Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne
A fire at a nightclub in North Macedonia has killed at least 59 people and injured more than 150. The blaze broke out at the Pulse nightclub in Kočani, where around 500 people were attending a concert.
Witnesses reported that pyrotechnics used during the performance ignited the ceiling, causing flames to spread rapidly.
Authorities have arrested 20 people so far, including the club’s manager. Investigations continue. The North Macedonian government has declared a seven-day mourning period.
While building fires are not limited to nightclubs, many of the most devastating building fires in history have happened in nightclubs around the world. So why are nightclubs such a risky place for deadly fires?
A long history of nightclub fires
A look at past nightclub fires shows just how common and deadly they’ve been in the past 100 years. We identified at least 24 nightclub fires where ten or more people died since 1940.
Collectively, these 24 incidents account for at least 2,800 deaths, with nearly 1,300 in the 21st century alone.
Now, North Macedonia’s Pulse nightclub joins this long list.
Why are nightclubs so risky for fires?
A review of past nightclub fires we’ve collated in our database reveals common patterns. Two key factors have contributed to the frequency and severity of these fire disasters.
1. Pyrotechnics, fireworks and flammable materials
One of the most common causes of nightclub fires has been the use of pyrotechnics in enclosed spaces. Pyrotechnics are controlled chemical reactions designed to produce flames, smoke, or light effects.
They have been involved in at least six of the deadliest nightclub fires, including the recent Pulse nightclub fire in North Macedonia, as well as The Station (United States, 2003), Kiss (Brazil, 2013), Colectiv (Romania, 2015), Lame Horse (Russia, 2009) and República Cromañón (Argentina, 2004).
In some cases, fireworks – which are different from stage pyrotechnics and sometimes illegally used indoors – have played a role. The Lame Horse nightclub fire, which killed 156 people in Russia in 2009, was caused by a spark from fireworks igniting a low ceiling covered in flammable plastic decorations.
Foam insulation, wooden panelling, plastic decorations and carpeted walls have all been key factors in past nightclub fires. In Cocoanut Grove (Boston, 1942), artificial palm trees and other flammable decorations accelerated the blaze.
2. Overcrowding and blocked or insufficient exits
Evacuation failures have been a factor in nearly every major nightclub fire.
In some instances, crowds may not immediately recognise the severity of the situation, especially if they mistake alarms for false alarms or special effects (for example, smoke machines, loud music).
Further, patrons could be intoxicated due alcohol or other drugs. Intoxication combined with potential disorientation due to dim lighting can further reduce judgement during an evacuation.
Clearly, the best way to protect patrons is to prevent a fire from breaking out in the first place. But in settings where fire risks are inherently high, the ability to evacuate people swiftly is crucial.
Nightclubs are among the most crowded indoor spaces. While crowd density is part of a nightclub’s design and atmosphere, overcrowding beyond legal capacity is common.
A crowd that has gradually gathered over several hours must suddenly evacuate in seconds or minutes to survive a fire. This is made more difficult by narrow hallways and limited exits, which quickly become bottlenecks when hundreds of people attempt to escape at once.
What’s more, not all exits are always accessible during a fire. In several past nightclub disasters, locked or obstructed emergency exits have significantly worsened the death toll.
Minimising the risks
Nightclubs are uniquely vulnerable to fires due to a combination of structural risks, unsafe materials, overcrowding and regulatory failures.
While human behaviour plays a role in how fires unfold in confined spaces such as nightclubs, people should be able to go for a night out and expect to come home safely.
Regulatory oversight must ensure strict compliance with fire codes. Venues should have fire suppression systems (such as sprinklers, fire extinguishers and smoke detectors) to control or contain fires before they spread, and adequate exits.
Nightclubs should ban indoor pyrotechnics and fireworks, as history has repeatedly shown their deadly consequences.
Capacity limits must be enforced, and emergency exits should always be accessible.
Public awareness is also key. Patrons need to understand the real risk of fires in nightclubs, and be prepared to evacuate swiftly but calmly if danger arises.
Ruggiero Lovreglio receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi (NZ) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (USA).
Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Mar 17, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 17 00:37:02 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
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SPC AC 170037
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS…
…SUMMARY… Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
…01Z Update…
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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The US government has sent a 36-point questionnaire to some Australian researchers who are working on joint projects with US colleagues.
ABC Radio National reports at least eight Australian universities are involved. Their research areas include foreign aid, medicine, vaccines and defence. The New York Times reports a similar document has also been sent to other overseas organisations with US funding links.
The questions are wide-ranging and cover academics’ links to China as well as their projects’ focus on topics such as diversity, inclusion and gender identity, as well as climate change.
Some of the specific questions include:
Can you confirm that your organisation has not received ANY funding from PRC People’s Republic of China, Russia, Cuba or Iran?
Can you confirm that this is no DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] project or DEI elements of the project? [sic]
Does this project take appropriate measures to protect women and to defend against gender ideology as defined in the below Executive Order?
Can you confirm this is not a climate or “environmental justice” project or include such elements?
The survey also covers issues such as secure borders with Mexico, ending government waste, terrorism, the war on opioids, and “eradicating anti-Christian bias”.
Concern and anger
In response, the Group of Eight (which represents Australia’s top research universities) and Australian Academy of Science have separately raised concerns with the Australian government about the survey and its impact on Australian research.
The Group of Eight says the US has already suspended or terminated research grants with six of its eight member universities.
The National Tertiary Education Union also labelled the survey “blatant foreign interference”.
A spokesperson for Education Minister Jason Clare says Australia is
“engaging with the US government to understand what these measures mean for future funding and collaboration”.
Are Trump’s orders legal?
Trump’s executive orders are currently the subject of numerous lawsuits in the US. Plaintiffs say Trump’s orders violate the First and Fifth Amendments – those dealing with protection of free speech, equal protection and “due process of law” when depriving a citizen of property.
Whether Trump’s orders are legal or not is a tricky question, and will likely come down the judges hearing each case.
US involvement in Australian research is significant. According to the Academy of Science, US government research funding involving Australian research organisations was $A386 million in 2024.
It is arguable Trump’s orders infringe Australian sovereignty. But the US has always had the capacity to interfere in Australian university research – it just hasn’t actually done it until now.
Research contracts signed between universities and funding bodies can contain all kinds of requirements, so US law can end up applying to Australian researchers. When the AUKUS deal was announced in 2021, a huge question was how universities would comply with notoriously harsh US export control laws.
The survey indicates it was issued by the US Office of Management and Budget and appears to be supported by the US CHIPS and Science Act (which authorises certain research investments) and National Science Foundation policies. So, while Australian researchers could potentially ignore these questionnaires, that would legally give a US funding body grounds to cancel the funding contract.
Our foreign interference laws also weren’t designed for situations like this. Even if they did, Trump is the current head of the US government, and is likely to be immune from prosecution
Statutory tests for foreign interference – including criteria that such acts are covert, and/or involve threats of harm – simply don’t apply to a US president like Trump.
So legally, it doesn’t look like there is much Australia can do about Trump’s orders.
What can Australia do?
Some newly unemployed researchers are now poised to leave the US, taking their research with them. This poses a potential security risk, with countries such as China and Russia both keen to capitalise on Trump’s decisions.
But other nations are also aware of the possibilities. The European Union has already offered displaced US scientists a more “sympathetic place to work”. South Korea and Canada are also marketing themselves as attractive options. Australia could follow suit.
The federal government is currently doing a strategic review of Australia’s research and development system. This could make diversifying our research partners a national priority.
Either way, given such radical changes in the US, Australia needs to seriously reconsider how it is funding and structuring research.
Brendan Walker-Munro has consulted for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor, and is also an Adjunct Expert Associate of the National Security College. He has received funding from the Social Cyber Institute and Active Cyber Defence Alliance.
Source: United States Senator for New York Charles E Schumer
Senator Schumer said, “Congresswoman Lowey was the heart of the Hudson Valley and my friend of over 40 years. She was a trailblazer who ran the Appropriations Committee with amazing effectiveness. So many stand on her shoulders and her impact continues to resonate years after her retirement. Above all else though, Congresswoman Lowey was a kind hearted person, always putting others first and caring for their well-being. Her work helped improve the lives of millions, especially in the Hudson Valley where she will forever remain a beloved institution. I will very much miss her.”
Drivers are advised that the slow lane and shoulder of Highway 1 westbound at Willingdon Avenue remains closed to support an ongoing police investigation.
This lane closure on Highway 1 westbound may remain in place into the Monday-morning commute.
Drivers should plan extra time for their commute or choose an alternative route.
For updates, check Drive BC: https://www.drivebc.ca/
Please attribute to Detective Inspector Kevan Verry, Counties Manukau CIB:
Police are continuing with a critical incident investigation surrounding the events leading up a fatal crash in Penrose yesterday afternoon.
One person has died, and another person remains in a critical condition after a driver allegedly fled from Police and crashed on Great South Road just before 2pm.
Today, Police are in a position to release some further information as our enquiries continue.
A 22-year-old man will appear in Manukau District Court on Friday charged with reckless driving causing death and reckless driving causing injury following yesterday’s incident.
Shortly before 2pm, a Police officer sighted a vehicle travelling at excess speed along Vestey Drive.
Moments later the vehicle crossed the centre line and crashed into two other vehicles near the intersection of Great South Road, Penrose and Sundown Lane.
A passenger from one of the vehicles struck was pronounced deceased at the scene and the driver of the same vehicle was transported to hospital where they remain in a critical condition.
The driver of the other vehicle hit sustained minor injuries and did not require medical treatment.
The driver of the speeding vehicle was transported to hospital in a critical condition, and remains in hospital in a stable condition.
We would like to acknowledge the impact that yesterday’s events will have had on the community and our thoughts are with everyone involved.
We are providing support to those affected and their families, as well as our staff who were impacted.
Until the next of kin notifications have been carried out, further details regarding the deceased are unable to be released.
There are now several investigations underway, including a critical incident investigation and a policy, practice, and procedure investigation.
As is standard procedure, the Independent Police Conduct Authority has also been notified.
A scene examination was completed yesterday and the Serious Crash Unit and staff are working to establish the full circumstances surrounding the crash.
Police are also appealing to any witnesses who may have seen the a grey Holden Commodore in the Panama Road, Great South Road and Vestey Drive areas between 1.30pm-2pm yesterday.
Anyone with information or footage is urged to contact Police to assist with the investigation.
Please update Police online or call 105 and use the reference number 250316/5377 or cite ‘Operation Kershaw ’.
Australian artists can expect more money in their pockets when their works are resold overseas, with international reciprocity being extended to a further nine countries under the Albanese Labor Government’s Resale Royalty Scheme.
The nine countries are: Estonia, Greece, Lithuania, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Uruguay. This takes the list of total participating countries to 26.
Under the Scheme, visual artists are entitled to a five per cent share on eligible resales of their original works valued at $1,000 or more in Australia, and the ability to access local schemes in participating countries when their works are resold there.
The extension delivers on the Government’s commitment outlined in the National Cultural Policy, Revive, to enhance the scheme to provide royalty payments to artists, including First Nations artists, under international arrangements.
The changes come into effect on 31 March 2025.
Minister for the Arts, Tony Burke, said the expanded list would give artists the remuneration they deserve.
“We’re ensuring Australian artists are properly compensated for their work when they first sell it and on future sales. Just like when you purchase a book or an album, the artist gets a cut each time.
“So far more than $16 million in royalties have been generated, which artists would have otherwise missed out on.
“Our Government is committed to creating a fairer playing field and supporting our home-grown talent both locally and abroad.”
The Resale Royalty Right for Visual Artist Act 2009 provides visual artists with royalty rights similar to other creators such as songwriters or authors.
Under the act, auction houses and galleries are required to report resales to Copyright Agency, which determines eligibility, collects royalties and pays them to artists.
arlier today, Governor Kathy Hochul was a guest on MSNBC’s “PoliticsNation” with Reverend Al Sharpton.
AUDIO: The Governor’s remarks are available in audio form here.
A rush transcript of the Governor’s remarks is available below:
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Just two months into Trump’s second term, the administration’s unprecedented policy moves on trade, immigration and civil rights put the President on a political collision course with the state he was born in and the city he once called home. Joining me now to talk about it in the studio is New York’s Democratic Governor, Kathy Hochul. Governor, first, thank you for being with us and thank you for your moving message at the funeral of NAACP Hazel Dukes. We were all so moved by what you had to say.
Governor Hochul: Thank you. Your words were profound as well, Reverend Al.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Thank you. Governor, you met with President Trump at the White House on Friday. What can you share with us about that meeting in terms of the tone and the substance of your conversation?
Governor Hochul: Well, I reached out to the President again because there is so much I need to deliver for New York and New York City in particular. I need to get Penn Station done and make sure we have money for the Second Avenue subway, which is so important.
I want to make sure that we have an understanding on immigration that says, “We’ll help you when you have serious, violent criminals you need to get off the streets.” I’ve always said that. We’ve done that under the Biden Administration. But we’re not going to be there to allow you to just take people off the streets and split up families.
And so, we had a conversation also about tariffs. I want to talk about the impact of tariffs on New York. It is devastating. Absolutely devastating for our farmers in upstate New York, for our factory workers who aren’t sure if they’re going to be able to do phase two of a major project that was in Buffalo, my hometown, right on the border with Canada. So, I needed to be able to continue the conversation with him on some of our energy policies. I talked about how important offshore wind was, talked about opportunities for small modular reactors so we could power the innovation economy in New York. I need to keep that dialogue going.
But, they also understand this about me: My willingness to talk about areas where we could have a common interest in, does not take away from my responsibility as a leader of this state to fight back, and fight back hard, when the line is crossed and you’ve hurt New Yorkers or attacked our values.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Now, President Trump wants to get rid of the congestion pricing program you put in place. However, he also wants a natural gas pipeline built in New York State. And you mentioned — you just mentioned — he may be interested in a Penn Station redesign. Did you get the sense in your meeting with the President that he’s open to making deals on these issues?
Governor Hochul: You know, I don’t want to get into private conversations, but I spent an enormous amount of my time in there talking about how congestion pricing is working. It really is working.
I think a lot of people who are naysayers who said, “This is going to crush the City. Nobody’s going to come in,” they were wrong and I wanted him to see the data that I had — more recent numbers. Broadway is up, you know, retail sales are up $900 million, we have more people on the streets, walking around going into stores, and a 10 percent increase in riders on the subway.
So all the fears that were out there are absolutely unfounded, and people are getting to the City so much faster. So I needed to help walk him through what I thought were the real reasons why we need to keep this and not have it shut down, which is what he said the administration would do beginning this Friday.
But as I’ve said — and I was very aggressive in this — we are not turning off the cameras. This is our program, we put this in place, we have the proper approvals, and we feel, if necessary, we’ll be successful in court. But I was hoping it wouldn’t have to get that far, but time will tell.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Alright. New York was one of three northern states hit with surcharges on Canadian electricity this month after Trump imposed tariffs. What’s your message to the President on trade wars, and what can you do to protect the State economically?
Governor Hochul: Our states, our residents, the people you promised to lower the cost of everything on day one — they’re the collateral damage in this war. And there may be some long term gain that the President sees, but why are we making people suffer right now? They’ve been through enough: Inflation, the pandemic — our people are hurting. They just want people to give them money back in their pockets.
So that’s at odds with what I’m trying to do in New York, which is find a way to get over up to $5,000 in families’ pockets with child tax credits and the largest middle class tax rate cut in 70 years, and to put money from the inflation rebate. We collected so much money in sales tax because of inflation, and I want to put it back in people’s pockets.
So, contrary to what is happening in Washington where they don’t seem to care about the people they promised lower prices, because tariffs will drive up prices. We are doing the exact opposite here in New York.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Now, two of your fellow New Yorkers, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, disagreed last week on whether to go along with Trump and the Republican spending bill. You’ve talked about leading the resistance against Trump, but you are also trying to work with him. What are your thoughts about the debate that’s going on within the Democratic Party about how to respond to the President?
Governor Hochul: We need to get back on the same page because anytime we’re not like this, it benefits the Republicans. We need to realize that. And so, yes, families can disagree on an approach. I get that. But let us not forget who brought us here, who brought us to this place. We should not have had a continuing resolution that could hurt people, and the Republicans in the House who are voting for programs that could be devastating — we have to stop that and be smart about knowing who we’re attacking and who we have to go up against, and it’s not each other.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Now, let’s get to some local issues. You and I have worked together on combating crime in the streets and on the subways, and we’ve joined with Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, on the issue of discovery law reforms to make sure victims of crime get their day in court. I’m concerned about domestic violence and some of the records that they brought out to me about that — DA Bragg. Where are we with that?
Governor Hochul: I have introduced legislation in my Budget — and we’re negotiating it right now, I’ll be back in Albany tomorrow and I’ll be negotiating on this — but what I want to do is talk about the reforms.
Back in 2019, important reforms were put in place because the system was skewed against offenders. It really was. Prosecutors were withholding too much information, the law had to change, and I support that. But it has now gone the other way. The pendulum has swung so far that defense lawyers are scamming the system, withholding information to the last minute, or that they’re saying that if even a tiny bit of information that you already have a duplicate bit of information that confirms it — that’s a reason to throw out a case altogether.
And you’re absolutely right. It is the victims of domestic violence and rape. Think about the women who had to go through the horrible, horrible process of exposing their lives, being willing to prosecute someone and go stand up against someone who harmed them. And then to have a judge and prosecutors say, “We can’t bring it forward because the information was too late.” I mean, I’m talking about minor technicalities. If there’s something significant, yes, of course you should not have the case dismissed. But I’m talking about just fixing the system, because before the reforms were put in place, 42 percent of cases brought in New York City were dismissed. Now it’s 62 percent. That’s a lot of people based on technicalities. And I want the Legislature to understand that. And your voice is so important, and I appreciate you standing up for these victims.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: I’m concerned about when I saw the data on domestic abuse.
Finally, Governor, a lot has happened since we last spoke in the race. A lot has happened in the race for New York City Mayor. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced he’s running. What are your thoughts about the kind of leaders New Yorkers should be looking toward at this moment?
Governor Hochul: They should be looking for somebody who will work with the Governor. Now, that has not always been the practice, as you’ve seen historically.
I worked with Bill de Blasio in the end of his term. I worked with Eric Adams. We don’t need the conflict that has historically defined the relationship, because you know who gets hurt when the Governor and the Mayor are fighting? The people of New York. I represent 8.3 million New York City residents as well.
And that’s why I focused on public safety, paying for overtime on the overnight subway trains so people feel safer. Also, $1 billion to build more housing. I want to keep doing this, but I need someone who’s not looking to be at war with the Governor, who will actually be a partner. So that’s all I’m looking for, and I’ll work with anybody, as long as they want to focus on the agenda that I have put forth that is for New York City residents.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Does that mean late in the primary you may make an endorsement?
Governor Hochul: I am not endorsing in this. I do not vote in this great city, although I live here three, four days a week, and I will not be making an endorsement.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: But you want someone that will work with the Governor?
Governor Hochul: Someone who’s smart enough to know to work with me, because otherwise, it won’t be fun.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: And we’ll have to figure out who we think you might best work with.
Governor Hochul: Get me a real partner.
Reverend Al Sharpton, MSNBC: Thank you for being with us, Governor Kathy Hochul of New York.
SPECIAL REPORT:By Peter Cronau for Declassified Australia
Australia is caught in a jam, between an assertive American ally and a bold Chinese trading partner. America is accelerating its pivot to the Indo-Pacific, building up its fighting forces and expanding its military bases.
As Australia tries to navigate a pathway between America’s and Australia’s national interests, sometimes Australia’s national interest seems to submerge out of view.
Admiral David Johnston, the Chief of the Australia’s Defence Force, is steering this ship as China flexes its muscle sending a small warship flotilla south to circumnavigate the continent.
He has admitted that the first the Defence Force heard of a live-fire exercise by the three Chinese Navy ships sailing in the South Pacific east of Australia on February 21, was a phone call from the civilian Airservices Australia.
“The absence of any advance notice to Australian authorities was a concern, notably, that the limited notice provided by the PLA could have unnecessarily increased the risk to aircraft and vessels in the area,” Johnston told Senate Estimates .
Johnston was pressed to clarify how Defence first came to know of the live-fire drill: “Is it the case that Defence was only notified, via Virgin and Airservices Australia, 28 minutes [sic] after the firing window commenced?”
To this, Admiral Johnston replied: “Yes.”
If it happened as stated by the Admiral — that a live-fire exercise by the Chinese ships was undertaken and a warning notice was transmitted from the Chinese ships, all without being detected by Australian defence and surveillance assets — this is a defence failure of considerable significance.
Sources with knowledge of Defence spoken to by Declassified Australia say that this is either a failure of surveillance, or a failure of communication, or even more far-reaching, a failure of US alliance cooperation.
And from the very start the official facts became slippery.
Our latest investigation –
AUSTRALIA’S DEFENCE: NAVIGATING US-CHINA TENSIONS
We investigate a significant intelligence failure to detect live-firing by Chinese warships near Australia, has exposed Defence weaknesses, and the fact that when it counts, we are all alone.
— Declassified Australia (@DeclassifiedAus) March 7, 2025
What did they know and when did they know it The first information passed on to Defence by Airservices Australia came from the pilot of a Virgin passenger jet passing overhead the flotilla in the Tasman Sea that had picked up the Chinese Navy VHF radio notification of an impending live-fire exercise.
The radio transmission had advised the window for the live-fire drill commenced at 9.30am and would conclude at 3pm.
We know this from testimony given to Senate Estimates by the head of Airservices Australia. He said Airservices was notified at 9.58am by an aviation control tower informed by the Virgin pilot. Two minutes later Airservices issued a “hazard alert” to commercial airlines in the area.
The Headquarters of the Defence Force’s Joint Operations Command (HJOC), at Bungendore 30km east of Canberra, was then notified about the drill by Airservices at 10.08am, 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
When questioned a few days later, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to try to cover for Defence’s apparent failure to detect the live-fire drill or the advisory transmission.
“At around the same time, there were two areas of notification. One was from the New Zealand vessels that were tailing . .. the [Chinese] vessels in the area by both sea and air,” Albanese stated. “So that occurred and at the same time through the channels that occur when something like this is occurring, Airservices got notified as well.”
But the New Zealand Defence Force had not notified Defence “at the same time”. In fact it was not until 11.01am that an alert was received by Defence from the New Zealand Defence Force — 53 minutes after Defence HQ was told by Airservices and an hour and a half after the drill window had begun.
The Chinese Navy’s stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, sailing south in the Coral Sea on February 15, 2025, in a photograph taken from a RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane. Image: Royal Australian Air Force/Declassified Australia
Defence Minister Richard Marles later in a round-about way admitted on ABC Radio that it wasn’t the New Zealanders who informed Australia first: “Well, to be clear, we weren’t notified by China. I mean, we became aware of this during the course of the day.
“What China did was put out a notification that it was intending to engage in live firing. By that I mean a broadcast that was picked up by airlines or literally planes that were commercial planes that were flying across the Tasman.”
Later the Chinese Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, told ABC that two live-fire training drills were carried out at sea on February 21 and 22, in accordance with international law and “after repeatedly issuing safety notices in advance”.
Eyes and ears on ‘every move’ It was expected the Chinese-navy flotilla would end its three week voyage around Australia on March 7, after a circumnavigation of the continent. That is not before finally passing at some distance the newly acquired US-UK nuclear submarine base at HMAS Stirling near Perth and the powerful US communications and surveillance base at North West Cape.
Just as Australia spies on China to develop intelligence and targeting for a potential US war, China responds in kind, collecting data on US military and intelligence bases and facilities in Australia, as future targets should hostilities commence.
The presence of the Chinese Navy ships that headed into the northern and eastern seas around Australia attracted the attention of the Defence Department ever since they first set off south through the Mindoro Strait in the Philippines and through the Indonesian archipelago from the South China Sea on February 3.
“We are keeping a close watch on them and we will be making sure that we watch every move,” Marles stated in the week before the live-fire incident.
“Just as they have a right to be in international waters . . . we have a right to be prudent and to make sure that we are surveilling them, which is what we are doing.”
Around 3500 km to the north, a week into the Chinese ships’ voyage, a spy flight by an RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane on February 11, in a disputed area of the South China Sea south of China’s Hainan Island, was warned off by a Chinese J-16 fighter jet.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Australian protests claiming the Australian aircraft “deliberately intruded” into China’s claimed territorial airspace around the Paracel Islands without China’s permission, thereby “infringing on China’s sovereignty and endangering China’s national security”.
Australia criticised the Chinese manoeuvre, defending the Australian flight saying it was “exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace”.
Two days after the incident, the three Chinese ships on their way to Australian waters were taking different routes in beginning their own “right to freedom of navigation” in international waters off the Australian coast. The three ships formed up their mini flotilla in the Coral Sea as they turned south paralleling the Australian eastern coastline outside of territorial waters, and sometimes within Australia’s 200-nautical-mile (370 km) Exclusive Economic Zone.
“Defence always monitors foreign military activity in proximity to Australia. This includes the Peoples Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) Task Group.” Admiral Johnston told Senate Estimates.
“We have been monitoring the movement of the Task Group through its transit through Southeast Asia and we have observed the Task Group as it has come south through that region.”
The Task Group was made up of a modern stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, the frigate Hengyang, and the Weishanhu, a 20,500 tonne supply ship carrying fuel, fresh water, cargo and ammunition. The Hengyang moved eastwards through the Torres Strait, while the Zunyi and Weishanhu passed south near Bougainville and Solomon Islands, meeting in the Coral Sea.
This map indicates the routes taken by the three Chinese Navy ships on their “right to freedom of navigation” voyage in international waters circumnavigating Australia, with dates of way points indicated — from 3 February till 6 March 2025. Distances and locations are approximate. Image: Weibo/Declassified Australia
As the Chinese ships moved near northern Australia and through the Coral Sea heading further south, the Defence Department deployed Navy and Air Force assets to watch over the ships. These included various RAN warships including the frigate HMAS Arunta and a RAAF P-8A Poseidon intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance plane.
With unconfirmed reports a Chinese nuclear submarine may also be accompanying the surface ships, the monitoring may have also included one of the RAN’s Collins-class submarines, with their active range of sonar, radar and radio monitoring – however it is uncertain whether one was able to be made available from the fleet.
“From the point of time the first of the vessels entered into our more immediate region, we have been conducting active surveillance of their activities,” the Defence chief confirmed.
As the Chinese ships moved into the southern Tasman Sea, New Zealand navy ships joined in the monitoring alongside Australia’s Navy and Air Force.
The range of signals intelligence (SIGINT) that theoretically can be intercepted emanating from a naval ship at sea includes encrypted data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, aerial drone data and communications, as well as data of radar, gunnery, and weapon launches.
There are a number of surveillance facilities in Australia that would have been able to be directed at the Chinese ships.
Australian Signals Directorate’s (ASD) Shoal Bay Receiving Station outside of Darwin, picks up transmissions and data emanating from radio signals and satellite communications from Australia’s near north region. ASD’s Cocos Islands receiving station in the mid-Indian ocean would have been available too.
The Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) over-the-horizon radar network, spread across northern Australia, is an early warning system that monitors aircraft and ship movements across Australia’s north-western, northern, and north-eastern ocean areas — but its range off the eastern coast is not thought to presently reach further south than the sea off Mackay on the Queensland coast.
Of land-based surveillance facilities, it is the American Pine Gap base that is believed to have the best capability of intercepting the ship’s radio communications in the Tasman Sea.
Enter, Pine Gap and the Americans The US satellite surveillance base at Pine Gap in Central Australia is a US and Australian jointly-run satellite ground station. It is regarded as the most important such American satellite base outside of the USA.
The spy base – Joint Defence Facility Pine Gap (JDFPG) – showing the north-eastern corner of the huge base with some 18 of the base’s now 45 satellite dishes and covered radomes visible. Image: Felicity Ruby/Declassified Australia
The role of ASD in supporting the extensive US surveillance mission against China is increasingly valued by Australia’s large Five Eyes alliance partner.
A Top Secret ‘Information Paper’, titled “NSA Intelligence Relationship with Australia”, leaked from the National Security Agency (NSA) by Edward Snowden and published by ABC’s Background Briefing, spells out the “close collaboration” between the NSA and ASD, in particular on China:
“Increased emphasis on China will not only help ensure the security of Australia, but also synergize with the U.S. in its renewed emphasis on Asia and the Pacific . . . Australia’s overall intelligence effort on China, as a target, is already significant and will increase.”
The Pine Gap base, as further revealed in 2023 by Declassified Australia, is being used to collect signals intelligence and other data from the Israeli battlefield of Gaza, and also Ukraine and other global hotspots within view of the US spy satellites.
It’s recently had a significant expansion (reported by this author in The Saturday Paper) which has seen its total of satellite dishes and radomes rapidly increase in just a few years from 35 to 45 to accommodate new heightened-capability surveillance satellites.
Pine Gap base collects an enormous range and quantity of intelligence and data from thermal imaging satellites, photographic reconnaissance satellites, and signals intelligence (SIGINT) satellites, as expert researchers Des Ball, Bill Robinson and Richard Tanter of the Nautilus Institute have detailed.
These SIGINT satellites intercept electronic communications and signals from ground-based sources, such as radio communications, telemetry, radar signals, satellite communications, microwave emissions, mobile phone signals, and geolocation data.
Alliance priorities The US’s SIGINT satellites have a capability to detect and receive signals from VHF radio transmissions on or near the earth’s surface, but they need to be tasked to do so and appropriately targeted on the source of the transmission.
For the Pine Gap base to intercept VHF radio signals from the Chinese Navy ships, the base would have needed to specifically realign one of those SIGINT satellites to provide coverage of the VHF signals in the Tasman Sea at the time of the Chinese ships’ passage. It is not known publicly if they did this, but they certainly have that capability.
However, it is not only the VHF radio transmission that would have carried information about the live-firing exercise.
Pine Gap would be able to monitor a range of other SIGINT transmissions from the Chinese ships. Details of the planning and preparations for the live-firing exercise would almost certainly have been transmitted over data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, and even in the data of radar and gunnery operations.
But it is here that there is another possibility for the failure.
The Pine Gap base was built and exists to serve the national interests of the United States. The tasking of the surveillance satellites in range of Pine Gap base is generally not set by Australia, but is directed by United States’ agencies, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) together with the US Defense Department, the National Security Agency (NSA), and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Australia has learnt over time that US priorities may not be the same as Australia’s.
Australian defence and intelligence services can request surveillance tasks to be added to the schedule, and would have been expected to have done so in order to target the southern leg of the Chinese Navy ships’ voyage, when the ships were out of the range of the JORN network.
The military demands for satellite time can be excessive in times of heightened global conflict, as is the case now.
Whether the Pine Gap base was devoting sufficient surveillance resources to monitoring the Chinese Navy ships, due to United States’ priorities in Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, North Korea, and to our north in the South China Sea, is a relevant question.
It can only be answered now by a formal government inquiry into what went on — preferably held in public by a parliamentary committee or separately commissioned inquiry. The sovereign defence of Australia failed in this incident and lessons need to be learned.
Who knew and when did they know If the Pine Gap base had been monitoring the VHF radio band and heard the Chinese Navy live-fire alert, or had been monitoring other SIGINT transmissions to discover the live-fire drill, the normal procedure would be for the active surveillance team to inform a number of levels of senior officers, a former Defence official familiar with the process told Declassified Australia.
Inside an operations room at the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra. Image: ADF/Declassified Australia
Expected to be included in the information chain are the Australian Deputy-Chief of Facility at the US base, NSA liaison staff at the base, the Australian Signals Directorate head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra, the Defence Force’s Headquarters Joint Operations Command, in Bungendore, and the Chief of the Defence Force. From there the Defence Minister’s office would need to have been informed.
As has been reported in media interviews and in testimony to the Senate Estimates hearings, it has been stated that Defence was not informed of the Chinese ships’ live-firing alert until a full 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
The former Defence official told Declassified Australia it is vital the reason for the failure to detect the live-firing in a timely fashion is ascertained.
Either the Australian Defence Force and US Pine Gap base were not effectively actively monitoring the Chinese flotilla at this time — and the reasons for that need to be examined — or they were, but the information gathered was somewhere stalled and not passed on to correct channels.
If the evidence so far tendered by the Defence chief and the Minister is true, and it was not informed of the drill by any of its intelligence or surveillance assets before that phone call from Airservices Australia, the implications need to be seriously addressed.
A final word In just a couple of weeks the whole Defence environment for Australia has changed, for the worse.
The US military announces a drawdown in Europe and a new pivot to the Indo-Pacific. China shows Australia it can do tit-for-tat “navigational freedom” voyages close to the Australian coast. US intelligence support is withdrawn from Ukraine during the war. Australia discovers the AUKUS submarines’ arrival looks even more remote. The prime minister confuses the limited cover provided by the ANZUS treaty.
Meanwhile, the US militarisation of Australia’s north continues at pace. At the same time a senior Pentagon official pressures Australia to massively increase defence spending. And now, the country’s defence intelligence system has experienced an unexplained major failure.
Australia, it seems, is adrift in a sea of unpredictable global events and changing alliance priorities.
Peter Cronau is an award-winning, investigative journalist, writer, and film-maker. His documentary, The Base: Pine Gap’s Role in US Warfighting, was broadcast on Australian ABC Radio National and featured on ABC News. He produced and directed the documentary film Drawing the Line, revealing details of Australian spying in East Timor, on ABC TV’s premier investigative programme Four Corners. He won the Gold Walkley Award in 2007 for a report he produced on an outbreak of political violence in East Timor. This article was first published by Declassified Australia and is republished here with the author’s permission.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL6
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035.
…Bunting
SEL6
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035.
…Bunting
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW6 WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z – 170500Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30WNW RIC/RICHMOND VA/ – 20ESE FAY/FAYETTEVILLE NC/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /26WNW RIC – 46NW ILM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT…LON 37667662 34847741 34847969 37667901
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU6.
Watch 56 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (10%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (60%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
This morning, the Trump Administration took to the TV networks to make clear to the country and world that American strength is back – and no longer will terrorist attacks on U.S. troops and vital international commerce be tolerated.
Here’s what you missed:
President Trump on Full Measure
On securing the border: “You just needed a new president … I said, ‘close the border’ — and they closed the border.”
On tariffs: “We have companies moving into the United States at levels that has never been seen before.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Face the Nation
On Houthi terrorist attacks in the Red Sea: “In the last 18 months, the Houthis have struck or attacked … the U.S. Navy 174 times, and 145 times, they’ve attacked commercial shipping. So, we basically have a band of pirates with guided precision anti-ship weaponry exacting a toll system in one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. That’s just not sustainable.”
On revoking visas for terrorist sympathizers: “When you apply to enter the United States and you get a visa, you are a guest … If you tell us when you apply for a visa, ‘I’m coming to the U.S. to participate in pro-Hamas events,’ that runs counter to the foreign policy interest of the United States … If you had told us you were going to do that, we never would have given you the visa.”
On tariffs: “I understand why these countries don’t like it — because the status quo of trade is good for them. It benefits them … We are going to set a new status quo … We have de-industrialized the United States of America. There are things we can no longer make.”
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Sunday Morning Futures
On U.S. strikes against Houthi terrorists: “An era of peace through strength is back … This campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence … The minute the Houthis say ‘we’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”
On President Trump’s agenda: “Shipbuilding, long-range munitions, hypersonics, long-range drones, a Golden Dome, southern border – the president has laid out very clearly his agenda to rebuild the U.S. military … We have revived the warrior ethos.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on This Week
On U.S. strikes against Houthi terrorists: “These were not pinprick, back and forth, what ultimately proved to be feckless attacks. This was an overwhelming response that actually targeted multiple Houthi leaders and took them out.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on Fox News Sunday
On negotiations for peace in Ukraine: “As both President Putin and Zelensky said on our first call just a few weeks ago, only President Trump could drive this to an end … We know who we’re dealing with on all sides.”
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent on Meet the Press
On President Trump’s economic agenda: “One week does not the market make… It would have been very easy for us to come in, run these reckless policies that have been happening before. We’ve got these large government deficits… We are bringing those down in a responsible way.”
On tariffs: “Chinese manufacturers will eat the price … I believe that the currency adjusts … If we’re de-regulating, if we’re getting energy prices down, then if we look across the spectrum, Americans will realize lower prices and better affordability.”
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on State of the Union
On negotiations to end the war in Ukraine: “Before this visit, there was another visit, and before that visit, the two sides were miles apart … The two sides are, today, a lot closer … We’ve narrowed the differences.”
On when a deal to end the war could be possible: “The president uses the timeframe weeks — and I don’t disagree with him. I am really hopeful that we’re going to see some real progress here.”
On dealing with Hamas: “What happened with the Houthis yesterday, what happened with our strike, ought to inform as to where we stand with the regard to terrorism and our tolerance level for terrorist actions — and I would encourage Hamas to get much more sensible.”
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Sunday Morning Futures
On securing our homeland: “The president signed a proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act against Tren de Aragua members who have invaded our country … The president invoked this authority to deport nearly 300 of them who are now in El Salvador, where they will be behind bars where they belong.”
On activist legal challenges: “President Trump is not shy of resistance … Clearly, there are left-wing activists who sit behind a bench in a courthouse who don’t like this president and his policies, but the fact is everything President Trump is doing is within his executive authority.”
The cryosphere refers to the frozen water features of our planet, including snow, glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice, and permafrost. Water resources and hazards that threaten human life, infrastructure, and commerce are influenced by the cryosphere.
USGS cryospheric research provides scientific insight and unbiased data to our stakeholders and partners allowing them to:
Develop water resources strategies.
Plan for hazards like snow avalanches, flooding, drought, landslides, and coastal erosion.
Develop resource plans for areas affected by snow, ice, or glaciers such as alpine, Arctic, and coastal ecosystems.
A recently published USGS fact sheet describes the importance of the cryosphere and highlights USGS research that benefits various partner agencies and the public. The factsheet also describes how stakeholders use USGS data and how local communities can benefit from USGS cryospheric science. For example, high-elevation weather station data and field observations in Glacier National Park, Montana are used to forecast snow avalanches that affect park roads, highways, and railroad lines.
Click on the images below to learn more about two of the research efforts highlighted in the cryosphere fact sheet and how this research is used to protect transportation corridors, assist with water resource planning, and contribute to global assessments of glacier change.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll.
Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down two), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 16% for all Others (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, this would be about a 50–50 tie.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point to -10, while Peter Dutton’s slid four points to -12. In the last two months, Albanese is up eight and Dutton down eight. It’s the first time since May 2024 that Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton in this poll.
Albanese led Dutton by 45.9–42.5 as preferred PM, his best lead in this poll since last September. By 42–40, respondents thought Dutton better suited to negotiate with US President Donald Trump than Albanese (47–36 in November).
The Coalition leads on important issues, but Labor has gained seven points on economic management and three points on cost of living since February.
There has been improvement for Labor across a range of polls in the last few weeks, and the graph below has Labor leads in three of the last five national polls (two YouGovs and a Morgan), with the Coalition still ahead in Newspoll and Freshwater.
In analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate, Labor now leads by 50.5–49.5 using 2022 election flows, while it’s a 50–50 tie adjusting for a likely pro-Coalition shift in One Nation preferences.
Last Wednesday Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US, including on Australia. I believe this will assist Labor as the tariff imposition will appear unjustified to most Australians, and the Coalition is the more pro-Trump party. If the stock market continues to fall, this will undermine support for Trump’s economic agenda.
Trump has been threatening Canada with tariffs for much longer than Australia, and the centre-left governing Liberals have surged back in the polls to a near-tie with the Conservatives from over 20 points behind, and have taken the lead since Mark Carney’s March 9 election as Liberal leader.
Labor retains lead in YouGov
A national YouGov poll, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,526, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the February 28 to March 6 YouGov poll. YouGov is conducting weekly polls, and the previous poll was the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and by 2022 flows Labor would have a lead above 52–48.
Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -6, with 49% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied, while Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -6. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 45–39.
Since the first weekly YouGov poll in late February, Albanese has gained six points on net approval while Dutton has slid four points. This is the first time Dutton has not had a better net approval than Albanese in YouGov since March 2024.
On the ongoing conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 69% of Australians thought we should stand with Ukraine President Zelensky, while 31% wanted us to stand with Trump.
Labor regains lead in Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted March 3–9 from a sample of 1,719, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 24 to March 2 poll. This is Labor’s second lead in the last three Morgan polls, after they had trailed in this poll since November.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 30% Labor (up 1.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up one), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 52–48, a two-point gain for Labor.
By 51.5–33, respondents said the country was going in the wrong direction (52–31.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 0.8 points to 86.9.
Poll of teal-held seats has the teals struggling
Freshwater took a poll for the News Corporation tabloids of six seats held by teal independents. These are Curtin in WA, Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria and Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth in NSW. The poll was conducted March 5–7 from an overall sample of 830.
Across the six seats polled, the Liberals had a 51–49 lead, representing a 5% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 election. On these figures, the Liberals would gain four of these teal seats (Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar).
Primary votes were 41% Liberals (up two since 2022), 33% teals (steady), 7% Labor (down six), 7% Greens (down two) and 12% others (up six). Albanese and Dutton were tied at 39–39 on better PM. By 47–42, respondents opposed their local MP backing an Albanese Labor minority government.
The YouGov MRP poll that was conducted between late January and mid-February from a sample of over 40,000 had all the teals holding their seats. At the March 8 Western Australian election, swings to the Liberals were lowest in affluent Perth seats.
WA election late counting
With 70% of enrolled voters counted for the WA election, the ABC is calling 43 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, six for the Liberals, four for the Nationals and six seats remain undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 47 seats, with the Liberals and Nationals ahead in six seats each.
On election night, it had appeared likely that an independent would win Labor-held Fremantle. However, the independent has performed badly on absent and postal votes, and Labor will retain.
In the upper house, all 37 seats are elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences, and a quota for election is just 2.63%. With 63% of enrolled counted, Labor has 15.8 quotas, the Liberals 10.5, the Greens 4.1, the Nationals 2.1, One Nation 1.35, Legalise Cannabis and the Australian Christians 1.0 each, an independent group 0.48 and Animal Justice 0.43.
On current figures, Labor will win 16 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and the Christians one each and two seats are unclear (Liberals, independent group and Animal Justice contesting). Counting of absents in the lower house has hurt the Liberals, so their vote is likely to drop further. Labor and the Greens will have a combined upper house majority.
Liberals hold Port Macquarie at NSW byelection
A byelection occurred on Saturday in the New South Wales Liberal-held state seat of Port Macquarie. Labor did not contest after finishing third behind the Nationals and Liberals at the 2023 NSW election with 19.2%.
With 59% of enrolled counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the Liberals will defeat the Nationals by 52.8–47.2, a 7.9% swing to the Nationals since 2023. Current primary votes are 34.2% Liberals (down 4.1%), 31.2% Nationals (up 5.5%), 12.8% for an independent (new), 10.7% Greens (up 3.7%) and 7.9% Legalise Cannabis (up 3.4%).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Greenpeace Statement: The deep sea mining industry is crumbling and desperate
Source:Greenpeace
The30th Session of the International Seabed Authority, which starts today in Kingston, Jamaica, is the first under the new Secretary-General Leticia Carvalho, a scientist whose appointment brings an opportunity to reset the ISA’s focus away from prioritising deep sea mining industry interests and towards its mandate of protecting the seabed for all.[1][2]
In stark contrast with Carvalho’s science-driven approach, delegates are being forced to address The Metals Company’s (TMC) threat to submit the world’s first ever deep sea mining application for the international seabed in June without any rules and regulations in place.[3] TMC are seeking regulatory certainty from governments at this meeting,calling on governments to deliver a pathway to greenlight the start of deep sea miningdespite growing headwinds.
Greenpeace International campaigner Louisa Casson, who is attending the meeting, said: “The deep sea mining industry is crumbling and resorting to increasingly desperate tactics as they lose support from governments and investors. The last weeks have repeatedly shown that companies are failing to live up to their hype and downsizing plans before they’ve even started. There’s never been a better time for governments to take decisive action to protect the ocean from this faltering, risky industry.”
Earlier this year, in a further sign of a faltering industry, TMC gave up one third of their exploration areas in the north-eastern Pacific Ocean. [5]
Alongside the threat of the first-ever commercial mining application, deep sea mining contractors have senta joint letter to the ISA Councilcomplaining they have spent US$2 billion, yet governments have not finalised the Mining Code. Indigenous representatives attending the ISAchallenged the letter.
Louisa Casson added: “Deep sea mining companies seem to be confused about the role of the ISA. Governments are not gathered here to protect corporate interests but to co-operate on how to preserve the ocean for future generations. The only way to responsibly respond to these dangerous threats is by putting a moratorium in place.”
Greenpeace Aotearoa seabed mining campaigner Juressa Lee says: “Wannabe miners like Trans-Tasman Resources also want to plunder the ocean here in Aotearoa, encouraged by the Luxon government’s reckless fast-track process. The threat of seabed mining in Aotearoa is imminent and seabed miners around the world are watching closely what happens here. If TTR is given the go-ahead, it will encourage wannabe miners like TMC to push their application to start deep sea mining in the Pacific.”
Thirty-two governments have voiced opposition to the start of deep sea mining, calling for a moratorium at the International Seabed Authority in 2025.
[1]Leticia Carvalho’s inaugural statement:“We will embark on a new era defined by collaboration, equity, inclusiveness, transparency, accountability, effectiveness and sustainability-values that will guide our collective efforts to ensure ISA remains a trusted steward of the ocean […] Together, we must ensure that the ISA embodies the spirit of multilateral cooperation, serving as a model for transparent, inclusive and science-driven governance.”
[5] The company’s financial filings show that the company’s subsidiary DeepGreen Engineering Pte Ltd has ended its services agreement with Kiribati-sponsored Marawa, which gave TMC exclusive exploration rights to an area covering 74,990 square kilometres in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, the area of international seabed targeted for deep sea mining.https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1798562/000110465924119467/tmc-20240930x10q.htm
NAB Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Andrew Irvine today announced changes to the bank’s Executive Leadership Team.
Andrew Auerbach, an experienced business and wealth banker from Canada, will join NAB as Group Executive, Business & Private Banking (B&PB) on 16 June;
Rachel Slade, currently Group Executive B&PB, will leave NAB on 1 July, allowing for a transition period and to work with Mr Irvine as a senior adviser; and
Nathan Goonan has resigned as Group Chief Financial Officer (CFO). He will leave NAB later this year after meeting his contractual obligations.
Mr Irvine said transition arrangements from Tuesday 18 March would be:
Michael Saadie, currently Executive, Private Wealth and CEO of JB Were, acting as Group Executive B&PB until Mr Auerbach starts at NAB;
Shaun Dooley, currently Group Chief Risk Officer (CRO), acting as Group CFO while NAB recruits a new Group CFO; and
Peter Whitelaw, currently Executive, Chief Resilience Risk Officer, acting as Group CRO.
“NAB has good business momentum and is executing a clear strategy based on being better for customers and our colleagues. We have great talent and leadership across the bank and I’m confident we will maintain momentum while we embed these changes,” Mr Irvine said.
Mr Auerbach spent more than 21 years in senior executive roles with the Bank of Montreal (BMO) in Canada, including alongside Mr Irvine. During his career he has worked closely with business owners and entrepreneurs delivering strong customer and commercial outcomes. On leaving BMO, in 2023 he co-founded and is CEO of Canadian wealth management firm Delisle Advisory Group. He will end his involvement with Delisle before joining NAB.
“Andrew will be a tremendous addition to the NAB team and a strong leader for our leading business bank as we continue to execute our strategy and drive performance in a competitive environment. In particular, he brings a strong track record of improving both customer experiences and financial performance,” Mr Irvine said.
Ms Slade joined NAB in 2017 and was appointed to the Executive Leadership Team in 2018 as Chief Customer Experience Officer, then Group Executive, Personal Banking in 2020. Ms Slade became Group Executive, B&PB last year when Mr Irvine became NAB Group CEO.
Mr Goonan has been with NAB for a total of 15 years in two periods, holding various executive roles. He joined the Executive Leadership Team in 2020 as Group Executive, Strategy & Innovation and was appointed Group CFO in 2023.
“Rachel and Nathan have been dedicated to NAB, very supportive of successive Group CEOs and focused on customers every day. I have appreciated their support in our time together and wish them well for the future,” Mr Irvine said.
Mr Auerbach’s appointment is subject to regulatory approvals.
March 16, 2025 – Gravenhurst, Ontario – Correctional Service Canada
On March 16, 2025, during a 1:45 p.m. count, staff members in the minimum-security unit at Beaver Creek Institution discovered that Rodney Cobb and Jeffry Parker were not accounted for.
The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) immediately contacted the Ontario Provincial Police, and a warrant for the inmates’ arrests was issued.
At around 2:50 p.m., Rodney Cobb and Jeffry Parker were apprehended by police. CSC will investigate the circumstances of this incident.
Ensuring the safety and security of institutions, staff, and public remains the highest priority in the operations of the federal correctional system.
Jefferson City — Today, Governor Mike Kehoe provided an update on Missouri’s recovery efforts following the devastating tornadoes that struck on March 14, leaving widespread destruction across 27 counties.
The storm has resulted in 12 confirmed fatalities, with one person still missing. Hundreds of homes, schools, and businesses have been either destroyed or severely damaged. At the height of the storm, more than 140,000 homes and businesses were without power, and 101 roads were closed due to debris, flooding, and structural damage. While significant progress has been made, approximately 47,000 customers remain without power as crews continue restoration efforts. The State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) also had reports of over 130 wildland fires on Friday, some of which damaged homes and structures.
“The scale of devastation across our state is staggering,” said Governor Kehoe. “While we grieve the lives of those lost, we are also focused on action—getting power restored, clearing debris, and ensuring our communities have the resources they need to recover. The strength and resilience of Missourians are already on display, and we will be with them every step of the way.”
Ahead of the storm on Friday, Governor Kehoe issued a State of Emergency declaration, which allowed first responders, road crews, and emergency management officials to move quickly. The Missouri’s State Emergency Operations Plan remains in effect.
Damage Assessments and Federal Support: SEMA regional coordinators continue working swiftly with local emergency managers to make initial damage assessments in preparation for a federal major disaster declaration request. To expedite the process, SEMA has shifted additional regional coordinators into the most heavily impacted areas of the state. SEMA staff are coordinating resource requests from local emergency managers for needed supplies, materials, and support services with sheltering, debris clearance, damage assessments, and other needs.
White House Coordination: Governor Kehoe has been in direct contact with the White House and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials, who have assured him they are closely monitoring the situation and are ready to assist as soon as Missouri request is submitted.
Governor Kehoe and state officials spent yesterday surveying some of the hardest-hit areas, including Wayne, Butler, and Jefferson counties. Wayne County alone saw six of the 12 reported fatalities, underscoring the storm’s devastating impact.
All levels of government are fully engaged, and recovery efforts continue across the state.
The Missouri State Highway Patrol (MSHP) and Missouri Department of Transportation (MODOT) crews have all been deployed to clear debris, reopen roadways, and ensure the safety of Missourians across all affected counties.
Utility companies, including investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative providers, are working around the clock to restore power.
Emergency shelters remain open in impacted areas, offering food, medical support, and temporary housing for displaced residents.
SEMA also continues to coordinate with volunteer and faith-based partners to identify needs and assist residents over the coming days and weeks. The American Red Cross of Missouri has opened shelters at the following locations for individuals and families that have been displaced or otherwise impacted:
Franklin County: Moose Lodge | 905 Highway 50, Union, MO 63084
Howell County: First United Methodist Church | 503 W Main St., West Plains, MO 65775
Jefferson County: St. David’s Catholic Church | 2334 Tenbrook Rd., Arnold, MO 63010
Phelps County: First Baptist Church | 801 N Cedar St., Rolla, MO 65401
Louis County: North County Rec Plex | 2577 Redman Avenue, St Louis MO 63136
Residents who have experienced damage to their homes, cars and property should contact their insurance company and document damage with photographs. Missourians with unmet needs are encouraged to contact United Way by dialing 2-1-1 or the American Red Cross at 1-800-733-2767.
overnor Kathy Hochul today announced that flags will be flown at half-staff in honor of former Congresswoman Nita Lowey beginning immediately and through sunset on March 17, 2025.
“I’m deeply saddened by the passing of my friend, former Representative Nita Lowey,” Governor Hochul said. “As a freshman member of Congress, Nita helped show me ropes as I was learning how to navigate Washington. She was a tireless fighter for the State of New York and never stopped working to deliver for the people of Westchester and Rockland.”
Former Congresswoman Lowey served for 32 years in the House of Representatives, representing parts of the Hudson Valley. She died on March 15 in Harrison, New York, and is survived by her husband of 64 years, Stephen Lowey; her children Dana, Jackie and Douglas; and eight grandchildren.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL4
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 51…WW 52…WW 53…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
…Gleason
SEL4
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 51…WW 52…WW 53…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
…Gleason
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW4 WW 54 TORNADO MD PA VA WV 161650Z – 162300Z AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 75N UNV/STATE COLLEGE PA/ – 10WSW SHD/STAUNTON VA/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /26NNE SLT – 58N LYH/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT…LON 41937707 38217833 38217981 41937862
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU4.
Watch 54 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
DENVER – Today, Governor Polis will celebrate Colorado Canada Friendship Day by raising the Canadian National Flag at the Colorado State Capitol, and in the evening, lighting up the Capitol with the Canadian white and red.
“From maple syrup to hockey players and much more, we in Colorado appreciate our friendship and close ties with Canada. Raising the Canadian flag today is symbolic of our friendship, showing that when we work together, even in challenging times, we grow our economy and make the people of both sovereign nations better off. I am grateful for our friends to the north, and look forward to annually celebrating Colorado Canada Friendship day,” said Governor Polis.
“Thank you, Governor Polis, for recognizing the strength of the Canada and Colorado relationship. Canadians appreciate your gesture today. I am proud to see Canada’s flag flying alongside Colorado’s at the State Capitol, which reaffirms our partnership, friendship, and alliance!” said Sylvain Fabi, Consul General of Canada in Denver.
In 2023, Colorado exported $1.8 billion in Colorado goods and produce to Canada, accounting for 18% of Colorado’s trade exports. Nearly a quarter of those exports were from Colorado beef, supporting our local hardworking farmers and ranchers. In the same year, 176,612 visitors traveled from Canada to enjoy Colorado, strengthening our tourism industry and supporting small businesses and our economy. Colorado is also home to 272 Canadian-owned companies employing 21,000 Colorado workers. The Capital will be lit red and white tonight to showcase. Colorado Canada friendship.
The Governor will also be hosting a Colorado Mexico Friendship Day. Details are forthcoming.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL3
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania West Virginia
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM until 400 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify as they move quickly northeastward late this morning and into the afternoon. Scattered damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. But, the environment will also support some threat for a few line-embedded tornadoes as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Franklin PA to 40 miles south southeast of Charleston WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 51…WW 52…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
…Gleason
SEL3
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania West Virginia
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM until 400 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify as they move quickly northeastward late this morning and into the afternoon. Scattered damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. But, the environment will also support some threat for a few line-embedded tornadoes as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Franklin PA to 40 miles south southeast of Charleston WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 51…WW 52…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
…Gleason
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW3 WW 53 TORNADO OH PA WV 161430Z – 162000Z AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30NW FKL/FRANKLIN PA/ – 40SSE CRW/CHARLESTON WV/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /20S ERI – 9WNW BKW/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT…LON 41687912 37828021 37828241 41688144
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU3.
Watch 53 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
The Presidency says it remains committed to building a relationship with the United States of America (USA), despite the “regrettable” recent expulsion of SA Ambassador to the US, Embrahim Rasool.
Rasool was expelled after US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, took to social media, X, to declare that Rasool was not welcome in the US.
“South Africa’s Ambassador to the United States is no longer welcome in our great country. We have nothing to discuss with him and so he is considered persona non grata” [person not welcome] (sic),” Rubio post reads on social media.
In a statement on Saturday, The Presidency noted the regrettable expulsion of Rasool and urged all relevant and impacted stakeholders to maintain the established diplomatic decorum in their engagement with the matter.
“South Africa remains committed to building a mutually beneficial relationship with the United States of America,” the President said. – SAnews.gov.za
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western University
A recent study has shown that the environmental and human mortality impacts of modern information technology — especially email infrastructure — are significant.(Shutterstock)
My recent study explored the environmental impact of lengthening email signatures, focusing specifically on two types of information: gender pronouns and land acknowledgements because both are relatively new additions to email signatures.
In both cases, the extra carbon emissions for each email for the extra characters is estimated and aggregated over the population that uses them.
The environmental consequences of minor digital habits are often overlooked. (Shutterstock)
The results showed that in Canada, where about 15 per cent of people include gender pronouns in emails, the resulting carbon emissions from this small change (three extra words) may contribute to the premature deaths of one person a year, according to the 1,000-ton rule.
The environmental harm and human mortality caused by this seemingly minor digital habit is evident. Large blocks of text like legal disclaimers and land acknowledgements cause even more harm. Images and logos, which contain even larger amounts of data, cause more emissions and deaths still.
Doing away with email signatures
Most of the content in email signatures is redundant, as we tend to email the same people repeatedly. The environmental and human cost of using email signatures clearly outweighs the benefits. One solution to this issue is to replace email signatures with a hyperlinked name to additional information.
Another simple way to increase efficiency and reduce emissions is by eliminating email signatures entirely, since emails already identify senders in the header. After all, we don’t sign our texts, so why do we feel the need to sign our emails?
If you receive an email with a long signature, you might consider asking the sender to switch to a hyperlink instead, or eliminate their signature all together.
Additionally, you can encourage others to use free, open-source ad blockers to reduce unnecessary data from ads while browsing or emailing. Ads, especially on websites, generate an enormous amount of unnecessary data and energy consumption.
While these steps may seem small on their own, collectively, they can make a significant difference in reducing digital waste and unnecessary emissions.
It also gives pause for the far more damaging impacts of other forms of digital communications, particularly email spam.
Already more than half of all emails are spam. (Shutterstock)
Spam accounts for over half of all emails and, despite having lower carbon emissions per email (since many are deleted without being opened), spam accounts for far more emissions-producing data. Beyond its environmental toll, spam also wastes the time of every email user.
In response, several proposals and laws have been put forward to reduce this digital waste, from including taxes on emails, opt-in or opt-out systems to even outlawing spam entirely. While these efforts are a step in the right direction, we all still suffer through an enormous amount of spam.
The environmental impact of our online habits is far larger than most realize, and as digital communication continues to evolve, we must consider its long-term consequences on the environment and human life. We should take the easy steps of cutting wasteful energy use in our communications and it can start with eliminating email signatures.
Joshua M. Pearce does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Yet, despite this widespread patriotism, some Canadians may have a relative or friend in the contrarian 10 per cent of citizens who welcome annexation.
From peacekeepers to politicians to ordinary civilians, I have seen how cognitive biases can cause rational, intelligent people to ignore valuable evidence, even at great peril.
Humans often react to unsettling evidence by denying, minimizing or re-interpreting the information to restore their cognitive ease. Everyone in a conflict-prone part of the world experiences cognitive distortions and denial at some point. Psychological security often overrides physical security.
The tricky part is that challenging a person’s denial can provoke defensiveness, even rage. But allowing denial to persist leaves them dangerously unprepared to face real-world threats.
On balance, the safer choice is to rip off these psychological Band-aids.
Denial through confirmation bias
Except for a small percentage of extremists, the 10 per cent who are in favour of American annexation are ordinary Canadians. What makes them different are two interrelated cognitive biases: confirmation bias and belief perseverance.
For Canadians who hold Trump in high esteem, acknowledging his threats creates cognitive dissonance. Some people find dissonance so distressing that it feels easier to reject or reinterpret the contrary information in a way that protects prior-held ideas and restores cognitive ease.
These confirmation biases allow the 10 per cent to redefine the word “annexation” to mean something else, such as peaceful political unification. That imagined definition turns Trump’s threat into a friendly proposal leading to greater prosperity and security.
That reinterpretation may reduce psychological distress, but it’s delusional.
Many of the 10 per cent are simply unaware of what “annexation” truly means, and could rationally change their position once they understand the facts. But a smaller subset of that group may reject the evidence entirely.
Belief perseverance causes some people to aggressively hold their original position, even when presented with disconfirming evidence.
While denial helps them feel safe in the moment, it also makes them dangerously unprepared to deal with real threats.
Denial through normalcy bias
Patriotic “elbows up” Canadians must also be wary of denial. For them, the issue is not identifying the threats, but comprehending their full implications.
Even among informed citizens, NATO, NORAD and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance are not easy to relate to. Trade wars show up on grocery bills, but these defence organizations keep peace in the background, which is harder to notice.
Canadians may intellectually understand that North American security is deteriorating, but that crisis may not seem as real as tariffs.
For the majority of Canadians who already take Trump’s threats seriously, the first step in countering the normalcy bias is to pay attention to new risks and fractures in existingsecurity co-operation.
There is no time to argue with people who remain cognitively confused. The majority of Canadians are ready to have a laser-focused discussion about the real security challenges on the horizon.
The good news is that Canada can fortify its security and deter threats in this perilous new world.
The rangeofoptions may not be as comfortable as the bygone era of friendly alliances and NATO supremacy. But through intelligentdebate, Canadians can develop realistic new approaches to national defence, and quickly.
Acceptance and adaptation are the keys to survival.
Aisha Ahmad receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stacy L. Lorenz, Vice Dean and Professor, Physical Education and History, Augustana Campus, University of Alberta
When Canadian ice hockey centre Connor McDavid scored in overtime to lead Canada to victory over the United States in the National Hockey League’s 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau posted on social media, “You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game.”
Since the 4 Nations Face-Off ended, hockey analogies and imagery continue to dominate the conversation around Canada-U.S. relations. This time the focus is on Gordie Howe (or “Mr. Hockey” as he was widely known), whose strategic use of elbows on the ice has become a political rallying cry for Canadians.
A CBC News report on ‘Elbows Up’ becoming a rallying cry against Trump.
In particular, Howe’s practice of keeping his “elbows up” in the corners to ward off belligerents on the opposing team has become a focal point for Canadians’ actions against Trump’s aggression.
“We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So the Americans, they should make no mistake: In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”
While it may be surprising to see such enthusiasm for an “elbows up” approach and for “dropping the gloves” as one would in a hockey fight, this kind of strategic employment of violence fits perfectly with Howe’s longstanding brand of hockey manhood.
“Mr. Elbows” and the “Bashful Basher”
Although Howe’s early nickname of “Mr. Elbows” has received the bulk of the public’s attention recently, his other moniker used extensively by the Detroit media during his first season in the NHL — the “Bashful Basher” — captures even more effectively the style of masculinity that Canadians are currently calling upon in their clash with Trump.
“Howe not only had proven himself an exceptionally promising rookie, but he also had established the fact that while he might be a malted milk devotee off the ice, he positively was no milk-sop on a hockey rink.”
Howe’s brand of violence was careful and calculated, rather than reckless or emotional. Even when he used his fists to batter an opponent — such as in his famous 1959 fight with New York Rangers enforcer Lou Fontinato — Howe presented himself as a reluctant and reasonable fighter who conformed to the idealized, manly “code” of hockey.
He resorted to fighting only to defend smaller teammates and to deter even more harmful forms of violence, such as stick attacks or overly aggressive hits. Far from a wild brawler, Howe was a calm protector, governed by a sense of honest accountability for his actions.
O’Reilly contrasts “the mild-mannered, smiling, innocent-faced Howe, the clean-cut All-Canadian-American boy” with his more ruthless counterpart: “The guy who excels with his elbows as weapons, a man who, his opponents say, is skilled with the illegal high stick and so devious that the officials often fail to see the offense.”
“When Howe gets knocked down, he looks like he doesn’t care. But when he’s getting up, he looks for the other guy’s number. A little later, the guy will have four stitches in his head.”
Howe’s strategic use of fighting also normalized the high level of violence in hockey by showing that it could be measured and purposeful, in accordance with the informal code of expectations that governed the game.
Although critics of fighting and violence have become more outspoken in recent years, these values remain integral to hockey culture at the highest level and an influential point of reference for what it means to be a “true” hockey fan and a patriotic Canadian.
In the current political climate, it is perhaps the title of the story that appeared in Life magazine in 1959 that resonates most clearly: “Don’t mess around with Gordie. Hockey’s tough guy (Lou Fontinato) discovers that the game’s best player (Gordie Howe) is a rough man in a fight.”
With their “elbows up,” Canadians are counting on a Gordie Howe-style response — rational, expert and effective — in a trade war with the United States that may just be getting started.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Across its nearly 250-year history, the United States has never had an official language. On March 1, U.S. President Donald Trump changed that when he signed an executive order designating English as the country’s sole official language. The order marks a fundamental rupture from the American goverment’s long-standing approach to languages.
“From the founding of our Republic, English has been used as our national language,” Trump’s order states. “It is in America’s best interest for the federal government to designate one — and only one — official language.”
This new order also revokes a language-access provision contained in an earlier executive order from 2000 that aimed to improve access to services for people with limited English. Federal agencies now seem to have no obligation to provide vital information in other languages.
Despite some reactions in the New York Times, Washington Post and elsewhere, it remains unclear whether Trump’s executive order will face legal or political challenges. Amid continual attacks from the Trump administration on established norms, this decree may pass with relatively little resistance, despite a deeper meaning that extends far beyond language.
Multilingual realities and monolingual fantasies
The U.S. has a long multilingual history, beginning with the hundreds of Indigenous languages indelibly linked to these lands. The secondary layer are colonial languages and their variants, including French in Louisiana and Spanish in the Southwest. In all historical periods, immigrant languages from around the world have added substantially to the linguistic mix that makes up the U.S.
Today, New York is one of world’s most linguistically diverse cities, with other U.S. coastal cities not far behind. According to data from the Census Bureau, one-fifth of all Americans can speak two or more languages. The social, economic and cognitive benefits of bilingualism are well-established, and there is no data to support the assertion that speaking more than one language threatens the integrity of the nation state.
A building in Jackson Heights, Queens, New York City, which hosts speakers of diverse South Asian languages and their associations, April 17, 2017. (Ross Perlin)
The March 1 executive order is a crowning achievement for the “English-only movement.” Trump has tapped directly into this sentiment and its xenophobic preoccupations, rooted in white fragility and white supremacy.
In 2015, during his first bid for the Oval Office, Trump reprimanded Jeb Bush, the bilingual former governor of Florida, during a televised debate, stating: “This is a country where we speak English, not Spanish.”
“We have languages coming into our country. We don’t have one instructor in our entire nation that can speak that language…These are languages — it’s the craziest thing — they have languages that nobody in this country has ever heard of. It’s a very horrible thing.”
Beyond the brazen untruths and intentional exaggerations, such statements only reflect weakness and fear. The March 1 executive order states that “a nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society.”
It is in fact a sign of strength that Americans have not needed such a mandate until now, effectively navigating their complex multilingual reality without top-down legislation.
English around the world
It’s instructive to compare the language policy of the U.S. with other settler colonial contexts where English is dominant.
In neighbouring Canada, the 1969 Official Languages Act grants equal status to English and French — two languages that were brought European migrants — and requires all federal institutions to provide services in both languages on request. Revealingly, only 50 years later did Canada finally pass an Indigenous Languages Act granting modest recognition to the original languages of the land.
While Australia’s constitution specifies no official language, the government promotes English as the “national language,” and then offers to translate some web pages into other languages.
Navigating the distinction between de facto and de jure, New Zealand has taken a more considered approach. Recognizing that English is unthreatened and secure, even without legal backing, New Zealand legislators have focused their attention elsewhere. Te reo Māori was granted official language status in 1987, followed by New Zealand Sign Language in 2006.
Even the colonial centre and origin point for the global spread of English, the United Kingdom assumes a nuanced position on language policy. Welsh and Irish have both received some official recognition, while in Scotland, the Bòrd na Gàidhlig continues to advocate for official recognition of Gaelic.
Principle and practice
Trump’s recent executive order is both practical and symbolic.
Practically, it remains unclear what the order means for Spanish in Puerto Rico, the Indigenous languages of Hawaii and Alaska — which have received official recognition — for American Sign Language and for all the multilingual communities that make up the nation.
Interpretation in courts, hospitals and schools is a fundamental human right. No one should be barred from accessing vital services simply because they don’t speak English, whether that’s when dealing with a judge, a doctor or a teacher. The consequences of government agencies abandoning their already limited efforts at translation and interpretation could have huge ramifications.
Symbolically, Trump’s order is red meat for his MAGA followers. Associating national integrity with the promotion of one language above others might seem to reflect American exceptionalism, but it in fact destroys the cultural and linguistic diversity that makes the U.S. exceptional.
Ironically, this executive order brings the U.S. into alignment with most of the world’s other nation-states — albeit not the ones that speak English as their first language — which seek to impose the standardized language of an ethnic majority on all of their citizens. The consequences can be both polarizing and homogenizing.
Most of the world’s people are resolutely multilingual and are only becoming more so. Americans will not stop speaking, writing and signing in languages other than English because of an executive order. The linguistic dynamism of the U.S. is essential to the country’s social fabric. It should be nurtured and defended.
Mark Turin receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Tokyo College, the University of Tokyo.
Ross Perlin has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Endowment for the Humanities.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nicole Rosen, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Language Interactions, University of Manitoba
United States President Donald Trump has recently been commenting on accents while meeting foreign leaders and taking questions from foreign journalists. Trump praised British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s “beautiful” accent, saying he would have been president 20 years ago if he’d had that accent.
What is a “beautiful” accent, and what makes one hard to understand? There is much evidence showing that opinions on language are not based in any objective standards of beauty or aesthetics, but rather on our attitudes about the people speaking them.
Accent attitudes reflect our biases
Consider long-standing attitudes regarding the southern American accent. Some might automatically assess an accent from Tennessee or Kentucky as sounding less smart than one from Michigan or California. However, there is no scientific relationship between accent and intelligence; these stereotypes are learned behaviour.
Research shows young children of about five or six, for example, do not discriminate between U.S. northern and southern accents. As they get older, they start to develop the same attitudes of the adults around them, and by age 10 they start to find that northern-accented speakers sound “smarter” and more “in charge” than southern-accented speakers.
“French, which had taken centuries to develop into a most subtle intricate form — the height of sophistication — was far too complex for these simple savages to learn. So they did their poor, primitive best and contrived a queer, simplified ‘pidgin’ French dialect of their own.”
It is quite clear this judgment is not based in scientific fact, but rather on racist attitudes toward Black people. Today, language attitudes may be more subtle in their racism or classism, but they persist, using our biases about a group of people to affect how we feel about their way of speaking.
When speakers are familiar with an accent or dialect, however, they use their social knowledge to make judgments about the esthetics, determining which is more pleasing than another. This means that it’s not always the actual phonetic aspects of the language that drive our preferences, but rather social knowledge about the people who speak with that accent that we are assessing.
In terms of foreign accents in particular, our native language shapes the way we categorize the sounds of other languages. When languages have unfamiliar sounds, our brains need a little more time to process the correspondences between the foreign accent and our own so we can accurately categorize the sounds in the foreign-accented speech. Understanding different accents is a skill that develops over time, and greater exposure to speakers with a particular accent helps us understand that accent more easily.
The attitude we have about foreign accents is affected by our social knowledge of a person, their accent and where they come from. Having more frequent and positive associations with people from a particular region will make us more likely to find the accent pleasing and worth deciphering. Our ability to understand reflects the cognitive load that our brain is put through in order to categorize the different sounds that we are hearing.
Putting these two together, it is easy to see how the historical prestige associated with European accents, as well as the political power of leaders like Emmanuel Macron of France, Starmer from the United Kingdom or Modi of India would be reflected in Trump’s positive attitude towards them.
Similarly, he might consider a foreign journalist’s position on the world stage to be far less worth doing the cognitive work necessary to understand them.
Fundamentally, there is no objective criteria for determining the “beauty” of someone’s accent. Our attitudes towards particular accents are often much more rooted in our biases and how we see others in our world.
Nicole Rosen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
By 2026, 4.4 million Ontarians — one in four residents — will lack access to family doctors. The crisis extends nationwide, with projections showing 9.6 million Canadians could be without a family physician by 2034. And our existing doctors are stretched thin, with the average family physician seeing 18 per cent fewer patients annually compared to a decade ago.
It’s mystifying why Canada still struggles with the question of whether a doctor licensed in one province should be automatically qualified to practice in others. In October 2023, federal, provincial and territorial health ministers committed to “advancing labour mobility” for health-care professionals.
The Atlantic provinces launched a multi-jurisdictional licensing system in May 2023, allowing doctors to practice in all four Atlantic provinces for an additional annual fee. However, this licence is not accepted outside of Atlantic Canada, and no other provinces have such agreements: current legislation requires separate licensing in each province.
All medical schools and training programs are accredited by the same, pan-Canadian processes based on common, and extensive, criteria. (Shutterstock)
Inter-provincial restrictions undermine the efforts of overworked physicians to arrange coverage for temporary leaves. Such breaks could significantly enhance doctors’ personal well-being and extend their longevity in practice, ultimately benefiting holistic patient care while boosting Canadians’ access to physicians.
Is there a legitimate rationale, grounded in differences in training or competence, for inter-provincial barriers?
Medical training in Canada
Canada has 17 excellent medical schools with campuses in nine provinces (soon expanding to 20 covering all provinces). Although curricula and learning schemes vary according to individual philosophies and available resources, all are united by a shared vision. These institutions strive to equip students with a core set of physician competencies, ensuring graduates excel based on common educational objectives.
Canadian medical schools are inter-connected and collaborative. They share their approaches, discuss educational innovations, and engage common challenges. Medical student societies participate in collaborative activities to support knowledge sharing in clinical education.
Graduates of Canadian medical schools face the same qualifying examinations, established by the Medical Council of Canada. Success in these exams is required for entry to practice in all provinces and territories. Graduates apply to the same postgraduate residency programs, which are pan-Canadian. A graduate of an Ontario school interested in a career in family medicine, for example, is free to apply to training programs in any province without prejudice.
Why are doctors with identical training and qualifications confined to practising in just one province or territory? (Shutterstock)
Those training programs operate under the guidance of national colleges that set pan-Canadian standards for training. All programs are expected to deliver the same training and meet the same standards, regardless of location. All medical schools and training programs are accredited by the same, pan-Canadian processes based on common, and extensive, criteria.
All this national commonality exists because (with some regional variability in prevalence) people are afflicted with similar medical problems wherever they reside. And so, the practice of medicine should be guided by consistent, high standards. Canadians, regardless of where they live in our country, deserve to be assured that their doctors are exceptionally well trained and qualified.
Provincial barriers
Why, then, are doctors with identical training and qualifications confined to practising in just one province or territory? The answer lies not in medical competence, but in bureaucracy. Despite national standards for training and qualification, the power to grant a licence rests with 13 separate provincial and territorial regulatory colleges. This fragmented system creates artificial barriers, limiting the mobility of our highly skilled physicians across Canada.
This is not to dismiss the important work of these provincial and territorial colleges. They are responsible for ensuring that the doctors working within their jurisdictions have completed appropriate training, achieved qualifications and maintained competence. Importantly, they are also responsible for investigating and assessing any potential breaches of competence or professionalism.
In calling for common pan-Canadian credentialing, the physician community is not suggesting the important role of provincial and territorial colleges be set aside or in any way diminished. Rather, those critical processes should be either centralized or shared reciprocally. Public protection from doctors who are disciplined or sanctioned can be accelerated through pan-Canadian licensure: the public could search physician sanctions through one online portal, not 13.
Regulation must be assessed against its purpose. If the purpose is public protection and advancing a high quality and equitable health-care system, then a doctor in good standing who lives and practises in Ontario should be able to take up emergency room shifts or cover a colleague’s practice in Manitoba without having to restart and reinvest in another lengthy, time-consuming and expensive registration process.
Pan-Canadian licensure can improve health-care access in underserved areas and increase flexibility for physicians. Canadian-trained doctors should be allowed to practice where they are qualified and needed, and that’s in Canada — all of it.
Neil Seeman, co-founder of Sutherland House Experts, is the publisher of “The Doctors We Need: Imagining a New Path for Physician Recruitment, Training, and Support” by Dr. Anthony Sanfilippo.
Anthony Sanfilippo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
