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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: If it looks like a dire wolf, is it a dire wolf? How to define a species is a scientific and philosophical question

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elay Shech, Professor of Philosophy, Auburn University

    How do you recreate a species whose genome is largely unknown? sunxsand/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Biotech company Colossal Biosciences made headlines in April 2025 after claiming it had “successfully restored … the dire wolf to its rightful place in the ecosystem.” Three wolf pups – Romulus, Remus and Khaleesi – were born through this de-extinction project.

    But behind the scenes lies a more complicated reality.

    What Colossal actually did was edit a small number of gray wolf genes, aiming to create physical traits that resemble those of the extinct dire wolf. The edited embryos were implanted into surrogate domestic dogs.

    Many scientists and reporters expressed skepticism about the claim that this amounts to restoring the dire wolf. Experts pointed out that tweaking a handful of genes does not replicate the full biological reality of a long-extinct species. Most of the dire wolf’s genetic makeup remains unknown and unreplicated.

    Is resembling a dire wolf enough for something to be a dire wolf?
    James St. John/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    This gap between appearance and biological identity raises a deeper question: What exactly is a species, and how do you decide whether something belongs to one species rather than another?

    Biologists call the answer a species concept – a theory about what a species is and how researchers sort organisms into different groups. As a philosopher of science who studies what defines a species, I can say this: Whether de-extinction projects succeed depends on which species concept you think is right – and the truth is, even scientists don’t agree.

    How scientists define a species

    When scientists talk about biodiversity – the variety of life-forms found in nature – species are the basic building blocks. A species is supposed to reflect a real division between distinct groups of organisms in the natural world, not just a convenient label.

    In classifying living things into species, scientists are trying to “carve nature at its joints” to reflect real patterns shaped by evolution. Even so, deciding what counts as a species turns out to be surprisingly difficult and highly controversial. Scientists have proposed dozens of distinct species concepts – some scholars have counted over 32 ways to define a species – and each draws the lines a little differently. These definitions don’t always agree on whether an organism is part of one species rather than another.

    Two of the most influential species concepts highlight the challenge. The biological species concept defines a species as a group of organisms that can naturally breed with each other and produce fertile offspring. Under this view, African forest elephants and African savanna elephants were once classified as the same species because they could mate and have young together, even though they lived in different habitats and looked different.

    Another approach, the phylogenetic species concept, emphasizes ancestry instead of breeding. A species, in this view, is a group that shares a unique evolutionary history, forming its own distinct branch on the tree of life. By this standard, researchers found that forest and savanna elephants had been genetically evolving separately for millions of years, long enough to be considered different species even if they could still interbreed.

    African savanna elephants, left, and African forest elephants are considered two distinct species.
    Charles J. Sharp, Thomas Breuer/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Understanding these different species concepts is crucial for evaluating claims about de-extinction. If Romulus, Remus and Khaleesi could naturally mate with historical dire wolves and produce fertile offspring, then they would be considered true dire wolves under the biological species concept.

    But for definitions of species that emphasize evolutionary history, such as the phylogenetic species concept, the lab-created wolves would not qualify as real dire wolves – even if they were indistinguishable from the originals – because they did not descend from historical dire wolves.

    Despite differences on how best to define species, there is a surprising degree of consensus among scientists and philosophers on one big idea: What makes something part of a species is not an internal feature, such as a specific set of genes, but a relationship to something else – to its environment, to other organisms, or to a shared evolutionary history.

    By this way of thinking – what is often called relationalism – there is no special “lemon gene” that makes a lemon and no hidden genetic marker that automatically makes an animal a dire wolf. Commonly shared across all these theories is the notion that belonging to a particular species depends on connections and context, not on anything inside the organism itself.

    But what if that consensus is wrong?

    On warblers and mitochondria

    At first glance, the standard ways of defining a species seem to work well. But every now and then, nature throws a curveball – and even the most trusted definitions don’t quite fit.

    Take the case of the blue-winged and golden-winged warblers. These two songbirds look and sound different. They wear different plumage, sing different songs and prefer different habitats. Birders and organizations such as the American Ornithological Society have always classified them as separate species.

    Yet under two of the most common scientific definitions of species, the biological and phylogenetic species concepts, blue-winged and golden-winged warblers are considered the same species. These birds regularly mate and produce young together. They’ve been swapping genes for thousands of years. And when scientists looked at their nuclear DNA – the genetic material tucked inside the nucleus of each cell – they found the two birds are 99.97% identical. This finding suggests that even careful, widely accepted species definitions can miss something important.

    The golden-winged warbler, left, and blue-winged warbler are considered two distinct species, but according to many species concepts they would count as the same.
    Wildreturn, Ken Janes/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    So what if, instead, the key to being part of a species lies deep inside the organism, in the way its basic systems of life fit together?

    Recent work in biology and philosophy suggests another way of thinking about species that focuses on a hidden but vital system inside cells: the partnership between two sets of genetic material. I and my colleague Kyle B. Heine explore this idea by drawing on research in mitonuclear ecology – the study of how different parts of an organism’s genetic material adapt and work together to produce energy.

    Virtually every cell contains two kinds of DNA. One set, stored in the nucleus, acts like an instruction manual that guides most of the cell’s activities. The other, found in structures called mitochondria – the cell’s energy centers – contains its own much smaller set of instructions geared toward supporting its unique role in keeping the cell running.

    Producing energy depends on precise teamwork between nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA, like two musicians playing in perfect harmony. Over millions of years, the nuclear and mitochondrial DNA of each species have evolved together to form a unique, finely tuned system.

    This insight has led to a new way of thinking about species, called the mitonuclear compatibility species concept. According to this idea, an organism belongs to a species if its two sets of genes – those in the nucleus and those in the mitochondria – are optimized to work together to generate life-sustaining energy. If the cellular partnership between these two genetic systems is mismatched, the organism may struggle to produce the energy it needs to survive, grow and reproduce.

    By this standard, different species aren’t just defined by how they look or behave, but by whether their nuclear and mitochondrial genes form a uniquely coadapted team. For example, even though blue-winged and golden-winged warblers are nearly identical in their nuclear DNA, they differ by about 3% in their mitochondrial DNA – a clue that their energy systems are distinct. And that’s exactly what the mitonuclear compatibility species concept predicts: They really are two separate species.

    Nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA evolve together for cells – and species – to thrive.
    National Human Genome Research Institute

    Rethinking the meaning of de-extinction

    Bringing back a species like the dire wolf isn’t just a matter of getting the fur right or tweaking a few visible traits. According to my preferred species concept, even if a recreated animal looks the part, it won’t truly be a dire wolf unless its inner genetic systems – the ones that power its cells – are finely tuned to work together, just as they were in the original species.

    That’s a tall order. And without restoring the full inner machinery of the original species, any lab-grown look-alike would fall short.

    Understanding how scientists define species – and how those definitions shape the possibilities of de-extinction – offers more than just a lesson in biological bookkeeping. It shows that classification is not just about names or lineages, but about recognizing the deep biological patterns that sustain life, offering a deeper appreciation of what it really means to bring back the past.

    Reviving an extinct species isn’t like assembling a model from spare parts. It means recreating a living, breathing system – one whose parts must work in concert, not just look the part.

    And that’s why philosophy and science both matter here: To understand what we’re bringing back, we must first understand what was truly lost.

    Elay Shech does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. If it looks like a dire wolf, is it a dire wolf? How to define a species is a scientific and philosophical question – https://theconversation.com/if-it-looks-like-a-dire-wolf-is-it-a-dire-wolf-how-to-define-a-species-is-a-scientific-and-philosophical-question-255375

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Prime numbers, the building blocks of mathematics, have fascinated for centuries − now technology is revolutionizing the search for them

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeremiah Bartz, Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of North Dakota

    Prime numbers are numbers that are not products of smaller whole numbers. Jeremiah Bartz

    A shard of smooth bone etched with irregular marks dating back 20,000 years puzzled archaeologists until they noticed something unique – the etchings, lines like tally marks, may have represented prime numbers. Similarly, a clay tablet from 1800 B.C.E. inscribed with Babylonian numbers describes a number system built on prime numbers.

    As the Ishango bone, the Plimpton 322 tablet and other artifacts throughout history display, prime numbers have fascinated and captivated people throughout history. Today, prime numbers and their properties are studied in number theory, a branch of mathematics and active area of research today.

    A history of prime numbers

    Some scientists guess that the markings on the Ishango bone represent prime numbers.
    Joeykentin/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Informally, a positive counting number larger than one is prime if that number of dots can be arranged only into a rectangular array with one column or one row. For example, 11 is a prime number since 11 dots form only rectangular arrays of sizes 1 by 11 and 11 by 1. Conversely, 12 is not prime since you can use 12 dots to make an array of 3 by 4 dots, with multiple rows and multiple columns. Math textbooks define a prime number as a whole number greater than one whose only positive divisors are only 1 and itself.

    Math historian Peter S. Rudman suggests that Greek mathematicians were likely the first to understand the concept of prime numbers, around 500 B.C.E.

    Around 300 B.C.E., the Greek mathematician and logician Euler proved that there are infinitely many prime numbers. Euler began by assuming that there is a finite number of primes. Then he came up with a prime that was not on the original list to create a contradiction. Since a fundamental principle of mathematics is being logically consistent with no contradictions, Euler then concluded that his original assumption must be false. So, there are infinitely many primes.

    The argument established the existence of infinitely many primes, however it was not particularly constructive. Euler had no efficient method to list all the primes in an ascending list.

    Prime numbers, when expressed as that number of dots, can be arranged only in a single row or column, rather than a square or rectangle.
    David Eppstein/Wikimedia Commons

    In the middle ages, Arab mathematicians advanced the Greeks’ theory of prime numbers, referred to as hasam numbers during this time. The Persian mathematician Kamal al-Din al-Farisi formulated the fundamental theorem of arithmetic, which states that any positive integer larger than one can be expressed uniquely as a product of primes.

    From this view, prime numbers are the basic building blocks for constructing any positive whole number using multiplication – akin to atoms combining to make molecules in chemistry.

    Prime numbers can be sorted into different types. In 1202, Leonardo Fibonacci introduced in his book “Liber Abaci: Book of Calculation” prime numbers of the form (2p – 1) where p is also prime.

    Today, primes in this form are called Mersenne primes after the French monk Marin Mersenne. Many of the largest known primes follow this format.

    Several early mathematicians believed that a number of the form (2p – 1) is prime whenever p is prime. But in 1536, mathematician Hudalricus Regius noticed that 11 is prime but not (211 – 1), which equals 2047. The number 2047 can be expressed as 11 times 89, disproving the conjecture.

    While not always true, number theorists realized that the (2p – 1) shortcut often produces primes and gives a systematic way to search for large primes.

    The search for large primes

    The number (2p – 1) is much larger relative to the value of p and provides opportunities to identify large primes.

    When the number (2p – 1) becomes sufficiently large, it is much harder to check whether (2p – 1) is prime – that is, if (2p – 1) dots can be arranged only into a rectangular array with one column or one row.

    Fortunately, Édouard Lucas developed a prime number test in 1878, later proved by Derrick Henry Lehmer in 1930. Their work resulted in an efficient algorithm for evaluating potential Mersenne primes. Using this algorithm with hand computations on paper, Lucas showed in 1876 that the 39-digit number (2127 – 1) equals 170,141,183,460,469,231,731,687,303,715,884,105,727, and that value is prime.

    Also known as M127, this number remains the largest prime verified by hand computations. It held the record for largest known prime for 75 years.

    Researchers began using computers in the 1950s, and the pace of discovering new large primes increased. In 1952, Raphael M. Robinson identified five new Mersenne primes using a Standard Western Automatic Computer to carry out the Lucas-Lehmer prime number tests.

    As computers improved, the list of Mersenne primes grew, especially with the Cray supercomputer’s arrival in 1964. Although there are infinitely many primes, researchers are unsure how many fit the type (2p – 1) and are Mersenne primes.

    By the early 1980s, researchers had accumulated enough data to confidently believe that infinitely many Mersenne primes exist. They could even guess how often these prime numbers appear, on average. Mathematicians have not found proof so far, but new data continues to support these guesses.

    George Woltman, a computer scientist, founded the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search, or GIMPS, in 1996. Through this collaborative program, anyone can download freely available software from the GIMPS website to search for Mersenne prime numbers on their personal computers. The website contains specific instructions on how to participate.

    GIMPS has now identified 18 Mersenne primes, primarily on personal computers using Intel chips. The program averages a new discovery about every one to two years.

    The largest known prime

    Luke Durant, a retired programmer, discovered the current record for the largest known prime, (2136,279,841 – 1), in October 2024.

    Referred to as M136279841, this 41,024,320-digit number was the 52nd Mersenne prime identified and was found by running GIMPS on a publicly available cloud-based computing network.

    This network used Nvidia chips and ran across 17 countries and 24 data centers. These advanced chips provide faster computing by handling thousands of calculations simultaneously. The result is shorter run times for algorithms such as prime number testing.

    New and increasingly powerful computer chips have allowed prime-number hunters to find increasingly larger primes.
    Fritzchens Fritz/Flickr

    The Electronic Frontier Foundation is a civil liberty group that offers cash prizes for identifying large primes. It awarded prizes in 2000 and 2009 for the first verified 1 million-digit and 10 million-digit prime numbers.

    Large prime number enthusiasts’ next two challenges are to identify the first 100 million-digit and 1 billion-digit primes. EFF prizes of US$150,000 and $250,000, respectively, await the first successful individual or group.

    Eight of the 10 largest known prime numbers are Mersenne primes, so GIMPS and cloud computing are poised to play a prominent role in the search for record-breaking large prime numbers.

    Large prime numbers have a vital role in many encryption methods in cybersecurity, so every internet user stands to benefit from the search for large prime numbers. These searches help keep digital communications and sensitive information safe.

    Jeremiah Bartz owns shares in Nvidia.

    – ref. Prime numbers, the building blocks of mathematics, have fascinated for centuries − now technology is revolutionizing the search for them – https://theconversation.com/prime-numbers-the-building-blocks-of-mathematics-have-fascinated-for-centuries-now-technology-is-revolutionizing-the-search-for-them-249223

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Supreme Court’s gender ruling has implications for the workplace. Here’s what employees can expect

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Lord, Lecturer in Human Resource Management and Employment Law, University of Salford

    studiocho/Shutterstock

    In April 2025, the UK’s Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling in For Women Scotland Ltd v Scottish Ministers, offering long-awaited clarification on how “sex” should be interpreted under the Equality Act 2010. The court ruled that, for the purposes of this legislation, “woman” refers to biological sex, not gender identity.

    The decision sparked intense debate across political, legal, and social spheres. But beyond the controversy, one crucial question remains: what does this mean for employers and employees?

    For managers, the implications are significant. Legal obligations must now be understood within a clarified framework that distinguishes between biological sex and gender reassignment.

    Employers face legal risks such as unlimited compensation at an employment tribunal. There’s also the potential fallout in terms of their reputation, as well as internal tensions as staff navigate issues of identity, belief and inclusion.

    The Supreme Court case centred on whether Scottish legislation could expand the definition of “woman” to include transgender women with a gender recognition certificate (GRC). The court ruled it could not, reaffirming that the Equality Act defines “woman” and “man” by reference to biological sex. While the Act separately protects people with the characteristic of gender reassignment, the two are not interchangeable in law.

    This ruling has wide-reaching implications for how single-sex services – such as women-only refuges, sports or changing facilities – can be structured. Under Schedule 3 of the Equality Act, providers may offer single-sex services where it is a “proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”. The judgement affirms that such services must now be assessed strictly through the lens of biological sex.

    For employers, this means they are required to navigate a more tightly defined legal landscape. The Equality Act 2010 recognises both sex and gender reassignment as protected characteristics. While single-sex spaces are lawful in limited, justifiable contexts, the legal bar for exclusion remains high.

    In practical terms, employers must ensure that provision of single-sex facilities – such as toilets, showers and changing rooms – complies with the Act.

    Any such policies must be rooted in demonstrable need, such as privacy, dignity or safety concerns, and must not cause undue harm to trans employees. Providing gender-neutral or private alternatives is increasingly seen as good practice to minimise legal and reputational risk.

    There is a real risk of legal claims on either side. Cisgender women may bring claims where their rights to single-sex spaces are perceived to be undermined. Meanwhile, trans individuals may claim indirect discrimination if reasonable adjustments such as updating internal systems (email or ID badges, for example) or offering a uniform to reflect the employee’s identity are not made.

    Employers must ensure that decisions on workplace design or service provision are evidence-based, proportionate and reviewed regularly.

    What employers should be offering

    Navigating this complex issue demands more than legal compliance. At its core, this is about people – and creating a respectful and inclusive workplace culture that values all employees.

    Employers should review and reinforce workplace values through:

    • clear dignity and respect policies that ensure staff are aware of lawful protections for both sex-based and gender identity rights

    • voluntary and inclusive communication practices, such as the optional use of pronouns in email signatures or profiles

    • training for managers and staff on both the legal framework and the lived realities of trans and gender-critical perspectives

    • robust mechanisms for resolving disputes that treat all complaints sensitively and without bias.

    Such steps will not only mitigate legal risk, they can also foster trust, morale and retention in a diverse workforce.

    Employee handbooks and HR policies should be checked and updated if necessary so that all staff know what they are entitled to.
    Vitalii Vodolazskyi/Shutterstock

    Employers must review whether their facilities and HR policies comply with the clarified legal interpretation.

    In terms of facilities, where single-sex provisions exist, employers should ensure that they serve a clear and proportionate aim. This might be a female-only changing room in a fitness centre or healthcare setting where staff or service users are required to undress. Or it could be a women-only toilet or shower facility in a refuge for survivors of domestic abuse.

    At the same time, gender-neutral or private alternatives should be considered to meet the needs of trans and non-binary employees.

    And when it comes to HR and equality policies, employee handbooks, inclusion strategies and grievance procedures should be updated in line with the ruling. Employers should carry out impact assessments to determine whether any group is indirectly disadvantaged. They should then clearly document any steps for mitigation.

    One of the most sensitive implications of the ruling is how employers manage conflicting beliefs. Some employees may have gender-critical views, while others consider gender identity as central to inclusion.

    Following the decision in the Forstater v CGD Europe case, these views – if expressed respectfully – are protected under the Equality Act’s provisions on religion or belief. Employers must walk a careful line: upholding lawful freedom of belief while enforcing respectful conduct.

    Best practice includes things like promoting freedom of expression without tolerating harassment or abuse, avoiding compelled speech (for example, forced pronoun use) while encouraging inclusive language, and offering mediation where tensions arise between staff.

    The key is balance. It should be possible to protect all employees’ rights while ensuring that no one feels unsafe or undermined. Some gender-critical employees may feel legally vindicated in expressing sex-based views. Others, particularly trans and non-binary staff, may feel their identities are being questioned or their inclusion diminished.

    Workplace dignity policies must ensure that everyone is treated respectfully and fairly. As such, employers must carefully manage interpersonal dynamics and provide clear channels for raising concerns.

    The Supreme Court ruling does not strip rights – it clarifies the legal terrain. For employers, the priority should be legal clarity, respectful inclusion and thoughtful leadership. This is not a time for reactive or ideological responses. Rather, it calls for policies that are lawful, proportionate and based on the principles of fairness and dignity.

    By updating facilities, reviewing policies, training staff and managing conflict with integrity, employers can ensure that their workplaces uphold the law while building a culture of trust and mutual respect. The law has spoken, and now it’s time for employers to lead.

    Jonathan Lord does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Supreme Court’s gender ruling has implications for the workplace. Here’s what employees can expect – https://theconversation.com/the-supreme-courts-gender-ruling-has-implications-for-the-workplace-heres-what-employees-can-expect-257677

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivis García, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University

    Hurricane Harvey inundated the Cottage Grove neighborhood of Houston in 2018. Scott Olson/Getty Images

    When powerful storms hit your city, which neighborhoods are most likely to flood? In many cities, they’re typically low-income areas. They may have poor drainage, or they lack protections such as seawalls.

    New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward, where hundreds of people died when Hurricane Katrina broke a levee in 2005, and Houston’s Kashmere Gardens, flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are just two among many examples.

    With those disasters in mind, the Federal Emergency Management Agency made a big change to its Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide in 2023. The agency began encouraging cities, towns and counties to address equity in their hazard mitigation plans, which outline how they will reduce disaster risk.

    Local governments have an incentive to follow those federal guidelines: Those that want to receive FEMA hazard mitigation assistance – money which can be used to repair aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers – or funding from other programs such as dam rehabilitation have to develop local mitigation plans and update them every five years.

    Hurricane Irma flooded Immokalee, Fla., in 2017. The community, home to many farmworkers, had infrastructure problems before the storm, and recovery was slow.
    AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

    The new guidance required cities to both consider social vulnerability among neighborhoods in their disaster mitigation planning and involve socially vulnerable communities in those discussions in ways they hadn’t before.

    However, as the U.S. heads into what forecasters predict will be an active 2025 hurricane season, that guidance has changed again. The Trump administration’s new FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide 2025 talks about public involvement in planning but strips any mention of equity, income or social vulnerability. It mentions using “projections for the future” to plan but removes references to climate change.

    Who is most at risk in hurricanes, and why

    Hurricanes and other storms that cause flooding don’t affect everyone in the same way.

    A legacy of redlining and discrimination in many U.S. cities left poor and minority families living in often risky areas. These neighborhoods also tend to have poorer infrastructure.

    In the past, local mitigation plans just focused on fixing roads or protecting property in general from storm damage, without recognizing that socially vulnerable groups, such as low-income or elderly populations, were more likely to be hardest hit and take much longer to recover.

    Low-income neighborhoods in Puerto Rico have been slow to recover from 2017’s Hurricane Maria.
    Ivis Garcia

    The FEMA 2023 guidance encouraged communities to consider both the highest risks and which neighborhoods would be least able to respond in a disaster and address their needs.

    The equity requirement was designed to ensure that local plans didn’t just protect those with the most wealth or political influence but considered who needs the help most. That might mean providing information in multiple languages in emergency alerts or investing in flood prevention in neighborhoods with aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers.

    How New York City’s 2024 plan helped

    New York City’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, for example, included a thorough social vulnerability assessment to identify neighborhoods with high percentages of people who were living in poverty or were older, disabled or weren’t fluent in English.

    Knowing where disaster risk and social vulnerability overlapped allowed the city to boost investments in flood protection, emergency communication and cooling centers during summer heat in neighborhoods such as the South Bronx and East Harlem. These neighborhoods historically faced some of the greatest risks from disasters but saw little investment.

    The NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice mapped the risk of storm surge flooding in the 2020s (purple) and 2080s (dark blue), and neighborhoods that fall under the city’s ‘disadvantaged communities’ criteria. A 1% risk means a 1% of chance of flooding in any given year, also referred to as a 100-year flood risk.
    NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice

    Further, New York’s plan calls for expanding outreach and early warning systems in multiple languages and enhancing infrastructure in areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers. These kinds of changes help ensure that vulnerable residents are more likely to be better protected when disaster strikes.

    Why is FEMA dropping that emphasis now?

    FEMA’s reasoning for the guidance change in 2025: make it quicker and easier to get plans approved and unlock federal funding for projects like flood barriers, storm shelters and buyouts in areas at high risk of damage.

    It’s a pragmatic move, but one that raises big questions about whether residents who are least able to help themselves will be overlooked again when the next disaster strikes.

    And FEMA isn’t alone — other agencies, like the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and its Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery program, have made similar changes to their own disaster planning rules. Community Development Block Grant funds for disaster recovery are flexible and can be used for things like rebuilding homes and businesses, restoring infrastructure and helping local economies recover.

    What this means for low-income areas

    Some experts worry that the changes might mean low-income and other at-risk communities will be ignored again when cities develop their next five-year mitigation plans. Research from the Government Accountability Office shows that when something is required by law, it gets done. When it’s just a suggestion, it’s easy to skip, especially in places with fewer resources or less political will to help.

    But the short-lived rules may have already helped in one important way: They made cities and states pay attention to social vulnerability, climate change and the needs of all their residents.

    Many local leaders have learned the value of using data to understand where socially vulnerable residents face high disaster risks. And they have a model now for involving communities in decision-making. Even if those steps are no longer required, the hope is that these good habits will stick.

    Where and how communities invest in disaster protection affects who stays safe and who faces higher risks from flooding, hurricanes and other disasters. When government policy shifts, it’s not just about paperwork – it’s about real people.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-season-is-here-but-femas-policy-change-could-leave-low-income-areas-less-protected-256985

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul N. McDaniel, Associate Professor of Geography, Kennesaw State University

    The Mexican-American community in southwest Detroit held a rally in March 2025, asking ICE to leave the immigrant community alone. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Detroit’s population grew in 2024 for the second year in a row. This is a remarkable comeback after decades of population decline in the Motor City.

    What explains the turnaround? One factor may be Detroit’s efforts to attract and settle immigrants.

    These efforts continue despite a dramatic national shift in tone toward new arrivals. This includes executive orders from the second Trump administration targeting immigrant communities, international students and their universities, and cities in which immigrants live.

    We study urban geography and immigrant integration. Despite these federal policy shifts, our own research and that of others has found that local leaders in cities across the U.S. are actively working to bring immigrants in and help them become part of local communities, generally for economic reasons.

    Our recent publications on immigrant integration and immigrant community engagement show how and why cities adapt to changes in their population and economies.

    Detroit and other former immigrant gateway metro areas such as Buffalo, New York; Cleveland, Ohio; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and St. Louis, Missouri experienced significant immigration in the early 20th century. These population booms were followed by a period of decline in immigration numbers.

    Now these cities are using branding strategies to construct inclusive identities designed to attract and retain immigrants. It may be surprising to think of a city branding itself, but local governments often work with private nonprofits to shape and manage their city’s image. They try to build a unique and desirable identity for the city, differentiate it from competitors, and attract new businesses, residents and tourists this way.

    Here are three reasons why Detroit and other cities want to welcome immigrants:

    1. Encouraging economic growth and attracting talent

    Immigration has a positive impact on the economy, research shows.

    Local leaders in Detroit recognize that in a global economy, a thriving industrial sector and robust labor market are linked to the contributions of immigrant communities. They also understand that the growth of these communities brings positive economic ripple effects.

    Immigrants are more likely than the general population to own their own businesses. Organizations such as Global Detroit encourage entrepreneurship through programs such as the Global Talent Retention Initiative, Global Talent Accelerator and Global Entrepreneur in Residence and provide resources for small businesses.

    Immigrants also fill labor needs, from high-tech fields such as engineering and research to manual labor sectors such as construction and food service.

    The City of Detroit Office of Immigrant Affairs promotes economic development and immigrant integration through education, English as a second language programs, economic empowerment and community resources.

    These efforts are paying off by attracting immigrants to the city.

    This economic impact extends to tourism as well. The region’s marketing campaigns embracing diversity shape how visitors perceive the region. The Detroit Metro Convention & Visitors Bureau spotlights the unique experiences the city’s diverse neighborhoods offer to tourists.

    2. Enhancing community and regional resilience

    Regional resilience describes a region’s ability to withstand and adapt to challenges such as economic shocks and natural disasters. Cities like Detroit that are still trying to bounce back from deindustrialization know from experience how critical this is.

    Immigration contributes to regional resilience, research shows. In addition to supporting local economies and strengthening the labor force, the arrival of immigrants in Detroit has helped offset native-born population decline, stabilizing the overall population and bolstering local tax bases.

    According to our analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro area grew by 1.2%, from a total population of 4,291,843 in 2010 to 4,342,304 in 2023.

    According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the Detroit metro area’s native-born population decreased by 58,693 people during that 13-year period, while the foreign-born population increased by 109,154. The top five countries of origin for immigrants in the metro area are India, Iraq, Mexico, Yemen and Lebanon.

    From 2023 to 2024, the metro area’s population gained 40,347 immigrants and lost 11,626 native born residents – resulting in a population gain of 28,721.

    Efforts to welcome immigrants in Detroit and its surrounding communities contributed to this trend of immigrant population growth offsetting overall population decline.

    3. Promoting social cohesion and enhanced civic engagement

    Successful place brands are rooted in inclusion and a strong civil society. Detroit’s rich tapestry of cultures in areas such as Dearborn and Hamtramck creates a vibrant regional identity.

    Organizations such as Global Detroit’s Welcoming Michigan actively support local grassroots efforts to build mutual respect and ensure that immigrants are able to participate fully in the social, civic and economic fabric of their hometowns.

    Examples include Global Detroit’s Social Cohesion Initiative, Common Bond and Opportunity Neighborhoods. These initiatives help bring neighborhood residents of various backgrounds together to share their cultures, support each other’s small businesses and socialize. Such programs strengthen the region’s democratic foundations and enhance its appeal as a welcoming and inclusive place to live.

    Forging a way forward

    Detroit has found that welcoming immigrants and integrating them into the life of the city is one way to navigate the economic, political and cultural challenges it faces.

    And it is not alone in embracing this strategy. Other cities practicing similar strategies include Baltimore; Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina; Dallas; Dayton, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; Roanoke, Virginia; and Salt Lake City.

    Although not all cities choose to pursue such strategies, in those that do, local leaders signal a region ready for a globalized future.

    Paul N. McDaniel previously received funding from the National Geographic Society, served on the Content Advisory Board for the Welcoming Standard and on the Steering Committee for Welcoming America’s One Region Initiative, and is a member of the American Association of Geographers.

    Darlene Xiomara Rodriguez was co-PI on funding received from the National Geographic Society and served on the national pilot program with Welcoming America One Region Initiative’s Steering Committee and Program Evaluation Team.

    – ref. Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline – https://theconversation.com/detroits-population-grew-in-2023-2024-a-strategy-to-welcome-immigrants-helps-explain-the-turnaround-from-decades-of-population-decline-255557

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How trafficked American guns fuel Mexico’s cartel violence – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    More than two thirds of guns recovered at Mexican crime scenes originate in the U.S. For decades, Mexico has struggled with staggering levels of gun violence fueled in large part by weapons trafficked across its northern border.

    Now an investigation published by The Conversation has arrived at a new estimate of the scale of this illicit gun trade between the U.S. and Mexico in 2022: 135,000 guns.

    Investigative journalist Sean Campbell and Topher McDougal, a professor of economic development at the University of San Diego, spent a year combing through multiple databases and court documents and conducting interviews to understand how the flow of guns works.

    Their investigation reveals where in the U.S. the guns are coming from, what impact these American guns are having in Mexico, and how difficult it is for American law enforcement agencies to prosecute those trafficking guns across the border.

    Listen to Campbell and McDougal talk about their investigation on The Conversation Weekly podcast.

    You can read the full investigation here.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware. Mixing and sound design by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

    Newsclips in this episode from PBS News, CGTN, France24, ABC 7 and NewsNation.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available on Apple Podcasts.

    Sean Campbell and Topher McDougal do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations.

    – ref. How trafficked American guns fuel Mexico’s cartel violence – podcast – https://theconversation.com/how-trafficked-american-guns-fuel-mexicos-cartel-violence-podcast-256746

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From working class pubs to sold-out stadiums: how darts has become a major international sport

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Joshua McLeod, Senior Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin University

    Few sports have witnessed a transformation as dramatic as darts in recent years.

    From its origins as a pub game stereotypically played with cigarette and beer in hand, darts is now serious business.

    With surging television ratings and huge demand for live events, the growth of darts continues to leave many sports looking on in envy.

    There has been a combination of factors at play – not least one exceptionally prodigious teenager. Before discussing those factors, it’s worth taking a closer look at the numbers.

    Becoming big business

    Darts sits alongside a select few sports to have achieved significant commercial growth over the past decade.

    While not at the scale of sports such as the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and Formula 1, the rise of darts has been prolific.

    In the United Kingdom, a record-breaking peak of 3.7 million viewers watched the 2024 Professional Darts Corporation (PDC) World Championship final. It was Sky Sports’ highest-ever non-soccer broadcast.

    In addition to the PDC World Championship – the sport’s premier knockout event – viewership records were also broken across the 2024 Premier League Darts season, a league-format competition featuring weekly fixtures between top-ranked players.

    On the UK’s Sky Sports, the 15 most-watched nights in the competition’s history all occurred that year.

    The PDC World Championship and Premier League Darts sit alongside the World Matchplay as the “Triple Crown” of most important darts events.

    Outside the UK, darts viewership also continues to grow.

    The Netherlands remains a strong and expanding heartland, while in Germany, viewership for the World Championship final has increased eightfold since 2008.

    In Australia, precise viewing figures are not widely available, but the Foxtel Group’s landmark four-year deal with the PDC in 2023 suggests rising demand.

    Surging audiences are translating into significantly larger broadcast deals.

    In 2025, Sky Sports reportedly outbid Netflix to secure a new £125 million (A$260.3 million) deal for exclusive UK coverage of the PDC for 2026–30. That was double the size of the previous deal.

    In contrast, many other sports face stagnation or even sharp declines in media rights value.

    For instance, the UK Super League rugby’s rights on Sky Sports fell from £40 million (A$83.3 million) per season in 2021 to £21.5 million (A$44.5 million) in 2024.

    Similarly, in soccer, the French Ligue 1’s TV deal with DAZN collapsed due to underwhelming subscriber numbers. Meanwhile, ESPN walked away from its long-standing agreement with Major League Baseball after unsuccessfully trying to cut its US$550 million (A$848 million) annual payment down to $200 million (A$309 million).

    Prize money in darts has also exploded.

    Next year, the winner of the two-week long World Championship will bank £1 million (A$2.08 million) – doubling this year’s purse.

    The prize money was £60,000 (A$124,960) in 2005, representing a 1,567% increase over 20 years.

    Tickets are also hot property. Premier League and World Championship sessions often sell out within minutes worldwide: the UK, Bahrain, New York and even Wollongong have become key stops in darts’ international calendar.

    The recipe for success

    Like Formula 1 and the UFC, darts benefits from being privately operated.

    Without the typical bureaucracy and conflicting interests seen in many traditional sport governing bodies, the PDC can respond more quickly to audience preferences and market opportunities.

    This streamlined, commercially driven approach has been key to darts’ growth.

    The sport has been expertly tailored to modern audiences.

    One of darts’ best-known selling points is the live event experience. The entertainment-first approach is known for loud music, the showmanship of player walk-ons, fancy dress from the crowd and yes, often plenty of alcohol.

    The lines are blurred between sport and party and fans love it.

    Culturally, darts is seen by many as fun, relatable, and rooted in working-class culture. After all, its heritage is in the pub.

    Darts is ideally suited to modern sport media consumption habits: PLD matches last only 20–30 minutes and the up-close TV product works perfectly for social media highlight clips.

    It is also one of the few sports where women compete directly against men.

    This adds another layer of interest for fans and has helped elevate stars such as Fallon Sherrock, who made headlines in 2019 by becoming the first woman to win a match at the PDC World Championship, eventually reaching the final 32.

    A prodigy emerges

    The so-called “Littler Effect” has given darts’ profile a significant boost.

    The emergence of talented teenager Luke Littler has broken new ground for the sport and drawn global interest.

    The English prodigy, who has quickly risen to fame, is by far the sport’s biggest star, but it would be unfair to say darts is a one-man band.

    Luke Humphries and Michael van Gerwen enjoy significant profiles while Phil Taylor is regarded as the sport’s greatest player. Australia’s Simon “The Wizard” Whitlock also forged a successful career.

    There is also colourful two-time world champion Peter Wright.

    Where to from here?

    The success of darts reveals much about modern sports audiences and their preferences.

    Darts does not rely on traditional ideas of athletic excellence, nor does it fit the Olympic ideal.

    Yet, darts is thriving while many traditional sports are stagnating.

    Darts’ success stems from remaining authentic to its working-class roots while evolving into an engaging commercial product suited for television, short-form content and digital media.

    For darts to fully achieve its global potential, the next step has to be continued international growth. Although it has grown steadily in markets like Australia and throughout Asia, the UK remains darts’ dominant base.

    As the global sports marketplace becomes more fragmented and competitive, darts is well positioned to continue growing.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From working class pubs to sold-out stadiums: how darts has become a major international sport – https://theconversation.com/from-working-class-pubs-to-sold-out-stadiums-how-darts-has-become-a-major-international-sport-254807

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Young men on South Africa’s urban margins: new book follows their lives over 10 years

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Hannah J. Dawson, Senior Lecturer, Anthropology and Development Studies, University of Johannesburg

    South Africa’s young people, aged 15 to 34, who make up more than 50% of the country’s working age population, bear a disproportionate burden of unemployment. They have done so for more than a decade. Of this group, those aged 15-24 face the highest barriers to the job market, according to data from Statistics South Africa. The majority of these young people live in the townships and informal settlements.

    A new book, Making a Life: Young Men on Johannesburg’s Urban Margins, examines how young people in Zandspruit, an informal settlement on the outskirts of Johannesburg, make a life. Anthropologist Hannah Dawson explains why she chose Zandspruit for her research and shares her findings about the sociopolitical landscape of urban settlements.

    Why the choice of Zandspruit for your research?

    It started with my arrival there in 2011 to study a wave of political protests during local elections. This sparked a much longer research journey spanning more than a decade, which this book traces.

    The settlement was established in the early 1990s and has grown into a densely populated area of around 50,000 people, across 14 pieces of land.

    The expansion of Zandspruit reflects broader trends in post-apartheid South Africa: rapid urbanisation, inadequate urban housing, rising unemployment and underemployment — including a shift from permanent to casual work, and from formal to informal employment.

    What sets Zandspruit apart is its location. It is near post-apartheid economic hubs such as Kya Sands, with its light industries and business parks, and Lanseria Airport, a growing freight and logistics hub earmarked for expansion under the Greater Lanseria Masterplan. It also borders affluent suburbs and golf estates. This makes it distinct from older, more isolated settlements in Johannesburg’s south. Its proximity to shopping malls, townhouse complexes, warehouses and commercial zones makes it a destination of choice for migrants. They include people seeking a foothold in the urban market from rural areas of South Africa as well as people from other parts of the African continent.

    This proximity makes Zandspruit a case study for understanding how residents access urban job markets, and the connections between wage and non-wage economic activities.

    What do your findings tell us about the lives of young people?

    The book draws on research primarily with young men, whose work and lives I followed over ten years. It shows how young men on the urban margins navigate structural unemployment and inequality by forging social ties, asserting belonging, and pursuing alternative livelihoods within what I call Zandspruit’s “redistributive economy”. I use the phrase “making a life” to move beyond survival or income generation. A life is not only about securing food and shelter. It involves the pursuit of social connection, identity, place and dignity.

    For many of the young men I came to know, this often involved turning down demeaning jobs in favour of self-initiated income strategies that offered greater autonomy. These included renting out shacks, running internet cafes or car washes, or operating as mashonisas (unregistered loan sharks). Such efforts reflect more than personal resilience – they reveal how men’s social position and connections within the settlement shape access to the more lucrative niches of the local economy.

    These dynamics point to a broader condition facing young people in South Africa: deep and persistent material insecurity. Yet, they also show the ways in which young people, especially young men, are actively building lives in the face of profound uncertainty. They are crafting meaning and striving for something more in a context marked by chronic unemployment and inequality.

    What did you learn about urban inequality and living on the urban margins?

    The residents of Zandspruit are not equally poor or marginalised. A focus of the book is the division between “insiders” – long-term residents with access to property who earn rental income – and “outsiders” – new arrivals and immigrants who, as tenants, are more dependent on low-paid jobs. These distinctions shape access to land, housing, livelihoods and local recognition.

    Most immigrants form a precarious tenant class, while landlords tend to be established residents with long-standing ties to the settlement. Zandspruit is a deeply stratified space where social connections, property access and local citizenship determine who belongs and who benefits. By tracing men’s positions as insiders or outsiders, the book shows how these inequalities shape their economic strategies and capacity to build a life on the urban margins.

    What do you recommend in terms of public policy?

    The book doesn’t make policy recommendations. However, it speaks to key public and policy debates. Media and policy narratives often portray unemployed youth as idle and disconnected from society, ignoring the complex, often invisible, economic activities and arrangements that structure their lives. While informal and unstable, these pursuits reflect resourcefulness, local knowledge, and a conscious rejection of degrading labour.

    It challenges the idea that informal entrepreneurship can solve youth unemployment. Most enterprises are too precarious to lift young people out of poverty. It also questions the notion that informal settlements are simply ghettos of exclusion and poverty. Instead, it highlights the inequalities within the settlement and calls for greater attention to be paid to the local economies and social orders being forged within these spaces. Understanding these dynamics is crucial to rethinking how we respond to unemployment, the urban housing crisis and inequality in South Africa.

    Hannah J. Dawson received funding from the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission and the National Research Foundation.

    – ref. Young men on South Africa’s urban margins: new book follows their lives over 10 years – https://theconversation.com/young-men-on-south-africas-urban-margins-new-book-follows-their-lives-over-10-years-257026

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The button was pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the New South Wales Senate today. All analysts expected Labor to win the final seat, for a three Labor, two Coalition, one Green result. Instead, One Nation won the final seat, for a two Labor, two Coalition, one Green and one One Nation result. This is a One Nation gain from the Coalition.

    Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election. State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1.

    Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.

    Final primary votes in NSW gave Labor 2.63 quotas, the Coalition 2.06, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, Trumpet of Patriots 0.17, the Libertarians 0.13 and Family First 0.11. One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.89 quotas to 0.87.

    Labor was hurt by the Greens being well short of quota, and getting preferences from left sources that would otherwise have gone to Labor, while right-wing parties united behind One Nation. The Greens only crossed quota at the second last count, and their small surplus wasn’t enough for Labor to catch One Nation.

    I covered Senate results from other states and territories earlier and this week.

    In the later piece, I talked about the two-party count. This isn’t finished yet in NSW or Victoria, but one side of politics usually needs about 57% of the two-party vote in a state to win four of the six senators (four quotas). This is very difficult to achieve.

    In Tasmania, Labor won the two-party count by over 63–37, but missed out on three senators owing to Jacqui Lambie. In South Australia, Labor won by over 59–41 and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Victoria, Labor leads by nearly 57–43, and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Western Australia and NSW, Labor won by less than 56–44 and the Senate was tied 3–3 between left and right.

    Out of the 40 Senate seats that were up at this election, Labor won 16 (up three), the Coalition 13 (down five), the Greens six (steady), One Nation three (up two) and Lambie and David Pocock one each (both steady). The Coalition lost senators in all mainland states, with Labor gaining in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, and One Nation in NSW and WA.

    The 36 state senators elected in 2022 won’t be up for election until 2028. For the whole Senate, Labor has 28 out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation four and there are six others. Labor will need either the Greens or the Coalition to reach the 39 votes needed for a Senate majority.

    In 2022, the United Australia Party (UAP) won a seat in Victoria. During the last term, Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tammy Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network. The six others are these four, Pocock and Lambie.

    Counting Thorpe, Payman and Pocock as left and the UAP as right, the left overall has a 42–32 Senate majority, with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).

    National Senate primaries and results by state

    Nationally, Labor won 35.1% of the Senate vote (up 5.0% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.7% (up 1.4%), Legalise Cannabis 3.5% (up 0.2%), Trumpet of Patriots 2.6% and Family First 1.5%.

    Labor won 34.6% nationally in the House of Representatives, so their Senate vote was 0.5% higher than in the House. It’s likely the lack of a Teal option helped Labor in the Senate.

    This table shows the senators elected in each state and territory in 2025, with the seat share and vote share at the bottom. Despite the losses in NSW and WA, Labor and the Greens are overrepresented in the Senate relative to vote share.

    Others are greatly underrepresented, but this is because most other parties are either left or right-wing, and their preferences go to Labor, the Greens, the Coalition or One Nation rather than to more others.

    For the combined left to lose control of the Senate in 2028, they would need to lose four seats. The only seat that looks vulnerable is the WA seat won by Payman for Labor in 2022. Even if the Coalition wins in 2028, the Senate is likely to be hostile to the Coalition.

    At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election at the same time. If the Coalition wins in 2028, a double dissolution would be an option to seek to change a hostile Senate.

    Preference distributions for WA and Queensland

    Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19.

    One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.90 quotas to 0.86. When the Nationals were excluded, the Liberals got a large surplus. As in Victoria, Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation over Labor and Legalise Cannabis.

    But Legalise Cannabis preferences were not as good for Labor as in Victoria, with Labor winning these preferences by 13 points over One Nation, rather than 24 points in Victoria.

    Final Queensland primary votes gave the Liberal National Party 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25.

    Both the Greens and One Nation easily reached a quota on the distribution of preferences, with Rennick finishing far behind on 0.55 quotas.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat – https://theconversation.com/shock-nsw-senate-result-as-one-nation-beats-labor-to-win-final-seat-257888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: GPs will be a great help for managing ADHD medications. But many patients will still need specialists

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Guastella, Professor and Clinical Psychologist, Michael Crouch Chair in Child and Youth Mental Health, University of Sydney

    The New South Wales government this week announced reforms that will allow some GPs to treat and potentially diagnose attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    This aims to make ADHD care more accessible and less expensive and follows changes in Western Australia and Queensland, which have increased GPs’ role in diagnosing and prescribing for ADHD.

    Previously, only specialists (usually paediatricians and psychiatrists) could diagnose ADHD and prescribe the most commonly used ADHD stimulant medications.

    This reform comes on the back of evidence of extensive wait times for ADHD care and costs too high for many people.

    But while up-skilling GPs to treat ADHD will benefit many patients, some people with more complex cases will still need to see a specialist.

    What’s planned for NSW?

    Under this new framework, the NSW government proposes a two-stage plan.

    In phase one, around 1,000 GPs will be trained to support the ongoing prescribing of ADHD medications.

    In phase two a smaller number, about 100 GPs, will receive more intensive training to conduct ADHD assessments, make diagnoses and initiate ADHD medications.

    For phase two the initial focus will be on children and adolescents and then the trial will extend to adults.

    Why a diagnosis is crucial for people with ADHD

    The recent Senate inquiry into ADHD highlighted growing awareness about the daily struggles of people with ADHD across Australia.

    People with ADHD have serious difficulties with attention, impulsivity and hyperactivity, which impact across the lifespan and many settings where people live, learn, work and play.

    ADHD is linked to many poor outcomes and is even associated with higher rates of accidental injury and death.

    ADHD treatments, such as stimulant medication, has been shown be safe, effective and to substantially lower risks of negative outcomes. But to receive these treatments, a person needs to first receive a diagnosis.

    GPs can play an important role managing ADHD

    There is also no question that GPs are more accessible than specialists, both in terms of availability and cost.

    They already provide ongoing management for a wide range of chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity. They are highly skilled in monitoring outcomes and adjusting treatments.

    With the right training, they bring many transferable skills to ADHD care. Increasing their ability to take over ongoing prescribing for people diagnosed and stabilised on treatment is low risk and has shown to be effective in a range of studies.

    However, although the proposal to increase the role of GPs in ADHD care is a step in the right direction, it is not without challenges.

    GPs may struggle to assess complex patients

    Collaborative care involves general practitioners working with specialists and specialist teams to provide care. If GPs don’t have specialists to rely on for expert advice about ongoing management, many will choose not to provide ADHD care. Ongoing support and strong links between specialist and primary care services will be essential.

    GPs may also struggle to assess and diagnose complex cases.

    The vast majority of people with ADHD will have other mental health conditions, but some of these other conditions (such as anxiety conditions) can also result in symptoms that appear like ADHD.

    For these complex situations, specialist services with multidisciplinary teams of doctors and allied health providers (such as psychologists and occupational therapists) will still be needed.



    Read more:
    Wondering about ADHD, autism and your child’s development? What to know about getting a neurodevelopmental assessment

    To ensure high-quality care and reduce the potential for misdiagnosis and incorrect treatment, it will be even more important that specialists are available to provide additional services when required.

    There is little detail currently in the NSW proposal about how specialist multidisciplinary services will be supported to ensure this happens. And funding models for this will need to be established to support existing guidelines.

    Bringing GPs into the assessment and diagnosis to initiate treatment is positive but comes with added pressures to manage assessment and treatment.

    There are many cases in the media of poor diagnostic process, where patients were misdiagnosed with conditions such as ADHD after inadequate assessments. These practices may be driven by financial rewards and a poor application of evidence-based guidelines.

    Sometimes teams of clinicians and allied health providers will be needed for a diagnosis.
    Alex and Maria photo/Shutterstock

    Could this lead to over-diagnosis? Or correct under-diagnosis?

    In Australia, the debate about whether ADHD is under- or over-diagnosed is ongoing. There reality is that there is almost certainly a mixture of both.

    The real rates of ADHD are estimated at around 7% in Australian children and 2.5% in adults. While these rates have remained stable for many years, the rates of clinical diagnosis and treatment have increased dramatically, particularly in young women.

    Around 6% of children and adolescents currently receive ADHD medications, similar to the actual rates of ADHD in the population. For adults, the rates of ADHD medication use remain low for those over 45 years. For those between 18 and 44 years, rates now sit at around 2%.

    One interpretation of these figures is that most children, adolescents and adults with ADHD are now getting the support they need.

    However, if we remember the strong evidence that many Australians are struggling to access ADHD care, particularly in under-resourced, regional and remote areas, the more likely answer is that a combination of “misdiagnosis” and “missed diagnosis” means that sometimes diagnoses are not done correctly.

    This highlights the importance of focusing on the need for accurate assessment as the cornerstone of high quality ADHD care. In its answer to the question of who should assess and diagnose ADHD, the Australian ADHD guideline focuses on training and skills rather than which profession conducts the assessment.

    There is no reason that GPs cannot develop these skills, but they will require adequate training and ongoing support to do so, and they will need time to commit to these assessments.

    Finally, we need to make sure medication is not the only option available. Research shows ADHD medications provide effective treatment. But they should never be the only form of treatment offered.

    Sadly, reports show medical treatments are relied upon more frequently in more disadvantaged communities where access to other supports can be difficult.

    These reforms will do little to increase access to psychological and allied health supports to ensure the right care can be provided to people with ADHD.



    Read more:
    GPs could improve access to ADHD treatment. But we still need specialists to diagnose and start medication

    Adam Guastella receives funding from the NSW Government for the evaluation of mental health supports provided to children and families in health services. He has received funding from research agencies (ARC, NHMRC, MRFF) for the evaluation of assessment and supports related to neurodevelopmental conditions and for independent and sponsored clinical trials for the evaluation medical and psychological therapies. He is affiliated with Neurodevelopment Australia.

    David Coghill has been a consultant for with Takeda, Medice, Servier, Novartis. He receives research funding from the NHMRC and royalties from Oxford University Press and Cambridge University Press. He is the president of Australasian ADHD Professional Association.

    – ref. GPs will be a great help for managing ADHD medications. But many patients will still need specialists – https://theconversation.com/gps-will-be-a-great-help-for-managing-adhd-medications-but-many-patients-will-still-need-specialists-257610

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong

    On Sunday, Mexico will hold an unprecedented election, becoming the first country in the world to allow voters to elect judges at every level.

    Voters will elect approximately half the judges in the country on June 1 – from the nine members of the Supreme Court down to 850 federal judges and thousands more at lower levels. In 2027, a second vote will see the rest of Mexico’s judiciary elected.

    As part of the overhaul, the country’s merit-based, career judiciary system will be abolished. Instead, all judges will serve nine-year terms, renewable by popular vote.

    The election had been championed by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador and embraced by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October.

    Sheinbaum has proclaimed Mexico will be “the most democratic country in the world” because the people will now choose all three branches of government.

    Critics are not so sure. Some are calling the process a cynical farce. Others warn it will concentrate power in Morena, the ruling party, and its political allies, dismantling the country’s system of checks and balances.

    Critics also warn that inexperienced judges could be elected, or those who could be influenced by organised crime. Some candidates themselves have been investigated for crimes, and at least two are former defence attorneys for drug cartels.

    Former president Ernesto Zedillo, currently director at the Yale Centre for the Study of Globalisation, has gone so far as to declare that democracy itself “has come to an end” in Mexico.

    Why reform the judiciary?

    During his time in office from 2018–2024, López Obrador waged a rhetorical battle with Mexico’s courts, accusing judges of serving the elites and blocking his agenda.

    In truth, what irked López Obrador was the fact the courts wielded the power to review and restrain his actions through constitutional oversight.

    Sheinbaum seems to share his hostility towards the judiciary. Arturo Zaldívar, a former Supreme Court chief justice who designed the judicial reform system and later joined Sheinbaum’s cabinet, has accused the outgoing chief justice, Norma Piña, of being “a force of opposition allied with the oligarchy”.

    In September 2024, Morena used its congressional super-majority to ram through a series of constitutional amendments to enact the judicial reform.

    In response, judges walked off the job. Court staff, lawyers and law students took to the streets in support of their strike, some carrying banners reading “justice is not a popularity contest”.

    Experts note the reform does nothing to fix Mexico’s real justice problems – the rampant corruption and abuse that plagues the system. The institutions that allow criminals to act with impunity are not the courts, but the prosecutors and police.

    Human Rights Watch reports that nearly half of Mexicans have “little or very little confidence” in the country’s justice authorities. Nine in ten Mexicans don’t even bother to report crimes.

    The perils of judicial elections

    Electing judges is an idea fraught with peril. International human rights law treats an independent judiciary as a basic human right. Article 8 of the 1978 American Convention on Human Rights – an international treaty for North, Central and South America – guarantees every person “a hearing by a competent, independent and impartial tribunal.”

    Popular elections invite precisely the opposite. As UN experts caution, election campaigns will inevitably inject “political loyalty or alignment with party interests” into judge selection, rather than competence and impartiality.

    In addition, leading legal theorists have long warned that politicising the judiciary undermines the rule of law.

    US jurist Ronald Dworkin argued judges must decide according to principles – not political winds. Italian jurist Luigi Ferrajoli’s notion of a “guarantee-based” democracy – which is hugely influential in Latin America – likewise insists judges be insulated from party bargaining.

    Even in the United States, where some states hold judicial elections, scholars lament their corrosive effects.

    As one study notes:

    Wealthy people and corporations can pump lots of money […] to elect and reelect judges who decide cases the way they want.

    Opponents of billionaire Elon Musk critiqued his decision this year to pour US$21 million (A$33 million) into the campaign of a conservative candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In a comment he posted on X, Musk said he didn’t expect to win but “there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.”

    Bolivia offers another cautionary tale. Beginning in 2011, Bolivia has held elections for the judges on its top courts in an effort to “decolonise” the justice system and fight corruption.

    In practice, though, only judges pre-approved by the ruling party’s congressional majority make the ballot. Voters, too, know little about the candidates. Turnout is very low.

    Courts increasingly under attack

    Mexico’s justice system, indeed, needs reform. But its multiple problems will not be solved with the wholesale politicisation of the courts.

    As Argentine scholar Roberto Gargarella bluntly observes, electing judges in this way is “one of the greatest institutional tragedies of our time.”

    Mexico’s reform effort threatens to turn the courts into just another party apparatus. In that sense, Mexico joins a disturbing global trend. From Washington to Brasília, populist leaders are increasingly attacking the courts as the enemies of the people.

    With courts in Mexico potentially beholden to the government or influenced by organised crime, neutral judges may become much harder to find. If history teaches anything, it’s that the night of authoritarianism grows darker when the last judges are gone.

    Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite – https://theconversation.com/will-elections-for-judges-make-mexico-the-most-democratic-country-in-the-world-critics-fear-the-opposite-257730

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong

    On Sunday, Mexico will hold an unprecedented election, becoming the first country in the world to allow voters to elect judges at every level.

    Voters will elect approximately half the judges in the country on June 1 – from the nine members of the Supreme Court down to 850 federal judges and thousands more at lower levels. In 2027, a second vote will see the rest of Mexico’s judiciary elected.

    As part of the overhaul, the country’s merit-based, career judiciary system will be abolished. Instead, all judges will serve nine-year terms, renewable by popular vote.

    The election had been championed by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador and embraced by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October.

    Sheinbaum has proclaimed Mexico will be “the most democratic country in the world” because the people will now choose all three branches of government.

    Critics are not so sure. Some are calling the process a cynical farce. Others warn it will concentrate power in Morena, the ruling party, and its political allies, dismantling the country’s system of checks and balances.

    Critics also warn that inexperienced judges could be elected, or those who could be influenced by organised crime. Some candidates themselves have been investigated for crimes, and at least two are former defence attorneys for drug cartels.

    Former president Ernesto Zedillo, currently director at the Yale Centre for the Study of Globalisation, has gone so far as to declare that democracy itself “has come to an end” in Mexico.

    Why reform the judiciary?

    During his time in office from 2018–2024, López Obrador waged a rhetorical battle with Mexico’s courts, accusing judges of serving the elites and blocking his agenda.

    In truth, what irked López Obrador was the fact the courts wielded the power to review and restrain his actions through constitutional oversight.

    Sheinbaum seems to share his hostility towards the judiciary. Arturo Zaldívar, a former Supreme Court chief justice who designed the judicial reform system and later joined Sheinbaum’s cabinet, has accused the outgoing chief justice, Norma Piña, of being “a force of opposition allied with the oligarchy”.

    In September 2024, Morena used its congressional super-majority to ram through a series of constitutional amendments to enact the judicial reform.

    In response, judges walked off the job. Court staff, lawyers and law students took to the streets in support of their strike, some carrying banners reading “justice is not a popularity contest”.

    Experts note the reform does nothing to fix Mexico’s real justice problems – the rampant corruption and abuse that plagues the system. The institutions that allow criminals to act with impunity are not the courts, but the prosecutors and police.

    Human Rights Watch reports that nearly half of Mexicans have “little or very little confidence” in the country’s justice authorities. Nine in ten Mexicans don’t even bother to report crimes.

    The perils of judicial elections

    Electing judges is an idea fraught with peril. International human rights law treats an independent judiciary as a basic human right. Article 8 of the 1978 American Convention on Human Rights – an international treaty for North, Central and South America – guarantees every person “a hearing by a competent, independent and impartial tribunal.”

    Popular elections invite precisely the opposite. As UN experts caution, election campaigns will inevitably inject “political loyalty or alignment with party interests” into judge selection, rather than competence and impartiality.

    In addition, leading legal theorists have long warned that politicising the judiciary undermines the rule of law.

    US jurist Ronald Dworkin argued judges must decide according to principles – not political winds. Italian jurist Luigi Ferrajoli’s notion of a “guarantee-based” democracy – which is hugely influential in Latin America – likewise insists judges be insulated from party bargaining.

    Even in the United States, where some states hold judicial elections, scholars lament their corrosive effects.

    As one study notes:

    Wealthy people and corporations can pump lots of money […] to elect and reelect judges who decide cases the way they want.

    Opponents of billionaire Elon Musk critiqued his decision this year to pour US$21 million (A$33 million) into the campaign of a conservative candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In a comment he posted on X, Musk said he didn’t expect to win but “there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.”

    Bolivia offers another cautionary tale. Beginning in 2011, Bolivia has held elections for the judges on its top courts in an effort to “decolonise” the justice system and fight corruption.

    In practice, though, only judges pre-approved by the ruling party’s congressional majority make the ballot. Voters, too, know little about the candidates. Turnout is very low.

    Courts increasingly under attack

    Mexico’s justice system, indeed, needs reform. But its multiple problems will not be solved with the wholesale politicisation of the courts.

    As Argentine scholar Roberto Gargarella bluntly observes, electing judges in this way is “one of the greatest institutional tragedies of our time.”

    Mexico’s reform effort threatens to turn the courts into just another party apparatus. In that sense, Mexico joins a disturbing global trend. From Washington to Brasília, populist leaders are increasingly attacking the courts as the enemies of the people.

    With courts in Mexico potentially beholden to the government or influenced by organised crime, neutral judges may become much harder to find. If history teaches anything, it’s that the night of authoritarianism grows darker when the last judges are gone.

    Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite – https://theconversation.com/will-elections-for-judges-make-mexico-the-most-democratic-country-in-the-world-critics-fear-the-opposite-257730

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is mantle cell lymphoma? Magda Szubanski’s ‘rare and fast-moving’ cancer, explained

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John (Eddie) La Marca, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

    Lisa Maree Williams/Getty

    Beloved Australian actor, Magda Szubanski, has revealed she’s been diagnosed with a “very rare, very aggressive, very serious” blood cancer called mantle cell lymphoma.

    In a post on social media on Thursday, Szubanski said she would be starting treatment in a few weeks for the stage 4 cancer, which she called “one of the nasty ones, unfortunately”.

    So, what is mantle cell lymphoma? And how is it treated?

    What is mantle cell lymphoma?

    There are more than 100 subtypes of blood cancers, but they are commonly divided into one of two groups. These are based on where they originate: leukaemias develop in the bone marrow, and lymphomas develop in the lymphatic system.

    Lymphomas develop from white blood cells (lymphocytes), which circulate in the blood and lymphatic system and help fight infection.

    You may not have heard of the lymphatic system, but it plays a key role in your immune response.

    The lymphatic circulatory system is responsible for transporting fluids (lymph) around your body. Lymph comes from blood plasma, and helps remove waste from your tissues.

    As part of the lymphatic system, tissues like the spleen and thymus help produce many of the immune cells you use to fight infections.

    These cells are then housed in specialised organs called lymph nodes – small pea-sized glands located throughout your body.

    The lymphatic system plays a key role in your body’s immune response.
    Clash_Gene/Shutterstock

    Lymph nodes are kind of like the “war room” of your immune system.

    Your body contains hundreds of lymph nodes, and each contains millions of lymphocytes. These include the T and B cells – the main fighting cells in adaptive immunity.

    If B cells in an area of the lymph node known as the “mantle zone” become cancerous, it is called mantle cell lymphoma.

    How rare is it?

    In 2020, there were 330 cases of mantle cell lymphoma diagnosed in Australia, accounting for a small fraction (5%) of lymphoma cases.

    Overall, lymphomas account for around one in twenty new cancer diagnoses. This makes mantle cell lymphoma quite rare.

    Mantle cell lymphoma is about three times more common in men than in women, and mostly affects people over the age of 60.

    Is there a cure?

    Unfortunately, mantle cell lymphoma is largely considered incurable with the therapies currently available.

    Like many cancers, mantle cell lymphoma can vary in how quickly it develops and its severity.

    As Szubanski’s cancer has been described as “fast-moving” and is already stage 4, it appears that it is a more serious case.

    Stage 4 is the most advanced stage – meaning the cancer has spread (metastasised) to other tissues.

    Treatment at this stage can be more complicated than when the cancer is caught earlier. But treatment can still help people go on to live for many years.

    What does treatment involve?

    In her social media post, Szubanski said she will be receiving “one of the best treatments available (the Nordic protocol)”.

    This is one of the most common treatments for an aggressive lymphoma.

    The main component is “R-CHOP” – a combination therapy. It involves a mixture of different drugs, including chemotherapy, to attack the cancer from multiple angles at the same time.

    Different strengths of the drugs can be used (the maximum strength is sometimes called R-maxi-CHOP).

    A stem cell transplantation may also be included in the regimen.

    How effective this treatment is will depend on many different factors, including the type and stage of the lymphoma.

    The aim is to kill as many cancer cells as possible, and therefore extend a patient’s life for as long as possible.

    Therapy also focuses on providing a high quality-of-life for patients.

    How is it diagnosed?

    Szubanski’s mantle cell lymphoma was detected during a breast cancer screen where, she says, “they found my lymph nodes were up”.

    Imaging techniques, such as a mammogram or MRI, may detect tell-tale signs of lymphoma, such as swollen lymph nodes.

    However a biopsy – a small sample of tissue from the affected area – would then be required to confirm the presence of cancer cells and identify what type.

    Blood cancer symptoms can be vague, but it’s good to know what to look for.

    As well as swollen lymph nodes, symptoms of lymphoma include nausea, tiredness, loss of appetite, fevers, gastrointestinal issues, unexplained weight loss, and night sweats.

    If you have any concerns, you should consult a doctor.

    John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

    Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

    – ref. What is mantle cell lymphoma? Magda Szubanski’s ‘rare and fast-moving’ cancer, explained – https://theconversation.com/what-is-mantle-cell-lymphoma-magda-szubanskis-rare-and-fast-moving-cancer-explained-257821

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tracking crime from the cradle: why some people keep breaking the law while most of us never do

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ayda Kuluk, PhD Candidate in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University

    Alena Lom/Shutterstock

    A major Australian study tracking more than 80,000 Queenslanders from birth to adulthood reveals stark differences between men and women in patterns of criminal behaviour.

    These patterns offer insights into effective crime prevention strategies.

    Our findings point to a clear takeaway: most people will never seriously come into contact with the criminal justice system. But for the small proportion who do, their paths into crime are shaped early and differently for men and women.

    That means crime prevention efforts need to start earlier and be tailored to the experiences of those most at risk.

    A rare opportunity

    Our research followed more than 83,000 people born in Queensland in 1983 and 1984, and linked their early life records with official police data to understand who offended and how their patterns changed over time.

    Few studies worldwide have followed such a large population from childhood through to early adulthood.

    This gave us a unique opportunity to examine not just if people committed crime but when, how often and the types and seriousness of their offences.

    Most people don’t offend but some do – repeatedly

    The clearest finding was also the most reassuring: the vast majority of people never commit serious offences.

    That means efforts to prevent crime can be more precisely targeted, ensuring interventions focus on a smaller, high-risk group rather than the general population.

    Non-offending was most prevalent, but five distinct offending groups for both men and women were identified.

    Among men, these ranged from those who rarely offended to a small group that started early and continued into adulthood, and another that mostly offended during adolescence but later stopped.

    In contrast, most women fell into the low or non-offending groups. Only a small proportion followed a pattern of serious or repeat offending.

    These trajectories were categorised as follows:

    Women:

    • non-offending: 79.9%
    • adolescent-limited low: 8.5%
    • adult-onset low: 8.6%
    • early adult-onset escalating: 1.3%
    • early onset young adult peak: 1.4%
    • chronic early adult peak: 0.4%

    Men:

    • non-offending: 54.4%
    • low: 31.0%
    • early adult-onset low: 6.5%
    • early onset young adult peak: 4.8%
    • chronic adolescent-onset: 2.2%
    • chronic early adult peak: 1.1%

    Among the women who did offend, there were notable differences compared to men – not just in frequency but in the types of offences, how often they had contact with police and their experience with youth detention.

    Patterns differ by sex

    For boys and young men, those in the persistent offending group had earlier and more frequent contact with police, were more likely to face serious charges and often experienced youth detention.

    For girls and young women, fewer entered the system overall but those with repeat contact showed distinct patterns: their offences tended to differ from those of men, with a greater focus on property-related crimes as well as drug and traffic violations, rather than the more frequent violent crimes seen among young men.

    While they were less likely to be detained, their level of system contact was higher than that of most men in the low offending group.

    These differences suggest sex shapes not just the likelihood of offending, but the nature of offending and how people interact with the justice system.

    One-size-fits-all crime prevention won’t work

    Our findings suggest a nuanced approach to crime prevention – one that recognises both the gendered nature of offending and the early life experiences that shape it.

    For boys and young men, this could mean early identification of behavioural issues, stronger support in schools and support to create stable, safe home environments.

    For girls and young women, more effective interventions might involve trauma-informed care (an approach that acknowledges past trauma and prioritises safety, trust and empowerment), along with tailored mental health support and services focused on recovery.

    These gender-sensitive approaches are not just about being fair, they’re about being effective and equitable. When we better understand the roots of offending behaviour, we can design policies that reduce it.

    Why early intervention matters

    It’s easy to think of crime as something that starts with a police report or a court appearance. But the conditions for offending, or avoiding it, are often set much earlier.

    Here are two real-life examples.

    What if we saw a child’s aggression at school not as “bad behaviour” but as a red flag for family violence at home? What if a teenage girl’s shoplifting was a symptom of trauma or mental illness?

    This research reinforces the value of early, targeted intervention.

    That doesn’t just mean more programs, it means smarter programs, ones that focus resources on those most at risk in ways that match their lived experience.

    Our study is one of the most comprehensive of its kind in Australia. It confirms that while most people never offend, a small group follow early, distinct pathways into crime.

    Recognising these patterns gives us a powerful opportunity: to design earlier and more targeted prevention. That means fewer people in the justice system and healthier, safer communities for everyone.

    If we want to stop crime before it starts, we need to start early, and we need to pay attention to the very different paths children may be on.

    Ayda Kuluk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tracking crime from the cradle: why some people keep breaking the law while most of us never do – https://theconversation.com/tracking-crime-from-the-cradle-why-some-people-keep-breaking-the-law-while-most-of-us-never-do-257130

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk promises more risky launches after sixth Starship failure

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

    What goes up must come down, and earlier this week yet another of SpaceX’s Starships, the biggest and most powerful type of rocket ever built, came back down to Earth in spectacular fashion. In the sky above the Indian Ocean, it exploded.

    This was the ninth test flight for the rocket, and the third catastrophic failure in a row, just this year.

    Is this what we should expect from the very ship some are counting on to take humans further than we’ve ever been in the solar system? Or does this failure point to deeper concerns within the broader program?

    A decade of development

    The Starship program from Elon Musk’s space technology company, SpaceX, has been in development for more than a decade now and has undergone many iterations in its overall design and goals.

    The Starship concept is based upon the SpaceX Raptor engines to be used in a multistage system. In a multistage rocket system, there are often two or three separate blocks with their own engine and fuel reserves. These are particularly important for leaving Earth’s orbit and travelling to the Moon, Mars and beyond.

    With Starship, the key factor is the ability to land and reuse vast amounts of the rocket stages again and again. The company’s Falcon 9 vehicles, which used this model, were fantastically successful.

    Initial tests of Starship began in 2018 with two low-altitude flights showing early success. Subsequent flights have faced numerous challenges with now four complete failures, two partial failures and three successes overall.

    Just two days ago, during the latest failed attempt, I watched alongside over 200 other space industry experts at the Australian Space Summit in Sydney. Broadcast live on a giant screen, the launch generated an excited buzz – which soon turned to reserved murmurs.

    Of course, designing and launching rockets is hard, and failures are to be expected. However, a third catastrophic failure within six months demands a pause for reflection.

    On this particular test flight, as Starship positioned itself for atmospheric re-entry, one of its 13 engines failed to ignite. Shortly after, a booster appeared to explode, leading to a complete loss of control. The rocket ultimately broke apart over the Indian Ocean, which tonnes of debris will now call home.

    Polluting Earth in pursuit of space

    We don’t know the exact financial cost of each test flight. But Musk has previously said it is about US$50–100 million.

    The exact environmental cost of the Starship program – and its repeated failures – is even harder to quantify.

    For example, a failed test flight in 2023 left the town of Port Isabel, Texas, which is located beside the launch site, shaking and covered in a thick cloud of dirt. Debris from the exploded rocket smashed cars. Residents told the New York Times they were terrified. They also had to clean up the mess from the flight.

    Then, in September 2024, SpaceX was fined by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for 14 separate incidents since 2022 where the launch facilities discharged polluted water into Texas waterways. Musk denied these claims.

    That same month, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed a fine of US$633,009 in civil penalties should be issued to SpaceX. This was on the grounds of using an unapproved launch control room and other violations during 2023. Musk denied these claims too and threatened to countersue the FAA for “regulatory overreach”.

    It’s unclear if this suit was ever filed.

    Two other failed launches in January and March this year also rained rocket debris over the Caribbean, and disrupted hundreds of commercial flights, including 80 which needed to be diverted and more than 400 requiring delayed takeoff to ensure they were entering safe air space.

    Success of different space programs

    Until last year, the FAA allowed SpaceX to try up to five Starship launches a year. This month, the figure was increased to 25.

    A lot can go wrong during a launch of a vehicle to space. And there is a long way to go until we can properly judge whether Starship successfully meets its mission goals.

    We can, however, look at past programs to understand typical success rates seen across different rocketry programs.

    The Saturn V rocket, the workhorse of the Apollo era, had a total of 13 launches, with only one partial failure. It underwent three full ground tests before flight.

    SpaceX’s own Falcon 9 rocket, has had more than 478 successful launches, only two in flight failures, one partial failure and one pre-flight destruction.

    The Antares rocket, by Orbital Sciences Corporation (later Orbital ATK and Northrop Grumman) launched a total of 18 times, with one failure.

    The Soyuz rocket, originally a Soviet expendable carrier rocket designed in the 1960s, launched a total of 32 times, with two failures.

    No sign of caution

    Of course, we can’t fairly compare all other rockets with the Starship. Its goals are certainly novel as a reusable heavy-class rocket.

    But this latest failure does raise some questions. Will the Starship program ever see success – and if so when? And what are the limits of our tolerance as a society to the pollution of Earth in the pursuit of the goal to space?

    For a rocketry program that’s moving so fast, developing novel and complex technology, and experiencing several repeated failures, many people might expect caution from now on. Musk, however, has other plans.

    Shortly after the most recent Starship failure, he announced on X (formerly Twitter, that the next test flights would occur at a faster pace: one every three to four weeks.

    Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elon Musk promises more risky launches after sixth Starship failure – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-promises-more-risky-launches-after-sixth-starship-failure-257726

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Most of Australia’s conservation efforts ignore climate risks – here are 3 fixes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yi Fei Chung, PhD Candidate in Environmental Policy, The University of Queensland

    Imagine replanting various native species only to have them die because the area is too hot or too dry. Or reconnecting woodland habitat only to lose large tracts to bushfire.

    Well, our new research suggests those scenarios are entirely possible.

    We analysed the two most common ways to prevent overall biodiversity loss on private land in Australia. We found these efforts largely ignore climate risks such as fire, heat, drought and floods.

    Climate change is already threatening the survival of species. Unless conservation efforts are made more resilient to climate change, Australia’s aim to to reverse biodiversity loss could fail.

    What we found

    We examined two types of biodiversity measures in Australia. One is “biodiversity offsets”, which aim to compensate for damage caused by development. The other is voluntary conservation programs, including “conservation covenants”.

    We analysed 77 policy documents underpinning nine biodiversity offset policies and 11 voluntary conservation programs.

    Of the 77 documents, 84% did not consider the impact of climate change. What’s more, only 44% of biodiversity offset policies and 27% of voluntary conservation programs considered climate risk. Even then, they often lacked detail or tools to translate policy into real action on the ground.

    The most common climate adaptation strategies were:

    • safeguarding climate refuges
    • connecting habitat so wildlife can escape extreme heat, fires or droughts
    • targeting funding
    • avoiding offset sites vulnerable to threats such as sea-level rise.

    But most documents lacked details on implementing these strategies.

    We suggest three practical steps to ensure conservation efforts deliver lasting results in a changing climate.

    Few private land conservation programs or biodiversity offset policies took climate change into account.
    Chung, Y. F., et al, (2025) Biological Conservation

    1. Identify and protect climate refuges

    Climate refuges are areas somewhat shielded from the effects of climate change. Gullies, sheltered slopes and forests with good water supplies can help species survive during heatwaves and droughts.

    These places can provide a lifeline for endangered species and prevent local extinctions. Species may shelter in these areas during climate extremes and recolonise well-connected habitats when conditions improve.

    Protecting climate refuges by restricting land clearing or other damaging activities is a common climate adaptation strategy. We found it featured in six policy documents supporting voluntary conservation programs and biodiversity offsets across Australia. But few policy documents explain where these places are or how to protect them.

    For example, the New South Wales Biodiversity Conservation Investment Strategy lists climate refuges as high-priority assets under threat. The strategy says future investment should target these areas.

    But we found no explanation of how investments would be prioritised, or where to find that information. Without this detail, mentioning climate refuges in policy documents is little more than having good intentions.

    To be effective, refuges need to be mapped, prioritised and supported with appropriate protections and incentives. Nature law reform must strengthen protection of climate refuges to prevent further loss.

    Conservation programs could also specifically incentivise landholders to protect or restore refuges on their properties.

    Here’s how to protect Australia’s native species from climate change (The Climate Council)

    2. Promote the actions that build resilience

    On the ground, conservation actions must adapt to climate change. That could mean doing things differently. For example, planting species more likely to survive future climates, or connecting habitat so wildlife can move to new areas.

    While these strategies are well established, we only found three policy documents that mention them. One is the Heritage Agreement policy in South Australia. This offers guidance and potential funding to help landholders implement these actions.

    As Australia’s nature laws are reformed, funding commitments and conservation guidelines need to follow suit.

    Financial incentives or technical support could be offered to landholders for activities that build resilience. Biodiversity offset policies could also mandate conservation actions that improve climate resilience at offset sites.

    3. Adapting to climate change needs to link policy to on-ground action

    Our research found a clear gap between high-level intent and guidelines for on-ground actions. If they don’t line up, then conservation efforts risk falling short. Field programs may lack legal backing, or legislation may not translate into action where it matters most.

    Climate change should be considered at all levels of conservation policies – from high-level legislation to guidelines for implementing individual programs.

    Policies should include clear and consistent targets informed by climate risk. This should be supported by regulations ensuring compliance and practical guidelines for on-ground action.

    Voluntary conservation programs in New South Wales show how it can be done. State biodiversity conservation legislation includes conserving biodiversity under climate change as a key objective. This can then shape real-world programs. For example, the NSW Conservation Management plan echoes this climate commitment. It makes addressing climate change impacts one of the main targets.

    A chance to get it right

    National nature law reform and state reviews present an opportunity to future-proof Australia’s conservation policies.

    These policies must consider the accelerating pace of change and ensure adaptation is embedded through to action. Such actions must be clear, well-resourced, and equipped with practical tools government agencies and landholders can use.

    Otherwise, we risk making conservation policies unfit for the future – missing a golden opportunity to safeguard biodiversity.



    Read more:
    Want genuine progress towards restoring nature? Follow these 4 steps

    Yi Fei Chung receives funding from a UQ Research Training Scholarship. He is also involving in an Australian Research Council Linkage Project that receives financial and in-kind support from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, and the NSW Koala Strategy.

    Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the NSW Government, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, the NSW Koala Strategy, and the Queensland Government.

    – ref. Most of Australia’s conservation efforts ignore climate risks – here are 3 fixes – https://theconversation.com/most-of-australias-conservation-efforts-ignore-climate-risks-here-are-3-fixes-257131

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s global trade plans are in disarray, amid legal appeals to a US court ruling on ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Susan Stone, Credit Union SA Chair of Economics, University of South Australia

    Earlier this week, a US court blocked the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs that US President Donald Trump imposed on imported goods from around 90 nations.

    On Wednesday (US time), the Court of International Trade ruled the emergency authority Trump used to impose the tariffs could not override the role of Congress, which has the right to regulate commerce with other countries.

    The following day, however, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington paused the trade court’s ruling, temporarily reinstating Trump’s tariffs. The earlier court ruling, and the fresh uncertainty prompted by the appeal have left the implementation of Trump’s trade policy in disarray.

    Even though it has been paused, the trade court’s ruling calls into question trade negotiations underway with more than 18 different nations, which are trying to lower these tariffs. Do these countries continue to negotiate or do they wait for the judicial process to play out?

    The Trump administration still has other mechanisms through which it can impose tariffs, but these have limits on the amount that can be imposed, or entail processes which can take months or years. This undermines Trump’s preferred method of negotiation: throwing out large threats and backing down once a concession is reached.

    Emergency powers were a step too far

    The lawsuits were filed by US importers of foreign products and some US states, challenging Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.

    The lawsuits argued the national emergencies cited in imposing the tariffs – the trade deficit and the fentanyl crisis – were not an emergency and not directly addressed by the tariff remedy. The court agreed, and said by imposing tariffs Trump had overstepped his authority.

    The ruling said the executive orders used were “declared to be invalid as contrary to law”.

    The act states the president is entitled to take economic action in the face of “an unusual and extraordinary threat”. It’s mainly been used to impose sanctions on terrorist groups or freeze assets from Russia. There’s nothing in the act that refers to tariffs.

    The decision means all the reciprocal tariffs – including the 10% tariffs on most countries, the 50% tariffs Trump was talking about putting on the EU, and some of the Chinese tariffs – are ruled by the court to be illegal.

    The ruling was based on two separate lawsuits. One was brought by a group of small businesses that argued tariffs materially hurt their business. The other was brought by 12 individual states, arguing the tariffs would materially impact their ability to provide public goods.

    Some industry tariffs will remain in place

    The ruling does not apply to tariffs applied under Section 201, known as safeguard tariffs. They are intended to protect industries from imports allegedly being sold in the US market at unfair prices or through unfair means. Tariffs on solar panels and washing machines were brought under this regulation.

    Also excluded are Section 232 tariffs, which are applied for national security reasons. Those are the steel and aluminium tariffs, the automobile and auto parts tariffs. Trump has declared all those as national security issues, so those tariffs will remain.

    Most of the tariffs against China are also excluded under Section 301. Those are put in place for unfair trade practices, such as intellectual property theft or forced technology transfer. They are meant to pressure countries to change their policies.

    Other trade investigations are still underway

    In addition, there are current investigations related to copper and the pharmaceuticals sector, which will continue. These investigations are part of a more traditional trade process and may lead to future tariffs, including on Australia.

    The Trump administration is still weighing possible sector-specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
    Planar/Shutterstock

    Now for the appeals

    Following the subsequent reinstatement of tariffs, we now have to wait for the appeals process to play out. This may take some time. The plaintiffs have until June 5 to respond, and the Trump administration has until June 9.

    In the meantime, there are at least five other legal challenges to tariffs pending in the courts.

    If the appeals court provides a ruling the Trump administration or opponents don’t like, they can appeal to the Supreme Court.

    Alternatively, the White House could direct customs officials to ignore the court and continue to collect tariffs.

    The Trump administration has ignored court orders in the past, particularly on immigration rulings.

    The administration is unlikely to lie down on this. In addition to its appeal process, officials complained about “unelected judges” and “judicial overreach” and may contest the whole process. The only thing that continues to be a certainty is that uncertainty will drive global markets for the foreseeable future.

    Susan Stone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s global trade plans are in disarray, amid legal appeals to a US court ruling on ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – https://theconversation.com/trumps-global-trade-plans-are-in-disarray-amid-legal-appeals-to-a-us-court-ruling-on-liberation-day-tariffs-257812

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth’s seasonal rhythms are changing, putting species and ecosystems at risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Hernández Carrasco, PhD Candidate in Ecology, University of Canterbury

    Shutterstock/Colin Stephenson

    Seasonality shapes much of life on Earth. Most species, including humans, have synchronised their own rhythms with those of Earth’s seasons.

    Plant growth cycles, the migration of billions of animals, and even aspects of human culture – from harvest rituals to Japanese cherry blossom viewings – are dictated by these dominant rhythms.

    However, climate change and many other human impacts are altering Earth’s cycles. While humans can adapt their behaviour by shifting the timing of crop harvests or Indigenous fire-burning practices, species are less able to adapt through evolution or range shifts.

    Our new research highlights how the impacts of shifting seasons can cascade through ecosystems, with widespread repercussions that may be greater than previously thought.

    This puts species and ecosystems at risk the world over. We are still far from having a full picture of what changes in seasonality mean for the future of biodiversity.

    Almost every ecosystem on Earth has seasons

    From tropical forests to polar ice caps and abyssal depths, the annual journey of Earth around the Sun brings distinct seasons to all corners of the planet.

    These seasonal rhythms shape ecosystems everywhere, whether through monsoonal rains in equatorial regions or the predictable melt of snowpack in mountain ranges.

    But the seasonality of these processes is changing rapidly due to local human impacts. This includes dams in many rivers, which completely and abruptly disrupt their natural flow, and deforestation, which changes the timing of the onset of the rain season.

    These local influences are compounded by climate change, which is systematically modifying seasonal patterns in snow cover, temperature and rainfall around the world.

    Monsoon rains represent one of Earth’s major seasonal cycles.
    Shutterstock/Milju varghese

    From the earlier seasonal melting of glaciers and the snowpack to the disruption of monsoonal rain cycles, the effects of these changes are being felt widely.

    Many important ecological processes we rely on could be affected. A mismatch between plankton blooms and the life cycles of fish could affect the health of fisheries. Tourism dependent on seasonal migrations of large mammals could suffer. Even the regulation of the climate system itself is tightly controlled by seasonal processes.

    Changing seasonality threatens to destabilise key ecological processes and human society.

    Evolutionary adaptations to seasonal fluctuations

    The seasonal rhythms of ecosystems are obvious to any observer. The natural timing of annual flowers and deciduous trees – tuned to match seasonal variations in rainfall, temperature and solar radiation – transforms the colours of whole landscapes throughout the year.

    The arrival and departure of migratory birds, the life cycle of insects and amphibians, and the mating rituals of large mammals can completely change the soundscapes with the seasons.

    These examples illustrate how seasonality acts as a strong evolutionary force that has shaped the life cycles and behaviour of most species. But, in the face of unprecedented changes to Earth’s natural rhythms, these adaptations can lead to complex negative impacts.

    Snowshoe hares are struggling to adapt to shifts in the timing of the first snowfall and melt.
    Shutterstock/Karen Hogan

    For instance, snowshoe hares change coat colour between winter and summer to blend in with their surroundings and hide from predators. They are struggling to adapt to shifts in the timing of the first snow and snowmelt. The impact of changing seasonality on hare populations is linked with changes in predation rates. But predators themselves may also be out of sync with the new onset of seasons.

    Our research highlights that these kinds of complex interactions can propagate impacts through ecosystems, linking individual species’ seasonal adaptations to broader food web dynamics, or even ecosystem functions such as carbon sequestration.

    Although biologists have studied seasonal processes for centuries, we know surprisingly little about how they mediate any ecological impacts of altered seasonality. Our findings show we are likely underestimating these impacts.

    The distinct mechanisms involved deserve further attention. Until we account for these complex processes, we risk overlooking important ecological and human consequences.

    The more we understand, the better prepared we are

    Understanding the extent to which impacts of altered seasonality can interact and propagate from individuals to whole ecosystems is a big challenge. It will require different types of research, complex mathematical modelling and the design of new experiments. But it is not easy to manipulate the seasons in an experiment.

    Scientists have come up with inventive ways of experimentally testing the effects of altered seasonality. This includes manually removing snow early in spring, manipulating rainfall patterns through irrigation and moving plants and animals to places with different seasonality.

    Some researchers have even recovered seeds from centuries-old collections to sprout them and look at how recent changes in climate have affected plant populations.

    These efforts will be of great value for forecasting impacts and designing effective management strategies beneficial for ecosystems and humans alike. Such efforts help to anticipate future shocks and prioritise interventions.

    For instance, understanding the mechanisms that allow native and non-native species to anticipate seasonal changes has proven useful for “tricking” non-native plants into sprouting only in the wrong season. This gives an advantage to native plants.

    Similarly, studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the response to seasonality can help us determine whether certain species are likely to adapt to further changes in seasonal patterns. This research can also point out genes that could be targeted for improving the resilience and productivity of crops.

    Not only are we likely underestimating the ecological risks of shifting seasons, we tend to forget how much our everyday lives depend on them. As Earth’s rhythms change, the risks multiply. But so does our opportunity to better understand, anticipate and adapt to these changes.

    Daniel Hernández Carrasco receives funding from a Doctoral Scholarship by the University of Canterbury.

    Jonathan Tonkin receives funding from a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship administered by the Royal Society Te Apārangi and the Centres of Research Excellence Bioprotection Aotearoa and Te Pūnaha Matatini.

    – ref. Earth’s seasonal rhythms are changing, putting species and ecosystems at risk – https://theconversation.com/earths-seasonal-rhythms-are-changing-putting-species-and-ecosystems-at-risk-257660

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Talk to Me was a rollercoaster, but the Philippou brothers’ Bring Her Back will trap you in a house of horrors

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Balanzategui, Associate Professor in Media, RMIT University

    A24

    They may have only made two feature films so far, but Danny and Michael Philippou are already being hailed as Australia’s premiere horror auteurs.

    Their 2023 debut Talk To Me sparked a bidding war between distributors upon its premiere at Sundance.

    It went on to become prestige indie studio A24’s highest grossing horror release ever at the United States box office. That’s an impressive feat, given A24 is behind some of the most revered horror films of the 21st century, including Ari Aster’s Hereditary (2018) and Midsommar (2019), and Robert Eggers’ The Witch (2015).

    This context helps explain the sky-high expectations around the release of the Philippous’ newest horror film, Bring Her Back. The brothers even expressed their nerves around the film’s release during a preview screening introduction.

    But I’d suggest they breathe a sigh of relief. Bring Her Back trades the chaotic thrills of Talk To Me for a slow-burning, sensory-driven exploration of grief that’s as engrossing as it is unbearable.

    Same universe, but not a sequel

    Bring Her Back is very tonally distinct from and not explicitly narratively linked to Talk To Me. However, the directors have explained it exists in the same fictional universe as their original smash hit.

    This explains why, despite the stark difference in tone – Bring Her Back is a much more sombre watch – there are many thematic and stylistic parallels. These similarities are visible from the films’ marketing materials, through to individual frames.

    Film posters for Bring Her Back and Talk To Me.
    A24

    Bring Her Back’s sombre notes

    Talk To Me is a riotous, bloody and loud racket of teen supernatural possession horror.

    Like Richard Carter’s song Le Monde, a viral hit from the movie’s soundtrack, the film rises and falls cacophonously. It follows a group of teens at a party as they decide to commune with the dead through an occult party prop: a cursed hand.

    Trauma, grief, gore and comedy strike discordantly at the piano keys as the body count piles up.

    In contrast to Talk To Me’s tonal and sonic mayhem, Bring Her Back heavily pounds at the same two notes throughout: grief and trauma.

    Set in the horror staple of a mysterious, suffocating house, the film follows step-siblings Piper (Sora Wong) and Andy (Billy Barratt) as they adjust to life with their new foster mother, Laura (Sally Hawkins), after their father’s sudden death. The teen’s sense of vulnerability in the strange new environment is heightened by the fact Piper is blind.

    Bring Her Back builds on a trend of sensory-driven horror films – including the Quiet Place franchise, Bird Box (2018), and The Silence (2019) – that impel viewers to navigate threatening environments through the main character’s sensory loss or impairment.

    Uncomfortable on the ear

    In Bring Her Back, the viewer inhabits the destabilising environment of the house through layered sensory textures that feel increasingly claustrophobic and threatening.

    Case in point is the harsh rush of water in the running shower where the teens find their father’s gruesome dead body in the opening moments. As the film progresses, this sound manifests as a genuine threat to Piper’s life, in the form of relentlessly pouring (and potentially occult) rain.

    The oppressive rain gradually fills up the house’s desolate, unfenced swimming pool, which is the site of previous trauma for foster mother Laura.

    Simply traversing the house’s backyard becomes increasingly perilous for Piper as she becomes accustomed to her environment, a process the audience shares through the audio-visuals of her hands gliding across walls, counter tops and corners.

    The immersive sound design is dense with hands scraping, sliding and slapping – as well as some truly hideous teeth gnashing. These tactile sounds integrate chillingly with the otherwordly soundtrack composed by Cornel Wilczek, who also composed the score for Talk to Me.

    Haunting performances

    The teens soon learn that another foster child, the mute and mysterious Oliver (Jonah Wren Phillips), also inhabits the house. The strange relationship between Laura and Oliver couldn’t be more ominous.

    Sally Hawkins is captivatingly monstrous as the outwardly warm but increasingly overbearing and unhinged mother figure (particularly for those of us with a fresh memory of Hawkins’ loveably zany mum, Mrs Brown, from the Paddington films).

    Piper is tempted to sink into the warm embrace Laura offers. The viewer, however, is privy to Laura’s vicious streak – evident in her rough, uncaring gestures, harsh glares and sinister flashes of cunning.

    Young Jonah Wren Phillips is transfixing as the creepy Oliver, delivering a performance through piercing stares and tortured bodily contortions rather than dialogue.

    Unbearably grim

    Bring Her Back exhibits a dense film literacy. The Philippous have discussed the influence of classic “psycho biddy” films such as What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? (1962), and foundational ghost films such as The Innocents (1961).

    But for me, Bring Her Back chimes most evocatively with the trauma- and grief-soaked Japanese horror wave of the early 2000s, and particularly with Hideo Nakata’s J-Horror masterpiece Dark Water (2002).

    This tragic ghost story similarly deploys the rippling, rushing and dripping of water as an agent of death and decay within fractured mother-daughter relationships.

    Inhabiting the world of Bring Her Back ends up feeling like an unbearably grim and claustrophobic endurance effort – which is exactly what the Philippous intended.

    While this is not the exhilarating rollercoaster of Talk To Me, the shift in tonal gears showcases the Philippous’ impressive range within the horror genre’s rich emotional terrain.

    Bring Her Back is in cinemas from today.

    Jessica Balanzategui receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Talk to Me was a rollercoaster, but the Philippou brothers’ Bring Her Back will trap you in a house of horrors – https://theconversation.com/talk-to-me-was-a-rollercoaster-but-the-philippou-brothers-bring-her-back-will-trap-you-in-a-house-of-horrors-257631

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NSW is again cleaning up after major floods. Are we veering towards the collapse of insurability?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Booth, Associate Professor of Human Geography, University of Tasmania

    Once again, large parts of New South Wales have been devastated by floods. It’s estimated 10,000 homes and businesses may have been damaged or destroyed and the Insurance Council of Australia reports more than 6,000 insurance claims have been received for the Mid North Coast and Hunter region.

    Hundreds of families are displaced. With many homes now uninhabitable, they face a uncertain future.

    As the mop-up begins, stories are emerging of households and businesses not covered by insurance, with some residents saying insurance companies were asking up to A$30,000 annually for cover.

    There are many others who are underinsured, with insurance payouts not meeting the full costs of rebuild, repair and replacement. The Insurance Council of Australia has declared the event an “insurance catastrophe”.

    The impacts of these floods reflect global trends. In 2024, there were around 60 natural disaster events that each exceeded A$1.5 billion in economic losses. Total losses worldwide reached A$650 billion.

    As one of the most disaster-prone countries in the Western world, is Australia the canary in the coalmine for a global collapse of insurance? With these types of disasters escalating in a changing climate, it is reasonable to feel – and fear – this is the case.

    An uninsurable future?

    In 1992, sociologist Ulrich Beck argued unpredictable global risks, such as climate change, would bring an end to the private insurance market, with profound effects on the modern world.

    The idea of an uninsurable future stirs up imaginings of apocalyptic landscapes – crumbling buildings, streets strewn with refuse and people eking out a living amid the rubble and ruins.

    But the reality is, as we are seeing in central NSW, it is not a future event that demands attention. Many individuals and communities are already living with an unfolding collapse of insurance affordability and availability.

    The consequences can be dire, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet.

    How are governments responding?

    Speaking on ABC radio on Thursday morning, NSW Premier Chris Minns said he would be “putting the heat” on insurance companies:

    Everyone’s going to have to do their part […] and that means insurance companies will have to step up and pay out claims quickly.

    In the lead-up to the federal election, both major parties made clear they believed insurers were “ripping off” Australians. The Coalition even proposed new emergency divestiture powers that would allow the government to break up major insurers in the case of market failure.

    But this is no solution at all, given insurance pricing and coverage is largely set by global “reinsurers”. Reinsurance is a kind of insurance coverage for insurance companies themselves – that is, policies to cover the cost of paying out claims after major disasters.

    Just ten multi-billion dollar companies control 70% of the reinsurance market.

    Who should bear rising costs?

    Insurers, led by the Insurance Council of Australia, are pushing for a Flood Defence Fund and retrofitting homes for disaster resilience, paid for by governments and households.

    These ideas might seem logical. But they draw attention away from a thriving industry and regulations and policies aimed at making insurance more affordable and effective for ordinary people.

    In places like Australia, the increasing cost of insurance cuts across all types, with the largest rises coming in home, vehicle, and employers’ liability insurance.

    Many insurers are reporting healthy profits. Globally, the sector is experiencing “exceptionally strong growth”.

    Over the three years to 2024, revenue from premiums in the insurance sector increased by over 21% globally – a “whopping” rise, according to the finance corporation Allianz.

    Where to from here?

    The insurance sector will continue to grow – and profit – until it no longer can due to climate change and other pressures.

    But it is not a future crash of insurers that should be of primary concern. It is the real-time collapse of insurance for households, businesses and communities.

    As this collapse of insurance unfolds, it is largely left to households and communities to take action and build resilience.

    Examples include squatters taking possession of flood-damaged vacant homes in Lismore and, when combined with the housing crisis, the growth in informal housing and settlements on the fringes of major population centres.

    These are desperate responses. But they are also realistic, given governments and insurers are failing to reverse this trending collapse.

    What else we could do

    After each major disaster event comes a rise in insurance costs and a withdrawal of insurance coverage. To avoid being a canary in the coalmine, Australia urgently needs government intervention in the insurance industry – an industry very resistant to such intervention.

    To ensure everyone is adequately covered when disaster strikes, this could come in the form of an equitable and affordable public insurance scheme.

    As more Australians lose the ability to insure themselves, governments must also address growing structural inequality that is undermining social cohesion and our capacity for collective resilience.



    Read more:
    Underinsurance is entrenching poverty as the vulnerable are hit hardest by disasters

    Kate Booth receives funding from the Tasmanian Department of Premier and Cabinet – Grant-Disaster Ready Fund. She is affiliated with Just Collapse – an activist platform dedicated to socio-ecological justice in unfolding, irreversible global collapse.

    – ref. NSW is again cleaning up after major floods. Are we veering towards the collapse of insurability? – https://theconversation.com/nsw-is-again-cleaning-up-after-major-floods-are-we-veering-towards-the-collapse-of-insurability-257715

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Researchers created a chatbot to help teach a university law class – but the AI kept messing up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Armin Alimardani, Senior Lecturer in Law and Emerging Technologies, University of Wollongong

    Mikhail Nilov/ Pexels , CC BY

    “AI tutors” have been hyped as a way to revolutionise education.

    The idea is generative artificial intelligence tools (such as ChatGPT) could adapt to any teaching style set by a teacher. The AI could guide students step-by-step through problems and offer hints without giving away answers. It could then deliver precise, immediate feedback tailored to the student’s individual learning gaps.

    Despite the enthusiasm, there is limited research testing how well AI performs in teaching environments, especially within structured university courses.

    In our new study, we developed our own AI tool for a university law class. We wanted to know, can it genuinely support personalised learning or are we expecting too much?

    Our study

    In 2022, we developed SmartTest, a customisable educational chatbot, as part of a broader project to democratise access to AI tools in education.

    Unlike generic chatbots, SmartTest is purpose-built for educators, allowing them to embed questions, model answers and prompts. This means the chatbot can ask relevant questions, deliver accurate and consistent feedback and minimise hallucinations (or mistakes). SmartTest is also instructed to use the Socratic method, encouraging students to think, rather than spoon-feeding them answers.

    We trialled SmartTest over five test cycles in a criminal law course (which one of us was coordinating) at the University of Wollongong in 2023.

    Each cycle introduced varying degrees of complexity. The first three cycles used short hypothetical criminal law scenarios (for example, is the accused guilty of theft in this scenario?). The last two cycles used simple short-answer questions (for example, what’s the maximum sentencing discount for a guilty plea?).

    An average of 35 students interacted with SmartTest in each cycle across several criminal law tutorials. Participation was voluntary and anonymous, with students interacting with SmartTest on their own devices for up to ten minutes per session. Students’ conversations with SmartTest – their attempts at answering the question, and the immediate feedback they received from the chatbot – were recorded in our database.

    After the final test cycle, we surveyed students about their experience.

    What we found

    SmartTest showed promise in guiding students and helping them identify gaps in their understanding.

    However, in the first three cycles (the problem-scenario questions), between 40% and 54% of conversations had at least one example of inaccurate, misleading, or incorrect feedback.

    When we shifted to much simpler short-answer format in cycles four and five, the error rate dropped significantly to between 6% and 27%. However, even in these best-performing cycles, some errors persisted. For example, sometimes SmartTest would affirm an incorrect answer before providing the correct one, which risks confusing students.

    A significant revelation was the sheer effort required to get the chatbot working effectively in our tests. Far from a time-saving silver bullet, integrating SmartTest involved painstaking prompt engineering and rigorous manual assessments from educators (in this case, us). This paradox – where a tool promoted as labour-saving demands significant labour – calls into question its practical benefits for already time-poor educators.

    Inconsistency is a core issue

    SmartTest’s behaviour was also unpredictable. Under identical conditions, it sometimes offered excellent feedback and at other times provided incorrect, confusing or misleading information.

    For an educational tool tasked with supporting student learning, this raises serious concerns about reliability and trustworthiness.

    To assess if newer models improved performance, we replaced the underlying generative AI powering SmartTest (ChatGPT-4) with newer models, such as ChatGPT-4.5, which was released in 2025.

    We tested these models by replicating instances where SmartTest provided poor feedback to students in our study. The newer models did not consistently outperform older ones. Sometimes, their responses were even less accurate or useful from a teaching perspective. As such, newer more advanced AI models do not automatically translate to better educational outcomes.

    What does this mean for students and teachers?

    The implications for students and university staff are mixed.

    Generative AI may support low-stakes, formative learning activities. But in our study, it could not provide the reliability, nuance and subject-matter depth needed for many educational contexts.

    On the plus side, our survey results indicated students appreciated the immediate feedback and conversational tone of SmartTest. Some mentioned it reduced anxiety and made them more comfortable expressing uncertainty. However, this benefit came with a catch: incorrect or misleading answers could just as easily reinforce misunderstandings as clarify them.

    Most students (76%) preferred having access to SmartTest rather than no opportunity to practise questions. However, when given the choice between receiving immediate feedback from AI or waiting one or more days for feedback from human tutors, only 27% preferred AI. Nearly half preferred human feedback with a delay and the rest were indifferent.

    This suggests a critical challenge. Students enjoy the convenience of AI tools, but they still place higher trust in human educators.

    A need for caution

    Our findings suggest generative AI should still be treated as an experimental educational aid.

    The potential is real – but so are the limitations. Relying too heavily on AI without rigorous evaluation risks compromising the very educational outcomes we are aiming to enhance.

    Armin Alimardani previously had a short-term, part-time contract with OpenAI as a consultant. The organisation had no input into the study featured in this article. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.

    This work was supported by the Early-Mid-Career Researcher Enabling Grants Scheme, University of Wollongong (2022, Project ID: R5829).

    This work was supported by the School Research Grant, School of the Arts and Media (SAM), UNSW Sydney (2023, Project ID: PS68922); the Research Infrastructure Scheme, Faculty of Arts, Design, and Architecture, UNSW Sydney (2023, Project ID: PS68745); and the School Research Grant, SAM, UNSW Sydney (2022, Project ID: PS66264).

    – ref. Researchers created a chatbot to help teach a university law class – but the AI kept messing up – https://theconversation.com/researchers-created-a-chatbot-to-help-teach-a-university-law-class-but-the-ai-kept-messing-up-257551

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: People with disability are dying from cancers we can actually prevent, our study shows

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yi Yang, Research Fellow, Social Epidemiology, Melbourne Disability Institute, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne

    Chona Kasinger/Disabled and Here, CC BY-SA

    People with disability are missing out on screening programs that could help detect cancer early, and after diagnosis, are less likely to survive, our study shows.

    Overall, this means people with disability are more likely to die from cancer than people without disability.

    We draw together evidence showing the striking inequity at the heart of current approaches to controlling cancer.

    But there are ways to improve access to the types of screening programs and cancer services many people without disability use routinely.

    What we did and what we found

    We reviewed evidence from 73 studies from around the world. These studies compared cancer outcomes in people with disability to those without.

    Let’s start with cancer screening, one way to prevent deaths from cancer. Screening picks up early signs of cancer or can prevent it from developing into a problem if found early enough. Early detection usually means more treatment options and higher chances of a good outcome.

    However, our review found people with disability are missing out on these life-saving screening programs all around the world, including for breast, cervical and bowel cancer.

    In fact, some studies in our review showed these cancers are more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced stage in people with disability.

    Once diagnosed, people with disability are still at a disadvantage. We found lower survival rates than cancer patients without disability.

    This could be because of delayed diagnosis and inaccessible treatment, and we’d need further research to be sure. But we do have relevant evidence from some studies.

    A UK study of cancer deaths in people with intellectual disability found more than a third had their cancer diagnosed after going to the emergency department. Almost half of the cancers in the study were already at an advanced stage when diagnosed.

    Another review of global evidence found cancer patients with disability receive poorer quality cancer care. This included delays in treatment, being undertreated or having excessively invasive treatment. People with disability also had less access to in-hospital services and pain medication.

    From diagnosis to treatment, global evidence shows people with disability are being excluded from health services that many people without disability routinely access and benefit from.

    The situation is no different in Australia and it is costing lives.

    In previous work, we found cancer is a leading cause of earlier deaths among Australians with disability. It’s the cause of about 20% of the extra deaths we see in people with disability compared to people without.

    Why is this happening?

    We clearly need to do more to improve health care for people with disability. But we also need to take action in other areas to address underlying issues.

    People with disability are more likely to be poor and live in disadvantaged circumstances than the rest of the Australian population, which may put them at higher risk of cancer.

    Many factors that cause cancer – for example, smoking, unaffordable healthy food, and drinking high levels of alcohol – disproportionately impact disadvantaged groups, including people with disability.

    Many people with disability live with additional health conditions, which can lead to a lack of attention to routine issues. This can result in cancer screening and routine care becoming less of a priority.

    Buildings where services are provided and medical diagnostic equipment is located are not always accessible for people with disability.

    The health system itself can be inaccessible, with little support to help people with disability access services. For instance, navigating cancer care can be overwhelming, especially for people who need support for daily activities, transport or communication.

    People with disability, especially with intellectual disability, need extra time and support to give informed consent to screening, treatment or procedures – resources and time particularly overstretched in public health systems.

    People with disability can also experience both direct and indirect discrimination in health care, which lead to poorer outcomes. This includes discriminatory attitudes towards people with disability and their carers, and making assumptions about a patient based on their disability.

    Health systems need to allow for extra time to get informed consent.
    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    What can we do about it?

    For cancer control to be inclusive and work for people with disability, we need to look at:

    • prevention – public health interventions, such as quit smoking or healthy lifestyle programs, need to be co-designed with and tailored to people with disability

    • early detection – national screening programs must develop strategies and take active steps to include people with disability. Clinics need to be physically accessible, information needs to be available in a range of accessible formats, and extra time needs to be allocated to get genuine informed consent

    • ensuring people with disability have a voice – cancer care needs to be tailored to an individual person, as everyone’s needs are different. We need to support and include people with disability in conversations about their care so they can make informed decisions. This means providing information in ways that work for them, and allowing time to understand and ask questions

    • training health professionals to understand and respond to the needs of people with disability and make the adjustments required for optimal cancer care, particularly for people with an intellectual disability.

    Yi Yang’s research is supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Melbourne Disability Institute and an Early Career Researcher Grant from the University of Melbourne. Yi Yang has conducted commissioned work for the Australian Department of Social Services (inequalities in NDIS), the Victorian Department of Families Fairness and Housing (NDIS service use in Victoria), and the Queensland Department of Seniors, Disability Services, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships (inequalities in NDIS service use in regional and remote Queensland).

    George Disney receives funding from the NHMRC and has conducted commissioned work for the Australian Department of Social Services (NDIS service use), the Victorian Department of Families Fairness and Housing (inequalities in NDIS service use), and the Queensland Department of Seniors, Disability Services, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships (NDIS service use in regional and remote Queensland).

    Kirsten Deane is a member of the consortium receiving funding from the Commonwealth Department of Health for the Centre of Excellence in Intellectual Disability Health. Melbourne Disability Institute also receives funding from the Department of Social Services for the Australian Disability Dialogue and for the Centre for Inclusive Employment. MDi also received funding from the Commonwealth, Victorian and Queensland governments to conduct research into inequities in NDIS funding and services.

    – ref. People with disability are dying from cancers we can actually prevent, our study shows – https://theconversation.com/people-with-disability-are-dying-from-cancers-we-can-actually-prevent-our-study-shows-257456

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Google is going ‘all in’ on AI. It’s part of a troubling trend in big tech

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zena Assaad, Senior Lecturer, School of Engineering, Australian National University

    Google recently unveiled the next phase of its artificial intelligence (AI) journey: “AI mode”.

    This new feature will soon be released as a new option to users of Google’s search engine in the United States, with no timeline yet for the rest of the world. The company says it will be akin to having a conversation with an expert well versed on a wide range of topics.

    This is just one of many steps Google is taking in pursuit of its “all-in” approach to AI.

    The “all-in” approach extends beyond just integrating the technology into different applications. Google is providing products all along the AI supply chain – a process known as “vertical integration” – housing everything from AI computer chips through to the user interfaces we interact with on a daily basis, such as Google maps or Gmail.

    Google isn’t the only AI company with ambitions of vertical integration. For example, OpenAI recently acquired a hardware startup co-founded by Apple’s Jony Ive, which will centralise hardware development within the company. Amazon is taking similar steps. It owns cloud computing platforms, custom chips, device plans and is incorporating more AI services into products.

    This may be the beginning of a trend of vertical integration across big tech. And it could have significant implications for users and companies alike.

    The AI ‘tech stack’

    Hardware, software, data sources, databases and servers are some of the layers that make up what is commonly referred to as the “AI tech stack”.

    There are four main layers to Google’s evolving vertical tech stack:

    1. Hardware layer. Google develops its own AI chips, known as tensor processing units (TPUs). The company claims these chips provide superior performance and efficiency compared to general purpose processors.

    2. Infrastructure layer. The company uses its own cloud infrastructure to source its computing power, networking and storage requirements. This infrastructure is the foundation for running and scaling AI capabilities.

    3. Model development layer. In-house research capabilities are used to drive the development of their products and services. This includes research around machine learning, robotics, language models and computer vision.

    4. Data layer. Data is constantly sourced from users across all Google platforms, including its search engine, maps and email. Data collection is a condition of using any Google application.

    Some argue vertical integration is an optimal and cost-effective business strategy in many industries, not just tech. However, the realities of this set-up prove otherwise.

    Google is seeking to become a vertically integrated AI company.
    RYO Alexandre/Shutterstock

    Fuelling power imbalances

    Google and OpenAI are two of just a handful of companies which dominate the global technology market.

    Thanks to this market dominance, these companies can charge higher markups for their goods and services and abuse practices in online advertising.

    Vertical integration further skews this power imbalance by centralising the layers of the AI tech stack to one company. A distribution of hardware, infrastructure, research and development and data across multiple industries helps support a more equitable playing field across the industry.

    The loss of this equity creates greater barriers to entry for smaller companies as the larger conglomerates keep everything in-house.

    It also reduces incentives to innovate in ways that benefit consumers because it eliminates the business competition that usually drives innovation.

    Data is often described as the new gold. This is especially true in the case of AI, which is heavily reliant on data. Through its many platforms, Google has access to a continuous stream of data. In turn, this gives the company even more power in the industry.

    Other tech companies such as Amazon are moving towards vertical integration in the AI sector.
    ACHPF/Shutterstock

    The vulnerabilities of vertical integration

    The success of a company that is vertically integrated relies on housing the best knowledge and expertise in-house. Retaining this level of resourcing within a small handful of companies can lead to knowledge and expertise hoarding.

    Research shows knowledge and expertise hoarding reduces social learning and increases disparities between “winners” and “losers” in a given market. This creates an overall vulnerable industry, because net gains are lost in the pursuit of exclusivity.

    Exclusivity also breeds a lack of resilience. That’s because the points of failure are centralised.

    Risk is better managed with additional oversight, transparency and accountability. Collaborations across industry rely on these processes to work together effectively.

    Centralising the AI tech stack within one organisation eliminates external scrutiny, because it reduces interactions with external providers of products and services. In turn this can lead to a company behaving in a more risky manner.

    Regulatory bodies can also provide external scrutiny.

    However, the current push to deregulate AI is widening the gap between technology development and regulation.

    It is also allowing for big tech companies to become increasingly opaque. A lack of transparency raises issues about organisational practices; in the context of AI, practices around data are of particular concern.

    The trend towards vertical integration in the AI sector will further increase this opacity and heighten existing issues around transparency.

    Zena Assaad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Google is going ‘all in’ on AI. It’s part of a troubling trend in big tech – https://theconversation.com/google-is-going-all-in-on-ai-its-part-of-a-troubling-trend-in-big-tech-257563

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The debate over genocide claims in relation to Gaza intensifies

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    In the past few days, discussion around whether Israel is committing acts of genocide in Gaza has intensified. On May 28 The Guardian reported that “380 writers and groups” had signed an open letter calling Israel’s military campaign in Gaza “genocide”. The letter reads, in part:

    The use of the words ‘genocide’ or ‘acts of genocide’ to describe what is happening in Gaza is no longer debated by international legal experts or human rights organizations.

    This followed news of a letter to the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, signed by more than 800 lawyers, including former supreme court justices, calling on the prime minister to impose sanctions on the Israeli government.

    “There is mounting evidence of genocide, which is either being perpetrated or at a minimum at serious risk of occurring,” the letter stated, adding that a recent statement from Israel’s finance minister Belazel Smotrich that the Israel Defense Forces would “wipe out” what remains of Palestinian Gaza was an indication of genocidal intent.

    One of the signatories was Professor Guy Goodwin-Gill, a senior research fellow at All Souls College, Oxford, who has a track record of expertise in international humanitarian law. The Conversation spoke with him to discuss the issue. He said:

    There is no doubt in my mind that war crimes have been committed and although genocide is basically an extreme form of war crime, it can be notoriously difficult to establish intent to destroy a people, in part or in whole.

    The task of proving genocide is hard enough, but [in this case] the evidence can be gathered from the facts on the ground – they speak for themselves. And intent can be inferred from what politicians and officials actually say, especially when it is not denied or qualified.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    But he said he had “reservations about whether, at an inter-state level, a charge of genocide would be levelled against Israel by more than a few states. And if it succeeded, the legal and political consequences.”

    But individual prosecutions for war crimes and genocide are “always a distinct possibility,” he added.

    In fact, the crime of genocide has only been recognised on a handful of occasions since it was first established in 1948. James Sweeney, an expert in international law from Lancaster University has written a brief history of genocide.



    Read more:
    Why have so few atrocities ever been recognised as genocide?

    Meanwhile, in the West Bank city of Jenin, IDF forces sparked international outrage when they fired “warning shots” closer to a group of 25 diplomats on a fact-finding visit in the wake of an Israeli military offensive there.

    Andrew Forde, an expert in international humanitarian law at Dublin City University, considers that this act “crossed the Rubicon”, which is the convention, universally accepted over millennia, of the inviolability of diplomats and their staff. It’s a clear breach, he writes of article 29 of the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations, to which Israel is a signatory, which states that the host state “shall take all appropriate steps to prevent any attack on [their] person, freedom or dignity”.

    Israel responded by offering an apology, but claimed that the diplomats in question had “deviated from the approved route” by entering a restricted area”.

    The incident forced the group of diplomats to scramble for cover and hindered their work in Jenin, Forde writes. As such it is a flagrant breach of Israel’s duty of care. And it sets a dangerous precedent: “Diplomatic protections work effectively when they are reciprocal. Without trust, the system quickly unravels.”



    Read more:
    IDF firing ‘warning shots’ near diplomats sets an unacceptable precedent in international relations

    Israel’s campaign in Gaza is a factor in a hugely complex situation being played out at present in the Middle East, which is straining the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. The US president is talking up the idea of signing a new nuclear deal with Iran to replace the one he withdrew from in 2018. The Israeli prime minister is bitterly opposed to an US-Iran deal and has proposed launching strikes against Iran’s nuclear installations. The pair reportedly clashed over the issue in a phone call this week.

    But Trump recently returned from a trip to the Gulf States, none of which want the sort of regional conflagration that Israeli strikes on Iran could cause. And, as Scott Lucas of University College Dublin writes, he is also very keen to burnish his credentials as a dealmaker, especially in light of his failure to bring the Ukraine war to a close within 24 hours and the failure of the ceasefire in Gaza for which he has claimed much of the credit.

    As Lucas writes, “even as Trump does what he wants over Iran to Netanyahu’s chagrin, the Israeli prime minister is finding that Trump is not restricting what he does closer to home in Gaza”.



    Read more:
    Why are the US and Israel not on the same page over how to deal with Iran? Expert Q&A

    Ukraine: as the US falters, Germany steps up

    Volodymr Zelensky flew to Berlin this week where he met the German chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said Germany would work with Ukraine to develop long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia. It’s part of an overall plan to expand Germany’s military into the “strongest conventional army in Europe”.

    Stefan Wolff believes Germany’s decision to step up both its military capabilities and its support for Ukraine is highly significant when considered in the context of Donald Trump’s recent threats to abandon his efforts to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv.

    Wolff, an expert in international security from the University of Birmingham, who has written regularly for The Conversation about the war in Ukraine, says here that “Berlin has the financial muscle and the technological and industrial potential to make Europe more of a peer to the US when it comes to defence spending and burden sharing.” Given the US decision to downscale its security presence in Europe, this could be of enormous consequence for Nato, he writes.



    Read more:
    Germany steps up to replace ‘unreliable’ US as guarantor of European security

    This is also an important development coming, as it does, just a few weeks before Nato’s summit in The Hague on June 24-25. As Amelia Hadfield writes, most of Nato’s members will be only too aware of Trump’s disparagement of Nato and many of its members in recent times and will be considering the potential for a future without US leadership.

    Hadfield, the head of the department of politics at the University of Surrey, notes the irony of Washington calling on the European Nato members to pay more for their own defence. Over much of the lifetime of the alliance, she writes, the US has actively discouraged European defence autonomy. Now, she says, the focus of Nato’s 31 other members must be to prepare for the likelihood that the US plans to at least significantly reduce its support for the alliance in Europe. “A clear mandate is needed, to ensure that being US-less does not render Nato itself useless,” she writes.

    This is already starting to happen, as countries join the “coalition of the willing” spearheaded by Britain and France. But Hadfield believes that boosting European capabilities within Nato is the most sensible way forward and should be the focus of next month’s summit.



    Read more:
    Nato faces a make-or-break decision about how to protect Europe and its future in next few weeks

    A lesson from history

    Donald Trump’s on again off-again relationship with Vladimir Putin is confusing enough for casual followers of world affairs. It must present a considerable headache for the foreign ministers and other diplomats tasked with calibrating their policies around the US stance on Russian aggression.

    But history suggests that the US president’s apparent willingness to allow Russia to grab Ukrainian territory in direct contravention of international law is storing up trouble for the future, writes Tim Luckhurst.

    Luckhurst is the principal of South College, Durham University, and has made a study of the way some governments were happy to allow Hitler to get away with naked aggression in the run-up to the second world war. He sees direct parallels with the way Trump and his senior officials have proposed allowing Putin to have his way with the Crimea and the four provinces of Ukraine which Russia already occupies.

    “Chamberlain’s version of appeasement failed to prevent Adolf Hitler’s aggression in the 20th century,” he writes. “Trump’s version appears equally incapable of deterring Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions in the 21st.”



    Read more:
    History shows that Donald Trump is making a serious error in appeasing Vladimir Putin

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. The debate over genocide claims in relation to Gaza intensifies – https://theconversation.com/the-debate-over-genocide-claims-in-relation-to-gaza-intensifies-257847

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Surge of ICE agreements with local police aim to increase deportations, but many police forces have found they undermine public safety

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By W. Carsten Andresen, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, St. Edward’s University

    A Kinney County sheriff’s deputy arrests an undocumented immigrant who was pulled over in March 2023 in Brackettville, Texas. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    During his first few months in office, President Donald Trump has been establishing a framework for deporting undocumented immigrants en masse. It’s something he has previously vowed will be “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country.”

    Part of that operation includes what’s known as the federal 287(g) program. Established in 1996, it allows U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, whose work is normally carried out by federal officials, to train state and local authorities to function as federal immigration officers.

    Under 287(g), for example, local police officers can interview people to determine their immigration status. They can also issue immigration detainers to jail people until agents with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement take custody.

    “Illegal immigration has wide-ranging consequences, including a troubling surge of dangerous drugs into our state,” T.K. Waters, sheriff of Jacksonville, Florida, said in a February 2025 statement to explain his office’s participation in 287(g). “We remain committed to partnering with President Trump’s administration and our federal counterparts to secure our borders, protect Floridians, and establish a framework for the rest of the nation to follow.”

    Local police authorities across the country – from Jackson County, Texas, to Frederick County, Maryland – are participating in 287(g) for similar reasons.

    Since Trump began his second term in January, ICE has increased 287(g) agreements from 135 in 25 states in December 2024 to 628 in 40 states as of May 28, 2025.

    As a criminal justice scholar, I believe the surge of 287(g) agreements sets a dangerous precedent for local policing, where forging relationships and building the trust of immigrants is a proven and effective tactic in combating crime. In my view, the expansion of 287(g) will erode that trust and makes entire communities – not just immigrants – less safe.

    Past federal-local cooperation

    There is a long history of federal authorities collaborating with local police to enforce immigration laws.

    During the Great Depression, federal officials blamed Latinos for taking American jobs, and local agencies helped them deport up to 1.8 million people to Mexico. It’s estimated that 60% of those deported were U.S. citizens.

    In the early 1930s, local police participated in immigration raids in California and other states. As author Adam Goodman details in his book “The Deportation Machine,” state and local government agencies, including social workers, welfare agencies and police, acted as “de facto immigration agents.”

    Trump’s mass deportation plan mirrors President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1954 federal immigration initiative, which resulted in 1.3 million deportations.

    As author Natalia Molina notes in her book “How Race is Made in America,” local police often served as “immigration cops” in Eisenhower’s program because the federal government “did not have enough agents to cover such a large territory” as the U.S.

    During his two terms, President Barack Obama deported over 5 million people and used the 287(g) program to help him do that, primarily to target jailed or recently arrived undocumented people. Obama’s use of 287(g) peaked at 76 agreements during his first term but dropped to 35 during his second term.

    A Justice Department investigation launched in 2008 found the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office in Arizona engaged in unconstitutional law enforcement actions against Latinos. The Justice Department found that the sheriff’s office engaged in a pattern of “unlawful seizures, including unjustified stops, detentions, and arrests, of Latinos in violation of the Fourth Amendment.”

    Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio looks on as inmates are moved in Phoenix, Ariz., in April 2009.
    Joshua Lott/Getty Images

    Power of local policing

    Forty states have adopted 287(g) agreements as of May 2025.

    This could have effects outside of the immigration laws.

    In the past 45 years, many law enforcement professionals in urban areas have highlighted the importance of forging relationships and building trust with immigrant communities. That’s because the police depend on the participation of all citizens to prevent crime and solve criminal investigations.

    But police departments across the U.S. have found that 287(g) partnerships erode that trust.

    In 1979, Los Angeles Police Chief Daryl Gates created Special Order 40 that prohibited local officers from enforcing immigration laws in response to community complaints alleging discrimination against Latinos. Gates issued the order “to encourage immigrants to cooperate with police and build community trust.”

    Other large police departments followed. In places such as Chicago and San Francisco, they shifted focus from helping federal immigration officials to prioritizing community relationships.

    William Bratton, who led six police departments, including in Boston, Los Angeles and New York, criticized 287(g) in a 2009 op-ed. He said that deputizing local officers to enforce immigration laws immediately “undermines their core public safety mission.”

    Conservative police scholar George Kelling, co-author of the broken windows theory, which presumes that visible signs of disorder can lead to crime, also expressed support for local police agencies prioritizing their community relationships.

    In a 1999 study, Kelling highlighted a San Diego police memo announcing its refusal to enforce federal immigration laws. The San Diego Police Department, he wrote, “thought through its values, mission, and functions and elaborated a policy that put public safety and harmony above aggressive attempts to ferret out undocumented aliens.”

    During Trump’s first administration, some police chiefs echoed Bratton and Kelling. They warned that employing local officers to enforce immigration measures could spark fear and damage public safety.

    Former Seattle Police Chief Kathleen O’Toole stated in 2016 that Seattle police officers were prohibited from “inquiring about a person’s immigration status.”

    And former Milwaukee Police Chief Ed Flynn announced in 2016 that his department does not enforce immigration law.

    He added, “It is our opinion, our strongly held belief that our responsibility is to protect the residents of our city. To protect them, they must trust us, they must be willing to report crimes, they must be willing to be witnesses.”

    A Cameron County sheriff’s officer puts handcuffs on a suspected undocumented immigrant detained during a traffic stop in South Texas.
    Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc/Corbis via Getty Images

    Consequences of 287(g)

    President Trump has frequently linked immigrants with higher crime rates, calling them murderers and rapists.

    But multiple studies have found that undocumented people commit fewer crimes than U.S. citizens.

    Although the Trump administration is expanding the use of local police in immigration enforcement, research casts doubt on using mass deportation as a crime reduction strategy.

    A 2018 study on 287(g) from the libertarian Cato Institute found no evidence that ICE-led partnerships with local police decreased crime rates.

    And a 2014 study on the Secure Communities Program, which calls for local police agencies to share arrestee information with federal immigration officials, found that this program has “no discernible impact” on crime in medium and large municipalities.

    The Trump administration’s expansion of 287(g) ignores the shift that some big city police departments have made away from immigration enforcement in favor of community policing. And I believe it threatens to undermine the relationship between local police and the increasingly diverse communities they serve.

    W. Carsten Andresen was employed in the past (2000-2003) at The Police Institute, a Rutger’s University Think Tank run by George L. Kelling.

    – ref. Surge of ICE agreements with local police aim to increase deportations, but many police forces have found they undermine public safety – https://theconversation.com/surge-of-ice-agreements-with-local-police-aim-to-increase-deportations-but-many-police-forces-have-found-they-undermine-public-safety-255937

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Travel with intention: Here’s a guide to ‘soft adventure’ experiences across Canada this summer

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Moira A. McDonald, Associate Professor, Director, School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Royal Roads University

    A growing number of Canadian travellers are embracing “soft adventure” travel. This trend blends a desire for active engagements in nature and educational and culturally relevant experiences with the chance to reset and relax.

    Low-risk outdoor activities such as wine tasting, canoeing, fishing, whale-watching and cycling are all examples of this growing trend. This shift reflects a “growing desire for peace of mind and rejuvenation” among Canadians in their travel experiences.

    A recent survey found 61 per cent of Canadians plan to focus on “soft travel” or “calm-cations” in 2025. While this trend spans all age groups, it’s particularly strong among Gen Z, with 81 per cent showing a preference for it.

    At the same time, many Canadians are searching for travel opportunities closer to home amid tensions between the two countries.

    In these times of global uncertainty, soft adventure tourism offers affordable options for Canadians and international visitors to explore and experience all that Canada has to offer. As tourism experts, we have some suggestions for destinations that provide travellers with a chance to pause, breathe and recharge.

    The West Coast

    Along the coast of Vancouver Island, orcas, humpback whales, sea lions, seals and porpoises draw visitors each summer. Tourism operators offer whale-watching tours all over the island, giving travellers a chance to experience its marine life firsthand. Just a day trip from Victoria, the Kinsol Trestle is a chance to walk or cycle through nature.

    For a closer look at the region’s wildlife, travellers can join sea kayaking tours in Port McNeill on Vancouver Island with Kingfisher Wilderness Adventures. Here, visitors might spot grizzly bears and they can hear stories from Kwakwaka’wakw First Nations guides and interpreters.

    British Columbia is home to more than 200 distinct Indigenous communities that offer tourism experiences ranging from pristine beaches to savouring cuisine in award-winning restaurants and more.

    On the mainland, Harrison Hot Springs, B.C. offers visitors the chance to relax in mineral hot springs for a nominal fee. Other soft adventure experiences include beach-front maintained trails for walking and hiking, as well as picnicking locations. Visitors can take the short drive to Rosedale, B.C., where a brief hike brings them to the base of Bridal Veil Falls Park.

    The Prairie provinces

    Alberta’s landscapes have served as the backdrop for many films and television series, including Brokeback Mountain, Game of Thrones, The Last of Us and The Revenant. For film tourism enthusiasts, the province offers no shortage of iconic film locations to explore. Some scenes of Game of Thrones’ final season were shot in Banff National Park.

    In Saskatchewan, Lake Diefenbaker is known for golfing, boating and walleye fishing. It’s the largest body of water in the southwest of the province, and it offers an opportunity to traverse a picturesque parkland while witnessing wildlife like elk, caribou, cougar and lynx.

    In Manitoba, Churchill offers sightings of both beluga whales and polar bears. Each summer, hundreds of belugas enter the Churchill River, and the town offers kayaking, boat tours and paddleboarding to see them.

    While you’re in Churchill, you can also see the northern lights up to 300 nights a year, along with numerous historic sites like the Prince of Wales Fort.

    Central Canada

    With 250,000 freshwater lakes, remote canyons, more than 1,200 canoe routes and 22 diveable historic shipwrecks, Ontario is filled with soft adventure travel opportunities. Travellers have countless ways to connect with nature and history in the province.

    In Tobermory, a harbour village on the province’s Bruce Peninsula, travellers can take guided tours to explore underwater shipwrecks, as well as visit the region’s distinctive “flowerpot” rock formations and natural grottos.

    A diver swims near the City of Cleveland shipwreck in Tobermory, Ont. The City of Cleveland was a 255 foot long wooden steamer that was built in Cleveland in 1882 and sunk in 1901 near Fitzwilliam island.
    (Shutterstock)

    Québec offers an experience that at times feels distinctly European. In Old Montréal and the Old Port, cobblestone streets and artisan vendors make it feel like you’re stepping into the past. Both locations are steeped in history and culinary excellence.

    Atlantic Canada

    In New Brunswick, Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park, nestled along the Bay of Fundy, offers guided tours for travellers. Visitors are encouraged to check the tidal wave schedule to see the rock formations known as sea stacks, which are caused by tidal erosion.

    Nova Scotia’s capital, Halifax, is a vibrant coastal city known for its lively nightlife and flourishing culinary scene. Across the harbour in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, visitors can go bird watching or take part in a cycling adventure on the easy-to-moderate Salt Marsh Trail. A visit to Peggy’s Cove is a must.

    The province is also home to tourism initiatives that reflect the region’s diverse cultural heritage. Among these is Elevate and Explore Black Nova Scotia, which is designed to enrich the travel experience for Black people visiting or living in the province.

    Over on Prince Edward Island, visitors can explore Lucy Maud Montgomery’s birthplace, the author of beloved childhood classic Anne of Green Gables, in Cavendish. Nearby at the museum, visitors can reimagine Anne Shirley’s iconic adventures in a return to the magic of storytelling and place, before making their way to Greenwich Beach via the boardwalk through P.E.I.’s largest sand dunes.

    In Newfoundland and Labrador, Gros Morne National Park offers visitors views of “soaring fjords and moody mountains” alongside the chance to spot puffins in their natural habitat. Recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, the park also provides opportunities for fishing.

    If closer to historical Gander, take a ferry excursion to Fogo Island, which offers bird watching and boat trips.

    The Northern Territories

    In the Yukon, travellers can engage with Indigenous tourism, arts and culture through experiences offered by the Yukon First Nation and Tourism Industry Association.

    Visitors to the Yukon can cool their feet in the cold mountain streams while trying their hand at gold panning in historic Dawson City. Once a hub of the 19th-century Klondike Gold Rush, it still features several preserved frontier-style buildings.

    In the Northwest Territories, travellers can witness the aurora borealis and take guided photography tours to see wildlife up close. Further east, Nunavut offers a range of adventure tourism opportunities, including sea kayaking, whitewater kayaking and canoeing.

    Together, these northern destinations offer travellers a chance to immerse themselves in the natural beauty, history and living cultures of Canada’s North while embracing the slower pace and meaningful experiences at the heart of soft adventure travel.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Travel with intention: Here’s a guide to ‘soft adventure’ experiences across Canada this summer – https://theconversation.com/travel-with-intention-heres-a-guide-to-soft-adventure-experiences-across-canada-this-summer-257190

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s military parade: A ‘big big celebration’ or an authoritarian ritual?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Irene Gammel, Professor & Director, Modern Literature and Culture Research Centre and Gallery, Toronto Metropolitan University

    U.S. Army soldiers march along Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. during U.S. President Donald Trump’s Inaugural Parade in January 2017. (Kalie Jones)

    Born on June 14, 1946, United States President Donald Trump turns 79 in 2025 — the same day that the U.S. Army, founded in 1775, marks its 250th anniversary. To mark the anniversary, Trump proclaimed that “we’re gonna have a big, big celebration.”

    Plans drawn up by the army call for 6,600 soldiers, 150 vehicles, 50 helicopters, seven military bands and thousands of civilians. The parade will also reportedly include 34 horses, two mules and a dog.

    Dismissed by many as a costly vanity project by some, the parade invites a deeper question: what kind of political work does a birthday celebration like this actually do?

    Far from trivial or benign, Trump’s spectacle draws on a long history of authoritarian leaders who use ritualized celebrations to bind personal power to national identity. The most notorious example, Adolf Hitler, turned his birthdays into massive national events with military parades, mass rallies and highly estheticized scenes of domestic cheer.

    These displays blurred dominance and intimacy, fatherliness and force — an approach revived today in the digital era, where curated imagery and social media entangle leadership with affective spectacle.

    Fascist birthday culture

    I was born and raised in Germany. I’m acutely aware that Hitler’s birthday still casts a shadow and that such dates continue to carry political weight, with the rituals involved doing long-term political work.

    During the Third Reich, the Führer’s birthday — modeLled on the Kaiser’s — became a mass propaganda event, blending public spectacle with personal attachment.

    As German philosopher Theodor Adorno noted, fascist rituals portrayed the authoritarian leader as both a “superman” and an ordinary, flawed “average person.” This duality encouraged intimate identification and awe, much like the dynamic between a patriarchal father and child.

    Trump echoes this dynamic through a mix of paternal posturing, hypermasculine bluster and expansive nationalism. Whereas Hitler relied on the latest photograph and film technology, today’s spectacles are amplified by digital media’s participatory culture.

    German leader Adolf Hitler reviewing a military parade held in celebration of his 47th birthday on April 20, 1936.
    (German Federal Archives), CC BY

    Neo-Nazi groups across North America and Europe still mark Hitler’s birthday with cakes, cookies, memes and tweets; often disarmingly “cute” images overlaid with disturbing swastikas and jokes. In his 2017 paper, sociologist Christian Fuchs shows that the most retweeted neo-Nazi post in his study was “Wake and bake #HitlersBirthday #420,” blending cannabis culture with fascist nostalgia to deflect horror through humour.

    The blurred boundaries between the national and the personal feed meme culture, where, as communications scholar Limor Shifman writes, “small units of culture” spread through imitation, often cloaked in play.

    Amid mounting pressure on various institutions in the U.S. — universities, courts and public discourse — the military/birthday parade is an extravaganza that fuses esthetics and propaganda to cement authority, suppress dissent and consolidate power.

    Power aesthetics of military pageantry

    By combining a military display with a personal celebration, Trump’s birthday parade stages a grand spectacle of power. Key here is the presence of thousands of soldiers in military uniform, which creates a “persona and a powerful collective presence,” as fashion scholar Jennifer Craik writes.

    Uniforms signal discipline and belonging, but also intimidate and threaten. Fashion writer Colin McDowell calls the uniform a “spectacle” steeped in associations with power and eroticism, a garment long linked to theatricality and role-playing.

    Nowhere was this more explicit than under European fascism and colonialism. Uniforms were engineered to seduce, often fetishized: streamlined silhouettes, tight jackets and black leather boots. As Craik notes, such imagery was not incidental; it was the visual grammar of domination. As sociologist Klaus Theweleit observes, fascist power had to be seen, desired and even fantasized.

    Trump’s parade is a show of force. Its sheer scale — bands, vehicles, helicopters — performs strength and legitimacy, marking who belongs and who does not. But the birthday celebration also turns attention back to the man himself, reminding us that authoritarianism is not only about intimidation but also about the persona of the autocrat.

    Parades staged for Adolf Hitler’s 50th birthday.

    Authoritarian scripts, then and now

    Autocratic regimes work hard to fashion the leader into a man of the people: familiar, relatable and someone to be admired. Think of Hitler in his motorcade, hands outstretched toward the crowd.

    My father, just 10 years old, was part of that spectacle at one of these parades on a mandatory school trip, lined up along the street. Yet as the motorcade neared, he was shoved aside in the crush. What stayed with him wasn’t Hitler — he never saw him — but the fanatical woman who pushed him to get closer.

    The point was the crowd itself, kept at a fever pitch with ever-new spectacles like Hitler’s 50th birthday on April 20, 1939, declared a national holiday. German Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels staged it as what historian Ian Kershaw called “an astonishing extravaganza of the Führer cult;” a visual and military spectacle widely broadcast.

    One gift, a model of the FW 200 Condor, later became Hitler’s official plane. Trump’s new luxury Air Force One, “a gift” from Qatar, is also part of his visual narrative. The symbolism is eerie: once again, the personal cloaks itself in national power.

    The cult of MAGA

    In the end, Trump’s militarized birthday parade solicits not just admiration but political allegiance. Like past authoritarian rituals, it manipulates affect through military pageantry to elevate the leader as both a symbol and supreme commander.

    The spectacle demands emotional submission with the goal being identification with the leader. It exchanges democratic freedom for a vision of unity under a single figure. However wrapped in humour or patriotic kitsch, Trump’s parade rehearses an authoritarian script with disturbingly familiar cues.

    What appears as celebration is, in fact, a rehearsal. It signals a dangerous shift toward personal glorification and a political culture where pageantry replaces participation and adoration displaces dissent.

    As history warns, that is when democracy begins to give way.

    Irene Gammel receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Trump’s military parade: A ‘big big celebration’ or an authoritarian ritual? – https://theconversation.com/trumps-military-parade-a-big-big-celebration-or-an-authoritarian-ritual-257536

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Before the bump: Can pre-pregnancy planning affect child development?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sabrina Faleschini, Assistant Professor, Université Laval

    Enhancing physical and psychological health months or even weeks before conception may have powerful positive effects on offspring. (Shutterstock)

    Anticipating the conception of a child can be accompanied by a lot of uncertainty about how to plan for pregnancy and parenthood. But relatively few people are aware that the things they do months or years before conceiving can influence the development of their future children.

    The preconception period is often overlooked by prospective parents, but is crucial as it sets the foundation for healthy pregnancies and, ultimately, thriving children. Optimizing the physical and mental health of both parents during this time can help create an environment that gives their offspring the best possible start in life.

    While it’s well known that exposure to adverse physical or psychological conditions during pregnancy can powerfully affect child development, emerging evidence suggests that factors occurring before conception can also have lasting effects on offspring.

    As professors of child development and perinatal psychiatry, our work is aimed at identifying which preconception factors have the potential to influence offspring outcomes, and how to intervene to reduce their effects to give all children the best chance to succeed and thrive.

    Enhancing the physical and mental health of both parents during this time can help create an optimal environment.
    (Shutterstock)

    Impact of the pregnancy planning period

    The period of pregnancy planning represents a critical opportunity for future parents to optimize the lives of their children. While some physical and mental health factors shift over time, others are relatively stable. Regardless, enhancing physical and psychological health months or even weeks before conception may have powerful positive effects on offspring.

    For example, public health authorities recommend that women of childbearing age take a folic acid supplement, as this can prevent neural tube defects and enhance the long-term verbal and social skills of offspring.

    Maintaining a healthy diet (for example, eating plenty of fruits, vegetables, whole grains and protein) and a healthy weight before pregnancy is also associated with a lower risk of behavioural problems, improved motor and communication skills and better academic achievement.

    Ultimately, optimizing one’s physical health has many benefits for parents and their children and paves the way for improving their mental health as well.

    Mental health and pregnancy planning

    Even though planning a pregnancy may be stressful for some, optimizing one’s mental health has benefits not only for parents, but also for their future children.

    For example, children whose mothers experience a worsening of depression from preconception to postpartum were less able to control their behaviour and attention. Furthermore, high levels of stress in mothers pre-conceptually are linked to more negative emotionality and impulsivity in children.

    As a result, increasing the focus of public health efforts on the mental health of parents could be crucial to enhancing child development as well.

    Partners are important too

    Even though the health of mothers and birthing parents can have an important impact on the development of future offspring, healthy partners can also help promote positive long-term outcomes in children.

    Healthy partners can also help promote positive long-term outcomes in children.
    (Shutterstock)

    For example, paternal mental health problems present prior to pregnancy increase the risk of pre-term delivery, which is linked to a higher likelihood of behavioural problems and academic difficulties in children later in life.

    Partners can also provide support and motivation to improve and/or maintain the healthy habits of mothers and birthing parents, which can help optimize offspring development.

    Giving future children the best start in life

    A number of practical steps can be taken by parents when planning a pregnancy to help enhance child development.

    Eating a healthy diet and engaging in regular exercise can improve your physical health.

    Optimizing mental health through exercise, nurturing relationships, building social networks, managing stress and seeking counselling and other help when needed can promote well-being during this important time.

    We’re still learning about the preconception period

    Research aimed at understanding the long-term effects of preconception conditions on later child development is still relatively new. Our work is attempting to expand this knowledge base by developing a cohort study that begins in the preconception phase and follows parents throughout pregnancy and into the postpartum period.

    So far, more than 500 women across Canada have joined the study, and we are continuing to enrol new participants until the end of August 2025. Please note that the web page is in French, but English speakers are welcome to join the study. However, since all research materials are in French, participants must be able to understand written French to take part in the study.

    Our work will examine how parents’ mental health evolves across the perinatal period. This study is intended to help us understand the transition to parenthood and how factors present before conception can influence children’s development.

    The pregnancy planning period is a time when parents can make positive changes in their lives that can benefit their health and the development of their future children. Investing in the physical and mental health of both parents is critical for preparing them to welcome a healthy child and can benefit both their family and society.

    Sabrina Faleschini receives funding from the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et culture.

    Ryan Van Lieshout does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Before the bump: Can pre-pregnancy planning affect child development? – https://theconversation.com/before-the-bump-can-pre-pregnancy-planning-affect-child-development-250335

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK government is considering mandatory chemical castration for sex offenders – it’s an ethical and legal minefield

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lisa Forsberg, Senior Research Fellow, Uehiro Oxford Institute, University of Oxford

    Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood is looking into a potential “national rollout” of chemical castration for sex offenders. This is a process of lowering testosterone levels with the intention of reducing libido.

    The proposal is one recommendation outlined in the recent independent sentencing review that was commissioned to investigate prison overcrowding and consider alternatives to imprisonment. The review found that 21% of adults serving immediate custodial sentences had been convicted of sexual offences – making them a significant proportion of the prison population. The idea appears to be that chemical castration would make offenders’ release from prison less dangerous for the public.

    A pilot scheme of voluntary chemical castration is already running and is about to be extended to 20 British prisons. But while the review emphasised that consent is a key tenet of medical law, Mahmood is reportedly investigating whether chemical castration could be made mandatory. This raises important ethical and legal questions.

    Is chemical castration ethical?

    Chemical castration is a dual-purpose intervention. It can be used both to benefit those who receive testosterone-reducing substances – sex offenders may themselves find their sexual desires to be a problem and so wish to have their intensity reduced by medical means – and to protect the public.

    One key question, therefore, is what we are aiming to achieve in a programme of chemical castration in the prison population. Chemical castration may reduce the risk of reoffending but fail to improve a sex offender’s life. It may do the opposite – improving their wellbeing without protecting the public from their actions. Which goal are we aiming for?

    This matters because the ethical permissibility of chemical castration is directly related to its purpose. Standard medical interventions are typically ethically permissible when and because they are expected to benefit recipients who validly consent.

    If the goal is not to benefit the recipient but to protect the public, this question is more complicated. We don’t normally get to consent to being incarcerated or quarantined, for example. These are situations imposed on us by the state. So do we get to bypass consent in the case of chemical castration for people who are incarcerated?

    And while some offenders may prefer to have their problematic sexual desires suppressed, chemical castration can have significant side-effects, including weight gain and mood changes.

    If chemical castration does reduce problematic desires, sex offenders may benefit from it, side-effects notwithstanding. But it is unclear exactly how this potential “benefit” should be understood. Is it beneficial for sex offenders to have their sexual desires attenuated? Does avoiding future punishment itself count as a benefit? Can it also be beneficial to offenders who do not consent to the intervention? And is it ever ethically permissible to provide chemical castration without benefit to the recipient? We need a more clearly articulated understanding of benefit, and its interaction with consent, to determine when chemical castration is ethically permissible.

    Is it legal?

    Purpose also matters for legal justification. Interventions that use medical means – as chemical castration does – are usually lawful, again, because they are expected to benefit recipients. So, again, the lack of clarity over who “benefits” and how benefit should be understood is a problem.

    My analysis of the legal framework in England and Wales shows that providing chemical castration to sex offenders may be consistent with obligations imposed on UK public authorities under the European Convention on Human Rights (via the Human Rights Act 1998). This may be the case even without recipients’ consent, especially when the purpose is public protection. But here too, it is necessary to clarify how the benefit or harm interacts with consent.

    A dilemma for doctors

    A rollout of chemical castration to sex offenders – whether voluntary or mandatory – also raises ethical and legal dilemmas for the people administering the programme.

    Forensic psychiatrist Professor Don Grubin has said that the administration of chemical castration is “about doctors treating patients, rather than doctors doing a job for criminal justice agencies, but a side effect is that reoffending is likely to be reduced”. However, it’s not clear that chemical castration should always be understood primarily as “doctors treating patients” in the way we normally expect for therapeutic interventions. The idea that doctors, in administering chemical castration, are always acting primarily to benefit the recipient, and that public protection in the form of reduced recidivism risk is a mere side-effect obscures the ethical and legal issues at play. A better approach is to clarify the different values and duties at stake and how doctors and others involved in provision should weigh them against one another.

    Chemical castration will often generate conflicting duties, which we must find ways to navigate. Can it be compatible with professional obligations to provide interventions that aren’t in recipients’ clinical interests if it benefits others? Do professional obligations vary according to an intervention’s purpose? Chemical castration exposes tensions in the ethical and legal obligations that individual and institutional providers owe to recipients and to society.

    I’m exploring these questions in research investigating how we ought to understand, evaluate, and regulate dual-purpose interventions. These are questions the government, and those involved in chemically castrating sex offenders must also confront.

    Lisa Forsberg has received funding from the British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship scheme (award pf170028), the Journal of Moral Education Trust through the British Academy /Leverhulme Small Research Grants scheme (award SRG2324241695), the European Research Council (grant number 819757), and the Uehiro Foundation for Ethics and Education.

    – ref. The UK government is considering mandatory chemical castration for sex offenders – it’s an ethical and legal minefield – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-government-is-considering-mandatory-chemical-castration-for-sex-offenders-its-an-ethical-and-legal-minefield-257795

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate change: no reprieve from heat this decade as globally agreed 1.5°C limit looms

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    Temperature limits the world agreed to avoid are looming into view.

    The global temperature has been 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial average for almost two years now. The reason, overwhelmingly, is that greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs from the burning of fossil fuels and forests.

    In a new analysis, the World Meteorological Organization has predicted that global average warming will remain above 1.5°C for the rest of this decade. By some measure, this would place the world nearly halfway to the lower limit of the Paris agreement, which urged countries to avoid warming of 1.5°C as a 20-year average.

    Exceeding a globally agreed temperature limit is scary. Perhaps scarier is the speed at which we appear to be breaking our promises.

    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    Half a year of record heat

    After 2024 was confirmed as the hottest in 175 years of temperature-keeping, some climate scientists expected 2025 to be cooler. El Niño, the warm phase in a natural cycle of Earth’s climate, was subsiding and the cooler La Niña was set to kick in.

    This climate fluctuation, centred on the Pacific Ocean, slowly sloshes water and heat between ocean basins every few years and disrupts weather patterns worldwide.

    “Typically, La Niña will lower the global temperature by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius,” explains Richard P Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading. “However, this time around, it’s apparently not enough to stop the world warming – even temporarily.”



    Read more:
    Record January heat suggests La Niña may be losing its ability to keep global warming in check

    January 2025 was the hottest on record – a whole 1.7°C hotter than an average January before the mass burning of coal, oil and gas. Allan argues that “human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming these natural climate patterns”.

    The ocean has absorbed most of the excess heat generated by our emissions, but this blue buffer between us and a hotter atmosphere shows signs of fraying. A research station that has been taking the temperature of the western English Channel for more than 120 years now reports “almost continuous marine heatwave” conditions according to oceanographer Tim Smyth of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory.



    Read more:
    What a 120-year-old research station is telling us about the warming of the sea around the UK

    A record-hot Atlantic Ocean is bad news for people living in the Caribbean and the south-east of North America. In its latest forecast for the 2025 hurricane season, which begins on June 1, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an “above average” number of cyclonic storms.

    Much of this elevated risk is due to warmer seawater at the ocean surface fuelling stronger storms. But there’s only so much that meteorologists can do to stay ahead of the warming climate, as the rapid rate of global heating stretches long-range forecasting to its breaking point.



    Read more:
    The climate is changing so fast that we haven’t seen how bad extreme weather could get

    “The rapidly changing climate means we have not necessarily experienced the extremes that modern-day atmospheric and oceanic warmth can produce,” say atmospheric scientist Simon H Lee (University of St Andrews), climate scientist Hayley J Fowler and meteorologist Paul Davies (both of Newcastle University).

    “In a stable climate, scientists would have multiple decades for the atmosphere to get into its various configurations and drive extreme events, such as heatwaves, floods or droughts,” they say. Scientists typically use weather observations gathered over 30-year periods to characterise the climate.

    “But in our rapidly changing climate, we effectively have only a few years – not enough to experience everything the climate has to offer.”

    How hot will it get?

    Compared with its average temperature in the latter half of the 19th century, which is what scientists typically refer to as the climate’s pre-industrial baseline, Earth is on track to be 2.7°C hotter by 2100, according to an annual report by leading experts of Earth system science, published in October 2024.

    This conclusion is based on governments meeting their emissions goals (a big if) and it may already be out of date, given the unexpectedly hot first half of 2025.

    Fossil fuel emissions have yet to reach a plateau.
    Sunshine Seeds/Shutterstock

    On its own, this charitable estimate projects nearly double the level of warming attained so far. It’s unclear if civilisation could survive climate conditions like these, which are radically more hostile than anything our ancestors have experienced.

    What’s behind the accelerating rate of global warming? Here are two of the report authors, ecologists Thomas Newsome of the University of Sydney and William Ripple of Oregon State University.

    “Each year, we track 35 of the Earth’s vital signs, from sea ice extent to forests. [In 2024], 25 are now at record levels, all trending in the wrong directions,” they say.



    Read more:
    Unprecedented peril: disaster lies ahead as we track towards 2.7°C of warming this century

    While renewable energy sources like wind and solar have grown rapidly, fossil fuel use remains 14 times greater. What’s more, aerosols that are effective at reflecting the Sun’s energy back into space and cooling the Earth (soot is one example) are thought to be falling in the atmosphere.

    “Other environmental issues are now feeding into climate change,” Newsome and Ripple continue. Deforestation is shrinking the amount of carbon stored on land while rising temperatures and extreme weather are drying out and burning other carbon-rich habitats, like marshes and peatlands.

    Sea ice is melting too, ensuring the ocean absorbs yet more of the heat being trapped by an increasingly thick blanket of greenhouse gas.

    Bleak. But how much the planet warms this century is a moving target: everything we do today, and in coming years, will lower it. On this front, Sven Teske has, if not good news, then less bad news to share.



    Read more:
    Earth is heading for 2.7°C warming this century. We may avoid the worst climate scenarios – but the outlook is still dire

    “Humanity has shifted track enough to avert the worst climate future,” he says.

    “Renewables, energy efficiency and other measures have shifted the dial. The worst case scenario of expanded coal use, soaring emissions and a much hotter world is vanishingly unlikely.”

    – ref. Climate change: no reprieve from heat this decade as globally agreed 1.5°C limit looms – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-no-reprieve-from-heat-this-decade-as-globally-agreed-1-5-c-limit-looms-257263

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –