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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: California plan to ban most plants within 5 feet of homes for wildfire safety overlooks some important truths about flammability

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Max Moritz, Wildfire Specialist, University of California Cooperative Extension; Adjunct Professor at the Bren School, University of California at Santa Barbara, University of California, Santa Barbara

    Photos after the Los Angeles fires in January 2025 show many yards where vegetation didn’t burn while neighboring houses did. AP Photo/Chris Pizzello

    One of the most striking patterns in the aftermath of many urban fires is how much unburned green vegetation remains amid the wreckage of burned neighborhoods.

    In some cases, a row of shrubs may be all that separates a surviving house from one that burned just a few feet away.

    As scientists who study how vegetation ignites and burns, we recognize that well-maintained plants and trees can actually help protect homes from wind-blown embers and slow the spread of fire in some cases. So, we are concerned about new wildfire protection regulations being developed by the state of California that would prohibit almost all plants and other combustible material within 5 feet of homes, an area known as “Zone 0.”

    Photos before and after the 2025 Palisades Fire show thick green vegetation between two closely spaced homes. The arrow shows the direction of the fire’s spread.
    Max Moritz; CAL FIRE Damage Inspection photos, CC BY

    Wildfire safety guidelines have long encouraged homeowners to avoid having flammable materials next to their homes. But the state’s plan for an “ember-resistant zone,” being expedited under an executive order from Gov. Gavin Newsom, goes further by also prohibiting grass, shrubs and many trees in that area.

    If that prohibition remains in the final regulation, it’s likely to be met with public resistance. Getting these rules right also matters beyond California, because regulations that originate in California often ripple outward to other fire-prone regions.

    Lessons from the devastation

    Research into how vegetation can reduce fire risk is a relatively new area of study. However, the findings from plant flammability studies and examination of patterns of where vegetation and homes survive large urban fires highlight its importance.

    When surviving plants do appear scorched after these fires, it is often on the side of the plant facing a nearby structure that burned. That suggests that wind-blown embers ignited houses first: The houses were then the fuel as the fire spread through the neighborhood.

    We saw this repeatedly in the Los Angeles area after wildfires destroyed thousands of homes in January 2025. The pattern suggests a need to focus on the many factors that can influence home losses.

    Shrubs in Zone 0 of a home did not ignite during the Eaton Fire, despite the home burning.
    Max Moritz

    Several guides are available that explain steps homeowners can take to help protect houses, particularly from wind-blown embers, known as home hardening.

    For example, installing rain gutter covers to keep dead leaves from accumulating, avoiding flammable siding and ensuring that vents have screens to prevent embers from getting into the attic or crawl space can lower the risk of the home catching fire.

    However, guidance related to landscaping plants varies greatly and can even be incorrect.

    For example, some “fire-safe” plant lists contain species that are drought tolerant but not necessarily fire resistant. What matters more for keeping plants from becoming fuel for fires is how well they’re maintained and whether they’re properly watered.

    How a plant bursts into flames

    When living plant material is heated by a nearby energy source, such as a fire, the moisture inside it must be driven off before it can ignite. That evaporation cools the surrounding area and lowers the plant’s flammability.

    In many cases, high moisture can actually keep a plant from igniting. We’ve seen this in some of our experimental work and in other studies that test the flammability of ornamental landscaping.

    With enough heat, dried leaves and stems can break down and volatilize into gases. And, at that point, a nearby spark or flame can ignite these gases and set the plant on fire.

    Plant flammability testing shows how quickly twigs, grasses, plants and leaves will burn at different moisture levels. The images on the right are from an experiment at the University of California’s South Coast Research and Extension Center to test flammability of a living but overly dry plant.
    Max Moritz (left); Luca Carmignani (right)

    Even when the plant does burn, however, its moisture content can limit other aspects of flammability, such as how hot it burns.

    Up to the point that they actually burn, green, well-maintained plants can slow the spread of a fire by serving as “heat sinks,” absorbing energy and even blocking embers. This apparent protective role has been observed in both Australia and California studies of home losses.

    How often vegetation buffers homes from igniting during urban conflagrations is still unclear, but this capability has implications for regulations.

    California’s ‘Zone 0’ regulations

    The Zone 0 regulations California’s State Board of Forestry is developing are part of broader efforts to reduce fire risk around homes and communities. They would apply in regions considered at high risk of wildfires or defended by CAL FIRE, the state’s firefighting agency.

    Many of the latest Zone 0 recommendations, such as prohibiting mulch and attached fences made of materials that can burn, stem from large-scale tests conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. These features can be systematically analyzed.

    But vegetation is far harder to model. The state’s proposed Zone 0 regulations oversimplify complex conditions in real neighborhoods and go beyond what is currently known from scientific research regarding plant flammability.

    Green lawns, trees and shrubs were still visible after the Eaton Fire burned homes in Altadena, Calif., in January 2025.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    A mature, well-pruned shrub or tree with a high crown may pose little risk of burning and can even reduce exposure to fires by blocking wind and heat and intercepting embers. Aspen trees, for example, have been recommended to reduce fire risk near structures or other high-value assets.

    In contrast, dry, unmanaged plants under windows or near fences may ignite rapidly and make it more likely that the house itself will catch fire.

    As California and other states develop new wildfire regulations, they need to recognize the protective role that well-managed plants can play, along with many other benefits of urban vegetation.

    We believe the California proposal’s current emphasis on highly prescriptive vegetation removal, instead of on maintenance, is overly simplistic. Without complementary requirements for hardening the homes themselves, widespread clearing of landscaping immediately around homes could do little to reduce risk and have unintended consequences.

    Max Moritz has nothing to disclose.

    Luca Carmignani has nothing to disclose.

    – ref. California plan to ban most plants within 5 feet of homes for wildfire safety overlooks some important truths about flammability – https://theconversation.com/california-plan-to-ban-most-plants-within-5-feet-of-homes-for-wildfire-safety-overlooks-some-important-truths-about-flammability-257109

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 3 ways the government can silence opinions it disagrees with, without using censorship

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory P. Magarian, Thomas and Karole Green Professor of Law, Washington University in St. Louis

    The government can make you silence yourself — out of fear. Deepak Sethi, iStock/Getty Images Plus

    When most people think of how governments stifle free speech, they think of censorship. That’s when a government directly blocks or suppresses speech. In the past, the federal government has censored speech in various ways. It has tried to block news outlets from publishing certain stories. It has punished political dissenters. It has banned sales of “obscene” books.

    Today, however, the federal government rarely tries to censor speech so crudely. It has less blatant but very effective ways to suppress dissent. The current actions of the Trump administration show how government can silence speakers without censoring them.

    My quarter century of research and writing about First Amendment rights has explored the varied tools that governments use to smother free expression. Among the present administration’s chosen tools are making institutions stop or change their advocacy to get government benefits; inducing self-censorship through intimidation; and molding the government’s own speech to promote official ideology.

    A page from the CDC’s website, where the Trump administration states that it rejects the ‘gender ideology’ presented on the page.
    CDC.gov

    Using benefits to coerce speech

    The Supreme Court has made clear that the First Amendment bars the government from conditioning benefits on the sacrifice of free speech.

    Government employers may not refuse to hire employees of the opposing political party, nor may they stop employees from speaking publicly about political issues. The government may not stop funding nonprofits because they refuse to endorse official policies, or because they make arguments the government opposes.

    The First Amendment, however, works only if someone asks a court to enforce it, or at least threatens to do so.

    The Trump administration has issued orders that withdraw security clearances, cancel government contracts and bar access to government buildings for law firms that have opposed the administration’s policies or have advocated diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI. Some law firms have sued to block the orders. More firms, however, have made deals with the administration, agreeing to end DEI programs and to do free legal work for conservative causes.

    The administration similarly has withheld funding from universities that embrace DEI or that, by the administration’s account, have fomented or tolerated antisemitism. Harvard University has resisted that pressure. But Columbia University has capitulated to President Donald Trump’s demands that include cracking down on protests, giving university officials more control over controversial academic programs and hiring more conservative professors.

    The Supreme Court may ultimately declare the administration’s gambits unconstitutional, but it has already succeeded in leveraging government benefits to make major institutions change their speech.

    Intimidating speakers into silence

    First Amendment law also restricts government actions that deter or “chill” expression rather than squarely banning it.

    That means the government may not regulate speech through vague laws that leave lawful speakers uncertain whether the regulation reaches them. For example, the Supreme Court in 1971 struck down a Cincinnati, Ohio, ordinance that criminalized any public assembly the city deemed “annoying.”

    Likewise, the government may not make people disclose their identities as a requirement for acquiring controversial literature or for supporting unpopular causes. In the classic case, the Supreme Court during the civil rights era blocked Alabama from making the NAACP disclose its membership list.

    Chilling of speech is hard to detect, but the current public climate strongly suggests that the Trump administration has plunged the thermostat.

    College and university campuses, which rumbled in spring 2024 with protests against the Gaza war, have gone largely quiet. Large corporations that challenged the first Trump presidency have fallen into line behind the second. Big liberal donors have folded up their wallets.

    Some of that dampening likely reflects fatigue and resignation. Much of it, though, appears to reveal successful intimidation.

    The administration has proclaimed that it is deporting noncitizen students, using their lawful speech as justification. While those expulsions themselves are classic censorship, their hidden reach may stifle more speech than their immediate grasp. Noncitizens are legally attractive targets for government censorship because courts largely defer to the president on matters of national security and immigration.

    The Trump administration could not lawfully treat U.S. citizens as it is treating, lawfully or not, foreign nationals. But most citizens don’t know that. The vivid spectacle of punished dissenters seems likely to chill other dissenters.

    Whitewashing government speech

    The First Amendment only bars the government from controlling private speech. When the government speaks, it can say what it wants. That means people who speak for the government lack any First Amendment right to replace the government’s messages with their own.

    In theory, then, every new federal administration could sweepingly turn government institutions’ speech into narrow propaganda. That hasn’t happened before, perhaps because most governments realize they are just temporary custodians of an abiding republic.

    The Trump administration has broken this norm. The administration has ordered the purging of ideologically disfavored content from the Smithsonian museums, implemented book bans in military libraries and installed political supporters to run cultural institutions.

    None of those actions likely violates the First Amendment. All of them, however, have significant implications for free speech. In what may be the most quoted line in the First Amendment legal canon, Justice Robert Jackson declared in 1943 that government should never “prescribe what shall be orthodox … in matters of opinion.”

    A 21st-century federal government can dramatically skew public discourse by honing government speech with the flint of official ideology. Trump has assigned Vice President JD Vance, who sits on the Smithsonian’s board, the role of “seeking to remove improper ideology.” If Vance decides what the Smithsonian can and cannot say about slavery and Jim Crow, then the Smithsonian will teach people only what Vance wants them to learn about those subjects. That influential source of knowledge will push public discussion toward the government’s ideology.

    When government beneficiaries agree to say what the president wants, when the government intimidates speakers to silence themselves, and when the government sharpens its own speech into propaganda, no censorship happens.

    But in all those scenarios, the government is doing exactly what justifies fear of censorship and what First Amendment law exists to prevent: using official power to make speech less free.

    Gregory P. Magarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 3 ways the government can silence opinions it disagrees with, without using censorship – https://theconversation.com/3-ways-the-government-can-silence-opinions-it-disagrees-with-without-using-censorship-254249

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New model helps to figure out which distant planets may host life

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel Apai, Associate Dean for Research and Professor of Astronomy and Planetary Sciences, University of Arizona

    Some ‘water worlds’ like Jupiter’s moon Europa could potentially be habitable for life. NASA/JPL-Caltech/SETI Institute

    The search for life beyond Earth is a key driver of modern astronomy and planetary science. The U.S. is building multiple major telescopes and planetary probes to advance this search. However, the signs of life – called biosignatures – that scientists may find will likely be difficult to interpret. Figuring out where exactly to look also remains challenging.

    I am an astrophysicist and astrobiologist with over 20 years of experience studying extrasolar planets – which are planets beyond our solar system.

    My colleagues and I have developed a new approach that will identify the most interesting planets or moons to search for life and help interpret potential biosignatures. We do this by modeling how different organisms may fare in different environments, informed by studies of limits of life on Earth.

    New telescopes to search for life

    Astronomers are developing plans and technology for increasingly powerful space telescopes. For instance, NASA is working on its proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory, which would take ultrasharp images that directly show the planets orbiting nearby stars.

    My colleagues and I are developing another concept, the Nautilus space telescope constellation, which is designed to study hundreds of potentially Earthlike planets as they pass in front of their host stars.

    Future telescopes, like the proposed Nautilus, could help search the skies for habitable planets.
    Katie Yung, Daniel Apai /University of Arizona and AllThingsSpace /SketchFab, CC BY-ND

    These and other future telescopes aim to provide more sensitive studies of more alien worlds. Their development prompts two important questions: “Where to look?” and “Are the environments where we think we see signs of life actually habitable?”

    The strongly disputed claims of potential signs of life in the exoplanet K2-18b, announced in April 2025, and previous similar claims in Venus, show how difficult it is to conclusively identify the presence of life from remote-sensing data.

    When is an alien world habitable?

    Oxford Languages defines “habitable” as “suitable or good enough to live in.” But how do scientists know what is “good enough to live in” for extraterrestrial organisms? Could alien microbes frolic in lakes of boiling acid or frigid liquid methane, or float in water droplets in Venus’ upper atmosphere?

    To keep it simple, NASA’s mantra has been “follow the water.” This makes sense – water is essential for all Earth life we know of. A planet with liquid water would also have a temperate environment. It wouldn’t be so cold that it slows down chemical reactions, nor would it be so hot that it destroys the complex molecules necessary for life.

    However, with astronomers’ rapidly growing capabilities for characterizing alien worlds, astrobiologists need an approach that is more quantitative and nuanced than the water or no-water classification.

    A community effort

    As part of the NASA-funded Alien Earths project that I lead, astrobiologist Rory Barnes and I worked on this problem with a group of experts – astrobiologists, planetary scientists, exoplanet experts, ecologists, biologists and chemists – drawn from the largest network of exoplanet and astrobiology researchers, NASA’s Nexus for Exoplanet System Science, or NExSS.

    Over a hundred colleagues provided us with ideas, and two questions came up often:

    First, how do we know what life needs, if we do not understand the full range of extraterrestrial life? Scientists know a lot about life on Earth, but most astrobiologists agree that more exotic types of life – perhaps based on different combinations of chemical elements and solvents – are possible. How do we determine what conditions those other types of life may require?

    Second, the approach has to work with incomplete data. Potential sites for life beyond Earth – “extrasolar habitats” – are very difficult to study directly, and often impossible to visit and sample.

    For example, the Martian subsurface remains mostly out of our reach. Places like Jupiter’s moon Europa’s and Saturn’s Moon Enceladus’ subsurface oceans and all extrasolar planets remain practically unreachable. Scientists study them indirectly, often only using remote observations. These measurements can’t tell you as much as actual samples would.

    Mars’ hot, dusty surface is hostile for life. But scientists haven’t been able to study whether some organisms could lurk beneath.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech/Malin Space Science Systems

    To make matters worse, measurements often have uncertainties. For example, we may be only 88% confident that water vapor is present in an exoplanet’s atmosphere. Our framework has to be able to work with small amounts of data and handle uncertainties. And, we need to accept that the answers will often not be black or white.

    A new approach to habitability

    The new approach, called the quantitative habitability framework, has two distinguishing features:

    First, we moved away from trying to answer the vague “habitable to life” question and narrowed it to a more specific and practically answerable question: Would the conditions in the habitat – as we know them – allow a specific (known or yet unknown) species or ecosystem to survive?

    Even on Earth, organisms require different conditions to survive – there are no camels in Antarctica. By talking about specific organisms, we made the question easier to answer.

    Second, the quantitative habitability framework does not insist on black-or-white answers. It compares computer models to calculate a probabilistic answer. Instead of assuming that liquid water is a key limiting factor, we compare our understanding of the conditions an organism requires (the “organism model”) with our understanding of the conditions present in the environment (the “habitat model”).

    Both have uncertainties. Our understanding of each can be incomplete. Yet, we can handle the uncertainties mathematically. By comparing the two models, we can determine the probability that an organism and a habitat are compatible.

    As a simplistic example, our habitat model for Antarctica may state that temperatures are often below freezing. And our organism model for a camel may state that it does not survive long in cold temperatures. Unsurprisingly, we would correctly predict a near-zero probability that Antarctica is a good habitat for camels.

    A hydrothermal vent deep in the Atlantic Ocean. These vents discharge incredibly hot plumes of water, but some host hearty microorganisms.
    P. Rona / OAR/National Undersea Research Program (NURP); NOAA

    We had a blast working on this project. To study the limits of life, we collected literature data on extreme organisms, from insects that live in the Himalayas at high altitudes and low temperatures to microorganisms that flourish in hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor and feed on chemical energy.

    We explored, via our models, whether they may survive in the Martian subsurface or in Europa’s oceans. We also investigated if marine bacteria that produce oxygen in Earth’s oceans could potentially survive on known extrasolar planets.

    Although comprehensive and detailed, this approach makes important simplifications. For example, it does not yet model how life may shape the planet, nor does it account for the full array of nutrients organisms may need. These simplifications are by design.

    In most of the environments we currently study, we know too little about the conditions to meaningfully attempt such models – except for some solar system bodies, such as Saturn’s Enceladus.

    The quantitative habitability framework allows my team to answer questions like whether astrobiologists might be interested in a subsurface location on Mars, given the available data, or whether astronomers should turn their telescopes to planet A or planet B while searching for life. Our framework is available as an open-source computer model, which astrobiologists can now readily use and further develop to help with current and future projects.

    If scientists do detect a potential signature of life, this approach can help assess if the environment where it is detected can actually support the type of life that leads to the signature detected.

    Our next steps will be to build a database of terrestrial organisms that live in extreme environments and represent the limits of life. To this data, we can also add models for hypothetical alien life. By integrating those into the quantitative habitability framework, we will be able to work out scenarios, interpret new data coming from other worlds and guide the search for signatures of life beyond Earth – in our solar system and beyond.

    Daniel Apai receives funding from NASA, Heising-Simons Foundation, Department of Defense, Space Telescope Science Institute, and the University of Arizona, and leads the NASA-funded Alien Earths astrobiology research team that developed the framework described here. He is affiliated with the Steward Observatory and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory of The University of Arizona.

    – ref. New model helps to figure out which distant planets may host life – https://theconversation.com/new-model-helps-to-figure-out-which-distant-planets-may-host-life-256427

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Debunking 5 myths about when your devices get wet

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rachel Plotnick, Associate Professor of Cinema and Media Studies, Indiana University

    Consumer technologies get wet as a regular part of everyday life. Shuvro Mojumder/Unsplash , CC BY-SA

    Nearly everyone has encountered the unthinkable: Your smartphone landed in the toilet. Or you forgot to take off your smartwatch before jumping into the pool. Or maybe you meant to take those earbuds out of your pocket before running the laundry. What now?

    Internet forums are chock-full of advice to dry out that drenched device, but problematic myths about liquid protection and repair make it hard for consumers to separate fact from fiction.

    I’m a researcher who studies how technologies play a part in people’s everyday practices and experiences. My new book, “License to Spill: Where Dry Devices Meet Liquid Lives,” explores the wet-dry boundary in how people perceive and treat their electronic devices.

    Here are five common myths about getting devices wet:

    Myth 1: My device turned back on! It’s fine

    While it’s a relief to see your technology rise from the dead, what you can’t see are subtle processes occurring inside, like corrosion. The breakdown of your device’s metal parts due to moisture often happens over time, in a period that can take place days, weeks or months after the offending incident.

    That’s why even humidity from moist climates or your steamy shower can make a long-term impact, despite the fact that everything booted up right away after a splash or dunk.

    Myth 2: My ‘waterproof’ device can tolerate any kind of wetness

    The term “waterproof” is a controversial one – so controversial, in fact, that the Federal Trade Commission has strict rules about using the term in advertising, once even banning it from ad copy selling wristwatches.

    Given the vagueness of the term, it’s better to examine different water resistance standards, such as ingress protection, or IP, ratings and MIL-SPEC, or ISO in the case of watches, and to read the fine print about what those standards actually cover.

    Myth 3: My device has a great IP rating, so it’s been tested under real-world conditions

    Companies often advertise IP ratings as a way to entice consumers to purchase their products, but it’s important to know that these ratings are based on contact with fresh water. If you’re worried about Jacuzzi suds or that tipped-over can of beer, there’s no guarantee that a manufacturer has tested your device in these – often sticky – situations, and an IP rating won’t account for them.

    Myth 4: I’ve got some rice in the kitchen. I can fix this myself!

    It’s natural to panic and seek out the quickest household solution when a spill or dunk happens, and a cup of rice is still a commonly sought-out option.

    However, the rice hack doesn’t work very well, and rice particles can enter the device to cause even further damage. Aside from bringing your device to a professional repairer, you’re better off immediately powering down your product, removing its battery and plug if you can, and letting all the components dry over a day or two.

    Myth 5: Well, this device is broken, but I’ve got a warranty to replace it

    While you’re pulling your product from its watery grave, you might find relief in the fact that it came with a warranty. Not so fast.

    Most traditional consumer technology limited warranties don’t cover liquid damage. These days, you usually need to purchase an add-on warranty, often called Accidental Damage from Handling. Beware, though: Even those policies may limit how many wetness “incidents” or “events” you’re allowed per year.

    Air flow is the best way to dry a device that’s taken a dunk. Don’t expose your device directly to rice, cat litter or other particles.

    Keeping it realistic

    Water resistance features on devices like laptops, tablets, smartphones and smartwatches have recently improved, but the deck is still often stacked against consumers who must wade through the hype of advertising claims, mystifying classification systems and penalizing policies.

    That’s why it’s critical for manufacturers to think carefully and ethically about how their products are designed, marketed and serviced. In terms of design, water resistance is no longer a niche feature meant solely for industrial workers or outdoor adventurers. While it’s unrealistic to expect a device that’s designed to resist every hazard, it’s also unreasonable to ask consumers to tiptoe around the products that provide them with access to critical resources and social support.

    It’s important for manufacturers to avoid promising consumers the Moon. Samsung Australia, for instance, paid AU$14 million in penalties for exaggerating its phones’ protection for swimming. It’s certainly fun to watch commercials with Lil Wayne spray a smartphone with champagne or see him dunk it in a fish tank, but if manufacturers are advising against these practices, then they shouldn’t be romanticizing them.

    Sure, it’s probably common sense that your phone shouldn’t take a bath in champagne. Yet life is constantly happening around – and with – our devices, from the shower and the kitchen to the gym and the beach. This means that fairer policies around repair, like those promoted by the right-to-repair movement, and warranties should stop treating consumers like they’re “bad” users.

    After all, we’re each just one splash away from crying over spilled milk.

    Rachel Plotnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Debunking 5 myths about when your devices get wet – https://theconversation.com/debunking-5-myths-about-when-your-devices-get-wet-257205

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Robots run out of energy long before they run out of work to do − feeding them could change that

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James Pikul, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Robots can run, but they can’t go the distance. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

    Earlier this year, a robot completed a half-marathon in Beijing in just under 2 hours and 40 minutes. That’s slower than the human winner, who clocked in at just over an hour – but it’s still a remarkable feat. Many recreational runners would be proud of that time. The robot kept its pace for more than 13 miles (21 kilometers).

    But it didn’t do so on a single charge. Along the way, the robot had to stop and have its batteries swapped three times. That detail, while easy to overlook, speaks volumes about a deeper challenge in robotics: energy.

    Modern robots can move with incredible agility, mimicking animal locomotion and executing complex tasks with mechanical precision. In many ways, they rival biology in coordination and efficiency. But when it comes to endurance, robots still fall short. They don’t tire from exertion – they simply run out of power.

    As a robotics researcher focused on energy systems, I study this challenge closely. How can researchers give robots the staying power of living creatures – and why are we still so far from that goal? Though most robotics research into the energy problem has focused on better batteries, there is another possibility: Build robots that eat.

    Robots move well but run out of steam

    Modern robots are remarkably good at moving. Thanks to decades of research in biomechanics, motor control and actuation, machines such as Boston Dynamics’ Spot and Atlas can walk, run and climb with an agility that once seemed out of reach. In some cases, their motors are even more efficient than animal muscles.

    But endurance is another matter. Spot, for example, can operate for just 90 minutes on a full charge. After that, it needs nearly an hour to recharge. These runtimes are a far cry from the eight- to 12-hour shifts expected of human workers – or the multiday endurance of sled dogs.

    The issue isn’t how robots move – it’s how they store energy. Most mobile robots today use lithium-ion batteries, the same type found in smartphones and electric cars. These batteries are reliable and widely available, but their performance improves at a slow pace: Each year new lithium-ion batteries are about 7% better than the previous generation. At that rate, it would take a full decade to merely double a robot’s runtime.

    Robots such as Boston Dynamic’s Atlas are remarkably capable – for relatively short amounts of time.

    Animals store energy in fat, which is extraordinarily energy dense: nearly 9 kilowatt-hours per kilogram. That’s about 68 kWh total in a sled dog, similar to the energy in a fully charged Tesla Model 3. Lithium-ion batteries, by contrast, store just a fraction of that, about 0.25 kilowatt-hours per kilogram. Even with highly efficient motors, a robot like Spot would need a battery dozens of times more powerful than today’s to match the endurance of a sled dog.

    And recharging isn’t always an option. In disaster zones, remote fields or on long-duration missions, a wall outlet or a spare battery might be nowhere in sight.

    In some cases, robot designers can add more batteries. But more batteries mean more weight, which increases the energy required to move. In highly mobile robots, there’s a careful balance between payload, performance and endurance. For Spot, for example, the battery already makes up 16% of its weight.

    Some robots have used solar panels, and in theory these could extend runtime, especially for low-power tasks or in bright, sunny environments. But in practice, solar power delivers very little power relative to what mobile robots need to walk, run or fly at practical speeds. That’s why energy harvesting like solar panels remains a niche solution today, better suited for stationary or ultra-low-power robots.

    Why it matters

    These aren’t just technical limitations. They define what robots can do.

    A rescue robot with a 45-minute battery might not last long enough to complete a search. A farm robot that pauses to recharge every hour can’t harvest crops in time. Even in warehouses or hospitals, short runtimes add complexity and cost.

    If robots are to play meaningful roles in society assisting the elderly, exploring hazardous environments and working alongside humans, they need the endurance to stay active for hours, not minutes.

    New battery chemistries such as lithium-sulfur and metal-air offer a more promising path forward. These systems have much higher theoretical energy densities than today’s lithium-ion cells. Some approach levels seen in animal fat. When paired with actuators that efficiently convert electrical energy from the battery to mechanical work, they could enable robots to match or even exceed the endurance of animals with low body fat. But even these next-generation batteries have limitations. Many are difficult to recharge, degrade over time or face engineering hurdles in real-world systems.

    Fast charging can help reduce downtime. Some emerging batteries can recharge in minutes rather than hours. But there are trade-offs. Fast charging strains battery life, increases heat and often requires heavy, high-power charging infrastructure. Even with improvements, a fast-charging robot still needs to stop frequently. In environments without access to grid power, this doesn’t solve the core problem of limited onboard energy. That’s why researchers are exploring alternatives such as “refueling” robots with metal or chemical fuels – much like animals eat – to bypass the limits of electrical charging altogether.

    Robots could one day harvest energy from high-energy-density materials such as aluminum through synthetic digestive and vascular systems.
    Yichao Shi and James Pikul

    An alternative: Robotic metabolism

    In nature, animals don’t recharge, they eat. Food is converted into energy through digestion, circulation and respiration. Fat stores that energy, blood moves it and muscles use it. Future robots could follow a similar blueprint with synthetic metabolisms.

    Some researchers are building systems that let robots “digest” metal or chemical fuels and breathe oxygen. For example, synthetic, stomachlike chemical reactors could convert high-energy materials such as aluminum into electricity.

    This builds on the many advances in robot autonomy, where robots can sense objects in a room and navigate to pick them up, but here they would be picking up energy sources.

    Other researchers are developing fluid-based energy systems that circulate like blood. One early example, a robotic fish, tripled its energy density by using a multifunctional fluid instead of a standard lithium-ion battery. That single design shift delivered the equivalent of 16 years of battery improvements, not through new chemistry but through a more bioinspired approach. These systems could allow robots to operate for much longer stretches of time, drawing energy from materials that store far more energy than today’s batteries.

    In animals, the energy system does more than just provide energy. Blood helps regulate temperature, deliver hormones, fight infections and repair wounds. Synthetic metabolisms could do the same. Future robots might manage heat using circulating fluids or heal themselves using stored or digested materials. Instead of a central battery pack, energy could be stored throughout the body in limbs, joints and soft, tissuelike components.

    This approach could lead to machines that aren’t just longer-lasting but more adaptable, resilient and lifelike.

    The bottom line

    Today’s robots can leap and sprint like animals, but they can’t go the distance.

    Their bodies are fast, their minds are improving, but their energy systems haven’t caught up. If robots are going to work alongside humans in meaningful ways, we’ll need to give them more than intelligence and agility. We’ll need to give them endurance.

    James Pikul receives funding from the Office of Naval Research. He is affiliated with the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Metal Light Inc.

    – ref. Robots run out of energy long before they run out of work to do − feeding them could change that – https://theconversation.com/robots-run-out-of-energy-long-before-they-run-out-of-work-to-do-feeding-them-could-change-that-255940

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 tips for hurricane disaster planning with aging parents starting now, before the storms

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lee Ann Rawlins Williams, Clinical Assistant Professor of Education, Health and Behavior Studies, University of North Dakota

    When I lived in Florida, I had a neighbor named Ms. Carmen. She was in her late 70s, fiercely independent and lived alone with her two dogs and one cat, which were her closest companions.

    Each hurricane season, she would anxiously ask if I would check on her when the winds began to pick up. She once told me: I’m more afraid of being forgotten than of the storm itself. Her fear wasn’t just about the weather; it was about facing it alone.

    When hurricanes hit, we often measure the damage in downed power lines, flooded roads and wind-torn homes. But some of the most serious consequences are harder to see, especially for older adults who may struggle with mobility, chronic health problems and cognitive decline.

    Emergency preparedness plans too often overlook the specific needs of elders in America’s aging population, many of whom live alone. For people like Ms. Carmen, resilience needs to start long before the storm.

    The number of older adults in the U.S. and the percentage of the population age 65 and older have been rising.
    US Census Bureau

    I study disaster preparations and response. To prepare for hurricane season, and any other disaster, I encourage families to work with their older adults now to create an emergency plan. Preparing can help ensure that older adults will be safe, able to contact relatives or others for help, and will have the medications, documents and supplies they need, as well as the peace of mind of knowing what steps to take.

    Recent hurricanes show the gaps

    In 2024, Hurricanes Helene and Milton put a spotlight on the risks to older adults.

    The storms forced thousands of people to evacuate, often to shelters with little more than food supplies and mattresses on the floor and ill-equipped for medical needs.

    Flooding isolated many rural homes, stranding older adults. Power was out for weeks in some areas. Emergency systems were overwhelmed.

    A tornado tore into a senior community in Port St. Lucie, Florida, during Milton, killing six people. Some long-term care facilities lost power and water during Helene.

    At the same time, some older adults chose to stay in homes in harm’s way for fear that they would be separated from their pets or that their homes would be vandalized.

    At least 700 people stayed in chairs or on air mattresses at River Ridge Middle/High School in New Port Richey, Fla., during Hurricane Milton.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    These events are not just tragic, they are predictable. Many older adults cannot evacuate without assistance, and many evacuation centers aren’t prepared to handle their needs.

    How to prepare: 5 key steps

    Helping older adults prepare for emergencies should involve the entire family so everyone knows what to expect. The best plans are personal, practical and proactive, but they will contain some common elements.

    Here are five important steps:

    1. Prepare an emergency folder with important documents.

    Disasters can leave older adults without essential information and supplies that they need, such as prescription lists, financial records, medical devices and – importantly – contact information to reach family, friends and neighbors who could help them.

    Many older adults rely on preprogrammed phone numbers. If their phone is lost or the battery dies, they may not know how to reach friends or loved ones, so it’s useful to have a hard copy of phone numbers.

    Consider encouraging the use of medical ID bracelets or cards for those with memory loss.

    Critical documents like wills, home deeds, powers of attorney and insurance records are frequently kept in physical form and may be forgotten or lost in a sudden evacuation. Use waterproof storage that’s easy to carry, and share copies with trusted caregivers and family members in case those documents are lost.

    2. Have backup medications and equipment.

    Think about that person’s assistive devices and health needs. Having extra batteries on hand is important, as is remembering to bring chargers and personal mobility aids, such as walkers, canes, mobility scooters or wheelchairs. Do not forget that service animals support mobility, so having supplies of their food will be important during a hurricane or evacuation.

    Ask doctors to provide an emergency set of medications in case supplies run low in a disaster.

    If the person is staying in their home, prepare for at least 72 hours of self-sufficiency in case the power goes out. That means having enough bottled water, extra pet food and human food that doesn’t need refrigeration or cooking.

    3. Map evacuation routes and shelter options.

    Identify nearby shelters that will likely be able to support older adults’ mobility and cognitive challenges. If the person has pets, make a plan for them, too – many areas will have at least one pet-friendly shelter, but not all shelters will take pets.

    An older woman crosses a street flooded by torrential rain from Tropical Storm Hilary on Aug. 20, 2023, in Thousand Palms, Calif.
    AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

    Figure out how the person will get to a shelter, and have a backup plan in case their usual transportation isn’t an option. And decide where they will go and how they will get there if they can’t return home after a storm.

    If your loved one lives in a care facility, ask to see that facility’s hurricane plan.

    4. Create a multiperson check-in system.

    Don’t rely on just one caregiver or family member to check on older adults. Involve neighbors, faith communities or local services such as home-delivered meals, transportation assistance, support groups and senior centers. Redundancy is crucial when systems break down.

    5. Practice the plan.

    Go through evacuation steps in advance so everyone knows what to do. Executing the plan should be second nature, not a scramble during a disaster or crisis.

    Planning with, not just for, older adults

    Emergency planning isn’t something done for older adults – it’s something done with them.

    Elders bring not only vulnerability but also wisdom. Their preferences and autonomy will have to guide decisions for the plan to be successful in a crisis.

    That means listening to their needs, honoring their independence and making sure caregivers have realistic plans in place. It’s an important shift from just reacting to a storm to preparing with purpose.

    Lee Ann Rawlins Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 tips for hurricane disaster planning with aging parents starting now, before the storms – https://theconversation.com/5-tips-for-hurricane-disaster-planning-with-aging-parents-starting-now-before-the-storms-254917

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is AI sparking a cognitive revolution that will lead to mediocrity and conformity?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Wolfgang Messner, Clinical Professor of International Business, University of South Carolina

    The Industrial Revolution mechanized production. Today, there’s a similar risk with the automation of thought. kutaytanir/E+ via Getty Images

    Artificial Intelligence began as a quest to simulate the human brain.

    Is it now in the process of transforming the human brain’s role in daily life?

    The Industrial Revolution diminished the need for manual labor. As someone who researches the application of AI in international business, I can’t help but wonder whether it is spurring a cognitive revolution, obviating the need for certain cognitive processes as it reshapes how students, workers and artists write, design and decide.

    Graphic designers use AI to quickly create a slate of potential logos for their clients. Marketers test how AI-generated customer profiles will respond to ad campaigns. Software engineers deploy AI coding assistants. Students wield AI to draft essays in record time – and teachers use similar tools to provide feedback.

    The economic and cultural implications are profound.

    What happens to the writer who no longer struggles with the perfect phrase, or the designer who no longer sketches dozens of variations before finding the right one? Will they become increasingly dependent on these cognitive prosthetics, similar to how using GPS diminishes navigation skills? And how can human creativity and critical thinking be preserved in an age of algorithmic abundance?

    Echoes of the Industrial Revolution

    We’ve been here before.

    The Industrial Revolution replaced artisanal craftsmanship with mechanized production, enabling goods to be replicated and manufactured on a mass scale.

    Shoes, cars and crops could be produced efficiently and uniformly. But products also became more bland, predictable and stripped of individuality. Craftsmanship retreated to the margins, as a luxury or a form of resistance.

    Mass production strips goods of their individuality.
    Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Today, there’s a similar risk with the automation of thought. Generative AI tempts users to conflate speed with quality, productivity with originality.

    The danger is not that AI will fail us, but that people will accept the mediocrity of its outputs as the norm. When everything is fast, frictionless and “good enough,” there’s the risk of losing the depth, nuance and intellectual richness that define exceptional human work.

    The rise of algorithmic mediocrity

    Despite the name, AI doesn’t actually think.

    Tools such as ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini process massive volumes of human-created content, often scraped from the internet without context or permission. Their outputs are statistical predictions of what word or pixel is likely to follow based on patterns in data they’ve processed.

    They are, in essence, mirrors that reflect collective human creative output back to users – rearranged and recombined, but fundamentally derivative.

    And this, in many ways, is precisely why they work so well.

    Consider the countless emails people write, the slide decks strategy consultants prepare and the advertisements that suffuse social media feeds. Much of this content follows predictable patterns and established formulas. It has been there before, in one form or the other.

    Generative AI excels at producing competent-sounding content – lists, summaries, press releases, advertisements – that bears the signs of human creation without that spark of ingenuity. It thrives in contexts where the demand for originality is low and when “good enough” is, well, good enough.

    When AI sparks – and stifles – creativity

    Yet, even in a world of formulaic content, AI can be surprisingly helpful.

    In one set of experiments, researchers tasked people with completing various creative challenges. They found that those who used generative AI produced ideas that were, on average, more creative, outperforming participants who used web searches or no aids at all. In other words, AI can, in fact, elevate baseline creative performance.

    However, further analysis revealed a critical trade-off: Reliance on AI systems for brainstorming significantly reduced the diversity of ideas produced, which is a crucial element for creative breakthroughs. The systems tend to converge toward a predictable middle rather than exploring unconventional possibilities at the edges.

    I wasn’t surprised by these findings. My students and I have found that the outputs of generative AI systems are most closely aligned with the values and worldviews of wealthy, English-speaking nations. This inherent bias quite naturally constrains the diversity of ideas these systems can generate.

    More troubling still, brief interactions with AI systems can subtly reshape how people approach problems and imagine solutions.

    One set of experiments tasked participants with making medical diagnoses with the help of AI. However, the researchers designed the experiment so that AI would give some participants flawed suggestions. Even after those participants stopped using the AI tool, they tended to unconsciously adopt those biases and make errors in their own decisions.

    What begins as a convenient shortcut risks becoming a self-reinforcing loop of diminishing originality – not because these tools produce objectively poor content, but because they quietly narrow the bandwidth of human creativity itself.

    Navigating the cognitive revolution

    True creativity, innovation and research are not just probabilistic recombinations of past data. They require conceptual leaps, cross-disciplinary thinking and real-world experience. These are qualities AI cannot replicate. It cannot invent the future. It can only remix the past.

    What AI generates may satisfy a short-term need: a quick summary, a plausible design, a passable script. But it rarely transforms, and genuine originality risks being drowned in a sea of algorithmic sameness.

    The challenge, then, isn’t just technological. It’s cultural.

    How can the irreplaceable value of human creativity be preserved amid this flood of synthetic content?

    The historical parallel with industrialization offers both caution and hope. Mechanization displaced many workers but also gave rise to new forms of labor, education and prosperity. Similarly, while AI systems may automate some cognitive tasks, they may also open up new intellectual frontiers by simulating intellectual abilities. In doing so, they may take on creative responsibilities, such as inventing novel processes or developing criteria to evaluate their own outputs.

    This transformation is only at its early stages. Each new generation of AI models will produce outputs that once seemed like the purview of science fiction. The responsibility lies with professionals, educators and policymakers to shape this cognitive revolution with intention.

    Will it lead to intellectual flourishing or dependency? To a renaissance of human creativity or its gradual obsolescence?

    The answer, for now, is up in the air.

    Wolfgang Messner receives funding from Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER) at the University of South Carolina.

    – ref. Is AI sparking a cognitive revolution that will lead to mediocrity and conformity? – https://theconversation.com/is-ai-sparking-a-cognitive-revolution-that-will-lead-to-mediocrity-and-conformity-256940

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Africa’s new credit rating agency could change the rules of the game. Here’s how

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Daniel Cash, Reader in Law, Aston University

    For governments, a credit rating is more than a financial signal. It is a verdict that can influence the cost of borrowing, access to markets and, ultimately, the ability to provide for their citizens.

    Rating decisions are made behind closed doors in a private process that isn’t open to assessment or scrutiny.

    For African countries, this opacity can be especially damaging. When rating decisions lack transparency, it’s impossible to challenge potential biases or inconsistencies in methodology that put developing economies at a disadvantage. The result is higher borrowing costs that drain resources from healthcare, education and infrastructure investment.

    Africa’s new credit rating agency has the chance to change this. The African Credit Rating Agency is an initiative under development by the African Union and its partners. It is more than a new entrant; it is an attempt to rethink how financial authority is earned, exercised and scrutinised. The new agency plans to introduce transparent governance structures that could revolutionise rating methodology.

    As a researcher who has looked closely at the working of rating agencies, I believe this opportunity to bring transparency to financial governance isn’t just about better ratings. It’s a step towards economic sovereignty.

    Success for the African Credit Rating Agency shouldn’t be measured by whether it displaces the “big three” rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch). The real question isn’t whether an African agency can compete, but rather whether it can show the world how to rate credit differently.

    A flawed process

    The three big agencies do publish their methodologies – their criteria and risk models. This creates an illusion of transparency. Yet the final judgments emerge from committee meetings that produce no public record, no accountability, and no right of meaningful appeal.

    These rating committees typically comprise five to 10 analysts who meet in closed sessions to make each sovereign rating decision. S&P, Moody’s and Fitch each operate internal rating committees for every sovereign rating decision. The deliberations, dissenting views, and specific reasoning behind final votes remain confidential. Only a brief summary is provided with a rating decision.

    Research has shown that credit rating agencies are more accurate at assessing the creditworthiness of advanced economies than developing economies. There have also been studies on the discrepancy between what is expected when the public methodologies are applied and what the agencies actually rate. These studies have been done for economies like Hong Kong and China, but no equivalent research has yet been undertaken for African sovereigns.

    This discrepancy exposes an accountability void. When methodology-based predictions miss the mark, we must question what happens in those committee rooms. Especially when African nations are being assessed by analysts stationed continents away, with limited understanding of local economic and political realities.

    The African Credit Rating Agency could make three changes to the way ratings are done:

    • through public deliberations

    • by forming hybrid committees

    • with technological intervention.

    First, it could release committee transcripts within 30 days of each decision. This would give markets and governments unprecedented insight into rating rationales. This isn’t radical – central banks already publish meeting minutes, and courts publish opinions with dissenting views.

    Second, it could pioneer panels that include not only rating analysts, but regional economists, sectoral specialists, and even civil society observers. All with recorded votes. This diversified expertise would disrupt “group think” while capturing nuances of African economies that traditional agencies overlook.

    I have examined this idea from the perspective of injecting climate and sustainability-related expertise into credit rating committees. I believe this is a crucial step to take to evolve the concept of the credit rating committee.

    Third, the agency could use artificial intelligence to analyse patterns across committee discussions, flagging potential regional biases or inconsistent methodology application. It might be able to use secure digital ledgers to create unchangeable records of decisions.

    Why the big three keep it closed

    The industry thrives on privacy – protecting proprietary methodologies and shielding decisions from external challenge. And the natural oligopoly (a market dominated by a few large players due to high entry barriers, reinforced by market preference for predictability) helps it stay that way.

    The sovereign credit ratings of the three big agencies are built on quantitative and qualitative factors. But research shows that sovereign ratings are subjected to qualitative understandings. This puts developing economies at a disadvantage when agencies demonstrate pro-western biases because they lack data or knowledge.

    The impact of a credit rating downgrade for a sovereign borrower is usually multifaceted. Research shows that a single-notch downgrade can raise borrowing costs by more than 100 basis points, equivalent to an extra US$100 million annually on a US$10 billion bond.

    Investors prefer fewer, stronger signals rather than many competing views. So there’s little incentive for established players to change. The African Credit Rating Agency, as a new entrant, can offer something the incumbents won’t: governance innovation that serves both markets and nations.

    Radical openness will shake markets, at least at first. Committee members might face political pressure. Transparency alone doesn’t guarantee fair outcomes.

    But the world already demands transparency from central banks and constitutional courts. Why accept anything less from institutions that shape sovereign destiny?

    Next steps

    By 2050, one in four people on Earth will be African. The financial architecture serving them must evolve towards systems that recognise the continent’s unique strengths.

    Opening the rating committee to view represents more than technical reform – it’s about shifting who holds power in global finance. If it does this, the African agency won’t just deliver better ratings; it will model how global finance can be governed more justly.

    Daniel Cash does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Africa’s new credit rating agency could change the rules of the game. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/africas-new-credit-rating-agency-could-change-the-rules-of-the-game-heres-how-257138

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A film about long healing walk by the sea, the end of a dystopian series and a whimsical comfort watch – what to see, watch, read and listen to this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Naomi Joseph, Arts + Culture Editor

    At The Conversation, we are big believers in the health benefits of being near the sea. In fact, we have a whole series dedicated to how our health is intrinsically linked with that of the ocean, called Vitamin Sea. The idea of how the coast can heal is explored in the bestselling memoir The Saltpath, which has been adapted for the screen, and stars Gillian Anderson and Jason Isaacs.

    Anderson plays Raynor Winn who documented the whirlwind period that began with her husband Moth being given a terminal diagnosis. In the same week, they also lost their home. In the face of this, the couple made a wild decision: to take a 630-mile year-long coastal walk from Somerset to Dorset, through Devon and Cornwall.

    The South West Coast Path has over 115,000 feet of ascent and descent, which is equivalent to scaling Mount Everest four times. In this piece, lecturer in the history of science and the environment, Lena Ferriday explores how this decision might not have been as mad as it might seem.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The Winns’ decision to walk the path is part of a long history of people seeking wellness and recovery on England’s south-west coast. From taking in the clean air on long gentle walks to bathing in cold waters, it was common for the sickly to be prescribed a trip to the sea. And, as the Winns discover in this beautiful film, they find respite and connection in that history.

    Reply to this email to let us know if you have any thoughts on the healing qualities of the coast. We would also love you to answer our poll letting us what you think is the best nature memoir of our of favourite five. If your favourite isn’t there, email us its name.

    The Saltpath is in select cinemas now



    Read more:
    The Salt Path taps into a long history of searching for healing on England’s south-west coast

    The first season of The Handmaid’s Tale aired in 2017 in the early months of the first Trump presidency. Now in its sixth season, the drama is ending in the early months of the second Trump presidency. In that time, the show and its iconography have become synonymous with feminist resistance.

    When the Canadian writer Margaret Atwood first wrote The Handmaid’s Tale in 1985, Donald Trump was a mere real estate mogul. Some say it is eerie how she foresaw rising authoritarianism in the United States as well as the erosion of women’s rights. However, Atwood didn’t see the tale as science fiction, everything she wrote, she stressed, had already happened or was happening somewhere.

    In this piece, Canadian literature expert Sharon Engbrecht writes about Atwood has made many similar educated predictions about where the roots laid in history will come up in the future. While the last series does deviate somewhat from Atwood’s follow-up The Testaments, it is very much in-line with her view of the world. Hopefully, this last season ends in a much more hopeful place.

    The Handmaid’s Tale is airing on channel 4



    Read more:
    _The Handmaid’s Tale_ reflects Margaret Atwood’s eerie talent for reading the palm of power

    If you’re looking for something a bit more low stakes and whimsical then can we recommend checking out the film The Phoenician Scheme. Wes Anderson is a director with a very distinct vision, you can spot a work by him a mile away. This is what makes a director an auteur.

    Fans of his work have come to expect a few things from his films. The first is a star-studded ensemble. The second, a distinct colour palette. The third, boundless whimsy. The Phoenician Scheme has all of this, which as our expert in film Daniel O’Brien notes, will make some of you love it and others hate it.

    I like Wes Anderson films. They are incredibly charming and visually delicious. The Phoenician Scheme has more solid narrative than some of his recent films, which I, for one, welcome. It follows wealthy businessman, Zsa-zsa Korda (Benicio del Toro) after he makes his only daughter (Mia Threapleton), a nun, the sole heir to his estate before embarking on a new money-making scheme. Andersonian hijinks and shenanigans ensue as the pair dodge danger in the form of scheming tycoons, foreign terrorists and determined assassins.

    The Phoenician Scheme is in cinemas now

    The Coin by Yasmin Zaher is a bold debut novel about a young Palestinian woman who is struggling to keep it together. On the surface of things she has it all: she is a teacher at a New York city middle school, she is rich, stylish and meticulously clean. However, buried within her sits history that won’t leave her alone. To be precise, inside her sits an Israeli shekel that she accidentally swallowed on a family road trip during which her parents were killed.

    The knowledge of the coin and all it represents tears at the narrator, not letting her know peace. She is pushed to desperate acts in order to gain some sort of control over mind and body. But the coin does not relent. It won’t let her be. She is neither here nor there, in the US or Palestine. In this piece, literature expert Daniel G. Williams explains why he and his fellow judges awarded this debut the 2025 Dylan Thomas Prize.



    Read more:
    The Coin by Palestinian writer Yasmin Zaher wins the Dylan Thomas Prize – an expert from the judging panel explains why

    I love Pulp. One of my formative festival memories is watching a lanky Jarvis Cocker hump a giant neon Pulp sign while singing Disco 2000 at Reading festival. I was at a liberal arts uni at the time and the lyrics of Common People had never made more sense to me.

    As expert in popular music Mark Higgins writes, it’s a common misconception that Pulp were Brit Pop. In fact, they were founded in 1978 and their sound and whole shtick were quite a part from the 60’s mania of Britpop boy bands. Listening to the first single of this album Higgins notes, however, that the nostalgia for a better time seems to have hit Pulp belatedly as they wax lyrical about 90s.

    Next week, the band release their first album since 2001’s We Love Life. In the lead up to the release of their album More, I have been rediscovering their back catalogue and I would highly recommend you all do the same this sunny weekend.

    More by Pulp is out June 6



    Read more:
    Pulp are back and more wistfully Britpop than before

    – ref. A film about long healing walk by the sea, the end of a dystopian series and a whimsical comfort watch – what to see, watch, read and listen to this week – https://theconversation.com/a-film-about-long-healing-walk-by-the-sea-the-end-of-a-dystopian-series-and-a-whimsical-comfort-watch-what-to-see-watch-read-and-listen-to-this-week-257849

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will surging sea levels kill the Great Barrier Reef? Ancient coral fossils may hold the answer

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jody Webster, Professor of Marine Geoscience, University of Sydney

    marcobriviophoto.com

    In the 20th century, global sea level rose faster than at any other time in the past 3,000 years. It’s expected to rise even further by 2100, as human-induced climate change intensifies. In fact, some studies predict a rise of up to 1.6 metres and possibly more due to the rapid melting of the Antarctic ice sheets.

    These changes will have huge impacts on coastal ecosystems around the world, including coral reefs. To understand these future impacts, it can be useful to understand similar events from history.

    Our new research, published today in Nature Communications, does just that. It reveals how the Great Barrier Reef in northern Australia responded to a dramatic rise in sea level some 13,000 to 10,000 years ago.

    A hotly debated event

    Several “meltwater pulse events” have been documented in the past. These occur when ice sheets disintegrate in a catastrophic fashion, resulting in a rapid surge in global sea levels.

    One of these events, known as “meltwater pulse 1B”, remains hotly debated. It occurred roughly 11,500 years ago.

    Early evidence from reef cores in Barbados suggested a sharp sea-level rise of approximately 14 metres between 11,450 and 11,100 years ago, with rates of roughly 40 millimetres per year.

    Remarkably, this rate is about ten times faster than the current global rise.

    However, this record conflicts with others, including from Tahiti and now from the Great Barrier Reef, which suggests a more gradual rise in sea levels.

    Learning from geological archives

    Somewhat paradoxically shallow-water reef systems can “drown” because corals, and other reef organisms, depend on light for photosynthesis. If the water gets too deep too fast, the reef will no longer keep up with the rise and it will drown.

    But drowning can also occur due to other factors, such as increased temperature, sediment and nutrients, which can also add extra environmental stress to the reef – again making it more difficult to grow vertically and keep up with sea level rise.

    Cores gathered from drowned fossil coral reefs preserved along the continental shelf edge of the Great Barrier Reef contain crucial information about historic corals, coralline algae and microbial reef structures known as microbialites. They offer a unique geologic time machine to better understand how past periods of rapid global sea level rise affected reef growth.

    These geological archives also provide important clues about how ice sheets behaved in response to rapid global warming.

    In 2010, an expedition of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program used a geotechnical drill ship to sample below the seafloor and reconstruct the growth and demise of the Great Barrier Reef over the past roughly 30,000 years. Five distinct stages were identified in response to major global climatic and oceanographic disturbances.

    In this new study, we focused on a key reef stage called Reef 4. It formed between 13,000 and 10,000 years ago, just prior to the start of the modern reef as we know it.

    We refer to this reef as the “proto-Great Barrier Reef”. Once a shallow-water barrier reef system, it now exists in a fossilised form at roughly 50 metres water depth and is now the home to deeper reef communtites in the mesophotic zone 30 to 150 metres below the surface.

    The RV Great Ship Maya was used to recover fossil reef samples from the Great Barrier Reef in 2010.
    G.Tulloch/European Consortium for Ocean Research Drilling/Integrated Ocean Drilling Program

    An impressive ability to keep pace

    Our study shows the Great Barrier Reef didn’t drown during meltwater pulse 1B. In fact, it continued to thrive with clear evidence of healthy, shallow-water reef assemblages (living in waters less than ten metres deep) persisting right through the rise in sea levels.

    The reef not only survived but continued to grow upwards at rates between 4–6 millimetres per year. This rate of growth is comparable to modern healthy reef growth rates, demonstrating an impressive ability to keep pace.

    We also calculated that the maximum possible sea-level rise during meltwater pulse 1B was between 7.7 and 10.2 metres over roughly 350 years. This equates to between 23 and 30 millimetres per year, but was likely less.

    This is less than the Barbados estimate, and more consistent with observations from Tahiti where no sharp sea-level jump was found.

    Importantly, this indicates that even the upper sea level rise bounds are within the survival limits of resilient reef systems such as the Great Barrier Reef – especially when environmental stressors, such as ocean warming, ocean acidification and sedimentation are low.

    UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee recently expressed utmost concern about the current state of the Great Barrier Reef.
    Darkydoors/Shutterstock

    Limits to a reef’s resilience

    Although the Great Barrier Reef survived sea level rise roughly 11,000 years ago, the world was very different back then.

    Coral reefs faced less stress from human impacts. And ocean temperatures were rising more slowly.

    But today’s reefs are already struggling, with UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee recently expressing “utmost concern” about the state of the Great Barrier Reef in particular.

    This is due to warming, acidification and pollution. And these additional challenges decrease reefs’ ability to cope with rapid sea-level rise.

    Our findings suggest abrupt sea-level jumps of more than 11 metres are unlikely to occur without major instabilities in ice sheets. The fact that such collapses likely didn’t happen during meltwater pulse 1B offers some reassurance. But we’re in uncharted territory now, particularly with the Antarctic ice sheet displaying early signs of instability.

    Our study also shows the Great Barrier Reef has been remarkably resilient, adapting to changing sea levels and continuing to grow even as the ocean rose rapidly. This resilience, however, had limits. Ultimately, the reef we examined drowned roughly 10,000 years ago, likely due to a combination of environmental stressors, including increased sediment flux. At this time the shallow water reef ecosystem migrated landward to form the modern Great Barrier, leaving behind only deeper, mesophotic reef communities.

    The lessons from the past are clear: reefs can adapt to environmental changes but there are limits.

    Protecting modern reefs will require more than understanding their past. It means reducing emissions and limiting other environmental stresses such as sediment and nutrient runoff where possible.

    Jody Webster receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ANZIC IODP.

    Juan Carlos Braga receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Spanish Government.

    Marc Humblet receives funding from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

    Stewart Fallon receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ANZIC IODP.

    Yusuke Yokoyama receives funding from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and Japan Science and Technology Agency.

    – ref. Will surging sea levels kill the Great Barrier Reef? Ancient coral fossils may hold the answer – https://theconversation.com/will-surging-sea-levels-kill-the-great-barrier-reef-ancient-coral-fossils-may-hold-the-answer-257830

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s latest emissions data reveal we still have a giant fossil fuel problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Lovell, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, UNSW Sydney

    According to Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, the latest emissions data show “we are on track to reach our 2030 targets” under the Paris Agreement. In 2024, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions were “27% below 2005 levels”. That’s great news, right?

    Well, yes and no. Australia continues to rely on changes in land use to compensate for emissions released into the atmosphere.

    In other words, Australia’s plants are considered to be taking more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere now than in 2005. Their efforts are captured in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which is the single largest reason for the significant reduction in Australian emissions.

    Without accounting for land use, Australia’s emissions have only decreased 3% since 2005, not 27%.

    If Australia is serious about reducing emissions and tracking towards net zero by 2050, we need to tackle a series of inconvenient truths about fossil fuels. Fossil fuels feed into almost every aspect of our lives, not just cars and power plants. There are substitutes, but they are not easy to source – and they don’t come cheap.

    How fossil fuel exports drive up emissions here and overseas

    Australia is one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters. The coal, oil and natural gas we export is either burnt or combined with our sizeable iron ore exports to produce iron. But the greenhouse gases are released overseas, so they don’t count in Australia’s emissions data.

    This is in line with our international commitments under the Paris agreement. But there is an argument to be made that even though Australia doesn’t burn those exports, we should acknowledge our central role in contributing to global emissions. We may need to account for these in future reporting.

    Australia’s export emissions are likely to be triple that of our domestic emissions. These emissions have been increasing consistently over the last decade.

    But the process of extracting fossil fuels and preparing them for export does show up in Australia’s domestic emission figures, through what’s called “fugitive emissions”. These fugitive emissions are the unavoidable leaks that occur when we pull fossil fuels out of the ground, store, transport and process them.

    In the year to 2024, fugitive emissions accounted for 10.6% of our emissions, which is far greater than emissions from industrial processes (6.8%).

    Disturbingly, recent analysis suggests fugitive emissions could be drastically underreported. Because these emissions are tricky to measure, they are often estimated on an average basis. This means reported values do not accurately reflect true releases.

    When it comes to fugitive and export emissions, Australia is not on track to meet 2030 targets. Recent export-focused fossil project approvals such as the North West Shelf gas project suggest we might even be backtracking.

    Chris Bowen on Insiders, Sunday June 1, 2025 (ABC News)

    The transition to renewables

    Closing dirty old coal-fired power stations and replacing them with renewable energy such as solar and wind power does cut emissions. The reduction in emissions from the electricity sector, down 23.7% on 2005 levels, is good news. But the difference is still small enough that seasonal variations from Tasmania’s hydro power plants can distort the annual figures.

    At least there is a plan in place for the energy transition. Big, slow wheels are in motion.

    Unfortunately the reality is we will need much, much more renewable energy in the future. Up to three times the current capacity of the National Electricity Market will be needed to cover future domestic energy requirements across electricity and other sectors out to 2050.

    Significantly more would be required to generate enough additional green energy to also produce green value-added commodities.

    Australia’s clean energy challenge

    Discussions around transitioning from fossil fuels typically overlook how deeply they are embedded in our everyday lives.

    Not just the fuel we use in our cars, but the roads we drive on. Not just the electricity we use to power our hospitals, but the steel used to build them and the pharmaceuticals we rely on.

    Globally, around 13% of fossil fuels are not burned but used to make these key chemicals. What’s the alternative?

    Clean electricity is the key.

    Electricity can be used to make hydrogen from water through electrolysis. This hydrogen can then replace fossil fuels in manufacturing – making products such as green steel and ammonia for fertiliser.

    When combined with non-fossil sources of carbon, hydrogen can also be turned into renewable fuels, such as sustainable aviation fuel. It can be used to synthesise green versions of petrochemicals used in industrial processes such as ethanol, propylene and ethylene, which are currently sourced from fossil fuels.

    This takes energy. Lots of it. Fortunately Australia has all the ingredients needed for a booming green industry – one that’s much broader than just renewable electricity.

    Currently, it costs more to produce these chemicals without using fossil fuels. That’s why some companies and state governments have been pulling back from their investments in green hydrogen.

    Most people talk about green hydrogen in the context of energy storage or export. But it can also enable the transition away from fossil fuels in other sectors. The technology exists to make these chemicals and products, without the emissions and it’s slowly but steadily moving closer toward price parity.

    If we can nail this switch to fossil-free alternatives to petrochemicals, Australia would be able to add value onshore, rather than exporting raw materials. For example, we could export iron, not iron ore. Methanol or ammonia, not hydrogen. Export the jumper, not the wool.

    Heavy industry driven by renewables?

    On Sunday, Bowen said he found some areas of the 2024 emissions figures “encouraging, like industrial emissions, way down and lower than 2021”.

    Unfortunately, this result was partly due to a decline in manufacturing. Onshore manufacturing capability has been steadily decreasing, despite increased fossil fuel extraction.

    Unless we ramp up green manufacturing – replacing fossil fuel exports with much needed renewable products and fuels – we will continue to bear responsibility, if not direct accountability, for large, exported emissions as well as onshore fugitive emissions.

    And no amount of changes to land use can account for that.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia’s latest emissions data reveal we still have a giant fossil fuel problem – https://theconversation.com/australias-latest-emissions-data-reveal-we-still-have-a-giant-fossil-fuel-problem-257907

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pro-Trump candidate wins Poland’s presidential election – a bad omen for the EU, Ukraine and women

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.

    The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%.

    The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.

    With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.

    This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.

    Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.

    A rising Poland

    For much of the post-second world war era, Poland has had limited European influence.

    This is no longer the case. Poland’s economy has boomed since it joined the EU in 2004. It spends almost 5% of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Poland now has a bigger army than the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan’s.

    Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU’s centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe’s future.

    Impacts on Ukraine

    Poland’s new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia.

    This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined the leaders of Europe’s major powers – France, Germany and the UK – to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

    However, Poland’s unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO.

    Nawrocki was also backed during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security, said at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland:

    Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.

    Trump also hosted Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard US diplomatic protocol to stay out of foreign elections.

    Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland’s geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea.

    I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap.

    This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania, which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It’s seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states.

    Poland’s conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support cutting off weapons to Ukraine.

    However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said Zelensky “treats Poland badly”, echoing the type of language used by Trump himself.

    Poland divided

    The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout of almost 73%.

    There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski.

    Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland’s harsh abortion laws – abortion was effectively banned in Poland under the Law and Justice government – and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples.

    Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them.

    While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country.

    As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki).

    After the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were hoping for a similar result in Poland, as well.

    That, for now, is a pipe dream and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pro-Trump candidate wins Poland’s presidential election – a bad omen for the EU, Ukraine and women – https://theconversation.com/pro-trump-candidate-wins-polands-presidential-election-a-bad-omen-for-the-eu-ukraine-and-women-257617

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is retinol? And will it make my acne flare? 3 experts unpack this trendy skincare ingredient

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurence Orlando, Senior Lecturer, Product Formulation and Development, Analytical Methods, Monash University

    Irina Kvyatkovskaya/Shutterstock

    Retinol skincare products suddenly seem to be everywhere, promising clear, radiant and “youthful” skin.

    But what’s the science behind these claims? And are there any risks?

    You may have also heard retinol can increase your risk of sunburn and even make acne worse.

    For some people, retinol may help reduce the appearance of fine lines. But it won’t be suitable for everyone. Here’s what you need to know.

    What is retinol?

    Retinol is part of a family of chemical compounds called retinoids. These are derived from or related to Vitamin A, a nutrient essential for healthy skin, vision and immune function.

    All retinoids work because enzymes in our skin convert them into their “active” form, retinoic acid.

    You can buy retinol in creams and other topical products over the counter.

    These are often promoted as “anti-ageing” because retinol can help reduce the appearance of fine lines, wrinkles and even out skin tone (for example, sun spots or acne scars).

    It also has an exfoliating effect, meaning it can help unclog pores.

    Stronger retinoid treatments that target acne will require a prescription because they contain retinoic acid, which is regulated as a drug in the United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Australia.

    How is retinol used in skincare?

    One of the most common claims about retinol is that it helps to reduce visible signs of ageing.

    How does this work?

    With age, the skin’s barrier becomes weaker, making it more prone to dryness, injury and irritation.

    Retinol can help counteract this natural thinning by stimulating the proliferation of keratinocytes – cells that form the outer skin layer and protect against damage and water loss.

    Retinol also stimulates the production of collagen (a key protein that creates a scaffolding that keeps skin firm and elastic) and fibroblasts (cells that produce collagen and support skin structure).

    It also increases how fast the skin sheds old cells and replaces them with new ones.

    Over time, these processes help reduce fine lines, fade dark spots and even out skin tone. It can also make skin appear clearer.

    While effective, this doesn’t happen overnight.

    You may have also heard about a “retinol purge” – a temporary flare of acne when you first start using topical retinoids.

    Studies have found the skin may become irritated and acne temporarily worsen in some cases. But more research needs to be done to understand this link.

    The idea of a retinol purge is popular on social media.
    TikTok, CC BY-NC-ND

    So, is retinol safe?

    At typical skincare concentrations (0.1–0.3%), side effects tend to be mild.

    Most people who experience irritation (such as redness, dryness, or peeling) when starting retinol are able to build tolerance over time. This process is often called “retinisation”.

    However, retinol increases the skin’s sensitivity to UV radiation (known as photosensitivity). This heightened reactivity can lead to sunburn, irritation and an increased risk of hyperpigmentation (spots or patches of darker colour).

    For this reason, daily use of broad-spectrum sunscreen (SPF30 or higher) is strongly recommended while using retinol products.

    Who should avoid retinol?

    Teenagers and children generally don’t need retinol unless specifically prescribed by a doctor, for example, for acne treatment.

    People with sensitive skin or conditions such as eczema (dry, itchy and inflamed skin) and rosacea (chronic redness and sensitivity) may find retinol too irritating.

    Using retinol products alongside other skincare treatments, such as alpha-hydroxy acids, can over-exfoliate your skin and damage it.

    Importantly, the active form of retinol, retinoic acid, is teratogenic (meaning it can cause birth defects). Over-the-counter retinol products are also not recommended during pregnancy or breastfeeding.

    Choose and store retinol products wisely

    Since retinol is classified as a cosmetic ingredient, companies are not required to disclose its concentration in their products.

    The European Union is expected to introduce new regulations that will cap the concentration of retinol in cosmetic facial products to 0.3%.

    These are precautionary measures aimed to limit exposure for vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women, given the risk of birth defects.

    It’s therefore recommended to use products that clearly state the retinol concentration is between 0.1% and 0.3%.

    Retinol is also a notoriously unstable molecule that degrades with exposure to air, light or heat.

    Choosing a product with airtight, light-protective packaging will help with potential degradation problems that could lead to inactivity or harm.

    What’s the safest way to try retinol?

    The key is to go low and slow: a pea-sized amount of a low-concentration product (0.1%) once or twice a week, preferably at night (to avoid UV exposure), and then the frequency and concentration can be increased (to a maximum of 0.3%) as the skin adjusts.

    Using a moisturiser after retinol helps to reduce dryness and irritation.

    Wearing sunscreen every day is a must when using retinol to avoid the photosensitivity.

    If you experience persistent redness, burning, or peeling, it’s better to stop using the product and consult your doctor or a dermatologist for personalised advice.

    Laurence Orlando is affiliated with the Australian Society of Cosmetic Chemists.

    Professor Ademi currently serves as a member of the Economics Sub Committee of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee within the Department of Health, Australia which assesses clinical and economic evaluations of medicines submitted for listing on the PBS. She leads the global economics initiative for the Lp(a) International Task Force and Member of Professional Advisory Board of Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH) Australia. Zanfina Ademi receives funding from FH Europe Foundation to understand the population screening for LP(a), globally. Received funding from National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund not in relation to to this work, but work that relates to health economics of prevention and cost-effectiveness.

    Zoe Porter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is retinol? And will it make my acne flare? 3 experts unpack this trendy skincare ingredient – https://theconversation.com/what-is-retinol-and-will-it-make-my-acne-flare-3-experts-unpack-this-trendy-skincare-ingredient-256074

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Decades of searching and a chance discovery: why finding Leadbeater’s possum in NSW is such big news

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Distinguished Professor of Ecology, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

    Until now, Victorians believed their state was the sole home for Leadbeater’s possum, their critically endangered state faunal emblem. This tiny marsupial is clinging to life in a few pockets of mountain ash and snow gum habitat in the Central Highlands of Victoria.

    But a few days ago, seven grainy photos taken by a trail camera in New South Wales revealed something very unexpected: a Leadbeater’s possum hundreds of kilometres away in the wet forests of Kosciuszko National Park.

    For decades, we and other researchers have sought proof this possum existed in these forests. Now we have it. This is a moment of celebration. But it also signals the importance of well-resourced biodiversity surveys in uncovering our most threatened species and large national parks for conserving them.

    While this newly discovered population reduces the risk of extinction, it doesn’t change the decline and risk of extinction of its Victorian relatives – or the steps needed to safeguard them.

    These photos from Kosciuszko National Park are the first proof that Leadbeater’s possum has a NSW population.
    NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, CC BY-NC-ND

    Detected entirely by chance

    In 2024, New South Wales threatened species ecologists Fred Ford and Martin Schulz set about looking for an entirely different species, the endangered smoky mouse. To find it, they set up a wide array of camera traps throughout wet forest areas of Kosciuszko National Park. A year later, they collected them and trawled through millions of photos.

    Among all these images (including of smoky mice), there were seven which stunned them. A camera deployed near Yarrangobilly Caves captured a tiny possum scampering through leaf litter, holding its distinctive club-shaped tail erect. The possum looks around the monitoring site, showing its back and face stripes and heart-shaped face.

    Experts at The Australian National University and Zoos Victoria verified the photos, setting the ecology world abuzz.

    A trail camera near Yarrangobilly Caves in Kosciuszko National Park captured the sighting.
    Destinations Journey/Shutterstock

    A hunch confirmed

    While we are delighted at this remarkable discovery, the detection is not a complete surprise.

    Over three decades ago, this article’s lead author searched for Leadbeater’s possum around Yarrangobilly and many other parts of Kosciuszko National Park, guided by a bioclimatic model suggesting the cool wet forests in Kosciuszko National Park should suit the possum.

    But detection cameras were not available then, and this possum is notoriously hard to spot. It’s tiny, nocturnal and spends its waking hours dashing through the dense understory of some of the world’s tallest forests looking for nectar, sap and insects.

    Species experts from Zoos Victoria and Deakin University have also scouted parts of Kosciuszko National Park over the past decade, identifying potentially promising habitat.

    In 2010 we got confirmation the possum had once occurred in the area, when jaw bones were identified among bones regurgitated by owls on the floor of a nearby cave.

    But other bones from the cave floor date back an estimated 140–200 years. The bones were far from proof of a living population.

    The possum’s existence remained an open question until these photos.

    What does this mean for this possum?

    We don’t know anything about this newly discovered Leadbeater’s possum population in NSW, other than the fact that it exists. Given the distance from the Victorian populations, we suspect that they may be genetically distinct.

    In theory, the existence of a separate population 250 km away from the Victorian populations cuts the risk a single megafire or other catastrophe could push the species to extinction.

    But while welcome, the discovery doesn’t reduce the need to urgently protect surviving Victorian populations, which remain highly threatened by bushfire, climate change, predation by cats, and the legacy of logging and land clearing.

    In Victoria, some populations have dwindled as low as 40 animals and inbreeding is now a concern.

    The possum typically relies on large old trees with hollows where it can breed and den. But these trees have substantially declined in Victoria over the past 150 years. Leadbeater’s possum also needs smaller trees for feeding and movement.

    Surveys across the historical range of the species in Victoria since 2017 have failed to find any other hidden populations. Most surveys have found the habitat highly degraded from logging and fire.

    The discovery won’t alter the possum’s critically endangered status at this stage, nor the ongoing work to support it.

    In welcome news, the NSW Environment Minister announced the possum’s state conservation listing will be fast-tracked.

    Of surveys and parks

    Why did it take so long to find the possum? The main reason: a lack of resources preventing targeted investigations.

    Even basic inventories of species have not been done across many of Australia’s important conservation areas.

    Without well conducted surveys and monitoring, we are left overly reliant on chance detections for critical information. There could be other populations of imperilled species waiting to be rediscovered.

    Properly managing our growing number of threatened species shouldn’t be based on luck. It should be enabled by adequate resources for threatened species recovery teams to discover, map, protect and manage threatened species and their habitat.

    Increasing federal spending on the care of nature to 1% of the budget would go a very long way to closing these gaps.

    Trail cameras, call playback and environmental DNA sampling mean we can now survey large and remote natural areas with relatively little effort for long periods of time.

    Big parks are essential

    Kosciuszko National Park supports much more than Australia’s highest mountains. The huge park spans 690,000 hectares, much of it forest.

    Many of our most imperilled species are hard to detect. Protecting extensive areas of good-quality habitat boosts the survival chances for these species, even if we don’t yet have proof of life.

    With so little high-quality habitat left in Australia, proper protection through new national parks (including in Victoria) is vitally important for the possum and many other species.

    Passive protection isn’t enough either – adequate funding is critical to stop the environmental condition of parks from declining, due to threats like invasive species and extreme fires.

    The world still contains wonder

    These seven photos have given ecologists and nature lovers a real boost to their spirits. As detection techniques improve, what else is out there waiting to be found?

    The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Leadbeater’s possum experts Dan Harley, Arabella Eyre, John Woinarski and Brendan Wintle to this article.

    David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and a Member of Birds Australia.

    Darcy Watchorn works for Zoos Victoria, a not-for-profit zoo-based conservation organisation. He is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia, the Australian Mammal Society, the Society for Conservation Biology, and the Royal Society of Victoria.

    Jaana Dielenberg was employed by the now-ended Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, which conducted research on the Leadbeater’s possum in Victoria. She is a Charles Darwin University Fellow and is employed by the University of Melbourne and the Biodiversity Council.

    – ref. Decades of searching and a chance discovery: why finding Leadbeater’s possum in NSW is such big news – https://theconversation.com/decades-of-searching-and-a-chance-discovery-why-finding-leadbeaters-possum-in-nsw-is-such-big-news-257957

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is there a right way to talk to your baby? A baby brain expert explains ‘parentese’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Herbert, Associate Professor in Developmental Psychology, University of Wollongong

    2p2play/Shutterstock

    You might have seen those heartwarming and often funny viral videos where parents or carers engage in long “talks” with young babies about this and that – usually just fun chit chat of no great consequence.

    They’re often very sweet, and it’s lovely to see the babies’ faces lighting up at the sound of their mother or carer’s voice, or seeming to talk back. In one, the baby appears to reply in an accent strikingly similar to their carer’s:

    So, what’s going on when we chat like this to babies? And is it better to chat to them in the tone and pace we’d use when talking to other adults, or is it OK to talk in a slower, higher pitched, sing-song voice?

    Here’s what the research shows so far.

    Talking to your baby matters

    When you speak with your baby, they are exposed to a rich tapestry of sounds and movements. Can babies make sense of all this input?

    Well, by the time they’re born babies are already highly experienced with their mother’s voice as well as other language sounds they’ve heard while in utero.

    In fact, research shows newborns prefer listening to the language they heard in utero rather than an unfamiliar language.

    They also prefer to hear the story their mother read aloud regularly in the final weeks of pregnancy, compared to a different story – regardless of who is reading it.

    So, although newborns are yet to understand the meaning of these words, they are already tuned in to the importance of language.

    Given the vast exposure that most young babies have with their parent’s voice, passively listening to mum or dad talking is likely to be comforting.

    Time spent together in close physical contact with a highly familiar person producing familiar sounds creates a safe, secure space rich in learning opportunities.

    Babies can learn a lot about conversational style from just listening to and watching the way their parent communicates.

    In fact, babies mimic their parents’ gestures, which can help build their vocabulary over time. The social context influences language skills.

    Time spent in close physical contact with a familiar person producing familiar sounds creates a safe learning space for baby.
    Photo by Josh Willink/Pexels

    What if I run out of things to say?

    If you’re not a fan of monologuing to your baby, don’t worry. They’re not missing out.

    In fact, constant exposure to long monologues by a parent is unlikely to provide the baby with a particularly supportive language environment for developing their understanding or production of words.

    Adult language is extremely complex. It takes a lot of experience with language before a string of sounds like “Yourdadlikeschocolatemoltenlavacake” can be interpreted as individual words linked to people, objects, or concepts.

    One of the most effective ways to support early word recognition and promote attention to the structure of language is for the adult to use a simplified way of speaking to the baby.

    “Parentese” is characterised by the use of higher pitch sounds, elongated vowels, and a slower pace of speaking. Real words are presented in a sing-song, happy voice.

    Parentese draws the baby’s attention to words, and highlights how information in speech chunks together. Babies have been found to prefer to listen to this style of speaking compared to standard speech.

    Time spent talking together in face-to-face interactions best supports language development.
    Tomsickova Tatyana/Shutterstock

    Speaking ‘parentese’

    Parentese is not the same thing as “baby talk”. Baby talk involves the use of nonsense words, and the modelling of incorrect speech sounds and grammar. A baby is not being supported to learn the word “water” if they are repeatedly presented with a nonsense label like “waa waa” for their drink.

    One US study found that when parents were trained to use parentese with their infants at six and ten months, the infants showed an increase in babbling and said more words at 14 months, compared to infants of parents who did not receive this training.

    Other research has shown consistent use of parentese in the early years can help build the complexity of children’s language skills at five years of age.

    Learning to talk is not simply the product of hearing lots of words. In the first weeks of life, infants are already beginning to produce coos and murmurs that both parents and outside observers judge to be intentional vocalisations.

    Try responding to these sounds by imitating them and then interpreting what your baby might be trying to say. This enables them to take a turn as a social partner in the conservation.

    When even very young babies take turns in conversations with an adult, the quality of their vocalisations increases.

    At the youngest ages, time spent talking together in face-to-face interactions best supports language development.

    With age, babies become increasingly interested in the objects in their environment.

    Try responding to your baby’s sounds by imitating them and interpreting what they might be trying to say.
    Halfpoint/Shutterstock

    So, what should I do?

    An effective way to boost language learning from about nine months of age is to notice what’s captured your baby’s attention and talk about that.

    Try labelling and describing what your baby is looking at, playing with, pointing at, or babbling towards.

    Research by colleagues and I found encouraging parents to engage in 15 minutes of this kind of talk a day with their 11-month-olds for a month was effective in promoting vocabulary growth at 15 and 18 months.

    Overall, a rich language environment is created by engaging with your baby in a wide range of activities – via games, songs, and reading aloud – not just having focused conversations.

    Jane Herbert has received funding for these projects: 2012-15: Does promoting parents’ engagement with their infants benefit language development?” Nuffield Foundation (approx. £200,000). D Matthews (PI, University of Sheffield), JS Herbert (University of Sheffield), and J Pine (University of Liverpool). 2011-12: Does promoting parents’ engagement with their infants benefit language development? British Academy Small Research Grant (£7,500). Co-PIs: D Matthews (University of Sheffield), JS Herbert (University of Sheffield), and J Pine (University of Liverpool).

    – ref. Is there a right way to talk to your baby? A baby brain expert explains ‘parentese’ – https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-right-way-to-talk-to-your-baby-a-baby-brain-expert-explains-parentese-257007

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In Bradfield, the election is not yet over. What happens when a seat count is ultra close?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of Queensland

    Election day was over four weeks ago. Yet the outcome in one House of Representatives remains unclear. That is the formerly Liberal Sydney electorate of Bradfield.

    In real time, you can watch the lead tilt between Liberal hopeful, Gisele Kapterian and her teal independent rival, Nicolette Boele. The difference between them has been as small as one vote. As of Monday, that had shifted to 12 votes in the Teal’s favour. Still too close even for Antony Green to call.

    What are the processes for resolving ultra-marginal results? And, more broadly, what accountability is there for problems in campaigning or the running of the election, such as the allegation that voters in one NSW town were misled about how to vote?

    First, to the Bradfield saga. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has until July 9 to declare the result. It then certifies a list of successful candidates, which it “returns”, attached to the original writ the governor-general used to formally begin the election.

    Electoral challenges

    Within 40 days of the writ being returned, any candidate or elector from the seat can “petition” its result. That’s not a petition calling for parliament to handle the matter. It means a formal pleading to the Court of Disputed Returns. For national elections, that means the High Court.

    Remarkably few seats are challenged in Australia. On the happy side, this is because our election agencies are very professional. It’s also a matter of legal principle, arithmetic and resources.

    To succeed in a challenge, you must show the outcome was likely to have been affected, by errors or breaches of the electoral act. With more than 100,000 voting in House of Representatives electorates, even a 0.5% margin means convincing a judge that a 500-vote lead was uncertain.

    The last successful petition nationally was 12 years ago. The AEC admitted some lost ballots meant that the last couple of Western Australian Senate seats could have been different. The whole race had to be re-run.

    In Bradfield, there’s no suggestion of impropriety. So it’s not like the last unsuccessful petition, from 2019, where the Liberals survived claims that misleading how-to-vote posters, directed at Chinese language speakers, might have affected the result.

    Instead, the Bradfield loser would focus on disputed ballots. That would mean, for example, votes where their scrutineers noted some uncertainty. Such as whether a “1” was a “7”. A judge can then give a binding ruling on the intent of the ballot.

    The loser might also try to find evidence of people being wrongly denied a ballot or wrongly issued one. The 40-day period to marshal evidence is strict.

    Besides time limits, a challenger needs lawyers and risks paying the other side’s (and perhaps the AEC’s) legal costs if they lose the hearing.

    Counts and recounts

    Australian election counts are very thorough. This is in contrast to the United Kingdom, where local officials literally rush to be the first to declare, in the wee hours of Friday morning after voting closes at 10pm on a Thursday.

    The figures we see on election night are “indicative” only, drawing on counts in thousands of polling places. Every ballot is transferred to a more central location, for official tallying. Ballots for weaker candidates are reviewed multiple times, as they pass on according to each elector’s preferences.

    When a seat is ultra-close, the law permits a complete recount. AEC policy is to conduct one whenever the result is within 100 votes: in Bradfield, the initial result was a mere eight votes.

    A losing candidate can also request a recount. Teal independent Zoe Daniel did that in her Melbourne seat of Goldstein, where Liberal Tim Wilson finished 260 votes ahead.

    Recounts are resource intensive. So the AEC agreed to review all “1” votes for those candidates, and ballots put in the “informal” or invalid pile. Wilson finally won by 175 votes. A challenge to a margin of that size seems very unlikely.

    Bad form or protest? Informal votes

    What of votes that couldn’t be counted? We call these “informal”. Given turning-out to vote is compulsory – and the requirement to give preferences – Australia has long had a lot of informal ballots.

    Upwards of half tend to be accidental, caused by people misnumbering the ballot or not understanding the rules. The highest rates are in seats with many new citizens from overseas, especially as long ballots of many of candidates is becoming common.

    Votes that cannot be counted are called ‘informal’, and can be a source of dispute in a seat count.
    Shutterstock

    Maybe more than half, however, are deliberate, intended as protests against the system or parties. These include blanks and those scribbled with (sometimes obscene) comments. As faith in parties has declined, informals have risen. Also, due to “automatic enrolment”, more people are enrolled than ever, including some who’d rather not be. Informal ballots this year reached 5.6% of turnout. For perspective, that’s up just 0.4%.

    Voters in the small town of Missabotti in the New South wales seat of Cowper, however, were miffed to find their polling booth had a 45% informal rate. That’s quite an outlier, even for a seat where electors had to rank a dizzying 11 candidates.

    There are allegations a polling official misled some electors, by telling them they only had to number “6” candidates for the House. That is the rule for the Senate, not the House.

    As preferences are not mandatory at NSW state elections, it’s understandable voters may have heeded such advice rather than the actual rule on the ballot. Such an error would be embarrassing for the AEC. But it could hardly ground an election challenge: the Nationals held Cowper by almost 5,500 votes.

    Does that mean there’s no accountability? Anyone affected does not get to vote again. But the AEC is investigating. And after every election, it is grilled by a parliamentary inquiry that the public can contribute to.

    In the end, every vote should be sacred. In reality, elections are huge logistical events and nothing is perfect. But there are courts and inquiries to offer remedies and improve things for the future.

    Graeme Orr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In Bradfield, the election is not yet over. What happens when a seat count is ultra close? – https://theconversation.com/in-bradfield-the-election-is-not-yet-over-what-happens-when-a-seat-count-is-ultra-close-257956

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Claudia Sandberg, Senior Lecturer, Technology in Culture and Society, The University of Melbourne

    As we head into a new month of streaming, here’s a fresh wave of TV ready to challenge, transport and entertain you.

    This month’s picks span genre and geography, from an eerie dystopian Buenos Aires, to a witty, awkward cyborg hero. Reality TV also gets a scandalous twist with the return of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And Deaf President Now! delivers a powerful documentary on a historical milestone for Deaf rights.

    There’s something for every kind of viewer — and every kind of mood.

    The Eternaut

    Netflix

    Argentine sci-fi The Eternaut opens with a group of old friends in Buenos Aires meeting to play the card game truco on a hot summer night – when things suddenly get eerie.

    The power goes out and a poisonous snowfall starts to blanket the city, killing thousands of people instantly. The survivors must get answers, quickly, as they start to grasp the true strength of their invisible enemy.

    Based on Héctor Germán Oesterheld’s 1950s comic of the same name, The Eternaut portrays apocalypse through a deeply local and political lens – and in doing so has struck a chord in Argentina.

    Directed by Bruno Stagnaro and led by Argentine film icon Ricardo Darín, as protagonist Juan Salvo, the series emphasises the power of collective heroism, and subtly critiques the current government’s uncompromising neoliberal approach.

    It also pulses with national pride. Buenos Aires is not glamorized; real neighbourhoods are shown as classic Argentine tango, rock and folk plays in the background. Most importantly, Argentine identity is celebrated through themes of community spirit, grassroots resistance, and ingenuity in times of crisis.

    The Eternaut feels both timely and timeless. Its slogan, “no one survives alone,” resonates for a country that has been long marked by both trauma and resistance efforts.

    Its emotional weight is further deepened by Oesterheld’s legacy, including the tragic disappearance of him and his family members under the military rule of the 1970s.

    With a second season on the way, this series is a powerful ode to Argentina.

    – Claudia Sandberg



    Read more:
    Why Netflix’s The Eternaut is one of the most important shows to come out of Argentina in recent years

    Murderbot

    Apple TV+

    Murderbot, Apple’s adaptation of Martha Wells’ science-fiction novella, All Systems Red (2017) is a satisfying combination of action, sci-fi and comedy. The show centres on a security unit (SecUnit) – an indentured private security cyborg – who secretly cracks the programming of its governing chip, granting itself autonomy.

    Murderbot (Alexander Skarsgård), as it dubs itself, is both horrified and fascinated by humans. It’s far more afraid of eye contact, emotions and direct conversation than any physical danger. It’s also obsessed with mainlining media, particularly the ridiculous soap opera The Rise and Fall of Sanctuary Moon.

    Murderbot is hired, reluctantly, by some hippy scientists from a group of “freehold” planets – ones that exist outside the Corporation Rim – to act as protection on a scientific expedition. It goes quickly awry.

    Wells’ award-winning novella, the first in an equally good series, limits us to the first-person perspective of the sarcastic cyborg. The series expands this frame beautifully, building on the source material’s dry humour to create a world that is both goofy and grounded.

    And while there are serious themes at play, such as the way SecUnits are effectively enslaved, and the violent capitalist dominance of the Corporation Rim, the show is not heavy. Skarsgård offers a pitch-perfect performance of the awkward, anxious robot – its eyes flickering in horror as the scientists try to befriend it.

    The opening minutes of the first episode are clumsy and on-the-nose, but ignore them. This otherwise well-designed and well-directed show cracks along with brisk, highly-entertaining 22-minute episodes.

    – Erin Harrington

    The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, season two

    Disney+

    Season one of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives had us hooked at the end of 2024. Now, the women have returned for an explosive 10-episode second season.

    The reality series follows a group of Mormon women living in Utah. While the title may have you anticipating stories of faith and motherhood, the show is more focused on the personal lives of Mormon mothers who rose to TikTok fame due to scandal and infamy.

    Season one saw the women grapple with balancing traditional Mormon values with their online lives and subsequent businesses (along with the fallout from a “soft-swinging scandal”). Season two further highlights infidelity, jealously and money.

    Old characters are brought back, with finger-pointing ex-husbands and former alienated friends adding to the fray. Police are called, insults are thrown and many of the women delve deeper into their pasts.

    The show flips flops between difficult moments such as processing the death of loved ones and difficult pregnancies, with parties and poorly executed party games. At one point the women play pregnancy roulette (a game no one should recommend), and take pregnancy tests which are anonymously read out to the group. Chaos ensues.

    And after watching, you can search for the TikTok accounts of the stars and watch new drama unfold in real-time – or watch them “correct” and expand on past situations based on their own perspectives – far removed from show’s editors.

    – Edith Jennifer Hill

    Deaf President Now!

    Apple TV+

    Deaf President Now! is a stirring documentary about an iconic student uprising at Gallaudet University, the world’s only Deaf university, in 1988. The film chronicles how Deaf students – tired of being led by hearing leadership – decided to take things in their own hands come the 1988 Gallaudet presidential election.

    With two of the three candidates being Deaf, the appointment of Elisabeth Zinser, a hearing candidate unfamiliar with Deaf culture, sparked outrage. Fuelled by decades of marginalisation, the students barricaded campus gates, burned effigies of Zinser and marched to the Capitol, calling for Deaf leadership in Deaf spaces.

    It worked. The protest forced Zinser’s resignation and ushered in Irving King Jordan, Gallaudet’s first Deaf president.

    The film juxtaposes historic footage with present-day interviews with key leaders of the movement, allowing them to tell their stories their own way. These reflections, delivered in American Sign Language (ASL), underscore how storytelling itself can become an act of resistance for Deaf people.

    At the same time, the documentary wrestles with a paradox. Co-directed by Deaf activist Nyle DiMarco and hearing filmmaker Davis Guggenheim, the film exemplifies how Deaf storytelling still often has hearing involvement, especially when the story is packaged for a mainstream audience.

    Nevertheless, the release of Deaf President Now! couldn’t have been more timely. With disability rights in the United States threatened under Trump, the film is a call to action. It reminds us Deaf culture isn’t just about language: it’s about Pride, self-determination and visibility.

    – Gemma King, Samuel Martin and Sofya Gollan



    Read more:
    Deaf President Now! traces the powerful uprising that led to Deaf rights in the US – now again under threat

    The Surfer

    Stan, from June 15

    In Lorcan Finnegan’s The Surfer, our unnamed protagonist (Nicolas Cage) is returning to his former Australian home from the United States. He is newly divorced, and trying to buy a beachside property to win back his family.

    He takes his teenage son (Finn Little) for a surf near the property, but they are run off by an unfriendly pack of locals.

    Returning alone to the beachside car park to make some calls, he is besieged there by the same gang, and this continues over the next several days. The gang is led by a terrifying middle-aged Andrew Tate-esque influencer, Scally (Julian McMahon), who runs the beach like a combination of a frat bro party and wellness retreat.

    It is impossible to think of an actor other than Cage who could make a character like this so enjoyable to watch. Cage’s distinctively American confidence has no resistance to the terrifying switches of Australian masculinity from friendly to teasing to violent.

    The Surfer is an absolute blast. A lot of the fun is in anticipating each dreadful humiliation – and it somehow turning out worse than you could have expected.

    The Surfer beautifully captures the natural surroundings, stunning views and shimmering heat of Australian coastal summer. At the same time, a confined, semi-urban feature like a beachside car park feels bleak and uninviting.

    As a film setting, it is both a spectacular wide-open vista and stiflingly claustrophobic – a perfect mechanism for The Surfer’s psychological horror.

    – Grace Russell



    Read more:
    Dishevelled, dehydrated delirium: new Aussie film The Surfer, starring Nicolas Cage, is an absolute blast

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story

    Netflix

    The story of serial killers, Fred and Rose West, has been highly narrativised since their shocking crimes were discovered in Gloucester in 1994. The horror of the Wests lies in the juxtaposition of their seemingly ordinary suburban family and what was hidden beneath the foundations of their home.

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story takes us back to the moment of that revelation via previously unheard interview tapes and recordings of the property search – and of Rose while she was kept in a safe house. Family home videos add to the disturbing sense of the couple’s duplicity.

    Interviews with the family of some of the victims emphasise the ongoing pain caused by the Wests, who preyed on vulnerable young women. Meanwhile, Fred’s interviews reinforce his determination to protect his wife: “I trained Rose to do what I wanted. That is why our marriage worked out so well.”

    Many details of the Wests’ true horror, however, are absent: the incredible torture suffered by the victims; Fred and Rose’s own childhoods of abuse and Fred’s earlier assault of young girls, including his own sister; and any reference to the couple’s surviving children and the extraordinary abuse they suffered.

    The horror of this new documentary is present in the couple’s habitual lies, their casual attitude to violence and murder, and their refusal to take responsibility for their many crimes. Yet it only scratches the surface of the Wests’ true horror story.

    – Jessica Gildersleeve

    The Four Seasons

    Netflix

    The Four Seasons follows three 50-something affluent couples as they holiday together over the course of a year.

    Friends since college, the group’s easy camaraderie is upended by Nick’s (Steve Carroll) bombshell decision to leave his seemingly unsuspecting wife, Anne (Kerri Kenney-Silver), after 25 years of marriage. The announcement sends shockwaves through the other couples, testing their own relationships.

    Adapted from Alan Alda’s bittersweet 1981 comedy of the same name, the series preserves the film’s narrative conceit, unfolding over four seasonal mini trips. Episode one opens in full spring at Nick and Anne’s bucolic lake house.

    Given the luxury on display, you’d be forgiven for mistaking The Four Seasons as another entry in the “rich-people-behaving-badly” genre. But while there’s plenty of quips and snarky humour, what unfolds is ultimately much kinder – less a scathing indictment of wealth and more a gentle exploration of the banalities of love and middle age.

    The show’s creators make the most of the expanded running time to humanise the sextet. The open marriage between gregarious Italian Claude (Marco Calvini) and husband Danny (a marvellous Colman Domingo) updates the source material without sliding into tokenism or homonormativity.

    The prickly Type-A Kate (Tina Fey) and peacekeeper Jack (Will Forte) provide the series’ beating heart, in a relationship that feels lived-in and familiar.

    Despite its focus on ageing, loss, mortality and grief, The Four Seasons offers comfort viewing at its finest, best enjoyed with a cup of tea and a loved one who’s known you for decades.

    – Rachel Williamson

    Gemma King receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Claudia Sandberg, Edith Jennifer Hill, Erin Harrington, Grace Russell, Jessica Gildersleeve, Rachel Williamson, Samuel Martin, and Sofya Gollan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June – https://theconversation.com/scandalous-mormons-dystopian-buenos-aires-and-nicolas-cage-down-under-what-to-watch-in-june-257549

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rachael L. Brown, Director of the Centre for Philosophy of the Sciences and Associate Professor of Philosophy, Australian National University

    vchal/shutterstock, The Conversation

    Head lice, fleas and tapeworms have been humanity’s companions throughout our evolutionary history. Yet, the greatest parasite of the modern age is no blood-sucking invertebrate. It is sleek, glass-fronted and addictive by design. Its host? Every human on Earth with a wifi signal.

    Far from being benign tools, smartphones parasitise our time, our attention and our personal information, all in the interests of technology companies and their advertisers.

    In a new article in the Australasian Journal of Philosophy, we argue smartphones pose unique societal risks, which come into sharp focus when viewed through the lens of parasitism.

    What, exactly, is a parasite?

    Evolutionary biologists define a parasite as a species that benefits from a close relationship with another species – its host – while the host bears a cost.

    The head louse, for example, is entirely dependent on our own species for its survival. They only eat human blood, and if they become dislodged from their host, they survive only briefly unless they are fortunate enough to fall onto another human scalp. In return for our blood, head lice give us nothing but a nasty itch; that’s the cost.

    Smartphones have radically changed our lives. From navigating cities to managing chronic health diseases such as diabetes, these pocket-sized bits of tech make our lives easier. So much so that most of us are rarely without them.

    Yet, despite their benefits, many of us are hostage to our phones and slaves to the endless scroll, unable to fully disconnect. Phone users are paying the price with a lack of sleep, weaker offline relationships and mood disorders.

    From mutualism to parasitism

    Not all close species relationships are parasitic. Many organisms that live on or inside us are beneficial.

    Consider the bacteria in the digestive tracts of animals. They can only survive and reproduce in the gut of their host species, feeding on nutrients passing through. But they provide benefits to the host, including improved immunity and better digestion. These win-win associations are called mutualisms.

    The human-smartphone association began as a mutualism. The technology proved useful to humans for staying in touch, navigating via maps and finding useful information.

    Philosophers have spoken of this not in terms of mutualism, but rather as phones being an extension of the human mind, like notebooks, maps and other tools.

    From these benign origins, however, we argue the relationship has become parasitic. Such a change is not uncommon in nature; a mutualist can evolve to become a parasite, or vice versa.

    Smartphones as parasites

    As smartphones have become near-indispensible, some of the most popular apps they offer have come to serve the interests of the app-making companies and their advertisers more faithfully than those of their human users.

    These apps are designed to nudge our behaviour to keep us scrolling, clicking on advertising and simmering in perpetual outrage.

    The data on our scrolling behaviour is used to further that exploitation. Your phone only cares about your personal fitness goals or desire to spend more quality time with your kids to the extent that it uses this information to tailor itself to better capture your attention.

    So, it can be useful to think of users and their phones as akin to hosts and their parasites – at least some of the time.

    While this realisation is interesting in and of itself, the benefit of viewing smartphones through the evolutionary lens of parasitism comes into its own when considering where the relationship might head next – and how we could thwart these high-tech parasites.

    A bluestreak cleaner wrasse at work cleaning the mouth of a goatfish.
    Wayne and Pam Osborn/iNaturalist, CC BY-NC

    Where policing comes in

    On the Great Barrier Reef, bluestreak cleaner wrasse establish “cleaning stations” where larger fish allow the wrasse to feed on dead skin, loose scales and invertebrate parasites living in their gills. This relationship is a classic mutualism – the larger fish lose costly parasites and the cleaner wrasse get fed.

    Sometimes the cleaner wrasse “cheat” and nip their hosts, tipping the scale from mutualism to parasitism. The fish being cleaned may punish offenders by chasing them away or withholding further visits. In this, the reef fish exhibit something evolutionary biologists see as important to keeping mutualisms in balance: policing.

    Could we adequately police our exploitation by smartphones and restore a net-beneficial relationship?

    Evolution shows that two things are key: an ability to detect exploitation when it occurs, and the capacity to respond (typically by withdrawing service to the parasite).

    A difficult battle

    In the case of the smartphone, we can’t easily detect the exploitation. Tech companies that design the various features and algorithms to keep you picking up your phone aren’t advertising this behaviour.

    But even if you’re aware of the exploitative nature of smartphone apps, responding is also more difficult than simply putting the phone down.

    Many of us have become reliant on smartphones for everyday tasks. Rather than remembering facts, we offload the task to digital devices – for some people, this can change their cognition and memory.

    We depend on having a camera for capturing life events or even just recording where we parked the car. This both enhances and limits our memory of events.

    Governments and companies have only further cemented our dependence on our phones, by moving their service delivery online via mobile apps. Once we pick up the phone to access our bank accounts or access government services, we’ve lost the battle.

    How then can users redress the imbalanced relationship with their phones, turning the parasitic relationship back to a mutualistic one?

    Our analysis suggests individual choice can’t reliably get users there. We are individually outgunned by the massive information advantage tech companies hold in the host-parasite arms race.

    The Australian government’s under-age social media ban is an example of the kind of collective action required to limit what these parasites can legally do. To win the battle, we will also need restrictions on app features known to be addictive, and on the collection and sale of our personal data.

    Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Rachael L. Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution – https://theconversation.com/your-smartphone-is-a-parasite-according-to-evolution-256795

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna-Karina Hermkens, Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University

    Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world’s newest country.

    To support this process, it’s offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989.

    It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.

    Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.

    Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to “inner security arc”. The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland’s Port Douglas.

    Given this, the possibility of China’s increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.

    Australia’s tangled history in Bougainville

    Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000. It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.

    Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).

    Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence. This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.

    The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

    Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me’ekamui, or the “Holy Land” it once was.

    Australia supported the PNG government’s efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters.

    After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG’s territorial integrity.

    In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum. Australia’s response, however, was ambiguous.

    Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027.

    As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

    We are moving forward. And it’s the people’s vision: independence. I’m saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.

    Major issues to overcome

    Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

    The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

    But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

    Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

    Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict, as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

    Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

    More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance.

    The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it’s seeking foreign investors.

    Open for business

    Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the years.

    Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville’s independence. Bougainville is showing interest.

    Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is “aligning perfectly with Bougainville’s nationhood aspirations”.

    The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States, offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.

    Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.

    Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?

    There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining. One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands’ booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.

    The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:

    […]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that’s building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.

    What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.

    Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville’s journey towards independence.

    – ref. Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way – https://theconversation.com/bougainville-wants-independence-chinas-support-for-a-controversial-mine-could-pave-the-way-254320

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna-Karina Hermkens, Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University

    Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world’s newest country.

    To support this process, it’s offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989.

    It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.

    Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.

    Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to “inner security arc”. The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland’s Port Douglas.

    Given this, the possibility of China’s increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.

    Australia’s tangled history in Bougainville

    Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000. It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.

    Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).

    Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence. This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.

    The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

    Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me’ekamui, or the “Holy Land” it once was.

    Australia supported the PNG government’s efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters.

    After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG’s territorial integrity.

    In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum. Australia’s response, however, was ambiguous.

    Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027.

    As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

    We are moving forward. And it’s the people’s vision: independence. I’m saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.

    Major issues to overcome

    Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

    The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

    But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

    Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

    Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict, as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

    Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

    More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance.

    The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it’s seeking foreign investors.

    Open for business

    Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the years.

    Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville’s independence. Bougainville is showing interest.

    Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is “aligning perfectly with Bougainville’s nationhood aspirations”.

    The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States, offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.

    Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.

    Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?

    There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining. One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands’ booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.

    The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:

    […]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that’s building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.

    What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.

    Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville’s journey towards independence.

    – ref. Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way – https://theconversation.com/bougainville-wants-independence-chinas-support-for-a-controversial-mine-could-pave-the-way-254320

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is populism?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Moffitt, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Monash University

    In 2017, in the wake of Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election win, populism was named the “word of the year” by Cambridge University Press.

    Almost a decade later, we might have thought the term’s popularity would have faded.

    But with Trump back in power in the United States, the Reform Party polling very well in the United Kingdom, and Argentinian president Javier Milei wielding his chainsaw at public events, populism is very much still with us.

    But what is populism? Is it a left or right phenomenon? And is it here to stay?

    What is populism?

    Put simply, populism is a political phenomenon that revolves around the central divide between “the people” and “the elite”.

    Although there is agreement on this divide, academics tend to disagree on two things when it comes to populism.

    The first is what kind of phenomenon it is. Is populism an ideology (that is, a belief system)? A strategy? Or is it a kind of performative political style?

    Secondly, experts disagree on whether populism is a threat or corrective to democracy. Some think it can be both.

    Populism: left or right?

    Much of the confusion about populism stems from the fact that it can appear across the ideological spectrum.

    This is because “the people” and “the elite” are flexible terms, and populists can characterise them in very different ways.

    Right-wing populists tend to characterise “the people” in socio-cultural terms, and often combine their populism with nativism.

    Think for instance, of how Trump’s “people” are coded as White Americans.

    Or, how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi evokes Hindu nationalism in his definition of “the people”.

    Other prominent right-wing populist leaders include the likes of Viktor Orban of Hungary, Nigel Farage of the United Kingdom, Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, and Australia’s Pauline Hanson.

    Left-wing populists, meanwhile, tend to characterise “the people” in socio-economic terms. They often combine their populism with calls for economic redistribution or shifts in power.

    Examples include Latin American populist leaders like Evo Morales of Bolivia and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, who sought to bring the poor into their conception of “the people”.

    In the US, Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential primary campaigns put the working class and people in precarious work at the heart of his “people”.

    Other examples of left-wing populism include the Podemos and Syriza parties in Spain and Greece respectively.

    This also means the way populists tend to define “the elite” is quite different.

    Right-wing populist targets often include:

    • government and policy elites (think of Trump’s “drain the swamp”)
    • cultural elites (Trump’s attacks on media as “fake news”)
    • academics (attacks on the “ivory tower”) and
    • transnational bodies (such as attacks on the United Nations).

    These groups are connected in right-wing populist discourse and purported to be undermining “the people’s” livelihood by abetting increased immigration or the destruction of “traditional values”.

    Left-wing populists tend to target business and power elites, who they see as fleecing “the people” economically and keeping them from expressing their popular power (think of Occupy Wall Street’s divide between the 99% and the 1%).

    Populists also tend to have a suspicion of transnational organisations. But while right-wing populists tend to focus on the likes of the United Nations and World Health Organisation, left-wing populists are more suspicious of business transnationals such as the World Trade Organization or World Economic Forum.

    Is populism here to stay?

    After every major election where a populist leader or party succeeds, there is inevitably talk of a “populist earthquake”, “populist wave” or “populist tsunami”.

    These metaphors suggest populism has come out of nowhere, and is causing a major and unexpected shock to the system.

    But that’s simply not the case.

    If anything, the story of 21st century politics has been one in which populism has become “normalised” and “mainstreamed”.

    Populists are no longer merely “challenger” parties nor minor parties.

    They increasingly are among the top three parties in their respective countries (particularly in Europe), and have won government in places from the US to India to the Netherlands to Italy to Greece.

    This success has seen them steadily viewed as viable and “normal” political players.

    Meanwhile, mainstream parties and leaders have increasingly adopted elements of populists’ discourse, platforms and political styles, as a way to compete with populists.

    This, ironically, has had the effect of legitimising populists in many countries; it makes their policies and discourse look more “acceptable”.

    It’s important to be cynical about any pundit crowing about the “death” of populism – or, on the flipside, the idea it has come out of nowhere.

    Populism is here to stay. Acknowledging that can help us better understand its appeal, which in turn, can provide hints about how to best deal with it.

    Benjamin Moffitt receives or has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.

    – ref. What is populism? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-populism-249369

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As the NRL edges into Darwin, does the AFL need to be more proactive in the NT?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney

    The Northern Territory government recently announced the Dolphins, the NRL’s newest team that entered the league in 2023, would play a home game at TIO Stadium in Darwin every year from 2026 to 2028.

    The Dolphins deal replaces a 12-year partnership between the NT and the Parramatta Eels, which ran from 2014 to 2025.

    The NRL announcement came soon after the AFL’s Gold Coast played two “home” games at TIO Stadium during Sir Doug Nicholls Round, which is dedicated to Indigenous players, cultures and communities.

    Looking ahead, Darwin will be the only capital city in Australia without an AFL or NRL team when the Tasmania Devils join the AFL in 2028 as its 19th team. The NT is, however, pushing hard to join as the AFL’s 20th club.

    So, as the NRL dips its toes into the NT, will the AFL look to defend its territory?

    The case for an AFL team in the NT

    The “footy case” for a standalone NT team is strong: the Territory has produced rich reservoirs of football talent from Alice Springs to the Arafura Sea, with stars such as Michael Long, the Rioli family (Maurice Snr, Cyril, Dean, Daniel, Willie and Maurice Jnr) and Andrew McLeod dominating games and delighting fans.

    According to James Coventry’s book Footballistics, the NT shines in terms of participation rates. Only about 250,000 people live in the Top End, but more than 13% participate in Aussie rules programs compared to 8% in Western Australia, 6% in South Australia and 2% in Victoria. In terms of girls and women, the Territory boasts the highest Aussie rules participation rate in the country.

    The NT has traditionally been a strong source of AFL draftees, producing more per capita than any other state or territory except for Victoria and South Australia. Around 10% of AFL players are Indigenous, with many emanating from the NT.

    But in recent years, Indigenous numbers have declined. In 2024, 70 men and 21 women players identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander – a decrease of 17% since 2020.



    Read more:
    It’s clear footy has an Indigenous participation problem, and the AFL draft is only part of the solution

    An NT team would surely be a boon for Indigenous players who want to stay local.

    In the NRL, about 12% of players identify as Indigenous, although only a handful come from the NT.

    How would an AFL team look?

    The Territory AFL Team Taskforce, in its strategic business case for the 20th licence, has examined a number of options.

    These include current AFL clubs playing more matches in Darwin and Alice Springs, a relocated club, or a Darwin-based standalone NT team that also plays in Alice Springs.

    The taskforce has also considered a northern Australia team (Darwin based but also playing in Cairns), although that is a less likely option at this stage given it would be hard to have two home grounds so far apart, along with the need to play some games in Alice Springs.

    The NT plan also includes an AFLW team and possibly a reserves team in second tier competitions such as the Victorian Football League (VFL) or maybe even the South Australian National Football League (SANFL) or West Australian Football League (WAFL).

    Of course, that’s the footy case. The economic case is much more complex.

    Dollars and cents

    A standalone NT team would need significant financial assistance from the AFL and governments to be successful.

    The AFL distributes its profits among its clubs, with smaller teams receiving a greater share as part of its equalisation aims.

    Even with a significant AFL contribution of A$7.83 million per year, the taskforce forecasted an NT club would need the federal and NT government to fund an operation funding gap of $18.89 million annually.

    This would include a new or upgraded stadium, which would “anchor the opportunity to bid for a 20th licence,” according to AFL NT chairman Sean Bowden.

    The taskforce noted:

    The economic benefit to the NT could be as much as $559 million if the new club was provided with a new stadium. An AFL team would create 160 full-time jobs, bring game day activation of the economy and add $116 million a year in economic output to the Territory economy.

    Other considerations

    Hand in hand with the economic benefits come the social impacts.

    The NT has serious problems with diabetes and associated health problems, education and imprisonment.

    The taskforce has committed to develop pathways for elite AFL and AFLW footballers and also create a safety net of social programs for all Territorians under the umbrella of the NT AFL team.

    The taskforce stated having elite pro sports teams could inspire Indigenous children, particularly in remote communities.

    A big decision to make

    As the NRL continues to make its presence felt in the NT, the AFL faces a big decision as the Territory pushes for a standalone team.

    The prospect of Australia’s only indigenous game boasting teams from Tasmania to the Top End, and from the east coast to the west coast in every capital city, would no doubt warm the hearts of all football supporters.

    It might also be too much for the AFL, as custodians of the great Australian game, to resist.

    Tim Harcourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As the NRL edges into Darwin, does the AFL need to be more proactive in the NT? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-nrl-edges-into-darwin-does-the-afl-need-to-be-more-proactive-in-the-nt-257809

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael L. Brown, Director of the Centre for Philosophy of the Sciences and Associate Professor of Philosophy, Australian National University

    vchal/shutterstock, The Conversation

    Head lice, fleas and tapeworms have been humanity’s companions throughout our evolutionary history. Yet, the greatest parasite of the modern age is no blood-sucking invertebrate. It is sleek, glass-fronted and addictive by design. Its host? Every human on Earth with a wifi signal.

    Far from being benign tools, smartphones parasitise our time, our attention and our personal information, all in the interests of technology companies and their advertisers.

    In a new article in the Australasian Journal of Philosophy, we argue smartphones pose unique societal risks, which come into sharp focus when viewed through the lens of parasitism.

    What, exactly, is a parasite?

    Evolutionary biologists define a parasite as a species that benefits from a close relationship with another species – its host – while the host bears a cost.

    The head louse, for example, is entirely dependent on our own species for its survival. They only eat human blood, and if they become dislodged from their host, they survive only briefly unless they are fortunate enough to fall onto another human scalp. In return for our blood, head lice give us nothing but a nasty itch; that’s the cost.

    Smartphones have radically changed our lives. From navigating cities to managing chronic health diseases such as diabetes, these pocket-sized bits of tech make our lives easier. So much so that most of us are rarely without them.

    Yet, despite their benefits, many of us are hostage to our phones and slaves to the endless scroll, unable to fully disconnect. Phone users are paying the price with a lack of sleep, weaker offline relationships and mood disorders.

    From mutualism to parasitism

    Not all close species relationships are parasitic. Many organisms that live on or inside us are beneficial.

    Consider the bacteria in the digestive tracts of animals. They can only survive and reproduce in the gut of their host species, feeding on nutrients passing through. But they provide benefits to the host, including improved immunity and better digestion. These win-win associations are called mutualisms.

    The human-smartphone association began as a mutualism. The technology proved useful to humans for staying in touch, navigating via maps and finding useful information.

    Philosophers have spoken of this not in terms of mutualism, but rather as phones being an extension of the human mind, like notebooks, maps and other tools.

    From these benign origins, however, we argue the relationship has become parasitic. Such a change is not uncommon in nature; a mutualist can evolve to become a parasite, or vice versa.

    Smartphones as parasites

    As smartphones have become near-indispensible, some of the most popular apps they offer have come to serve the interests of the app-making companies and their advertisers more faithfully than those of their human users.

    These apps are designed to nudge our behaviour to keep us scrolling, clicking on advertising and simmering in perpetual outrage.

    The data on our scrolling behaviour is used to further that exploitation. Your phone only cares about your personal fitness goals or desire to spend more quality time with your kids to the extent that it uses this information to tailor itself to better capture your attention.

    So, it can be useful to think of users and their phones as akin to hosts and their parasites – at least some of the time.

    While this realisation is interesting in and of itself, the benefit of viewing smartphones through the evolutionary lens of parasitism comes into its own when considering where the relationship might head next – and how we could thwart these high-tech parasites.

    A bluestreak cleaner wrasse at work cleaning the mouth of a goatfish.
    Wayne and Pam Osborn/iNaturalist, CC BY-NC

    Where policing comes in

    On the Great Barrier Reef, bluestreak cleaner wrasse establish “cleaning stations” where larger fish allow the wrasse to feed on dead skin, loose scales and invertebrate parasites living in their gills. This relationship is a classic mutualism – the larger fish lose costly parasites and the cleaner wrasse get fed.

    Sometimes the cleaner wrasse “cheat” and nip their hosts, tipping the scale from mutualism to parasitism. The fish being cleaned may punish offenders by chasing them away or withholding further visits. In this, the reef fish exhibit something evolutionary biologists see as important to keeping mutualisms in balance: policing.

    Could we adequately police our exploitation by smartphones and restore a net-beneficial relationship?

    Evolution shows that two things are key: an ability to detect exploitation when it occurs, and the capacity to respond (typically by withdrawing service to the parasite).

    A difficult battle

    In the case of the smartphone, we can’t easily detect the exploitation. Tech companies that design the various features and algorithms to keep you picking up your phone aren’t advertising this behaviour.

    But even if you’re aware of the exploitative nature of smartphone apps, responding is also more difficult than simply putting the phone down.

    Many of us have become reliant on smartphones for everyday tasks. Rather than remembering facts, we offload the task to digital devices – for some people, this can change their cognition and memory.

    We depend on having a camera for capturing life events or even just recording where we parked the car. This both enhances and limits our memory of events.

    Governments and companies have only further cemented our dependence on our phones, by moving their service delivery online via mobile apps. Once we pick up the phone to access our bank accounts or access government services, we’ve lost the battle.

    How then can users redress the imbalanced relationship with their phones, turning the parasitic relationship back to a mutualistic one?

    Our analysis suggests individual choice can’t reliably get users there. We are individually outgunned by the massive information advantage tech companies hold in the host-parasite arms race.

    The Australian government’s under-age social media ban is an example of the kind of collective action required to limit what these parasites can legally do. To win the battle, we will also need restrictions on app features known to be addictive, and on the collection and sale of our personal data.

    Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Rachael L. Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution – https://theconversation.com/your-smartphone-is-a-parasite-according-to-evolution-256795

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claudia Sandberg, Senior Lecturer, Technology in Culture and Society, The University of Melbourne

    As we head into a new month of streaming, here’s a fresh wave of TV ready to challenge, transport and entertain you.

    This month’s picks span genre and geography, from an eerie dystopian Buenos Aires, to a witty, awkward cyborg hero. Reality TV also gets a scandalous twist with the return of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And Deaf President Now! delivers a powerful documentary on a historical milestone for Deaf rights.

    There’s something for every kind of viewer — and every kind of mood.

    The Eternaut

    Netflix

    Argentine sci-fi The Eternaut opens with a group of old friends in Buenos Aires meeting to play the card game truco on a hot summer night – when things suddenly get eerie.

    The power goes out and a poisonous snowfall starts to blanket the city, killing thousands of people instantly. The survivors must get answers, quickly, as they start to grasp the true strength of their invisible enemy.

    Based on Héctor Germán Oesterheld’s 1950s comic of the same name, The Eternaut portrays apocalypse through a deeply local and political lens – and in doing so has struck a chord in Argentina.

    Directed by Bruno Stagnaro and led by Argentine film icon Ricardo Darín, as protagonist Juan Salvo, the series emphasises the power of collective heroism, and subtly critiques the current government’s uncompromising neoliberal approach.

    It also pulses with national pride. Buenos Aires is not glamorized; real neighbourhoods are shown as classic Argentine tango, rock and folk plays in the background. Most importantly, Argentine identity is celebrated through themes of community spirit, grassroots resistance, and ingenuity in times of crisis.

    The Eternaut feels both timely and timeless. Its slogan, “no one survives alone,” resonates for a country that has been long marked by both trauma and resistance efforts.

    Its emotional weight is further deepened by Oesterheld’s legacy, including the tragic disappearance of him and his family members under the military rule of the 1970s.

    With a second season on the way, this series is a powerful ode to Argentina.

    – Claudia Sandberg



    Read more:
    Why Netflix’s The Eternaut is one of the most important shows to come out of Argentina in recent years

    Murderbot

    Apple TV+

    Murderbot, Apple’s adaptation of Martha Wells’ science-fiction novella, All Systems Red (2017) is a satisfying combination of action, sci-fi and comedy. The show centres on a security unit (SecUnit) – an indentured private security cyborg – who secretly cracks the programming of its governing chip, granting itself autonomy.

    Murderbot (Alexander Skarsgård), as it dubs itself, is both horrified and fascinated by humans. It’s far more afraid of eye contact, emotions and direct conversation than any physical danger. It’s also obsessed with mainlining media, particularly the ridiculous soap opera The Rise and Fall of Sanctuary Moon.

    Murderbot is hired, reluctantly, by some hippy scientists from a group of “freehold” planets – ones that exist outside the Corporation Rim – to act as protection on a scientific expedition. It goes quickly awry.

    Wells’ award-winning novella, the first in an equally good series, limits us to the first-person perspective of the sarcastic cyborg. The series expands this frame beautifully, building on the source material’s dry humour to create a world that is both goofy and grounded.

    And while there are serious themes at play, such as the way SecUnits are effectively enslaved, and the violent capitalist dominance of the Corporation Rim, the show is not heavy. Skarsgård offers a pitch-perfect performance of the awkward, anxious robot – its eyes flickering in horror as the scientists try to befriend it.

    The opening minutes of the first episode are clumsy and on-the-nose, but ignore them. This otherwise well-designed and well-directed show cracks along with brisk, highly-entertaining 22-minute episodes.

    – Erin Harrington

    The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, season two

    Disney+

    Season one of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives had us hooked at the end of 2024. Now, the women have returned for an explosive 10-episode second season.

    The reality series follows a group of Mormon women living in Utah. While the title may have you anticipating stories of faith and motherhood, the show is more focused on the personal lives of Mormon mothers who rose to TikTok fame due to scandal and infamy.

    Season one saw the women grapple with balancing traditional Mormon values with their online lives and subsequent businesses (along with the fallout from a “soft-swinging scandal”). Season two further highlights infidelity, jealously and money.

    Old characters are brought back, with finger-pointing ex-husbands and former alienated friends adding to the fray. Police are called, insults are thrown and many of the women delve deeper into their pasts.

    The show flips flops between difficult moments such as processing the death of loved ones and difficult pregnancies, with parties and poorly executed party games. At one point the women play pregnancy roulette (a game no one should recommend), and take pregnancy tests which are anonymously read out to the group. Chaos ensues.

    And after watching, you can search for the TikTok accounts of the stars and watch new drama unfold in real-time – or watch them “correct” and expand on past situations based on their own perspectives – far removed from show’s editors.

    – Edith Jennifer Hill

    Deaf President Now!

    Apple TV+

    Deaf President Now! is a stirring documentary about an iconic student uprising at Gallaudet University, the world’s only Deaf university, in 1988. The film chronicles how Deaf students – tired of being led by hearing leadership – decided to take things in their own hands come the 1988 Gallaudet presidential election.

    With two of the three candidates being Deaf, the appointment of Elisabeth Zinser, a hearing candidate unfamiliar with Deaf culture, sparked outrage. Fuelled by decades of marginalisation, the students barricaded campus gates, burned effigies of Zinser and marched to the Capitol, calling for Deaf leadership in Deaf spaces.

    It worked. The protest forced Zinser’s resignation and ushered in Irving King Jordan, Gallaudet’s first Deaf president.

    The film juxtaposes historic footage with present-day interviews with key leaders of the movement, allowing them to tell their stories their own way. These reflections, delivered in American Sign Language (ASL), underscore how storytelling itself can become an act of resistance for Deaf people.

    At the same time, the documentary wrestles with a paradox. Co-directed by Deaf activist Nyle DiMarco and hearing filmmaker Davis Guggenheim, the film exemplifies how Deaf storytelling still often has hearing involvement, especially when the story is packaged for a mainstream audience.

    Nevertheless, the release of Deaf President Now! couldn’t have been more timely. With disability rights in the United States threatened under Trump, the film is a call to action. It reminds us Deaf culture isn’t just about language: it’s about Pride, self-determination and visibility.

    – Gemma King, Samuel Martin and Sofya Gollan



    Read more:
    Deaf President Now! traces the powerful uprising that led to Deaf rights in the US – now again under threat

    The Surfer

    Stan, from June 15

    In Lorcan Finnegan’s The Surfer, our unnamed protagonist (Nicolas Cage) is returning to his former Australian home from the United States. He is newly divorced, and trying to buy a beachside property to win back his family.

    He takes his teenage son (Finn Little) for a surf near the property, but they are run off by an unfriendly pack of locals.

    Returning alone to the beachside car park to make some calls, he is besieged there by the same gang, and this continues over the next several days. The gang is led by a terrifying middle-aged Andrew Tate-esque influencer, Scally (Julian McMahon), who runs the beach like a combination of a frat bro party and wellness retreat.

    It is impossible to think of an actor other than Cage who could make a character like this so enjoyable to watch. Cage’s distinctively American confidence has no resistance to the terrifying switches of Australian masculinity from friendly to teasing to violent.

    The Surfer is an absolute blast. A lot of the fun is in anticipating each dreadful humiliation – and it somehow turning out worse than you could have expected.

    The Surfer beautifully captures the natural surroundings, stunning views and shimmering heat of Australian coastal summer. At the same time, a confined, semi-urban feature like a beachside car park feels bleak and uninviting.

    As a film setting, it is both a spectacular wide-open vista and stiflingly claustrophobic – a perfect mechanism for The Surfer’s psychological horror.

    – Grace Russell



    Read more:
    Dishevelled, dehydrated delirium: new Aussie film The Surfer, starring Nicolas Cage, is an absolute blast

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story

    Netflix

    The story of serial killers, Fred and Rose West, has been highly narrativised since their shocking crimes were discovered in Gloucester in 1994. The horror of the Wests lies in the juxtaposition of their seemingly ordinary suburban family and what was hidden beneath the foundations of their home.

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story takes us back to the moment of that revelation via previously unheard interview tapes and recordings of the property search – and of Rose while she was kept in a safe house. Family home videos add to the disturbing sense of the couple’s duplicity.

    Interviews with the family of some of the victims emphasise the ongoing pain caused by the Wests, who preyed on vulnerable young women. Meanwhile, Fred’s interviews reinforce his determination to protect his wife: “I trained Rose to do what I wanted. That is why our marriage worked out so well.”

    Many details of the Wests’ true horror, however, are absent: the incredible torture suffered by the victims; Fred and Rose’s own childhoods of abuse and Fred’s earlier assault of young girls, including his own sister; and any reference to the couple’s surviving children and the extraordinary abuse they suffered.

    The horror of this new documentary is present in the couple’s habitual lies, their casual attitude to violence and murder, and their refusal to take responsibility for their many crimes. Yet it only scratches the surface of the Wests’ true horror story.

    – Jessica Gildersleeve

    The Four Seasons

    Netflix

    The Four Seasons follows three 50-something affluent couples as they holiday together over the course of a year.

    Friends since college, the group’s easy camaraderie is upended by Nick’s (Steve Carroll) bombshell decision to leave his seemingly unsuspecting wife, Anne (Kerri Kenney-Silver), after 25 years of marriage. The announcement sends shockwaves through the other couples, testing their own relationships.

    Adapted from Alan Alda’s bittersweet 1981 comedy of the same name, the series preserves the film’s narrative conceit, unfolding over four seasonal mini trips. Episode one opens in full spring at Nick and Anne’s bucolic lake house.

    Given the luxury on display, you’d be forgiven for mistaking The Four Seasons as another entry in the “rich-people-behaving-badly” genre. But while there’s plenty of quips and snarky humour, what unfolds is ultimately much kinder – less a scathing indictment of wealth and more a gentle exploration of the banalities of love and middle age.

    The show’s creators make the most of the expanded running time to humanise the sextet. The open marriage between gregarious Italian Claude (Marco Calvini) and husband Danny (a marvellous Colman Domingo) updates the source material without sliding into tokenism or homonormativity.

    The prickly Type-A Kate (Tina Fey) and peacekeeper Jack (Will Forte) provide the series’ beating heart, in a relationship that feels lived-in and familiar.

    Despite its focus on ageing, loss, mortality and grief, The Four Seasons offers comfort viewing at its finest, best enjoyed with a cup of tea and a loved one who’s known you for decades.

    – Rachel Williamson

    Gemma King receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Claudia Sandberg, Edith Jennifer Hill, Erin Harrington, Grace Russell, Jessica Gildersleeve, Rachel Williamson, Samuel Martin, and Sofya Gollan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June – https://theconversation.com/scandalous-mormons-dystopian-buenos-aires-and-nicolas-cage-down-under-what-to-watch-in-june-257549

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With interest rates on the way down, could house prices boom? Here’s what research suggests

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

    Jenny Evans/Stringer/Getty

    With the Reserve Bank of Australia easing monetary policy, interest rates are on the way down.

    Already this year, mortgage pre-approvals had begun to rise, suggesting many aspiring home buyers are excited by the prospect of cheaper home loans.

    With further cuts expected before the end of the year, some economists are predicting we could be on the cusp of another house price boom. Lower interest rates enable people to borrow more and potentially spend more on homes, bidding up prices.

    So, how might the Reserve Bank’s actions affect home buying behaviour and the housing market more broadly? Research offers us some clues.

    How rates affect prices

    Research shows that when a central bank lowers its benchmark interest rate, mortgage interest rates usually follow suit.

    We saw this following the Reserve Bank’s May decision to cut rates. Australia’s big four banks immediately announced similar reductions in rates for new and existing borrowers.

    Lower rates reduce the cost of servicing a loan. This is a big deal for Australian home buyers, whose mortgages can be very large.

    With the average house price in Australia now hitting about $1 million, an 80% loan saddles the typical home buyer with $800,000 in debt.

    Back in March, the average interest rate on new mortgages was 6%. For the average million-dollar house, this implies a monthly repayment of around $4,796, using the standard formula for amortising loans.

    After the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, this implies a new monthly repayment of $4,669 – $127 less. That’s a small, but surely welcome, relief for mortgage holders.

    Combined with the Reserve Bank’s prior rate cut in February, such borrowers are now saving more than $250 a month relative to the start of the year.

    Everyone can borrow more

    Lower rates can also improve the borrowing capacity of new home buyers.

    Before a bank issues a new mortgage, it weighs the ability of a borrower to service the loan. It does this by considering the amount of income they’ll have left over after meeting typical expenses.

    This is known as a borrower’s “net income surplus”, and the proportion of this that is used to service a loan is known as the “net surplus ratio”.

    The maximum ratio is capped at 90%, but the typical mortgage is lent against a ratio of less than 70%.

    If a household earns $100,000 per year and allocates 25% to expenses, it can afford $4,375 in monthly mortgage repayments at a 70% net surplus ratio.

    Given the previous interest rate of 6%, this maximum monthly repayment implies the household can afford to borrow $680,000. But after a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, this household can now afford a $695,000 home loan.

    And following the 0.50 percentage points of cuts we’ve seen since January, this household’s borrowing capacity is up by $30,000.

    Pulling up the ladder

    For an individual home buyer, this extra borrowing may be enough to secure that dream home. But the rate cut affects everyone at the same time, increasing the borrowing capacity of home buyers all over the country.

    All of this extra mortgage credit feeds housing demand, which is likely to pour more fuel into an already overheated market.

    Indeed, recent research indicates that a 0.25 percentage point cut in the cash rate will likely lead to a 1.5–2% increase in average house prices over the following one to two years.

    That’s an extra $20,000 on the current $1 million average home value.

    Research also suggests the impact of interest rates across local housing markets may be strongest where housing supply is tightest and houses are already more expensive.

    Mortgages get bigger

    While lower rates reduce the cost of a given mortgage, the average mortgage size needs to grow to keep up with higher prices.

    Recall that the monthly payment associated with an 80% loan on a million-dollar home at 6% interest was $4,796. If the interest rate falls by 0.25 percentage points but house prices rise by 2%, the new monthly payment is little changed, at $4,762.

    On top of this, the 20% down payment on that new home will now have increased – by $4,000.

    Rate cuts increase borrowing power, but this can put upward pressure on house prices.
    myphotobank.com.au/Shutterstock

    Is there hope for first home buyers?

    Despite the initial excitement of lower rates, aspiring home buyers may be disappointed to see the price of their dream home climb further out of reach. Some may end up no better off than they had been previously.

    Others might try to snap up a home before lower rates are completely priced in – motivated by a fear-of-missing-out (FOMO). Research suggests it can take a year or more before house prices peak following a rate change.

    And others still may decide to keep renting for the time being. Fortunately for them, recent research shows that changes in interest rates do not materially affect the rents that landlords charge their tenants.

    Finally, one option is holding savings in the stock market while they wait, perhaps diversified via exchange-traded funds, as these assets usually rise in value following an interest rate cut.

    It’s never a good idea to panic. It’s always important to think through your options before diving into the market. And remember, our discussion here is only for general information and is not intended to be financial advice. All investments carry risk.

    James Graham has received research funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is a member of Sydney YIMBY.

    – ref. With interest rates on the way down, could house prices boom? Here’s what research suggests – https://theconversation.com/with-interest-rates-on-the-way-down-could-house-prices-boom-heres-what-research-suggests-257724

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: These 5 roadblocks are standing in the way of energy-efficient homes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jaime Comber, Senior Research Consultant in Energy Futures, University of Technology Sydney

    Westend61, GettyImages

    We all want homes that keep us warm in winter and cool in summer, without breaking the bank. However, Australian homes built before 2003 have a low average energy rating of 1.8 stars out of 10. This means they’re often uncomfortable to live in and expensive to run.

    There’s a strong case for a “renovation wave” of home energy upgrades across Australia. Reducing the use of fossil gas and improving the energy efficiency of existing housing by nearly 50% is also central to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

    Energy-saving upgrades such as solar panels, batteries, insulation, draught-proofing and hot water heat pumps also reduce the cost of energy bills. So while there’s an upfront cost, upgrades can reduce household expenses in the long run.

    We wanted to find out what’s holding people back from getting energy-saving upgrades. We surveyed 100 Australian households and interviewed 19 people about their experiences. Our new research revealed five major barriers that stop these upgrades from being accessible to most households. Suppliers, governments and community organisations can all help overcome these barriers.

    Embarking on home energy upgrades can be an emotional rollercoaster ride.
    RACE for 2030

    1. Information about upgrades is confusing and overwhelming

    Households told us the amount of information out there about energy saving upgrades is overwhelming and sometimes conflicting. There are many different types of upgrades and product choices, making it challenging to identify which options provide the best value and what to do first. People found it difficult to know what information and which suppliers to trust.

    Households need clear information from a trusted source about what their homes need. Many governments internationally, such as Scotland, provide online resources and tools to provide tailored advice to help with this.

    Energy upgrade programs run by neutral community organisations and councils can also help, such as Rewiring Australia’s Electrify 2515 or Geelong Sustainability’s Electric Homes Program. These programs use their expertise to vet suppliers and ensure households receive good deals and high quality products.

    2. Homes need to engage multiple suppliers and tradespeople

    Many households worked on their home gradually, one upgrade at a time. Each upgrade involved a labour-intensive process of researching products, selecting companies, getting quotes and managing the disruptions caused by the installation. One Sydney homeowner told us:

    The process of needing both a plumber and an electrician to change to induction cooking was frustrating. [We had to] to coordinate availability times and appliance delivery.

    Australians need companies that can do multiple upgrades at once, to simplify and streamline the process. In Ireland, the government helped stimulate a market for organisations that can cover all the upgrades needed by a household.

    Ireland has “One Stop Shops” for home energy upgrades (Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland)

    3. Households are losing opportunities for straightforward upgrades

    Every year, Australians invest billions in home renovations. They spent more than A$3 billion in the December 2024 quarter alone.

    One of the best times to improve your home is during major renovations or when old appliances, such as hot water systems, break down. If you’re already facing disruptions and need to spend money, it can be an easy and more cost-effective way to increase your home’s energy efficiency at the same time.

    Yet our research found advice on energy-saving upgrades was rarely provided to people undertaking major renovations or emergency replacements unless they asked for it. Households needed to seek out builders, architects and tradespeople who specialised in sustainability to get advice on an energy-saving renovation.

    Providing energy upgrades to homes should be a standard component of modern renovations. Otherwise, households are missing out on easy and more affordable opportunities to get these upgrades.

    4. Many tradespeople lack knowledge of energy-saving upgrades

    Our research found tradespeople are the most common point of contact for households. They can be a valuable source of information and advice to facilitate upgrades. However, many households reported difficulty finding tradespeople knowledgeable about – and willing to install – energy-saving upgrades.

    Some upgrades, such as solar panels, require specialised workforces. Others, such as hot water heat pumps are usually installed by regular plumbers and electricians.

    Some tradespeople lack the knowledge to advise on energy-saving upgrades or need training to install new technologies to a high standard. This situation leaves households vulnerable to misinformation, with a shortage of skilled workers to do their upgrades.

    Tradespeople require increased support and incentives to make energy-saving measures part of their skill set. This is especially true in regional areas, where there are fewer products and workers available.

    5. The costs are too high for many households

    A final, significant barrier was the cost of home upgrades, which often caused households to drop out early in the process. Australian households, particularly those with less disposable income, need more help with the upfront cost.

    One way to do this is through targeted government rebates, which are currently only available in some regions. Another is affordable and accessible financing, like that available in Tasmania and the ACT. The national Home Energy Upgrades Fund could also be extended to make sure available finance matches the scale of the challenge.

    Also needed are long-term reforms such as mandatory disclosure of energy performance when homes are sold and minimum energy standards for rental properties, which are currently only required in some jurisdictions in Australia. When these are both addressed we can make comfortable, and affordable homes the norm rather than the exception.

    Keeping warm in winter and cool in summer is the number one motivation for energy saving upgrades.
    RACE for 2030

    A worthwhile journey

    Roadblocks aside, households also shared the joy and satisfaction of completing home energy upgrades. While the journey was often difficult, those who reached the end of the road were overwhelmingly pleased with the results. A homeowner who had installed solar panels and undertaken draught-proofing and insulation in Adelaide said:

    It’s nice not to have huge electricity bills, and but I find it’s that day to day stuff of actually being comfortable that makes the biggest difference.

    This research was undertaken by Jaime Comber, Kamyar Soleimani, Ed Langham, Nimish Biloria, Leena Thomas and Kerryn Wilmot from the University of Technology, Sydney.

    Jaime Comber received funding for this research as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes (EUAH) initiative – a national collaboration between research, industry and government partners to enable scalable, community-led energy upgrades. EUAH is funded through the RACE for 2030 cooperative research centre, which includes contributions from the NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. The project is led by Climate-KIC Australia and Monash University.

    Ed Langham undertakes contract research for government, community and consumer advocates, and the clean energy industry. This research was funded as part of the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre’s Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes project, which is co-funded by Australian Government, NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. Ed is also affiliated with Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, based in the UK.

    Nimish Biloria receives funding through the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre. This research was undertaken as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes initiative, which is funded in part by the NSW Government, the Government of South Australia, and Knauf Insulation. Before this, Nimish Biloria has received funding from various governmental bodies, not-for-profit organizations, and the Industry such as the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), City of Sydney, AusIndustry Smart Cities and Suburbs Program, Transport for New South Wales, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Leigh Place Aged Care, Sydney, NSW, HMI Technologies.

    – ref. These 5 roadblocks are standing in the way of energy-efficient homes – https://theconversation.com/these-5-roadblocks-are-standing-in-the-way-of-energy-efficient-homes-256906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panos Karanikolas, Research officer, Melbourne Social Equity Institute, The University of Melbourne

    Rosie Marinelli/Shutterstock

    In an emergency, police are often the first called to the scene. But they are rarely equipped to deal with complex mental health crises.

    Following recent parliamentary inquiries and royal commissions there has been a push – led by researchers, advocates and some senior police officials – for a shift to a health-led and paramedic-first response.

    South Australia is one of a number of states trialling a program based on a “co-responder” model. This means trained specialists accompany police to some mental health call-outs in the community.

    So, how do co-responder programs work? And are they effective? Here’s what the evidence says.

    The current situation

    Mental health legislation in all states and territories gives police the power to use “reasonable force” to transport people who “appear to have a mental illness” to hospital to prevent harm.

    In most cases, this involves police taking people experiencing mental health crises to hospital emergency departments, without help from mental health clinicians or paramedics.

    Overburdened emergency departments have long wait times for mental health and are often inadequate at responding to people experiencing distress.

    Those who need mental health support may not need a hospital stay.

    One study found only one in five (23%) of those taken to emergency by police – usually after expressing intention to self-harm – were admitted.

    The strain on police resources is also significant. For example, in New South Wales, police now respond to triple zero calls about mental health crises in the community every nine minutes (in Victoria it’s every ten).

    Criminalising mental health

    The mere presence of police alone can escalate already heightened emotional situations.

    Police frequently lack training in mental health, with combative police culture and the militarisation of police training presenting significant problems.

    Police often acknowledge they are ill-equipped to intervene in a mental health crisis.

    Yet, about one in ten people who access mental health services have previously interacted with police.

    These encounters can be risky and even deadly.

    People who experience mental health issues are over-represented in incidents of police use of force and fatal shootings.

    Police involvement can also lead to the criminalisation of people with mental health issues and disability, as they are more likely to be issued with charges and fines or be arrested.

    Yet the main reason police take people to hospital is for self-harm or suicidal distress, and most are not deemed to be of risk to others.

    What do people with mental health issues want instead?

    In our research, conducted in 2021–2022, we interviewed 20 people across Australia who’d had police intervene when they had a mental health crisis.

    Those we spoke to often had multiple experiences of police call-outs over their lifetime.

    They told us excessive use of force by police had traumatising and long-term effects. Many were subject to pepper spray, tasers, police dogs, batons, handcuffs and restraints, despite not being accused of committing criminal offences.

    For example, Alex*, said:

    I was having an anxiety attack, and they pepper sprayed me. I had bruises all over my hands from the handcuffs they put on really roughly, even though I wasn’t under arrest. Then they took me to hospital.

    In our study, people with mental health issues said they would prefer an ambulance-led response wherever possible, without police attending at all.

    They also wanted to be linked to therapeutic and community-based services, including mental health peer support, housing, disability support and family violence services.

    What are co-responder programs?

    Co-responder programs aim to de-escalate mental health incidents, reduce the number of emergency department presentations and link people experiencing mental health crises with services.

    These programs, such as the one being trialled in South Australia, mean mental health clinicians (for example, social workers, counsellors or psychologists) attend some mental health incidents alongside police.

    Peer-reviewed research shows these kinds of responses can be effective when compared to traditional police-led interventions.

    An evaluation of a co-response program in Victoria found the mental health response was quicker and higher quality than when police attended alone.

    The success of programs in the United States and Canada shows many mental health crises can safely managed without police involvement, for example by addressing issues such as homelessness and addiction with health workers, and reducing the number of arrests.

    Limited by a lack of resources

    While the evidence shows co-responder schemes are valued by people with lived experience, they are often limited by under-resourcing.

    Co-responder programs are not universally available. Often, they do not operate after usual business hours or across regions.

    There is also a lack of long-term evaluations of these programs. This means what we understand about their implementation, design and effectiveness over time can be mixed.

    More broadly, the mental health sector is facing significant and ongoing labour shortages across Australia, posing another resourcing challenge.

    How can responses to mental health crises be improved?

    Last year, the final report from the Royal Commission into Victoria’s Mental Health System recommended paramedics should act as first responders in mental health crises wherever possible, instead of police, diverting triple zero calls to Ambulance Victoria.

    However that reform has been delayed, with no indication of when it may be implemented.

    A 2023 NSW parliamentary inquiry also remarked on the need to explore reducing police involvement.

    Co-responder and ambluance-first models offer an improvement.

    But our research suggests people with lived experience of mental health issues want more than ambulances replacing the police as crisis responders.

    They need a mental health system that supports them and provides what they needed, when they need it: compassionate, timely and non-coercive responses.

    *Name has been changed.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Panos Karanikolas is a member of the Victorian Mental Illness Awareness Council (VMIAC). He received funding for this research from the National Disability Research Partnership as part of a partnership with VMIAC.

    Chris Maylea receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, and national and state legal aid commissions.

    Hamilton Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better – https://theconversation.com/police-arent-properly-trained-for-mental-health-crises-but-theyre-often-the-first-responders-heres-what-works-better-257641

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Three years after the Jenkins report, there is still work to be done on improving parliament culture

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Maley, Senior Lecturer in Politics, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Three and a half years ago, then-sex discrimination commissioner Kate Jenkins’ Set the Standard report was handed to federal parliament, commissioned after Brittany Higgins’ allegations of sexual assault in Parliament House, which had shocked the public and politicians alike. Since then, work has been underway to implement its 28 recommendations.

    The report found unacceptable levels of sexual harassment, bullying and misconduct in parliamentary workplaces, and laid out a radical plan to create a standards regime. The plan would provide tools to deal with such conduct, and try to prevent it by changing the culture of parliament.

    In 2025, parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins review is due to be evaluated by an external independent reviewer. Have the recommendations been implemented? What are the prospects for continued reform of conduct in the parliamentary workplace? Will the election of an historic number of women into parliament create pressure for further reform?

    Action after the review

    On February 8 2022, the first sitting day of federal parliament after the Jenkins review had been handed down, both houses of parliament made an historic statement of acknowledgement and apology to the victims of misconduct in its workplace. It stated:

    We say sorry. […] This place and its members are committed to bringing about lasting and meaningful change to both culture and practice within our workplaces. We today declare our personal and collective commitment to make the changes required.

    Parliamentarians committed to implement all 28 recommendations of the Jenkins review. A cross-party body was created to lead the implementation process.

    Known as the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce, it had members from both houses of parliament, ministers and legislators, Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and one independent parliamentarian. It worked hard for three years to design and put in place the rules and mechanisms laid out in the Jenkins review, before disbanding in September 2024.

    The magnitude of the changes parliament had to make should not be understated. Among many ground-breaking reforms, it involved developing codes of conduct and a body to enforce them by investigating complaints about breaches of the code.

    In February 2023, both houses of parliament agreed on codes of conduct. In October 2024, an Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission was established to receive complaints, investigate and make findings about misconduct. There are seven commissioners, appointed from outside parliament, who are lawyers, former public servants, tribunal members and ex-ombudsmen. For the first time, there will be external independent review of parliamentarians’ conduct.

    An independent human resources body for the parliamentary workplace was also created, known as the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service. These are huge achievements and represent historic reforms.

    In line with Jenkins’ recommendations, the taskforce committed to an external independent review of parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins report.

    But has it been effective?

    It is hard to evaluate new rules, systems and bodies that are in their infancy, but one part of the new standards architecture does not represent best practice. After the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission has completed an investigation of a parliamentarian’s conduct, made findings and recommended sanctions, it will hand its report to the privileges committee in each house.

    The privileges committees are made up of parliamentarians, almost exclusively members of the major parties. It is up to these committees to decide on any action to be taken. We won’t know if they depart from the commission’s recommendations, as standards commission reports are not public.

    In the United Kingdom House of Commons, which represents best practice in this area, independent investigation reports are handed to a parliamentary committee called the Committee on Standards. Half the members of that committee are MPs, but half are “lay members” – that is, appointed members of the community, including lawyers and HR professionals.

    The House of Commons established its standards regime in 2018, and has reviewed and improved it over time. Lay members were placed on the committee because it was evident MPs found it difficult to judge the conduct of their peers and struggled to hold them accountable.

    Unfortunately Australia’s new standards system leaves decisions in the hands of parliamentarians, without the corrective and robustness that members of the public would provide. Will the federal parliament continue to reform and reshape its arrangements if they prove not to be robust enough?

    Ongoing leadership is needed if parliament is to continue to address conduct issues, drive culture change and refine and develop its new standards regime. Some believe the culture of parliament has improved since the Jenkins review. Others disagree.

    There are still recommendations of the review that have not been addressed. These include developing a ten-year strategy to increase diversity in the workplace, establishing a health and wellbeing service in parliament, and introducing an alcohol policy. Now that the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce has disbanded, who will continue to advance the reform process?

    In October 2024, parliament decided to create a Parliamentary Joint Committee on Parliamentary Standards. Its functions include reviewing the operation of the new codes and the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission.

    This committee should play a leadership role on conduct and culture issues, but its membership is tightly restricted. The government dominates positions and all members must also be members of the privileges committees. Presiding officers are not permitted to sit on the committee, despite their important leadership roles and responsibilities in parliament. Crossbenchers and independent parliamentarians are largely locked out of the committee (only two positions are reserved for them), despite the fact they have often been the leading voices calling for culture change.

    With the influx of many more women and new faces into the parliament after the election, there is an opportunity to press for continued reform and for membership of the joint committee to include diverse voices from across the parliament.

    In 2021 Maria Maley worked as a consultant to the Jenkins Review.

    – ref. Three years after the Jenkins report, there is still work to be done on improving parliament culture – https://theconversation.com/three-years-after-the-jenkins-report-there-is-still-work-to-be-done-on-improving-parliament-culture-257810

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s plan to protect its trade in war is flawed. We can’t do it with nuclear submarines

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Palazzo, Adjunct Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at UNSW Canberra, UNSW Sydney

    If war breaks out someday between the United States and China, one of the major concerns for Australia is the impact on its trade.

    Our trade routes are long and exposed. Every year, thousands of merchant ships — bulk carriers, tankers, container ships and other types — visit Australian ports to deliver imported goods and pick up exports for delivery at distant ports.

    When a cargo ship of petroleum leaves the Persian Gulf for refining in East Asia, then sails for Australia, the total trip is approximately 20,000 kilometres. The ship passes through lonely stretches of sea and numerous choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, often within range of missiles and other weapons.

    Such attacks could come from Chinese ships in the event of a war, or as we’ve seen in the Middle East with the Houthi rebels, they could also come from militants seeking to disrupt global shipping.

    Australia’s current defence strategy cites the security of our “sea lines of communication and maritime trade” as a priority. The aim is to prevent an adversary from cutting off critical supplies to our continent in a war.

    To achieve this, the government has embarked on the lengthy process of expanding the Royal Australian Navy surface and sub-surface fleet, including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

    As I explain in my forthcoming book, The Big Fix: Rebuilding Australia’s National Security, the problem with the government’s maritime plan is that it is built on a deeply flawed foundation and cannot deliver what it promises.

    A flawed maritime plan

    Defence documents insist on a need for the Australian Defence Force to be able to project naval power far from Australia’s shores in order to protect the nation’s trade. The presence of these warships would ostensibly deter attacks on our vital shipping.

    However, those who developed the maritime plan do not appear to have considered whether the merchant ships delivering this trade would continue to sail to Australia in the event of a war — presumably with China.

    The reality is that Australia’s A$1.2 trillion of exports and imports are carried in ships owned by non-Australian companies, flying foreign flags and largely crewed by citizens of other countries.

    Decisions about whether to continue sailing to Australia during a conflict would be made in overseas boardrooms and capitals. The Australian government has no leverage to force the owners of these ships to continue to service our continent. Australia’s national interests may well not be the paramount concern.

    Nor does the Australian government have the option to turn to Australian-flagged vessels. Australia’s shipping list contains only a handful of domestically owned and flagged cargo ships available in case of war.

    In fact, the biggest vessel (by length) that the government could take into service is the Spirit of Tasmania IV ferry.

    If all goes according to schedule, at some point in the 2040s, Australia will have at most 26 surface warships and perhaps eight nuclear-powered submarines the navy hopes to acquire through the AUKUS deal.

    Due to training and maintenance requirements, the total number of vessels available at any one time would be more on the order of ten.

    In other words, the government’s future maritime plan — costing hundreds of billion dollars — may result in just ten available ships at any given time to protect the nation’s trade over thousands of kilometres.

    What could work instead

    Fortunately, Australia has other options for safeguarding its trade that don’t necessitate the building of warships.

    Our first investment in security should be diplomatic. The government should prioritise its investment in diplomacy across the region to promote security, including trade security.

    Regional countries are best placed to secure the waterways around Australia, particularly from the most likely future threat: Houthi-like militants.

    The Australian government should also modernise its shipping regulations and include in the budget provisions for war-risk insurance. Such insurance could compensate owners for the potential loss of ships and cargoes as an inducement for them to sail to and from Australia during war.

    The government must also encourage greater investment in our national resilience. Currently, the biggest risk during a conflict is an interruption to the nation’s liquid fuel supply. We must greatly expand our on-shore reserves of fossil fuels in the short term, while initiating a nation-building project to electrify the economy in the long term. Electrification would eliminate a considerable vulnerability to national security.



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    Additionally, the government should identify and subsidise vital industries, such as fertilisers and certain medicines, which are essential to the continued functioning of our society in the event of a war. This would reduce our reliance on imports of critical materials.

    Lastly, Australian industries, with the government’s assistance, should further diversify their trading partners to reduce over-dependence on one or two main destinations.

    Trade is undoubtedly important to Australia and the government is correct to protect it. But it is also true that not all security problems are best answered by the military.

    This is particularly important since the size of our planned fleet is obviously insufficient for the enormous task it will face. Either Australia invests in impossibly large numbers of warships or it takes a different path.

    The art of war requires a balance between the desired ends and the means to achieve them. This simple statement underpins the formation of all good strategy, which a state ignores at its peril.

    Unfortunately, in the case of the nation’s maritime plan, the ends and means are seriously out of whack. Instead of setting itself up for failure, the government needs to put aside its ineffectual maritime plan and choose the means that do align with the ends. Only then will it be possible to protect Australia’s trade.

    Albert Palazzo was the long-serving director of War Studies for the Australian Army.

    – ref. Australia’s plan to protect its trade in war is flawed. We can’t do it with nuclear submarines – https://theconversation.com/australias-plan-to-protect-its-trade-in-war-is-flawed-we-cant-do-it-with-nuclear-submarines-256557

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto: How speculative art can help us navigate threats

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Pascal Michelberger, Postdoctoral Scholar, Western Academy for Advanced Research, Western University

    Artist Dara Vandor’s futuristic, commemorative historical plaques on Toronto streets project a U.S.-annexed Canada. (Dara Vandor)

    As part of her ongoing public art series, Pax Americana, Toronto visual artist Dara Vandor has been posting aluminum signs in public spaces.

    These are plaques that reimagine, as the artist writes, the city as “a site of future conflict and occupation” by the United States. The signage, in the style of commemorative historical markers, echoes U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent and repeated threats to annex Canada and “is meant to serve as a dark warning, inviting contemplation on the fragility of nationhood.”

    For example, one plaque, posted on a bridge on Spadina Ave., informs passersby:

    “This spot served as the center of operations for United States Army snipers during Operation McKinley, the campaign to liberate the northern territory formerly known as Canada. From February to May 2035, this site, code-named ‘The Hot Dog Stand,’ served as a concealed sniper’s nest, providing precision fire support, disrupting insurgent movements, and protecting advancing American units.”

    Vandor’s thought-provoking project, which she told CBC News was sparked by anger at Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, underlines how storytelling can be a powerful tool in times of conflict, especially when it affords itself the artistic freedom to envision potential futures before they can become reality.

    Psychological effects

    In order to understand how exactly stories such as the one portrayed on Vandor’s plaques can make a real impact on the way we navigate moments of crisis, we can turn to the work of conflict analysis experts such as Solon Simmons.

    In his recent book on conflict storytelling, Simmons introduces the concept of post-plot pressure.

    The term describes the psychological effect that a story can have on its readers after they finish reading. As Simmons puts it:

    “What makes stories so important (as opposed to just interesting or entertaining) is the effect of the story, and this effect doesn’t end when the story ends. It leaves the viewer/reader/listener with a feeling.”

    Simmons also explains that the kind and amount of post-plot pressure placed upon an audience depends on the type of story being told.

    Projected unhappy ending exerts pressure

    A story, for example, featuring a struggle in which the antagonist eventually triumphs over the protagonist is what Simmons calls a “satirical struggle story.”

    “Satirical” in this context does not necessarily mean that stories of this kind include elements of mockery or sarcasm. Rather, the label goes back to the influential research contributions of Canadian literary theorist Northrop Frye and American historian Hayden White, from which Simmons derives his own framework.

    This is exactly how to understand the story told over its several episodes on Vandor’s Pax Americana plaques: the U.S., as the story’s antagonist, abuses its power and ends up getting away with it, defeating Canadian resistance and annexing what is now only referred to as the “northern territory.”

    As Simmons suggests, conflict stories like this one, where what is viewed as injustice is allowed to prevail, exercise a relatively high level of post-plot pressure. This is mainly because the unhappy ending leaves audiences dissatisfied and with a sense of loss to grapple with.

    Reader reactions

    Simmons also explains that not all readers react to this particular kind of post-plot pressure in the same way. Vandor’s project, for example, has brought out some critical and upset responses.

    As the artist told Toronto Today, some people have called the plaques pro-American propaganda; one online commenter said they should be taken down.

    Julian Bleecker — a researcher, author, designer and engineer with a PhD in history of consciousness whose design studio offers services around future imagining and planning — voiced his objection to the project in a blog post.

    In his opinion, the antagonistic and fatalistic vision of the future portrayed on the plaques runs the risk of “playing into the hands of the very forces that are at work to make the world a less habitable place.”



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    But, as Simmons argues, conflict stories in which the happy ending never comes can also leave readers with a productive sense of post-plot pressure. In that case, feeling dissatisfied with the story’s outcome can instead motivate people to mobilize and strategize against the perceived injustice.

    Seen in this light, the plaques’ imagined collapse of Canadian sovereignty can therefore also serve as a stark and urgent inspiration, begging response.

    A sign in an alleyway says 'let go of your past, and welcome to our united future.'
    In Dara Vandor’s speculative future, U.S. President Ivanka Trump, standing on a tank, exhorts Torontonians to ‘Let go of your past, and welcome to our united future.’
    (Dara Vandor)

    A cautionary tale

    Fictional storytelling is often viewed as a useful tool that allows us to make sense of real moments of conflict that happened in the past. Think, for example, of Erich Maria Remarque’s famous war novel All Quiet on the Western Front, which was turned into an Oscar-winning film directed by Edward Berger in 2022.

    Our understanding of these kinds of stories as useful comes with the acknowledgement that there is nothing we can do to prevent past conflict. At the same time, the underlying assumption here is that by learning about the past, we can learn from the past and hopefully stop similar crises from ever happening again.



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    What makes Vandor’s ongoing project especially valuable is that it moves its reflections on the past into an imagined future. The actual conflict that the plaques refer to is still part of the present, and its future still undecided. Whatever lessons we draw from their cautionary tale about Canadian annexation, we still have time to act upon them before that imagined future can become reality.

    Importance of resistance in the present

    This is exactly what leads historian Camille Bégin to conclude that the project’s appeal to the importance of resistance in the present is particularly strong:

    “It really shows us that the future is not written, that it’s in our hands to act in the present to forge the future that we want.”

    Even though Vandor’s project tells a story of Canadian defeat, it also highlights that Canadians did resist, a thought that should appeal to anyone opposed to Trump’s vision of territorial expansion.

    Or, and this is perhaps the most hopeful reflection coming out of the project, if Canadians come together and resist now, Trump’s threat of annexation may never get that far.

    The Conversation

    Pascal Michelberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto: How speculative art can help us navigate threats – https://theconversation.com/pax-americana-in-toronto-how-speculative-art-can-help-us-navigate-threats-256755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –