sun often fragment. This is impossible to predict, and far from guaranteed. If the comet did break up, it could become even more spectacular because of all the dust and gas it would release.

    The opposite could still happen, too. The comet could fail to brighten as much as we expect, although that seems unlikely at this stage.

    Whatever happens, we’re in for a fascinating few weeks of comet watching. Hopefully, a real spectacle awaits us.

    Jonti Horner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-best-comet-of-the-year-is-finally-here-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-239300

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  • MIL-Evening Report: In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

    In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

    In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

    Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

    Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

    A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

    The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

    Who is more incentivised to vote?

    As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

    Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

    The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

    The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

    One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

    According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

    Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

    For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

    Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

    When the couch wins, America loses

    In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

    Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

    Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

    Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

    Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

    So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

    Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

    Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

    ref. In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-too-close-to-call-us-presidential-election-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

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  • MIL-OSI Global: Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    Business tendency surveys provide very useful indicators of trends within an economy. The information is available well before the official statistics, such as GDP growth, and provides insights into business dynamics that cannot be found elsewhere.

    For 70 years the Bureau for Economic Research at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University has been conducting business tendency surveys. Indeed, South Africa remains one of the few countries where these surveys are conducted by a non-state agency.

    The surveys cover a range of questions, tracking everything from activity to demand, selling prices to inventories, investment and also the constraints holding back investment. But the most important question is very simple: are you satisfied with prevailing business conditions? Respondents can only respond with a yes or a no. There is no scale, no maybe, no but. It is a pure gut feeling. This is the only true measure of business sentiment in South Africa.

    While it can be argued that at times of fast production growth sentiment is more upbeat (and vice versa during a recession), sentiment typically turns before you see production growth. Respondents to Bureau for Economic Research surveys know their business like the palm of their hand. They sense when something starts changing and know when they can turn cautiously optimistic about conditions even though activity is not there (yet). As illustrated in the figure below, confidence often turns before the business cycle phase changes from an upward to a downward phase (and the other way around).

    Changes in sentiment tell us a lot about investment intentions, as well as the potential for faster economic growth and job creation in the economy. If business people in South Africa are downbeat about business conditions, it is near impossible to see growth accelerate. Why build a new factory or employ workers if you are not, at the very least, satisfied with the environment you have to operate in today?

    While the survey process has changed over the past seven decades, the value of the insights has not. South Africa’s new government of national unity has promised to tackle the country’s structural constraints, with reforms aimed at improving electricity, infrastructure, water and logistics. By providing a reliable measure of sentiment, the survey will go a long way in assessing whether they are successful.

    Business confidence ahead of economic shifts

    While we survey a range of sectors, only the responses of a specific set of sectors are compiled into the so-called composite Business Confidence Index. This index is sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and is known as the RMB/BER BCI.

    The index looks at the responses of manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, new vehicle dealers and main building contractors. These sectors represent the productive sectors of the economy and tend to lead the rest of the economy.

    So, if something changes here, one can be fairly sure that it will soon start changing in the rest of the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have a feel for both domestic and export demand conditions, which later trickle through the rest of the economy. New vehicle dealers will be the first to know when local consumers start holding their purse strings.

    In most sectors the survey also asks respondents about constraints to business conditions. We ask the same set of questions each quarter and have been doing so for decades. This gives us a very powerful, long-term time series of data. For example, over the last ten years, manufacturers have almost consistently seen the general political climate as the most serious constraint on business conditions.

    The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows that it’s a more serious constraint than insufficient demand or the short-term interest rate, despite the latter being at the highest level in 15 years. Interestingly, the political climate constraint fell sharply in the third quarter of 2024, following the formation of the government of national unity. The disruptions at local ports were also picked up by our surveys, with load-shedding top of mind for many respondents in 2023 (and before).

    The graph below shows a long-term series of business confidence. A reading of 100 would signal extreme optimism with every respondent satisfied with business conditions – this has never happened before. A reading of zero means not a single respondent is satisfied with business conditions. This, too, has not happened before, but we did see confidence fall to just 5 index points in the second quarter of 2020, the worst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, with many businesses forced to close temporarily. The BER surveys provided invaluable information about business dynamics in the formal economy during the pandemic and the recovery.

    Figure 1: RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

    The RMB/BER BCI edged up by three index points to 38 in the third quarter of 2024. This was the first survey after the formation of the new government, and some may have hoped for a bigger boost to sentiment. Still, underlying results suggest respondents are turning cautiously more optimistic about the future. For the first time since early 2022, most respondents across the different sectors expect business conditions to improve in 12 months’ time, instead of deteriorating (further).

    Current demand conditions, however, remained tough, which held back a bigger recovery in sentiment.

    A firm commitment by the new government of national unity to continue with structural reform aimed at alleviating the constraints on the South African economy and an effort to bring down the cost of doing business (by lowering the administrative burden, for example) would go a long way in supporting a more pronounced recovery in business confidence.

    Higher confidence will translate into faster economic growth over time.

    How the index is compiled

    Taking a step back, in 1954, and for many decades after that, everything at the BER was done by hand. The surveys were sent by post, and indices were painstakingly calculated as the responses trickled in. Some graphs were even drawn up by hand. Over time, more electronics became involved. South African postal services deteriorated to such an extent that relying on them was no longer feasible.

    The little pigeonholes for the postal letters at the BER offices were removed earlier this year and all survey responses are now received via email. Responses are weighted for firm and sector size, and we try to keep the survey as representative of the sectors as possible.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand our panel in a world where inboxes are flooded with fly-by-night surveys and spam. Our close relationship with international bodies such as the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys and our academic footing as a university research institute ensures that we continue to follow global best practices.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse – https://theconversation.com/business-confidence-in-south-africa-how-a-70-year-old-survey-has-given-early-signals-of-the-economys-pulse-237773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    For many Australians, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a fading memory as the world has moved away from lockdowns and masks. However, its lasting impacts, including persistent inflation, remain.

    Academic economists Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden, in their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, examine how Australia fared in handling the COVID crisis in its economic and health policies.

    We’re joined on the podcast by Holden to talk about the book and also Australia’s economic outlook, during what has been a big week for economic news.

    On COVID, Hamilton and Holden found a mixed picture: Australia scored highly in its economic response but fell down on its vaccine procurement and provision of RATs.

    I think Treasury gave excellent advice to the Treasurer [Josh Frydenberg]  and he not only […] took that advice but was able to sell it to a sometimes sceptical cabinet. […] So I think it was good advice and strong leadership on the economic front. On the health front, I think the advice was really quite poor at times. I mean we make quite a point of Scott Morrison’s use of the phrase when it comes to vaccines “It’s not a race” when clearly it was a race. It was a race against the virus. It was a race to get vaccinated. It was a race to be able to reopen our economy.

    On the RBA and inflation, Holden agrees with this week’s decision to hold rates but believes they should have risen earlier at least once more:

    I have argued […] that late last year or early this year, the Reserve Bank should have raised rates at least one more time to get us closer to what happened in peer jurisdictions overseas, to try and beat inflation faster. The Reserve Bank has taken a different approach. They want to have interest rates peak, maybe a full percentage point lower than in places like the US, and they’re willing to tolerate inflation for longer.

    At least they’re not caving into political pressure from people like Jim Chalmers and Wayne Swan to precipitously cut interest rates and I give the governor, Michele Bullock, great credit for standing firm on that, including in her press conference remarks [on Tuesday].

    On when interest rates will start moving down, Holden gives a grim assessment:

    My view is the most likely case is very late in 2025, somewhere about 12 months from today. Again, it’s going to depend on the inflation numbers and I’d like nothing more [than] for us to be well inside the target band and for interest rates to be able to be moderated.

    I think it’s a real shame that we took a different strategy in Australia to what peer jurisdictions overseas did, which was raise rates more aggressively, take our medicine, have tamed inflation and now be cutting rates. That’s the story in the US and several other jurisdictions.

    Holden warns against RBA Governor Michele Bullock making predictions of future rate moves:

    Governor Bullock, I think, is at risk of repeating, albeit a milder version of, the mistake that Philip Lowe made in providing forward guidance. Now it’s not as dramatic as saying interest rates are not going to rise until 2024, which was sort of three years of forward guidance or thereabouts. Governor Bullock has fallen into, I think, a little bit of a trap by saying over six weeks ago that she and her colleagues on the board didn’t think that interest rates would be cut this calendar year.

    I don’t really understand what the virtue of her doing that was. I think that was probably, in hindsight, something that she may regret. [Although] I don’t think it will do any real damage because I think it’s a prediction that’s incredibly likely to come true.  

    On the government potentially making changes to negative gearing, Holden outlines why it could be a good idea:

    Getting rid of negative gearing would put potential owner-occupiers on a level playing field with investors at an auction. I think it’ll be very good news for people trying to move from the rental market into being owner-occupiers; I think it’ll be good news for the classic Australian dream. To be fair about it, the existence of negative gearing is something that puts downward pressure on rents. So negative gearing, in a funny way, is good for renters who are always going to rent but bad for renters who want to buy. So there are pros and cons.

    It was a good idea eight or nine years ago. I think it’s still a good idea today and I think it’s interesting that the government seems to be at least floating the test balloon.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-richard-holden-says-no-interest-rate-fall-likely-for-12-months-239820

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tobiasz Trawinski, Lecturer in psychology, Liverpool Hope University

    There is little doubt that historic racism has influenced the content and composition of several famous figurative paintings. In March 2024, this could be seen in the debate around the exhibition of the Rex Whistler mural, The Expedition in Pursuit of Rare Meats (1927), at the Tate Britain. Critics asked whether such artworks should remain on public display.

    There are several shocking elements of Rex Whistler’s mural, originally commissioned by the Tate as “decoration for the new refreshment room”, including the image of a black child chained to a horse and cart as it moves at speed. The debate raises the question – does the ongoing presence of artworks like this in public spaces serve to confront or maintain historic racist views?

    In some instances, the racist attitudes behind such paintings have been explicitly expressed by artists or painting owners, making them well-documented. Take, for example, John Trumbull (1715–1787), a painter who had several enslaved people living in his household. Another example is Gilbert Winter Moss (1828–1899), a banker who owned Richard Ansdell’s painting The Hunted Slaves (1861). According to the UCL Legacies of Slavery database, Moss’s family was deeply involved in the slave trade. In other cases, things aren’t so clear-cut.

    But even if not explicitly expressed, racist attitudes may have been implicitly held, to an extent that they were able to influence the creative process. Implicitly held racial attitudes are mental associations that, when triggered by race, can guide people’s judgment and actions. As a researcher in psychology, I wanted to explore if implicitly held racial attitudes affect the viewing of paintings when the images themselves make no suggestion of racial inequality.

    Alongside my colleagues, I have explored this question in a series of recent studies of portraits of black and white people. In one study, we used gaze-mapping technology to measure the eye movements made by visitors to the Walker Art Gallery in Liverpool.

    The measurement of when and where our eyes move, and how long they focus on specific objects, provides a time-sensitive index on what is important to viewers. We measured the eye movements of the visitors to the gallery who agreed to take part in our study as they looked at a set of five portraits of black sitters (including Two Jamaican Girls by Augustus John, 1937) and five portraits of white sitters (including Interior at Paddington by Lucian Freud, 1951).

    Their task was to say how much pleasure they experienced when looking at each painting. We also assessed the visitors to the gallery on their implicit racial attitudes and actual contact with different racial communities.

    Our results

    Our study showed that visitors to the gallery who reported little contact with black people and who held negative implicit racial attitudes reported experiencing little pleasure when viewing paintings showing black sitters.

    Perhaps more surprisingly, though they reported little pleasure, these visitors focused their attention more on the faces of the black sitters than others did. The results suggest that little contact with black people, combined with holding negative implicit racial attitudes, can be associated with an undue focus on black faces when viewing these paintings.

    We believe our findings suggest that negative implicit racial attitudes have not only influenced the historic content and composition of some paintings, but continue to exert an influence on the viewing of paintings in the present day. Moreover, the influence of negative implicit racial attitudes on the viewing of paintings exerts its effect even when the images themselves are quite neutral.

    Whether or not racist paintings are removed from public spaces, our results show that implicit racial attitudes will, for some viewers, continue to exert an influence on their perception of paintings representing black people and culture.



    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


    Tobiasz Trawinski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows – https://theconversation.com/historic-racism-still-negatively-affects-the-way-paintings-of-black-people-are-perceived-as-our-study-shows-227007

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shweta Singh, Assistant Professor, Information Systems and Management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    OpenAI, the company that made ChatGPT, has launched a new artificial intelligence (AI) system called Strawberry. It is designed not just to provide quick responses to questions, like ChatGPT, but to think or “reason”.

    This raises several major concerns. If Strawberry really is capable of some form of reasoning, could this AI system cheat and deceive humans?

    OpenAI can program the AI in ways that mitigate its ability to manipulate humans. But the company’s own evaluations rate it as a “medium risk” for its ability to assist experts in the “operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat” – in other words, a biological weapon. It was also rated as a medium risk for its ability to persuade humans to change their thinking.

    It remains to be seen how such a system might be used by those with bad intentions, such as con artists or hackers. Nevertheless, OpenAI’s evaluation states that medium-risk systems can be released for wider use – a position I believe is misguided.

    Strawberry is not one AI “model”, or program, but several – known collectively as o1. These models are intended to answer complex questions and solve intricate maths problems. They are also capable of writing computer code – to help you make your own website or app, for example.

    An apparent ability to reason might come as a surprise to some, since this is generally considered a precursor to judgment and decision making – something that has often seemed a distant goal for AI. So, on the surface at least, it would seem to move artificial intelligence a step closer to human-like intelligence.

    When things look too good to be true, there’s often a catch. Well, this set of new AI models is designed to maximise their goals. What does this mean in practice? To achieve its desired objective, the path or the strategy chosen by AI may not always necessarily be fair, or align with human values.

    True intentions

    For example, if you were to play chess against Strawberry, in theory, could its reasoning allow it to hack the scoring system rather than figure out the best strategies for winning the game?

    The AI might also be able to lie to humans about its true intentions and capabilities, which would pose a serious safety concern if it were to be deployed widely. For example, if the AI knew it was infected with malware, could it “choose” to conceal this fact in the knowledge that a human operator might opt to disable the whole system if they knew?

    Strawberry goes a step beyond the capabilities of AI chatbots.
    Robert Way / Shutterstock

    These would be classic examples of unethical AI behaviour, where cheating or deceiving is acceptable if it leads to a desired goal. It would also be quicker for the AI, as it wouldn’t have to waste any time figuring out the next best move. It may not necessarily be morally correct, however.

    This leads to a rather interesting yet worrying discussion. What level of reasoning is Strawberry capable of and what could its unintended consequences be? A powerful AI system that’s capable of cheating humans could pose serious ethical, legal and financial risks to us.

    Such risks become grave in critical situations, such as designing weapons of mass destruction. OpenAI rates its own Strawberry models as “medium risk” for their potential to assist scientists in developing chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

    OpenAI says: “Our evaluations found that o1-preview and o1-mini can help experts with the operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat.” But it goes on to say that experts already have significant expertise in these areas, so the risk would be limited in practice. It adds: “The models do not enable non-experts to create biological threats, because creating such a threat requires hands-on laboratory skills that the models cannot replace.”

    Powers of persuasion

    OpenAI’s evaluation of Strawberry also investigated the risk that it could persuade humans to change their beliefs. The new o1 models were found to be more persuasive and more manipulative than ChatGPT.

    OpenAI also tested a mitigation system that was able to reduce the manipulative capabilities of the AI system. Overall, Strawberry was labelled a medium risk for “persuasion” in Open AI’s tests.

    Strawberry was rated low risk for its ability to operate autonomously and on cybersecurity.

    Open AI’s policy states that “medium risk” models can be released for wide use. In my view, this underestimates the threat. The deployment of such models could be catastrophic, especially if bad actors manipulate the technology for their own pursuits.

    This calls for strong checks and balances that will only be possible through AI regulation and legal frameworks, such as penalising incorrect risk assessments and the misuse of AI.

    The UK government stressed the need for “safety, security and robustness” in their 2023 AI white paper, but that’s not nearly enough. There is an urgent need to prioritise human safety and devise rigid scrutiny protocols for AI models such as Strawberry.

    Shweta Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans – https://theconversation.com/openais-strawberry-program-is-reportedly-capable-of-reasoning-it-might-be-able-to-deceive-humans-239748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh

    The argument about the origins of COVID has always been heated, and nowadays it feels more like a brawl than a scientific debate.

    Some say that ground zero for the pandemic was a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Others argue that SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID) leaked from a nearby laboratory that was studying similar viruses. Both are plausible scenarios.

    Proponents of the market hypothesis have been aggressively vocal in recent weeks. In August, an anonymous editorial in a leading medical journal talked about the “hubris needed to underpin alternative hypotheses” and “fanciful ideas … more in keeping with popular movies”.

    A commentary in another journal lamented that scientists were being harassed for rejecting the lab leak hypothesis. With breathtaking hypocrisy, the same commentary then attacked a junior researcher who favours that hypothesis, dismissing her work as “conjecture, correlation and anecdote”.

    We can at least agree that the virus was present in the Wuhan market. Samples collected from market stalls and drains in early January 2020 contain SARS-CoV-2 genetic material. A recent analysis of this material, published in the journal Cell, claimed to show that the common ancestor of the viruses at the market was the common ancestor of the whole pandemic.

    That sounds compelling, until you realise that all of these samples were collected weeks after the pandemic began and none came from a live animal. Unaccountably, no samples were collected before the market was closed and the animals destroyed. Primarily for this reason, most commentators – including me – consider these latest results suggestive but not definitive.

    The lack of samples from animals is a problem. No one believes that this virus originated in Wuhan. The natural reservoirs of SARS-like coronaviruses are horseshoe bats, and no infected colonies have been found within 1,500km of the city.

    So it must have been brought into the market from somewhere. Yet no SARS-CoV-2 has been found along the supply chains for the animals sold there.

    Could a person rather than an animal have brought SARS-CoV-2 into the market in late 2019? That’s entirely possible. Many of the viruses near the base of the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral tree came from people with no links to the market. Several, including a cluster from Guangdong Province, were not even from Wuhan.

    Despite the many uncertainties and unanswered questions, it would be much easier to accept the market hypothesis if the pandemic had begun in one of the hundreds (or possibly thousands – no one seems to know for sure) of other Chinese cities that had similar markets in 2020.

    After all, the 2002 outbreak of the original SARS coronavirus (a very close relative of SARS-CoV-2) began in a market selling civet cats and other animals in, as it happens, Guangdong.

    Yet the epicentre of the COVID pandemic was less than 20 kilometres from China’s pre-eminent coronavirus research lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That is an extraordinary coincidence, and you’d need compelling evidence that the market was the source (or that the lab wasn’t) to dismiss it. The evidence we have simply isn’t that strong.

    That said, there is no evidence – at least, not that the Chinese authorities have shared – that SARS-CoV-2 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, though some closely related viruses were. I cannot know if it was or wasn’t, but it didn’t have to be.

    Scientists from the institute went on coronavirus-hunting expeditions to places such as Guangdong. Scientists from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention – just a five-minute walk from the market – were making their own expeditions, too. There’s an obvious and plausible alternative route to the first human case.

    Dismissed as a conspiracy theory

    Yet as far back as March 2020, on a bare minimum of evidence, the idea that a lab was involved in any way was already being dismissed as a conspiracy theory.

    Two years ago, one of the most strident proponents of the market hypothesis claimed that his latest research “lays to rest the idea that the virus escaped from a laboratory”. An author of the new analysis in Cell says alternative explanations are “fanciful” and “absurd”.

    Who is all this bombast supposed to win over? Not scientists who can read the research papers, take note of the caveats and make their own judgments. Not politicians who have taken an ideological stance on the issue, particularly in the US. And not the intelligence agencies who many believe are our best hope for getting at the truth.

    I have studied the origins of human viruses for 25 years but, having examined the evidence, I still don’t know how the COVID pandemic began. I do know that the question is important and that debating it should be encouraged, not stifled.

    Mark Woolhouse receives funding from the European Union and the Wellcome Trust. He is a member of the Scottish Government’s Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness and has advised the Scottish and UK governments, and the WHO, on pandemic preparedness and response.

    ref. Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us – https://theconversation.com/did-covid-come-from-an-animal-market-heres-what-the-new-evidence-really-tells-us-239533

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amrita Kulka, Assistant Professor, Political Economy and Public Economics, University of Warwick

    The UK is aiming to build 1.5 million homes over five years. Nick Beer/Shutterstock

    The UK’s new government is intent on building 1.5 million homes over the next five years. It’s all part of the plan to address the housing supply and affordability crisis.

    Many of these homes are to be built in the form of large communities or new towns of more than 10,000 housing units each. Some English new towns built after the second world war, such as Milton Keynes, Harlow and Basildon, have been successful economically. But the building of new towns has ground to a halt since the 1990s.

    The importance of large developments for housing supply in the UK has increased dramatically in the last 25 years. We have put together new evidence that reveals a significant shift in the source of housing supply. These days, an increasing share of new homes are coming from large developments.

    At the turn of the century, very large developments of at least 500 units made up only single digits of the total percentage of potential housing supply. Today, such developments represent 38% of permitted housing units. These very large projects only made up 0.2% of applications over the 25 years, but make up a disproportionately large chunk of new housing supply.

    This graphic shows the share of permitted new homes from 2000 to 2023 for applications of different development sizes across the UK.

    Proportion of new homes by development size

    Our research, undertaken with the support of our research assistant Alex Gallagher, explores the barriers that developments face in terms of paperwork and waiting time for a decision. We show that the amount of paperwork increases dramatically with the size of the project, going from one application for projects involving one unit, to more than eight applications for projects involving 500 or more units.

    The additional paperwork is generated by things like environmental surveys, infrastructure needs and public utilities.

    Northstowe in Cambridgeshire, which was planned to be the largest new town since Milton Keynes was built in the 1960s, also required funding for local infrastructure. Developers were obliged to contribute more than £120 million, most of which went to the construction of local schools. The development was left in limbo for around four years due to a delay to the expansion of the A14 trunk road, upon which the new town was entirely dependent. It is still not complete, with residents frustrated at the lack of infrastructure.

    In the case of Buckshaw Village, a new Lancashire development built on a former munitions factory, developers had to decontaminate the site. This required a £10.5 million contract to decontaminate more than 850 buildings.

    Of course many of these requirements are necessary, and beneficial for long-term planning. But it demonstrates that building a new town goes far beyond constructing houses.

    Decade-long delays

    In our research we also find that the time taken to reach a planning decision rises dramatically from projects involving one unit to projects involving two to nine units, and keeps rising for larger projects. The average time from the first application to the last decision is just over four years and four months for projects with more than 500 units. But even projects involving just one unit can expect to wait nearly a year.

    For bigger projects, waiting times for a decision are over 11 years in some cases (the most delayed 10%). One example is Ebbsfleet Valley – another newly planned town near London with large potential – which has seen only 4,000 of 43,000 planned homes built since planning began in 1996.

    The time taken for a planning decision plays a role in this delay. The borough councils resolved to grant outline planning permission (which lets a developer know if its plans are acceptable in principle) in 1998, two years after the application was submitted. But outline planning permission was not actually granted until November 2002. And then the need to supply more plans caused further delays, which meant building did not start until 2006 – 10 years after the original outline was filed.

    The long wait times for decisions, added to the fact that bigger developments must file additional applications, mean that housing supply from large projects is slow to be realised.

    These barriers have important implications for developers, which have to weigh the cost savings of large developments against the increased chance of obstacles that these larger developments are likely to throw up. So are new towns the most effective way to build a large amount of housing units in a short space of time?

    New towns are most comparable to the large-scale developments that represent an increasing share of residential units in the UK since the early 2000s.

    While these development schemes can deliver large amounts of housing alongside local infrastructure (at the developer’s expense rather than local government), they are unlikely to do so in the short term as they also face the toughest barriers under planning regulations.

    Therefore, so-called infill developments (that is, new buildings on unused or under-used land) as well as smaller and medium-sized developments, should not be neglected.

    Urban extensions and new neighbourhoods in the sites we’re already living in may provide ways to keep costs and uncertainties of new infrastructure to a minimum – even while planning larger developments or the new towns of the future.

    Amrita Kulka receives funding from Research England.

    Nikhil Datta receives funding from the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Economic and Social Research Council, and Research England.

    ref. Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis – https://theconversation.com/why-building-new-towns-isnt-the-answer-to-the-uks-housing-crisis-238635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ian Thacker, Assistant Professor of Educational Psychology, The University of Texas at San Antonio

    A playful approach can make the often complicated subject of climate change easier to understand. Victor Habbick Visions/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    Climate change is among the more difficult but important topics to teach to young people. It involves complicated science and data, and it can be really depressing, given the bleak picture it paints of Earth’s future.

    So how do educators get students more engaged in lessons about climate change? One way that works is to make the lessons into a game.

    As a professor of educational psychology, I conducted an experiment that found that high schoolers are more interested and absorb more information about climate change when it’s presented as a game.

    In the study, 248 high school students throughout the U.S. were randomly assigned to either read a text about climate science or to play a number estimation game – that is, a game in which they guessed 12 numerical facts about climate change. I found that the number estimation game improved high schoolers’ climate change understanding, interest in science and willingness to take actions to help solve climate change.

    For instance, one question asked: “What is the change in percentage of the world’s ocean ice cover since the 1960s?”

    After students submit an estimate, a window pops up showing the true value – a “40% decrease” in the ice cover question. Gold stars appear to indicate their accuracy, as does a short explanation of the true value. The answers also list actions that people can take to address the issue and links to the sources of the information.

    I found that students who played the game had a better understanding than those who did not that there is a scientific consensus around human-caused climate change. Students who played the game also thought the activity was more interesting and reported less boredom. These boosts in positive emotions and motivation were linked to reduced sense of hopelessness about climate change and improved willingness to act on climate change.

    Why it matters

    Climate change is a tricky topic for secondary students to learn. Not only is the science conceptually difficult to comprehend, but it can be psychologically difficult for them to accept and address the looming threat of climate change.

    Compounding this problem, a 2020 report suggests that 20 U.S. states do not address these challenges in their state science standards, as they were found to insufficiently address the scientific climate consensus: that climate change is real, severe, caused by humans, but that there is hope for change. Findings from my study provide some principles for addressing this curricular gap.

    What other research is being done?

    Researchers are actively trying to find approaches that promote accurate climate change education that helps students understand the causes and explores solutions for the challenges ahead.

    One promising approach emphasized in this study, in my prior research and by other researchers, is to present a handful of surprising climate change numbers to students after they estimate them. However, there are several alternative approaches that are also effective. For example, some research found success by breaking down complicated ways to evaluate evidence, while other research engaged students taking photographs of their local environment to depict climate science and reflect on possible solutions.

    What still isn’t known

    One big remaining question is how to encourage teachers to implement effective climate change education in their classrooms. Evidence suggests that teachers sometimes feel pressured to teach to “both sides” of the continuum of climate change perspectives, despite one side having more supporting evidence. Such inconsistent messages can diminish needed urgency and confuse students in the process. I think it’s worthwhile to investigate the specific challenges and rewards that teachers encounter when implementing clear and consistent climate curriculum in their classrooms.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Ian Thacker received funding to support this research from the American Psychological Association Division 15 Early Career Research Grant Award.

    ref. Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-easier-to-study-when-its-presented-as-a-game-236544

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Wood, President of the Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    A man prays at the Metropolitan Cathedral in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, in August 2022. Oswaldo Rivas/AFP via Getty Images

    The Nicaraguan government recently shut down more than 1,500 nonprofits – many of them civic and religious groups doing humanitarian work in a country long mired in political violence, economic upheaval and social strife.

    The August 2024 closures were the latest in a long-running crackdown on civil society, including religious groups – some of the last influential, independent organizations in the country. That same month, the government revoked churches’ tax-exempt status. Over the past few years, many houses of worship have been closed or had their bank accounts frozen.

    As a sociologist, I have worked with Central American scholars to research the role of religion in public life in Central America, including Nicaragua. Several hundred Catholic figures have been detained in an ongoing crackdown under President Daniel Ortega, now 78, who leads the Sandinista National Liberation Front.

    Sweeping suppression

    Ortega’s FSLN party, as it is known in Spanish, is the authoritarian remnant of the group that led a broad national movement against Anastasio Somoza Debayle’s dictatorship in the 1970s. After overthrowing Somoza in 1979, Ortega and the Sandinistas governed until losing the 1990 election.

    Since Ortega returned to power in the 2006 elections, moderates have fled the FSLN, which since then has used oppression and violence for political and social control. In 2013, the National Assembly removed presidential term limits set by the Nicaraguan constitution.

    In April 2018, Ortega’s regime began targeting student protesters. Since then, hundreds of citizens — religious leaders, university students, academics, journalists and doctors — have been killed or arrested, gone into hiding or been forced to flee the country.

    Ortega’s crackdown has been broad. Universities had their assets confiscated and funding cut, and some have been shut down as the government took control of higher education. Media outlets have been shuttered, and international aid organizations have been expelled.

    Paramilitary police officers and prison guards have been accused of engaging in arbitrary killings and torture. Meanwhile, a record number of refugees are fleeing the country.

    Parishioners attend Mass at St. Agatha Catholic Church in Miami, which has become the spiritual home of the growing Nicaraguan diaspora.
    AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

    Silencing churches

    Among the nearly 5,500 nonprofits that closed in Nicaragua between 2018 and 2024 are Catholic, evangelical Christian and historical Protestant organizations, as well as secular humanitarian ones. Of those, 1,650 organizations and churches were shuttered in August 2024, with government officials claiming their closure was due to ties to private enterprises or a lack of financial records.

    Catholic media and radio stations, missionary orders and humanitarian groups have been shuttered, too, as Ortega and the vice president – his wife, Rosario Murillo – have sought to eliminate settings where ideas and information freely flow, and people act independently of the government.

    The highest-profile religious leader caught up in the clampdown is Rolando Álvarez, a popular bishop, critic of Ortega, and a prominent Catholic voice of protest. Álvarez was detained in August 2022, accused of “conspiracy and spreading false news,” stripped of his citizenship and sentenced to 26 years in prison.

    Police officers and riot police block the main entrance of a church building in Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in August 2022 to prevent Bishop Rolando Álvarez from leaving.
    STR/AFP via Getty Images

    With international pressure mounting, Alvarez and a group of fellow detained Catholic clergy were released in January 2024 and exiled to the Vatican – where the regime had previously expelled the apostolic nuncio, the pope’s top diplomat in Nicaragua. They are among 245 Catholic figures the country has expelled in recent years. An additional 135 people, including Catholics and evangelicals, were expelled and stripped of their citizenship in September 2024.

    Today, 43% of Nicaraguan citizens identity as Catholics. But that percentage used to be much higher, and the country has deep cultural roots in Catholicism.

    In Nicaragua, as in much of Latin America, the Catholic Church is the most powerful source of social authority and the largest independent institution for public debate. It represents a key channel through which democratic values may take root, grow and thrive – an obstacle, in the regime’s eyes.

    For many years, the church was the only organization to escape Ortega’s grip – but no longer.

    Dangerous path

    I have witnessed firsthand Nicaragua’s shift from a country with promising seeds of democracy to violent autocracy. As civil war raged between the original Sandinista regime and U.S.-backed Contras in the 1980s, I led travel seminars to Nicaragua for faith groups, journalists, congressional aides and university students. I once personally encountered Ortega, serving as translator during a meeting with American journalists when his official translator failed to show up.

    Today, as Ortega continues to consolidate power by crushing opposition, Nicaragua has deteriorated into an oppressive state ruled with an iron fist. This reality reflects broader dynamics globally, from autocratic movements in the U.S. and Western Europe to current regimes in Russia, India, Turkey, Hungary and China.

    Nicaraguan citizens wave from a bus after being released from a Nicaraguan jail and landing in Guatemala City on Sept. 5, 2024.
    AP Photo/Moises Castillo

    Closer to home, Ortega poses a regional threat as a model for other potential autocrats. This is especially the case for neighbors like El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele – the popular, self-described “coolest dictator” – is going down a similar path of turning the nation into an authoritarian state.

    I have seen Nicaraguans’ generosity and courage in the long fight for liberty and justice. The closure of democratic spaces, civic institutions and humanitarian organizations, along with the suppression of religious freedom, is a glaring sign that the country is being marched toward more oppression and violence – and, as history shows, risks becoming ripe for revolution.

    Only a gradual rebuilding of civil society, I believe, may save Nicaragua from that fate. The tragedy is what Nicaragua could have been: a thriving democratic society, with a commitment to empowering the poor.

    From 1983-1987 and part-time from 1987-1992, Richard Wood worked running travel seminars in Mexico and Central America. From 2010-2012, he received funding from the Center on Religion and Civic Culture at the University of Southern California and The John Templeton Foundation for research collaboration with Central American researchers.

    ref. Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism – https://theconversation.com/continuing-crackdown-on-churches-and-ngos-moves-nicaragua-further-from-democracy-to-authoritarianism-238178

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Corey D. B. Walker, Dean and Wake Forest Professor of the Humanities, Wake Forest University

    The decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. selimaksan/E+ via Getty images.

    Supporters of both major U.S. political parties tend to claim their presidential candidate is the “real” Christian or the “better” Christian or just the “true” Christian.

    For a majority of white evangelical protestants, Trump is the good Christian. Christians for Kamala, a newly created group of self-identified Christians who support the Democratic nominee, say that her campaign embodies the “compassionate heart of Jesus and his teachings.”

    Yet, most American adults agree that religion should be separate from government. This widely shared belief is a cornerstone of religious freedom. As a scholar of religious freedom, I have studied the complex and ever-evolving role of religion in American politics. I argue that this election year, while the Christian character of each candidate is discussed everywhere, religious freedom, one of the core freedoms of American democracy, is not.

    The case of Ezra Stiles Ely

    America’s history of religious freedom is filled with stories that are instructive for our current moment. One such instructive lesson comes from the early 19th century.

    The Second Great Awakening was an intense period of religious revival. Evangelical Christians sought to reform American law and politics to reflect what they considered to be true Christianity. According to legal scholar Geoffrey R. Stone, it was at this time the claim that the “United States is a ‘Christian nation’ first seriously took root.”

    Ezra Stiles Ely.
    The New York Public Library digital collections

    A striking figure from the period is the Philadelphia Presbyterian minister Ezra Stiles Ely. On July 4, 1827, the Yale-educated minister delivered his infamous call for “a Christian political party” in the run-up to the 1828 presidential election.

    Ely’s oration, The Duty of Christian Freemen to Elect Christian Rulers, is a 19th-century version of what is today called “Christian nationalism.” In it, Ely lays out his view of a distinctly Christian vision of who should serve as political leaders and how they should govern.

    Before an Independence Day audience in Philadelphia’s Seventh Presbyterian Church, Ely declared, “Every ruler should be an avowed and sincere friend of Christianity. He should know and believe the doctrines of our holy religion, and act in conformity to its precepts.” Ely also advocated for “a new sort of union, or, if you will, a Christian party in politics.”

    Ely closed his sermon by exhorting Christians to “awake … to our sacred duty to our Divine Master; and let us have no rulers, without our consent and cooperation, who are not known to be avowedly Christians.”

    Critiques in defense of religious freedom

    While Ely sought to wed Christianity and American politics, others voices responded against this move. Religious freedom was new for the young nation. Yet, its supporters recognized its importance for American democracy.

    On Feb. 7, 1828, a pamphlet titled Sunday School Union, or Union of Church and State was placed on the desk of each member of the Pennsylvania Senate. The pamphlet contained excerpts of Ely’s speech that advocated the union of Christianity and politics. Ely’s speech was also the subject of debate in several 19th-century newspapers, including the Harrisburg Chronicle and The Pennsylvania Reporter.

    Notable among these voices was Massachusetts-born and Harvard-educated Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story.

    In an 1828 speech delivered in Salem, Massachusetts, Story boldly declared his support for religious freedom. He stated: “Religious freedom is the birthright of man; that governments have no authority to inflict punishment for conscientious differences of opinion; and that to worship God according to our own belief is not only our privilege, but is our duty, our absolute duty, from which no human tribunal can absolve us.”

    “Wherever religious liberty exist,” he argued, “it will, first or last, bring in, and establish political liberty.”

    Politics and American democracy

    America is not the same as at the time of the Second Great Awakening. Yet, the role of Christianity in political life is seemingly as alive as ever.

    The steady decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. The public square still contains powerful appeals to Christianity rather than a shared democratic heritage.

    Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump recently stated, “We have to bring back our religion. We have to bring back Christianity in this country.”

    Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has commended the religious convictions of citizens, stating, “People with deep religious convictions may be less likely to succumb to dominating ideologies or trends, and more likely to act in accordance with what they see as true and right. Civil society can count on them as engines of reform.”

    A 2023 survey, in which the nonprofit, nonpartisan research and education organization PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults, found that approximately 3 in 10 Americans either supported or held Christian nationalist views. Christian nationalists tend “to see political struggles through the apocalyptic lens of revolution and to support political violence.”

    In my opinion, the linkage of Christianity and politics in the United States undermines American democracy. Amanda Tyler, executive director of the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty, a prominent public voice, explains how Christian nationalism undermines both Christianity and American democracy. In her 2024 book “How to End Christian Nationalism,” Tyler writes, “Christian nationalism is the greatest threat to religious liberty in the U.S. today, as well as a clear and present danger to our constitutional republic.”

    While debates over the Christian virtues of the candidates may be important for Christian communities, religious freedom is important for American democracy. The response to Christianity and politics is not more Christianity but more democracy. And religious freedom is key.

    Corey D. B. Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy – https://theconversation.com/what-americas-history-can-teach-us-about-debates-on-religious-freedom-and-its-importance-for-democracy-238174

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Local government controls your roads, schools and utilities − but that doesn’t mean the US president doesn’t touch your life in important ways

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Zoe Nemerever, Professor of Political Science, Auburn University

    The top of the ticket often gets the most attention. Alex Brandon/AP Photo

    “All politics is local” is a common refrain – and yet, it is also true that the president has some unique powers.

    I am an expert on state policymaking, and I’m teaching presidential politics at Auburn University during this election season. Researching and teaching about both state and national politics has made me keenly aware of the stakes of the different races up and down the ballot this fall.

    Power close to home

    State and local governments shape our daily experiences in practical ways. State governments determine whether residents have access to expanded Medicaid, reproductive care, parental and family leave, and they set the state property, sales and income taxes, which we are all required to pay.

    City councils, county boards and school boards determine the quality of the roads we travel, the selection of books in school libraries and the prices of utilities such as water and sewer service.

    Most Americans will have the opportunity to vote for a variety of state and local elected officials this November. Yet many voters find their attention drawn to a more captivating contest: the presidential election.

    And it is hard to deny that the president has an outsized influence on American public policy.

    Staffing the government

    So what does the president do?

    It’s a busy job, for sure – including tasks such as signing executive orders, making treaties, vetoing or signing congressional bills, acting as the military’s commander in chief, attempting to build public support for their agenda and fundraising for the party.

    But one other big responsibility is often overlooked – that of passing out thousands of positions in the executive and judicial branches.

    The president’s appointment power is an enumerated power, meaning that it is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution.

    As the size of the judiciary and federal bureaucracy has grown over the past century, this presidential power has ballooned to include 4,000 appointments that turn over at the start of every administration. That doesn’t even include the vacancies that arise during the president’s term – for example, when a federal judge retires or dies.

    Perhaps the most well-known presidential appointment power is the power to nominate Supreme Court justices. These nominations tend to be highly political and dramatic affairs. This is due to their irregular and often sudden timing and to the high stakes of lifetime appointments.

    Some presidents don’t get to exercise this supreme power as much as they would like. But they still get to fill many other judgeships across the district courts, appellate courts and other federal courts.

    The Founding Fathers were adamant that the executive appointment power was not unilateral, as evidenced in Federalist Paper 76 penned by Alexander Hamilton. For 1,200 of the most consequential positions, the president nominates individuals, who are then confirmed – or not – by the U.S. Senate.

    The Founding Fathers perceived this as important for preventing the tyranny of a sole actor, which they had just worked so hard to leave behind under English rule.

    Assembling a Cabinet

    Some of the most consequential of these appointments are members of the presidential Cabinet.

    Much like how a head football coach assembles a team of assistants to enact their vision, the president convenes a team of policy champions to lead the 15 executive departments in the federal bureaucracy.

    Each department is run by a “secretary,” nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The president consults with Cabinet members at periodic meetings, but secretaries otherwise enjoy a great deal of autonomy. For this reason, the president tries to pick Cabinet members who share their policy perspective.

    Much of the agenda presidents claim credit for is, in fact, achieved by the Cabinet departments. For example, during the current Biden administration, the Department of Labor increased guaranteed overtime compensation, the Department of Health and Human Services recommended making marijuana a legal but regulated drug, and the Department of Education launched an initiative to tackle the post-COVID surge in chronic absenteeism.

    Cabinet members often fly under the radar of the media, and consequently voters, with a few exceptions. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg had his moment in the headlines earlier in 2024 when he announced a new federal rule that entitles airline passengers to prompt cash refunds when their flights are canceled or delayed. President Barack Obama’s Secretary of Education Arne Duncan was well known for his bus tours promoting the economic value of education. President George W. Bush’s Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spearheaded the noteworthy 2008 U.S.-India nuclear agreement.

    Crisis manager in chief, ad hoc

    Presidents also have the power to touch voters’ lives in profound ways by serving as a unifying character during national crises, a role that differentiates the president from other elected officials.

    These crises, unforeseen at the time of the election, require the president to swiftly reassure a distressed nation. For example, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President George W. Bush delivered an address that acknowledged the grief of Americans while imparting a stern guarantee that the United States would not cower to terrorists. President Donald Trump provided direction for a national response to an unprecedented global pandemic. President Bill Clinton shared heartfelt remarks at the memorial service of those killed in the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. And Obama honored victims of a racially motivated shooting at a church in Charleston, South Carolina.

    Presidential candidates of course cannot campaign on their ability to handle unpredictable, emergent situations. Instead, they talk up personal traits that will equip them to carry the nation through the next four years – whatever that may bring.

    During the recent 2024 presidential debate between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump, the candidates tried to demonstrate traits such as strength, humor and mental sharpness – all of which would prove invaluable during whatever the next four years throws our way.

    This November, voters will consider a diverse spread of candidates, from city mayor to president, each with important responsibilities.

    National, state and local governments work together to shape our perceptions, good or bad, about the role public policy plays in our lives – and I’d encourage voters to pay attention to candidates at both the top of the ballot and further down.

    Zoe Nemerever does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Local government controls your roads, schools and utilities − but that doesn’t mean the US president doesn’t touch your life in important ways – https://theconversation.com/local-government-controls-your-roads-schools-and-utilities-but-that-doesnt-mean-the-us-president-doesnt-touch-your-life-in-important-ways-237939

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why do people still back Trump, after everything? 5 things to understand about MAGA supporters’ thinking

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alex Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University – Newark

    Supporters watch Donald Trump speak at a rally in Uniondale, N.Y., on Sept. 18, 2024. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    For many people, especially those leaning left, Donald Trump’s disqualifications to be president seem obvious, prompting some to question: How could anyone still vote for Trump?

    Some of the evidence Trump’s critics cite include his two impeachments, multiple criminal indictments at the state and federal levels and a felony conviction. Opponents also say that Trump is a threat to democracy, a misogynist, racist, a serial liar and a rapist.

    About 78% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independent voters say that Trump broke the law when he allegedly tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But less than half of Republicans think he did anything wrong.

    I am an anthropologist of peace and conflict, and I have been studying what I call the Trumpiverse since 2015, when Trump descended a golden escalator and announced his candidacy for president. I later wrote a related book in 2021, called “It Can Happen Here.”

    More recently, I have been examining toxic polarization – and ways to stop it. Many efforts to reduce people’s polarized views begin with an injunction: Listen and understand.

    To this end, I have attended Trump rallies, populist and nonpartisan events and meetings where Democrats and Republicans connect and talk. Along the way, I have spoken with Trump supporters ranging from the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, faithful to moderate “hold the nose and vote for him” conservatives.

    And indeed, many on the left fail to understand who Trump voters are and how they vary. Trump’s base cannot simply be dismissed as racist “deplorables”, as Hillary Clinton famously said in 2016, or as country bumpkins in red MAGA hats. Trump voters trend older, white, rural, religious and less educated. But they include others outside those demographic groups.

    Many people have thoughtful reasons for voting for Trump, even if their reasoning – as is also true for those on the left – is often inflamed by populist polarizers and media platforms.

    Here are five key lines of reasoning that, in varying combinations, inform Trump voters’ choice.

    Donald Trump speaks at a rally on July 31, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pa.
    Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    1. Media distortion

    Where those on the left see Trump’s many failings, those on the right may see what some political observers call Trump Derangement Syndrome, sometimes simply called TDS.

    According to this line of argument, the left-leaning media dissects Trump’s every word, and the media then distorts what he says. I have found that some Trump supporters think that people who feed too much on this allegedly biased media diet can get TDS and develop a passionate, perhaps illogical dislike of Trump.

    I have also heard hardcore Trump supporters argue, with no evidence, that such “fake news” media outlets, like CNN, are part of a larger deep state plot of the federal government to upend the will of the people. This plot, according to those who propagate it, includes not just leftists, government bureaucrats and people who claim to be Republicans, but really aren’t, but also people in law enforcement.

    Some Trump supporters also see merit in his contention that he is being wrongly persecuted, just like some see the Jan. 6 defendants being persecuted.

    2. Bread on the table, money in the bank

    “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

    For many Trump voters, the answer to Ronald Reagan’s famous question is clear: “No.” They accurately remember Trump’s term as one of tax cuts, economic growth and stock market highs.

    It is true that overall employment numbers and average pay went up under President Joe Biden. But for some Trump supporters, that economic boost pales in comparison to the massive surge in inflation during Biden’s term, with prices rising almost 20%. While the inflation rate has recently abated, prices remain high – as voters are reminded of every day at the grocery store.

    Polls also show that Trump has a strong lead over Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on how they would handle the economy, which is a top concern for voters, especially Republicans.

    3. A border invasion

    Another reason some Americans want to vote for Trump: immigration.

    Like inflation, the number of people illegally crossing the border soared under Biden.

    This massive influx of “illegal aliens,” as Trump calls them, dropped to its lowest level in four years in July 2024. This happened after the Biden administration made it harder for immigrants to apply for asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, a policy measure that is in line with many Republicans’ approach.

    In 2022, a poll found 7 out of 10 Republicans worried that “open borders” were part of a Democratic plot to expand liberals’ power by replacing conservative white people with nonwhite foreigners.

    Trump has played into some people’s mostly false concerns that immigrants living illegally in the U.S. are freeloaders and won’t assimilate, as illustrated by recent – untrue – allegations that immigrants are eating pets in Ohio.

    In 2022, 82% of Republicans said they viewed immigration as a “very important” issue. Trump continues to tout his proposed solution, which includes shutting the border, building a wall and deporting 11 million immigrants who are living in the U.S. without legal authorization.

    People attend a Donald Trump rally in Uniondale, N.Y., on Sept. 18, 2024.
    Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    4. A proven record

    Some Trump voters simply compare the records of Trump and Biden-Harris and find that the tally tilts firmly toward Trump.

    And it’s not just about the economy and immigration.

    There were no new wars under Trump. Biden-Harris, in contrast, are saddled with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip. Trump supporters’ perception is that American taxpayers foot a large portion of the bill, even though other countries are also giving money to Ukraine, and Israel is actually buying weapons from the U.S.

    I have found that Trump supporters also think he is better suited to deal with the rising power and threat of China.

    5. The MAGA bull in a china shop

    While some Harris supporters lament Trump’s destruction of democracy and decency in politics, I have found that Trump voters see a charismatic MAGA bull in a china shop.

    It is precisely because Trump is an unrelenting pugilist, or a fighter – as he showed when he raised a fist after the assassination attempt against him in July – that he should be elected, his supporters believe.

    Some even view him as savior – who will save the U.S. from a “radical left” apocalypse.

    For such Trump stalwarts, MAGA is not simply a slogan. In the Trumpiverse, it is a movement to save an America that is on the brink of failure.

    Alexander Hinton receives funding from the Rutgers-Newark Center for the Study of Politics and Race in America.

    ref. Why do people still back Trump, after everything? 5 things to understand about MAGA supporters’ thinking – https://theconversation.com/why-do-people-still-back-trump-after-everything-5-things-to-understand-about-maga-supporters-thinking-239031

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is ‘dark money’ political spending, and how does it affect US politics?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Emily Lau, Staff Attorney, State Democracy Research Initiative, University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Where exactly did this money come from? Manuel Augusto Moreno/Moment via Getty Images

    Every campaign season brings renewed attention to the amount of money influencing American politics, and who is spending it, and for what purposes. In particular, people are concerned about what is called “dark money.” For instance, recent media coverage has pointed to escalating dark money spending on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

    The term sounds scary and raises the specter of shadowy people manipulating the nation’s politics. As a researcher who studies the American democratic system, I think it’s worthwhile to unpack what dark money is, what concerns it raises and what might be done to address it.

    Unidentified political donors

    When people talk about dark money, they’re usually referring to money spent on elections that comes from sources that cannot be identified.

    Federal and state laws impose some limits on contributions and require some political contributions and expenditures to be publicly disclosed. Candidates for federal office, for example, must report their campaign donors to the Federal Election Commission. The FEC makes these reports available to the public.

    Likewise, super PACs – groups permitted to spend unlimited amounts on independent electoral advocacy – must also report some information about donations, such as the identities of and amounts given by people who donate more than US$200 in a year.

    But campaign finance disclosure laws have gaps.

    Federal law, for example, allows certain entities – most notably nonprofits designated as “social welfare” organizations or trade associations under Sections 501(c)(4) and 501(c)(6) of the tax code – to raise and spend large sums on electoral advocacy without disclosing their donors.

    A CBS News investigation into dark money in U.S. politics.

    Another dark money pathway involves making donations to super PACs through shell companies, which are companies set up for the purpose of hiding the financial activities of other people or groups – in this case, political contributions. Although super PACs are legally required to report who they received the contributions from, if the funds come from shell companies, the super PACs may not know and are not required to disclose where the money actually came from. That information remains hidden from public view.

    A lack of donor transparency raises multiple concerns. Voters may have a harder time assessing the validity of political messages or discerning whether candidates may be beholden to certain interests. Regulators and watchdogs can have trouble detecting illegal activity, such as campaign spending by foreign nationals. And unscrupulous people and groups can spread misinformation or destructive rhetoric without being identified or held accountable.

    Undisclosed political expenditures

    While discussions of dark money usually focus on where it comes from, the term can also describe a lack of transparency about where it goes.

    Under federal law, campaign committees must report their direct disbursements, such as payments to vendors or consultants. These vendors and consultants, however, sometimes function as pass-through entities that receive campaign funds and then purchase undisclosed goods and services. And any of these recipients can be set up as shell companies, making the flow of funds even more difficult to track.

    For instance, Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign and the Democratic National Committee faced FEC complaints for failing to disclose indirect payments made through the campaign’s law firm to researchers who compiled a dossier on Donald Trump’s Russia ties. The Clinton campaign and the DNC paid a fine to settle the matter without conceding wrongdoing.

    But enforcement can be difficult. In 2020, a watchdog group filed an FEC complaint alleging that Trump’s reelection campaign directed hundreds of millions of dollars to a pass-through entity in an improper effort to hide its expenditures – which included payments to top advisers and family members that, by law, would have otherwise been disclosed. The FEC dismissed the Trump complaint in 2022 when commissioners deadlocked 3-3 on whether to pursue it.

    As with a lack of donor disclosure, a lack of expenditure disclosure can deprive voters and regulators of valuable information. Lack of transparency can also invite questionable campaign practices, such as using donated funds in ways that enrich candidates, campaign staff or their associates.

    It can be hard to determine who is really behind shell companies and campaign donors.
    nicodemos/E+ via Getty Images

    Stalled federal reforms

    Proponents of greater campaign finance transparency have had little success pressing federal lawmakers and regulators to address dark money.

    Since 2010, congressional Democrats have been introducing legislation known as the DISCLOSE Act. Among other requirements, it would make dark money groups reveal major donors and restrict the use of shell companies to conceal donors’ identities. While versions of the bill have passed the House, they have repeatedly stalled in the Senate. Opponents maintain that these measures would infringe people’s privacy rights and chill constitutionally protected speech.

    Advocates have also made minimal headway persuading Congress or federal agencies to adopt new disclosure regulations or tighten enforcement.

    The FEC, which has an even partisan split among its six commissioners, has often been unable to get a majority to agree to take action. And the FEC’s most notable recent decisions have been to loosen, rather than tighten, campaign finance rules. Congress has barred the Securities and Exchange Commission from establishing new political spending disclosure rules for public companies, although some companies self-report more than the law requires.

    States’ efforts to curb dark money

    Dark money is also an issue in state and local elections. The strength of state and local transparency laws varies. Because these elections typically receive less attention and scrutiny than federal elections, money sometimes flows even more opaquely.

    Unlike the federal government, a number of states and localities have bolstered their disclosure rules in recent years. Arizona, California, Colorado, New Jersey and Washington, for example, have passed new laws requiring more donor information, including about the original sources of funds that are transferred between multiple groups before being spent on electioneering.

    Meanwhile, states such as Iowa, Massachusetts and Texas have adopted laws requiring campaigns to provide details about how consultants and vendors spend the campaign’s funds.

    Even in these states, disclosure gaps remain. The reality is that efforts to improve transparency can seem like a game of whack-a-mole: Each new round of regulations tends to generate new workarounds. But the experiences in these states and elsewhere may offer models and lessons for other jurisdictions.

    The current Supreme Court has given mixed messages about campaign finance transparency.
    Fred Schilling, Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States

    Constitutional questions

    Beyond the political challenge of getting stronger transparency regulations adopted, proponents of such measures also face potential constitutional challenges by opponents of disclosure.

    In multiple cases, including the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected First Amendment claims brought by political spenders who wished to conceal their identities. In that case, the court observed that transparency helps the electorate “make informed decisions and give proper weight to different speakers and messages.”

    However, the Supreme Court has also recognized a right to engage in anonymous political speech. And in recent years, the court’s conservative supermajority has become somewhat more skeptical of disclosure rules, including in a 2021 case, Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta, which overturned a state law requiring charities to identify major donors. In her dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned that the court’s argument could be applied to campaign finance disclosure regulations.

    Therefore, even if public momentum builds for stronger transparency regulations, the Supreme Court could stand as an obstacle to such reforms.

    Emily Lau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What is ‘dark money’ political spending, and how does it affect US politics? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-dark-money-political-spending-and-how-does-it-affect-us-politics-236294

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can you change your personality? Psychology research says yes, by tweaking what you think and do

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shannon Sauer-Zavala, Associate Professor of Psychology & Licensed Clinical Psychologist, University of Kentucky

    Making a personality change could help you live the life you want. lechatnoir/E+ via Getty Images

    Have you ever taken a personality test? If you’re like me, you’ve consulted BuzzFeed and you know exactly which Taylor Swift song “perfectly matches your vibe.”

    It might be obvious that internet quizzes are not scientific, but many of the seemingly serious personality tests used to guide educational and career choices are also not supported by research. Despite being a billion-dollar industry, commercial personality testing used by schools and corporations to funnel people into their ideal roles do not predict career success.

    Beyond their lack of scientific support, the most popular approaches to understanding personality are problematic because they assume your traits are static – that is, you’re stuck with the personality you’re born with. But modern personality science studies find that traits can and do change over time.

    In addition to watching my own personality change over time from messy and lazy to off the charts in conscientiousness, I’m also a personality change researcher and clinical psychologist. My research confirms what I saw in my own development and in my patients: People can intentionally shape the traits they need to be successful in the lives they want. That’s contrary to the popular belief that your personality type places you in a box, dictating that you choose partners, activities and careers according to your traits.

    What personality is and isn’t

    According to psychologists, personality is your characteristic way of thinking, feeling and behaving.

    Are you a person who tends to think about situations in your life more pessimistically, or are you a glass-half-full kind of person?

    Do you tend to get angry when someone cuts you off in traffic, or are you more likely to give them the benefit of the doubt – maybe they’re rushing to the hospital?

    Do you wait until the last minute to complete tasks, or do you plan ahead?

    You can think of personality as a collection of labels that summarize your responses to questions like these. Depending on your answers, you might be labeled as optimistic, empathetic or dependable.

    Research suggests that all these descriptive labels can be summarized into five overarching traits – what psychologists creatively refer to as the “Big Five.”

    As early as the 1930s, psychologists literally combed through a dictionary to pull out all the words that describe human nature and sorted them in categories with similar themes. For example, they grouped words like “kind,” “thoughtful” and “friendly” together. They found that thousands of words could be accounted for by sorting them between five traits: neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness, agreeableness and openness.

    Personality traits can be sorted into the ‘Big Five’ categories. They describe how you act but not necessarily the essence of who you are.
    Whale Design/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    What personality is not: People often feel protective about their personality – you may view it as the core of who you are. According to scientific definitions, however, personality is not your likes, dislikes or preferences. It’s not your sense of humor. It’s not your values or what you think is important in life.

    In other words, shifting your Big Five traits does not change the core of who you are. It simply means learning to respond to situations in life with different thoughts, feelings and behaviors.

    Can you change your personality?

    Can personality change? Remember, personality is a person’s characteristic way of thinking, feeling and behaving. And while it might sound hard to change personality, people change how they think, feel and behave all the time.

    Suppose you’re not super dependable. If you start to think “being on time shows others that I respect them,” begin to feel pride when you arrive to brunch before your friends, and engage in new behaviors that increase your timeliness – such as getting up with an alarm, setting appointment reminders and so on – you are embodying the characteristics of a reliable person. If you maintain these changes to your thinking, emotions and behaviors over time – voila! – you are reliable. Personality: changed.

    Data confirms this idea. In general, personality changes across a person’s life span. As people age, they tend to experience fewer negative emotions and more positive ones, are more conscientious, place greater emphasis on positive relationships and are less judgmental of others.

    There is variability here, though. Some people change a lot and some people hold pretty steady. Moreover, studies, including my own, that test whether personality interventions change traits over time find that people can speed up the process of personality change by making intentional tweaks to their thinking and behavior. These tweaks can lead to meaningful change in less than 20 weeks, instead of 20 years.

    Identifying patterns that your thoughts frequently fall into can be the first step toward making a change.
    Maskot via Getty Images

    Cultivating personality traits that serve you best

    The good news is that these cognitive-behavioral techniques are relatively simple, and you don’t need to visit a therapist if that’s not something you’re into.

    The first component involves changing your thinking patterns – this is the cognitive piece. You need to become aware of your thoughts to determine whether they’re keeping you stuck acting in line with a particular trait. For example, if you find yourself thinking “people are only looking out for themselves,” you are likely to act defensively around others.

    The behavioral component involves becoming aware of your current action tendencies and testing out new responses. If you are defensive around other people, they will probably respond negatively to you. When they withdraw or snap at you, for example, it then confirms your belief that you can’t trust others. By contrast, if you try behaving more openly – perhaps sharing with a co-worker that you’re struggling with a task – you have the opportunity to see whether that changes the way others act toward you.

    These cognitive-behavioral strategies are so effective for nudging personality because personality is simply your characteristic way of thinking and behaving. Consistently making changes to your perspective and actions can lead to lasting habits that ultimately result in crafting the personality you desire.

    Shannon Sauer-Zavala receives funding from that National Institute of Mental Health to support her research.

    ref. Can you change your personality? Psychology research says yes, by tweaking what you think and do – https://theconversation.com/can-you-change-your-personality-psychology-research-says-yes-by-tweaking-what-you-think-and-do-237190

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: America is increasingly dependent on foreign doctors − but their path to immigration is getting harder

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Selma Hedlund, Postdoctoral Associate at Center of Forced Displacement, Boston University

    For immigrant doctors, the path to permanent residency is fleeting and far from guaranteed. Stefano Spicca/iStock via Getty Images

    The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a pressing issue: The U.S. health care system is increasingly dependent on immigrant physicians, but it’s becoming harder for aspiring ones to work and settle in the U.S.

    Today, 1 in 4 doctors are foreign-born, international medical graduates. Their numbers are even larger in underserved areas – essentially, low-income, more rural parts of the country where many American doctors don’t want to work.

    This immigrant workforce is key to offsetting a dire physician shortage. The need for more doctors is due, in part, to America’s growing and aging population; U.S.-born doctors’ unwillingness to move to poorer and more rural areas; and U.S.-born doctors’ lack of interest in going into primary care, which can be less lucrative and prestigious than other areas of medicine.

    As a result, immigrant doctors have become indispensable in hospitals and clinics across the nation. But while they’re in demand, more and more foreign doctors are starting to see the immigration process as a risky endeavor.

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, I wrote my dissertation about how immigrant physicians navigate the U.S. immigration system and foreign licensing procedures. My interviewees described how a combination of stricter immigration policies and more competition for residency spots have made the U.S. a less feasible destination.

    Visa vicissitudes

    U.S. visas can be categorized into two categories: immigrant and nonimmigrant. Nonimmigrant visas, such as tourist, student or exchange visitors visas, prohibit holders from having what’s called “immigrant intent,” meaning that they don’t plan to use their visas to permanently stay in the U.S.

    In order for immigrant doctors to be licensed to practice in the U.S., they need to complete licensing exams. They also need to obtain clinical experience in the U.S. This can be completed while on a tourist visa or a student visa, which are relatively easy to obtain.

    However, all immigrant physicians – even if they’re certified specialists in their home country – need to get accepted into and complete a U.S. residency program in order to practice in the U.S. as specialists. These are intensive, supervised training programs that can last up to seven years.

    Nonetheless, a majority of immigrant doctors in the U.S. will complete their American residencies on nonimmigrant visas, even though by this point in the process they quite clearly have immigrant intent.

    It wasn’t always this way.

    There’s a special work visa called the H-1B that allows for both immigrant and nonimmigrant intent. A few decades ago, many immigrant physicians entered residency programs that sponsored H-1B visas, which served as stepping stones to green cards.

    But drastic restrictions to the number of people admitted into this visa program, coupled with cuts in graduate medical education funding, have directed most foreign-born doctors to what’s called a J-1 exchange visitors visa.

    Challenges of working in underserved areas

    The J-1 not only explicitly prohibits immigration intent, it also requires that doctors return to their home country for at least two years upon completing American residency training.

    Foreign-born doctors nonetheless pursue the J-1 because there’s the opportunity to obtain a waiver, with limited slots that will allow them to remain in the U.S. and adjust to an H-1B visa. If selected for the waiver program, they must commit to a minimum of three years of service in a designated medically underserved area in the U.S.

    Through a special waiver, immigrant doctors can work at rural hospitals that are underfunded and understaffed.
    Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    While this system can offer short-term relief to physician shortages, it can also lead to exploitation.

    As one interviewee told me, “We hear very scary things about the J-1 waiver. The employers can take advantage and make you work more and pay less.”

    For the duration of the waiver program, immigrant physicians have minimal ability to change employers without violating the conditions of the waiver – and their path to immigration. Underserved areas are often understaffed and underresourced, which can make for stressful working conditions.

    Forced to go above and beyond

    The challenges don’t end with the visa process. There are financial burdens as well.

    International medical graduates often spend tens of thousands of dollars to pay for U.S. medical licensing exams, multiple visa applications, international travel and lodging, residency and green card applications.

    They also spend months in unpaid positions in hospital settings to gain the U.S. clinical experience that’s required to apply for residency. Then, in order to match into residency, immigrant physicians typically need to outperform their American peers on exams. They also need to have more prestigious research qualifications and stronger recommendation letters. Still, immigrant doctors are more likely to match into less competitive residency programs.

    While interviewing immigrant physicians, many testified to the competition getting steeper in recent years.

    “I told a friend, if you don’t have scores in upper 90s in all the exams and you’re not a green card holder, don’t even bother,” an Indian physician who immigrated 20 years ago explained to me. “It’s so tough.”

    Stuck in limbo

    Over the course of my research I noticed a trend: Many international medical graduates will come to the U.S. on student visas to pursue U.S. graduate degrees in health-related fields, such as public health, before they even start the licensing process. This helps them get their foot in the door into a very complicated immigration system and build a stronger resume as they prepare for residency applications. It’s also another expensive investment.

    But even those who match into and complete residency won’t necessarily be able to stay and work in America.

    Those with positive experiences from working in underserved communities often struggle to remain in their positions after their waiver contracts are fulfilled because of the green card backlog.

    The average immigrant’s wait time for a green card has doubled since the national quota system was introduced in the early 1990s.

    By 2018, an applicant had to wait an average of 18 months to get approved for their green card and another five years and eight months to receive it. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced new barriers and delays.

    Indians, one of the biggest nationalities among immigrant physicians, have the longest wait times under the current system, sometimes waiting up to a decade to obtain the security of permanent residence. Among the 1.8 million cases currently stuck in the employment-based green card backlog, 63% are Indian nationals.

    A pending green card application is often formally considered abandoned if the applicant leaves the country, preventing people from visiting loved ones abroad for years.

    No fix on the horizon

    Despite frequent calls for change and reform, these bottlenecks continue to adversely affect both patients and doctors.

    While the current model has its benefits, it also reflects a trend in which much-needed immigrant professionals live in prolonged, demoralizing uncertainty. Work visas have been subject to increasing cuts and restrictions in recent years under both the Trump and Biden administrations. Conditions will likely worsen if Trump returns to office: The “Muslim ban” he enacted in 2017 adversely affected many immigrant doctors and their patients, and his calls for increased vetting will likely exacerbate existing barriers to legal immigration.

    A paradox has emerged: While the U.S. says it wants to attract and retain world class talent, its byzantine immigration system continually discourages potential hires.

    The doctors I interviewed gave a variety of reasons for wanting to work in the U.S., including better lifestyles and opportunities for professional development. But the complexity and sheer unwieldiness of the U.S. visa regime is causing the nation to lose skilled professionals to other countries with more streamlined processes.

    Selma Hedlund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. America is increasingly dependent on foreign doctors − but their path to immigration is getting harder – https://theconversation.com/america-is-increasingly-dependent-on-foreign-doctors-but-their-path-to-immigration-is-getting-harder-229980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Diet-related diseases are the No. 1 cause of death in the US – yet many doctors receive little to no nutrition education in med school

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nathaniel Johnson, Assistant Professor of Nutrition and Dietetics, University of North Dakota

    Nearly 60% of respondents to one medical school survey said they received no nutritional education at all. Peter Dazeley/The Image Bank via Getty Images

    On television shows like “Grey’s Anatomy,” “The Resident” and “Chicago Med,” physicians seem to always have the right answer.

    But when it comes to nutrition and dietary advice, that may not be the case.

    One of us is an assistant professor of nutrition and dietetics; the other is a medical student with a master’s degree in nutrition.

    Both of us understand the powerful effects that food has on your health and longevity. A poor diet may lead to cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity and even psychological conditions like depression and anxiety. Diet-related diseases are the leading causes of death in the U.S., and a poor diet is responsible for more deaths than smoking.

    These health problems are not only common and debilitating, but expensive. Treating high blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol costs about US$400 billion per year. Within 25 years, those costs are expected to triple, to $1.3 trillion.

    These facts support the need for physicians to give accurate advice about diet to help prevent these diseases. But how much does a typical physician know about nutrition?

    The deficiencies in nutrition education happen at all levels of medical training.

    What doctors don’t know

    In a 2023 survey of more than 1,000 U.S. medical students, about 58% of respondents said they received no formal nutrition education while in medical school for four years. Those who did averaged about three hours of nutrition education per year.

    That is woefully short of the goals set by the U.S. Committee on Nutrition in Medical Education back in 1985: that med students should receive a total of 25 hours of nutrition education while in school – a little more than six hours per year.

    But a 2015 study showed only 29% of medical schools met this goal, and a 2023 study suggests the problem has become even worse – only 7.8% of med students reported 20 or more hours of nutrition education across all four years of med school. If this is representative of medical schools throughout the country, it has happened despite efforts to bolster nutrition education through numerous government initiatives.

    Not surprisingly, the lack of education has had a direct impact on physicians’ nutrition knowledge. In a study of 257 first- and second-year osteopathic medical students taking a nutrition knowledge quiz, more than half flunked the test. Prior to the test, more than half the students – 55% – felt comfortable counseling patients on nutrition.

    Unfortunately, this problem is not limited to U.S. medical schools. A 2018 global study concluded that no matter the country, nutrition education of med students is insufficient throughout the world.

    Bringing nutrition education back

    Even though evidence suggests that nutrition education can be effective, there are many reasons why it’s lacking. Medical students and physicians are some of the busiest people in society. The amount of information taught in medical curricula is often described as overwhelming – like drinking out of a fire hose.

    First- and second-year medical students focus on dense topics, including biochemistry, molecular biology and genetics, while they learn clinical skills such as interviewing patients and understanding heart and lung sounds. Third- and fourth-year students are practicing in clinics and hospitals as they learn from physicians and patients.

    As a result, their schedules are already jammed. There is no room for nutrition. And once they are physicians, it gets no better. Providing preventive care including nutrition counseling to patients would take them more than seven hours per week – and that’s not counting the time they would have to spend on continuing education to keep up with new findings in nutrition science.

    On top of that, the lack of nutrition education in medical schools has been attributed to a dearth of qualified instructors for nutrition courses, as most physicians do not understand nutrition well enough to teach it.

    Ironically, many medical schools are part of universities that have nutrition departments with Ph.D.-trained professors; those academicians could fill this gap by teaching nutrition to medical students. But those classes are often taught by physicians who may not have adequate nutrition training – which means truly qualified instructors, within reach of most medical schools, are left out of the process.

    This doctor said he learned virtually nothing about nutrition in medical school.

    Finding the right advice

    The best source of nutrition information, whether for medical students or the general public, is a registered dietitian, certified nutrition specialist or some other type of nutrition professional with multiple degrees and certification. They study for years and record many practice hours in order to give dietary advice.

    Although anyone can make an appointment with a nutrition professional for dietary counseling, typically a referral from a health care provider like a physician is needed for the appointment to be covered by insurance. So seeing a physician or other primary care provider is often a step before meeting with a nutrition professional.

    This extra step might be one reason why many people look elsewhere, such as on their phones, for nutrition advice. However, the worst place to look for accurate nutrition information is social media. There, about 94% of posts about nutrition and diet are of low value – either inaccurate or lacking adequate data to back up the claim.

    Keep in mind that anyone can post nutrition advice on social media, regardless of their qualifications. Good dietary advice is individualized and takes into account one’s age, sex, goals, body weight, goals and personal preferences. This complexity is tough to capture in a brief social media post.

    The good news is that nutrition education, when it occurs, is effective, and most medical students and physicians acknowledge the critical role nutrition plays in health. In fact, close to 90% of med students say nutrition education should be a mandatory part of medical school.

    We hope that nutrition education, after being devalued or ignored for decades, will soon be an integral part of every medical school’s curriculum. But given its history and current status, this seems unlikely to happen anytime soon.

    In the meantime, those who want to learn more about a healthy diet should meet with a nutrition professional, or at the very least read the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans or the World Health Organization’s healthy diet recommendations.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Diet-related diseases are the No. 1 cause of death in the US – yet many doctors receive little to no nutrition education in med school – https://theconversation.com/diet-related-diseases-are-the-no-1-cause-of-death-in-the-us-yet-many-doctors-receive-little-to-no-nutrition-education-in-med-school-236217

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kenya’s whistleblowers are key to fighting corruption: how a new law could protect them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Gedion Onyango, Research Fellow, Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, London School of Economics and Political Science

    Kenya has published a draft bill outlining protections for whistleblowers. Long in the making, the Whistleblower Protection Bill 2024 could help to encourage disclosures in a country where 86% of the respondents to a 2023 survey feared what might happen to them if they reported corruption cases. Gedion Onyango, who researches public accountability reforms, anti-corruption and whistleblowing reforms, sets out what protections are needed and how to change public mindsets.

    What is whistleblowing?

    Whistleblowing is disclosing information about behaviour or misconduct that could harm the public interest – the overall welfare of a society.

    Whistleblowing is primarily associated with disclosing corruption in state institutions. Because the private sector has become a partner in public service and national development processes, emerging laws like Kenya’s whistleblower protection bill and existing ones like Botswana’s Whistleblower Protection Act 2016 have been designed also to expose activities of companies and institutions that directly affect public affairs.

    Several key conditions must be met for whistleblowing to be effective.




    Read more:
    Corruption in South Africa: would paying whistleblowers help?


    Firstly, the society needs to broadly agree on what misconduct is. People should feel obliged to flag and address wrongdoing, and know what is expected when such information is disclosed. Essentially, the disclosure must be made in good faith.

    Secondly, there must be an authority that is expected to and is willing to take action after receiving such information.

    Thirdly, clear procedures or legal processes should be in place for receiving the information and determining the truth.

    The person disclosing the information must find it easy to report, besides having sufficient evidence to support their claims. A thoroughly bureaucratic way of receiving information about wrongdoing is more likely to intimidate and discourage potential whistleblowers.

    Fourthly, a system should be in place to reward individuals who disclose wrongdoing. This could involve recognising their contribution to society or providing financial incentives, often a percentage of money recovered in cases of corruption and asset recovery. Not all countries have this provision. But having such a reward is not always enough. This has been shown in Nigeria, where whistleblowing is declining despite the reward of 5% of recovered funds.

    Finally, there needs to be trust in the authority and the process for it to work.

    Why the focus on whistleblowers?

    Whistleblowers are important sources of information about misconduct, dishonesty and unethical behaviour that would otherwise remain concealed from the public. They are critical in promoting human rights, fighting corruption and addressing governance misconduct and inequalities.

    Many infamous scandals around the world have been brought to light by individuals who disclosed the wrongdoing. These include Kenya’s Anglo Leasing scandal.

    Whistleblowing is essential to ethical public leadership. It is no accident that many developing countries are now enacting laws to encourage and protect whistleblowers. With new laws in Kenya, whistleblowers would no longer have to primarily defend themselves against non-disclosure clauses that outlaw disclosures of a potential wrongdoing. Whistleblowers have previously been targeted by public organisations for releasing information in an unprocedural manner.

    You want to blow the whistle. What next?

    Potential whistleblowers can use internal or external mechanisms to disclose wrongdoing. The choice of mechanism will depend on the whistleblower’s confidence or history with these mechanisms.

    Studies have shown that internal whistleblowing is less desirable, and most whistleblowers prefer anonymous external whistleblowing channels that could prompt an investigation by an authority.




    Read more:
    South Africa’s corporate whistleblowers don’t get enough protection: what needs to change


    What protections should whistleblowers expect?

    Effective whistleblower protection mechanisms include protecting the identities of whistleblowers until the responsible authority has checked that there was wrongdoing.

    Whistleblowers should be protected from retaliation or harm, including social victimisation, physical attacks and disciplinary actions.

    The law should ensure that an insider whistleblower, such as an employee, is protected from being intimidated, disciplined or removed from their position. This should be for a long enough time (for example, at least five years), even if the case ultimately collapses, as often happens.

    In other words, the person should be protected from any loss, including damages that would affect their mental health or their job. This is typical of legislation globally.

    In today’s age of social media, the laws against defamation should be applied strictly to guard against online harassment.

    What would a forward-looking whistleblower policy look like?

    It’s important that whistleblower protection policies are understood and accepted by everyone. The process should start with extensive consultation. It should involve authorities such as religious groups, traditional leaders and government administrators at the lowest levels.

    Including whistleblowing in the country’s school, college and professional curriculum would increase awareness and improve social acceptance.

    It’s often the case that whistleblowers are seen as betrayers or snitches rather than as courageous defenders of public interest and ethical members of society. The reward system for whistleblowers should be included in prestigious national honours such as the Presidential Award.

    Gedion Onyango receives funding from ESRC. He is also affiliated with Afrobarometer East Africa

    ref. Kenya’s whistleblowers are key to fighting corruption: how a new law could protect them – https://theconversation.com/kenyas-whistleblowers-are-key-to-fighting-corruption-how-a-new-law-could-protect-them-239647

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: South African women face exclusion from society due to gender-based violence – how they’re fighting back

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Amanda Gouws, Professor of Political Science and Chair of the South African Research Initiative in Gender Politics, Stellenbosch University

    When South Africa became a democracy in 1994, a primary goal was to grant citizenship rights to all its people, in particular, to give the majority black South Africans rights they had been denied during colonialism and apartheid. This included the right to vote.

    Apartheid segregated the population into ethnic groups. All but people classified as white were stripped of their rights. The 1996 constitution conferred upon citizens civil liberties such as the right to vote, movement, association and free speech as well as substantive rights such as access to land, health, education and employment.

    But, as I argue in the Palgrave Handbook of Gender and Citizenship, full citizenship is about more than a legal status that grants rights. Full citizenship also means being able to fully participate in a society.

    Based on my research into South African politics and gender politics over the past three decades I argue in a recent chapter that women in South Africa don’t enjoy full citizenship because they face endemic gender-based violence.

    Sexual violence against women has become normalised in South Africa. Everyday spaces are filled with violence, as indicated by the South African Police Service’s quarterly crime statistics.

    I conclude in the book chapter that people who feel excluded turn to protest to claim their rights as citizens. In doing so they become activist citizens.

    Acts of citizenship can occur in many different places – on streets, in courts, at borders, or even through media. They can happen on different scales, from local community action to international movements. These acts may involve protests, organising campaigns, or using digital media to spread awareness. People engaging in these acts might demand a wide range of rights, including political, social, sexual, ecological, or cultural rights.




    Read more:
    Gender apartheid: oppression of women should be made a crime against humanity – feminist academic explains why


    While legal frameworks to enhance citizenship have changed over the past 30 years in South Africa, deep-seated inequalities and exclusions persist. Law reform cannot address high levels of unemployment (that need to be rectified through economic growth), neither can it address poverty that is endemic because of the legacies of apartheid, such as the exclusion from decent education and health care.

    Acts of citizenship – whether through protest (such as service delivery protest), art, or everyday actions – continue to play a crucial role in expanding the boundaries of who is considered a citizen and what rights citizens can claim.

    By understanding citizenship as something that is actively performed and claimed, rather than simply granted, society can better appreciate the ongoing struggles for equality and recognition.

    Acts of citizenship

    Emotions play a significant role in these citizenship actions, a concept known as “affective citizenship”. Expressions of fear, happiness, loneliness, anger, or grief can all be part of how people assert their rights and demand recognition. These emotional displays can be disruptive or more conventional, but they all focus on exclusions from citizenship.

    Some acts of citizenship involve a “politics of refusal” – rejecting unfair conditions or norms. This refusal can expose hidden issues within citizenship, such as specific forms of gendered violence or discrimination. By disrupting “business as usual”, these acts force society to confront uncomfortable truths.

    It’s important to note that acts of citizenship aren’t always large-scale or dramatic. They can also involve everyday actions that challenge norms or assert rights in smaller ways. What matters is that these acts transform the actors from passive subjects into active citizens claiming their rights.

    Examples include the #EndRapeCulture campaign of 2016, when women protested against pervasive sexual violence on university campuses. At the same time, transgender students also protested against marginalisation.

    Both groups of students used naked protests to show their refusal to be treated as though they were not citizens. Through their campaign, the students rejected behaviour and attitudes that normalise sexual violence on campuses.

    Women students disrupted public spaces by protesting topless or in their underwear, sometimes brandishing sjamboks (plastic whips). These actions expressed anger at university authorities’ failure to address sexual violence. The activists were refusing to be treated as though they were not citizens.

    By using their bodies in these acts of citizenship the protesters made visible the rage many South African women feel about sexual violence committed with seeming impunity. They highlighted how women’s bodies are vulnerable to violence due to neglect by authorities in implementing their own laws, such as the Sexual Offences Act and the Domestic Violence Act.




    Read more:
    Victory for women’s rights in Ghana as affirmative action law is passed – what must happen next


    For its part the Trans Collective, a group of transgender students at the University of Cape Town, used a provocative art intervention to highlight the erasure or the making invisible of transgender experiences within the broader student movement during the same 2016 period.

    They smeared red paint on photographs at an exhibit about student activism and used their naked, paint-covered bodies to block the entrance of the art gallery at the university to force visitors to confront the physical reality of how transgender rights are often “trampled” or ignored, even within progressive movements.

    Impact

    Acts of citizenship – whether through naked protests, art interventions, or other forms of activism – serve multiple purposes:

    • They make visible groups and issues that are overlooked or deliberately ignored.

    • They challenge conventional understandings of how citizens should behave or what citizenship looks like.

    • They create new spaces for political action and discourse.

    • They force society and authorities to confront uncomfortable truths about exclusion and violence.

    • They assert the agency of marginalised groups in defining and claiming their rights.

    Amanda Gouws receives funding from the NRF through her SARChI Chair in Gender Politics.

    ref. South African women face exclusion from society due to gender-based violence – how they’re fighting back – https://theconversation.com/south-african-women-face-exclusion-from-society-due-to-gender-based-violence-how-theyre-fighting-back-237493

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dutton’s nuclear plan would mean propping up coal for at least 12 more years – and we don’t know what it would cost

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

    Opposition leader Peter Dutton has revealed the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan relies on many of Australia’s coal-fired power stations running for at least another 12 years – far beyond the time frame officials expect the ageing facilities to last.

    The claim has set off a new round of speculation over the Coalition’s plans – the viability of which has already been widely questioned by energy analysts.

    Dutton offered up limited detail in a speech on Monday. He also revealed the plan relies on ramping up Australia’s gas production.

    It seems increasingly clear the Coalition’s nuclear policy would prolong Australia’s reliance on coal, at a time when the world is rapidly moving to cleaner sources of power.

    Coal: old and tired

    The Coalition wants to build nuclear reactors on the sites of closed coal plants. It says the first reactors could come online by the mid-2030s. However, independent analysis shows the earliest they could be built is the 2040s.

    Now it appears the Coalition’s plan involves relying on coal to provide electricity while nuclear reactors are being built. On Monday, Dutton suggested coal-fired electricity would be available into the 2030s and ‘40s.

    But this is an overly optimistic reading of coal’s trajectory. The Australian Energy Market Operator says 90% of coal-fired power in the National Electricity Market will close by 2035.

    All this suggests the Coalition plans to extend the life of existing coal plants. But this is likely to cost money. Australia’s coal-fired power stations are old and unreliable – that’s why their owners want to shut them down. To keep plants open means potentially operating them at a loss, while having to invest in repairs and upgrades.

    This is why coal plant owners sought, and received, payments from state governments to delay exits when the renewables rollout began falling behind schedule.

    So who would wear the cost of delaying coal’s retirement? It might be energy consumers if state governments decide to recoup the costs via electricity bills. Or it could be taxpayers, through higher taxes, reduced services or increased government borrowing. In other words, we will all have to pay, just from different parts of our personal budgets.

    Labor’s energy plan also relies on continued use of coal. Dutton pointed to moves by the New South Wales and Victorian governments to extend the life of coal assets in those states. For example, the NSW Labor government struck a deal with Origin to keep the Eraring coal station open for an extra two years, to 2027.

    However, this is a temporary measure to keep the electricity system reliable because the renewables build is behind schedule. It is not a defining feature of the plan.

    Eraring was given a two year extension.

    New transmission is essential under either plan

    Dutton claims Labor’s renewable energy transition will require a massive upgrade to transmission infrastructure. The transmission network largely involves high-voltage lines and towers, and transformers.

    He claims the Coalition can circumvent this cost by building nuclear power plants on seven sites of old coal-fired power stations, and thus use existing transmission infrastructure.

    Labor’s shift to renewable energy does require new transmission infrastructure, to get electricity from far-flung wind and solar farms to towns and cities. It’s also true that building nuclear power stations at the site of former coal plants would, in theory, make use of existing transmission lines, although the owners of some of these sites have firmly declined the opportunity.

    But even if the Coalition’s nuclear plan became a reality, new transmission infrastructure would be needed.

    Australia’s electricity demand is set to surge in coming decades as we move to electrify our homes, transport and heavy industry. This will require upgrades to transmission infrastructure, because it will have to carry more electricity. Many areas of the network are already at capacity.

    So in reality, both Labor’s and the Coalition’s policies are likely to require substantial spending on transmission.

    Gas is not an easy answer

    Both Labor and the Coalition acknowledge a big role for gas in their respective plans.

    Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says gas, along with storage, is needed to help back up to the grid, when solar and wind farms are not producing electricity.

    Dutton spoke of plans “to ramp up domestic gas production” in the short term, “to get power prices down and restore stability to our grid” – presumably until nuclear comes online.

    But the issue isn’t a lack of gas. It’s that the gas is in the wrong places. There’s a gas shortage because southern reserves are declining and all the gas production is in the north of the continent.

    An increased role for gas means getting someone to pay for new infrastructure, such as pipelines or LNG terminals. That will make for expensive gas, and expensive gas means expensive electricity.

    Many unanswered questions

    It’s now three months since the Coalition released its nuclear strategy. Detail was thin then – and Monday’s speech shed little light.

    Many unanswered questions remain – chief among them, costings of the nuclear plan, and how much of that will be born by government. CSIRO says a nuclear reactor would cost at least A$8.6 billion.

    We also don’t know how the Coalition would acquire the sites, or get around nuclear bans in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

    We still don’t know how the Coalition plans to keep the lights on in the coming decade, as coal exits.

    And crucially, we don’t know what it will cost households and businesses. It is unlikely to be cheap.

    Alison Reeve does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. Since 2008, Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporations, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporters is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    ref. Dutton’s nuclear plan would mean propping up coal for at least 12 more years – and we don’t know what it would cost – https://theconversation.com/duttons-nuclear-plan-would-mean-propping-up-coal-for-at-least-12-more-years-and-we-dont-know-what-it-would-cost-239720

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The design tricks keeping your kids hooked on games and apps – and 3 things you can do about it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Zomer, Associate Research Fellow at the Centre of the Digital Child, Deakin University

    This article is part of a series on the great internet letdown. Read the rest of the series.


    Ever found yourself unable to resist checking out a social media notification? Or sending a random picture just to keep a Snapchat “streak” going? Or simply getting stuck staring at YouTube because it auto-played yet another cute cat video?

    If so, you’re far from alone. And if we adults can’t resist such digital temptations, how can we expect children to do any better?

    Many digital environments are not designed with the best interest of users in mind – and this is especially true of games, apps and platforms commonly used by kids and teens.

    Designers use persuasive design techniques to make users spend more time on apps or platforms, so they can make more money selling ads. Below, we explain some of the most common design tricks used in popular games, social media and apps.

    Decision-making made easy 🔀

    Social media and streaming platforms strive to provide “seamless” user experiences. This makes it easy to stay engaged without needing to click anything very often, which also minimises any obvious opportunities where we might disengage.

    These seamless experiences include things such as auto-play when streaming videos, or “infinite scrolling” on social media. When algorithms present us with a steady flow of content, shaped by what we have liked or engaged with in the past, we must put in extra effort to stop watching. Unsurprisingly, we often decide to stay put.

    Rewards and dopamine hits 🧠

    Another way to keep children engaged is by using rewards, such as stars, diamonds, stickers, badges or other “points” in children’s apps. “Likes” on social media are no different.

    Rewards trigger the release of a chemical in our brains – dopamine – which not only makes us feel good but also leaves us wanting more.

    Rewards can be used to promote good behaviour, but not always. In some children’s apps, rewards are doubled if users watch advertisements.

    Loot boxes and ‘gambling’ 💰

    Variable rewards have been found to be especially effective. When you do not know when you will get a certain reward or desired item, you are more likely to keep going.

    In games, variable rewards can often be found (or purchased) in the form of “loot boxes”. Loot boxes might be chests, treasures, or stacks of cards containing a random reward. Because of the unpredictable reward, some researchers have described loot boxes as akin to gambling, even though the games do not always involve real money.

    Sometimes in-game currency (fake game money) can be bought with real money and used to “gamble” for rare characters and special items. This is very tempting for young people.

    In one of our (as yet unpublished) studies, a 12-year-old student admitted to spending several hundred dollars to obtain a desired character in the popular game Genshin Impact.

    The lure of streaks 🔥

    Another problematic way of using rewards in design is negative reinforcement. For instance, when you are at risk of a negative outcome (like losing something good), you feel compelled to continue a particular behaviour.

    “Streaks” work like this. If you do not do the same task for several days in a row, you will not get the extra rewards promised. Language learning app DuoLingo uses streaks, but so does Snapchat, a popular social media app. Research has shown a correlation between Snapchat streaks and problematic smartphone use among teens.

    Streaks can also make money for apps directly. If you miss a day and lose your streak, you can often pay to restore it.

    Loss of reputation 👎

    Reputation is important on social media. Think of the number of Facebook friends you have, or the number of likes your post receives.

    Sometimes designers build on our fear of losing our reputation. For instance, they can do this by adding a leaderboard that ranks users based on their score.

    While you may have heard of the use of leaderboards in games, they are also common in popular educational apps such as Kahoot! or Education Perfect. Leaderboards introduce an element of competition that many students enjoy.

    However, for some this competition has negative consequences – especially for those languishing low in the ranks.

    Similarly, Snapchat has a SnapScore where reputational loss is still at play. You do not want a lower score than your friends! This makes you want to keep using the app.

    Exploiting feelings of connection 🥰

    Another tool in the designers’ bag of tricks is capitalising on the emotional ties or connections users form with influencers or celebrities on social media, or favourite media characters (such as Elmo or Peppa pig) for younger children.

    While these connections can foster a sense of belonging, they can also be exploited for commercial gain, such as when influencers promote commercial products, or characters urge in-app purchases.

    What can parents do? 🤷

    Persuasive design isn’t inherently bad. Users want apps and games to be engaging, like we do for movies or TV shows. However, some design “tricks” simply serve commercial interests, often at the expense of users’ wellbeing.

    It is not all bleak, though. Here are a few steps parents can take to help kids stay on top of the apps:

    • have early and ongoing discussions with children about ideas such as the underlying commercial intent of what they are engaging with

    • model good digital choices of not giving in to persuasive design, such as by avoiding digital distractions yourself

    • use trustworthy resources to help in digital decision-making, such as Common Sense Media and Dark Pattern Games.

    For the moment, the responsibility for managing children’s interactions with the digital realm falls largely on individuals and families.

    Some governments are beginning to take action, but measures such as blanket age-based bans on social media or other platforms will only shield children temporarily. A better approach for governments and regulators would be to focus on safety by design: the idea that the safety and rights of users should be the starting point of any app, product or service, rather than an afterthought.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The design tricks keeping your kids hooked on games and apps – and 3 things you can do about it – https://theconversation.com/the-design-tricks-keeping-your-kids-hooked-on-games-and-apps-and-3-things-you-can-do-about-it-239493

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Where do we stash the equivalent of 110 Sydney harbour bridges? That’s the conundrum Australia faces as oil and gas rigs close

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darryn Snell, Associate professor, School of Management, RMIT University

    James Jones Jr, Shutterstock

    Oil and gas wells are dotted off Australia’s shores. They involve huge steel structures fixed firmly to the sea floor, and thousands of kilometres of pipelines.

    Most of Australia’s offshore oil and gas projects will be decommissioned in the next 30 years – some in the next decade. An estimated 5.7 million tonnes of material will need to be removed – the equivalent of 110 Sydney harbour bridges.

    Australia desperately needs the skills and equipment to conduct these complex decommissioning operations. The Albanese government says a high-capacity decommissioning facility is required by the early 2030s. At present, no such facilities exist.

    We hope the nation welcomes the opportunity to build a new multi-billion dollar demolition and recycling industry, with skilled jobs for workers. Rather than letting companies abandon structures for so-called “artificial reefs”.

    What would a decommissioning industry look like?

    Australia has two main offshore oil and gas producing areas: the North West Shelf in Western Australia and the Bass Strait off Gippsland, Victoria.

    WA and the Northern Territory have 35 platforms, 11 floating facilities and 6,076km of pipelines offshore. Victoria has 22 platforms and 2,089km of pipelines. Altogether, more than a thousand wells will need to be plugged and abandoned.



    Many of these facilities have already reached the end of their lives, or soon will. Less demand for fossil fuels in the future means we don’t need to refurbish or extend them. The only other option is to decommission them.

    Federal law requires the complete removal of offshore oil and gas infrastructure and plugging of wells, unless companies can come up with a better option.

    About 60% of the material requiring removal is steel, which could be recycled. A further 25% is concrete. The remainder includes plastics, hazardous metals and naturally occurring radioactive materials.

    But decommissioning is expensive, complex and time consuming, and the weak regulations are poorly enforced. Companies often present proposals that fail to meet community expectations.

    The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility argues “further regulation is needed to ensure greater transparency, disclosure, and public consultation on decommissioning”.

    The Albanese government has been developing a plan for a decommissioning industry in Australia. It would be worth A$60 billion over the next 30 to 50 years.

    The industry would reclaim the materials and transport them to dismantling yards, for safe sorting and recycling. It would create highly skilled jobs, many of which overlap with skills needed for building offshore wind farms. These include:

    • electricians and mechanical fitters
    • specialist engineering roles
    • various management and contract management roles
    • health, safety and environmental specialists
    • specialist offshore operators, including for cranes and drilling activities.

    Currently only a few countries such as Norway and Turkiye have such dedicated decommissioning industries. Some also accept materials from oil and gas fields further afield. Scottish oil and gas rigs, for example, were controversially transported to Turkiye for dismantling and recycling in 2022-23.

    Plenty of work to be done

    In Gippsland, there may be ways to decommission not just offshore oil and gas, but also coal-fired power stations in the Latrobe Valley, which are scheduled to close in coming years.

    Some 30,000 tonnes of steel and 65,000m³ of asbestos was removed when Hazelwood Power Station was demolished. A further 100,000 tonnes of steel and 100,000 tonnes of concrete was recycled.

    Much recycling work was done on site. This provided more than 1.1 million hours of work employment badly needed in a region that had lost one of its largest employers.

    The WA state government allocated $5 million to a local decommissioning industry in its 2022-23 budget. This funds the Centre of Decommissioning Australia’s research, including a study investigating how to develop a dismantling hub in WA.

    Unfortunately, Victoria has not shown similar interest. This is despite decommissioning work by Esso in Bass Strait raising ongoing community concerns. They relate to the marine environment, human safety – for fishing, beach and tourism activities – and the loss of other potential industry and job opportunities.

    Whether to remove oil and gas structures or leave them in place is hotly debated. Some people argue the structures should be left to serve as artificial reefs. Others say the material is dangerous and potentially toxic.

    Given the immense size and number of oil and gas platforms around the world, a lot of material could be left to decay in the oceans with unknown consequences.

    Gas in the Bass Strait is running out but what will happen to the offshore rigs? | 7.30.

    Challenges and opportunities

    Renewable energy promises to create jobs and revitalise many fossil-fuel dependent regions. Setting up a decommissioning industry in the oil and gas regions of WA and Victoria would provide further opportunities during the transition.

    Ideally, the decommissioning process would deliver positive social and environmental benefits, not just cost savings. But that requires managing decommissioning as part of policies aimed at supporting workers and communities to adjust to a low carbon economy.

    The Future Made in Australia policy, for instance, could consider including support for a decommissioning industry.

    Regulations for decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure must be strengthened. Environmental groups and unions are increasingly campaigning for these changes. Australia’s oil and gas companies are powerful and will likely resist further regulation.

    Abandoning oil and gas infrastructure on the ocean floor would result in lost opportunities for regions, communities and workers. It would also set a precedent for the dumping of yet more industrial waste into the ocean.

    We must get decommissioning right. Otherwise, it may prove another environmental harm imposed on the planet by the oil and gas industry.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Where do we stash the equivalent of 110 Sydney harbour bridges? That’s the conundrum Australia faces as oil and gas rigs close – https://theconversation.com/where-do-we-stash-the-equivalent-of-110-sydney-harbour-bridges-thats-the-conundrum-australia-faces-as-oil-and-gas-rigs-close-235867

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Humanity needs more rare earth elements. Extinct volcanoes could be a rich new source

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Anenburg, Research Fellow in Earth Sciences, Australian National University

    Phawat/Shutterstock

    Extinct volcanoes are hard to study – we never see them erupt. Using a unique experimental technique, we were able to recreate a certain type of extinct volcano in a lab, learning more about the magma these volcanoes produce.

    We found that some rare magma types are surprisingly efficient at concentrating rare earth elements. This is a group of metals with crucial applications in several high-tech industries, such as magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

    Demand for rare earths is soaring as society moves away from fossil fuels and electrifies energy production and transport. Despite the name, rare earths aren’t particularly rare. The biggest challenge is finding rocks in which these metals are concentrated enough to be economically viable to extract.

    Our new research, published in the journal Geochemical Perspectives Letters, shows certain extinct volcanoes are a great place to look.

    Iron-rich magma in extinct volcanoes

    There is an enigmatic type of magma that contains unusually large amounts of iron. It is so rare, no eruptions featuring this type of magma have happened in recorded history.

    Instead, it is only known from extinct volcanoes that were active many millions of years ago.

    The most famous example of such a volcano is El Laco in Chile. Another notable example is Kiruna in Sweden, mined for iron ore for many decades. Last year, its operating company LKAB announced Kiruna as the largest rare earths resource in Europe.

    The discovery at Kiruna made us (and many others) wonder why there would be a rare earth resource at a volcanic iron mine. We already know of many other rock types containing rare earths, and none of them are like Kiruna and other extinct iron-rich volcanoes.

    Was this just a geological serendipity, or is there something inherent to iron-rich magmas that make them rare-earth rich, too? After all, many of those iron-rich extinct volcanoes are known, but no one ever bothered to check whether they have a rare earth resource in them.

    Additionally, iron-rich rocks are often easy to find because of their strong magnetic signal, despite their rarity. Should they be added to the target list of rare earth explorers?

    Recreating volcanism in a bottle

    To test this hypothesis, we used a machine called a piston cylinder. We put synthetic material akin to volcanic rocks and magmas into small capsules or “bottles” made of noble metals such as platinum. We then pressurised them to depths equivalent to 15 kilometres deep in Earth’s crust and heated them up to 1,100°C, melting them into a liquid.

    At these extreme conditions, we found the iron-rich magma exists as bubbles inside a more common magma type known from virtually all modern active volcanoes. The iron-rich magma absorbs rare earths from the surrounding liquid.

    These iron-rich bubbles will have a different density and viscosity, and will separate from their iron-poor environment, similar to how water and oil mixed together will eventually separate into distinct layers.

    Iron-rich magmas absorb the rare earths so efficiently, their rare earth contents are almost 200 times greater than the regular magmas around them.

    This means the discovery at Kiruna wasn’t an accident. It’s something we can expect from most, if not all, iron-rich volcanoes.

    An experimental platinum capsule (4 mm in length) containing round bubbles of iron-rich and iron-poor magma. The capsule also contains abundant iron oxide crystals in light grey and blue, similar to the material making the iron ore in active mines.
    Shengchao Yan

    Why do we need more rare earth deposits?

    Production of rare earth elements is concentrated in just a handful of countries – mostly China, along with the United States, Myanmar and Australia.

    Rare earths are therefore classified as “critical minerals”: they have important uses, but suffer from a supply chain risk due to geopolitical factors.

    As demand for rare earths has surged, this has led to substantial investment in research and exploration for additional deposits. The more deposits are known, the better industry can pick deposits that will yield rare earths at the lowest financial, environmental and societal cost.

    Extinct iron-rich volcanoes are often mined for iron ore. Our results indicate existing mines at such locations can potentially be modified to produce rare earths as well.

    This would be a positive outcome – an existing mining operation can gain additional value. In some cases, mine waste can be reprocessed to extract these critical metals. This would mean new mines for rare earth elements may not even be required, preventing unnecessary disruption of natural environments.

    Michael Anenburg receives funding from the Australian Research Council for an Industry Fellowship co-funded by BHP Olympic Dam.

    ref. Humanity needs more rare earth elements. Extinct volcanoes could be a rich new source – https://theconversation.com/humanity-needs-more-rare-earth-elements-extinct-volcanoes-could-be-a-rich-new-source-239410

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  • MIL-Evening Report: AI is fuelling a deepfake porn crisis in South Korea. What’s behind it – and how can it be fixed?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sungshin (Luna) Bae, PhD student, Gender Equality Policy Special Public Officer at the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office in South Korea, Monash University

    It’s difficult to talk about artificial intelligence without talking about deepfake porn – a harmful AI byproduct that has been used to target everyone from Taylor Swift to Australian school girls.

    But a recent report from startup Security Heroes found that out of 95,820 deepfake porn videos analysed from different sources, 53% featured South Korean singers and actresses – suggesting this group is disproportionately targeted.

    So, what’s behind South Korea’s deepfake problem? And what can be done about it?

    Teenagers and minors among victims

    Deepfakes are digitally manipulated photos, video or audio files that convincingly depict someone saying or doing things they never did. Among South Korean teenagers, creating deepfakes has become so common that some even view it as a prank. And they don’t just target celebrities.

    On Telegram, group chats have been made for the specific purpose of engaging in image-based sexual abuse of women, including middle-school and high-school students, teachers and family members. Women who have their pictures on social media platforms such as KakaoTalk, Instagram and Facebook are also frequently targeted.

    The perpetrators use AI bots to generate the fake imagery, which is then sold and/or indiscriminately disseminated, along with victims’ social media accounts, phone numbers and KakaoTalk usernames. One Telegram group attracted some 220,000 members, according to a Guardian report.

    A lack of awareness

    Despite gender-based violence causing significant harm to victims in South Korea, there remains a lack of awareness on the issue.

    South Korea has experienced rapid technological growth in recent decades. It ranks first in the world in smartphone ownership and is cited as having the highest internet connectivity. Many jobs, including those in restaurants, manufacturing and public transport, are being rapidly replaced by robots and AI.

    But as Human Rights Watch points out, the country’s progress in gender equality and other human rights measures has not kept pace with digital advancement. And research has shown that technological progress can actually exacerbate issued of gender-based violence.

    Since 2019, digital sex crimes against children and adolescents in South Korea have been a huge issue – particularly due to the “Nth Room” case. This case involved hundreds of young victims (many of whom were minors) and around 260,000 participants engaged in sharing exploitative and coercive intimate content.

    The case triggered widespread outrage and calls for stronger protection. It even led to the establishment of stronger conditions in the Act on Special Cases Concerning the Punishment of Sexual Crimes 2020. But despite this, the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office said only 28% of the total 17,495 digital sex offenders caught in 2021 were indicted — highlighting the ongoing challenges in effectively addressing digital sex crimes.

    In 2020, the Ministry of Justice’s Digital Sexual Crimes Task Force proposed about 60 legal provisions, which have still not been accepted. The team was disbanded shortly after the inauguration of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government in 2022.

    During the 2022 presidential race, Yoon said “there is no structural gender discrimination” in South Korea and pledged to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, the main ministry responsible for preventing gender-based violence. This post has remained vacant since February of this year.

    Can technology also be the solution?

    But AI isn’t always harmful – and South Korea provides proof of this too. In 2022, a digital sex crime support centre run by the Seoul metropolitan government developed a tool that can automatically track, monitor and delete deepfake images and videos around the clock.

    The technology – which won the 2024 UN Public Administration Prize – has helped reduce the time taken to find deepfakes from an average of two hours to three minutes. But while such attempts can help reduce further harm from deepfakes, they are unlikely to be an exhaustive solutions, as effects on victims can be persistent.

    For meaningful change, the government needs to hold service providers such as social media platforms and messaging apps accountable for ensuring user safety.

    Unified efforts

    On August 30, the South Korean government announced plans to push for legislation to criminalise the possession, purchase and viewing of deepfakes in South Korea.

    However, investigations and trials may continue to fall short until deepfakes in South Korea are recognised as a harmful form of gender-based violence. A multifaceted approach will be needed to address the deepfake problem, including stronger laws, reform and education.

    South Korean authorities must also help to enhance public awareness of gender-based violence, and focus not only on supporting victims, but on developing proactive policies and educational programs to prevent violence in the first place.

    Sungshin (Luna) Bae does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. AI is fuelling a deepfake porn crisis in South Korea. What’s behind it – and how can it be fixed? – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-fuelling-a-deepfake-porn-crisis-in-south-korea-whats-behind-it-and-how-can-it-be-fixed-238217

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Why do people breach their bail? Our research shows it’s not because they’re committing more crimes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Gately, Associate Professor, Edith Cowan University

    Shutterstock

    In Australia and most countries, everyone is innocent until proven guilty. Because of this, keeping someone in detention before trial comes with serious legal, practical and human-rights consequences, not just for the person accused but also for their family and for society.

    That’s why most people accused of a crime are usually released on bail.

    Bail is essentially a written promise where a person is released, on the agreement they return to court on a set date. It can also be granted to those who have been found or pleaded guilty while they wait for sentencing.

    Bail allows the accused to keep their job, maintain their home, and support their family, while eliminating the costs of imprisonment.

    However, bail comes with conditions that the person must follow, including curfews, regular check-ins, restrictions on whom they can talk to or where they can go, drug or alcohol testing, and staying at a specific address.

    These conditions may seem easy to understand and follow, but breaches of orders were the third most common offence in Australian courts in 2022 and 2023. They made up 10% of adult court appearances, using valuable time and resources.

    There’s a widespread belief that people on bail who breach their conditions commit more crimes – sometimes violent ones – that put others at risk and threaten public safety. This has fuelled demands for stricter bail laws or to stop granting bail altogether.

    Many also think that when someone breaches their bail conditions, it’s because they’re deliberately defying or ignoring the rules. With this in mind, we wanted to look deeper.

    We spoke to 230 police detainees about what led to their bail breaches. The results were surprising: very few (just 11%) breached by committing new offences.

    Instead, most explained their breaches happened because of things beyond their control.

    Homelessness

    A fixed residential address is a fundamental condition for getting bail.

    However, many of our participants shared that becoming homeless or returning to homelessness was common for them. Some said they left the address they provided because of family tensions:

    I’m meant to stay at my sister’s house under my bail conditions, it’s for my curfew […] she kicked me out because we had an argument. Now I’ve breached my conditions and have nowhere to go.

    It’s well known that chronic homelessness makes it tough to comply with bail conditions, and we found the same. A detainee told us:

    It was an honest mistake and a mix-up of the days.

    Another said:

    I was homeless at the time I was meant to go to court and dealing with a lot.

    A third person told us:

    I’m homeless and I’ve got bigger issues than going to court. I’m living in a tent in the park at the moment with no job.

    The mental stress meant people focused on meeting basic needs such as food and shelter, which took priority over following bail conditions.

    Family responsibilities

    Participants also shared their personal responsibilities of caring for sick children, parents or other dependants. This often prevented them from attending court or reporting. One person told us:

    I’m my nan’s carer […] I needed to look after her and my brother wasn’t there. I couldn’t go to court or make it. I’m the one who washes her and does everything for her […]

    Family commitments clashing with reporting requirements led to feelings that the system was stacked against them and they had few options but to breach.

    Work commitments

    Employment often interfered with reporting on time and attending court.

    I have to report Monday, Wednesday and Friday but I’m a truck driver. I have no problems with coming in to report, but I couldn’t make it because I was working. When I went in to report, they arrested me […]

    Keeping a job is crucial for financial and housing stability. Having a stable job also deepens community connections to reduce the chances of getting involved in criminal activity.

    Procedural barriers

    When these kinds of everyday issues derailed compliance, many said they had tried to let the court, police or their lawyer know, either before or right after they missed reporting in or a court date but were faced with an inflexible system.

    For some, even when they did manage to get through, they were told that by not reporting or attending court they had already breached their bail and a warrant would be issued for their arrest. A study participant told us:

    I told them (the police) that I’d been kicked out (of the nominated accommodation) and wasn’t there and they locked me up here. I’ve got an extra charge now because I breached bail and probably won’t get let back out tomorrow. It wasn’t in my control. I was meant to be doing my medical to start work on the mines too tomorrow, so I won’t be working there now.

    We recommend considering of the complexities of bailees’ lives when setting bail. More flexible reporting conditions for when “life happens” will reduce charge pile ups and pressures on the criminal justice.

    Natalie Gately received funding from Western Australian Office of Crime Statistics and Research for this project.

    Suzanne Rock received funding from Western Australian Office of Crime Statistics and Research for this project.

    ref. Why do people breach their bail? Our research shows it’s not because they’re committing more crimes – https://theconversation.com/why-do-people-breach-their-bail-our-research-shows-its-not-because-theyre-committing-more-crimes-239198

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  • MIL-OSI Global: Ontario’s closure of youth detention facilities has not resulted in more support for young people

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jessica Evans, Assistant Professor, Criminology, Toronto Metropolitan University

    The closure of youth detention centres is a positive development. However, without adequate investment in community organizations that serve youth, it is a move set up to fail.
    (Shutterstock)

    The Ontario government said it would save $40 million per year by closing 26 youth detention centres in 2021, with promises to use those savings to support community services for youth.

    Framed as a cost-savings strategy aligned with the objectives of the Youth Criminal Justice Act, the money saved through the closures would be reinvested in community-based services and alternatives to youth detention.

    Since these closures, however, there has been no government reporting on where or when this $40 million will be reinvested. Meanwhile, organizations that serve youth report ongoing resource constraints.

    The closure of youth detention centres is a positive development. However, without adequate investment in community organizations that serve youth, it is a move set up to fail.




    Read more:
    Ontario closes half of its youth detention centres, leaving some young people in limbo


    Youth detention in Ontario

    Between 2018 and 2022, youth imprisonment numbers fell by around 50 per cent in Ontario. That continued a longer trend which has seen youth detention numbers fall by over 85 per cent over a 25-year period from 1997 to 2022. There has also been a recent uptick in youth imprisonment numbers, increasing from 9,654 in 2021-22 to 10,960 in 2022-23.

    Currently, Ontario’s youth prisons are at overcapacity, and the Sudbury youth detention centre is set to close next year.

    Several of the 26 youth detention centres that were closed were situated in northern Ontario. The Ontario Ombudsman, Nishnawbe Aski Nation and Grand Council Treaty #3 have said the abrupt closures would disproportionately impact Indigenous youth in detention.

    A CBC News report on overcrowding in Ontario’s youth detention centres.

    Community organizations overwhelmed

    We have examined the annual reports for 2019-24 from 46 organizations serving youth in the justice system from Kenora, Thunder Bay and Kingston where a significant number of the youth detention closures occurred.

    While many community organizations believe closing detention centres is a good long-term decision, there are many immediate concerns. We found consistent reporting of limited funding to support all youth in need.

    Organizations are impacted by record-high numbers of youth seeking access to services, with some organizations seeing a significant increase in the number of youth accessing their services — especially mental health programs. This has resulted in some organizations increasing the hours and days they are open to accommodate as many youth as possible, while also balancing staff burnout.

    Organizations did not report any substantial increase in funds from the government due to the closure of youth detention centres. Some noted challenges around fundraising, as many events were put on hold during the pandemic. This has resulted in organizations being unable to hire new staff or increase their services. In some cases this has also led to staff layoffs.

    Investing in community

    Deinstitutionalization refers to the period when institutions that housed or confined people with mental, cognitive, intellectual and physical disabilities were shut down, and people were released to live in communities.

    However, this process is often not met with sufficient funding for social supports. Inevitably, more people struggling with mental health end up in hospital emergency departments and in conflict with the law. This shift in responsibility has been referred to as transinstitutionalization.

    We have written about these trends in Ontario following the 2021 youth detention centre closures. Many of the young people in these centres struggle with mental health issues, neurodivergence and addictions.

    Significant investments in community supports are needed. Otherwise, many youth will continue to be funneled into other institutions, including hospitals and adult prisons.

    Since 2009, Ontario has seen a significant increase in hospital emergency room visits for mental health or substance-related concerns, especially among 14–21 year olds. Mental illness and drug dependence are some of the most prevailing health problems for criminalized Canadians. In a study of 1,770 young people in Québec, researchers found those struggling with alcohol or drugs and familial problems are more likely to face re-imprisonment.

    The Brookside Youth Justice Centre in Cobourg, Ont., was among the facilities the provincial government closed in March 2021.
    (Infrastructure Ontario)

    Helping youth in detention

    In 2023, a justice centre was opened in Kenora, and in 2024, funding was announced for child and youth mental health in Ontario. Yet, more support is needed. In many northern, rural and remote communities, services for children and youth with intensive needs simply do not exist.

    Youth face a number of additional barriers accessing support and treatment. These include long wait lists, overemphasis on illness-based and medical models, fragmented services, lack of developmentally and culturally appropriate services, and support that fails to consider the preferences and perspectives of youth and families.

    Strains on youth community supports are also felt in other provinces. Researchers interviewed youth justice community workers in Alberta who reported inadequate funding with impacts on resources for youth, including psychological support and the ability for staff to give enough attention and time to youth. Conditions also lead to staff burnout and exit from the sector altogether.

    The move to shift youth in the justice system away from confinement and towards community is a positive one. However, without investment in community-based service providers to support youth being transitioned out of custodial settings, it is unlikely that youth will thrive.

    Such failures are likely to increase acute mental health crises and demands on ambulatory care within general medicine and psychiatric hospitals. These gaps are also likely to increase the number of youth who will come into conflict with the criminal legal system as adults.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Ontario’s closure of youth detention facilities has not resulted in more support for young people – https://theconversation.com/ontarios-closure-of-youth-detention-facilities-has-not-resulted-in-more-support-for-young-people-238748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Reproductive coercion is a form of gender-based violence. It’s likely more common than we realise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Desireé LaGrappe, PhD Candidate & Coordinator, Reducing Gender-based Violence Network | NHMRC and Fulbright grantee, La Trobe University

    Peopleimages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    From contraception access to safe abortion, there is growing awareness about reproductive health and rights.

    Around the world, reproductive rights and justice are issues of political debate and on the electoral ballot. But for some, the greatest threat to their reproductive autonomy is being wielded by those closest to them.

    Last week, preliminary findings were presented from the Australian Study of Health and Relationships on the prevalence of reproductive coercion and abuse nationally. This form of gender-based violence is where someone seeks to control another person’s reproductive choices using physical, sexual, and/or emotional violence or threats. The study included 4,540 participants aged 16–69 years.

    Early analysis showed one in 20 reported experiencing controlling behaviours over contraception, pregnancy and abortion.

    So what makes these controlling behaviours different from other forms of abuse? And how can we find out more?

    What is it?

    Reproductive coercion and abuse is mostly perpetrated against women, girls and LGBTQIA+ people, usually by a partner, parent or in-law.

    Someone might do this by trying to coerce or force the other person to become pregnant or have an abortion. This can look like:

    • relentlessly pressuring the person to have a baby when they don’t want to

    • refusing to let them use birth control, or withholding or destroying it

    • harassing or stalking them to find out if they had an abortion.

    The recent rapid review for government on approaches to prevent gender-based violence does not mention the words “reproductive coercion and abuse”. But it has been clearly identified in several domestic and family violence-related deaths in Australia.

    These controlling behaviours intersect with domestic, family and sexual violence. However, reproductive coercion is unique, because it weaponises someone’s reproductive capacity in order to control them.

    Partners can be coerced into going through with a pregnancy against their wishes.
    Tapao/Shutterstock

    What we don’t know

    The Australian Study of Health and Relationships is only undertaken every ten years and the latest survey is the first to estimate how common controlling another person’s reproductive rights might be on a national scale. The results of the survey provide essential data for sexual and reproductive health policies and programs across Australia.

    However, there are no data for comparison yet to look for trends over time.

    The reported one-in-20 prevalence is likely an underestimation. This is because we know people tend to under-report abuse and might not recognise or process what’s happening to them at the time, a typical trauma response.

    And subtle emotional manipulation or pressure can be difficult to capture in broad population surveys.

    Previous studies have conflated reproductive coercion and abuse with sexual violence or have failed to ask about abortion or the different types of relationships where this abuse occurs.

    Any measure should be developed with people with lived experience and designed so communities like First Nations Australians, LGBTQIA+ people, people living with disability, migrants and refugees, and young people are properly represented. Too often they are not included in co-design processes or their experiences are made invisible by data gaps.

    Last month, the report into Missing and murdered First Nations women and children revealed that Closing the Gap data on violence against women and children is out of date and the actual number of Indigenous women and children murdered or disappeared is unknown.

    Last year’s Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability similarly drew attention to the increased prevalence of abuse suffered by women with disability and the lack of proper consultation to involve them in solutions.

    Our La Trobe and University of Melbourne team is developing a new rigorous measure to better capture the complex behaviours missed by other measures. It’s intended to compare reproductive coercion and abuse prevalence across different countries and strengthen how we measure the effect of future interventions.

    Once developed, testing will start in maternal and child health settings. This is because the risk of abuse is heightened around childbirth and nurses and midwives are well positioned to safely identify and support patients.

    Additional steps will be needed to determine what questions are best for health-care workers to ask to identify at-risk patients and respond – without putting them in more danger.

    Coercion is happening within a global context – a fight for reproductive rights.
    Benjamin Clapp/Shutterstock

    Where to from here? And where to get help

    Reproductive coercion and abuse needs to have a larger focus in the current national discussion on gender-based violence and prevention.

    A 2023 Senate inquiry into universal access to reproductive health care called for more research into reproductive coercion and abuse to inform guidelines and training for health-care workers. This will require better measurement of the full extent and patterns of the problem. We hope policy makers appropriately resource these areas critical to ending gender-based violence.

    People experiencing reproductive coercion and abuse can contact 1800 My Options (VIC), Children by Choice (QLD) or 1800 Respect (National) for professional help.

    Desireé LaGrappe is a PhD candidate of La Trobe University and the SPHERE CRE. She is employed casually by La Trobe and receives funding for this research from the NHMRC and previously from the US Dept. of State Bureau of Education and Cultural Affairs. She is affiliated with the SPHERE Coalition, Family Planning Australia, the Nursing Network on Violence Against Women International, Sigma, and the Australian Fulbright Alumni Association.

    Angela Taft received funding from NHMRC as a CI on the SPHERE Centre for Research Excellence (CRE) on Sexual and Reproductive Health and the Safer Families CRE. She is affiliated with the SPHERE Coalition and PHAA.

    Kristina Edvardsson receives funding from the NHMRC as an investigator on the SPHERE CRE.

    Laura Tarzia receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and is an investigator on the SPHERE CRE. She is collaborating with the ASHR team on their research into reproductive coercion and abuse. She is affiliated with the Safer Families Centre and the Royal Women’s Hospital.

    Leesa Hooker receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Department of Social Services. She is affiliated with the SPHERE CRE and the Safer Families Centre.

    ref. Reproductive coercion is a form of gender-based violence. It’s likely more common than we realise – https://theconversation.com/reproductive-coercion-is-a-form-of-gender-based-violence-its-likely-more-common-than-we-realise-239606

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz