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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Agatha Christie’s mid-century ‘manosphere’ reveals a different kind of dysfunctional male

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gill Plain, Professor of English Literature and Popular Culture, University of St Andrews

    This piece contains spoilers for Towards Zero.

    Agatha Christie, a middle-class English crime writer who preferred to be known as a housewife, is the world’s bestselling novelist. Since her death in 1976, her work has been translated into over 100 languages and adapted for cinema, TV and even video games.

    Her writing is characterised by its cheerful readability and ruthless dissection of hypocrisy, greed and respectability. Christie is fascinated by power and its abuse, and explores this through the skilful deployment of recognisable character types. The suspects in her books are not just there for the puzzle – they also exemplify the attitudes, ideals and assumptions that shaped 20th-century British society.

    If we want to know about the mid-century “manosphere”, then, there is no better place to look than in the fiction of Agatha Christie. What did masculinity mean to this writer, and would we recognise it in the gender types and ideals of today? Some answers might be found through the recent BBC adaptation of Towards Zero, which confronts viewers with a range of dysfunctional male types.

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    Chief among these is Thomas Royde, a neurotic twitching figure driven to breakdown by the shame of having his word doubted. Gaslit by his pathologically perfect cousin Nevile, Thomas has been dispatched to the colonies, where he has compounded his injuries through financial failure. Broke and broken, the adaptation imagines him returning to the family home with trauma quite literally written on his body.

    This is not the Thomas Royde of Christie’s original 1944 novel. That figure was stoic, silent and perfectly capable of managing his failure to live up to the spectacular masculinity of cousin Nevile. Christie’s Thomas may have regretted his romantic losses and physical limitations, but the idea of exposing his pain in public would have horrified him.

    This is not a case of repression; rather it speaks to a world in which pain is respected, but simply not discussed. Thomas’s friends, we are told, “had learned to gauge his reactions correctly from the quality of his silences”. The stoical man of few words is a recurrent type within Christie’s fiction. It’s a mode of masculinity of which she approves – even while poking fun at it – and one recognised by her mid-20th century audience.

    These are men who embody ideal British middle-class values: steady, reliable, resilient, modest, good humoured and infinitely sensible. They find their fictional reward in happy unions, sometimes with sensible women, sometimes with bright young things who benefit from their calm assurance.

    Christie also depicted more dangerous male types – attractive adventurers who might be courageous, or reckless and deadly. These charismatic figures present a troubling mode of masculinity in her fiction, from the effortlessly charming Ralph in The Murder of Roger Ackroyd (1926), to Michael Rogers, the all too persuasive narrator of Endless Night (1967).

    Superficially, these two types of men might be mapped onto Christie’s own experiences. Her autobiography suggests that she was irresistibly drawn to something strange and inscrutable in her first husband, Archie. By contrast, her second husband, the archaeologist Max Mallowan, brought friendship and shared interests.

    Yet while it’s possible to see biographical resonances in these types, it is equally important to recognise them as part of a middle-class world view that set limits on acceptable masculinities. In my book, Agatha Christie: A Very Short Introduction, I explore these limits, examining a cultural climate riven with contradictions.

    A different time

    Mid-20th century culture insisted that men be articulate when discussing public matters – science, politics, sport – but those who extended this to the emotions were not to be trusted. They were seen to be glib, foolish or possibly dangerous.

    British masculinity acts rather than talks and does a decent job of work. As a result, work itself is a vital dimension of man-making in Christie’s novels, and in the fiction of contemporaries like Nigel Balchin, Hammond Innes and Nevil Shute.

    These writers witnessed the conflicting pressures on men, expected to be both soldiers and citizens, capable of combat and domestic breadwinning. They saw the damage caused by war, unemployment and the loss of father figures. But the answer wasn’t talking. Rather, the best medicine for wounded masculinity was the self-respect that comes with doing a good day’s work.

    This ideology still resonates within understandings of “healthy” masculinity, but there are limits to the problems that can be solved through a companionable post-work pint. Which brings us back to the BBC’s Towards Zero. Contemporary adaptations often speak to the preoccupations of their moment, and the plot is driven by one man’s all-consuming hatred of his ex-wife.

    With apologies for plot spoilers, perfect Nevile turns out to be a perfect misogynist, scheming against the woman who has – to his mind – humiliated him. But the world of his hatred is a long way from the online “manosphere” of our contemporary age.

    Quite aside from the technological gulf separating the eras, Christie does not imagine misogyny as an abusive mass phenomenon, a set of echo chambers which figure men as the victims of feminism. Rather, Nevile, like all Christie’s murderers, kills for reasons that can clearly be defined, detected and articulated: he is an isolated madman, not a cultural phenomenon.

    Towards Zero’s topicality – its preoccupation with celebrity, resentment of women and a manipulative gaslighting villain – does much to explain its adaptation, but it does not account for the radical revision of Thomas Royde. Is it an indication that stoicism is out of fashion? Or simply a desire to convert Christie’s cool-tempered fictions into melodramas appropriate for a social-media age?

    Whatever the thinking, there is a familiar consolation for Thomas’s pain. He might not get the girl of his dreams, but he does get something better: a steady, reliable woman whose modest virtues illustrate that, in Christie’s world, “ideal masculinity” is unexpectedly non-binary. Women can be just as stoic, reserved and resilient as men.

    Christie’s “manosphere”, then, has its share of haters, but they are isolated figures forced to disguise their resentments. They also, frequently, meet untimely ends – another reason why Christie remains a bestseller to this day.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you buy something, The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Gill Plain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Agatha Christie’s mid-century ‘manosphere’ reveals a different kind of dysfunctional male – https://theconversation.com/agatha-christies-mid-century-manosphere-reveals-a-different-kind-of-dysfunctional-male-254726

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: How Donald Trump’s economic policies, including uncertainty around tariffs, are damaging the US economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Whittaker, Senior Teaching Fellow in Economics, Lancaster University

    Donald Trump set a deadline of July 9 2025 for trade deals to be made before he hits some of the world’s biggest economies with his controversial tariffs. It’s impossible to predict what will happen on the day, but it is already clear that his economic policies are damaging American interests.

    Just look at the state of US government debt for example. Currently it stands at US$36 trillion (£26 trillion). And with total economic output (GDP) worth US$29 trillion per year, that debt is 123% of GDP, the highest it has been since 1946.

    Government debts are alarmingly high in other countries too (the UK’s is at 104% of GDP, with France at 116% and China at 113%), but the US is towards the top of the range.

    The recently passed budget reconciliation bill (what Trump calls the “big beautiful bill”) is projected to add US$3 trillion to that debt over the next decade. With these sorts of numbers, there is little prospect of putting US debt on a downward track.

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    In 2024, the US government had to borrow an additional US$1.8 trillion to cover spending not supported by tax revenue (the budget deficit). This is equivalent to 6.2% of GDP, a number that is officially predicted to rise to 7.3% during the next 30 years.

    The predictable consequence of this fiscal profligacy and the chaotic tariff programme is the high rates of interest that the US government is having to pay for its borrowing.

    For instance, the interest rate on ten-year US government debt (otherwise known as its yield) has risen from 0.5% in mid-2020 to 4.3% now. And as government debt yields rise, so do interest rates on mortgages and corporate borrowing.

    The power of the dollar

    For decades, the United States has enjoyed a high level of trust in the strength, openness and stability of its economy.

    As a result, US bonds or “treasuries”, the financial assets that the government sells to raise money for public spending, have long been considered safe investments by financial institutions around the world. And the US dollar has been the dominant currency for international payments and debts.

    Sometimes referred to as “exorbitant privilege”, this status of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency brings big advantages. It benefits US consumers by making imported goods cheaper (albeit contributing to the trade deficits (when US imports to a country are worth more than its exports) which bother the president so much).

    It also means the US government can borrow a lot of money before doubts arise about its ability to repay. Investors will generally buy as many bonds as the US govt needs to issue to pay for its spending.

    The dominance of the dollar in international transactions also brings political power, such as the ability to exclude Russia from major global payment systems.

    But this privilege is being eroded by the US president’s tariff agenda. Economic motives aside, it is the way they are being applied – their size and the unpredictability – that is really sapping investor confidence.

    It’s costly to adjust trading patterns and supply chains in response to tariffs. So when the scope of future tariffs is unknown, the rational response is to stop investing while awaiting greater certainty.

    The dollar has lost 8% in value since the beginning of the year, reflecting investor doubts about the US economy, and making imports even more expensive.

    Financial markets are vulnerable

    But perhaps the biggest danger to US financial markets is a sudden rise in yields on government debt. No investor wants to be left holding a bond when its yield rises because – as with all fixed-interest debt – the rise in yield causes the bond’s market value to fall. This is because new bonds are issued with a higher yield, making existing bonds less attractive and less valuable.

    A bond holder expecting a rise in yield therefore has an incentive to sell it before the rise occurs. But the rise in yield can become self-reinforcing if the scramble to sell becomes a stampede.

    Indeed, there was a jump in US yields after the increases in trade tariffs announced on “liberation day” in early April, with the yield on ten-year treasuries rising by 0.5% in just four days.

    Damaged dollar?
    Dilok Klaisataporn/Shutterstock

    Fortunately, this rise was halted on April 10 when the tariffs were abruptly paused, allegedly in response to the fall in bond prices and an accompanying fall in share prices. The opinion of a senior central banker, that financial markets had been close to “meltdown”, was one of several such warnings.

    The dollar is unlikely to be quickly dislodged from its pedestal as the world’s reserve currency, as the alternatives are not attractive. The euro is not suitable because it is the currency of 20 EU countries, each with its own separate government debt. Nor is the Chinese yuan a likely contender, given the Chinese government involvement in managing the yuan exchange rate.

    But since March, foreign central banks have been selling off US treasuries, often choosing to hold gold instead.

    On Trump’s watch, the reputation of the US dollar as the ultimate safe asset has been tarnished, leaving the financial system more vulnerable – and borrowing more expensive.

    John Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Donald Trump’s economic policies, including uncertainty around tariffs, are damaging the US economy – https://theconversation.com/how-donald-trumps-economic-policies-including-uncertainty-around-tariffs-are-damaging-the-us-economy-259809

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Underwater lake heatwaves are on the rise, threatening aquatic life

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Iestyn Woolway, Reader and NERC Independent Research Fellow, Bangor University

    A view of Lake Superior, one of the Great Lakes. Travis J. Camp/Shutterstock

    Lakes are essential to ecosystems, providing freshwater, supporting biodiversity and offering crucial habitat for fish and other aquatic species.

    But a recent study by my colleagues and I shows that lakes around the world are warming, not just at the surface, but deep below as well. Subsurface heatwaves in lakes, defined as extreme periods of high water temperature below the surface, are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity.

    These hidden extremes could have serious consequences for lake ecosystems. Despite that, the issue remains largely unmonitored and poorly understood.

    Lake heatwaves are similar to those in the atmosphere or ocean. They are prolonged periods of excessive warmth. Most research to date has focused on surface temperatures, where climate change has already caused more frequent and intense heatwaves over recent decades.

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    These surface events can disrupt the chemical and physical balance of lakes, damage food webs and, in some cases, cause mass fish die-offs.

    Aquatic species respond to surface heatwaves in different ways. Some benefit if the warming expands their preferred temperature range. But many others, particularly those already living near their thermal limits, face significant stress.

    In lakes that stratify during summer – where warm surface water sits above a cooler bottom layer – some species seek refuge from the heat by migrating to deeper water. But what happens when that deeper refuge is no longer cool?

    A closer look beneath the surface

    To investigate, we analysed temperature data from tens of thousands of lakes worldwide. These included one-dimensional lake models, high-resolution simulations for the Great Lakes of North America, and local models calibrated to specific lake conditions.

    By analysing how temperature varies with depth and time, we identified when and where subsurface waters crossed extreme heat thresholds.

    We defined subsurface heatwaves as periods when temperatures at particular depths exceeded their typical seasonal range. We also tracked how these events have changed since 1980, and how they might evolve under different emissions scenarios by the end of this century.

    Lake Huron, one of the Great Lakes.
    Craig Sterken/Shutterstock

    Subsurface heatwaves are already common and they’re becoming more so.

    Since 1980, bottom heatwaves (those occurring at the deepest parts of lakes) have increased by an average of more than seven days per decade in frequency, more than two days per decade in duration and they have risen by around 0.2C per decade.

    Although these deep-water events tend to be slightly less intense than surface ones, they often last longer.

    We also found a rise in “vertically compounding” heatwaves. This is when extreme temperatures happen simultaneously at the surface and bottom of a lake.

    These doubled-up events are now happening more than three days per decade more frequently. When they strike, aquatic species can be left with no place to escape the heat.

    Even more concerning, the deep-water refuges that once offered shelter during surface heatwaves are shrinking or disappearing altogether. In some lakes, the distance fish need to travel to find cooler water has increased by nearly a metre per decade.

    Our simulations suggest that these trends will intensify, especially under high-emission scenarios. By the end of this century, some bottom heatwaves could last for months, with temperature extremes not seen in the historical record.

    Why this matters

    Lake ecosystems rely on thermal structure. When extreme heat reaches deeper into the water column, it can trigger cascading ecological effects, from shifting fish habitats and altering species distribution, to increased nutrient cycling and algal blooms. It could even affect the release of greenhouse gases like methane from lake bed sediments.

    Subsurface heatwaves pose a particular risk to bottom-dwelling species, which may be less mobile or already adapted to cold, stable conditions. The loss of thermal refuges during surface heatwaves also jeopardises species that would otherwise escape to deeper waters.

    By ignoring what’s happening below the surface, we risk underestimating the true ecological effects of climate change on freshwater systems.

    Our study highlights the urgent need to expand lake monitoring efforts to include subsurface temperatures. While satellites have transformed our understanding of surface warming, they can’t capture what’s happening below.

    Future research should examine how different species respond to these deep-water and vertically compounding heatwaves. It should explore how changes in lake thermal structure affect different processes like nutrient cycling and methane production.

    For conservation planners, that means incorporating subsurface heatwaves into risk assessments and habitat models. For climate modellers, it means better representing vertical processes in lakes within global Earth system models.

    As lakes continue to warm, managing and understanding these hidden heat extremes will be critical to protecting biodiversity and the vital ecosystem services lakes provide.

    Iestyn Woolway receives funding from UKRI NERC.

    – ref. Underwater lake heatwaves are on the rise, threatening aquatic life – https://theconversation.com/underwater-lake-heatwaves-are-on-the-rise-threatening-aquatic-life-258885

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: From glass and steel to rare earth metals, new materials have changed society throughout history

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Peter Mullner, Distinguished Professor in Materials Science and Engineering, Boise State University

    Steel played a large role in the Industrial Revolution. Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    Many modern devices – from cellphones and computers to electric vehicles and wind turbines – rely on strong magnets made from a type of minerals called rare earths. As the systems and infrastructure used in daily life have turned digital and the United States has moved toward renewable energy, accessing these minerals has become critical – and the markets for these elements have grown rapidly.

    Modern society now uses rare earth magnets in everything from national defense, where magnet-based systems are integral to missile guidance and aircraft, to the clean energy transition, which depends on wind turbines and electric vehicles.

    The rapid growth of the rare earth metal trade and its effects on society isn’t the only case study of its kind. Throughout history, materials have quietly shaped the trajectory of human civilization. They form the tools people use, the buildings they inhabit, the devices that mediate their relationships and the systems that structure economies. Newly discovered materials can set off ripple effects that shape industries, shift geopolitical balances and transform people’s daily habits.

    Materials science is the study of the atomic structure, properties, processing and performance of materials. In many ways, materials science is a discipline of immense social consequence.

    As a materials scientist, I’m interested in what can happen when new materials become available. Glass, steel and rare earth magnets are all examples of how innovation in materials science has driven technological change and, as a result, shaped global economies, politics and the environment.

    How innovation shapes society: Pressures from societal and political interests (orange arrows) drive the creation of new materials and the technologies that such materials enable (center). The ripple effects resulting from people using these technologies change the entire fabric of society (blue arrows).
    Peter Mullner

    Glass lenses and the scientific revolution

    In the early 13th century, after the sacking of Constantinople, some excellent Byzantine glassmakers left their homes to settle in Venice – at the time a powerful economic and political center. The local nobility welcomed the glassmakers’ beautiful wares. However, to prevent the glass furnaces from causing fires, the nobles exiled the glassmakers – under penalty of death – to the island of Murano.

    Murano became a center for glass craftsmanship. In the 15th century, the glassmaker Angelo Barovier experimented with adding the ash from burned plants, which contained a chemical substance called potash, to the glass.

    The potash reduced the melting temperature and made liquid glass more fluid. It also eliminated bubbles in the glass and improved optical clarity. This transparent glass was later used in magnifying lenses and spectacles.

    Johannes Gutenberg’s printing press, completed in 1455, made reading more accessible to people across Europe. With it came a need for reading glasses, which grew popular among scholars, merchants and clergy – enough that spectacle-making became an established profession.

    By the early 17th century, glass lenses evolved into compound optical devices. Galileo Galilei pointed a telescope toward celestial bodies, while Antonie van Leeuwenhoek discovered microbial life with a microscope.

    The glass lens of the Vera Rubin Observatory, which surveys the night sky.
    Large Synoptic Survey Telescope/Vera Rubin Observatory, CC BY

    Lens-based instruments have been transformative. Telescopes have redefined long-standing cosmological views. Microscopes have opened entirely new fields in biology and medicine.

    These changes marked the dawn of empirical science, where observation and measurement drove the creation of knowledge. Today, the James Webb Space Telescope and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory continue those early telescopes’ legacies of knowledge creation.

    Steel and empires

    In the late 18th and 19th centuries, the Industrial Revolution created demand for stronger, more reliable materials for machines, railroads, ships and infrastructure. The material that emerged was steel, which is strong, durable and cheap. Steel is a mixture of mostly iron, with small amounts of carbon and other elements added.

    Countries with large-scale steel manufacturing once had outsized economic and political power and influence over geopolitical decisions. For example, the British Parliament intended to prevent the colonies from exporting finished steel with the iron act of 1750. They wanted the colonies’ raw iron as supply for their steel industry in England.

    Benjamin Huntsman invented a smelting process using 3-foot tall ceramic vessels, called crucibles, in 18th-century Sheffield. Huntsman’s crucible process produced higher-quality steel for tools and weapons.

    One hundred years later, Henry Bessemer developed the oxygen-blowing steelmaking process, which drastically increased production speed and lowered costs. In the United States, figures such as Andrew Carnegie created a vast industry based on Bessemer’s process.

    The widespread availability of steel transformed how societies built, traveled and defended themselves. Skyscrapers and transit systems made of steel allowed cities to grow, steel-built battleships and tanks empowered militaries, and cars containing steel became staples in consumer life.

    White-hot steel pouring out of an electric arc furnace in Brackenridge, Penn.
    Alfred T. Palmer/U.S. Library of Congress

    Control over steel resources and infrastructure made steel a foundation of national power. China’s 21st-century rise to steel dominance is a continuation of this pattern. From 1995 to 2015, China’s contribution to the world steel production increased from about 10% to more than 50%. The White House responded in 2018 with massive tariffs on Chinese steel.

    Rare earth metals and global trade

    Early in the 21st century, the advance of digital technologies and the transition to an economy based on renewable energies created a demand for rare earth elements.

    Offshore turbines use several tons of rare earth magnets to transform wind into electricity.
    Hans Hillewaert/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Rare earth elements are 17 chemically very similar elements, including neodymium, dysprosium, samarium and others. They occur in nature in bundles and are the ingredients that make magnets super strong and useful. They are necessary for highly efficient electric motors, wind turbines and electronic devices.

    Because of their chemical similarity, separating and purifying rare earth elements involves complex and expensive processes.

    China controls the majority of global rare earth processing capacity. Political tensions between countries, especially around trade tariffs and strategic competition, can risk shortages or disruptions in the supply chain.

    The rare earth metals case illustrates how a single category of materials can shape trade policy, industrial planning and even diplomatic alliances.

    Mining rare earth elements has allowed for the widespread adoption of many modern technologies.
    Peggy Greb, USDA

    Technological transformation begins with societal pressure. New materials create opportunities for scientific and engineering breakthroughs. Once a material proves useful, it quickly becomes woven into the fabric of daily life and broader systems. With each innovation, the material world subtly reorganizes the social world — redefining what is possible, desirable and normal.

    Understanding how societies respond to new innovations in materials science can help today’s engineers and scientists solve crises in sustainability and security. Every technical decision is, in some ways, a cultural one, and every material has a story that extends far beyond its molecular structure.

    The National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, NASA, and other national and regional agencies have funded former research of Peter Mullner.

    – ref. From glass and steel to rare earth metals, new materials have changed society throughout history – https://theconversation.com/from-glass-and-steel-to-rare-earth-metals-new-materials-have-changed-society-throughout-history-258244

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Elon Musk says he may launch his own party: but US history tells us that’s not a recipe for success

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Nottingham Trent University

    To paraphrase a very old joke, how do you make a small fortune in America? Start with a large fortune and fund a third political party. American political history is littered with the wrecks of challengers who thought they could break the two-party system and failed.

    This makes Elon Musk’s tease that he may launch his own new political party as an act of defiance following his falling out with Donald Trump even more intriguing.

    What do we mean by a two-party system though? Since the 1860s, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated the US political landscape, holding the presidency, Congress and the vast majority of elected positions. Attempts at third parties have usually floundered at the ballot box.

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    Some have lasted only for a few electoral cycles, including the Progressive Party in the 1910s and the Citizens Party of the 1980s, while others like the Libertarian Party and Green Party have lasted decades and, in some cases, managed some electoral success at the local level.

    But this is where an important distinction has to be made between third parties and third-party candidates. Because the US system is so personality-driven rather than party focused compared to Europe, quite often third parties have been built around a single person.

    A good example is the previously mentioned Progressive Party. It was founded in 1912 by former president Theodore Roosevelt after he split from the Republicans. Without him it quickly faded away.

    The Reform Party was created by billionaire Ross Perot in 1995 after he managed to get 18.9% of the vote in the 1992 presidential election. While it continued without him for some years, it was a shell of its former self. Other parties like the Socialist, Libertarian and Green parties have sprung from more organic movements and thus have been more successful at a local or state level.

    When you look at recent polling though, it seems strange that the two parties continue to dominate. Public dissatisfaction with politics as usual seems at an all-time high. In a recent Pew Research poll when asked whether “I often wish there were more political parties to choose from” describes their views, 37% of respondents answered: “Very well” and 31% answered: “Somewhat well”.

    In another poll, 25% of respondents said that neither of the two main parties represented their interests.

    So if there is an appetite for some sort of change, why have so few challengers succeeded? The two main parties seem entrenched to the point where it resembles a cartel.

    Odds stacked against third-party insurgency

    The first and arguably most important reason is the electoral system. First past the post does not guarantee a two-party system (look at Britain, for instance). But political scientist Maurice Duverger argued that it does mean that the two main parties have a significant advantage. There are prizes for coming first and second, nothing for third place.

    Equally, many of the big prizes in American politics such as the presidency and state governorships are indivisible and cannot be shared. So it has become received wisdom that voting for anyone other than Democrats or Republicans is a wasted vote.

    In these cases, people either vote for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils or stay at home, rather than voting for a candidate with no chance or that they may not support.

    The other multi-billion dollar elephant in the room is money. The sheer cost of running for elections in recent years means that any third party is unlikely to be able to raise the funds to be truly competitive. At the last election, the Democrats and Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars (which isn’t even counting all of the super-PAC money spent on their behalf).

    Whenever billionaires like Perot have attempted to self-fund a party, they have left themselves open to the accusation that it’s a vanity project, or lacks true mass appeal.

    There is also the fact that to run successfully you must have media coverage. The media tends to focus almost exclusively on the two main parties. This creates a “chicken and egg” situation where you need success to help raise money and media coverage, but it’s difficult to be successful without first having money and media coverage.

    The final reasons are that of the open primary and ideological flexibility of the main parties. Donald Trump briefly considered running as president for the Reform Party back in 2000. In 2016, the open primary system that both main parties use meant that he could impose himself on the Republican Party despite most of the party elite despising him.

    Why bother starting your own party when you can run for one that already exists? It could now be argued that the Republicans have effectively become the Trump or Maga party, although whether this will survive his presidency is open to debate.

    Money, money, money

    Elon Musk has, for the moment, money to burn. Whether he’s willing to invest in the long term to turn this into more than a vanity project remains to be seen.

    He also has charisma and a national platform to amplify his voice like few others. But, having been born outside America, he can’t run for president.

    If he’s serious about electoral success, he’d have to find someone to run, and that would mean, effectively, they’d lead his party. Musk’s public persona suggests that he does not play well with others.

    Founding a third party isn’t impossible, but unless there is a political earthquake it seems difficult to see how one could succeed.

    Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elon Musk says he may launch his own party: but US history tells us that’s not a recipe for success – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-says-he-may-launch-his-own-party-but-us-history-tells-us-thats-not-a-recipe-for-success-260480

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: War, politics and religion shape wildlife evolution in cities

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elizabeth Carlen, Living Earth Collaborative Postdoctoral Fellow, Washington University in St. Louis

    A Buddhist monk in Hong Kong releases fish and chants prayers during a ceremony to free the spirits of tsunami victims. Samantha Sin/AFP via Getty Images

    People often consider evolution to be a process that occurs in nature in the background of human society. But evolution is not separate from human beings. In fact, human cultural practices can influence evolution in wildlife. This influence is highly pronounced in cities, where people drastically alter landscapes to meet their own needs.

    Human actions can affect wildlife evolution in a number of ways. If people fragment habitat, separated wildlife populations can evolve to be more and more different from each other. If people change certain local conditions, it can pressure organisms in new ways that mean different genes are favored by natural selection and passed on to offspring – another form of evolution that can be driven by what people do.

    In a recent review, evolutionary biologists Marta Szulkin, Colin Garroway and I, in collaboration with scientists spread across five continents, explored how cultural processes – including religion, politics and war – shape urban evolution. We reviewed dozens of empirical studies about urban wildlife around the globe. Our work highlights which human cultural practices have and continue to shape the evolutionary trajectory of wild animals and plants.

    Religious practices

    If you’ve traveled internationally, you may have noticed the menu at any one McDonald’s restaurant is shaped by the local culture of its location. In the United Arab Emirates, McDonald’s serves an entirely halal menu. Vegetarian items are common and no beef is served in Indian McDonald’s. And in the United States, McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish is especially popular during Lent when observant Catholics don’t consume meat on Fridays.

    Similarly, ecosystems of cities are shaped by local cultural practices. Because all wildlife are connected to the environment, cultural practices that alter the landscape shape the evolution of urban organisms.

    Populations of fire salamanders have different genes depending on which side of city walls in Oviedo, Spain, they live on.
    Patrice Skrzynski via Getty Images

    For example, in Oviedo, Spain, people constructed walls around religious buildings between the 12th and 16th centuries. This division of the city led to different populations of fire salamanders inside and outside the walls. Because salamanders can’t scale these walls, those on opposite sides became isolated from each other and unable to pass genes back and forth. In a process that scientists call genetic drift, over time salamanders on the two sides became genetically distinct − evidence of the two populations evolving independently.

    Imagine dumping out a handful of M&Ms. Just by chance, some colors might be overrepresented and others might be missing. In the same way, genes that are overrepresented on one side of the wall can be in low numbers or missing on the other side. That’s genetic drift.

    Introducing non-native wildlife is another way people can alter urban ecosystems and evolutionary processes. For example, prayer animal release is a practice that started in the fifth or sixth century in some sects of Buddhism. Practitioners who strive to cause no harm to any living creature release captive animals, which benefits the animal and is meant to improve the karma of the person who released it.

    However, these animals are often captured from the wild or come from the pet trade, thereby introducing non-native wildlife into the urban ecosystem. Non-natives may compete with local species and contribute to the local extinction of native wildlife. Capturing animals nearby has downsides, too. It can diminish local populations, since many die traveling to the release ceremony. The genetic diversity of these local populations in turn decreases, reducing the population’s ability to survive.

    More than a thousand sparrows killed by peasants in 1958 are displayed on a cart near Beijing, China.
    Sovphoto/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Influence of politics

    Politically motivated campaigns have shaped wildlife in various ways.

    Starting in 1958, for instance, the Chinese Communist Party led a movement to eliminate four species that were considered pests: rats, flies, mosquitoes and sparrows. While the first three are commonly considered pests around the world, sparrows made the list because they were “public animals of capitalism” due to their fondness for grain. The extermination campaign ended up decimating the sparrow population and damaging the entire ecosystem. With sparrows no longer hunting and eating insects, crop pests such as locusts thrived, leading to crop destruction and famine.

    In the United States, racial politics may be shaping evolutionary processes in wildlife.
    For instance, American highways traverse cities according to political agendas and have often dismantled poor neighborhoods of color to make way for multilane thoroughfares. These highways can change how animals are able to disperse and commingle. For example, they prevent bobcats and coyotes from traveling throughout Los Angeles, leading to similar patterns of population differentiation as seen in fire salamanders in Spain.

    Wildlife during and after war

    Human religious and political agendas often lead to armed conflict. Wars are known to dramatically alter the environment, as seen in current conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.

    The Russia-Ukraine war affected migration of greater spotted eagles.
    Nimit Virdi via Getty Images

    While documenting evolutionary changes to urban wildlife is secondary to keeping people safe during wartime, a handful of studies on wildlife have come out of active war zones. For example, the current Russia-Ukraine war affected the migration of greater spotted eagles. They made large diversions around the active war zone, arriving later than usual at their breeding grounds. The longer route increased the energy the eagles used during migration and likely influenced their fitness during breeding.

    Wars limit access to resources for people living in active war zones. The lack of energy to heat homes in Ukraine during the winter has led urban residents to harvest wood from nearby forests. This harvesting will have long-term consequences on forest dynamics, likely altering future evolutionary potential.

    A similar example is famine that occurred during the Democratic Republic of Congo’s civil wars (1996-1997, 1998-2003) and led to an increase in bushmeat consumption. This wildlife hunting is known to reduce primate population sizes, making them more susceptible to local extinction.

    Even after war, landscapes experience consequences.

    For example, the demilitarized zone between North Korea and South Korea is a 160-mile (250-kilometer) barrier, established in 1953, separating the two countries. Heavily fortified with razor wire and landmines, the demilitarized zone has become a de facto nature sanctuary supporting thousands of species, including dozens of endangered species.

    The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War led to the establishment of the European Green Belt, which runs along the same path as the Iron Curtain. This protected ecological network is over 7,800 miles (12,500 kilometers) long, allowing wildlife to move freely across 24 countries in Europe. Like the Korean DMZ, the European Green Belt allows for wildlife to move, breed and exchange genes, despite political boundaries. Politics has removed human influence from these spaces, allowing them to be a safe haven for wildlife.

    While researchers have documented a number of examples of wildlife evolving in response to human history and cultural practices, there’s plenty more to uncover. Cultures differ around the world, meaning each city has its own set of variables that shape the evolutionary processes of wildlife. Understanding how these human cultural practices shape evolutionary patterns will allow people to better design cities that support both humans and the wildlife that call these places home.

    Ideas for this article were developed as part of a NSF funded Research Coordination Network (DEB 1840663). Elizabeth Carlen was funded by the Living Earth Collaborative.

    – ref. War, politics and religion shape wildlife evolution in cities – https://theconversation.com/war-politics-and-religion-shape-wildlife-evolution-in-cities-260184

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Astronomers have discovered another puzzling interstellar object − this third one is big, bright and fast

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Darryl Z. Seligman, Assistant Professor, Michigan State University

    The Haleakala Observatory, left, houses one telescope for the ATLAS system. That system first spotted the object 3I/ATLAS, which isn’t visible in this image. AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

    Astronomers manning an asteroid warning system caught a glimpse of a large, bright object zipping through the solar system late on July 1, 2025. The object’s potentially interstellar origins excited scientists across the globe, and the next morning, the European Space Agency confirmed that this object, first named A11pl3Z and then designated 3I/ATLAS, is the third ever found from outside our solar system.

    Current measurements estimate that 3I/ATLAS is about 12 miles (20 kilometers) wide, and while its path won’t take it close to Earth, it could hold clues about the nature of a previous interstellar object and about planet formation in solar systems beyond ours.

    On July 2 at 3 p.m. EDT, Mary Magnuson, an associate science editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke to Darryl Z. Seligman, an astrophysicist at Michigan State University who has been studying 3I/ATLAS since its discovery.

    What makes 3I/ATLAS different from its predecessors?

    We have discovered two interstellar objects so far, ’Oumuamua and Comet 2I/Borisov. ’Oumuamua had no dust tail and a significant nongravitational acceleration, which led to a wide variety of hypotheses regarding its origin. 2I/Borisov was very clearly a comet, though it has a somewhat unique composition compared to comets in our solar system.

    All of our preparation for the next interstellar object was preparing for something that looked like a ’Oumuamua, or something that looked like Borisov. And this thing doesn’t look like either of them, which is crazy and exciting.

    This object is shockingly bright, and it’s very far away from the Earth. It is significantly bigger than both of the interstellar objects we’ve seen – it is orders of magnitude larger than ’Oumuamua.

    For some context, ’Oumuamua was discovered when it was very close to the Earth, but this new object is so large and bright that our telescopes can see it, even though it is still much farther away. This means observatories and telescopes will be able to observe it for much longer than we could for the two previous objects.

    It’s huge and it’s much farther away, but it is also much faster.

    When I went to bed last night, I saw an alert about this object, but nobody knew what was going on yet. I have a few collaborators who figure out the orbits of things in the solar system, and I expected to wake up to them saying something like “yeah, this isn’t actually interstellar.” Because a lot of times you think you may have found something interesting, but as more data comes in, it becomes less interesting.

    Then, when I woke up at 1 a.m., my colleagues who are experts on orbits were saying things like “no, this is definitely interstellar. This is for real.”

    How can astronomers tell if something is an interstellar object?

    The eccentricity of the object’s orbit is how you know that it’s interstellar. The eccentricity refers to how noncircular an orbit is. So an eccentricity of zero is a pure circle, and as the eccentricity increases, it becomes what’s known as an ellipse – a stretched out circle.

    A hyperbolic orbit isn’t a closed loop, as this rendering of ‘Oumuamua’s trajectory shows. All the planets have oval-shaped elliptical orbits, which close in a loop. The interstellar object instead passes through but doesn’t come back around.
    Tomruen/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    And then once you get past an eccentricity of one, you go from an ellipse to a hyperbolic orbit, and that is unbound. So while an elliptical orbit is stretched out, it still orbits and comes back around. An object with a hyperbolic orbit comes through and it leaves, but it never comes back. That type of orbit tells you that it didn’t come from this solar system.

    When researchers are collecting data, they’re getting points of light on the sky, and they don’t know how far away they are. It’s not like they see them and can just tell, “oh, that’s eccentric.” What they’re seeing is how far away the object is compared with other stars in the background, what its position is and how fast it’s moving. And then from that data, they try to fit the orbit.

    This object is moving fast for how far away it is, and that’s what’s telling us that it could be hyperbolic. If something is moving fast enough, it’ll escape from the solar system. So a hyperbolic, unbound object inherently has to be moving faster.

    This is a real-time process. My collaborators have preexisting software, which will, every night, get new observations of all the small bodies and objects in the solar system. It will figure out and update what the orbits are in real time. We’re getting data points, and with more data we can refine which orbit fits the points best.

    What can scientists learn from an interstellar object?

    Objects like this are pristine, primordial remnants from the planet formation process in other planetary systems. The small bodies in our solar system have taught us quite a lot about how the planets in the solar system formed and evolved. This could be a new window into understanding planet formation throughout the galaxy.

    As we’re looking through the incoming data, we’re trying to figure out whether it’s a comet. In the next couple of weeks, there will likely be way more information available to say if it has a cometary tail like Borisov, or if it has an acceleration that’s not due to a gravitational pull, like ’Oumuamua.

    If it is a comet, researchers really want to figure out whether it’s icy. If it contains ices, that tells you a ton about it. The chemistry of these small bodies is the most important aspect when it comes to understanding planet formation, because the chemical composition tells you about the conditions the object’s solar system was in when the object formed.

    For example, if the object has a lot of ices in it, you would know that wherever it came from, it didn’t spend much time near a star, because those ices would have melted. If it has a lot of ice in it, that could tell you that it formed really far away from a star and then got ejected by something massive, such as a planet the size of Jupiter or Neptune.

    Fundamentally, this object could tell astronomers more about a population of objects that we don’t fully understand, or about the conditions in another solar system.

    We’ve had a couple of hours to get some preliminary observations. I suspect that practically every telescope is going to be looking at this object for the next couple of nights, so we’ll get much more information about it very soon.

    Darryl Z. Seligman is supported by an NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship under award AST-2303553. This research award is partially funded by a generous gift of Charles Simonyi to the NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences. The award is made in recognition of significant contributions to Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

    – ref. Astronomers have discovered another puzzling interstellar object − this third one is big, bright and fast – https://theconversation.com/astronomers-have-discovered-another-puzzling-interstellar-object-this-third-one-is-big-bright-and-fast-260391

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Parents who oppose sex education in schools often don’t discuss it at home

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Robin Pickering, Professor and Chair, Public Health, Gonzaga University

    Lawmakers and school boards across the country have established policies that limit what schools can teach about gender, sexuality and reproductive health. Alexmia/iStock via Getty Images

    Public battles over what schools can teach about sex, identity and relationships, often framed around “parental rights,” have become more intense in recent years.

    Behind the loud debate lies a quiet contradiction. Many parents who say sex education should be taught only at home don’t actually provide it there, either.

    As a scholar of sex education, I found that parents strongly opposed to comprehensive sex education in schools were the least likely to discuss health-promoting concepts such as consent, contraception, gender identity and healthy relationships. I discuss similar themes in my book, “A Modern Approach to the Birds and the Bees.”

    Comprehensive sex education delays sexual activity, increases contraceptive use and reduces teen pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection rates. It has a complex history, but has long received bipartisan support.

    In recent years, however, old debates over sex education and funding have taken a sharper turn.

    In June 2025, the Trump administration ordered California to remove gender-identity materials from sex education lessons or risk losing over US$12 million in federal funding.

    This directive is part of a broader shift. Since the early 1980s, abstinence-focused policy has existed at the federal level under Reagan with the Adolescent Family Life Act. In recent years, however, a wave of state-level legislation, often driven by conservative advocacy groups, has tried to limit what schools can teach about sexuality.

    The parents’ rights movement

    In 2023, Florida expanded its Parental Rights in Education, also known as the “Don’t Say Gay” law, to extend limits on discussing sexual orientation and gender identity to all K–12 grades. The law states that sex can be defined only as strictly binary, limits discussions of gender and sexuality, imposes rules on pronoun use and increases school board authority over curricula.

    Other states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Kentucky, have imposed similar restrictions.

    Federal, state and local efforts have sought to control or limit sex education in schools.
    tupungato/iStock via Getty Images

    Local school boards in states such as Florida, Idaho, Tennessee and Utah have removed textbooks, cut health courses and banned books with LGBTQ+ themes. Conservative, local school boards are reshaping sex education nationwide even though the vast majority of Americans oppose efforts to restrict books in public schools and are confident in public schools’ selection of books.

    Who’s having the talk?

    A national survey on parental attitudes and beliefs about school-based sex education revealed that some families do not practice what they preach.
    diane39/iStock via Getty Images

    As laws limit teaching about sex, gender and identity, I wanted to explore whether parents are stepping in to fill the gaps.

    About 10% of the surveyed parents said sex education should happen only at home. Those parents were also most likely to say they “almost never” or “never” discussed sex, sexuality and romance with their children.

    By contrast, parents who supported comprehensive, school-based sex ed were significantly more likely to discuss subjects including consent, contraception, identity and healthy relationships at home.

    The survey also found that parents who opposed comprehensive sex education were more likely to believe commonly circulated misinformation, such as the idea that talking about sex encourages early sexual activity and that condoms are not effective.

    These preliminary findings align with a robust body of peer-reviewed literature suggesting that parents who are more resistant to school-based sex ed are also less likely and less equipped to have open, informed conversations at home.

    These findings point to a gap between expert recommendations and what parents do.

    At the federal level, the Trump administration slashed funding for comprehensive sex education. The administration also expanded funding for abstinence-only programs, despite evidence of their ineffectiveness.

    Risks rise without education

    Teenagers learn about sex online, and pornography is among the top sources of information.
    redhumv?E+ via Getty Images

    A 2022 report from Common Sense Media found that nearly half of teens report learning about sex online, with pornography among the top sources.

    Research indicates that even when schools and families avoid topics related to sexuality, young people still encounter sexual content. Yet, advocacy groups such as Moms for Liberty support the removal of what it considers “age-inappropriate” or “sexually explicit” materials from classrooms and school libraries.

    The absence of structured, accurate education likely has implications for public health. According to the CDC, individuals ages 15 to 24 account for nearly half of all new sexually transmitted infections in the U.S.

    Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas have some of the highest teen birth and sexually transmitted infection rates. Yet, these states are also among those with the most restrictive sex education policies and poorest sex ed ratings.

    These communities also face higher poverty, limited health care access and lower educational attainment. The combination deepens health disparities.

    LGBTQ+ youth are especially vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and related health challenges. This vulnerability is compounded in regions with limited access to inclusive education.

    A 2023 CDC report found that students who receive inclusive sex education feel more connected to school and experience lower rates of depression and bullying. These benefits are especially critical for LGBTQ+ youth.

    As debates over sex education continue, I believe it’s important for policymakers, school boards and communities to weigh parental input and public health data.

    I am the author of the book, “A Modern Approach to the Birds and the Bees” which I mentioned in the article and do benefit from its sale.

    – ref. Parents who oppose sex education in schools often don’t discuss it at home – https://theconversation.com/parents-who-oppose-sex-education-in-schools-often-dont-discuss-it-at-home-258892

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Lyssavirus is rare, but deadly. What should you do if a bat bites you?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vinod Balasubramaniam, Associate Professor (Molecular Virology), Monash University

    Ken Griffiths/Getty Images

    A man in his 50s has died from lyssavirus in New South Wales after being bitten by a bat several months ago.

    This is Australia’s fourth human case of bat lyssavirus and the first confirmed case in NSW since the virus was first identified in 1996 in a black flying fox in Queensland.

    So what is lyssavirus? And how can you protect yourself if you come into contact with a bat?

    A close relative of rabies

    Australian bat lyssavirus belongs to the Rhabdoviridae family, the same group of viruses that causes rabies.

    It primarily infects bats. Active monitoring suggests fewer than 1% of healthy bats carry the virus, though prevalence rises to 5–10% in sick or injured bats.

    In bats, the virus often causes no obvious symptoms, though some show neurological signs such as disorientation, aggression, muscle spasms and paralysis. Some will die.

    The virus has been confirmed in all four mainland flying fox species (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus, P. scapulatus and P. conspicillatus) as well as the yellow-bellied sheathtail bat (Saccolaimus flaviventris), a species of microbat.

    However, serological evidence – where scientists test for antibodies in bats’ blood – suggests other microbats could be susceptible too. So we should be cautious with all Australian bat species when it comes to lyssavirus.

    Rare, but potentially deadly

    Unlike rabies, which causes roughly 59,000 human deaths annually, predominantly in Africa and Asia, human infection with bat lyssavirus is extremely rare.

    Australian bat lyssavirus, as the name suggests, is unique to Australia. But other bat lyssaviruses, such as European bat lyssavirus, have similarly caused rare human infections.

    Human infection with bat lyssavirus occurs through direct contact with infected bat saliva via bites, scratches or open skin. It can also occur if our mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth) are exposed to bat saliva.

    There’s no risk associated with bat faeces, urine, blood, or casual proximity to roosts.

    If someone has been exposed, there’s an incubation period which can range from weeks to more than two years. During this time the virus slowly moves through the body’s nerves to the brain, staying hidden and symptom-free.

    Treating the virus during the incubation period can prevent the illness. But if it’s not treated, symptoms are serious and it’s invariably fatal.

    The nature of the illness in humans mirrors rabies, beginning with flu-like symptoms (fever, headache, fatigue), then quickly progressing to severe neurological disease, including paralysis, delirium, convulsions, and loss of consciousness. Death generally occurs within 1–2 weeks of symptom onset.

    All four recorded human cases in Australia – three in Queensland (in 1996, 1998 and 2013) and the recent NSW case – have been fatal.

    There’s no effective treatment once symptoms develop

    If someone is potentially exposed to bat lyssavirus and seeks medical attention, they can be treated with post-exposure prophylaxis, consisting of rabies antibodies and the rabies vaccine.

    This intervention is highly effective if initiated promptly – preferably within 48 hours, and no later than seven days post-exposure – before the virus enters the central nervous system.

    But no effective treatment exists for Australian bat lyssavirus once symptoms develop. Emerging research on monoclonal antibodies offers potential future therapies, however these are not yet available.

    So what’s the best protection? And what if a bat bites you?

    Pre-exposure rabies vaccination, involving three doses over one month, is recommended for high-risk groups. This includes veterinarians, animal handlers, wildlife rehabilitators, and laboratory workers handling lyssaviruses.

    It’s important for members of the public to avoid all direct contact with bats. Only vaccinated, trained professionals, such as wildlife carers or veterinarians, should handle bats.

    Public education campaigns are essential to reduce risky interactions, especially in bat-populated areas.

    If you get bitten or scratched by a bat, it’s vital to act immediately. Wash the wound thoroughly with soap and water for at least 15 minutes, apply an antiseptic (such as betadine), and seek urgent medical attention.

    This tragic case in NSW underscores that while extremely rare, bat lyssavirus is an important public health threat. We need to see enhanced public awareness and ensure vaccination for high-risk groups, alongside ongoing bat monitoring and research into new treatments.

    Vinod Balasubramaniam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lyssavirus is rare, but deadly. What should you do if a bat bites you? – https://theconversation.com/lyssavirus-is-rare-but-deadly-what-should-you-do-if-a-bat-bites-you-260495

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Clift, Lecturer in Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

    Thomas Yau/Shutterstock

    The demise of one of Hong Kong’s last major pro-democracy parties, the League of Social Democrats, is the latest blow to the city’s crumbling democratic credentials.

    The league is the third major opposition party to disband this year. The announcement coincides with the fifth anniversary this week of the national security law, which was imposed by Beijing to suppress pro-democracy activity.

    The loss of this grassroots party, historically populated by bold and colourful characters, vividly illustrates the dying of the light in once-sparkling Hong Kong.

    The city is now greyed and labouring under a repressive internal security regime that has crushed civil society’s freedoms and democratic ambitions.

    Authoritarian crackdown

    The world witnessed Hong Kong at its brightest during the 2014 Umbrella Movement, when hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters camped out on city streets for several months.

    We also saw the brutal sequel in 2019, when paramilitarised police sought to put down further civil unrest and protesters fought back.

    Since then, “lawfare” has been the preferred strategy of China’s national government and its Hong Kong satellite. The new approach has included a vast security apparatus and aggressive prosecutions.

    When Beijing intervened in July 2020, it was nominally about national security. In reality, the new law was designed and used to bring Hongkongers to heel.

    Civil freedoms were further curtailed by a home-grown security law, introduced last year to fill the gaps.

    International standards such as the Johannesburg Principles, endorsed by the United Nations, require national security laws to be compatible with democratic principles, not to be used to eliminate democratic activity.

    Prison or exile

    The League of Social Democrats occupied the populist left of the pro-democracy spectrum. It stood apart from contemporaries such as the Democratic Party and the Civic Party, which were dominated by professionals and elites, and have since been disbanded.

    The League was most notably represented by the likes of “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung– known for his Che Guevara t-shirts and banana-throwing – and broadcaster and journalism academic Raymond Wong Yuk-man, also known as “Mad Dog”.

    Despite their rambunctious styles, these men had real political credentials and were repeatedly elected to legislative office. But Leung is now imprisoned for subversion, while Wong has left for Taiwan.

    Leung Kwok-hung was sentenced to subversion under the national security law.
    Edwin Kwok/Shutterstock

    Party leaders such as Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit and Figo Chan Ho-wun were also prominent within the Civil Human Rights Front. It was responsible for the annual July 1 protest march that attracted hundreds of thousands of people every year. The front is yet another pro-democracy organisation that has dissolved.

    Sham and Chan have been jailed for subversion and unlawful assembly under the colonial-era Public Order Ordinance, which has been used to prosecute hundreds of activists.

    Zero tolerance

    The demise of these diverse organisations are not natural occurrences, but the result of a deliberate authoritarian programme.

    Under China, Hong Kong’s political system has been half democratic at best. But it now resembles something from the darkest days of colonialism, with pre-approved candidates, appointed legislators and zero tolerance for critical voices.

    The effort to eliminate opposition has seen the pro-independence National Party formally banned and scores of pro-democracy figures jailed after mass trials.

    Activists and watchdogs are stymied by the national security law. It criminalises – among other things – engagement and lobbying with international organisations and foreign governments.

    Distinctive voices such as law professor Benny Tai Yiu-ting, media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and firebrand politician Edward Leung Tin-kei have been jailed and silenced, as have many moderates and lesser-known figures.

    Shattered dreams

    Then there are the millions of ordinary Hongkongers whose dreams of a liberal and self-governing region under mainland China’s umbrella – as promised in the lead up to the 1997 handover – have been shattered.

    Some activists have fled overseas. The more outspoken are the subjects of Hong Kong arrest warrants.

    But countless ex-protesters remain in the city, where it is impermissible to speak critically of power, and where mandatory patriotic education may ensure new generations will never even think to speak up.

    Much blame lies with the British, who failed to institute democratic elections until the last gasp of their rule in Hong Kong. This was despite the colony tolerating liberalism and habit-forming democratic activity over a longer period.

    Now China, after almost three decades in charge, has responded to democratic challenges by defaulting to authoritarian control. Hong Kong can only be grateful it has been spared a Tiananmen-style incident. Nor has it experienced the full genocidal extent of the so-called “peripheries playbook” Beijing has used in Tibet and Xinjiang.

    Turmoil and authoritarian swings in the United States and elsewhere give China an opportunity to present as a voice of reason on the international stage.

    But we should not forget its commitment to repressive politics at home, nor what its support of belligerent regimes such as Putin’s Russia might mean for Taiwan, the region and the world.

    Above all, we should not forget the people, in Hong Kong and elsewhere, who made it their life’s work to achieve democracy only to be rewarded with prison or exile.

    Brendan Clift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds – https://theconversation.com/hong-kongs-light-fades-as-another-pro-democracy-party-folds-260186

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Clift, Lecturer in Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

    Thomas Yau/Shutterstock

    The demise of one of Hong Kong’s last major pro-democracy parties, the League of Social Democrats, is the latest blow to the city’s crumbling democratic credentials.

    The league is the third major opposition party to disband this year. The announcement coincides with the fifth anniversary this week of the national security law, which was imposed by Beijing to suppress pro-democracy activity.

    The loss of this grassroots party, historically populated by bold and colourful characters, vividly illustrates the dying of the light in once-sparkling Hong Kong.

    The city is now greyed and labouring under a repressive internal security regime that has crushed civil society’s freedoms and democratic ambitions.

    Authoritarian crackdown

    The world witnessed Hong Kong at its brightest during the 2014 Umbrella Movement, when hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters camped out on city streets for several months.

    We also saw the brutal sequel in 2019, when paramilitarised police sought to put down further civil unrest and protesters fought back.

    Since then, “lawfare” has been the preferred strategy of China’s national government and its Hong Kong satellite. The new approach has included a vast security apparatus and aggressive prosecutions.

    When Beijing intervened in July 2020, it was nominally about national security. In reality, the new law was designed and used to bring Hongkongers to heel.

    Civil freedoms were further curtailed by a home-grown security law, introduced last year to fill the gaps.

    International standards such as the Johannesburg Principles, endorsed by the United Nations, require national security laws to be compatible with democratic principles, not to be used to eliminate democratic activity.

    Prison or exile

    The League of Social Democrats occupied the populist left of the pro-democracy spectrum. It stood apart from contemporaries such as the Democratic Party and the Civic Party, which were dominated by professionals and elites, and have since been disbanded.

    The League was most notably represented by the likes of “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung– known for his Che Guevara t-shirts and banana-throwing – and broadcaster and journalism academic Raymond Wong Yuk-man, also known as “Mad Dog”.

    Despite their rambunctious styles, these men had real political credentials and were repeatedly elected to legislative office. But Leung is now imprisoned for subversion, while Wong has left for Taiwan.

    Leung Kwok-hung was sentenced to subversion under the national security law.
    Edwin Kwok/Shutterstock

    Party leaders such as Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit and Figo Chan Ho-wun were also prominent within the Civil Human Rights Front. It was responsible for the annual July 1 protest march that attracted hundreds of thousands of people every year. The front is yet another pro-democracy organisation that has dissolved.

    Sham and Chan have been jailed for subversion and unlawful assembly under the colonial-era Public Order Ordinance, which has been used to prosecute hundreds of activists.

    Zero tolerance

    The demise of these diverse organisations are not natural occurrences, but the result of a deliberate authoritarian programme.

    Under China, Hong Kong’s political system has been half democratic at best. But it now resembles something from the darkest days of colonialism, with pre-approved candidates, appointed legislators and zero tolerance for critical voices.

    The effort to eliminate opposition has seen the pro-independence National Party formally banned and scores of pro-democracy figures jailed after mass trials.

    Activists and watchdogs are stymied by the national security law. It criminalises – among other things – engagement and lobbying with international organisations and foreign governments.

    Distinctive voices such as law professor Benny Tai Yiu-ting, media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and firebrand politician Edward Leung Tin-kei have been jailed and silenced, as have many moderates and lesser-known figures.

    Shattered dreams

    Then there are the millions of ordinary Hongkongers whose dreams of a liberal and self-governing region under mainland China’s umbrella – as promised in the lead up to the 1997 handover – have been shattered.

    Some activists have fled overseas. The more outspoken are the subjects of Hong Kong arrest warrants.

    But countless ex-protesters remain in the city, where it is impermissible to speak critically of power, and where mandatory patriotic education may ensure new generations will never even think to speak up.

    Much blame lies with the British, who failed to institute democratic elections until the last gasp of their rule in Hong Kong. This was despite the colony tolerating liberalism and habit-forming democratic activity over a longer period.

    Now China, after almost three decades in charge, has responded to democratic challenges by defaulting to authoritarian control. Hong Kong can only be grateful it has been spared a Tiananmen-style incident. Nor has it experienced the full genocidal extent of the so-called “peripheries playbook” Beijing has used in Tibet and Xinjiang.

    Turmoil and authoritarian swings in the United States and elsewhere give China an opportunity to present as a voice of reason on the international stage.

    But we should not forget its commitment to repressive politics at home, nor what its support of belligerent regimes such as Putin’s Russia might mean for Taiwan, the region and the world.

    Above all, we should not forget the people, in Hong Kong and elsewhere, who made it their life’s work to achieve democracy only to be rewarded with prison or exile.

    Brendan Clift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds – https://theconversation.com/hong-kongs-light-fades-as-another-pro-democracy-party-folds-260186

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Clift, Lecturer in Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

    Thomas Yau/Shutterstock

    The demise of one of Hong Kong’s last major pro-democracy parties, the League of Social Democrats, is the latest blow to the city’s crumbling democratic credentials.

    The league is the third major opposition party to disband this year. The announcement coincides with the fifth anniversary this week of the national security law, which was imposed by Beijing to suppress pro-democracy activity.

    The loss of this grassroots party, historically populated by bold and colourful characters, vividly illustrates the dying of the light in once-sparkling Hong Kong.

    The city is now greyed and labouring under a repressive internal security regime that has crushed civil society’s freedoms and democratic ambitions.

    Authoritarian crackdown

    The world witnessed Hong Kong at its brightest during the 2014 Umbrella Movement, when hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters camped out on city streets for several months.

    We also saw the brutal sequel in 2019, when paramilitarised police sought to put down further civil unrest and protesters fought back.

    Since then, “lawfare” has been the preferred strategy of China’s national government and its Hong Kong satellite. The new approach has included a vast security apparatus and aggressive prosecutions.

    When Beijing intervened in July 2020, it was nominally about national security. In reality, the new law was designed and used to bring Hongkongers to heel.

    Civil freedoms were further curtailed by a home-grown security law, introduced last year to fill the gaps.

    International standards such as the Johannesburg Principles, endorsed by the United Nations, require national security laws to be compatible with democratic principles, not to be used to eliminate democratic activity.

    Prison or exile

    The League of Social Democrats occupied the populist left of the pro-democracy spectrum. It stood apart from contemporaries such as the Democratic Party and the Civic Party, which were dominated by professionals and elites, and have since been disbanded.

    The League was most notably represented by the likes of “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung– known for his Che Guevara t-shirts and banana-throwing – and broadcaster and journalism academic Raymond Wong Yuk-man, also known as “Mad Dog”.

    Despite their rambunctious styles, these men had real political credentials and were repeatedly elected to legislative office. But Leung is now imprisoned for subversion, while Wong has left for Taiwan.

    Leung Kwok-hung was sentenced to subversion under the national security law.
    Edwin Kwok/Shutterstock

    Party leaders such as Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit and Figo Chan Ho-wun were also prominent within the Civil Human Rights Front. It was responsible for the annual July 1 protest march that attracted hundreds of thousands of people every year. The front is yet another pro-democracy organisation that has dissolved.

    Sham and Chan have been jailed for subversion and unlawful assembly under the colonial-era Public Order Ordinance, which has been used to prosecute hundreds of activists.

    Zero tolerance

    The demise of these diverse organisations are not natural occurrences, but the result of a deliberate authoritarian programme.

    Under China, Hong Kong’s political system has been half democratic at best. But it now resembles something from the darkest days of colonialism, with pre-approved candidates, appointed legislators and zero tolerance for critical voices.

    The effort to eliminate opposition has seen the pro-independence National Party formally banned and scores of pro-democracy figures jailed after mass trials.

    Activists and watchdogs are stymied by the national security law. It criminalises – among other things – engagement and lobbying with international organisations and foreign governments.

    Distinctive voices such as law professor Benny Tai Yiu-ting, media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and firebrand politician Edward Leung Tin-kei have been jailed and silenced, as have many moderates and lesser-known figures.

    Shattered dreams

    Then there are the millions of ordinary Hongkongers whose dreams of a liberal and self-governing region under mainland China’s umbrella – as promised in the lead up to the 1997 handover – have been shattered.

    Some activists have fled overseas. The more outspoken are the subjects of Hong Kong arrest warrants.

    But countless ex-protesters remain in the city, where it is impermissible to speak critically of power, and where mandatory patriotic education may ensure new generations will never even think to speak up.

    Much blame lies with the British, who failed to institute democratic elections until the last gasp of their rule in Hong Kong. This was despite the colony tolerating liberalism and habit-forming democratic activity over a longer period.

    Now China, after almost three decades in charge, has responded to democratic challenges by defaulting to authoritarian control. Hong Kong can only be grateful it has been spared a Tiananmen-style incident. Nor has it experienced the full genocidal extent of the so-called “peripheries playbook” Beijing has used in Tibet and Xinjiang.

    Turmoil and authoritarian swings in the United States and elsewhere give China an opportunity to present as a voice of reason on the international stage.

    But we should not forget its commitment to repressive politics at home, nor what its support of belligerent regimes such as Putin’s Russia might mean for Taiwan, the region and the world.

    Above all, we should not forget the people, in Hong Kong and elsewhere, who made it their life’s work to achieve democracy only to be rewarded with prison or exile.

    Brendan Clift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hong Kong’s light fades as another pro-democracy party folds – https://theconversation.com/hong-kongs-light-fades-as-another-pro-democracy-party-folds-260186

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Back to Back Theatre tackles an epic Shakespearian conflict – set in a factory, with cardboard props

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Hunter, Senior Lecturer in Art and Performance, Deakin University

    Jeff Busby/Back To Back Theatre/ACMI

    Back to Back Theatre is one of Australia’s national treasures. Over 30 years this dynamic Geelong-based company – an ensemble of actors who are perceived to have intellectual disabilities – has built a dynamic body of innovative work renowned for its formal experimentation.

    Led by director Bruce Gladwin, the company is internationally acclaimed, including winning the International Ibsen Award in 2022 and the Venice Biennale Golden Lion for Lifetime Achievement in Theatre in 2024.

    Commissioned by ACMI, Back to Back’s latest offering is a screen project that reenacts a section of Shakespeare’s Henry V: the battle of Agincourt.

    Back to Back’s Agincourt draws from iconic film performances such as Laurence Olivier’s Henry V, but places the action in a factory in North Geelong. This industrial re-imagining is replete with hi-viz vests, concrete floors, and a very idiosyncratic costume design consisting of coats of armour made entirely out of cardboard.

    Agincourt begins with the desperate English monarch Henry V (Sarah Mainwaring) calling to his exhausted troops to take up arms against the marauding French, who are marching determinedly down the suburban street towards them.

    The English prepare for war, fortifying the factory space and gathering themselves for an inevitable onslaught, and a heinous confrontation ensues.

    Language and time

    More than 100 community members contributed to this work. A key aim was to ensure North Geelong residents and factory workers were given the opportunity to work as an artist, either in front of the camera or behind the scenes. The audition process included the proviso that every person made their own costume.

    Gladwin works closely with cinematographer/editor Rhian Hinkley and the actors to employ the elements of language and time in very specific ways.

    The performers’ natural speech patterns bring a real spaciousness in the vocal delivery to Shakespeare’s lines. There are also subtitles throughout the work.

    At times a split screen is used which repeats action at slightly differing angles, often in extreme closeup.

    These elements crystallise the audience’s focus, bringing a particular attention to the rich language of Shakespeare. We slow down, we read, we listen. We have time to let the words land, and to see the actors in their own unguarded, vulnerable moments.

    We see the actors in their own unguarded, vulnerable moments.
    Jeff Busby/Back To Back Theatre/ACMI

    The performances are strong. In particular, Mainwaring as a set-upon Prince Hal is compelling. Her laser stare is juxtaposed with a slightly wavering physicality which brings the first soliloquy into monumental, rousing proportion as she rallies the troops with the ominous pronouncement “We shall be remembered”.

    Do-it-yourself aesthetic

    Design and sound are front and centre in this 23-minute film. The actors worked with local company Boxwars to make their costumes and props, and Agincourt’s factory setting provides the background for the do-it-yourself aesthetic which features an impressive array of ornately decorated cardboard costumes.

    Props are also made from cardboard and we see swirling maces, pointed lances, bows and arrows, and fearfully brandished swords. The detail is brilliant.

    It is hard to describe the satisfaction of viewing a violent battle staged with cardboard – an inherently theatrical material which has the capacity to be firm and resilient but also to disintegrate spectacularly over time.

    (If you aren’t aware of the delightful cardboard community that is Boxwars, I highly recommend checking out their numerous YouTube videos: you won’t be disappointed.)

    A mythic, epic conflict

    The idea of staging an epic conflict in such a playful way seems outrageous, but there is a mythic quality to the work – the call to arms, the messy scrabbling, the physicality – that transcends the silliness. In the end, there is a kind of gravitas to the action.

    Over the course of the film, Agincourt moves from a grand and heroic sensibility to a sweaty, bloody depiction of war.

    Helmeted riders on horses (made from old mattresses) are pushed into the fray amid forklifts, trolleys and pallets of yarn. Beautiful woven fabrics play backdrop to regal pronouncements as the bricked walls of this industrial space are transformed into a chaotic battlefield.

    The actors worked with local company Boxwars to make their costumes and props.
    Jeff Busby/Back To Back Theatre/ACMI

    Gladwin uses his cast of thousands (and stunt directors) to great effect, creating phalanxes of archers raising bows in unison, or lines of soldiers in rows, swords at the ready.

    These orderly patterns are juxtaposed with fight scenes which become more and more volatile as soldiers wade through pulped paper-mud and drag bodies across the concrete floor.

    The sound design is suitably battle worn, accompanying the slow motion death scenes and bloodied faces with war cries, horses galloping and whinnying and the squelch of bodily disembowelment.

    Towards the end of the film, the factory becomes, once again, a work space.

    As the workers in this supported employment service go about their tasks – stripping mattresses, recycling materials, packaging kindling, objects deconstructed and re-purposed – a discussion ensues about how the workers want to be treated: as individuals … or as soldiers.

    Agincourt can be read as a contemporary comment on the viciousness and futility of war. But it is also a charge to action for those whose influence has been underestimated.

    Agincourt is at ACMI, Melbourne, until February 1 2026.

    Kate Hunter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Back to Back Theatre tackles an epic Shakespearian conflict – set in a factory, with cardboard props – https://theconversation.com/back-to-back-theatre-tackles-an-epic-shakespearian-conflict-set-in-a-factory-with-cardboard-props-257545

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Avoid bad breath, don’t pick partners when drunk: ancient dating tips to find modern love

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

    Henryk Siemiradzki via Wikimedia Commons

    To love and be loved is something most people want in their lives.

    In the modern world, we often see stories about the difficulties of finding love and the trials of dating and marriage. Sometimes, the person we love doesn’t love us. Sometimes, we don’t love the person who loves us.

    Ancient Greeks and Romans also had a lot to say about this subject. In fact, most of the issues people face today in their search for love are already mentioned in ancient Greek and Roman literature.

    So, what did they say? And is the advice they put forward still relevant for modern people?

    Advice for finding a lover

    The Roman poet Ovid (43BCE–17CE) wrote a poem called The Art of Love (Ars Amatoria). In it, he offered advice for those who are still single.

    First, Ovid says, you should make an effort to find someone you’re interested in. Your lover “will not come floating down to you through the tenuous air, she must be sought”.

    As suitable places to find a lover, Ovid recommends walking in porticos and gardens, attending the theatre, or (surprisingly enough) lingering near law courts.

    You need to catch someone’s eye and then invent an excuse to talk with them, he says.

    Seek your lover in the daytime, says Ovid. Be careful of the night. You won’t choose the right person if you’re drunk. And you can’t see their face properly if it’s too dark – they might be uglier than you think.

    Second, Ovid says you need to look presentable. Make sure your clothes are clean and you have a good haircut. Moreover, keep yourself groomed properly at all times:

    Do not let your nails project, and let them be free of dirt; nor let any hair be in the hollow of your nostrils. Let not the breath of your mouth be sour and unpleasing.

    Ovid’s The Art of Love may be regarded as a kind of love manual. But aside from making personal efforts to find a lover, people could also use matchmakers.

    However, matchmaking was a difficult process. Sometimes matchmakers didn’t tell the truth about the situations of the parties involved. So the Athenian writer Xenophon (430–353 BCE) says people were sometimes “victims of deception” in the matchmaking process.

    What if you’re not in love?

    The ancients recognised that not being in love can be a problem. They thought it bad for your mental and physical health, but also for society more broadly.

    For example, the Roman writer Claudius Aelian (2nd–3rd century CE) in his Historical Miscellany says soldiers who are in love will fight better than soldiers who are not in love:

    In the heat of battle when war brings men into combat, a man who is not in love could not match one who is. The man untouched by love avoids and runs away from the man who loves, as if he were an outsider uninitiated into the god’s rites, and his bravery depends on his character and physical strength.

    According to Aelian, the Spartans had a punishment for men who did not fall in love:

    Any man of good appearance and character who did not fall in love with someone well-bred was also fined, because despite his excellence he did not love anyone […] lovers’ affection for their beloved has a remarkable power of stimulating the virtues.

    So, when two people are in love, they can inspire each other and bring out the best in one another. Being in love can help a person become better and achieve more.

    Fighting for and keeping a lover

    If we are lucky, the person we love will also love us back, and we won’t have any love rivals.

    But what happens when the person we love is also loved by someone else? We may need to put in more effort to win the affection of that person, but sometimes this brings us into conflicts.

    For example, the Roman orator and politician Marcus Tullius Cicero (106–43 BCE), in his On the Orator, tells how Gaius Memmius, Roman tribune of the year 111 BCE, apparently took a bite out of his love rival’s arm, “when he had a quarrel with him at Tarracina over a girlfriend”.

    Some ways to keep one’s lover interested that are mentioned in ancient sources include showing off one’s wealth.

    For example, in one of the plays of the poet Alexis (375–275 BCE) a young man who is in love puts on a large banquet to impress his girlfriend with a display of wealth. Engagements were at that time sometimes cancelled if it turned out the husband was too poor.

    Of course, things did not always work out, and people had grievances against former lovers. One particularly famous invective was from the poet Martial (38–104 CE) to a woman called Manneia:

    Manneia, your little dog licks your face and lips. Small wonder that a dog likes eating dung!

    Timeless concerns

    Today, we often see debates about whether it’s better to stay single or get into a relationship.

    The same goes for antiquity. In the 4th-century BCE play Arrephoros or The Pipe Girl by poet Menander, one character says:

    If you’ve got any sense, you won’t get married […] I’m married myself – which is why I’m advising you not to do it.

    Others lamented that they missed their opportunity for love. So the poet Pindar (6th–5th century BCE) wrote a poem regretting that he could not make the much younger Theoxenus his boyfriend:

    You should have picked love’s flowers at the right time, my heart, when you were young. But as for the sparkling rays from Theoxenus’ eyes, whoever looks on them and is not roiled with longing has a black heart forged with cold fire out of steel or iron.

    Clearly, finding a lover was as difficult then as it is now.

    Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Avoid bad breath, don’t pick partners when drunk: ancient dating tips to find modern love – https://theconversation.com/avoid-bad-breath-dont-pick-partners-when-drunk-ancient-dating-tips-to-find-modern-love-250792

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Astronomers have spied an interstellar object zooming through the Solar System

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirsten Banks, Lecturer, School of Science, Computing and Engineering Technologies, Swinburne University of Technology

    K Ly / Deep Random Survey

    This week, astronomers spotted the third known interstellar visitor to our Solar System.

    First detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on July 1, the cosmic interloper was given the temporary name A11pl3Z. Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies and the International Astronomical Union (IAU) have confirmed the find, and the object now has an official designation: I3/ATLAS.

    The orbital path of I3/ATLAS through the Solar System.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech, CC BY-NC

    There are a few strong clues that suggest 3I/ATLAS came from outside the Solar System.

    First, it’s moving really fast. Current observations show it speeding through space at around 245,000km per hour. That’s more than enough to escape the Sun’s gravity.

    An object near Earth’s orbit would only need to be travelling at just over 150,000km/h to break free from the Solar System.

    Second, 3I/ATLAS has a wildly eccentric orbit around the Sun. Eccentricity measures how “stretched” an orbit is: 0 eccentricity is a perfect circle, and anything up to 1 is an increasingly strung-out ellipse. Above 1 is an orbit that is not bound to the Sun.

    3I/ATLAS has an estimated eccentricity of 6.3, by far the highest ever recorded for any object in the Solar System.

    Has anything like this happened before?

    An artist’s impression of the first confirmed interstellar object, 1I/‘Oumuamua.
    ESO/M. Kornmesser, CC BY

    The first interstellar object spotted in our Solar System was the cigar-shaped ‘Oumuamua, discovered in 2017 by the Pan-STARRS1 telescope in Hawaii. Scientists tracked it for 80 days before eventually confirming it came from interstellar space.

    The interstellar comet I2/Borisov, imaged by the Hubble Space Telescope.
    NASA, ESA, and D. Jewitt (UCLA), CC BY-NC

    The second interstellar visitor, comet 2I/Borisov, was discovered two years later by amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov. This time it only took astronomers a few weeks to confirm it came from outside the Solar System.

    This time, the interstellar origin of I3/ATLAS has been confirmed in a matter of days.

    How did it get here?

    We have only ever seen three interstellar visitors (including I3/ATLAS), so it’s hard to know exactly how they made their way here.

    However, recent research published in The Planetary Science Journal suggests these objects might be more common than we once thought. In particular, they may come from relatively nearby star systems such as Alpha Centauri (our nearest interstellar neighbour, a mere 4.4 light years away).

    Alpha Centauri A and Alpha Centauri B, from the triple star system Alpha Centauri.
    ESA/Hubble & NASA, CC BY

    Alpha Centauri is slowly moving closer to us, with its closest approach expected in about 28,000 years. If it flings out material in the same way our Solar System does, scientists estimate around a million objects from Alpha Centauri larger than 100 metres in diameter could already be in the outer reaches of our Solar System. That number could increase tenfold as Alpha Centauri gets closer.

    Most of this material would have been ejected at relatively low speeds, less than 2km/s, making it more likely to drift into our cosmic neighbourhood over time and not dramatically zoom in and out of the Solar System like I3/ATLAS appears to be doing. While the chance of one of these objects coming close to the Sun is extremely small, the study suggests a few tiny meteors from Alpha Centauri, likely no bigger than grains of sand, may already hit Earth’s atmosphere every year.

    Why is this interesting?

    Discovering new interstellar visitors like 3I/ATLAS is thrilling, not just because they’re rare, but because each one offers a unique glimpse into the wider galaxy. Every confirmed interstellar object expands our catalogue and helps scientists better understand the nature of these visitors, how they travel through space, and where they might have come from.

    A swarm of new asteroids discovered by the NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

    Thanks to powerful new observatories such as the NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory, our ability to detect these elusive objects is rapidly improving. In fact, during its first 10 hours of test imaging, Rubin revealed 2,104 previously unknown asteroids.

    This is an astonishing preview of what’s to come. With its wide field of view and constant sky coverage, Rubin is expected to revolutionise our search for interstellar objects, potentially turning rare discoveries into routine ones.

    What now?

    There’s still plenty left to uncover about 3I/ATLAS. Right now, it’s officially classified as a comet by the IAU Minor Planet Center.

    But some scientists argue it might actually be an asteroid, roughly 20km across, based on the lack of typical comet-like features such as a glowing coma or a tail. More observations will be needed to confirm its nature.

    Currently, 3I/ATLAS is inbound, just inside Jupiter’s orbit. It’s expected to reach its closest point to the Sun, slightly closer than the planet Mars, on October 29. After that, it will swing back out towards deep space, making its closest approach to Earth in December. (It will pose no threat to our planet.)

    Whether it’s a comet or an asteroid, 3I/ATLAS is a messenger from another star system. For now, these sightings are rare – though as next-generation observatories such as Rubin swing into operation, we may discover interstellar companions all around.

    Kirsten Banks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Astronomers have spied an interstellar object zooming through the Solar System – https://theconversation.com/astronomers-have-spied-an-interstellar-object-zooming-through-the-solar-system-260422

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s new lung cancer screening program has chosen simplicity over equity, and we’re concerned

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa J. Whop, Associate Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Yardhura Walani, National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research, Australian National University

    Thurtell/Getty Images

    Australia’s lung cancer screening program launched on July 1, and marks real progress and opportunity.

    It aims to reduce the number of people dying from lung cancer by offering regular low-dose CT scans to people who smoke, and those who have quit. The aim is to detect and treat cancer early before it has spread.

    But the program’s design may further disadvantage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, who are disproportionately affected by lung cancer.

    So Australia’s first new cancer screening program in almost 20 years risks entrenching health inequities rather than addressing them.

    Lung cancer is a particular burden

    Lung cancer is the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer death for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are 2.1 times more likely to be diagnosed with lung cancer, and 1.8 times likely to die from it, compared with non-Indigenous Australians.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are also more likely to be diagnosed with lung cancer at a younger age than non-Indigenous Australians.

    Understanding the broader context of lung cancer risk among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples is crucial.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have been paid in tobacco rations rather than wages up until the 1960s, excluded from economic and health systems, and targeted by tobacco industry marketing.

    Indigenous-led tobacco control and quit-smoking programs, such as the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program, have made significant progress in reducing smoking rates. Indigenous communities are leading the resistance against tobacco industry harms.

    However, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples face major barriers to lung cancer screening. This is particularly in rural and remote areas where access to GPs, radiology services and culturally safe care is limited.

    Lung cancer screening should account for this

    Initially, the lung cancer screening program was designed with a lower screening age for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – 50 years compared with 55 years for non-Indigenous Australians. This made sense in the face of the earlier and higher risk of lung cancer.

    However, the Medical Services Advisory Committee, the body responsible for assessing applications for public funding, removed this risk-based distinction. Now there’s a general age eligibility of 50-70 years.

    This is a shift from equity (fairness) to equality (sameness). In health, treating everyone equally deepens inequities.

    By contrast, many public health programs strive for equity and reflect the differing needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. For instance, heart health checks and many vaccines are offered to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples at a younger age.

    There are also possible consequences of lowering the screening age for non-Indigenous Australians from 55 (as originally intended) to 50. Cancer Australia’s report warned this would not provide a favourable balance of benefits and harms, nor would it be cost-effective.

    In this lower-risk population, this could increase the likelihood of detecting slow-growing lung nodules unlikely to cause harm. This can lead to unnecessary tests and procedures, anxiety, psychological distress, overtreatment and even harm.

    While Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples can also experience these potential harms, the higher risk of lung cancer earlier means the potential benefit from early detection outweighs these risks.

    Let’s call it for what it is – structural racism

    So current eligibility criteria expands the eligibility for lower risk groups. Yet it ignores Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ higher risk and cumulative impacts of remoteness, limited access to health services and other health conditions.

    This decision significantly increases the number of people accessing the program. While this may appear equal on the surface, it risks a misallocation of limited health system resources, particularly in an already overstretched health system.

    That’s a clear example of structural racism – when policies that seem neutral actually uphold longstanding inequities, and reinforce disadvantages.

    This has parallels with concerns raised in the United States. Screening guidelines there have been criticised for failing to account for higher rates of lung cancer in African Americans.

    What should we do next?

    If we’re serious about a commitment to equity in cancer outcomes – as outlined in the Australian Cancer Plan and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Cancer Plan – we must ensure screening policies do not inadvertently widen inequities.

    We must revisit who’s eligible for screening and how eligibility is determined. This may mean not only considering age and smoking history, but other factors such as a family history of cancer.

    It might also mean predicting lung cancer risk using models such as the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model. However, this particular model has not been validated in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, which needs to be a priority.

    Instead, the Medical Services Advisory Committee has prioritised the same screening age for all – administrative simplicity over this more sensitive way of assessing risk.

    We must prioritise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on screening waitlists and follow-up, and strengthen the cultural safety of services.

    We must ensure robust data collection and reporting to evaluate the screening program. Evaluation needs to assess if the program delivers equitable access and outcomes, as well as delivering on effectiveness, safety and cost.

    All these actions are essential to address the higher burden of lung cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and uphold equity and the right to health over administrative simplicity.

    This is the final article in our ‘Finding lung cancer’ series, which explores Australia’s first new cancer screening program in almost 20 years. Read other articles in the series.

    More information about the program is available, including for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. If you need support to quit smoking, see your doctor or call Quitline on 13 78 48.

    Lisa J. Whop has received funding from Australian government National Health and Medical Research Council, Cancer Australia, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing. Whop is the Chair of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Leadership Group of Cancer Australia and has been an investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia. The views in this article are their own.

    Alison Brown has been a co-investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia.

    Raglan Maddox has received funding from Australian government National Health and Medical Research Council, Cancer Australia, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing. Maddox has been an investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia. The views in this article are their own.

    – ref. Australia’s new lung cancer screening program has chosen simplicity over equity, and we’re concerned – https://theconversation.com/australias-new-lung-cancer-screening-program-has-chosen-simplicity-over-equity-and-were-concerned-253614

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s new lung cancer screening program has chosen simplicity over equity, and we’re concerned

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa J. Whop, Associate Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Yardhura Walani, National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research, Australian National University

    Thurtell/Getty Images

    Australia’s lung cancer screening program launched on July 1, and marks real progress and opportunity.

    It aims to reduce the number of people dying from lung cancer by offering regular low-dose CT scans to people who smoke, and those who have quit. The aim is to detect and treat cancer early before it has spread.

    But the program’s design may further disadvantage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, who are disproportionately affected by lung cancer.

    So Australia’s first new cancer screening program in almost 20 years risks entrenching health inequities rather than addressing them.

    Lung cancer is a particular burden

    Lung cancer is the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer death for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are 2.1 times more likely to be diagnosed with lung cancer, and 1.8 times likely to die from it, compared with non-Indigenous Australians.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are also more likely to be diagnosed with lung cancer at a younger age than non-Indigenous Australians.

    Understanding the broader context of lung cancer risk among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples is crucial.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have been paid in tobacco rations rather than wages up until the 1960s, excluded from economic and health systems, and targeted by tobacco industry marketing.

    Indigenous-led tobacco control and quit-smoking programs, such as the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program, have made significant progress in reducing smoking rates. Indigenous communities are leading the resistance against tobacco industry harms.

    However, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples face major barriers to lung cancer screening. This is particularly in rural and remote areas where access to GPs, radiology services and culturally safe care is limited.

    Lung cancer screening should account for this

    Initially, the lung cancer screening program was designed with a lower screening age for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – 50 years compared with 55 years for non-Indigenous Australians. This made sense in the face of the earlier and higher risk of lung cancer.

    However, the Medical Services Advisory Committee, the body responsible for assessing applications for public funding, removed this risk-based distinction. Now there’s a general age eligibility of 50-70 years.

    This is a shift from equity (fairness) to equality (sameness). In health, treating everyone equally deepens inequities.

    By contrast, many public health programs strive for equity and reflect the differing needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. For instance, heart health checks and many vaccines are offered to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples at a younger age.

    There are also possible consequences of lowering the screening age for non-Indigenous Australians from 55 (as originally intended) to 50. Cancer Australia’s report warned this would not provide a favourable balance of benefits and harms, nor would it be cost-effective.

    In this lower-risk population, this could increase the likelihood of detecting slow-growing lung nodules unlikely to cause harm. This can lead to unnecessary tests and procedures, anxiety, psychological distress, overtreatment and even harm.

    While Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples can also experience these potential harms, the higher risk of lung cancer earlier means the potential benefit from early detection outweighs these risks.

    Let’s call it for what it is – structural racism

    So current eligibility criteria expands the eligibility for lower risk groups. Yet it ignores Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ higher risk and cumulative impacts of remoteness, limited access to health services and other health conditions.

    This decision significantly increases the number of people accessing the program. While this may appear equal on the surface, it risks a misallocation of limited health system resources, particularly in an already overstretched health system.

    That’s a clear example of structural racism – when policies that seem neutral actually uphold longstanding inequities, and reinforce disadvantages.

    This has parallels with concerns raised in the United States. Screening guidelines there have been criticised for failing to account for higher rates of lung cancer in African Americans.

    What should we do next?

    If we’re serious about a commitment to equity in cancer outcomes – as outlined in the Australian Cancer Plan and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Cancer Plan – we must ensure screening policies do not inadvertently widen inequities.

    We must revisit who’s eligible for screening and how eligibility is determined. This may mean not only considering age and smoking history, but other factors such as a family history of cancer.

    It might also mean predicting lung cancer risk using models such as the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model. However, this particular model has not been validated in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, which needs to be a priority.

    Instead, the Medical Services Advisory Committee has prioritised the same screening age for all – administrative simplicity over this more sensitive way of assessing risk.

    We must prioritise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on screening waitlists and follow-up, and strengthen the cultural safety of services.

    We must ensure robust data collection and reporting to evaluate the screening program. Evaluation needs to assess if the program delivers equitable access and outcomes, as well as delivering on effectiveness, safety and cost.

    All these actions are essential to address the higher burden of lung cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and uphold equity and the right to health over administrative simplicity.

    This is the final article in our ‘Finding lung cancer’ series, which explores Australia’s first new cancer screening program in almost 20 years. Read other articles in the series.

    More information about the program is available, including for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. If you need support to quit smoking, see your doctor or call Quitline on 13 78 48.

    Lisa J. Whop has received funding from Australian government National Health and Medical Research Council, Cancer Australia, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing. Whop is the Chair of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Leadership Group of Cancer Australia and has been an investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia. The views in this article are their own.

    Alison Brown has been a co-investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia.

    Raglan Maddox has received funding from Australian government National Health and Medical Research Council, Cancer Australia, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing. Maddox has been an investigator on lung cancer screening consultation projects funded by Cancer Australia. The views in this article are their own.

    – ref. Australia’s new lung cancer screening program has chosen simplicity over equity, and we’re concerned – https://theconversation.com/australias-new-lung-cancer-screening-program-has-chosen-simplicity-over-equity-and-were-concerned-253614

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Lost in space: MethaneSat failed just as NZ was to take over mission control – here’s what we need to know now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Rattenbury, Associate Professor in Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Environmental Defense Fund, CC BY-SA

    This week’s announcement of the loss of a methane-detecting satellite, just days before New Zealand was meant to take over mission control, is a blow to the country’s space research sector.

    New Zealand invested NZ$29 million in the MethaneSat mission, built and operated by the US nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund, with a goal of growing the nation’s space industry.

    This would have been accomplished through gaining experience in operating a satellite at the University of Auckland’s Te Pūnaha Ātea Space Institute, and through research led by a team at Earth Sciences New Zealand to use the satellite to measure agricultural sources of methane.

    But on June 20, the satellite lost power and contact with the ground, and appears to be irrecoverable. This is disappointing for everyone on the mission development and operations teams.

    Having been in that position personally when my team lost a miniature satellite after a successful launch, I sympathise. But the benefits New Zealand hoped to gain from the MethaneSat mission will now be limited, at best, and questions need to be asked to learn from the failure.

    Early issues and delays

    The MethaneSat satellite launched in March 2024. New Zealand was meant to take over mission control by the end of last year, but problems with the satellite’s thrusters meant this was delayed to June this year.

    The satellite’s main mission was to detect methane leaks from oil and gas production, but it was also used to track methane sources from agriculture.

    New Zealand was not likely involved in the chain of events leading to the under-performance and delays, nor the eventual loss of the satellite. But as investors in the project, we are entitled to an explanation.

    That a spacecraft fails in orbit is not surprising. The space environment is unforgiving. But there is a question about whether New Zealand should have taken a closer look “under the hood” before investing in MethaneSat.

    The principle of caveat emptor (buyer beware) applies to spacecraft as much as to purchasing a car. While we were not involved in the MethaneSat mission design, satellite construction and testing, we were certainly entitled to relevant information to make a fully informed decision on whether or not to invest.

    Questions remain. During the MethaneSat post-mortem, one could reasonably ask to what extent experts were consulted during the decision-making process to invest in the satellite mission, and who was applying due diligence on behalf of New Zealand taxpayers.

    When earlier issues emerged, to what extent should New Zealand taxpayers, as investors, have been happy with explanations veiled in reported obligations of confidentiality or commercial sensitivity?

    Lessons for future space missions

    New Zealand has scientists and engineers working at publicly-funded universities who can contribute to future decision-making processes for the next taxpayer-funded space mission.

    New Zealand scientists working in the space sector do so knowing full well that the nation’s capacity to fund space missions is limited. Apart from being hard, frustrating, rewarding and unforgiving, working in space is expensive – and there are often delays and setbacks.

    Some of us working in New Zealand space research have been trying to work through how best to advise government on where to spend limited public funding. This will not be an easy task.

    The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) is an international organisation established in 1958 to promote global cooperation in space research. It provides a forum for the exchange of scientific results, sets standards for space data sharing, and advises on space policy and planetary protection.

    New Zealand participates in COSPAR as a national member and its committee comprises space science researchers from across the country. As chair of the New Zealand COSPAR committee, I sent a letter to Minister of Space Judith Collins last year offering our services:

    I believe closer collaboration between COSPAR’s initiatives and New Zealand’s aerospace goals would enhance our mutual objectives and strengthen our contribution to the global aerospace community. Specifically, we are uniquely placed to advise on the range of scientific endeavours currently underway […] that could be at the heart of a national space mission.

    Close scrutiny needed

    New Zealand has more talent and good research ideas than funding to support them. So there has to be a way of choosing between competing ideas.

    Crucially, that selection process has to be fully transparent so the investors – New Zealand taxpayers – can have confidence their investment is being safely bestowed.

    My vision is for a funding process for future space missions that addresses scientific goals relevant to New Zealand and takes advantage of the talent we have.
    There will be applicants who miss out, as there always are in any competitive process. But I would like to see support given to unsuccessful applicants to improve their chances in subsequent attempts.

    I work towards fostering the New Zealand space sector, especially in the areas where we can push back the boundaries of human knowledge via the safe, peaceful and sustainable use of space. This is the excitement I see reflected in the students I teach.

    For a nation with ambitions to utilise space for science, technological development and commercial gain, we also have to acknowledge that failure is a part of that journey. To make the best use of our very limited resources, we must examine our processes in the fullest light of disclosure – regardless of whether the failure was technological or in our decision-making processes.

    Nicholas James Rattenbury works for The University of Auckland. He has received funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and Royal Society Te Apārangi. He is affiliated with Te Pūnaha Ātea Space Institute. He is the current Chair of the New Zealand Committee of COSPAR.

    None of the viewpoints expressed in this article necessarily reflect those held by any of the abovementioned organisations or any other organisation or entity mentioned in the article.

    – ref. Lost in space: MethaneSat failed just as NZ was to take over mission control – here’s what we need to know now – https://theconversation.com/lost-in-space-methanesat-failed-just-as-nz-was-to-take-over-mission-control-heres-what-we-need-to-know-now-260407

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 6 simple questions to tell if a ‘finfluencer’ is more flash than cash

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dimitrios Salampasis, Associate Professor, Emerging Technologies and FinTech | FinTech Capability Lead, Swinburne University of Technology

    Oleg Golovnev/Shutterstock

    Images of flashy sports cars. Lavish lifestyle shots. These are just some of the red flags consumers should watch out for when they turn to social media for financial advice.

    Consumers should not believe everything they see on Instagram, TikTok or YouTube from the growing numbers of “finfluencers” – content creators who build their audience by giving out financial advice.

    The regulator responsible for financial products and advice, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), has issued warning notices to 18 social media finfluencers. ASIC said it suspects they have broken the law by promoting high-risk financial products or providing unlicensed financial advice. ASIC did not name them.

    So, why is regulated financial advice important and what are some of the common practices finfluencers use to attract followers and customers?

    Financial advice rules explained

    Australian Financial Services laws are designed to protect consumers and investors, while promoting the integrity of financial markets. It is both unethical and illegal to promote financial products without proper authorisation.

    In Australia, it is an offence under the Corporations Act to provide financial advice without an Australian Financial Services licence. Penalties include up to five years’ imprisonment or fines of A$1 million or more.

    ASIC issued a similar warning to online finfluencers in 2022. Since then, the number of social media posts by unauthorised finfluencers have substantially reduced.

    Many finfluencers became licensed or authorised representatives of a licensee, along with being more diligent about what they were posting online. Natasha Etschmann, with 300,000 Instagram and TikTok followers at @TashInvests, became licensed immediately after the 2022 warning.

    Some other finfluencers were arrested, issued fines or ordered to take down their websites.

    High-risk products

    However, some finfluencers who style themselves as “trading experts” continue to provide unauthorised financial advice, usually for a fee or commission. They promote high-risk, complex investment products that can cause consumers substantial harm.

    These products include contracts-for-difference
    and over-the-counter derivative products that do not trade on an exchange. ASIC says its current concerns lie with these content creators:

    Their social media content is often accompanied by misleading or deceptive representations about the prospects of success from the products or trading strategies they promote, sharing images of lavish lifestyles, sports cars and other luxury goods.

    What to watch on socials

    About 41% of young Australians aged 18 to 30 look online for financial information or advice.

    While budgeting tips can be helpful, it’s important to be extra careful with online financial advice. Consumers should not believe everything they see on social media.

    Conducting due diligence and checking finfluencers’ credentials on ASIC’s Professional Registers search tool is crucial. Choose expert and licensed finfluencers rather than accounts with large followings and exaggerated or misleading claims. Popularity does not always mean credibility.

    There are certain red flags to watch out for. Some finfluencers use pseudonyms. They promote “exclusive” financial advice content and access to “invitation-only” online communities for a fee. In many cases, they lack credible experience or certified financial planning training to provide financial advice.

    Your finfluencer vetting toolkit

    When choosing to follow or acquire the services of a finfluencer, ask:

    1. is this finfluencer licensed or authorised?

    2. how realistic are the promised financial outcomes? Are they too good to be true?

    3. does the finfluencer disclose their personal financial position or investments when discussing financial products or strategies?

    4. are they transparent about? their track record of accuracy or accountability?

    5. do they address publicly a case when their audience lost money from a strategy they recommended?

    6. does the finfluencer tailor content to different investment risk profiles or financial maturity levels in their audiences?

    Are you being sold a dream?

    Social media finfluencer content can often come with misleading or deceptive representations (such as the sports cars and luxury goods that ASIC has warned about). Content may overstate the prospects of success and potential profits.

    Some – usually unlicensed – finfluencers use social media content as “proof” of their financial expertise. One common practice is to try to lure consumers by creating a hyped world around their own personal lifestyle. Many finfluencers often extend invitations to consumers to join closed forums to “learn” their hidden secrets to success or copy their “famous” trading practices.

    These finfluencers usually try to convince consumers they can achieve a similar lifestyle by following their advice.

    Finfluencers are global

    ASIC issued the warnings as part of a recent global week of action. ASIC and eight regulators from the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Italy, Hong Kong and Canada took coordinated action to disrupt unlawful finfluencer activity.
    The global campaign aims to raise awareness about unlawful finfluencer activity, protect consumers, and prevent them from investing after encountering misleading content.

    Consumers need to distinguish between credible financial advice and self-serving or misleading content before trusting their money to anyone.

    Spotted unlicensed influencer activity? Report this misconduct to ASIC.

    Dimitrios Salampasis is a Fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australasia (FINSIA), member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) and member of the Singapore Institute of Directors (SID).

    – ref. 6 simple questions to tell if a ‘finfluencer’ is more flash than cash – https://theconversation.com/6-simple-questions-to-tell-if-a-finfluencer-is-more-flash-than-cash-259906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 6 simple questions to tell if a ‘finfluencer’ is more flash than cash

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dimitrios Salampasis, Associate Professor, Emerging Technologies and FinTech | FinTech Capability Lead, Swinburne University of Technology

    Oleg Golovnev/Shutterstock

    Images of flashy sports cars. Lavish lifestyle shots. These are just some of the red flags consumers should watch out for when they turn to social media for financial advice.

    Consumers should not believe everything they see on Instagram, TikTok or YouTube from the growing numbers of “finfluencers” – content creators who build their audience by giving out financial advice.

    The regulator responsible for financial products and advice, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), has issued warning notices to 18 social media finfluencers. ASIC said it suspects they have broken the law by promoting high-risk financial products or providing unlicensed financial advice. ASIC did not name them.

    So, why is regulated financial advice important and what are some of the common practices finfluencers use to attract followers and customers?

    Financial advice rules explained

    Australian Financial Services laws are designed to protect consumers and investors, while promoting the integrity of financial markets. It is both unethical and illegal to promote financial products without proper authorisation.

    In Australia, it is an offence under the Corporations Act to provide financial advice without an Australian Financial Services licence. Penalties include up to five years’ imprisonment or fines of A$1 million or more.

    ASIC issued a similar warning to online finfluencers in 2022. Since then, the number of social media posts by unauthorised finfluencers have substantially reduced.

    Many finfluencers became licensed or authorised representatives of a licensee, along with being more diligent about what they were posting online. Natasha Etschmann, with 300,000 Instagram and TikTok followers at @TashInvests, became licensed immediately after the 2022 warning.

    Some other finfluencers were arrested, issued fines or ordered to take down their websites.

    High-risk products

    However, some finfluencers who style themselves as “trading experts” continue to provide unauthorised financial advice, usually for a fee or commission. They promote high-risk, complex investment products that can cause consumers substantial harm.

    These products include contracts-for-difference
    and over-the-counter derivative products that do not trade on an exchange. ASIC says its current concerns lie with these content creators:

    Their social media content is often accompanied by misleading or deceptive representations about the prospects of success from the products or trading strategies they promote, sharing images of lavish lifestyles, sports cars and other luxury goods.

    What to watch on socials

    About 41% of young Australians aged 18 to 30 look online for financial information or advice.

    While budgeting tips can be helpful, it’s important to be extra careful with online financial advice. Consumers should not believe everything they see on social media.

    Conducting due diligence and checking finfluencers’ credentials on ASIC’s Professional Registers search tool is crucial. Choose expert and licensed finfluencers rather than accounts with large followings and exaggerated or misleading claims. Popularity does not always mean credibility.

    There are certain red flags to watch out for. Some finfluencers use pseudonyms. They promote “exclusive” financial advice content and access to “invitation-only” online communities for a fee. In many cases, they lack credible experience or certified financial planning training to provide financial advice.

    Your finfluencer vetting toolkit

    When choosing to follow or acquire the services of a finfluencer, ask:

    1. is this finfluencer licensed or authorised?

    2. how realistic are the promised financial outcomes? Are they too good to be true?

    3. does the finfluencer disclose their personal financial position or investments when discussing financial products or strategies?

    4. are they transparent about? their track record of accuracy or accountability?

    5. do they address publicly a case when their audience lost money from a strategy they recommended?

    6. does the finfluencer tailor content to different investment risk profiles or financial maturity levels in their audiences?

    Are you being sold a dream?

    Social media finfluencer content can often come with misleading or deceptive representations (such as the sports cars and luxury goods that ASIC has warned about). Content may overstate the prospects of success and potential profits.

    Some – usually unlicensed – finfluencers use social media content as “proof” of their financial expertise. One common practice is to try to lure consumers by creating a hyped world around their own personal lifestyle. Many finfluencers often extend invitations to consumers to join closed forums to “learn” their hidden secrets to success or copy their “famous” trading practices.

    These finfluencers usually try to convince consumers they can achieve a similar lifestyle by following their advice.

    Finfluencers are global

    ASIC issued the warnings as part of a recent global week of action. ASIC and eight regulators from the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Italy, Hong Kong and Canada took coordinated action to disrupt unlawful finfluencer activity.
    The global campaign aims to raise awareness about unlawful finfluencer activity, protect consumers, and prevent them from investing after encountering misleading content.

    Consumers need to distinguish between credible financial advice and self-serving or misleading content before trusting their money to anyone.

    Spotted unlicensed influencer activity? Report this misconduct to ASIC.

    Dimitrios Salampasis is a Fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australasia (FINSIA), member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) and member of the Singapore Institute of Directors (SID).

    – ref. 6 simple questions to tell if a ‘finfluencer’ is more flash than cash – https://theconversation.com/6-simple-questions-to-tell-if-a-finfluencer-is-more-flash-than-cash-259906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mauna Loa Observatory captured the reality of climate change. The US plans to shut it down

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Sen Gupta, Associate Professor in Climate Science, UNSW Sydney

    Izabela23/Shutterstock

    The greenhouse effect was discovered more than 150 years ago and the first scientific paper linking carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere with climate change was published in 1896.

    But it wasn’t until the 1950s that scientists could definitively detect the effect of human activities on the Earth’s atmosphere.

    In 1956, United States scientist Charles Keeling chose Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano for the site of a new atmospheric measuring station. It was ideal, located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and at high altitude away from the confounding influence of population centres.

    Data collected by Mauna Loa from 1958 onward let us clearly see the evidence of climate change for the first time. The station samples the air and measures global CO₂ levels. Charles Keeling and his successors used this data to produce the famous Keeling curve – a graph showing carbon dioxide levels increasing year after year.

    But this precious record is in peril. US President Donald Trump has decided to defund the observatory recording the data, as well as the widespread US greenhouse gas monitoring network and other climate measuring sites.

    We can’t solve the existential problem of climate change if we can’t track the changes. Losing Mauna Loa would be a huge loss to climate science. If it shuts, other observatories such as Australia’s Kennaook/Cape Grim will become even more vital.

    The Keeling Curve tracking steadily rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere came from data gathered at Mauna Loa.
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, CC BY-NC-ND

    What did Mauna Loa show us?

    The first year of measurements at Mauna Loa revealed something incredible. For the first time, the clear annual cycle in atmospheric CO₂ was visible. As plants grow in summer, they absorb CO₂ and draw it out of the atmosphere. As they die and decay in winter, the CO₂ returns to the atmosphere. It’s like Earth is breathing.

    Most land on Earth is in the Northern Hemisphere, which means this cycle is largely influenced by the northern summer and winter.

    The annual cycle of carbon dioxide is largely due to plant growth and decay in the northern hemisphere.

    It only took a few years of measurements before an even more profound pattern emerged.

    Year on year, CO₂ levels in the atmosphere were relentlessly rising. The natural in-out cycle continued, but against a steady increase.

    Scientists would later figure out that the ocean and land together were absorbing almost half of the CO₂ produced by humans. But the rest was building up in the atmosphere.

    Crucially, isotopic measurements meant scientists could be crystal clear about the origin of the extra carbon dioxide. It was coming from humans, largely through burning fossil fuels.

    Mauna Loa has now been collecting data for more than 65 years. The resulting Keeling curve graph is the most iconic demonstration of how human activities are collectively affecting the planet.

    When the last of the Baby Boomer generation were being born in the 1960s, CO₂ levels were around 320 parts per million. Now they’re over 420 ppm. That’s a level unseen for at least three million years. The rate of increase far exceeds any natural change in the past 50 million years.

    The reason carbon dioxide is so important is that this molecule has special properties. Its ability to trap heat alongside other greenhouse gases means Earth isn’t a frozen rock. If there were no greenhouse gases, Earth would have an average temperature of -18°C, rather than the balmy 14°C under which human civilisation emerged.

    The greenhouse effect is essential to life. But if there are too many gases, the planet becomes dangerously hot. That’s what’s happening now – a very sharp increase in gases exceptionally good at trapping heat even at low concentrations.

    Greenhouse gases are the reason Earth isn’t an icebox. But the rate humans are emitting them is leading to very rapid changes.
    Reid Wiseman/NASA, CC BY-NC-ND

    Keeping our eyes open

    It’s not enough to know CO₂ is climbing. Monitoring is essential. That’s because as the planet warms, both the ocean and the land are expected to take up less and less of humanity’s emissions, letting still more carbon accumulate in the air.

    Continuous, high-precision monitoring is the only way to spot if and when that happens.

    This monitoring provides the vital means to verify whether new climate policies are genuinely influencing the atmospheric CO₂ curve rather than just being touted as effective. Monitoring will also be vital to capture the moment many have been working towards when government policies and new technologies finally slow and eventually stop the increase in CO₂.

    The US administration’s plans to defund key climate monitoring systems and roll back green energy initiatives presents a global challenge.

    Without these systems, it will be harder to forecast the weather and give seasonal updates. It will also be harder to forecast dangerous extreme weather events.

    Scientists in the US and globally have sounded the alarm about what the closure would do to science. This is understandable. Stopping data climate collection is like breaking a thermometer because you don’t like knowing you’ve got a fever.

    If the US follows through, other countries will need to carefully reconsider their commitments to gathering and sharing climate data.

    Australia has a long record of direct atmospheric CO₂ measurement, which began in 1976 at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in north-west Tasmania. This and other climate observations will only become more valuable if Mauna Loa is lost.

    It remains to be seen how Australia’s leaders respond to the US retreat from climate monitoring. Ideally, Australia would not only maintain but strategically expand its monitoring systems of atmosphere, land and oceans.

    Alex Sen Gupta receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Katrin Meissner receives funding from the Minderoo Foundation and has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past.

    Timothy Raupach receives funding from QBE Insurance, Guy Carpenter, and the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Mauna Loa Observatory captured the reality of climate change. The US plans to shut it down – https://theconversation.com/mauna-loa-observatory-captured-the-reality-of-climate-change-the-us-plans-to-shut-it-down-260403

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mauna Loa Observatory captured the reality of climate change. The US plans to shut it down

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Sen Gupta, Associate Professor in Climate Science, UNSW Sydney

    Izabela23/Shutterstock

    The greenhouse effect was discovered more than 150 years ago and the first scientific paper linking carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere with climate change was published in 1896.

    But it wasn’t until the 1950s that scientists could definitively detect the effect of human activities on the Earth’s atmosphere.

    In 1956, United States scientist Charles Keeling chose Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano for the site of a new atmospheric measuring station. It was ideal, located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and at high altitude away from the confounding influence of population centres.

    Data collected by Mauna Loa from 1958 onward let us clearly see the evidence of climate change for the first time. The station samples the air and measures global CO₂ levels. Charles Keeling and his successors used this data to produce the famous Keeling curve – a graph showing carbon dioxide levels increasing year after year.

    But this precious record is in peril. US President Donald Trump has decided to defund the observatory recording the data, as well as the widespread US greenhouse gas monitoring network and other climate measuring sites.

    We can’t solve the existential problem of climate change if we can’t track the changes. Losing Mauna Loa would be a huge loss to climate science. If it shuts, other observatories such as Australia’s Kennaook/Cape Grim will become even more vital.

    The Keeling Curve tracking steadily rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere came from data gathered at Mauna Loa.
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, CC BY-NC-ND

    What did Mauna Loa show us?

    The first year of measurements at Mauna Loa revealed something incredible. For the first time, the clear annual cycle in atmospheric CO₂ was visible. As plants grow in summer, they absorb CO₂ and draw it out of the atmosphere. As they die and decay in winter, the CO₂ returns to the atmosphere. It’s like Earth is breathing.

    Most land on Earth is in the Northern Hemisphere, which means this cycle is largely influenced by the northern summer and winter.

    The annual cycle of carbon dioxide is largely due to plant growth and decay in the northern hemisphere.

    It only took a few years of measurements before an even more profound pattern emerged.

    Year on year, CO₂ levels in the atmosphere were relentlessly rising. The natural in-out cycle continued, but against a steady increase.

    Scientists would later figure out that the ocean and land together were absorbing almost half of the CO₂ produced by humans. But the rest was building up in the atmosphere.

    Crucially, isotopic measurements meant scientists could be crystal clear about the origin of the extra carbon dioxide. It was coming from humans, largely through burning fossil fuels.

    Mauna Loa has now been collecting data for more than 65 years. The resulting Keeling curve graph is the most iconic demonstration of how human activities are collectively affecting the planet.

    When the last of the Baby Boomer generation were being born in the 1960s, CO₂ levels were around 320 parts per million. Now they’re over 420 ppm. That’s a level unseen for at least three million years. The rate of increase far exceeds any natural change in the past 50 million years.

    The reason carbon dioxide is so important is that this molecule has special properties. Its ability to trap heat alongside other greenhouse gases means Earth isn’t a frozen rock. If there were no greenhouse gases, Earth would have an average temperature of -18°C, rather than the balmy 14°C under which human civilisation emerged.

    The greenhouse effect is essential to life. But if there are too many gases, the planet becomes dangerously hot. That’s what’s happening now – a very sharp increase in gases exceptionally good at trapping heat even at low concentrations.

    Greenhouse gases are the reason Earth isn’t an icebox. But the rate humans are emitting them is leading to very rapid changes.
    Reid Wiseman/NASA, CC BY-NC-ND

    Keeping our eyes open

    It’s not enough to know CO₂ is climbing. Monitoring is essential. That’s because as the planet warms, both the ocean and the land are expected to take up less and less of humanity’s emissions, letting still more carbon accumulate in the air.

    Continuous, high-precision monitoring is the only way to spot if and when that happens.

    This monitoring provides the vital means to verify whether new climate policies are genuinely influencing the atmospheric CO₂ curve rather than just being touted as effective. Monitoring will also be vital to capture the moment many have been working towards when government policies and new technologies finally slow and eventually stop the increase in CO₂.

    The US administration’s plans to defund key climate monitoring systems and roll back green energy initiatives presents a global challenge.

    Without these systems, it will be harder to forecast the weather and give seasonal updates. It will also be harder to forecast dangerous extreme weather events.

    Scientists in the US and globally have sounded the alarm about what the closure would do to science. This is understandable. Stopping data climate collection is like breaking a thermometer because you don’t like knowing you’ve got a fever.

    If the US follows through, other countries will need to carefully reconsider their commitments to gathering and sharing climate data.

    Australia has a long record of direct atmospheric CO₂ measurement, which began in 1976 at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in north-west Tasmania. This and other climate observations will only become more valuable if Mauna Loa is lost.

    It remains to be seen how Australia’s leaders respond to the US retreat from climate monitoring. Ideally, Australia would not only maintain but strategically expand its monitoring systems of atmosphere, land and oceans.

    Alex Sen Gupta receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Katrin Meissner receives funding from the Minderoo Foundation and has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past.

    Timothy Raupach receives funding from QBE Insurance, Guy Carpenter, and the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Mauna Loa Observatory captured the reality of climate change. The US plans to shut it down – https://theconversation.com/mauna-loa-observatory-captured-the-reality-of-climate-change-the-us-plans-to-shut-it-down-260403

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ will soon have no real interisland rail-ferry link – why are we so bad at infrastructure planning?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

    Another week, another Cook Strait ferry breakdown. As the winter maintenance season approaches and the Aratere prepares for its final months of service, New Zealand faces a self-imposed crisis.

    The government has spent NZ$507.3 million on cancelled iReX ferry plans, the country’s fleet has an average age of 28 years, and the earliest New Zealanders can hope for promised replacements is 2029.

    The Marlborough Chamber of Commerce warns unreliable ferries already shake tourist confidence. Several more years of duct-tape solutions won’t help.

    The recent pattern of breakdowns and cancellations has become so routine that New Zealand risks normalising what should be viewed as a national crisis: a serious infrastructure failure.

    It is also a textbook example of how short-term political cycles, coupled with chronic under-investment, create far more expensive problems than the ones they promise to solve.

    Cost blowouts

    While ministers claim to have spared taxpayers a $4 billion blowout on new ferries, Treasury papers show almost 80% of the cost escalation lay in seismic upgrades for wharves, not in the vessels themselves. Those land-side works will be required no matter what ferries the country eventually orders.

    Justifying the original contract cancellation, Finance Minister Nicola Willis quipped that iReX was a Ferrari when a Toyota Corolla would do. But the cost of finding a suitable Corolla is adding up fast.

    Annual maintenance costs are projected to nearly double to $65 million, just to keep the existing ageing ferries running. Additionally, $300 million had to be earmarked to cover fees for breaking the original ferry replacement contract.

    By retiring the Aratere this year – New Zealand’s only rail-capable ferry – the government is also severing the interisland rail link for almost five years.

    KiwiRail will “road-bridge” rail freight, an expensive workaround that involves loading train cars onto trucks, putting those trucks on ferries, then reversing the process at the other end. This will increase truck traffic, produce more emissions and add more wear to already strained infrastructure.

    Forcing more than $14 billion worth of annual freight from rail to road could also negatively affect New Zealand’s climate change commitments. Freight moved by rail generates only about 25% of the CO₂ per tonne-kilometre of the same load produced when hauled by truck.

    The cancelled hybrid ferries would have also cut emissions by 40%. Instead, New Zealand is locking in higher emissions for another half decade or longer.

    Unrealistic timelines

    The ferry saga reflects New Zealand’s infrastructure problem in a nutshell. The country tends to underestimate costs, create unfeasible timelines, then shows dismay when projects blow up or limp home at double the price.

    Auckland exemplifies the pattern. The city has seen decades of cancelled harbour crossing proposals and a scrapped light rail project, with nothing to show but consultancy fees.

    When New Zealand does build –Transmission Gully, for example – the final bill bears little resemblance to initial quotes. The 27 kilometre motorway north of Wellington was nearly 50% over budget and took eight years to build – two years longer than promised.

    The systematic underestimation of costs reflects a flawed approach to infrastructure planning. Politicians need quick wins within three-year electoral cycles, while infrastructure projects take decades to deliver.

    Projects are approved based on lowball estimates, with the outcome inherited by another administration. This has crossed party lines and created a system that rewards short-term thinking and punishes long-term planning.

    Just consider the second crossing for Auckland Harbour. For 35 years, the government has commissioned study after study – from the 1988 tunnel plans to the 2010 business cases – each time backing away when the price tag appeared, or the government changed.

    The iReX cancellation marks the first time the government has actually signed contracts and then walked away. As with the second Auckland Harbour crossing, each delay has only made the inevitable solution more expensive.

    Other countries have, to a degree, addressed this problem. Infrastructure Australia, for example, provides independent cost assessments and long-term planning that transcends political cycles. New Zealand’s Infrastructure Commission, established in 2019, lacks similar teeth and independence.

    Ultimately this isn’t really about ferries. It’s about how New Zealand consistently fails to deliver, on time and at cost, the infrastructure that keeps its economy moving.

    Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ will soon have no real interisland rail-ferry link – why are we so bad at infrastructure planning? – https://theconversation.com/nz-will-soon-have-no-real-interisland-rail-ferry-link-why-are-we-so-bad-at-infrastructure-planning-260279

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ will soon have no real interisland rail-ferry link – why are we so bad at infrastructure planning?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

    Another week, another Cook Strait ferry breakdown. As the winter maintenance season approaches and the Aratere prepares for its final months of service, New Zealand faces a self-imposed crisis.

    The government has spent NZ$507.3 million on cancelled iReX ferry plans, the country’s fleet has an average age of 28 years, and the earliest New Zealanders can hope for promised replacements is 2029.

    The Marlborough Chamber of Commerce warns unreliable ferries already shake tourist confidence. Several more years of duct-tape solutions won’t help.

    The recent pattern of breakdowns and cancellations has become so routine that New Zealand risks normalising what should be viewed as a national crisis: a serious infrastructure failure.

    It is also a textbook example of how short-term political cycles, coupled with chronic under-investment, create far more expensive problems than the ones they promise to solve.

    Cost blowouts

    While ministers claim to have spared taxpayers a $4 billion blowout on new ferries, Treasury papers show almost 80% of the cost escalation lay in seismic upgrades for wharves, not in the vessels themselves. Those land-side works will be required no matter what ferries the country eventually orders.

    Justifying the original contract cancellation, Finance Minister Nicola Willis quipped that iReX was a Ferrari when a Toyota Corolla would do. But the cost of finding a suitable Corolla is adding up fast.

    Annual maintenance costs are projected to nearly double to $65 million, just to keep the existing ageing ferries running. Additionally, $300 million had to be earmarked to cover fees for breaking the original ferry replacement contract.

    By retiring the Aratere this year – New Zealand’s only rail-capable ferry – the government is also severing the interisland rail link for almost five years.

    KiwiRail will “road-bridge” rail freight, an expensive workaround that involves loading train cars onto trucks, putting those trucks on ferries, then reversing the process at the other end. This will increase truck traffic, produce more emissions and add more wear to already strained infrastructure.

    Forcing more than $14 billion worth of annual freight from rail to road could also negatively affect New Zealand’s climate change commitments. Freight moved by rail generates only about 25% of the CO₂ per tonne-kilometre of the same load produced when hauled by truck.

    The cancelled hybrid ferries would have also cut emissions by 40%. Instead, New Zealand is locking in higher emissions for another half decade or longer.

    Unrealistic timelines

    The ferry saga reflects New Zealand’s infrastructure problem in a nutshell. The country tends to underestimate costs, create unfeasible timelines, then shows dismay when projects blow up or limp home at double the price.

    Auckland exemplifies the pattern. The city has seen decades of cancelled harbour crossing proposals and a scrapped light rail project, with nothing to show but consultancy fees.

    When New Zealand does build –Transmission Gully, for example – the final bill bears little resemblance to initial quotes. The 27 kilometre motorway north of Wellington was nearly 50% over budget and took eight years to build – two years longer than promised.

    The systematic underestimation of costs reflects a flawed approach to infrastructure planning. Politicians need quick wins within three-year electoral cycles, while infrastructure projects take decades to deliver.

    Projects are approved based on lowball estimates, with the outcome inherited by another administration. This has crossed party lines and created a system that rewards short-term thinking and punishes long-term planning.

    Just consider the second crossing for Auckland Harbour. For 35 years, the government has commissioned study after study – from the 1988 tunnel plans to the 2010 business cases – each time backing away when the price tag appeared, or the government changed.

    The iReX cancellation marks the first time the government has actually signed contracts and then walked away. As with the second Auckland Harbour crossing, each delay has only made the inevitable solution more expensive.

    Other countries have, to a degree, addressed this problem. Infrastructure Australia, for example, provides independent cost assessments and long-term planning that transcends political cycles. New Zealand’s Infrastructure Commission, established in 2019, lacks similar teeth and independence.

    Ultimately this isn’t really about ferries. It’s about how New Zealand consistently fails to deliver, on time and at cost, the infrastructure that keeps its economy moving.

    Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ will soon have no real interisland rail-ferry link – why are we so bad at infrastructure planning? – https://theconversation.com/nz-will-soon-have-no-real-interisland-rail-ferry-link-why-are-we-so-bad-at-infrastructure-planning-260279

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: I’ve seen the brain damage contact sports can cause – we all need to take concussion and CTE more seriously

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, Adjunct Research Fellow, School of Health Science, Swinburne University of Technology

    AAP Image/The Conversation, CC BY

    Concussion in sport continues to make headlines, whether it be class actions, young men flocking to the highly violent “RunIt” activity or debate about whether Australian rules football should remove the “bump” once and for all.

    Bringing this weighty issue to greater prominence are the former athletes who bravely share their long-term health struggles after careers in sport – cognitive impairments, mental health issues or concerns about neurodegenerative disease, specifically chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).

    Yet for all the progress made by many sports in recent years, it feels like we still have not fully grasped the understanding of CTE – or maybe we don’t want to.

    Remind me again, what is CTE?

    CTE is a neurodegenerative brain disease, just like dementia, motor neurone disease (MND) and Parkinson’s disease.

    Expert groups agree on the links between traumatic brain injury and increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease (and other dementias), and the growing evidence of links to MND and Parkinson’s.

    People who have never had a traumatic brain injury can still regrettably suffer from these diseases. However, while CTE is rare in the general population, those with a history of repetitive impacts to the brain are more at risk.

    These impacts may not be diagnosed brain injuries or concussions, but rather non-concussive impacts (smaller hits that do not produce signs or symptoms of concussion).

    Contrary to anecdotal opinion, an athlete’s concussion history is not the crucial variable in risk and severity of CTE.

    Emerging international evidence, including my own recently published studies, show the risk of developing CTE (and its severity) is linked to exposure: the age a person starts full contact sport and the length of a playing career.

    The grey area of concussion, CTE and mental health

    Currently, CTE cannot be diagnosed in living people.

    However in understanding the progression of the disease in those who have passed away with CTE, families have described signs and symptoms including cognitive impairments such as:

    • Parkinsonism
    • memory loss
    • trouble with planning and organising tasks
    • impulsive behaviours
    • anger and irritability
    • emotional instability
    • substance misuse
    • suicidal thoughts/behaviour.

    While these signs and symptoms can overlap with those we associate with mental health, this does not necessarily mean the affected person had “mental health concerns”.

    The continued awareness in men’s mental health is a good thing broadly but it has sometimes misappropriated CTE as a mental health issue. For example, some fundraising games in the names of athletes who have died with CTE are being channelled to mental health charities and institutes, confusing the wider community.

    Consequently two recent tragic stories, one from the family of deceased former AFL player Shane Tuck and the other from Amanda Green, the widow of the late NRL player and coach Paul Green, needed to be told.

    Their stories contradicted widely held beliefs in the media and among fans that Tuck or Green were suffering with a psychiatric disease prior to their untimely deaths. In fact, they had CTE.

    An uncomfortable conversation

    So, why aren’t we talking about CTE more?

    The answer is, unfortunately it is an inconvenient truth.

    Considering CTE is entirely preventable if we remove exposure risk of repetitive hits to the head, the solution is to further modify many of our most popular sports to make head impacts much rarer.

    There is sizeable opposition to this idea.

    “Now is not the time to discuss such ‘political’ issues,” is the response I usually get from academics and colleagues involved in these sports, and even football loving friends, when I try to raise awareness.

    This continued hesitation only slows the science of CTE further.

    If an athlete’s family has been courageous in donating their brain to the Australian Sports Brain Bank and CTE has been found, the standard response from sports organisations is:

    the (insert sport here) takes athlete health and wellbeing as its greatest priority […] the (insert sport here) has implemented strict concussion protocols and continues research into athletes’ brain health.

    Even a Senate parliamentary inquiry has done little to change the situation.

    In fact, while most sports have tried to become safer through rule changes, progress more broadly has plateaued or even regressed in recent years.

    Take one recent example in the NRL, when some in the rugby league community made light of the multiple concussions suffered by Victor Radley. After playing his 150th game, he posed smiling with a t-shirt detailing the number of concussions he had suffered during his career. His club, the Sydney Roosters, posted the photo on Instagram before it was later removed.

    Even more worrying is a new controversial activity called “RunIt”, which involves two men running full speed at each other with the intention of knocking over (or more aptly knocking out) the opponent.

    A recent death of a New Zealand teenager playing RunIt has highlighted the dangers.



    Read more:
    Head knocks and ultra-violence: viral games Run It Straight and Power Slap put sports safety back centuries

    What more can be done?

    With the help of the Concussion Legacy Foundation, experts around the world, including myself, have produced a CTE prevention protocol. This does not mean banning any sports but rather modifying components that will reduce exposure risk.

    Here are five ideas I believe would make a difference.

    1. Reducing contact loads in training, particularly in pre-season training.

    2. Modify contact sports for children until the age of 14. This potentially removes six to eight years of incidental and unnecessary hits to kids’ heads. They can still play and learn all the fundamental motor skills and enjoy the psychological benefits of sport before graduating to the full version of the game at 14.

    3. Influential media commentators need to upskill themselves around CTE and to not be afraid to mention CTE rather than deferring to “concussion protocols”.

    4. Medical and allied health practitioners do not regularly screen for concussion or contact sport playing history when assessing a patient who is struggling with movement disorders, chronic headaches/fatigue or cognitive/behavioural impairments. Repetitive head impact history should be screened just like alcohol and drug use history.

    5. When an athlete suddenly and tragically dies, we need to include, along with emergency help lines, information for help and support for those unsure about CTE.

    Unfortunately, if we don’t have the political will to acknowledge CTE and act, more families will be grieving tragic deaths of athletes. These families may not even be aware of CTE.

    This does not make me anti-sport, but pro-athlete. Let’s all become pro-athlete for the sake of our sports and the people who play them.

    Alan Pearce is currently unfunded. Alan is a non-executive director for the Concussion Legacy Foundation (unpaid position) and Adjunct research manager for the Australian Sports Brain Bank (unpaid position). He has previously received funding from Erasmus+ strategic partnerships program (2019-1-IE01-KA202-051555), Sports Health Check Charity (Australia), Australian Football League, Impact Technologies Inc., and Samsung Corporation, and is remunerated for expert advice to medico-legal practices.

    – ref. I’ve seen the brain damage contact sports can cause – we all need to take concussion and CTE more seriously – https://theconversation.com/ive-seen-the-brain-damage-contact-sports-can-cause-we-all-need-to-take-concussion-and-cte-more-seriously-259785

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Rare wooden tools from Stone Age China reveal plant-based lifestyle of ancient lakeside humans

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bo Li, Professor, Environmental Futures Research Centre, School of Science, University of Wollongong

    Excavation at the Gantangqing site. Liu et al.

    Ancient wooden tools found at a site in Gantangqing in southwestern China are approximately 300,000 years old, new dating has shown. Discovered during excavations carried out in 2014–15 and 2018–19, the tools have now been dated by a team of archaeologists, geologists, chronologists (including me) and paleontologists.

    The rare wooden tools were found alongside an assortment of animal and plant fossils and stone artifacts.

    Taken together, the finds suggest the early humans at Gantangqing were surprisingly sophisticated woodworkers who lived in a rich tropical or subtropical environment where they subsisted by harvesting plants from a nearby lake.

    The location of the Gantangqing site and excavation trenches.
    Liu et al. / Science

    Why ancient wooden tools are so rare

    Wood usually decomposes relatively rapidly due to microbial activity, oxidation, and weathering. Unlike stone or bone, it rarely survives more than a few centuries.

    Wood can only survive for thousands of years or longer if it ends up buried in unusual conditions. Wood can last a long time in oxygen-free environments or extremely dry areas. Charred or fire-hardened wood is also more durable.

    At Gantangqing, the wooden objects were excavated from low-oxygen clay-heavy layers of sediment formed on the ancient shoreline of Fuxian Lake.

    Wooden implements are extremely rare from the Early Palaeolithic period (the first part of the “stone age” from around 3.3 million years ago until 300,000 years ago or so, in which our hominin ancestors first began to use tools). Indeed, wooden tools more than even 50,000 years old are virtually absent outside Africa and western Eurasia.

    As a result, we may have a skewed understanding of Palaeolithic cultures. We may overemphasise the role of stone tools, for example, because they are what has survived.

    What wooden tools were found at Gantangqing?

    The new excavations at Gantangqing found 35 wooden specimens identified as artificially modified tools. These tools were primarily manufactured from pine wood, with a minority crafted from hardwoods.

    Some of the tools had rounded ends, while others had chisel-like thin blades or ridged blades. Of the 35 tools, 32 show marks of intentional modification at their tips, working edges, or bases.

    Two large digging implements were identified as heavy-duty digging sticks designed for two-handed use. These are unique forms of digging implements not documented elsewhere, suggesting localised functional adaptations. There were also four distinct hook-shaped tools — likely used for cutting roots — and a series of smaller tools for one-handed use.

    Nineteen of the tools showed microscopic traces of scraping from shaping or use, while 17 exhibit deliberately polished surfaces. We also identified further evidence of intensive use, including soil residues stuck to tool tips, parallel grooves or streaks along working edges, and characteristic fracture wear patterns.

    The tools from Gantangqing are more complete and show a wider range of functions than those found at contemporary sites such as Clacton in the UK and Florisbad in South Africa.

    The wooden tools from Gantangqing took a variety of forms.
    Liu et al. / Science

    How old are the Gantangqing wooden tools?

    The team used several techniques to figure out the age of the wooden tools. There is no way to determine their age directly, but we can date the sediment in which they were found.

    Using a technique called infrared stimulated luminescence, we analysed more than 10,000 individual grains of minerals from different layers. This showed the sediment was deposited roughly between 350,000 and 200,000 years ago.

    Dating the different layers of sediment excavated at the site produced a detailed timeline.
    Liu et al. / Science

    We also used different techniques to date a mammal tooth found in one of the layers to roughly 288,000 years old. This was consistent with the mineral results.

    Next we used mathematical modelling to bring all the dating results together. Our model indicated that the layers containing stone tools and wooden implements date from 360–300,000 years ago to 290–250,000 years ago.

    What was the environment like?

    Our research indicates the ancient humans at Gantangqing inhabited a warm, humid, tropical or subtropical environment. Pollen extracted from the sediments reveals 40 plant families that confirm this climate.

    Plant fossils further verify the presence of subtropical-to-tropical flora dominated by trees, lianas, shrubs and herbs. Wet-environment plants show the local surroundings were a lakeside or wetlands.

    Animal fossils also fit this picture, including rhinoceros and other mammals, turtles and various birds. The ecosystem was likely a mosaic of grassland, thickets and forests. Evidence of diving ducks confirms the lake must have been at least 2–3 metres deep during human occupation.

    Examples of stone and bone tools found at Gantangqing.
    Liu et al. / Science

    What were the Gantangqing wooden tools used for?

    The site contained evidence of plants such as storable pine nuts and hazelnuts, fruit trees such as kiwi, raspberry-like berries, grapes, edible herbs and fern fronds.

    There were also aquatic plants that would have provided edible leaves, seeds, tubers and rhizomes. These were likely dug up from shallow mud near the shore, using wooden tools.

    These findings suggest the Gantangqing hominins may have made expeditions to the lake shore, carrying purpose-made wooden digging sticks to harvest underground food sources. To do this, they would have had to anticipate seasonal plant distributions, know exactly what parts of different plants were edible, and produce specialised tools for different tasks.

    Why the Gantangqing site is important

    The wooden implements from Gantangqing represent the earliest known evidence for the use of digging sticks and for the exploitation of underground plant storage organs such as tubers within the Oriental biogeographic realm. Our discovery shows the use of sophisticated wood technology in a very different environmental context from what has been seen at sites of similar age in Europe and Africa.

    The find significantly expands our understanding of early hominin woodworking capabilities.

    The hominins who lived at Gantangqing appear to have lived a heavily plant-based subsistence lifestyle. This is in contrast to colder, more northern settings where tools of similar age have been found (such as Schöningen in Germany), where hunting large mammals was the key to survival.

    The site also shows how important wood – and perhaps other organic materials – were to “stone age” hominins. These wooden artifacts show far more sophisticated manufacturing skill than the relative rudimentary stone tools found at sites of similar age across East and Southeast Asia.

    The excavation, curation, and research of the Gantangqing site were supported by
    National Cultural Heritage Administration (China), Yunnan Provincial Institute of
    Cultural Relics and Archaeology, Yuxi Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism,
    Chengjiang Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism, Australian Research Council
    (ARC) Discovery Projects, Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese
    Academy of Sciences, Hong Kong Research Grants Council (RGC), National Natural
    Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

    – ref. Rare wooden tools from Stone Age China reveal plant-based lifestyle of ancient lakeside humans – https://theconversation.com/rare-wooden-tools-from-stone-age-china-reveal-plant-based-lifestyle-of-ancient-lakeside-humans-260204

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: how two once hot-button issues this week barely sparked media and political interest

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Political and news cycles often work in a certain and predictable way. Issues flare like bushfires, then rage for weeks or even months, until they are finally extinguished by action or fade by being overtaken by the next big thing.

    On two very different fronts this week, we’re reminded how these cycles work.

    During the last term, the opposition constantly hammered the government over its handling of the former immigration detainees released after the High Court found they couldn’t be held indefinitely. These included people who had committed murder, child sex offences and violent assaults.

    On Sunday, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke admitted in a television interview that the legislation the government passed to re-detain some of these people was, in effect, impossible to use. Burke’s comments attracted only limited attention.

    The other reminder of an old story came when the Federal Court ordered a militant Muslim preacher to remove inflammatory lectures from the internet. He had lost a case brought by the Executive Council of Australian Jewry under Section 18C for the Racial Discrimination Act. More than a decade ago, political passions ran high in conservative circles about the alleged evils of 18C.

    First to the Burke admission. Burke told Sky he had “a lot of resources” dedicated to trying to get applications to court for preventative detention orders. But “no one has come close to reaching the threshold that is in that legislation”. Burke insisted he was “not giving up”, but there is little reason to believe things will change. The opposition has suggested amending the preventative detention legislation, but Burke says that would hit a constitutional obstacle.

    For a long time, the government had kept saying it was working up cases to put to the court (and given the impression action was close). But, realising the difficulty, it also passed legislation facilitating the deportation of these people to third countries. There are now three former detainees due to be deported to Nauru, following a financial agreement with that country. But there’s a hitch: their deportations are tied up in court appeals. (They are, however, able to be held in detention while the cases proceed.)

    The challenge still presented by the former detainees in the community is no small matter, despite the political storm having calmed and the media interest dissipating.

    In evidence in Senate estimates in March, the Department of Home Affairs said 300 people had been released from immigration detention as at the end of February. Of these, 104 had offended since release, and 30 were incarcerated (including on remand). Some 83 had only a state or territory criminal charge; seven only a Migration Act charge; 14 people had both a Migration Act charge and a state or territory charge. In recent weeks, one former detainee is alleged to have murdered a photographer in Melbourne.

    The political context can be very relevant to whether the embers of an old issue re-spark into something major.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision last year to put Burke into home affairs was something of a political masterstroke. If Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles had still been in their former respective portfolios of home affairs and immigration, the present failure to deal more successfully with the former detainees would have been a much bigger issue. Burke is skilled at throwing a blanket over contentious areas.

    On the other side of politics, James Paterson was moved out of home affairs to become shadow finance minister in Sussan Ley’s reshuffle. Paterson pursued the former immigration detainees relentlessly. The new spokesmen, Andrew Hastie (home affairs) and Paul Scarr (immigration) haven’t hit their strides yet, and what they have said on the issue hasn’t grabbed much attention.

    The government would have been under more pressure on the issue if parliament were sitting. But the new parliament doesn’t meet until July 22.

    When it does, one of the new arrivals will be a former face, Liberal MP Tim Wilson. Way back when, Wilson was a player in the story of 18C. For him, the way 18C resurfaced this week contains more than a little irony.

    In February 2014, Wilson took up his post of Human Rights Commissioner, appointed by the Abbott government with the special brief of promoting freedom of speech. (He was even dubbed the “freedom commissioner”.)

    The Abbott government was strongly opposed to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, which made it unlawful to “offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate” a person or group because of their race or ethnicity.

    The assault on 18C ran into vigorous opposition from ethnic and other groups, including the Executive Council of Australian Jewry. In the end, then prime minister Tony Abbott retreated. Wilson was disappointed, tweeting: “Disturbed to hear the government has backed down on 18c and will keep offensive speech illegal. Very disturbed.”

    In his 2025 bid for election, Wilson – who had been member for Goldstein from 2016-2022 – was helped by the Jewish vote, after the rise of antisemitism.

    The debate about free speech has moved on a great deal since the days of the Abbott government, when conservatives were particularly agitated about 18C following a court judgement against journalist Andrew Bolt relating what he has written about some fair-skinned Indigenous people.

    Today’s debate is in the context of “hate speech” associated with the Middle East conflict. Hate-crime laws have provoked another fierce round of controversy about the appropriate limits to put on “free speech”.

    The Executive Council of Australian Jewry brought its case under the 18C civil law against preacher William Haddad, from Western Sydney, after no action was taken by the authorities under the criminal law.

    Haddad described Jews as “a treacherous people, a vile people”, among other offensive remarks, that included saying: “The majority of banks are owned by the Jews, who are happy to give people loans, knowing that it’s almost impossible to pay it back”. Haddad argued in his defence his lectures drew on religious writings, relating them to contemporary events, and were delivered for educational purposes.

    Finding against Haddad, Judge Angus Stewart said the lectures conveyed “disparaging imputations about Jewish people and that in all the circumstances were reasonably likely to offend, insult, humiliate and intimidate Jews in Australia”.

    Reflecting on this week’s decision, George Brandis – who was attorney-general during the 18C furore – says, “My view hasn’t changed. It should not in a free country be either criminally or civilly actionable to say something that merely offends. However, in this case the conduct went far beyond mere offence, to intimidation. It did not require 18C to get the redress that was sought in the case.”

    Wilson does not wish to re-enter the debate. The new opposition industrial relations spokesman says his focus is “my portfolio responsibilities”.

    It’s likely many of those who fought 18C years ago hold to their original view, while having to applaud the judgement made under it this week. That’s another irony.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: how two once hot-button issues this week barely sparked media and political interest – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-how-two-once-hot-button-issues-this-week-barely-sparked-media-and-political-interest-259686

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: How do we define Canadian content? Debates will shape how creatives make a living

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Daphne Rena Idiz, Postdoctoral fellow, Department of Arts, Culture and Media, University of Toronto

    What should count as Canadian content (CanCon) in the era of streaming and generative AI (GenAI)?

    That’s the biggest unknown at the heart of the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission’s recent (CRTC) public hearing, held in Gatineau, Que., from May 14 to 27.

    The debate is about how Canada’s current points-based CanCon system remains effective in the context of global streaming giants and generative AI. Shows qualify as CanCon by assigning value to roles like director, screenwriter and lead actors being Canadian.

    The outcome will shape who gets to tell Canadian stories and what those stories are, and also which ones count as Canadian under the law. This, in turn, will determine who in the film and television industries can access funding, tax credits and visibility on streaming services.

    It will also determine which Canadian productions big streamers like Netflix will invest in under their Online Streaming Act obligations.

    The federal government’s recent announcement that it’s rescinding the Digital Services Tax reveals the limits of Canada’s leverage over Big Tech, underscoring the significance of CanCon rules as parameters around how streaming giants contribute meaningfully to the country’s creative industries.

    CanCon: Who gets to decide?

    The CRTC’s existing approach to defining CanCon relies on the citizenship of key creative personnel.

    The National Film Board argued that this misses the “cultural elements” of Canadian storytelling. These include cultural expression, narrative themes and connection to Canadian audiences. That is, a production might technically count as CanCon by hiring Canadians, without feeling particularly “Canadian.”

    It’s worth noting there are varied global regulatory frameworks for defining film nationality. The Writers Guild of Canada supports the CRTC’s view that cultural elements shouldn’t be part of CanCon certification, and argues that attempting to further codify cultural criteria risks reducing Canadian identity to superficial symbols like maple leaves or hockey sticks, and could exclude entire genres like sci-fi or fantasy.

    ‘Canadianness’ too broad to regulate?

    The Writers Guild of Canada argues that while Canadians should expect to see cultural elements in programming, the concept of “Canadianness” is too broad and subjective to be effectively regulated.

    Cultural elements are regulated by the 1991 Broadcasting Act as amended by the 2023 Online Streaming Act. Broadcasters and streamers must reflect Canadian stories, identities and cultural expressions.



    Read more:
    How the Online Streaming Act will support Canadian content

    The acts empower broadcasters and streamers to decide which Canadian stories and content will be developed, produced and distributed through commissioning and licensing powers. This implicitly limits the CRTC’s role to setting rules about which creatives are at the table.

    The Writer’s Guild advocates broadening the pool of Canadian key creatives to modernize the CanCon system. It trusts the combined perspectives of a broader pool to make creative decisions about Canadian identity in meaningful ways. Accordingly, it supports the CRTC’s intent to add the showrunner role to the point system since showrunners are the “the chief custodian of the creative vision of a series.”

    Battle over Canadian IP

    Streaming introduces more players with financial stakes, complicating who controls content and who profits from it. A seismic shift is happening in how intellectual property (IP) is handled.

    CRTC has proposed that the updated CanCon definition include Canadian IP ownership as a mandatory element to enable Canadian companies and workers to retain some control over their own IP, and thereby earn sustainable income. For example, in a streaming drama, Canadian screenwriters who retain ownership of the IP could earn ongoing revenue through licensing deals, international sales and royalties each time the series is distributed.

    However, the Motion Picture Association-Canada (MPA-Canada), representing industry titans like Netflix, Amazon and Disney, is pushing back against requirements that mandate the sharing of territory or IP.

    Without IP rights, Canadian talent and the industry as a whole may be reduced to becoming service providers for global companies.

    Fair remuneration, IP rights needed

    Our own research highlights how this type of contractual arrangement increases the power asymmetries between producers, distributors and streaming services. We emphasize the critical importance of fair remuneration and IP rights for creators.

    Intervenors shared a range of preferences from 100 per cent Canadian IP ownership to none at all. One hundred per cent Canadian IP ownership means Canadian creators like a producer of a streaming series would control the rights to the content. They would receive the majority of profits from licensing, distribution and future adaptations.

    Even 51 per cent ownership could give them a controlling stake, but would likely require sharing revenue and decision-making with the streaming service.

    AI and CanCon

    And then, of course, there’s the question of how generative AI should be considered within the updated CanCon definition. The Writers Guild of Canada has drawn a firm line in the sand: AI-generated material should not qualify as Canadian content.

    The guild argues that since current AI tools don’t possess identity, nationality or cultural context, their output cannot advance the goals of the Broadcasting Act, centred on promoting Canadian voices and stories.

    The Alliance of Canadian Cinema, Television and Radio Artists (ACTRA) raised a different concern around AI. AI, ACTRA argued, “should not take over the jobs of the creators in the ecosystem that we’re in and we should not treat AI-generated performers as if they are a Canadian actor.”

    Depending on how the CRTC addresses AI, this could mean that streaming content featuring AI-generated scripts, characters, or performances — even if developed by a Canadian creator or set in Canada — would not qualify as CanCon.

    The WGC notes that it has already negotiated restrictions on AI use in screenwriting through its agreement with the Canadian Media Producers Association. These guardrails are being held up as the “emerging industry standard.”

    Follow the money

    Another contested point is how streamers should pay into CanCon: through direct investment or through more traditional modes of financing. Under the Online Streaming Act, streamers are required to pay five per cent of their annual revenues to certain Canadian funds.

    This model echoes previous requirements used to manage decision-making at media broadcasters, some at the much more substantial level of 30 per cent.

    But no payments have been made yet, and streamers are appealing this requirement. Streamers prefer investing directly into Canadian content, taking a risk on its commercial potential to benefit from resulting successes.

    Research in the European Union and Canada highlight how different stakeholders benefit from different forms of financial obligations, suggesting the industry may be best served by a policy mix.

    As Canada rewrites its broadcasting rules, defining Canadian content is a courtroom drama unfolding in real time — and the verdict will have serious ramifications.

    MaryElizabeth Luka receives research project funding from peer-adjudicated grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and internal grants at University of Toronto, such as the Creative Labour Critical Futures Cluster of Scholarly Prominence.

    Daphne Rena Idiz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How do we define Canadian content? Debates will shape how creatives make a living – https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-define-canadian-content-debates-will-shape-how-creatives-make-a-living-258013

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Experiencing extreme weather and disasters is not enough to change views on climate action, study shows

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Omid Ghasemi, Research Associate in Behavioural Science at the Institute for Climate Risk & Response, UNSW Sydney

    STR / AFP via Getty Images

    Climate change has made extreme weather events such as bushfires and floods more frequent and more likely in recent years, and the trend is expected to continue. These events have led to human and animal deaths, harmed physical and mental health, and damaged properties and infrastructure.

    Will firsthand experience of these events change how people think and act about climate change, making it seem immediate and local rather than a distant or future problem?

    Research so far has offered a mixed picture. Some studies suggest going through extreme weather can make people more likely to believe in climate change, worry about it, support climate policies, and vote for Green parties. But other studies have found no such effects on people’s beliefs, concern, or behaviour.

    New research led by Viktoria Cologna at ETH Zurich in Switzerland may help to explain what’s going on. Using data from around the world, the study suggests simple exposure to extreme weather events does not affect people’s view of climate action – but linking those events to climate change can make a big difference.

    Global opinion, global weather

    The new study, published in Nature Climate Change, looked at the question of extreme weather and climate opinion using two global datasets.

    The first is the Trust in Science and Science-related Populism (TISP) survey, which includes responses from more than 70,000 people in 68 countries. It measures public support for climate policies and the extent that people think climate change is behind increases in extreme weather.

    The second dataset estimates how much of each country’s population has been affected each year by events such as droughts, floods, heatwaves and storms. These estimates are based on detailed models and historical climate records.

    Public support for climate policies

    The survey measured public support for climate policy by asking people how much they supported five specific actions to cut carbon emissions. These included raising carbon taxes, improving public transport, using more renewable energy, protecting forests and land, and taxing carbon-heavy foods.

    Responses ranged from 1 (not at all) to 3 (very much). On average, support was fairly strong, with an average rating of 2.37 across the five policies. Support was especially high in parts of South Asia, Africa, the Americas and Oceania, but lower in countries such as Russia, Czechia and Ethiopia.

    Exposure to extreme weather events

    The study found most people around the world have experienced heatwaves and heavy rainfall in recent decades. Wildfires affected fewer people in many European and North American countries, but were more common in parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America.

    Cyclones mostly impacted North America and Asia, while droughts affected large populations in Asia, Latin America and Africa. River flooding was widespread across most regions, except Oceania.

    Do people in countries with higher exposure to extreme weather events show greater support for climate policies? This study found they don’t.

    In most cases, living in a country where more people are exposed to disasters was not reflected in stronger support for climate action.

    Wildfires were the only exception. Countries with more wildfire exposure showed slightly higher support, but this link disappeared once factors such as land size and overall climate belief were considered.

    In short, just experiencing more disasters does not seem to translate into increased support for mitigation efforts.

    Seeing the link between weather and climate change

    In the global survey, people were asked how much they think climate change has increased the impact of extreme weather over recent decades. On average, responses were moderately high (3.8 out of 5) suggesting that many people do link recent weather events to climate change.

    Such an attribution was especially strong in Latin America, but lower in parts of Africa (such as Congo and Ethiopia) and Northern Europe (such as Finland and Norway).

    Crucially, people who more strongly believed climate change had worsened these events were also more likely to support climate policies. In fact, this belief mattered more for policy support than whether they had actually experienced the events firsthand.

    What does this study tell us?

    While public support for climate policies is relatively high around the world, even more support is needed to introduce stronger, more ambitious measures. It might seem reasonable to expect that feeling the effects of climate change would push people to act, but this study suggests that doesn’t always happen.

    Prior research shows less dramatic and chronic events like rainfall or temperature anomalies have less influence on public views than more acute hazards like floods or bushfires. Even then, the influence on beliefs and behaviour tends to be slow and limited.

    This study shows climate impacts alone may not change minds. However, it also highlights what may affect public thinking: helping people recognise the link between climate change and extreme weather events.

    In countries such as Australia, climate change makes up only about 1% of media coverage. What’s more, most of the coverage focuses on social or political aspects rather than scientific, ecological, or economic impacts.

    Many stories about disasters linked to climate change also fail to mention the link, or indeed mention climate change at all. Making these connections clearer may encourage stronger public support for climate action.

    Omid Ghasemi receives funding from the Australian Academy of Science. He was a member of the TISP consortium and a co-author of the dataset used in this study.

    – ref. Experiencing extreme weather and disasters is not enough to change views on climate action, study shows – https://theconversation.com/experiencing-extreme-weather-and-disasters-is-not-enough-to-change-views-on-climate-action-study-shows-260308

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: AI-powered assistive technologies are changing how we experience and imagine public space

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ron Buliung, Professor, Geography and Planning, University of Toronto

    AI-powered assistive devices, like hearing aids, are changing how the people who use them experience public space. (Shutterstock)

    New applications and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with wearable devices are changing the way users interact with their environments and each other. The impacts and reach of these new technologies have yet to be fully understood.

    Connections between technologies and bodies is not a new thing for many disabled persons. Assistive technologies — tools and products designed to support people with disabilities — have played a part in mitigating built and institutional barriers experienced by disabled persons for decades.

    While not strictly considered assistive, immersive and wearable technologies have the potential to change the relationship between disabled users and their experience of place.

    For example, Ray-Ban’s Meta glasses use AI to describe what the cameras are capturing using the Be My Eyes app. Using OpenAI’s large language model, ChatGPT, this effectively turns a user’s smart phone into a vision assistant.

    Beyond wearables, some technologies are more closely tied to or integrated with the body. Examples include brain-computer interfaces, AI-enabled prosthetics and bone-anchored hearing aids.

    The availability and production of environmental data from these technologies may impact how we relate to each other, how we move through and understand space, and how we engage with the physical environment around us at any given moment.

    Sam Seavey, founder of TheBlindLife.com, reviews the possibilities and limitations of Apple’s VisionPro. (The Blind Life)

    We’re at a critical juncture where AI-enabled technologies used by individuals may profoundly impact our urban futures.

    What happens, for example, when wearables make any “place” a digital work or play place? What does a largely private-sector, consumer-driven, AI-enabled digital intervention into a city’s spaces mean for planning, zoning and taxation? What are the environmental costs of the global AI project?

    And crucially, who gets to participate in this digital reimagining?

    AI and the city

    While access can be challenging — wearables are often costly — ableist thinking regarding the use of technology to render invisible Blind and/or Deaf people and culture is also a problem. Some people might naively assume that all Blind and Deaf people are universally seeking a bio-technological “miracle.”

    There are also other challenges: how a technology captures or describes its data may not match up to a user’s pre-existing sense of place. Moreover, access to tech can produce some unintended consequences, including the erosion of in-person community building among disabled people.

    Hearing loss of some kind affects around 1.5 billion people: I am one of those people. I am a disability studies scholar who wears behind-the-ear hearing aids to augment my hearing experience.

    My hearing aids use AI and machine learning to sense and adjust my sound environment. They help me cope with the ways in which the places of my everyday life — such as my home or the lecture hall — are generally configured for people without hearing loss.

    When I use my hearing aids, I find that the city has never sounded so wonderful, and yet sometimes irritatingly loud. The sound of birds is one thing; the grinding sound of a breaking subway is another entirely.

    Cumulative exposure to noisy indoor and outdoor places of the city poses auditory health risks, such as noise-induced hearing loss or tinnitus, and can contribute to poor health more broadly. I have to be careful about ongoing noise exposure, and by adjusting the volume of my hearing aids, I can turn down the city when I want to.

    Future bodies and urban futures

    AI-powered technologies can exacerbate issues of access, privilege and freedom of movement. This happens both through who is able to purchase and use devices, as well as through data and their applications. Data may be biased in terms of race, gender, sexuality and disability.

    Scientific research and media representations tend to highlight the benevolent possibilities of technologies for “repairing” bodies conceived as being functionally medically deficient.

    Much less is said about disabled persons controlling the narrative, taking up key roles in the messy terrain of AI, machine learning and data governance, and in the planning and design of future cities.

    Digital modelling

    We are also witnessing growing interest in the digital twinning — creating highly accurate digital models — of everything from human hearts to entire cities.

    Whether rendered at the scale of the body or city, the motivation for twinning appears centred on planning and performance optimization — a quest for perfection. Like any model, we are dealing with an abstraction from reality. City twins seem to fail to capture many of the fine grain environmental barriers experienced by disabled persons.



    Read more:
    What are digital twins? A pair of computer modeling experts explain

    Ownership limits

    Not everyone can, should or wishes to be technologically “assisted” or augmented. There are medical, identity and culture, affordability, legal, moral and ethical concerns.



    Read more:
    Super-intelligence and eternal life: transhumanism’s faithful follow it blindly into a future for the elite

    Other issues raised by brain-computer interface research, for example, include concerns about legal capacity and ownership of the self, including ownership of device-generated data.

    In a study on the impact of neural technologies, researchers shared the legal repercussions relating to two disabled people deprived of voting rights in Spain. The person who recovered the ability to communicate autonomously using their finger and a computer had their rights restored, while the other, who used a human intermediary, did not.

    Legal questions also arise regarding how liability is assigned when augmented bodies are injured or cause injuries to others.

    Where does the person end and the technology begin, and vice versa? Who gets to decide?

    Future technologies

    As the use of AI and assistive technologies increases in everyday urban life, we will need to address these questions sooner rather than later.

    And if disabled persons are not adequately involved in these discussions and decisions, then cities will be less — rather than more — accessible.

    Ron Buliung does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI-powered assistive technologies are changing how we experience and imagine public space – https://theconversation.com/ai-powered-assistive-technologies-are-changing-how-we-experience-and-imagine-public-space-229836

    MIL OSI –