Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand

    A new round of angry exchanges has broken out between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

    On September 1, Cairo wrote to the UN security council to protest against Ethiopia’s continued filling of Africa’s second largest reservoir and bringing two more power generating turbines into operation. Egypt sees any new infrastructure development on the Nile as a potential threat, since the river is the source of over 98% of the country’s water.

    Egypt calls this a violation of international law and Ethiopia’s obligations to “prevent significant harm”. Ethiopia’s policies, it says,

    could result in an existential threat to Egypt … and would consequently jeopardise regional and international peace and security.

    Ethiopia has told Egypt to “abandon its aggressive approach” towards the dam. Ethiopia says that it must allow the Blue Nile’s water to flow through the dam’s turbines and on to Egypt to generate the hydropower for which it has been built, thus guaranteeing the overall flow to Egypt.

    I have tracked the Nile disputes since the 1970s, first as a development journalist, then as a civil engineer and senior public servant. More recently, my research on water and regional integration for regional development agencies has provided further insights. My 2021 study considered the lessons to be learnt for today’s water challenges from centuries of the use and management of Nile waters.




    Read more:
    Innovations on the Nile over millennia offer lessons in engineering sustainable futures


    Ongoing tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over control of the Nile River has a long history. Therefore, in one sense, the row between Egypt and Ethiopia is nothing new.

    The countries went to war as far back as 1874, even as they both were also battling European colonialism. Ethiopia won the war of 1874 and, 20 years later, beat back Italy’s attempt to colonise it, at the battle of Adwa.

    However, Egypt gained long term advantage from treaties negotiated by the British, which gave Cairo almost total control over the Nile. Egypt is still asserting the rights and privileges conferred by those colonial era treaties even though they are being challenged by other Nile countries. In my view, this is because Egyptians are still trapped by their past fears. As Norwegian professor Torje Tvedt has explained, these fears were deliberately entrenched by past colonial authorities.

    With these perspectives, my view is that the current controversy over the Ethiopian dam still reflects historical conflicts rather than a careful analysis of present challenges.

    Now 90% complete, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has begun to generate electricity. A series of good rainy seasons have allowed the reservoir to start filling rapidly without affecting Egypt’s water availability.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam offers not just cheap green electricity for Ethiopia and the sub-region as well as reliable irrigation supplies and flood control for Sudan. Once filled, its storage could offer supply security and increase the amount of water available for Egypt as well.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    What, then, are the issues that have prompted Egypt’s recent protests and what are the possible solutions to the problems raised?

    The immediate technical challenge is to continue filling the dam without disrupting flows to Sudan and Egypt. The filling process might have to be interrupted if there is a regional drought. So recent developments, notably the greater focus on the rate at which the dam will be filled rather than the legality of its construction, suggest that there is a shift in positions which neither side is yet willing to acknowledge publicly.

    This shift will be supported when other future-focused issues are raised. For instance, there must be negotiations about the supply of electricity to support Sudan’s irrigation expansion, although this is on hold due to the war in Sudan. In the longer term, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia could cooperate to use the GERD’s storage to help Egypt to manage its Aswan High Dam more efficiently. Aswan currently suffers very high evaporation losses, which could be reduced if its reservoir levels were better controlled. The GERD could help to do this.

    Unfortunately, the history of colonial Britain repeatedly threatening to cut Egypt’s Nile water supplies has been deeply imprinted in Egyptian public consciousness. It is understandable that Egyptians still fear a similar threat from Ethiopia. The responsibility now falls on Ethiopia to show good faith in its operation of the dam and to work with Egypt to change the combative discourse.

    Potential for cooperation

    Egypt’s repeated complaints have alerted Ethiopia and international organisations of the need to act carefully. If there is another regional drought, Ethiopia will need to slow the rate at which it completes filling its dam. Informal liaison structures are monitoring the situation and such a response would help to build a more constructive engagement with Egypt.

    Water is a patient teacher. Every season provides an opportunity for those who live with its natural cycles to understand it better. The hope is that, if the three countries experience the benefits of some seasons of the dam’s operation, the natural cycle will reveal the potential for cooperation and mitigate the conflict.




    Read more:
    Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found


    When peace returns to Sudan, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will enable a vast expansion of irrigation to develop its role as a regional breadbasket. The dam will also help to manage Nile floods which regularly cause death and destruction, even to Sudan’s capital, Khartoum.

    Efforts to promote cooperation between the East African countries that share the White Nile have been relatively successful. However, such cooperation on the Blue Nile will need much greater trust between the parties. To achieve this trust, the countries and their people will have to overcome centuries of cultural and political preconceptions. This will require much patient work and interaction, which is not easy in the current climate.

    Mike Muller has received funding from the African Development Bank and South Africa’s Water Research Comission for work on regional cooperation in water resource management. He has been a member of the Global Water Partnership’s Technical Committee, chaired the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Water and been funded by the World Bank’s Cooperation in International Waters (CIWA) programme for contributions to the Nile Basin Initiative. He was also funded by UNESCO to attend a conference in Khartoum, organised with Sudan’s Ministry of Water Resources Irrigation and Electricity, on integrated and sustainable water management.

    ref. Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region – https://theconversation.com/egypts-fears-about-ethiopias-mega-dam-havent-come-to-pass-moving-on-from-historical-concerns-would-benefit-the-whole-region-239418

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Wray Vamplew, Emeritus Professor of Sport, University of Stirling

    In the trailer for Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated sequel to Gladiator (2000), a new gladiator (played by Paul Mescal) goes to battle in “the greatest temple Rome ever built – the Colosseum”.

    He comes up against naval warfare, a cutthroat promoter (Denzel Washington) and a stampeding rhino. But how much of this really took place in Roman times? As always with films based in the past, pedantic historians will jump in to assess the degree of cinematic licence and historical misinterpretation. So it is with the forthcoming Gladiator II.

    The trailer for Gladiator II.

    Did gladiators fight rhinos?

    One thing that certainly did not happen was a warrior mounted on a rhinoceros (even a non-computer-generated one) charging at a group of gladiators. However, there is a record of a rhino at the inauguration of the Colosseum in 80BC. It didn’t fight men, but a bull, bear, buffalo, bison, lion and two steers. The other rare mentions of rhinos in Rome are of those in menageries, to be admired as exotic creatures.

    This Roman interest in foreign, wild animals was the basis of the initial beast spectacles which began in 275BC with an exhibition of captured war elephants. Such non-violent displays of animals continued into the imperial era, but in 186BC the first staged animal hunt (venatio), featuring both lions and leopards, took place and by 169BC beast hunts had become an official part of republican state festivals.

    Later, under the emperors, collecting and transporting beasts, especially unusual and foreign ones, to be displayed – but more often killed – demonstrated imperial power, territorial control and the vastness of the empire. Thousands of animals were brought from Africa and elsewhere to Roman arenas to be slaughtered for entertainment and the meat from the dead animals was given away to the spectators (it was easier than trying to dispose of the many carcasses).

    A 5th-century mosaic showing two gladiators fighting a tiger.
    Great Palace of Constantinople, CC BY

    Those who fought the beasts were not gladiators but specially trained hunters (venatores) armed with spears. The venatio could also feature fights between animals, as with the Colosseum rhinoceros, but most often the contest consisted of bulls against an elephant or bear. Animal hunts outlasted gladiatorial combats as a source of spectator entertainment, but as both the size of the empire and imperial funds diminished, greater reliance was placed on domestically reared “wild” animals.

    Were there sea battles in the Colosseum?

    More credence in historical terms can be given to the film’s staged sea battle (naumachia) in the flooded Colosseum. Such spectacles were expensive to stage and were reserved for special occasions.

    The first one recorded was for Emperor Augustus in 2BC. Held on an artificial lake, it featured 30 large ships carrying some 3,000 marines plus an unspecified number of rowers. Participants in a naumachia, typically either convicted criminals or prisoners of war, were expected to kill each other or drown, though, the demonstration of fighting ability and courage could gain them a pardon.

    The Naumachia by Ulpiano Checa (1894) imagines naval warfare in the Coliseum.
    Museo Ulpiano Checa

    The grandest sea battle was provided by Emperor Claudius on Lake Fucinus, a spectacle involving 100 ships and some 19,000 marines and oarsmen. It was at this event that the fighting men reportedly said “hail, emperor, we who are about to die salute you”, mistakenly assigned to gladiators in so many films, including the first Gladiator.

    Literary sources (not always to be trusted in antiquity as they were often written well after alleged events) claim that the Colosseum was flooded for a sea battle at its inauguration. After some debate, historians now accept that the engineering mechanisms were in place so that, at least in its early days, the Colosseum could have accommodated a naumachia.

    Did a thumbs down really mean death for a gladiator?

    Gladiator II also showcases the misconstrued sporting legacy of the thumbs up signal to spare a defeated gladiator who requested mercy or the converse of a thumbs down from those who wished him to die.

    The arena was a large, noisy place and hand signals were often used as a means of communication. Indeed, rather than verbally requesting mercy, the defeated warrior himself would raise the index finger of his right hand, or even the hand itself, both of which were recognised pleas for clemency.

    Pollice Verso (Thumbs Down) by Jean-Léon Gérôme, (1872).
    Phoenix Art Museum, CC BY

    When the crowd opted for the death of a fighter they indicated this by means of pollice verso, literally a turned thumb, with no direction specified. When the hand was waved the sign indicated that the gladiator’s throat should be cut by his conqueror. Those who wished to save the vanquished, but courageous, fighter gave the sign pollice compresso, a compressed thumb but one often hidden from sight so as not to cause visual confusion.

    Gladiators were valuable assets. Promoters, who had paid a hiring fee (typically 10-20% of their value) for them to fight, were reluctant to incur the full asset value demanded as compensation should they die. Especially when, at the crowd’s insistence, they could have a choice in the matter.

    In many instances the event had been promoted to curry favour with the spectators so to go against their wishes would be counterproductive. However, whether the ultimate decision-maker gave a thumbs up or thumbs down is debatable. The idea that this occurred seems to have developed around 1872 with the popularity of a painting by French artist, Jean-Léon Gérôme. In it he depicts vestal virgins giving the dreaded sign. Although titled Pollice Verso, it became conventionally referred to as “the thumbs down painting”.



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    Wray Vamplew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II – https://theconversation.com/did-romans-really-fight-rhinos-sports-historian-explains-the-truth-behind-the-battle-scenes-in-ridley-scotts-gladiator-ii-235255

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Graeme Mack, Visiting Assistant Professor of History, University of Richmond

    Theodore Roosevelt speaks during the Progressive campaign of 1912. AP Photo

    This year’s presidential election has a former president, Donald Trump, running for a nonconsecutive term. It’s the fifth time in U.S. history that’s happened.

    Historically, a former president running for a nonconsecutive term has prompted voters to change their party allegiances.

    In 1848, Martin Van Buren, a former Democratic president, ran as a candidate for the newly formed Free Soil Party and attracted many Northern Democrats who had grown disillusioned with their party’s pro-slavery stance. The Free Soil Party outperformed Democrats in three Northern states and enabled the other major party, the Whigs, to win the presidency.

    And in 1856, former Whig President Millard Fillmore headed the newly formed American Party, otherwise known as the Know-Nothing party. When faced with a choice between two candidates, Fillmore and Democrat James Buchanan, who both seemed deeply complicit with slavery’s expansion, many Northerners voted for the new antislavery Republican Party.

    Fillmore’s candidacy in 1856 made a Republican sweep of the North virtually impossible, ensuring victory for Buchanan, who only won 45% of the popular vote.

    Theodore Roosevelt’s run in 1912 also saw dramatic changes in voter behavior. With the former president on the ballot, millions of voters cast ballots for the other major party or a brand new party.

    By this time, Roosevelt had become one of the most famous men in the world. Reformers praised his ability to attract attention and build support for progressive causes.

    These characteristics repulsed conservative Republicans and traditional Democrats who feared Roosevelt’s return to power.

    After failing to secure the Republican nomination, Roosevelt headed the newly formed Progressive Party, winning six states and 88 electoral votes, the strongest showing for a third party candidate ever.

    However, the split in the Republican ranks enabled Democrats to win by an electoral landslide.

    One former president ran for a nonconsecutive second term and won: Grover Cleveland, whose two terms ran from 1885-1889 and 1893-1897.

    The rise of progressivism

    When Roosevelt ran in 1912, he saw a society convulsed by rapid change.

    Between 1870 and 1900, the population of the United States rose from roughly 38 million to more than 76 million.

    During this time, business transformed from small-scale manufacturing and local trade to huge corporations and factory-based manufacturing.

    From 1900 to 1915, another 15 million immigrants settled in American cities.

    A political reform movement known as progressivism emerged across political parties. It sought to address problems with immigration, urbanization, political corruption, industrialization and the concentration of corporate power.

    Roosevelt’s political career tapped into progressivism’s growing momentum. First elected vice president as a Republican in 1900, he assumed the presidency in September 1901 after the assassination of President William McKinley.

    Campaigning on his progressive “Square Deal” — focused on consumer protections, control of large corporations and conservation of natural resources — in 1904, the popular incumbent won reelection in the largest electoral landslide the country had seen.

    But in 1908, Roosevelt declined to run for a third term. Instead, he advocated successfully for William Howard Taft, his secretary of war.

    However, as Taft’s presidency took shape, Roosevelt grew dissatisfied with him. What most frustrated Roosevelt was Taft’s refusal to use executive power to advance progressive goals.

    Seeing an urgent need for forceful presidential leadership, Roosevelt challenged Taft for the Republican nomination in 1912.

    A political cartoon from 1912 illustrating Theodore Roosevelt’s dissatisfaction with how President William Howard Taft carried out his policies.
    Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

    At the Republican National Convention, however, party leaders rejected Roosevelt and confirmed Taft’s nomination. Roosevelt’s supporters stormed out, complaining that leaders had manipulated rules and procedures to block the former president.

    Despite his loss of the nomination, Roosevelt assured his supporters that he felt as “strong as a Bull Moose” and expressed interest in “bolting” from the Republican Party.

    Roosevelt’s threat to leave his party was echoed more than 100 years later by another former president running for a nonconsecutive term. In late 2023, Trump refused to participate in the Republican presidential primary debates and refused to rule out the possibility of running as an independent.

    In doing so, Trump’s candidacy hampered efforts to seek an alternative candidate. It also disregarded opportunities to win over skeptical Republicans.

    The rise of the Bull Moose Party

    In a matter of weeks after Roosevelt failed to get the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party, popularly known as the Bull Moose Party, held its national convention and nominated Roosevelt as its first presidential candidate.

    His presidential campaign did not lack for energy or spectacle. In October 1912, the former president delivered a one-hour speech immediately after being shot in an assassination attempt.

    He told his supporters, “It takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose.”

    Theodore Roosevelt arrives at a hospital after New York saloon keeper John F. Schrank attempted to assassinate him in Milwaukee in 1912.
    Harlingue/Roger Viollet via Getty Images

    Like the recent assassination attempts on Trump, this attack drew condemnation and galvanized the former president’s core supporters.

    Roosevelt faced off on Election Day against the Republican incumbent, William Howard Taft; Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party candidate; and the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson.

    Many Republicans cast their ballots for Wilson, seeing his candidacy as more viable than Roosevelt’s. Some did so out of disgust for what they saw as Roosevelt’s egotistical and radical campaign.

    The split in the Republican Party created an opportunity for Democrats, who had been shut out of the presidency for decades.

    The legacy of 1912

    On election day, Democrat Wilson won 40 states and earned 435 electoral votes. Democrats also won the House and Senate for the first time since 1892.

    However, Wilson prevailed with less than 42% of the national vote, the smallest share won by a president since Abraham Lincoln’s 1860 election.

    A unified Republican ticket would very likely have prevailed in 1912.

    Taft blamed Roosevelt for 1 million Republicans voting for the Democratic ticket to stave off a Progressive win.

    Historical parallels are never perfect. However, the 1912 election invites some comparison, as one of the world’s most famous men runs for the third time for the presidency.

    The 2024 election will be close. Wary of Trump’s return to power, will disillusioned Republicans vote for Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, choose a third-party candidate, or sit out the election?

    Graeme Mack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-former-presidents-running-for-reelection-3-losses-1-win-and-1-still-tbd-234959

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adrienne Bitar, Lecturer, Cornell University

    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump debates Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on Sept. 10, 2024. Win McNamee/Getty Images

    When Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said during the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, that Haitian immigrants are eating pets, food historians like me were not surprised at the slur. Trump’s lie followed a long American history of peddling ugly rumors about immigrants stealing and eating pets.

    Dietary rules that unite and define American cuisine can so easily be perverted to use disgust to divide Americans. In the U.S., cow is food and dog is friend. Chicken is food. Cat is companion. The sharp lines between the animals Americans eat, love, protect and exterminate help write the dietary rules that define American norms.

    What we eat, what we don’t and with whom we break bread are just some of the food rules that unite and define Americans. Think of how turkey – or tofurkey – unites Americans behind the Thanksgiving ritual. Bottled water. Ice. Ballpark hot dogs. Airplane pretzels. Movie theater popcorn.

    Food can also establish group identity apart from the mainstream. Think of the many factions of vegan, vegetarian, paleo, grain-free and carnivore dieters who use food to express a political position. Also, of course, religious dietary proscriptions have worried scholars for centuries so that Jews, Muslims and Christians may never share a meal.

    There is no evidence that Haitians are stealing and eating pet cats and dogs. There is evidence, however, that racists have long twisted dietary rules to divide people and dehumanize immigrants. Trump told a lie to draw a line between Americans and others who allegedly eat the animals Americans love.

    A sign at a popular hot dog restaurant in Chicago reads ‘Immigrants eat our dogs,’ on Sept. 12, 2024, two days after the presidential debate.
    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    The legend of delicious pets

    The myth of eating pets traces back to old legends in Europe, Australia and the United States that “immigrants are stealing our cats and dogs for their dinner tables or to serve in ethnic restaurants,” writes the folklorist Jan Harold Brunvand.

    Two of the most common food-based legends center on “Oriental restaurants serving dog (or cat) meat, and legends about Asian immigrants in the United States capturing and cooking people’s pets,” Brunvard writes.

    By 1883, the legend was so well-established that the Chinese-American journalist Wong Chin Foo offered US$500 to anybody in New York for proof that Chinese people were eating cats or rats. No proof was found, but that didn’t stop the racist jokes or urban legends.

    None of the many examples deserve retelling. But scholars, for example, have cited “sick jokes” such as a “new Vietnamese cookbook is titled 100 Ways to Wok Your Dog.”

    Or as comedian Tessie Chua joked about her multiracial Chinese, Filipino and Irish identity in 1993 when she said, “That means I eat dog, but only if I can wash it down with Guinness Stout!”

    In 1971, mainstream news outlets, including Reuters, reported an “outrageously silly urban legend” of a pet poodle named Rosa served at a Hong Kong restaurant, complete with chili sauce and bamboo shoots.

    In 1980, Stockton, California, was seized by racist rumors of Vietnamese families stealing expensive purebred dogs for dinner.

    As recently as 2005, the TV show “Curb Your Enthusiasm” showed wedding
    guests vomiting
    after being misinformed that they had eaten a German shepherd named Oscar, prepared by a Korean-American florist. “Oscar is bulgogi!,” Larry David cries.

    Scholars calls these tropes a “nativist backlash” and “vehicle for anti-immigrant and especially anti-Asian sentiments in the U.S.”

    A long history of food-based slurs

    More precise, maybe, than the adage that “we are what we eat” is that we are what we won’t eat. Shunning our neighbor for their vile food – stinky, strange, unpalatable – is also decidedly an American tradition.

    “Garlic eater” was at one time recognizable in the U.S. as an ethnic slur for Italian Americans in the early 20th century. The names “spaghetti bender” and “grape stomper” were also used, but “garlic eater” stuck because, as one scholar argued, “garlic served as an ‘olfactory signifier’” – a distinguishing odor – “for the alien who consumed it.”

    So when far-right radical Laura Loomer tweeted in September 2024 that the White House “will smell like curry” if Kamala Harris becomes president, she was also using food to stoke racist fears.

    Americans aren’t alone in doing this. Some Persians call Punjabis “dal khor,” meaning dal-eater, and some Romanians call Italians “macaronar,” meaning macaroni-eater. Both are slurs. Iranians have been known to call Arabs “malakh-khor,” or locust-eater, and Southern Italians sometimes call Northern Italians “polentoni,” or polenta-eater.

    To an outsider, being called a lentil- or polenta-eater seems more like praise for a healthy diet than a racial epithet, but such are the vagaries of racism: People hate who they hate and justify it however possible.

    Other examples of how food can distinguish communities abound. In the Amazon, the Parakanã people appreciate tapir meat but abhor monkey. The Arara people, their neighbors, feel the opposite. Both groups are disgusted by one another. Curry, garlic, tapir, polenta, lentils – it doesn’t matter what the nail is, but how the hammer hits.

    Philomene Philostin, a naturalized U.S. citizen of Haitian origin, works in her store in Springfield, Ohio, that caters mainly to Haitian residents.
    Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

    Rumors with real-life consequences

    Urban legends about food and racist rumors can have serious consequences. Earlier in 2024, a false rumor that a Laotian and Thai restaurant in Fresno, California, cooked pit bulls led to such vile harassment that the owner, David Rasavong, moved the restaurant to a new location.

    After Trump repeated the myth during the debate that immigrants eat pets, Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, quickly became the target of bomb threats, forcing city buildings and schools to close. Members of the Haitian community have said they fear for their safety.

    But there’s a more hopeful side to the issue of food being used as a way to divide or unite people, too. The Latin origins for the words company and companionship mean the people we share our bread with.

    Garlic is now as central to American cuisine as apple pie. Nowadays, Americans are so much the better for the sushi, garlic and curry – and the diversity behind the deliciousness – that flavor American cuisine.

    Adrienne Bitar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways – https://theconversation.com/no-immigrants-arent-eating-dogs-and-cats-but-trumps-claim-is-part-of-an-ugly-history-of-myths-about-immigrant-foodways-239343

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: On the US-Mexico border, the records of Trump and Harris reflect the national mood of less immigration, not more

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By William McCorkle, Assistant Professor of Education, College of Charleston

    Migrants at a shelter in Tijuana, Mexico, watch the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Sept. 10, 2024. Carlos Moreno/NurPhoto/Getty Image

    In late July 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris released a campaign ad about the U.S.-Mexico border that resembled something out of the Republican playbook.

    In the ad, Harris said as president she would increase Border Patrol agents, stop human traffickers and prosecute transnational gangs – some of the very things that Republican contender Donald Trump has also promised to do if elected.

    Considered by her campaign strategists to be a good political move, Harris’ shift to the right reflects the more anti-immigrant direction the U.S. population has taken over the past few years. According to a July 2024 Gallup Poll, 55% of Americans wanted increased limits on immigration, marking the first time in nearly two decades that a majority of Americans supported such curbs.

    These anti-immigrant attitudes are partially due to exaggerated claims from conservative politicians and right-wing pundits that management of the U.S.-Mexico border is a disaster and the government is endangering public safety by allowing violent criminals to cross into the U.S.

    Worse, during the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump falsely accused Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating dogs and cats.

    As someone who has worked extensively with asylum-seekers at the border since 2019, I see clear differences between Harris and Trump on the issue of immigration.

    While in office, Trump instituted restrictive immigration policies at the border, which all but halted asylum. He also was behind the controversial child separation policy in 2018 and sought to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, the Obama-era federal program that prevents hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children from being deported.

    Though Harris’ record on immigration is not as extensive as Trump’s, she has shown as U.S. senator and vice president a willingness to be more restrictive on the border while continuing to support a pathway to citizenship for “Dreamers” and undocumented migrants who are married to U.S. citizens.

    Trump’s extremist rhetoric and policies

    Given that border security has become his signature issue, Trump may take even more draconian measures than he did during his first term in office, including restricting the asylum system further and deporting as many as 20 million undocumented immigrants.

    Perhaps Trump’s most controversial action during his first term was his child separation policy in 2018, which led to over 5,000 children being taken from their parents after being apprehended at the border. This action led to nationwide protests and international condemnation. As of May 2024, about 1,400 children remained separated from their families.

    Undaunted, Trump pursued other restrictive policies.

    Trump signed an executive order in 2019 and launched the Migrant Protection Protocols, better known as the Remain in Mexico policy. This order required asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S. border to be returned to Mexico while their claims were being processed. This program stayed in effect until the end of Trump’s presidency in 2020 and led to 81,000 expulsions.

    Trump also used Title 42 restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic to quickly expel migrants without visas to contain the pandemic with no exceptions. In the first seven months, almost 200,000 migrants were expelled.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in Arizona about immigration on Aug. 22, 2024.
    Olivier Touron/AFP/Getty Images

    Notably, the use of violent rhetoric against migrants increased dramatically during Trump’s emergence as the GOP leader. In his first term, Trump and his officials discussed shooting migrants crossing the border in the leg. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, one of his key allies, said the reason officials there do not shoot migrants is because they would be charged by the federal government.

    Trump has also promised he would be willing to use the U.S. military in Mexico to combat drug cartels.

    Harris’ balancing act

    As a U.S. senator in 2019, Harris voted against an anti-sanctuary city amendment that would have allowed local police to cooperate with federal immigration officials and potentially deport immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

    She was also the initial sponsor of legislation that would limit U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions against those caring for unaccompanied minors. But as attorney general of California, Harris did support turning over to immigration authorities minors living in the U.S. illegally who had committed crimes.

    As vice president, Harris has appeared to support a more restrictive approach similar to that of Biden‘s June 4, 2024, executive order that limited the number of asylum-seekers allowed to cross the border.

    She also supports the CBP One app system that was created by the Biden administration in early 2023.

    Under that process, individuals seeking asylum are given an opportunity to meet with an immigration official but often have to wait for months in dangerous conditions in Mexico.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a virtual meeting with immigrant rights leaders on July 22, 2021.
    Win McNamee/Getty Images

    Harris has also consistently spoken out on the need to support DACA. The Biden administration expanded health care coverage in 2024 for DACA recipients, giving them access to insurance through the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare.

    If elected, Harris likely would extend another of Biden’s 2024 executive orders that created a legal pathway to citizenship for immigrants who don’t have legal authorization to be in the U.S. but are married to U.S. citizens.

    In stark contrast, Trump has already criticized the policy and said he would end it if elected.

    The Biden-Harris administration also had a nuanced record on the border and deportations. They have deported almost the same number of immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization as Trump did.

    The Texas National Guard conducts an operation to prevent migrants from building a camp along the U.S.-Mexico border in April 2024.
    David Peinado/Anadolu via Getty Images

    As of June 2024, the number of deportations since the start of the Biden administration in January 2021 was already at 4.4 million. At the same time, these higher numbers reflect the fact that more people are coming to the border due to increased chances of entering.

    During the first three years of Biden’s presidency, over 1 million migrants at the border were granted temporary humanitarian parole, which allows them to stay in the U.S. while waiting for their asylum hearing.

    The reality of immigration

    Immigration has been largely portrayed as either a clear and present threat by Republicans or as an act of compassion by Democrats.

    In the increasingly anti-immigrant environment, however, you’ll rarely hear that the increased immigration under the Biden-Harris administration has been a significant factor in U.S. economic growth.

    Indeed, many economists also have argued that working-class immigrants coming from across the border have helped reduce inflation. Its my belief that the U.S. is in need of more migrants, not fewer, and hard-line stances and policies damage our society and economy.

    While Trump’s hard-line stance against immigrants both at the border and within the country is well known, Harris’ record shows a more balanced approach that has offered support for at least some immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally – and for those seeking asylum.

    William McCorkle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. On the US-Mexico border, the records of Trump and Harris reflect the national mood of less immigration, not more – https://theconversation.com/on-the-us-mexico-border-the-records-of-trump-and-harris-reflect-the-national-mood-of-less-immigration-not-more-237269

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US – climate change plays a big role

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrew J. Hoffman, Professor of Management & Organizations, Environment & Sustainability, and Sustainable Enterprise, University of Michigan

    The U.S. has seen a large number of billion-dollar disasters in recent years. AP Photo/Mark Zaleski

    Millions of Americans have been watching with growing alarm as their homeowners insurance premiums rise and their coverage shrinks. Nationwide, premiums rose 34% between 2017 and 2023, and they continued to rise in 2024 across much of the country.

    To add insult to injury, those rates go even higher if you make a claim – as much as 25% if you claim a total loss of your home.

    Why is this happening?

    There are a few reasons, but a common thread: Climate change is fueling more severe weather, and insurers are responding to rising damage claims. The losses are exacerbated by more frequent extreme weather disasters striking densely populated areas, rising construction costs and homeowners experiencing damage that was once more rare.

    Hurricane Ian, supercharged by warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane in October 2022 and caused an estimated $112.9 billion in damage.
    Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

    Parts of the U.S. have been seeing larger and more damaging hail, higher storm surges, massive and widespread wildfires, and heat waves that kink metal and buckle asphalt. In Houston, what used to be a 100-year disaster, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017, is now a 1-in-23-years event, estimates by risk assessors at First Street Foundation suggest. In addition, more people are moving into coastal and wildland areas at risk from storms and wildfires.

    Just a decade ago, few insurance companies had a comprehensive strategy for addressing climate risk as a core business issue. Today, insurance companies have no choice but to factor climate change into their policy models.

    Rising damage costs, higher premiums

    There’s a saying that to get someone to pay attention to climate change, put a price on it. Rising insurance costs are doing just that.

    Increasing global temperatures lead to more extreme weather, and that means insurance companies have had to make higher payouts. In turn, they have been raising their prices and changing their coverage in order to remain solvent. That raises the costs for homeowners and for everyone else.

    The importance of insurance to the economy cannot be understated. You generally cannot get a mortgage or even drive a car, build an office building or enter into contracts without insurance to protect against the inherent risks. Because insurance is so tightly woven into economies, state agencies review insurance companies’ proposals to increase premiums or reduce coverage.

    The insurance companies are not making political statements with the increases. They are looking at the numbers, calculating risk and pricing it accordingly. And the numbers are concerning.

    The arithmetic of climate risk

    Insurance companies use data from past disasters and complex models to calculate expected future payouts. Then they price their policies to cover those expected costs. In doing so, they have to balance three concerns: keeping rates low enough to remain competitive, setting rates high enough to cover payouts and not running afoul of insurance regulators.

    But climate change is disrupting those risk models. As global temperatures rise, driven by greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and other human activities, past is no longer prologue: What happened over the past 10 to 20 years is less predictive of what will happen in the next 10 to 20 years.

    The number of billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. each year offers a clear example. The average rose from 3.3 per year in the 1980s to 18.3 per year in the 10-year period ending in 2024, with all years adjusted for inflation.

    With that more than fivefold increase in billion-dollar disasters came rising insurance costs in the Southeast because of hurricanes and extreme rainfall, in the West because of wildfires, and in the Midwest because of wind, hail and flood damage.

    Hurricanes tend to be the most damaging single events. They caused more than US$692 billion in property damage in the U.S. between 2014 and 2023. But severe hail and windstorms, including tornadoes, are also costly; together, those on the billion-dollar disaster list did more than $246 billion in property damage over the same period.

    As insurance companies adjust to the uncertainty, they may run a loss in one segment, such as homeowners insurance, but recoup their losses in other segments, such as auto or commercial insurance. But that cannot be sustained over the long term, and companies can be caught by unexpected events. California’s unprecedented wildfires in 2017 and 2018 wiped out nearly 25 years’ worth of profits for insurance companies in that state.

    To balance their risk, insurance companies often turn to reinsurance companies; in effect, insurance companies that insure insurance companies. But reinsurers have also been raising their prices to cover their costs. Property reinsurance alone increased by 35% in 2023. Insurers are passing those costs to their policyholders.

    What this means for your homeowners policy

    Not only are homeowners insurance premiums going up, coverage is shrinking. In some cases, insurers are reducing or dropping coverage for items such as metal trim, doors and roof repair, increasing deductibles for risks such as hail and fire damage, or refusing to pay full replacement costs for things such as older roofs.

    Some insurances companies are simply withdrawing from markets altogether, canceling existing policies or refusing to write new ones when risks become too uncertain or regulators do not approve their rate increases to cover costs. In recent years, State Farm and Allstate pulled back from California’s homeowner market, and Farmers, Progressive and AAA pulled back from the Florida market, which is seeing some of the highest insurance rates in the country.

    In some cases, insurers are restricting coverage. Roof repairs, like these in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., after Hurricane Ian, can be expensive and widespread after windstorms.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    State-run “insurers of last resort,” which can provide coverage for people who can’t get coverage from private companies, are struggling too. Taxpayers in states such as California and Florida have been forced to bail out their state insurers. And the National Flood Insurance Program has raised its premiums, leading 10 states to sue to stop them.

    About 7.4% of U.S. homeowners have given up on insurance altogether, leaving an estimated $1.6 trillion in property value at risk, including in high-risk states such as Florida.

    No, insurance costs aren’t done rising

    According to NOAA data, 2023 was the hottest year on record “by far.” And 2024 could be even hotter. This general warming trend and the rise in extreme weather is expected to continue until greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are abated.

    In the face of such worrying analyses, U.S. homeowners insurance will continue to get more expensive and cover less. And yet, Jacques de Vaucleroy, chairman of the board of reinsurance giant Swiss Re, believes U.S. insurance is still priced too low to fully cover the risk from climate change.

    Andrew J. Hoffman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US – climate change plays a big role – https://theconversation.com/why-home-insurance-rates-are-rising-so-fast-across-the-us-climate-change-plays-a-big-role-238939

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sri Lankans throw out old guard in election upset: What nation’s new Marxist-leaning leader means for economy, IMF loans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Vidhura S. Tennekoon, Assistant Professor of Economics, Indiana University

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s celebrates his vote. Tharaka Basnayaka/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Sri Lankans voted for a new direction in leadership on Sept. 22, 2024, electing a leftist anti-poverty campaigner as president of the South Asian nation.

    The ascent of Anura Kumara Dissanayake marks a break with the past and from the establishment parties and politicians blamed for taking the country to the brink of economic collapse in 2022.

    Dissanayake characterized the victory as a “fresh start” for Sri Lanka – but he will nonetheless need to address the economic baggage left by his predecessors and the impact of an International Monetary Fund loan that came with painful austerity demands. The Conversation turned to Vidhura S. Tennekoon, an expert on Sri Lanka’s economy at Indiana University, to explain the task facing the new president – and how Dissanayake intends to tackle it.

    What do we know about Sri Lanka’s new president?

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake leads both the National People’s Power alliance, or NPP, and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or JVP. Rooted in Marxist ideology, the JVP was founded in the 1960s with the aim of seizing power through a socialist revolution. But after two failed armed uprisings in 1971 and 1987-89 – which resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of lives – the party shifted toward democratic politics and has remained so for over three decades.

    Until this election, the JVP remained a minor third party in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, while power alternated between the alliances led by the two traditional political parties – the United National Party and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party – or their descendant parties.

    In 2019, under Dissanayake’s leadership, the NPP was formed as a socialist alliance with several other organizations. While the JVP continues to adhere to Marxist principles, the NPP adopted a center-left, social democratic platform – aiming to attract broader public support.

    Despite these efforts, Dissanayake garnered only 3% of the vote in the 2019 presidential election.

    But the political landscape shifted dramatically during the economic crisis of 2022. Many Sri Lankans, frustrated with the two traditional parties that had governed the country for over seven decades, turned to the NPP, seeing it as a credible alternative.

    The party’s anti-corruption stance, in particular, resonated strongly because many people blamed political corruption for the economic collapse.

    It helped deliver 42% of the vote to Dissanayake.

    While a significant achievement, it also marks a historic first for Sri Lanka — Dissanayake is the first president to be elected without majority support; the remaining 58% of votes were split between candidates from the two traditional parties.

    His immediate challenge will be to secure a parliamentary majority in the upcoming elections, a crucial step for his administration to govern effectively.

    What kind of economy is Dissanayake inheriting?

    Two and a half years ago, Sri Lanka experienced the worst economic crisis in its history. With foreign reserves nearly depleted, the country struggled to pay its bills, leading to severe shortages of essential goods. People waited in long lines for cooking gas and fuel, while regular blackouts became part of daily life. The Sri Lankan rupee plummeted to a record low, driving inflation to 70%. The economy was contracting, and the country defaulted on its international sovereign bonds for the first time.

    This sparked a massive protest movement that ultimately forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign. In July 2022, Parliament appointed Ranil Wickremesinghe to complete the remainder of Rajapaksa’s term.

    Sri Lankans protest near the official residence of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on May 28, 2022.
    Tharaka Basnayaka/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    In the two years that followed, Sri Lanka’s economy made an unexpectedly rapid recovery under Wickremesinghe’s leadership. After securing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the currency stabilized, the central bank rebuilt foreign reserves, and inflation fell to single digits. By the first half of 2024, the economy had grown by 5%.

    The government successfully restructured its domestic debt, followed by a restructuring of its bilateral debt – that is, government-to-government loans, mostly from China but also from India and Western counties, including the United States. Just days before the election, an agreement was reached with international bondholders to restructure the remaining sovereign debt.

    Despite these achievements, Wickremesinghe was overtaken in the presidential race by both Dissanayake and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Wickremesinghe’s unpopularity stemmed largely from the harsh austerity measures implemented under the IMF-backed stabilization program.

    Dissanayake now inherits an economy that, while more stable, remains vulnerable. He will have limited room to maneuver away from the carefully planned economic path laid out by his predecessor, even as voters expect him to fulfill popular demands.

    How does Dissanayake plan to improve Sri Lanka’s economy?

    As a leader from a Marxist party, Dissanayake will likely pursue policies to reflect collective decisions made by the politburos and central committees of the NPP and JVP, rather than his individual views. He advocates for an economic system where activities are coordinated through a central government plan, emphasizing the importance of “economic democracy.”

    His party believes prosperity should be measured not just by economic growth but by the overall quality of life. They argue that people need more than just basic necessities — they require secure housing, food, health care, education, access to technology and leisure.

    Dissanayake’s long-term vision is to transform Sri Lanka into a production-based economy, focusing on sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and information technology rather than service industries. One of the key policies is to promote local production of all viable food products to reduce reliance on imports. To support these activities, the NPP plans to establish a development bank. Additionally, they NPP proposes increasing government spending on education and health care, in line with Sri Lanka’s tradition of providing free, universal access to both.

    Where does this leave the IMF loans?

    Historically, Dissanayake’s party has been critical of the IMF and its policy recommendations. Given the severity of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Dissanayake has acknowledged the need to stay within the IMF program for now. But he has vowed to renegotiate with the IMF to make the program more “people-friendly.” Dissanayake’s proposals include raising the personal income tax exemption threshold to double its current level and removing taxes on essential goods. Dissanayake’s party also plans adding jobs to the public sector, despite the ongoing effort to reduce the government workforce to manage the deficit.

    Dissanayake’s populist policies, aimed at attracting mass support during the campaign, will inevitably strain government revenues while increasing expenses. However, the IMF program requires Sri Lanka to maintain a primary budget surplus of at least 2.3% of gross domestic product to ensure debt sustainability. Dissanayake has promised not to jeopardize the country’s economic stability by deviating from this target. His strategy is to improve the efficiency of tax collection, which he believes will generate enough revenue to fund his policies.

    Additionally, his party has criticized the deal struck by Wickremesinghe’s government with international lenders, calling it unfavorable to the country. Dissanayake has promised to seek better terms. However, since these agreements are already in place, it remains uncertain whether the new government will attempt to renegotiate them.

    Vidhura Tennekoon was a former employee of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

    ref. Sri Lankans throw out old guard in election upset: What nation’s new Marxist-leaning leader means for economy, IMF loans – https://theconversation.com/sri-lankans-throw-out-old-guard-in-election-upset-what-nations-new-marxist-leaning-leader-means-for-economy-imf-loans-239649

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: From waste to power: how floating solar panels on wastewater ponds could help solve NZ’s electricity security crisis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Faith Jeremiah, Lecturer in Business Management (Entrepreneurship and Innovation), Lincoln University, New Zealand

    Getty Images

    Wastewater ponds may seem an unlikely place to look for solutions to New Zealand’s electricity security crisis. But their underutilised surfaces could help tackle two problems at once – high power prices and algal growth.

    Floating solar panels on wastewater ponds offer a multifaceted answer. They generate renewable energy, improve water quality in the treatment ponds and reduce costs.

    Leading this approach is the 2020 installation of New Zealand’s first floating solar array at the Rosedale wastewater treatment plant in Auckland. This project demonstrates how New Zealand could double the country’s power supply without requiring additional land. It serves as a test for future deployments on other reservoirs and dams.

    The project comprises 2,700 solar panels and 4,000 floating pontoons. It covers one hectare of the treatment pond, making excellent use of a marginal land asset in a dense urban environment.

    The floating solar array generates 1,040 kilowatts of electricity and reduces 145 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. It also saves NZ$4.5 million in electricity costs per year. The electricity it generates, alongside biogas co-generation, meets 25% of the plant’s energy needs.

    The floating solar panel array, together with biogas generation, meets a quarter of the Rosedale wastewater treatment plant’s energy needs.
    Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images

    The project represents the first use of floating solar and the first megawatt-sized solar project in the country. As energy prices soar and environmental pressures mount, it is time to start exploring innovative solutions with the resources we already have.

    Wastewater ponds provide underused surface

    New Zealand is currently grappling with an electricity crisis, marked by increasing demand, aging infrastructure and a challenging transition to renewable energy sources.

    The country relies heavily on hydroelectric power. This makes it particularly vulnerable during periods of low water levels in hydro lakes, especially in winter. This in turn leads to frequent supply shortfalls and, combined with diminishing gas supplies, to rising electricity prices.

    As New Zealand intensifies its efforts to integrate more renewable energy, we need innovative solutions to stabilise the grid and meet growing energy demands.

    One underutilised resource lies in wastewater treatment ponds. New Zealand has more than 200 wastewater ponds, chosen for their simplicity and low operational costs. They remain the most common form of wastewater treatment because they are robust, require low energy, cope with high water and waste loads and provide buffer storage to avoid applying agricultural effluent to wet soils.

    However, because of the high surface area and nutrient-rich environment, algal growth is one of the biggest issues with waste stabilisation ponds. This is exacerbated on days with high sunshine levels and warmer water temperatures. It complicates the treatment process and necessitates costly chemical interventions.

    An opportunity for New Zealand

    My background is in entrepreneurship and innovation and the idea of floating solar panels on New Zealand’s expansive wastewater ponds represents an untapped opportunity.

    Apart from generating power and preventing algal growth, the solar panels provide shade that keeps the water cooler and reduces evaporation. This is critical for maintaining effective wastewater treatment.

    Utility-scale solar panels are now recognised as the cheapest form of energy, with rapidly declining costs over the past five years.

    While relatively new to New Zealand, floating solar panels have shown significant advantages in other parts of the world. New Zealand may be held back by a misconception that solar panels work best in hot and sunny climates. In fact, solar panels harness the sun’s energy – not its temperature – making New Zealand’s cooler climate an ideal environment for efficient solar energy generation.

    Given New Zealand uses more energy per capita than 17 of our 30 OECD peers, floating solar panels on wastewater ponds could set an example for how we tackle energy and environmental challenges.

    By turning underutilised spaces into power-generating assets, we not only address immediate needs but also pave the way for a more sustainable, resilient future.

    Faith Jeremiah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. From waste to power: how floating solar panels on wastewater ponds could help solve NZ’s electricity security crisis – https://theconversation.com/from-waste-to-power-how-floating-solar-panels-on-wastewater-ponds-could-help-solve-nzs-electricity-security-crisis-237455

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Angelica Mesiti’s The Rites of When finally makes sense of the Art Gallery of NSW’s Tank. It is worth the plane flight

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Honorary Senior Fellow, School of Culture and Communication. Editor in chief, Design and Art of Australia Online, The University of Melbourne

    Installation view of Angelica Mesiti ‘The Rites of When’ 2024, 7-channel digital video installation, colour, sound, approx 30 min, collection of the artist, commissioned by the Art Gallery of New South Wales for the Nelson Packer Tank, 2024
    © Angelica Mesiti, photo © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter

    The Nelson Packer Tank, that cavernous space at the very bottom of the Art Gallery of NSW’s Naala Badu building, has been waiting for art like this.

    The former World War II oil storage tank is huge, held together by rows of structural columns. Their dominance means it is just not possible for viewers to have an unimpeded fields of vision for any art on display. Then there are the acoustics. Every sound resonates, but few carry far.

    This is a room of echoes, embedded in the dark.

    In this space Angelica Mesiti, an Australian living in France, has created The Rites of When: an event that rethinks ancient rituals of seasonal celebrations, while also marking the terrible changes wrought on our heating planet. Her tools are video, performers, music and song – all modified by the unique whispering echoes of the Tank.

    The sky, and the snow

    As the title implies, Mesiti has used the structure of Stravinski’s The rite of spring as one of the elements in her great design. But she shows a world far removed from mythical Russian peasants.

    Each of the two movements are preceded by “Celestial Nebula”, where abstract forms of light dissolve into a vision of the night sky, presented on seven giant video screens.

    This is not the sky as seen by city dwellers, where artificial light eliminates the stars, but rather the Milky Way in all its glory, with its hero stars which we call the Seven Sisters, but people in the northern hemisphere call the Pleiades.

    Installation view of Angelica Mesiti ‘The Rites of When’ 2024, 7-channel digital video installation, colour, sound, approx 30 min, collection of the artist, commissioned by the Art Gallery of New South Wales for the Nelson Packer Tank, 2024.
    © Angelica Mesiti, photo © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter

    Mesiti has said one of her inspirations was that, when COVID came, she and her partner began to spend time away from Paris in rural France. Here she came to know the night sky, and to see both the rhythms and the realities of rural life.

    In the first movement, a dazzling starscape is gradually bleached by artificial light, which transforms into sunlight, and the viewer is looking at drone footage of a snow-capped pine forest which we then zoom through.

    The dominant columns of The Tank combine with the straight tree trunks of this plantation forest give a sense of visual ambiguity. With the all surrounding sound, it is hard to work out where the screened image ends and where the columns begin.

    Angelica Mesiti ‘The Rites of When’ 2024 (video still), 7-channel digital video installation, colour, sound, approx 30 min, collection of the artist, commissioned by the Art Gallery of New South Wales for the Nelson Packer Tank, 2024.
    © Angelica Mesiti

    A sudden shift of mood in the music, and the viewers are plunged into the middle of a Brueghel-like celebration of people dancing in the winter solstice. The colours are warm, the rustic dancers are wearing decorations made of the fruits of the field. They dance around a bonfire made from wooden planks, they form a procession with an effigy of a horned beast, stuffed with fireworks.

    The fireworks and the dancers become a frenzy of ever increasing movement of rhythmic sound which explodes into dazzling white silence.

    Capturing the summer solstice

    When she was discussing The Rites of When at the media preview, Mesiti casually mentioned how hard it had been to film the snowy forest as, for the first time ever, winter was so mild it hardly snowed at all on the pine plantations of the Jura Mountains.

    Global heating added an extra element when filming the summer solstice.

    At first the viewer sees the seven screens as giant patterns of gold, marked by elegant patterns of vertical lines. Perspective changes when a tiny toy moving up one of the screens is revealed to be a harvester. This is a drone’s eye view of a wheat harvest in modern industrial scale farming. As the fields are slowly stripped of their crop, a puff of smoke appears, then a line of fire, and the gold is steadily eaten away to become charcoal.

    Installation view of Angelica Mesiti ‘The Rites of When’ 2024, 7-channel digital video installation, colour, sound, approx 30 min, collection of the artist, commissioned by the Art Gallery of New South Wales for the Nelson Packer Tank, 2024.
    © Angelica Mesiti, photo © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter

    This was not planned. Europe was so hot and dry last June that a single spark from a harvester grinding a stray stone turned the wheat to ash. Monoculture, so effectively described by those endless flat golden fields, has no defence against nature.

    The mood of the music changes and golden smoke covering the wheat dissolves into golden light. A small, solemn procession appears and moves across each screen in turn. They elevate each member in turn, in a quiet ritual performance.

    The colours of the background change with their movement– from gold, to red, to purple, to blue. As they reach the last screen the blue fades to grey, to rain.

    In the silence, a single hand on a single screen snaps fingers. On the other side of the room, another responds. Now there is a rhythmic orchestra clicking, clapping and slapping – ever faster, ever louder. The hands become dancers, moving in a wild ecstatic dance of increasing intensity, as the bodies are caught up with the music and the light.

    Angelica Mesiti ‘The Rites of When’ 2024 (video still), 7-channel digital video installation, colour, sound, approx 30 min, collection of the artist, commissioned by the Art Gallery of New South Wales for the Nelson Packer Tank, 2024.
    © Angelica Mesiti

    In her notes, Mesiti calls this section “Ecstatic Collectivity”. It seems an apt description.

    At the very end, Mesiti returns us to the pure colours of the Celestial Nebula. Perhaps she is saying the folly of humanity may change the moods of the earth, but the stars will endure forever.

    The Rites of When lasts just over 30 minutes. Because it is so dependent on its location, this is a piece that cannot travel. It is worth the price of an air fare.

    The Rites of When is at the Art Gallery of New South Wales, Sydney, until May 11 2025.

    Joanna Mendelssohn has in the past received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    ref. Angelica Mesiti’s The Rites of When finally makes sense of the Art Gallery of NSW’s Tank. It is worth the plane flight – https://theconversation.com/angelica-mesitis-the-rites-of-when-finally-makes-sense-of-the-art-gallery-of-nsws-tank-it-is-worth-the-plane-flight-239599

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ‘publish or perish’ mentality is fuelling research paper retractions – and undermining science

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nham Tran, Associate Professor and MTP Connect REDI Industry Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

    zefart/Shutterstock

    When scientists make important discoveries, both big and small, they typically publish their findings in scientific journals for others to read. This sharing of knowledge helps to advance science: it can, in turn, lead to more important discoveries.

    But published research papers can be retracted if there is an issue with their accuracy or integrity. And in recent years, the number of retractions has been rising sharply. For example, in 2023 more than 10,000 research papers were retracted globally. This marked a new record.

    The huge number of retractions indicates a lot of government research funding is being wasted. More importantly, the publication of so much flawed research also misleads other researchers and undermines scientific integrity.

    Fuelling this troubling trend is a mentality known in academia as “publish or perish” which has existed for decades. The publication of research papers drives university rankings and career progression, yet the relentless pressure to publish has contributed to an increase in fraudulent data. Unless this changes, the entire research landscape may shift toward a less rigorous standard, hindering vital progress in fields such as medicine, technology and climate science.

    A ‘publish or perish’ environment

    Universities and research institutes commonly use the rate of publications as a key indicator of research productivity and reputation.

    The Times Higher Education Index, which ranks these institutions, assigns 60% of its score to research, and publications are fundamental to this score.

    Additionally, publications are closely tied to individual career advancement. They influence decisions on tenure, promotions and securing funding.

    These factors create a “publish or perish” environment, a term first coined in 1942 by sociologist Logan Wilson.

    A growing trend

    Recent evidence indicates the constant pressure to generate data and publish papers may be affecting the quality of research and fuelling retractions of research papers.

    Retraction Watch is one of the largest databases to monitor scientific retractions. Launched in 2010, it reveals a growing trend in the number of publications being retracted.

    In the past decade, there have been more than 39,000 retractions, and the annual number of retractions is growing by around 23% each year.

    Nearly half the retractions were due to issues related to the authenticity of the data. For example, in August the United States Office of Research Integrity found that Richard Eckert, a senior biochemist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore, faked data in 13 published papers. Four of these papers have been corrected, one has been retracted and the remainder are still awaiting action.

    Plagiarism was the second most common reason research papers were retracted, accounting for 16% of retractions.

    Fake peer review was another reason why research papers were retracted.

    Typically, when a publication is submitted to a journal, it undergoes peer review by experts in the same field. These experts provide feedback to improve the quality of the work.

    However, the use of fake peer reviewers has increased tenfold over the past decade. There has also been an eightfold rise in publications linked to so-called “paper mills”, which are businesses that provide fake papers for a fee.

    In 2022, up to 2% of all publications were from paper mills.

    Genuine mistakes in the scientific process accounted for only roughly 6% of all retractions in the last decade.

    More pressure, more mistakes

    One reason for the surge in retractions over the last decade may be that we are getting better at finding and detecting suspicious data.

    Digital publishing has made it easier to detect potential fabrication, and more scientists are making a brave stand against these dubious practices. No doubt, the current number of retractions is an underestimate of a much larger pool.

    But the intensification of the “publish or perish” culture within universities also plays a major role.

    Nearly all academic staff are required to meet specific publication quotas for performance evaluations, while institutions themselves use publication output to boost their rankings. High publication counts and citations enhance a university’s position in global rankings, attracting more students and generating income from teaching.

    The prevailing reward system in academia often prioritises publication quantity over quality. When promotions, funding, and recognition are tied to the number of papers published, scientists may feel pressured to cut corners, rush experiments, or even fabricate data to meet these metrics.

    Changing the model

    Initiatives such as the San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment are pushing for change. This initiative advocates for evaluating research based on its quality and societal impact rather than journal-based metrics such as impact factors or citation counts.

    A shift in journal policies to prioritise the sharing of all experimental data would enhance scientific integrity. It would ensure researchers could replicate experiments to verify others’ results.

    Academics face increasing pressure to publish journal articles to advance their careers.
    Protasov AN/Shutterstock

    Also, universities, research institutions and funding agencies need to improve their due diligence and hold those responsible for misconduct accountable.

    Including a simple question such as, “Have you ever had or been involved in a retracted paper?” on grant applications or academic promotions would improve the integrity of research by deterring unethical behaviour. Dishonest answers could be easily detected, thanks to the availability of online tools and databases such as Retraction Watch.

    Over the past 20 years, scientific research has significantly improved our quality of life. Career scientists must shoulder the responsibility of ensuring researchers uphold the values of truth and integrity that are fundamental to our profession. Protecting the integrity of our work is foremost to our mission, and we must remain vigilant in safeguarding these principles.

    Nham Tran receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    ref. The ‘publish or perish’ mentality is fuelling research paper retractions – and undermining science – https://theconversation.com/the-publish-or-perish-mentality-is-fuelling-research-paper-retractions-and-undermining-science-238983

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Who looks after me?’ More than 40% of disability carers have disability themselves – and they need more support

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Collings, Senior Research Fellow, Transforming early Education and Child Health Research Centre, Western Sydney University

    Yiistocking/Shutterstock

    Caring for someone with disability is a complex and demanding task. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show this role is increasingly being undertaken by people who have disability themselves. There were 1.2 million primary carers in Australia in 2022, and of these, 43.8% have disability (up from 32.1% in 2018).

    Disability support and aged care are critical issues for the federal government right now. The new Aged Care Act will take effect in July next year and amendments to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) Act roll out from early October.

    A National Carers Strategy, recognising the demands placed on informal carers and the need for better supports, is also being developed.

    What do this group of carers need? And are they getting the right kind of support?

    Invisible labour

    Three million Australians currently provide informal care for loved ones with disability, medical conditions, mental illness or frailty from ageing.

    In line with our ageing population, one in six carers are over 65 and most older Australians want to age “in place” at home. This means informal care needs are set to rise exponentially.

    Improved diagnosis, more disclosure of disability status and higher prevalence of health conditions leading to disability are increasing the numbers of and demands on informal carers.

    Who is doing the caring and why?

    While both women (12.8% of the population) and men (11.1%) provide informal care, women are more likely to be primary carers (6.1% are women, 3% are men.

    Primary carers are less likely to be in paid employment than non-carers (64.6% to 82%), and fewer than half of those caring for 40 hours or more a week are employed. Informal carers are more likely to have a disability or chronic health condition (38.6%) than the general population (21.4%), with even higher rates among primary carers (43.8%).

    The main reasons for becoming a carer are a sense of family responsibility and emotional obligation. Over a third of those caring for their child say they have no other choice.

    We analysed qualitative data from the 2022 National Carer Survey conducted by Carers NSW.

    Of 6,825 respondents from across Australia, over 80% were women and almost half (47.6%) identified as having disability or long-term health conditions, which the survey combines. Disability and poor health among carers are associated with higher levels of emotional distress and greater difficulty in accessing services.

    Most carers are women and their caring load may prevent them doing paid work.
    Desizned/Shutterstock

    ‘My prospect of earning an income and saving is bleak’

    Statistics tell us only part of the story. The voices of informal carers who report living with disability or chronic health conditions shed light on the layered demands they face. They reported that care is often invisible, undervalued and ceaseless. One woman, aged 73, described informal care as “hard and unappreciated work”.

    A lack of government support and financial uncertainty left many despairing. As one carer, aged 56, said:

    No government recognises us and in the end we are saving them billions/trillions of dollars […] I have been a carer for over 13 years and it will go on for many years, so my prospect of earning an income and saving is bleak.

    Caring can have profound health and wellbeing effects. As another woman, aged 56, said:

    Being close to retirement myself, and having elderly parents, puts so much strain on my own health, mentally and physically. I have had to deal with breast cancer and its treatments and ongoing side effects. This is really stressful. I oversee all the services, and manage ongoing issues. My care role is endless. I only work minimal hours myself due to my care role. Who looks after me?

    Caring for carers

    Carers with disability or chronic health conditions report a lack of appropriate, accessible and timely services. This makes it hard to meet their own health-care needs. Many struggle with arranging support across mainstream and NDIS providers on behalf of the person they care for and themselves.

    Our research about the needs of a specific group of disabled Australians with care-giving responsibilities – parents with intellectual disability – find they can fall between system gaps when mainstream services are not accessible or the NDIS fails to take a family-centred approach.

    A parent with intellectual disability may struggle to understand complex and shifting eligibility rules and might be able to use their NDIS funding to assist with meal preparation for themselves but not for their child. As one mother with intellectual disability said:

    No one explained to me, ‘Oh, the NDIS package can help you with a lot of different things’, like helping with my parenting capacity.

    Changes and opportunity

    A cornerstone of the NDIS reforms is the creation of foundational supports. That’s good news for the 86% of disabled Australians without an NDIS plan and their informal carers, who rely on mainstream services like schools, health services and public transport.

    Likewise, the National Carers Strategy is an opportunity to ease some of the burden shouldered by many informal carers. By consulting with carers directly, services designed to meet their diverse needs and circumstances can be made available. In the immediate term, often carers reach crisis point before receiving support. Early interventions in the form of practical, everyday, orientated supports – including respite together with peer support – can help.

    Proper support for carer wellbeing and economic and social participation, from all levels of government, recognises the complex role carers play and their own support and health-care needs. These are only going to increase in the future.


    The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of Sarah Judd-Lam and Lukas Hofstaetter from Carers NSW for their data and analysis contributions to this piece.

    Gabrielle Weidemann receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Defence. This funding is not for research on disability and/or care for those with disability.

    Elisabeth Duursma, Michelle O’Shea, and Susan Collings do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘Who looks after me?’ More than 40% of disability carers have disability themselves – and they need more support – https://theconversation.com/who-looks-after-me-more-than-40-of-disability-carers-have-disability-themselves-and-they-need-more-support-236786

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How can I stop eating to cope with negative emotions?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Inge Gnatt, PhD Candidate, Lecturer in Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Have you ever noticed changes in your eating habits when you are sad, bored or anxious?

    Many people report eating either more, or less, as a way of helping them to cope when they experience difficult emotions.

    Although this is a very normal response, it can take the pleasure out of eating, and can become distressing and bring about other feelings of shame and self-criticism.

    Adding to the complexity of it all, we live in a world where diet culture is unavoidable, and our relationship to eating, food and body image can become complicated and confusing.

    Emotional eating is common

    “Emotional eating” refers to the eating behaviours (typically eating more) that occur in response to difficult emotions.

    Research shows around 20% of people regularly engage in emotional eating, with a higher prevalence among adolescents and women. In a study of more than 1,500 adolescents, 34% engaged in emotional eating while sad and 40% did so while anxious.

    Foods consumed are often fast-foods and other energy-dense, nutrient-poor convenience foods.

    Stress, strong emotions and depression

    For some people, emotional eating was simply a habit formed earlier in life that has persisted over time.

    But other factors might also contribute to the likelihood of emotional eating. The physiological effects of stress and strong emotions, for example, can influence hormones such as cortisol, insulin and glucose, which can also increase appetite.

    Increased impulsivity (behaving before thinking things through), vulnerability to depression, a tendency to ruminate and difficulties regulating emotions also increase the likelihood of emotional eating.

    Depression increases the likelihood of emotional eating.
    TommyStockProject/Shutterstock

    So what do you do?

    First, know that fluctuations in eating are normal. However, if you find that the way you eat in response to difficult emotions is not working for you, there are a few things you can do.

    Starting with small things that are achievable but can have a huge impact, such as prioritising getting enough sleep and eating regularly.

    Then, you can start to think about how you handle your emotions and hunger cues.

    Expand your emotional awareness

    Often we label emotions as good or bad, and this can result in fear, avoidance, and unhelpful coping strategies such as emotional eating.

    But it’s also important to differentiate the exact emotion. This might be feeling isolated, powerless or victimised, rather than something as broad as sad.

    By noticing what the emotion is, we can bring curiosity to what it means, how we feel in our minds and bodies, and how we think and behave in response.

    Tap into your feelings of hunger and fullness

    Developing an intuitive way of eating is another helpful strategy to promote healthy eating behaviours.

    Intuitive eating means recognising, understanding and responding to internal signals of hunger and fullness. This might mean tuning in to and acknowledging physical hunger cues, responding by eating food that is nourishing and enjoyable, and identifying sensations of fullness.

    Intuitive eating encourages flexibility and thinking about the pleasure we get from food and eating. This style of eating also allows us to enjoy eating out with friends, and sample local delicacies when travelling.

    It can also reduce the psychological distress from feeling out of control with your eating habits and the associated negative body image.

    Try to be flexible in thinking about the pleasure of food and eating with friends.
    La Famiglia/Shutterstock

    When is it time to seek help?

    For some people, the thoughts and behaviours relating to food, eating and body image can negatively impact their life.

    Having the support of friends and family, accessing online resources and, in some instances, seeing a trained professional, can be very helpful.

    There are many therapeutic interventions that work to improve aspects associated with emotional eating. These will depend on your situation, needs, stage of life and other factors, such as whether you are neurodivergent.

    The best approach is to engage with someone who can bring compassion and understanding to your personal situation, and work with you collaboratively. This work might include:

    • unpacking some of the patterns that could be underlying these emotions, thoughts and behaviours
    • helping you to discover your emotions
    • supporting you to process other experiences, such as trauma exposure
    • developing a more flexible and intuitive way of eating.

    One of the dangers that can occur in response to emotional eating is the temptation to diet, which can lead to disordered eating, and eating disorder behaviours. Indicators of a potential eating disorder can include:

    • recent rapid weight loss
    • preoccupation with weight and shape (which is usually in contrast to other people’s perceptions)
    • eating large amounts of food within a short space of time (two hours or less) and feeling a sense of loss of control
    • eating in secret
    • compensating for food eaten (with vomiting, exercise or laxatives).

    Evidence-based approaches can support people experiencing eating disorders. To find a health professional who is informed and specialises in this area, search the Butterfly Foundation’s expert database.


    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14, or the Butterfly Foundation on 1800 ED HOPE
    (1800 33 4673).

    Inge Gnatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How can I stop eating to cope with negative emotions? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-i-stop-eating-to-cope-with-negative-emotions-238218

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Costly defamation action looms large over Australian newsrooms. It’s diminishing press freedom

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    This piece is the final of a three part series on Australia’s defamation laws. You can read the other pieces here and here.


    Defamation laws exist to strike a balance between press freedom and the protection of people’s reputations from wrongful harm. In Australia, this balance has always been loaded against press freedom.

    This is due partly to the way the defamation laws have been framed and partly by the way the courts have interpreted them.

    Courts examine matters of journalism in the same way they examine matters of law: forensically, with strict rules and high standards of evidence and proof.

    While we rightly expect ethical and honest reporting from our media, even the best can prove insufficient under the piercing gaze of defamation law. And in a time when media companies are more cash-strapped than ever, this has a chilling effect on the stories that get told and press freedom more broadly.

    Ethics vs the law

    Until 2006, each Australian jurisdiction had its own defamation laws. This created a nightmare of complexity for publishers, especially of newspapers and broadcasts that crossed state boundaries, which meant all the main media organisations.

    They had to take into account the risks posed by litigation in the jurisdiction least favourable to press freedom.

    For many decades, that was New South Wales. It was one of the states where truth alone was not a sufficient defence; there also had to be a public interest in the material. In some other jurisdictions this was called public benefit.




    Read more:
    With all these defamation lawsuits, what ever happened to free speech?


    This was a major burden on press freedom and it was removed by the introduction of uniform defamation laws in 2006.

    Since then, it has been enough for publishers to prove the substantial truth of the meanings conveyed in an article in order for the defence of truth to succeed.

    It may sound straightforward, but proving substantial truth requires producing admissible evidence strong enough to satisfy the civil standard of proof: on the balance of probabilities. That usually means having documents and witnesses who are willing to be identified.

    If, as is often the case, the article has drawn on evidence from a confidential source, the publisher is unable to put that source in the witness box because to do so would breach the media’s fundamental ethical obligation to protect the identity of confidential sources.

    So unless the source is prepared in advance to be identified should the matter come to court, a story relying significantly on that person’s testimony may not see the light of day unless some other defence is available.

    In 2021, those defences were expanded, although quite how significant that expansion turns out to be remains to be seen.

    What appears on paper to be the most significant change was the introduction of a general public interest defence. This says that if publication of a story is in the public interest, and the publisher has a reasonable belief that it is, then publication can be defended on that ground.

    There has been only one major test of that new defence, and it went against the media.

    That case showed “reasonable belief” depended on the journalism being sound. In this case, the court found that the defendant, which was the ABC, had relied on shaky testimony that had not been sufficiently verified and had not given the subject of the story a fair opportunity to respond.

    At odds with practicalities

    This brings us to the question of how the courts interpret the law.

    One of the big disappointments in this respect has been the way the courts have interpreted what, at the time, was hoped to be a significant addition to Australia’s threadbare free-speech jurisprudence.

    In a case brought against the ABC by a late prime minister of New Zealand, David Lange, the High Court established the principle that freedom of speech on matters of government and politics trumped a person’s case for protection for their reputation.

    If a person wanted to sue for defamation, they had to do so in a way that did not burden freedom of speech on matters of government and politics.




    Read more:
    Politicians know defamation laws can silence women, but they won’t do anything about it


    However, the High Court attached a test of reasonableness to this freedom. In several ways, it’s similar to the “reasonable belief” test in the new public interest defence.

    Unfortunately, successive courts have applied the Lange reasonableness test in ways that are so strict they require journalists to meet standards demanding more powers of investigation than they possess or to exceed the usual journalistic standards of verification. Journalists can’t subpoena documents or compel people to speak to them.

    The result is that this defence has become more or less a dead letter for journalistic purposes.

    Is a story worth the cost?

    Those accused of defamation can also defend it by saying it was comment or honest opinion. The first requirement of this defence is that the material be a comment and not a statement of fact.

    But courts have interpreted this in different ways.

    This uncertainty was illustrated by a famous case that became known as “Leo the Lobster”. A restaurant and restaurateur in Sydney successfully sued the Sydney Morning Herald over a review of a lobster dinner written by one Leo Schofield.

    Schofield, who was a colourful writer, said the lobster had been overcooked:

    the carbonized claws contained only a kind of white powder which might have been albino walrus.

    Despite the amusing language, the court interpreted that as a literal factual description, not a statement of opinion.

    Courts have a limited sense of humour, which makes satirical writing a chancy business, since the sharper the satire, the closer it is to literal truth.

    Cartoons, which are satirical by definition, have more leeway but are not immune to defamation suits.

    Then there’s the costs of defamation, particularly for media outlets. They’ve become exorbitant.

    It has been estimated that the costs involved in the case brought by Ben Roberts-Smith against The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times amounted to about $25 million. The newspapers won, although the matter has gone to appeal.

    But even if the verdict is upheld, experience shows it is unlikely they will recoup anything like their full costs.

    At a time when all major news media organisations are under acute financial pressure because of the inroads the internet has made on their revenue, there is a strong temptation not to risk publishing material the public has a right to know because of the financial impact an action for defamation would have.

    Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Costly defamation action looms large over Australian newsrooms. It’s diminishing press freedom – https://theconversation.com/costly-defamation-action-looms-large-over-australian-newsrooms-its-diminishing-press-freedom-238072

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How can I stop using food to cope with negative emotions?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Inge Gnatt, PhD Candidate, Lecturer in Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Have you ever noticed changes in your eating habits when you are sad, bored or anxious?

    Many people report eating either more, or less, as a way of helping them to cope when they experience difficult emotions.

    Although this is a very normal response, it can take the pleasure out of eating, and can become distressing and bring about other feelings of shame and self-criticism.

    Adding to the complexity of it all, we live in a world where diet culture is unavoidable, and our relationship to eating, food and body image can become complicated and confusing.

    Emotional eating is common

    “Emotional eating” refers to the eating behaviours (typically eating more) that occur in response to difficult emotions.

    Research shows around 20% of people regularly engage in emotional eating, with a higher prevalence among adolescents and women. In a study of more than 1,500 adolescents, 34% engaged in emotional eating while sad and 40% did so while anxious.

    Foods consumed are often fast-foods and other energy-dense, nutrient-poor convenience foods.

    Stress, strong emotions and depression

    For some people, emotional eating was simply a habit formed earlier in life that has persisted over time.

    But other factors might also contribute to the likelihood of emotional eating. The physiological effects of stress and strong emotions, for example, can influence hormones such as cortisol, insulin and glucose, which can also increase appetite.

    Increased impulsivity (behaving before thinking things through), vulnerability to depression, a tendency to ruminate and difficulties regulating emotions also increase the likelihood of emotional eating.

    Depression increases the likelihood of emotional eating.
    TommyStockProject/Shutterstock

    So what do you do?

    First, know that fluctuations in eating are normal. However, if you find that the way you eat in response to difficult emotions is not working for you, there are a few things you can do.

    Starting with small things that are achievable but can have a huge impact, such as prioritising getting enough sleep and eating regularly.

    Then, you can start to think about how you handle your emotions and hunger cues.

    Expand your emotional awareness

    Often we label emotions as good or bad, and this can result in fear, avoidance, and unhelpful coping strategies such as emotional eating.

    But it’s also important to differentiate the exact emotion. This might be feeling isolated, powerless or victimised, rather than something as broad as sad.

    By noticing what the emotion is, we can bring curiosity to what it means, how we feel in our minds and bodies, and how we think and behave in response.

    Tap into your feelings of hunger and fullness

    Developing an intuitive way of eating is another helpful strategy to promote healthy eating behaviours.

    Intuitive eating means recognising, understanding and responding to internal signals of hunger and fullness. This might mean tuning in to and acknowledging physical hunger cues, responding by eating food that is nourishing and enjoyable, and identifying sensations of fullness.

    Intuitive eating encourages flexibility and thinking about the pleasure we get from food and eating. This style of eating also allows us to enjoy eating out with friends, and sample local delicacies when travelling.

    It can also reduce the psychological distress from feeling out of control with your eating habits and the associated negative body image.

    Try to be flexible in thinking about the pleasure of food and eating with friends.
    La Famiglia/Shutterstock

    When is it time to seek help?

    For some people, the thoughts and behaviours relating to food, eating and body image can negatively impact their life.

    Having the support of friends and family, accessing online resources and, in some instances, seeing a trained professional, can be very helpful.

    There are many therapeutic interventions that work to improve aspects associated with emotional eating. These will depend on your situation, needs, stage of life and other factors, such as whether you are neurodivergent.

    The best approach is to engage with someone who can bring compassion and understanding to your personal situation, and work with you collaboratively. This work might include:

    • unpacking some of the patterns that could be underlying these emotions, thoughts and behaviours
    • helping you to discover your emotions
    • supporting you to process other experiences, such as trauma exposure
    • developing a more flexible and intuitive way of eating.

    One of the dangers that can occur in response to emotional eating is the temptation to diet, which can lead to disordered eating, and eating disorder behaviours. Indicators of a potential eating disorder can include:

    • recent rapid weight loss
    • preoccupation with weight and shape (which is usually in contrast to other people’s perceptions)
    • eating large amounts of food within a short space of time (two hours or less) and feeling a sense of loss of control
    • eating in secret
    • compensating for food eaten (with vomiting, exercise or laxatives).

    Evidence-based approaches can support people experiencing eating disorders. To find a health professional who is informed and specialises in this area, search the Butterfly Foundation’s expert database.


    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14, or the Butterfly Foundation on 1800 ED HOPE
    (1800 33 4673).

    Inge Gnatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How can I stop using food to cope with negative emotions? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-i-stop-using-food-to-cope-with-negative-emotions-238218

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Both Israel and Hezbollah are obligated by the law to prevent civilian deaths. Neither side is showing restraint

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Crawford, Lecturer and Co-Director, Sydney Centre for International Law, University of Sydney

    As the violence between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated dramatically in recent days, civilians have paid a heavy price.

    Hundreds of people in southern Lebanon have been killed and more than 1,600 wounded in Israeli airstrikes.

    Hezbollah, meanwhile, has fired hundreds of rockets and other munitions into Israel.

    More than 160,000 people have been displaced on either side of the border from the fighting, which many fear may be close to tipping into a full-scale war.

    One senior analyst for the International Crisis Group said there’s been a “very worrying shift” on both sides in recent days in terms of a willingness to cause civilian casualties.

    In such a chaotic environment, just what exactly are both sides obligated to do under the law to prevent civilian casualties?

    What are both sides obligated to do as a baseline?

    The law of armed conflict is very straightforward on this question – they must only target military objectives and military personnel. They must not target civilians.

    And even when launching attacks against legitimate military objectives, all parties to an armed conflict are under an obligation to, as much as possible, minimise the risk of collateral, civilian damage.

    If it becomes clear at any point in the planning or the execution of an attack that there is going to be disproportionate civilian damage, then the attack should be called off or appropriate warnings should be given.

    Warnings are complicated, though. There is no strict obligation to warn civilians in the law of conflict. Rather, there is a requirement to warn civilians if the circumstances permit.

    So, for instance, if it’s necessary to immediately attack a specific location because it’s the only opportunity you would have to target an insurgent leader or legitimate high-value target, there’s no obligation to give prior warning.

    The other complication is that while the Israeli Defence Forces have been historically quite good about providing warnings through email blasts and leaflet drops, there are still physical constraints in places like Gaza and southern Lebanon. They are densely populated and quite geographically confined.

    So the degree to which people can actually physically flee when they’ve been given a warning is debatable. How effective can a warning be if there’s nowhere for them to go?

    Distinguishing between civilian and military targets

    All parties in a conflict are bound by the same obligation, which is to distinguish between civilians and the military.

    That said, the law of armed conflict does allow for some collateral damage – which is defined as unavoidable incidental civilian casualties. The parties to a conflict need to take this into account in a proportionality assessment.

    This places obligations on parties to a conflict to perhaps choose a different time or method of warfare to make the attacks more specific.

    There are some aerial drone attacks and missile attacks that can be highly discriminate. For example, there are missiles that can be timed to only detonate inside a particular apartment, so that only the residents in that apartment are injured or killed. It does not bring down the entire building.

    Where you start coming into problems are bombardments of entire buildings in order to target one really high-value individual – does this justify a much higher number of civilian casualties?

    There is an element of the IDF using this justification because Hamas and Hezbollah are non-state groups and don’t engage in regular tactics.

    Is Hezbollah bound by the same rules?

    Hezbollah is absolutely bound by the same rules as states. Nearly all the rules of the law of armed conflict are customary. This means everyone is bound by the law, even if they haven’t been a signatory to a treaty like the Geneva Convention.

    This means, for example, that Hezbollah must prevent casualties among Lebanese citizens, as well as Israelis. Under the law, Hezbollah does not only have to distinguish between civilians and the military in their active attacks. They also can’t attempt to immunise their military assets by placing them in dense civilian areas.

    And they need to do their utmost to remove civilians from areas where there are going to be military attacks.

    Again, part of the complication is these are very enclosed spaces. So the question becomes exactly how far away do civilians need to be?

    This is not just specific to Gaza, Lebanon or Israel – it’s a question for most places that have densely built-out areas. Urban warfare is one of the really difficult areas for the law at the moment.

    Where to from here?

    The tactics being used by Hamas and Hezbollah are nothing new. There’s always been a fairly consistent disregard for the law and brutality in a lot of their activities.

    But if it can be proven the pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah were carried out by the IDF, that’s a new level of brutality for Israel, because that’s an absolute violation of the protocol on booby traps and landmines. Israel is a party to that protocol.

    The laws always get broken in times of armed conflict. But this has been quite unprecedented.

    For legal and political reasons, there is value in actually acquitting yourself in a conflict with restraint. Parties to a conflict are still operating on the basis that eventually normal international relations have to resume. And it’s far better to have those international relations resume without the other side believing you capable of barbarism.

    Emily Crawford receives funding from the Nautilus Foundation.

    ref. Both Israel and Hezbollah are obligated by the law to prevent civilian deaths. Neither side is showing restraint – https://theconversation.com/both-israel-and-hezbollah-are-obligated-by-the-law-to-prevent-civilian-deaths-neither-side-is-showing-restraint-239724

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Surrogacy is booming. But new research suggests these pregnancies could be higher risk for women and babies

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Dahlen, Professor of Midwifery, Associate Dean Research and HDR, Midwifery Discipline Leader, Western Sydney University

    Helena Lopes/Pexels

    A new study from Canada has found women who agree to carry and birth babies in surrogacy arrangements face a higher risk of complications than other pregnant women.

    These women were at two to three times the risk of health problems such as postpartum haemorrhages and pre-eclampsia. They were also more likely to give birth prematurely.

    With an increasing number of people in Australia and elsewhere having children via surrogacy arrangements, what can we make of these findings?

    First, what is surrogacy?

    Surrogacy is a situation where a woman becomes pregnant and gives birth to a baby (or babies) for another person or a couple in a planned arrangement.

    There are two types of surrogacy.

    The first is where the pregnant woman is the full biological mother, with the child conceived using her own egg (sometimes called “traditional” or “genetic” surrogacy).

    The second is where the pregnant woman is not the genetic mother and the child is conceived using the egg of a different woman (called “gestational surrogacy”).

    Gestational surrogacy involves the transfer of an embryo or embryos into the uterus of a woman who has agreed to carry and birth the child using in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Gestational surrogacy is now the most common form of surrogacy arrangement in Australia.

    The new study looked at gestational surrogacy specifically.

    What the researchers did

    The study, published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, was retrospective. This means it used existing data that is gathered routinely on people using health services.

    It included 863,017 women who had a single baby between April 2012 and March 2021 (multiple births were excluded).

    The researchers compared outcomes for women and babies where the pregnancy was achieved naturally, those who got pregnant using IVF, and those who were pregnant in a gestational surrogacy arrangement where the woman had no genetic link to the baby.

    Most babies were conceived naturally, 16,087 were IVF pregnancies, and 806 women were pregnant in gestational surrogacy arrangements.

    The study looked at more than 860,000 women in Canada who had a baby over a nine-year period.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    The researchers found pregnant women in gestational surrogacy arrangements had a rate of severe maternal complications of 7.8%, more than three times the rate of those who became pregnant naturally (2.3%) and almost twice the rate among those who got pregnant through IVF (4.3%).

    These risks included postpartum haemorrhage (losing excessive amounts of blood following the birth), severe pre-eclampsia (high blood pressure associated with pregnancy) and serious postpartum infection (sepsis). There was also a higher risk of the baby being born preterm (before 37 weeks) in gestational surrogacy situations.

    The researchers attempted to take into account differences between the three groups like age, weight, health problems and socioeconomic status, which can all influence the risk of complications for pregnant women and their babies. Despite this, they still saw these concerning results.

    Why might the risk be higher?

    Previous research looking at outcomes with gestational surrogacy has had mixed results. But it is thought the reason risks could be greater for the woman and baby in gestational surrogacy arrangements may be because the baby is genetically unrelated to the woman.

    Pregnancy has a strong impact on the immune system. During pregnancy, women’s immune systems are altered so they do not reject the growing baby.

    An imbalanced or overactive immune response can contribute to pregnancy complications including preterm birth and pre-eclampsia. Having a baby with different genetic material may affect a woman’s immune response during pregnancy, and increase the risk of complications in this way.

    Some limitations

    Only women having a single baby were included in the study, so we don’t know the outcomes where a multiple pregnancy was involved. However, multiple birth is common in surrogacy, and there are increased risks associated with multiple births for women and babies.

    Multiple embryo transfer increases the risk of twins and triplets and is prohibited in the context of surrogacy in Australia (and discouraged in IVF treatments more broadly). But Australians engaging in overseas surrogacy commonly request it.

    Also, the study includes a relatively small number of women pregnant in a gestational surrogacy arrangement (806), meaning there’s an increased risk for statistical error and limited ability to detect rare outcomes.

    People may use a surrogate to have a baby for a range of reasons.
    Lopolo/Shutterstock

    Ethical questions

    An increasing number of Australians are having children via surrogacy arrangements. This is due to a combination of factors including a decline in adoption, women delaying motherhood, and increased social acceptability of male same-sex parenting.

    Australia only allows altruistic surrogacy, where the woman who agrees to have the baby for others is not paid.

    However, some other countries allow women to be paid to become pregnant for others (commercial surrogacy). Concern regarding the exploitation of women via commercial surrogacy is such that Queensland, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have made it illegal for residents to travel overseas to engage in commercial surrogacy.

    Even so, most Australia children born as a result of surrogacy arrangements are born through overseas commercial surrogacy.

    Despite some limitations, this research indicates increased risks for women becoming pregnant in gestational surrogacy arrangements, and the babies they carry. It seems important the potentially elevated risks should be made clear to women considering carrying and birthing a baby for someone else, and to the prospective parents.

    Considering the rise in surrogacy globally it’s important more research is undertaken on the potential health and other impacts of this practice on women and babies. Health, ethical and human rights implications should inform legislative frameworks, policy and practice.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Surrogacy is booming. But new research suggests these pregnancies could be higher risk for women and babies – https://theconversation.com/surrogacy-is-booming-but-new-research-suggests-these-pregnancies-could-be-higher-risk-for-women-and-babies-239574

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Who’d want to be Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock? On Tuesday she had to do the almost impossible: defend a decision not to cut interest rates at a time when they were being cut in just about every other major industrial nation.

    On Thursday the US Federal Reserve joined the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and central banks in China, Sweden and the European Union in what its officials expect to be a series of cuts, kicking off with a double-header: a cut of 0.50 percentage points instead of the usual 0.25.

    In her press conference after Tuesday’s board meeting Governor Bullock said disinflation was “further advanced” in those countries than it was in Australia.

    Australian interest rates were “restrictive” (high enough to hurt) but were working “broadly as anticipated”.

    While household spending was weaker than had been expected, it would be

    some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.

    But the problem with what she said, both after the meeting and in her statement, is inflation is probably already within the target range.

    Credibility gap

    The Reserve Bank’s target is 2-3%. Inflation hasn’t been there since it surged in 2021 as much of the world came out of lockdowns.

    On Wednesday, the day after Bullock’s announcement, the Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly consumer price index for August. It’s expected to be the first to show inflation back between 2% and 3%.

    Westpac is expecting an annual rate of 2.7%, comfortably back within the target band. When the more-comprehensive quarterly measure is released next month, Westpac is expecting 2.9%.

    If inflation is 2.7%, how can it be too high?

    Bullock squares her view that inflation is not yet moving sustainably towards the target with the reality that it is probably already there by saying she expects it to “pop back up again” when the temporary effect of electricity bill rebates wears off.

    The Commonwealth government announced $3.5 billion worth of rebates in the May budget. They will be applied automatically to electricity bills for each of the next four quarters, and topped by several of the states. In Queensland, they amount to $1,300 per household.

    A staged rollout means the rebates hit bills in only Queensland and West Australia in July and will hit other states in August. The Bureau of Statistics says they took 6.4% off the average national power price in July and Westpac expects them to take off a further 15% in August.

    A permanent 10% increase in the maximum rate of Commonwealth rent assistance delivered last week will put further downward pressure on inflation.

    It’s easy to see why Bullock thinks the temporary measures should be disregarded.

    The RBA says what matters is underlying inflation

    Bullock is directing attention to the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, a measure that excludes sharp movements and gives a better idea of where typical prices are heading.

    At 3.9% for the year to the June quarter, she says that measure is still too high. But it has been falling for each of the past six quarters and is on track to fall to 3.5% in the September quarter. By my way of thinking, that shows inflation is moving “sustainably towards the target range” in the way she says she wants.

    As in the US and the UK and New Zealand and all the other countries with which we compare ourselves, inflation doesn’t need to be actually back to the target before the authorities ease off on high interest rates. If they waited that long they would overshoot and push inflation too low.

    But headline inflation matters in its own right

    In any event, a low headline inflation rate is important in its own right, however it is achieved. It’s the rate the Reserve Bank prints at the top of its website, the rate that’s published in the media and the rate that people experience.

    If inflation is actually low, however that is brought about, shoppers become less tolerant of price rises (something the Reserve Bank says is happening) and less keen to demand high wage rises (something that is also happening).

    They also become less keen to rush out and buy things before their price goes up, something that can perpetuate high inflation.

    Right now we are doing everything but rushing out to push up prices.

    A briefing note prepared by the Australian Council of Social Service ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank board meeting says real household disposable income per capita has fallen by almost 8% since inflation and interest rates began climbing, far more than in the US, the UK, Germany and Canada.

    Bullock is about to get more chances to cut

    There’s a chance the tax cuts that began in July will give spending a bit of a boost but much of whatever extra spending there is will be on imports, and the steadily climbing Australian dollar is making them cheaper by the day.

    The Australian dollar hit a new high for the year of 68.5 US cents on Tuesday on the back of a widening differential between US and Australian interest rates as the US cuts rates.

    Governor Bullock gets two more opportunities to cut rates this year, at the board meeting on Melbourne Cup Tuesday November 5 shortly after news of very low inflation in the September quarter, and on December 9 shortly after news of economic growth likely to show income per person going further backwards.

    There’s a fair chance she will take one of them.

    Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

    ref. No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming – https://theconversation.com/no-rba-rate-cut-yet-but-governor-bullock-is-about-to-find-the-pressure-overwhelming-239603

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Powering Africa: new model compares options for off-grid solar in 43 countries

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Hamish Beath, Research Associate in Societal Transitions, Imperial College London

    Sub-Saharan Africa, home to 80% of the global population without electricity access, is unlikely to reach the United Nations’ goal of access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030.

    The region is significantly behind the rest of the world. Globally, access to electricity increased from 79% of the population in 2000 to 90% in 2019. In sub-Saharan Africa, access to electricity rose from 26% to 47%, and most who don’t have access live in rural areas, according to World Bank data.

    The World Bank predicts that, based on current electricity connection and population growth trends, sub-Saharan Africa will have more than 400 million people unconnected to electricity by 2030.

    A lack of access to reliable electricity has a significant negative impact on living standards. For example, it can limit the provision of quality public services such as healthcare, education and water. It also creates a barrier to access to digital services, holding back participation in an increasingly digital global economy.

    Lack of access is not the only challenge for sub-Saharan African countries. Existing connections are unreliable too. About 43% of Africans had access to electricity that worked “most” or “all” of the time in 2022. Reliability issues are typically more common in rural areas.

    Just two sub-Saharan African countries have electricity grids without significant outages: Angola and Botswana. Outages reduce the benefits electricity offers to households and businesses, and create demand for expensive and typically polluting fuel-run generators.

    Studies have proposed off-grid solar generated electricity as one possible solution for economies with poor electricity access. In some locations, they are the lowest-cost option, and can enable electricity access without building electricity grid infrastructure – transmission and distribution networks.

    Some of these studies, however, may have underestimated the potential benefits of off-grid solar power. This is because they don’t consider the cost impacts of poor reliability or of carbon price schemes.

    I was part of a team of scientists using a new approach to assessing the cost of different energy access options. It combines modelling individual energy systems with spatial data covering large areas. Our approach allows us to put a cost to the reliability and the pollution of different sources of electricity. When you account for these, the relative attractiveness of technologies may change.

    Our research explores the role off-grid solar could play in different scenarios in Africa. It covered 43 countries for which data is available, and that are home to more than 99% of the continent’s population without access. Below, we will highlight two countries, Nigeria and Mozambique.

    Cost of carbon and cost of poor reliability

    Using our new approach, we analyse which parts of each country would find solar to be the cheapest technology. We do this at a fine level of detail. Our scenarios include either a carbon price, or a penalty for poor reliability. We can show what policy would make the greatest impact in a given location.

    Electricity access can be arranged into tiers that combine different levels of wattage, hours of availability, number of disruptions, affordability and so on.

    For our medium electricity demand scenario (tier 3), our modelling suggests that off-grid solar would be cheapest for 65 million more people if you applied a carbon price to the calculation. If you applied a reliability penalty, off-grid solar would be cheapest for 80 million more people.

    Carbon markets are financial markets which put a price on emitting greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. These markets influence the relative cost and shares of different electricity generation technologies. However, the use of carbon credits on the African continent remains limited as they are a relatively new initiative on the continent.

    The reliability of supply is crucial in determining the value of a connection. Poor reliability can lead to reduced security and reduced household income.

    Off-grid solar systems may offer improved reliability when compared to national grid networks.

    To demonstrate our methods and findings more clearly, let’s look at two countries in more detail: Nigeria and Mozambique.

    Nigeria

    Nigeria has an unreliable grid, with service levels worse in rural areas. Our analysis projects that Nigeria will have as many as 55 million households – around 20% of the population – without electricity access in 2030. In our research, we find that off-grid solar would be the cheapest way for connecting between 5% and 60% of these people to electricity.

    But solar’s economic viability versus the traditional grid network depends on the level of demand for electricity. At low electricity usage (tier 2 or 200Wh per day), off-grid solar beats traditional electricity grid networks. It meets the energy needs of a higher proportion of the population (60%) at lower cost.

    The reverse is true when demand for electricity is higher (tier 4 or 3,400Wh per day). Under this scenario, high electricity usage demands traditional electricity grids.

    Poor reliability of national electricity grids is an issue on the continent. When the costs of poor reliability are included in the calculation, solar becomes more competitive. It meets the needs of between 38% and 65% of the 55 million households in Nigeria.

    This finding highlights that to provide reliable access, focusing on off-grid solar may be the best solution. Nigeria is already using subsidies to encourage this.




    Read more:
    Nigeria’s chronic power shortages: mini grids were going to crack the problem for rural people, but they haven’t. Here’s why


    Mozambique

    In Mozambique, we estimate that more than 16 million people (40% of the population) will remain without access to electricity by 2030. As it is for Nigeria, off-grid solar power is cheaper for lower electricity usage levels. Off-grid solar would, by our estimates, be cheapest for between 28% and 88% of the 16 million people, depending on demand levels.

    When carbon pricing is factored in, this increases to 88% from 50%, with the greatest impact seen at higher demand levels. Our research also shows the carbon price levels that are effective at different demand levels, for different parts of the country.

    Due to differences in the costs of different technologies in different places, there is variation in policy effectiveness and thresholds. When considering where carbon credit schemes may be most effective, stakeholders should consider areas highlighted as seeing a shift in technology at the lower price level.




    Read more:
    Mozambique’s unstable and expensive power supply is devastating small businesses – study examines what’s gone wrong


    Targeted policy can boost access and reliability in Africa

    When considering energy policy across a large region, country-specific and localised factors are paramount. We do not pretend to capture all of these in our research. However, our use of spatial data, and country-level demand and supply modelling, tries to move in the right direction.

    Hamish Beath receives funding from UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and Research England GCRF QR Funding, UK.

    ref. Powering Africa: new model compares options for off-grid solar in 43 countries – https://theconversation.com/powering-africa-new-model-compares-options-for-off-grid-solar-in-43-countries-232192

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories: Marwan, or how to find redemption in Cape Town

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Steffen Bo Jensen, Professor, Department of Politics and Society, Aalborg University

    For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics in a comparative perspective. When understood in a nuanced manner that goes beyond the usual stereotypes and Manichean representations, gangs and gangsters arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and understand the world we live in.

    Steffen Jensen recounts the story of Marwan, whose life is in many ways a reflection of the last 75 years of South African history, having had to navigate the violence of apartheid, prison, the Cape Flat drug wars. Central to his narrative are the notions of damnation and redemption.


    I picked up Marwan one cloudy morning in May 2019, from his house in the backstreets of Heideveld, the township Cape Town, South Africa, where I have been conducting fieldwork on gangs on and off for 25 years. While much has changed over the years, the gang scene in Cape Town remains depressingly violent. In one of the other townships where I have been doing fieldwork since 2018, more than 160 have died in the past year. Gangs exist in almost all townships and partly for this reason, Cape Town remains one of the most violent and deadly cities in the world.

    Sixty-year-old Marwan exudes strength as he walks over to my car, and greets me in his light blue Islamic attire. Although not particularly tall, he is well built in a wiry way, and there is an embodied intensity to him that contrasts with his soft-spokenness.

    We are in the middle of Ramadan, and he tells me that he is happy to see me, although he is also very busy, preparing for a wedding with his new, much younger partner, as well as 10 days of prayer in the local mosque.

    We decide to talk in a nearby park, where we begin what will end up being an eight-hour interview. During this time, Marwan leads me through his life in a way that is entirely his own choosing: “It was a Tuesday… I remember it well. I was wearing an orange jacket…”

    A microcosm of South Africa’s recent history

    Marwan’s life is in many ways a microcosm of South Africa’s recent history. It was fundamentally shaped by apartheid, particularly through the introduction of racist laws and policies, which included the displacement of non-white populations from central Cape Town to council housing estates on the outskirts, known as the Cape Flats. It was then also influenced by the instability of the post-apartheid era, characterised by high levels of crime and violence.

    His family was one of the tens of thousands displaced from the Cape Town city centre in the 1960s, leading Marwan to grow up in the difficult environment of the Cape Flats. At the age of 16, in the mid-1970s, he began dealing drugs, quickly acquiring a notorious reputation, allowing him to operate semi-independently of the local gangs.

    Marwan’s story exemplifies how drug dealing has critically impacted local gang structures. Before the mid-1970s, drugs did not play an important role in gang formation. They were mostly self-defence gangs protecting neighbourhoods against the hostile environment of the new housing estates. However, when the Mandrax drug was introduced around 1975, it radically transformed the nature of the gangs and their use of violence.

    Life with the Terrible Joosters

    Marwan joined one of the local gangs in Heideveld, the Terrible Joosters, and began dealing drugs. While the local gang in Heideveld gained in importance, he started making a name for himself as a robie, someone that focuses on robberies and break-ins. He excelled and joined city-wide criminal networks outside Heideveld, located in neighbouring Bridge Town, where the American gang became increasingly dominant. It was the conflict with the Americans that was partly instrumental in sending him to jail. In the interview, he describes a year of madness that began with his shooting a police officer. It then descended into increased drug abuse and gang violence, including shooting a member of the same criminal network, because, he said, the man had sold them out to the Americans. As a result, in 1982, Marwan received a long prison sentence.

    Marwan is no stranger to prisons. He had been in and out of them since his late teens, but this was his longest sentence. Like his involvement with drugs before, his prison trajectory reflected the changing nature of Cape Town’s gang dynamics.

    The relationship between prison gangs and street gangs has been complicated since the emergence of both in the 1940s. Prisons in South Africa are partly controlled by an intricate gang system with its own belief structure, which includes a perceived resistance to apartheid and racist regimes. The system also enforces control through the so-called numbers, referring to the three main gangs, 26, 27 and 28.

    The numbers represent distinct gangs, each with a specific role within the prison hierarchy. This hierarchy is enforced through strict codes and significant violence against each other, guards, and non-gang members. Through his connections with gang-affiliated individuals and drug dealers both inside and outside the prison, Marwan quickly joined the 26 gang and rose through the ranks to become one of its leaders.

    Gangsters often have a sell-by date

    After Marwan left prison in 1998, his life became intertwined with the Cape Flats “gang wars” of the late 1990s and early 2000s. This city-wide war, involving his old enemies in the Americans, was much more brutal than the ones he had fought earlier on. He was horrified.

    He complained about the stupidity of the youngsters: “If they get a name, they are a gang and they will die”, he told me back in 1999. There is a generational dimension to this. Most gangs last about 10 years. The gangs Marwan saw in the late 1990s were descendants – often sons – of the gangsters of Marwan’s generation.

    Many gangsters face an inevitable expiration date, often ending up dead, imprisoned, or suffering from serious health issues due to a life of violence, hardship, and drug abuse. However, some do manage to successfully leave behind the world of gangs and crime.

    In his mid-40s, increasingly burned out, Marwan underwent a religious conversion that allowed him to “leave” his criminal life behind.

    Marwan’s life story is both a violent and strangely moral tale of comradery, solidarity, justice and of outwitting the racist apartheid state under the most arduous circumstances. Though not necessarily representative, it provides a privileged view into the Capetonian underworld and how it animated and was animated by political structures.

    How I became a gang war chronicler

    Our meeting in 2019 reminded me of my first encounter with Marwan, 20 years before, in December 1998.

    He had just been released from prison after serving a 19-year sentence for multiple charges, including robbery, violence, drug dealing, and shooting a police officer. He was the brother-in-law of my best friend and confidante in Cape Town, Shahiedah.

    I was conducting my doctoral fieldwork on gang dynamics, and over the following months, as the ongoing gang wars in the Cape Flats escalated, Marwan assumed a somewhat distant yet pivotal role as a guardian, helping me navigate the violent and unpredictable ganglands of post-apartheid Cape Town.

    I once told Marwan that I planned to interview members of their rival gang, the Americans. Marwan – and nearly all of my other contacts – lived in New Yorker territory. The war between the New Yorkers and the Americans was a local manifestation of a larger conflict over control of the drug market in a city going through a huge turmoil: transitioning from a closed environment due to strict apartheid to opening up post-1994.

    The transition produced a volatile environment in which the transforming state struggled to find its feet, not least because of the wave of crime and violence. Murder rates soared and bombings became the order of the day. Seared in my memory was a Cape Argus newspaper article published on January 2, 1999, which quantified both the violence and the police’s impotence in the previous year: 668 attacks, 118 arrests, 0 convictions.

    This created an atmosphere of fear and unpredictability.

    Marwan had heard about my upcoming interview through the local rumour machine. He looked at me, and said gravely, without any context or explanation: ‘In a conflict like this, you cannot stay neutral. Everybody must choose sides’. ‘You too?’, I asked. ‘Also me. Everyone!’.

    What I understood was that I wouldn’t be able to offer a “neutral” narrative, I had to tell the story from the perspective of one gang. That day, I became a chronicler of the war from the (ultimately losing) side of the New Yorker gang…

    A story of redemption

    Although we chatted regularly in his house, I never managed to formally interview Marwan when I was in Cape Town in 1998-99. He was always on his way somewhere – to the shops, the doctor, his mother or he simply stood me up. I saw him from time to time during subsequent visits in the 2000s and 2010s, but only to greet him and see how he was doing.

    Hence, when I returned to South Africa in 2019 in the context of the GANGS project, I was determined to not let him escape me this time, and get him to open up about his life.

    And what a storyteller he was. But beyond the rich content of his tale and the wider insights it offered about gang dynamics in Cape Town, I was most struck by Marwan’s ability to maintain complete control over his narrative.

    He would often chide me whenever I tried to hurry his story along, especially when he got caught up in small details or when I wanted him to move on to a new event. “I want to tell it right,” he would say. “Wait, I’ll get to that when the time is right.”

    At one point, he described a court case he was involved in, after being accused of shooting a policeman:

    “You can have the best lawyer or the best advocate, but it’s what you say and the answers you give that makes you guilty or not guilty. That’s the main thing. How you tell your story. What I thought, what I was going through in my mind – everything you describe, so the judge can see your picture. A story without a picture is not the truth.”

    What insight, I thought. And in many ways, his constant production of images applied to the entire story that he told me. The way that Marwan told his story was as a narrative of redemption and salvation. The critical turning point in his story was how, a few years after having been released from prison, he had planned a heist with some friends, but suddenly refused to carry it out.

    “They [came by] and wanted to confirm the time we were going. I said, ‘You know what, I’ve changed my mind.’ ‘What do you mean you changed your mind?’ ‘No, I changed my mind. You two can go. But I am not going.’ ‘Why?’ I said, ‘There is no reason, but I just feel I am not going anymore.’ And they left. And I’ve never saw them again.”

    Marwan was convinced that his last-minute change of heart saved his life, as both friends ended up dead over the next couple of months. One was found hanged and the other was found in the trunk of a burnt-out car. For Marwan, even if he did not realise it at the time, felt that he had been “warned by Allah” not to go. This marked Marwan’s turn toward religion. He finally accepted Allah into his heart, and turned his life around, leaving his gang years behind.

    While I learned from interviews with his family that Marwan’s decision to leave behind a life of crime was only partially true – he continued dealing drugs and was involved in some gruesome acts of violence – he presented his moment of religious conversion as the pivotal point in his life, a moment of redemption. From that point on, his narrative focused on his piety and the long hours he spent at the mosque, portraying himself as a growingly accepted, though still somewhat suspicious, member of the Muslim community.

    Strong bones

    Do Marwan’s relapses into crime suggest that his narrative of redemption was false, and that he was merely manipulating me? It’s possible. This is always a consideration in interviews like these, particularly given the ambiguous and controversial nature of many of Marwan’s activities over the years. However, instead of viewing his story as a web of lies and misrepresentations, we might interpret these conflicting incidents as evidence of the co-existence of different moral narratives.

    A key moral concept on the Cape Flats is the notion of “sterk bene” or “strong bones”. According to Elaine Salo, this is the ability to endure humiliations, violence, and the injustices of a racialized society. The term originated in prisons to describe the kind of “hard man” toughness that Marwan projected, even after his religious conversion. This strength is often associated with being a criminal.

    In this context, Marwan’s redemption narrative and his display of “strong bones” can be seen as two culturally intelligible moral frameworks that exist in parallel – and at times in conflict – with one another. Perhaps Marwan would argue that, to survive on the Cape Flats, you need both: redemption and strong bones

    Steffen Bo Jensen is a senior researcher at DIGNITY-Danish Institute Against Torture and a professor at the Department of Politics and Society, Aalborg University in Denmark

    ref. Gangs’stories: Marwan, or how to find redemption in Cape Town – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-marwan-or-how-to-find-redemption-in-cape-town-223902

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mass animal extinctions: our new tool can show why large mammals – like the topi – are in decline

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Joseph Ogutu, Senior Researcher and Statistician, University of Hohenheim

    We could be witnessing the sixth mass extinction at an alarming rate worldwide. It’s marked by the rapid loss of species due to human activities like habitat destruction, pollution and climate change. Unlike previous mass extinctions, which were caused by natural events, this one is driven by human impact – like growing populations, pollution, invasive plant species and human-wildlife conflict.

    Large mammals are especially at risk, in Africa as elsewhere. For instance, nearly 60% of wild herbivores – such as elephants and hippos – are already threatened with extinction.

    Effective conservation and recovery strategies are needed. To develop them, you need to know how the population of a certain animal is doing and, if it is in decline, what’s causing it.

    One tool that’s useful here is a model, using biology, maths, statistics and computer software.

    The problem is that there aren’t enough of these realistic, effective models for large mammals. There’s a shortage of appropriate data and the models are complex to build.

    I was part of a team that developed a model to help fill that void. It’s the first to account for how large mammal populations interact with each other and their environment while also incorporating their detailed biology. It draws on valuable existing data and can be adapted for various wildlife species.

    We tested the model on populations of east Africa’s topi (a large antelope). From the results we’re able to deduce that the drivers of the topi’s massive population decline were habitat loss, poaching and killing by predators.

    Knowing what’s driving population declines is extremely valuable. Large mammals play a critical role in ecosystems. Changes to their populations will also affect many other species and could cause the extinction of connected species.

    How the model works

    Our model combines different types of data, like total population size from aerial surveys and ground vehicle counts, with predicted data on population figures. This allows us to estimate and track population trends that can’t be captured by just one data type. It considers factors like animal age, sex, gestation length, weaning period, calves per birth per year, birth rates, survival, and environmental influences like rainfall and temperature.

    Essentially, the model starts with educated guesses, then updates these guesses as it processes more observed data.

    The model can tell what causes a decline in two ways.

    First, it finds out which factors (such as rainfall) have a strong negative impact on things like birth rates, survival or recruitment, and shows exactly how they affect each other.

    Second, it lets us use simulations to see how changing one of these factors, while keeping others unchanged, changes the population by influencing its key characteristics (such as birth rate).

    Testing the model on topi

    We tested our model on the topi population found in Kenya, Tanzania and other African countries. We chose the topi because it’s a large herbivore in decline.

    The topi is an elegant antelope weighing between 91kg and 147kg, with a long face and uniquely twisted horns. One of the largest remaining topi populations in east Africa occurs in the Greater Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem, which straddles the border between Kenya and Tanzania.

    Kenya’s Directorate of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing has, since 1977, monitored numbers and distribution of topi, and other large wild herbivores and livestock, using aerial surveys in the country’s rangelands, covering 88% of Kenya.

    Based on this data, we can see that topi numbers have declined persistently and strikingly (by 84.5%) in Kenya’s Masai Mara ecosystem between 1977 and 2022, even those in protected conservation areas.

    This decline indicates a high risk of extinction if the trend persists. This is a serious concern, since other antelope species, such as the roan, have gone extinct in the Mara in recent decades.

    But the causes haven’t been fully established.

    We ran the aerial and ground survey data into the model in a computer on a monthly interval. This approach allows the model to capture patterns in trends and dynamics on a monthly scale. It allows us to see the distribution of births per month, the timing of births, the degree to which multiple females in a population give birth around the same time, the proportion of females in a population that give birth, the total number of individuals of each age and sex in each month, and the proportion of young that survive to adulthood.

    The model starts with initial guesses based on existing knowledge, and refines the guesses as it processes more actual data.

    It produces results that match the observed patterns of population decline, seasonality of births and how many animals survive to become juveniles or to adulthood.

    Based on these findings, we see that the decline in the topi population is driven by a combination of low adult female numbers, low newborn survival and low recruitment into the adult class because most young (over 95%) die before they become adults.

    Based on the model, we attribute these changes to impacts from environmental changes, human activities and predation. For instance, since adult animals are the least sensitive to climatic changes, this suggests other factors – such as habitat loss or deterioration, poaching or high predation rates – are likely contributing to the decline.

    The new model enhances our understanding of large herbivore population dynamics besides confirming existing knowledge.

    By combining different kinds of data from different sources, the model helps estimate and track important population details that one type of data alone can’t show. For example, for the first time data is captured that can track the total number of topi of each age and sex in each month, how many adult female topi are ready to conceive and the various stages of pregnancy. This method also estimates changes in the total topi population by age and sex in all four zones of the Mara, even in zones without direct ground age and sex data.

    Refining and enhancing the model

    The team is now extending the model to include more features (like the influence of livestock numbers), make it user friendly, apply it to more wildlife species and assess the effectiveness of ongoing and planned management actions.

    Improving our understanding of the drivers of large mammal losses will ensure that the right conservation actions are taken. It’ll also ensure resources aren’t wasted because solutions could include investing in major infrastructure, changing wildlife conservation and livestock production policies, changing law enforcement and rehabilitation of wildlife habitats – all of which are costly.

    Joseph Ogutu has received funding from the German Research Foundation and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. He is affiliated with the non-profits: One Mara-Research Hub (OMRH) and the Greater Serengeti Conservation Society. This research was partly funded by the World Wide Fund for Nature–East Africa Program and Friends of Conservation.

    ref. Mass animal extinctions: our new tool can show why large mammals – like the topi – are in decline – https://theconversation.com/mass-animal-extinctions-our-new-tool-can-show-why-large-mammals-like-the-topi-are-in-decline-233882

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new wave of Venezuelan refugees would threaten a humanitarian crisis – Latin America could learn from Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Omar Hammoud Gallego, Assistant Professor in Public Policy, Durham University

    Latin American countries are bracing themselves for a wave of Venezuelan migrants. Sebastian Delgado C / Shutterstock

    Venezuela’s disputed election results have thrown the country into chaos. The authoritarian leader of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was declared the winner in a contested vote in July and, since then, has used state violence to inhibit any hint of protest.

    The crackdown has led to the deaths of more than 20 people at the hands of Venezuela’s security services and pro-government armed groups known as colectivos, while more than 2,400 people have been thrown in jail. And the opposition candidate who is widely believed to have won the vote, Edmundo González, has fled to Spain after being threatened with arrest.

    This swift escalation has sparked widespread concern throughout Latin America and beyond. Another wave of migration may be imminent, adding to the nearly 8 million people who have already left Venezuela since 2015. Countries across Latin America, especially Colombia, have expressed concern that a new surge of displaced Venezuelans might overwhelm public services and fuel political tensions.

    It is possible that governments in the region may respond by imposing stricter border controls to stem the flow of migrants. But past experience shows that this move would both be ineffective and harmful.

    Venezuela is a nation that was once known for its vast oil wealth. However, it has endured a prolonged period of economic and political instability. The country’s democratic backsliding began under former president Hugo Chávez in the early 2000s, but it worsened dramatically after he died in 2013 and Maduro came to power.

    Maduro’s rule has been marked by rampant inflation, a 75% reduction in GDP, and widespread political repression. These conditions have led to one of the largest migrations in modern history. Nearly a quarter of Venezuela’s population have fled their homes, primarily to other South American countries.




    Read more:
    Venezuelan migrants are boosting economic growth in South America, says research


    Initially, many Latin American nations coordinated their response. Governments came together in Ecuador to sign the Quito Declaration in 2018, for example, which committed them to ensuring the safe and regular migration of Venezuelan citizens.

    However, this cooperative spirit soon began to unravel. Chile, Ecuador and Peru made it much harder for ordinary Venezuelans to enter their countries legally by introducing visa restrictions by the middle of 2019. These restrictions replaced earlier policies that allowed entry to Ecuador and Peru with just an ID card.

    The effectiveness of these restrictions has been the subject of much debate. In a recent study, I compared the experiences of countries that introduced restrictions with those of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, which kept their borders open.

    My findings suggest that restricting migration in South America has not prevented it. Migration has instead been driven underground, with significant costs both for migrants and host countries.

    The introduction of visa restrictions led to a 38% increase in the number of Venezuelan migrants who crossed borders via unauthorised routes, and a 41% rise in migrants without a regular residency permit in their destination country. The number of Venezuelan migrants who lacked legal status in their host country also jumped from less than one-in-five to more than half.

    This shift towards irregularity has had consequences. For example, I found that falling into irregularity led to a shift in migrants’ priorities away from seeking employment and towards trying to regularise their migratory status.

    There is also no evidence to suggest that migrants redirected their journeys to South American countries with more open policies. In fact, the composition of migrants remained largely unchanged after the introduction of restrictions.

    Lessons from Europe

    Before the election, a poll conducted by Venezuelan firm Meganálisis indicated that around 40% of Venezuelans would consider leaving the country if Maduro remained in power. This represents a potentially staggering increase in migration, even if we account for the gap between intention and action.

    To avoid exacerbating an already critical situation, countries in the region must adopt pragmatic policies that prioritise safe and regular migration. And they should offer regular status to migrants that already reside there.

    Europe’s response to the mass displacement caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers lessons that Latin American governments should not ignore.

    In 2022, the EU coordinated efforts to allow Ukrainian refugees free and safe movement throughout Europe, while also guaranteeing their right to work and residency, as well as access to health and educational services.




    Read more:
    Ukraine war: a year on, here’s what life has been like for refugees in the UK


    Despite the massive scale of this displacement, at over 6 million refugees, there was no widely reported “Ukrainian refugee crisis” because of this cooperative approach.

    Ukrainian refugees entering Romania after crossing the border.
    Pazargic Liviu / Shutterstock

    While the refugee status of Ukrainians in Europe is guaranteed up to February 2026 (and can be extended if the European Council agrees), the story is quite different for displaced Venezuelans. Despite being considered refugees by the UN and the laws of most Latin American countries, governments in the region have largely decided not to recognise them as such.

    Nevertheless, Latin American governments should pursue a strategy similar to the one we have seen in Europe. This must include renewing their commitment to the principles outlined in the Quito Declaration, as well as establishing common standards across the region for the reception of Venezuelan migrants.

    These standards should include the possibility of allowing Venezuelans to cross borders using only their ID cards, as is still the case in Argentina and Brazil, given how costly passports and other travel documents are for many Venezuelans.

    Such requirements would significantly reduce the likelihood of irregular migration and, together with mass regularisation programmes, have a positive impact on the integration of Venezuelans into their host countries.

    As Venezuela continues to grapple with political and economic collapse, the international community – and particularly neighbouring Latin American nations – must be prepared for another surge of migration.

    But the response should not be to close borders or restrict access. Governments must instead coordinate to ensure safe, regular and humane migration routes.

    The future of millions of Venezuelans, as well as the stability of Latin America, depends on the region’s ability to manage this crisis effectively.

    Omar Hammoud Gallego has received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council to conduct this research.

    ref. A new wave of Venezuelan refugees would threaten a humanitarian crisis – Latin America could learn from Europe – https://theconversation.com/a-new-wave-of-venezuelan-refugees-would-threaten-a-humanitarian-crisis-latin-america-could-learn-from-europe-238345

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer expresses interest in Italy’s migration approach – how different is it from the Rwanda plan?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chiara Graziani, Assistant professor, Law, Bocconi University

    One of Keir Starmer’s first actions as UK prime minister was to put an end to the controversial Rwanda asylum scheme. The plan, introduced by his predecessors, aimed to deter small boat crossings by sending those who reached the UK to Rwanda to have their claims assessed.

    So it was surprising to many observers to see Starmer visit Italy for a meeting with Giorgia Meloni about Italy’s handling of asylum seekers through an arrangement with Albania. At first glance, this approach is similar to the Rwanda plan.

    Both are examples of “externalisation” of immigration. This consists of collaborating with other countries to manage migration, often by moving immigrants who arrive on the soil of a certain country to the territory of another country. Forms of externalisation are used by several other countries, such as Australia, Canada and the US.

    The UK pursued this approach through its Rwanda scheme, under which anyone arriving irregularly in the UK to claim asylum would be moved to Rwanda to have their claims processed by Rwandan officials. In exchange, the UK had agreed to give Rwanda nearly £500 million in development funding, plus additional funds for each person moved.

    The policy faced serious political opposition and legal challenges, and ultimately never got off the ground before the general election.


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    Italy’s partnership with Albania is different in some ways. Under a protocol signed by both countries, asylum seekers rescued at sea while trying to reach Italy will be moved to Albania for their applications to be examined. This will take place in processing centres that Italy will finance and build for this purpose.

    In those areas, however, Italian – and not Albanian – law will be applied and Italian authorities will be competent for the implementation of the process. Under the Rwanda scheme, Rwandan officials (and law) would have governed the asylum procedure once seekers were moved there. This was part of why the UK supreme court said it was not a “safe” country and ruled the plan unlawful.

    Additionally, successful applicants will be granted asylum in Italy, while the Rwanda plan would have only allowed them to stay in Rwanda (not come to the UK).




    Read more:
    Is the Rwanda plan acting as a deterrent? Here’s what the evidence says about this approach


    The Albanian programme is not up and running yet, but Starmer has praised Meloni’s “remarkable progress” in reducing irregular arrivals to Italy by 60%.

    In recent years, Italy has enacted other measures to manage migration by paying North African countries to stop illegal migration to Italy. Italy financed the construction of a maritime area where Tunisian boats can intervene and bring migrants to Tunisian soil.

    Similarly, Italy has outsourced search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard, in exchange for funding to enhance Libyan migration infrastructure and a commitment to improve conditions of reception centres.

    However, human rights groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have raised serious concerns about these arrangements. In both cases, they say, reception centres amount to fully fledged detention centres, under poor conditions potentially amounting to inhumane and degrading treatment. Meloni has called such accusations “completely groundless”.

    An investigation by The Guardian newspaper, published after Starmer’s visit to Italy, detailed harsh abuse of migrants by Tunisian coast guard and border patrol. Human rights groups have been raising concerns for years about the Libyan Coast Guard’s treatment of migrants in distress at sea, including potentially conducting illegal “pushback” operations, which involve pushing boats back across a border they have crossed.




    Read more:
    The EU’s outsourced migration control is violent, expensive and ineffective


    Potential hurdles

    Starmer has said he is “interested” in Italy’s plan with Albania, and has expressed openness to other forms of externalisation. He also wants the UK to work closer with other European states to cooperate on migration.

    One positive side to the Italian model is undoubtedly that Italy does not waive its legal jurisdiction. Italian law applies in the Albanian processing centres, although conflicts with Albanian law (whose jurisdiction can’t be eliminated totally) may arise. If the UK incorporates this aspect in any future plan, it could mitigate a key weak point of the Rwanda plan.

    The Italian scheme also explicitly guarantees that the UN refugee commissioner oversees the process taking place in Albania, in theory ensuring that international human rights standards are met. However, it is certainly possible that these safeguards might be overlooked in the practical enforcement of the agreement, for example because Italian law will need to be applied by officers of a foreign country.

    It is worth nothing that Italy and the UK currently have very different geopolitical positions. Italy is an EU member state, and bound by European asylum laws and standards. This too could cause future legal issues should any of Italy’s actions in Albania violate EU law.

    Any externalisation policy will always involve balancing several interests. First and foremost, the need to comply with human rights standards, but also the fair handling of migration, and the necessity to avoid some countries taking more people than they can support.

    These pressures will be different for the UK than for Italy, and must be carefully considered. Just as the migration of people is a thorny issue, so too is the migration of policy.

    Chiara Graziani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Starmer expresses interest in Italy’s migration approach – how different is it from the Rwanda plan? – https://theconversation.com/starmer-expresses-interest-in-italys-migration-approach-how-different-is-it-from-the-rwanda-plan-223405

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: La Maison captures the drama, intrigue and intense rivalry of the luxury fashion world

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Elizabeth Kealy-Morris, Senior Lecturer and Researcher in Dress and Belonging, Manchester Fashion Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University

    With the release of dramas Cristóbal Balenciaga, The New Look and Becoming Karl Lagerfeld, the fashion drama miniseries has become a staple for streaming television in 2024.

    The latest offering, French-language drama La Maison on Apple TV, captures the essence of the drama and intrigue surrounding Maison Ledu, a fictional luxury haute couture house controlled by the Ledu family.

    The dynamics between key characters are well outlined, and explore universal themes such as love, power, ambition and betrayal, as well as a longing for connection, acceptance and identity. In this way La Maison has little to do with apparel and clothing in their materiality: the camera does not linger over sketches or runway collections. The series, instead, engages with fashion on a more abstract level, highlighting how it intersects with broader human concerns.

    Vincent Ledu (Lambert Wilson) is the celebrated designer whose scandal threatens to the future of Maison Ledu. His racist tirade against a wealthy Korean client was captured by catering staff at a pubic function and posted on social media by Ledu’s scheming nephew in a bid to ruin his uncle’s reputation.

    Perle Foster (Amira Casar) is Vincent’s former principal model and inspiration who, despite her lasting attachment to Vincent, is crucial in the house’s post-scandal revival. Paloma Castel (Zita Hanrot) is the orphaned mixed-heritage daughter of Vincent’s long-time gay lover. Neither were accepted into the family and this tension of class, race, and sexual orientation difference is central to the plot throughout the series.

    The character of Paloma, in her early 30s, represents millenial indifference to tradition, hierarchy and heritage. We meet her in the first episode as the co-designer of a Berlin-based luxury eco-focused ready-to-wear brand. It’s marking a milestone with its first runway show at Paris Fashion Week with other brands’ deadstock (unsold inventory) forming the runway collection.

    The trailer for La Maison.

    In a bid to ensure the Ledu brand makes radical shifts in creative leadership after the racism scandal, Perle seeks to sideline Vincent and draw Paloma into Maison Ledu as the next-generation designer who will bring innovation and hope to Maison’s restoration. Diane Rovel (Carole Bouquet), the iron-fisted CEO and matriarch of the Rovel Luxury Group, represents the archetype of the fashion conglomerate within fashion markets, controlled by the monetary interests of anonymous shareholders. Viewers learn early that her acquisition plans for Maison Ledu are driven by strategic interest and personal vendetta.

    The luxury fashion market

    The series effectively sets up the central conflict, the stakes involved and the potential for dramatic and strategic manoeuvres. It paints a vivid picture of the internal and external pressures faced by Maison Ledu as it struggles to navigate its crisis, a problem that has notably rocked actual luxury fashion houses in recent years. An interesting aspect of the series is the contemporary understanding of the role social media plays in creating spectacle that brings people together as well as divides.

    The luxury fashion market seeks to protect and extend agreed assumptions of how such brands function via rarity, exclusivity and uniqueness to add value to their brand DNA, products and businesses. Luxury brands must ensure coherence between values, narratives, highly skilled craft and artistic techniques, with space for both tradition and innovation. By integrating these elements harmoniously, a brand can sustain its luxury status and build a lasting impression of excellence and exclusivity.

    Luxury fashion, clothing and apparel markets depend on the objects they design becoming status symbols. But they also rely on the allure, appeal, imagination and magic promised through fashion stories that are told through photography and videography. This latest AppleTV+ fashion drama is released against the backdrop of shifting consumer expectations in the luxury sector, particularly in the wake of the COVID pandemic.

    There has been a transformative shift from traditional “show-and-tell” marketing to more immersive and interactive brand experiences. Consumers now seek to “join and experience” luxury brands rather than merely observe – and this is driving brands to create engaging content that extends beyond the product itself. This evolution has given rise to innovative strategies, including online videos, interactive events and sophisticated uses of technology to enhance post-purchase engagement.

    The rise of the fashion series is a direct response to these changing consumer preferences. By integrating high-quality media narratives with brand storytelling, these series offer a novel avenue for brands to convey their history and ethos, creating a platform for the fashion industry to captivate audiences and deepen their connection with the brand narrative.

    As streaming platforms continue to gain prominence, the collaboration between fashion houses and media producers is likely to expand. This means that in the future, the intersection of fashion and storytelling will become increasingly integral to brand identity and consumer connection.

    So while both Maison Ledu and Rovel Luxury Group are fictitious brands, shows like La Maison as a general marketing tool for real-world fashion houses and brands. Meanwhile the location of Paris for this series is testament to that city as the global centre of haute couture – and the stakes involved in it remaining so.



    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


    Elizabeth Kealy-Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. La Maison captures the drama, intrigue and intense rivalry of the luxury fashion world – https://theconversation.com/la-maison-captures-the-drama-intrigue-and-intense-rivalry-of-the-luxury-fashion-world-239233

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kaos hinges on prophecies – historian explains the real oracles that inspired the Netflix show

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ellie Mackin Roberts, Research fellow, University of Bristol

    This article contains spoilers for series one of Kaos.

    Central to the plot of Netflix’s new series, Kaos, are four prophecies. In the lore of the series, all humans are given a prophecy, and no two can be the same. There’s just one problem – all four important prophecies in the show are identical:

    A line appears

    The order wanes

    The family falls

    and Kaos reigns.

    Each of the prophecy’s four recipients – Zeus (Jeff Goldblum), Riddy (Aurora Perrineau), Caeneus (Misia Butler) and Ari (Leila Farzad) – interprets, and therefore acts upon, the prophecy in a way that makes sense to their own lives. Their connected fates highlight the series’s theme of interconnected destinies and the inescapable nature of prophecy.

    By the end of the first series, three of the four lines of the prophecy have come true. A vertical wrinkle appears on Zeus’s forehead, driving his obsession with instilling fear of the gods into mortals once more. A hierarchy shift ends the season with Prometheus sitting on Zeus’s throne, which exemplifies the order waning. The families of each of the three mortal recipients fall apart.

    Watching the show, you may have understood the prophecies differently. After all, prophecy is open to interpretation. Or, is it?

    Priestess of Delphi by John Collier (1891), depicting Pythia.
    Art Gallery of South Australia

    In Kaos, the Fates (who the ancient Greeks called the Moirai) are responsible for making prophecies about the gods and their followers. There’s Clotho (Ché), who spins the thread of life, Lachesis (Suzy Eddie Izzard), who measures out the thread and Atropos (Sam Buttery), who cuts it off, marking the end of life.

    In ancient Greek mythology, the Moirai controlled the destiny of men and – in some instances – gods, but they were not responsible for making prophecies. This task fell to the gods, usually Apollo and Zeus, who made prophecies in response to questions people asked.

    As real people couldn’t speak to the gods directly, they went to religious officials known as oracles. The Delphic Oracle, associated with Apollo, god of music and healing as well as prophecy, was the most famous and prestigious of these oracles.

    Also known as the Pythia, she was Apollo’s high priestess and was the one who delivered the prophecies (numerous women fulfilled the role over the years). Ancient people believed the Pythia to be directly inspired by Apollo, and her words were taken to be coming from him.

    We do not fully understand how this process worked, though there have been suggestions that the Pythia went into a trance through chewing laurel leaves, which were sacred to Apollo. Another theory suggests trances were induced through toxic gasses entering the room within the temple she worked in, through a natural fissure in the rock.




    Read more:
    Hidden women of history: the priestess Pythia at the Delphic Oracle, who spoke truth to power


    Prophecies in Kaos

    It is from literary reports of oracles from Delphi that the format of Kaos’s prophecies derives.

    Although historical oracles are usually not poetic, those from literary accounts of history, such as Herodotus’s The Histories, are often presented in hexameter (a kind of poetic metrical meter consisting of six parts per line).

    One famous oracle was reportedly given to the Athenians when they were preparing to fight off the Persians:

    But a wall made of wood does farsighted Zeus to Tritogenes grant

    Alone and unravaged, to help you and your children.

    The Athenians debated the meaning of these words, just as the characters in Kaos consider the interpretations of their own prophecies. They decided that it meant one of two things: that Athens would be fine because the Acropolis used to be surrounded by hedgerows, or that they should build a fleet of ships to be a “wooden wall” against the enemy.

    Themistokles, the main proponent of the second reading, won out and the fleet was built. Athens faced the Persian fleet at the battle of Salamis (an island off the coast of Athens) in 480BC and won, therefore, in their eyes, proving that this reading of the prophecy was correct.

    Interpreting prophecy

    In Kaos, show creator Charlie Covell has presented something very true to the spirit of prophecy in ancient Greek history and mythology – even while subverting the form that prophecy takes.

    In ancient Greece, Zeus couldn’t have received an oracular prophecy, as all prophecy was thought to originate from him. But he was subject to the destinies cast by the Moirai. For example, in the Iliad, Zeus is unable to save his mortal son, Sarpedon, from his fate (dying by the hand of Patroclus) – it is ultimately out of his control.

    In Kaos, through misunderstanding, interpretation and reinterpretation, the four recipients of the Fates’ prophecy each play a crucial role in its fulfilment – but only when they (and we) read that prophecy in our own ways.

    The prophecies of ancient Greece could later be revealed to be incorrectly interpreted. When Croesus, king of Lydia, was told that if he went to war he would destroy a great kingdom, he interpreted that as the Persian kingdom, but it turned out to be his own.

    So too might our understanding of the prophecy in Kaos turn out to be a misinterpretation. By expertly weaving the Moirai and oracles into the narrative, Kaos emphasises the crucial role of fate in reshaping the destinies of people and events, emphasising their interconnectedness. In doing so, the show reflects the ancient Greek belief in the power and inescapable nature of prophecy.



    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


    Ellie Mackin Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Kaos hinges on prophecies – historian explains the real oracles that inspired the Netflix show – https://theconversation.com/kaos-hinges-on-prophecies-historian-explains-the-real-oracles-that-inspired-the-netflix-show-238833

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The science of polarisation: our model shows what happens when political opponents lose their personal connection

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Schweighofer, Assistant Professor in Media and Communication, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University

    Bob Korn/Shutterstock

    What do immigration, inheritance taxation and cannabis legalisation have in common? Not much, actually. Yet if we know somebody’s stance on one of these issues, we can make a good guess about their view on the others.

    Politics often seems to work in one dimension: parties and politicians are located on a spectrum stretching from from far left to far right. Knowing someone’s opinion on a single wedge issue is often enough to place them on this ideological dimension, which in turn makes it possible to predict their positions on other issues. And in countries such as the US we’ve seen more and more people polarised into opposing political camps at either end of this spectrum.

    One-dimensional politics can seem as natural to us as an apple falling from a tree – it’s simply how we think about politics. But just like gravity, the mysterious force shaping our politics in this way does warrant a scientific explanation.

    My colleagues and I wanted to understand how people end up so profoundly divided, and the study we published earlier this year proposes a model for how it might work. It suggests the less we are able to separate politics from personal relations, the more polarised we become.

    This is more than just an academic matter. If politics is reduced to a single ideological dimension it can keep us from finding innovative solutions to our most urgent problems.

    If, for example, the best solution to a housing crisis were a combination of deregulation and public investment, it might not be possible to enact if each half of the solution were rejected by one side of the political spectrum. That makes understanding how politics can become so polarised important on a very practical level.

    The problem is that, no matter how far we look into the past, we overwhelmingly find politics organised along one main dimension of ideological conflict: before left v right, it was Catholics v Protestants, Roundheads v Cavaliers, all the way back to Optimates v Populares in ancient Rome.

    The issues may have changed, but the basic dichotomy has remained stable. This makes it very difficult to investigate the origins of one-dimensional politics. After all, we can’t experiment with whole societies – at least not in real life.

    Simulating societies

    To overcome this limitation, we decided to opt for an unusual approach. We created virtual societies, each populated by a multitude of simulated people, known as agents.

    Each agent had a variety of opinions, represented as coordinates in a space with several dimensions. We didn’t give specific meanings to the coordinates or the dimensions, but you can think of them as representing disconnected issues like defence spending, railway nationalisation or abortion rights.

    At the start of each simulation, the agents’ positions were purely random and not organised along a single ideological dimension of left versus right. But over time, the agents interacted and influenced each other, organising themselves into new collective states.

    These simulated societies therefore provided us with a testbed for different theories used in political science, such as the assumption that people are rational, to see whether they could explain one-dimensional politics and the emergence of political polarisation.

    To do this, we translated these theories into computational protocols that governed the agents’ interactions and the way they adapted their opinions. We then checked whether these protocols were enough to trigger the emergence of a single ideological dimension.

    Initially, we modelled our agents as rational decision makers in the tradition of mainstream political science. When encountering other agents, they would either meet them halfway, or reject them, But either way, this did not give rise to a single ideological dimension. Agents would either converge on a consensus or remain scattered.

    However, politics isn’t a purely rational affair. It’s often characterised by gut feelings and anger. But political science hasn’t always been successful in integrating emotion into decision-making models. So for inspiration we looked to one of the founders of social psychology.

    In the 1950s, Austrian-born psychologist Fritz Heider coined the term cognitive balance theory, which claims that people strive for consistency in their mental patterns. For example, we find it disconcerting when two of our friends hate each other, or a friend is in love with someone we despise. Similarly, we try to avoid disagreeing with people we like just as much as we avoid agreeing with people we dislike.

    We translated this balance mechanism into our simulation. When two of our agents encountered each other, they first determined how much they agreed or disagreed on various political issues. Then, they translated agreement into sympathy and disagreement into dislike. Finally, they adjusted their issue positions in a way that increased consistency.

    If they met someone with whom they mostly agreed, they adjusted their opinions to defuse the remaining disagreements. In the opposite case, they tried to make their disagreement stronger.

    All this happened in tiny increments every time agents met. But through a myriad of interactions, agents finally self-organised into single ideological dimensions – no matter how many issue dimensions we started the simulation with.

    We should make an effort to understand each other.
    Troy Walker/Shutterstock

    Where exactly individual agents ended up on this ideological continuum depended on one crucial factor: the strength of the connection between disagreement on issues and personal dislike.

    If this connection is weak – meaning agents could dislike each other but still agree, or like each other and disagree – agents remained close to the centre. If it was strong, the simulated society broke into two opposed camps – it became polarised.

    This suggests polarisation is linked to people’s ability to connect to others on a personal level. When we lose sight of the fact that those we disagree with are usually decent human beings with good intentions, we may find ourselves diverging more and more on political issues, with less room for compromise.

    This is notable at a time when so much political debate is conducted online through impersonal or anonymous social media accounts. The real world is much more complex than a one-dimensional view of politics would suggest. And people are much more than the political views they share online.

    In the end, we will never be able to eliminate the force of cognitive balance – just as we can’t get rid of gravity. But we can find ways to increase the personal connection between people who hold different political views.

    Simon Schweighofer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The science of polarisation: our model shows what happens when political opponents lose their personal connection – https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-polarisation-our-model-shows-what-happens-when-political-opponents-lose-their-personal-connection-239130

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chris Medland, PhD Candidate in Climate Change Resilience, University of Surrey

    Deadly Storm Boris has flooded large areas of central Europe and the UK, destroying homes and displacing thousands of people.

    With the flooding of sub-stations, the scouring of the foundations of pylons and river embankment failures, the rainstorm has also caused power outages many miles away. This will create yet more disruption as sewage pumping stations stall, train and tram services halt and vehicle charging points fail.

    The UK saw this ripple of infrastructure failure in the 2007 summer floods. The compound failures caused by flooding in Gloucestershire alone, a county in south-west England, left 350,000 people without mains water for over two weeks and 42,000 people without power.

    Commuters were stranded on the railway network and the M5 motorway. The floods also made thousands of people homeless. Similar floods struck the UK again in 2013 and 2020.

    All systems fail occasionally. But infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions caused by extreme weather, which is being made more severe and frequent as a result of climate change. The UK’s national risk register lists nine impacts of climate change that could seriously damage infrastructure (including storms, heatwaves and wildfires) that is increasingly complex and interconnected. A single failure can create a cascade of them.

    Risky business

    Your home may not be in the path of the next storm but the infrastructure it relies on might be. So who is responsible for making sure that the power stays on, the toilets can still flush and water keeps running from taps? Whose job is it to ensure infrastructure is resilient to climate change?

    People are responsible for their own resilience and that of their homes and private companies are responsible for the resilience of their operations. However, companies that operate services such as public transport, communications networks or utilities are overseen by regulators such as Ofgem (energy) and Ofwat (water).

    The resilience of the networks owned by companies is not subject to regulation directly, there is no minimum standard of resilience that must be maintained and no fines for failure. Instead, people affected by power outages, for example, can claim compensation after a certain degree of disruption.

    Installations were, generally, designed and built in an earlier climate.
    David Calvert/Shutterstock

    Within the government, the Cabinet Office takes the lead on planning the country’s resilience and is responsible for the government’s response to emergencies and for producing the national security risk assessment and the national risk register. Each risk is designated a lead government department, which works with agencies and public bodies that fall under its jurisdiction.

    For example, flood risk is considered by the Environment Agency which reports to the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (or Defra). Advisory bodies like the Climate Change Committee and the National Infrastructure Commission make recommendations to the government and assess its performance but have no powers to enforce action.

    There are 427 public bodies and agencies working under the legal frameworks set by the 24 government departments – none have a minimum standard for infrastructure resilience.

    The previous government committed to publishing resilience standards by 2025. Such standards would instruct utility companies and infrastructure operators on what measures were needed to prevent power cuts and other failures in the future. Discussions are happening in Whitehall that will shape the quality of life of millions of people for many years to come.

    Three futures

    Without taking all infrastructure into public ownership, or without all homes generating their own power and somehow meeting their own needs, what does the future look like? Is it down to homeowners to fend for themselves while landlords assume responsibility for the power and water of their tenants? In the worst-case scenario, will people be left to their own devices in a world reminiscent of Mad Max?

    There are three possibilities. The first is that society simply accepts more frequent failures and a lower standard of living for most. The second option includes the electricity grid, roads and railways, sewage treatment plants and other national infrastructure being updated and improved, with all the attendant costs.

    The third option would see people take direct action by adapting homes and communities to make them less dependent on national infrastructure. In this scenario, services are more localised such that communities or households become self-sufficient to varying degrees, perhaps establishing autonomous off-grid settlements.

    Renewable energy technology offers its generators a degree of autonomy.
    Hazel Plater/Shutterstock

    No government would be elected promising to preside over falling living standards. The other options come with many challenges. Option two assumes a great degree of government intervention and a high level of investment in new and improved infrastructure: flood defences, additional power cables, new rail way lines. Option three implies less involvement from central government and more power to local authority and community bodies to generate electricity and treat water for example.

    The future may well be a combination of these scenarios, but doing nothing isn’t an option. It’s not a question of if serious floods will happen again, but when.



    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    Chris Medland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off? – https://theconversation.com/whos-to-blame-when-climate-change-turns-the-lights-off-236446

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pink cocaine: the party drug cocktail putting a growing number of lives at risk

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joseph Janes, Lecturer in Criminology, Swansea University

    A synthetic drug cocktail known as pink cocaine, has rapidly become a major concern in Spain, the UK and beyond. Earlier this month, Spanish authorities carried out their largest ever synthetic drug bust, seizing a large quantity of pink cocaine alongside more than a million ecstasy pills. The operation targeted drug networks across Ibiza and Malaga.

    This dangerous substance has been linked to a growing number of drug-related deaths. The unpredictable composition and rising popularity of pink cocaine have sparked calls from European drug harm reduction organisations for urgent action to address the risks it poses.

    Despite its name, pink cocaine doesn’t necessarily contain any cocaine. Instead, it’s often a mixture of various other substances, including MDMA, ketamine and 2C-B. MDMA, commonly known as ecstasy, is a stimulant with psychedelic properties while ketamine is a powerful anaesthetic which has sedative and hallucinogenic effects. 2C drugs are classed as psychedelics but they can also produce stimulant effects.

    Typically found in powder or pill form, pink cocaine is known for its vibrant colour, which is designed to enhance its visual appeal. It’s coloured using food colouring and sometimes strawberry or other flavourings.

    The original psychedelic form of the drug dates to 1974 and was first synthesised by American biochemist, Alexander Shulgin. But the modern variant emerged around 2010 in Colombia and is a knock-off version.

    The drug gained popularity on the party scene in Latin America and has now spread to Europe. Common names for pink cocaine vary widely, from “cocaina rosada” and “tuci” to “Venus” and “Eros”.

    Russian roulette

    Today’s pink cocaine is an unpredictable mix of substances and that is where much of its danger lies. Users often expect a stimulant similar to cocaine, but the inclusion of ketamine can lead to serious health risks. Abuse of ketamine, which is widely available as a club drug, can lead to unconsciousness or dangerously laboured breathing. This in turn increases the potential dangers of pink cocaine.

    Its aesthetic look and “designer drug” status have contributed to its appeal, particularly among young people and first-time users. This mirrors the historical allure of drugs like cocaine and MDMA. It highlights a persistent trend where certain substances are glamourised despite their risks.

    Experts compare taking pink cocaine to playing Russian Roulette with substance use, underscoring the unpredictable and dangerous nature of pink cocaine.

    The drug has spread beyond Ibiza to the UK, and there is evidence that it has gained traction in Scotland, parts of Wales and England. Across the Atlantic, New York City has also seen a surge in its availability.

    Health officials across Europe are alarmed. Pink cocaine is difficult to detect through standard drug testing, particularly in Spain, where the current testing regime is not yet equipped to identify all its components.

    Warning to Brits over “Russian roulette” party drug pink cocaine | ITV News.

    The drug is sold for around US$100 per gram (£76) in Spain, and is often marketed as a high-end product. The legal response varies, with Spanish authorities working to curb its distribution.

    In the UK, pink cocaine falls under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971, which classifies drugs into three categories, class A, B, and C, based on their perceived harm. While pink cocaine itself may not be explicitly listed, the substances commonly found in it are controlled by the law. Both MDMA and 2C-B are class A drugs, while ketamine is a class B.

    Harm reduction

    One of the most urgent needs highlighted by the rise of pink cocaine is for accessible drug-checking services. Drug-checking kits are an important harm-reduction tool for people looking to test the substances they intend to consume. These kits can help users identify unknown components, offering a layer of protection in a high-risk environment.

    My own work shows how vital such harm-reduction services are. Public awareness campaigns and support services are also an important part of reducing harm.

    The growing popularity of pink cocaine is a stark reminder of the ever-changing landscape of illicit drugs, where aesthetics, social media trends and risky behaviour can combine to create new threats. While its pink hue and “designer” label may attract a younger crowd, the unpredictable cocktail of chemicals it contains presents a serious and growing danger.

    As pink cocaine continues to spread through Europe and beyond, it is crucial that authorities, health services and the public are equipped to deal with the risks it poses.

    Joseph Janes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Pink cocaine: the party drug cocktail putting a growing number of lives at risk – https://theconversation.com/pink-cocaine-the-party-drug-cocktail-putting-a-growing-number-of-lives-at-risk-237592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine drone strikes demonstrate its continuing intent to fight the long war against Russia

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    Ukraine recently launched a long-range drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in the Tver region of Russia. Ukraine followed up the strike with additional drone strikes near Tver and Krasnador.

    These strikes were notable for two reasons. First, the destruction may represent Ukraine’s most successful drone strikes in the current phase of the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Second, Toropets, where the first strike took place, is approximately 480 kilometres from the Russia-Ukraine border.

    The success of the attack has caused considerable elation among Ukraine’s supporters.

    The drone strikes, however, will not fundamentally alter the current battlefield. But they are part of broader efforts by Ukraine to undermine Russia’s ability to wage war. These efforts are unlikely to bear fruit in 2024, but do improve Ukraine’s position for 2025 and potentially beyond.

    The failed search for fast victory

    Both Ukraine and Russia have sought rapid victories in the war.

    Russia, based on captured documents, believed that its invasion in 2022 would only take 10 days to result in total Ukrainian capitulation. Ukrainian resolve and the weaknesses of Russian armed forces, however, doomed this effort.

    Ukraine and its supporters, likewise, placed too much hope in a decisive victory in the 2023 summer offensive. But their hopes were quashed by a Russian army that was not only superior to its 2022 iteration and fighting on the defensive, but also by structural weaknesses in the newly constituted Ukrainian units as well.

    The reality of the Russia-Ukraine war is that rapid and decisive victories for either side are impractical. Instead, both Ukraine and Russia are undertaking efforts to win in 2025 and beyond.

    Russian tactical actions

    Ukraine realized it was in an existential fight from the outset of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s focus on a rapid victory in Ukraine, however, meant Russia was unprepared for a protracted conflict.

    Russia, however, adapted to the prolonged war, using the mercenary Wagner Group to stabilize its position in Ukraine. Russia’s efforts to find soldiers for the war effort included giving the Wagner Group the green light to recruit from Russian prisons.




    Read more:
    Russians flee the draft as the reality of the war in Ukraine hits home


    These efforts, however, were more akin to patching holes in the Russian war effort than addressing its underlying issues. In September 2022, Putin announced a partial mobilization of Russian reservists, totalling 300,000 additional soldiers.

    A Russian recruit and his wife kiss and hug each other outside a military recruitment centre in Volgograd, Russia, in September 2022.
    (AP Photo)

    This mobilization and subsequent recruitment efforts gave Russia the personnel advantages it had at the beginning of the conflict. The reinforcements have allowed Russia to resume grinding offensive operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Notably, Russian forces are now nearing the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

    Economic sanctions have affected Russia’s ability to produce high-end weapons. Nevertheless, it’s still able to acquire arms at scale from its domestic arms industry as well as from countries like Iran and North Korea.

    Combined with Russia’s diplomatic offensive in Africa, Putin is not as isolated as western countries commonly believe.

    Ukrainian morale

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition, and most analyses have assumed that type of war plays to Russia’s advantage given its material superiority. A factor neglected by many analysts in wars of attrition, however, is the importance of morale.

    The Ukrainian government and armed forces have not neglected this crucial point. The recent and ongoing drone strikes help to boost declining Ukrainian morale as the war takes it toll and as hopes of a rapid conclusion have faded, both among Ukrainians themselves and their allies.

    Ukrainian efforts over the summer should be viewed through this morale lens. When doing so, it also becomes evident that Ukraine is fighting the long war versus seeking decisive victories.

    None of Ukraine’s major efforts over the summer, when viewed in isolation, have a serious chance of changing the war in a significant manner. The Ukrainian army’s occupation of parts of the Kursk region this summer brought the conflict to Russian territory. The amount of territory taken by Ukraine, however, is negligible.

    Each operation improves Ukraine’s ability to fight a protracted war, however, while simultaneously undermining Russia’s material and moral resources. They also boost the country’s morale while humiliating Putin at the same time.

    Long-term vision

    Russia staked considerable political capital and material benefits in acquiring support in Africa through the Wagner Group.

    Ukrainian special operation forces efforts in Africa against the Wagner Group undermine Russia’s ability to acquire diplomatic support and other resources.




    Read more:
    Ukrainian special operations abroad are part of its broader war effort against Russia


    Ukraine’s drone strikes will not alter Russian military supplies in a permanent way. But the strikes, using domestically produced drones, creates pressure on Ukraine’s allies to allow western weapons to be used with potentially greater effect.

    The daily news cycle focuses on the importance of individual acts. In assessing how the conflict is developing, however, it’s important to understand how these acts, ranging from drone strikes to ground offensives, are connected to an overall strategy. Each is designed to improve Ukraine’s position while undermining Russia’s during a protracted war.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Ukraine drone strikes demonstrate its continuing intent to fight the long war against Russia – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: UN security council: African countries face hurdles and dangers in getting permanent seats

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, Professor of International and Diplomacy Studies, Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, University of South Africa

    There is growing global consensus among the members of the United Nations that the UN security council, responsible for maintaining international peace and security, requires reform or restructuring to reflect the current balance of forces, and to improve its working methods and ability to do its work.

    There is also growing consensus among members of the African Union that Africa deserves a permanent presence at the council.

    The debate took a new turn on 13 September, when the US announced it would support the creation of two new permanent seats for African countries, and a non-permanent seat for small island developing nations. This came after a pledge in 2022 by the Biden administration to support the expansion of the security council.

    The new permanent seats would come without the power of a veto vote.




    Read more:
    Africa on the UN security council: why the continent should have two permanent seats


    There are several reasons why, in my view, this quest to expand the council is likely to fail. I have followed and published on the South African experience of the UN security council and believe there is need for a sober assessment of what is achievable.

    First, those with permanent seats and veto power (Russia and China, the US, the UK and France) are reluctant to share it, for fear of diluting their own interests and influence.

    Second, if there was agreement on expansion, who would be worthy to fill the extra seats, and how would they be chosen? There are many deserving candidates, from Latin America to Europe and Asia.

    Third, how would Africa go about selecting two of its own to represent the continent on the council?

    Fourth, what would prevent such newcomers from being co-opted by the powerful (in this case, the US) to support or help implement western peace and security agendas at the expense of African and global south agendas?

    To offset the attractiveness and prestige of joining the premier international security club, Africa should be mindful of the entry requirements (namely, diplomatic nous, experience with peacekeeping and the ability to finance such), lest it find itself relegated to serving the security council’s longstanding members.

    Africa would be wise to select and support candidates that have experience, resources and a credible peacebuilding track record on the continent.

    Hurdles and dangers

    It is far from obvious that the continent’s two economic giants, Nigeria and South Africa, should represent Africa. Size counts but doesn’t always translate into attractiveness or credibility at home – a key requirement for a successful role in regional and international affairs.

    The unfortunate reality is that Africa remains divided on the basis of region, language and culture. The continent struggles to speak with one voice on critical matters such as peace and security – the priority of the UN security agenda.

    Under these conditions, a drawn-out and perhaps even unsuccessful process of selecting two out of the 54 members of the African Union is likely.

    In addition, the offer by the west for Africa to take up seats should not be viewed as an act of benevolence. Bringing Africa into the western sphere of influence is a strategic calculation to counter the growing impact of Russia and China on global affairs.

    The emergence of a new world order produces stresses and strains. The west, led by the US, continues to exercise hard power but declining influence, while an assertive alliance of global south states, led by China, is bent on eventually determining international affairs.




    Read more:
    Pan-Africanism remains a dream: four key issues the African Union must tackle


    Prominent members of the global south are enticed or pressured to partner with one or the other power bloc.

    Africa in particular is being courted precisely because of its large voting number (54 countries can swing decisions at multilateral meetings) but more strategically, because it constitutes the reservoir of the world’s future economy. Apart from being blessed with a youthful demographic, Africa can come into central focus due to its unique endowment of green transition minerals like cobalt, lithium and nickel.

    Where to from here?

    If all obstacles are overcome, the chosen countries would have their work cut out for them. Serving – never mind shaping – the UN security council agenda is a demanding, full-time task. The chosen African countries would have to commit significant human and financial resources, peacebuilding capacity and diplomatic leadership skills.

    South Africa is arguably the best placed to meet these criteria and can play a constructive role pushing the African agenda. But it needs to be wary.




    Read more:
    Rating agencies and Africa: the absence of people on the ground contributes to bias against the continent – analyst


    The country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was quick to respond to the US statement. On the eve of departing for the annual UN general assembly talk show he told the media

    We have been campaigning and the concept has been accepted and of course Africa continues to play through various countries on the continent, important roles, peacekeeping missions not only on our continent but around the world. So, we [have] got the capability, we know how and Africa needs to be given its rightful place in the UN system and its various structures.

    Some critical questions need to be answered by all African leaders first:

    • What are the benefits for an African country taking up a permanent seat on the UN security council?

    • How would it contribute, and what would it receive in return?

    • Would it be able to set agendas and norms, or would it be forced to carry out the tasks of those who allowed it a seat at the table?

    Africa is not unfamiliar with the workings of the United Nations system. It has benefited immensely from UN involvement as it strove for decolonialisation and overcoming the apartheid system. It works closely with the UN as it faces the challenges of underdevelopment, unequal trade, extreme weather and the ongoing exploitation of its human and natural resources.

    It is fitting and ethical for Africa to take up permanent seats at the apex institution and put the security council to work to address Africa’s peace and security challenges.

    To do so, its chosen members must chart an African course of action, supported by the other members of the council.

    Anthoni van Nieuwkerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. UN security council: African countries face hurdles and dangers in getting permanent seats – https://theconversation.com/un-security-council-african-countries-face-hurdles-and-dangers-in-getting-permanent-seats-239642

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Beyond the ivory tower: universities need to prioritise the entrepreneurial mindset, not just new ideas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod McNaughton, Professor of Entrepreneurship, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    As universities consider their future in the 21st century, many are embracing the concept of “innovation” in their strategic plans.

    According to Harvard Business School, innovation is “a product, service, business model or strategy that’s both novel and useful”.

    By focusing on innovation, universities are attempting to position themselves as drivers of progress – as institutions that generate knowledge and apply it to solve the world’s most pressing problems.

    But here’s the catch: fewer universities embrace “entrepreneurship” similarly, despite it being the critical bridge between innovation and real-world impact.

    Innovation vs entrepreneurship

    It’s easy to see why universities are more comfortable with innovation.

    Labs, research centres and academic programs encourage pushing the envelope in a relatively risk-free setting.

    Original research is one of the requirements of completing a doctorate. This means universities feel like hubs of cutting-edge thinking, even if the innovations never leave the confines of the campus.

    However, entrepreneurship requires something different. Those with an idea also have to understand how to navigate the messy realities of bringing it to fruition.

    Entrepreneurship demands the skills to manage people and resources, assess viability, identify pathways to adoption, and understand the environment while being comfortable with uncertainty and resilient in the face of failure and change.

    Fostering an entrepreneur mindset in academics

    Understanding the distinction between innovation and entrepreneurship is critical. Innovation often begins by assuming no constraints and imagining a world of possibility.

    But entrepreneurship assumes resources are scarce and that success depends on overcoming obstacles and working with what’s available. While innovation can happen in isolation, entrepreneurship needs community, collaboration, feedback and constant adaptation.

    Entrepreneurial skills are valuable for students at all levels and any discipline. But the entrepreneurial process can be especially helpful for researchers and PhD students who have spent years developing an idea but not a way to get it into the real world.

    Bridging the gap

    Globally, there is a growing gap between the number of doctoral graduates and academic jobs.

    Programs such as the ones run by the University of Auckland Business School’s Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE) (which I am involved in), are teaching how to identify opportunities and navigate resource constraints through mentoring, workshops and hands-on projects.

    While some find opportunities to commercialise their research, others pursue policy changes or social ventures.

    One good illustration of this is Kate Riegle van West’s doctoral research. Riegle van West examined the benefits of poi for the health of older adults. Supported by CIE’s programs, she launched SpinPoi, a social venture dedicated to working with poi to improve health and well being.

    Since its founding, CIE has helped start more than 279 ventures and provides entrepreneurial experiences to more than 7,500 students and staff across the university each year.

    Similar programs exist at other universities, but much more needs to be done to scale up the development of entrepreneurial skills within universities.

    Overcoming resistance

    Universities have been slow to prioritise developing an entrepreneurial mindset among students and staff.

    Innovation without entrepreneurship is like building a bridge halfway. You may have a brilliant idea, but it is unlikely to make a meaningful impact without the skills to bring it to reality. Entrepreneurship transforms creative ideas into valuable, tangible outcomes.

    But there are challenges. “Innovation” is more palatable to some academics, especially those who equate entrepreneurship with commercialism. To overcome this, it’s crucial to recognise that entrepreneurial skills are valuable across most endeavours.

    Skills like opportunity recognition, resource allocation, and risk management are critical for starting businesses. But they are also highly valued within existing organisations and for leading teams and driving change in any sector.

    Staff and students may not immediately see the relevance of entrepreneurship to their discipline or career aspirations, thinking entrepreneurship is only for those in business or the sciences.

    Yet there is a growing need for entrepreneurial skills to bridge the gap between academic expertise and application from students in all disciplines.

    At the doctoral level, developing these skills can help ensure research has wider impact, and create opportunities for these researchers once they graduate.

    It’s not that innovation isn’t useful – it’s essential.

    Many industries and organisations rely on innovation to improve efficiency, create new products, and solve complex problems. In some professional contexts, an innovation mindset may be more relevant than an entrepreneurial one.

    But to truly contribute to solving societal problems and prepare their students to make a difference, universities must do more than foster innovation. They must prioritise and develop an entrepreneurial mindset and competencies among students and staff, enabling them to execute, adapt and create lasting impact.

    Rod McNaughton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Beyond the ivory tower: universities need to prioritise the entrepreneurial mindset, not just new ideas – https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-ivory-tower-universities-need-to-prioritise-the-entrepreneurial-mindset-not-just-new-ideas-239377

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz